Population Expansion in Pakistan: A historical overview of census data

Muhammad Rizwan Manzoor

1. Introduction:

In 1850, the global population stood at approximately one billion individuals. However, by 1950,
a mere century later, it had already exceeded two billion people.1 A mere half-century ago from
the present day saw this number increase to around 6.8 billion inhabitants worldwide, with
projections from the U.S Census Bureau in 2010 anticipating that it would surpass nine billion by
the year 2050.2 Pakistan's demographic statistics are both remarkable and concerning. Regarding
population growth rankings across countries in 1950, Pakistan placed fourteenth globally; within
just seventy-one years, it swiftly ascended to become the fifth most populous country on Earth.
The population of Pakistan currently accounts for approximately 2.9 per cent of the world's
populace.3 These alarming rates translate into an annual addition of roughly four million to five
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million children to the global average. Fundamentally, this represents nothing short of an
existential threat. At this critical juncture, it is regrettably apparent that no all-encompassing plan
or program exists in place to curb population growth. Given the limited availability of resources,
it is anticipated that Pakistan's population will experience an alarming increase from 2.4 to 2.8. 4
In light of this trend, the government must take decisive actions to address this issue by
employing all available means.

This article will delve into the ramifications of rapid population growth, provide a historical
context regarding census-taking efforts in Pakistan, and ultimately offer practical strategies to
effectively curb the country's population growth.

2. Leading consequences of population explosion:

The substantial expansion of the population in Pakistan has resulted in several detrimental
consequences. One significant issue of unchecked population growth is the surge in intercity
migration within Pakistan. Due to unequal development patterns across urban areas, individuals
are compelled to migrate towards cities that provide a more favourable standard of living.

The exponential increase in population has significant implications for societal division and the
proliferation of slums. These informal settlements act as hubs for poverty and criminal activity.
Furthermore, the rapid expansion of the population poses substantial risks to internal security.
With a current population of 230 million, Pakistan ranks fifth among the most densely populated
nations globally and is projected to reach approximately 300 million by 2030. Consequently,
acknowledging human security as a prerequisite for maintaining internal stability, Pakistan's
National Security Policy released at the beginning of 2022 accurately identified this critical
correlation.5

1
Mohsin Mumtaz, "Population explosion: A looming threat," Pakistan Observer, May 22, 2023
2
Ibid
3
Ali Hassan Bangwar, "Pakistan’s population problem," The Express Tribune, October 23, 2022
4
Ibid
5
Ibid
Additionally, the increasing population is placing additional strains on our education system.
Pakistan currently holds the unfortunate distinction of having the second-highest number of out-
of-school children in the world, with nearly 22.8 million children between the ages of 5 and 6 not
receiving an education, as reported by UNESCO.6 In addition to this alarming statistic, Pakistan's
healthcare sector is also facing mounting pressure due to a significant surge in population
growth. It is disheartening that we continue to grapple with polio while many other countries
have successfully eradicated this virus from their lands.

The inadequate health conditions have an additional negative impact on the country's financial
resources. Moreover, Pakistan is ranked 154th out of 189 countries in the Human Development
Index Report for 2020.7 The abundant pool of unemployed individuals with limited skills further
hampers sustained economic growth. In addition, the rapid increase in population contributes to
a substantial youth bulge. To enhance the Human Development Index and promote sustainable
development, it is imperative to prioritize population control and invest in education, healthcare
services, and industrial development.

The rapid growth of our population poses a significant threat to the agricultural sector. As the
demand for housing and industry increases, the expanding population encroaches on agricultural
land and requires higher food production. According to a report from the Pakistan Bureau of
Statistics, 16% of the country's population experiences moderate or severe food insecurity,

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placing Pakistan at 92nd out of 116 nations in the global hunger index rankings. 8 In this context,
Malthusianism theory is applicable; it asserts that while the population grows exponentially, the
growth rate of food supply and other resources remains linear, ultimately leading to a decline in
living standards and potential die-off due to inadequate resources. Moreover, the adverse
consequences of deforestation in Pakistan have been exacerbated by the issue of overpopulation.
This is primarily due to the rapid pace of industrialization and urban expansion within the
country. The World Wildlife Fund reports that a mere 5.7 per cent of Pakistan's land is covered
by forests, making it one of Asia's countries with the lowest forest coverage rates after
Afghanistan. Consequently, this high rate of deforestation contributes significantly to greenhouse
gas emissions released into our atmosphere.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change acknowledges that population plays a role in
the emission of greenhouse gases.9 Within Pakistan, several cities have gained notoriety for their
high pollution levels, and this can be attributed to the concentrated population residing within
these urban areas. The World Health Organization's Global Health Observatory estimates that
environmental factors contribute to approximately 200 fatalities per 100,000 inhabitants in
Pakistan.10 As humanity expands its reach through urbanization and industrialization, natural
habitats are shrinking rapidly, leaving wildlife species with no choice but to assemble into ever-
smaller spaces, putting their survival at risk. Many biologists draw a connection between the
extinction of wildlife and potential consequences for human societies on Earth. The exponential
increase in our nation's population poses a range of multifaceted challenges. To mitigate these
pressures, Pakistan must adopt and implement comprehensive reforms. Educating our citizens
on the benefits of smaller family sizes as part of this broader endeavour is imperative.

6
"Slow progress of Family Planning in Pakistan and possible Learnings from the successful experiences of Iran,
Turkey and Bangladesh," The United Nations Population Fund, Accessed date: August 06, 2023, URL:
https://pakistan.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/low_uptake_of_fp_pk_-_v9.pdf
7
"Human Development Report 2020," United Nations Development Programme, Accessed on August 6, 2023,
URL: https://hdr.undp.org/system/files/documents/hdr2020pdf.pdf
8
"The People Bomb," Dawn, May 14, 2022, URL: https://www.dawn.com/news/1699549
9
"Climate change: a threat to human wellbeing and health of the planet. Taking action now can secure our future,"
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, accessed on August 06, 2023, URL:
https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/02/28/pr-wgii-ar6/
10
Ibid
 3. History of Population Census in Pakistan:

Pakistan has a rich historical background when it comes to conducting censuses. Following
independence from British rule, Pakistan's first official population count was conducted in 1951.
Subsequently, the second Census was carried out in 1961, and the third had to be postponed
until 1972 due to political unrest and conflict with India during that period. In March of 1981,
the fourth Census took place; however, due to specific circumstances, the fifth scheduled Census
for 1990 occurred in March 1998.11

The census bureau was founded in 1950 under the Ministry of Home Affairs and conducted the
first three censuses while operating under that ministry. Following the 1972 Census, however, it
was established as a permanent department within the Ministry of Interior. This move aimed to
preserve expertise and continuity, which had previously been lost after each Census - as seen
with the cases in 1951 and 1961. In addition to this reorganization, a registration organization
was formed in 1973, also under the Ministry of Interior's oversight, headed by the Census
Commissioner. Eventually, merging these two departments in 1976 created what is now known
as the "Census & Registration Organization". In March 1978, the "Census & Registration
Organization" was divided into two distinct departments. As a result of the General Statistics Act
of 2011, the Population Census Organization became part of the Statistics Division and has since
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remained in this position. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics is charged with carrying out census
activities.12

The Census is recognized as a subject of the federal government in Pakistan, according to its
placement at Sl. NO. 38 on the Federal Legislation list, Part-1, Fourth Schedule of the
Constitution of Pakistan. To determine the allocation of seats in the National Assembly, each
province/FATA and Federal Territory are assigned seats based on their respective population
figures from the most recent officially published census data under Article-51 of the
Constitution. Additionally, funds distribution between the Federation and Provinces are
governed by the National Finance Commission through Article-160, which also relies on census
statistics. The allocation for recruitment to positions within the Federal sector is also determined
based on population ratios provided by the Census. This is stated in Establishment Division's
Office Memorandum No. 8/9/72, TRV, dated August 31st, 1973. The first five censuses were
conducted with the legal framework of the Census Ordinance from 1959, which was revised
periodically. On the other hand, conducting the sixth Population and Housing Census will be
governed by the General Statistics Act of 2011.13

4. Population Census 2023:

The year 2023 marks a significant milestone in the South Asian region with the implementation
of the 7th Population & Housing Census. Noteworthy is that this census initiative distinguishes
itself by being one of the most extensive digitization projects ever undertaken, accomplished
within a concise timeframe of only 18 months. Unprecedentedly, tablets were employed to
enumerate and record population figures for the first time digitally; citizens were also allowed to
engage in self-enumeration. Moreover, this landmark census effort facilitated economic analysis
by establishing an economic framework capable of identifying clusters across various regions
within the nation.

11
"History and Introduction of Population Census," Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Accessed on August 7, 2023,
URL: https://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/population-census
12
Ibid
Additionally, all structures were geographically tagged to facilitate improved tracking
mechanisms. Stakeholders involved had privileged access to online monitoring dashboards
throughout the entire process from start to finish.

According to the most recent Census data, Pakistan's population has reached an impressive
figure of 241.49 million, making it the fifth most populous country in the world after Indonesia,
the United States, China, and India. The Census was conducted starting from March 1st, 2023,
with great efforts made to represent the nation's demographics accurately. This comprehensive
process revealed an annual growth rate of 2.55% since the previous Census in 2017, a substantial
increase of more than 16%. In just under six years between these two censuses alone, there has
been a significant rise in population by approximately 35 million individuals.14 The infograph
below shows the growth trends in the census at each region:

Growth Trends in Three Population Census

1998 2017 2023 5.19
4.91

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3.37 3.2
2.69 2.72 2.82 2.64 2.8 2.81
2.4 2.55 2.38 2.53 2.41 2.57 2.47
2.13

Pakistan Khyber Punjab Sindh Balochistan Islamabad

Pakhtunkhwa

Data source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

Whereas the table below shows the population count and growth across administrative units in
three recent censuses:

Population (million) Annual Growth Rate (%age)

Admin Unit 1998 2017 2023 1998 2017 2023

2.69 2.40 2.55

Pakistan 132.35 207.68 241.49

Khyber 2.72 2.82 2.38

20.92 35.5 40.85
Pakhtunkhwa
Punjab 73.62 109.98 127.68 2.64 2.13 2.53
Sindh 30.44 47.85 55.69 2.80 2.41 2.57
Balochistan 6.57 12.34 14.89 2.47 3.37 3.20
Islamabad 0.81 2.01 2.36 5.19 4.91 2.81
Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

14
Abdul Wali, "Digital census: Pakistan’s population surges to 241.49 million," The Express Tribune, August 05, 2023
 According to the infograph above, most of the Pakistan's population, precisely 61 per cent or
147.6 million people, reside in rural areas. In contrast, the urban population is 93.7 million or
approximately 38.82 per cent of the total population. The province with the largest rural
population is Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where nearly 85 per cent of its residents live in rural regions.
Balochistan has a significant proportion of its inhabitants living in rural areas, accounting for
around 69 per cent of the province's population. On the other hand, Punjab has a slightly lower
percentage, with approximately 59 per cent residing in rural parts. Regarding urbanization, Sindh
tops all provinces by having the highest proportion – about half (53%) –of its populace living in
cities and towns.15

5. Conclusion:

To confront the growing consequences of overpopulation, it is imperative to implement practical

measures for population control and management at all levels. The initial step towards achieving
a well-balanced and productive human workforce involves recognizing overpopulation as an
existential threat. To address this issue effectively, various strategies must be pursued. Firstly,
governments must demonstrate their commitment by implementing pragmatic population
planning policies. Additionally, increasing the prevalence of contraceptives can contribute
significantly to curbing population growth rates. It is also crucial to involve religious scholars
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who can provide realistic interpretations of religion that promote responsible family planning
practices.

Furthermore, prioritizing education by enhancing literacy rates and ensuring women have access
to education will play a fundamental role in reducing birth rates. Challenging harmful traditions
such as child marriages through legal prohibitions and actively debunking misconceptions
regarding reproduction are further necessary steps. Moreover, enforcing limited-child policies
while incentivizing compliance will regulate family sizes responsibly. Creating public spaces and
recreational activities helps improve the quality of life and mitigate potential strain on resources
due to overcrowding. Promoting awareness campaigns through mass media platforms will
educate the general public about the repercussions of high population density while emphasizing
sustainable solutions. The leadership must acknowledge that achieving sustainable development
and equalitarianism relies on effective population management characterized by inclusivity and
limitations.

In the light of the discussion the following set of points may be considered as way forward for future action plan to
address this important issue:

i. There is a crucial requirement for political dedication and expression within

legislative processes that must be raised with unwavering determination and
consistency. It is essential to ensure sustained involvement from lawmakers to
advocate for issues effectively and promote executive branch accountability.

ii. Ensuring a sustainable population should be viewed as a matter of national

importance, with contributions from provincial and federal governments. A
consensus must be reached on this issue and adequate funds for its implementation.
The long-term nature of addressing population concerns requires patience in waiting
for results, given its significant impact across various socio-economic development
sectors. Sensitizing and empowering political leaders and bureaucrats is imperative to
effectively address this challenge while maintaining strong accountability measures to
monitor progress.

15
Sana Jamal, "Pakistan’s population soars to 241 million," Gulf News, August 06, 2023
 iii. It is essential for all provincial Health Outlets to embrace and prioritize Family
Planning as an integral service thoroughly. This commitment should be accompanied
by efforts to strengthen the workforce of Lady Health Workers and other
Community Health Worker programs, supplemented with additional interventions
like male engagement, premarital counselling, promoting female education, and
providing life skills-based education for young individuals about the advantages of
family planning. To achieve a more cost-effective and comprehensive family planning
program, immediate high-level discussions are necessary. These conversations should
lead to decisions that ensure family planning services are included as part of the
broader maternal and overall family health services the Department of Health
provides. By holistically integrating these services into existing healthcare
frameworks, we can enhance access to and quality of care related to family planning.

iv. To ensure effective governance, it is crucial to establish an annual policy review

system at both the national and provincial leadership levels. This will facilitate the
evaluation of the policies put forth by these governing bodies and enable necessary
adjustments for their successful implementation. Furthermore, it is imperative that
we carefully examine the recommendations provided by CCI and take prompt action
towards their realization. Reviewing and implementing these suggestions can enhance
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our policymaking processes and achieve desired outcomes more efficiently.

v. There is a pressing need for increased focus and dedicated efforts in promoting and
investing in birth spacing methods such as intrauterine contraceptive devices and
implants. This crucial area has been overlooked for far too long, warranting
immediate attention from policymakers, healthcare providers, and relevant
stakeholders. It is high time that concerted actions are taken to raise awareness about
the benefits of these effective contraception options while ensuring their widespread
availability to those who could benefit from them. By prioritizing investment and
promotion in this field, we can empower individuals with the knowledge and tools
necessary for responsible family planning decisions while addressing critical
reproductive health issues.

vi. There is a pressing need for an increased focus on and investment in promoting birth
spacing techniques such as Intrauterine Contraceptive Devices and implants. This
issue has been neglected for some time but now demands greater attention.

vii. In reproductive health, counselling and services are often interconnected. However,
the private sector primarily emphasizes sales and service provision rather than
offering comprehensive care. The media need to play an active role in promoting
messages related to family planning to raise awareness and encourage responsible
decision-making regarding reproductive choices.

viii. Integrating research and evaluation has become a crucial aspect of the policy revision
process. It is imperative to have a well-established monitoring and evaluation system
supported by reliable data on service coverage and frequent representative surveys
such as the Performance Monitoring for Action and operations research. These
measures are necessary to ensure effective decision-making based on comprehensive
information.