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Forcing Club Theory and the Tarzan Precision 1C
W "Tom" Reynolds April 20
Depending on the lower limit of a 1C forcing system, the system will develop very differently
including how to handle interference after a 1C opening.

Our experience with a 15HCP forcing opening started with our adopting Sam Dinkin's Infernal
Machine. That system featured 8-11HCP major suit openings, opening 1C with many shapes in
the 11-14HCP range and opening 1D with all 15+HCP hands. What we learned from that system
was a modified Symmetric Relay structure that commenced at 1NT (4+ Spades). Frankly, it was
this Sam Dinkin developed relay that made a 1D opening system playable.

When we switched to Precision and a 1C forcing structure we continued this relay as follows: 1C-
1D (0-8HCP)-1H (artificial 18+HCP), 1NT and above being Sam's relay. Suffice to say that
starting a GF Symmetric relay at 1H provides optimum slam investigation and opponents will
strain to disturb the sequence which brings me to the subject of this article: How to handle
direct competition after a 1C opener.

The NT range dramatically affects relative strength and distribution of the 1C opener.

In the last half dozen years the "standard" 1NT opener in a Precision has evolved from 15-17 to
14-16. In a 15-17HCP system 1/2 the 16 and 17HCP hands are opened 1NT whereas in a 14-
16HCP system 1/2 the 16HCP are opened 1NT and all 17HCP hands are opened 1C. In a
Tarzan Precision System with an 11-14HCP 1NT opener all 15-17HCP hands are opened 1C.
Looking at the frequency of each (assume that 1/2 of hands in a specific range are openind 1NT
if the range overlaps)

System 15HCP 16HCP 17HCP 18+HCP Total

15-17 none 1.67% 1.18% 4.09% 6.94%

14-16 none 1.67% 2.36% 4.09% 8.12%

11-14 4.42% 3.31% 2.36% 4.09% 14.18%

More interestingly the % of 15-17HCP hands in 1C

15-17 41% none balanced

14-16 49.6% 29% balanced

11-14 71.1% 35.5% balanced

It should be immediately seen that a 1NT 11-14NT 1C occurs significantly more often than when
the opening 1NT is 14-16 and, if left alone, handles the critical 15-17 HCP range quite effectively.
It should also be seen that both the need and the opportunity to interfere directly over a 1C
opening has been increased.

However before discussing a 15+HCP 1C it is useful to also discuss the changes in the system
when an 11-14HCP NT is used as opposed to a 14-16HCP 1NT as the advantages and
disadvantages of a WNT versus a Precision 1D 11-13HCP balanced, 10-15HCP unbalanced,
opening

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11-14 Balanced 14.75% (assuming all 11-14HCP hands are opened 1NT)

11 1/2-14 balanced 12.55 (assuming 1/2 of balanced 11HCP hands are opened 1NT)

11-13 11.55 (assuming 1/2 of 11-13HCP hands are balanced)

The theory behind opening all 11HCP hands is that the opening bid preempts the opponents. It is
questionable, however, if a normal crappy balanced 4-3-3-3 or 4-4-3-2 11HCP hand opening 1D
is really a benefit as the hand also could include 14-15HCP unbalanced hands. The same is true
of opening that poor 11HCP hand 1NT.

Nevertheless, the logic of opening 1D as a preemptive bid increased geometrically if that hand is
opened 1NT. Most players would say that the weak NT breaks even versus a standard "best
minor" opening at matchpoints and is slightly better at IMPS. Compared to the Precision 1D
opening however, the weak NT is decidedly superior. It is true that opening 1D is safer to open a
poor hand but it is also true that if the opponents enter the bidding with a simple 1M overcall the
1D opening partnership is poorly placed. Some players love the Precision 1D opening and some
players also hate the weak NT but analysis indicates that the weak NT is a much superior bid.

I bring this 1D versus 1NT discussion because the weakness of the Precision 1D is identical to
the weakness of the 15-17HCP 1C-the bid is subject to low level interference. Yes, opening 1NT
14-16 is a preemptive opening and is superior to opening 1C but opening 1NT 11 1/2-14 is just
as preemptive and superior to opening 1D.

11 1/2-14 HCP 1NT 12.55%, 1C 15-16HCP balanced 7.73%

11-13HCP 1D 11.55%, 1NT 15-16HCP 7.73

The numbers show that the opponents are preempted 60+% more often when 1NT is opened
with a weak NT system compared to a 14-16NT Precision System.

It is, of course, true that the higher the preempt the greater risk and opening 1NT 11 1/2-14 is
definitely a risk that causes some players to shy away from the bid. Experienced players know
that risk is over blown. What is less understood is a low level preemptive bid. As previously
mentioned, we had several year's experience playing San Dinkin's Infernal Machine. That system
was built around an 8-11HCP 4 card major opening, as aggressive a low-level preempt as it gets.
Our experience was that the system worked very well against weaker opponents but in the
expert game the bid gave up too much information once expert players became experienced with
it. That is not to say the "Dinkin Tiny Major" was not effective but its effectiveness subsided
dramatically once expert players figured how to bid and play against it. This was also our
experience with the Precision 1D opening.

All these considerations have parallels in direct competition after a forcing club and responder's
structure for response
We will now look at various schemes for direct interference after various forcing club openings
and various schemes for the responder to combat the interference.

The most common is Mathe, named after Lew Mathe.

X=majors

1NT=minors

new suits natural

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Considering that the higher the bid the more preemptive it is we shall investigate the bids from
the lowest upward.

X showing majors gives away the information that the overcaller has the majors and gives two
additional bids, XX and pass and takes away zero of responder's bids. On the plus side it allows
advancer to bid to 2M with 4 card support and 3M with 4 card support.

1D natural also gives away information and gives responder two additional bids while subtracting
one

1H natural is break even taking away 2 bids while donating two. However if 1H is natural it
eliminates a natural 1H response by responder so the net result is that it loses 2 bids (P, X),
preempts two bids (1D, 1H) but also eliminates the need for a 1H response so 1H (natural) is still
negative 1 bid while 1H (artificial) is even.

1S, if natural is break even, if artificial it is plus 1.

This is not to agrue that overcalling a 5 card suit doesn't have value, only that it is not
preemptive. The preempt happens when advancer can raise the overcall to the two or 3 level.

This analysis led us to slightly modify another system from interfering with a forcing club,
CRASH. Crash stands for Color, Rank or Shape to show two suits of the same. Originally, a
double of 1C showed two suits of the same color, 1D showed two suits of the same rank and
1NT showed two suits of the same shape with a 1H and 1S overcall being a natural 5 card suit.

However, as Crash is indeterminate in terms of the two suits held, it was decided to start Crash
at 1H (color), followed by 1S (rank) and 1NT (shape). As one can see from the previous analysis,
with 1H and 1S not replacing a natural response by responder, the two bids become slightly
more obstructive. We decided that we needed at least 5-4 in the two suits as typically the
CRASH structure would land us in our best fit at the two level, we named the convention YAC
(Yet Another Crash). A double of 1C shows a heart overcall and 1D shows a Spade overcall
completing the structure.

A third system often deployed is SUCTION. In suction a bid shows the next higher one suiter or
the next two touching suits. 1C-X shows Diamonds or Hearts and Spades, 1C-1D shows Hearts
or Spades and Clubs, 1C-1H shows Spades or Clubs and Diamonds and so on.

Of the three conventions, Mathe, CRASH and Suction typically employed to overcall a forcing
club at the one level, we prefer YAC, our CRASH modification but, frankly, overcalling 1C below
1S seems to hurt as much as it helps.

A simple, and easy to remember is to overcall on the one-level with a natural bid and use
whatever convention you use over a strong NT on the two-level, with 1NT taking the place of
1NT-X.
Response to a simple overcall of a forcing club.

If you play a 15+HCP forcing Club and the 11 ½-14NT the club opener will have 15-17HCP over
705 of the time and will have opened 1NT 15-17HCP at the other table about 1/3 of the time.
Conventional logic is that the simple overcall increases the non 1C opener's competitive
condition because an opening 1NT (15-17HCP) would have likely shut out the overcall.

As it turns out, however, the simple overcall increases the competitive chances of the club
opener whenever responder has a five-card suit and competitive values. A simple simulation
where the opener is 15-17HCP any shape, overcaller has a five card suit and no other suit and
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responder also has a five card suit, that a transfer by responder into that five card suit makes 73
of the time. If responder's suit is a minor, the club opener has landed in a good contract while the
1NT opener cannot easily reach that contract.

Further, after the transfer, if advancer supports overcaller's overcall, if the club opener has three
of the transferred suit the fit takes 9+tricks again 73% of the time. If playing a 15+HCP club
opener, transfer responses on the two-level tends to negate the perceived advantage the overcall
affords- and then some.

What about when 1NT is 14-16HCP? It turns out that responder's minor is even more likely to
make 2 or 3 (with 3 card support) because the 1C opener is slightly stronger in this variation.
When 1NT is 15-17 the percent of make drops but is still 73%

What about against Crash. My simulation assumed a 5-4 hand but not 5-5-4-0 and, of course,
the two suits are unknown. The simulation shows (500 hands in DealMasterPro) that two of
responder's suit played by opener is even safer at 80% (12-14 1NT opener) and 86% (14-
16HCP) opener
What if responder doesn't have a 5 card suit?

A new suit on the one level shows a 4 card suit and a semi-positive (6-8HCP) response as
responder would normally transfer with a 5 card suit (1NT through 2H are transfers, including
doubles). With a balanced GF responder bids an artificial 2S. A double of a one-level bid shows a
semi-positive response where responder cannot bid his suit on the one level. A jump to 2NT is
also balanced GF but indicates a concentration of strength in the overcalled suit.

After a two-level overcall, all two level bids including a double are transfers (1C-2H-X shows 5
Spades) through 2H. If responder does not have either a 5 card suit that he can transfer to or a 4
card suit responder must pass with a less than a GF. All bids starting with 2S are game
forcing.Sometimes preempts work and the first responsibility is to get to game. The 2S/2NT
balanced GF structure may seem hoakey but, in fact, works very well. To play NT someone
needs to bid NT with a stopper. Sometimes opener must bid a less than 5-card minor with a
balanced hand with no stopper but usually opener has a stopper and rebids 2NT without a 5-card
major.

This means that occasionally the opponents will steal a partscore just as they would after a 15-
17NT opener but you will not miss a game.

There are two points to be made here.

1-A one level overcall allows responder to transfer to four suits with a 5 card suit whereas after a
1NT opening responder can transfer to only two. True, a club transfer via 1NT is only with a weak
hand so as to not wrongside a 3NT contract. However, responder can simply double the overcall,
then bid two clubs if possible and can also transfer into openers suit (if one is announced) to
show clubs and a better hand (still NF)

2-A one level overcall is nowhere as effective as a two-level overcall. The corollary to this is that
overcaller should always bid at the two level if possible

One simple approach is for overcaller to bid at the two level as if opener opened a 15-17NT with
1NT/1C the equivalent of a non-penalty double. As you might expect responder should defend
this as he would have had opener open 1NT.1NT- Responder can transfer into all 4 suits just as
he can after 1NT-X. However, most pairs play system on after a non-penalty Double and 2C. I
would suggest playing 2S as a balanced game force and not playing system on at IMPS. After 2S

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it is generally easy to find the right game. Three level bids are natural and GF2C- Responder can
transfer to three suits (diamond transfer) and still use 2S as a balanced GF.2D- and above. Most
pairs have a system they use after interference over a 14-16 or 15-17NT. My view is to keep
things simple.

What works is a real preempt.

In our case we reserve the two-level for a natural preempt with a 6+ card suit. We have found
that manufacturing a preempt when the hand is not really suited for one, i.e. no 6-card suit or 5-5
two suiter rarely works but preempting with a real preempt allows partner to continue the preempt
with an appropriate hand is what really does work.
Conclusions

1- As the minimum HCP range of a forcing club falls the competitive battle does come more
even. Still, a minimum 15HCP hand has a significant advantage competing with the typical
standard overcall and the ability to compete with a 15HCP Club is not significantly enhanced with
all 15HCP and ½ the 16HCP hands removes as with a 16HCP 1C and a 14-16HCP 1NT.

2- When the minimum balanced hand is in the 11-13HCP range, the relative HCP range
becomes more balanced with a normal one-level overcall. Compared with opening a balanced
11-13 or 11-14HCP balanced with 1D 10-15HCP (2+ diamonds no 5M or 6C) opening the
balanced hand 1NT 11 ½-14 is more preemptive and carry more risk.

3- When the opening 1NT associated with the forcing club is 14-16 or 12-14HCP, transfer
advances (including X) on the two level (1NT-2H) seem superior to a semipositive (6-8HCP)
double. On the other hand, when the associated 1NT range is 15-17HCP the semipositive double
seems equally effective.

As always, system analysis always takes a back seat to playing the system tha players are most
comfortable with and are most familiar with.

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