Interest Rate Risk Notes
Interest Rate Risk Notes
Example 1
Calculate percentage change in price of a bond with duration of 5
and convexity of 150, Interest rate changes by 0.1% upwards
∆P/P = - MD * ∆r
Longer the tenor, longer is the Mac Duartion and Modified duration
8 How does one compute duration for a debenture with given cash flows?
Mod. Duration
=(P-high-P-low)/(2*P0*∆r )
Mod Duration
=(P-high-P-low)/(2*P0*∆r )
Tenor Duration
3 2.58
4 3.31
10 Illustrate that lower coupon leads to higher duration.
Modified Duration
=(P-high-P-low)/(2*P0*∆r )
coupon Duration
8 3.31
6 3.39
11 Illustrate that lower discount rate leads to higher duration.
Duration
=(P-high-P-low)/(2*P0*∆r )
discount rate Modified Duration
8% 3.39
6% 3.47
12 Why not directly compute the price change using NPV formula? Why use this ap
Year
0
1 6
2 6
3 6
4 106
NPV at 7% p.a-->
Year
0
1 0
2 0
3 0 6% 6.01%
4 100 $79.21 $79.18
Historically, Macaulay came up with the concept of linking market risk of a bond
So far we have assumed that convexity is zero. This was to simplify the p
the concept of duration is understood better.
Now let us bring in the convexity in the price change formula.
Convexity "C" in this formula imroves the estimated bond price change for a giv
19 Illustrate the approximation in the estimate for the changed price using both du
Year
0
1 6
2 6
3 6 6%
4 106 100.00
21 Illustrate using duration-convexity formula that that the bond price change is no
when interest rate goes up vs goes down?
when ∆r = +1%
∆P/P = -3.39%
when ∆r = -1%
∆P/P = 3.55%
Increase is always higher than the decline. This is due to the convexity in the bon
relationship.
148
128 B
108
88
A
68 C
48
28
0.02 0.07 0.12 0.17 0.22
$60.00
23.93% $37.53
$40.00
23.94% $37.51
$20.00
23.95% $37.50
$0.00
23.96% $37.48 0.00% 5.00% 10.00%
23.97% $37.46
23.98% $37.44
23.99% $37.43
24.00% $37.41
he measures to evaluate
ements
ermining
ill reduce.
ket risk?
lationship
of interest
in interest rate
ation of 5
1% upwards
* 150* (.1%)^2
e; is defined as
sh flows?
P0 P-low P-high
8.00% 8.01% 7.99%
$100.00 $99.97423 $100.02578
2.58
Formula 1
s increase of .02578
drop of .02577
net price change
P0 P-low P-high
8.00% 8.01% 7.99%
$100.00 $99.97 $100.03
3.31
P0 P-low P-high
8.00% 8.01% 7.99%
$93.38 $93.34 $93.41
3.39
P0 P-low P-high
6.00% 6.01% 5.99%
$100.00 $99.97 $100.03
3.47
uration of 3.47
ne would be 3.47% ,
$96.61 ie decline of 3.39%
5.99%
$79.24
3.77
n is equal to 4
d duration
5.01% 4.99%
99.95 100.05
5.08 half years
2.54 years
half years
as in "17" above
same relationship holds
Note that the discounting rate is for the corresponding
period
Formula 1 Formula 2
10.075431
28.515372
6.01% 5.99% 53.802588
99.97 100.03 1494.5163
Duration 3.47 1586.9097
Convexity 15.8691 15.869097
D=3.47, C=15.87
₹2,000.00
1.00% ₹2,551.77
₹1,500.00
1.25% ₹2,434.78 ₹1,000.00
2.00% ₹2,123.88
2.25% ₹2,032.17
2.50% ₹1,945.78
2.75% ₹1,864.37
3.00% ₹1,787.61
3.25% ₹1,715.20
3.50% ₹1,646.87
3.75% ₹1,582.35
4.00% ₹1,521.41
4.25% ₹1,463.82
4.50% ₹1,409.36
4.75% ₹1,357.85
5.00% ₹1,309.09
5.25% ₹1,262.91
5.50% ₹1,219.17
5.75% ₹1,177.70
6.00% ₹1,138.38
6.25% ₹1,101.06
6.50% ₹1,065.63
6.75% ₹1,031.98
7.00% ₹1,000.00
7.25% ₹969.59
7.50% ₹940.66
7.75% ₹913.11
8.00% ₹886.88
8.25% ₹861.89
8.50% ₹838.05
8.75% ₹815.32
9.00% ₹793.62
9.25% ₹772.90
9.50% ₹753.10
9.75% ₹734.17
10.00% ₹716.06
turity Relatioship
1 BPS 0.01%
10 BPS 0.10%%
25 BPS 0.25%
Semi annual 50 BPS 0.50%
100 BPS 1.00%
YIELD CURVE
Where:
- *Ct* is the cash flow at time *t*.
- *t* is the time in years.
- *n* is the number of periods (usually years).
- *y* is the yield to maturity (YTM) or the market interest rat
uration:
weighted average time it takes for an investor to receive the bond's cash fl
f those cash flows. In simpler terms,
d, taking into account both the timing and amount of each cash flow.
cash flow.
ormula:
r to recover
bond's cash flows are received, and vice versa.
Duration indicates a longer
interest rates.
rease, decreases as interest rates rise.
changes.
e factors in all principal cash flows whether they be in fixed
fixed period ends on the date of the last fixed payment or th
Weighted Average Life does not discount.
Weighted Average Life only uses principal.
y be in fixed or floating.
payment or the month prior to reset.
What is Macaulay Duration ?
Macaulay duration is a int rate risk measu
Term CFS
1 80
2 80
3 80
4 80
5 1080
Mac Duration
Term CFS
1 4
2 4
3 4
4 4
5 4
6 4
7 4
8 104
Mac Duration
Mac Duration
Term CFs
1 12.5
2 12.5
3 12.5
4 12.5
5 12.5
6 12.5
7 12.5
8 12.5
9 12.5
10 12.5
11 12.5
12 1012.5
Mac duration
Term CFS
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 1000
Mac duration
Note : For Zero Coupon bond , Mac durati
Note
What does Mac Duration indicate >
It means the int rate risk sensitivity
Higher the duration, higher the risk of the
Lower the duration , lower the risk of the
Mac Duration
divide by 2
Bond A is less Riskier
MD
he Macaulay Duration ?
PV of CFS t* PV of CFS
3.8277512 3.827751196
3.6629198 7.32583961
3.50518642 10.51555925
3.35424537 13.4169815
3.20980419 16.04902093
3.07158295 18.42949772
2.93931383 20.57519682
73.1312532 585.0500256
96.702057 675.1898727
6.982166604=E52/D52
3.491083302=E54/2
1000
5%
4Quarterly
3years
6%
PV of CFs t * PV of CFs
12.3152709 12.31527094=B68*D68
12.1332719 24.26654372
11.9539624 35.86188727
11.7773029 47.10921151
11.6032541 58.01627034
11.4317774 68.59066444
11.2628349 78.83984418
11.096389 88.77111238
10.932403 98.39162702
10.7708404 107.708404
10.6116654 116.7283196
846.842265 10162.10718
972.731237 10898.70633=SUM(E68:E79)
11.20423188=E80/D80
2.801057969=E82/4
upon we have to divide by 4 to get the final answer
y duration for a zero coupon bond
on value 1000
8%
5
PV of CFS t * PV of CFS
0 0=B94*D94
0 0
0 0
0 0
680.583197 3402.915985=B98*D98
680.583197 3402.915985=SUM(E94:E98)
5=E99/D99
n bond , Mac duration is always equal to the tenor o
on indicate >
sk sensitivity
gher the risk of the bond
wer the risk of the bond
8.3977566
4.1988783divide by the frequency of coupo
Bond A Bond B
4.1988783 4.426188824
duration for Bond A and Bond B
4.01806536 4.0607236915
=D136/(1+C117/C115) =E136/(1+D117)
4.29685=E26/D26
ately
semi annual
Years
:E79)
al answer
years
:E98)
he tenor of the bond
of coupon
D117)
/D26
Modified Duration is a financial concept closely related to Ma
sensitivity of a bond's price to changes in interest rates.
It addresses some of the limitations of Macaulay Duration an
accurate estimate of a bond's price change in response to int
dified Duration:
vides an estimate of the percentage change in a bond's price for a given cha
nd is 5, it implies that a 1% increase in yield would lead to an approximate 5
d to an approximate 5% increase in the bond's price.
ss one BSP)
us One BSP)
informed decisions
fluctuations,
are used.
ed convexity.
o the estimate of price changes.
nd improves the accuracy of the price change estimate.
Convexity is a concept in finance that com
(such as Macaulay Duration and Modified
bond's price will change in response to ch
Convexity takes into account the curvatur
addressing some of the limitations of dura
2. **Mathematical Formula**:
The formula for calculating the approxima
change in a bond's price due to a change
Where:
- *C* is the convexity of the bond.
- *P0 is the bond's price.
- *P high is the bond's price after Yield is
- *P low is the bond's price is Increased
- *ΔY* is the change in yield.
5. **Limitations**:
While convexity provides a more accurate
, it still has limitations. It assumes that cha
which may not hold true in all cases.
Additionally, convexity calculations can be
especially for bonds with irregular cash flo
e approximate percentage
to a change in yield (ΔY) is:
P0)/(P0*∆r*∆r)
bond.
e often
how bond prices will
onds that
management strategies.
g of interest rate risk.