Decision Theory
Decision Theory
1 1
u (c1 , c2 ) = − − .
c1 c2
a) x >> y =⇒ x ≻ y
b) x >> y =⇒ x ≿ y
u(c) = − c11 − 1
c2
and u(c’) = − c1′ − 1
c′2
1
u(c) - u(c’) = 1
c′1
− 1
c1
+ 1
c′2
− 1
c2
Since both [ c1′ − c11 ] and [ c1′ − c12 ] are ¿ 0. u(c) - u(c’) ¿ 0 which implies u(c) ¿ u(c’) which
1 2
implies c ¿ c’.
u(c) - u(c’) = 1
c′1
− 1
c1
+ 1
c′2
− 1
c2
=⇒ c ≿ c′ By the same argument since two components
are ≥ 0, u(c) - u(c’) ≥ 0 which implies u(c) ≥ u(c’) which implies c ≥ 0 c’.
Naming the budget set p1 c1 + p2 c2 = w1 , we derive the demand functions for the two
goods.
√
For d1 : We have c2 = , substituting this into the budget set we get c1 (p1 + p1 p2 ,
q
p1
p2
therefore:
d1 (p, w) = w
√
p1 + p1 p2
Similarly, for d1 : We have c1 = , substituting this into the budget set we get c2 (p2 +
q
p2
p1
√
p1 p2 , therefore:
d2 (p, w) = w
√
p2 + p1 p2
To check if they are normal or inferior goods we can check the derivative of the demand
function in regards to the wealth.
∂d1
∂w
= 1
√
p1 + p1 p2
> 0 (because we assumed p1 , p2 > 0)
∂d2
∂w
= 1
√
p2 + p1 p2
> 0 (because we assumed p1 , p2 > 0)
Since both the derivatives are positive, both goods are normal.
The demand functions can be plugged into u(c) to get the indirect utility function, defined
as: v(p, w) = max u(c)
1 1
v(p, w) = u(d1 (p, w), d2 (p, w) = − w
w − w
w
√ √
p1 + p1 p2 p2 + p1 p2
√ √ √
−p1 − p2 − 2 p1 p2 ( p1 + p2 ) 2
= =−
w w
(d) Are two goods substitutes, complements or independent?
Since all quantities are non-negative. Hence, by definition, the two goods are substitutes.
2. Consider a consumer whose preference is represented by the Leontieff utility function u : Rn++ →
R defined by
c1 cn
u (c1 , ..., cn ) = min , ...,
a1 an
where ai > 0 for every i = 1, ..., n.
(a) Calculate the demand functions and the indirect utility function.
Define k1 = c1
a1
, . . . , kn = cn
an
. Then the Leontieff consumer problem becomes
A solution k̂ must be symmetric, i.e. k̂1 , . . . , k̂n , because, if there was an asymmetric
bundle k, we would gain the same utility without spending more money at the symmetric
bundle (min(k1 , . . . , kn ), . . . , min(k1 , . . . , kn )). Thus:
c1 p1 + · · · + cn pn = w ⇒ a1 k1 p1 + · · · + an kn pn = w,
which implies
w
k̂1 = · · · = k̂n = ,
a1 p 1 + · · · + an p n
which, unzipping the notation for ki , becomes
w
ĉi = ai ∀i ∈ {1, . . . , n}.
a1 p 1 + · · · + an p n
Suppose the price of good 1 is 1 and the price of good 2 increases from 1 to 2. The
consumer’s wealth is 2. Calculate the wealth effect and the substitution effect (under
Slutsky) on the demand for good 2 and illustrate in a graph.
Consider a change in price from p = (p1 , p2 ) = (1, 1) to p′ = (p1 , p′2 ) = (1, 2), with
w = 2 initially.
If ĉ = (ĉ1 , ĉ2 ) is optimal under (p, w), by Walras we have that
ĉ is optimal, hence ĉ1 0ĉ2 , which implies that ĉ = (1, 1) by point (a).
If we get to price p′ , Ĉ is not affordable anymore, hence there will be a new optimal bundle
ĉ′ = (ĉ′1 , ĉ′2 ). In fact,
2 2
ĉ =
′
, .
3 3
Now, we introduce the Slutsky wealth adjustment to face the change in prices, so that
2 1
d2 (p′ , w) − d2 (p, w′ ) = ĉ′2 − ĉ′′2 = −1=− .
3 3
Indeed, ĉ′′2 = ĉ1 , ĉ2 − 1
3
.
And the substitution effect is
w
p2
w′
p′2
w ĉ ≡ ĉ′′
p′2
ĉ′
c1
w w′
p1 p1
3. In discussing Giffen goods, we considered the utility function
c1 − 1
u (c) =
(2 − c2 )2
defined over the convex domain (1, ∞) × [0, 2) of the plane. Check that the demand function is
1
d1 (p, w) = 2 − (w − 2p2 )
p1
2
d2 (p, w) = −2 + (w − p1 )
p2
!
p2 c2 p1 c2
p1 1+ 1− + c2 p 2 = w ⇔ p1 + p 2 − + c2 p 2 = w
p1 2 2
1
⇔ c2 p 2 = w · p 1 − p 2
2
Solving for c2 gives the demand function of good 2 :
2
d2 (p, w) = −2 + (w − p1 ) .
p2
⇔ p1 c1 = −w + 2p2 + 2p1
2p2 2w 1
⇒ d1 (p1 w) = 2 + − = 2 − (w − 2p2 )
p1 p1 p1
4. Consider the following two lotteries, l1 = {4, 0.75; 7, 0.25} and l2 = {3, 0.5; 6, 0.25; 7, 0.25}.
(a) Which one should a risk neutral decision maker choose?
Since risk-neutral DMs aim to maximize their expected monetary outcome and both lot-
teries have the same expected value, a risk neutral DM would be indifferent among the
two.
√
(b) Given two rational individuals, called A and B, with vN-M utility functions uA (c) = c,
for c ≥ 0, and uB (c) = c2 , for c ≥ 0, respectively, which lottery would each individual
choose? State whether the individuals are risk averse/ risk neutral/ risk loving.
For each individual, we analyze its utility function and then compute the expected utility
(which we’ll denote by e.u.) of the two lotteries.
√
Decision maker A: uA (c) = c, c ≥ 0.
• Since e.u.A (l1 ) > e.u.A (l2 ), individual A would choose lottery l1 .
• Since e.u.B (l1 ) < e.u.B (l2 ), individual A would choose lottery l2 .
(c) Calculate the certain equivalent and risk premium of each lottery for each individual.
Certain equivalent (c.e.) is the amount of certain wealth an individual would consider
equivalent to the uncertain prospect of a lottery. Risk premium (r.p.) is the amount an
individual is willing to pay to avoid uncertainty and receive the certain equivalent instead.
In general, we know that
r.p. = e.u. − c.e.,
In our case, again, we first consider individual A and then B, computing for both the risk
premium of each lottery.
Decision maker A.
• Lottery l1 :
• Lottery l2 :
Decision maker B.
• Lottery l1 :
• Lottery l2 :
5. Consider an individual with a strictly increasing and continuous vN-M utility function of money
u (·). For any fixed amount of money c and positive number k, define the probability premium
π (c, k, u) as the excess in winning probability over fair odds that makes the individual indif-
ferent between the certain outcome c and a gamble between the two outcomes c + k and c − k.
More precisely,
1 1
u (c) = + π (c, k, u) u (c + k) + − π (c, k, u) u (c − k) .
2 2
Show that if the individual is risk averse (i.e., u (·) is concave), then π (c, k, u) ≥ 0 for all c, k.
Assume the individual is risk averse, then the utility function u(·) is concave. Hence
1 1
u(c) = ( + π(c, k, u))u(c + k) + ( − π(c, k, u))u(c − k)
2 2
1 1
≤ u(( + π(c, k, u))(c + k) + ( − π(c, k, u))(c − k)) , by Jensen inequality.
2 2
1 1 1 1
c ≤ c + k + π(c, k, u)c + π(c, k, u)k + c − k − π(c, k, u)c + π(c, k, u)k = c + 2π(c, k, u)k (1)
2 2 2 2
Implication:
=⇒ 2π(c, k, u)k + c ≥ c (2)
Which means:
=⇒ π(c, k, u) ≥ 0 (3)