Derivatives view

September 22, 2023

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Intraday... Derivatives Strategy
Action Scrip Target 1 Target 2 Stoploss Time frame Underlying Action
Buy BRIIND Sept Fut at | 4555-4561 Britannia Industries Limited 4603.0 4670.5 4513.0 Intraday Shree Cement Buy
Sell RBLBAN Sept Fut at | 226.3-227.3 Rbl Bank 225.0 222.3 228.6 Intraday

Daily view Duration : 1-2 months

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Positional... Gujarat Gas Buy
Action Scrip Target Stoploss Time frame Status

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Buy SHRCEM Sept Fut at | 26850.0 - 26950.0 Shree Cement 29000.0 25790.0 Weekly Open
Sell SIEMEN Sept Fut at | 3832.0 -3845.0 Siemens 3680.0 3921.0 Weekly Profit Booked Duration : 1-3 months

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Research Analysts
Dipesh Dedhia Siddhesh Jain
Raj Deepak Singh
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Intraday Outlook: Sell Bank Nifty in the range of 44700-44800

Nifty ❖ The Nifty is expected to open lower on the back of weak global clues. For the day,

Derivatives View
Close Pvs Close % Change Nifty is likely to have a volatile session. On the downside, we believe levels near
Spot 19742.35 19901.40 -0.80% 19550 are likely to act as support. On the higher side, 19800 may act as
Future 19778.70 19972.05 -0.97% immediate hurdle area.
Basis 36 71 -
OI (Lakhs) 114.09 113.85 0.21% ❖ Sell Nifty 19900 Call option (September 28 expiry) in the range of | 55-57 Target: |
PCR 0.87 0.88 - 37 Stop loss: | 70

Bank Nifty
❖ The Bank Nifty continue to underperform Nifty for the third consecutive session. On
Close Pvs Close % Change the futures front, sizeable short build-up was seen as OI rose by 20%. We believe,
Spot 44623.85 45384.60 -1.68% that Bank Nifty is likely to remain under pressure as long as it sustains below 45000
levels.

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Future 44759.25 45557.45 -1.75%
Basis 135 173 -
OI (Lakhs) 23.19 19.24 20.56%
❖ Sell Bank Nifty future in the range of 44700-44800 Target: 44300-44200 Stop loss:
45000
Pivot Level
Nifty Future Bank Nifty Future
❖ FIIs sold | 3007 crore while DIIs bought | 1158 crore in the cash segment. FIIs have
sold index futures worth | 880 crores while in index options they sold | 32050
S2 19628 44147
crores. In stock futures segment, they sold | 856 crores.
S1 19685 44385
Pivot 19767 44831
R1 19824 45070 ❖ Stocks in F&O Ban: Balrampur Chini, BHEL, DeltaCorp, Hindustan Copper, Indiabulls
R2 19906 45515 Housing Finance, Manappuram Finance, PNB, & ZEE.

Note: Index calls may be changed, if view differs during market hours and positional recommendations given in Derivatives Strategy should not be linked to intraday index/stock calls.
Source: NSE, Seediff, Bloomberg ICICI Direct Research
September 22, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Nifty 20000 Call strike holds substantial OI…

Nifty Weekly Option OI Distribution Bank Nifty Weekly Option OI Distribution

100 Call OI Put OI 40 Call OI Put OI
35
80

OI in Lacs
30
OI in Lacs

60 25
20
40
15

20 10
5
0
0

19900

20000
19500

19600

19700

19800

44100

44400

44700

45000
44200

44300

44500

44600

44800

44900

45100
❖ In Nifty, 20000 Call strike holds noteworthy OI of ~80 lakhs ❖ In Bank Nifty, 45000 Call strike holds noteworthy OI of ~34

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

shares. lakh shares.

❖ Among Put strikes, 19500 strike holds sizeable OI of ~61 lakhs ❖ While on the Put side , 44500 strike holds meaningful OI of ~
shares. 18 lakh shares

Long Buildup Short Buildup Long Unwinding Short Covering

Name Price (%) OI(%) Name Price (%) OI(%) Name Price (%) OI(%) Name Price (%) OI(%)
MCX 1.55% 10.48% RBLBANK -2.41% 10.22% PFC -0.31% -7.95% ASIANPAINT 1.05% -5.90%
INFY 0.39% 3.24% GLENMARK -3.60% 9.80% PNB -1.64% -7.65% BRITANNIA 0.35% -5.76%
BPCL 0.58% 2.50% M&MFIN -3.07% 6.95% SBILIFE -1.05% -4.99% OFSS 0.71% -5.30%
LTTS 0.63% 1.90% GUJGASLTD -1.37% 6.32% INDIACEM -4.19% -4.89% TECHM 1.22% -3.14%
ACC 0.84% 1.75% HCLTECH -1.71% 5.23% BALRAMCHIN -4.66% -4.35% BHEL 0.44% -3.01%

Source: NSE, Seediff, Bloomberg ICICI Direct Research

September 22, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 3
Recommendation with historical price performance…

i) Britannia Industries Limited (CMP: 4558) ii) Rbl Bank (CMP: 226.8)
Buy BRIIND Sept Fut at | 4555-4561 Sell RBLBAN Sept Fut at | 226.3-227.3
Target 1: 4603 Target 2: 4670.5 Target 1: 225 Target 2: 222.3
Stop Loss: 4513 Stop Loss: 228.6
5700 300

5200 250

4700
200
4200
150
3700
100

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

3200

2700 50

2200 0

22-Jul-22

22-Jul-23
22-Jan-23
22-Nov-21

22-Jan-22

22-Nov-22
22-Sep-21

22-Mar-22

22-Mar-23
22-Sep-22
21-Jul-23
21-Jan-22

21-Jul-22

21-Nov-22

21-Jan-23

22-May-22

22-May-23
21-Nov-21
21-Sep-21

21-Mar-22

21-Sep-22
21-May-22

21-Mar-23

21-Sep-23
21-May-23

Strategy Follow-up
Date Stock View Strategy Reco Target SL P&L Comment
21-Sep-23 DRLAL Buy Long Fut 2426.2 2501.2 2396.2 - Not initiated
21-Sep-23 JSWSTE Sell Short Fut 789.5 772.8 796.2 14850.0 Profit Booked

Source: NSE, Seediff, Bloomberg ICICI Direct Research

September 22, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 4
Weekly Recommendation

Weekly future recommendations:

Derivatives Weekly View

1) Buy SHREE CEMENTS LTD ( SHRCEM ) SEP in the range of 26850-26950 Target 29000 and StopLoss 25790.
Rationale

The select cement stocks has been witnessing buying over the past few days and that has reflected in delivery volumes. We believe stocks like
Shree cement is better placed for another 4-5% upsides in ongoing up-move. In last two weeks the stock outperformed the headline indices,
and also relatively outperformed its peers. Currently the leverage in the stock is relatively low and risk reward seems quite favorable as Put
writers were active at 26000 strikes, we feel fresh positions may attract at current levels and push stock towards 29000 levels

2) Sell SIEMENS LTD ( SIEMEN ) SEP in the range of 3832-3845 Target 3680 and StopLoss 3921.

Rationale

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Capital goods stocks did better last month where Siemens made a high near 4000 levels. However, the stock has failed to move above 4000
levels once again and it gave up its last week gains due to liquidation in the long positions. On the options front, the stock has given close below
its Put base of 3900 along with significant Call writing at ATM and near ATM strikes of 4000. With expectations of limited upside, we believe the
stock will continue its underperformance and move towards 3680 levels in the coming session.

Strategy Follow up
Underlying View Strategy Reco Target Stoploss Profit/Loss Comment
Apollo Tyre Bearish Buy Futures 385 368 395 11750 Profit Booked
Federal Bank Bullish Sell Futures 148 156 142.9 -25500 Stoploss triggered

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

September 22, 2023 5
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Nifty likely to move towards 20500 levels…

• Nifty continued its positive momentum in September so far and closed the week with more than 1.5% gains outperforming broader markets. Midcap
and Small Cap indices managed to close flat after sharp declines seen on Monday. Banking and Technology heavyweights led the market move
despite continued FIIs selling in equities. Going ahead, we expect Nifty to trade with positive and move towards 20500 levels in coming sessions led
by banking heavyweights.
• From the data perspective, FIIs continue to increased their longs in index futures and their net longs have increased to almost 60,000 contracts
suggesting ongoing positive bias. For any change of bias, we need to look at closure among these positions. Also, due to change in expiry schedule,
open interest has increased significantly in index options. However, considering ongoing trend and noteworthy option writing at ATM Put strikes, we
expect Nifty to remain positive till it is holding above 20000 levels.
• Most of the banking heavyweights are trading near their highest Call base. We believe banking space will be the key for continued market momentum
and expect them to take lead. On the other hand, FMCG and OMC stocks have closed the week on a weak note and immediate recovery seems
unlikely.

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

• After a round of short covering among index options, India VIX moved beyond 12 but subsided once again. We believe positive bias in the market
should remain intact till it is not moving beyond 12 levels once again
Nifty options OI build-up
80
70 Call OI Put OI
60
50
OI in Lacs

40
30
20
10
0
19700 19800 19900 20000 20100 20200 20300 20400

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

September 22, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 6
Bank Nifty likely to cross its life highs

• Bank Nifty took the lead and outperformed Nifty with gains of over 2% last week and almost tested its life highs. Heavyweights from PSU as well
private sector observed buying momentum. Apart from the PSU banks the rest of the PSU from the other sectors have witnessed significant volatility
last week. We expect the ongoing momentum in PSU and private banks may continue which help Bank Nifty to head towards 46500 levels in coming
sessions.
• The options concentration in Bank Nifty is placed at ATM 46000 Put and 46500 Call strikes. Due to sharp move seen in last few sessions, Call writers
seems to be stuck in Bank Nifty. Considering truncated next week, the covering move may continue in the banking index till it is holding above 45800
levels. On higher side, momentum might be seen above life high levels.
• Index heavyweights HDFC Bank has seen good short covering move in last few sessions and was major driver in the recent Bank Nifty up move.
Moreover, PSU heavyweight SBI has also moved towards its Call base of 600. Hence, continued short covering move in these stocks should trigger
further momentum in the banking index.
• Due to trading holiday on Tuesday, Fin Nifty settlement will be on Monday along with midcap Nifty. Considering continued writing at 20400 Put, we

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

believe settlement above these levels. Only a move below these levels may trigger some large directional move in Financial Nifty.
Bank Nifty weekly options OI build-up
4000

3500 Put OI Call OI

3000
OI in Thousands

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
45600

45800

45900

46100

46200

46300

46400

46600

46700
45700

46000

46500
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
September 22, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 7
Domestic flows helped index to turn positive…

• Risk assets remained quite volatile amid appreciating Dollar and increased bond yields. While Dollar index closed at its highest levels since March after
another rate hike by ECB. As a result, both equities and commodities plunged on Friday and US equities have shown closed the week near their lowest levels
of the month. Safe heaven like Gold has relatively out performed despite rising bond yields. On the other hand, supply constraints helped Crude to stay afloat
near the highest levels of the year.
• In domestic markets, FIIs selling pressure eased last week and the flows remains muted. While Nifty remained largely positive throughout the week but FIIs
have bought just | 468 Crores during the week. So far in the September month, FIIs have sold nearly | 5762 crores and the outflows are seen for the first time
after continued inflows seen in previous 6 months. On the other hand, domestic institutions remained aggressive and bought nearly | 3354 crores in equities.
• In the F&O space, we have seen continued short covering from FIIs’ during the week and their net longs in the index futures has increased further to 62,000
contracts from 26,000 contracts seen last week as FIIs have bought index futures worth | 3257 crores. However, major covering was seen in stock futures
segment where shorts have declined considerably from 1.6 lac contracts to just 20,000 contracts. Also, they remain active in Index options space where FIIs
have sold contracts worth over |40,000 crores.

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

• NYMEX Crude Oil prices are likely to trade firm as long as it holds above the $87 mark. Oil prices would inch towards $94 mark amid tight supplies and hopes
of no rate hike from Fed in its next policy. Further, expectation of fresh measures from China to support the economic recovery could support the price to
stay above the $90 mark.

FII/DII buying in equities (in | crore)

FII DII
Date Index Fut Stock Fut Index Opt Cash Cash
11-Sep 788 132 -12464 150 366
12-Sep 1106 -1322 27028 -11 259
13-Sep 1269 4547 -31407 -161 850
14-Sep -186 -749 -17197 53 -51
15-Sep 280 5369 -6066 164 1939

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

September 22, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 8
Rupee: likely to appreciate back towards 82.70 levels

• Rupee depreciated this week amid higher crude oil prices and strong dollar. Dollar Index vs. US$INR
Brent crude oil futures went past the $94 mark amid supply tightness. The
dollar index hit its 6-month highs amid improved economic numbers coupled
with weakness in Euro. Further, higher CPI numbers in August has supported
the dollar to hold firm.

• USDINR is likely to face the hurdle near 83.30 and move back towards 82.70 on
expectation of correction in dollar. The rising bets of no change in key policy
rates by the Fed in its upcoming policy could limit the gains in the dollar.
Improved domestic equities along with higher forex reserves could support the
rupee to appreciate against the dollar. A move below 82.70 would weaken the
pair further towards 82.45. On the contrary, a move above 83.30 would open

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

the door towards 83.50

Weekly Pivot Levels US$INR options build-up

Futures S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
US$INR (Sep) 82.74 82.96 83.09 83.31 83.44
US$INR (Oct) 82.62 82.95 83.27 83.60 83.92
EURINR (Sep) 88.02 88.37 88.85 89.20 89.68
EURINR (Oct) 88.26 88.60 89.06 89.40 89.86
GBPINR (Sep) 102.55 102.95 103.56 103.96 104.56
GBPINR (Oct) 102.61 103.04 103.65 104.08 104.69
JPYINR (Sep) 55.91 56.14 56.58 56.81 57.25
JPYINR (Oct) 56.32 56.55 56.97 57.20 57.62

Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 9
September 22, 2023
September 22, 2023
Source: NSE, Seediff, Bloomberg ICICI Direct Research
20000
26000
32000

16000
18000
22000
24000
28000
30000

1200
1700
2200
2700
3200
3700
4200
14-Sep-21 15-Sep-21

14-Nov-21 15-Nov-21

14-Jan-22 15-Jan-22

14-Mar-22 15-Mar-22

14-May-22 15-May-22

14-Jul-22 15-Jul-22

14-Sep-22 15-Sep-22
Siemens
Shree Cement

14-Nov-22 15-Nov-22

14-Jan-23
Recommended Stocks: Historical price performance…

15-Jan-23

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

14-Mar-23
15-Mar-23

14-May-23
15-May-23
14-Jul-23
15-Jul-23
14-Sep-23
10

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

 Derivatives Strategies: Open recommendations

Date Scrip Action Recommendation

7-Sep-23 Biocon Buy Long/Short Strategy: : Buy Biocon Sept 270 Call 9- 10 & Sell 290 Call 2.5-3.5, Stop loss: 20, Target: 1, Till September expiry.
15-Sep-23 Tata consumer Buy Long/Short Strategy: : Buy Tata Consumer September future 880- 884 & Sell 920 Call 5.5- 6.5, Stop loss 854, Target 925, Time frame: till expiry.
15-Sep-23 Shree Cement Buy Positional Future : Buy SHRCEM (SHREE CEMENTS LTD) SEP in the range of 26850-26950 Target 29000 and StopLoss 25790.

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Back

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

September 22, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 11
Quant Picks: Open recommendations…

Date Scrip Action Price Target Stop Loss Last close Return at close Time Frame

16 May 23 Gujarat Gas Buy 475-485 540 440 441 -9.1% 3 months
14 Sep 23 Indusind Bank Buy 1450-1465 1590 1375 1411 -3.4% 1 month

Yearly Quant Picks

14 Dec 22 Hindalco Buy 455-470 590 380 480 3.7% 12 months
14 Dec 22 State Bank of India Buy 610-625 790 460 588 -4.8% 12 months

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Back
Source: NSE, Seediff, ICICI Direct Research
September 22, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 12
 Forthcoming Events…

Date & Tim e (IST) Country Data & Events

Monday, September 18, 2023

1:30 PM US NAHB Housing Market Index

Tuesday, September 19, 2023

2:30 PM Europe Final CPI y/y

6:00 PM US Building Permits

Wednesday, September 20, 2023

6:45 AM China 1-y & 5-y Loan Prime Rate

11:30 AM UK CPI y/y

8:00 PM US Crude Oil Inventories

11:30 PM US Federal Funds Rate

11:30 PM US FOMC Economic Projections

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Thursday, September 21, 2023

4:30 PM UK Official Bank Rate

6:00 PM US Unemployment Claims

7:30 PM US Existing Home Sales

Friday, September 22, 2023

8:30 AM Japan BOJ Policy Rate

11:30 AM UK Retail Sales y/y

1:30 PM Europe Flash Manufacturing PMI

1:30 PM Europe Flash Services PMI

2:00 PM UK Flash Manufacturing PMI

2:00 PM UK Flash Services PMI

7:30 PM US Flash Manufacturing PMI

7:30 PM US Flash Services PMI

7:30 PM
September 22, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd.US| Retail
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Equity Research 13
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
 Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
Third Floor, Brillanto House,
Road No 13, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
[email protected]

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
September 22, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 14
Disclaimer

I/We, , Raj Deepak Singh BE, MBA (Finance), Dipesh Dedhia BCOM, MBA (Finance), Siddhesh Jain, BFM, MBA (Finance) Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the
subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the
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Disclaimer

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September 22, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 16