9/5/2015 Ciencia ­ La ONU y el cambio climático

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 Hacia un acuerdo sobre el

clima

 Noticias

 Cumbre sobre el clima

2014

 Ámbitos de acción
A Strong Scientific Consensus
 Alianzas con la ONU

 Cómo el sistema de la ONU There is a strong scientific consensus that the global climate is changing and that
apoya las medidas sobre el human activity contributes significantly to this trend. The Intergovernmental Panel on
cambio climático Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report concludes, with 95 per cent certainty
that

¡Síguenos! the human influence on the climate system is clear and is

evident from the increasing greenhouse gas
   
concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative
forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the
Perspectivas de la ONU
climate system.

Every five or six years, the IPCC conducts a comprehensive report that assesses
articles that climate scientists publish in peer-reviewed scientific journals, which is
where most of the scientific debate on climate change takes place. Peer review, while
  not perfect, ensures that journals only accept articles that meet a high standard of
scientific rigor and objectivity. Several surveys of the refereed literature on climate
La ONU reporta avances en change science have confirmed that virtually all published papers accept the scientific
las negociaciones sobre basis of human-induced climate change.
cambio climático
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9/5/2015 Ciencia ­ La ONU y el cambio climático

The scientific consensus about human-induced climate change is further attested to

Lo más visto Actualidad by a joint statement signed by 11 of the world’s leading national science academies
representing Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, India, Japan, Russia, the
Iniciativa United Kingdom and the United States. Many other science bodies have issued similar
Bamboo Bikes statements.
en Ghana
11 de agosto de 2014 While the fact that humanity’s emissions of greenhouse gases contribute to climate
change is no longer in dispute, scientists continue to investigate how the climate will
respond to rising atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases over time and in the various
regions of the world.
Mecanismo Africano de
Desarrollo de Activos de
The latest IPCC assessment report, the fifth, is in the process of being released. There
Carbono (ACAD)
are four parts to the report, on the physical science, impacts and adaption, mitigation,
13 de agosto de 2014 and a synthesis report that brings together the main elements from the first three
parts.

Fase II de la Iniciativa
para el desarrollo de
empresas de energía
Working Group I: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
rural en África (AREED II)
13 de agosto de 2014
Full Report
Summary for Policymakers
Press Release– Human influence on climate
clear, IPCC report says

Major Findings

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of
the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The
atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have
diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases
have increased.

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9/5/2015 Ciencia ­ La ONU y el cambio climático

Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s
surface than any preceding decade since 1850. In the Northern Hemisphere,
1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years.

Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system,
accounting for more than 90 per cent of the energy accumulated between 1971
and 2010. It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0–700 metres) warmed
from 1971 to 2010, and it likely warmed between the 1870s and 1971.

Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been
losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea
ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in
extent.

The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the
mean rate during the previous two millennia. Over the period 1901 to 2010,
global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] metres.

The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide

have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.
Carbon dioxide concentrations have increased by 40 per cent since pre-
industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net
land use change emissions. The ocean has absorbed about 30 per cent of the
emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification.

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of
the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The
atmosphere and ocean have warmed , the amounts of snow and ice have
diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases
have increased.

Climate models have improved since the last assessment report in 2007.
Models reproduce observed continental-scale surface temperature patterns and
trends over many decades, including the more rapid warming since the mid-
20th century and the cooling immediately following large volcanic eruptions

Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the
ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in
global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes. This
evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that
human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since
the mid-20th century.

Changes in the global water cycle in response to the warming over the 21st
century will not be uniform. The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry
regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, although there may be
regional exceptions.

The global ocean will continue to warm during the 21st century. Heat will
penetrate from the surface to the deep ocean and affect ocean circulation.

It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin and
that Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover will decrease during the 21st
century as global mean surface temperature rises. Global glacier volume will
further decrease.

Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century. Under all
RCP scenarios, the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed
during 1971 to 2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of
mass from glaciers and ice sheets.

Climate change will affect carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate
the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Further uptake of carbon by the ocean will increase ocean acidification.

Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming

by the late 21st century and beyond. Most aspects of climate change will

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9/5/2015 Ciencia ­ La ONU y el cambio climático

persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This
represents a substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by
past, present and future emissions of CO2.

Working Group II Report: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilit

Full Report
Summary for Policymakers
Press Release: IPCC Report: A
changing climate creates
pervasive risks but
opportunities exist for
effective responses –
Responses will face
challenges with high
warming of the climate

Major Findings

The effects of climate change are already occurring on all continents and
across the oceans.

Glaciers continue to shrink almost worldwide due to climate change, affecting

runoff and water resources downstream. Climate change is causing permafrost
warming and thawing in high-latitude regions and in high-elevation regions.

The negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more
common than positive impacts. Climate change has negatively affected wheat
and maize yields for many regions and in the global aggregate.

Climate-related hazards affect poor people’s lives directly through impacts on

livelihoods, reductions in crop yields, or destruction of homes and indirectly
through , for example, increased food prices and food

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The world, in many cases, is ill-prepared for risks from a changing climate.

There are opportunities to respond to such risks, though the risks will be
difficult to manage with high levels of warming.

The nature of the risks of climate change is increasingly clear, though climate
change will also continue to produce surprises. The report identifies vulnerable
people, industries, and ecosystems around the world.

The risks from a changing climate comes from vulnerability (lack of

preparedness) and exposure (people or assets in harm’s way) overlapping with
hazards (triggering climate events or trends). Each of these three components
can be a target for smart actions to decrease risk.

Adaptation to reduce the risks from a changing climate is now starting to occur,
but with a stronger focus on reacting to past events than on preparing for a
changing future.

Future risks from a changing climate depend strongly on the amount of future
climate change.

Increasing magnitudes of warming will increase the likelihood of severe and

pervasive impacts that may be either surprising or irreversible.

Working Group III Report: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change

Full Report
Summary for Policymakers
Press Release: IPCC:
Greenhouse gas emissions
accelerate despite reduction
efforts– Many pathways to
substantial emissions
reductions are available

Major Findings

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9/5/2015 Ciencia ­ La ONU y el cambio climático

Global emissions of greenhouse gases have risen to unprecedented levels despite a

growing number of policies to reduce climate change.

Emissions grew more quickly between 2000 and 2010 than in each of the three
previous decades.

It is still possible, using a wide array of technological measures and changes in

behaviour, to limit the increase in global mean temperature to two degrees
Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Major institutional and technological change will give a better than even
chance that global warming will not exceed this threshold.

Scenarios show that in order to have a likely chance of limiting the increase in
global mean temperature to two degrees Celsius, global greenhouse gas
emissions would have to be lowered by 40 to 70 per cent compared with 2010
by mid-century, and to near -zero by the end of this century. Ambitious
mitigation may even require removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

In business -as-usual scenarios, consumption grows by 1.6 to 3 percent per

year. Ambitious mitigation would reduce this growth by around 0.06
percentage points a year. However, the underlying estimates do not take into
account economic benefits of reduced climate change.

Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere requires

emissions reductions from energy production and use, transport, buildings,
industry, land use, and human settlements.

Land is a key component for the 2°C goal. Slowing deforestation and planting
forests have stopped or even reversed the increase in emissions from land use.
Through afforestation, land could be used to draw carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere.

Emission reductions can also be achieved by combining electricity production

from biomass and carbon dioxide capture and storage. However, as of today
this combination is not available at scale, permanent underground carbon
dioxide storage faces challenges and the risks of increased competition for land
need to be managed.

Synthesis Report 2014

Summary for policymakers

Longer report
Presentation

Observed Changes and their Causes

Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of
greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread
impacts on human and natural systems.

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the
observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and
ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has
risen.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have increased since the pre-industrial era,
driven largely by economic and population growth, and are now higher than ever. This

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9/5/2015 Ciencia ­ La ONU y el cambio climático

has led to atmospheric

concentrations of carbon
dioxide, methane and nitrous
oxide that are unprecedented in
at least the last 800,000 years.
Their effects, together with
those of other anthropogenic
drivers, have been
detected throughout the
climate system and are
extremely likely to have been
the dominant cause of the
observed warming since the
mid-20th century.

In recent decades, changes in

climate have caused impacts on
natural and human systems on
all continents and across the
oceans. Impacts are due to
observed climate change, irrespective of its cause, indicating the sensitivity of natural
and human systems to changing climate.

Changes in many extreme weather and climate events have been observed since
about 1950. Some of these changes have been linked to human influences, including
a decrease in cold temperature extremes, an increase in warm temperature extremes,
an increase in extreme high sea levels and an increase in the number of heavy
precipitation events in a number of regions.

Future Climate Changes, Risks and Impacts

Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting
changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe,
pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems. Limiting climate change
would require substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions which,
together with adaptation, can limit climate change risks.

Cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide largely determine global mean surface

warming by the late 21st century and beyond.
Projections of greenhouse gas emissions vary over a wide range, depending on both
socio-economic development and climate policy.

Surface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century under all assessed
emission scenarios. It is very likely that heat waves will occur more often and last
longer, and that extreme precipitation events will become more intense and frequent

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9/5/2015 Ciencia ­ La ONU y el cambio climático

in many regions. The ocean will continue to warm and acidify, and global mean sea
level to rise.

Climate change will amplify existing risks and create new risks for natural and human
systems. Risks are unevenly distributed and are generally greater for disadvantaged
people and communities in countries at all levels of development.
Many aspects of climate change and associated impacts will continue for centuries,
even if anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are stopped. The risks of abrupt
or irreversible changes increase as the magnitude of the warming increases.

Future Pathways for Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development

Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies for reducing and managing the
risks of climate change. Substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades can
reduce climate risks in the 21st century and beyond, increase prospects for effective
adaptation, reduce the costs and challenges of mitigation in the longer term, and
contribute to climate-resilient pathways for sustainable development.

Effective decision making to limit climate change and its effects can be informed by a
wide range of analytical approaches for evaluating expected risks and benefits,
recognizing the importance of governance, ethical dimensions, equity, value
judgments, economic assessments and diverse perceptions and responses to risk and
uncertainty.

Without additional mitigation efforts beyond those in place today, and even with
adaptation, warming by the end of the 21st century will lead to high to very high risk
of severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts globally (high confidence). Mitigation
involves some level of co-benefits and of risks due to adverse side-effects, but these
risks do not involve the same possibility of severe, widespread, and irreversible
impacts as risks from climate change, increasing the benefits from near-term
mitigation efforts.

Adaptation can reduce the risks of climate change impacts, but there are limits to its
effectiveness, especially with greater magnitudes and rates of climate change. Taking
a longer-term perspective, in the context of sustainable development, increases the
likelihood that more immediate adaptation actions will also enhance future options
and preparedness.

There are multiple mitigation pathways that are likely to limit warming to below 2°C
relative to pre-industrial levels. These pathways would require substantial emissions
reductions over the next few decades and near zero emissions of carbon dioxide and
other long-lived greenhouse gases by the end of the century. Implementing such
reductions poses substantial technological, economic, social, and institutional
challenges, which increase with delays in additional mitigation and if key
technologies are not available. Limiting warming to lower or higher levels involves
similar challenges, but on different timescales.

Adaptation and Mitigation

Many adaptation and mitigation options can help address climate change, but no single
option is sufficient by itself. Effective implementation depends on policies and cooperation
at all scales, and can be enhanced through integrated responses that link adaptation and
mitigation with other societal objectives.

Adaptation and mitigation responses are underpinned by common enabling factors.

These include effective institutions and governance, innovation and investments in
environmentally sound technologies and infrastructure, sustainable livelihoods, and
behavioral and lifestyle choices.

Adaptation options exist in all sectors, but their context for implementation and
potential to reduce climate-related risks differs across sectors and regions. Some
adaptation responses involve significant co-benefits, synergies and trade-offs.

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Increasing climate change will increase challenges for many adaptation options.

Mitigation options are available in every major sector. Mitigation can be more cost-
effective if using an integrated approach that combines measures to reduce energy
use and the greenhouse gas intensity of end-use sectors, decarbonize energy supply,
reduce net emissions and enhance carbon sinks in land-based sectors.

Effective adaptation and mitigation responses will depend on policies and measures
across multiple scales: international, regional, national and sub-national. Policies
across all scales supporting technology development, diffusion and transfer, as well as
finance for responses to climate change, can complement and enhance the
effectiveness of policies that directly promote adaptation and mitigation.

Climate change is a threat to sustainable development. Nonetheless, there are many

opportunities to link mitigation, adaptation and the pursuit of other societal
objectives through integrated responses (high confidence). Successful implementation
relies on relevant tools,suitable governance structures and enhanced capacity to
respond (medium confidence).

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