EXERCISE NO: 1 Date: / /

TITLE: CLASSIFICATION OF DATA

❖ Problems on exclusive and inclusive classification
1. Discrete frequency distribution
2. Continuous frequency distribution
3. Relative frequency distribution
4. Bi-variate frequency distribution
5. Cumulative frequency distribution

Q.1 The following data refers to the number of groundnut pods per plant for 40 plants.
Represent the data in the form of a discrete frequency distribution.
1 0 2 3 4 5 6 9
7 2 3 4 0 2 5 11
8 4 5 12 6 3 2 7
7 6 5 3 3 7 8 6
9 7 9 4 5 4 3 10
a. Give number of plants having 4 and 12 pods per plants.
b. Also give number of plants which have no single pod.
Solution:
No. of pod per plant Tallies Frequency

1 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 1

Q.2 Consider the following data shows the number of coconut fruits per tree. Construct a
grouped frequency distribution. Take class interval 0-9, 10-19, … and so on.
31 13 46 31 30 45 38 42 30 9
30 30 46 36 2 41 44 18 29 63
44 30 19 5 44 15 7 25 12 30
6 22 24 37 15 6 39 32 21 20
42 31 19 14 23 28 17 53 22 21
a. State whether the class interval is inclusive or exclusive type.
b. Give number of trees having number of fruits in the range 30-39.
Solution:
Number of fruits / plant Tallies Frequency

2 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Q.3 Following data gives the number of healthy fruits per plant for some horticultural plants.
3 4 5 6 7 3 7 5 7 9
4 6 5 2 3 7 8 6 5 4
4 6 7 5 8 7 9 7 6 4
8 3 5 6 7 8 9 4 5 6
3 5 6 2 5 7 8 7
a. Classify the data with appropriate discrete groups.
b. Form a frequency distribution table with relative frequency, Percent frequency and
cumulative frequency less than and greater than type.
c. What is the percentage of plants in 2nd to 5th group?
d. What is the percentage of plants with greater than 3 fruits and less than 5 fruits?
Solution:
Group Tally Frequency Relative Percent Cumulativ Cumulative
Marks frequency frequency e ≥ type
≤ type

3 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 3
Q.4 Given below the cane yield weight (kg) per plot of certain plot. Form a frequency
distribution with interval of 15 kg. Use exclusive form of class interval. Also find
relative frequency (≤ type and ≥ type). Find number of plots where yield is greater than
30 kg and less than 75 kg.
23 45 67 34 12 45 45 09 56 98
45 32 21 32 54 09 87 76 54 65
56 78 90 12 34 56 78 90 09 87
32 43 54 65 76 87 98 09 05 50
21 12 34 43 56 65 78 87 98 90
97 45 43 67 67 89 76 34 23 45
65 34 56 78 76 98 90 98 76 54
23 12 06 56 03 45 67 78 87 34
43 23 45 56 87 98 98 09 06 54
12 54 78 87 98 54 43 32 12 54

Solution:
Sr. No. Class interval Tally Frequency Relative C. F. C. F.
Marks Frequenc ≤ type ≥ type
y

4 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Q.5 Calculate the less than cumulative frequency and greater than cumulative frequency for
the following data.
Class 30 - 50 50 - 70 70 - 90 90 - 110 110 - 130 130 - 150
Frequency 10 25 30 36 14 5

Solution:
Class Frequency C. F. ≤ type C. F. ≥ type

Q.6 The data given below related to the average weight of chiku fruits (GM) and average
size (mm) of fruits for 20 trees. Form a bi-variate (two-way) frequency distribution
with class interval 62 mm – 64 mm, 64 mm – 66 mm, and so on and 115gm – 125 gm,
125gm – 135 gm and so on.
Sr. No. Average Wt. Average size Sr. No. Average Wt. Average size
of fruit (gm) of fruit (mm) of fruit (gm) of fruit (mm)
1 170 70 11 163 70
2 135 65 12 139 67
3 136 65 13 122 63
4 137 64 14 134 68
5 148 69 15 140 67
6 121 63 16 132 69
7 117 65 17 120 65
8 128 70 18 148 68
9 143 71 19 129 67
10 129 62 20 152 67
5 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune
Also find the number of plants having average weight of fruits in the range of 135 gm to 145
gm and average size of fruits ranges between 64mm to 66mm.

Solution:
Average size Average weight of fruits (gm)
of fruit (mm) 115-125 125-135 135-145 145-155 155-165 165-175 Total
62-64
64-66
66-68
68-70
70-72
Total

Q.7 Prepare a frequency table for the following data showing number of coconut fruits per
plant with width of each class interval as 10. Use exclusive method of classification.
57 44 80 75 00 18 45 14 04 64
72 51 69 34 22 83 70 20 57 28
96 56 50 47 10 34 61 66 80 46
22 10 84 50 47 73 42 33 48 65
10 34 66 53 75 90 58 46 39 69
Find the number coconut plants having number of coconut fruits from 60-70.
Solution:
Frequency Distribution
No. of coconuts per plant Tallies Frequency

6 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

EXERCISE NO: 2 Date: / /

TITLE: DIAGRAMMATIC AND GRAPHIC PRESENTATION.

1. One dimensional diagrams
2. Two dimensional diagrams
3. Pie diagrams
4. Histograms
5. Smooth frequency curve
6. Ogive curve or cumulative frequency curve

Q.1 The growth of production of rice for the period 1999 to 2006 is given below. Construct
sub-divided bar diagram with suitable scale to represent the following data.
Year Kharip Summer
1999 74 52
2002 82 82
2001 92 93
2002 105 85
2003 112 58
2004 125 62
2005 106 92
2006 85 85

Q.2 Draw a multiple bar diagram from the following data.

Year Sales (‘000 Rs.) Gross Profit (‘000 Rs.) Net Profit (‘000 Rs.)
2000 120 40 20
2001 135 45 30
2002 140 55 35
2003 150 60 40
2004 165 60 45

Q.3 Represent the following data by sub-divided bar diagram drawn on the percentage basis:
Particulars 2001(Rs.) 2002(Rs.) 2003 (Rs.)
1. Cost per chair

7 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 a. Wages 9 15 21
b. Other cost 6 10 14
c. Polishing 3 5 7
Total 18 30 42
2. Sale price per chair 20 30 40
3. Profit / loss +2 -- -2

Solution: Take the sale price per CFB packing box as Rs. 100 and express the other figures
in percentages.
Particulars 2001 2002 2003
Wages
Raw material
Other cost
Total cost
Sale price
Profit / loss

Q.4 Draw a pie diagram for the following data of 6 th Five-Year Plan Public sector outlays.
Also write detailed procedure adopted for drawing pie chart.
Sectors Percent Outlays
1. Agriculture and Rural development 12.9 %
2. Irrigation etc. 12.5 %
3. Energy 27.2 %
4. Industry & Minerals 15.4 %
5. Transport, communication etc. 15.9 %
6. Social services and others 16.1 %

Solution: The angle at the centre is given by = Percent outlay X 360

100
= Percent outlay X 3.6
Sector Percentage Angle Outlay

8 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 Total 100 3600

Q.5 Draw a histogram and frequency polygon from the following data. Also find ‘Ogive’
curve of both type and find point of intersection of these two curves.
Marks No. of students
0 - 10 8
10 - 20 12
20 - 30 22
30 - 40 35
40 - 50 40
50 – 60 60
60 - 70 52
70 - 80 40
80 - 90 30
90 - 100 5

Solution:
Marks Class Interval Frequency Cumulative frequency Cumulative frequency
less than type greater than type

9 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Q.6 Draw a histogram and smooth frequency curve from the following data.
Marks No. of students
0 - 10 4
10 - 20 6
20 - 40 14
40 - 50 16
50 - 60 14
60 - 70 8
70 - 90 16
90 - 100 5

10 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

EXERCISE NO: 3 Date: / /

TITLE: MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY.

❖ Computation of AM, GM, HM, Median, Mode for discrete
ungrouped data and grouped data.
1. Arithmetic mean
2. Median
3. Mode
4. Geometric mean
5. Harmonic mean

Q.1 Find the arithmetic mean for grouped frequency data of lactations per cow.
No. of lactations 0 2 4 6 7 8 9
No. of cows 27 32 21 25 30 8 7

Solutions:
Apply formula X = ∑ X.f
N
Sr. No. No. of lactations ( X) No. of cow ( f ) Xf
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
N= ∑ X.f =

11 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Q.2 From the following data of the marks obtained by 60 students of a class, calculate the
arithmetic mean:
Marks (X) 20 30 40 50 60 70
No. of Students (f) 8 12 20 10 6 4

Solutions:
Apply formula X = ∑ X.f
N
Sr. No. No. of cows ( X) No. of lactations/cow ( f ) Xf
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
N= ∑ X.f =

Q.3 From the following data find the value of median:

Income (Rs.) 1000 1500 800 2000 2500 1800
No. of Persons 24 26 16 20 6 30

Solution:
Median = Size of ( N + 1 )th item
2

Income ( arranged in ascending order) No. of Persons c.f.

12 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Q.4 Daily income of ten agricultural families in a rural area is given below. Find out
geometric mean.
Daily income (Rs.) : 85, 70, 15, 75, 500, 8, 45, 250, 40, 36.
Solution:
X Log X X Log X

∑ log X =
Apply Formula,
G.M. = Antilog (∑ log X )
N

Q.5 From the following data compute the value of Harmonic Mean.
Wt. of Chiku fruits (gms) 10 20 25 40 50
No. of fruits 20 30 50 15 5
Solution:
Wt. of chiku fruits (gms) ( X ) No. of fruits ( f ) F/X

∑(f/X)=
13 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune
EXERCISE NO: 4 Date: / /

TITLE: MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY.

❖ Computation of AM, GM, HM, Median, Mode continuous series.

1. Arithmetic mean
2. Median
3. Mode
4. Geometric mean
5. Harmonic mean
_______________________________________________________________________
Q.1 From the following data compute arithmetic mean by direct method and short-cut
method.
Yield (gm) 0 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 50 - 60
Frequency 5 10 25 30 20 10
Solution: Direct Method
Apply formula, X = ∑ f.m
N
Class Interval Frequency ( f ) Mid Value ( m ) f.m

∑f.m =
Short-cut Method:
Apply formula, X = A + ∑f.d
N
Class Interval Frequency ( f ) Mid Value ( m ) d = (m – A) f.d

14 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 ∑f.d =
Q.2 Find the median for the following data yield per plant for cereal crop.
Yield (gms) 0 - 10 10 - 30 30 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 90
No. of Plants 5 15 30 8 2

Solution:
Apply formula, Median = L + N/2 - c.f. x i
f
Class interval Frequency c.f. less than type

Q.3 Find the modal value from the following data.

Weight of fruits (gms) No. of fruits Weight of fruits (gms) No. of fruits
93 - 97 2 113 - 117 14
98 - 102 5 118 - 122 6
103 - 107 12 123 - 127 3
108 - 112 17 128 - 132 1
Solution:

15 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 Mode = L + ∆1 x i
∆1 + ∆1

Q.4 Find the Geometric Mean of the following data.

Wt. of fruits (gms) No. of fruits Wt. of fruits (gms) No. of fruits
4-8 6 24 - 28 12
8 - 12 10 28 - 32 10
12 - 16 18 32 - 36 6
16 - 20 30 36 - 40 2
20 - 24 15

Solution:
Wt. of fruits Mid-value ( m ) f Log m f x log m

Apply formula, G.M. = Antilog (∑ f . log m )

N

16 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Q.5 From the following data compute the value of harmonic mean:
Class interval 10 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 50 - 60
Frequency 4 6 10 7 3

Solution:
Class interval Mid-value ( m ) Frequency ( f ) f/m

∑ (f / m) =

Apply formula, N
H.M. = --------------
∑ (f / m)

17 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

EXERCISE NO: 5, 6 & 7 Date: / /

TITLE: MEASURES OF DISPERSION.

❖ The estimation of Range, QD, MD, SD, Variance Standard
error and Coefficient of MD for discrete grouped and ungrouped
data.
1. Range
2. Quartile Deviation
3. Mean deviation
4. Standard deviation
5. Variance
6. Coefficient of variation

Q.1 The following are the prices of shares of ABC Food Process Co. Ltd, from Monday to
Saturday are given below. Calculate the range and its coefficient.
Day Price (Rs.) Day Price (Rs.)
Monday 200 Thursday 160
Tuesday 210 Friday 220
Wednesday 208 Saturday 250

Solution:
Apply Formula, Range = L – S
L–S
Coefficient of Range = ----------
L+S

18 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Q.2 Find out the value of quartile deviation and its coefficient from the following data.
Roll No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Marks 20 28 40 12 30 15 50
Solution:
Marks arranged in ascending order:

Apply formula, Q1 = Size of [(N + 1) / 4]th item

Q3 = Size of 3[(N + 1) / 4]th item

Quartile Deviation = (Q3 – Q1) / 2

Coefficient of Q. D. = (Q3 – Q1) / (Q3 + Q1)

Q.3 Compute the coefficient of quartile deviation from the following data.

Coconut fruits 10 20 30 40 50 60
harvested / day
No. of trees. 4 7 15 8 7 2

Solution:
X f c.f.

19 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 N=

Apply formula, Q1 = Size of [(N + 1) / 4]th item

Q3 = Size of 3[(N + 1) / 4]th item

Quartile Deviation = (Q3 – Q1) / 2

Coefficient of Q. D. = (Q3 – Q1) / (Q3 + Q1)

Q.4 Calculate the mean deviation and its coefficient of the two income grups of five and
seven members given below:
Group I 4000 4200 4400 4600 4800 -- --
Group II 3000 4000 4200 4400 4600 4800 5800
Solution:
Income Group I Income Group II
X D = I X – Me I X D = I X – Me I

20 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 N= ∑I D I = N= ∑I D I =
Apply formula,

Median = Size of (N + 1) / 2th item

∑f D
Mean Deviation = ------------
N

M. D.
Coefficient of M.D. = ------------
Median
Q.5 Calculate the Mean Deviation and Coefficient of M.D. from the following data.
X 10 11 12 13 14
f 3 12 18 12 3
Solution:
X f D = X - Me fd c.f.

N= ∑f D =
Apply formula,
Median = Size of (N + 1) / 2th item

∑f D
Mean Deviation = ------------
N

21 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 M. D.
Coefficient of M.D. = ------------
Median

Q.6 Calculate the standard deviation for the following data with the help of assumed mean.
X 240 260 290 245 255 288 272 263 277 251
Solution:
X d = (X – 264) d2

∑d = ∑d2 =
Apply formula,
____________________
σ = √ ∑ d2 _ [ ∑ d ]2
N N

22 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Q.7 Calculate the standard deviation and variance from the following data.
X 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5
f 3 7 22 60 85 32 8
Solution:
X f D = (X – 6.5) f.d d2 f.d2

∑fd = ∑f.d2 =
Apply formula,
____________________
σ = √ ∑f.d2 _ [ ∑fd ]2
N N

23 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

EXERCISE NO: 8, 9 & 10
Date: / /

TITLE: MEASURES OF DISPERSION.

❖ The computation of Range, QD, MD, SD, Variance, Standard
error and Coefficient of MD for continuous type grouped data.
1) Range
2) Quartile Deviation
3) Mean deviation
4) Standard deviation
5) Variance
6) Coefficient of variation

Q.1 Calculate the coefficient of range from the following data.

Marks No. of students Marks No. of students
10 - 20 8 40 - 50 8
20 - 30 10 50 - 60 4
30 - 40 12

Solution:
Apply Formula, Range = L – S

L–S
Coefficient of Range = ----------
L+S

24 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Q.2 Calculate the quartile deviation and coefficient of quartile deviation from the following
data.
Yield qtl/ha. for Less than 35 35 - 37 38 - 40 41 - 43 Over 43
Bajara
No. of families 14 62 99 18 7
Solution:
Apply formula, Q1 = Size of (N + 1)th / 4 item

(N/4 - c.f.)
Q1 = L + ------------------ x i
f

Q3 = Size of 3[(N + 1) / 4]th item

(3N/4 - c.f.)
Q3 = L + ------------------ x i
f

Quartile Deviation = (Q3 – Q1) / 2

Coefficient of Q. D. = (Q3 – Q1) / (Q3 + Q1)

Q.3 Find the median, mean deviation and coefficient of mean deviation of the following data.
Class interval 0 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 50 - 60 60 - 70
frequency 7 12 18 25 16 14 8
Solution:
Class f c.f. m D = I X-Me I f D

25 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 N= ∑f D=

Apply formula,
Median = Size of (N / 2)th item

(N/2 - c.f.)
Median = L + ------------------ x i
f

∑f D
Mean Deviation = ------------
N

M. D.
Coefficient of M.D. = ------------
Median

26 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Q.4 Find the arithmetic mean, coefficient of variation and variance for the following data.
Monthly Expenditure No. of students Monthly No. of students
(Rs.) Expenditure (Rs.)
78 - 82 2 53 - 57 13
73 - 77 6 48 - 52 9
68 - 72 7 43 - 47 7
63 - 67 12 38 - 42 4
58 - 62 18 33 - 37 2

Solution:
Class f m d= (m-60) d2 f.d f.d2

∑f.d= ∑f.d2=
Apply formula, ∑f.d
Mean = A + -----------
N

____________________
σ = √ ∑f.d2 _ ∑fd 2

N N

27 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 σ
Coefficient of Variation = -------- x 100
X

Variance = σ2

Q.5 Find the mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and variance for the following
data.
Marks (X) 0 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 50 - 60 60 – 70
No. of students (f) 5 12 30 45 50 37 21
Solution:
Class f m d= (m-35) d2 f.d f.d2

∑f.d= ∑f.d2=
Apply formula, ∑f.d
Mean = A + -----------
N

____________________
σ = √ ∑f.d2 _ ∑fd 2

N N

28 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 σ
Coefficient of Variation = -------- x 100
X

Variance = σ2

EXERCISE NO: 11 Date: / /

TITLE: TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE.
❖ Students ‘t’ test
1. One sample t - test
2. Paired t – test
3. Unpaired t - test
One Sample Test
1. To test the significance of the mean of a Random Sample ( One Sample Test ):
Students t – distribution can be given by the following formula,
(X–μ)
t = ------------- √ n
S
Where, X = the mean of the sample
μ = the actual or hypothetical mean of the population
n = the sample size
S = the standard deviation of the sample

∑ ( X – X )2
S= ---------------
n–1
Example No: 1
The life time of prepared sauce for a random sample of 10 from a large consignment gave the
following data:
Item 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Life in Months 4.2 4.6 3.9 4.1 5.2 3.8 3.9 4.3 4.4 5.6
Can we accept the hypothesis that the average life time of sauce is 4 months?
( ν = n – 1 = 10 – 1 = 9, For ν = 9, t0.05 = 2.262 )
Solution:
Let us take the hypothesis that there is no significant difference in the sample mean and the
hypothetical mean. Applying t - test:
Item Life time in months (X) (X–X) ( X – X )2
29 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune
 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
∑X = ∑ ( X – X )2 =
Example No.2
The manufacturer of a certain make of electric bulbs claims that his bulbs have a mean
life of 25 months with a standard deviation of 5 months. A random sample of 6 such
bulbs gave the following values.
Life in months (X) 24 26 30 20 20 18
Can you regard the producer’s claim to be valid at 1% level of significance? (t0.01 = 4.032)
Solution:
Let us take the hypothesis that there is no significant difference in the mean life of bulbs in
the sample and of the population. Applying t - test:
Life in months (X) (X–X) ( X – X )2

∑X = ∑ ( X – X )2 =

30 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 Two Sample Test
2. Testing difference between means of two samples (Independent Samples)
Two Sample Test:

Student’s t – distribution for two independent samples is given by the formula,

( X1– X2)
t = ------------- √ n1 n2
S n1+n2
Where, X1= the mean of the first sample
X2 = the mean of the second sample
μ = the actual or hypothetical mean of the population
n1= the sample size of first sample
n2 = the sample size of second sample
S = combined standard deviation

∑ ( X1– X1)2 + ∑ ( X2 –X2)2

S= -----------------------------------
n1 + n2 – 2
Example No: 3
Two types of fertilizers were used on 5 and 7 mango plants for increasing their yield.
Fertilizer A was imported and fertilizer B was indigenous. The increase in the yield in kg
after using the fertilizers for six months was as follows:
Fertilizer A 10 12 13 11 14 - -
Fertilizer B 8 9 1 14 15 10 9
Is there a significant difference in the effectiveness of the two fertilizers? If not, which
fertilizer should you buy? ( t0.05 = 2.223 )
Solution:
Let us make the hypothesis that there is no significant difference in the effectiveness of the
two fertilizers. Applying t – test:
Fertilizer A ( X1 – X1 ) ( X1 – X1 )2 Fertilizer B ( X2 – X2 ) ( X2 – X2 )2
(X1) (X2)

31 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

∑ X1 = ∑( X1 – X1 )2= ∑ X2 = ∑( X2 – X2 )2=

Example No: 4
For a random of 10 persons fed on diet A and 12 persons fed on diet B, the increased weight
in pounds in a certain period were:
Diet A 10 6 16 17 13 12 8 14 15 9 -- --
Diet B 7 13 22 15 12 14 18 8 21 23 10 17
Test whether the diets A and B differ significantly as regards their effect on increase in
weight. (v = n1 + n2 – 2 = 10 + 12 = 20, t0.05 = 2.09)
Solution:
Let us take null hypothesis that A and B do not differ significantly weight regard to their
effect on increase in weight. Applying t – test:
Diet A (X1) ( X1 – X1 ) ( X1 – X1 )2 Diet B (X2) ( X2 – X2 ) ( X2 – X2 )2

∑ X1 = ∑( X1 – X1 )2= ∑ X2 = ∑( X2 – X2 )2=

32 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 Paired t - test
3. Testing difference between means of two samples (Dependent samples):
Paired t-test: Two samples are said to be dependent when the elements in one
sample are related to those in the other in any significant manner.
The t – test based on paired observations is defined by the following formula:
d
t = --------- √ n
S
Where, d = the mean of the differences
S = standard deviation of the differences

∑(d – d)2
S = -------------
n-1
Degree of freedom = ν = n – 1
Example No: 5
To verify whether a course on accounting improves performance, a similar test was given to
12 participants both before and after the course. The original marks recorded in alphabetical
order of the participants were 44, 40, 61, 52, 32, 44, 70, 41, 67, 72, 53 and 72. After the
course, the marks were in the same order 53, 38, 69, 57, 46, 39, 73, 48, 73, 74, 60 and 78.
Was the course useful? ( t0.05 – 2.201 ).
Solution:
Let us take the hypothesis that there is no significant difference in the marks obtained before
and after the course, i.e. the course has not been useful.
Applying t – test ( difference formula ):
Participant Before After (2nd – 1st ) test (d – d) (d – d)2
s (1st test) (2nd test) d

33 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 ∑d = ∑(d – d)2=
Solution:

Example No: 6
A drug is given to 10 patients and the increments in their blood pressure were recorded to be
3, 6, -2, 4, -3, 4, 6, 0, 0, 2. Is it reasonable to believe that the drug has no effect on change of
blood pressure? (5% value of t for 9 d.f. = 2.26)
Solution:
Let us take the hypothesis that the drug has no effect on change of blood pressure.
Applying t – test (difference formula):
d ∑d =
d2 ∑d2 =

34 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 Un-paired t - test
4. Testing the significance of an observed correlation coefficient:
When the correlation coefficient of the population is zero, i.e., the variables in the
population are uncorrelated, then apply the following test:
r
t = -------- x √ n – 2
√1 – r2
Degree of freedom = ν = n – 2
Example No.7
A random sample of 27 pairs of observations from a normal population gives a correlation
coefficient of 0.42. Is it likely that the variables in the population are uncorrelated?
(t0.05=1.708).
Solution:
Let us make the hypothesis that there is no significant difference in the sample correlation
and correlation in the population. Applying t – test:

35 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

EXERCISE NO: 12 Date: / /
TITLE: TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE.
❖ ‘F’ test or Variance Ratio Test.

The F – test is named in honour of the great statistician R.A. Fisher. The F- test is also called
as Variance Ratio Test. The object of the F – test is to find out whether the two independent
estimates of population variance differ significantly or whether the two samples may be
regarded as drawn from the normal populations having the same variance. For carrying out
the test of significance, we calculate the ratio of F. F is defined as:
S12 Σ(X1 – X1)2
2
F = --------, where S1 = --------------
S12 n1 – 1

and Σ (X1 – X1)2

S22 = --------------
n1 – 1
It should be noted that S12 is always the larger estimate of the variance, i.e. S12 > S22.

Larger estimate of variance

F = -----------------------------------
Smaller estimate of variance
Example No.1
Two random samples were drawn from two normal population and their values are:
A 66 67 75 76 82 84 88 90 92 -- --
B 64 66 74 78 82 85 87 92 93 95 97
Test whether the two populations have the same variance at the 5% level of significance.
( F0.05 = 3.36).
Solution:
A (X1) (X1-X1) (X1-X1)2 B (X2) (X2-X2) (X2-X2)2

36 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

∑X1= Σ(X1-X1)2= ∑X2= Σ(X2-X2)2=

Example No.2
Two samples are drawn from two normal populations. From the following data test whether
the two samples have the same variance at 5% level: ( F0.05 = 3.68 ).
Sample 1 60 65 71 74 76 82 85 87 -- --
Sample 2 61 66 67 85 78 63 85 86 88 91
Solution:
Let us take the hypothesis that the two populations have the same variance.
Applying F-test:
Plot 1 (X1) (X1-X1) (X1-X1)2 Plot 2 (X2) (X2-X2) (X2-X2)2

37 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

ΣX1= Σ(X1-X1)2= ΣX2= Σ(X2-X2)2=

Example No.3
The following data present the yields in quintals of common ten subdivisions of equal area of
two agricultural plots:
Plot 1 6.2 5.7 6.5 6.0 6.3 5.8 5.7 6.0 6.0 5.8
Plot 2 5.6 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.7 6.0 5.5 5.7 5.5
Test whether two samples taken from two random populations have the same variance.
( F0.05 = 3.18 ).
Solution:
Plot 1 (X1) (X1-X1) (X1-X1)2 Plot 2 (X2) (X2-X2) (X2-X2)2

38 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

ΣX1= Σ(X1-X1)2= ΣX2= Σ(X2-X2)2=

EXERCISE NO: 13 Date: / /

TITLE: TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE.

❖ Computation of χ2 for one sample 2 x 2 and n x k contingency table.

The quantity χ2 describes the magnitude of the difference between theory and observation. It
is defined as,
( O – E )2
χ2 = ∑ ------------
E
Where, O = Observed frequencies.
E = Expected frequencies.
Where,
RT x CT
E = ------------
N
Where, E = Expected frequencies.
RT = The row total for the row containing the cell.
CT = The column total for the column containing the cell.
N = The total number of observations.
Example No: 1
Based on information on 1000 randomly selected fields about the tenancy status of the
cultivation of these fields and use of fertilizers, collected in an agro-economic survey, the
following classification was noted:
Owned Rented Total
Using fertilizers 416 184 600
Not using fertilizers 64 336 400
Total 480 520 1000

39 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Would you conclude that owner cultivators are more inclined towards the use of fertilizers at
5% level? (x2 0.05 – 3.84 ).
Solution: Let us take the hypothesis that ownership of fields and the use of fertilizers are
independent attributes.
O E ( O – E )2 (O – E )2 / E

∑(O – E )2 / E=

Example No: 2
From the data given below about the treatment of 250 patients suffering from a disease, state
whether the new treatment is superior to the conventional treatment:
Treatment Favourable Not Favourable Total
New 140 30 170
Conventional 60 20 80
Total 200 50 250
Would you conclude that owner cultivators are more inclined towards the use of fertilizers.
(x2 0.05 = 3.84 ).

Solution: Let us take the hypothesis that there is no significant difference between the new
and conventional treatment.
O E ( O – E )2 (O – E )2 / E

40 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 ∑(O – E )2 / E=

Example No: 3
In an anti malarial compaign in a certain area, quinine was administered to 812 persons out
of a total population of 3,248. The number of fever cases is shown below:
Treatment Fever No Fever Total
Quinine 20 792 812
No Quinine 220 2,216 2,436
Total 240 3,008 3,248
Discuss the usefulness of quinine in checking malaria. (x2 0.05 = 3.84 ).

Solution: Let us take the hypothesis that quinine is not effective in checking malaria.

O E ( O – E )2 (O – E )2 / E

∑(O – E )2 / E=

41 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

EXERCISE NO: 14 & 15 Date: / /
TITLE: COEFFICIENT OF CORRELATION.

❖ Calculation of correlation coefficient

1) Karl Pearson’s coefficient of correlation: The general form for computing

correlation coefficient is,
∑x y
r = -----------
N σx σy

By putting the value of σx and σy in the above equation,

r = _∑x y_____
√ ∑x2 X ∑y2
Example No: 1
Calculate Karl Pearson’s coefficient of correlation from the following data and interpret its
value:
Roll No. of Students 1 2 3 4 5
Marks in accountancy 48 35 17 23 47
Marks in Statistics 45 20 40 25 45
Solution:
Roll No. X X=(X-X) x2 Y Y=(Y-Y) y2 xy
1 48
2 35
3 17
4 23

42 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 5 47
N=5 ∑X = ∑x2 = ∑Y = ∑y2 = ∑xy =

Example No: 2
Below given the data regarding amount of groundnut yield in tons and fertilizers dose in
quintal per hectare. Calculate the correlation coefficient between these two variables
Yield in Tons 10 6 9 10 12 13 11 9
Fertilizers(qtl) 9 4 6 9 11 13 8 4

Solution:
X X=(X-X) x2 Y Y=(Y-Y) y2 xy
10 9
6 4
9 6
10 9
12 11
13 13
11 8
9 4
∑X = ∑x2 = ∑Y = ∑y2 = ∑xy =

43 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Example No: 3
The following table gives indices of industrial production of registered unemployed (in
hundred thousand). Calculate the value of the coefficient so obtained.
Year 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Index of Production 100 102 104 107 105 112 103 99
Number Unemployed 15 12 13 11 12 12 19 26

Solution:
X X=(X-X) x2 Y Y=(Y-Y) y2 xy
100 15
102 12
104 13
107 11
105 12
112 12
103 19
99 26
∑X = ∑x2 = ∑Y = ∑y2 = ∑xy =

44 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

2) Spearman’s Rank correlation coefficient:
Sometimes there are certain characteristics which cannot be measured quantitatively
i.e. they cannot be expressed in numbers, e.g. beauty, intelligence, honesty, skill etc.
Such characteristics are qualitative in nature and quality does not have any units to
measure. But we can rank the individuals possessing qualitative characters in ascending or
descending order. Then these ranks are considered as data and a correlation between the
ranks of two variables is obtained. This correlation between the ranks of two variables was
given by Spearman. Therefore, it is known as Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient.
The formula is given by,
6 ∑d2
r = 1 - ( -------------- )
n ( n2 - 1)
where, d = (R1 – R2) difference between ranks of two variables
n = number of pairs of observations
Example No.4
In selection of maximum yield varieties, the two agricultural scientists gave ranks to 8
different varieties. Calculate the correlation coefficient or tell whether their opinions are
more or less the same or different.
Rank by A Scientist 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Rank by B Scientist 4 5 6 7 8 2 3 1

Solution:
R1 R2 d = (R1 – R2) d2

45 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 ∑d2 =

Example No. 5
The value of two variables X and Y are given below. Find the rank correlation coefficient.
X 67 42 53 66 62 60 54 68
Y 78 80 77 73 75 68 63 74

Solution:
X Y Ascending Y R1 R2 d = (R1 – R2) d2
X (for X)
67 78 42 80 1 8
42 80 53 77 2 6
53 77 54 63 3 1
66 73 60 68 4 2
62 75 62 75 5 5
60 68 66 73 6 3
54 63 67 78 7 7
68 74 68 74 8 4
∑d2 =

46 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

EXERCISE NO: 16, 17 & 18
Date: / /
TITLE: COEFFICIENT OF REGRESSION.

❖ Computation of regression coefficient and regression equation Y = a +

bX
Regression equation of X on Y: σx
(X – X) = r ------- (Y – Y)
σy
σx
bxy = r ------ = ∑ xy
2
σy Σy

Regression equation of Y on X: σx
(Y – Y) = r ------- (X – ̅X)
σy
σy
byx = r ------ = ∑ xy
2
σx Σx
Example No.1
The following data relate to the number of seeds and germination percent for 9 samples is
given below.
Sample Name A B C D E F G H I
Number of seeds 50 60 50 60 80 50 80 40 70
Germination percent 30 60 40 50 60 30 70 50 60
a) Obtain the regression equation of germination percent on number of seeds of the
samples.
b) If the number of seeds is 65, what would be the germination percent?
Solution:
X x = (X - X) x2 Y y = (Y - Y) y2 xy

47 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

∑X = ∑x = ∑x2= ∑Y = ∑y = ∑y2= ∑xy=

Example No: 2
From the following data, calculate the regression equations taking deviation of items from
the mean of X and Y series:
X 6 2 10 4 8
Y 9 11 5 8 7

48 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Solution:
X x = (X-X) x2 Y y = (Y-Y) y2 xy

∑X = ∑x = ∑x2= ∑Y = ∑y = ∑y2= ∑xy=

49 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Example No.3
The following data are for the amount of water supplied in inches and the yield of red gram
in tons per acre:
Water(X) 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
Yield(Y) 5.3 5.7 6.5 7.2 8.2 8.7 8.4
Find the regression of yield of yield on water. Assuming that the relation between the two is
linear, calculate the expected yield when the amount of water supplied is 20 inches.
Solution:
X x = (X-X) x2 Y y = (Y-Y) y2 xy

∑X = ∑x = ∑x2= ∑Y = ∑y = ∑y2= ∑xy=

50 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Example No.3
The following data are for the amount of water supplied in inches and the yield of red gram
in tons per acre:
Water(X) 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
Yield(Y) 5.3 5.7 6.5 7.2 8.2 8.7 8.4
Find the regression of yield of yield on water. Assuming that the relation between the two is
linear, calculate the expected yield when the amount of water supplied is 20 inches.
Solution:
X x = (X-X) x2 Y y = (Y-Y) y2 xy

∑X = ∑x = ∑x2= ∑Y = ∑y = ∑y2= ∑xy=

51 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Example No.4
The following table shows the ages (X) and blood pressure (Y) of 8 persons.
X 52 63 45 36 72 65 47 25
Y 62 53 51 25 79 43 60 33
Obtain regression equation of Y on X and find the expected blood pressure of a person who
is 49 years old.
Solution:
X x = (X-X) x2 Y y = (Y-Y) y2 xy

∑X = ∑x = ∑x2= ∑Y = ∑y = ∑y2= ∑xy=

52 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Example No: 5
In a correlation study the following values are obtained:
X Y
Mean 65 67
Standard Deviation 2.5 3.5
Coefficient of Correlation 0.8
Find the two regression equations that are associated with the above values.
Solution:

53 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Example No: 6
You are given the following data:
X Y
Mean 36 85
Standard Deviation 11 8
Correlation coefficient between X and Y = 0.66
(i) Find two regression equations, and
(ii) Estimate the value of X when Y = 75.
Solution:

54 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

EXERCISE NO: 19 Date: / /
TITLE: PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS.

❖ Fitting of Binomial, Poisson and Normal distributions.

1) Binomial Distribution:
The general form of Binomial distribution is given by the equation,
P(r) = nCr qn-r pr
The equation for successive terms of expansion is,
N ( q + p )n = N (qn + nC1 qn-1 p1 + nC2 qn-2 p2 + …… + nCr qn-r pr + …. + pn )

Example No: 1
The following data show the number of seeds germinating out of 10 on damp filter for 80 set
of seeds. Fit a binomial distribution to this data:
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Y 6 20 28 12 8 6 0 0 0 0 0
Solution:
Apply formula, Mean = np
q=1-p
The Binomial distribution to be fitted the data is N ( q + p )n
Where, N = 80 and n = 10
Theoretical frequencies = N nCr qn-r pr
By expanding the equations N ( q + p )n we shall get the expected frequencies of 0, 1,
2, …., 10 success.
55 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune
Example No: 2
Eight coins are tossed at a time 256 times. Number of heads observed at each throw is
recorded and the results are given below. Find the expected frequencies. What are the
theoretical values of mean and standard deviation? Calculate also the mean and standard
deviation of the observed frequencies.
No. of heads at a throw Frequency
0 2
1 6
2 30
3 52
4 67
5 56
6 32

56 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 7 10
8 1
Soluition:
Theoretical frequencies = N nCr qn-r pr
N = 256 and n = 8
By expanding the equations N ( q + p )n we shall get the expected frequencies of 0, 1,
2, …., 8 success.
Mean = np
∑f.d
Mean = A + -----------
N
____________________
σ = √ ∑f.d2 _ ∑fd 2

N N

57 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

2) Poisson Distribution:
The general formula of Poisson distribution is, e-m mr
P(r) = ---------------
r!
Where, r = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, …..
e = 2.7183 (the base of natural logarithms)
m = the mean of the Poisson distribution i.e. np
∑fX
m = ----------
N
The equation for successive terms of expansion is,
N e-m mr m2 m3 mr
------------- = N e-m ( 1 + m + ------- + -------- + …… + -------- + ….. )
r! 2! 3! r!
Example No: 3
The number of defects in sealing the bottles of food products in a sample of 330 units of
manufactured products was found as follows:
Number of defects 0 1 2 3 4
Number of units 214 92 20 3 1
Fit a Poisson distribution to the data and test for goodness of fit.
Solution:
X f fX
0 214
1 92

58 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 2 20
3 3
4 1
N = 330 ∑fX =

Example No: 4
The following mistakes per page were observed in a book:
Number of mistakes per page 0 1 2 3 4
Number of times the mistakes occured 211 90 19 5 0
Fit a Poisson distribution to the data and test for goodness of fit.
Solution:
X f F*X
0 211
1 90
2 19
3 5
4 0
N = 325 ∑fX =

59 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

3) Normal Distribution:
The general form of Normal distribution,
-1 X-µ
1 ---- [ -------- ]2
P(X) = ------ e 2 σ
σ √2π

The height of the ordinate is given by the equation,

-1 X-µ
1 ---- [-------- ]2
Y = ------ e 2 σ
σ √2π
Procedure for fitting the Normal curve : Steps in computing height of ordinates (expected
frequency) is given below:
1. The height of the ordinate is given by the formula,
-1 X-µ
1 ---- [ -------- ]2
Y = ------ e 2 σ
σ √2π
2. Calculate actual mean from deviation of assumed mean and standard deviation.
∑f.d
Mean = A + -----------
N
____________________
σ = √ ∑f.d2 _ ∑fd 2
N N
3. Calculate mean ordinate height.
Ni
Mean ordinate height = 0.399 -------
Σ
60 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune
4. Find the mid-points of the various classes.
5. Take the deviations of each of the mid-points from the mean i.e., x = (X – X).
6. Divide each value of x by σ i.e., x / σ.

7. Find the value of -1 X-µ for each mid-point.

2
---- [ ---------- ]
e 2 σ
8. Multiply each value of the above sr.no. 7 by the value of the mean ordinate height.
The resultant figures are the values of the heights of the ordinates at various distances
from the mean or the expected frequencies of the normal distribution at various class
mid-points.

Example No. 5
Fit a normal curve to the following data by the method of ordinates:
Variable 60 - 62 63 - 65 66 - 68 69 - 71 72 - 74
Frequency 5 18 42 27 8
Find expected frequency and draw normal curve.
Solution:
Variable (X) Mid-value f d = (X-A)/i fd fd2

N= ∑fd= ∑fd2=

61 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

The following table shows how to obtain the height of ordinates at mid-points of various
class intervals:
Variable Mid-points x = (X-X) X/σ e -1/2*(x/2)2 Ht. of ordinate or
expected frequency
(Col.5*Mean ordinate ht.)
1 2 3(X-axis) 4 5 6
60 – 62 61
63 – 65 64
66 – 68 67
69 – 71 70
72 - 74 73
N=

62 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

EXERCISE NO: 20 Date: / /
TITLE: TIME SERIES ANALYSIS.

❖ Measurement of trend – by method of semi-averages, moving averages

and least squares.

Method of Semi-Averages:
Example No. 1
Fit a trend line to the following data by the method of semi-averages:
Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sales of Firm A 102 105 114 110 108 116 112
(thousand units)
Solution:

Example No. 2

63 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Fit a trend line to the following data by the method of semi-averages to the data given below.
Estimate the sales for the year 2019.
Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Sales (Rs. Lakhs) 412 438 444 454 470 482 490 500
Solution:

Method of Moving Averages:

It is necessary to select a period for moving averages such as 3 yearly moving
averages, 5 yearly moving averages, 8 yearly moving averages, etc. The period of moving
average is to be decided in the light of the cycle. Since the moving average method is most
commonly applied to data which are characterized by cyclical movements.
The necessary period will range between three and ten years for general business
series. The 3-yearly moving average shall be computed as follows:
a+b+c, b+c+d, c+d+e, d + e + f …..
3 3 3 3
and for 5-yearly moving average
a+b+c+d+e, b+c+d+e+f, c + d + e + f + g , …...
5 5 5
Odd period of moving averages
Example No. 3
Calculate 3-yearly, 5-yearly and 7-yearly moving averages of the number of students
studying in a college shown below and draw the trends.
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
No. of 332 317 357 392 402 405 410 427 405 438
students

Solution:Calculation of 3-yearly, 5-yearly and 7-yearly moving averages

Year No. of 3-yearly 3-yearly 5-yearly 5-yearly 7-yearly 7-yearly
moving moving moving
Students totals totals totals
average average averages

64 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 2001 332
2002 317
2003 357
2004 392
2005 402
2006 405
2007 410
2008 427
2009 405
2010 438

Even period of moving averages

If the moving average is an even period moving average, say, 4-yearly or 6-yearly,
the moving total and moving average which are placed at the centre of the time span from
which they are computed fall between two time periods. This placement is inconvenient since
the moving average so placed would not coincide with the original time period. We,
therefore, synchronize moving averages and original data. This process is called centering
and always consists of taking a two-period moving average of the moving averages.
Example No. 4
Estimate the trend values using the data given by taking a 4-yearly moving average:
Year 2001 200 2003 2004 200 2006 200 2008 200 2010 201 2012 201 2014
2 5 7 9 1 3

Valu 12 25 39 54 70 87 105 100 82 65 49 34 20 7

e
Solution: Calculation 4-yearly moving averages
Year Value 4-yearly moving 4-yearly moving 4-yearly moving average
totals average centered
2001 12
2002 25
2003 39
2004 54
2005 70
2006 87

65 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 2007 105
2008 100
2009 82
2010 65
2011 49
2012 34
2013 20
2014 7

Computation of linear trend by Method of Least Squares:

Example No. 5
Calculate the linear trend (straight line) equation and trend values for given figures of
production (in thousands quintals) of a sugar factory:
Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Production 80 90 92 83 94 99 92
(in ‘000 qtls)
Also,
(i) Plot these figures on a graph and show the actual line and trend line.
(ii) Estimate the production in 2020.
Solution: Fitting a straight line trend
Production Trend Values
Year (in ‘000 qtls) X XY X2 Yc
Y
2011 80 -3
2012 90 -2
2013 92 -1
2014 83 0
2015 94 +1
2016 99 +2
2017 92 +3
N=7 ΣY = ΣX = 0 ΣXY = ΣX2 = ΣYc =
66 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune
The equation of the straight line is Yc = a + bX
Since ΣX = 0 ; a = ΣY , b = ΣXY
N ΣX2

Second Degree Parabola:

The simplest form of non-linear trend is the second degree parabola. The equation
of which is written in the form:
Yc = a + bX + cX2
Where, Y – Intercept/trend value, b is the slope of the curve and c is the rate of change in the
slope.
The values of a, b and c can be determined by solving the following three normal
equations simultaneously.
ΣY = Na + bΣX + cΣX2
ΣXY = aΣX + bΣX2 + cΣX3
ΣX2Y = aΣX2 + bΣX3 + cΣX4
Example No. 6
The prices of a commodity during 2011-16 are given below. Fit a parabola Y = a + bX + cX2
to these data. Estimate the price of the commodity for the year 2017.
Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Prices 100 107 128 140 181 192
Solution:
To determine the values of a, b and c, solve the following normal equations.
ΣY = Na + bΣX + cΣX2
ΣXY = aΣX + bΣX2 + cΣX3
ΣX2Y = aΣX2 + bΣX3 + cΣX4
Year Prices X X2 X3 X4 XY X2Y Trend
Y Values

67 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 Yc
2011 100
2012 107
2013 128
2014 140
2015 181
2016 192
N=6 ΣY= ΣX= ΣX2= ΣX3= ΣX4= ΣXY= ΣX2Y= ΣYc=

68 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

EXERCISE NO: 21 Date: / /
TITLE: TIME SERIES ANALYSIS.

❖ Measurement of trend - Fitting of modified exponential trends, Gompertz

and Logistic growth curves.

Method of Exponential trends

The equation of the exponential curve is of the form Yc = abX where Y is the
intercept/trend value.
Putting the equation in logarithmic form, we get
logY = loga + X logb
To obtain the values of a and b,
ΣlogY = N loga + logb ΣX

Σ(X logY) = loga ΣX + logb ΣX2

From above equations, we get
loga = logY logb = Σ(X logY)
N ΣX2
Example No. 1
The sales of a company in lakhs of rupees for the years 2011-2017 is given below:
Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sales 32 47 65 88 132 190 275
69 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune
Find the trend values by using the equation Yc = a bX and estimate the value for 2019.
Solution:
Year Sales (Y) X logY X2 X logY Trend Values
(Yc)
2011 32
2012 47
2013 65
2014 88
2015 132
2016 190
2017 275
N=7 ΣlogY= ΣX2= ΣX logy=

70 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

EXERCISE NO: 22 Date: / /
TITLE: TIME SERIES ANALYSIS.

❖ Seasonal variations by method of simple averages and ratio to moving

average method.

Method of Simple Averages

Example No. 1
Calculate seasonal indices for various quarters using method of simple average. Sale of
vegetables (in lakhs) of a farmer from year 2011 to 2014 are given in the table.
Year 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
2011 3.7 4.1 3.3 3.5
2012 3.7 3.9 3.6 3.6
2013 4.0 4.1 3.3 3.1
2014 3.3 4.4 4.0 4.0

Solution:
Year 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Total of Seasonal Seasonal
Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 4 Quarters average indices
2011 3.7 4.1 3.3 3.5
2012 3.7 3.9 3.6 3.6
2013 4.0 4.1 3.3 3.1
71 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune
2014 3.3 4.4 4.0 4.0
Total
Average

Seasonal average
Seasonal Variation index = --------------------------------------- X 100
Average of seasonal averages

Example No. 2
Consumption of monthly food grains (in kg) of a family during 2011 to 2015 is given below:
Yea Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept Oct. Nov. Dec.
r .
2011 318 281 278 250 231 216 223 245 269 302 325 347
2012 342 309 299 268 249 236 242 262 288 321 342 364
2013 367 328 320 287 269 251 259 284 309 345 367 394
2014 392 349 342 311 290 273 282 305 328 364 379 417
2015 420 378 370 334 314 296 305 330 356 396 422 452
Find out seasonal variation by the method of simples monthly averages.
Solution:
Monthly consumption of food grains in kg Total Seasonal Seasonal
Months for 5 average Variation
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
years Index
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June

72 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 July
Aug
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Total
Average

Ratio to Moving Average Method

Example No. 3
Calculate the seasonal indices by the ratio to moving average method from the following
data.
Year 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
2016 68 62 61 63
2017 65 58 66 61
2018 68 63 63 67
Solution:
Year Quarter Figures 4 figure 4 figure 2 figure 2 figure Given figure
moving moving moving moving as % of
totals average totals average moving
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) average
(6)=(1)/(5)
I 68
2016 II 62
III 61
IV 63
I 65
2017 II 58
III 66
IV 61

73 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 I 68
2018 II 63
III 63
IV 67

Calculation of Seasonal Index

Percentage to moving average
Year
1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
2016 -- --
2017
2018 -- --
Total
Average
Seasonal Index
Average Total
Average of averages = --------------------
4

1st Quarter average

st
Seasonal Index of 1 Quarter = --------------------------- -------
Average of averages

74 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

EXERCISE NO: 23 Date: / /
TITLE: TIME SERIES ANALYSIS.

❖ Seasonal variations by ratio to trend method and method of link relatives.

Ratio to Trend Method

Example No. 1
Find seasonal variations by the ratio to trend method from the data given below:
Year 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
2011 30 40 36 34
2012 34 52 50 44
2013 40 58 54 48
2014 54 76 68 62
2015 80 92 86 82
Solution:
For determining seasonal variation by ratio to trend method, first we will determine the trend
values for yearly data and then convert it to quarterly data.
Fitting a straight line trend
Yearly Yearly Trend
2
Year Totals average X XY X Values
Y Yc

75 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 2011 140 35 -2
2012 180 45 -1
2013 200 50 0
2014 260 65 +1
2015 340 85 +2
N=7 ΣY = ΣXY = ΣX2 =
The equation of the straight line is Yc = a + bX
Since ΣX = 0 ; a = ΣY , b = ΣXY
N ΣX2

Quarterly trend values

Year 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

76 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

Link Relative Method
Example No. 2
Apply the method of link relatives to the following data and calculate seasonal indices.
Year 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
2011 6.0 6.5 7.8 8.7
2012 5.4 7.9 8.4 7.3
2013 6.8 6.5 9.3 6.4
2014 7.2 5.8 7.5 8.5
2015 6.6 7.3 8.0 7.1
Solution: Calculation of Seasonal indices by method of link relatives
1) Calculate the link relatives of the seasonal figures.
Current season’s figure
Link relatives = ---------------------------------- x 100
Previous season’s figure
2) Calculate the average of link relatives for each season.
3) Convert these averages into chain relatives on the base of the first season.
4) Calculate the chain relatives of the first season on the base of last season.
5) For correction, the chain relatives of the first season calculated by the first method are
deducted from the chain relatives calculated by the second method.
6) Express the corrected chain relatives as percentages of their aveages.

Year 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter

2011 -- 108.3 120.0 111.5
2012
2013

77 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 2014
2015
Season total
Arithmetic
average
Chain 100
relatives
Corrected
chain
relatives
Seasonal
indices

EXERCISE NO: 24 Date: / /

TITLE: TIME SERIES ANALYSIS.

❖ Measurement of cyclic and irregular variation.

Cyclic Variation:
Example No. 1
Calculate the cyclical indices for given figures of production (in thousands quintals) of a
sugar factory:
Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Production 80 90 92 83 94 99 92
(in ‘000 qtls)

Solution: Calculation of linear trend and cyclical indices

Production Linear Trend Cyclical
Year (in ‘000 qtls) X XY X2 Values indices
Y Yc
2011 80 -3
2012 90 -2
2013 92 -1
2014 83 0
2015 94 +1
2016 99 +2
78 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune
 2017 92 +3
N=7 ΣY = ΣX = 0 ΣXY = ΣX2 = ΣYc =
The equation of the straight line is Yc = a + bX
Since ΣX = 0 ; a = ΣY , b = ΣXY
N ΣX2

Original data (Yearly)

Cyclical indices = ------------------------------ x 100
Estimated trend values

79 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 Irregular Variation:
Example No. 2
Calculate the irregular deviation by 5 yearly moving averages of supply and price of a certain
commodity given below. Also calculate the Karl Pearson’s coefficient of correlation for the
indices.
Year 2001 200 2003 200 2005 200 2007 200 2009 201 2011 201 2013 201 2015
2 4 6 8 0 2 4
Suppl 91 98 95 92 93 96 102 107 104 98 100 108 116 114 111
y
Price 117 97 102 108 105 96 77 68 77 93 89 83 78 84 95

Solution:
5- Deviation 5- Deviation
yearly of actual yearly of actual
Years Supply moving values Prices moving values
average from x2 average from y2 xy
moving moving
average average
(X) (x) (Y) (y)
2001 91 117
2002 98 97
2003 95 102
2004 92 108
2005 93 105
2006 96 96
2007 102 77
2008 107 68
2009 104 77
2010 98 93

80 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 2011 100 89
2012 108 83
2013 116 78
2014 114 84
2015 111 95

Deviation of actual values from moving average = Actual value – moving average

Karl Pearson’s coefficient of correlation is calculated by,

r = _∑x y_____
√ ∑x2 X ∑y2

EXERCISE NO: 25 Date: / /

TITLE: INDEX NUMBER ANALYSIS.

❖ Construction of Index Numbers. Procedure of base shifting, deflation of

indices.

Index Numbers – Definition:

An index number is a statistical measure designed to show changes in a variable or a group
of related variables with respect to time.
Uses of Index Numbers:
1) It helps in framing suitable policies.
2) It reveals trends.
3) It is important in forecasting future economic activity.
4) It is useful in deflating or to adjust original data for price changes, cost of living
changes, etc.
Problems in the construction of Index numbers
1) The purpose of index
2) Selection of a base period
3) Selection of number of items
4) Price quotations
5) Choice of an average
6) Selection of an appropriate weights

81 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 7) Selection of an appropriate formula
Methods of Constructing Index Numbers
A) Unweighted Index Numbers
1) Simple Aggregative method
2) Simple average of relatives
B) Weighted Index Numbers
1) Weighted aggregative
2) Weighted average of relatives

EXAMPLES:
Simple Aggregative Method
Σp1
P01 = ----------- x 100
Σp0
Where,
P01 – index number for current year prices
Σp1 – total of current year prices for various commodities
Σp0 – total of base year price for the same commodities

Example No. 1
For the data given below, calculate the index number by taking:
i) 2011 as the base year
ii) 2018 as the base year
iii) 2011 to 2013 as the base period
Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Price of 4 5 6 7 8 10 9 10 11
commodity ‘X’

Solution:
i) Index Numbers taking 2011 as the base year and 2018 as the base year
Year Price of Commodity Index Numbers Index Numbers
‘X’ (2011 = 100) (2018 = 100)
82 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune
 2011 4 (4/4)x100 = 100
2012 5
2013 6
2014 7
2015 8
2016 10
2017 9
2018 10 (10/10)x100 = 100
2019 11

ii) Index Numbers taking 2011 to 2013 as the base period

When 2011 to 2013 is to be taken as base period it means we have to take average
of 2011, 2012 and 2013.
Average = (4 + 5 + 6) / 3 = 5
Hence 2012 will be taken as 100.
Year Price of Commodity ‘X’ Index Numbers
(2012 = 100)
2011 4
2012 5 (5/5)x100 = 100
2013 6
2014 7
2015 8
2016 10
2017 9
2018 10
2019 11
Base shifting method: Example No. 2
The following are the index numbers of prices (2001 = 100):
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Index 100 110 120 200 400 410 400 380 370 340
Shift the base from 2001 to 2007 and recast the index numbers.
Solution:
Year Index Index Numbers
83 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune
 (2001 = 100) (2012 = 100)
2001 100
2002 110
2003 120
2004 200
2005 400
2006 410
2007 400 (400/400)x100 = 100
2008 380
2009 370
2010 340

Index Number for 2001 100

Index Number for 2001 = ---------------------------------- x 100 = ------------ x 100 = 25.0
Index Number for 2007 400

Example No. 3
The following table gives the annual income of a worker and the general index numbers of
price during 2011-2019. Prepare index numbers to show the changes in the real income.
Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Income 3600 4200 5000 5500 6000 6400 6800 7200 7500
Price Index No. 100 120 145 160 250 320 450 530 600

Solution: Index number showing changes in the real income of the worker
Year Income Price Index Real income Real income index
number
No.
2011 3600 100 (3600/100)x100 = (3600/3600)x100 =
3600.00 100
2012 4200 120 (4200/120)x100 = (3500/3600)x100 =
3500.00 97.22
2013 5000 145 (5000/145)x100 = (3448.27/3600)x100
3448.27 = 95.78
2014 5500 160

84 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 2015 6000 250
2016 6400 320
2017 6800 450
2018 7200 530
2019 7500 600

DR. D. Y. PATIL COLLEGE OF

AGRICULTURE BUSINESS MANAGEMENT, AKURDI, PUNE – 44
____________________________________________________________

INDEX
COURSE NO: STAT-241 TITLE: BUSINESS STATISTICS
CREDIT : 3(1+2) SEMESTER: IV(New)

SR. NAME OF THE EXERCISE PAGE DATE SIGN.

NO. NO.
1. Classification of data. 01 – 06
Problems on exclusive and inclusive classification
2. Diagrammatic and Graphic Presentation. 07 – 10
3. Measures of Central Tendency.
Computation of AM, GM, HM, Median, Mode for 11 - 13
discrete series
4. Measures of Central Tendency.
Computation of AM, GM, HM, Median, Mode for 14 - 17
continuous series
5, 6 & Measures of Dispersion.
The estimation of Range, QD, MD, SD, Variance
7 18 - 22
Standard error and Coefficient of MD for discrete
series
8, 9 & Measures of Dispersion.
The computation of Range, QD, MD, SD, Variance,

85 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 10 Standard error and Coefficient of MD for continuous 23 - 27
type grouped data
11 Test of Significance
Students ‘t’ test for one sample test, paired test and 28 - 34
unpaired test
12 Test of Significance. 35 - 37
Variance ratio test or ‘F’ test
13 Test of Significance.
Computation of χ2 for one sample 2 x 2 and n x k 38 - 40
contingency table
14 & 15 Coefficient of Correlation. 41 - 45
Calculation of correlation coefficient
16, 17 Coefficient of Regression.
& 18 Computation of regression coefficient and regression 46 - 53
equation Y = a + bX
19 Probability distributions. 54 - 61
Fitting of Binomial, Poisson and Normal distributions
Time Series Analysis
20 Measurement of Trend – by method of semi- 62 - 67
averages, moving averages and least squares
Time Series Analysis
21 Fitting of Modified exponential, Gompertz and 68 - 69
Logistic growth curve
Time Series Analysis
22 Seasonal variations by method of simple averages 70 - 73
and ratio to moving average method
Time Series Analysis
23 Seasonal variations by ratio to trend method and 74 - 76
method of link relatives
24 Time Series Analysis 77 - 79
Measurement of cyclic and irregular variation
25 Index Number Analysis
Construction of Index Numbers. Procedure of base 80 - 83
shifting, deflation of indices

86 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that Shri./Miss. _________________________________

Reg. No. ________ a student of 4th semester, B.Sc.(Hons)Agri. Business Management

has completed all the exercises satisfactorily of the Course No. STAT-241 during the

year ____________ .

Signature of the course teacher

Prof. M. B. Nichit

87 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 DR. D. Y. PATIL COLLEGE OF
AGRICULTURE BUSINESS MANAGEMENT, AKURDI, PUNE – 44
____________________________________________________________
INDEX
COURSE NO: STAT-231 TITLE: STATISTICAL METHODS
CREDIT : 3(1+2) SEMESTER: IV(New)
Excise. NAME OF THE EXERCISE PAGE DATE SIGN.
NO. NO.
1 &2 Classification of data.
Problems on exclusive and inclusive classification
3, 4 Diagrammatic and Graphic Presentation.
5, 6, 7 Measures of Central Tendency.
Computation of AM, GM, HM, Median, Mode for
discrete series
8,,9 &10 Measures of Central Tendency.
Computation of AM, GM, HM, Median, Mode for
continuous series
11, 12 & Measures of Dispersion: Estimation of Range, QD,
MD, SD, Variance Standard error and Coefficient
13
of MD for discrete series
14,15& Measures of Dispersion:computation of Range,
QD, MD, SD, Variance, Standard error
16
and Coefficient of MD for continuous
type grouped data
11 Test of Significance: Students ‘t’ test for one
sample test, paired test and unpaired test
12 Test of Significance: Variance ratio test or ‘F’ test

88 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune

 13 Test of Significance: Computation of χ2 for one
sample 2 x 2 and n x k contingency table
14 & 15 Coefficient of Correlation.
Calculation of correlation coefficient
16 Coefficient of Regression.
Computation of regression coefficient and
regression equation Y = a + bX

CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that Shri./Miss. _________________________________ Reg. No.
________ a student of 3trd semester, B.Sc.(Hons)Agri. Business Management has completed all the
exercises satisfactorily of the Course No. STAT-241 during the year ____________ .

Signature of the course teacher

Prof. M. B. Nichit

89 Prof. M. B. Nichit, DYPABM, Akurdi, Pune