Ref23-Mars2020 Final EIS
Ref23-Mars2020 Final EIS
NASA will maintain a website that provides the public with the most up-to-date project information,
including electronic copies of the EIS, as they are made available. The website may be accessed at
http://www.nasa.gov/agency/nepa/mars2020eis
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
This Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) has been prepared by the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in accordance with the National
Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969, as amended, to assist in the decision-making
process for the proposed Mars 2020 mission. This Environmental Impact Statement
(EIS) is a tiered document (Tier 2 EIS) under NASA’s Programmatic EIS for the Mars
Exploration Program.
The Proposed Action addressed in this FEIS is to continue preparations for and
implementation of the Mars 2020 mission. The Mars 2020 spacecraft would be
launched on an expendable launch vehicle during a launch opportunity from July
through August 2020. The Mars 2020 spacecraft would deliver a large, mobile science
laboratory (rover) with advanced instrumentation to a scientifically interesting location
on the surface of Mars early in 2021. The design of the Mars 2020 spacecraft and rover
would be based upon and similar to that used in the 2011 Mars Science Laboratory
Mission, including the use of a Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator.
The purpose of the Mars 2020 mission would be to continue NASA’s in-depth
exploration of Mars. The mission described by the Mars 2020 Science Definition Team
Report provides a basis for the proposed Mars 2020 mission, recommending it consist
of a science-focused, highly mobile rover designed to explore and investigate in detail a
site on Mars that was likely once habitable. The mission concept includes new scientific
instrumentation designed to seek signs of past life in situ. This instrumentation would be
used to select a suite of samples that would be stored in a sealable cache that could be
returned to Earth by a future mission. The mission would also demonstrate new
technology for future exploration of Mars (both robotic and human missions).
This FEIS presents descriptions of the proposed Mars 2020 mission, spacecraft, and
candidate launch vehicles; an overview of the affected environment at and near the
launch site and globally; and the potential environmental consequences associated with
the Proposed Action and Alternatives, including the No Action Alternative.
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Executive Summary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) for the Mars 2020 mission has been
prepared in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, as
amended (NEPA), (42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.); Executive Order 12114, Environmental
Effects Abroad of Major Federal Actions; the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ)
regulations for Implementing the Procedural Provisions of NEPA (40 CFR parts 1500-
1508); and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) NEPA policy
and procedures (14 CFR subpart 1216.3).
This FEIS for the Mars 2020 mission is a tiered document (Tier 2 EIS) under the Mars
Exploration Program (MEP). The Mars 2020 FEIS focuses on reasonable alternatives to
implement the purpose and need of the Mars 2020 mission, and the potential
environmental impacts associated with each alternative.
The purpose of this FEIS is to assist in the decision-making process concerning the
Proposed Action and Alternatives, including the No Action Alternative, for the proposed
Mars 2020 mission planned for launch in 2020. This FEIS provides information
associated with potential environmental impacts of implementing a proposed Mars 2020
mission, which would employ new scientific instrumentation in order to seek signs of
past life in situ, select and store a suite of samples in a returnable cache, and
demonstrate technology for future robotic and human exploration of Mars. NASA’s
proposed Mars 2020 mission would use the proven design and technology developed
for the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover Curiosity that arrived on Mars in August
2012. Under the Proposed Action, the Mars 2020 rover would be powered by a Multi-
Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG). NASA would select a
scientifically important landing site based upon data from past and current missions.
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ALTERNATIVES EVALUATED
This FEIS for the Mars 2020 mission evaluates the following alternatives in sufficient
detail to make a meaningful comparison of technical feasibility and potential
environmental impacts.
Proposed Action (Alternative 1) [NASA’s Preferred Alternative] — NASA
proposes to continue preparations for and implement the Mars 2020 mission to
the surface of Mars. The proposed Mars 2020 spacecraft would be launched on
board an expendable launch vehicle from Kennedy Space Center (KSC) or Cape
Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), Brevard County, Florida, during a 20-day
launch opportunity that runs from July through August 2020, and would be
inserted into a trajectory toward Mars. Should the mission be delayed, the
proposed Mars 2020 mission would be launched during the next available launch
opportunity in August through September 2022. The rover proposed for the Mars
2020 mission would utilize a radioisotope power system to continually provide
heat and electrical power to the rover’s battery so that the rover could operate
and conduct science on the surface of Mars.
Alternative 2 — In this Alternative, NASA would discontinue preparations for the
Proposed Action (Alternative 1) and implement an alternative configuration for
the Mars 2020 mission to Mars. The Mars 2020 rover would utilize solar power
as its source of electrical power to operate and conduct science on the surface of
Mars. The alternative Mars 2020 spacecraft would still be launched on board an
expendable launch vehicle from KSC or CCAFS, Brevard County, Florida, during
a 20-day launch opportunity that runs from July through August 2020, and would
be inserted into a trajectory toward Mars. Like Alternative 1, should the mission
be delayed, the proposed Mars 2020 mission would be launched during the next
available launch opportunity in August through September 2022.
Alternative 3 — In this Alternative, NASA would discontinue preparations for the
Proposed Action (Alternative 1) and implement an alternative configuration for
the Mars 2020 mission to Mars. The Mars 2020 rover would utilize solar power
as its source of electrical power to operate and conduct science on the surface of
Mars. The rover thermal environment would be augmented by the thermal output
from Light-Weight Radioisotope Heater Units (LWRHUs) to help keep the rover’s
onboard systems at proper operating temperatures. The Mars 2020 spacecraft
would still be launched on board an expendable launch vehicle from KSC or
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Executive Summary
CCAFS, Brevard County, Florida, during a 20-day launch opportunity that runs
from July through August 2020, and would be inserted into a trajectory toward
Mars. Should the mission be delayed, the proposed Mars 2020 mission would be
launched during the next available launch opportunity in August through
September 2022.
No Action Alternative — Under this alternative, NASA would discontinue
preparations for the Mars 2020 mission and, in turn, the spacecraft would not be
launched.
A solar mission with solar arrays optimized for use on Mars, the same assumption that
the solar arrays remain 40 percent free of dust, and the addition of LWRHUs
(Alternative 3), allow for some half-Martian year missions in northern latitudes as well as
a full Martian year mission in a latitude band between 5-20o south latitude. The
drawback of the southern latitude missions is that periods of constrained science
operations and hibernation would be necessary. In hibernation, all science operations
would be halted and only activities needed for the rover to survive would be performed.
1
Note that of the solar-powered Mars Exploration Rovers (MERs), Opportunity has remained at least
40 percent dust free for the entire mission to date, while Spirit experienced high dust accumulation
following a global dust storm; and at one point in the mission had less than 25 percent dust-free solar
arrays.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
If one assumes that the solar arrays remain 70 percent free of dust, then a full Martian
year mission could be possible between 20o south and 15o north latitudes. Even with
this improved operating range, there would be periods of constrained science operation
and hibernation.
Any of the solar-powered mission architectures would be expected to increase the
technical risk and resulting cost of mission design and development. A number of
design changes (modifications from the Curiosity heritage design) would also be
necessary to modify the rover’s power control electronics. Small increases in rover
mass on the order of less than10 kilograms (22 pounds) may also be expected relative
to the baseline MMRTG powered rover, primarily in the area of the solar array support
structure. The rover’s thermal design would have to be amended as well, since survival
heating would be provided by electrical output as opposed to any use of the MMRTG
thermal energy. The changes required to accommodate solar power for the Mars 2020
rover could potentially impact the accommodation of science instruments for the
mission.
Should the mission be delayed, the proposed Mars 2020 mission would be launched
during the next available launch opportunity in August through September 2022. The
science potential associated with Alternatives 1, 2, and 3 with a 2022 launch would be
similar to those projected for each alternative with a 2020 launch. Under all
circumstances, an MMRTG-powered rover would provide more power and heat for
science activities.
No Action Alternative. Under the No Action Alternative, NASA would discontinue
preparations for the Mars 2020 mission and the spacecraft would not be launched.
Therefore, none of the recommended science objectives would be met.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
emissions over land areas (as reported in previous USAF environmental documentation
(NASA 2011)) indicates that the emissions would not reach levels threatening public
health.
No Action Alternative. Under the No Action Alternative, NASA would not complete
preparations for the Mars 2020 mission. The No Action Alternative would not involve
any of the environmental impacts associated with potential launch-related accidents.
Potential Radiological Environmental Impacts of Launch Accidents
A principal concern associated with the launch of the proposed Mars 2020 mission
involves potential launch vehicle (LV) accidents that could result in the release of some
of the radioactive material onboard the spacecraft. Under Alternative 1, the Mars 2020
rover electrical power would be supplied by one MMRTG, which would use the natural
decay of its radioisotope fuel to produce electricity. The MMRTG contains 4.8 kg
(10.6 lb), or approximately 60,000 curies, of plutonium dioxide (consisting primarily of
plutonium-238). Alternative 2 would not involve radioactive material. Alternative 3
complements the power from solar arrays with up to 71 LWRHUs, each containing a
pencil eraser-sized pellet of approximately 2.7 grams, (a total of 192 grams [0.42 lb]), 33
curies (a total of 2,300 curies), of plutonium dioxide (also primarily plutonium-238).
The DOE would provide the MMRTG/LWRHUs for the Mars 2020 mission and retain
title to the MMRTG/LWRHUs and plutonium during both the preparation and launch of
the mission and in the event of a launch accident. As a cooperating agency, DOE has
prepared the Nuclear Risk Assessment for the Mars 2020 Mission Environmental
Impact Statement (SNL 2014). The nuclear risk assessment for the Mars 2020 mission
considers: (1) potential accidents associated with the launch, their probabilities and
accident environments; (2) the response of the MMRTG, LWRHUs, and science
instrument sources2 to such accidents in terms of the release probabilities and
estimated amounts and form of radioactive material released; and (3) the radiological
consequences and risks associated with such releases.
Information on potential launch vehicle accident scenarios and related probabilities was
developed by NASA based on information provided by the potential launch service
providers and the spacecraft provider. DOE then assessed the response of the MMRTG
and LWRHUs to these accident environments, and estimated the amount of radioactive
material (plutonium dioxide) that could be released. Finally, DOE determined the
potential consequences of each release to the environment and to the potentially
exposed population. Accidents were assessed over all mission launch phases—from
pre-launch operations through escape from Earth orbit—and consequences were
2
The DOE performed the risk assessment prior to the selection of mission science instrumentation, and
the selection of instruments with small radioisotope sources was considered to be a possibility. The
instruments selected by NASA for the Mars 2020 mission do not contain any science instrument
radioisotope sources. However, radioisotopes may be used for calibration purposes. The very small
quantities of radioisotopes used for this purpose have been addressed in previous NASA environmental
documentation (NASA 2011) and found to have no significant impact.
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Executive Summary
assessed for both the regional population near the launch site and the global
population.
Results of the risk assessment for this FEIS show that the most likely outcome of
implementing the Proposed Action (Alternative 1) would be a successful launch with no
release of radioactive materials. However, the risk assessment did identify potential
launch accidents that, while not expected, could result in a release of radioactive
material in the launch area for accidents occurring early in the launch, in southern Africa
for events resulting in a suborbital reentry, and in other global locations following orbital
reentry. In each of these regions, the probability of an accident resulting in a release of
radioactive material would be, at worst, 1 in 3,800 for the MMRTG and 1 in 16,000 for
the LWRHUs.
The radiological impacts for each postulated accident were calculated in terms of
(1) impacts to individuals in terms of the maximum individual dose (the largest expected
dose that any person could receive for a particular accident); (2) impacts to the
population in terms of the potential for additional latent cancer fatalities due to a
radioactive release (i.e., cancer fatalities that are in excess of those latent cancer
fatalities that the general population would normally experience from all causes over a
long-term period following the release); and (3) impacts to the environment in terms of
land area contaminated at or above specified levels. The analysis conservatively
assumes no mitigation actions, such as sheltering and exclusion of people from
contaminated land areas. Prior to launch of the Mars 2020 mission, a comprehensive
set of plans would be developed by NASA to ensure that any launch accident could be
met with a well-developed and tested response. NASA's plans would be developed in
accordance with the National Response Framework (NRF) (DHS 2013) and the NRF
Nuclear/ Radiological Incident Annex (DHS 2008) in coordination with DOE and other
Federal agencies, the state of Florida, Brevard County, and local governmental
organizations.
Potential environmental contamination was evaluated in terms of areas exceeding
various specific screening levels and dose-rate-related criteria. For this FEIS, land
areas would be considered to be contaminated to the point of requiring detailed
characterization for potential cleanup actions when radiological deposition exceeds a
screening level of 0.2 microcuries per square meter (μCi/m2) (SNL 2014).
Should any active decontamination be required, the costs associated with these efforts
could vary widely depending upon the characteristics of the contaminated area and its
size. Previous estimates by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), adjusted for
inflation to 2014 dollars, for general land/water radiological cleanup, range from $110
million to $611 million per square kilometer (about $284 million to $1.58 billion per
square mile) (Chanin et al. 1996).
Should the mission be delayed, the proposed Mars 2020 mission would be launched
during the next available launch opportunity in August through September 2022. Since
this launch period is in a similar season as the 2020 launch period, the projected
radiological impacts would be similar, with only a small increase in population impacts
due to population growth. Thus, within the overall uncertainties, the radiological impacts
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
associated with a 2022 launch would be the same as those for the proposed 2020
launch.
Alternative 1: As shown in Figure ES-1, the most probable outcome is a successful
launch. In the event of a launch accident, most accidents do not result in the release of
plutonium dioxide. Between one and two percent of the launch accidents do however
result in a release. These accidents may occur near the launch area, resulting in a
release within the launch area; or they may occur later in the launch and result in a
release beyond the launch area. The risk assessment shows that for the Mars 2020
mission using an MMRTG:
There is a 97.5% chance of a successful launch.
There is a 2.5% chance of a launch accident.
There is a 1 in 2,600 chance of a launch accident that would release plutonium
dioxide.
o There is a 1 in 11,000 chance of a launch accident that would result in a
release of plutonium dioxide in the launch area.
o There is a 1 in 3,500 chance of a launch accident that would result in a
release of plutonium dioxide outside the launch area.
No radiological fatalities would be expected to occur as a result of any accident.
The average maximum dose to any member of the public from an accident with a
release in the launch area would be equal to about 3 months of exposure to
natural background radiation for a person living in the United States.
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Executive Summary
The accident probabilities and mean consequences are the result of the summation of
individual accidents that have a wide range of consequences and probabilities. For
launch-related issues that could occur prior to launch, the most likely result would be a
safe hold or termination of the launch countdown with no radiological consequences.
After lift-off, most accidents would lead to activation of safety systems that would result
in automatic or commanded destruction of the launch vehicle.
For post-launch accidents near the launch area that result in a radiological release, the
predicted mean radiological dose to the maximally exposed individual would be about
0.06 rem. The probability for such an accident is about 1 in 11,000. No near-term
radiological health effects would be expected from such an exposure. Each exposure
would, however, yield an increase in the statistical likelihood of a latent cancer fatality
over the long term. For a launch area accident resulting in a release, a mean of 0.29
additional latent cancer fatalities could occur among the potentially exposed members
of the local and global populations.
The risk assessment concludes that the average land contamination above 0.2 Ci/m2
for all launch area accidents that result in a release is 7.4 km2 (2.9 square miles).
For accidents that occur prior to or shortly after the spacecraft reaches Earth orbit for
which debris could impact land, the total probability of an accident resulting in a release
during this phase is about 1 in 68,000. The maximum (mean value) dose received by an
individual close to the impact site would be about 0.043 rem. The collective dose
received by all individuals within the potentially exposed global population would result
in about 0.20 mean additional latent cancer fatalities within the exposed population.
For accidents after the spacecraft reaches Earth orbit during which debris could impact
land, the total probability of an accident resulting in a release is about 1 in 3,800. The
maximum (mean value) dose received by an individual close to the impact site would be
about 0.0005 rem. The collective dose received by all individuals within the potentially
exposed global population would result in about 0.0026 mean additional latent cancer
fatalities within the exposed population.
Considering all launch accidents assessed in this FEIS, the maximally exposed member
of the exposed population faces a much less than 1 in a million chance of incurring a
latent cancer due to a launch failure of the Mars 2020 mission.
Alternative 2: Under Alternative 2, the Mars 2020 rover would utilize solar energy as
its sole source of electrical power. Implementation of Alternative 2 would not involve
potential radiological environmental impacts.
Alternative 3: Under Alternative 3, the Mars 2020 rover would utilize solar energy as
its primary source of electrical power. Alternative 3 would not involve any MMRTG-
associated radiological risks. However, NASA may consider the use of up to 71
LWRHUs to provide additional heat to help maintain the solar-powered rover’s
functionality during extreme cold temperature conditions. The use of LWRHUs for this
alternative could also result in mission risks and related radiological consequences.
As shown in Figure ES-2, the most probable outcome is a successful launch. In the
event of a launch accident, most accidents do not result in the release of plutonium
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
dioxide. Less than one percent of the launch accidents do however result in a release.
These accidents may occur near the launch area, resulting in a release within the
launch area; or they may occur later in the launch and result in a release beyond the
launch area. The risk assessment shows that for the Mars 2020 mission using
LWRHUs:
There is a 97.5 percent chance of a successful launch.
There is a 2.5 percent chance of a launch accident.
There is a 1 in 15,000 chance of a launch accident that would release plutonium
dioxide.
o There is a 1 in 16,000 chance of a launch accident that would result in a
release of plutonium dioxide in the launch area.
o There is a 1 in 420,000 chance of a launch accident that would result in a
release of plutonium dioxide outside the launch area.
No radiological fatalities would be expected to occur as a result of any accident.
The average maximum dose to any member of the public from an accident with a
release in the launch area would be equal to about 5 days of exposure to natural
background radiation for a person living in the United States.
Most of the radiological accident impacts for Alternative 3 would be associated with
accidents that occur on or near the launch area. The LWRHUs would be expected to
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survive most launch accidents beyond the immediate launch area without releasing any
plutonium dioxide. For accidents near the launch area that result in a radiological
release, the predicted mean radiological dose to the maximally exposed individual
would be about 0.004 rem. The probability for such an accident is about 1 in 16,000. No
near-term radiological health effects would be expected from such an exposure. Each
exposure would, however, yield a small increase in the statistical likelihood of a latent
cancer fatality over the long term. For a launch-area accident with a release, a mean of
0.020 additional latent cancer fatalities could occur among the potentially exposed
members of the local and global populations.
The risk assessment concludes that the average land contamination above 0.2 Ci/m2
for all launch area accidents that result in a release is 0.51 km2 (0.20 square mile).
Considering all of the launch accidents assessed in this FEIS, the maximally exposed
member of the exposed population faces a much less than 1 in a million chance of
incurring a latent cancer due to a failure of the Mars 2020 mission.
No Action Alternative. Under the No Action Alternative, NASA would not complete
preparations for and implement the Mars 2020 mission. The No Action Alternative would
not involve any of the radiological risks associated with potential launch accidents.
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Table of Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS
VOLUME 1
Section Page
ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................... i
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................... iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS VOLUME 1 ......................................................................... xvii
LIST OF FIGURES...................................................................................................... xxv
LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................... xxvi
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ....................................................................... xxix
COMMON METRIC/BRITISH SYSTEM EQUIVALENTS ......................................... xxxv
1. PURPOSE AND NEED FOR THE ACTION .......................................................... 1-1
1.1 Background .................................................................................................. 1-1
1.2 Purpose of the Action ................................................................................... 1-4
1.3 Need for the Action ...................................................................................... 1-5
1.4 NEPA Planning and Scoping Activities ........................................................ 1-7
1.5 Results of Public Review of the Draft EIS .................................................... 1-9
1.6 Changes to the Draft EIS ........................................................................... 1-10
2. DESCRIPTION AND COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVES ................................. 2-1
2.1 Description of the Proposed Action (Alternative 1) ....................................... 2-3
2.1.1 ......Mission Description ............................................................................. 2-3
2.1.2 ......Spacecraft Description ...................................................................... 2-10
2.1.3 ......Rover Electrical Power ..................................................................... 2-16
2.1.4 ......Operational Considerations .............................................................. 2-23
2.1.5 ......Spacecraft Processing ...................................................................... 2-24
2.1.6 ......Representative Launch Vehicle Configurations for the Mars 2020
Mission ............................................................................................. 2-24
2.1.6.1. Description of the Atlas V Launch Vehicle ............................. 2-25
2.1.6.1.1. First Stage .................................................................... 2-26
2.1.6.1.2. Centaur Second Stage ................................................. 2-26
2.1.6.1.3. Payload Fairing ............................................................. 2-26
2.1.6.1.4. Atlas V Space Launch Complex-41 .............................. 2-27
2.1.6.1.5. Launch Vehicle Processing .......................................... 2-27
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List of Figures
Figure Page
Figure ES-1. Alternative 1 - MMRTG Accident Probabilities .......................................... x
Figure ES-2. Alternative 3 - LWRHU Accident Probabilities .......................................... xii
Figure 1-1. Mars Exploration Program and Cooperative Missions 1997 - 2020 .......... 1-3
Figure 2-1. Baseline Science and Technology Capabilities for Mars 2020 Mission .... 2-2
Figure 2-2. Arrival Dates for the Proposed Mars 2020 Mission ................................... 2-5
Figure 2-3. Entry, Descent, and Landing Phase .......................................................... 2-7
Figure 2-4. Illustration of the Proposed Mars 2020 Flight System ............................. 2-10
Figure 2-5. The Mars 2020 Descent Stage and Proposed Mars 2020 Rover ............ 2-11
Figure 2-6. The Proposed Mars 2020 Rover ............................................................. 2-12
Figure 2-7. The Science Instrumentation for the Proposed Mars 2020 Rover ........... 2-13
Figure 2-8. Components of a Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator 2-17
Figure 2-9. A General Purpose Heat Source Module ................................................ 2-21
Figure 2-10. An Atlas V Launch Vehicle with Solid Rocket Boosters ........................ 2-25
Figure 2-11. The Spacecraft Within the Payload Fairing Envelope ........................... 2-26
Figure 2-12. Typical Atlas V Ascent Profile ............................................................... 2-28
Figure 2-13. A Delta IV Heavy Launch Vehicle ......................................................... 2-29
Figure 2-14. Typical Delta IV Heavy Ascent Profile ................................................... 2-31
Figure 2-15. A Falcon Heavy Launch Vehicle ........................................................... 2-32
Figure 2-16. Falcon Heavy Ascent Profile ................................................................. 2-35
Figure 2-17. A Representative Solar-Powered Alternative 2 Mars 2020 Rover ......... 2-39
Figure 2-18. Mars 2020 Solar-Powered Rover Operability (40% Dust Factor) .......... 2-40
Figure 2-19. Principal Features of a Light-Weight Radioisotope Heater Unit
(LWRHU) .............................................................................................. 2-44
Figure 2-20. Mars 2020 Solar-Powered (with LWRHUS) Rover Operability with 40%
Dust Factor ........................................................................................... 2-46
Figure 2-21. Alternative 1 - MMRTG Accident Probabilities ...................................... 2-56
Figure 2-22. Alternative 3 - LWRHU Accident Probabilities....................................... 2-57
Figure 3-1. CCAFS and NASA/KSC Locations ........................................................... 3-2
Figure 4-1. The Radiological Risk Assessment Methodology ................................... 4-25
Figure C-1. The Area within 100 km (62 mi) of SLC-41, LC-39A and SLC-37 ........... C-2
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List of Tables
Table Page
Table ES-1. Summary Comparison of the Mars 2020 Mission Alternatives ..................xv
Table 2-1. Baseline Operational Capabilities for the Mars 2020 Mission .................... 2-3
Table 2-2. Mars 2020 Science Measurements and Technology Capabilities ............ 2-13
Table 2-3. U.S. Space Missions Using Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) .......... 2-19
Table 2-4. Typical Isotopic Composition of an MMRTG ............................................ 2-22
Table 2-5. Operational Lifetime for a Solar-Powered Rover ...................................... 2-42
Table 2-6. Science Capability .................................................................................... 2-42
Table 2-7. Typical Radionuclide Composition of a LWRHU Fuel Pellet .................... 2-45
Table 2-8. Operational Lifetime for a Solar-Powered Rover with LWRHUs............... 2-47
Table 2-9. Estimated Science Capability Comparison of the Mars 2020 Mission
Alternatives ........................................................................................... 2-49
Table 2-10. Summary of Anticipated Environmental Impacts of the Mars 2020 Mission
Alternatives ........................................................................................... 2-51
Table 2-11. Summary of Estimated Mean Radiological Health Consequences ........ 2-61
Table 2-12. Mars 2020 Mission Alternatives: Land Contamination ........................... 2-63
Table 2-13. Summary Comparison of the Mars 2020 Mission Alternatives ............... 2-67
Table 3-1. State and Federal Ambient Air Quality Standards ...................................... 3-5
Table 3-2. Threatened, Endangered, and Candidate Species Occurring or Potentially
Occurring on or Around CCAFS and KSC, Florida ............................... 3-11
Table 3-3. Population of the Nine-County Region ..................................................... 3-14
Table 3-4. Minority Population of the Nine-County Region........................................ 3-14
Table 3-5. Global Population and Surface Characteristics by Latitude Band ............ 3-24
Table 3-6. Average Annual Effective Dose Equivalent of Ionizing Radiation to a
Member of the U.S. Population ............................................................. 3-26
Table 4-1. Launch Vehicle Emissions ....................................................................... 4-14
Table 4-2. Alternative 1 Accident End State Probabilities ......................................... 4-29
Table 4-3. Summary of Accident Probabilities and MMRTG Source Terms .............. 4-35
Table 4-4. Summary of Estimated MMRTG Accident Radiological Consequences .. 4-41
Table 4-5. Potential Land Decontamination Cost Factors ......................................... 4-47
Table 4-6. Summary of MMRTG Health Effect Mission Risks ................................... 4-49
Table 4-7. MMRTG Health Effect Mission Risk Contributions by Affected Region .... 4-50
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Abbreviations and Acronyms
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xxx
Abbreviations and Acronyms
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N O
N2 nitrogen ODS ozone depleting substance
NAAQS National Ambient Air ODY Mars Odyssey
Quality Standards OFW Outstanding Florida
NASA National Aeronautics and Waters
Space Administration OPlan Operation Plan
NCRP National Council on OSHA Occupational Safety &
Radiation Protection and Health Administration
Measurements oz ounce
NEPA National Environmental
Policy Act P
NHL National Historic
Landmark PAFB Patrick Air Force Base
NLS NASA Launch Service PAH polychlorinated aromatic
NMFS National Marine Fisheries hydrocarbon
Service PCB polychlorinated biphenol
nmi nautical mile PEIS Programmatic
NOA Notice of Availability Environmental Impact
NOAA National Oceanic and Statement
Atmospheric PHSF Payload Hazardous
Administration Servicing Facility
NOI Notice of Intent PHX Phoenix
NOx nitrogen oxides PIXL Planetary Instrument for X-
NPD NASA Policy Directive ray Lithochemistry
NPDES National Pollutant PLF payload fairing
Discharge Elimination PM2.5 particulate matter less
System than 2.5 micrometers in
NPR NASA Procedural diameter
Requirement PM10 particulate matter less
NPS National Park Service than 10 micrometers in
diameter
NRC National Research Council
ppm parts per million
NRC Nuclear Regulatory
Commission PPPG Pollution Prevention
Program Guide
NRF National Response
Framework psf pound/square foot
NRHP National Register of Pt-30Rh platinum-30 rhodium
Historic Places Pu plutonium
NSF National Science Pu-236 Plutonium-236
Foundation Pu-238 Plutonium-238
NTO nitrogen tetroxide Pu-239 Plutonium-239
Pu-240 Plutonium-240
Pu-241 Plutonium-241
xxxii
Abbreviations and Acronyms
U
UCMR Unregulated Contaminant
Monitoring Rule
UNSCEAR United Nations Scientific
Committee on the Effects
of Atomic Radiation
USAF U.S. Air Force
USBC U.S. Bureau of the Census
xxxiii
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
V
VIF Vertical Integration Facility
VOC volatile organic compound
Y
yd yard
yr year
xxxiv
Common Metric/British System Equivalents
xxxv
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
xxxvi
1. Purpose and Need for the Action
1-1
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
The scientific objectives established by the program to address the goal of answering
the question “Did life ever exist on Mars?” are to search for evidence of past or present
life, characterize the climate and volatile history of Mars, understand the surface and
subsurface geology (including the nature of the interior), and characterize the Martian
environment quantitatively in preparation for human exploration. One common thread
that links these objectives is to explore the role of water in all of its states within the
“Mars system,” from the top of the atmosphere to the interior.
The MEP is fundamentally a science-driven program focused on understanding and
characterizing Mars as a dynamic system and ultimately addressing whether life is or
was ever a part of that system. The MEP further embraces the challenges associated
with the development of a predictive capability for Martian climate and how the role of
water and other factors, such as variations in the tilt of the planet’s polar axis, may have
influenced the environmental history of Mars.
The MEP addresses the highest priority scientific investigations directly related to the
Program’s goals and objectives. These planned investigations were derived by means
of a highly inclusive process involving a large segment of the broad planetary
exploration science community. The MEP is currently implemented as a sustained
series of flight missions to Mars, each of which will provide important, focused scientific
return. NASA is taking advantage of launch opportunities available approximately every
26 months, to evolve a scientifically integrated architecture of orbiters, landers, and
rovers. Figure 1-1 provides a timeline of the MEP missions since 1997, including
proposed missions through 2020, as well as cooperative missions with the European
Space Agency. The Mars Atmospheric and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission has
launched and entered Mars orbit in September 2014. The MEP has launched both
orbiting and surface-focused missions with the orbiters providing both investigative and
communication capabilities.
The goals of the MEP are outlined below (NASA 2014b). The science goals described
in Section 1.2 for the proposed Mars 2020 mission support these MEP goals.
Determine if life exists or has ever existed on Mars
Search for life where liquid water was once stable
Look for energy sources (other than sunlight) necessary to support life
Look for signs of life on Mars, telltale markers of current and past life
o Mineralogical clues indicating the sustained presence of water at one time
o Environments amenable (similar to sedimentary soils on Earth) to preserving
signs of life
Characterize the climate of Mars
Characterize the current climate and climate processes of Mars
Characterize the ancient climate of Mars
1-2
1. Purpose and Need for the Action
Figure 1-1. Mars Exploration Program and Cooperative Missions 1997 - 2020
Characterize the geology of Mars
Determine the geological processes (wind, water, volcanism, tectonics, cratering,
etc.) that have resulted in formation of the Martian crust and surface.
o Identify the composition of surface materials, particularly those that may
indicate the presence of water.
Characterize the structure, dynamics, and history of the planet’s interior.
o Determine the impact of the magnetic field Mars once had, but no longer has.
Develop an understanding of Mars in support of possible future human
exploration
Acquire appropriate Martian environmental data such as those required to
o Characterize the radiation environment.
o Conduct in situ engineering and science demonstrations.
Advance spacecraft technology (e.g., entry, descent, and landing technology) for
astronaut safety.
The MEP also ensures the development and demonstration of technologies required to
enable attainment of these goals. Specifically, the program enables new classes of
Mars science investigations, including remote astrobiology and new techniques for
in situ life detection. Technology developments and improvements over the course of
the program enable a progressive increase in the payload mass delivered to Mars orbit
and to the surface by program spacecraft, enhance the capability to safely and precisely
place payloads at any desired location on the surface, and enable full access to the
subsurface, surface, and atmospheric regions.
1-3
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
3
Gaps in knowledge or information required to reduce risk, increase effectiveness, and improve the
design of robotic and human space exploration missions.
1-4
1. Purpose and Need for the Action
highest priority measurements that are synergistic with Mars 2020 science
objectives and compatible with the mission concept are (in priority order):
1. Demonstration of In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) technologies to enable
propellant and consumable oxygen production from the Martian atmosphere for
future exploration missions.
2. Characterization of atmospheric dust size and morphology to understand its
effects on the operation of surface systems and human health.
3. Collection of surface weather measurements to validate global atmospheric
models.
The SDT also identified important opportunities to demonstrate improved technical
capabilities for landing and operating on the surface of Mars to benefit future Mars
missions.
The proposed Mars 2020 mission objectives align with the priorities of the Decadal
Survey (the Space Studies Board’s (SSB’s) Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science
in the Decade 2013-2022) (NAP 2011) for solar system exploration and investigations. It
would address several of the high-priority scientific investigations recommended to
NASA by the science community. In order to fulfill these comprehensive science
objectives and maximize the potential for the mission to be most responsive to
discoveries, NASA developed capability requirements for the proposed Mars 2020
mission (these are described in Figure 2-1 and Table 2-1).
1.3 NEED FOR THE ACTION
The proposed Mars 2020 mission objectives align with the priorities of the National
Research Council’s (NRC’s) 2013 Planetary Science Decadal Survey for solar system
exploration and investigations, Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade
2013-2022 (NAP 2011). This report was requested by NASA and the National Science
Foundation (NSF) to review and assess the status of planetary science and to develop
a comprehensive science and mission strategy that updates and extends the NRC’s
2003 planetary decadal survey, New Frontiers in the Solar System: An Integrated
Exploration Strategy. Drawing on extensive interactions with the broad planetary
science community, the report presents a decadal program of science and exploration
with the potential to yield revolutionary new discoveries. This report identifies
fundamental questions that a planetary exploration program should address, including
questions about past or present life in the solar system and how they relate to a NASA’s
human exploration program. The Mars 2020 mission would address several of the high-
priority scientific investigations recommended to NASA by the science community
through the decadal survey.
The MEP forms a vital part of NASA’s planetary exploration program. As stated in the
NRC document, “Mars presents an excellent opportunity to investigate the major
question of habitability and life in the solar system.” Not only can we get to and explore
Mars (as demonstrated by the success of a series of progressively larger, more
complex, and scientifically rewarding missions), Mars holds the promise of providing
answers to the questions identified for a planetary exploration program.
1-5
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
The past and current environments on Mars have resulted in conditions that are unique
in the solar system (NAP 2011).
Mars, early in its history, is thought to have had an environment in which
prebiotic compounds may have formed and that its environment may have been
conducive to the origin and continued evolution of life.
Mars has also experienced major changes in surface conditions that have
produced a wide range of environments.
Mars has not been subjected to significant atmospheric and geological
degradation resulting in the possibility that the early geologic record of Mars has
been preserved. This means that there is potential evidence of prebiotic and
biotic processes and how they relate to the evolution of the planet as a system.
Because of these conditions, the signs of past life on Mars may have been preserved in
such a manner that we can find them. Mars, therefore, provides the opportunity to
address questions about past and present life in the solar system such as: “Did life arise
elsewhere in the solar system, and if so, how?” “How did Mars evolve into the planet it
is today and what can be learned about Earth’s evolution?” and “How are the biological
and geological history of a planet related?” Progress on these important questions can
be made more readily at Mars than anywhere else in the solar system (NAP 2011).
The form of the proposed Mars 2020 mission—a landed rover carrying a suite of
scientific instruments—is the result of a desire to maximize the potential science return
from the mission. The rover’s mobility provides access to a significantly larger area than
possible with a landed, stationary mission. As expressed by the Space Studies Board’s
Committee on Planetary and Lunar Exploration (COMPLEX) (NAP 1999), mobility is
essential because evidence for past or present life on Mars will very likely not be so
abundant or widespread that it will be available in the immediate vicinity of the selected
landing site. Without the mobility necessary to conduct in situ exploration, it may not be
possible to uniquely characterize a target location. COMPLEX further emphasized the
need for very capable mobile science platforms that could carry a suite of mutually
complementary instruments, have an extensive range and long lifetime, and have one
or more manipulative devices for acquiring and caching samples. Lessons from MER
and MSL have demonstrated the advantages of mobility for conducting scientific
investigations.
The scientific instrumentation to be carried aboard the rover was selected to build upon
the results of previous missions. Discoveries from earlier missions of the MEP, including
NASA’s Spirit and Opportunity rovers, Mars Science Laboratory rover Curiosity, the
Phoenix lander, Mars Odyssey, Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), and the
European Space Agency’s Mars Express orbiter, point definitively to evidence of a past
presence of water on Mars and the presence today of subsurface water ice. Data
returned and analyzed from these ongoing missions continue to demonstrate a need for
global exploration of the planet. Future exploration efforts could use that information as
a basis for investigations intended to take the next step and “Seek Signs of Life.”
In 2002, Mars Odyssey found evidence of large amounts of subsurface water ice in the
northern arctic plains. NASA’s Phoenix Lander mission, first in the series of Mars Scout
1-6
1. Purpose and Need for the Action
missions within the MEP, was selected to examine this region in detail. Phoenix arrived
at Mars in May 2008 in the beginning of Northern Summer on Mars. Phoenix confirmed
deposits of underground water ice. It also found calcium carbonate, which is indicative
of the presence of liquid water at one time; and perchlorates, which some Earth
microbes can use as food, in the ice-rich soil of the Martian arctic (NASA 2010a).
NASA’s MRO mission entered orbit around Mars in March 2006 and, after a period of
adjustments to its orbit, began its primary science mission in November 2006. In
achieving its scientific objectives, MRO has searched for subsurface water and found
safe and scientifically worthy landing sites for the MSL mission and continues to be
used for reconnaissance of potential Mars 2020 landing sites.
The Mars Exploration Rovers found signs of the past presence of surface water:
minerals that on Earth are formed in the presence of water and overlapping rock layers.
The overlapping rock layers, formed as water evaporated, provide evidence that water
may have been found on the surface of Mars over long time periods. Besides finding
evidence of past surface water, the rovers identified additional chemical elements in the
Martian soil that, although not definitive proof of past life, are needed for life (NASA
2013a).
The MSL began to provide new information even before arriving at Mars. During its
journey to Mars, Curiosity instrumentation measured cosmic and solar radiation levels—
measurements that will help NASA plan and design any future manned expedition to
Mars. During the first year of its two Earth year mission, Curiosity found evidence that at
one time Mars had an environment that could support microbial life and evidence of an
ancient streambed has been found by the rover (NASA 2013b). In addition to landing in
a place with past evidence of water, Curiosity is continuing to seek evidence of
organics, the chemical building blocks of life. Places with water and the chemistry
needed for life potentially provide habitable conditions.
These previous missions have yielded new information on ancient and recent
habitability on Mars both globally and locally. To further increase our knowledge of the
solar system and of life’s evolution here on Earth, future Mars missions would be
designed to build upon the findings from these missions to search for life itself in places
identified as potential past or present habitats. Like previous MEP missions, this mission
would be driven by scientific questions that evolve from discoveries by prior missions.
The goals proposed for the Mars 2020 mission, with its overarching theme to “Seek
Signs of Life,” build upon this heritage and would improve knowledge of the habitability
of Mars from a scientifically promising location. The proposed Mars 2020 mission
objectives would also address NASA’s strategic goals of continuing to pave the way for
future human exploration.
1.4 NEPA PLANNING AND SCOPING ACTIVITIES
On April 12, 2005, NASA published a Notice of Availability of the Final Programmatic
Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars Exploration Program (PEIS MEP) (NASA
2005a, 70 FR 19102). The Record of Decision for the PEIS MEP was signed on June
22, 2005, enabling continued planning for the MEP, which represents NASA’s overall
1-7
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
plans for the robotic exploration of Mars through 2020. The PEIS MEP encompasses
the launch of at least one spacecraft to Mars during each favorable launch opportunity,
which occurs approximately every 26 months. Overall environmental compliance in
support of the MEP is addressed in the PEIS MEP, and allows planning to continue for
the Mars 2020 mission.
On September 11, 2013, NASA published in the Federal Register (78 FR 55762) a
Notice of Intent (NOI) to prepare an Environmental Impact Statement and conduct
scoping for the Mars 2020 mission. Public input and comments on alternatives, potential
environmental impacts, and concerns associated with the proposed Mars 2020 mission
were requested. The scoping period ended on October 30, 2013.
NASA held scoping meetings to solicit written and oral comments on the scope of the
Mars 2020 Mission EIS. Two scoping meetings were held in the vicinity of KSC. An
open house, town hall meeting format was used for the scoping meetings. This format
provided meeting participants the opportunity to familiarize themselves with the
proposed Mars 2020 mission and EIS, as well as the NEPA process during the open
house, followed by an opportunity to provide formal comments on the scope of the Mars
2020 Mission EIS.
The open house portion of the scoping meetings included displays of a variety of
posters and printed material that supported the EIS and NEPA process. Technical
experts were available to interact with the public at the various displays. In addition,
there were several “floater” experts who provided additional technical expertise where
needed. Each display was augmented with supporting written materials such as a fact
sheet.
The town hall session followed the open house portion of the scoping meeting. After
introductory remarks, presentations were made starting with videotapes by the NASA
HQ Mars 2020 Program Executive and the NASA HQ NEPA Manager; and then
followed by presentations by team members that were in attendance. In anticipation of
the government shutdown, the NASA HQ Mars 2020 Program Executive and the NASA
HQ NEPA Manager recorded their presentations at NASA TV in Washington, DC for
use during the town hall sessions. At the conclusion of the presentations, the facilitator
took leadership of the meeting, guiding individuals through the comment process.
Written comments were also received in response to the NOI. A summary of the
comments on the suggested scope of the EIS included:
Comment: The EIS should discuss the impacts on local flora and fauna,
including Mosquito Lagoon (where [in] winter bottlenose dolphin were
found) and Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge.
Response: Chapter 4 of this EIS discusses the impacts on local flora and fauna.
The impacts of normal launches and the non-radiological impacts of launch
accidents on local flora and fauna are addressed in Sections 4.1.2.7 and
4.1.3.2, respectively. The impacts on local flora and fauna associated with
launch accidents that release radioactive material were addressed in the
DOE Nuclear Risk Assessment through land contamination and are
discussed in Sections 4.1.4 and 4.3.4.
1-8
1. Purpose and Need for the Action
Comment: The EIS should discuss how the mission plans to limit the spread of
radiological and non-radiological materials to the environment in a launch
accident.
Response: As discussed in Sections 2.1.3 and 4.1.4.3 (addressing the MMRTG)
and 2.3.1.2 and 4.3.4.3 (addressing the LWRHUs), the MMRTG and
LWRHUs are designed to contain the radioactive material during normal
operations and under a wide range of launch accident conditions. In
addition, NASA and the USAF have established a range safety program
intended to limit the potential impacts associated with launch accidents
(Section 2.1.6.5). For a launch involving radioactive material, NASA would
also develop a radiological contingency plan, discussed in Sections 4.1.5
and 4.3.5, to minimize the impacts to the public and the environment
should an accident occur.
Comment: The EIS should discuss the risk assessment and results and impacts
“to Earth’s organisms (humans, flora and fauna, natural resources).” “The
potentiality of such a scenario should be analyzed and a quantifiable
system should be created in order to ensure that the benefits outweigh the
costs of the mission, even if failed.”
Response: The impacts of launch accidents on local flora and fauna are
addressed in Section 4.1.3.2. The DOE prepared a Nuclear Risk
Assessment for the Mars 2020 mission and the results are incorporated in
this EIS. Sections 4.1.4 and 4.3.4 provide detailed assessments of the risks
and a summary is presented in Section 2.6.2. The risk assessment
discusses the probabilities of accidents, their potential impacts on humans
and flora and fauna due to land contamination, and the potential costs
associated with land cleanup. These impacts are discussed in Section
4.1.4.6. The tradeoff between the costs of the mission, accident risks, and
benefits of the mission will be made by NASA and published in the Record
of Decision.
Comment: The EIS should discuss the nuclear wastes associated with using
radioactive power sources.
Response: Hazardous waste generation associated with this mission is
discussed in Section 3.1.9, 4.1.1, and 4.1.2.10. No significant nuclear
waste is produced during the activities addressed by this FEIS (activities at
KSC/CCAFS associated with preparation for launch and launch). Nuclear
waste associated with the production of the MMRTG and LWRHUs are
addressed in DOE NEPA documentation. Much of this information can be
found in references DOE 1993, 2000, 2002, 2002b, 2008, and 2013.
Each of these scoping comments was considered in developing the Draft EIS and FEIS.
1.5 RESULTS OF PUBLIC REVIEW OF THE DRAFT EIS
NASA published a Notice of Availability (NOA) for the Draft EIS for the proposed Mars
2020 mission in the Federal Register on June 5, 2014 (79 FR 32577). The NOA was
mailed by NASA to about 200 potentially interested Federal, state, and local agencies;
organizations; and individuals, with most also receiving a copy of the Draft EIS. In
1-9
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
addition, the Draft EIS was made available on NASA’s NEPA website
(http://www.nasa.gov/agency/nepa/mars2020eis). The U.S. EPA published its NOA for
the Draft EIS in the Federal Register on June 6, 2014 (79 FR 32729), that initiated the
45-day public review and comment period. Both print and digital advertisements
announcing the NOA and a June 26, 2014 virtual public comment meeting were run in
four Florida newspapers concurrently with the Federal Register notice and the start of
the comment period. The advertisements had links to the NASA website where the
NOA, Executive Summary, and the Draft EIS could be downloaded. Over 3,000 unique
IP addresses accessed the Mars 2020 EIS website. Over 400 unique IP addresses
accessed the Mars 2020 webpage that allowed the Draft EIS to be downloaded and
spent an average of over 5 minutes on the Draft EIS download page.
A public comment virtual meeting was held on June 26, 2014. This meeting was
advertised in the NOA and local (KSC area) digital and print news at the time of the
NOA. Additional digital advertisements were placed shortly before the meeting. In
addition, NASA announced the meeting through several of NASA’s social media sites
(Twitter, Facebook, and Google+) in the week prior to the meeting. Members of the
NASA Mars 2020 NEPA team presented information about the mission and the NEPA
process. Through a live streaming chat, members of the public were able to ask
questions about the mission and the Draft EIS and to provide comments on the Draft
EIS.
The public review and comment period closed on July 21, 2014. NASA received ten
sets of comments (by letter, email, and telephone) from two Federal agencies, one
State agency, two private organizations, and five individuals. All comments were
reviewed and considered in preparation of this Final EIS. The comments received
included “no comments” on the Draft EIS; general support for NASA and for the
mission; objection to the mission in general and, specifically, to the use of radioactive
material on the mission; and requests for additional information on specific sections of
the document. All comment submissions received by NASA during the Draft EIS public
comment period can be found in Appendix D of this Final EIS, together with NASA’s
responses to the specific comments.
1.6 CHANGES TO THE DRAFT EIS
During the time between publication of the Draft EIS and the Final EIS, NASA
completed the competitive selection of scientific instruments that would be used on the
Mars 2020 mission if Alternatives 1, 2, or 3 were selected. The Draft EIS for the Mars
2020 mission identified the potential for some of the science instruments to include
some small quantities of radioisotope sources similar to that used on the Curiosity rover.
The instruments selected through the Mars 2020 AO competition (completed after the
publication of the Draft EIS) are not anticipated to include any radioisotope source
material. Therefore, the potential radiological environmental impacts identified in the
Draft EIS associated with these radiological sources are no longer applicable to
Alternatives 1, 2, and 3, and the discussion of these impacts have been removed from
this Final EIS.
1-10
2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
2-1
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
CCAFS, Brevard County, Florida, during a 20-day launch opportunity that runs
from July through August 2020, and would be inserted into a trajectory toward
Mars. Should the mission be delayed, the proposed Mars 2020 mission would be
launched during the next available launch opportunity in August through
September 2022. A description of Alternative 3 is presented in Section 2.3.
No Action Alternative — NASA would discontinue preparations for any Mars
2020 mission and the spacecraft would not be launched. A description of the No
Action Alternative is presented in Section 2.4.
The Mars 2020 Science Definition Team (SDT) report (Mars 2020 SDT 2013)
suggested baseline4 operational capabilities for the Mars 2020 mission. These
capabilities were part of the basis for capability requirements that NASA provided both
in an Announcement of Opportunity (AO) for Mars 2020 Investigations (NASA 2013c)
and for the landing site selection process (NASA 2014b). The capability requirements
for the proposed Mars 2020 mission are summarized in Figure 2-1 and Table 2-1.
Achieving these baseline capabilities would maximize the potential for the mission to be
most responsive to real-time discoveries and fulfill its comprehensive science
objectives.
4
Baseline is defined as measurements or capabilities necessary to achieve the science objectives of the
mission and a point of departure from where implementation begins. The SDT report defined a threshold
level as a measurement or capability level below which a mission may not be worth the investment.
2-2
2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
Table 2-1. Baseline Operational Capabilities for the Mars 2020 Mission
Launch-Related Capability
Be ready for launch during the 2020 Mars opportunity.
Be compatible with an intermediate/heavy class expendable launch vehicle.
Arrival and Landing-Site-Related Capability
Provide data communication throughout critical events at a rate sufficient to determine the state of the
spacecraft in support of fault reconstruction.
Be capable of landing on the surface of Mars within a 25 km x 20 km (16 mi x 12 mi) elliptical target
area. Improved ability to avoid terrain hazards within the targeted landing area.
Be capable of landing between 30° north and 30° south latitudes.
Be capable of landing and operating at an elevation of up to +0.5 km (about 0.3 mi) as defined by the
survey by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter.
Functional Capability
Be designed to operate for at least one Mars year (687 Earth days).
Be capable of adequate mobility to ensure representative measurement of diverse sites at distances of
at least 20 km (12 mi).
Science Capability
Accommodate the NASA-selected science payload capable of definitively analyzing the mineralogy,
chemistry, texture, and structure of surface and near-surface materials; and be capable of detecting
organic material. Instrumentation suite would include the capability for context imaging, context
mineralogy, fine-scale imaging, fine-scale mineralogy, fine-scale elementary chemistry, and organic
detection.
Provide the capability for 31 to 38 samples to be acquired for caching or potential caching (includes:
rock, regolith and/or dust, blanks/standards).
Technology Capability
Demonstrate a technology enabling future human missions to Mars.
2-3
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
at Mars. The cruise phase would last approximately 7 months depending on the exact
launch date, trajectory, and selected landing site.
The spacecraft’s trajectory from Earth would be designed for a direct entry into the
Martian atmosphere, without the spacecraft first entering into orbit around Mars. A final
trajectory correction maneuver would be performed prior to separation of the cruise
stage from the entry vehicle. Cruise stage separation would occur from 20 to 40 minutes
before atmospheric entry. The cruise stage would enter the Martian atmosphere and
would break apart and burn up from friction and heating.
The arrival date at Mars would range from January 2021 to March 2021. The arrival
date at Mars is constrained by many factors including the need for real-time data
transmission from the spacecraft during the critical entry, descent, and landing (EDL)
operations so that fault reconstruction could be developed should a failure occur. This
capability would be implemented most efficiently during the Mars 2020 mission via high
data rate communication. A high-rate communication link would allow real-time
transmission of all critical engineering data (e.g., spacecraft position and orientation,
and confirmation of deployment sequences).
For the Mars 2020 mission, this could only be achieved by using a pre-positioned Mars
orbiting spacecraft to relay transmissions from the Mars 2020 flight system to Earth.
Currently available orbiting spacecraft for EDL communications and surface operations
relay include the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), which entered Mars orbit in
March 2006; Mars Odyssey, which entered orbit in October 2001; and MAVEN, which
launched in November of 2013 and arrived at Mars in September 2014 . In addition, a
planned future mission would provide an opportunity for additional Mars-orbiting
spacecraft before the Mars 2020 mission arrives at Mars. This mission—the ExoMars
Trace Gas Orbiter (a European Space Agency mission with NASA support) with a
planned arrival at Mars in 2016—would insert spacecraft with communications
capabilities able to support the Mars 2020 mission. NASA would coordinate among
these four missions to identify which would provide the optimal high data rate
communication relay spacecraft for the Mars 2020 arrival event and for subsequent
rover surface operations. The constraints on launch dates and arrival conditions during
the 20-day launch period, including mutual visibility at arrival among the orbiting
spacecraft and the Mars 2020 spacecraft, would limit arrival to specific dates between
January 2021 and March 2021.
Figure 2-2 shows the positions of Earth and Mars as they orbit the sun and the seasons
for Mars. The range of Mars 2020 proposed arrival dates would coincide with the
transition from winter to spring in the northern hemisphere of Mars.
2-4
2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
Note: Earth and its orbit are in blue; Mars and its orbit in red
Figure 2-2. Arrival Dates for the Proposed Mars 2020 Mission
The exact landing site for the proposed Mars 2020 mission has not yet been selected.
The location of the landing site would be restricted to between 30 o north and 30o south
latitudes as indicated in Table 2-1. It is anticipated that the landing site would be
selected far enough in advance of the planned launch to allow sufficient time to
determine the final details of the mission design (e.g., the specific launch trajectory).
The site selection process would include a consensus recommendation by mission
scientists, utilizing very detailed, high-resolution images expected from the MRO
mission and other available science data, on the most scientifically worthy location to
land the rover. The selection process would also include NASA’s engineering
assessment of the rover’s capabilities at the proposed site. NASA would then approve
the selected site. The selected landing site would then be a factor in determination of
the optimum launch and arrival dates for the mission, given the other constraints
discussed above.
2-5
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
The EDL phase of the mission (Figure 2-3) would begin when the entry vehicle reaches
an altitude of approximately 125 km (78 mi) above the surface of Mars, and would end
with a soft touchdown of the rover on the Martian surface. The spacecraft would enter
the Mars atmosphere directly from its interplanetary trajectory after a final trajectory
correction maneuver and without entering orbit. The entry vehicle would maneuver
during the early portion of atmospheric flight in order to reduce the landing site targeting
errors that could result from pressure and density variations in the atmosphere.
Following parachute deployment at an altitude of about 12 km (7.5 mi), the heat shield
would be released, the rover’s mobility system deployed, and the landing radar initiated.
The descent stage and rover would be released from the backshell about 1700
meters (m) (5,580 feet (ft)) above the surface and the terminal descent engines would
be fired to slow the descending vehicle. At just over 20 m (66 ft) above the landing site,
the rover would be lowered from the descent stage on tether/umbilical lines for a
wheels-down soft landing on the Martian surface, called the “skycrane” phase of the
landing sequence. The exact landing site is expected to be within a 25 km x 20 km (16
mi x 12 mi) elliptical area, although an improved EDL stage that would reduce the size
of the landing area to an 18 km x 14 km (11 mi x 8.7 mi) elliptical area is being
considered for the Mars 2020 mission. The tether/umbilical lines connecting the descent
stage and the rover would be released, and the descent stage with the tether/umbilical
lines attached would perform a fly-away maneuver to a hard landing a safe distance
from the rover.
After landing on Mars, primary surface operations would commence and last for
approximately one Martian year, which is 669 sols5 or 687 Earth days. Under nominal
initialization procedures, initial rover health checks would include calibration/checkout of
the high gain antenna gimbal and the rover mast azimuth/elevation mechanism,
removal of any engineering camera covers, and checkout of arm and mobility actuators.
The rover would check the status of all major subsystems. Initial landed engineering
camera and science instrument payload health checks would also occur during surface
operations phase initialization, as well as a transition to the surface flight software load
(i.e., a replacement of the onboard interplanetary cruise flight software with a flight
software load tailored for the operation of a rover on the surface of a planet). A second
phase of rover commissioning would include further checkout of mobility and arm
functionality before the rover would be ready to start nominal science operations. In
addition, first-time activities during nominal surface operations would require additional
scrutiny. For example, first-time activities on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL)
Curiosity rover system included the first use of sample processing hardware and the
first use of the corer. Mars 2020 would have comparable first-time activities to
implement upon landing.
5
1 sol = 1 Martian day = 24 hours, 37 minutes = 1.026 Earth days.
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
Figure 2-5. The Mars 2020 Descent Stage and Proposed Mars 2020 Rover
The preferred alternative rover, illustrated in Figure 2-6, would be made from an all-
aluminum primary structure with machined panels. The thermal subsystem would
include a heat exchange radiator system that allows use of the waste heat from the
Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) to keep the avionics
and communication systems within thermal limits throughout Mars’ daily and seasonal
temperature variations. The mobility system would connect to the rover chassis. The
rover would be designed to accommodate a payload module that would contain the
body-mounted instruments and payload element, as well as the robotic arm. The rover
would also support a remote sensing mast that would provide an elevated platform for
critical engineering and scientific assets such as navigation imaging cameras, science
imaging cameras, remote sensing instruments, and, possibly, meteorology instruments.
The payload instrumentation planned for the Mars 2020 mission were selected by
NASA through a competitive process—AO for Mars 2020 Investigations (NASA
2013c)—to meet the science objectives summarized in Chapter 1. The payload includes
the science instrumentation used for investigating the surface of Mars (objectives A and
B: to explore an astrobiologically relevant environment and to seek signs of life) and
technology capabilities (objectives C and D: to make technical progress towards sample
return and further preparation for human and robotic exploration).
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
Figure 2-7. The Science Instrumentation for the Proposed Mars 2020 Rover
Context Mineralogy. This measurement would serve a dual role in supplying
reconnaissance information for possible drive targets and providing context for fine-
scale measurements. Context mineralogy would identify, from afar, the presence of key
mineral phases in surface targets to support the selection of specific outcrops, rocks,
and soils to investigate in detail with other rover instrumentation, especially with respect
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
to identifying potential areas that show signs of past habitable environments and the
preservation of signs of life.
Fine-scale Imaging. The objectives of this measurement would be to characterize grain
form and structure and the textural fabric of rocks and soils at a microscopic scale. Data
from this investigation would: 1) contribute to the characterization of the rover site’s
geological environment; 2) illuminate details of local geologic history, such as
crystallization of igneous rocks, deposition and conversion of sediment to rock, and
weathering and erosion; and 3) assist in the search for structural signs of life, if
preserved, in the rock record.
Fine-scale Mineralogy. The objectives of this investigation would be to detect and to
measure the spatial distribution, at sub-millimeter scale, of the signatures of key
minerals in outcrops, rocks, and soils. For Objective B, a key purpose of the
mineralogical measurement would be to detect potential biominerals and determine the
mineral composition of other potential biosignatures and associated materials.
Fine-scale Elemental Chemistry. The objective of this investigation would be to
measure the abundances of major and selected minor elements most indicative of
igneous, alteration, and sedimentary processes. The science goals of these
measurements would be to determine the fine-scale elemental chemistry of
sedimentary, igneous and alteration features, and (for Objective B) to detect potential
chemical signs of life, determine the elemental composition of potential signs of life, and
search for historical evidence of the activity of liquid water.
Organic Matter Detection. Organic matter detection would provide observations for
assessing the processes that influence preservation of information about ancient
environments. Detection of organic matter, via the identification of reduced carbon
compounds in near-surface materials, could be used to help characterize meteoritic
inputs, hydrothermal processes, atmospheric processes, and other potential processes
that might form organic matter. Lastly, in order to identify the most desirable samples for
possible return to Earth, detecting organic matter at a site would be valuable
In addition to the six threshold investigations described above, baseline investigations
would include a second method of organic detection—both to provide contextual
information on habitability and potential signs of life and to select, if possible, samples
with preserved organic chemistry—as well as subsurface sensing, in situ resource
utilization, and surface weather monitoring.
Subsurface Sensing. Techniques that sense subsurface structural continuity could
provide contextual information complementary to that obtained by the envisaged
threshold payload for surface exposures. Ground-penetrating radar is a relevant
technique that could provide information to better understand local stratigraphy.
In Situ Resource Utilization. The highest priority investigation to meet the needs for
Objective D would be the demonstration of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture, oxygen (O2)
generation, and dust characterization for atmospheric In Situ Resource Utilization
(ISRU). This payload addresses two high-priority items: demonstrating atmospheric
ISRU and measuring dust properties. It would be an architecture-enabling technology
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
for human missions to Mars, which will likely depend on ISRU for producing the
propellants needed for the return trip to Earth; ISRU can greatly reduce mass
transported to the Martian surface. ISRU would demonstrate dust filtration and non-
intrusive measurement during Mars CO2 capture and subsequent CO2 collection and
generation of O2.
Surface Weather Monitoring. The inclusion of a surface weather station on the Mars
2020 payload would provide validation data for global atmosphere models that would
enable validation of global model extrapolations of surface pressure. It would also
provide local-surface and near-surface validation data to validate regional and local
model atmospheric conditions. Parameters monitored could include pressure,
temperature, winds, humidity, and thermal and solar radiation cycles. This set of
instrumentation would address a number of climatological science questions and
objectives.
The science instruments selected to take the measurements needed to meet the
objectives identified in Table 2-2 are:
Mastcam-Z, an advanced camera system with panoramic and stereoscopic
imaging capability with the ability to zoom. The instrument would also determine
mineralogy of the Martian surface and assist with rover operations.
SuperCam, an instrument that would provide imaging, chemical composition
analysis, and mineralogy. The instrument would also be able to detect the
presence of organic compounds in rocks and regolith from a distance.
Planetary Instrument for X-ray Lithochemistry (PIXL), an X-ray fluorescence
spectrometer that would also contain an imager with high resolution to determine
the fine-scale elemental composition of Martian surface materials. PIXL would
provide capabilities that permit more detailed detection and analysis of chemical
elements than ever before.
Scanning Habitable Environments with Raman & Luminescence for Organics and
Chemicals (SHERLOC), a spectrometer that would provide fine-scale imaging
and uses an ultraviolet (UV) laser to determine fine-scale mineralogy and detect
organic compounds. SHERLOC would be the first UV Raman spectrometer to fly
to the surface of Mars and would provide complementary measurements with
other instruments in the payload.
The Mars Oxygen ISRU Experiment (MOXIE), an exploration technology
investigation that will produce oxygen from Martian atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Mars Environmental Dynamics Analyzer (MEDA), a set of sensors that would
provide measurements of temperature, wind speed and direction, pressure,
relative humidity, and dust size and shape.
The Radar Imager for Mars' subsurFAce eXperiment (RIMFAX), a ground-
penetrating radar that would provide centimeter-scale resolution of the geologic
structure of the subsurface.
In addition to the competitively selected investigations, another baselined investigation
would be a flight of an enhanced EDL instrumentation payload to acquire temperature
and pressure measurements on the heat shield and other parts of the spacecraft. The
temperature and pressure measurements during atmospheric entry would be used to
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
validate analytical models for designing future EDL systems. EDL systems capable of
landing large payloads on Mars are an architecture enabling technology for human
missions.
Another possible EDL technology demonstration would include technologies to improve
EDL precision (reduce the size of the potential landing area or better ensure landing
survival). Potential technologies include: a Range Trigger, improved technology for
deployment of the parachute based on range to the landing site; Terrain Relative
Navigation (TRN), navigation by matching visual images of the landing site taken during
descent to images taken from orbit; and terminal hazard avoidance systems, a
combination of landing site hazard identification and terminal guidance technologies.
The Draft EIS for the Mars 2020 mission identified the potential for some of the science
instruments to include some small amounts of radioisotope sources. The instruments
selected through the instrument selection competition (completed after the publication of
the Draft EIS) and identified above are not anticipated to include any radioisotope
source material. However, it is still possible that the instruments could include
radioisotopes for calibration purposes. The quantity of radioisotopes used for this
purpose are very small and their use has been determined to have no significant impact
(NASA 2011).
2.1.3 Rover Electrical Power
The proposed Mars 2020 rover would use a Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric
Generator (MMRTG), provided to NASA by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), as
the source of electrical power for its engineering subsystems and science payload. This
is the same power supply used by the MSL. The MMRTG would be the only
radioisotope thermoelectric generator available for the Mars 2020 mission. NASA has
pursued the development of both the MMRTG and an Advanced Stirling Radioisotope
Generator (ASRG) (NASA 2006b). However, NASA announced in November 2013 that
it decided to end procurement of and discontinue work on the development of ASRG
flight hardware. Therefore, an ASRG would not be available for the Mars 2020 mission.
An MMRTG (Figure 2-8) converts heat from the natural radioactive decay of plutonium
(in a ceramic form called plutonium dioxide consisting mostly of plutonium-238) into
usable electrical power. RTGs have been successfully used on 27 previously-flown
United States space missions (Table 2-3), including six Apollo flights, and the Pioneer,
Viking, Voyager, Galileo, Ulysses, Cassini, New Horizons, and MSL missions. The
evolutionary development of radioisotope power systems has resulted in several RTG
configurations, evolving from the Systems for Nuclear Auxiliary Power (SNAP)-3 RTG
through the Multi-Hundred Watt (MHW)-RTG to the General Purpose Heat Source
(GPHS)-RTG used for the New Horizons mission to Pluto. The MMRTG is designed for
applications both in the vacuum of deep space and on the surface of bodies with an
atmosphere, such as Mars.
Development of the MMRTG has been documented in NASA’s Final Programmatic
Environmental Impact Statement for the Development of Advanced Radioisotope Power
Systems (NASA 2006b).
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
Table 2-3. U.S. Space Missions Using Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs)
Activity at
Power Source
Spacecraft Mission Type Launch Date Status Launch
(number of RPSs)
(curies)
SNAP-3B7 (1) TRANSIT 4A Navigational Jun 29, 1961 Currently in Earth orbit 1,500 – 1,600
SNAP-3B8 (1) TRANSIT 4B Navigational Nov 15, 1961 Currently in Earth orbit 1,500 – 1,600
SNAP-9A (1) TRANSIT 5BN-1 Navigational Sep 28, 1963 Currently in Earth orbit 17,000
SNAP-9A (1) TRANSIT 5BN-2 Navigational Dec 5, 1963 Currently in Earth orbit 17,000
SNAP-9A (1) TRANSIT 5BN-3 Navigational Apr 21, 1964 Mission aborted; RPS burned up on reentry as designed 17,000
SNAP-19B2 (2) NIMBUS-B-1 Meteorological May 18, 1968 Mission aborted; RPS retrieved intact 34,400
SNAP-19B2 (2) NIMBUS III Meteorological Apr 14, 1969 Currently in Earth orbit 37,000
(a)
SNAP-27 (1) APOLLO 12 Lunar Nov 14, 1969 ALSEP shut down and remains on lunar surface 44,500
SNAP-27 (1) APOLLO 13 Lunar Apr 11, 1970 Mission aborted on way to moon; ALSEP (in Lunar 44,500
Module) was successfully targeted to the southwest
Pacific Ocean in the vicinity of the Tonga Trench for safe
disposal
SNAP-27 (1) APOLLO 14 Lunar Jan 31, 1971 ALSEP shut down and remains on lunar surface 44,500
SNAP-27 (1) APOLLO 15 Lunar Jul 26, 1971 ALSEP shut down and remains on lunar surface 44,500
SNAP-19 (4) PIONEER 10 Planetary Mar 2, 1972 Successfully operated to Jupiter and beyond 80,000
SNAP-27 (1) APOLLO 16 Lunar Apr 16, 1972 ALSEP shut down and remains on lunar surface 44,500
TRANSIT-RTG (1) TRIAD-01-1X Navigational Sep 2, 1972 Currently in Earth orbit 24,000
SNAP-27 (1) APOLLO 17 Lunar Dec 7, 1972 ALSEP shut down and remains on lunar surface 44,500
SNAP-19 (4) PIONEER 11 Planetary Apr 5, 1973 Successfully operated to Jupiter, Saturn and beyond 80,000
SNAP-19 (2) VIKING 1 Planetary Aug 20, 1975 Lander shut down and remains on surface of Mars 41,000
SNAP-19 (2) VIKING 2 Planetary Sep 9, 1975 Lander shut down and remains on surface of Mars 41,000
MHW-RTG (2) LES 8 Communications Mar 14, 1976 Successfully operating in Earth orbit 159,400
MHW-RTG (2) LES 9 Communications Mar 14, 1976 Successfully operating in Earth orbit 159,400
MHW-RTG (3) VOYAGER 2 Planetary Aug 20, 1977 Successfully operated to Neptune and beyond 240,000
MHW-RTG (3) VOYAGER 1 Planetary Sep 5, 1977 Successfully operated to Saturn and beyond 240,000
(b)
GPHS-RTG (2) GALILEO Planetary Oct 18, 1989 Successfully operated in Jupiter orbit; after 8 years, 269,000
spacecraft purposefully entered Jupiter's atmosphere
GPHS-RTG (1) ULYSSES Planetary Oct 6, 1990 Successfully operated for 19 years until spacecraft 132,500
purposefully shutdown, currently in heliocentric orbit
(b)
GPHS-RTG (3) CASSINI Planetary Oct 15, 1997 Successfully operating in Saturn orbit 404,000
GPHS-RTG (1) NEW HORIZONS Planetary Jan 19, 2006 Successfully operating in flight to Pluto 121,000
MMRTG (1) MSL Planetary Nov 26, 2011 Successfully operating on the surface of Mars 58,700
(a) Apollo Lunar Surface Experiments Package.
(b) Includes inventory from Radioisotope Heater Units.
Note: The proposed Mars 2020 mission would use one MMRTG with approximately 60,000 curies.
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
An MMRTG contains about 4.8 kg (10.6 lb) of plutonium dioxide with a total radiological
activity of about 60,000 curies (Ci). Plutonium can exist in a number of different
radioactive isotopic forms. The principal plutonium isotope in the fuel, in terms of mass
and total activity, is Pu-238. Table 2-4 provides representative characteristics and the
isotopic composition of the plutonium dioxide in the MMRTG (SNL 2014). Plutonium
dioxide has a density of 9.6 grams per cubic centimeter (5.5 ounces per cubic inch),
melts at 2,400 degrees Celsius (°C) (4,352 degrees Fahrenheit (°F)), and boils at
3,870°C (6,998°F).
The DOE designed the MMRTG to provide for containment of the plutonium dioxide fuel
to the extent feasible during all mission phases, including ground handling, launch, and
unplanned events such as reentry, impact, and post-impact situations including fires.
Under normal, accident, and post-accident conditions, the safety-related design features
of the MMRTG to be used for the Mars 2020 mission are intended to:
prevent, to the extent possible, the release of plutonium dioxide from the iridium
clad and GPHS
minimize the release and dispersion of the plutonium dioxide fuel, especially
small, respirable particles that could be hazardous to human health
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
Iridium Clads: The iridium that encases each plutonium dioxide pellet is a
strong, ductile metal that resists corrosion and does not react chemically with the
radioisotope fuel. In the event of an accident involving an impact, the iridium
cladding is designed to deform yet contain the fuel. Iridium is chemically
compatible with the graphite components of the GPHS module and the plutonium
dioxide fuel over the operating temperature range of the MMRTG, given iridium’s
high melting temperature (2,443°C (4,430°F)) and excellent impact response.
Ceramic Form of Plutonium Dioxide: The nuclear fuel used in an MMRTG is
manufactured in a ceramic form. This form has material properties similar to a
coffee cup: it tends to fracture in large, non-inhalable chunks and it is highly
insoluble; this means that it does not easily mix or become easily transportable in
water, nor does it react easily with other chemicals. Plutonium dioxide has a high
melting temperature (2,400°C (4,352°F)).
The DOE has over 30 years of experience in the engineering, fabrication, safety testing,
and evaluation of GPHS modules and continues to build upon the experience gained
from previous heat source development programs and an information base that has
grown since the 1960s.
The GPHS modules were designed to prevent the release of fuel under a wide variety of
accident scenarios, including high-speed impacts, impact by projectiles, fires, and Earth
re-entry. Previous generations of heat source designs have survived two accidents: the
heat sources on the Nimbus-B spacecraft (1968) protected the fuel from release during
an early launch abort (with the fuel subsequently being re-used on a future mission);
and the Apollo 13 lunar module (1970) carried a lunar surface science experiment
package heat source that was similarly protected during its re-entry and ocean impact.
The MMRTG and enhanced GPHS module were successfully flown on the MSL mission
that launched in November 2011 and is now operating as designed on Mars. Even
though formal safety testing is ongoing, much insight has been gained by examining the
safety testing performed on the earlier GPHS-RTG and its components. The GPHS-
RTG with 18 GPHS modules has been used on the Galileo, Ulysses, Cassini, and New
Horizons missions. Formal safety testing of both the MMRTG and GPHS-RTG
components has established a database that allows prediction of responses in accident
environments. These safety tests have covered responses to the following
environments:
impact from fragments,
other mechanical impacts,
thermal energy,
explosive overpressure, and
reentry conditions (i.e., aerodynamic loads and aerodynamic heating).
2.1.4 Operational Considerations
An MMRTG supplies sufficient power for the rover to perform operations at all times and
at all possible landing sites between 30o north and 30o south latitudes. At no time would
the rover be required to operate at less than 100% capability (constrained capacity), nor
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
would it have to hibernate (cease all operations but maintain the rover temperature
within limits needed to assure rover survival).
2.1.5 Spacecraft Processing
The Mars 2020 spacecraft would be designed, fabricated, integrated and tested at
facilities of the spacecraft provider—the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)—which is
managed for NASA by the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, CA. These
facilities have been used extensively in the past for a broad variety of spacecraft, and
no new facilities would be required for the Mars 2020 spacecraft. JPL would deliver the
spacecraft to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Florida for further testing and
integration with the MMRTG and with the launch vehicle.
The spacecraft would be received at the KSC Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility
(PHSF). The spacecraft would be inspected and comprehensive tests would be
performed, including flight and mission simulations. The DOE would deliver the MMRTG
to a KSC storage facility. Once the spacecraft tests are completed, the MMRTG would
be moved to the PHSF where it would be fitted to the rover for a pre-flight systems
check. After completing these checks, the MMRTG would be returned to storage. The
spacecraft would then be fueled with a total of about 460 kg (1,014 lb) of hydrazine
(SNL 2013), the currently estimated propellant load capability for the cruise stage and
descent stage.
A systems check and other tests would then be performed, after which the spacecraft
would be enclosed within the launch vehicle payload fairing (PLF). The PLF, containing
the spacecraft, would then be transported from the PHSF to the launch complex at KSC
or CCAFS and would be attached to the vehicle’s second stage. The aft end of the PLF
would be sealed with a barrier and connected to an environmental control system to
prevent contamination during transit.
After the Mars 2020 spacecraft and its launch vehicle have been integrated at the KSC
or CCAFS, the MMRTG would be transported to the launch complex where it would be
installed on the rover through special access panels on both the launch vehicle PLF and
the entry vehicle aeroshell (Lytal 2010). MMRTG handling at the KSC and CCAFS
would be performed under stringent conditions following all requirements governing the
use of radioactive materials. Transportation of the MMRTG between KSC and CCAFS
would be in accordance with applicable U.S. Department of Transportation and other
federal, state, and local regulations (NASA 2001).
2.1.6 Representative Launch Vehicle Configurations for the Mars 2020 Mission
Early in the development process for the proposed Mars 2020 mission, NASA plans to
issue a Request for Launch Service Proposal to all NASA Launch Service (NLS)-
approved contractors. The Request for Launch Service Proposal would contain a
statement of work and request that proposals be submitted to NASA for the Mars 2020
mission. Once the proposals are received from the NLS contractors, NASA’s Launch
Service Task Order (LSTO) board would evaluate them in accordance with LSTO
procedures and previously determined technical evaluation criteria. Upon completion of
the evaluation, NASA would identify the proposed configuration of the launch vehicle
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that would meet all the specified mission requirements and would present the best value
to the government.
The evaluations of potential environmental consequences for this FEIS, summarized in
Section 2.5 and presented in more detail in Chapter 4, were prepared before NASA
selected the launch vehicle for the proposed Mars 2020 mission. These evaluations
were based upon representative configurations of the Atlas V and Delta IV class
vehicles (the Delta IV class vehicle representing the liquid fueled Delta IV and Falcon
Heavy launch vehicles) that would have the performance capabilities necessary for the
mission. The representative launch vehicle configurations are described in the following
sections.
2.1.6.1. Description of the Atlas V Launch Vehicle
The Atlas family of launch vehicles, provided by United Launch Alliance (ULA)—a joint
venture of Lockheed Martin Corporation and The Boeing Company (a NLS-approved
contractor)—has evolved through various government and commercial programs from
the first research and development flight in 1957 through the Atlas II, III, and V
configurations. Versions of Atlas
vehicles have been built specifically
for both robotic and human space
missions. The most recent version,
the Atlas V, is currently available in
400 and 500 series configurations.
The Atlas V configurations being
considered for the proposed Mars
2020 mission are the Atlas V 541
and 551, each of which would
consist of a liquid propellant first
stage with strap-on solid rocket
boosters (SRBs), a liquid propellant
Centaur second stage, the Mars
2020 spacecraft, and the PLF. The
"541" designation denotes a 5-m
PLF, four SRBs, and a single-
engine Centaur second stage; the
“551” has five SRBs. The SRBs are
attached to the first stage and the
Centaur is mounted on top of the
first stage. The Mars 2020
spacecraft would be mounted atop
the Centaur. The PLF encloses and
protects the spacecraft. The
Atlas V, depicted in Figure 2-10, is
approximately 62.4 m (205 ft) in Source: Adapted from, ULA 2010
height (ULA 2010). Figure 2-10. An Atlas V Launch Vehicle with
Solid Rocket Boosters
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
The Centaur second stage would be ignited shortly after separation from the first stage.
Upon achieving Earth parking orbit, the Centaur engine thrust would be cut off via a
timed command. After a brief, predetermined coast period in an Earth parking orbit, the
Centaur engine would restart and the vehicle would accelerate to Earth escape velocity.
After Centaur engine cutoff, the Mars 2020 spacecraft would separate from the Centaur
and continue on its trajectory to Mars. The Centaur would continue separately into
interplanetary space.
6
The engine undergoes an automatic "health check" during this period. Should a malfunction be
detected, the engine would be shut down and the launch would be aborted.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
oxidizer. The stage also uses about 154 kg (340 lb) of hydrazine for reaction control
(Freeman 2006, ULA 2013).
2.1.6.2.3. Payload Fairing
The PLF for the Delta IV is about 5.1 m (16.8 ft) in diameter and about 19.1 m (62.7 ft)
in length and constructed of composite materials. The PLF encloses and protects the
spacecraft from thermal, acoustic, electromagnetic, and environmental conditions during
ground operations and lift-off through atmospheric ascent (ULA 2013). Figure 2-11
depicts the Mars 2020 spacecraft within the PLF envelope.
2.1.6.2.4. Delta IV Space Launch Complex-37 (SLC-37)
SLC-37 is located in the northeastern section of CCAFS. The launch complex consists
of a launch pad, a mobile service tower (MST), a fixed umbilical tower, propellant and
water storage areas, an exhaust flume, catch basins, security services, fences, support
buildings, and facilities necessary to prepare, service, and launch Delta IV vehicles
(USAF 1998, ULA 2013).
Security at SLC-37 is ensured by a perimeter fence, guards, and restricted access.
Since all operations in the launch complex would involve or be conducted in the vicinity
of liquid or solid propellants and explosive devices, the number of personnel permitted
in the area, safety clothing to be worn, the type of activity permitted, and equipment
allowed would be strictly regulated. The airspace over the launch complex would be
restricted at the time of launch.
2.1.6.2.5. Launch Vehicle Processing
Delta launch vehicle preparation activities and procedures during and after launch have
been previously documented (USAF 1998, ULA 2013). All NASA launches follow the
current standard operating procedures.
The Delta IV launch vehicle components for the Mars 2020 mission would be received
at CCAFS, where they would be inspected, stored, and processed at appropriate
facilities. When needed for launch, the components would be moved to the Horizontal
Integration Facility at SLC-37, where the launch vehicle would be assembled,
integrated, and tested. The Delta IV launch vehicle would then be moved via rail on the
MST to the launch pad at SLC-37. The PLF, containing the Mars 2020 spacecraft,
would then be transported from the PHSF at KSC directly to the launch pad at SLC-37
and mated to the second stage. The MMRTG would then be installed on the spacecraft.
The vehicle would then be loaded with hydrazine and the LOX and LH2 liquid
propellants, and undergo final preparations for launch (ULA 2013).
Processing activities for the Mars 2020 Delta IV vehicle would be similar to those
routinely practiced for other Delta launches from CCAFS. Effluents and solid or
hazardous wastes that may be generated by these activities are subject to federal and
state laws and regulations. NASA or its contractors would dispose of hazardous wastes.
CCAFS has the necessary environmental permits and procedures for conducting launch
vehicle processing activities (see Section 4.10).
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7
The engines undergo an automatic "health check" 5 seconds before liftoff. Should a malfunction be
detected, the engines would be shut down and the launch would be aborted.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
predetermined coast period in an Earth parking orbit, the second stage engine would
restart and the vehicle would accelerate to Earth escape velocity. After second stage
engine cutoff, the Mars 2020 spacecraft would separate from the second stage and
continue on its trajectory to Mars. The second stage would continue separately into
interplanetary space.
2.1.6.3. Description of the Falcon Heavy Launch Vehicle
The Falcon launch vehicle program was initiated in 2002 when SpaceX was launched
as a commercial venture. The current launch vehicle is the Falcon 9. The proposed
Falcon Heavy launch vehicle is an evolutionary version of the Falcon 9, with greater
payload capability.
The representative Falcon Heavy
configuration for the proposed
Mars 2020 mission would consist
of a liquid propellant first stage
(similar to the first stage of the
Falcon 9), and two boosters (also
similar to the first stage of the
Falcon 9), a liquid propellant
second stage, the Mars 2020
spacecraft, and a 5-m PLF. The
three first stage components are
attached to each other, and the
second stage is mounted atop the
first stage. The Mars 2020
spacecraft would be mounted atop
the second stage. The PLF
encloses and protects the
spacecraft. The Falcon Heavy,
depicted in Figure 2-15, is
approximately 68.4 m (224 ft) in
height and is capable of delivering
a 13,200 kg (29,100 lb) payload to
Mars. Unlike the Atlas V and Delta
IV vehicles, the first stages of the
Falcon Heavy are designed to be
reusable and could be recovered
from the Atlantic Ocean (SpaceX
2013, SpaceX 2013b, USAF
2011).
2.1.6.3.1. First Stage
Figure 2-15. A Falcon Heavy Launch Vehicle
The Falcon Heavy first stage fuel
tanks are constructed mostly of an
aluminum and lithium alloy. Each Falcon 9 first stage is about 3.66 m (12 ft) in diameter
and about 45.7 m (150 ft) in length. The Falcon 9 first stages are each powered by nine
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
8
Fuel quantities are for a Falcon 9. Falcon Heavy quantities may differ slightly from these amounts.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
The FTS for all candidate LVs would be armed shortly before liftoff. Each major
component of the FTS would be safed (automatically deactivated) at various times
during the vehicle's ascent when the component would no longer be needed and to
preclude its inadvertent activation. The ADS would be safed prior to separation of the
first and second stages and the CDS would be safed immediately after the second
stage when the Mars 2020 spacecraft has achieved Earth parking orbit.
For the Atlas V candidate LVs, an Inadvertent Separation Destruct System (ISDS)
would be incorporated on each of the four SRBs. In the event of an inadvertent or
premature separation of an SRB, the ISDS would initiate a linear-shaped charge to
disable the SRB after a brief time delay to assure clearance from the Atlas V. The ISDS
would be deactivated during a normal SRB separation event.
2.1.6.5. Range Safety Considerations
CCAFS has implemented range safety requirements (USAF 2004) that support
launches from KSC and CCAFS. For the Mars 2020 mission, predetermined flight safety
limits would be established for each day of the launch period. Wind criteria, impacts
from fragments that could be produced in a launch accident, dispersion and reaction
(e.g., toxic plumes, fire) of liquid and solid propellants, human reaction time, data delay
time, and other pertinent data would be considered when determining flight safety limits.
The Mission Flight Control Officer would take any necessary actions, including
destruction of the vehicle via the CDS, if the vehicle's trajectory indicates flight
malfunctions (e.g., exceeding flight safety limits) (USAF 2004).
Range Safety at CCAFS uses models to predict launch hazards to the public and
launch site personnel prior to a launch. These models calculate the risk of injury
resulting from toxic exhaust gases from normal launches, and from potentially toxic
concentrations due to a failed launch. The launch would be postponed if the predicted
collective risk of injury from exposure to toxic gases exceeds established limits (USAF
2004). Range Safety monitors launch surveillance areas to ensure that risks to people,
aircraft, and surface vessels are within acceptable limits. Controlled surveillance areas
and airspace are closed to the public as required (USAF 2004).
2.1.6.6. Electromagnetic Environment
Launch vehicles may be subject to electromagnetic conditions such as lightning,
powerful electromagnetic transmissions (e.g., radar, radio transmitters), and charging
effects (i.e., electrical charges generated by friction and the resultant electrostatic
discharges). NASA and the USAF address such conditions with respect to the design of
the launch vehicle, as well as with ordnance (e.g., explosives, explosive detonators, and
fuses), fuels, exposed surfaces of the vehicle, and critical electronic systems that must
have highly reliable operations. A large body of technical literature exists on these
subjects and has been used by NASA and the USAF in designing safeguards (see, for
example, USAF 2004). The launch vehicle, the Mars 2020 spacecraft, and the launch
support systems would be designed and tested to withstand these environments in
accordance with requirements specified in the Range Safety User Requirements
Manual (USAF 2004).
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Of the available energy per sol, approximately 100 to 600 watt-hours would be needed
to perform science operations, which would include driving to science locations, site
reconnaissance, and acquiring and analyzing samples and other scientific data (JPL
2013). The remainder of the available energy would be needed for the rover’s
engineering functions, including communications and thermal control. Figure 2-18
illustrates locations on the surface of Mars where the baseline solar array configuration
would provide sufficient power for the rover to perform science operations and maintain
its health and functionality as a function of latitude over the course of one Mars year.
40% Dust Factor
Northern Spring Summer Fall Winter
Season
Southern Fall Winter Spring Summer
o
30 N
25o N
o
20 N
o
15 N
10o N
o
5 N
o
Latitude 0
o
5 S
o
10 S
15o S
o
20 S
o
25 S
30o S
*Full year survival is not possible at any latitude with this mission configuration.
Notes: The expected arrival date for the Mars 2020 mission would coincide with the transition from winter to spring in the northern hemisphere
of Mars. This date appears on the far left of this figure.
Source: Adapted from JPL 2014
Figure 2-18. Mars 2020 Solar-Powered Rover Operability (40% Dust Factor)
As shown in Figure 2-18, one of the factors that affects the feasibility of using solar
power is the dust factor. This factor is a measure of the remaining electric power output
from the solar arrays when some solar energy is blocked due to the accumulation of
dust on the surface of the array panels. The dust factor is the percentage of the
effective array surface that remains clean, and is roughly equivalent to the total power
still available given the accumulation of dust—the lower the dust factor, the lower the
amount of electrical energy produced. A 40% dust factor9 means that 40% of the array
surface area is clean and the electrical output of the solar arrays is reduced
9
The 40% dust factor is based upon the dust accumulation rates on the MER solar arrays. The
accumulation of dust is limited by naturally occurring cleaning events. The 70% dust factor relies upon
more frequent cleaning events or active dust mitigation technology. Dust mitigation technology may
improve the dust factor to beyond 70%, but these technologies have not been demonstrated to function in
Martian environmental conditions.
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
proportionally. Higher dust factors may be achievable only with the use of active dust
mitigation technology or with the assumption of more frequent environmental cleaning
events.
For Alternative 2, sufficient solar power for one Mars year is not available at any latitude
assuming a dust factor of 40% (the solar array remains at least 40% dust free). With
more frequent dust cleaning or mitigation resulting in a dust factor of at least 70% (the
solar array remaining at least 70% dust free), the rover could operate for one Mars year
(with periods of constrained operation) only at approximately 5° south latitude.
The solar feasibility assessment (JPL 2014), which developed these estimates of rover
operability, was performed with sufficient detail to develop estimates for a
representative solar-powered rover configuration. Should NASA select Alternative 2, the
solar-powered rover design would be finalized, but any changes would likely not change
the fundamental results presented in the solar feasibility assessment.
2.2.3 Operational Considerations
As shown in Figure 2-18, for all latitudes between 30° south and 30° north, the survival
of the rover for a full Martian year would not be expected. There are times when the
rover would have to operate at less than full capabilities (Constrained Operations),
times when the rover would have to cease scientific operations and operate in a mode
where only functions needed for rover survival—primarily maintaining an acceptable
thermal environment—are performed (Hibernation), and times the rover would not
survive. These periods of reduced science operability impact the amount of science
investigation that can be performed at the various landing sites which adversely impacts
the ability of the rover to reach all of the baseline goals for the mission.
Table 2-5 shows the estimated operational lifetime of the solar-powered Mars 2020
rover as a function of landing site latitude for the anticipated arrival dates. The MMRTG
power option, which is capable of full operations for an entire Mars year, is included for
comparison purposes. This table reflects the fact that the solar power alternative with a
40% dust factor is not capable of surviving for a full Mars year, although science
operations could be performed for parts of the year. The ability of the rover to survive
longer in the northern latitudes is a result of the mission arrival dates coinciding with
spring in the northern Martian latitudes while these arrival dates are in the fall in the
southern Martian latitudes.
A larger dust factor (70%) would extend the operational lifetime of the rover and could
allow for a full Martian year mission (with periods of constrained operation) between 5°
south latitude and 0° and would marginally extend the operational lifetime of the rover at
some latitudes, thereby increasing the amount of science that could be performed.
The science capabilities associated with partial-year operation are provided in Table
2-6. These capabilities are expressed in terms of the percentage of the samples that
could be obtained given a full year of operation with no limitations (constrained
operations or hibernation).
For comparison, Alternative 1 provides 100% capability. Given the assumptions for
initial checkout and rover movement (driving from site to site) any landing site with an
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
operational lifetime of 40% or less would not provide the opportunity to perform any
sampling activities unless the rover movement was curtailed.
Table 2-5. Operational Lifetime for a Solar-Powered Rover
a
Operational Lifetime
Option Solar MMRTG
o
30 N 50% 100%
o
25 N 50% 100%
o
20 N 50% 100%
o
15 N 55% 100%
o
10 N 60% 100%
o
5 N 60% 100%
o
Latitude 0 60% 100%
o
5 S 35% 100%
o
10 S 25% 100%
o
15 S 25% 100%
o
20 S 20% 100%
o
25 S 15% 100%
o
30 S 10% 100%
Source: Adapted from JPL 2014
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
Feasibility Study (JPL 2014). In Alternative 3, the MMRTG would be replaced and the
rover would be powered by solar power arrays, similar to that proposed in Alternative 2.
The rover used in this alternative would rely on the power generated by solar arrays to
generate electricity to operate the rover’s scientific instrumentation, communication
equipment, and to provide motive power. In addition to the solar arrays, the rover in this
alternative would incorporate up to 71 LWRHUs as a heat source. Power from the solar
arrays would also power electric heaters to augment the LWRHUs to help maintain the
thermal environment required to ensure the survival of the rover’s engineering
subsystems and science payload. As described in the following sections, the additional
thermal power from the LWRHUs extends the operational capabilities of the rover to
include an expanded selection of landing sites and an increased science return
capability. Should NASA make changes in Alternative 3 that are relevant to
environmental concerns, NASA would evaluate the need for additional environmental
analysis and documentation.
2.3.1 Mission and Spacecraft Description
Many of the technical aspects of the mission and spacecraft designs for Alternative 3
would be similar to those described in Section 2.1 for Proposed Action (Alternative 1).
These would include the following major features.
The Mars 2020 spacecraft would be launched from KSC or CCAFS onboard an
expendable launch vehicle from the Atlas V, Delta IV, or Falcon Heavy class of
vehicles (see Section 2.1.5 for representative descriptions of these vehicles).
The mission design would be as described in Section 2.1.1, including a launch
opportunity in July to August of 2020, with a backup opportunity in August to
September 2022, and an Earth-Mars trajectory leading to direct entry of the
spacecraft into the Martian atmosphere.
The Mars 2020 flight system would consist of a high-heritage MSL cruise stage,
entry vehicle, and descent stage as described in Section 2.1.2, and a science
rover.
The rover’s science instrument payload would be as described in Table 2-2.
Planning for the rover science mission would be based upon an operational
timeline similar to that described in Section 2.1.1.
2.3.1.1. Solar Power Supply System
The solar power system that would be used for Alternative 3 is the same system as
described in Section 2.2.1.1 for Alternative 2.
2.3.1.2. Radioisotope Heater Units
The Mars 2020 rover could use a combination of LWRHUs and electric heaters to
maintain internal temperature during periods of extreme cold. Alternative 3 considers
the use of up to 71 such LWRHUs (JPL 2014). Each LWRHU (see Figure 2-19) would
produce about 1 thermal watt of heat derived from the radioactive decay of 2.7 grams
(g) (0.095 ounce (oz)) of plutonium (mostly plutonium-238) in the form of a ceramic of
plutonium dioxide. Each LWRHU would contribute approximately 33.2 Ci for a total
plutonium inventory of up to 2,360 Ci. Table 2-7 provides the typical radionuclide
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
composition of a LWRHU’s fuel. The exterior dimensions of a LWRHU are 2.6 cm (1.03
in) in diameter by 3.2cm (1.26 in) in length. Each LWRHU has a mass of about 40g
(1.4 oz).
LWRHUs are designed to contain the plutonium dioxide during normal operations and
under a wide range of accident environments. The integrity and durability of LWRHUs
have been well documented by the U.S. Department of Energy (SNL 2014). The
plutonium dioxide ceramic is encapsulated in a 70% platinum and 30% rhodium alloy
clad. A fine weave pierced fabric of carbon graphite used as a heat shield provides
protection against high-temperature accident environments, and a series of concentric
pyrolitic graphite10 sleeves and end plugs thermally insulate the encapsulated
radioactive material. The LWRHU’s plutonium dioxide is principally protected from
ground or debris impact by the alloy clad. The heat shield and inner pyrolitic graphite
insulators provide additional protection.
10
Pyrolitic graphite is a man-made form of graphite, created by heating graphite and allowing it to cool
into a crystalline form. This type of graphite has enhanced thermal conduction properties compared to
ordinary graphite.
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Note: The expected arrival date for the Mars 2020 mission would coincide with the transition from winter to spring in the northern hemisphere
of Mars. This date appears on the far left of this figure.
Source: Adapted from JPL 2014
Figure 2-20. Mars 2020 Solar-Powered (with LWRHUS) Rover Operability with 40%
Dust Factor
2.3.3 Operational Considerations
As shown in Figure 2-20, for all latitudes between 30° south and 30° north, the ability of
the rover to fully perform for a full year is restricted. There are times when the rover
would have to operate at less than full capability (Constrained Operations), times when
the rover would have to cease scientific operations and operate in a mode where only
functions needed for rover survival—primarily maintaining an acceptable thermal
environment—are performed (Hibernation), and times the rover would not survive. Full
year survival is only possible between 20° and 5° south latitudes. The periods of
reduced science operability impact the amount of science investigation that can be
performed at the various landing sites which adversely impacts the ability of the rover to
reach all of the baseline goals for the mission.
Table 2-8 shows the estimated operational lifetime of the solar-powered Mars 2020
rover as a function of landing site latitude for the anticipated arrival dates. The MMRTG
power option, which is capable of full operations for an entire Mars year, is included for
comparison purposes. The numbers shown for a partial-year operation are indicative of
how long the rover would be expected to survive before failing due to cold weather. The
ability to survive longer in the northern latitudes is a result of the mission arrival dates
coinciding with spring in the northern Martian latitudes, while these arrival dates are in
the fall in the southern Martian latitudes.
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
o
30 N 50% 100%
o
25 N 55% 100%
o
20 N 60% 100%
o
15 N 60% 100%
o
10 N 60% 100%
o
5 N 65% 100%
o
Latitude 0 70% 100%
o
5 S 100% 100%
o
10 S 100% 100%
o
15 S 100% 100%
o
20 S 100% 100%
o
25 S 25% 100%
o
30 S 15% 100%
Source: Adapted from JPL 2014
Larger dust factors would improve the operational capabilities of the rover; however,
even with a dust factor of 70%, a full year of rover operation is possible only between
20° south and 15° north latitudes. . Even with this improved operating range, there
would be periods of constrained science operation and hibernation. The improvement in
survivability would result in an increase in the amount of science that could be
performed and an increase in the range of locations and, therefore, the number of
potential landing sites.
The science capabilities associated with a partial-year operation are provided in Table
2-6. These capabilities are expressed in terms of the percentage of the samples that
could be obtained given a full year of operation with no limitations (constrained
operations or hibernation). For comparison, Alternative 1 provides 100% capability.
Although the rover would be expected to survive for an entire year at latitudes between
20° and 5° south, it would not be able to operate at full capacity for the entire year
(Figure 2-20). The limited operational capability during the winter (constrained operation
and hibernation) limit the amount of science that can be performed to 60 to 70% of that
possible during a full year of unrestricted operations. Given the assumptions for initial
checkout and rover movement (driving from site to site) any landing site with an
operational lifetime of 40% or less would not provide the opportunity to perform any
sampling activities unless rover movement was curtailed.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
2-48
2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
Table 2-9. Estimated Science Capability Comparison of the Mars 2020 Mission
Alternatives
Rover Power Landing Site Latitude Operational Capability Percentage of Science
Alternative Range Achieved at Landing Site
Latitude
MMRTG 30°S to 30°N 100% 100%
(Alternative 1)
Solar Array 0° to 30°N Unable to Operate for Full Year 20-30%
b
(Alternative 2) Maximum Operational Lifetime 60%
(40% dust
a
factor ) 30°S to 0° Unable to Operate for Full Year a few percent
Maximum Operational Lifetime 35%
Solar Array 30°S to 20°S Unable to Operate for Full Year a few percent
with LWRHUs Maximum Operational Lifetime 25%
(Alternative 3)
20°S to 5°S Constrained Operations (up to 28%) 60-70%
(40% dust
Hibernation (up to 9%)
factor)
5°S to 30°N Unable to Operate for Full Year 20-40%
Maximum Operational Lifetime 70%
Notes:
a) The MER Opportunity dust factor has always stayed above 40%, but the MER Spirit dust factor fell below
25% (more than two Mars years into the mission). The factors controlling dust accumulation are not well known,
so there is a risk that a solar-powered mission without dust mitigation technology assuming a minimum dust
factor of 40% may fail if the actual dust accumulation exceeds that seen on Opportunity and is closer to that
seen on Spirit late in its mission. Meeting a 70% dust factor (i.e., the loss of power from the solar arrays due to
accumulated dust is limited to 30%) while promising greater science return would require development of dust
removal technology.
b) For each latittude range, the Maximum Operational Lifetime represents the longest time the rover would be
expected to survive before failing due to environmental conditions. It is expressed in terms of a full Martian year.
All values are approximate. N = North Latitude; S = South Latitude.
Source JPL 2014
Alternative 2. At most latitudes on Mars, the amount of time that a solar-powered rover
could perform science operations would be limited by the ability of the solar array to
generate sufficient power for the rover to survive the extreme thermal environment. A
solar-powered rover with arrays stowable in the available volume would not be able to
survive for a full Martian year at any latitude assuming the solar arrays remain at least
40% dust free. Partial-year operation with reduced science capability is possible over a
range of latitudes from 0° to 30°north. More favorable dust factors would result in an
increase in the operational range of the rover, expanding the latitudes at which a partial
year operation would be possible, with a full year of operation possible only at latitudes
ranging from 0° to 5° south. Operations would be limited (constrained operations or
hibernation) for parts of the year.
Alternative 3. At most latitudes on Mars, the amount of time that a solar-powered
rover, with additional thermal power from LWRHUs, could perform science operations
would be limited by the ability of the solar array and LWRHUs to generate sufficient
power for the rover to survive the extreme thermal environment. A solar-powered rover
with LWRHUs (solar arrays 40% dust free) would have sufficient power to operate for a
full Martian year at latitudes on Mars between 20° south and 5° south. Partial-year
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
operation with further reduced science capability is possible over a wider range of
latitudes. This solar/RHU-powered rover could operate for nearly a full Mars year at
latitudes ranging from 20° south to 15° north, if a more favorable solar array dust factor
of 70% is assumed.
Alternative 1, 2, and 3: 2022 Launch Opportunity. Should the mission be delayed,
the proposed Mars 2020 mission would be launched during the next available launch
opportunity in August through September 2022. The science potential associated with
Alternatives 1, 2, and 3 with a 2022 launch would be similar to those projected for each
alternative with a 2020 launch. Under all circumstances, an MMRTG-powered rover
would provide more power for science activities.
No Action Alternative. The No Action Alternate would not accomplish any science on
the surface of Mars; this does not fulfill the purpose and need for the Mars 2020 mission
as discussed in Chapter 1 of this FEIS.
2.6.2 Comparison of Potential Environmental Impacts
This section summarizes and compares the potential environmental impacts of the
Proposed Action (Alternative 1), Alternative 2, Alternative 3, and the No Action
Alternative. The anticipated impacts associated with nominal or normal implementation
of Alternatives 1, 2, and 3 are considered first (Section 2.6.2.1). This is followed by a
summary of the non-radiological impacts that could occur due to a potential launch
accident with Alternatives 1, 2, and 3 (Section 2.6.2.2); and finally a summary of
potential radiological consequences and risks from a launch accident associated with
each of the Alternatives (Section 2.6.2.3). Details of these results are addressed in
Chapter 4.
As noted in Section 2.1.5, the evaluations presented in this FEIS, based on
representative configurations of the possible launch vehicles, were completed prior to
NASA’s selection of the mission launch vehicle. NASA considers these evaluations to
adequately bound the potential environmental consequences of the alternatives
described in this FEIS. Should NASA's continuing evaluations produce results that differ
substantially from the information presented in this FEIS, NASA would consider the new
information, and determine the need, if any, for additional environmental analysis and
documentation.
2.6.2.1. Environmental Impacts of a Normal Launch
Table 2-10 provides a summary comparison of the anticipated environmental impacts
associated with normal implementation of Alternatives 1, 2, and 3, and the No Action
Alternative.
Alternatives 1, 2, and 3. The impacts associated with a successful launch were
addressed in the Final Environmental Assessment for Launch of NASA Routine
Payloads on Expendable Launch Vehicles (Routine Payloads EA) (NASA 2011) for all
candidate launch vehicles. These impacts were determined to have no significant
impacts, as detailed in the Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI) for the Routine
Payloads EA.
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
Table 2-10. Summary of Anticipated Environmental Impacts of the Mars 2020 Mission Alternatives
Mars 2020 Mission Alternatives
Impact Category
Normal Implementation of the Proposed Action and Alternatives 2 and 3 No Action Alternative
Land Use Consistent with designated land uses at KSC and CCAFS; no adverse impacts on non-launch-related land uses at No change in baseline condition.
KSC and CCAFS would be expected.
Air Quality High levels of solid propellant combustion products occur within the exhaust cloud for a launch vehicle using solid No change in baseline condition.
rocket boosters (e.g., the Atlas V).
The exhaust cloud would rise and begin to disperse near the launch complex.
Some short-term local ozone impacts. No long-term adverse air quality impacts would be expected in the region.
Noise and Sonic Boom Sound exposure levels during launch are estimated to be within OSHA and EPA regulations/guidelines for affected No change in baseline condition.
workers and the public.
Geology and Soils Some deposition of Al2O3 particulates and HCl near the launch complex for a launch vehicle using solid rocket No change in baseline condition.
boosters. No long-term adverse impacts would be expected.
Water Quality Water used for pre-launch fire protection, heat suppression, acoustic damping, and post-launch wash down is No change in baseline condition.
recovered and treated, if necessary. No long-term adverse impacts to groundwater or surface water would be
expected; short-term increase in the acidity of nearby surface waters would be expected.
Offshore Environment The offshore environments at KSC or CCAFS would be impacted by the jettisoned launch vehicle sections in pre- No change in baseline condition.
approved drop zones. Small amounts of residual propellants would be released to the surrounding water. Toxic
concentrations would not be likely because of the slow rate of the corrosion process and the large volume of ocean
water available for dilution.
Biological Resources Biota near the launch complex could be damaged or killed during launch, although no animal mortality has been No change in baseline condition.
observed that could be attributed to previous Delta and Atlas launches. Possible acidification of nearby surface
waters from solid propellant exhaust products is not expected to cause any mortality of aquatic biota. No long-term
adverse effects would be expected. No short-term or long-term impacts would be expected to threatened or
endangered species. No long-term impacts would be expected to critical habitat.
Socioeconomics No adverse impacts to socioeconomic factors such as demography, employment, transportation, and public or No change in baseline condition.
emergency services.
Environmental Justice No disproportionately high and adverse impacts would be expected. No change in baseline condition.
Global Environment Not anticipated to adversely affect global climate change. Temporary localized decrease in stratospheric ozone with No change in baseline condition.
rapid recovery would be anticipated along the launch vehicle’s flight path.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
2-53
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
(NASA 2011) for all candidate launch vehicles. These impacts were determined to have
no significant impact and are described in the FONSI for the Routine Payloads EA.
Non-radiological accidents could occur during preparation for and launch of the Mars
2020 spacecraft at KSC or CCAFS. The two most significant non-radiological accidents
would be a liquid propellant spill associated with fuel loading operations and a launch
vehicle accident.
The potential for environmental consequences would be limited primarily to liquid
propellant spills of RP-1, LH2, LOX, and hydrazine (depending on the propellants used
in the selected launch vehicle); during fueling operations; and a launch accident at or
near the launch pad. USAF safety requirements (USAF 2004) specify detailed policies
and procedures to be followed to ensure worker and public safety during liquid
propellant fueling operations. Propellant spills or releases of RP-1, LH2, and LOX would
be minimized through remotely operated actions that close applicable valves and safe
the propellant loading system. Workers performing propellant loading (e.g., RP-1 and
hydrazine) would be equipped with protective clothing and a breathing apparatus, and
uninvolved workers would be excluded from the area during propellant loading.
Propellant loading would occur only shortly before launch, further minimizing the
potential for accidents.
A launch vehicle accident on or near the launch area during the first few seconds of
flight could result in the release of the propellants (solid and liquid) onboard the launch
vehicle and the spacecraft. A launch vehicle accident would result in the prompt
combustion of a portion of the liquid propellants, depending on the degree of mixing and
ignition sources associated with the accident, and somewhat slower burning of the solid
propellant fragments, should a vehicle that uses solid rockets be selected. The resulting
emissions would resemble those from a normal launch, consisting principally of CO,
CO2, HCl, NOX, and Al2O3 from the combusted propellants, and depending on the
propellants used in the selected launch vehicle. Falling debris would be expected to
land on or near the launch pad resulting in potential secondary ground-level explosions
and localized fires. After the launch vehicle clears land, debris from an accident would
be expected to fall over the Atlantic Ocean. Modeling of accident consequences with
meteorological parameters that would result in the greatest concentrations of emissions
over land areas indicates that the emissions would not reach levels threatening public
health. Some burning solid and liquid propellants could enter surface water bodies and
the ocean resulting in short-term, localized degradation of water quality and conditions
toxic to aquatic life. Such chemicals entering the ocean would be dispersed and
buffered, resulting in little long-term impact on water quality and resident biota.
For suborbital, orbital, and reentry debris, standard safety review processes require that
NASA missions assess the amount of launch vehicle and spacecraft debris released in
normal operations. NASA Standard 8719.14, Process for Limiting Orbital Debris. (i.e.,
Requirement 4.7-1) currently limits the risk of human casualty from reentry debris to 1 in
10,000 and requires that missions be designed to assure that in both controlled and
uncontrolled entries, domestic and foreign landmasses are avoided. The Mars 2020
mission has completed the required orbital debris assessment report for the spacecraft.
The report indicates which requirements are applicable and documents compliance with
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
applicable requirements. NASA’s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance approved the
report on January 15, 2014.
The environmental impact of objects falling into the ocean would depend on the physical
properties of the materials (e.g., size, composition, quantity, and solubility) and the
marine environment of the impact region. Based on past analyses of other space
components, it is expected that the environmental impact of reentering orbital debris
would be negligible (NASA 2005b; USAF 1998). NASA has studied the potential risks
associated with reentry and Earth impact of spacecraft propellant tanks, including those
used on prior science missions to the surface of Mars. Specifically, for the MSL
spacecraft, an analysis showed that under certain launch accident conditions, there was
a small probability the spacecraft with a full propellant load (475 kg) could reenter prior
to achieving orbit and impact land in southern Africa or Madagascar. The probability of
such an accident occurring and leading to a land impact was determined to be on the
order of 1 in 20,000. The overall risk of an individual injury resulting from the land
impact of a spacecraft and exposure to hydrazine was determined to be less than 1 in
100,000 (NASA 2010b).
In accident scenarios occurring after achievement of the park orbit, analysis for the MSL
spacecraft determined that it would be extremely unlikely that there would be any
residual hydrazine remaining inside the propellant tanks at the point of ground impact
(NASA 2010b).
No Action Alternative. Under the No Action Alternative, a launch would not occur,
therefore there would be no potential for either type of accident to occur.
2.6.2.3. Potential Radiological Environmental Impacts of Launch Accidents
This section presents a summary of DOE’s Nuclear Risk Assessment for the Mars 2020
Mission Environmental Impact Statement (SNL 2014) for the Proposed Action
(Alternative 1), Alternative 2, and Alternative 3 as described in this FEIS. More detailed
information can be found in Sections 4.1.4, 4.1.5, and 4.3.4.
Alternative 1: Figure 2-21 presents summaries of launch-related probabilities for
Alternative 1 for the proposed Mars 2020 mission. These probability summaries were
derived by combining the estimated failure probabilities from the Mars 2020
Representative Data Book (NASA 2013e), and DOE’s estimated release probabilities
(SNL 2014). As such, the estimated probabilities summarized in Figure 2-21 do not
reflect the reliability of any single launch vehicle.
The most likely outcome of implementing the proposed Mars 2020 mission, with over a
97% probability, is a successful launch to Mars. The unsuccessful launches (about a
2.5 % probability) would result from either a malfunction or a launch accident. Most
malfunctions would involve trajectory control malfunctions, which would occur late in the
ascent profile. This type of malfunction would place the spacecraft on an incorrect
trajectory escaping from Earth but leading to failure of the spacecraft to reach Mars.
Most launch accidents result in destruction of the launch vehicle but would not result in
damage to the MMRTG sufficient to cause a release of some plutonium dioxide. The
analysis estimates that for less than 0.04% of the time (a probability of 1 in 2,600), a
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
launch could result in an accident with the release of plutonium dioxide, but typically not
in a quantity large enough to result in discernible radiological consequences (see
Section 2.6.2.3.2).
11
For the purposes of the risk analysis, DOE assumed the rover could include up to 80 LWRHUs.
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
The differences between the three rover configurations (MMRTG powered, solar-
powered with no LWRHUs, and solar-powered with LWRHUs) do not significantly
impact the accident probability for the mission. However, the probability of an accident
with a release of plutonium dioxide is smaller, 0.006% (1 in 15,000), for the solar-
powered rover with LWRHUs configuration, than for the MMRTG powered rover. The
amount of material released is typically not large enough to result in discernible
radiological consequences. (See Section 2.6.2.3.2)
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
12
An average of about 0.3 rem per year is received by an individual in the United States from natural
sources. The dose from man-made sources, such as medical diagnosis and therapy, could be as high as
an additional 0.3 rem. See Section 3.2.6 for further information.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
For individual phases of the mission in which accidents can result in a plutonium dioxide
release, the maximum dose received by an individual ranges from 0.0013 to 0.0042 rem
and the additional latent cancer fatalities range from 0.006 to 0.020. Accidents occurring
during phases 2, 4, and 5 are not expected to release any plutonium dioxide. The
largest values are both associated with accidents with releases that occur during the
Early Launch Phase (Phase 1).
Table 2-11 provides a summary of the human health consequences for all mission
phases for each alternative.
Should the mission be delayed, the proposed Mars 2020 mission would be launched
during the next available launch opportunity in August through September 2022. Since
this launch period is in a similar season as the 2020 launch period, the projected
radiological impacts would be similar, with only a small increase in population impacts
due to population growth. Thus, within the overall uncertainties, the radiological impacts
associated with a 2022 launch would be the same as those for the proposed 2020
launch.
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
Maximum
Individual 0.00029 0.06 0.000016 0.043 0.0005 0.0008 0.016
Dose, rem
Latent Cancer
(a) 0.0014 0.29 0.000078 0.20 0.0026 0.0038 0.076
Fatalities
Alternative 2 Probability of
an Accident N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
with a Release
Maximum
Individual N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Dose, rem
Latent Cancer
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Fatalities
Alternative 3 - Probability of
1 in (b) (b) (b)
LWRHUs an Accident 1 in 3,200,000 0 1 in 430,000 0 0 1 in 15,000
16,000
with a Release
Maximum
Individual 0.0030 0.0042 - 0.0013 - - 0.0041
Dose, rem
Latent Cancer
0.015 0.020 - 0.0060 - - 0.020
Fatalities
(a) A latent cancer fatality of less than 1.0 can be interpreted as the probability of the occurrence of one or more latent cancer fatalities. For
example, a value of 0.25 would be a one in four chance that the accident would result in one or more latent cancer fatalities.
(b) The multiple protective layers of the LWRHUs would be sufficient to prevent the release of fuel under all circumstances during these
types of launch accidents. Therefore, the release probability is 0.0 and there are no associated radiological consequences as indicated
by the “-.”
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
For alternatives 1 and 3, costs associated with potential characterization and cleanup,
should decontamination be required, could vary widely ($110 million to $611 million per
km2 or about $284 million to $1.58 billion per mi2) depending upon the characteristics
and size of the contaminated area. The Price-Anderson Act of 1957, as amended (42
U.S.C. 2210), established a system of financial protection for persons who may be liable
for and for persons who may be injured in the event of a nuclear incident arising out of
activities conducted by or on behalf of the DOE. In the case of the Mars 2020 mission,
DOE retains title and responsibility for the MMRTG or LWRHUs. In the event that an
accident were to occur resulting in release of plutonium dioxide from the MMRTG or
LWRHUs, affected property owners within or outside the United States would be eligible
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
for compensation for damages to or loss of property arising from the nuclear incident in
accordance with the provisions of the Price-Anderson Act.
In addition to the potential direct costs of radiological surveys, monitoring, and potential
cleanup following an accident, there are potential secondary societal costs associated
with the decontamination and mitigation activities due to launch area accidents. Those
costs may include: temporary or longer term relocation of residents; temporary or longer
term loss of employment; destruction or quarantine of agricultural products, including
citrus crops; land use restrictions; restriction or bans on commercial fishing; and public
health effects and medical care.
The areas that could be contaminated to the extent that these secondary costs would
be incurred are not necessarily the same as the area contaminated above 0.2 μCi/m2.
For example, the Food and Drug Administration has provided guidelines for crop
contamination intended to ensure contaminated foodstuffs would not endanger the
health and safety of the public. These guidelines, in the form of Derived Intervention
Levels (DILs) identify the level of contamination above which some action
(decontamination, destruction, quarantine, etc.) is required. For potential launch area
accidents, DOE has estimated that the crop area contaminated above the DIL would be
over 50 times smaller than the area contaminated above 0.2 μCi/m2.
2.6.2.3.3. Mission Risks
To place the estimates of potential health effects due to launch accidents for the
proposed Mars 2020 mission into a perspective that can be compared with other human
undertakings and events, it is useful to use the concept of risk. Risk is commonly
viewed as the possibility of harm or damage. For the Mars 2020 mission, public risk is
characterized in terms of the expectation of health effects in a statistical sense. The risk
for each mission phase and for the overall mission is estimated by multiplying the total
probability of a release by the health effects resulting from that release. Risk calculated
in this manner can also be interpreted as the probability of one or more health effects
occurring in the exposed population.
Population Risks
For Alternative 1 of the Mars 2020 mission, overall population health effects risk from
the release of plutonium dioxide is estimated to be about 1 in 34,000—that is, one
chance in 34,000 of an additional health effect. For accidents that may occur in the
launch area, not everyone within 100 km (62 mi) of the launch site would be potentially
exposed. Who would be potentially exposed is dependent upon several factors,
including the weather conditions at the time of the accident. The total probability of a
health effect within the regional population is about 1 in 61,000, or about 57% of the
total risk for the overall mission. For the global population (excluding those exposed in
the launch area region) the risk would be due to the potential for accidental release
occurring from pre-Launch through Mars trajectory insertion and was estimated to be
about 1 in 79,000, or about 43% of the total risk for the mission.
For Alternative 3 of the Mars 2020 mission, overall population health effects risk from
the release of plutonium dioxide is estimated to be about 1 in 790,000. For accidents
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
that may occur in the launch area, only a portion of the total population within 100 km
(62 mi) of the launch site would be potentially exposed. The total probability of a health
effect within the regional population is about 1 in 1,200,000, or about 64% of the total
risk for the overall mission. For the global population (excluding those exposed in the
launch area region) the risk would be due to the potential for accidental release
occurring from pre-Launch through Mars trajectory insertion and was estimated to be
about 1 in 2,200,000, or about 36% of the total risk for the mission.
Individual Risks (Maximum Individual Risks)
Those individuals within the population that might receive the highest radiation
exposures, such as those very close to the launch area, would face very small risks.
The risk to the maximally exposed individual within the regional population is estimated
to be less than one in several million for alternatives 1 and 3 for the Mars 2020 mission.
Most people in the potentially exposed population would have much lower risks.
These risk estimates are small compared to other risks. Annual fatality statistics indicate
that in the year 2010 the average individual risk of accidental death in the United States
was about 1 in 2,600 per year, while the average individual risk of death due to any
disease, including cancer, was about 1 in 130 (see Section 4.1.4.7 of this FEIS for
additional details).
2.6.3 Summary Comparison of the Alternatives
Table 2-13 presents a summary comparison of the Proposed Action (Alternative 1),
Alternative 2, Alternative 3, and the No Action Alternative in terms of each alternative’s
capabilities for operating and conducting science on the surface of Mars, the anticipated
environmental impacts of normal implementation (i.e., a successful launch to Mars) of
each alternative, and the potential environmental impacts in the event of an launch
accident for each alternative.
In terms of operational capabilities, the major difference between the Proposed Action
(Alternative 1), Alternative 2, and Alternative 3 is the length of time the rover would be
expected to survive and successfully operate and conduct science experiments at a
selected landing site. The capability to operate the rover within a broad range of
latitudes is important because doing so maintains NASA’s flexibility to select the most
scientifically interesting location on the surface and fulfill the purpose and need for the
Mars 2020 mission as discussed in Chapter 1 of this FEIS. The No Action Alternative
would not fulfill the purpose and need for the Mars 2020 mission.
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
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2. Description and Comparison of Alternatives
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3. Description of the Affected Environment
3-1
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Lagoon collectively make up the Indian River Lagoon system. The land and lagoon
areas encompass approximately 139,400 acres (564.1 square kilometers, 217.8 square
miles) (NASA 2010). The CCAFS and KSC area are illustrated in Figure 3-1.
3-2
3. Description of the Affected Environment
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
3-4
3. Description of the Affected Environment
a. Not to be exceeded more than once per year. b. Final rule signed October 15, 2008. c. Annual mean. d. 98th percentile averaged over 3
years. e. Annual 4th highest daily maximum 8-hour concentration averaged over 3 years. f. Not to be exceeded more than once per year on
average over 3 years. g. Annual mean averaged over 3 years. h. 99th percentile of 1-hour daily maximum concentrations averaged over 3
years. i. EPA revoked the 1-hour ozone standard in all areas, although some areas have continuing obligations under that standard (“anti-
backsliding”); the standard is attained when the expected number of days per calendar year with maximum hourly average concentrations
above 0.12 ppm is <1. j. The 3-year average of 99th percentile of daily maximum 1-hour average must not exceed 75 ppb.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
3-6
3. Description of the Affected Environment
Merritt Island is substantially older than the east and erosion has reduced the western
side to a nearly level plain (NASA 2010).
3.1.4.3. Seismology
Seismological investigations of the Cape Canaveral area include refraction surveys and
well logs. Investigations, conducted by the Seismological Branch of the U.S. Coast and
Geodetic Survey, showed that the Cape Canaveral underground structure is normal and
free of voids or anomalies. The Florida Platform exhibits high seismologic stability with
very few confirmed earthquakes (NASA 2010).
3.1.5 Water Quality
3.1.5.1. Surface Water Classification
The major water bodies surrounding KSC and CCAFS include the Atlantic Ocean and
the inland estuary consisting of the Indian River, the Banana River, and the Mosquito
Lagoon. The inland estuary has been designated as an Estuary of National
Significance, and contains Outstanding Florida Waters (OFW) and Aquatic Preserves.
Freshwater inputs to the estuary include direct precipitation, storm water runoff,
discharges from impoundments, and groundwater seepage (NASA 2010).
Surface drainage within CCAFS launch areas is generally westward toward the Banana
River. CCAFS/KSC launch areas do not lie within the 100-year floodplain and are not
within a wetland (USAF 2002). LC-39A is also outside the 500-year floodplain (KSC
2014). There are no National or state-designated wild or scenic rivers on or near KSC or
CCAFS (NPS 2005, FS 258.501).
3.1.5.2. Surface Water Quality
Surface water quality at CCAFS/KSC is considered to be generally good. Historically,
the best areas of water quality are adjacent to the undeveloped areas of the lagoon,
such as the north Banana River, Mosquito Lagoon, and the northernmost portion of the
Indian River. However, since 2011, the overall water quality of the waters surrounding
KSC has been markedly impacted. The likely cause for these impacts is related to the
presence of two large and persistent algal blooms in the area. The first bloom occurred
from early spring through late fall of 2011. This bloom covered a large portion of the
northern Indian River Lagoon basin, mainly the Indian River lagoon proper and Banana
River, and included the waters surrounding KSC. The second large bloom occurred
during the summer of 2012. Unlike the bloom of 2011, which began in the Banana River
Lagoon before spreading to the northern Indian River Lagoon and Mosquito Lagoon, the
2012 bloom started in the southern Mosquito Lagoon in July, then spread into the
northern Indian River Lagoon. These blooms decreased water clarity and overall quality,
which negatively impacted seagrass growth and distribution. The marked decline of
seagrass (approximately 90%) during this bloom has been documented for much of the
central Indian River and the majority of the Banana River, including the KSC long-term
monitoring sites and the St John’s River Water Management District long-term seagrass
sites (KSC 2014).
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
3-8
3. Description of the Affected Environment
Office for review via the Intergovernmental Coordination and Review Process (NASA
2010).
3.1.6 Biological and Natural Resources
Biological resources include native and introduced plants and animals within an area
potentially affected by the proposed activity. These are divided into vegetation, wildlife,
threatened or endangered species, and sensitive habitats. Sensitive habitats include,
but are not limited to, wetlands, plant communities that are unusual or of limited
distribution, and important seasonal use areas for wildlife. They also include critical
habitat as protected by the Endangered Species Act and sensitive ecological areas as
designated by state or federal rulings.
Because CCAFS and KSC are located near the coastline, the Marine Mammal
Protection Act (MMPA) applies. The MMPA prohibits, with certain exceptions, the “take”
of marine mammals in U.S. waters and by U.S. citizens on the high seas, and
importation of marine mammals and marine mammal products into the United States.
The term “take” means to harass, hunt, capture, or kill, or attempt to harass, hunt,
capture, or kill any marine mammal (NASA 2011).
CCAFS and KSC occupy a combined total of about 62,753 hectares (ha) (155,066 ac)
of coastal habitat on a barrier island complex that parallels Florida’s mid-Atlantic coast.
The area of interest for biological resources consists of CCAFS and KSC, the adjacent
Atlantic Ocean, and three major inland water bodies, including the Banana and Indian
Rivers and Mosquito Lagoon. The region has several terrestrial and aquatic
conservation and special designation areas (e.g., wildlife management areas and
aquatic preserves). These areas serve as wildlife habitat and occupy about 25 percent
(about 405,000 ha (1,000,000 ac)) of the total land and water area within the region.
3.1.6.1. Vegetation, Wetland, and Wildlife Resources
At CCAFS/KSC, coastal scrub and associated woodlands provide habitat for mammals,
including the white-tailed deer, armadillo, bobcat, feral hog, raccoon, long-tailed weasel,
round-tailed muskrat, and the Florida mouse (a state species of special concern).
Resident and migrating bird species include numerous common land and shore birds.
The most common types of wetlands and open water areas at CCAFS/KSC are
mangrove wetlands, salt marshes, freshwater wetlands, brackish water impoundments,
borrow pits, and drainage canal systems (USAF 2008).
Amphibians observed at CCAFS and KSC include the spade-foot and eastern narrow-
mouth toads, squirrel and southern leopard frogs, and green tree frogs. Reptiles
observed include the American alligator, the Florida box turtle, the gopher tortoise, the
Florida softshell turtle, the green anole lizard, the six-lined racerunner lizard, the
broadhead skink lizard, the southern ringneck snake, the everglades racer snake, the
eastern coachwhip snake, and the mangrove salt marsh snake (NASA 2011).
3.1.6.2. Aquatic Resources
The aquatic environment surrounding CCAFS and KSC provides diverse fish habitat,
which supports many shore bird species, and sport, commercial, and recreational
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
fishing. The Atlantic beaches at CCAFS, KSC, and the CNS are important to nesting
sea turtles. The Mosquito Lagoon is considered one of the best oyster and clam
harvesting areas on the east coast.
Marine mammals populate the coastal and lagoon waters, including the bottlenose
dolphin, the spotted dolphin, and the manatee. The seagrass beds in the northern
Indian River system provide important nursery areas, shelter, and foraging habitat for a
wide variety of fish, invertebrates, and manatees. The inland rivers and lagoons provide
habitat for marine worms, mollusks, and crustaceans. The Mosquito Lagoon is an
important shrimp nursery area.
A number of saltwater fish species can be found within the Indian and Banana River
systems, including the bay anchovy, pipefish, goby, silver perch, lined sole, spotted sea
trout, and oyster toadfish. The small freshwater habitats found on CCAFS and KSC
contain bluegill, garfish, largemouth bass, killifishes, sailfin molly, and top minnow
(USAF 1998).
The Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act of 1976, as
amended, mandates the conservation of essential fish habitat (EFH). Ocean waters off
KSC have several areas designated as EFH that are of particular importance to sharks
and other game fish, as well as several species of lobsters, shrimp, and crabs. These
habitats include sandy shoals of capes and offshore bars, high profile rocky bottom and
barrier island ocean-side waters from the surf to the shelf break zone, and the Gulf
Stream shoreward, including areas containing Sargassum plant species. In addition, the
northern boundary of Oculina Bank, a unique strip of coral reefs not duplicated
elsewhere on Earth, is located approximately 37 km (23 mi) off of Cape Canaveral. The
entire reef is 145 km (90 mi) long. There are restrictions on many types of fishing in
most of the area; fishing for snapper and grouper species is prohibited in part of the
area (KSC 2014).
Regional Fishery Management Officials (FMOs) are responsible for designating EFH in
their management plans for all managed species within the Exclusive Economic Zone
(EEZ), which is a managed fisheries area that extends from the shoreline to 200 miles
offshore along the coastline of U.S. waters. For the marine area surrounding CCAFS
and PAFB, the South Atlantic Fishery Management Council (SAFMC) is the managing
body. The SAFMC currently manages several types of organisms in the vicinity of Cape
Canaveral and PAFB: the South Atlantic Snapper-Grouper complex, South Atlantic
shrimps, Coastal Migratory Pelagic species, Highly Migratory species, Red Drum, Spiny
Lobster, Golden Crab, Calico Scallop, and Sargassum. The National Marine Fisheries
Service (NMFS) defines EFH for highly migratory species under its jurisdiction. Habitat
Areas of Particular Concern (HAPCs) have also been designated within EFH areas;
these are localized areas that are vulnerable to degradation or are especially important
ecologically. HAPCs are located within the estuary systems of PAFB and CCAFS for
penaid shrimp. The Oculina Bank near Cape Canaveral also serves as a HAPC for
nursery habitat and refuge for rock shrimp (USAF 2008).
The USAF has a programmatic consultation in place with the NMFS on EFH regarding
Atlas V and Delta IV launches from CCAFS (USAF 2000). Similar consultations for
3-10
3. Description of the Affected Environment
Plants
a
Beach-star Remirea maritima – E
a
Coastal mock vervain Glandulareia maritima – E
a
Curtiss' milkweed Asclepias curtissii – E
a
Florida lantana Lantana depressa var. floridana – E
a
Hand fern Ophioglossum palmatum – E
a
Scaevola Inkberry Scaevola plumieri – T
a
Nakedwood, Simpson’s Stopper Myrcianthes fragrans – T
a
Nodding pinweed Lechea cernua – T
a
Sand dune spurge Chamaesyce cumulicola – E
a
Satin-leaf Chrysophyllum oliviforme – E
a
Sea lavender Argusia gnaphalodes – E
a
Shell mound prickly-pear cactus Opuntia stricta – T
Reptiles and Amphibians
American alligator Alligator mississippiensis T(S/A) T(S/A)
*
Atlantic (Kemp’s) Ridley sea turtle Lepidochelys kempi E E
Atlantic green turtle Chelonia mydas E E
b
Atlantic saltmarsh snake Nerodia clarkia taeniata T
Eastern indigo snake Drymarchon corais couperi T T
Florida gopher frog Lithobates capito aesopus – SSC
Florida pine snake Pituophis melanoleucus mugitus – SSC
Gopher tortoise Gopherus polyphemus C T
*
Hawksbill sea turtle Eretmochelys imbricata E E
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Federal State
Common Name Scientific Name Status Status
Leatherback sea turtle Dermochelys coriacea E E
Atlantic loggerhead sea turtle Caretta caretta T T
a
Alligator Snapping Turtle Macrochelys temminckii SSC
Birds
a
American oystercatcher Haematopus palliatus – SSC
Black skimmer Rynchops niger – SSC
Brown pelican Pelecanus occidentalis – SSC
Florida scrub jay Aphelocoma coerulescens T T
Least tern Sterna antillarum – T
Little blue heron Egretta caerulea – SSC
Piping plover Charadrius melodus T T
Reddish egret Egretta rufescens – SSC
Roseate spoonbill Ajaia ajaja – SSC
a
Roseate tern Sterna dougallii dougallii T T
Snowy egret Egretta thula – SSC
Southeastern American kestrel Falco sparverius paulus – T
Tricolored heron Egretta tricolor – SSC
White ibis Eudocimus albus – SSC
Wood stork Mycteria americana E E
a
Audubon’s Crested Caracara Poyborus plancus audubonii T
a
Snowy Plover Charadrius alexandrinus T
b
Bald Eagle Haliaeetus leucocephalus P
Mammals
Florida mouse Podomys floridanus – SSC
Northern right whale* Eubalaena glacialis E E
Southeastern beach mouse Peromyscus polionotus niveiventris T T
West Indian manatee Trichechus manatus latirostris E E
Fish
Smalltooth Sawfish* Pristis pectinata E E
Sources: NASA 2010; USAF 2007, Dankert 2014a
3-12
3. Description of the Affected Environment
Legally designated critical habitat for the northern right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) is
located along the CCAFS/KSC coast and extends east for 9.3 km (5.8 mi); right whales
are occasionally observed between December and March (KSC 2014).
Threatened or endangered species that inhabit the scrubby flatwoods of Merritt Island
include the Florida scrub jay and the eastern indigo snake. The southern bald eagle, a
federally protected species under the MBTA, the Bald and Golden Eagle Protection Act,
and the Lacey Act, is also known to occur in this area (KSC 2014).
The Indian River Lagoon area (Indian River, Banana River, and Mosquito Lagoon) is
home to more than 5,300 kinds of plants and animals. The lagoon has a gradation of
brackish water to salt water where it opens to the ocean. It is listed as an Estuary of
National Significance and contains more species than any other estuary in North
America (2,965 animals, 1,350 plants, 700 fish, and 310 birds). It also provides
important migratory bird habitat. The lagoon contains one of the highest densities of
nesting turtles in the western hemisphere, is a rich fishery, and is used by up to one
third of the United States’ manatee population (USAF 1998).
The Atlantic beaches are important to nesting sea turtles. Disorientation of marine
turtles related to lighting from nighttime space operations has occurred at CCAFS and
KSC in the past; however, CCAFS and KSC both have a light management plan that
addresses mitigation of impacts to nesting sea turtles during nighttime launches (USAF
2001, KSC 2014).
3.1.7 Socioeconomics and Children’s Environmental Health and Safety
The surrounding counties of CCAFS and KSC include Brevard County, Flagler County,
Indian River County, Lake County, Orange County, Osceola County, Polk Seminole
County, and Volusia County. The socioeconomic resources in this region include the
population, economy, transportation system, public and emergency services, and
recreational opportunities. Under EO 13045, Protection of Children from Environmental
Health Risks and Safety Risks, dated April 21, 1997, federal agencies are encouraged
to consider potential impacts of proposed actions on the safety or environmental health
of children. Socioeconomic resources and EO 13045 are discussed below.
3.1.7.1. Population
The census population in 2010 and projected populations for 2012 and 2020 for the
nine-county region are presented in Table 3-3 (USBC 2013a). The city of Cape
Canaveral, the nearest community to CCAFS and KSC, has a population of roughly
9,912 (2010), and is located on the south side of Port Canaveral. Titusville with 43,761
(2010) residents and Merritt Island with 34,763 (2010) residents are located to the west
of CCAFS and KSC. In addition, Palm Bay and the Melbourne area, which are
communities to the south of CCAFS, have populations of between 80,000 and 100,000
(USBC 2013a).
People belonging to the following population groups reside within this region: white,
black or African American, American Indian, Alaska native, Asian, native Hawaiian and
other Pacific Islander, some other race, two or more races, and Hispanic or Latino (of
any race) (USBC 2013c).
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Table 3-3 presents the total population in 2010 and the projected total populations for
2012 and 2020 for each of the counties in the nine-county region. Table 3-4 presents
the minority population in 2010 and the projected minority population for 2020 for the
respective counties.
Table 3-3. Population of the Nine-County Region
Census Population Projected Population Projected Population 2020
Geographic Area 2010 2012
Florida 18,801,310 19,317,568 21,528,304
County
Brevard 543,376 547,307 563,317
Flagler 95,696 98,359 109,773
Indian River 138,028 140,567 151,199
Lake 297,052 303,186 329,015
Orange 1,145,956 1,202,234 1,456,375
Osceola 268,685 287,416 376,341
Polk 602,095 616,158 675,772
Seminole 422,718 430,838 464,908
Volusia 494,593 496,950 506,491
Nine-County Region 4,008,119 4,123,015 4,633,191
Source: Adapted from USBC 2013a, c
Note: Projected population values do not represent absolute limits to growth. For any county, the future population may be above or below
the projected value.
Note: Projected population values do not represent absolute limits to growth. For any county, the future population may be above or below
the projected value.
According to the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ 1997), people whose incomes
are less than the poverty threshold are defined as low-income. Data from Census 2010
(USBC 2013a) shows that 13.7 percent of the population living within the nine counties
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3. Description of the Affected Environment
reported incomes below the poverty threshold; this percentage is lower than those
reported by Florida (14.7 percent) and the United States (14.3 percent).
3.1.7.2. Economy
An estimated 1,858,000 people were employed in the nine-county region in 2012 with
an estimated unemployment rate of 8.8 percent (BEBR 2014).
The region's economic base is tourism and manufacturing, with tourism attracting more
than 20 million visitors annually. Multiple theme parks, along with KSC, are among the
most popular tourist attractions in the state. In 2010, 1.5 million out-of-state tourists
visited the KSC Visitor Complex (NASA 2010c). In addition, the cruise and cargo
industries at Port Canaveral contribute to the central Florida economy.
Industrial sectors in the region that provided significant employment in 2000 included:
education, health and social services; arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation
and food services; retail trade; and professional, scientific, management, administrative,
and waste management services (USBC 2000c).
The employment pool at CCAFS includes about 10,000 military and civilian personnel,
all associated with the USAF (USAF 2013). Military personnel are attached to the
45th Space Wing at PAFB, which is approximately 32 km (20 mi) south of CCAFS. A
majority of the employed are contractor personnel from companies associated with
missile testing and launch vehicle operations.
In FY 2012, of the $17.8 billion NASA budget, $1.3 billion in wages and purchases
within the state of Florida were made by KSC and other NASA centers. For every dollar
spent directly by NASA, about an additional dollar was added to the Florida economy,
resulting in a total economic impact of $2.15 billion for the state. In addition to the jobs
directly associated with KSC (2,100 government workers and 4,900 contractor
employees) an additional 16,500 jobs are supported. While the overall NASA impact
was significantly lower in FY 2012 from its FY 2009 peak, KSC remains the major
economic driver in Brevard County (NASA 2012). The gross state product of the overall
economic activity of Florida for 2012 is estimated to be over $777 billion (BEA 2013).
3.1.7.3. Transportation Systems
The nine-county region is supported by a network of federal, state, and county roads;
rail service; three major airports; and a seaport with cargo and cruise terminals
(USAF 2002). CCAFS has a runway for government aircraft, delivery of launch vehicle
components, and airfreight associated with the operation of CCAFS launch complexes.
3.1.7.4. Public and Emergency Services
Emergency medical services for CCAFS and KSC personnel are provided at the
Occupational Health Facility and Emergency Aid Clinic at KSC. These facilities are
staffed by medical personnel specially trained in the treatment of hazards associated
with the facilities and operations at CCAFS and KSC. A Memorandum of Understanding
for emergency treatment has been established with a network of hospitals in the region
(NASA 2010).
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
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3. Description of the Affected Environment
traditional cultural properties, sacred sites, monuments and memorials, or any other
physical evidence of human activity considered important to a culture or community for
scientific, traditional, religious, or any other reasons.
Eighty-eight archaeological sites have been identified on CCAFS and 24 have been
determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) but
have not been listed. There are numerous historic properties on CCAFS (over 100)
including seven cemeteries/grave sites. In addition, there are six CCAFS contributing
facilities listed as National Historic Landmarks (NHLs). Four are launch complexes and
two are NASA property (LC-5/6 and part of LC-19) and, therefore, are not under the
jurisdiction of CCAFS.
At CCAFS, a number of launch pads are listed on the NRHP and form a National
Historic Landmark District. No NRHP-listed or eligible prehistoric or historic
archaeological sites have been identified at either SLC-37 or SLC-41. However, the
north and south area of SLC-41 is considered a “high” zone of archeological potential
(Dankert 2014b).
In 1973, LC-39 became the first NASA site at KSC to be listed in the NRHP. The
nomination highlighted the national significance of those principal facilities associated
with the Apollo Manned Lunar Landing Program. LC-39, built between November 1962
and October 1968, was evaluated as significant in the areas of architecture,
communications, engineering, industry, science, transportation, and space exploration
(NASA 2010).
As of January 2014, a total of 103 historic properties have been identified within KSC,
including 8 historic districts, 32 individually listed or eligible properties, and 69 resources
that are contributing to a historic district, but not individually eligible (Dankert 2014b).
3.1.9 Hazardous Materials and Hazardous Wastes
3.1.9.1. Hazardous Materials Management
Numerous types of hazardous materials are used to support the missions and general
maintenance operations at CCAFS and KSC. Management of hazardous materials,
excluding hazardous fuels, is the responsibility of each individual or organization. Each
organization has a supply organization and uses a “pharmacy” control approach to track
hazardous materials and to minimize hazardous waste generation, thereby minimizing
the use of hazardous materials. The PAFB supply system is the primary method of
purchasing or obtaining hazardous materials. Resource Conservation and Recovery Act
(RCRA) requirements are accomplished by the directives listed in the respective permits
issued to KSC/CCAFS as per 45th SW Operation Plan (OPLAN) 32-3 and Kennedy
NASA Procedural Requirement (KNPR 8500.1) (NASA 2010). Liquid propellants would
be stored in tanks near the launch pad within appropriate cement containment basins
and would be managed by a Launch Service Provider.
3.1.9.2. Hazardous Waste Management at CCAFS
Typical hazardous wastes at CCAFS include various solvents, paints and primers,
sealants, photograph-developing solutions, adhesives, alcohol, oils, fuels, and various
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
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3. Description of the Affected Environment
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
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3. Description of the Affected Environment
KSC is committed to ensuring that the goals of Environmental Justice Strategy are met.
Moreover, KSC will continue to communicate with and seek the input of local
communities through public meetings, material distributions, information repositories,
community events, open houses, press releases and public education campaigns. To
ensure that members of the community are well informed of potential adverse
environmental impacts from KSC activities, a mailing list with the names of local
officials, community leaders, public interest groups, interested individuals, media, and
community organizations was compiled. The mailing list is updated as changes are
reported (NASA 2010).
3.1.11 Aesthetics
NASA considers the extent to which any lighting or other visual impacts associated with
an action would create an annoyance among people in the vicinity or interfere with their
normal activities. Visual and aesthetic resources refer to natural or developed
landscapes that provide information for an individual to develop their perceptions of the
area. Areas such as coastlines, national parks, and recreation or wilderness areas are
usually considered to have high visual sensitivity. Heavily industrialized urban areas
tend to be the areas of the lowest visual sensitivity. The existing conditions at KSC are
characterized as having low visual sensitivity, because the site is currently an
industrialized area that supports rocket launches. Notable visual structures include the
lightning protection towers at LC-39B. Due to the flat topography and height of the
lightning towers (approximately 161 m (528 ft)), the lightning protection towers can be
seen several miles away. Existing light sources at KSC include nighttime security
lighting at the launch complexes and buildings. NASA has guidelines to address the
light impacts to wildlife species under the KSC Light Management Plan (NASA 2002,
KSC 2014).
3.2 THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
In accordance with Executive Order 12114, Environmental Effects Abroad of Major
Federal Actions, this section provides a general overview of the global environment.
Basic descriptions of the troposphere and stratosphere, global population distribution
and density, distribution of land surface types, and a brief discussion of background
radiation and the global atmospheric inventory of plutonium are included.
3.2.1 Troposphere
The troposphere is the atmospheric layer closest to the Earth's surface where all life
exists and virtually all weather occurs. It extends from the Earth’s surface to a height of
about 6 to 10 km (20,000 to 33,000 ft) (the lower boundary of the stratosphere). The
atmosphere above 900 m (3,000 ft) includes the free troposphere ranging from 900 m
(3,000 ft) to between 2 and 10 km (6,600 to 33,000 ft) in altitude and the stratosphere
extending from 10 km (33,000 ft) to 50 km (164,000 ft). These boundaries should be
taken as approximate annual mean values as the actual level of the boundary between
the troposphere and stratosphere (tropopause) is variable on a seasonal and day-to-day
basis (NASA 2011).
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
In general, the troposphere is well mixed and aerosols are removed in a short period of
time (ranging from a few days to a few weeks) as a result of both the mixing within this
layer and scavenging by precipitation. Removal of most emissions from rocket exhaust
products from the troposphere occurs over a period of less than one week, thereby
preventing a buildup of these products on a global level (USAF 1998).
The upper (free) troposphere is characterized by vigorous mixing driven by convective
upwelling, horizontal and vertical winds, as well as transport and washout of gases that
have been introduced into this region by industrial sources. This layer does not contain
any uniquely important atmospheric constituents and it does not generally influence air
quality in the lower troposphere (i.e., atmospheric boundary layer (ABL)). The air
temperature of the ABL decreases with increasing altitude until it reaches the inversion
layer where the temperature increases with increasing altitude. The ABL is considered
the most important boundary layer with respect to the emission, transport, and
dispersion of airborne pollutants. The part of the ABL between Earth’s surface and the
bottom of the inversion layer is known as the mixing layer. Almost all of the airborne
pollutants emitted into the ambient atmosphere are transported and dispersed within the
mixing layer. Some of the emissions penetrate the inversion layer and enter the free
troposphere above the ABL.
Concentrations of gases and particles emitted into the free troposphere by transient
sources, such as launch vehicles, are quickly diluted to very low levels before they can
be deposited onto or transported near the ground by precipitation or strong down-
welling events (NASA 2011).
3.2.2 Stratosphere
The stratosphere extends from the tropopause up to an altitude of approximately 50 km
(31 mi or 164,000 ft). In general, vertical mixing is limited within the stratosphere,
providing little transport between the layers above (mesosphere) and below
(troposphere). The lack of vertical mixing and exchange between these layers provides
for extremely long residence times, on the order of months, causing the stratosphere to
act as a reservoir for certain types of atmospheric pollution (USAF 1998).
The stratospheric ozone absorbs most of the most harmful ultraviolet (UV-B) radiation
from the sun. Depletion of ozone following the introduction of man-made materials can
result in an increase in solar UV radiation on the ground, which can pose a serious
ecological and health hazard. The importance and global nature of the ozone layer
requires a careful consideration of all sources of disturbance (NASA 2011).
Solid and liquid rocket propulsion systems emit a variety of gases and particles directly
into the stratosphere (WMO 1991). A large fraction of these emissions, carbon dioxide
(CO2) for example, is chemically inert and does not affect ozone levels directly. Other
emissions, such as hydrogen chloride (HCl) and water, are not highly reactive, but have
an impact on ozone since these gases participate in chemical reactions that help
determine the concentrations of the ozone-destroying radical gases. A small fraction of
rocket engine emissions are highly reactive radicals. Particulate emissions, such as
aluminum oxide powder and carbon (soot), may mimic or enhance the role of natural
stratospheric particles by enabling or enhancing ozone-related chemical reactions.
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3. Description of the Affected Environment
Greenhouse gases absorb the radiant energy from the Sun and Earth. Some of the
greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and water) are emitted
during the processes of preparing for and launching spacecraft. Other gases (e.g., NOx
and VOCs) emitted from these processes contribute indirectly by forming ozone and
other reactive species that photochemically react with greenhouse gases and control
the radiation’s penetration to the troposphere. Greenhouse gases are thought to
potentially have a negative effect on the ozone protective layer of the atmosphere.
Research on greenhouse gas production (and possible effects of certain related
pollutants, such as pollutants contributing to global warming) is ongoing by the EPA and
some states.
The Montreal Protocol is designed to protect the stratospheric ozone layer by phasing
out production and consumption of substances that deplete the ozone layer.
Measurements have shown that atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting
substances are decreasing, indicating that emissions have been greatly reduced
(EPA 2003).
3.2.3 Orbital and Re-entry Debris
Space debris can be classified as either natural or man-made objects. The measured
amount of man-made debris equals or exceeds that of natural meteoroids at most low-
Earth orbit altitudes (i.e., below 2,000 km (1,200 mi)). Man-made debris consists of
material left in Earth orbit from the launch, deployment, deactivation, and fragmentation
of spacecraft and launch vehicle components. It exists at all inclinations and has the
greatest density at Low Earth Orbit altitudes of approximately 800 to 1,000 km (500 to
625 mi) (UN 1999). Orbital debris moves in many different orbits and directions, at
velocities ranging from 3 to over 8 km/s (1.9 to over 5 mi/s) relative to Earth (NASA-
HDBK 8719.14).
Reentry debris would include non-recoverable items from launch activities such as
jettisoned vehicle stages and solid rocket boosters. Impacts from launch activities are
typically planned to occur in broad ocean areas cleared of shipping or air traffic. Range
Safety is responsible for efforts to reduce the risk to shipping lanes and ensure vessel
activity would be outside the launch and reentry zone (KSC 2014).
There are four statutes relating to marine debris: 1) the Marine Plastic Pollution
Research and Control Act; 2) the Marine Debris Research, Prevention, and Reduction
Act (MDRPRA); 3) the Shore Protection Act; and 4) the Marine Protection, Research,
and Sanctuaries Act, which regulates the ocean disposal of hazardous waste. The most
applicable law governing reentry boosters is the MDRPRA. This Act tasks NOAA and
the U.S. Coast Guard to assess, reduce, and prevent marine debris and its adverse
impacts on the marine environment and navigation safety (KSC 2014).
Space programs managed by U.S. Government organizations are directed to follow the
U.S. Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices. Commercial operations
are addressed in regulations by the Department of Transportation, the Department of
Commerce, and the Federal Communications Commission.
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3. Description of the Affected Environment
The total land fraction was further subdivided by the fraction consisting of soil or rock
cover. For the most densely populated bands (bands 4 through 8), the land fraction
varies from about 25 percent in band 8 to about 45 percent in band 4, and is
predominately soil (from about 75 percent in band 4 to about 92 percent in bands 7 and
8).
3.2.6 Background Radiation
3.2.6.1. Natural and Manmade Sources
The general population is exposed to various sources of natural and human-made
radiation. These sources are divided into six broad categories: (1) cosmic radiation
(from space), (2) external terrestrial radiation or groundshine (from naturally occurring
radiation in rocks and soil), (3) internal radiation (from inhalation or ingestion),
(4) consumer products (from smoke detectors, airport x-ray machines, televisions),
(5) medical diagnosis and therapy (e.g., diagnostic x-rays, nuclear medical procedures),
and (6) other sources (e.g., nuclear power plants, transportation).
Dose is the amount of ionizing radiation energy deposited in body tissues via various
exposure pathways and is expressed in units of measurement called rem, (Roentgen
equivalent in man). An average person in the United States receives a total dose of
about 0.31 rem per year from all natural sources (see Table 3-6).
The average dose from man-made sources is also about 0.31 rem. Exposure to radon,
the largest component of natural background radiation, accounts for about 74 percent or
0.23 rem of the yearly total natural dose received. Exposure to cosmic and terrestrial
radiation collectively is about 16 percent of the yearly total natural dose. The dominant
contributor to the man-made dose is from medical uses, nuclear medicine, and medical
procedures. The dose from these two sources has increased dramatically in recent
years with the increase in the use of technologies such as computed tomography
(commonly referred to as CT scans). A single CT scan can result in a dose of anywhere
between 0.1 and 2 rem. For perspective, a simple chest x-ray results in a dose of about
0.002 rem, and about 0.065 rem is received from a diagnostic pelvic and hip x-ray. Not
everyone is subject to exposure and subsequent dose from the medical sources; the
dominant contributor to man-made background doses. There is a wide disparity in the
background dose to people who receive medical doses and those that don’t.
Due to its low elevation, Florida receives less exposure to cosmic radiation than most
parts of the country (HPS 2014). Assessments performed by the U.S. Geological
Survey and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency indicate that KSC, CCAFS, and
adjacent communities have a low potential for geologic radon (USGS 1995). In other
categories of background radiation exposure, Florida is consistent with the national
average.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
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3. Description of the Affected Environment
(approximately 4,000 Ci) of that 1964 release was deposited in the northern
hemisphere, with the remaining 75 percent settling in the southern hemisphere. In April
1986, approximately 369,000,000 Ci of various radioisotopes were released to the
environment from the Chernobyl nuclear power station accident (IAEA 2005a).
Approximately 400 Ci of the total Chernobyl release was Pu-238.
The total plutonium released to the ocean environment by overseas nuclear
reprocessing plants between 1952 and 1992 was more than 100,000 Ci (Gray et al.
1995), of which approximately 3,400 Ci was Pu-238 (Gray et al. 1995; IAEA 2005b;
OSPAR 2005), bringing the total amount of Pu-238 dispersed into the environment to
about 38,800 Ci.
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4. Environmental Consequences
4. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES
This chapter of the Mars 2020 mission Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS)
presents information on the potential environmental impacts of launching the proposed
mission. The evaluations presented in this FEIS; based on representative configurations
of Atlas V, Delta IV, and Falcon Heavy launch vehicles; were completed prior to NASA’s
selection of the launch vehicle for the Mars 2020 mission. NASA considers these
evaluations to adequately bound the potential environmental consequences of the
alternatives described in this FEIS. If new and or significant information becomes
available, NASA would evaluate the need for additional environmental analysis and
documentation.
The potential environmental impacts of launching the proposed Mars 2020 mission
would be similar in nature to those evaluated in the Mars Science Laboratory Mission
Final Environmental Impact Statement (MSL FEIS) (NASA 2006). The proposed Mars
2020 mission would be launched on a similar medium to large expendable launch
vehicle, resulting in similar normal launch and launch accident non-radiological impacts.
The Mars 2020 spacecraft for the proposed action would be essentially identical to the
MSL spacecraft and have a similar Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric
Generator (MMRTG) as a power source. Therefore, it is expected that the radiological
impacts of accidents would also be similar to those evaluated in the MSL EIS. Mars
2020 mission-specific nuclear risk analyses have been performed by the Department of
Energy (DOE) for both the MMRTG-powered alternative and the solar power
augmented with Light-Weight Radioisotope Heater Units (LWRHUs) alternative. These
analyses evaluated the impacts of launch accidents using representative configurations
of the Atlas V and Delta IV launch vehicles proposed for the Mars 2020 mission and the
results are reported in the Nuclear Risk Assessment for the Mars 2020 Mission
Environmental Impact Statement (SNL 2014).
The MMRTG hardware has already been manufactured and assembled by industry
under contract to DOE; those flight units are in bonded storage at the contractor facility.
Testing and fueling of the MMRTGs would be done by DOE at existing facilities. The
plutonium dioxide would be formed into pellets suitable for use in an MMRTG or
LWRHU at DOE’s Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) in New Mexico. The pellets
would be encapsulated in an iridium cladding at LANL. The encapsulated pellets would
then be shipped to Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in Idaho for final MMRTG assembly
and testing. The LWRHUs have already been manufactured; final assembly of the
LWRHUs occurred at LANL. DOE would then transport the MMRTG or LWRHUs to the
appropriate launch site. The impacts of these activities have been addressed in existing
DOE environmental documentation (DOE 1993, 2000, 2002b, 2008, 2013).
DOE’s process for preparing an MMRTG for the proposed Mars 2020 mission would be
very similar to the process they used in preparing nearly identical MMRTGs for the MSL
and Pluto New Horizons missions. The environmental impacts of preparing an MMRTG
by the DOE for the Mars 2020 mission have already been evaluated in existing DOE
NEPA documents. The plutonium that would be used for an MMRTG for the Mars 2020
mission was previously purchased from Russia and is in secure storage vaults at DOE
facilities. As stated in the terms of the purchase agreement with Russia, plutonium can
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
only be used for peaceful space exploration missions. The stockpiled plutonium would
be fabricated into fueled clads at the LANL. (The potential impacts of that process are
described in the LANL Site-Wide EIS (DOE 2008).) The fuel clads would then be
securely shipped to the INL for integration into MMRTG assemblies. The potential
impacts of that process have been described in the LANL Site-Wide EIS and other
specific DOE NEPA documents addressing portions of the MMRTG fabrication process
(DOE 2002b, 2008). The DOE found that the principal environmental impacts
associated with shipping the plutonium in various forms, fabricating the plutonium into
fueled clads and then fabricating the clads into an MMRTG and shipping to CCAFS are
the generation of solid radioactive wastes and potential external radiation exposure to
DOE facility radiation workers. Radioactive wastes would be generated at LANL and
INL. Most of the radioactive wastes would be in the form of plutonium-contaminated
solid wastes called transuranic (TRU) wastes. Production of an MMRTG for a potential
Mars 2020 mission would temporarily increase radioactive wastes generated annually
by LANL and INL and routinely shipped for ultimate deep geologic disposal at the DOE
Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) facility in New Mexico. The generation, handling,
transportation, and disposal of these wastes have been described and impacts
evaluated in multiple DOE NEPA documents (DOE 1993, 2000, 2002b, 2008, 2013).
Since the production of an MMRTG for the proposed Mars 2020 mission would use
similar steps, processes, and facilities as that followed for recent space missions, no
new environmental impacts would be expected.
In February 2014, two safety incidents at WIPP, a salt truck fire and an over
pressurization of a TRU waste container, resulted in the suspension of normal WIPP
operations. Pending completion of investigations and implementation of corrective
measures at WIPP and other DOE sites as needed, shipments of TRU wastes from INL,
LANL, and other DOE sites to WIPP have been temporarily suspended. The containers
have been identified and corrective measures taken to ensure that future waste
containers meet the rigid WIPP waste acceptance criteria. These safety concerns are
expected to be fully addressed and mitigated prior to the need for TRU waste shipments
from INL and LANL in support of the proposed Mars 2020 MMRTG production. In
addition, adequate TRU waste interim storage capabilities exist at both INL and LANL
such that near-term operations that would support Mars 2020 operations would not be
impacted.
The discussion of the environmental impacts associated with Alternatives 1, 2, and 3
are separated into four categories of impacts:
Environmental impacts associated with preparation for launch,
Environmental impacts associated with a normal (successful) launch,
Non-radiological impacts associated with launch accidents, and
Radiological impacts associated with launch accidents.
The impacts associated with the first two categories would occur with every launch. The
impacts from the second two would be seen only if there were to be a failure of the
launch vehicle that results in an accident either with or without the release of radioactive
material. For the three alternatives, the environmental impacts associated with
preparation for a launch, a normal launch, and the non-radiological impacts of a launch
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4. Environmental Consequences
accident would be the same for that launch system with or without radiological materials
on a rover. These impacts are discussed in Section 4.1 for the Proposed Action,
Alternative 1, Section 4.2, Environmental Impacts of Alternative 2, and Section 4.3,
Environmental Impacts of Alternative 3.
4.1 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF THE PROPOSED ACTION
(ALTERNATIVE 1)
Under Alternative 1, NASA proposes to continue preparations for and to implement the
Mars 2020 mission. The proposed Mars 2020 mission would include an autonomous
rover that would perform science operations on the surface of Mars. One MMRTG
would provide the necessary electric power to operate the Mars 2020 rover and its
science instruments. The Mars 2020 spacecraft would be launched on an Atlas V, a
Delta IV Heavy, or a Falcon Heavy launch vehicle (see Section 2.1.5) from SLC-41,
SLC-37, or LC-39A, respectively, at CCAFS/KSC.
Sections 4.1.1 and 4.1.2 present the environmental impacts of preparing for launch and
the environmental impacts resulting from a normal launch event, respectively. These
impacts were addressed in the MSL EIS (NASA 2006), the Final Environmental
Assessment for Launch of NASA Routine Payloads on Expendable Launch Vehicles
(Routine Payloads EA) (NASA 2011), the PEIS MEP (NASA 2005a), Environmental
Assessment for Falcon 9 and Falcon 9 Heavy Launch Vehicle Programs from Space
Launch Complex 4 East Vandenberg Air Force Base California (USAF 2011), and the
Final Supplemental Environmental Assessment to the November 2007 Environmental
Assessment for the Operation and Launch of the Falcon 1 and Falcon 9 Space Vehicles
At Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Florida (SpaceX 2013b). The USAF has assessed
environmental impacts of Atlas V and Delta IV launches through 2020 based upon an
annual average launch rate of 10 launches and 11 launches, respectively, from CCAFS
(USAF 2000). Launch of the Mars 2020 mission would be included in and not increase
this previously approved launch rate. Launch of a Falcon Heavy was addressed in the
Routine Payloads EA (NASA 2011) and the environmental impacts are expected to be
similar to that of an Atlas V or Delta IV launch vehicle.
The potential non-radiological environmental impacts of a launch accident are
discussed in Section 4.1.3. Section 4.1.4 addresses radiological impacts, which may
result from a launch accident.
4.1.1 Environmental Consequences of Preparing for Launch
Launch processing activities for the Mars 2020 mission would be subject to federal,
state, and local environmental laws and regulations; and USAF and NASA regulations
and requirements (see Section 4.9). All CCAFS/KSC launch sites have established
plans to implement these regulations, including hazardous materials management plans
and hazardous waste disposal plans. Responsibilities and procedures for management
of hazardous materials and hazardous wastes (HM/HW) are clearly defined in those
operating plans. Processing facilities must prepare and retain a written contingency plan
and emergency procedures for responding to emergencies involving hazardous
materials. In addition, all proposed processing facilities and launch sites have active
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
pollution prevention programs to reduce the use of hazardous materials and generation
of hazardous waste.
Spacecraft and launch vehicle processing at CCAFS or KSC would involve a number of
industrial activities that include the use of hazardous materials, and would generate
hazardous wastes, other solid and liquid wastes, and air emissions. Such hazardous
materials would include but not be limited to acetone, chromate conversion coating,
denatured alcohol, epoxy, flux, inks, lacquer, paints, propellants, oils, solvents, primers,
sealants, and other process chemicals.
NASA or its contractors would acquire the required hazardous materials for the Mars
2020 mission use and would properly dispose of any generated hazardous wastes. If
the Mars 2020 spacecraft uses an MSL heritage cooling system, it would contain about
5 liters (1.3 gallons) of trichlorofluoromethane (also known as Freon-11), a Class I ODS,
as the coolant circulated in stainless steel tubing for spacecraft thermal control. Freon-
11 would be loaded into the spacecraft via a closely monitored, closed-loop system that
would minimize the possibility of a significant portion of the substance escaping to open
atmosphere.
CCAFS, KSC, NASA, and NASA Launch Service (NLS) contractors must adhere to
established programs for pollution and spill prevention. Airborne emissions from liquid
propellant loading and off-loading of spacecraft and launch vehicles are closely
monitored using vapor detectors. Systems for loading hypergolic fuels (fuels which
ignite spontaneously when mixed with an oxidizer) also use air emission controls (USAF
1998). Liquid hypergolic fuels make up the largest proportion of hazardous materials
used in processing spacecraft and these propellants are extremely hazardous and toxic.
However, they are transported and controlled by the facility propellant contractor and
are not stored at the processing facilities. Each facility that is permitted to conduct
hypergolic propellant transfers is configured to manage hypergolic propellants and
waste products in accordance with federal, state, and local regulations (NASA 2011).
Some spacecraft and launch vehicle integration personnel would be exposed to very
low doses of radiation (substantially below regulatory limits) during pre-launch testing
and integration of the MMRTG into the Mars 2020 spacecraft. Integration and launch
processing activities involving ionizing and non-ionizing radiation at KSC and CCAFS
are subject to extensive review and authorization of all activities by the local radiation
protection authority prior to initiation of any operation. Such operations are actively
monitored by launch site radiation safety personnel to ensure adherence to approved
operating and emergency procedures and to maintain operational personnel exposures
at levels that are as low as reasonably achievable (USAF 1999, NASA 2001).
The hazardous materials used to process spacecraft and launch vehicles could
potentially generate hazardous waste. Liquid and solid waste would be generated
almost exclusively from fuel and oxidizer transfer operations. Processing of launch
vehicles would increase hazardous waste production at CCAFS/KSC launch sites by
very small percentages. The spacecraft and launch vehicle contractors would be
responsible for identifying, containing, labeling, and accumulating the hazardous wastes
in accordance with all applicable Federal, state, and local regulations. All hazardous
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4. Environmental Consequences
wastes generated from spacecraft and launch vehicle processing would be transported,
treated, stored, and disposed of by the responsible base contractor (NASA 2011).
Due to extensive HM/HW management programs and established safety programs,
processing the spacecraft and the launch vehicle for the Mars 2020 mission is not
expected to cause adverse environmental impacts.
DOE’s preparation of an MMRTG for the proposed Mars 2020 mission would be very
similar to their process in preparing the nearly identical MMRTG for the MSL mission.
The environmental impacts of preparing an MMRTG by the DOE for the Mars 2020
mission have already been evaluated in existing DOE NEPA documents (DOE 1993,
2000, 2002, 2002b, 2008, 2013).
4.1.2 Environmental Impacts of a Normal Launch
Environmental impacts of a normal launch of the Mars 2020 mission on an expendable
launch vehicle would be associated with airborne exhaust emissions from propellant
combustion, hazardous materials usage, hazardous waste generation, and wastewater
generation.
4.1.2.1. Land Use
The proposed processing and launch of spacecraft would not include any new
construction or modification of facilities or roadways that would potentially impact land
resources. Processing activities would take place within closed structures, and
precautions would be taken to prevent spills and control hazardous materials in
accordance with facility operating plans. Spills of liquid propellants would be controlled
through catchment systems and holding tanks in the processing facilities and would not
impact surrounding soils or land use resources (NASA 2011).
Processing and launch of the Mars 2020 mission on either an Atlas V, Delta IV, or
Falcon Heavy would be consistent with the designated land uses of CCAFS and KSC;
and no impacts to land use resources are anticipated (USAF 2001, NASA 2002b, NASA
2005a, NASA 2006, NASA 2011).
4.1.2.2. Air Quality
Inadvertent releases of toxic air contaminants are possible as a result of improper
handling of hazardous materials during payload processing, transportation, and launch.
During payload processing and transportation, the largest releases would result from
the spillage of the entire quantity of liquid propellants. CCAFS and KSC have safety
procedures in place to ensure that these events are not likely to occur and all spills must
be managed in accordance with existing Spill Prevention, Control, and
Countermeasures (SPCC) plans. Liquid propellants would be stored in tanks near the
launch pad and within cement containment basins designed to retain 110 percent of the
storage tank volume. Propellant spills from the launch vehicle would be channeled into
sealed concrete catchment basins and disposed of according to appropriate Federal
and state regulations. Propellant loading operations would be postponed if Range
Safety models predict that a potential propellant spill would result in a toxic hazard to
the public or unprotected personnel (NASA 2011).
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
ODSs may be used in fully self-contained spacecraft cooling systems. Any ODS use
would be accomplished in accordance with Federal, state, and local laws regulating
ODS use, reuse, storage, and disposal. Release of materials other than propulsion
system exhaust would be limited to inert gases. Preparation of rocket vehicles would not
result in a release of ODSs into the atmosphere (NASA 2011).
Rocket launches can cause short-term impacts on local air quality from routine launch
vehicle exhaust emissions. After ignition of the first stage and the first few seconds of
liftoff through launch vehicle ascent, the exhaust emissions would form a buoyant cloud
at the launch pad. This high-temperature cloud would rise quickly and stabilize at an
altitude of several hundred meters near the launch area. The cloud would then dissipate
through mixing with the atmosphere. The exhaust products would be distributed along
the launch vehicle's trajectory as the vehicle moves through the atmosphere. Airborne
emissions from a normal launch of the Mars 2020 mission at CCAFS/KSC would not be
expected to result in adverse impacts to the public (USAF 1998, USAF 2000, NASA
2005a, NASA 2006, NASA 2011). The nearest residential areas to SLC-37, LC-39A, or
SLC-41 are about 10 to 20 kilometers (km) (6 to 12 miles) in the cities of Merritt Island
to the southwest, Cape Canaveral and Cocoa Beach to the south, and Titusville to the
west.
First-stage liquid propellant engines that use rocket propellant-1 (RP-1) and liquid
oxygen (LOX), such as the Atlas V and Falcon Heavy, would primarily produce carbon
monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), and water vapor as combustion products. First-
stage liquid propellant engines that use liquid hydrogen (LH2) and LOX, such as the
Delta IV, would produce water vapor. Solid propellant, consisting of ammonium
perchlorate, aluminum powder, and hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene (HTPB) binder in
the solid rocket boosters (SRBs) of the Atlas V, would primarily produce aluminum oxide
(Al2O3) particulates, CO, hydrogen chloride (HCl), and nitrogen (N2). Under the high
temperatures of the SRB’s exhaust, the CO would be quickly oxidized to CO2, and the
N2 may react with ambient oxygen to form nitrogen oxides (NOX). Most of these
emissions would be removed from the atmosphere over a period of less than one week,
yielding no long-term accumulation of these products (USAF 1998).
No short- or long-term air quality impacts are expected as a result of the handling and
usage of liquid propellants and ODSs during a normal launch. Previous analyses have
shown that emissions from a normal launch of an Atlas V with SRBs would not create
short- or long-term adverse impacts to air quality in the region (USAF 2000, NASA
2005a, NASA 2011). The same result would be expected from the launch of a Delta IV
Heavy or Falcon Heavy rocket. Section 4.1.2.14 discusses local as well as global ozone
impacts.
4.1.2.3. Noise
Noise impacts may be considered substantial if (1) the proposed action substantially
increases the ambient noise level for adjoining areas, and (2) the increased ambient
noise affects the use of the adjoining areas. NASA, the FAA, and USAF carefully
consider the potential impacts from noise, (including sonic boom) on workers and the
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4. Environmental Consequences
13
For comparison, a typical household vacuum cleaner generates about 70 dBA at a distance of 3 m
(10 ft); the sound level in a quiet bedroom at night is about 30 dBA (USAF 1998).
4-7
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
CCAFS/KSC. Therefore, sonic booms from launches are not expected to adversely
affect the survival of any marine species (USAF 1998, NASA 2011).
4.1.2.4. Geology and Soils
For the Atlas V with SRBs, the Mars 2020 launch would result in deposition of solid
rocket exhaust products, consisting primarily of Al2O3 particulates and HCl, onto soils.
During a Delta II launch on November 4, 1995, pH in the surrounding air was monitored
to detect any changes caused by HCl vapors or deposition. Test strips were placed at
the perimeter of the launch pad and launch conditions were calm, which would yield
maximum HCl deposition. No pH changes were observed on any test strips, and there
was no evidence of acid deposition. The lack of pH changes associated with the small
ground cloud indicates that even with exposure to the concentrated cloud, acid
deposition would be minimal (USAF 1996b, NASA 2011).
Soils typically contain a substantial amount of organic matter, which results in a natural
buffering capacity that would potentially counteract the effects of any HCl they receive.
The soils of the barrier islands in this region are alkaline with high buffering capacity
(Schmalzer 1998). For example, despite additions of substantial amounts of acidic
deposition from 43 launches over a 10-year period, the affected soils at CCAFS showed
no decrease in buffering capacity. The HCl content of the exhaust plume from SRBs
would not be expected to adversely affect soils around launch sites at any of the
proposed launch sites. In addition, aluminum oxide would not affect the soils because it
would be deposited as a stable compound. Therefore, no measurable direct or indirect,
short- or long-term effects on soil chemistry would be expected as a result of launch
activities (USAF 1998, NASA 2011).
4.1.2.5. Water Quality
Impacts on water resources may be considered significant if processing or launch
activities interfere with surface water drainage, exceed the capacity of regional water
supply systems, or result in degradation of surface water or groundwater quality such
that existing water uses would be impaired.
Processing activities would take place within existing structures and precautions would
be taken to prevent and control spills of hazardous materials. Large spills of spacecraft
liquid propellant would be controlled through catchment systems in the processing
facilities. All chemicals used for processing would be managed to prevent contamination
of surface waters and groundwater.
Large quantities of water are used during launch of an Atlas V, a Delta IV, or a Falcon
Heavy for cooling, acoustic damping, post-launch wash-down, fire suppression, and
potable uses. The city of Cocoa, which pumps water from the Floridan aquifer, is
contracted to supply water to CCAFS and KSC, and has sufficient capacity to supply
sources to meet usage demands for launch of the Mars 2020 mission. Water used at
the launch complex during launch would be collected and treated, if necessary, prior to
being released to the CCAFS/KSC industrial wastewater treatment plant. At KSC, well
water is also used for some industrial purposes, including service to the LOX storage
4-8
4. Environmental Consequences
4-9
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
4-10
4. Environmental Consequences
mortality has been observed at CCAFS/KSC that could be attributed to Delta and Atlas
launches (Schmalzer 1998, NASA 2011).
In summary, biological resources are not expected to be adversely affected by the Mars
2020 launch except for short-term effects on fauna and flora in the immediate vicinity of
the launch complex. Impacts to vegetation from other launch vehicles have been
observed up to about 800 meters (2,625 feet) from the launch pads. Acidic deposition
from solid propellant exhaust products and high temperatures from the exhaust cloud
could damage or kill biota within the immediate vicinity of the launch pad; however,
long-term population effects on terrestrial biota would not be expected. Jettisoned
launch vehicle sections that land in the ocean would be subject to corrosion and release
of residual propellant. However, it is not likely that these vehicle sections would have an
adverse impact on marine species (USAF 1996a, NASA 2005a, NASA 2006, NASA
2011).
During the launch, wildlife in the vicinity of the launch site would be temporarily
disturbed due to noise, generally amounting to a startle effect. Because launches are
infrequent events, no long-term impacts would be anticipated on wildlife and marine
species from noise from the Mars 2020 launch (NASA 2005a).
No adverse impacts on threatened or endangered species would be expected from a
normal launch. Observations of conditions at launch facilities provided evidence that the
extent of impacts from similar launches have been minimal to threatened/endangered
species located near the launch complex (USAF 2000). Launch of the Mars 2020
mission would not interfere with CCAFS/KSC management of Florida scrub jay habitat.
CCAFS/KSC have a light management plan that addresses mitigation of impacts to
nesting sea turtles during nighttime launches and the plan would be implemented
should the Mars 2020 launch occur at night (USAF 2001).
4.1.2.8. Socioeconomics and Children’s Environmental Health and Safety
Launch of the proposed Mars 2020 mission from CCAFS/KSC would be part of the
normal complement of launches. Thus, a single launch would result in negligible
impacts to socioeconomic factors such as demography, employment, transportation,
and public or emergency services.
The only location where children are concentrated in the vicinity of the proposed launch
areas is at the KSC Child Development Center, which is more than 9.6 km (6.0 mi) from
any of the launch sites. Children at the Center may be exposed to increased noise
levels during launches. However, noise levels are expected to be greatly diminished at
that distance from the launch pad. Estimates of sound levels that the KSC Child
Development Center would experience during a launch event with either of the potential
Mars 2020 launch vehicles would be comparable to that previously evaluated for an
Ares 1 or Ares V launch, which were estimated to result in the rise of daycare center
exterior sound levels to 80 or 90 dBA. The interior sound levels at this time may differ
from 10 to 15 dBA less than the exterior. The duration of these increased sound levels,
both interior and exterior, would be less than 30 seconds (NASA 2007c). These sound
levels would be shorter in duration and lower in frequency than experienced during the
use of gas-powered mowers maintaining the grounds at the KSC Child Development
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Center. Therefore, the proposed action would not pose disproportionately high or
adverse short- or long-term impacts to children’s environmental health or safety (KSC
2014).
4.1.2.9. Cultural/Historic/Archaeological Resources
Impacts on cultural resources could be considered substantial if the proposed action
results in disturbance or loss of values or data that qualify a site for listing in the
National Register of Historic Places (NRHP); substantial disturbance or loss of data
from newly discovered properties or features prior to their recordation, evaluation and
possible treatment; or substantial changes to the natural environment or access to it
such that the practice of traditional culture or religious activities would be lost.
The proposed action would use existing facilities for payload processing, existing
roadways for payload transportation, and existing launch facilities. No new facilities are
proposed and no new construction or modifications to existing facilities would be
required for the proposed action. There would be no effect on buildings, structures,
objects, districts, or sites such as LC-39A that are listed or eligible for listing in the
NRHP. New facilities or modifications to existing facilities required to support near-term
Falcon Heavy operations at KSC/CCAFS are expected to be in place with multiple
Falcon Heavy launches occurring prior to the proposed Mars 2020 mission. In addition,
there is a programmatic agreement between KSC, the Advisory Council on Historic
Places and the Florida State Historic Preservation Officer regarding management of
historic properties at KSC (NASA 2005a, 2010, 2011). No short- or long-term impacts
would occur to cultural, historic, or archaeological resources as a result of a normal
launch.
4.1.2.10. Hazardous Materials and Hazardous Waste
Hazardous materials and hazardous wastes are controlled in accordance with federal
and state regulations. CCAFS and KSC have established procedures to implement
these regulations. All hazardous material releases must be reported to the Florida
Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP). All hazardous waste must be properly
containerized, stored, labeled, manifested, shipped, and disposed of in full regulatory
compliance. Any hazardous materials remaining after completion of processing would
be properly stored for future use or disposal in accordance with applicable regulations.
The processing of a launch vehicle at a launch site requires the use of hazardous
materials and results in the production of hazardous wastes. Impacts due to use of large
quantities of hazardous materials and creation of large quantities of hazardous waste
could be significant; however, through the use of established hazardous material
management and pollution prevention procedures the amounts would be minimized to
the greatest extent possible. Hazardous materials and hazardous waste impacts from
launch and launch vehicle processing are therefore considered minimal (KSC 2014).
With the proper procedures and safeguards in place, it is not expected that soil, water or
groundwater impacts would be caused by operations associated with handling
hazardous materials or the production and handling of hazardous waste during a normal
launch phase. In this regard, no short- or long-term impacts are expected.
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4. Environmental Consequences
4-13
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
The relative emission rate (mass of emitted compound per mass of propellant
consumed) has not been accurately determined for all of the compounds listed in Table
4-1. Rocket engine combustion computer models have been used to estimate the
emission rates for some compounds (NASA 2011).
Direct measurements using high-altitude aircraft have validated the model predictions in
some cases (Ross 2000, Ch. Voigt et.al. 2013). The combustion models have not yet
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4. Environmental Consequences
been used to estimate the rates for some important compounds, although theoretical
considerations suggest they should be present in the exhaust in small quantities.
The impact of rocket emissions is separated into an immediate local response following
each launch and a long-term global response that reflects the steady, cumulative
influence of all launches. Fast chemical reactions between reactive plume gases,
particles, and the surrounding air cause the local response. This can result in 100
percent ozone loss within the plume (Ross 2000, Murray, et.al. 2013). This phase can
last for several days until the reactive exhaust gases have been largely deactivated, and
the plume has substantially dispersed. The ozone loss in this phase, while dramatic,
does not likely contribute significantly to the global impact (Danilin 2001), at least for
SRB emissions and additional data collected by NASA indicate local ozone levels
tended to recover to ambient levels after a number of hours (NASA 2011, Murray et al.
2013).
The global response is driven by the accumulation of all gas and particulate emissions
over a long period of time after the exhaust has been mixed throughout the
stratosphere. An approximate steady state is achieved as exhaust from newer launches
replaces the exhaust from older launches, which is removed from the stratosphere by
the global atmospheric circulation, a process that takes about 3 years. The emitted
compounds add to the natural reservoirs of reactive gases and particle populations that
control ozone amounts (NASA 2011).
Of the three propellant combinations that would be utilized by the proposed launch
vehicles and listed in Table 4-1, only SRB emissions have been studied in depth. The
local and global impact of chlorine emitted by SRBs has been extensively measured
and modeled and is relatively well understood (i.e., WMO 1991, 2006). SRBs release
reactive chlorine gases directly in the stratosphere and in this case, the quantities are
small in comparison with other tropospheric sources. Stratospheric accumulation of
chlorine and alumina exhaust from current launch activities leads to small (less than 0.1
percent) global column ozone decreases and data support this conclusion (WMO 2006,
NASA 2011).
The global atmospheric models that have been successfully applied to SRB emissions
have not been applied to liquid emissions. The few findings that have been published
highlight the reactive gas and soot emissions of kerosene-fueled engines and
associated potential for ozone impacts (Newman 2001; Ross 2000). Because of the
scant data and lack of modeling tools, it is not possible to estimate the impact of liquid
propellant systems with the same degree of confidence as has been done for solid
propellant systems. Further research is required before the stratospheric impacts of
LOX/LH2 and LOX/RP-1 (kerosene) combustion emissions can be quantified (NASA
2011).
Among the proposed launch vehicles, the Atlas V 551 emits the greatest amount of
SRB exhaust into the stratosphere. It has been estimated that the ozone loss per Atlas
V 551 launch is 0.077 percent (USAF 2000). The present state of the stratosphere is
characterized by global ozone loss of about 4 percent, caused by past use of
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other controlled materials (NASA 2011). The launch of
any of the proposed launch vehicles is not expected to significantly increase ozone loss.
As a result of launch of the Delta or Falcon rockets, black carbon "soot" would be
emitted directly in the stratosphere above 20 km (12 mi). These black carbon or soot
particles can have a greater impact on climate change than rocket emissions of CO2.
Black carbon is known to be the second most important compound driving climate
change. In modeling studies, utilizing the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate
Model, researchers have shown these soot particles may accumulate into a thin cloud
at an altitude of about 40 km (25 mi), which remains relatively localized in latitude and
altitude (Ross, et al. 2010). The model suggests that if this layer reached high enough
concentrations, the Earth’s surface and atmospheric temperatures could be altered. The
globally integrated effect of these changes is, as for carbon dioxide, to increase the
amount of solar energy absorbed by the Earth’s atmosphere. Research on the potential
climate change impacts of black carbon from rockets is in a very early stage and
projections of impacts are being refined (KSC 2014).
Mitigation and/or minimization of this potential impact are being addressed in the
aerospace industry by advancing propulsion system designs and innovative fuel
mixtures that burn cleaner and reduce soot formation (KSC 2014). At present, impacts
from black carbon (soot) emitted as a result of the launch of one Atlas or Falcon series
vehicle are considered minor. Liquid propellants on the Delta IV Heavy do not generate
black carbon (soot).
Concerning long-term effects, launch of the proposed Mars 2020 mission on the Atlas
V, Delta IV, or Falcon Heavy would not be expected to make substantial contributions to
the amounts of ozone-depleting chemicals or greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Some short-term ozone depletion affects would occur within the exhaust plume of the
launch vehicle, but the depletion trail would be largely temporary and dissipate within a
few hours of the vehicle's passage. Greenhouse gases, principally CO2 (from the Atlas
V and Falcon Heavy), would be emitted during launch, but the amount would be
negligible. The Falcon Heavy is estimated to produce up to 976,000 kg (2,151,000 lb) of
CO2 per launch (USAF2011). This is on the order of one hundred-thousandths (10-5) of
a percent compared to the net greenhouse gases emitted by the United States in 2011
of approximately 5.8x1012 kg (1.3x1013 lb) measured as carbon dioxide equivalent
(EPA 2013).
In conclusion, the amount of greenhouse gases that may potentially be produced by the
launch vehicle for the 2020 mission would not result in substantial or long-term
environmental impacts to global ozone depletion or global warming.
4.1.2.15. Orbital and Reentry Debris
During the launch sequence of either the Atlas V, the Delta IV, or the Falcon Heavy for
the Mars 2020 mission (see Figures 2-12, 2-14, and 2-16 respectively), the SRB
casings of the Atlas V, the strap-on CBCs of the Delta IV, or the boosters of the Falcon
Heavy; the first stage, and the PLF would be jettisoned and fall into the Atlantic Ocean
in predetermined drop zones (see Section 4.1.2.11) well before reaching Earth’s orbit.
Shortly after separating from the first stage, the second stage engine would be ignited,
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4. Environmental Consequences
accelerating the second stage and the attached spacecraft to low Earth orbit. After a
brief coast period, the second stage engine would be reignited, accelerating to Earth
escape velocity. After propellant depletion, the second stage would be separated from
the Mars 2020 spacecraft, and the second stage would continue separately into
interplanetary space. Therefore, a normal launch of the Mars 2020 mission would not
contribute to orbital or reentry debris.
4.1.3 Non-radiological Environmental Impacts of Potential Accidents
The potential non-radiological environmental impacts associated with expendable
vehicle launch accidents have been discussed in previous USAF environmental
documentation (USAF 1998, USAF 2000), and are summarized here and augmented
with new information where applicable. A variety of accidents could occur during
preparations for launch and during launch. Only two types of non-radiological accidents
would have potential environmental consequences: a liquid propellant spill occurring
after the start of propellant loading operations and a launch accident. A launch accident
that leads to loss of the Mars 2020 mission is estimated to occur with a probability of
about 25 times out of 1,000 (SNL 2014). All launch accidents would have non-
radiological impacts.
The potential consequences of these accidents are presented below.
4.1.3.1. Liquid Propellant Spills
A typical Atlas V uses about 284,089 kg (626,309 lb) of RP-1 and LOX for the first
stage, and about 20,830 kg (45,922 lb) of LH2 and LOX, with less than 91 kg (201 lb) of
hydrazine for the Centaur second stage (USAF 2000, ILS 2001). A typical Delta IV
Heavy uses about 606,300 kg (1,336,663 lb) of LH2 and LOX for the first stage, about
27,200 kg (60,000 lb) of LH2 and LOX for the second stage, with about 154 kg (340 lb)
of hydrazine for the second stage (ULA 2013, Freeman 2006). The proposed Falcon
Heavy would be expected to use about 784,000 kg (1,730,000 lb) of RP-1 and LOX for
the first stage, and about 49,000 kg (108,000 lb) of LH2 and LOX for the second stage
(NASA 2011).
The Mars 2020 spacecraft would use about 460 kg (1014 lb) of hydrazine. The first
stage and second stage fueling operations for both vehicles are performed in
accordance with CCAFS/KSC propellant loading protocols. Standard procedures such
as use of closed loop systems are practiced, which would minimize worker exposure
and the potential for fuel releases.
Accidental leaks or spills of RP-1, LOX, LH2, and hydrazine could occur during
propellant loading and unloading activities. Range safety requirements specify that
plans and procedures be in place to protect the workforce and the public during fueling
operations (USAF 2004). Spill containment would be in place prior to any propellant
transfer to capture any potential release. Hydrazine transfer would involve a relatively
small amount of liquid through a relatively small transfer system, so any leakage would
be held to an absolute minimum. It is expected that, because of the limited quantities
involved, there would be no impact to the public.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Spill kits located in the work area would be used if a release were detected during RP-1
loading. Personnel would be present in the immediate area to handle any release.
Workers would be required to wear personal protective equipment while loading RP-1
and hydrazine, and all unprotected workers would be removed from the area prior to
loading. The operator would remotely close applicable valves to minimize any release
and safe the system.
If a spill or release is detected during LOX and LH2 loading at the launch pad, the
operator would remotely close the applicable valves to minimize the amount of liquid
released, and safe the system. Water deluge would be used if heat were detected in the
area of concern. Deluge water would be collected and treated, if necessary, prior to
being released to the CCAFS/KSC wastewater treatment plant.
4.1.3.2. Launch Failures and Suborbital, Orbital and Reentry Debris
Air Quality
The USAF has modeled postulated accidents at CCAFS involving combustion of typical
launch vehicle propellants (USAF 2000). Representative meteorological conditions were
used in the analyses to model movement of the exhaust cloud. Release and combustion
of both liquid and solid propellants were assumed to be involved. For the modeled
accidents, the principal constituents resulting from burning propellant were CO, Al2O3
particulates, and HCl; but also included H2, H2O, and CO2. Although Al2O3 particulates
would be deposited from the explosion cloud as it was carried downwind, little wet
deposition of HCl would be expected unless rain falls through the cloud of combustion
products. The estimated concentrations of combustion products resulting from these
postulated accidents were found to be well within applicable Federal, state, and USAF
standards. Based on these analyses, emissions resulting from an accident during the
Mars 2020 mission launch would not be expected to exceed any of the applicable
environmental standards, and would not adversely create short- or long-term impacts on
air quality in the region.
Geology and Soils
Launch accidents could result in impacts on near-field soils due to contamination from
rocket propellant. In the event of a launch accident, any spilled propellant would be
collected and disposed of by a certified disposal/remediation contractor in accordance
with the facility Spill Prevention, Control, and Countermeasures (SPCC) plan.
Contaminated soils would be removed and treated as hazardous waste in accordance
with Federal, state, and local regulations. Short-term impacts to soils may result but
would be minimal due to soil buffering capacities. No long-term adverse impacts to
geology or soils at CCAFS/KSC would be expected from the Mars 2020 launch
(USAF 1998, NASA 2005a, NASA 2006, NASA 2011)
Water Quality
Unburned pieces of solid propellant with high concentration of ammonium perchlorate
could fall on land or into nearby bodies of water. Trace amounts of solid propellant could
disassociate into ammonium ion and perchlorate ion. At low to moderate
concentrations, the ammonium ion is a plant nutrient and could stimulate plant growth
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4. Environmental Consequences
for short periods of time. At higher concentrations, the ammonium ion is toxic to aquatic
life and could cause short-term mortalities of aquatic animals within the immediate
vicinity of the launch vehicle impact.
Perchlorate could leach into surrounding water, but it would take about one-half year for
90 percent of the perchlorate to leach out in fresh water and about one year for 90
percent to leach out in salt water. At these rates, the perchlorate would be diluted as it
mixes with the surrounding water. Therefore, no substantial impacts to water quality and
biota in those areas would be expected as the solid propellant dissolves slowly. Pieces
of unburned solid propellant falling on land would be collected and disposed of as
hazardous waste. Similarly, large pieces falling in fresh water areas would be collected
and properly disposed of where practical, minimizing the potential for perchlorate
contamination (DOD 2003).
Launch vehicle debris from a liquid propellant fueled rocket is considered a negligible
hazard because virtually all hazardous materials are consumed in the destruct action or
dispersed in the air, and only structural debris could potentially fall into the water.
The low toxicity of this compound together with the slow release into the water does not
present a known substantial health hazard to marine life (TRW 2002).
Biological Resources
Birds, reptiles, and small mammals would be most at risk from impacts due to a launch
accident. Potential fires could result in temporary loss of habitat and mortality for
species that do not leave the area. An accident on the launch pad would frighten nearby
sensitive animal species that use the Indian and Banana Rivers (such as birds in
rookeries and neo-tropical birds). Threatened and endangered species, such as
manatees, sea turtles, and other aquatic species, would not be expected to be
adversely affected by a launch accident. Launch pad accidents resulting in full stack
intact impact could result in impacts on local water bodies due to contamination from
rocket propellant. In the event of of a launch accident, spilled propellant could enter
water bodies close to the launch pad and could cause contamination primarily from
hydrazine, monomethyl hydrazine (MMH), nitrogen tetroxide (NTO), and SRB
propellant. Powdered aluminum from the SRB propellant would rapidly oxidize to
aluminum oxide, which is non-toxic at the pH that prevails in surface waters surrounding
all proposed launch sites (NASA 2011).
In the event of a launch accident, hydrazine fuel tanks may impact water. Hydrazine
fuels are soluble and would disperse rapidly. Because of the small amount of hydrazine
present (even in the event of a full spacecraft fuel tank impacting water), short-term
impacts on the near-shore environments may result, but long-term impacts would not be
significant due to the buffering capacity of large water bodies (NASA 2008). Debris from
launch failures has the potential to adversely affect managed fish species and their
habitats in the vicinity of the launch site. Ammonium perchlorate in solid propellant
contains chemicals that, in high concentrations, have the potential to result in adverse
impacts to the marine environment. As noted above, however, perchlorate would leach
out slowly and be diluted to low concentrations in the surrounding water, posing little
impact to the marine environment (DOD 2003). The USAF has consulted with the
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
National Marine Fisheries Service on essential fish habitat regarding launches from
CCAFS (USAF 2000) of vehicles using SRBs. Launch of the Mars 2020 mission from
CCAFS would be covered under this consultation.
Residual RP-1 fuel is weakly soluble, would spread over the surface of the water, and
should evaporate within a few hours, resulting in only a short-term impact to aquatic
biota.
The environmental impact of objects falling into the ocean would depend on the physical
properties of the materials (e.g., size, composition, quantity, and solubility) and the
marine environment of the impact region. Based on past analyses of other space
components, it is expected that the environmental impact of reentering orbital debris
would be negligible (NASA 2005b; USAF 1998). There is a remote possibility that
surviving pieces of debris could impact marine life or vessels on or near the ocean
surface. Once the pieces travel a few feet below the ocean surface, their velocity would
be slowed to the point that the potential for direct impact on sea life would be low
(NASA 2008, NASA 2011).
Health and Safety
A launch vehicle accident either on or near the launch pad within a few seconds of lift-
off presents the greatest potential for impact to human health, principally to workers. For
the proposed Mars 2020 mission, the primary potential health hazard during a launch
accident would be from the HCl emitted from burning solid propellant from the SRBs.
Range Safety at CCAFS/KSC uses models to predict launch hazards to the public and
to personnel prior to every launch. These models calculate the risk of injury resulting
from toxic gases, debris, and blast overpressure from potential launch failures.
Launches are postponed if the predicted collective public risk of injury exceeds
acceptable limits, which are applied separately for the risk of injury from exposure to
toxic gases, debris, and blast overpressure (USAF 2004). This approach takes into
account the probability of a catastrophic failure, the resultant plume's toxic
concentration, direction, and dwell time, and emergency preparedness procedures
(USAF 2000).
Range Safety requirements mandate destruct systems on liquid propellant tanks and
SRBs (see Section 2.1.6.4). In the event of destruct system activation, the propellant
tanks and SRB casings would be ruptured and the entire launch vehicle would be
destroyed. A catastrophic launch failure would involve burning solid propellant and the
ignition of liquid propellant. The potential short-term effects of an accident would include
a localized fireball, falling debris from explosion of the vehicle, release of unburned
propellants and propellant combustion products, on-pad or very low altitude explosions,
death or damage to nearby biota, and brush fires near the launch pad.
A Brevard County Emergency Management Center representative would be present at
a CCAFS launch console with direct audio and video communications links to the
Center. The USAF also has a direct emergency phone line to the Florida State
Emergency Response Center.
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4. Environmental Consequences
For suborbital, orbital, and reentry debris, standard safety review processes require that
NASA missions comply with the re-entry requirements of the NASA Standard 8719.14,
Process for Limiting Orbital Debris. This NASA Standard (i.e., Requirement 4.7.1) limits
the risk of human casualty from re-entry debris to 1 in 10,000 and requires that missions
be designed to assure that, in both controlled and uncontrolled entries, domestic and
foreign landmasses are avoided.
NASA studied the potential risks associated with reentry and Earth impact of spacecraft
propellant tanks, specifically in regard to a late launch failure to insert a spacecraft into
a typical parking orbit for later deep space trajectory injection. The study relied primarily
on existing data and analyses supplemented by a detailed assessment of the potential
impacts of a suborbital accident from the Eastern Range (CCAFS) involving
approximately 400 kg (882 lb) of hydrazine reaching land. This case was determined to
represent a wide range of potential accidents involving hydrazine propellants (NASA
2011).
The study of a postulated release of approximately 400 kg of residual hydrazine as a
result of a suborbital accident for a launch from the Eastern Range indicates there is
less than 1 chance in 10,000 (including the probability of the launch accident and
ground impact) of harming any individual based on the 1-hour interim Acute Exposure
Guideline Level-2 (AEGL-2) value of 13 ppm (17 mg/m3) established by the EPA for
hydrazine [http://www.epa.gov/oppt/aegl/index.htm]. In fact, a larger release of
hydrazine (i.e., a factor of 2 to 3 higher) or approximately 1,200 kg under the same
circumstances would still pose less than 1 chance in 10,000 of harming any individual,
including the probability of the launch accident and ground impact (NASA 2011).
Specifically, for the MSL spacecraft, an analysis showed that under certain launch
accident conditions, there was a small probability the spacecraft with a full propellant
load (475 kg) could reenter prior to achieving orbit and impact land in southern Africa or
Madagascar. The probability of such an accident occurring and leading to a land impact
was determined to be on the order of 1 in 20,000. The overall risk of an individual injury
resulting from the land impact of a spacecraft and exposure to hydrazine was
determined to be less than 1 in 100,000 (NASA 2010b).
In accident scenarios occurring after achievement of the parking orbit, analysis for the
MSL spacecraft determined it could reenter from orbit and potentially impact land
anywhere between 36° north and south of the equator. Under these conditions, only a
small portion (i.e., less than about 5%) of the full propellant load could reach the ground
if the tanks did not burst due to reentry heating effects and release their contents into
the atmosphere. The overall probability of this type of accident occurring was
determined to be less than 1 in 200. In this type of accident, it is extremely unlikely that
there would be any residual hydrazine remaining inside the propellant tanks at the point
of ground impact (NASA 2010b).
Because of the increasing number of objects in space and their potential for reentry,
NASA adopted guidelines and assessment procedures to reduce the number of non-
operational spacecraft and spent rocket upper stages orbiting the Earth. NASA’s launch
Project Managers must employ design and operation practices that limit the generation
of orbital debris, consistent with mission requirements and cost effectiveness. The Mars
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
2020 mission has completed the required orbital debris assessment report for the
spacecraft. The report indicates which requirements are applicable and documents
compliance with applicable requirements. NASA’s Office of Safety and Mission
Assurance approved the report on January 15, 2014.
NPR 8715.6A, NASA Procedural Requirements for Limiting Orbital Debris, requires that
each program or project conduct a formal assessment for the potential to generate
orbital debris and to analyze the impacts of space structure reentry. NASA also has a
technical standard (NASA-STD 8719.14) and corresponding handbook (NASA-HBK
8719.14) to provide specific guidelines and methods to limit orbital debris generation.
To mitigate potential safety and environmental impacts from orbital debris generation
and space structure reentry, all NASA orbital missions originating from the proposed
launch facilities would comply with the processes outlined in NPR 8715.6A and NASA-
STD 8719.14, both of which establish requirements for (1) limiting the generation of
orbital debris, (2) assessing the risk of collision with existing space debris, (3) assessing
the potential of space structures to impact the surface of the Earth, and (4) assessing
and limiting the risk associated with the end of mission of a space object. These
requirements apply to both full spacecraft and jettisoned components, including launch
vehicle orbital stages.
For accidents involving suborbital debris, parts of the exploded vehicle would fall back
to Earth. Except for on-pad or near-pad accidents, most of the fragments would fall into
the Atlantic Ocean, where the metal parts would eventually corrode. Toxic
concentrations of metals would not be likely because of slow corrosion rates and the
large volume of ocean water available for dilution (USAF 1996a, NASA 2011).
4.1.4 Environmental Impacts of Potential Accidents Involving Radioactive Material
NASA and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) have assessed the potential
environmental impacts of launch accidents involving release of plutonium dioxide
(PuO2). The analysis results indicate that the most likely outcome of implementing the
proposed Mars 2020 mission is a successful launch of the spacecraft toward Mars. If,
however, a launch accident were to occur, the most probable outcome is an accident
without a release of the PuO2. Specifically:
There is a 97.5% chance of a successful launch.
There is a 2.5% chance of a launch accident.
There is a 1 in 2,600 chance of a launch accident that would release plutonium
dioxide.
o There is a 1 in 11,000 chance of a launch accident that would result in a
release of plutonium dioxide in the launch area.
o There is a 1 in 3,500 chance of a launch accident that would result in a
release of plutonium dioxide outside the launch area.
No radiological fatalities would be expected to occur as a result of any accident.
The average maximum dose to any member of the public from an accident with a
release in the launch area would be equal to about 3 months of exposure to
natural background radiation for a person living in the United States.
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4. Environmental Consequences
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
includes minor contributions from other related plutonium and actinide radionuclides
(see Table 2-4).
A composite approach has been taken in reporting the results in the DOE risk
assessment for this FEIS for accident probabilities, potential releases of PuO2 in case of
an accident (with that portion of the release becoming airborne called source terms),
radiological consequences, and mission risks. In the composite approach, the results for
the representative Atlas V 551 and Delta IV Heavy launch vehicles were combined in a
probability-weighted manner. DOE’s risk assessment was developed during the time
when the candidate launch vehicles being considered by NASA for the Mars 2020
mission were the Atlas V 541 and 551, the Delta IV Heavy, and the Falcon Heavy. Data
for the Atlas V 551 was used to represent both Atlas V launch vehicles; Delta IV Heavy
data was used to represent both the Delta IV Heavy and the Falcon Heavy. The primary
difference between the Atlas V 551 and the Atlas V 541 is one additional solid rocket
booster on the Atlas V 551. Therefore, the consequences associated with launch
accidents for the Atlas V 541 would be enveloped by those for the Atlas V 551 launch
accidents. While many details regarding the Falcon Heavy design are not presently
available, both the Delta IV Heavy and Falcon Heavy are large boost capacity liquid
fueled launch vehicles. Both consist of a liquid propellant fueled first stage core with two
nearly identical boosters and a second stage powered by a single liquid fueled engine.
Differences in the launch vehicles in terms of design, accident probabilities, and
accident environments have been taken into account in developing composite results.
The basic steps in the risk assessment methodology are presented in Figure 4-1. The
nuclear risk assessment for the Mars 2020 mission FEIS began with the identification of
initial launch vehicle system failures and the subsequent chain of accident events that
could ultimately lead to accident environments that could threaten the MMRTG. These
launch vehicle system failures were based on Atlas V 551 and Delta IV Heavy system
reliabilities and estimated failure probabilities developed by NASA (2013).
Some intermediate accident events (such as fragments from a propellant tank
explosion) and final accident configurations (such as the MMRTG impacting the ground
near burning solid propellant) have the potential to create accident environments that
could damage the MMRTG and result in the release of PuO2. Based on analyses
performed for earlier missions that carried radioisotope devices14, DOE identified the
specific accident events that could potentially threaten the MMRTG. Eight accident
events were identified for consideration for the Mars 2020 mission FEIS:
(1) Liquid propellant explosions;
(2) Solid propellant explosions;
(3) Liquid propellant fires;
14
RTGs and radioisotope heater units (which contain about 2.7 grams (0.1 ounce) of PuO2, and generate
1 watt of heat for passive thermal control). Radioisotope heater units are not planned for the Proposed
Action (Alternative 1).
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4. Environmental Consequences
A given accident could involve one or more of these environment characteristics. The
severity of the environments would vary from accident to accident. NASA has
conducted a number of experiments to improve understanding of accident
environments. The ongoing Solid Propellant Fire Tests and the Star 37 Motor Drop
Tests are two most recent experiments for this purpose.
DOE determined the response of the MMRTG and GPHS modules to these accident
environments and estimated the amount of radioactive material that could potentially be
released. Results of DOE’s testing and analyses program for previous configurations of
RTGs were used to determine if a release of radioactive material from the MMRTG
could potentially occur. The release fractions (the fraction of the PuO2 that would be
released to the environment) were determined by considering five accident
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
15
Additional latent cancer fatalities due to a radioactive release (i.e., the number of cancer fatalities
resulting from this release that are in addition to those cancer fatalities the general population would
normally experience from other causes).
16
The main engine undergoes an automatic health check beginning at first-stage main engine start.
Should a malfunction be detected before liftoff, the engine would be shut down and the launch would be
aborted.
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4. Environmental Consequences
accident would be subject to suborbital reentry heating, and the time orbit is achieved.
These events occur at different mission elapsed times for the Atlas V and Delta IV
vehicles.
Phase 0—Pre-Launch: from the installation of the MMRTG to just prior to the
start of the first stage main engine
Phase 1—Early Launch: from the start of the first stage main engines to just prior
to the time after which there would be no potential for debris or an intact vehicle
configuration to impact land in the launch area, and water impact would occur
Phase 2—Late Launch: from the end of Phase 1 to when the launch vehicle
reaches an altitude of about 30 km (100,000 ft), an altitude above which reentry
heating could occur
Phase 3—Suborbital Reentry: from an altitude of about 30 km (100,000 ft) to the
first engine cutoff of the second stage and the Command Destruct System (CDS)
is disabled
Phase 4—Orbit Reentry: from the first engine cutoff of the second stage to
separation of the spacecraft from the second stage
Phase 5—Long-term Reentry: from spacecraft separation to no chance of
spacecraft reentry.
The methodology used to calculate the Atlas V and Delta IV probabilities utilized flight
histories of comparable United States and Russian launch vehicles flown since 1988.
This flight history consists of earlier versions of Atlas and Titan launch vehicles
manufactured by the Lockheed Martin Corporation, Delta launch vehicles manufactured
by The Boeing Company, and other launch vehicles. This is done to provide some
assurance to the estimate that all past applicable and partially applicable flight failure
experiences are considered in the reliability estimate of the launch vehicle for the Mars
2020 mission. The analytical approach for the overall mission launch reliability is
considered by NASA to be generally representative of the available launch vehicles for
this mission, including the Falcon Heavy, and is based upon the most recent best
available information at the time of the analysis. NASA continues to evaluate the
reliability of the candidate launch vehicles (NASA 2013e).
Accidents and their associated probabilities were developed in terms of initiating
failures, defined as the first system-level indication of an anomaly that could lead to a
launch abort (i.e., safe hold or termination of the launch countdown), catastrophic
accident, or mission failure. An example of an initiating failure would be a trajectory
control malfunction resulting in the launch vehicle deviating from its planned trajectory.
An initiating failure is the beginning of a sequence of intermediate events that lead to a
range of possible end states, including accident configurations involving the MMRTG
and various launch vehicle stages17 and the Mars 2020 spacecraft. For example,
activation of the Flight Termination System (FTS) following a trajectory control
17
For brevity in the following discussion, the first and second stages of the Mars 2020 launch vehicle and
the Mars 2020 spacecraft, are sometimes referred to as Stages 1 and 2, and SV (space vehicle)
respectively.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
malfunction could lead to the MMRTG impacting the ground. Associated with the
accident configuration end states are the environments that could damage the MMRTG
and result in the release of PuO2.
Pre-Launch (T < 0 seconds) initiating failures include tank failures, MMRTG cooling
system failures, and inadvertent FTS activation. Pre-Launch initiating failures generally
involve conditions that can be mitigated by existing systems or procedures, leading to
mission abort rather than accidents that threaten the MMRTG.
The Launch and Post Launch (T ≥ 0seconds) initiating failures include:
Ground Support Equipment failure during liftoff
Trajectory and attitude control malfunctions
Propellant tank failures
Catastrophic main engine failures affecting either the Stage 1 or Stage 2 engines
SRB case failure (in the Atlas V 551)
Structural failure
Inadvertent FTS activation or payload fairing (PLF) separation
Staging failure.
The post launch (Phase 1 and 2) accident end states that can result from the initiating
failures are determined to a large degree by the FTS actions (see Section 2.1.6.4) that
occur or do not occur during the accident progression following the initiating failure.
Important FTS considerations affecting the end states are:
Automatic Destruct System (ADS). The ADS destroys the Stages 1 and 2 liquid
propellant tanks and the SRBs (on the Atlas V 551). The ADS is safed
(automatically deactivated) prior to Stage 1 / 2 separation.
Command Destruct System (CDS): The CDS is activated by the Mission Flight
Control Officer (MFCO) and destroys the launch vehicle in the same manner as
the ADS. The MFCO would likely issue a CDS in case of a trajectory or attitude
control malfunction, where the launch vehicle deviation from the planned
trajectory violates specific range safety criteria for continuation of a safe launch.
Should the MFCO response time needed for a CDS be insufficient, ground
impact of the entire vehicle (termed full-stack intact impact, or FSII) could result.
The CDS is safed at the end of the first Stage 2 burn.
The initiating failures therefore lead to one or more of the following accident end states,
denoting conditions of first threat to the MMRTG:
On-Pad Explosion, occurring as a result of accidents occurring during Pre-
Launch or very near the pad just prior to actual liftoff and after completion of the
Stage 1 engine health check
Low and High Altitude FTS. “Low Altitude” denotes conditions where impacts are
likely to occur on land, while “High Altitude” denotes conditions leading to impact
on the Atlantic Ocean. The response of the spacecraft (SC) to an FTS would
depend on the launch vehicle and the accident environment conditions
Full Stack Intact Impact (FSII), in which the entire launch vehicle stack impacts
the ground
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4. Environmental Consequences
Stage 2/ Space Vehicle (SV) Impact, in which Stage 2/SV impacts the ground
SV Intact Impact (SVII), in which the intact SV impacts the ground
Sub-orbital reentry
Orbital reentry, referring to reentry after decay from orbit. Other types of reentry
are possible (e.g., prompt), but at a much lower probability.
Long-term reentry, referring to Earth reentry of the spacecraft after a spacecraft
maneuver failure enroute to Mars. These type accidents may not occur for tens
to hundreds of years after launch.
The composite accident end state probabilities for the composite launch vehicle are
presented in Table 4-2.
For this FEIS, the initiating probabilities and total probabilities of an accident with a
release of PuO2 are grouped into categories that allow for a descriptive characterization
of the likelihood of each accident. The categories and their associated probability
ranges are:
unlikely: 10-2 to 10-4 (1 in 100 to 1 in 10 thousand)
very unlikely: 10-4 to 10-6 (1 in 10 thousand to 1 in 1 million)
extremely unlikely: less than 10-6 (less than 1 in 1 million).
-3 -3
High Altitude FTS - - 3.6x10 - - - 3.6x10
-2 -2
Sub-Orbital Reentry - - - 1.3x10 - - 1.3x10
-3 -3
Orbital Reentry - - - - 4.7x10 - 4.7x10
-6 -6
Long-term Reentry - - - - - 1.0x10 1.0x10
-5 -3 -3 -2 -3 -6 -2
Total 3.3 x10 3.1x10 3.6x10 1.3x10 4.7x10 1.0x10 2.5x10
Source: SNL 2014
(a) The table presents a composite of the accident end state probabilities for the Atlas V 551and the Delta IV Heavy, determined by taking
the probability-weighted value of the two sets of results, treating the conditional probability of having a given launch vehicle as 0.5.
Some of these types of launch accidents occurred during the early development of
launch vehicles in the United States; subsequently, changes were made to both vehicle
design practices and range safety systems to prevent future occurrences. These
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
accidents, in general, require multiple failures of both launch vehicle and range safety
systems. Probability differences of a factor of a few percent would not represent
statistically significant differences and are well within uncertainty bounds. The
discussion of the probabilities by broad frequency categories is more appropriate.
The potential accident environments include blast (explosion overpressure), fragments,
thermal energy (burning liquid propellant and/or solid propellant), reentry conditions
(aerodynamic loads and heating), and surface impact. A given accident could involve
one or more sequential and/or simultaneously occurring accident environments. The
nature and severity of such environments would be a function of the type of accident
and its timing (relative to launch). There are two representative launch vehicles for the
Nuclear Risk Assessment that bound the set of LV that could be selected for the
proposed Mars 2020 mission: the Atlas V 551 and the Delta IV Heavy. DOE’s nuclear
risk assessment for this FEIS uses a composite average of the two sets of accident
probabilities in performing the nuclear risk assessment for the Mars 2020 mission, as
presented in Table 4-2. This approach reflects the state of knowledge at this early stage
in the mission with respect to the launch vehicle to be used on the Mars 2020 mission.
Preliminary analyses indicate that the differences between the two representative
launch vehicles are not expected to be significant, given the uncertainties in estimates
made as part of the overall nuclear risk assessment. At the same time, differences in
accident environments for the two representative launch vehicles are taken into account
in developing composite source terms for use in the analysis.
4.1.4.3. MMRTG Response to Accident Environments
The nature and severity of the accident environments and the design features of the
MMRTG and its components determine the response of the MMRTG and its
components to the accident environments. These responses are then characterized in
terms of the probability of release and the source terms.
The response of the MMRTG to accident environments is based on consideration of
prior safety testing of the GPHS-RTG and its components (including the GPHS
module),
modeling of the response of the MMRTG and its components (including the
GPHS module) to accident environments, and
the types of launch vehicle accidents and their environments.
This information allows estimates to be made of the probability of release of PuO2 and
the amount of the release for the range of accident scenarios and environments that
could potentially occur during the mission. The protection provided by the GPHS
module, its graphite components, and the iridium clad encapsulating the PuO 2 reduces
the potential for release in accident environments. Potential responses of the MMRTG
and its components in accident environments are summarized below (SNL 2014).
Explosion Overpressure and Fragments: Liquid propellant explosions and
resulting fragments are expected to damage the MMRTG, but not result in any
release of plutonium dioxide.
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4. Environmental Consequences
Impact: The GPHS module and its graphitic components are expected to
fracture under mechanical impact conditions. This provides some energy
absorbing protection to the fueled clad. Under most accident conditions this
results in little or no release of plutonium dioxide from the GPHS modules.
o Most impacts of an intact MMRTG or GPHS modules on steel or concrete
near the launch pad could result in little or no release of PuO2, depending on
the impact velocity.
o Suborbital or Orbital Reentry accidents lead to GPHS modules impacting rock
following reentry; a small release could occur.
o The SV is expected to stay intact until impact due to the protection of the SV
back shell and heat shield in any ground impact. The combined effect of the
SV hitting the ground and the MMRTG subsequently being hit by the SV
components above it, occasionally results in a fuel release; depending on the
impact velocity and orientation.
o Larger intact configurations, such as FSII and Stage 2/SV intact impact could
result in higher releases for certain orientations in which launch vehicle and/or
SV components impact directly onto the MMRTG.
Thermal: The response of the PuO2 to the thermal environment is highly
dependent upon the intensity of that environment. Exposure to liquid propellant
and solid propellant fires results in very different source terms.
o Exposure of released PuO2 to a liquid propellant fireball environment would
be of short duration (nominally 20 s or less). Very minor vaporization of
exposed PuO2 particles would occur depending on the timing of the ground
impact release and the fireball development. Vaporization of PuO2 is
negligible below about 2,177oC (3,951oF) and the fireball temperature would
decrease below this temperature in less than 1 second, and continue
dropping as the fireball expands.
o For the Atlas V 551, exposure of released PuO2 fuel to the higher-
temperature (up to 2,827°C (5,121°F)), longer burning (up to 250 seconds)
solid-propellant from SRB fragments could lead to more substantial
vaporization of exposed PuO2. In addition, exposure of a bare (or breached)
iridium clad could result in clad degradation either through chemical
interactions or melting, resulting in more exposed PuO2 and additional partial
vaporization. The GPHS aeroshell graphitic components could be damaged in
accident environments, which would allow such an exposure of the iridium
clads. In addition, very minor PuO2 vapor releases from intact aeroshell
modules are possible in certain exposure conditions (e.g., underneath large
pieces of burning solid propellant). Under such conditions, temperatures
inside the module could be high enough to degrade the iridium clads and
vaporize some PuO2, which, in turn, could permeate through the somewhat
porous graphitic materials.
Reentry: Impacts resulting from reentry of the MMRTG are dependent upon
when and from where reentry occurs.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
o Most suborbital reentries are predicted to result in intact impact of the SV due
to the presence of the SV aeroshell for Mars entry. Releases in these cases
are similar in nature to those from SV impact near the launch pad.
o Reentry from circular orbital decay or long-term reentry is predicted to cause
breakup of the SV and the MMRTG with subsequent release of the GPHS
modules. (This breakup of the MMRTG and release of the GPHS modules is
intentional and designed to limit the release of PuO2 in this type of accident.)
This will result in some heating and ablation of the surface of the GPHS
modules, but no containment failure or release in the air. When these
separated components impact land, there is a potential for release from the
GPHS module if the impact is on rock or a similar hard surface. No release is
expected from a water impact or soil impact.
Most launch accidents in Phases 0 and 1 would lead to one of several types of ground
impact configurations (e.g., FSII, Stage 2/SV, SV, SV/MMRTG, MMRTG, or free GPHS
modules). Ground impacts of the SV on steel or concrete can occasionally lead to a
release. For larger impacting configurations, such as an FSII or Stage 2/SV intact
impact, larger fuel releases are expected. Exposure to the liquid propellant fireball could
lead to some vaporization of released PuO2 depending on the relative timing of the
impact release and the fireball development. Subsequent exposure of MMRTG
components and PuO2 to burning solid propellant could result in increased releases
through partial vaporization of the PuO2.
Nearly all Phase 2 accidents lead to impact of debris in the Atlantic Ocean with no
releases. However, there are some very small releases in air from blast-generated
debris.
Phase 3 accidents could lead to sub-orbital reentry heating and ground impact of the
intact SV and MMRTG. The GPHS modules are designed to survive reentry, however,
any subsequent ground impact of the MMRTG on hard surfaces (e.g., rock) could result
in small releases of PuO2. Additionally, there is a possibility that the Mars 2020 entry
vehicle aeroshell might provide some reentry protection such that the SV or portions of
it, including the rover/MMRTG or the MMRTG, could survive reentry and result in SV
components impacting the MMRTG. This could also occasionally result in small
releases of PuO2.
Phase 4 and 5 accidents lead to orbital, and long-term reentry heating and ground
impact environments. The GPHS modules are designed to survive reentry; however,
any ground impact on rock could result in small releases of PuO2.
4.1.4.4. Accident Probabilities and Source Terms
In the nuclear risk assessment, DOE evaluated each of the identified end states and
estimated the accident environments to which the MMRTG would likely be exposed.
From that information, conditional probabilities that a release would occur and estimated
source terms were developed based on the known response of GPHS modules to
various accident environments.
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4. Environmental Consequences
The probability of a launch accident involving any release of PuO2 is very small,
approximately 1 in 2,600. The most severe accident environments would occur during
launch area accidents that might expose the MMRTG to mechanical impacts, explosion
overpressures and fragments, and fire environments from burning liquid and solid
propellants.
A summary of the accident and source term probabilities by mission phase, along with
mean and 99th percentile source terms, is presented in Table 4-3. For the purpose of
this FEIS, "source term" is defined as the quantity of radioisotope that is released from
the fueled clads in the GPHS modules and becomes airborne. Consequences
associated with the material released in an accident are driven by the portion of the
release that can become airborne and be transported away from the impact site. Not all
of the material released from the fueled clads is expected to become airborne; the
amount that does is dependent upon the accident conditions. Several factors contribute
to a reduction in the released material to the source term. Some of the release could
become trapped in debris or slag at the MMRTG impact site. Plutonium dioxide could be
retained inside the graphite components of the GPHS module, and some could be
shielded from any fire environments by the graphite components and other debris,
including sand. In addition, the size of the plutonium dioxide particles affects the
likelihood of the plutonium dioxide becoming airborne, the larger the particles the less
likely they are to become airborne.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
4-34
4. Environmental Consequences
1: Early Launch
-5 -6
On-Pad Explosion Very Unlikely (9.8x10 ) 2.0 0.035 0.085 Very Unlikely (8.3x10 ) 23 40
-5 -6
FSII Very Unlikely (2.2x10 ) 15 340 0.14 Very Unlikely (3.2x10 ) 110 1,800
-5 -6
Stage 2/SV Very Unlikely (4.8x10 ) 2.8 55 0.036 Very Unlikely (1.8x10 ) 77 910
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
4-36
4. Environmental Consequences
As noted in Table 4-3, particles larger than 100 micrometers (μm) are expected to
remain in the vicinity of the MMRTG impact site. The 99th percentile source term is the
value predicted to be exceeded with a probability of 0.01 (1 in 100), given a release in
an accident. (This percentile is derived from a statistical analysis to model the
progression of the accident. In this analysis, DOE has used a computer code that
performs multiple trials, typically 150,000, in which the probabilities of the parameters
that affect the size of the source term are varied according to their probability
distributions. The 99th percentile is therefore the value exceeded in 1 percent of these
trials.) In this context, the 99th percentile value reflects the potential for higher
radionuclide releases at lower probabilities. The 99th percentile releases are one to
approximately 24 times the mean estimates reported in this FEIS, but at probabilities of
a factor of 100 times lower than the mean probabilities.
Phase 0 (Pre-Launch): During the pre-launch period, and prior to ignition of the
Stage 1 liquid rocket engine, most initiating failures result in a mission abort.
Those failures that result in on-pad accidents and a release have a total
probability of 1.1x10-5 (1 in 93,000). The mean source term, given that an
accident with a release has occurred, is estimated to be 0.28 Ci.
Phase 1 (Early Launch): During Phase 1, during which land impacts, including
near the launch complex, are possible, the accidents resulting in a release have
a total probability estimated to be 8.8x10-5 (or 1 in 11,000). The mean source
term, given that an accident with a release has occurred, is estimated to be 59
Ci.
Most initiating failures occurring in Phase 1 would lead to activation of the FTS.
The elements of the FTS are highly redundant and reliable. As a result, the
expected outcome of a Phase 1 accident is ground impact of the spacecraft or
portions thereof, including possibly the rover with attached MMRTG, the MMRTG
alone, or free GPHS modules. In this case, mechanical damage and, for an Atlas
V 551 accident, potential exposure to burning solid propellant could occur. The
probability for this impact configuration with a release is estimated to be 7.5x10-5
(or 1 in 13,000). The mean source term, given an accident with a release has
occurred, is estimated to be 61 Ci.
A much less likely outcome of a Phase 1 accident involves failure of some or all
of the FTS elements to perform properly. This could lead to ground impact of the
spacecraft (with the MMRTG inside) still attached to other launch vehicle stages
(Stages 1 and 2, or Stage 2). Since this would require multiple failures of safety
systems, such ground impact configurations leading to a release are very
unlikely, with an estimated probability of 5.0 x10-6 (1 in 200,000). However,
because the MMRTG could impact the ground within the spacecraft at higher
velocities and with additional mass above the spacecraft due to the attached
Stage(s), the potential for more severe mechanical damage is higher than with
the expected accident conditions associated with normal activation of the FTS.
For impact configurations leading to the largest estimated releases, such as the
Intact Stage 2/SV and the FSII, slightly larger estimated mean source terms
given an accident with a release, of 77 Ci and 110 Ci, respectively could occur.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Phase 2 (Late Launch): All accidents that could occur in Phase 2 would lead to
impact of debris in the Atlantic Ocean. Most such accidents result in no release
of PuO2. However, in some cases, small quantities of PuO2 can be released. It is
possible that blast and fragment impacts could result in some at altitude
releases. The total probability of a release is very unlikely— 7.7x10-6 (one in
130,000). The estimated mean source term, given an accident with a release
would be 0.016 Ci.
Phase 3 (Suborbital): Accidents during Phase 3 include sub-orbital reentries.
Prior to the attainment of Earth parking orbit, these conditions could lead to
prompt sub-orbital reentry within minutes. Following spacecraft breakup during
reentry, this could result in impacts of individual GPHS modules along the vehicle
flight path over the Atlantic Ocean and southern Africa. Additional sub-orbital
land impacts are possible after crossing over Africa, depending on the launch
vehicle and its mission timeline. Should the GPHS modules impact hard surfaces
(e.g., rock), small releases are possible at ground level. There is a possibility that
the SV or portions thereof, including the rover/MMRTG or the MMRTG would
survive sub-orbital reentry. The total probability of release in Phase 3 is
estimated to be 1.5x10-5 (or 1 in 67,000). The mean source term given that a
release has occurred is estimated to be 42 Ci.
Phase 4 (Orbital): Accidents which occur after attaining parking orbit could result
in orbital decay reentries from minutes to years after the accident, affecting Earth
surfaces between approximately 29° north latitude and 29° south latitude. Post-
reentry impact releases would be similar to those in Phase 3. The total probability
of a release is estimated to be 2.6x10-4 (or 1 in 3,800). The mean source term
given that a release has occurred is estimated to be 0.53 Ci.
Phase 5 (Long-Term Reentry): The potential exists for an inadvertent long-term
(hundreds to thousands of years) reentry should the SC be left in an Earth
crossing orbit. Based on considerations of long-term inadvertent reentry for other
missions, the probability of such an occurrence is estimated to be less than
1x10-6. Post-reentry impact releases would be similar to those in Phase 3. The
total probability of a release is estimated to be 9.4x10-8 (or 1 in 11,000,000). The
mean source term given that a release has occurred is estimated to be 0.77 Ci.
4.1.4.5. Radiological Consequences
The radiological consequences (assuming no post-accident mitigation) of a given
accident that results in a radiological release have been calculated in terms of maximum
individual dose, collective dose, health effects, and land area contaminated at or above
specified levels. The radiological consequences have been determined from
atmospheric transport and dispersion simulations incorporating both launch-site specific
and worldwide meteorological and population data. Biological effects models, based on
methods prescribed by the Interagency Steering Committee on Radiation Standards
(ISCORS), were applied to predict the number of health effects following a launch
accident that results in a release of PuO2. The analysis assumes that no mitigation
measures (e.g., sheltering, evacuation, and decontamination) are taken to reduce the
health impacts. Additional information on the behavior of plutonium in the environment
(environmental transport and health impact mechanisms) can be found in Appendix B.
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4. Environmental Consequences
The maximum individual dose is the mean maximum dose delivered to a single
individual for a given accident. Collective dose is the sum of the radiation dose received
by all individuals exposed to radiation from a given release in units of “person-rem.”
Internal doses are determined using particle-size dependent dose conversion factors
based on ICRP-60 (ICRP 1979) and ICRP-66/67 (ICRP 1993, ICRP 1994). The
exposure pathways considered include direct inhalation, inhalation of re-suspended
material, ingestion (e.g., vegetables, fruit, and seafood), and external exposure. Due to
the insoluble nature of PuO2, other secondary exposure pathways (e.g., meat and milk)
would be far less important, and their contributions to dose would be negligible. The
collective dose is used to estimate the health effects impacts of launch accidents.
The health effects represent incremental cancer fatalities induced by releases,
determined using the ISCORS estimates of 6x10-4 fatalities per person-rem for the
general population (DOE 2002). The health effects estimators are based on a linear,
non-threshold model relating health effects and effective dose. This means that health
effects decrease as the dose decreases down to zero, rather than assuming a threshold
dose below which there would be no health effects. The probability of incurring a health
effect is estimated for each individual in the exposed population and then the
probabilities summed over the population; an estimate of the total health effects in the
population results.
Table 4-4 presents a summary of DOE’s risk assessment of radiological consequences
given an accident with a release for each of the mission phases. The radiological
consequences were estimated by mission phase in terms of both the mean and 99th
percentile values. The 99th percentile radiological consequence is the value predicted to
be exceeded 1 percent of the time for an accident with a release.
The radiological consequences summarized in Table 4-4 are proportional to the source
terms listed in Table 4-3. Key results for the mean estimates are summarized below; the
corresponding 99th percentile estimates can be found in Table 4-4.
Should the mission be delayed, the proposed Mars 2020 mission would be launched
during the next available launch opportunity in August through September 2022. Since
this launch period is in a similar season as the 2020 launch period, the projected
radiological impacts associated with releases from the MMRTG (Alternative 1) would be
similar to those associated with the 2020 launch, with only a small increase in
population impacts due to population growth. Thus, within the overall uncertainties, the
radiological impacts associated with a 2022 launch would be the same as those for the
proposed 2020 launch. This similarity in impacts for a 2020 and a 2022 mission launch
applies to the impacts associated with releases from LWRHUs (Alternative 3).
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
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4. Environmental Consequences
Early Launch
-6
On-Pad Explosion Very Unlikely (8.3x10 ) 0.024 0.040 0.11 0.19 2.9 4.9
-6
FSII Very Unlikely (3.2x10 ) 0.11 1.9 0.52 8.9 13 230
-6
Stage2/SV Very Unlikely (1.8x10 ) 0.079 0.93 0.38 4.5 9.7 110
-8
SVII Extremely Unlikely (3.4x10 ) 0.051 0.59 0.25 2.9 6.3 73
-5
Low Altitude FTS Very Unlikely (7.5x10 ) 0.062 0.63 0.30 3.0 7.6 77
-5
1: Overall Phase 1 Very Unlikely (8.8x10 ) 0.060 0.65 0.29 3.1 7.4 79
-6 -5 -5
2: Late Launch Very Unlikely (7.7x10 ) 1.6x10 0.0002 7.8x10 0.0011 0.0020 0.029
-5
3: Suborbital Very Unlikely (1.5x10 ) 0.043 0.95 0.20 4.6 5.2 120
-4
4: Orbital Unlikely (2.6X10 ) 0.0005 0.0063 0.0026 0.030 0.066 0.77
-8
5: Long-term Reentry Extremely Unlikely (9.4x10 ) 0.0008 0.0080 0.0038 0.038 0.097 0.98
(d) -4
Overall Mission Unlikely (3.8x10 ) 0.016 0.35 0.076 1.7 1.9 43
Source: SNL 2014
(a) The table presents a composite of the results for the Atlas V 551 and the Delta IV Heavy, determined by taking the probability-weighted value of the two sets of results, treating the
conditional probability of having a given launch vehicle as 0.5.
(b) Based on ISCOR health effects recommendation of 6x10-4 health effects per person-rem for the general population.
(c ) Land area contaminated above 0.2 µCi/m2; 1 km2 = 0.386 mi2.
(d) Overall mission values weighted by total probability of release for each mission phase.
Notes: Differences in multiplications and summations are due to rounding of results as reported in SNL 2014. Probability categories, i.e., unlikely, very unlikely, defined by NASA.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
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4. Environmental Consequences
18
An average of about 0.31 rem per year for an individual in the United States from natural sources.
Man-made sources add an additional 0.060 to 0.31 rem. The dominant man-made contribution is from
medical radiological diagnosis and therapy. See Section 3.2.6 for further information.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
A less likely outcome of a Phase 1 accident involves failure of some or all of the
FTS elements to perform properly. This could lead to ground impact of the
spacecraft (with the MMRTG inside) still attached to other launch vehicle stages
(Stages 1 and 2, or Stage 2). Since this would require multiple failures of safety
systems, such ground impact configurations leading to a release are very
unlikely, with an estimated probability of 5.0 x10-6 (1 in 200,000). However,
because the MMRTG could impact the ground within the spacecraft at high
speed, the potential for more severe mechanical damage and exposure to
burning liquid and, possibly, solid propellant, could result in higher source terms.
In the more severe impact configurations leading to the largest estimated
releases, such as the FSII, mean exposures as high as about 0.11 rem (110
millirem) to the maximum exposed individual might occur. This dose is about a
third of the dose an individual might receive annually from natural background
radiation. Assuming no mitigation action, such as sheltering, radiation doses to
the potentially exposed population are predicted to result in an estimated 0.52
mean health effects. An estimated area of nearly 13 km2 (about 5.0 mi2) might be
contaminated above 0.2 μCi/m2. Detectable levels below 0.2 μCi/m2 would be
expected over a larger area.
Phase 2 (Late Launch): The total probability of a release in Phase 2,
categorized as very unlikely, is estimated to be 7.7x10-6 (or 1 in 130,000).
Accidents in this phase result in smaller releases and impacts than in any other
phase. The mean maximum individual dose is estimated to be 1.6x10-5 rem
(0.016 millirem), a very small fraction of the dose an individual might receive
annually from natural background radiation.
Assuming no mitigation action, such as sheltering, the radiation dose to the
potentially exposed population is predicted to result in 7.8x10-5 mean health
effects among the potentially exposed population over the long term.
The risk assessment indicates that about 0.002 km2 (about 0.0008 mi2) could be
contaminated above 0.2 μCi/m2.
Phase 3 (Suborbital): The total probability of a release in Phase 3, categorized
as very unlikely, is estimated to be 1.5x10-5 (or 1 in 68,000). Mean consequences
are estimated to be 0.043 rem (43 millirem) for maximum individual dose, 0.20
health effects among the potentially exposed population, and 5.2 km2 (about 2.0
mi2) could be contaminated above 0.2 μCi/m2.
Phase 4 (Orbital): The total probability of a release in Phase 4, categorized as
very unlikely, is estimated to be 2.6x10-4 (or 1 in 3,800). Mean consequences are
estimated to be 0.0005 rem (0.5 millirem) for the maximum individual dose,
0.0026 health effects among the potentially exposed population, and 0.066 km2
(about 0.025 mi2) could be contaminated above 0.2 μCi/m2.
Phase 5 (Long-term Reentry): The total probability of a release in Phase 5,
categorized as extremely unlikely, is estimated to be 9.4x10-8 (or 1 in
11,000,000). Mean consequences are estimated to be 0.0008 rem (0.8 millirem)
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4. Environmental Consequences
for the maximum individual dose, 0.0038 health effects among the potentially
exposed population, and 0.097 km2 (about 0.037 mi2) could be contaminated
above 0.2 μCi/m2.
4.1.4.6. Discussion of the Results
Maximum Individual Doses
The maximum individual dose is the maximum dose delivered to a single individual for
each accident. During Phase 1, the predicted mean radiation dose to the maximally
exposed individual ranges from about 0.024 rem (24 millirem) for the on-pad explosion
launch area accident up to about 0.11 rem (110 millirem) for a very unlikely FSII in
combination with burning solid propellant. No near-term radiological effects would be
expected from any of these exposures. The dose to the maximally exposed individual
for the FSII is the largest single maximally exposed individual dose for any phase. Each
exposure would increase the statistical likelihood of a health effect. It should be noted
that the prediction of doses to the maximally exposed individual is subject to large
variations and uncertainties in the locations of individuals, meteorological conditions,
periods of exposure, and dispersion modeling.
Population Exposures
Impacts to downwind populations that might be exposed to releases following an
accident are estimated by first calculating the collective dose to that population. This is
simply the sum of the radiation dose received by all individuals exposed to radiation
from a given release. These collective doses are assumed to result in the potential for
health effects among the potentially exposed population following an accident. The
health effects induced by releases are calculated using the methods described above in
Section 4.1.4.5. The consequences discussed below have been estimated considering
impacts to both the local population and the global population. Because of a variety of
factors, principally involving meteorological conditions at the time of launch and the
amount and particle size distribution of any PuO2 released, not all persons in the
affected regions would be exposed to a release.
Prior to launch, most problems that could potentially lead to an accident would be
mitigated by safety systems and procedures that would lead to safe hold or termination
of the launch countdown. After launch, most significant problems would lead to
activation of the FTS, which would result in the destruction of all of the vehicle stages.
This would lead to the spacecraft or portions thereof, including possibly the rover with
attached MMRTG, the MMRTG alone, or free GPHS modules, falling to the ground,
where it could be subject to ground impact mechanical damage and potential exposure
to burning solid propellant. The probability for this scenario with a release is 7.5x10-5 (or
1 in 13,000). Assuming no mitigation actions, such as sheltering and exclusion of
people from contaminated land areas, the radiation dose to the potentially exposed
population is predicted to result in less than one additional health effect over the long
term. The mean estimate for this release scenario is 0.30 health effects.
Even for the very and extremely unlikely launch area accidents, mean releases are not
significantly higher than for the most probable accident and release. Assuming no
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
mitigation actions (e.g., sheltering), estimated mean health effects range from a low of
less than 0.11 to a high of 0.52. As with the maximum individual dose, the largest
population dose is associated with a phase 1 release. In the event of a launch area
accident, it is unlikely that any given racial, ethnic, or socioeconomic group of the
population would bear a disproportionate share of the consequences.
Impacts of Radiological Releases on the Environment
The environmental impacts of the postulated accidents include the potential for PuO 2 to
be released to the environment, resulting in land and surface water contamination. The
health and environmental impacts associated with plutonium-238 in the environment
were addressed extensively in the EISs for previous NASA missions that used RTGs,
including the Galileo, Ulysses, Cassini, New Horizons and Mars Science Laboratory
missions (NASA 1989, NASA 1990, NASA 1995, NASA 1997, NASA 2005, NASA
2006). Each of these documents identified the potential for launch area accidents
contaminating land areas. These EISs referenced evaluations of the potential impacts of
PuO2 releases on natural vegetation, wetlands, agricultural land, urban areas, inland
water, the ocean, and other global areas. Based on these previous analyses, the
potential impacts of plutonium releases from the launch area accidents on the
environment are discussed in Appendix B.
The affected environment, described in Section 3 of this FEIS, includes the regional
area near CCAFS and the global area. Launch area accidents (Phases 0 and 1) would
initially release material into the regional area, defined in this FEIS to be within 100 km
(62 mi) of the launch pad. Since some of the accidents result in the release of very fine
particles (less than a micron in diameter), a portion of such releases could be
transported beyond 100 km (62 mi) and become well mixed in the troposphere, and
thus affecting the global environment. Releases during Phase 3 could involve reentering
GPHS modules that could impact the ground in southern Africa. Releases during
Phase 4 could affect the environment anywhere between 29° north and 29° south
latitude. Releases during phase 5 could nominally affect the environment anywhere on
Earth, but only when the spacecraft impacts land.
Potential environmental contamination was evaluated in terms of areas exceeding
various screening levels (0.1 and 0.2 μCi/m2), and dose-rate related criteria (15, 25, and
100 millirem per year) considered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA),
the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and DOE in evaluating the need for land cleanup
following radioactive contamination.
The risk assessment for this FEIS uses the 0.2 μCi/m2 screening level (a screening
level used in prior NASA environmental documentation (e.g., NASA 1989, NASA 1997,
NASA 2002b, NASA 2005)) as an indicator of the extent of land area contaminated due
to a release of PuO2 from a potential launch accident. The results are summarized in
Table 4-4. The area of land contaminated above the EPA lifetime-risk criterion,
associated with an average annual dose rate criterion of 15 mrem/yr, could be higher or
lower than the land area contaminated above the 0.2 μCi/m 2 level in the first year
following the release, depending on the particle size distribution of the release and the
potential for resuspension. The resuspension contribution to dose assumes that no
mitigation measures are taken.
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4. Environmental Consequences
DOE's risk assessment indicates that for the most likely type of launch area accidents
with a release, (that is the intentional destruction of all the vehicle stages) would result
in about 7.6 km2 (about 2.9 mi2) being contaminated above 0.2 μCi/m2. The risk
assessment also indicates that in at least one very unlikely ground impact configuration,
FSII with a total estimated probability of 3.2 x10-6 (one in 310,000), a mean area of 13
km2 (about 5.0 mi2) could be contaminated above 0.2 μCi/m2. Detectable levels below
0.2 μCi/m2 would be expected over an even larger area.
Land areas contaminated at levels above 0.2 μCi/m2 would potentially need further
action, such as monitoring or cleanup. Costs associated with cleanup efforts, as well as
continued monitoring activities, could vary widely depending upon the characteristics of
the contaminated area. These costs do not include costs of government oversight,
management or administration nor litigation costs. Indirect costs could double the cost
per unit area. Potential cost estimating factors for decontamination (cleanup) of various
land types are summarized in Table 4-5. These cost factors address a wide variety of
possible actions, including land acquisition, waste disposal, site restoration, and final
surveys of remediated sites.
Table 4-5. Potential Land Decontamination Cost Factors
Cost Factor in 2014 Dollars
2 2
Land Type Cost per km Cost per mi
Farmlands $112 million $291 million
a. Mixed use urban area applicable to a U.S. city of approximately 100,000 population. Costs
are not applicable to downtown business districts, heavy industrial areas, or high-rise apartment
buildings.
In addition to the potential direct costs of radiological surveys, monitoring, and potential
cleanup following an accident, there are potential secondary societal costs associated
with the decontamination and mitigation activities with the very unlikely, potentially
higher consequence launch area accidents. Those costs could include, but may not be
limited to:
temporary or longer term relocation of residents;
temporary or longer term loss of employment;
destruction or quarantine of agricultural products, including citrus crops;
land use restrictions (which could affect real estate values, tourism and
recreational activities);
restriction or bans on commercial fishing; and
public health effects and medical care.
As indicated in Table 4-5, costs for farmland decontamination have been identified. In
addition to the costs of decontamination, there is the potential that the contamination of
crops would require additional mitigation measures. These actions could be required to
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
prevent contaminated foodstuffs from being consumed by the public. In the case of
plutonium dioxide contamination, the preventive measures could include the collection
and disposal of contaminated crops. The Food and Drug Administration has established
Derived Intervention Levels (DILs) (FDA 1998) designed to limit the dose to an
individual from consuming contaminated foodstuff. These DILs identify recommended
levels of contamination above which individuals consuming the contaminated foodstuff
would receive an unacceptable dose. The DIL varies depending upon the receptor (the
individual consuming the foodstuff) primarily based upon the age of the individual. In the
case of plutonium-238, the limiting DIL (that is, the lowest allowable concentration) of
2.5 Bq/kg 19 (FDA 1998) is the DIL for infants.
As a part of the Nuclear Risk Assessment, DOE performed an analysis to determine the
extent of cropland that could be contaminated to levels in excess of this DIL. The
analysis used the same accident and meteorological data used in the NRA to address
the release and dispersal of plutonium dioxide in the event of an accident, i.e., the same
accident conditions, release quantities, and weather data. In addition, the analysis
considered the following items:
The acreage of land used as farmland (and the fraction of land used for each
crop type (leafy vegetables, fruit, pasture, etc.),
The types of crops grown in Florida and in the KSC area,
The quantities of each crop type grown, and
The fraction of plutonium dioxide deposited on cropland that would be deposited
on or absorbed by each crop type.
The results of this analysis indicated that for all phases and for all accidents, the area
contaminated above the DIL is consistently more than 50 times lower than (less than 2
percent) the area contaminated at or above the 0.2 μCi/m2 level that are shown in Table
4-4. For example, in assessing the Phase 1 accident with Low Altitude FTS, DOE
calculated that the DIL value of 2.5 Bq/kg would be exceeded in an area of 0.13 km 2
(0.05 mi2 or about 32 acres). This is the mean value for the cropland area where some
mitigation measures could be required to limit the public health impact from the
consumption of food contaminated by a release from this accident. The 99 th percentile
area would be 1.35 km2 (0.52 mi2 or 330 acres). These values are less than 2% of the
calculated land contamination area using the 0.2 µCi/m2 criteria (See Table 4-4) (SNL
2014).
The Price-Anderson Act of 1957, as amended (42 U.S.C. 2210), established a system
of financial protection for persons who may be liable for and persons who may be
injured in the event of a nuclear incident arising out of activities conducted by or on
behalf of the DOE. The Price-Anderson Act is incorporated into the Atomic Energy Act
of 1954, as amended (42 U.S.C. 2011 et seq.). A "nuclear incident" is defined under the
19
A Becquerel (Bq) is the activity of a quantity of radioactive material in which one nucleus decays per
2
second. One curie is equal to 37,000 million Bq. The land contamination criteria of 0.2 microcuries/m is
2
equivalent to 7.4 Bq/m .
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4. Environmental Consequences
Since the health effects resulting from a release equals the sum of the probability of a
health effect for each individual in the exposed population, risk can also be interpreted
as the total probability of one health effect given the mission. The overall radiological
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
risk for the Mars 2020 mission is estimated to be 2.6x10-5. Thus, the total probability of
one health effect for the Proposed Action (Alternative 1) is about 1 in 39,000.
The risk contribution from Phase 1 accidents, 2.5x10-5 (or a probability of about 1 in
40,000 that a health effect will occur), represents 87 percent of the radiological risk for
the Mars 2020 mission. The primary contributors to the Phase 1 risk in order of
significance are (1) Low Altitude FTS, (2) FSII, and (3) On-Pad Explosion. Phase 3
contributes 10 percent of the overall mission risk, due primarily to releases from GPHS
modules impacting hard surfaces (e.g., rock) following suborbital reentry and possibly
other impact configurations up to and including the spacecraft.
The contributions to risk within 100 km (62 mi) of the launch site and in the global area
are summarized in Table 4-7. The launch area risk is about 57 percent of the overall
mission risk, while the risk to global areas is 43 percent. The launch area risks are due
entirely from accidents during Phases 0 and 1, with Phase 1 being the primary
contributor. The global risks are due to accidents in all mission phases, with Phase 1
being the primary contributor due to the atmospheric transport of small particles beyond
100 km from the launch site.
Table 4-7. MMRTG Health Effect Mission Risk Contributions by Affected Region
Mission Risks
(a) (b) (c)
Mission Phase Launch Area Global Total
-9 -9 -8
0: Pre-Launch 8.9x10 5.9x10 1.5x10
-5 -6 -5
1: Early Launch 1.7x10 8.9x10 2.5x10
-10 -10
2: Late Launch — 6.0x10 6.0x10
-6 -6
3: Suborbital — 3.0x10 3.0x10
-7 -7
4: Orbital — 6.8x10 6.8x10
-10 -10
5: Long-term Reentry — 3.6x10 3.6x10
-5 -5 -5
Overall Mission 1.7x10 1.3x10 2.9x10
Source: SNL 2014
(a) The table presents a composite of the results for the Atlas V 551 and the Delta IV Heavy, determined
by taking the probability-weighted value of the two sets of results, treating the conditional probability of
having a given launch vehicle as 0.5.
(b) Phases 0 and 1: within 100 km (62 mi) of the launch site.
(c) Phase 3: southern Africa; Phase 4: land impacts between 29° north and 29° south latitude.
Note: Differences in summations may be due to rounding
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4. Environmental Consequences
Even those individuals within the exposed population, such as those very close to the
launch area that might receive the highest exposures, would face very small risks. The
risk to the maximally exposed individual within the launch-area and global populations
(Table 4-8) is estimated to be less than 1 in 300 million for the Mars 2020 mission. Most
people in the potentially exposed population would have much lower risks.
Table 4-8. MMRTG Maximum Individual Risk
(a)
Mission Phase Release Probability Maximum Individual Maximum Individual
(b), (c)
Dose, (rem) Risk
-5 -12
0: Pre-Launch Very Unlikely (1.1x10 ) 0.00029 1.9x10
-5 -9
1: Early Launch Very Unlikely (8.8x10 ) 0.060 3.2x10
-6 -5 -14
2: Late Launch Very Unlikely (7.7x10 ) 1.6x10 7.6x10
-5 -10
3: Suborbital Very Unlikely (1.5x10 ) 0.043 3.8 x10
-4 -11
4: Orbital Unlikely (2.6X10 ) 0.0005 8.5 x10
-8 -14
5: Long-term Reentry Extremely Unlikely (9.4x10 ) 0.0008 4.5 x10
(a) A composite of the results for the Atlas V 551 and the Delta IV Heavy, determined by taking the probability-weighted value of
the two sets of results, treating the conditional probability of having a given launch vehicle as 0.5.
(b) Determined as the product of total probability of release, maximum individual dose (mean value) and a health effects
estimator of 6x10-4 latent cancer fatalities per rem.
(c) The individuals associated with the maximum individual risk in Phase 0 and 1 are assumed to be the same individual, so the
two risks are additive. The individuals associated with the maximum individual risk in Phases 3, 4, and 5 would not be the
same individual due to different global regions potentially affected.
Probability categories (i.e., unlikely, very unlikely) as defined by NASA.
The individual risk estimates are small compared to other risks. For example, Table 4-9
presents information on annual individual fatality risks to residents of the United States
due to various types of hazards. This data indicates that in 2010 the average individual
risk of accidental death in the United States was about 1 in 2,600 per year, while the
average individual risk of death due to any disease, including cancer, was about 1 in
140.
4.1.4.8. Uncertainty
An uncertainty analysis to estimate uncertainties in probabilities, source terms,
radiological consequences, and mission risks has not been performed as part of this
report. Based on experience with uncertainty analyses in the risk assessment of
previous missions (e.g., for the Cassini, Mars Exploration Rover, New Horizons, and
Mars Science Laboratory missions), the uncertainty in the estimated mission risk for the
Mars 2020 mission can be approximated. The Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR)
analysis for those missions indicate that the uncertainty is dominated by the uncertainty
associated with the launch vehicle accident probabilities. The 5 th and 95th percentile
accident probabilities are about a factor of 25 lower and higher, respectively, than the
accident median probabilities.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Very Unlikely
-6
Legal Intervention 412 1.33 x 10 1 in 750,000
-6
All Weather 490 1.59 x 10 1 in 630,000
-6
Accidental Discharge of Firearms 606 1.96 x 10 1 in 510,000
-6
Water, Air and Space Transport 1,600 5.18 x 10 1 in 190,000
Accidents (includes unspecified
transport accidents)
-6
Accidental Exposure to Smoke, Fires 2,782 9.01 x 10 1 in 110,000
and Flames
-5
Accidental Drowning and Submersion 3,782 1.22 x 10 1 in 82,000
-5
All Fatal Injuries at Work 4,690 1.52 x 10 1 in 66,000
-5
Assault (Homicide) 16,259 5.27 x 10 1 in 19,000
-5
Alcohol-induced deaths 25,692 8.32 x 10 1 in 12,000
-5
Falls 26,009 8.42 x 10 1 in 12,000
-4
Accidental Poisoning and Exposure to 33,041 1.07 x 10 1 in 9,300
Noxious Substances
-4
Motor Vehicle 35,332 1.14 x 10 1 in 8,700
-4
Suicide 38,364 1.24 x 10 1 in 8,000
-4
Drug-induced deaths 40,393 1.31 x 10 1 in 7,600
-4
All Accidents 120,859 3.91 x 10 1 in 2,600
Unlikely
-3
All Diseases 2,254,585 7.30 x 10 1 in 140
-3
All Causes 2,468,435 7.99 x 10 1 in 125
Sources: USBC 2013b, BLS 2013, NOAA 2013, HHS 2013.
Note: The census population of the United States for the year 2010 was 308,745,538.
The Mars 2020 mission risk estimate of 2.9x10-5 (or a probability of about 1 in 34,000
that a health effect would occur) can be treated as the median of the uncertainty
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4. Environmental Consequences
probability distribution (i.e., it is equally probable that the mission risk could be higher or
lower than this value). The mission risks at the 5th and 95th percent confidence levels
are then estimated to be 1.2x10-6 (or a probability of about 1 in 860,000 that a health
effect will occur) and 7.3x10-4 (or a probability of about 1 in 1,400 that a health effect will
occur), respectively.
4.1.5 Radiological Contingency Response Planning
Prior to launch of the Mars 2020 mission, a comprehensive set of plans would be
developed by NASA to ensure that any launch accident could be met with a well-
developed and tested response. NASA's plans would be developed in accordance with
the National Response Framework (NRF) (DHS 2013) and the NRF Nuclear/
Radiological Incident Annex (DHS 2008) in coordination with DOE and other Federal
agencies, the state of Florida, Brevard County, and local governmental organizations.
These organizations, as needed, could be involved in response to a radiological
emergency. (Scott 2012).
.Radiological emergency response plans would be exercised prior to launch to verify
that response interfaces, command channels, and field response organizations would
be prepared to respond in the event of a launch accident. As described by the NRF –
Nuclear/Radiological Incident Annex, NASA, as the coordinating agency would have full
access to the coordinated federal response
To manage the radiological contingency response, NASA would establish a radiological
emergency response capability that would include a radiological assessment and
command center, as well as field monitoring assets deployed both onsite and offsite
prior to launch. The assessment and command center would be the focal point for
NASA and DHS coordination efforts. This center would also be used to coordinate the
initial Federal response to a radiological contingency until the Mars 2020 spacecraft has
left Earth orbit. Pre-deployed assets to support a response to a potential launch
accident would include representation from NASA, appropriate federal agencies), the
state of Florida, and Brevard County. The center would issue appropriate direction to
KSC/CCAFS personnel and coordinate messaging and recommended actions with
State and local emergency response organizations responding to the accident, to
minimize potential exposures.
For accidents outside United States jurisdiction, NASA and DHS would assist the DOS
in coordinating the United States’ response via diplomatic channels and in deploying
Federal resources as requested. If impact of the Mars 2020 spacecraft occurs in the
ocean following an accident, NASA would coordinate with the DHS, the U.S. Coast
Guard, the U.S. Navy, and DOE to initiate security measures and assess the feasibility
of search and retrieval operations. Efforts to recover the MMRTG or its components
would be based on an assessment of technical feasibility and consideration of any
potential health hazards presented to recovery personnel and potential environmental
impacts.
4.2 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ALTERNATIVE 2
With Alternative 2, NASA would discontinue preparations for the Proposed Action
(Alternative 1) and implement an alternative Mars 2020 mission. The alternative Mars
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2020 mission would include an autonomous rover that would perform science
operations on the surface of Mars. Instead of an MMRTG, a solar array would provide
the necessary electric power to operate the Mars 2020 rover and its science
instruments.
The non-radiological impacts for this alternative would be identical to those described
for Alternative 1 and are addressed in Sections 4.2.1 through 4.2.3.
4.2.1 Environmental Consequences of Preparing for Launch
With Alternative 2, the potential environmental consequences of preparing for launch
would be the same as those described in Section 4.1.1 for the Proposed Action, with the
exception that some spacecraft and launch vehicle integration personnel would not be
exposed to radiation from the MMRTG during pre-launch testing and integration, since a
radioisotope power system, the MMRTG, would not be used as the source of electrical
power for the Alternative 2 Mars 2020 rover.
4.2.2 Environmental Impacts of a Normal Launch
With Alternative 2, the primary environmental impacts of a normal launch of the Mars
2020 mission would be the same as those described in Section 4.1.2 for the Proposed
Action (Alternative 1).
4.2.3 Non-radiological Environmental Impacts of Potential Accidents
With Alternative 2, the environmental non-radiological impacts of potential accidents
would be the same as those described in Section 4.1.3 for the Proposed Action
(Alternative 1).
4.2.4 Radiological Environmental Impacts of Potential Accidents
Implementation of Alternative 2 would not involve any potential radiological
environmental impacts from launch accidents.
4.3 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ALTERNATIVE 3
In Alternative 3, NASA would discontinue preparations for the Proposed Action
(Alternative 1) and implement an alternative Mars 2020 mission. The alternative Mars
2020 mission would include an autonomous rover that would perform science
operations on the surface of Mars. A solar array would provide the necessary electric
power to operate the Mars 2020 rover and its science instruments. In addition, the
power from the solar array would be augmented by up to 71 LWRHUs. These LWRHUs
would be used to provide thermal power to maintain the internal temperature of the
rover within the required limits to ensure equipment and instrumentation survivability.
The non-radiological impacts for this alternative would be identical to those identified for
the Proposed Action (Alternative 1) and are addressed in Sections 4.3.1 through 4.3.3.
Environmental impacts of potential accidents involving the release of PuO2 from the
LWRHUs for the rover powered by a solar array augmented with LWRHUs are
addressed in Section 4.3.4.
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4. Environmental Consequences
This section summarizes the results from the DOE's nuclear risk assessment (SNL
2014) for the solar-powered rover with LWRHUs.
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4. Environmental Consequences
-3 -3
High Altitude FTS - - 3.6x10 - - - 3.6x10
-2 -2
Sub-Orbital Reentry - - - 1.3x10 - - 1.3x10
-3 -3
Orbital Reentry - - - - 4.7x10 - 4.7x10
-6 -6
Long Term - - - - - 1.0x10 1.0x10
-6 -3 -3 -2 -3 -6 -2
Total 3.3 x10 3.1x10 3.6x10 1.3x10 4.7x10 1.0x10 2.5x10
Source: SNL 2014
Note: This is a composite of the accident end state probabilities for the Atlas V 551 and the Delta IV Heavy, determined by taking the
probability-weighted value of the two sets of results, treating the conditional probability of having a given launch vehicle as 0.5.
For this FEIS, the probabilities of an accident with a release of PuO2 are grouped into
categories that allow for a descriptive characterization of the likelihood of each accident.
The categories and their associated probability ranges are:
unlikely: 10-2 to 10-4 (1 in 100 to 1 in 10 thousand);
very unlikely: 10-4 to 10-6 (1 in 10 thousand to 1 in 1 million); and
extremely unlikely: less than 10-6 (less than 1 in 1 million).
The potential accident environments associated with accidents include blast (explosion
overpressure), fragments, thermal energy (burning liquid propellant and/or solid
propellant), reentry conditions (aerodynamic loads and heating), and surface impact. A
given accident could involve one or more sequential and/or simultaneously occurring
accident environments. The nature and severity of such environments would be a
function of the type of accident and its timing (relative to launch) of occurrence.
4.3.4.3. LWRHU Response to Accident Environments
Most launch accidents in Phases 0, 1, and 3 would lead to intact impact of various
SV/launch vehicle configurations. The resulting impact could lead to mechanical
damage of the LWRHU aeroshell, depending on the orientation at impact, and
subsequent exposure to burning solid propellant. This, in turn, could potentially lead to
PuO2 releases from the fire. In addition, impact by large pieces of LV or SV debris could
lead to some mechanical release of PuO2.
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Phase 2 results in water impact and no release. For Phases 4 and 5 of the mission,
accidents could lead to reentry heating and ground impact environments. The LWRHU
is designed to survive the reentry environments and subsequent surface impacts. No
clad melt, eutectic formation with graphitics, or release is expected from impact
following orbital or suborbital reentry.
4.3.4.4. Accident Probabilities and Source Terms
In the nuclear risk assessment, DOE evaluated each of the identified end states and
estimated the accident environments to which the LWRHUs would likely be exposed.
From that information, conditional probabilities that a release would occur and estimated
source terms were developed based on the known response of LWRHUs to various
accident conditions.
As discussed earlier, the probability of a launch accident involving any release of PuO 2
is very small, approximately 1 in 15,000. The most severe accident environments would
occur during launch area accidents that might expose the LWRHUs to mechanical
impacts, explosion overpressures and fragments, and fire environments from burning
liquid and solid propellants.
A summary of the accident and source term probabilities by mission phase, along with
mean and 99th percentile source terms, is presented in Table 4-11. For the purpose of
this FEIS, "source term" is defined as that portion of the release that becomes airborne
and could be transported downwind.
The 99th percentile source term is the value predicted to be exceeded with a probability
of 0.01 (1 in 100), given a release in an accident. In this context, the 99th percentile
value reflects the potential for higher radionuclide releases at lower probabilities. The
99th percentile releases are up to 36 times the mean estimates reported in this FEIS, but
at probabilities of a factor of 100 lower than the mean probabilities. Essential features of
the results are summarized below.
Phase 0 (Pre-Launch): During the pre-launch period, prior to ignition of the
Stage 1 liquid rocket engine, most initiating failures result in a mission abort.
Those failures that result in on-pad accidents could result in a release at a total
probability of 3.1x10-7 (1 in 3,200,000). The mean source term, given that an
accident with a release has occurred, is estimated to be 3.0 Ci.
Phase 1 (Early Launch): During Phase 1, during which land impacts, including
near the launch complex, are likely, the accidents resulting in a release have a
total probability estimate of 6.2x10-5 (or 1 in 16,000). The mean source term,
given an accident with a release has occurred, is estimated to be 4.1 Ci.
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4. Environmental Consequences
Table 4-11. Alternative 3: Summary of Accident Probabilities and LWRHU Source Terms
(c)
Source Term, Ci Conditional Source Term , Ci
(a) (given an accident) Probability Total Probability of (given a release)
Mission Phase Accident Probability
99
th of Release a Release 99
th
(b)
Mean Percentile Mean Percentile
0: Pre-Launch Very Unlikely (3.3x10-6) 0.28 5.0 0.093 Extremely Unlikely (3.1x10-7) 3.0 21
1: Early Launch
On-Pad Explosion Very Unlikely (9.8x10-5) 0.16 2.7 0.12 Very Unlikely (1.2x10-5) 1.3 3.2
FSII Very Unlikely (2.2x10-5) 8.1 270 0.13 Very Unlikely (3.0x10-6) 60 380
Stage 2/SV Very Unlikely (4.8x10-5) 0.020 0.84 0.017 Extremely Unlikely (8.0x10-7) 1.2 5.1
SVII Extremely Unlikely (6.3x10-7) 0.062 2.0 0.047 Extremely Unlikely (2.9x10-8) 1.3 4.3
Low Altitude FTS Unlikely (2.9x10-3) 0.020 0.67 0.016 Very Unlikely (4.6x10-5) 1.3 6.1
Overall Phase 1 Unlikely (3.1x10-3) 0.082 0.89 0.020 Very Unlikely (6.2x10-5) 4.1 76
(a) A composite of the results for the Atlas V 551 and the Delta IV Heavy, determined by taking the probability-weighted value of the two sets of results, treating
the conditional probability of having a given launch vehicle as 0.5.
(b) The conditional probability of a release of PuO2 given that an accident has occurred.
(c ) Total source terms given. The source term is that portion of the release which becomes airborne would represent the amounts of PuO2 released that are no
more than 100 microns (100 micrometers) in diameter. Particles larger than this do not generally become airborne and would remain in the vicinity of the
accident.
(d) Overall mission values are weighted by the total probability of release for each mission phase.
Notes: Differences in multiplications and summations are due to rounding of results as reported in SNL 2014.
Probability categories (i.e., unlikely, very unlikely) as defined by NASA.
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4. Environmental Consequences
Most initiating failures occurring in Phase 1 would lead to activation of the FTS.
The elements of the FTS are highly redundant and reliable. As a result, the
expected outcome of a Phase 1 accident is ground impact of the spacecraft or
portions thereof, including possibly the rover with LWRHUs. In this case,
mechanical damage and, for an Atlas V 551 accident, potential exposure to
burning solid propellant could occur. The probability for this impact configuration
with a release is estimated to be 4.6x10-5 (or 1 in 22,000), with an estimated
mean source term, given an accident with a release has occurred, is estimated to
be 1.3 Ci).
A much less likely outcome of a Phase 1 accident involves failure of some or all
of the FTS elements to perform properly. This could lead to ground impact of the
spacecraft (with the LWRHUs inside) still attached to other launch vehicle stages
(Stages 1 and 2, or Stage 2). Since this would require multiple failures of safety
systems, such ground impact configurations leading to a release are very
unlikely. However, because the LWRHUs could impact the ground within the
spacecraft at higher velocities and with additional mass above the spacecraft due
to the attached Stage(s), the potential for more severe mechanical damage is
higher than with the expected accident conditions associated with normal
activation of the FTS.
In the impact configurations leading to the largest estimated releases, such as
the FSII, slightly larger estimated mean source terms, given an accident with a
release, of 60 Ci. Both of these events would fall in the very unlikely range.
Phase 2 (Late Launch): All accidents that could occur in Phase 2 lead to impact
of debris in the Atlantic Ocean with no release of PuO2.
Phase 3 (Suborbital): Accidents during Phase 3 include suborbital reentries.
Prior to the attainment of Earth park orbit these conditions could lead to prompt
suborbital reentry within minutes. This could result in impacts of the intact SV
entry vehicle and LWRHUs along the vehicle flight path over the Atlantic Ocean
and Africa. Additional suborbital land impacts are possible after crossing over
Africa, depending on the launch vehicle selected and its nominal mission
timeline. Should the SV impact land, releases are possible. The total probability
of release in Phase 3 is estimated to be 2.4x10-6 (or 1 in 420,000). The mean
source term, given an accident with a release, is estimated to be 1.2 Ci.
Phase 4 (Orbital): Accidents which occur after attaining parking orbit could result
in orbital decay reentries from minutes to years after the accident, affecting Earth
surfaces between approximately 29° north latitude and 29° south latitude. As
previously stated, the LWRHU is designed to survive reentry environments and
surface impacts. No releases are expected from accidents in this phase.
Phase 5 (Long-term Reentry): The potential exists for an inadvertent long-term
(hundreds to thousands of years) reentry should the SV be left in an Earth
crossing orbit. Based on considerations of long-term inadvertent reentry for other
missions, the probability of such an occurrence is estimated to be less than
1x10-6. As previously stated, the LWRHU is designed to survive reentry
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4. Environmental Consequences
percent of the time for an accident with a release. In this context, the 99th percentile
value reflects the potential for higher radiological consequences to the exposed
population at lower probabilities. The 99th percentile consequences are one to less than
42 times the mean estimates reported in this FEIS, but at probabilities of a factor of 100
lower than the mean probabilities.
The radiological consequences summarized in Table 4-12 are proportional to the source
terms listed in Table 4-11, except that the scaling factors vary with the type and nature
of the release. Key factors include the particle size distribution of the release, release
height, and energy of the release. The higher dose numbers are associated with very
small particles that might be released if the PuO2 were exposed to solid propellant fires.
The radiological dose per curie released is about ten times higher with the PuO2
exposed to solid propellant fires. Key results for the mean estimates are summarized
below; the corresponding 99th percentile estimates can be found in Table 4-12.
Phase 0 (Pre-Launch): The initiating failures that result in Phase 0 accident
configurations are extremely unlikely, having very low probabilities of occurrence.
The overall mean probability of a release is 3.1x10-7 (or 1 in 3,200,000) during
Phase 0. Most problems that arise during Phase 0 can be successfully mitigated
by safety systems and procedures leading to safe hold or termination of the
launch countdown.
If an accident were to occur during Phase 0, however, there is a potential for
measurable releases and contamination. The probability of the LWRHUs being
close to large pieces of burning solid propellant would be higher in Phase 0
accidents than in other phases. The mean maximum dose to an individual is
estimated to be approximately 0.003 rem (3 millirem), about one percent of the
dose an individual might receive annually from natural background radiation20.
Assuming no mitigation actions, such as sheltering and exclusion of people from
contaminated land areas, the radiation doses to the potentially exposed
population are predicted to result in 0.015 mean health effects among the
potentially exposed population.
For Phase 0 accidents with a release, the mean area contaminated above 0.2
microcuries per square meter (μCi/m2) (see Section 4.1.4.7) is estimated to be
about 0.37 km2 (about 0.14 mi2). Detectable levels below 0.2 μCi/m2 would be
expected over a larger area.
20
An average of about 0.31 rem per year for an individual in the United States from natural sources.
Man-made sources add an additional 0.060 to 0.31 rem. The dominant man-made contribution is from
medical radiological diagnosis and therapy. See Section 3.2.6 for further information.
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4. Environmental Consequences
Early Launch
-5
On-Pad Explosion Very Unlikely (1.2x10 ) 0.0013 0.0032 0.0063 0.016 0.16 0.39
-6
FSII Very Unlikely (3.0x10 ) 0.062 0.38 0.30 1.8 7.5 47
-7
Stage2/SV Extremely Unlikely (8.0x10 ) 0.0013 0.0052 0.0060 0.025 0.15 0.64
-8
SVII Extremely Unlikely (2.9x10 ) 0.0014 0.0044 0.0066 0.021 0.17 0.54
-5
Low Altitude FTS Very Unlikely (4.6x10 ) 0.0013 0.0062 0.0061 0.030 0.16 0.76
-5
1: Overall Phase 1 Very Unlikely (6.2x10 ) 0.0042 0.078 0.020 0.37 0.51 9.5
2: Late Launch — — — — — — —
-6
3: Suborbital Very Unlikely (2.4x10 ) 0.0013 0.0047 0.0060 0.022 0.15 0.57
4: Orbital — — — — — — —
5: Long-term Reentry — — — — — — —
(d) -5
Overall Mission Very Unlikely (6.5x10 ) 0.0041 0.075 0.020 0.36 0.50 9.1
Source: SNL 2014
(a) A composite of the results for the Atlas V 551 and the Delta IV Heavy, determined by taking the probability-weighted value of the two sets of results, treating the conditional probability of
having a given launch vehicle as 0.5.
(b) Based on ISCOR health effects recommendation of 6x10-4 health effects per person-rem for the general population.
(c ) Land area contaminated above 0.2 µCi/m2; 1 km2 = 0.386 mi2.
(d) Overall mission values weighted by total probability of release for each mission phase.
Notes: Differences in multiplications and summations are due to rounding of results as reported in SNL 2014. Probability categories (i.e., unlikely, very unlikely) as defined by NASA.
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Phase 4 (Orbital): There are no radioactive releases during this phase and,
therefore, no radiological consequences.
Phase 5 (Long-term Reentry): There are no radioactive releases during this
phase and, therefore, no radiological consequences.
4.3.4.6. Discussion of the Results
Maximum Individual Doses
The maximum individual dose is the maximum dose delivered to a single individual for
each accident. During Phase 1, the predicted mean radiation dose to the maximally
exposed individual ranges from about 0.0013 rem (1.3 millirem) for the on-pad
explosion launch area accident up to about 0.062 rem (62 millirem) for a very unlikely
FSII in combination with burning solid propellant. This maximum individual dose is the
largest for any phase. No short-term radiological effects would be expected from any of
these exposures. Each exposure would increase the statistical likelihood of a health
effect. It should be noted that the prediction of doses to the maximally exposed
individual is subject to large variations and uncertainties in the locations of individuals,
meteorological conditions, periods of exposure, and dispersion modeling.
Population Exposures
Impacts to downwind populations that might be exposed to releases following an
accident are estimated by first calculating the collective dose to that population. This is
simply the sum of the radiation dose received by all individuals exposed to radiation
from a given release. These collective doses are assumed to result in the potential for
health effects among the potentially exposed population following an accident. The
health effects induced by releases are calculated using the methods described above in
Section 4.1.4.5. The consequences discussed below have been estimated considering
impacts to both the local population and the global population. Because of a variety of
factors, principally involving meteorological conditions at the time of launch and the
amount and particle size distribution of any PuO2 released, not all persons in the
affected regions would be exposed to a release.
Prior to launch, most problems that could potentially lead to an accident would be
mitigated by safety systems and procedures that would lead to safe hold or termination
of the launch countdown. After launch, most significant problems would lead to
activation of the FTS, which would result in the destruction of all of the vehicle stages.
This would lead to the spacecraft or portions thereof, including possibly the rover with
LWRHUs, falling to the ground, where it could be subject to ground impact mechanical
damage and potential exposure to burning solid propellant. The probability for this
scenario with a release is 4.6x10-5 (or 1 in 22,000). Assuming no mitigation actions,
such as sheltering and exclusion of people from contaminated land areas, the radiation
dose to the potentially exposed population is predicted to result in less than one
additional health effect over the long term. The mean estimate for this release scenario
is 0.0062 health effects.
Even for the very and extremely unlikely launch area accidents, mean releases are not
significantly higher than for the most probable accident and release. Assuming no
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4. Environmental Consequences
mitigation actions, such as sheltering, estimated health effects range from a low of less
than 0.0063 to a high of 0.30. As with the maximum individual dose, the largest
population dose is associated with a Phase 1 FSII release.
In the event of a launch area accident, it is not likely that any given racial, ethnic, or
socioeconomic group of the population would bear a disproportionate share of the
consequences.
Impacts of Radiological Releases on the Environment
The environmental impacts of the postulated accidents include the potential for PuO2 to
be released to the environment, resulting in land and surface water contamination. The
affected environment, described in Section 3 of this FEIS, includes the regional area
near CCAFS and the global area. Launch area accidents (Phases 0 and 1) would
initially release material into the regional area, as defined in this FEIS, to be within 100
km (62 mi) of the launch pad. Since some of the accidents result in the release of very
fine particles (less than a micron in diameter), a portion of such releases could be
transported beyond 100 km (62 mi) and become well mixed in the troposphere, and
thus affect the global environment. Releases during Phase 3 could involve reentering
LWRHUs that could impact the ground in southern Africa. Releases during Phase 4
could affect the environment anywhere between 29° north and 29° south latitude.
The risk assessment for this FEIS uses the 0.2 μCi/m2 screening level (a screening
level used in prior NASA environmental documentation (e.g., NASA 1989, NASA 1997,
NASA 2002b, NASA 2005)) as an indicator of the extent of land area contaminated due
to a release of PuO2 from a potential launch accident. The results are summarized in
Table 4-12.
DOE's risk assessment indicates that for the most likely type of launch area accidents
with a release, the intentional destruction of all the vehicle stages would result in about
0.16 km2 (about 0.062 mi2) being contaminated above 0.2 μCi/m2. The risk assessment
also indicates that in at least one very unlikely ground impact configuration—FSII with a
total probability of release of 3.0x10-6 (or 1 in 330,000)—a mean area of 7.5 km2 (about
2.9 mi2) could be contaminated above 0.2 μCi/m2. Detectable levels below 0.2 μCi/m2
would be expected over an even larger area.
Land areas contaminated at levels above 0.2 μCi/m2 would potentially need further
action, such as monitoring or cleanup. Costs associated with these efforts, as well as
continued monitoring activities, could vary widely depending upon the characteristics of
the contaminated area. Potential cost estimating factors for decontamination of various
land types are summarized in Table 4-5. These cost factors address a wide variety of
possible actions, including land acquisition, waste disposal, site restoration, and final
surveys of remediated sites.
As indicated in Table 4-5 costs for farmland decontamination have been identified. In
addition to the costs of decontamination, there is the potential that the contamination of
crops would require additional mitigation measures. Actions could be required to
prevent contaminated foodstuffs from being consumed by the public. As discussed in
Section 4.1.4.6, DOE performed an assessment of the areas that might be
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
contaminated to the point that the FDA suggested DIL might be exceeded and
mitigation measures may be required.
The results of this analysis indicated that for all phases and for all accidents, the area
contaminated above the DIL is consistently more than 50 times lower than (less than 2
percent) the area contaminated at or above the 0.2 μCi/m2 level that are shown in Table
4-12. For example, in assessing the Phase 1 accident with Low Altitude FTS, DOE
calculated that the DIL value of 2.5 Bq/kg would be exceeded in an area of 0.0028 km2
(0.0011 mi2 or about 0.69 acres). This is the mean value for the cropland area where
some mitigation measures could be required to limit the public health impact from the
consumption of food contaminated by a release from this accident. The 99th percentile
area would be 0.013 km2 (0.0050 mi2 or 3.2 acres). These values are less than 2% of
the calculated land contamination area using the 0.2 µCi/m2 criteria (Table 4-12) (SNL
2014).
The Price-Anderson Act of 1957, as an amendment to the Atomic Energy Act of 1954
(42 U.S.C. 2210), establishes a system of financial protection for persons who may be
liable for and persons who may be injured in the event of a nuclear incident arising out
of activities conducted by or on behalf of the DOE. A "nuclear incident" is defined under
the Atomic Energy Act as “any occurrence, including an extraordinary nuclear
occurrence, within the United States causing, within or outside the United States, bodily
injury, sickness, disease, or death, or loss of or damage to property, or loss of use of
property, arising out of or resulting from the radioactive, toxic, explosive, other
hazardous properties of source, special nuclear or byproduct material…" (42 U.S.C.
2014 (q)). In the case of the Mars 2020 mission, DOE retains title to and responsibility
for the LWRHUs. In the event that an accident were to occur resulting in release of
PuO2 from the LWRHUs, affected property owners would be eligible compensation for
damages to or loss of property arising from the nuclear incident in accordance with the
provisions of the Price-Anderson Act.
In addition to the potential direct costs of radiological surveys, monitoring, and potential
cleanup following an accident, there are potential secondary societal costs associated
with the decontamination and mitigation activities with the very unlikely, potentially
higher consequence launch area accidents. Those costs could include, but may not be
limited to:
temporary or longer term relocation of residents;
temporary or longer term loss of employment;
destruction or quarantine of agricultural products, including citrus crops;
land use restrictions (which could affect real estate values, tourism, and
recreational activities);
restriction or bans on commercial fishing; and
public health effects and medical care.
4.3.4.7. Mission Risks
A summary of the mission risks is presented in Table 4-13. For the purpose of this
FEIS, risk is defined as the expectation of health effects in a statistical sense (i.e., the
product of total probability times the mean health effects resulting from a release, and
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4. Environmental Consequences
then summed over all conditions leading to a release). The risk of health effects in the
potentially exposed populations is determined for each mission phase and the overall
mission.
Table 4-13. Summary of LWRHU Health Effect Mission Risks
Conditional Mean Health
Accident Probability Total Probability Effects (given Mission
(a)
Mission Phase Probability of a Release of a Release a release) Risks
-6 -9
0: Pre-Launch 3.3x10 0.093 Extremely Unlikely 0.015 4.4x10
-7
(3.1x10 )
-3 -6
1: Early Launch 3.1x10 0.020 Very Unlikely 0.020 1.3x10
-5
(6.2x10 )
-2
2: Late Launch 3.6x10 – – — —
-2 -8
3: Suborbital 1.3x10 0.00018 Very Unlikely 0.0060 1.4x10
-6
(2.4x10 )
-3
4: Orbital 4.7x10 - - - -
-6
5: Long-term Reentry 1.0x10 - - - -
-2 -6
Overall Mission 2.5x10 0.0026 Very Unlikely 0.020 1.3x10
-5
(6.5x10 )
Source: SNL 2014
(a) A composite of the results for the Atlas V 551 and the Delta IV Heavy, determined by taking the probability-weighted value of the two
sets of results, treating the conditional probability of having a given launch vehicle as 0.5. Accident probabilities are the average of
individual values for the two vehicles. Based on the current state of knowledge, the specific accident probabilities for the accident
conditions for each vehicle are expected to be similar.
Differences in multiplications and summations are due to rounding of results as reported in SNL 2014.
Probability categories (i.e., unlikely, very unlikely) as defined by NASA.
Since the health effects resulting from a release equals the sum of the probability of a
health effect for each individual in the exposed population, risk can also be interpreted
as the total probability of one health effect given the mission. The overall radiological
risk for the solar powered rover with LWRHUs Mars 2020 mission is estimated to be
1.3x10-6. Thus, the total probability of one health effect for Alternative 3 (with LWRHUs)
is about 1 in 790,000.
The risk contribution from Phase 1 accidents, 1.3x10-6 (or a probability of about 1 in
800,000 that a health effect will occur), represents nearly all of the radiological risk for
the Mars 2020 mission. The primary contributors to the Phase 1 risk in order of
significance are (1) FSII, (2) Low Altitude FTS, and (3) On-Pad Explosion.
The contributions to risk within 100 km (62 mi) of the launch site and in the global area
are summarized in Table 4-14. The launch area risk is about 64 percent of the overall
mission risk, while the risk to global areas is 36 percent. The launch area risks are due
entirely from accidents during Phases 0 and 1, with Phase 1 being the primary
contributor. The global risks are due to accidents in all mission phases, with Phase 1
being the primary contributor due to the atmospheric transport of small particles beyond
100 km from the launch site.
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Table 4-14. LWRHU Health Effect Mission Risk Contributions by Affected Region
Mission Risks
(a) (b) (c)
Mission Phase Launch Area Global Total
-9 -9 -9
0: Pre-Launch 2.7x10 1.8x10 4.4x10
-7 -7 -6
1: Early Launch 8.1x10 4.4x10 1.3x10
2: Late Launch — — —
-8 -8
3: Suborbital — 1.4x10 1.4x10
4: Orbital — — -
5: Long-term Reentry — — -
-7 -7 -6
Overall Mission 8.2x10 4.6x10 1.3x10
Source: SNL 2014
(a) A composite of the results for the Atlas V 551 and the Delta IV Heavy, determined by
taking the probability-weighted value of the two sets of results, treating the
conditional probability of having a given launch vehicle as 0.5
(b) Phases 0 and 1: within 100 km (62 mi) of the launch site.
(c ) Phase 3: southern Africa; Phase 4: land impacts between 29° north and 29° south
latitude.
Note: Differences in summations may be due to rounding
Individual Risks
Individual risk can be interpreted as the probability of an individual in the exposed
population incurring a fatal cancer. For an accident near the launch site, not everyone
within the regional area would be expected to receive a dose as a result of the accident.
Due to meteorological conditions prevailing at the time of launch, only a portion of the
total regional population is estimated to receive some measurable radiological exposure
should an accident occur.
Even those individuals within the exposed population, such as those very close to the
launch area that might receive the highest exposures, would face very small risks. The
risk to the maximally exposed individual within the launch area and global populations
(Table 4-15) is estimated to be much less than 1 in 10,000,000 for Alternative 3 (with
LWRHUs) of the Mars 2020 mission. Most people in the potentially exposed population
would have much lower risks.
The individual risk estimates are small compared to other risks. For example, Table 4-9
presents information on annual individual fatality risks to residents of the United States
due to various types of hazards. This data indicates that in 2010 the average individual
risk of accidental death in the United States was about 1 in 2,600 per year, while the
average individual risk of death due to any disease, including cancer, was about 1 in
140.
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4. Environmental Consequences
2: Late Launch – — —
-6 -12
3: Suborbital Very Unlikely (2.4x10 ) 0.0013 1.8x10
4: Orbital - — —
5: Long-term Reentry - — —
4.3.4.8. Uncertainty
An uncertainty analysis to estimate uncertainties in probabilities, source terms,
radiological consequences, and mission risks has not been performed as part of this
report. Based on experience with uncertainty analyses in the preliminary risk
assessment of previous missions (e.g., for the Cassini, Mars Exploration Rover, New
Horizons, and Mars Science Laboratory missions), the uncertainty in the estimated
mission risk for the Mars 2020 mission can be approximated. The FSAR analysis for
those missions indicate that the uncertainty is dominated by the uncertainty associated
with the launch vehicle accident probabilities. The 5th and 95th percentile accident
probabilities are about a factor of 25 lower and higher, respectively, than the accident
median probabilities. The mission risk estimate for Alternative 3 (with LWRHUs) of
1.3x10-6 (or a probability of about 1 in 790,000 that a health effect will occur) can be
treated as the median of the uncertainty probability distribution (i.e., it is equally
probable that the mission risk could be higher or lower than this value). The mission
risks at the 5th and 95th percent confidence levels are then estimated to be 5.1x10-8 (or a
probability of about 1 in 19,000,000 that a health effect will occur) and 3.2x10-5 (or a
probability of about 1 in 32,000 that a health effect will occur), respectively.
4.3.5 Radiological Contingency Response Planning
Radiological contingency response planning for any configuration of the Mars 2020
mission that contains plutonium (either an MMRTG or LWRHUs) would be similar, and
has been described in Section 4.1.6.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
4-74
4. Environmental Consequences
addressed by the DOE for the Mars 2020 mission in existing DOE NEPA documents
(DOE 1993, 2000, 2002, 2002b, 2008, 2013).
The use of the facilities at KSC and CCAFS for processing the Mars 2020 spacecraft,
launch vehicle components, and for launch of the mission would be consistent with
existing land uses at each site. No new processing facilities for the Mars 2020 mission
are expected at either KSC or CCAFS, and any impacts from the use of existing
facilities are expected to be within the scope of previously approved programs (e.g.,
USAF 1998, USAF 2000, NASA 2002, NASA 2011). Implementing the Mars 2020
mission would not likely add new jobs to the workforce at either site.
Launching the Mars 2020 spacecraft would principally contribute to exhaust emission
impacts on and near SLC-37, LC-39A, or SLC-41 at CCAFS/KSC, depending on the
launch vehicle. The USAF has monitored numerous launches from CCAFS (USAF
1998). Launch could result in scorched vegetation and partially or completely defoliated
trees near the launch complex from flame and acidic deposition. Deposition could also
impact nearby bodies of water, resulting in temporary elevation of acidity levels. While
these impacts may persist with continued use of either launch complex, they are
probably not irreversible. At KSC, NASA found that in affected areas near the Space
Shuttle launch pads, vegetation reestablished itself after the launches stopped
(Schmalzer, et al. 1998).
On a short-term basis, the Mars 2020 launch would contribute negligible amounts of
ozone-depleting chemical compounds to the stratosphere. The USAF has estimated
that the total contribution from large expendable launch vehicles with SRBs to the
average annual depletion of ozone would be small (approximately 0.014 percent per
year). By comparison, a 3 percent to 7 percent annual decrease in ozone at mid-
latitudes occurs as a result of the current accumulation of all ozone-depleting
substances in the stratosphere (USAF 2000). Moreover, the ozone depletion trail from a
launch vehicle has been estimated to be largely temporary, and would be self-healing
within a few hours of the vehicle's passage (AIAA 1991). Furthermore, because
launches at CCAFS are always separated by at least a few days, combined impacts in
the sense of holes in the ozone layer combining or reinforcing one another would not
occur (USAF 2000).
Rocket launches result in the emission of greenhouse gases (CO2, trace emissions of
NOX emitted by the SRBs). The exhaust cloud would also contain CO, most of which,
under the high temperatures of the SRB's exhaust, would quickly react with oxygen in
the atmosphere to form CO2. The principal source of carbon emissions that could be
associated with spacecraft launches would be from NASA’s energy use in support of the
launches. The following annual greenhouse gas emissions were reported for 2011 in
the U.S.: 5,612.9 million metric tons (mt) (6.187 billion tons) of CO2 equivalent, 12.8
million mt (14.2 million tons) of NOX, and 65.1 million mt (71.8 million tons) of CO (EPA
2013, EPA 2014).
Concerning cumulative ozone depletion impacts, while present day ozone loss caused
by rocket emissions may be small, future ozone changes may not be; potential
increases in rocket launch rates due to space tourism or by geoengineering measures
in space should be considered. In addition, rocket-induced ozone loss might become
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
more significant in the future when the anthropogenic stratospheric halogen loading
decreases due to implementation of the Montreal Protocol (Murray et. al. 2013).
Since the Mars 2020 mission would not increase the previously analyzed launch rates,
launch of the mission would not be anticipated to contribute further to the accumulation
of greenhouse gases from expendable launch vehicles and there would not be any
substantial increase in cumulative impacts for payload processing and launch.
Therefore, the long-term, cumulative effects to the local and regional environment by
the Proposed Action (Alternative 1), Alternative 2, or Alternative 3 would not be
substantial (NASA 2011).
Other activities on or near CCAFS that are not connected with the Mars 2020 mission
that could occur during this timeframe include the proposed development and
construction of the KSC Exploration Park (formerly the International Space Research
Park (ISRP)) located on 160 hectares (400 acres) of KSC and the proposed
development and construction of a commercial space launch facility, the Shiloh Launch
Complex (FAA 2013). NASA intends to expand the launch capability of the Shuttle
Launch Complex (LC-39A and 39B) to include the ability to launch several vehicles
including the Space Launch System and commercial launch vehicles. These and other
potential construction activities at and in the vicinity of CCAFS could potentially
contribute to increases in noise, particulates and dust, solid waste disposal, and the
potential for involving wetlands and endangered species. An EIS for the ISRP has been
prepared (NASA 2004). It is anticipated that, should NASA approve this project, phased
construction would occur over the next 20 to 25 years. NASA has prepared an EA for
the expansion of LC-39A and B (KSC 2014). FAA is preparing an EIS for the Shiloh
Launch Complex.
No cumulative impacts would occur under the No Action Alternative.
4.6 ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS THAT CANNOT BE AVOIDED
At lift-off and during ascent, the main engine and SRBs of the Atlas V would produce
Al2O3, CO, HCl, and relatively smaller amounts of CO2, NOX, hydrogen, nitrogen,
chlorine, and water. The main engines of the Delta IV would produce primarily water
vapor and water. The exhaust cloud would be concentrated near the launch pad during
the first moments of launch. Thereafter, the exhaust cloud would be transported
downwind and upward, eventually dissipating to background concentrations.
Biota in the immediate vicinity of the Atlas V launch pad at SLC-41, the Delta IV launch
pad at SLC-37, or the Falcon Heavy launch pad at LC-39A could be damaged or killed
by the intense heat and HCl deposition (at SLC-41) from the exhaust cloud. No long-
term adverse effects to biota would be anticipated. Al2O3 particulates from the Atlas V
SRBs would also be deposited on soils and nearby surface waters at the launch site as
the exhaust cloud travels downwind.
4.7 INCOMPLETE OR UNAVAILABLE INFORMATION
This FEIS has been developed before final preparations could be completed for the
proposed Mars 2020 mission. The final mission and spacecraft designs would be
subject to refinement and modification as the detailed mission planning and spacecraft
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4. Environmental Consequences
design processes proceed. The results of this development process are not anticipated
to substantively affect the environmental evaluations presented in this FEIS. However,
should substantial change occur in the environmental impact analyses, NASA would
evaluate the need for additional environmental analysis and documentation.
The launch vehicle to be used on the Mars 2020 mission has not been selected.
Candidate vehicles include two versions of the Atlas V (the 541 and 551), the Delta IV
Heavy, and the Falcon Heavy. The Falcon Heavy is under development and has not yet
been flown. Some of the information presented in this FEIS regarding this launch
vehicle is based upon the design and operation of the Falcon 9. In particular, launch
vehicle preparation for the Falcon Heavy is based on preparation activities for the
Falcon 9. The description of the launch complex assumed to be used for Falcon Heavy
launches (LC-39A) is the description of the complex as it is now and does not include
any modifications necessary to support Falcon Heavy launches.
The risk assessment for the Mars 2020 mission prepared by DOE evaluates postulated
launch accidents that could potentially result in a release of PuO2 from the MMRTG.
DOE’s risk assessment has made use of the techniques developed in risk analyses for
previous NASA missions.
DOE’s risk analysis makes use of the results of extensive testing for the response of
plutonium dioxide to the environments associated with accident conditions. In addition,
DOE has developed sophisticated computer models to predict the detailed sequences
of events that might result in the release of plutonium dioxide to the environment under
these accident conditions. These techniques represent state-of-the-art plutonium
accident modeling. Several technical issues that could impact the results presented in
this FEIS would undergo continuing evaluation as a part of a more detailed safety
analysis should NASA proceed with the Proposed Action (Alternative 1) or the LWRHU-
based Alternative 3. Issues that continue to be evaluated include:
the solid propellant fire environment and its potential effect on the release of
PuO2 from the MMRTG; and
the mechanical response of the MMRTG or LWRHUs for the mission-specific
configuration of the Mars 2020 mission.
Recent solid fire propellant tests indicate that DOE’s analysis is conservative, but the
results of any future test programs could impact the modeling of the fire environment
and its effects on the MMRTG. Therefore, this issue continues to be evaluated. The
Mars 2020 mission, while using an MSL heritage design, would be expected to have
some differences in the spacecraft and rover configurations. These differences could
alter the conditional probabilities of MMRTG damage and PuO2 release. As indicated
below, a safety analysis (which would include another risk assessment) that
incorporates more detailed configuration information will be performed for this mission.
Under Presidential Directive/National Security Council Memorandum 25, a separate
nuclear launch safety review of the Mars 2020 mission would be conducted by NASA,
DOE, DoD and EPA should NASA proceed with the Proposed Action (Alternative 1) or
Alternative 3. As part of this process, DOE would prepare an FSAR that would include a
complete, detailed risk analysis. In preparing the FSAR, DOE would follow procedures
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
and use techniques similar to those used in the risk analyses performed for earlier
NASA missions using radioisotope devices. An Interagency Nuclear Safety Review
Panel (INSRP) would be formed for the Mars 2020 mission, and would review this
safety analysis. Should the FSAR present risk estimates that differ significantly from
those presented in this FEIS, NASA would consider the new information, and determine
the need for additional environmental analysis and documentation.
A detailed uncertainty analysis has not been performed as part of the risk assessment
prepared for this FEIS. Based on uncertainty analyses performed for previous mission
risk assessments (e.g., for the Cassini, Mars Exploration Rover, New Horizons, and
Mars Science Laboratory missions), parameter and model uncertainties associated with
estimating radiological consequences could result in risk estimates that vary from one to
two orders of magnitude at the 5 percent and 95 percent confidence levels. The Mars
2020 FSAR would include the results of a formal uncertainty analysis based on the
Mars 2020 risk analysis.
4.8 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SHORT-TERM USES OF THE HUMAN
ENVIRONMENT AND THE MAINTENANCE AND ENHANCEMENT OF LONG-TERM
PRODUCTIVITY
4.8.1 Short-Term Uses
Under the Proposed Action (Alternative 1), Alternative 2, or Alternative 3, the Mars 2020
mission would be launched from CCAFS or KSC. The short-term affected environment
would include the launch complex and surrounding areas. At CCAFS and KSC, short-
term uses include commercial, NASA and USAF operations, urban communities, a fish
and wildlife refuge, citrus groves, residential communities, and recreational areas. The
proposed Mars 2020 mission would be conducted in accordance with past and ongoing
NASA and USAF procedures for operations at CCAFS and KSC. Should an accident
occur under the Proposed Action causing a radiological release, short-term uses of
contaminated areas would be curtailed, pending mitigation.
4.8.2 Long-Term Productivity
No change to land use at CCAFS or KSC and the surrounding region is anticipated due
to the Proposed Action (Alternative 1), Alternative 2, or Alternative 3. The region would
continue to support human habitation and activities; wildlife habitats; citrus groves;
grazing and agricultural land; and cultural, historic, and archaeological areas. No long-
term effects on these uses are anticipated because of any of these 3 alternatives.
However, should an accident occur under the Proposed Action causing a radiological
release, the long-term productivity of contaminated land areas could be impacted,
pending mitigation.
The successful completion of the proposed Mars 2020 mission would benefit science
and the United States space program, which is important to the economic stability of the
area. In addition to the localized economic benefits from proactive small and small
disadvantaged business plans, implementing this mission has broader socioeconomic
benefits. These include technology spin-offs, such as low-power digital receivers, to
industry and other space missions, maintaining the unique capability of the United
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4. Environmental Consequences
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
4-80
4. Environmental Consequences
of Environmental Protection, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior,
and the Environmental Protection Agency.
No added impacts to floodplains and wetlands beyond those normally associated with
typical launches would be anticipated. The proposed Mars 2020 launch would not be
anticipated to add substantial impacts beyond those normally associated with a launch
vehicle.
4.10.4 Hazardous Material Management
Hazardous materials are regulated under Federal laws such as the Comprehensive
Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980, as amended (42
U.S.C. 9601 et seq.); the Toxic Substances Control Act of 1986, as amended
(15 U.S.C. 2601 et seq.); and the Hazardous Material Transportation Act of 1970, as
amended (49 U.S.C. 1803 et seq.). In addition, Air Force Instruction (AFI) 32-7086,
Hazardous Material Management, provides guidance for managing hazardous materials
at all Air Force installations, including CCAFS.
As required by contract, all hazardous material would be procured and managed by the
NSL contractor in accordance with all applicable Federal, state, and local requirements.
4.10.5 Hazardous Waste Management
The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976, as amended (42 U.S.C. 6901 et
seq.), corresponding state law, and associated Federal and state regulations establish
regulatory requirements for managing hazardous wastes. For example, Air Force
Instruction AFI 32-7042, Solid and Hazardous Waste Compliance, and the 45th Space
Wing Operations Plan 19-14, Petroleum Products and Hazardous Waste Management
Plan, provide guidance on managing hazardous waste. Hazardous wastes must be
collected, labeled appropriately, and stored in hazardous waste collection areas prior to
disposal.
Hazardous wastes would be managed by the NLS contractor in accordance with all
applicable Federal, state, and local requirements.
4.10.6 Pollution Prevention
The Pollution Prevention Act of 1990, as amended (42 U.S.C. 13101 et seq.), provides
the regulatory framework for reducing pollution. For example, Department of Defense
Directive 4210.15, Hazardous Material Pollution Prevention; USAF Policy Directive
AFPD 32-70, Environmental Quality; and AFI 32-7080, Pollution Prevention Program,
provide pollution prevention guidelines. NASA participates in a partnership with the
military services called the Joint Group on Pollution Prevention to reduce or eliminate
hazardous material or processes.
Pollution prevention guidelines are provided, for example, by the 45th Space Wing
Pollution Prevention Program Guide and Pollution Prevention Management Action Plan.
4.10.7 Spill Prevention
Oil pollution prevention regulations in 40 CFR 112 require preparation and
implementation of spill prevention, control, and countermeasures (SPCC) plans for all
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
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4. Environmental Consequences
4.10.11 Noise
Regulations and guidelines prescribed by the Noise Control Act of 1972, as amended
(42 U.S.C. 4901 et seq.); the Occupational Safety and Health Administration; and the
National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health would be followed at both CCAFS
and KSC.
4.10.12 Worker and Public Safety and Health
OSHA regulations would be followed to ensure worker and public safety and health from
excessive noise, exposure to hazardous materials and hazardous wastes, and ingestion
of toxic fumes from operations such as fueling. The 45th Space Wing at CCAFS has the
responsibility to follow Range Safety guidelines as outlined in the Range Safety User
Requirements Manual (USAF 2004). MMRTG handling at the launch site would be
performed following applicable regulations as outlined in KHB 1860.1, KSC Ionizing
Radiation Protection Program (NASA 2001) and in accordance with the DOE safety
rules and regulations as summarized in a Mars 2020-specific Documented Safety
Analysis that would be prepared by the DOE prior to activities in support of a Mars 2020
launch.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
4-84
5. List of Preparers
5. LIST OF PREPARERS
This Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) for the Mars 2020 mission was
prepared by the Science Mission Directorate, National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA). As a cooperating agency, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)
has contributed expertise in the preparation of this FEIS. The organizations and
individuals listed below contributed to the overall effort in the preparation of this
document.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
George Tahu Program Executive, Mars 2020 Mission
M.S., Systems Engineering Science Mission Directorate
Years of Experience: 24
Tina Norwood NASA NEPA Coordinator
M.S., Ecology Environmental Management Division
Years of Experience: 29
Ken Kumor NASA NEPA Analyst
JD
Years of Experience: 34
Thomas Hayes NASA Office of General Counsel
JD
Years of Experience: 20
5-1
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
5-2
5. List of Preparers
5-3
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
5-4
6. Agencies, Organizations, and Individuals Consulted
6-1
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
NASA held scoping meetings on October 9 and 10, 2013, to solicit written and oral
comments on the scope of the Mars 2020 Mission Draft EIS. Two scoping meetings
were held in the vicinity of Kennedy Space Center (KSC). An open house, town hall
meeting format was used for the scoping meetings. This format enabled meeting
participants to familiarize themselves with the proposed Mars 2020 mission and Draft
EIS, as well as the NEPA process during the open house, followed by an opportunity to
provide formal comments on the scope of the Mars 2020 Mission EIS.
The open house portion of the scoping meetings included displays of a variety of
posters and printed material that supported the EIS and NEPA process. Technical
experts were available to interact with the public at the various displays. In addition,
there were several “floater” experts that provided additional technical expertise where
needed. Each display was augmented with supporting written materials such as a fact
sheet.
The town hall session followed the open house. After introductory remarks,
presentations were made including videotaped presentations by the NASA HQ Mars
2020 Program Executive and the NASA HQ NEPA Manager, and followed by
presentations by other team members that were in attendance. In anticipation of the
government shutdown, the NASA HQ Mars 2020 Program Executive and the NASA HQ
NEPA Manager recorded their presentations at NASA TV in Washington, DC. At the
conclusion of the presentations, the facilitator took direction of the meeting, guiding
individuals through the comment process. During the formal scoping comment portion,
one member of the public asked questions on the science portion of the mission but did
not provide comments on the scope of the EIS. Written scoping comments were
received by one individual representing a college class (Turner 2013). The scoping
period ended on October 30, 2013.
6.4 WEBSITE
Throughout the duration of the Mars 2020 Mission NEPA process, NASA will maintain a
website that provides the public with the most up-to-date project information, including
electronic copies of the EIS, as they are made available. The website may be accessed
at http://www.nasa.gov/agency/nepa/mars2020eis
6.5 REVIEW OF DRAFT EIS
The public was notified of the opportunity to review and comment on this Draft Mars
2020 Mission EIS by announcements in the Federal Register (79FR 32577 and 79FR
32729, June 5th and 6th 2014, respectively) and local digital and print news media. This
Mars 2020 Mission Draft EIS was also available for downloading from the website
identified above.
6.6 DRAFT EIS DISTRIBUTION
The Draft Mars 2020 Mission EIS was made available for review and comment by
Federal, state, and local agencies and the public. The public review and comment
period extended 45 days from the publication of the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency’s (EPA’s) Federal Register notice of availability (NOA) (79FR32729) published
on June 6, 2014. Comments were considered during the preparation of the Final EIS.
6-2
6. Agencies, Organizations, and Individuals Consulted
As announced in the NOA, the Draft EIS was available for review and download at the
NASA web site: http://www.nasa.gov/agency/nepa/index.html#.UzQr1lEVF8M
NASA mailed copies of the Draft EIS directly to the agencies, organizations, and
individuals who had requested a printed copy or CD of the document. In addition, NASA
sent copies of the NOA via mail or email to the stakeholders listed below:
Federal Agencies
Council on Environmental Quality
Advisory Council on Historic Preservation
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NASA Headquarters
NASA Ames Research Center FOIA Customer Service Center
NASA Dryden Flight Research Center FOIA Customer Service Center
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center FOIA Customer Service Center
NASA Johnson Space Center FOIA Customer Service Center
NASA Kennedy Space Center FOIA Customer Service Center
NASA Langley Research Center FOIA Customer Service Center
NASA Marshall Space Flight Center FOIA Customer Service Center
NASA Stennis Space Center FOIA Customer Service Center
NASA Glenn Research Center FOIA Customer Service Center
NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory FOIA Customer Service Center
NASA Shared Services Center FOIA Customer Service Center
NASA Public Liaison Office
National Science Foundation
Office of Management and Budget
U.S. Department of Agriculture
U.S. Department of the Air Force
Patrick Air Force Base
U.S. Department of the Army
U.S. Department of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA Fisheries)
U.S. Department of Energy
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Food and Drug Administration
National Cancer Institute
U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Federal Emergency Management Agency, Region 4
Transportation Security Administration
U.S. Coast Guard
U.S. Department of the Interior
Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement
Fish and Wildlife Service
National Park Service
Office of Environmental Policy and Compliance
6-3
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
6-4
6. Agencies, Organizations, and Individuals Consulted
County Agencies
Brevard County
Board of Commissioners
Natural Resources Management Office
Office of Emergency Management
Planning and Zoning Office
Lake County Board of Commissioners
Orange County Board of Commissioners
Osceola County Board of Commissioners
Seminole County Board of Commissioners
Volusia County
County Chair
County Manager
Local Agencies
Port Canaveral Commissioners, Chairman, District 1
Mayor Rocky Randels, City of Cape Canaveral
Mayor Henry U. Parrish III, City of Cocoa
Mayor Dave Netterstrom, City of Cocoa Beach
Mayor Jim Swan, City of Kissimmee
Mayor Kathy Meehan, City of Melbourne
Mayor Adam Barringer, City of New Smyrna Beach
Mayor Buddy Dyer, City of Orlando
6-5
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
6-6
6. Agencies, Organizations, and Individuals Consulted
Individuals
Sebnem Aynur
Walter Blair
Peter Carson
Sandip Chatterjee
Lois Clark
Kevin Clendaniel
James Dean – Florida Today
Premilla Dixit
Margaret Dutton
Dr. Murray Felsher
Rosemary Galli
Nancy Goodspeed
Daniel Gruenbaum
Jane Hanna
Russell D. Hoffman
Karl Johanson
Leah R. Karpen
Helene Knox, PhD.
Deborah Kreis
Chris Kridler
Sarah Lasenby
Dr. John F. Martin
Natacsha Mayers
Ross McCluney
Gary Moore – Webster University
Shirley Morrison
Robert Osband
Richard Paczynski, MD
L. Peterson
Andrew Pesce
John Plotnicky
Mary Ann Powell
Wilfred Phillips
Ralph E. Renno, III
Lilly Ryterski
Gregory Sakala
Dr. Judith Schmidt
Alan H. Scoville
William Sell
Jean Stewart
Bryan Thomas
Eric Turner
Matt Van Kleunen
Caroll Webber
Linda West
6-7
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Claire Whitehill
Faith Molly Wilcox
Tim Yep
William Young
Sylvia Z. Zisman
6-8
7. Index
7. INDEX
A
Abbreviations, xxix
Accident
cleanup costs, ix, 2-63, 4-47
configurations, 4-24, 4-27, 4-41, 4-63
consequences
non-radiological, vii, 2-53, 4-17, 4-54, 4-55
radiological, viii - xiii, 2-55, 4-22, 4-54, 4-55
environments, viii, 2-23, 2-44, 2-57, 4-23 - 4-26, 4-30
probabilities, x - xiii, 2-56, 2-57, 2-61, 2-63, 4-23, 4-24, 4-26, 4-32, 4-56, 4-59
Acronyms, xxix
Affected Environment, 3-1
Agencies and Individuals Consulted, 5-1
Air quality, vii, 2-51, 2-53, 3-5, 4-5, 4-18
Alternatives
Alternative 1 (see Proposed Action)
Alternative 2, iv, 2-1, 2-38, 4-53
Alternative 3, iv, 2-1, 2-42, 4-54
considered but not evaluated further, 2-48
comparison of, xiii, 2-48 – 2-69
No Action, v, 2-48, 4-74
Proposed Action, i, iv, 2-1, 2-3, 4-3
Aluminum oxide (Al2O3), 2-53, 3-22, 4-6, 4-8, 4-9, 4-10, 4-19
Ambient noise, 3-6, 4-6
Ammonium perchlorate, 2-26, 4-6,4-14, 4-18, 4-79
Aquatic preserves, 3-7, 3-9
Aquatic resources, 3-9, 3-10
Archaeological resources, 2-51, 3-17, 4-12
Atlas V, vi, 2-3, 2-25, 2-57, 3-3, 3-10, 4-1
Atomic Energy Act, 4-48, 4-70
Automatic Destruct System (ADS), 2-35, 4-28
B
Background radiation, x, xii, 3-25
Biological resources, 2-51, 3-9, 4-9, 4-19, 4-82
C
Cancer fatalities (see Latent cancer fatalities)
Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), iv, vii, 1-1, 2-1, 2-27, 2-30, 2-34, 3-1, 4-3,
4-79
Carbon dioxide (CO2), 2-15, 2-53, 3-22, 4-6, 4-14
Carbon monoxide (CO), 2-53, 3-5, 4-6
7-1
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
7-2
7. Index
F
Falcon (Heavy), vi, 2-3, 2-32 -2-35, 3-3, 3-10, 4-1
Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR), 4-51, 4-62, 4-73, 4-77, 4-78
First stage, 2-26, 2-29, 2-32, 4-16
Flight Termination System (FTS), 2-35, 4-27, 4-28, 4-29, 4-35, 4-37, 4–41, 4-43, 4-57,
4-59, 4-61, 4-68
Floodplain, 3-7, 4-80
Florida scrub jay, 3-12, 3-13, 4-7
Freon-11, 4-4
G
General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS), 2-17 – 2-23, 4-23, 4-25, 4-26, 4-30 – 4-33,
4-37, 4-38
Global environment, 2-51, 3-21, 4-14
Global climate change, 2-51, 4-16
Glossary, A-1
Greenhouse gases, 3-23, 4-16, 4-75
Groundwater, 2-51, 3-8, 3-18, 3-19, 4-8, 4-12
H
Health effects, xi, xiii, 2-59 – 2-61, 2-64, 4-26, 4-38 - 4-45, 4-49, 4-62 -4-69, B-7
Historic resources, 3-16, 4-82
Hydrazine, 2-10, 2-24, 2–26, 2-27, 2-30, 2-34, 2-54, 3-6, 4-9, 4-17, 4-79
Hydrogen chloride (HCl), vii, 2-51, 2–53, 3-22, 4-6 – 4-10, 4-13 – 4-14, 4-18, 4-76
Hydrology, 4-9
hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene binder (HTPB), 2-25, 4-6, 4-79
I
Incomplete or unavailable information, 4-76
Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel (INSRP), 4-78
K
Kennedy Space Center (KSC), iv, vii, 2-1, 2-24, 2-30, 2-33, 2-51, 3-1, 4-2, 4-74, 4-78,
4-79
L
Land use, 2-51, 3-3, 4-5, 4-47, 4-70, 4-78
Latent cancer fatalities, (see also Health effects) x–xiii, 2-59 – 2-63, 4-26, 4-51, 4-73
Launch Complex (LC)-39A, 2-33
Launch vehicle (exhaust) emissions, 3-22, 4-5, 4-14, 4-75
Launch phases (see Mission phases)
Launch profile, 2-27, 2-30, 2-34
Launch vehicle processing, 2-26, 2-30, 2-33, 4-4, 4-10, 4-12
Launch vehicles
Atlas V, vi, 2-4, 2-25, 2-35, 2-53, 2-57, 3-3, 3-10, 4-1
7-3
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Delta IV, vi, 2-4, 2-29, 2-53, 2-57, 3-3, 3-10, 4-1
Falcon (Heavy), vi, 2-4,2-32, 2-57, 3-3, 3-10, 4-1
Light-Weight Radioisotope Heater Unit (LWRHU),
Description, 2-43
Response to accidents, 2-44, 4-57, 4-58
General, iv, vi, viii, xi, xv, 2-1, 4-1
Lightning, 3-11, 3-13, 3-21, 4-10
Liquid propellant, vii, 2-25, 2-27, 2-29, 2-35, 2-54, 3-17, 4-5, 4-8, 4-15, 4-17, 4-20, 4-24
Liquid hydrogen (LH2), 2-26, 2-29, 2-53, 4-6, 4-15, 4-17
Liquid oxygen (LOX), 2-26, 2-29, 2-53, 3-19, 4-6, 4-15, 4-17
M
Manatee, 3-10 - 3-13, 4-19
Maximally exposed individual, xi - xiii, 2-65, 4-45,4-51, 4-70,4-72
Maximum individual dose, ix, 2-59, 2-61, 4-35, 4-41 – 4-46, 4-51, 4-62 – 4-68
Mission Flight Control Officer (MFCO), 4-28
Mission
description, i, 2-3
objectives, iii, 1-4, 1-5
phases, 2-21, 2-58, 4-26
risk (radiological), v, viii, x, xi - xiii, 2-64, 4-22 – 4-26, 4-49 – 4-51, 4-70 – 4-73
Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG),
general, iii, v – vi, viii, 2-11
description, viii, 2-16 – 2-21
response to accidents, viii, 2-21 – 2-22, 4-30 – 4-33
N
National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), 3-5
National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), i, iii, 1-1, 1-7, 3-1, 4-1
Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), 3-5
Nitrogen oxides (NOX), 2-53, 3-5, 4-6, 4-14, 4-75
No Action Alternative, v, 2-2, 2-48, 4-74
Noise, 2-51, 2-53, 3-6, 4-6, 4-7, 4-11, 4-74, 4-83
Notice of Availability, 1-7, 1-9, 6-1
Notice of Intent, 1-8, 6-1
O
Offshore environment, 2-51, 3-10, 4-9
Outstanding Florida Waters, 3-7
Ozone (O3), vii, 2-51, 2-53, 3-5, 3-22, 3-23, 4-13 – 4-16, 4-75
P
Particulates, 2-51, 3-5, 4-6,4-8, 4-15, 4-17, 4-76
Payload fairing (PLF), 2-26, 2-30, 2-33
Perchlorate contamination, 4-18, 4-19
7-4
7. Index
Plutonium
environmental effects, B-1
worldwide levels, 3-26
Plutonium (Pu)-238, viii, 2-16, 2-21, 2-43, 2-45, 2-57, 4-23, 4-46
Plutonium dioxide (PuO2), viii, x -xiii, 2-16, 2-21 - 2-23, 2-43, 2-44, 2-57, 4-1, 4-22,
4-31, 4-48, 4-73, 4-79
Population
global, 3-24
regional, 3-13, C-4 – C-6
risk, 2-64
Price-Anderson Act, 2-64, 4-48, 4-70
Proposed Action
description, i, iv, 2-1, 2-3, 2-48, 4-3
need, iii, 1-5
purpose, iii, 1-4
Purpose and Need for Action, 1-1
R
Range Safety, vii,1-9, 2-35, 3-16, 3-19, 3-23, 4-5, 4-13
References, 8-1
Risk
assessment, viii, 1-9, 2-55, 2-57, 4-1, 4-22 – 4-26, 4-56
individual, 2-51, 2-65, 4-50 – 4-52, 4-72
general, v, ix – xiii, 2-36, 2-56 – 2-57, 4-33, 4-20, 5-50 -4-51, 4-71 – 4-73, B-10
mission, 2-66, 4-49 – 4-53, 4-70 – 4-73
population, 2-64
Rocket Propellant (RP-1), 2-26, 2-27, 2-33, 2-34, 2-53, 4-6, 4-9, 4-14, 4-17, 4-79
S
Safety
public, 4-83
Range (see Range Safety)
worker, 4-74, 4-83
Science instruments, 2-11 – 2-15
Science objectives, xv, 1-5, 2-2, 2-67
Second stage, 2-25, 2-26, 2-29, 2-33, 4-17
Socioeconomics, 2-51, 3-13, 4-11, 4-46, 4-78
Solid propellant, 2-26, 2-36, 2-51, 2-54, 4-6, 4-14, 4-18, 4-19, 4-20, 4-24, 4-31, 4-43, 4-
58
Solar power, iv, 2-1, 2-38 – 2-41, 2-43, 2-45
Solid rocket booster (SRB), 2-25, 2-26, 2-28, 2-36, 4-6, 4-8, 4-10, 4-13, 4-14, 4-15,
4-16, 4-19, 4-20, 4-75
Sonic booms, 2-51, 2-53, 3-6, 4-6
Source term, 2-58, 4-23 – 4-26, 4-32 - 4-38, 4-58 - 4-62
7-5
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
7-6
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USGS 1995. U.S. Geological Survey. USGS radon information. Available at
http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/radon/rnus.html
Voigt et al 2013. Ch. Voigt, U. Schumann, K. Graf, and K.-.D. Gottschaldt. Impact of
Rocket Exhaust Plumes on Atmospheric Composition and Climate – An
Overview. Progress in Propulsion Physics 4 (2013) 657-670. DOI:
10.1051/eucass/201304657. Article available at http://www.eucass-
proceedings.eu or http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/eucass/201304657
WMO 1991. World Meteorological Organization. Global Ozone Research and
Monitoring Project – Report No. 25: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion:
1991.
WMO 2006, World Meteorological Organization. Global Ozone Research and
Monitoring Project – Report No. 50: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion:
2006, March 2007.
Yang and Nelson 1984. Yang, Y., and C. Nelson. An Estimation of the Daily Average
Food Intake by Age and Sex for Use in Assessing the Radionuclide Intake of
Individuals in the General Population. Prepared for the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Report 520/1-84-021. 1984.
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8-14
Appendix A
A.
APPENDIX A
GLOSSARY OF TERMS
99th percentile—An expression of an outcome that would not occur in more than
1 percent of all statistical samples (that is, 1 percent of the outcomes would be
greater than the 99th percentile level); the 99th percentile is derived from the
distribution of outcomes on which the mean value is based.
accident environment—Conditions resulting from an accident, such as blast
overpressure, fragments, and fire.
affected environment—A description of the existing environment that could be affected
by the Proposed Action or its alternatives.
Alpha particle—Alpha particles are the heaviest type of ionizing radiation, consisting of
two protons and two neutrons. They can travel only a few centimeters in air.
Alpha particles lose their energy almost as soon as they collide with anything.
They can be stopped easily by a sheet of paper or by the skin’s surface.
ambient air—The surrounding atmosphere, usually the outside air, as it exists around
people, plants, and structures. (It is not the air in the immediate proximity of an
emission source.)
astrobiology—The science that studies the question of whether life exists on other
planets and encompasses the study of the origin, evolution, distribution, and
future of life in the universe.
Atlas—A family of launch vehicles originally developed by the Lockheed Martin Space
Systems Company and currently manufactured by the United Launch Alliance, a
joint venture between Lockheed Martin and The Boeing Company.
attainment—An area is designated as being in attainment by the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency if it meets the National Ambient Air Quality Standards
(NAAQS) for a given criteria pollutant. Non-attainment areas are areas in which
any one of the NAAQS have been exceeded, maintenance areas are areas
previously designated non-attainment and subsequently re-designated as
attainment, and unclassifiable areas are areas that cannot be classified on the
basis of available information as meeting or not meeting the NAAQS for any one
criteria pollutant.
background radiation—Ionizing radiation present in the environment from cosmic
rays, natural sources in the Earth, and artificial sources; background radiation
varies considerably with location.
Bequerel (Bq) - One Bq is defined as the activity of a quantity of radioactive material in
which one nucleus decays per second
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
geology—The study or science of the Earth (or any solid celestial body), its history, and
its life as recorded in the rocks.
health effects—Within the context of this EIS, health effects are defined as the number
of additional latent cancer fatalities due to a radioactive release (that is, the
number of cancer fatalities resulting from this release that are in excess of those
cancer fatalities which the general population would normally experience from
other causes).
hibernation—A mode of operation to facilitate survival of the rover during winter that
requires orientation of the solar panels such that the batteries supply sufficient
power to keep the rover and its instruments warm but electric power would not be
adequate to perform most science activities.
hydrazine—A toxic, colorless liquid fuel that is hypergolic (able to burn spontaneously
on contact) when mixed with an oxidizer such as nitrogen tetroxide (N2O4) or
placed in contact with a catalyst. Vapors may form explosive mixtures with air.
initiating probability—The probability that an identified accident and associated
adverse conditions (accident environments) will occur.
ionosphere—An upper atmospheric region where ionization of atmospheric gases
occurs.
isotope—Any of two or more species of atoms of a chemical element with the same
atomic number and nearly identical chemical behavior, but with different atomic
mass (due to different number of neutrons) or mass number and different nuclear
properties.
latent cancer fatalities—Estimation of latent cancer fatalities. This estimation assumes
that exposures to the radioactive material released to the environment occur over
a 50-year period, and that the internal dose resulting from such exposure are 50-
year committed doses; meaning that, following inhalation or ingestion of the
radioactive material, the resulting internal doses are based on tracking the
material in the body for a 50-year period. The time period over which latent
cancer fatalities occur is undefined, and could occur well after 50 years following
the release.
launch azimuth—The initial angle, measured clockwise from North, which a launch
vehicle takes as it begins to ascend.
Light-Weight Radioisotope Heater Unit (LWRHU)— A radioactive heat source that
provides heat for temperature-sensitive spacecraft components. Each LWRHU
provides about one watt of heat derived from the radioactive decay of about 2.7
grams (0.1 ounce) of plutonium dioxide, having approximately 33.2 curies of
activity.
mass spectrometry—An analytical technique for the identification of the chemical
composition of a substance. Using an electrical or magnetic field the mass
spectrometer creates gaseous ions from the substance being examined and
sorts and identifies the ions.
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Appendix A
maximally exposed individual (MEI)—A hypothetical person that would receive the
maximum predicted dose following an accident with a release of radioactive
material.
mean—The outcome (source term, dose, health effects, or land contamination as used
in this EIS) that would be anticipated if an accident which released radioactive
material were to occur; the mean is a statistical expression of probability-
weighted values (source terms or radiological consequences).
Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG)—An evolutionary
power source derived from the GPHS-RTG that converts the heat from the
radioactive decay of plutonium (in a ceramic form of plutonium dioxide consisting
mostly of plutonium-238, a non-weapons grade isotope) contained in eight GPHS
modules into usable electrical energy.
National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)—Section 109 of the Clean Air Act
requires the EPA to set nationwide standards—the NAAQS—for widespread air
pollutants. Currently, six pollutants are regulated by primary and secondary
NAAQS (see criteria pollutants).
nominal—In the context of this EIS, default, typical, or planned conditions or
operations; functioning normally or acceptably.
oxides of nitrogen (NOx)—Gases formed primarily by fuel combustion, which
contribute to the formation of acid rain. Hydrocarbons and oxides of nitrogen
combine in the presence of sunlight to form ozone, a major constituent of smog.
parking orbit—A temporary low-altitude Earth orbit in which a spacecraft with its
second or third launch vehicle stage waits until it is in the proper position to
continue toward its next or final destination.
payload—The element(s) that a launch vehicle or spacecraft carries over and above
what is necessary for the operation of the vehicle. For a launch vehicle, the
spacecraft being launched is the payload; for a scientific spacecraft, the suite of
science instruments is the payload.
payload fairing (PLF)—The protective shell on a launch vehicle that encapsulates the
spacecraft through atmospheric ascent.
plutonium—The chemical element of atomic number 94, a dense silvery radioactive
transuranic metal of the actinide series. Plutonium occurs in trace amounts in
nature but is predominantly man-made.
plutonium dioxide—A chemical compound with the formula PuO2. In ceramic form it is
used to fuel the MMRTG and in LWRHUs. The fuel has a high melting
temperature (2400oC (4350oF)), is nearly insoluble in water, and tends to fracture
into largely non-respirable pieces upon impact.
plutonium-238—A non-weapons grade radioactive isotope of plutonium that decays
with a half-life of 87.7 years through the emission of an alpha particle. It is the
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energy generated during this alpha decay that powers the MMRTG and provides
the heat from an LWRHU.
Prebiotic—Occurring or existing before the development of life
pyrolitic graphite— A man-made form of graphite, created by heating graphite and
allowing it to cool into a crystalline form. This type of graphite has enhanced
thermal conduction properties compared to ordinary graphite.
radiation—The emitted particles (alpha, beta, neutrons) or photons (x-rays, gamma
rays) from the nuclei of unstable (radioactive) atoms as a result of radioactive
decay. Some elements are naturally radioactive; others are induced to become
radioactive by bombardment in a nuclear reactor or other particle accelerator.
The characteristics of naturally occurring radiation are indistinguishable from
those of induced radiation.
radiation dose—The amount of energy from ionizing radiation deposited within tissues
of the body; a dose is a time-integrated measure of potential damage to tissues
from exposure to radiation and, as such, can have health-based consequences.
radioactive half-life—The time required for one half of the atoms in a radioactive
isotope to decay.
radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG)—A power system used by NASA and
built by DOE that generates electricity using the heat from the natural decay of
plutonium dioxide. Excess heat from the RTG is often used to keep spacecraft
electronics and mechanical systems at proper operating temperatures in the cold
of space.
rem—The unit dose representing the amount of ionizing radiation needed to produce
the same biological effects as one roentgen of high-penetration x-rays (about
200,000 electron volts). The biological effects of 1 rem are presumed to be
independent of the type of radiation. There are 1,000 millirem in each rem.
risk—Within the context of this EIS, risk is defined as the expectation of health effects
in a statistical sense (that is, the mathematical product of total probability times
the mean health effects resulting from a release of plutonium dioxide, and then
summed over all conditions leading to a release).
second stage—The launch vehicle stage that continues to provide thrust during ascent
after the vehicle's first stage has depleted its propellant and been jettisoned.
sol—One Martian day. A Martian day is 24 hours, 37 minutes or 1.026 Earth days long.
solar longitude (of Mars)—The apparent longitude of the sun seen on a celestial
sphere whose equator is defined by the plane of Mars’ orbit about the sun. The
transition from winter to spring in the northern hemisphere on Mars defines zero
degrees solar longitude.
source term—Typically the quantities of materials released during an accident to air or
water pathways and the characteristics of the releases (for example, particle size
distribution); used for determining accident consequences. The DOE Nuclear
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Appendix A
Risk Assessment identifies the quantities of material released that can become
airborne as the source term.
spectrometer—A device used to identify the chemical composition of a substance.
The mass spectrometer uses an electrical or magnetic field to create gaseous
ions from the substance being examined and sorts and identifies the ions.
Strategic Knowledge Gap—Gaps in NASA’s knowledge or information required to
reduce risk, increase effectiveness, and improve the design of robotic and human
space exploration missions.
stratosphere—An upper portion of the atmosphere above the troposphere reaching a
maximum height of 50 kilometers (31 miles) above the Earth’s surface. The
temperature is relatively constant in the lower stratosphere and gradually
increases with altitude. The stratosphere is the Earth’s main ozone producing
region.
take—To pursue, hunt, shoot, wound, kill, trap, capture, or collect, or attempt to pursue,
hunt, shoot, wound, kill, trap, capture, or collect (50 CFR 10.12).
tropopause—The boundary between the troposphere and stratosphere, usually
characterized by an abrupt change of lapse rate; the change is in the direction of
increased atmospheric stability from regions below to regions above the
tropopause; its height varies from 15 kilometers (9 miles) in the tropics to about
10 kilometers (6 miles) in polar regions.
troposphere—The portion of the atmosphere next to the Earth’s surface in which the
temperature rapidly decreases with altitude, clouds form, and convection is
active. The troposphere begins at ground level and extends to an altitude of 10 to
12 kilometers (6 to 8 miles) above the Earth’s surface.
unavoidable adverse effects—Effects that cannot be avoided due to constraints in
alternatives. These effects must be disclosed, discussed and mitigated, if
practicable.
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Appendix B
B.
APPENDIX B
EFFECTS OF PLUTONIUM ON THE ENVIRONMENT
Table of Contents
B-1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. B-1
B-2 RADIOLOGICAL HUMAN HEALTH IMPACTS ................................................... B-1
B-2.1 Nature of Radiation and Its Effects on Humans ........................................... B-2
B-2.2 Radiation Sources ........................................................................................ B-4
B-2.3 Exposure Pathways ..................................................................................... B-5
B-2.4 Radiation Protection Guides......................................................................... B-6
B-2.5 Radiation Exposure Limits............................................................................ B-7
B-2.6 Health Effects ............................................................................................... B-7
B-2.7 EIS Health Effect Risk Estimators .............................................................. B-10
B-3 EFFECTS OF PLUTONIUM ON THE ENVIRONMENT ..................................... B-11
B-3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................ B-11
B-3.2 Chemical And Physical Properties That Are Important For Behavior In The
Environment And The Human Body ........................................................... B-11
B-3.3 The Transport Of Plutonium Oxides Through The Environment ................ B-13
B-3.4 Transport and Deposition of Radionuclides in the Human Body ................ B-16
B-4 REFERENCES FOR APPENDIX B.................................................................... B-17
List of Tables
Table B-1. Exposure Limits for Members of the Public................................................B-7
Table B-2. Nominal Health Risk Estimators Associated with Exposure to 1 Rem of
Ionizing Radiation ...................................................................................B-8
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Appendix B
APPENDIX B
EFFECTS OF PLUTONIUM ON THE ENVIRONMENT
B-1 INTRODUCTION
This appendix addresses the potential impacts from a radioactive source containing
plutonium (Pu)-238 released to the environment, which could occur in any of the low-
probability accidents described in Chapter 4 of this Environmental Impact Statement
(EIS). In Alternative 1, the Proposed Action, the Mars 2020 rover would carry one Multi-
Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) containing approximately 4.8
kilograms (10.6 pounds) of plutonium dioxide (PuO2) (consisting mostly of Pu-238), with
a total activity of about 60,000 curies. Additionally, in Alternative 3, the Mars 2020 rover
would include light weight radioisotope heater units (LWRHUs) to keep avionics and
communication systems within thermal limits. The rover could include up to 71
LWRHUs, each containing approximately 2.7 grams (0.095 oz) of PuO2 (consisting
mostly of Pu-238), with a total activity of about 33.2 curies. Should 71 LWRHUs be used
the total activity would be about 2,400 curies. The health and environmental risks
associated with Pu-238 have been previously addressed in the National Aeronautics
and Space Administration's (NASA’s) EISs for the Galileo, Ulysses, Cassini, Mars
Exploration Rovers, New Horizons, and Mars Science Laboratory missions (NASA
1989, NASA 1990, NASA 1995, NASA 1997, NASA 2002b, NASA 2005 and NASA
2006).
Because radiation exposure and its consequences are of interest to the general public,
Section B.2 provides information about the nature of radiation and explains basic
concepts used to evaluate radiation health effects. Section B.3 discusses the behavior
of plutonium in the environment, including how it interacts with the human body.
B-2 RADIOLOGICAL HUMAN HEALTH IMPACTS
This appendix presents numerical information using scientific, or exponential, notation.
For example, the number 100,000 can also be expressed as 1 × 105. The number 0.001
can be expressed as 1 × 10-3. The following chart defines the equivalent numerical
notations that may be used in this appendix.
Fractions and Multiples of Units
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
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Appendix B
Alpha () – Alpha particles are the heaviest type of ionizing radiation, consisting of two
protons and two neutrons. They can travel only a few centimeters in air. Alpha particles
lose their energy almost as soon as they collide with anything. They can be stopped
easily by a sheet of paper or by the skin’s surface.
Beta (β) – Beta particles, consisting of an electron, are 7,330 times lighter than alpha
particles and can travel a longer distance in the air. A high-energy beta particle can
travel a few meters in the air. Beta particles can pass through a sheet of paper, but can
be stopped by a thin sheet of aluminum foil or glass.
Gamma () – Gamma rays (and x-rays), unlike alpha or beta particles, are waves of
pure energy. Gamma rays travel at the speed of light. Gamma radiation is very
penetrating and requires a large mass, such as a thick wall of concrete, lead, or steel, to
be stopped.
Neutrons (n) – Neutrons produce ionizing radiation indirectly by collision with hydrogen
nuclei (protons) and when gamma rays and alpha particles are emitted following
neutron capture in matter. A neutron has about one-quarter the weight of an alpha
particle. It will travel in the air until it is absorbed in another nucleus. The most prolific
source of neutrons is a nuclear reactor.
Radiation Measuring Units
During the early days of radiological experimentation, there was no precise unit for
radiation measure. Therefore, a variety of units were used to measure radiation. These
units determined the amount, type, and intensity of radiation. Just as heat can be
measured in terms of its intensity or effects using units of calories or degrees, amounts
of radiation or its effects can be measured in units of curies, radiation absorbed dose
(rad), or dose equivalent (roentgen equivalent in man, or rem). The following text
summarizes these units.
Curie – The curie, named after scientists Marie and Pierre Curie, describes the intensity
of a sample of radioactive material. The decay rate of 1 gram of radium was the original
basis of this unit of measure. Because the measured decay rate kept changing slightly
as measurement techniques became more accurate, the curie was subsequently
defined as exactly 3.7 × 1010 disintegrations (decays) per second.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Rad – The rad is the unit of measurement for the physical absorption of radiation. The
total energy absorbed per unit quantity of tissue is referred to as “absorbed dose” (or
simply “dose”). As sunlight heats pavement by giving up an amount of energy to it,
radiation similarly gives up energy to objects in its path. One rad is equal to the amount
of radiation that leads to the deposition of 0.01 joule of energy per kilogram of absorbing
material.
Rem – The rem is a measurement of the dose equivalent from radiation based on its
biological effects. The rem is used in measuring effects of radiation on the body.
One rem of one type of radiation is presumed to have the same biological effects as
one rem of any other kind of radiation. This allows comparison of the biological effects
of radionuclides that emit different types of radiation. One-thousandth of a rem is called
a millirem.
Person-rem – The term used for reporting the collective dose, the sum of individual
doses received in a given time period by a specified population from exposure to a
specified radiation source.
The corresponding units of radiation measure in the International System of Units are:
becquerel (a measure of source intensity), gray (a measure of absorbed dose), and
sievert (a measure of dose equivalent).
An individual may be exposed to ionizing radiation externally (from a radioactive source
outside the body) or internally (from ingesting or inhaling radioactive material). The
external dose is different from the internal dose because an external dose is delivered
only during the actual time of exposure to the external radiation source, while an internal
dose continues to be delivered as long as the radioactive source is in the body. The
dose from internal exposure is calculated over 50 years following the initial exposure.
Both radioactive decay and elimination of the radionuclide by ordinary metabolic
processes decrease the dose rate with the passage of time.
B-2.2 RADIATION SOURCES
The average American receives a total of approximately 620 millirem per year from all
radiation sources—both natural and manmade—of which approximately 310 millirem
per year are from natural sources. Radiation sources can be divided into six different
categories: (1) cosmic radiation, (2) terrestrial radiation, (3) internal radiation, (4)
B-4
Appendix B
consumer products, (5) medical diagnosis and therapy, and (6) other sources
(NCRP 1987, NRC 2011). These categories are discussed in the following paragraphs.
Cosmic Radiation – Cosmic radiation is ionizing radiation resulting from energetic
charged particles from space continuously hitting Earth’s atmosphere where they create
secondary particles and photons (primarily gamma rays and x-rays). These particles,
and the secondary particles and photons they create, compose cosmic radiation.
Because the atmosphere provides some shielding against cosmic radiation, the
intensity of this radiation increases with the altitude above sea level. The average dose
to people in the United States from this source is approximately 32 millirem per year.
External Terrestrial Radiation – External terrestrial radiation is radiation emitted from
radioactive materials in Earth’s rocks and soils. The average individual dose from
external terrestrial radiation is approximately 19 millirem per year.
Internal Radiation – Internal radiation results from the human body metabolizing natural
radioactive material that has entered the body by inhalation or ingestion. Natural
radionuclides in the body include isotopes of uranium, thorium, radium, radon,
polonium, bismuth, potassium, rubidium, and carbon. The major contributors to the
annual dose equivalent for internal radioactivity are the short-lived decay products of
radon, which contribute approximately 229 millirem per year. The average individual
dose from other internal radionuclides is approximately 31 millirem per year.
Consumer Products – Consumer products also contain sources of ionizing radiation. In
some products, such as smoke detectors and airport x-ray machines, the radiation
source is essential to the product’s operation. In other products, such as televisions and
tobacco, radiation occurs as the products function. The average dose from consumer
products is approximately 12 millirem per year.
Medical Diagnosis and Therapy – Radiation is an important diagnostic medical tool and
cancer treatment. Nuclear medical procedures result in an average exposure of about
297 millirem per year—a significant increase over the 14 millirem per year exposure
estimated in the recent past. This increase is due primarily to the expanded use of
computed tomography and the use of nuclear medication in therapy. Individual
exposures vary widely since not all individuals undergo the same medical procedures.
Other Sources – There are a few additional sources of radiation that contribute minor
doses to individuals in the United States. The average dose from nuclear fuel cycle
facilities (e.g., uranium mines, mills, and fuel processing plants) and nuclear power
plants has been estimated to be less than 1 millirem per year. Radioactive fallout from
atmospheric atomic bomb tests, emissions from certain mineral extraction facilities, and
transportation of radioactive materials contribute less than 1 millirem per year to the
average dose to an individual. Air travel contributes approximately 1 millirem per year to
the average dose.
B-2.3 EXPOSURE PATHWAYS
As stated earlier, an individual may be exposed to ionizing radiation both externally and
internally. The different ways that could result in radiation exposure to an individual are
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
1
Biological half-life is the time for one-half of a radioactive source that has entered the body to be
removed from the body by natural processes.
B-6
Appendix B
40 CFR Part 61 (EPA) 0.01 rem per year (all air pathways)
40 CFR Part 141 (EPA) 0.004 rem per year (drinking water pathways)
DOE Order 5400.5 (DOE) 0.01 rem per year (all air pathways)
0.004 rem per year (drinking water pathway)
0.1 rem per year (all pathway)
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Radiation can cause a variety of damaging health effects in humans. The most
significant effects are induced cancer fatalities. These effects are referred to as “latent
cancer fatalities” because the cancer may take many years to develop. In the
discussions that follow, all fatal cancers are considered latent; therefore, the terms
“latent cancer fatalities” and “fatal cancers” are used interchangeably in this appendix.
The National Research Council’s Committee on the BEIR has prepared a series of
reports to advise the Federal Government on radiation exposure health consequences.
Health Effects of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation, BEIR V (NRC 1990),
provides current estimates for excess mortality from leukemia and other cancers
expected to result from exposure to ionizing radiation.
Models and risk coefficients in BEIR V were derived through analyses of relevant
epidemiologic data that included the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, ankylosing
spondylitis (spinal arthritis) patients, Canadian and Massachusetts fluoroscopy (breast
cancer) patients, New York postpartum mastitis (breast cancer) patients, Israeli tinea
capitis (thyroid cancer) patients, and Rochester, New York, thymus (thyroid cancer)
patients. Models for leukemia, respiratory cancer, digestive cancer, and other cancers
used only the atomic bomb survivor data, although the ankylosis spondylitis patient
analysis results were considered. Atomic bomb survivor analyses were based on
revised dosimetry, with an assumed relative biological effectiveness of 20 for neutrons,
and were restricted to doses less than 400 rad. Estimates of fatal cancer (other than
leukemia) risks were obtained by totaling estimates for breast, respiratory, digestive,
and other cancers.
The National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, based on radiation
risk estimates provided in BEIR V and ICRP Publication 60 recommendations
(ICRP 1991), estimated the total detriment resulting from low-dose or low-dose-rate
exposure to ionizing radiation to be 0.0007 per rem for the general population (NCRP
1993). The total detriment includes fatal and nonfatal cancers, as well as severe
hereditary (genetic) effects. The major contribution to the total detriment is from fatal
cancer, estimated to be 0.0005 per rem for the general population. The risk estimator
breakdowns for the general population are shown in Table B-2. (Risk estimators are
lifetime probabilities that an individual would develop a fatal cancer per rem of radiation
received.) Nonfatal cancers and genetic effects are less probable radiation exposure
consequences.
Table B-2. Nominal Health Risk Estimators Associated with Exposure to 1 Rem of
Ionizing Radiation
Nonfatal Genetic
a b b
Exposed Individual Fatal Cancer Cancer Disorders Total
(a) For fatal cancer, the health effect coefficient is the same as the probability coefficient. When applied to an
individual, the unit is the lifetime probability of a cancer fatality per rem of radiation dose. When applied to a
population of individuals, the unit is the excess number of fatal cancers per person-rem of radiation dose.
(b) In determining a means of assessing radiation exposure health effects, the ICRP has developed a weighting
method for nonfatal cancers and genetic effects.
B-8
Appendix B
The EPA, in coordination with other Federal agencies involved in radiation protection,
issued the September 1999 Federal Guidance Report No. 13, Cancer Risk Coefficients
for Environmental Exposure to Radionuclides (EPA 1999). This document is a
compilation of risk factors for doses from external gamma radiation and internal intake
of radionuclides. Federal Guidance Report No. 13 is the basis of radionuclide risk
coefficients used in the EPA Health Effects Assessment Summary Tables (EPA 2001)
and in computer dose codes, such as the DOE Argonne Residual Radiation code.
However, DOE and other agencies regularly conduct dose assessments with models
and codes that calculate radiation dose from exposure or intake using dose conversion
factors and do not compute risk directly. In these cases, where it is necessary or
desirable to estimate risk for comparative purposes (e.g., comparing risk associated
with alternative actions), it is common practice to simply multiply the calculated TEDE
by a risk-to-dose factor. ISCORS recommends that agencies use a conversion factor of
6 × 10-4 fatal cancers per TEDE (rem) for mortality and 8 × 10-4 cancers per rem for
morbidity when making qualitative or semi-quantitative estimates of radiation exposure
risk to members of the general public2 (DOE 2002). The TEDE-to-risk factor provided in
Estimating Radiation Risk from Total Effective Dose Equivalent (TEDE), ISCORS
Technical Report No. 1, is based upon a static population with characteristics consistent
with the U.S. population.
The ISCORS report notes that the recommended risk coefficients used with TEDE dose
estimates generally produce conservative radiation risk estimates (i.e., they
overestimate risk).3 For the ingestion pathway of 11 radionuclides compared, risks
would be overestimated compared with Federal Guidance Report No. 13 values for
about 8 radionuclides, and significantly overestimated (by up to a factor of 6) for 4 of the
8. The DOE Office of Environmental Policy and Guidance also compared the risks
obtained using the risk conversion factor with the risks in Federal Guidance Report No.
13 for the inhalation pathway, and found a bias toward overestimation of risk, although it
was not as severe as for ingestion. For 16 radionuclides/chemical states evaluated, 7
were significantly overestimated (by more than a factor of 2), 5 were significantly
underestimated, and the remainder agreed within about a factor of 2. Generally, these
differences are within the uncertainty of transport and uptake portions of dose or risk
modeling and, therefore, the approach recommended is fully acceptable for comparative
assessments. That notwithstanding, it is strongly recommended that, wherever possible,
the more rigorous approach with Federal Guidance Report No. 13 cancer risk
coefficients be used (DOE 2002).
The values in Table B-2 are “nominal” cancer and genetic disorder probability
coefficients. They are based on an idealized population receiving a uniform whole-body
dose. Recent EPA studies, based on age-dependent dose coefficients for members of
2
Such estimates should not be stated with more than 1 significant digit.
3
This statement presumes that using the radionuclide-specific risk factors in Federal Guidance Report
No. 13 would be a more accurate measure of potential risk than multiplying the TEDE by a single average
risk factor.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
the public, indicate that the product of the effective dose and the probability coefficient
could over- or underestimate radiological risk (EPA 1999). In support of risk results
provided in Federal Guidance Report No. 13, EPA performed an uncertainty analysis on
uniform whole-body exposure effects. The analysis resulted in an estimated nominal
risk coefficient increase from 0.051 fatal cancers per gray (0.00051 fatal cancers per
rad) to 0.0575 fatal cancers per gray (0.000575 fatal cancers per rad) (EPA 1999a).
This result indicates a nominal risk coefficient increase of about 20 percent over that
provided in Risk Estimates for Radiation Protection (NCRP 1993) for the public.
Based on review of recent EPA reports, ISCORS recommended that a risk factor of
0.0006 fatal cancers per rem be used for estimating risks when using calculated dose
(DOE 2002).
Numerical fatal cancer estimates presented in this EIS were obtained using a linear no-
threshold extrapolation from the nominal risk estimated for lifetime total cancer mortality.
Other methods of extrapolation to the low-dose region could yield higher or lower
numerical fatal cancer estimates. Studies of human populations exposed to low doses
are inadequate to demonstrate the actual risk level. There is scientific uncertainty about
cancer risk in the low-dose region below the range of epidemiologic observation, and
the possibility of no risk cannot be excluded (CIRRPC 1992). The National Research
Council in its report on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) states that the
available scientific information is consistent with a linear dose model for low exposure
levels and that, in their judgment, it is unlikely that a threshold exists (NRC 2006).
Therefore, the risk factor of 0.0006 fatal cancers per rem was used as the conversion
factor for all radiological exposures due to accidents, including those in the low-dose
region.
B-2.7 EIS HEALTH EFFECT RISK ESTIMATORS
Health impacts of radiation exposure, whether from external or internal sources,
generally are identified as somatic (i.e., affecting the exposed individual) or genetic
(i.e., affecting descendants of the exposed individual). Radiation is more likely to
produce somatic than genetic effects. The somatic risks of most importance are induced
cancers. Except for leukemia, which can have an induction period (time between
exposure to the carcinogen and cancer diagnosis) of as little as 2 to 7 years, most
cancers have an induction period of more than 20 years.
For uniform irradiation of the body, cancer incidence varies among organs and tissues;
the thyroid and skin demonstrate a greater sensitivity than other organs. Such cancers,
however, also produce relatively low mortality rates because they are relatively
amenable to medical treatment. Because fatal cancer is the most serious effect of
environmental and occupational radiation exposures, estimates of cancer fatalities,
rather than cancer incidence, are presented in this appendix. The numbers of fatal
cancers can be used to compare risks among the various alternatives.
Based on the preceding discussion, the number of fatal cancers to workers and the
general public for postulated accidents in which individual doses are less than 20 rem is
calculated using a health risk estimator of 0.0006 per person-rem. The risk estimator
B-10
Appendix B
associated with total cancer incidence among the public is 0.0008 per person-rem (DOE
2002).
The fatal cancer estimators are used to calculate the statistical expectation of the
effects of exposing a population to radiation. For example, if 100,000 people were each
exposed to a one-time radiation dose of 100 millirem (0.1 rem), the collective dose
would be 10,000 person-rem. The exposed population would then be expected to
experience six additional cancer fatalities from the radiation (10,000 person-rem ×
0.0006 lifetime probability of cancer fatalities per person-rem = 6 cancer fatalities).
Calculations of the number of excess fatal cancers associated with radiation exposure
do not always yield whole numbers. These calculations may yield numbers less than
one, especially in environmental impact applications. For example, if a population of
100,000 were exposed to a total dose of only 0.001 rem per person, the collective dose
would be 100 person-rem (100,000 persons × 0.001 rem = 100 person-rem). The
corresponding estimated number of cancer fatalities would be 0.06 (100 person-rem ×
0.0006 cancer fatalities per person-rem = 0.06 cancer fatalities). The 0.06 means that
there is 1 chance in 16.6 that the exposed population would experience 1 fatal cancer.
In other words, 0.06 cancer fatalities are the expected number of deaths that would
result if the same exposure situation were applied to many different groups of 100,000
people. In most groups, no person would incur a fatal cancer from the 0.001 rem dose
each member received. In a small fraction of the groups, one cancer fatality would
result; in exceptionally few groups, two or more cancer fatalities would occur. The
average expected number of deaths over all the groups would be 0.06 cancer fatalities
(just as the average of 0, 0, 0, and 1 is ¼, or 0.25). The most likely outcome is no
cancer fatalities.
The same concept is applied to estimate radiation exposure effects on an individual
member of the public. Consider the effects of an individual’s exposure to a 300-millirem
(0.30-rem) annual dose from all natural radiation sources. The probability that the
individual would develop a fatal cancer from continuous exposure to this radiation over
an average life of 72 years (presumed) is 0.013 (one person × 0.30 rem per year ×
72 years × 0.0006 cancer fatalities per person-rem = 0.013). This corresponds to 1
chance in 77.
B-3 EFFECTS OF PLUTONIUM ON THE ENVIRONMENT
B-3.1 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this section is to describe qualitatively the factors that influence the
movement of PuO2 through the environment and into the human body in the event that
there is an accidental release of PuO2 from the spacecraft's MMRTG or LWRHUs.
B-3.2 CHEMICAL AND PHYSICAL PROPERTIES THAT ARE IMPORTANT FOR
BEHAVIOR IN THE ENVIRONMENT AND THE HUMAN BODY
In this section, the following important characteristics are discussed:
Chemical form;
Particle size distribution;
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Solubility;
Half-life; and
Decay modes.
Chemical Form
In the MMRTG for the Mars 2020 mission, the Pu-238 is present as plutonium dioxide in
ceramic form. The predominant risk pathways are those in which this material is
released as the result of ground impact and fire. It is therefore assumed that the
plutonium remains oxidized. This is important because the chemical form influences the
solubility, which, in turn, strongly influences such factors as bioaccumulation and uptake
in the human body.
Particle Size Distribution
It is also important to understand the physical form of the material, in particular the
particle size distribution, which influences: whether the material will fall to the ground in
the immediate vicinity of the accident or will be transported over long distances; the
initial deposition and subsequent resuspension of particles in both air and water;
solubility in water and in biological fluids; and whether or not the material can be inhaled
and where it will be deposited and retained within the human respiratory system.
Generally speaking, larger particles have less potential for suspension and
resuspension; as the particle size decreases, particles are more easily kept in
suspension.
The initial particle size distribution is a function of the conditions of the accident. For
example, the launch area source terms could initially be in the form of vapor as a result
of exposure to fire. The vapors would contain not only the radionuclides but also various
structural materials. The radionuclides would tend to condense with and agglomerate
with these other materials, which would then predominantly determine the
characteristics of the aerosol. The potential for uptake of inhaled particles is critically
dependent on the size of the particles (respirable particles are generally considered to
be 10 microns (10 micrometers) or less, although larger sizes can be deposited in the
upper respiratory tract).
Solubility
A number of factors affect the solubility of PuO2 in water. Physical parameters most
important to the solubility of PuO2 are the reactive surface area and oxidation state of
plutonium and the water chemistry, including pH, reduction/oxidation potential, and
temperature. The mass to surface area ratios of particles affect the reactivity and
solubility, with solubility being inversely related to particle size. In general, PuO2 is
insoluble.
Because PuO2 is so insoluble, movement through the environment depends on physical
processes. PuO2 may be carried into the soil by a number of routes, including the
percolation of rainfall and subsequent leaching of particles into the soil, animal
burrowing activity, and plowing or other disturbance of the soil by humans. Migration of
B-12
Appendix B
the PuO2 into the soil column is of concern, primarily because of the potential for PuO2
to reach groundwater aquifers used as drinking water suppliers. Once deposited on soil,
however, PuO2 appears to be extremely stable. Soil profile studies have shown that
generally more than 95 percent of the PuO2 from nuclear weapons fallout remained in
the top 5 centimeters (2 inches) of surface soil (in undisturbed areas) for 10 to 20 years
following deposition (DOE 1987).
Half-Life
The half-life of Pu-238 is 87.7 years. This half-life is particularly important for chronic
exposure pathways (inhalation and ingestion). Over a human lifetime (nominally
70 years), the amount of Pu-238 in the body is reduced by less than a factor of 2 due to
radioactive decay.
Decay Modes
Pu-238 is an alpha particle emitter with decay energies of about 5 million electron volts.
Its radioactive decay products are also alpha-emitters with about the same decay
energy. These alpha particles are what predominantly determine the effects on the
human body. Pu-238 can also undergo extremely unlikely spontaneous fission, but with
significantly smaller effects.
B-3.3 THE TRANSPORT OF PLUTONIUM OXIDES THROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT
This Section discusses the various ways in which plutonium can be transported through
the environment to the point at which it is taken into or irradiates the human body. The
modeling for the Mars 2020 mission encompasses both short-term (during plume
passage) and long-term (chronic exposure) pathways.
Plutonium is one of the most widely studied elements in terms of chemistry and
environmental behavior. Although its chemistry and oxidation states are quite diverse,
the element’s environmental mobility is very limited (INSRP 1989). The pathways and
the generalized behavior of plutonium in the environment are described in the literature
(e.g., Aarkrog 1977, Pinder and Doswell 1985, Pinder et al. 1987, Yang and Nelson
1984). The extent and magnitude of potential environmental impacts caused by PuO 2
releases depend on the mobility and availability of PuO2 and are directly controlled by a
number of physical and chemical parameters, including particle size, potential for
suspension, deposition and resuspension, solubility, and oxidation state of any
dissolved plutonium.
During Plume Passage
The predominant pathway during the passage of the airborne plume is inhalation. The
important parameters in this calculation are the rate of dilution of the plume as it travels
downwind, the deposition mechanisms that deplete the plume and leave radioactive
material on the ground, and the rate of inhalation. All of these parameters and
mechanisms are independent of the fact that the radionuclide in question is Pu-238. For
example, the small particle sizes arising from agglomeration onto aluminum oxide
particles (see Section B.3.2) mean that gravitational settling is not important. It is
therefore appropriate to use a standard Gaussian model for the atmospheric dispersion.
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Similarly, the small particle size means that, once it is transported to a human receptor,
it is inhaled. Work done for previous EISs shows that inhalation of the particles in the
passing plume and of resuspended particles are the two most important contributors to
the radiation dose accumulated by human receptors.
The other pathway that is potentially important during plume passage is cloud shine—
the irradiation of the human body by neutrons and gamma rays emitted by the passing
plume of radioactive material. However, because Pu-238 emits predominantly alpha
particles, this irradiation pathway is not a significant contributor to doses resulting from
potential accidents associated with the Mars 2020 Mission.
Chronic Exposure Pathways
This section considers contributions due to resuspension, ingestion of vegetables,
external exposure, seafood ingestion, and contamination of drinking water.
Resuspension
For launch area accidents, the resuspension model used in the analysis starts with an
initial resuspension factor that decreases exponentially to a constant long-term
resuspension factor (Momeni et al. 1979; Strenge and Bander 1981). For materials
deposited after traveling more than 100 kilometers (62 miles) from the source of a
release, or released high in the atmosphere, the resuspension factor is at all times
typically similar to the long-term resuspension factor (Bennett 1976, UNSCEAR 1982).
The work done in previous EISs shows that resuspension is the most significant of the
chronic exposure pathways and is comparable to or larger in its effects on humans than
is the direct inhalation pathway.
Vegetable Ingestion
Parameters used for estimating the uptake from harvesting and consumption of
agricultural products has been measured (Baes et al. 1984, Rupp 1980, Yang and
Nelson 1984). These and similar agricultural and food consumption parameters and
plutonium ingestion parameters (ICRP 1979) are used as the basis for estimating
human doses via ingestion. For example, an analysis of Pu-238 contamination of
orange trees shows that a total of only 1 percent of the plutonium actually aerially
deposited on the plants would be transported on fruit from field to market during the 12
months following harvesting (Pinder et al. 1987). Most of this plutonium would adhere to
the fruit’s peel and would be removed prior to ingestion; uptake to the orange itself
would be extremely small or nonexistent.
Four mechanisms of vegetable ingestion were taken into account, as described below.
1. Initial deposition immediately following the accident: The amount initially
deposited per curie released depends on non-PuO2 specific factors such as particle
size distribution and characteristics of the vegetation. The predicted amount of
radioactive material ingested by humans then depends on assumptions about
physical mechanisms and vegetable distribution, such as: the removal half-life for
leaf-deposited material, a leaf interception factor, and a vegetable density.
Additionally, harvesting (whether continuous or delayed) and consumption
B-14
Appendix B
B-15
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
freshwater fish, saltwater fish, mollusks), the amount and particle size distribution of
radioactive material released, and the deposition area.
PuO2 entering into a water/sediment system would be preferentially taken out of
solution and bound in saturated sediments in amounts on the order of 100,000 times
greater than the amounts that would remain in the associated water column
(NASA 1990).
Clays, organics, and other anionic constituents tend to bind most of the PuO 2 particles
in the sediment column. The binding of PuO2 usually occurs in the first few centimeters
of sediment, greatly reducing the concentration of this constituent with depth.
Overall, the seafood pathway is insignificant for PuO2. This is due to a combination of
considerable dilution in the water, overwhelming partition into sediment, and small
bioaccumulation factors.
Contamination of Drinking Water
It is possible that surface water runoff containing PuO2 could directly contaminate
drinking water supplies that originate from surface water bodies, because this type of
contamination is primarily due to suspended PuO2 particles and not from dissolved
PuO2. Filtering the surface water before chemical treatment would reduce the
concentration of total plutonium to very low levels (NASA 1990).
B-3.4 TRANSPORT AND DEPOSITION OF RADIONUCLIDES IN THE HUMAN
BODY
The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has developed
accepted models for the distribution of inhaled and ingested radionuclides in the body.
The ultimate fate of these radionuclides depends on such factors as particle size
distribution, solubility, and chemistry. The ICRP models require knowledge of numerous
parameters, most of which are obtained empirically (e.g., there is no theoretical model
for determining what fraction of ingested plutonium enters the bloodstream). The
required parameters are obtained from animal experiments and, if available, from
human studies concerning the effects of nuclear weapons and of nuclear fallout. Of the
transuranium elements, plutonium is by far the most widely studied.
PuO2 that enters the human body by inhalation or ingestion has many possible fates, all
of which have been studied in detail (ICRP 1979; ICRP 1986). The inhalation route is
found to be approximately 1,000 times as effective as ingestion in transporting
plutonium to the blood, due to the short time of residency, the chemical properties of
plutonium, and the physiological environment of the gastro-intestinal tract (ICRP 1979).
Ingested PuO2 would quickly pass through the digestive system and be excreted with
only a small quantity being absorbed via the mucosa into the bloodstream. The
fractional absorption of PuO2 is estimated to average about 1 part in 100,000 ingested
(ICRP 1979; ICRP 1986) – that is, in ICRP terminology, the f1 factor for ingestion is 10-5.
The fractional absorption is based on the average individual. Note that PuO2 in the
environment could become more soluble with time due to the use of fertilizers in
gardening, chlorination in drinking water, and conversion to soluble forms in seawater.
B-16
Appendix B
Dietary and physiological factors, such as fasting, dietary calcium deficiency, disease or
intake of medications, may also change the fractional absorption (ICRP 1986).
Inhaled PuO2 would be transported to one or more portions of the respiratory system
depending on the particle size. Generally, most particles larger than 5 to 10 microns
would be intercepted in the nasopharyngeal region and either expelled or swallowed to
pass through the digestive tract; what is not absorbed would then be excreted. Particles
smaller than about 5 microns would be transported to and remain in the trachea,
bronchi, or deep lung regions. Particles reaching the deep lung would be cleared from
the body much more slowly than those not entering the lung. For example, approximate
micrometer-size PuO2 particles would typically be cleared from the pulmonary area of
the lung at the rate of 40 percent in the first day, and the remaining 60 percent cleared
in 500 days (ICRP 1979). Particles captured in the mucous lining of the upper
respiratory tract would be moved more rapidly to the pharynx, where they would be
swallowed. Once swallowed, they would behave as if ingested.
Plutonium dioxide remaining in the lung would continuously irradiate lung tissue, and a
small fraction would be transported over time directly to the blood or to lymph nodes
and then to the blood. The estimated fraction of plutonium transferred directly from
pulmonary lung tissues to the blood would be about 1 percent of the amount retained in
the lungs, depending on the size distribution of ultra-fine particles. Smaller particles are
likely to form over time from larger particles due to the natural fragmentation processes
associated with radioactive decay and may also be transferred to the blood. Over a
period of years, approximately 15 percent of the PuO2 initially deposited in the lungs
would be transferred to the lymph nodes. Of that, up to 90 percent would likely be
retained in the lymph node with a 1,000 day half-life before being transferred to the
blood (ICRP 1986). Overall, the PuO2 f1 factor for inhalation is the same as that for
ingestion, i.e., 10-5.
Once PuO2 has entered the blood via ingestion or inhalation, it would circulate and be
deposited primarily in the liver and skeletal system. It is currently accepted that
plutonium transported by the blood is distributed to the following organs: 45 percent in
the liver, 45 percent in the skeletal system, 0.035 percent in the testes, and 0.011
percent in the ovaries, with a non-measurable amount crossing the placenta and
available for uptake by the fetus. The remaining 10 percent of the activity in the blood is
excreted through the kidneys and colon or deposited in other tissues (ICRP 1979,
ICRP 1986).
The estimated residence times in the liver, skeletal system, and gonads are quite long.
Current estimates for 50 percent removal times for plutonium are 20 years for the liver,
50 years for the skeleton, and permanent retention for the gonads.
B-4 REFERENCES FOR APPENDIX B
Aarkrog 1977. Environmental Behavior of Plutonium Accidentally Released at Thule,
Greenland. Health Physics Society Journal 32: 271-284. April 1977.
Baes et al. 1984. Baes, C., R. Sharp, A. Sjoreen, and R. Shor. A Review and Analysis
of Parameters for Assessing Transport of Environmentally Released
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
B-18
Appendix B
B-19
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
physics/Abstract/1985/11000/Retention_of_238Pu_bearing_Particles_by_Corn.9.
aspx
Pinder et al. 1987. Pinder, J., D. Adriano, T. Ciravolo, A. Doswell, and D. Yehling. The
Interception and Retention of 238Pu Deposition by Orange Trees. Health
Physics, 52:707-715. May 8, 1987. Available at: http://journals.lww.com/health-
physics/Abstract/1987/06000/The_Interception_and_Retention_of_238Pu_Depos
ition.2.aspx
Rupp 1980. Age Dependent Values of Dietary Intake for Assessing Human Exposures
to Environmental Pollutants. Health Physics Society Journal. 39:151-163. August
1980.
Strenge and Bander 1981. Strenge, D.L. and T.J. Bander. MILDOS A Computer
Program for Calculating Environmental Radiation Doses from Uranium Recovery
Operations. NUREG/CR-2011/PNL-3767. April 1981.
UNSCEAR 1982. United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic
Radiation. Ionizing Radiation: Sources and Biological Effects. New York. 1982.
Yang and Nelson 1984, Yang, Y. and Nelson, C., An Estimation of the Daily Average
Food Intake by Age and Sex for use in Assessing the Radionuclide Intake of
Individuals in the General Population. Prepared for the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Report 520/1-84-021. 1984.
B-20
Appendix C
C.
APPENDIX C
ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE ANALYSIS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
C-1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. C-1
C-2 DEFINITIONS AND APPROACH......................................................................... C-1
C-2.1 Minority Populations .................................................................................... C-1
C-2.2 Low-Income Populations ............................................................................. C-3
C-2.3 Disproportionately High And Adverse Human Health Effects ...................... C-3
C.2-4 Disproportionately High And Adverse Environmental Effects ...................... C-3
C-3 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................. C-3
C-3-1 Spatial Resolution ....................................................................................... C-3
C-3-2 Projections of Populations ........................................................................... C-3
C-3.3 Environmental Justice Assessment ............................................................. C-3
C-4 CHARACTERIZATION OF POTENTIALLY AFFECTED POPULATIONS .......... C-4
C-5 IMPACTS ON MINORITY AND LOW-INCOME POPULATIONS ........................ C-7
C-6 REFERENCES FOR APPENDIX C...................................................................... C-8
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure C-1. The Area within 100 km (62 mi) of SLC-41, LC-39a and SLC-37 ............ C-2
List of Table
Table C-1. Composition of the Population in the KSC Area ....................................... C-5
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
C-ii
Appendix C
APPENDIX C
ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE ANALYSIS
C-1 INTRODUCTION
Executive Order 12898, Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority
Populations and Low-Income Populations, directs Federal agencies to identify and
address, as appropriate, the disproportionately high and adverse health or
environmental effects of their programs, policies, and activities on minority populations
and low-income populations.
The Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) has oversight responsibility for
documentation prepared in compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act
(NEPA) of 1969, as amended (42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.). In December 1997, the CEQ
released its guidance on Environmental Justice (CEQ 1997). The CEQ’s guidance was
adopted as the basis for the information provided in this Environmental Impact
Statement (EIS) for the proposed Mars 2020 mission. The launch opportunity for the
proposed Mars 2020 mission occurs during July – August 2020 and the next opportunity
occurs 26 months later.
This appendix provides data necessary to assess the potential for disproportionately
high and adverse human health or environmental effects on minority and low-income
populations that may be associated with implementation of the Mars 2020 mission. The
areas examined in this appendix include the counties for which any part of the county is
within 100 kilometers (km) (62 miles (mi)) of either Space Launch Complex 41 (SLC-41)
located in the northernmost section of Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS),
Brevard County, Florida, Space Launch Complex 37 (SLC-37), located on the
northeastern section of CCAFS Brevard County Florida; or Launch Complex 39A (LC-
39A) located on KSC, Brevard County, Florida north and east of SLC-41 and SLC-37.
The counties that lie within 100 km (62 mi) of LC-39A and SLC-40 include Brevard,
Indian River, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Volusia, and small portions of Flagler, Lake,
and Polk (Figure C-1). The counties that lie within 100 km (62 mi) of SLC-37 include
those listed above with the exclusion of Flagler.
C-2 DEFINITIONS AND APPROACH
C-2.1 MINORITY POPULATIONS
During the Census of 2010, the U.S. Bureau of the Census (USBC) collected population
data in compliance with guidance adopted by the Office of Management and Budget (62
FR 58782). The following definitions of minority individuals and population are used in
this analysis of environmental justice:
Minority Individuals: Persons who are members of any of the following population
groups: Hispanic or Latino of any race, American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, Black
or African-American, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, or Multiracial (and at
least one race, which is a minority race under CEQ guidance of 1997).
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Figure C-1. The Area within 100 km (62 mi) of SLC-41, LC-39A and SLC-37
Minority Population: The total number of minority individuals residing within a
potentially affected area.
Persons self-designated as Hispanic or Latino are included in the Hispanic or Latino
population regardless of race. For example, Asians self-designated as Hispanic or
Latino are included in both the Hispanic or Latino population and in the Asian
population. Data used to characterize minority populations in the years 2010 and 2012
was extracted from the American Fact Finder portion of the U.S. Census Bureau 2010
census website (USBC 2013c) containing Census 2010 demographic data. Data used
for the projection of population groups in Florida for the year 2020 was projected from
the USBC's 2010 and 2012 (projected) census data for the nine surrounding counties.
C-2
Appendix C
C-3
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
C-4
Appendix C
Table C-1. Composition of the Population in the KSC Area
Region
Population
2010 2012 2020a
Total 4,008,199 4,123,015 4,633,191
White alone 3,000,817 3,150,914 3,517,600
Black or African American alone 563,524 597,053 682,502.3
American Indian and Alaska Native alone 16,119 10,080 11,225
Asian alone 117,240 123,613 142,107
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone 3,221 3,584 3,741
Some other race alone 194,124 134,859 158,873
Two or more races 113,154 102,912 117,142
Hispanic or Latino 768,264 840,134 979,685
Percent Minority 25.1% 23.6% 24.1%
Percent Low Income 13.7% — —
(a) Projected based on increase in total population by county between 2010 and 2012
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Total 297,052 303,186 329,015 1,145,956 1,202,234 1,456,375 268,685 287,416 376,341
White alone 243,624 254,060 275,704 728,795 777,502 941,859 190,641 215,200 281,781
Black or African American alone 29,103 30,197 32,770 238,241 256,542 310,773 30,369 34,793 45,558
American Indian and Alaska
1,472 993 1,078 4,532 1,874 2,270 1,452 978 1,281
Native alone
Asian alone 5,173 4,525 4,910 56,581 57,438 69,580 7,406 8,402 11,002
Native Hawaiian and Other
215 267 290 1,266 100 121 294 0 0
Pacific Islander alone
Some other race alone 10,778 5,945 6,451 77,216 72,607 87,955 27,623 18,795 24,610
Two or more races 6,687 7,199 7,812 39,325 36,171 43,817 10,900 9,248 12,109
Hispanic or Latino 36,009 39,299 42,647 308,244 339,202 410,906 122,146 137,250 179,714
Percent Minority 18.0% 16.2% 16.2% 36.4% 35.3% 35.3% 29.0% 25.1% 25.1%
Percent Low Income 11.40% - - 14.90% - - 13.90% - -
C-6
Appendix C
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
C-8
Appendix D
D.
APPENDIX D
RESPONSES TO PUBLIC REVIEW COMMENTS
LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
D-1. Comment Submissions From Agencies, Organizations, and Individuals .......... D-2
D-2. Responses to Comment Submissions Listed in Table D-1 ............................... D-3
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Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
D-ii
Appendix D
APPENDIX D
RESPONSES TO PUBLIC REVIEW COMMENTS
NASA published a Notice of Availability (NOA) of the Draft Environmental Impact
Statement (Draft EIS) for the Mars 2020 Mission in the Federal Register on June 5,
2014 (79 FR 32577). The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency published its NOA for
the Draft EIS in the Federal Register on June 6, 2014 (79 FR 32729). The Draft EIS was
mailed by NASA to about 200 potentially interested federal, state, and local agencies;
organizations; and individuals. In addition, the Draft EIS was publicly available in
electronic format on NASA’s NEPA web site. Publication of the EPA’s Draft EIS
notification (79 FR 32729) initiated the 45-day public review and comment period.
Concurrently with the Federal Register notice and the start of the comment period, print
and digital advertisements were placed in four Florida newspapers. The advertisements
had links to the NASA website where the NOA, Executive Summary, and portions or all
of the Draft EIS could be downloaded. Over 3,000 unique individuals visited the Mars
2020 EIS website. Over 400 unique individuals visited the Mars 2020 webpage that
allowed the Draft EIS to be downloaded and spent an average of over 5 minutes on the
DEIS download page.
In addition to soliciting comments for submittal by letter and e-mail, on June 26, 2014,
NASA held a virtual meeting during which the public was invited to provide comments
on the Mars 2020 DEIS. This meeting was advertised in the NOA, in local (KSC area)
digital and print news at the time of the NOA and additional digital advertisements were
placed shortly before the meeting. In addition, NASA announced the meeting through
several of NASA’s social media sites (Twitter, Facebook, and Google+) during the week
before the meeting.
The web meeting was held on June 26, 2014 from 1 to 3 PM EDT via the Adobe
Connect web meeting software. Members of the NASA Mars 2020 NEPA team
presented information about the mission and the NEPA process. Through a live
streaming chat, members of the public were able to ask questions about the mission
and the Draft EIS and to provide comments on the Draft EIS. Although general
questions on the Mars 2020 program were asked and answered, no comments
regarding the scope of the Draft EIS, the alternatives considered, or the environmental
impacts analyses were received during this meeting. The web meeting was available for
streaming video replay through the end of the comment period.
The public review and comment period closed on July 21, 2014. Ten comment
submissions (letters, emails, and by telephone) were received from two federal
agencies, one state agency, two private organizations, and five individuals.
This appendix provides specific responses to the comment submissions received from
the agencies, organizations, and individuals. Table D-1 lists the ten comment
submissions received from the federal and state agencies, two private organizations,
and five individuals. Copies of each of these submissions are presented in Table D-2.
The relevant comments in each submission are marked and numbered for identification.
The comments received included “no comment,” requests for clarification of specific
sections of text, and objections to the use of nuclear material for space missions.
NASA’s response to each identified comment is also presented in Table D-2.
D-1
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
D-2
Appendix D
Comment Response
D-3
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Comment Response
D-4
Appendix D
Comment Response
On August 13th, 2014, NASA and the EPA Region 4 office held
a conference call to clarify the EPA comment. In this call
• EPA voiced clarification of their comment as wanting
the Mars 2020 FEIS and ROD to state that EPA would be
invited to the Radiological Contingency Response.
• NASA stated that if NASA decides to go forward with
the Proposed Action, then the ROD would discuss how NASA
plans for Radiological Contingency Planning (RCP) by
complying with the National Response Plan (NRP) when
launching missions that utilize Radioisotope Power Systems.
EPA recognized that NASA is the lead agency for RCP but that
EPA would be part of it per the NRP.
• EPA stated their comment would be satisfied if the
potential future ROD stated that NASA would develop
radiological contingency plans in accordance with the NRP.
D-5
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Comment Response
D-6
Appendix D
Comment Response
D-7
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Comment Response
D-8
Appendix D
Comment Response
D-9
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Comment Response
D-10
Appendix D
Comment Response
D-11
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars 2020 Mission
Comment Response
D-12
Appendix D
Comment Response
10-6 Response: For the Mars 2020 mission the EIS considers
two alternatives with solar power options. One alternative
(Alternative 2) would make use of a solar powered rover and
the second (Alternative 3) would use solar power augmented
with the thermal output of LWRHUs. The descriptions of these
alternatives in Chapter 2 discuss the ability of a solar powered
rover (both with and without LWRHUs) to meet the science
objectives of the Mars 2020 mission.
10-7 Response: The current cost estimate for the Mars 2020
mission WKURXJKODXQFKis $1.9 billion.
10-8 Response: The U.S. Congress and the Administration
develop national budget priorities among the various Federal
agencies and programs based on many considerations related
to national interests and security. The final budget reflects
compromises and tradeoffs made when all factors and
programs are considered from the broadest perspective.
D-13