Epidemiological
Epidemiological
exercise
Exposed a b a+b
OR =1 No association
OR > 1 Positive association
OR < 1 Negative association
Strength of association
In cohort study – it is measured by RR, AR, PAR
Risk ratio (RR) Incidence among exposed 𝐼𝑒
=
Relative risk incidence among unexposed 𝐼𝑢
𝑎
𝑎 + 𝑏 × 1000
𝑐 × 1000
𝑐+𝑑
Interpretation Exposed have ………. Times risk of developing disease
as compared to unexoposed
RR =1 𝐼𝑒 = 𝐼𝑢 No association
RR > 1 𝐼𝑒 > 𝐼𝑢 Positive association
RR < 1 𝐼𝑒 < 𝐼𝑢 Negative association
Attributable risk(AR) or risk difference (RD)
𝐴𝑅 = 𝐼𝑒 − 𝐼𝑢
𝑎 𝑐
AR= − × 1000
𝑎+𝑏 𝑐+𝑑
Interpretation of AR:
• Mathematical difference of incidence of the disease between two groups
• It is an indicator of public health problem caused by exposure
Attributable fraction or attributable proportion
𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑 −𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑛−𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑
ARP = × 100
𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑
𝑅𝐷 𝐼𝑒 −𝐼𝑢
ARP= =
𝐼𝑒 𝐼𝑒
𝑎 𝑐
−
𝑎+𝑏 𝑐+𝑑
ARP= 𝑎 × 100
𝑎+𝑏
Interpretation of ARP:
• ………..% of disease is attributed to exposure among exposure group
• …… % of disease can be prevented in exposure group if exposure is modified or
eliminated
Population Attributable risk (pAR)
𝑃𝐴𝑅 = 𝐼𝑝 − 𝐼𝑢
Incidence of disease among total population 𝐼𝑝 is equal to absolute risk
𝑎+c 𝑐
PAR= − × 1000
𝑎+𝑏+c+d 𝑐+𝑑
Interpretation of PAR:
• It quantifies avoidable incidence of the disease due to exposure in entire
population
Population Attributable risk fraction(parf) or
population attributable risk proportion(parp)
𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑡𝑜𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 −𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑛−𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑
PARP = × 100
𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑃𝐴𝑅 𝐼𝑝 − 𝐼𝑢
𝑃𝐴𝑅𝑃 = =
𝐼𝑝 𝐼𝑝
𝑎+c 𝑐
−
𝑎+𝑏+c+d 𝑐+𝑑
PARP= 𝑎+c × 100
𝑎+𝑏+c+d
Interpretation of PARP:
• ………..% of disease is attributed to exposure among total population
• …… % of disease can be prevented in population (both group) if exposure is
modified or eliminated
exercise
• A Pediatrician decided to find out the effect of father’s smoking on
the chance of his child developing ARI. He took the history of
father’s smoking from parents of all the cases coming to his OPD.
He collected the data from 660 parents. There were total 200 cases
of ARI. The history of father’s smoking was positive in 260 cases.
Out of them 104 were cases of ARI and remaining were other cases.
1. What type of epidemiological study is this?
2. Make a proper 2x2 table.
3. Calculate all the possible rates and ratios.
4. Apply a suitable statistical test.
5. Write your inference.
exercise
Tabulate the data and calculate the relevant measure the strength of
association.
Screening Test
Sensitivity True positive 𝑎
×100 = × 100
True positive+False negative 𝑎+𝑐
True negative 𝑑
×100 = × 100
False positive+True negative 𝑏+𝑑
Specificity
Positive predictive True positive 𝑎
×100 = × 100
False positive+True positive 𝑎+𝑏
value
Negative predictive True negative 𝑎
×100 = × 100
False negative+True negative 𝑎+𝑏
value
% of false negatives False negative 𝑐
×100 = × 100
False negative+True negative 𝑎+𝑐
• A screening test (PAP smear) was done for cervical cancer. Results are
given below
PAP smear Disease positive Disease negative
Deaths due to AIDS, TB and Gastroenteritis were 20, 105 and 210
Under 5 mortality
rate No of deaths of children less than 5 yrs in a given year
or × 1000
Total no. of live births in the same year
child mortality rate
• The census population of India in 2001 was 1027 million, it was 1210
million in 2011. Estimate mid year population of India for 2015 by
arithmetic progression method.
Fertility Indicators
Filarial disease rate 𝑁𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑓𝑖𝑙𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑓𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑠 × 100
𝑁𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑑
Infant parasite rate Total no of infant who show parasite in their blood films
× 100
total no of blood films checked of infants
Total no of children(2 − 10 years) who show parasite in their blood films
Child parasite rate × 100
total no of blood films checked of children (2 − 10 years)
Biting density Average incidence of anopheles bites per day per person
It is determined by catching the vectors using human bait.
Inoculation rate Biting density × sporozoites rate
exercise
parameters.
vaccine requirement
• Things to be required for vaccine calculation
No. of beneficiaries:-
oPregnant women
oInfant
The wastage Multiplication Factor (WMF)
Recommended vaccine and their vaccine doses- as per
EPI schedule
beneficiaries
vaccine requirements.
Vaccine coverage rate
Total no.of children received (X)vaccine
(X)Vaccine coverage rate= × 100
Total no.of children eligible for (X ) vaccine
V𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐞𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐕𝐄 % =
𝐴𝑡𝑡𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑢𝑛𝑣𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 − 𝐴𝑡𝑡𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑣𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑
× 100
𝐴𝑡𝑡𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑢𝑛𝑣𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑
exercise
test
exercise
be chlorinated. Horrock’s test shows blue colour in the 3rd cup. Calculate
disinfection?
exercise