Decision Science

 Answer to Q-1.

Most of the decision making involves uncertainty, study of probability helps in assigning
probabilities to an event. If we talk about the example mentioned in the question, the events
are like that, it is Indian Premier League final season and the preferred group is Garuda.
According to Raj Kaul, Garuda’s win possibility is 60% based on his analyses. Records
shows that team who won the championship, they win the first match 70% of the time. And
when they lose the championship, they win the first game 25% of the time.
The team has lost their first game, now the probability that they will win the series is-

W- Scenario where team Garuda wins.

L- Scenario where team Garuda loses.
F- Scenario where team wins the first game.
F”- Scenario where team loses the first game.

According to the date above-

P (W) = 60/100= 0.6

Thus, P (L) = 1- P (W) = 1-0.6- 0.4

P (F/W) = 70/100 = 0.7

Thus, P (F”/W) = 1-0.7 = 0.3

P (F/L) = 25/100 = 0.25

Thus, P (F”/L) = 1-0.25 = 0.75
 Tree Diagram:

GARUDA

WIN THE SERIES LOST THE SERIES

0.6
0.4

WIN THE FIRST GAME LOST THE FIRST GAME WIN THE FIRST GAME LOST THE
FIRST GAME

0.7 0.30 0.25

0.75
5

Now let us find out-

Probability of Winning the series and first game = 0.6 * 0.7 = 0.42
Probability of Winning the series and losing first game = 0.6 * 0.30 = 0.18
Probability of Losing the series and winning the first game = 0.4 * 0.25 = 0.1
Probability of Losing the series and losing the first game = 0.4 * 0.75 = 0.3

Tree diagram shows all the possible outcomes from a scenario by displaying all the
conditions. Tree diagram starts with one node and each node then connects to form branches,
giving a tree like structure. Probability tree list on the possible occurrences of events and
calculate the chances of each event.
With the help of this tree diagram, team Garuda can understand about the possible outcomes
in the series and how they need to move along to win the series.

We have to find the probability that Garuda win the series that is P (W/F”)

P (W/F”) = P ((WՈ F”) / P (F”)

P (W/F”) = 0.18/ 0.18 + 0.3

= 0.18/ .48
= 0.375

 Answer to Q-2.

Regression Analysis is the process of constructing a mathematical function that can be used to find
one variable by another given variable. The most basic one is the simple regression involving 2
variables, in which one variable is predicted using the other variable. The variable to be predicted is
called the dependent variable and the other one is called independent variable.

Calculations of Regression Analysis:

X Y X*Y χ2 y²
5 5 25 25 25
5 5 25 25 25
4 5 20 16 25
4 5 20 16 25
5 5 25 25 25
5 5 25 25 25
3 5 15 9 25
5 5 25 25 25
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
 3 4 12 9 16
3 4 12 9 16
4 4 16 16 16
2 4 8 4 16
3 3 9 9 9
3 3 9 9 9
3 3 9 9 9
2 3 6 4 9
2 2 4 4 4
2 2 4 4 4
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
3 1 3 9 1
1 1 1 1 1
Sum = 86 Sum = 93 Sum = 340 Sum=320 Sum=377

Now we find-

n
X ¿ 1/n ∑ Xi
i=0

= 86 /27 = 3.18518
n
Y ¿ 1/n ∑ Yi
i=0

= 93/27 = 3.444444444
n
1
SSxx=∑ X 2 − ¿
i=1 N

= 320 - 86 2 / 27 = 46.0740
n
1
SSyy=∑ Y 2− ¿
i=1 N

= 377 - 93 2/27 = 56.66666

Therefore,
n n
1
SSxy=∑ X i Y i – ¿ (1/n ∑ Yi ¿
i=1 n i=0

= 93/27 = 43.777
As a result, using the computations above, the regression coefficients (the inclination m and
the Y-intercept n) were just as follows:
M = SSxy / SSxx = 43.77777/ 46.074074
= 0.9502
N = Y – X *m = 3.4444444- 3.185185185 *0.9502
= 0.418

Through this, the regression equation is = Y = 0.418 + 0.9502 X

The first step in calculating the equation of regression line is to establish the equations form. In
regression analysis, mathematicians use the slope intercept equation of a line, which is shown as

y = mx + b

Where m is the slope of the line and b is y intercept of the line.

B1 is slope of the regression formula and b1 = 0.9502, which shows a favourable relationship as scale
is from 1 to 5. There should be more research done to get inside the head of the target audience, there
are other methods like surveys, social media, interviews, expert opinion, for the research purposes.
Since the scale is from 1 to 5 and the value of regression equation of b1 is 0.9502, tells us about the
good link between them. An increase in the scores offers by customers will lead increase in customer
satisfaction rating which in turn increases the business. Thus this kind of data useful for Shivani Raje
who is selling through e-commerce and her business is growing steadily.

State Name District Name Number of Relative Result

MSME Frequency
= Subgroup
frequency/ total
frequency
Tripura WEST 2915 2915 / 6651 0.43
TRIPURA
Tripura SOUTH 586 586 / 6651 0.08
 TRIPURA
Tripura DHALAI 439 439 / 6651 0.006
Tripura NORTH 854 854 / 6651 0.12
TRIPURA
Tripura KHOWAI 514 514 / 6651 0.06
Tripura UNAKOTI 447 447 / 6651 0.06
Tripura SEPAHIJALA 383 383 /6651 0.05
Tripura GOMATI 513 513 / 6651 0.07
Sum 6651 1

 Answer to Q-3 (a).

Hence,
Relative frequency = F1/ Total frequency
= 2915/6651
= 0.43

Relative frequency is the proportion of the total frequency that is given in any class interval in a
distribution. Relative frequency is individual class frequency divided by total frequency.

From this chart above, it is clearly visible that West Tripura has maximum number of MSME.
  Answer to Q-3 (b).

1.

State Name District Name Number of Micro, Small and

Medium Enterprises
ANDHRA PRADESH SRIKAKULAM 10895
ANDHRA PRADESH VIZIANAGARAM 30186
ANDHRA PRADESH VISAKHAPATNAM 29070
ANDHRA PRADESH EAST GODAVARI 26546
ANDHRA PRADESH WEST GODAVARI 33541
ANDHRA PRADESH KRISHNA 23231
ANDHRA PRADESH GUNTUR 25479
ANDHRA PRADESH PRAKASAM 45171
ANDHRA PRADESH SPSR NELLORE 54059
ANDHRA PRADESH Y.S.R 37500
ANDHRA PRADESH KURNOOL 15362
ANDHRA PRADESH ANANTHAPUR 21193
ANDHRA PRADESH CHITOOR 27670

Based on the above data, SPSR Nellore and Prakasam are the top 2 districts.
 Data of two districts
56000

54000

52000

50000

48000

46000

44000

42000

40000
SPSR Nellore Prakasam

2.
Median is the middle value in an ordered array of numbers, for an array with odd numbers,
median is the middle number and for an array with even number of terms, median is the
average of two middle numbers. First we need to arrange the terms in ordered way, for an
odd number find the middle number and for an even terms, find the average of two middle
terms and that is the media.

Total number of districts in above data is 13.

So median will be 7th term.

Median value = 27670

And the district is Chitoor.

**************************************