Math 203 Principles of Transportation Engineering

Topic 4 Introduction to Travel Demand Forecasting

Forecast Evaluation
GROUP 4
 Compiling data on the network (including
Travel Demand Forecasting transport zone, links, and nodes) and O/D
travel volume within the current base year’s
 Is the process used to predict travel behavior
land use patterns.
and resulting demand for a specific future time
 Conducting the base year’s network (including
frame, based on assumptions dealing with land
use, the number and character of trip makers, transport zone, links, and nodes) and O/D
and the nature of the transportation system. travel volume as close as possible to reality.
 A task the policy-maker must often face is to  Predicting future transport demand on target
make a choice between various transportation year zones, links, and nodes) and O/D travel
scenarios. One of the procedures available to volume within the current base year.
help make this decision is Travel Demand  For the prediction to be correct, the future
Forecasting general conditions need to stay largely the
 Transport demand forecasting is to predict same from the standpoint of travel patterns.
future transport demand when establishing Reflecting all long-term changes of passenger
transport plans within a given budget. patterns is rather limited.
 Since transport demand closely interacts with  Accurate prediction on the change of target
socioeconomic environment and land use, year conditions need to stay largely the same
future socioeconomic indexes and land use from the travel pattern in the transport demand
patterns need to be estimated first. forecast.
 The forecast is based on current travel patterns Process of Transport Demand Forecast
of transport systems and under the assumption
that general conditions will not greatly change.
Therefore, drastic or detailed changes can
result in prediction errors.
Transport Forecasts
 Transport demand is a quantitative input to
evaluate supply strategy of transport facilities
and land use planning.
 Presented as travel volume based on transport
system usage, including transport facilities and
transport services.
 The derived demand was created by
continuous interaction of transport systems and
activity systems.
Usage
 Transport demand forecasting is used as FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
important basic data to evaluate the efficiency
of transport facility supply and transport policy, Transport demand rough estimation method
such as road construction, public transport  Main models can be a trend extension method
introduction, and transport demand and elasticity of demand method.
management implementation.  Required time and cost is minor for this
 It is also used to evaluate land use plans by method, but it only gives a rough prediction with
estimating travel volume according to the low accuracy.
change of land use patterns within a given
transport system.
Trend extension method trips or the origin end of non-home-based trips
is considered to have produced the trip, while
 Use of previous year’s data to predict
the destination zone where an out-of-home
performance-based traffic demand for target activity will be undertaken is considered to have
year.
 Applying trend lines (linear, exponent,
logarithm, multinomial, moving average) of
previous transport demand.
Elasticity of demand method
 Using sensitivity of transport demand according
to changes of transport systems or facilities.
 Predicting transport demand using elasticity of
demand, which is the volume change of
transport demand according to the change of
transport facility systems.
SEQUENTIAL TRANSPORT DEMAND MODEL attracted the trip.

 The traditional four-step transport demand

model is the typical sequential sequential Trip distribution:
model. This model predicts transport demand,  build cross-travel volume between transport
assuming passengers make decisions through zones by distributing trip generation and arrival.
sequential choices.  uses characteristics of the transportation
 This is currently the most common transport network and regional demographics to
demand forecast method. An accurate distribute the trip ends from the generation
description is possible by verifying the results of model to specific origins and destinations
each step. amongst the states TAZs.
 The four steps of this model are:  Trip distribution models are used to predict the
 Trip Generation spatial pattern of trips or other flows between
 Trip Distribution origins and destinations. Models similar to
 Mode Choice those applied for trip distribution are often used
 Trip Assignment to model commodity flows, retail trade, and
Trip generation: store patronage.

 estimate trip production and trip attraction of

transport zone by using socioeconomic
indexes.
 provides the connection between land use and
travel. It uses known relationships between trip
making and demographics to predict the
number of person trips, or ‘trip ends’, starting
and ending in particular geographic areas,
called ‘traffic analysis zones’ (TAZs).
 The goal of trip generation is to predict the
number of trips, by purpose, that are generated
by and attracted to each zone in a study area.
Trip generation is performed by relating the
number or frequency of trips to the Mode choice:
characteristics of the individuals, of the zone,
 subdivide cross-travel volume between
and of the transportation network. The zone
transport zones for each mode of transport that
that contains the home end of home-based
users can choose.
  The allocation of person and vehicle trips to a basis for benefits estimation and air quality
particular travel mode occurs in the mode impacts. The traffic assignment model is also
choice model. Using Level of Service used to generate the estimates of network
characteristics of each available transportation performance that are used in the mode choice
system, the model ‘chooses’ a mode of travel
for each trip based on the relative
attractiveness of each competing mode.
 Mode choice models are used to analyze and
predict the choices that individuals or groups of
individuals make in selecting the transportation
modes that are used for particular types of
trips. Typically, the goal is to predict the share
or absolute number of trips made by mode. An
important objective in mode choice modeling is
to predict the share of trips attracted to public
transportation.

and trip distribution or destination choice stages

of many models.

FOUR-STEP TRANSPORT DEMAND FORECAST

PROCESS

Trip assignment:
 generate reasonable paths between transport
zones and assign travel volume of each mode
of transport to those paths.
 Travel assignment or trip assignment is the
process in which the volumes on the
transportation system are estimated. These can
be present-day volumes on an existing network
or forecasted volumes on alternative future
systems. Assignment volumes may be
expressed as vehicles on a highway network or
persons on a transit system.
 Traffic assignment models are used to estimate
the traffic flows on a network
 Traffic assignment is a key element in the
urban travel demand forecasting process. The
traffic assignment model predicts the network
flows that are associated with future planning
scenarios, and generates estimates of the link
travel times and related attributes that are the
Integrated model GROUP 4:
The integrated model predicts transport demand by Eunice F. Gagno
integrating all or some of the four-step demand forecast
Angel Lou Ambong
process.
Jehad Salendab
Different integrated models include trip generation-
mode share, trip distribution-mode share, trip Suzette Mae Vicente
distribution-trip assignment, and direct demand
Louie Jay Sion
Activity-based model
John Pablo Balce
This model was recently tried out in order to overcome
the limits of travel-based four-step models.
Analyzes actives and trips derived from activities of
individuals or households for each time period, mode of
transport, transport networks, and other conditions.
It takes great amount of data and time to build this
model. The exact methodology of building the model
has not yet been proposed.
Many types of models (single activity, Portland, activity
condition, regulation-based, active population in specific
time and space) are being developed.

Reference
Jeonghyun RHO, 1999, Transport Plan, Nanam
Publishing House.
Yongtaek LIM, Seunggeol Baek, Jingi Eom,
Hyunmyeong Kim, Jun Lee, Jingyeong Park, 2013,
Transport Plan, Cheong Moon Gak Publisher.
Daesik YUN, 2010, Transport Demand Analysis,
Pakyoungsa.
Jemu WON, 2010, Easy Urban Transport, Pakyoungsa.
Gangwon LIM, 1997, Urban Transport Plan, Seoul
University Press.