21 Sensitivity and Reliability Analysis of
21 Sensitivity and Reliability Analysis of
Haran Pragalath D.C†, Avadhoot Bhosale†, Robin Davis P‡ and Pradip Sarkar§
Department of Civil Engineering, NIT Rourkela, Odisha 769008, India
Abstract: Open Ground Storey (OGS) framed buildings where the ground storey is kept open without infill walls, mainly
to facilitate parking, is increasing commonly in urban areas. However, vulnerability of this type of buildings has been exposed
in past earthquakes. OGS buildings are conventionally designed by a bare frame analysis that ignores the stiffness of the infill
walls present in the upper storeys, but doing so underestimates the inter-storey drift (ISD) and thereby the force demand in
the ground storey columns. Therefore, a multiplication factor (MF) is introduced in various international codes to estimate
the design forces (bending moments and shear forces) in the ground storey columns. This study focuses on the seismic
performance of typical OGS buildings designed by means of MFs. The probabilistic seismic demand models, fragility curves,
reliability and cost indices for various frame models including bare frames and fully infilled frames are developed. It is found
that the MF scheme suggested by the Israel code is better than other international codes in terms of reliability and cost.
Keywords: open ground storey; seismic risk; multiplication factor; fragility curves; reliability index
(a) (b)
Fig. 1 Open ground storey building during 2001 Bhuj earthquake (www.nicee.org)
Table 1 Multiplication factors as per various codes and design details of the ground storey columns
VRW
Drastic reduction of infill in 1
VED
EC 8 (2003) 1.5 – 4.68
any storey
Note: Ki - Lateral stiffness of ith storey considered, R - Response reduction factor, ∆VRW – strength of infill in the storey above,
∑VED – sum of design lateral force in the storey
code-designed OGS buildings has not been adequately the global response of building subjected to a specified
addressed and their reliability incorporating uncertainties ground motion. Nonlinear time history analyses (N-LTH)
in structural properties and earthquake loading remains of the building response are performed for different
to be quantified. The goal of the present study is earthquakes, and the response is expressed in terms of
therefore to evaluate, in a probabilistic framework, the maximum inter- storey drift at any storey of the building.
comparative performance (seismic risk and reliability) Third part is the calculation of limit state probabilities
of various multiplication factors (MFs) suggested by of attaining a series of (increasingly severe) limit states,
selected international building codes. LSi, through the expression given in Eq. (1):
Seismic risk of the OGS buildings will be evaluated The conditional probability in Eq. (1) is denoted as
in terms of fragility curves and reliability indices, using the seismic fragility, FR(x). This conditional probability,
a simplified method reported by Ellingwood (2001). explicitly stated, is the probability of meeting or
The methodology is comprised of three parts. First part exceeding a specified level of damage, LS, given a
is the identification of the seismic hazard, P [A = a], ground motion which has a certain level of intensity, a.
described by the annual probabilities of specific levels This conditional probability is often assumed to follow
of earthquake motion. The seismic hazard at a site is a two parameter lognormal probability distribution
usually represented through a seismic hazard curve, (Cornell et al., 2002; Song and Ellingwood, 1999).
GA(x) which is a plot of P [A = a] versus the level of A point estimate of the limit state probability of state
earthquake motion (a) expressed in terms of PGA (Peak i can be obtained by convolving the fragility FR(x) with
Ground Acceleration). Second part is the evaluation of the derivative of the seismic hazard curve, GA(x), thus
No.2 Haran Pragalath D.C et al.: Multiplication factor for open ground storey buildings – a reliability based evaluation 285
pf 1 P LSi (3)
ln(d ) ln(aIM
2
i
b
)
D|IM (6)
where, βpf is the reliability index and φ ( ) represents the N 2
standard normal distribution.
where a(IM)b represents the mean inter-storey drift and
2.1 Seismic hazard analysis N is the number of building models. Details of the mean
ISD are discussed in Section 2.2.1. Dispersion in limit
The seismic hazard (GA) at a building site is displayed state capacities recommended by different standards and
through a complementary cumulative distribution literatures are not in agreement. ATC 58 (2012) suggests
function. The hazard function is the annual frequency that the dispersion in capacity, βc , depends on the
of motion intensity at or above a given level, x, to the building type and construction quality, so accordingly
intensity. Elementary seismic hazard analysis shows 0.10, 0.25 and 0.40 are recommended depending on
that at moderate to large values of ground acceleration, the quality of construction being good, fair and poor,
there is a logarithmic linear relation between annual respectively. Several studies (Wen et al., 2004; Satter
maximum earthquake ground or spectral acceleration, and Liel, 2010; Raghunandan et al., 2012; Meslem and
and the probability, GA(a), that specific values of D′Ayala, 2013) show that the dispersion in capacity, βc,
acceleration are exceeded. This relationship implies that is dependent on the damage states and the type of frames
GA is described by following an equation suggested by (infilled or bare) also. The value s of βc suggested by
Ellingwood (2001): a recent study by Meslem and D′Ayala (2013) are used
herein and shown in Table 2.
A fragility curve is obtained for each limit state.
GA ( x) 1 exp[( x / u ) k ] (4) The methodology adopted in this study has been used
by many researchers (Nielson, 2005; Rajeev and
in which u and k are parameters of the distribution. Tesfamariam, 2012; Davis et al., 2010).
Parameter k defines the slope of the hazard curve which, 2.2.1 Probabilistic seismic demand model (PSDM)
in turn, is related to the coefficient of variation (COV) in The present study uses a closed-form log-normal
annual maximum peak acceleration. expression for fragility computation. This expression
The seismic hazard curve for the north-east region requires a continuous function between the seismic
(Manipur) of India, which is one of most seismically demand (EDP) and the intensity measure (IM), popularly
active regions, developed by Pallav et al. (2012) and
shown in Fig. 2, is selected for the present study.
1
2.2 Development of fragility curves
Annual mean rate
of exceedance
0.1
The fragility function represents the probability
of exceedance of a selected engineering demand 0.01
parameter (EDP) for a selected structural limit state
(LS) for a specific ground motion intensity measure 0.001
(IM). The fragility curve represents the cumulative
probability distribution that indicates the probability that 0.0001
a component/system damage will be at least a certain 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
Peak ground acceleration (g)
level, as a function of a particular intensity measure. The
seismic fragility, FR(x) can be expressed in closed form Fig. 2 Seismic hazard curve of north east region, India (Pallav
using the following equation, et al., 2012)
286 EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND ENGINEERING VIBRATION Vol.15
Table 2 Dispersion in limit state capacity, βc the RC elements are carried out as per IS 456 (2000)
and detailed as per IS 13920 (1993). The earthquake
Damage state
Frame loading is considered as per Indian standards (IS 1893)
Immediate occupancy Near collapse to have similar design base shear for all the frames. As
Bare frame 0.15 0.26 the focus of the present study is on the values of MF
Infilled frame 0.18 0.38 and their implication on fragility and reliability, only
the MF factors are taken from the various codes. The
reinforcement design philosophy followed by various
known as Probabilistic Seismic Demand Model (PSDM), codes is only marginally different and therefore one of
which can be evaluated though cloud analysis of pairs the international codes, viz., Indian code, is chosen for
of values of the median inter-storey drift demand (EDP) that purpose.
and the corresponding peak ground acceleration (IM) In order to study the effect of MF values on the
obtained from N-LTH. As per 2000 SAC FEMA (Cornell probability of failure of OGS building, different MF
et al., 2002), the estimate of the median demand, EDP values suggested by selected international codes are
(SD), can be represented in a generalized form by a power considered. Fully infilled frames (FF) and bare frames
model as given in Eq. (7). (BF) are also considered in the study for comparison
which are designed without considering any MF (i.e.
MF = 1.0). The international codes considered in this
EDP a IM
b
(7) study are EC 8 (2003), Indian code (IS 1893, 2002),
Israel code (SI 413, 1995) and Bulgarian code (Bulgarian
where, a and b are the regression coefficients of the seismic code, 1987). Figure 3 shows the building frame
PSDM. The parameters ‘a’ and ‘b’ can be calculated by configurations such as bare frame (BF), fully infilled
the cloud analysis as discussed. frame (FF), OGS frame with MF equal to unity (OGS)
2.2.2 Performance limit states and OGS frames designed with MF suggested by different
Performance limit states define the capacity of codes. The OGS frames are designated according to the
the structure to withstand different levels of damage. name of the code chosen for MF. The design details the
The median inter-storey drift (ISD) limit states for columns of the two, four and six storey frames are listed
RC moment resisting frame structures that define the in Table 3(a), 3(b) and 3(c), respectively.
capacity of the structure at various performance levels
(SC) are suggested by Ghobarah (2000) and ASCE/SEI
41-06 (2007). Transient drift limits for RC frames as per 4 Nonlinear modelling approach
ASCE/SEI 41-06 (2007) are considered in the present
study as 1% and 4% for light repairable damage (IO) A series of nonlinear time history analyses (N-LTH)
and near collapse (CP) performance level, respectively. of RC frames have been performed. The Open System
for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (OpenSEES)
Laboratory tool developed by McKenna et al. (2014)
3 Frames considered is used for all analyses. Force-based nonlinear beam-
column element that consider the spread of plasticity
The building frames considered in the present study along the element is used for modelling the beams
are designed for the highest seismic zone of India (Zone and columns. Formulation of the fiber-based element
V with PGA of 0.36 g) as per Indian standards IS 1893 is explained in Lee and Mosalam (2004). Kunnath
(2002) considering medium soil conditions (N-value (2007) has studied the sensitivity due to the number
in the range 10 to 30). The characteristic strength of of integration points in each element and suggested
concrete and steel are taken as 25 MPa and 415 MPa, the use of five integration points, a practice followed
respectively. The buildings are assumed to be symmetric in the present study. The material models for concrete,
in plan, and hence a single plane frame is considered reinforcement steel and the infill masonry wall used in
to be representative of the building along one direction. the study are discussed in the following sections.
Typical bay width and column height in this study
are 5 m and 3.2 m, respectively, as observed from the 4.1 Concrete and steel constitutive models
study of typical existing residential buildings. A frame
configuration of two bays with two, four and six storeys The concrete is modelled by considering the effect
are considered. The dead load of the slab (5 m × 5 m of confinement due to the special confining detailing
panel) including floor finishes is taken as 3.75 kN/m2 in the beams and columns using the Kent-Scott-Park
and live load as 3 kN/m2. The design base shear (VB) constitutive model (Kent and Park, 1971), and using
is calculated as per equivalent static method (IS 1893, Concrete01 uniaxial material model in the OpenSEES
2002). The structural analysis for all the vertical and library. The cover concrete is modelled as unconfined
lateral loads is carried out by ignoring the infill wall concrete. Young’s modulus (Ec) for both core and cover
strength and stiffness (conventional). The design of concrete is a function of compressive strength (viz.,
No.2 Haran Pragalath D.C et al.: Multiplication factor for open ground storey buildings – a reliability based evaluation 287
Beams
MF = 1.0
Columns
(a) BF (Bare frame) (b) FF (Fully infilled frame) (c) OGS (OGS frame)
MF = 4.68
MF = 3.0
MF = 2.5
MF = 3.0
(d) IS (Indian code) (e) BLG (Bulgarian code) (f) SI (Israel code) (g) EC-8 (Eurcode)
Fig. 3 Configuration of the frames considered in the present study
Reinforcement details
Frame Storey No. Width (mm) Depth (mm) Lateral ties
(uniformly distributed)
Reinforcement details
Frame Storey No. Width (mm) Depth (mm) Lateral ties
(uniformly distributed)
Reinforcement details
Frame Storey No. Width (mm) Depth (mm) Lateral ties
(uniformly distributed)
other studies (Landi et al., 2012; Ravichandran and Kel ‒ Elastic stiffness
Klinger, 2012) on frames with infilled masonry. Ksec
Kel
5 Validation study Fres
Displacement
Validation of the modelling approach used in the Fig. 4 Force-displacement relationship of the diagonal struts
No.2 Haran Pragalath D.C et al.: Multiplication factor for open ground storey buildings – a reliability based evaluation 289
present study is carried out by conducting experiments 6 Selection of earthquake ground motion
on two reinforced concrete building frames (a bare
frame and an infilled frame) taken from the literature. Uncertainty in the seismic load is considered in the
The pseudo-dynamic experimental test conducted at study by the use of a suite of earthquake ground motions.
European Laboratory for Structural Assessment (ELSA Earthquake ground motions in a suite should be obtained
test laboratory) on four storey, three bay, RC full scale from past records of the region of interest. In this study,
frames (ICON frame – bare and infilled) are considered. far-field earthquakes are chosen since the building site is
The building frames are tested under two subsequent located at least 10 km away from faults (Ravichandran
unidirectional pseudo-dynamic loadings, first using and Klinger, 2012). Although India has experienced
the Acc-475 input motion and then the Acc-975 input several major earthquakes in the last few decades, the
motion. A detailed description of the test specimens, number of available earthquake records in Indian region
material properties and the loading schemes is given in is limited. In order to have a statistically sufficient
the SeismoStruct verification report. The test specimens number of ground motions a suite of synthetic ground
are modelled in OpenSEES as per the approach explained motions with sufficiently large numbers of samples
in Section 4. The nonlinear pseudo-dynamic time history may be required for the analyses. Therefore, a suite of
analysis for the record, Acc-475, is conducted and the top synthetic ground motions are generated in the present
displacement time histories are recorded. Figures 5 and study for nonlinear time history analysis of building
6 show the comparisons between the roof displacement models. The 22 pairs of far-field natural ground motion
histories obtained by the present computational study records given in FEMA P695 (2012) are modified to
and from the experimental study, for the bare and infilled match the design spectrum of Indian Standard IS 1893
frames, respectively. From these results it can be inferred (2002).
that the modelling approach adopted in the present study
can yield a reasonably accurate behavior of a bare frame
as well as infilled building frames for earthquake. This 7 Material uncertainty
modelling approach is found to be performing well for
the nonlinear dynamic analysis. A detailed validation Material properties for concrete, steel and infill wall
study of the same modelling approach is also discussed in structures are random in nature. Damping is another
in Haran Pragalath et al. (2015). source of uncertainty that can affect the dynamic response
of building significantly (Davenport and Carroll, 1986).
It is important to incorporate the uncertainties in all
possible material and modelling parameters in the
80
computational model to have a realistic representation
of the responses in probabilistic assessment.
Top displacement (mm)
60
40 The strength of concrete, reinforcement steel, infill
20 masonry and damping ratio are considered as random
0 variable as detailed in Table 4. Strength parameters for
-20
-40
concrete and steel are taken from Ranganathan (1999)
Experiment
-60 Present study
and shear strength of masonry infill is calculated from
-80 Agarwal and Thakkar (2001). Mean value for damping
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Time (s) ratio for RC structures is assumed to be 5% as per IS-
Fig. 5 Comparison of roof displacement time histories for 1893 (2002) and coefficient of variation is taken from
ICON frame - Bare Davenport and Carroll (1986).
The techniques of random sampling are more
powerful and useful for performing probabilistic
analyses. However, in most cases the problems being
20 analyzed are extremely complex and the computation
time may be very long. As a result, the time needed to
Top displacement (mm)
computational models are developed using these random elements are not considered in the numerical model. The
parameters for each of the selected building frames. beam column joint is assumed to be rigid.
The maximum ISD demands (EDP) for each storey
are monitored during N-LTH. The ISDs (maximum of
8 Development of PSDM all storeys) along with the corresponding PGAs (IM)
are plotted in a log-log graph. Each point in the plot
N-LTH analyses are carried out for all the 44 shown in Figs. 7‒9 represents a PGA value and the
computational models subjected to 22 pairs of selected corresponding maximum ISD for a particular frame. A
ground motions in order to obtain the median ISD demand power law (refer Eq. (7)) relationship for each frames
(EDP) for each frame. 22 pairs of ground motions are is fitted to the data using regression analysis, which
scaled linearly from 0.1 g to 1 g and each computational represents the PSDM model for the corresponding
model is analysed for a particular earthquake (randomly frame. The regression coefficients ‘a & b’, are found
selected) with a particular PGA. P–Δ effect is included for each frame and reported in Figs. 7-9. An insight of
in the N-LTH. Rayleigh damping is adopted in the the relative vulnerability of the frames can be obtained
numerical model and the damping matrices are estimated from the values of parameters ‘a & b’. It can be noted
from the 1st and 2nd natural frequencies. The Newmark that higher values of ‘a’ correspond to higher values of
direct integration method with the coefficients, α = 0.5, ISD and thereby higher vulnerability of the frame. With
β = 0.25 is used for N-LTH. The effects due to shear regard to two storey frames, the order of vulnerability
behavior, sliding effect and buckling of steel bars for RC increases perhaps in the order, FF (a = 1.10), EC (a =
100
10
Cloud analysis
Cloud analysis
Constants
Constants
10
PSDM
PSDM
Best fit
Best fit
EDP (ISD, %)
EDP (ISD, %)
1
a b a b
1 BF 6.28 1.25 BF 5.21 1.21
FF 1.10 1.99 FF 4.61 2.19
OGS 6.23 1.21 OGS 7.97 1.22
IS 3.21 1.30 0.1 IS 5.87 2.03
BLG 2.72 1.24 BLG 5.60 2.05
0.1 SI 2.39 1.25 SI 2.90 2.11
EC 1.29 1.03 EC 5.10 2.18
0.01
0.01 0.1 1.0
0.1 1.0
IM (PGA, g)
PGA (g)
Fig. 7 PSDM model for two storeyed frames Fig. 8 PSDM Model for four storeyed frames
No.2 Haran Pragalath D.C et al.: Multiplication factor for open ground storey buildings – a reliability based evaluation 291
Cloud analysis
infill walls in the ground storey, the fully infilled frames
Constants
exhibit better performance. The maximum ISD at each
PSDM
Best fit
Interstorey drift, %
1.0
4 FF
Probability of being in/exceedance
0.8
OGS
3
Floor level
0.6
0.4
2
FF
0.2 OGS
1
0
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 0 1 2
PGA (g) ISD (%)
(a) Fragility curve (IO level) (b) Storey wise ISD profile (for a particular earthquake at an instant)
Fig. 10 Fragility curve and typical drift profile for four storey frame for BF, FF and OGS
292 EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND ENGINEERING VIBRATION Vol.15
1.0 1.0
Probability of being in/exceedance
0.6 0.6
BF BF
FF FF
0.4 0.4
OGS OGS
IS IS
BLG BLG
0.2 0.2
SI SI
EC EC
0 0
0 0.5 1.0 0 1 2 3
PGA (g) PGA (g)
(a) at IO performance level (b) at CP performance level
Fig. 11 Fragility curves for two storey frames
1.0
1.0
Probability of being in/exceedance
0.6 0.6
BF BF
0.4 FF 0.4 FF
OGS OGS
IS IS
0.2 BLG 0.2 BLG
SI SI
EC EC
0 0
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
PGA (g) PGA (g)
(a) at IO performance level (b) at CP performance level
Fig. 12 Fragility curves for four storey frames
1.0 1.0
Probability of being in/exceedance
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
BF BF
FF FF
0.4 0.4
OGS OGS
IS IS
BLG 0.2 BLG
0.2
SI SI
EC EC
0 0
0 0.5 1.0 0 1 2 3
PGA (g) PGA (g)
(a) at IO performance level (b) at CP performance level
Fig. 13 Fragility curves for six storey frames
10 Comparison of reliability and cost hazard curve using Eqs. (2) and (3). In the present
study, the hazard curve of North East India as shown
The reliability indices of the frames are calculated in Fig. 2 is chosen. Reliability index is calculated
for the purpose of quantifying their relative performance. for two performance objectives (PO-I and PO-II)
The reliability indices are estimated by combining such as Immediate Occupancy (IO) at Design Basis
the fragility curve for a particular limit state with the Earthquake (DBE) level which corresponds to a mean
No.2 Haran Pragalath D.C et al.: Multiplication factor for open ground storey buildings – a reliability based evaluation 293
annual probability of occurrence of 10% in 50 years always befitting their corresponding reliability indices.
and Collapse Prevention (CP) at Maximum Considered In the case of two storey frames, the EC frame
Earthquake (MCE) level which corresponds to a mean achieves greater reliability than the FF but its cost index
annual probability of occurrence of 2% in 50 years. is 1.4 times that of the latter. For four and six storey
Reliability indices are computed for each frame and frames, it can be seen than cost index for EC is almost
listed in Table 6 for PO-I and PO-II in decreasing order. the highest, but its reliability is lesser than that of FF. On
For two storey frames, the reliability index decreases the other hand the SI frame achieves a higher reliability
in the following order for the selected performance index than FF but with a cost index similar to that of EC.
objectives: EC, FF, SI, BLG, IS, BF, and OGS. As there This indicates that MF in both ground and first storeys
are only two storeys, higher MF in the ground storey (SI) is a better scheme for typical four and six storey
leads to better performance. Behavior of four and six open ground-storey frames for both reliability and cost.
storey frames are slightly different as can be observed
from their reliability indices. 11 Conclusions
The reliability index of four storey frames decreases
in the following order for the selected performance There is disparity in the value of MF and its scheme
objectives: SI, FF, EC, BLG, IS, BF and OGS. For six of application for design of open ground storey (OGS)
storey frames the order is as follows: SI, FF, BLG, EC, buildings proposed by various International codes.
IS, BF and OGS. The present effort attempts to study, in a probabilistic
The reliability index of OGS frames (two, four framework, the performance of typical two, four and
and six storeyed) at both PO-I and PO-II performance six storey OGS frames designed with MFs suggested by
objectives are invariably the lowest indicating extreme various international codes. Open ground storey frames
vulnerability. Frames BF and FF perform better than are “designed” with MF values suggested by IS 1893
OGS frames according to their reliability indices. (2002), Bulgarian Seismic Design Code (1987), SI
For four and six storey frames, IS, BLG and EC 413 (1995) and EC 8 (2003). The probabilistic seismic
have a reliability index that is lower than that of the demand models, fragility curves, reliability indices
corresponding FF due to large drifts occurring at the first (for a selected seismic hazard) and cost indices for all
storey. The reliability index obtained for frame SI is the the selected open ground storey frames are developed
highest for both four and six storey frames, which shows including bare frame (BF) and fully infilled frame (FF).
that MF on both ground and first storey (SI) provide The following major conclusions are drawn on the
better reliability (even more than that of the FF frame). basis of the present study:
It can be concluded from these results that MF in both The open ground storey building designed with
ground and first storeys is perhaps a better scheme than multiplication factor of 1.0 (OGS) is found to be more
MF applied only in ground storey for typical four and six vulnerable than Bare Frame (BF) and Fully Infilled
storey frames. Frame (FF). Performance of FF is found to be superior
A higher value of MF will attract a higher cost of due to the presence of infill walls in all the storeys
construction. Cost associated with the resulting sections including the ground storey.
due to MF as per the various codes is computed and The scheme of applying MF only to the ground
expressed in terms of a parameter ‘cost index’. The cost storey proposed by Indian, Bulgarian and Euro codes is
index is defined as the ratio of the cost of construction found to lead to satisfactory performance only for two
for the selected frame to that of a similar bare frame storey frames. This scheme is found to be not effective
(BF). Cost indices are computed for each frame and for four and six storey frames as these frames cannot
listed in the Table 6. This table shows that the cost of match the reliability of a corresponding fully infilled
construction associated with different MF values are not frame.
For four and six storey frames, the scheme of Quake Resistance — Part 1: General Rules, Seismic
applying MF to both the open ground storey and the Actions and Rules for Buildings, European Committee
adjacent first storey, as suggested by SI 413 (1995), is of Standardization, prEN1998-1, Brussels, Belgium.
found to be a better solution for both the reliability and Fardis MN (1996), “Experimental and Numerical
cost aspects. Investigations on the Seismic Response of RC Frames and
Recommendations for Code Provisions,” Laboratório
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