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Mineral Engineering Conference IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 427 (2018) 012002 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/427/1/012002
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Trends in global copper mining – a review

S Pietrzyk1 and B Tora2

1
Department of Non Ferrous Metals, AGH University of Science and Technology,
Krakow, Poland

2
Department of Mining and Geoengineering, AGH University of Science and
Technology, Krakow, Poland

[email protected]

Abstract Copper and its alloys are used for diverse applications that are required for us to
attain a specific standard of life. Continuous copper production and use are needed for the
development of the society. Future copper demand will be covered mainly by the discovery of
new deposits and mining. However, technological improvements and efficient designs intended
to limit copper consumption will be equally important, similarly to recycling, as part of the
activities associated with circular economy. Current data indicate that the global extraction of
copper reached 20.2 million tons in 2016, while the output from metallurgical plants attained
the level of 19.0 million tons in the same year. However, the refined copper production output
increased to 23.3 million tons in 2016, including 3.9 million tons obtained from recycling. One
can ask the question: Can we run short of copper, considering the present 6% increase and
projected further increase of copper extraction and use? This paper is trying to find an answer
to this question, based on such factors as copper resources and their long-term availability,
global distribution of identified and projected copper resources, global extraction rates, and the
trends in copper extraction capabilities.

1. Global copper resources

Usually, the projection of the availability of a given metal in the future is based on the evaluation of
the existing resources in comparison to mining capabilities.
International classifications (United Nations Framework Classification (UNFC)) distinguish [1,2]
the extractable and non-extractable resources, comprising non-industrial and subeconomic ones, as
well as economic ones that have not been included in industrial or non-industrial resources (figure 1).
The class of “Reserves” includes the resources that can be extracted in an economically feasible
manner, omitting losses or waste, and taking into account depletion. the term “Resources” includes
geological assets, excluding the “Reserves”. According to the United States Geological Survey
(USGS), the global copper reserves are presently estimated at ca. 720 Mt, while the remaining
resources are estimated at ca. 5.600 Mt (figure 4). The latter figure contains the identified and
undiscovered quantities that are estimated at ca. 2.100 Mt and 3.500 Mt, respectively [3].

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Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd 1
Mineral Engineering Conference IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 427 (2018) 012002 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/427/1/012002
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Figure 1. Classification of resources in international systems [1, 2].

The estimation of the undiscovered copper resources, based on the status of geological knowledge,
was provided by USGS in 2013. Undiscovered copper resources were estimated, assuming two basic
forms of occurrence, being so typical that they constitute 80% of identified resources. Those are
porphyry deposits (60%) and sedimentary ore deposits (20%) [4]. The distribution of such resources is
presented in figure 2 [4].

Figure 2. Distribution of main global copper resources (without those from sea bottom) [4].

The estimated average amounts of undiscovered porphyry and sedimentary resources amount to
3.100 and 400 Mt, respectively, giving 3.500 Mt of copper on the global scale (not qualified as

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Mineral Engineering Conference IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 427 (2018) 012002 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/427/1/012002
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extractable deposits or resources). In total, the copper resources (both undiscovered and identified) are
estimated at 5.600 Mt (figures 3, 4, and 5) [3, 5].

Figure 3. Global resources and mining output [3].

Figure 4. Distribution of identified copper resources [3].

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Mineral Engineering Conference IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 427 (2018) 012002 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/427/1/012002
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Figure 5. Distribution of undiscovered copper resources [3].

The latter value excludes the copper resources occurring at sea bottom. The geological recognition
of such resources will increase the figures in both groups: reserves and resources. We should also take
into account the average Cu content in the earth’s crust down to the depth of 3.3 km (estimated as a
limit of future mining operations), and that amounts to ca. 85 ppm. This parameter additionally
increases the resource content to the astronomical figure of 300.000 Mt [6].

2. Global copper mining

Pure copper, in the form of natural copper, is rarely found and it constitutes about 1% of all copper
compounds. The remaining copper resources occur in the form of sulphide ores in about 90% and
oxide ores in about 9%. Copper is recovered from the metallic minerals occurring in more than 160
compounds. The main copper minerals are the following: chalcosine, bornite, chalcopyrite, digenite,
covellite, cuprite, malachite, djurleite, anilite, and idaite. The basic production of original copper starts
with the extraction of natural copper ores in copper mines. There are three basic methods of copper ore
extraction: open-pit, underground, and leaching mining. Open-pit mining is a dominating form on a
global scale.
Figure 6 presents the global trends in copper mining in 1900-2016. As we can notice, the output
reached 20.2 Mt in 2016 and showed more than a 3% increase. We also witnessed the appearance of a
new copper production technology in the 1970’s, consisting in copper extraction and leaching in
heaps, with the delivery of the mineral in the form of electrolyte (the so-called solvent extraction and
electrowinning, or the SX-EW method).

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IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 427 (2018) 012002 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/427/1/012002
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Figure 6. Global copper mining [3].

Figure 7 presents the changes of continental shares in copper ore mining.

Figure 7. Continental shares in copper mining [3].

We can observe a fast increase of copper production in South America, mainly in Chile and Peru,
with a 41% of share in global copper production. A strong increase from 6 to 18% also occurred in
Asia, mainly in China. A drop was noted in North America, from 36 to 15%. Chile is the largest
copper ore producer, representing the level of 5.5 Mt in 2016 (figure 8). The Escondida Chile is the
largest copper mine, with the output of 1.270 Mt (applying the concentration and SX-EW methods).

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IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 427 (2018) 012002 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/427/1/012002
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Figure 8. The largest global copper mining countries [3].

3. Global metallurgical copper production and copper applications

The original copper production consists in obtaining the metal from natural ores. We can distinguish
two production methods: pyro- and hydrometallurgical processes. The former consists in high-
temperature melting of copper concentrates, containing 20-40% of Cu, obtained by ore enrichment.
Copper is melted into the form of cake, or an alloy of sulphides, mainly Cu2S and FeS, containing 50-
75% of Cu. The next stage involves converting processes, changing melted cake into the so-called
blister copper (with 98.5-99.5% of Cu). Subsequent stages include fire refining and casting in the form
of ingots or anodes designed for further electrorefining copper processes. Copper cathodes are the
final product, with high 99.99% purity.
There is an alternative method of copper production called the SX-EW method. It is applied to poor
oxide ores, with low copper content, as well as some sulphide ores. The method includes leaching
(Solvent Extraction, SX) and electrowinning (EW).
Refined copper is the output product of both methods, with a comparable purity class. It is
estimated that the SX-EW method was used to produce 16% of the total global refined copper output
in 2016, and the remaining proportion originated from the pyro-metallurgical processes.
However, there is still another source of raw material available for the production of copper: copper
scrap. That resource is subject to recycling. Scrap is divided into new (post-production scrap),
occurring as a result of ore processing, and old scrap (post-consumer scrap) collected from scrapped
products. Scrap constitutes valuable and increasingly significant raw-material in the recycled copper
production, in the times of circulation economy implementation. It was estimated that recycled copper
constituted about 17% of the global refined copper output in 2016 (figure 9).

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Mineral Engineering Conference IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 427 (2018) 012002 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/427/1/012002
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Figure 9. Global output of refined copper, 1960-2016 [3].

The production of blister copper reached the level of about 19 Mt in 2016. China was the largest
producing country of blister copper and anodes in 2016 (7.2 Mt). The total refined copper output
amounted to 23.3 Mt in that year, including 3.9 Mt obtained from recycling (recycled refined copper).
Copper consumption is continually increasing, together with the development of global economy,
and it is expected that the trend will continue because more and more people and societies will aspire
to a higher standard of life, with the access to electricity, sewage systems, and modern appliances.
Wide-ranging copper applications rely mainly on the metal’s properties, e.g. high electrical and
thermal conductivity, high workability and ductility, resistance to corrosion, and antibacterial effect.
The latter feature is becoming more and more significant.
Nearly 90% of the global copper output is used in electrical devices and communication systems.
Copper represents the highest electrical conductivity after silver, and that causes that it is widely used
(40%) in electricity generation and electricity distribution systems by both industrial and individual
consumers, in an efficient and safe manner. 12.5% of copper is used for the construction of electric
and electronic equipment (electric circuits, cables, contacts etc.) [10,11]. Another 12.5% is used in the
transportation industry (e.g. in the form of copper cable bundles with the highest purity, applied in
trains, airplanes, trucks etc., conducting current from batteries to various control devices, lighting, on-
board computers, or satellite navigation systems).
Another 20% of the whole copper output is used in the building industry (sewage systems inside
the buildings, roof decking, or facade panels). Copper allows to produce light and durable structures
that do not require maintenance, since the material is natural, nicely looking, and recyclable. The
remaining 10% of copper output is designed for coins, sculptures, jewellery, musical instruments,
kitchen utensils, and other consumer products [11].
Besides, a different application is coming back to copper consumption, with anti-microbiological
touch surfaces designed for hospitals or public facilities.

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IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 427 (2018) 012002 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/427/1/012002
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Figure 10. Copper applications [7].

4. Projections of the development of copper mine capabilities

It is estimated that copper extraction will reach 25.9 Mt in 2020 of which 19% will be obtained by the
SX-EW method. That will be equivalent to a 10% increase in comparison to 2016 when the global
extraction capability reached 23.5 Mt.
It is envisaged that the mining capabilities will be increasing by 2.9% a year, with the
implementation of new capabilities in the existing mines (figure 11).

Figure 11. Trends in copper extraction [3].

What is a good indication of copper mining trends is the relationship between mining output and
mining capabilities, called the proportion of using production capabilities. The global indicators of
using copper mine production capabilities amounted to about 86% in 2016, and that shows some
reserves, allowing for extraction increase.
Another good indicator of the status of copper resources, in comparison to copper extraction
capabilities, is the comparison of the figures relating to resources and mining output (figure 12) [8].

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Mineral Engineering Conference IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 427 (2018) 012002 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/427/1/012002
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Figure 12. Historical copper reserves and output in Mt [8].

5. Conclusions
Based on the data presented above, we can conclude that there are very promising trends in the
development of copper mining. The current copper resources and ore mines’ capabilities, as well as
the technologies of the production of primary and refined copper provide good prospects for further
regular increase of copper production in the future.
However, certain limitations exist as well. Those can affect the growing trends. One of the reasons
of such an option is the fact that the high-quality copper ores become rare and difficult to discover.
The success of the resource exploration requires long-term and continued capital investments at the
initial stages of resource evaluation which is charged with a high risk of losses. The presently operated
copper mines struggle with a number of problems, starting with the exhaustion of quality ores and the
necessity to extract deeper and deeper deposits and ending with the growing expectations of the
governments, regulatory authorities, and the local communities.
The Wood Mackenzie consulting agency expects that a possible drop in ore mining can reach even
17% [9]. The analysts estimate that the mining output may be dropping by 230 kt a year after 2019.
The global increase of demand for copper is estimated at 2.1% a year, or 521 kt of new supply.
Consequently, the deficit can increase in case of ore mining decrease.
New high-class copper ore deposits are required to meet the growing global demand for copper.
The increase of copper ore extraction can be enforced in the coming decades by such new industries as
electric car production, power generation from renewable resources, or infrastructure development in
growing and emerging economies.
The electric car production is increasing fast. Hybrid cars consume 40 kg of copper each: twice as
much in comparison to conventionally or natural gas-powered cars. Electric cars use 90 or more
kilograms of copper, which is three or four times more than in the case of traditional cars. It is
expected that the global fleet of electric cars will increase from the present one million vehicles to
about 140 million by 2035 [11].
The increase of primary copper production can be greatly supported by renewable energy.
Renewable technologies, based on wind or solar energy displayed a nearly 50 time increase in the
recent decade. The share of solar energy in global energy generation increased more than twice in only
three years, although it still constitutes a small part of the total energy balance. From now up to 2040,
8 billion dollars will be spent on the global renewable resources, or about two thirds of all the
expenditures for energy. The renewable energy systems require 4 to 12 times more copper than the

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IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 427 (2018) 012002 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/427/1/012002
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traditional energy generation plants using fossil fuels. The growing demand for solar energy will
require from 7 to 10 million tons of copper until 2030 [11].
Another hope of copper mining is associated with the growing economies that create new demand
for copper. It is expected that the technological development and the positive demographic growth
only in Asia will create an additional demand for more than 30 million tons of copper by 2030.

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