N ATIONAL U NIVERSITY OF S INGAPORE

D EPARTMENT OF S TATISTICS AND DATA S CIENCE

ST2334 P ROBABILITY AND S TATISTICS
M ID - SEMESTER T EST S AMPLE PAPER 1
(S EMESTER I, AY 2023/2024)
T IME A LLOWED : 60 MINUTES

Suggested Solutions

I NSTRUCTIONS TO S TUDENTS

1. Please write your student number only. Do not write your name.

2. This assessment contains 15 questions and comprises 7 printed pages.

3. The total marks is 25; marks are equal distributed for all questions.

4. Please answer ALL questions.

5. Calculators may be used.

6. This is an OPEN BOOK assessment. Only HARD COPIES of materials are allowed.
 ST2334

1. M ULTIPLE R ESPONSE : C HOOSE ALL ANSWERS THAT APPLY

Which of the following can be used as the sample space for the problem: “choose two
students from four students to complete a project”? Assume students are labeled as
S1 , S2 , S3 , and S4 .
n
(a) (S1 , S2 ), (S1 , S3 ), (S1 , S4 ), (S2 , S1 ), (S2 , S3 ), (S2 , S4 ),
o
(S3 , S1 ), (S3 , S2 ), (S3 , S4 ), (S4 , S1 ), (S4 , S2 ), (S4 , S3 ) .
n o
(b) {S1 , S2 }, {S1 , S3 }, {S1 , S4 }, {S2 , S3 }, {S2 , S4 }, {S3 , S4 } .
n o
(c) {S1 , S1 }, {S1 , S2 }, {S1 , S3 }, {S1 , S4 }, {S2 , S2 }, {S2 , S3 } .
n o
(d) S1 , S2 , S3 , S4 , S5 , S6

S OLUTION
(a), (b). (a) corresponds to the sample space that order is considered; (b) corresponds to
the sample space that order is not considered.
2. F ILL IN THE BLANK

In how many ways can 3 oaks, 4 pines, and 2 maples be arranged along a property line if
one does not distinguish among trees of the same kind?
(Provide your answer in numerical form.)
S OLUTION  
9
Choose 3 places out of 9 slots to plant oaks: ; and there are 6 slots left. Then choose
3
4 slots out the rest 6 slots to plant 4 pines;
  and there are 2 slots left. Then choose 2 slots
2
out the rest 2 slots to plant 2 maples: . In total, the number of ways is
2
     
9 6 2 9! 6! 9!
· · = ·1 = = 1260.
3 4 2 6!3! 4!2! 3! · 4! · 2!

3. M ULTIPLE C HOICE : C HOOSE ONE ANSWER ONLY

A new Covid test kit detects the virus 90% of the time if a patient is infected. However,
it also detects the virus 5% of the time if a patient is uninfected. Given that the overall
Covid infection rate is 1%, what is the probability of being infected if your test kit detects
the virus?

(a) 0.114 (c) 0.154

(b) 0.215 (d) 0.322

S OLUTION
Let T = Tested Covid; D = Diseased, then

P(T |D) = 0.9, P(T |D′ ) = 0.05, P(D) = 0.01.

2
 ST2334

Therefore
P(T |D)P(D)
P(D|T ) =
P(T |D)P(D) + P(T |D′ )P(D′ )
0.9 × 0.01
= = 0.154.
0.9 × 0.01 + 0.05 × 0.99
Thus, the answer is (c).

4. M ULTIPLE C HOICE : C HOOSE ONE ANSWER ONLY

Suppose P(F) = P(G) = 0.4. Which of the following statements must be true?

(a) P(F ∪ G) = 0.8

(b) P(F ∪ G) = 0.4
(c) P(F ∪ G) > 0.4
(d) P(F ∪ G) ≤ 0.8

S OLUTION
Answer: (d).

5. M ULTIPLE C HOICE : C HOOSE ONE ANSWER ONLY

There are 10 women and 20 men in a class. Find the number of samples of three that can
be formed with two women and one man.
     
30 10 20
(a) (c) ·
3 2 1
       
30 10 30 20
(b) · (d) ·
1 2 2 1

S OLUTION
Answer: (c).

6. M ULTIPLE C HOICE : C HOOSE ONE ANSWER ONLY

Player A has entered a golf tournament but it is not certain whether B will enter. Player
A has probability 1/6 of winning the tournament if player B enters, and probability 3/4 of
winning if player B does not enter the tournament. If the probability that player B enters
is 1/3, what is the probability that player A wins the tournament?

(a) 5/9 (c) 3/7

(b) 7/9 (d) 9/11

S OLUTION
(a)
Let A = {Player A wins the game}, B = {Player B enters the game}.
From the conditions, we have P(A|B) = 1/6, P(A|B′ ) = 3/4, P(B) = 1/3.

3
 ST2334

Hence, P(B′ ) = 1 − P(B) = 2/3. Applying the law of total probability, we have
3 2 1 1
P(A) = P(A|B′ )P(B′ ) + P(A|B)P(B) = · + · = 5/9.
4 3 6 3

7. M ULTIPLE C HOICE : C HOOSE ONE ANSWER ONLY

Suppose that A and B are any two events where P(A) = 0.4 and P(A ∩ B) = 0.2. Then
P(A|B) =?

(a) 0.4 (c) Not enough information to determine

(b) 0.5 (d) None of the above

S OLUTION
Answer: (c).
8. T RUE /FALSE

Probability density function can not take on values greater than 1.

• TRUE
• FALSE
S OLUTION
FALSE.
9. F ILL IN THE BLANK

Suppose that random variable X has the cumulative distribution function given by


 0, x<0
 2
x
F(x) = , 0 ≤ x ≤ 10

 100
 1, x > 10
Compute P(X ≥ 4).
(Provide your answer in decimal form and round it to two decimal places if necessary.)
S OLUTION
P(X ≥ 4) = 1 − P(X < 4) = 1 − F(4) = 1 − 42 /100 = 0.84.
10. M ULTIPLE C HOICE : C HOOSE ONE ANSWER ONLY

Let X be a random variable, whose cumulative distribution function is given by



 0, x<0
 0.2, 0 ≤ x < 2


F(x) = 0.6, 2 ≤ x < 3 .
0.7, 3 ≤ x < 5




1 x≥5


Then P(1 ≤ X < 5) =?

4
 ST2334

(a) 0.1 (c) 0.5

(b) 0.4 (d) 0.8

S OLUTION
(c).
P(1 ≤ X < 5) = P(X < 5) − P(X < 1) = F(5−) − F(1−) = 0.7 − 0.2 = 0.5.
11. M ULTIPLE C HOICE : C HOOSE ONE ANSWER ONLY

The continuous random variable X has the following probability density function
1
(
(1 + 3x), 0 ≤ x ≤ 2
fX (x) = 8
0, elsewhere
The median of a continuous random variable Y , denoted by mY , is a real number satisfy-
ing P(Y ≤ mY ) = 0.5. What is the median of X?

(a) 4/3 (c) 1

(b) 2/3 (d) 5/3

S OLUTION
For any x ∈ [0, 2],
Z x  
1 1 3 2
P(X ≤ x) = (1 + 3t)dt = x+ x .
0 8 8 2
Set P(X ≤ mX ) = 0.5,
 
1 3 2
mX + mX = 0.5,
8 2
which leads to mX = 4/3 or mX = −2 (removed because mX ∈ [0, 2]).
The answer is (a).
12. F ILL IN THE BLANK

The probability function for random variable X is given by


 x, 0≤x≤1
f (x) = 0.5, 2 ≤ x ≤ 3
0, elsewhere


Compute E(X).
(Provide your answer in decimal form and round it to two decimal places if necessary.)
S OLUTION

Z 1 Z 3
E(X) = x · xdx + x · 0.5dx = 1/3 + 5/4 = 1.58.
0 2

5
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13. F ILL IN THE BLANK

A service station has both self-service and full-service islands. On each island, there is a
single regular unleaded pump with two hoses. Let X denote the number of hoses being
used on the self-service island at a particular time, and let Y denote the number of hoses
on the full-service island in use at that time. The joint probability mass function of X and
Y is given in the table below.

y
x
0 1 2
0 0.10 0.04 0.02
1 0.08 0.20 0.06
2 0.06 0.14 0.30

Compute P(X +Y ≥ 2).

(Provide your answer in decimal form and round it to two decimal places if necessary.)
S OLUTION
0.78
The cells in the table that corresponds to X + Y ≥ 2 is highlighted in red in the table
below.

y
x
0 1 2
0 0.10 0.04 0.02
1 0.08 0.20 0.06
2 0.06 0.14 0.30

By adding up these numbers, we obtain P(X +Y ≥ 2) = 0.78

14. T RUE /FALSE

Let f (x, y) be the joint probability function of a random vector (X,Y ) (discrete or con-
tinuous). If fX (1) > 0, then there must exist a y such that f (1, y) > 0.

• TRUE
• FALSE

S OLUTION
TRUE
If otherwise and it is a discrete RV, we have fX (1) = ∑ fX (1, y) = 0.
y∈RY
Z ∞ Z ∞
If otherwise and it is a continuous RV, we have fX (1) = f (1, y)dy = 0dy = 0.
−∞ −∞

15. The joint probability function of (X,Y ) is given by

1
(
(x + y) 0 ≤ x ≤ 2; 0 ≤ y ≤ 2
f (x, y) = 8
0 elsewhere

6
 ST2334

Compute P(Y ≥ 1|X = 1).

(Provide your answer in decimal form and round it to three decimal places if necessary.)
S OLUTION
0.625
The marginal density of X is given by
Z 2
1 1 1
fX (x) = (x + y)dy = (2x + 2) = (x + 1).
0 8 8 4
The conditional probability function

f (1, y) 1
fY |X (y|x = 1) = = (1 + y).
fX (1) 4

Therefore
2
y2
Z 2 
1 1
P(Y ≥ 1|X = 1) = (1 + y)dy = y+ = 0.625.
1 4 4 2 1

E ND OF PAPER