Chapter 6 Investment
Chapter 6 Investment
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This implies that if , increases then will increase and thus + > , that is,
output should increase.
Note that the notation used above assumes that investment undertaken today does not really
become productive until the future.
o Investment can be undertaken not only by firms or households, but also by the government.
For example, looking at Business Fixed Investment of different countries, government sector
undertakes significant proportion of this category.
o Investment makes up about 20% of GDP, and although obviously not as large as
consumption it is important because investment over long periods determines the size of the
stock of capital and thus helps determine long-run growth.
o Investment spending is very volatile and thus responsible for much of the fluctuations of GDP
across the business cycle.
As a result, understanding what factors affect investment is crucial not only because
it is part of GDP but b/c it is crucial in determining fluctuations and growth in GDP.
o In this chapter, therefore, we first examine the components of investment and then study
what determines investment by referring to the leading theories of investment.
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Capital demand ( )
0 Capital stock, K
Fig:6.1: The Capital Rental Market and the decision of a production firm
To see what variables influence the equilibrium rental price, , let’s consider the
Cobb-Douglas production function as a good approximation of how the actual
economy turns capital and labor into goods and services.
The Cobb-Douglas production function is: = ,
where Y is output, K capital, L labor, and A a parameter measuring the level of
technology, and a parameter between 0 and 1 that measures capital’s share of
output.
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Rental firms invest in new capital when the benefit exceeds the cost of doing so.
/ - is the benefit of capital rental firms earn from renting a unit of capital to
production firms.
For each period that a firm rents out a unit of capital, the rental firm bears three
costs:
i. The interest cost: when a rental firm borrows to buy a unit of capital to rent out,
it must pay interest on loan, which equals the purchase price of a unit of capital PK
times the nominal interest rate, i, so . Notice that this interest cost would be the
same even if the rental firm buys capital using cash on hand because it losses the
interest it could have earned by depositing this cash in bank.
ii. Depreciation defined as the fraction of value lost per period because of the wear
and tear while the capital is rented out, so the dollar cost of depreciation is .
iii. Capital Loss: While the rental firm is renting out the capital, the price of capital
may change. If the price of capital rises, the firm gains, because the firm’s asset has
risen in value, and hence this reduces the firm’s cost and vice versa. The cost of the
loss or gain on the price of capital is denoted as −∆ .
Therefore, the total nominal cost of renting out a unit of capital for one
period is: = + − ∆ = ( + −∆ / )
For example, consider the cost of capital to a car-rental company. The company buys
cars for $10,000 each and rents them out to other businesses. The company faces an
interest rate of 10 percent per year. Moreover, car prices are rising at 6 percent per
year and cars depreciate at 20 percent per year. Calculate the company’s nominal
cost of capital?
=$ +$ −$ =$
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To make the expression simple, assume that the price of capital rises with the price of
other goods. Thus, ∆ / equals the overall rate of inflation, . Because − = , we
can write the cost of capital as:
= ( + )
Finally, we want the real cost of capital- the cost of capital relative to the price of
other goods in the economy.
Where r is the real interest rate and / equals the relative price of capital.
This equation states that the real cost of capital positively depends on the
relative price of capital, the real interest rate and the depreciation rate.
For each unit of capital, the firm earns real revenue & bears the real cost
( + ).
= − ( + ) , B/c = .
Thus, the change in the capital stock, called net investment on new capital
depends on the difference between the and the real cost of capital or the
profit rate.
If the > the real cost of capital, the firm is making profits on the
last unit of capital it is using and it could increase profits by investing more on
new capita. In other words, if the profit rate is positive then increasing capital is
profitable.
If the < real cost of capital, firms let their capital stock shrink.
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Now, we can derive the investment function in the Neoclassical model of investment.
= ∆ = – ( + ) ,
where In (.) is the function showing how net investment responds to the incentive to invest.
Total spending on business fixed investment (i.e., gross investment) is the sum of net investment
and the replacement of depreciated capital. The gross investment function, I, therefore, is:
=∆ +
∴ = − ( + ) +
Business fixed investment depends on the marginal product of capital, the cost of
capital and the amount of depreciation.
This model shows how investment depends on the interest rate. An increase in the real
interest rate raises the cost of capital therefore reduces the amount of profit from
owing capital and reduces the incentive to accumulate more capital, the converse holds
true.
The investment function is down ward sloping to the interest rate. And an increase
in the marginal productivity of capital shifts the investment function outward at any
given interest rate.
Investment, I
Fig: 2.2: The investment function and marginal productivity of capital
The above figure presents the investment function. Any event that raises the marginal
product of capital / Eg: technological innovation that increases the production
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Tax laws influence firms’ incentives to accumulate capital in many ways. We can
amend the profit rate relationship we derived above to include the effects of government
taxes. Let τ be the tax rate on firm revenues. Then, the after tax profit rate of
capital is;
= (1 − τ) − ( + )
So we can see that the tax reduces the profits earned from capital by reducing the
Marginal benefit of using and owning capital.
Here we can consider three of the most important tax policies affecting investment:
i. Corporate Income Tax
The Corporate income tax is a tax on corporate profits. An increase in the Corporate
income tax will effectively increase τ and hence decreases profit and thereby investment.
This sort of policy will discourage the accumulation of capital.
This is a tax provision policy that reduces a firm’s taxes by a certain amount for each
dollar spent on capital goods. This effectively lowers τ, reducing the cost of capital and
causing an increase in investment. This sort of policy will encourage the accumulation
of capital.
iii. Tax Treatment of Depreciation
Corporate profits are taxed and profits are just revenue minus costs. Part of the costs of
production firms is depreciation on capital so that firms are allowed to include
depreciation of their capital as a cost when calculating the amount of profit to be taxed.
But depreciation is calculated using historical cost, not replacement cost which tends
to understates the true cost of depreciation in periods of high inflation, which
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overstates the profits being made. This means a tax is levied even if the economic profit
is zero, which effectively increases τ, reducing investment, and discouraging the
accumulation of capital.
Summary of Business Fixed Investment
i. Higher interest rate increases the cost of capital and reduces business fixed
investment.
ii. Improvements in technology and tax policies, such as the corporate income tax
and investment tax credit, shift the business fixed investment function.
iii. During booms higher employment increases the and therefore, increases
business fixed investment.
This theory argues that firms produce output and they need capital to produce this
output. It is likely that a firm has some desired stock of capital in mind when producing
any given amount of output. If the desired capital stock differs from what the firm
actually has, then it must change its capital stock and how much it changes it is the
amount of investment.
The accelerator model begins with an assumption that firms’ desired capital-output
ratio is roughly constant. If output is required to be produced and is capital-output
ratio (which is equal to / ), the required amount of capital to produce output will
be given by the following equation:
= …………………………………………….. ( )
Under the assumption of constant capital-output ratio, changes in output are made
possible by changes in the stock of capital. Thus, when income is as above, then
required stock of capita = . When output or income is equal to then
required stock of capital will be
= ……………………………………… ( )
Hence, the increase in the stock of capital in period is given by the following
equation: − = − ………………………… ( )
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− = ( − );
Where, ∆ = − = & ∆ = −
Therefore, = ∆ ……………………… ( )
Equation 4 above reveals that as a result of increase in income in any year from a previous
year – , increase in the investment will be times more than the increase in income. Hence, it
is i.e., capital-output ratio which represents the magnitude of the accelerator.
Many economists see a link b/n fluctuations in investment and fluctuations in the stock
market. The term stock refers to the shares in the ownership of corporations, and the
stock market is the market in which these shares are traded. Stock prices tend to be
high when firms have many opportunities for profitable investment, because these profit
opportunities mean higher future income for the shareholders. Thus, stock prices reflect
the incentive to invest.
The Nobel-Prize-winning economist James Tobin proposed that firms base their
investment decisions on the following ratio, which is now called Tobin’s q:
Numerator: the stock market value of the economy’s capital stock (i.e., it is the
number of shares outstanding times their market price).
Denominator: the actual cost to replace the capital goods that were purchased
when the stock was issued.
Tobin reasoned that net investment should depend on whether q is greater or less
than one.
If > 1, investors buy more capital to raise the market value of their firms.
If < 1, the stock market values capital at less than its replacement cost and
thus, firms will not replace their capital stock as it wears out.
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As such, the q equation provides a correct indication of the current worth and likely
prospects for the business. If a firm faces a q>1, then this is a signal that it should
buy additional capital because the present value of the future earnings from such
capital will be greater than its cost.
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The stock of houses is fixed in the short-term, and so supply curve of existing houses
is vertical.
The demand for housing is of the normal downward sloping form in the relative
price of housing.
ii. The Supply of New Housing -Determining Investment
We assume the law of supply that supplying extra quantities of new housing is more
expensive because of diminishing returns to the factors of production used by the firms.
That is, the existing resources become more expensive as firms bid up their prices to get
them, additional factors require higher payments to induce them to supply their
services, or the additional factors are just not as productive as existing resources used.
The Marginal benefit for firms or developers from building new housing is the relative
price of housing. To induce construction firms to build new houses the Marginal benefit,
or relative price, of building new housing has to be higher than the marginal cost. This
tells us that supply of new housing curve is upward sloping in the relative price of new
housing. Look the following figure.
Demand
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understand better the factors which influence the level of inventory investment. There
are four reasons for holding inventories:
i. Production Smoothing: Sales fluctuate, but many firms find it cheaper to produce
at a steady rate. That means,
When sales < production, inventories rise.
When sales > production, inventories fall.
ii. Inventories as a Factor of Production
Firms carry inventories of spare parts in case a machine breaks down, so that
the entire assembly line does not come to a stop.
Samples for retail sales purposes
iii. Stock-Out Avoidance
To avoid lost sales and profits when sales may be unexpectedly high e.g. a book retailer
may carry multiple copies of a book if they are not sure how popular the book will be.
iv. Work in Process: Partly completed products are counted as inventories (i.e., Goods
not yet completed are counted in inventory).
2.3.3.2. Accelerator Model of Inventory Investment
The accelerator model assumes that firms hold a stock of inventories that is
proportional to the firm’s level of output. Thus, if N is the economy’s stock of inventories
and Y is output, then =
Therefore, = ∆ = ∆
The accelerator model predicts that inventory investment is proportional to the change
in output.
When output rises, firms want to hold a larger stock of inventory, so inventory
investment is high.
When output falls, firms want to hold a smaller stock of inventory, so they allow
their inventory to run down, and inventory investment is negative.
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When the interest rate rises, holding inventories becomes more costly, so rational
firms try to reduce their stock. Therefore, an increase in the real interest rate depresses
inventory investment.
Review Exercises
1. In the Neoclassical model of business fixed investment, under what conditions will firms
find it profitable to add to their capital stock?
2. What is Tobin’s q, and what does it has to do with investment?
3. Explain why an increase in the interest rate reduces the amount of residential investment?
4. Use the Neoclassical model of investment to explain the impact of each of the following
events on the real rental price of capital, the cost of capital and investment:
A. Anti-inflationary monetary policy raises the real interest rate
B. An earthquake destroys some of the capital stock.
C. Immigration of foreign workers increases the size of the labor force.
5. Suppose that the firm faces a Cobb–Douglas production function with two inputs: K is
. .
capital, L is labor. The production function is given as: = .
What happens to the real rental price of capital if?
A. Immigration raises the labor force by 10 percent.
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B. A gift of capital/Machines from abroad raises the capital stock by 10 percent. (Use
graph)
C. Technological advancement raises the value of the parameter by percent.
6. Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia experienced a large increase in population owing to
high birth rate and rural-urban migration in recent times. Use the Neoclassical model of
residential investment to predict the impact of this event on housing prices and residential
investment?
7. Our theories of investment suggest that investment depends on national income. That is,
higher income might induce firms to invest more. Explain why investment might depend
on national income?
8. Suppose that the firm faces a Cobb–Douglas production function with two inputs: K is
capital (the number of machines = ), L is labor (the number of workers = ). The
. .
production function is = . Suppose further the cost of capital to a Machine-
rental company. The company buys Machines for $ , each and rents them out to other
businesses, and the economy’s price level, $ . The company faces a real interest rate
of 10 percent per year and the machines depreciate at 20 percent per year.
A. Compute the marginal product of machines and the real cost of machines, and
interpret the result (should the rental firm add to its capital stock -invest in new
machines)?
B. What happen to the firms’ decision if the relative price of machines increases by 10%
and 15% in order?
C. What happen to the real rental price of capital/Machine if:
i. Immigration raises the labor force by 10 percent.
ii. An earthquake reduces the capital stock by 10 percent. (Support your explanation
using graph).
iii. Technological improvement raises the value of the parameter by 10 percent.
9. If a firm invests out of retained profits rather than borrowed funds, will its investment
decision still be affected by the changes in the real interest rate? Explain.
10. The theories of investment suggest that investment is related to the business cycle.
Explain why investment rises during expansion and falls during recessions by referring
to the theories?
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