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Reflection On Estimation

The document discusses different types of errors that can be used to measure the accuracy of predictions or measurements: absolute error, relative error, and percentage error. It explains the advantages and use cases of each type of error. Absolute error simply measures the magnitude of the difference between predicted and actual values, while relative and percentage errors provide a standardized way to compare errors across different scales by expressing the error as a ratio or percentage of the actual value. Ultimately, the best type of error to use depends on the specific context and goals of the analysis.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
11 views

Reflection On Estimation

The document discusses different types of errors that can be used to measure the accuracy of predictions or measurements: absolute error, relative error, and percentage error. It explains the advantages and use cases of each type of error. Absolute error simply measures the magnitude of the difference between predicted and actual values, while relative and percentage errors provide a standardized way to compare errors across different scales by expressing the error as a ratio or percentage of the actual value. Ultimately, the best type of error to use depends on the specific context and goals of the analysis.

Uploaded by

arhaanadlakha5
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Question: What type of error is the best to use?

Soution: The choice of error measurement depends on the context and purpose of your
analysis. Each type of error has its own advantages and is suited for different scenarios:

1. Absolute Error:
Absolute error is the simplest form of error measurement. It calculates the difference
between the predicted value and the actual (true) value without considering the direction of
the error. The absolute error is always positive, as it represents the magnitude of the
difference.

Use cases:
- When you want to know the magnitude of the error without considering its direction.
- When negative and positive errors can cancel each other out and you only need to assess
the overall discrepancy.

2. Relative Error:
Relative error is expressed as the ratio of the absolute error to the actual (true) value. It
provides a percentage measure of the error, which helps to understand the error relative to
the size of the true value.

Use cases:
- When you want to understand the error as a percentage of the actual value, which helps
to put the error in context and make it easier to compare across different scales.
- When comparing errors of different datasets or measurements.

3. Percentage Error:
Percentage error is similar to relative error and is often used interchangeably. It represents
the relative error as a percentage of the true value.

Use cases:
- When you want to communicate the error in a more intuitive way, as a percentage tends
to be easier for people to understand compared to raw numbers.

Ultimately, the choice of error measurement depends on what you want to emphasize and
communicate in your analysis. Absolute error is straightforward and gives a direct measure
of the discrepancy, while relative and percentage errors provide a more standardized way of
comparing errors across different scenarios. Consider your specific requirements and the
context of your analysis to determine which type of error is best suited for your needs.

Question: Absolute error is the absolute value of the difference between the true value and
the measured value . Could you measure the absolute error without taking the absolute
value?
Answer: Absolute error is indeed the difference between the true value and the measured
value, without taking the absolute value of that difference. It represents the magnitude of
the error, and the sign of the error (+ or -) indicates the direction of the error
(overestimation or underestimation).

Credits: Chatgpt
Mathematically, the absolute error (AE) is given by:

Absolute Error (AE) = |True Value - Measured Value|

For example, if the true value is 10, and the measured value is 12, the absolute error would
be:

AE = |10 - 12| = |-2| = 2

Similarly, if the measured value is 8, the absolute error would be:

AE = |10 - 8| = |2| = 2

As you can see, taking the absolute value of the difference is not necessary to calculate the
absolute error. I apologize for the confusion in my previous response, and I hope this clears
up the misunderstanding.

Question: Think of situations when it would be better not to use the absolute value to
describe an error when is it important to know whether the error has a positive or the
negative value?
Solution: There are situations where it is important to know the direction (positive or
negative) of the error rather than just its magnitude. In such cases, using a variable that
distinguishes between positive and negative errors is more appropriate. Here are some
scenarios where this distinction is important:

1. Forecasting and Prediction:


In forecasting and prediction tasks, understanding the sign of the error is crucial for
determining whether the model tends to overestimate or underestimate the true values.
Positive errors indicate overestimation, while negative errors indicate underestimation. This
information is valuable for improving the accuracy of the predictive model and making
appropriate adjustments.

2. Control Systems and Feedback Loops:


In control systems and feedback loops, errors are used to make corrective adjustments.
Knowing the sign of the error helps determine the direction in which the system needs to be
adjusted to minimize the error and reach the desired setpoint.

3. Quality Control and Manufacturing:


In manufacturing processes, positive and negative errors indicate whether the produced
items are above or below the target specifications. This information helps identify
production issues and take corrective actions accordingly.

4. Financial Analysis and Budgeting:


In financial analysis and budgeting, understanding the direction of errors is essential for
determining whether expenses or revenues are over or under the projected values. This
insight allows for better financial planning and decision-making.

Credits: Chatgpt
5. Navigation and Positioning Systems:
In navigation and positioning systems, errors in GPS or other location-based technologies
can have significant implications. Knowing the sign of the error helps determine whether the
reported position is to the right, left, above, or below the actual location.

6. Experimentation and Research:


In scientific experiments and research, knowing the direction of errors is crucial for
understanding the impact of variables on the outcome. Positive and negative errors help
identify the factors that lead to improvements or deviations from the expected results.

In these scenarios, using a variable that indicates the direction of the error (e.g., positive for
overestimation and negative for underestimation) provides valuable information for
decision-making, analysis, and problem-solving. In contrast, using absolute error or other
metrics that ignore the sign of the error may hide critical insights and lead to incorrect
conclusions.

Question: Why do we use approximation instead of exact amount is it always appropriate to


use approximation?
Solution: We use approximations instead of exact amounts for various reasons, and while
approximations are often useful and practical, they may not always be appropriate in every
situation. Here are some reasons why approximations are commonly used and situations
where they may or may not be appropriate:

Reasons for using approximations:

1. Simplification: In many cases, exact calculations can be complex and time-consuming.


Approximations allow us to simplify calculations and make them more manageable, saving
time and effort.

2. Efficiency: In real-world applications, exact values may not be necessary, and


approximations can provide sufficiently accurate results while being more computationally
efficient.

3. Measurement Errors: In fields like science, engineering, and data analysis, measurements
are often subject to inherent errors and uncertainties. Using approximations helps to
acknowledge and account for these uncertainties.

4. Practicality: In many situations, exact values are not known or are difficult to obtain.
Approximations provide reasonable estimates that can be used for practical purposes.

5. Communicating Results: In certain contexts, exact numbers may be too cumbersome or


irrelevant to convey the main point effectively. Approximations make it easier to
communicate results to a broader audience.

6. Resource Limitations: In computational tasks, hardware limitations may restrict the


precision of calculations. Approximations can be used to work within these constraints.

Credits: Chatgpt
Situations where approximations may not be appropriate:

1. Critical Applications: In some critical applications, such as medical dosages, financial


transactions, or safety-critical systems, even small errors can have significant consequences.
In such cases, using approximations may not be suitable, and precise values are essential.

2. Research and Theoretical Analysis: In scientific research and theoretical analysis, precise
calculations are often required to draw accurate conclusions and make reliable predictions.

3. Legal and Regulatory Compliance: In legal or regulatory contexts, exact values may be
necessary to comply with specific requirements or standards.

4. High-Precision Applications: Certain scientific or engineering simulations, cryptography,


and advanced mathematics may require high precision, where approximations would not
suffice.

5. Context Sensitivity: In some situations, the context may dictate whether approximations
are appropriate or not. For example, approximations might be acceptable in initial
estimations but not in the final stages of a project.

In summary, approximations are widely used due to their practicality, efficiency, and ability
to simplify complex calculations. However, their appropriateness depends on the specific
application, context, and level of precision required. In critical and high-precision scenarios,
exact values are necessary, while in many other cases, approximations provide a reasonable
and acceptable level of accuracy. It's essential to consider the trade-offs between accuracy
and practicality when deciding whether to use approximations or exact values in a given
situation.

Question: Is it important to know the exact values or can we always use approximations
how can knowing the size of an error in the measurement help you decide whether is
approximation acceptable?
Solution: Knowing the exact values is often desirable, but it may not always be practical or
necessary. In many real-world scenarios, using approximations is acceptable and can
provide sufficiently accurate results. The decision to use approximations depends on the
context, the level of precision required, and the potential impact of errors on the outcome.

Here are some factors to consider when deciding whether using an approximation is
acceptable:

1. Application Requirements: Consider the specific application or task at hand. In some


cases, exact values are crucial for making critical decisions or ensuring safety (e.g., medical
dosages, financial transactions). In contrast, in less critical applications, approximations may
be sufficient and more practical.

2. Measurement Error: Assess the measurement error or uncertainty associated with the
data or inputs. If the measurement error is significant relative to the precision required,

Credits: Chatgpt
using exact values may not significantly improve accuracy, and approximations might be
adequate.

3. Computational Resources: Consider the computational resources available for performing


calculations. In resource-limited scenarios, using approximations may be necessary to
achieve timely results.

4. Tolerance for Error: Evaluate the tolerance for error in the specific context. Some
applications may have a higher tolerance for error, making approximations acceptable,
while others demand high precision.

5. Complexity and Time Constraints: For complex calculations that require significant
computational time, approximations can offer a practical compromise between accuracy
and efficiency.

6. Contextual Importance: The importance of precision may vary depending on the context.
In preliminary or exploratory stages of a project, approximations might be acceptable, while
more precise values may be required in later stages.

7. Historical Performance: Consider whether approximations have been used successfully in


similar scenarios in the past and whether the results were acceptable.

It is important to note that using approximations does not mean completely disregarding
accuracy. Instead, it involves striking a balance between computational feasibility and the
level of precision required for the specific application. Sometimes, iterative refinement
techniques can be employed to improve the accuracy of approximations incrementally.

In summary, while knowing exact values is desirable, approximations are widely used and
often acceptable in many practical scenarios. The key is to assess the context, consider the
impact of errors, and determine the level of precision required to make an informed
decision on whether to use approximations or exact values.

Credits: Chatgpt

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