Behavioural Insights Toolkit:

A step-by-step process for building a behavioural

intervention, with brainstorming cards

Research and Evaluation Unit (RIMU)

June 2020
Behavioural insights toolkit:
A step-by-step process for building a behavioural
intervention, with brainstorming cards
June 2020

Dr Jesse Allpress
Dr Dina Dosmukhambetova

Research and Evaluation Unit (RIMU)

Auckland Council

Approved for publication by:

Alison Reid, Manager, Social and Economic Research and Evaluation (RIMU)
29 June 2020

Recommended citation
Allpress, J. A. and D. Dosmukhambetova (2020). Behavioural insights toolkit: a step-
by-step process for building a behavioural intervention, with brainstorming cards.
Auckland Council.

© 2020 Auckland Council

Auckland Council disclaims any liability whatsoever in connection with any action taken in
reliance of this document for any error, deficiency, flaw or omission contained in it.

This document is licensed for re-use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
International licence.

In summary, you are free to copy, distribute and adapt the material, as long as you attribute it
to the Auckland Council and abide by the other licence terms.
Introduction
Behavioural insights (BI) involves the study of human behaviour, often drawing on empirical
research in fields including psychology, economics and sociology. By helping to identify the
behavioural factors and biases affecting people’s choices, BI enables the design of more
effective programmes and policies.

This toolkit has been designed by the Research and Evaluation Unit (RIMU) at Auckland
Council to be useful to those wishing to improve public programmes or services, policy
development, or team decision-making. It draws on a range of existing resources produced by
the Behavioural Insights Team, the OECD and others (see ‘other resources’ on the next page).

This toolkit has two components that can be used either separately or together.

The first component is a step-by-step process for developing a behavioural intervention. It

guides the user through understanding existing behaviours, identifying a desired behaviour,
brainstorming ideas for promoting the desired behaviour, and robustly testing the best ideas.
The user should follow the steps in the order they are numbered. It is focused on key questions
to ask at each step. It is not a complete guide to how to answer these questions, however, and
the user may need to rely on other research and evaluation resources to help with each step.

The second component of the toolkit is a series of ‘brainstorming’ cards. The cards cover many
important behavioural principles to keep in mind when looking to improve programmes,
policies, or decision-making. Each card includes a description of the behavioural principle,
some examples, and suggestions for how to apply the principle. They can be used on their
own or to brainstorm ideas as in the step-by-step process above. To help with navigation, the
card set has been organised into a series for better services and a series for better decision-
making, although there is overlap in the use of the cards. The former is marked with a red dot
in the top left corner and the latter with a green dot.

How is behavioural insights relevant to government?

Behavioural insights is now used extensively across the world. Internationally, the OECD
estimates there are more than 200 institutions applying behavioural insights to public policy. 1
In New Zealand, BI is recommended as a tool for policy practitioners by the Department of the
Prime Minister and Cabinet (DPMC), and it is being used within a range of government
departments such as the Ministry of Justice, Ministry for the Environment, Inland Revenue
Department, Ministry of Social Development and Department of Conservation.

There is growing interest across the New Zealand local government sector in using BI to
improve council programmes and policies. The remit of local authorities is wide and includes
encouraging behaviour change across social, environmental, economic, and cultural domains.

1
https://www.oecd.org/gov/regulatory-policy/behavioural-insights.htm
Find out more
These sets of cards were developed by Auckland Council’s Research and Evaluation Unit
(RIMU). For more information or to see other work in this area please visit
www.knowledgeauckland.org.nz or contact us at [email protected].

Other RIMU BI work includes:

• Increasing voter turnout in Auckland local government elections: results from a
behavioural insights trial 2
• Increasing voter turnout using behavioural insights (literature review) 3
• Using behavioural insights to increase dog fine payments 4
• Nudging visitors to notice Safeswim signs 5
• Safeswim impact evaluation. Aucklanders’ awareness and behaviour one year on 6

Other resources
The following public resources are recommended:
• EAST: Four Simple Ways to Apply Behavioural Insights
(https://www.bi.team/publications/east-four-simple-ways-to-apply-behavioural-
insights/)
• MINDSPACE: Influencing behaviour through public policy
(https://www.bi.team/publications/mindspace/)
• Tools and Ethics for Applied Behavioural Insights: The BASIC Toolkit
(https://www.oecd.org/gov/regulatory-policy/tools-and-ethics-for-applied-behavioural-
insights-the-basic-toolkit-9ea76a8f-en.htm)
• Test, Learn, Adapt: Developing Public Policy with Randomised Controlled Trials
(https://www.bi.team/publications/test-learn-adapt-developing-public-policy-with-
randomised-controlled-trials/)

2
https://knowledgeauckland.org.nz/publications/increasing-voter-turnout-in-auckland-local-
government-elections-results-from-a-behavioural-insights-trial
3
https://knowledgeauckland.org.nz/publications/increasing-voter-turnout-using-behavioural-insights/
4
https://knowledgeauckland.org.nz/publications/using-behavioural-insights-to-increase-dog-fine-
payments/
5
https://knowledgeauckland.org.nz/publications/nudging-visitors-to-notice-safeswim-signs/
6
https://knowledgeauckland.org.nz/publications/safeswim-impact-evaluation-aucklanders-awareness-
and-behaviour-one-year-on/
Table of contents
Page

Guide to developing a behavioural intervention

Step-by-step process to building a behavioural intervention ………….............. 1

Brainstorming cards: behavioural insights for better services

Reduce Friction ................................................................................................. 3

Simplify Messages ............................................................................................. 5

Set the Right ‘Default’ ........................................................................................ 7

Reduce Choice Overload ................................................................................... 9

Attract Attention ................................................................................................. 11

Scarcity .............................................................................................................. 13

Commitments .................................................................................................... 15

Messenger Effect ............................................................................................... 17

Start Small to Build Momentum ......................................................................... 19

Descriptive Social Norms .................................................................................. 21

Trending Social Norms ...................................................................................... 23

Timely Prompts .................................................................................................. 25

Major Life Events ............................................................................................... 27

Make a Plan ....................................................................................................... 29

Brainstorming cards: behavioural insights for better decision-making

Confirmation Bias ............................................................................................... 31

Anchoring Bias ................................................................................................... 33

Loss Aversion .................................................................................................... 35

Groupthink ......................................................................................................... 37

IKEA Effect ......................................................................................................... 39

Focusing Illusion ................................................................................................ 41

Sunk Costs ........................................................................................................ 43

Availability Bias .................................................................................................. 45

Captainitis .......................................................................................................... 47
 Step-by-step process for building a behavioural intervention
1
OVERALL PROJECT GOAL: PROJECT NAME
Describe the project’s overall goal or challenge using a ‘how might we’ statement.
How might we _______________________________________________________
for
so that
_______________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________
________________________
2 CURRENT BEHAVIOUR 4 BEHAVIOURAL INSIGHTS PRINCIPLES 5 DEVELOP NEW IDEAS 3 DESIRED BEHAVIOUR
Define what the current behaviour is that we are seeing. Identify possible BI principles that might be Brainstorm improvements to your existing product Define what the desired behaviour is we want to see.
Get really specific by asking the following questions: contributing to the current behaviour or could be used or service that combat the barriers you have identified Get really specific by asking if we were to train a camera
• Who is performing the behaviour? to nudge users towards the desired behaviour. Use the and help nudge users towards the desired behaviour. at the desired outcome:
RIMU behavioural insights brainstorming cards or
EAST framework to brainstorm ideas. • What would it see?
• What is the current behaviour we are observing?

• What would it hear?

• What is the physical and social context in which
the behaviour is occurring?
• What thoughts and emotions would it record (it’s
a special camera that can read minds)?
• What key decisions are being made in the lead
up to the current behaviour?

• Why is the current behaviour occurring? Describe the specific outcomes that will arise as a result
of this new behaviour:

• What is the outcome of the behaviour?

• How can we reach the people performing the

behaviour?

Summary:
Summary: Using the desired behaviour and expected outcomes
Using the answers to the questions above, summarise the above, summarise the behaviour in a sentence capturing
current behaviour in the following format: the following info:

Who’s performing the behaviour Who’s performing the behaviour

+ +
What they are doing What they are now doing
+ +
When/where/how they are doing it When/where/how they are doing it
+ +
What the outcome is What the outcome is

E.g. E.g.
During fortnightly team meetings Team members who attend fortnightly team meetings
+ +
Team members regularly check their email turn their phones off
+ +
using their phones at the start of the meeting, before the opening karakia
+ +
and miss important aspects of the meeting, resulting in other members of the so that everyone’s attention is focused on the meeting and everyone feels
team feeling disrespected. (They also satisfy their need/desire to regularly listened to
check for incoming mail)

Select a small number of ideas and develop a trial to test what works. Use a randomised controlled trial (RCT) or similar where possible.
6 TEST, LEARN, ADAPT Learn what works, then adapt it to further improve.
Scale up the most successful intervention. Page 1
 Reduce
Friction
Description
Our brains are limited in the amount of information they can process at
the same time. This is often referred to as ‘mental bandwidth’. We are
also wired to follow the path of least resistance – to prefer actions that
require low effort.

If we don’t have the required mental capacity to think about a task (due
to being busy and/or stressed), or if the task is perceived as being
difficult, we are likely to delay or avoid doing it.

The amount of effort or ‘friction’ associated with doing something

therefore matters a great deal. All else being equal, people are much
more likely to complete a task when it is easy to do.

Examples
Increasing university enrolment and attendance
Students from low-income households were
more likely to apply for university (and still be
there one year later) when the university
application forms were made easier to fill out.
Just providing more information had no effect
on enrolment rates.1

Increasing tax payment

People were 18% more likely to pay their taxes when sent a letter with
a URL direct to the form, rather than the same letter with the URL to a
page containing the form.2

Page 3
How to use
• Make the desired behaviour as easy to do as possible.

• Consider how to make undesirable behaviours harder to do.

• Common ways of reducing friction include:

• Reducing the number of steps in a process
• Simplifying tasks
• Pre-selecting options
• Auto-populating forms
• Grouping similar information or tasks together to increase
ease of processing and understanding
• Reducing the number of choices offered
• Simplifying messages.

• Test your messages, forms or processes for simplicity before rolling

them out.

Related BI principles
• Choice overload
• Setting the right default
• Simplify messages

References
1 https://www.bi.team/publications/east-four-simple-ways-to-apply-behavioural-insights/
2 Ibid.

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Simplify
Messages
Description
People are more likely to read, pay attention to, and act on information
they can easily understand.

In fact, how easy something is to read – known as its processing

fluency – is so important that simple messages are rated by readers as
more persuasive and their authors more intelligent.1

Conversely, messages that are dense and difficult to process are less
likely to be read, understood and acted upon. Often such messages
are ignored entirely.

Examples
Increasing fine payment
Simplifying Auckland Council dog infringement letters increased fine
payment rates by 69%, resulting in increased fine collections of
approximately $90,000 per year.2

Reducing prescription errors

Simplifying UK hospital
prescription charts and
providing pre-populated tick
boxes reduced prescribing
errors and increased the
accuracy of doctor-provided
information.3

Page 5
How to use
• Use simple, non-technical language.

• Be specific about recommended actions.

• Make the desired behaviour easy by breaking it down into simple

steps.

• Make sure that the key message is presented early, ideally in the
first sentence or subject line.

• Highlight key information using colour, headings, call-out boxes, and

bold text.

• Highlight the consequences of not doing the desired behaviour.

• Use rhyming statements to help people remember to act – such

statements are easier to process (i.e. they have higher processing
fluency) and are rated as more believable and likeable.

Related BI principles
• Reduce friction
• Reduce choice overload
• Attract attention

References
1 Oppenheimer, D. M. (2006). Consequences of erudite vernacular utilized irrespective of
necessity: Problems with using long words needlessly. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 20,
139-156.
2 Allpress, J. A. (2019). Using behavioural insights to increase dog fine payments, Auckland

Council.
3 King D., Jabbar, A., Charani, E., et al . (2014) Redesigning the ‘choice architecture’ of hospital

prescription charts: a mixed methods study incorporating in situ simulation testing, BMJ
Open.

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Set the Right
‘Default’
Description
People often prefer to go with the flow, exerting the least amount of
effort possible.

As a result, the ‘default’ – the choice that is pre-selected – can have a

big impact on behaviour. Not only does it provide a low effort option by
implicitly suggesting the ‘preferred’ choice, it determines the outcome if
a person does not actively choose any of the other options presented
to them.

An example is Kiwisaver, where new employees are automatically

enrolled into the savings scheme, with the ability to opt-out.

Examples
Customer survey subscriptions
Customers were more likely to agree to receive future health survey
invitations when the survey question default was pre-set to ‘yes’ (89%)
or when a forced choice was required (89%), than when it was pre-set
to ‘no’ (60%).1

Organ donation
The rates of organ donation are much
higher in countries where residents are
automatically enrolled but can ‘opt-out’ if
they want (>90%) than those with
systems where individuals have to
manually ‘opt-in’ to become a donor
(<15%).2

Page 7
How to use
• Map out what happens at each step in your customer’s journey
where a choice is made.

• Consider whether a default can be set at each of these steps to

increase the likelihood of beneficial outcome(s) for users and
society.

• Ensure defaults are transparent and do not restrict the ability of

people to make a choice.

• Where a default may result in significant impacts on users, or is

likely to be controversial, it is necessary to collect evidence of public
support for the default (e.g. via a public opinion survey) before
making changes.

Related BI principles
• Reduce choice overload
• Reduce friction

References
1 Davidai, S., Gilovich, T., & Ross, L. (2012). The meaning of default options for potential organ
donors. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(38), 15201-5.
2 Johnson, E. J., Bellman, S., and Lohse, G. L. 2002. Defaults, framing and privacy: Why opting

in ≠ opting out. Marketing Letters, 13(1), 5-15.

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Reduce Choice
Overload
Description
Choice is good, but too many choices can be paralysing. Having too
many options is mentally taxing and can result in ‘choice overload’.

Research shows that too many choices can lead to people being
indecisive, unhappy, and even refraining from making the choice at all.

Choice overload is greatest when the decision task is difficult, when

the choice set is complex, when people are uncertain about their
preferences, and when people prefer to minimise their effort.1

Examples
Retirement savings
Offering a larger number of retirement fund options reduced savings
rates among low-knowledge investors. This effect was reduced when
funds were grouped to make choosing easier.2

Purchasing decisions
Shoppers were 10 times more likely to purchase
gourmet jams and chocolates when faced with 6 choices
rather than an extensive array of 24 or 30 choices. They
were also more likely to be happy with their decision
when faced with a smaller number of choices.3

Page 9
How to use
• Document how many choices you are offering people.

• Identify potential choice overload - do one or more of the following

apply?
• There are many choices
• The decision task is difficult
• The choice set is complex
• Users are likely to be uncertain about their preferences
• Users are likely to prefer to minimise their effort.

• Reduce choice overload by:

• Reducing the number of choices offered
• Group similar choices together to make navigation and
shortlisting easier
• Provide recommendations or ratings of the different choices.

Related BI principles
• Setting the right ‘default’
• Reduce friction

References
1 Chernev, A., Böckenholt, U. & Goodman, J. (2015) Choice overload: A conceptual review and
meta-analysis, Journal of Consumer Psychology, 25(2), 333-358.
2 Morrin, M., Broniarczyk, S., & Inman, J. (2012). Plan format and participation in 401(K) plans:

The moderating role of investor knowledge. Journal of Public Policy & Marketing, 31,
254-268.
3 Iyengar, S., & Lepper, M. (2000). When choice is demotivating: Can one desire too much of a

good thing? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 79, 995-1006.

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Attract
Attention
Description
Every day we are faced with many things vying for our attention.
Although our brains have evolved to process information efficiently,
there are limits to how much they can process at the same time, and
we cannot pay attention to everything around us.
Unless a message is designed to grab people’s
attention, it risks being missed or ignored
completely. Eye tracking studies, for example,
show that even when people are asked to read
something, they often only skim content and
pay attention to headings and images.1

If our main messages aren’t connected to those

attention-grabbing elements they risk not being
seen at all. Eye tracking ‘heat map’

Examples
Getting people to notice public health signs on beaches
Auckland’s Safeswim programme made use of colourful footsteps
stuck to the footpath to increase engagement with digital water quality
signs. The low-cost intervention increased in-depth engagement by
769%.2

Duolingo notification dot

Doulingo, a popular mobile language learning app, found
that adding a notification dot to their app’s home screen
icon when something new was inside the app,
encouraged users to open the app and increased the
number of daily active users by 7.6%.3 Use of such
notification dots is now common.

Page 11
How to use
• Include your main message and call to action (what you want
people to do) upfront, ideally as the first thing people see.

• Use colour, font size, images and layout to draw attention to the
most important messages.

• Personalise your content, by using people’s names and referencing

things that are important to them as much as possible.

• Tailor your approach to the environment. ‘Loud’ environments –

where lots of other things are competing for peoples attention –
might require a more attention-grabbing design than ‘quiet’
environments where people are not overloaded with competing
stimuli.

Consider the environment in which people will receive your

message and design in a way that is contextually appropriate.

Related BI principles
• Reduce friction
• Simplify messages

References
1 Behavioural Insights Team (2012). Applying behavioural insights to reduce fraud, error, and
debt. Retrieved from https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fraud-error-and-debt-
behavioural-insights-team-paper.
2 Allpress, J. A. (2019). ‘Nudging’ visitors to notice Safeswim Signs. Auckland Council.

http://knowledgeauckland.org.nz/assets/publications/Nudging-visitors-to-notice-
Safeswim-signs-summary-Dec-2018.pdf
3 https://firstround.com/review/the-tenets-of-a-b-testing-from-duolingos-master-growth-hacker/

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Scarcity

Description
People desire items more when there are fewer available. When
something is less readily available (e.g. due to limited quantity or time),
we tend to perceive it as more valuable.

Scarcity is used frequently in marketing to increase sales. Marketing

messages with limited quantity appeals are thought to be more
effective than limited time appeals, because they create a sense of
competition among consumers.1

It can also be used to increase the uptake of government and other

services, by highlighting the limited availability of those services.

Examples
Absence makes the heart grow fonder
University students who tended to be dissatisfied with the quality of
their cafeteria food rated it higher after they found out the cafeteria had
suffered a fire and would not be open for several weeks.2

Scarcity sells
People exposed to wristwatch ads stating “Exclusive
limited edition. Hurry, limited stocks” were willing to
pay 50% more for the watch than those shown an ad
stating “New edition. Many items in stock”.3

Page 13
How to use
• Highlight the limited availability of a service or product (in terms of
quantity or duration) to increase its attractiveness and take up.

• Establish deadlines for action to motivate those who might be lower

in motivation.

• The effect of scarcity is strongest when:

• Quantity is low
• People have observed the quantity decreasing (i.e. when
moving from ample availability to scarcity)
• Other people are competing for the item (i.e. demand is
high).

Related BI principles
• Social norms
• Loss aversion

References
1 Aggarwal, P., Jun, S. Y., & Huh, J. H. (2011). Scarcity messages. Journal of Advertising, 40(3),
19-30.
2 Rose, C. (2010). How to win campaigns: Communications for Change. Eartchscan, London.
3 Lee, S. Y., & Seidle, R. (2012). Narcissists as consumers: The effects of perceived scarcity on

processing of product information. Social Behavior and Personality, 40(9), 1485-1500.

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Commitments

Description
People want to follow through on their intentions, and tend to feel bad
when they don’t.

Eliciting a commitment from someone is one of the best ways to

encourage them to act in accordance with their intentions. When
people actively commit to doing something it strengthens their resolve
to follow through.

Research shows that commitments have a strong effect on people’s

behaviour and are most effective when they are written and when the
commitment is made public.1

Examples
Putting ourselves in harms way
95% of people who agreed to watch a stranger’s belongings intervened
to stop a thief, compared to only 20% of passive bystanders.1

Asking visitors to promise to do no harm to the environment

Threatened by negative impacts of
tourism, the archipelago of Palau
now requires every visitor to sign
the Palau Pledge in their passport
as a condition of entry into the
country, vowing to leave no waste
and to do no harm to the island.2
An impact evaluation hasn’t yet
been completed.

Page 15
How to use
• Increase the number of people who follow through and perform a
desired action by getting them to make a commitment.

• Verbal commitments are good.

• Written commitments are better.

• Making the commitment public strengthens its effect.

• Using prompts to remind people of their commitment may help

prolong its effects.

Related BI principles
• Consistency
• Make a plan
• Reciprocity
• Start small to build momentum

References
1 Moriarty, T. (1975) Crime, commitment, and the responsive bystander: Two field experiments.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 31, 370-376.
2 https://palaupledge.com/

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Messenger
Effect
Description
The messenger matters. That is, the person who delivers a message
has an important impact on whether people pay attention it.
We are particularly influenced by people
who are similar to us in terms of
demographic characteristics and interests,
by people we like, and by people with
authority (e.g. experts and those with high
standing).

Examples
We are more likely to vote after talking to someone similar to us
Researchers organised Latino canvassers to mobilise
low-turnout Latino communities in the USA. The
canvassing increased turnout amongst Latino voters
from 13.8% to 18.5%. The impact on non-Latino voters
was also positive, but lower, demonstrating the
importance of having messengers to whom voters can
relate and connect.1

Encouraging weightlifters to reduce meat consumption

Athletes and weightlifters tend to value meat consumption, and may be
resistant to traditional arguments for adopting a plant-based diet. A
recent documentary – The Game Changers – uses high level athletes
and bodybuilders as messengers to convince this resistant audience of
the benefits and viability of a plant-based diet.2

Page 17
How to use
• Choose a messenger that is most likely to influence your target
group.

• Consider selecting messengers that have some combination of the

following characteristics:
• are demographically similar to the audience
• share an important group membership with the audience
• are respected (e.g. kaumatua)
• occupy a central role in the group
• are nominated by others as someone who is good at sharing
information
• are well known or famous
• are experts or authorities
• are able to deliver their message in person for maximum
impact.

Related BI principles
• Descriptive social norms
• Liking
• Authority

References
1 Michelson, M.R. (2003) Getting out the Latino vote: how door-to-door canvassing influences
voter turnout in rural central California. Political Behaviour, 25, 247-263.
2 Christiano, A. & Neimand A. (2018). The science of what makes people care. Stanford Social

Innovation Review.
https://ssir.org/articles/entry/the_science_of_what_makes_people_care

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Start Small to
Build Momentum
Description
People want to act consistently with their past actions, and tend to feel
bad when they don’t. Past actions are also often used as a mental
shortcut for whether or not to do something new, and research shows
that people are more likely to agree to do something new if it is
consistent with their past behaviour. This can be useful to keep in mind
when helping people develop new habits.

Encouraging small, easy actions first can lead people to perform a

bigger, harder actions later. Having already done the small action,
people are more likely to respond positively to larger requests, as they
are now ‘the sort of person’ to do such things.

For example, petitions are often used by advocacy groups not just as a
tool to influence government, but as a way to increase future action
amongst those who sign the petition.

Examples
‘Foot-in-the-door’ technique
Researchers increased the proportion of residents agreeing to the
installation of a large driver safety billboard in their yard from 17% to
76%. How? By asking them a week earlier to put a small, amateurish-
looking "Be a safe driver" card in their window or car.1 The researchers
coined this the ‘foot-in-the-door’ technique.

Reducing drink driving

A random group of regular bar patrons were asked to sign an anti-
drink-driving petition. Compared to patrons who weren’t asked, the
group was significantly more likely to take a taxi home when observed
to be intoxicated in the bar over the subsequent six-week period.2

Page 19
How to use
• Start by asking people to make a small, easy change in behaviour.

• Purposefully and systematically build on the small initial change by

encouraging larger, more impactful changes.

• Try to ensure the initial request is as similar to subsequent requests

as possible.

• Use that initial act to encourage people to see themselves as the

‘sort of people’ who care about the underlying issue being
addressed by the behaviour.

• Ensure there is an adequate delay between the initial and

subsequent requests (as research shows the effect is stronger when
there is a delay of days or weeks between the first and subsequent
requests).3

Related BI principles
• Consistency
• Commitments
• Defaults
• Make a plan

References
1 Freedman, J. L., & Fraser, S. C. (1966). Compliance without pressure: The foot-in-the-door
technique. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 4, 195–202.
2 Guadagno R. E. & Cialdini R. B. (2010). Preference for consistency and social influence: a

review of current research findings. Social Influence, 5(3),152–163.

3 Taylor, T., & Booth‐Butterfield, S. (1993). Getting a foot in the door with drinking and driving: A

field study of healthy influence. Communication Research Reports, 10(1), 95–101.

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Descriptive
Social Norms
Description
We look to the behaviour of others to guide our behaviour.

Descriptive social norms refer to the actual behaviour of others.

Contrary to the desire to be unique, when we see or hear about a large
number of people doing something, we are more likely to do it
ourselves.

Highlighting what the majority of people are doing, in the form of a

social norm message (e.g. “8 out of 10 people…”), has a reliable
impact on people’s behaviour – especially when those performing the
behaviour share demographic or other characteristics with the recipient
of the message. Check how this differs
from ‘trending social
norms’
Examples
Tax payments
Including a social norm message describing the percentage of people
who pay their tax on time in late payment reminder letters (“The great
majority of people in your local area pay their tax on time. Most people
with a debt like yours have paid it by now.”) increased payment rates
by 15% (from 33.6% to 38.6%).1

Energy conservation
Informing residents that they use more energy than their neighbours
results in reductions in energy use.2

Encouraging product purchases

Restaurant diners were 20% more likely to choose
a dessert when it was labelled “Most Popular!”.3

Page 21
How to use
Consider whether the behaviour you are trying to encourage is
performed by the majority of people

• Where possible, collect stats on how many people are performing

the behaviour, and tell people about it (e.g. “X% of people…”, “X out
of 10 people…”, “The great majority of people…”).

• Present the stats as specific, personalised, and localised as

possible (e.g. in the local area, in the recipient’s group or club)

• Caution 1: Avoid highlighting a negative social norm (i.e. when not

many people are doing the desired behaviour, or lots of people are
doing something undesirable) as it is likely to encourage
undesirable behaviour.

• Caution 2: People who are already doing better than the norm (e.g.
recycling more, using less energy) are at risk of being drawn down
to the norm, and reducing their desirable behaviour. Use messages
of encouragement and approval (e.g. ☺ feedback) to prevent this
from happening.

Related BI principles
• Trending social norms
• Messenger effect
• Scarcity

References
1 Hallsworth, M., List, J. A., Metcalfe, R. D. & Vlaev, I. (2014). The behavioralist as tax collector:
using natural field experiments to enhance tax compliance, National bureau of economic
research working paper.
2 Allcott, H. (2011). Social norms and energy conservation. Journal of Public Economics 95(9-

10), 1082-95.
3 Martin, S. (2019) Presentation on social influence. Auckland Council.

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Trending
Social Norms
Description
We look to the behaviour of others to guide our behaviour.

Trending social norms refer to a behaviour that is on the rise and

may become a future descriptive social norm (see the other card on
this topic!). Often a desired behaviour may still be relatively uncommon
overall but is becoming more common. A trending norm reflects the
start of a social movement, the wave of influence that spreads through
a group as people adopt a new behaviour. Highlighting the fact that
others are adopting the behaviour increases the
likelihood of people joining the movement.
Check how this differs
from ‘descriptive social
norms’

Examples
Decreasing water usage
Students exposed to a trending pro-environmental norm (i.e. info
about how the percentage of university students engaging in water
saving behaviour is increaseing) subsequently used less water when
brushing their teeth.1

Reducing meat consumption

People were more likely to order meat-free cafeteria lunches when
exposed to information about how 30% of Americans have recently
started changing their behaviour to reduce meat
consumption (trending norm), than when told
that 30% of American’s routinely make an effort
to limit meat consumption (descriptive norm), or
no information at all (the control).2

Page 23
How to use
• If the number of people performing a desired behaviour is
increasing – even if it is still only a minority of people – highlight this
change to encourage others to join in.

• Describe the change in the desired behaviour over recent times,

using truthful statistics. Invite people to join in.

• Examples of trending norm wording used in studies include:

“More and more customers are switching from to-go-cups to a sustainable
alternative. Be part of this movement and choose a reusable mug.”

“Some people are starting to limit how much meat they eat. This is true
both nationally and here at Stanford. Specifically, recent research has
shown that, over the last 5 years, 30% of Americans have started to make
an effort to limit their meat consumption. That means that, in recent years,
3 in 10 people have changed their behaviour and begun to eat less meat
than they otherwise would.”3

Related BI principles
• Descriptive social norms
• Messenger effect
• Scarcity

References
1 Mortensen, C. R., Neel, R., Cialdini, R. B., Jaeger, C. M., Jacobson, R. P., & Ringel, M. M.
(2017). Trending norms: A lever for encouraging behaviors performed by the minority.
Social Psychological and Personality Science, 10(2), 1-10.
2 Sparkman, G., & Walton, G.M. (2017). Dynamic norms promote sustainable behavior, even if It

is counternormative. Psychological Science, 28(11), 1663-1674.

3 Loschelder, D. D., Siepelmeyer, H. Fischer, D. & Rubel, J. A. (2019). Dynamic norms drive

sustainable consumption: Norm-based nudging helps café customers to avoid

disposable to-go-cups, Journal of Economic Psychology,

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Timely
Prompts
Description
We’re all busy and it can be hard to remember to do everything we
need to do, let alone everything we want to do.

Timely prompts can be extremely useful for helping people remember

to do the things they want to do, at the time that they need to do it.

Prompts can come in many forms: they can

be visual, auditory, tactile, physical. Prompts
can be delivered in relation to physical
locations, tasks, or times.

Examples
Text reminders to vote
The NZ Electoral Commission trialled sending text reminders to a
random selection of potential voters on General Election day, 2008.
The message resulted in a 6.6% increase in turnout compared to those
who didn’t receive the message (75.5% and 70.8%, respectively).1

A timely ask can triple charitable giving

A trial was run to determine whether a timely prompt about charitable
giving when people were preparing a will would impact on how much
money they left to charity. Simply asking whether they wished to leave
any money to charity doubled the number of people who chose to
donate (from 5% to 10%). Asking whether they wished to donate to a
personal passion tripled the number (to 15%).2

Page 25
How to use
• Consider when the best time would be to prompt someone to
perform the desired behaviour.

• Consider how the prompt should be delivered (e.g. text message,

email, phone call, physical sign).

• Consider what time the prompt should be delivered (e.g. time of

day, day of week).

• If the behaviour has a ‘critical window’ (i.e. it has to be completed at

a certain time of day or at a precise location) then the prompt should
be delivered as close as possible in terms of physical location and
time to where/when the behaviour needs to be performed.

• If there is a risk that recipients will get used to the prompt and start
ignoring it over time, consider periodically changing how and when
the prompt is delivered.

Related BI principles
• Major life events
• Fresh start effect
• Attract attention

References
1 Catt, H. and P. Northcote. (2009) Did a txt reminder on election day increase voter turnout?
New Zealand Electoral Commission.
2 Behavioural Insights Team (2013). Applying Behavioural Insights to Charitable Giving. Cabinet

Office, UK.

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Major Life
Events
Description
The timing of an intervention matters. Research shows that people are
more open to changing their habits during major life events, such as
moving to a new house, changing jobs, and having children.1

Such events reflect ‘critical periods’ for behaviour change, and

interventions that are timed to coincide with periods of greater
openness to habit change are more likely to be effective. Research
shows the duration of the ‘window of opportunity’ is likely about three
months after the major life event.

Examples
Moving house and pro-environmental behaviour
A large-scale experiment showed that people who had just moved
house were much more likely to change their behaviour in response to
an intervention promoting sustainable behaviour than both households
that moved but didn’t receive the intervention and those who didn’t
move.2

Moving house is a time to encourage new travel behaviour

There is evidence that when people move to a new house they are
much more open to changing their transport behaviour.3 Researchers
tracked people who had recently moved house and sent a random
selection of people a free public transport ticket and personalised
schedule information to encourage public transport use. Those who
received the ticket and info significantly increased their public transport
use and decreased their driving; those who didn’t receive anything
continued with their old habits.

Page 27
How to use
• Consider whether there are any life events that present a natural
‘window of opportunity’ for changing behaviour. People are more
likely to be open to new ways of doing things when their normal
habits are disrupted by the life event.

• Time your interventions to coincide with these windows of

opportunity.

• Be aware that the opportunity to influence people after their habits

have been disrupted does not last forever. Research suggests (for
moving house, at least) that the duration of the window of
opportunity is likely about three months after the major life event.

• Remember to act sensitively and appropriately in relation to the

nature of the life event. For example, an intervention that is
appropriate after someone moves house may not be appropriate
after someone loses a loved one.

Related BI principles
• Timely prompts
• Attract attention
• Set the right ‘default’

References
1 Verplanken, B. & Roy, D. (2016). Empowering interventions to promote sustainable lifestyles:
testing the habit discontinuity hypothesis in a field experiment, Journal of Environmental
Psychology, 45, 127-34.
2 Ibid.
3 Bamberg, S. (2006). Is a residential relocation a good opportunity to change people’s travel
behavior? Results from a theory-driven intervention study. Environment and Behavior,
38(6), 820-840.

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Make a
Plan
Description
People commonly have intentions to change their behaviour (e.g. eat
healthier) but do not end up taking action – a phenomenon known in
psychology as the ‘intention-behaviour gap’. This is because behaviour
is influenced by more than just our good intentions: things like our
emotions and the environment around us can lead us astray.
Luckily, helping people make
a plan can significantly
increase their ability to follow
through. Identifying potential obstacles and developing an "if-then
plan" can lead to better goal attainment and habit formation.

Examples
Increasing pro-environmental behaviours
People who made a plan were more likely than those who didn’t to use
a new bus route and shop at a bio-store.1

Increasing physical activity

A short plan-making intervention significantly increased physical
activity amongst those with chronic back pain, compared to a control
group who didn’t receive the intervention.2

Increasing academic performance

Students who were randomly assigned to a group that developed a
study plan exerted 60% more effort in preparing for an important test
than those who were assigned to a group that wasn’t encouraged to
make a plan.3

Page 29
How to use
• Help people make a specific, written plan to follow through on their
intentions

• WOOP My Life (www.woopmylife.org) is an excellent tool for

developing an effective plan. It combines plan making with a
technique called ‘mental contrasting’ (basically, visualising one’s
goals as well as the obstacles to achieving those goals).

• WOOP stands for Wish, Outcome, Obstacle, Plan, and you use it by
working through the following:
1. What is your wish?
2. What would be the best outcome if you fulfilled your wish?
3. What is your main inner obstacle that holds you back from
fulfilling your wish?
4. Make a plan to overcome your obstacle. Develop a plan
using the following format “if… (obstacle), then I will …
(action or thought).” Try to be as specific as possible.

Related BI principles
• Commitments
• Consistency

References
1 Bamberg, S. (2002). Effects of implementation intentions on the actual performance of new
environmentally friendly behaviors. Results of two field experiments. Journal of
Environmental Psychology, 22, 399-411.
2 Christiansen, S., Oettingen, G., Dahme, B., & Klinger, R. (2010). A short goal-pursuit

intervention to improve physical capacity: A randomized clinical trial in chronic back pain
patients. Pain, 149, 444-452.
2 Duckworth, A. L., Grant, H., Loew, B., Oettingen, G., & Gollwitzer, P. (2011). Self-regulation

strategies improve self-discipline in adolescents: Benefits of mental contrasting and

implementation intention. Educational Psychology, 31(1), 17-26.

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Confirmation
Bias
Description
People generally like to be right. When the world conforms to our
expectations, we feel competent and in control. The trouble begins,
however, when our preference for being right interferes with our ability to
adjust our beliefs in response to new facts and information.
Confirmation bias1 is our tendency to
subconsciously seek out evidence that
confirms our existing beliefs and attitudes and
to ignore, misinterpret or reject evidence that
opposes them. This bias results in people
being less open to new facts and can lead to
poorer decisions.

Examples
Polarisation of attitudes
Research shows that when two people with opposing views on an issue
consider a piece of information that contains some support for both views,
they each interpret it as being supportive only of their current belief and
become even more convinced that their own view is the correct one.2 This
effect is strongest for value-driven, emotionally charged issues, e.g.
welfare, gun control, law and order.

Social media
Social media, such as Facebook and Instagram, is notorious for using
algorithms to show users information that is likely to be in line with their
preferences and beliefs. However, even without clever machine code,
most people would create their personalised ‘echo chambers’ by
surrounding themselves with like-minded voices and shutting out
opposing views.

Page 31
What can you do about it?
Forewarned is forearmed
Recognising that you may be subject to this bias is your first line of
defence. It will help you step outside your comfort zone and seek out
information that is inconsistent with your existing opinions.

Image by Kris Straub

Find a likeable ‘devil’s advocate’

Ask somebody you like and respect to play devil’s advocate by poking
holes in your reasoning and asking tough questions. Make a point not to
argue your side; instead, record the issues they raise and try to
understand their reasoning.

Be comfortable with being uncomfortable

When you are dealing with something important or emotionally charged, it
is not easy to give fair consideration to the side you don’t agree with. It
requires a certain mental fortitude and determination. If you are not at
least a little bit uncomfortable, you are not doing it right.

Related BI principles
• Groupthink
• IKEA effect
References
1. Nickerson, R. S. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises.
Review of General Psychology, 2(2), 175–220. https://doi.org/10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175
2. Lord, C. G.; Ross, L.; Lepper, M. R. (1979). Biased assimilation and attitude polarization:
The effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence. Journal of Personality
and Social Psychology. 37(11), 2098–2109.
3. Quattrociocchi, W., Scala, A, & Sunstein, C. R., (2016). Echo chambers on Facebook,
SSRN.

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Anchoring
Bias
Description
The human brain has a tendency to give too much weight to the first
piece of information that it encounters on an unfamiliar topic. It is natural
that people need a starting point for their reasoning; however, this
becomes problematic when the first piece of information influences our
subsequent thinking too much.
Anchoring bias occurs when the first piece of
information becomes an ‘anchor’ for subsequent
reasoning, estimates and decision-making.1 This
bias is surprisingly strong and widespread. Even
seemingly irrelevant information can have an
effect.

Examples
Estimating Voter Turnout
What was the voter turnout in 2019 local government elections in Nelson
City? Was it less or more than 30.2%? If you don’t know the answer off
the top of you head, chances are your estimate would be unduly
influenced by the implicitly suggested 30% mark. Find out the correct
answer by looking at the back of the card.2

Salary negotiations
During salary negotiations, the party that offers the first dollar figure
anchors the subsequent conversation.3 Contrary to popular belief that
negotiators must play their cards close to their chest and get the other
party to reveal their preferences first, it can, in some instances, be a
shrewd tactic to lay your (cheekily high) cards down first.

Page 33
What can you do about it?
Watch out for anchors
Anchors are not always as easy to spot as the first offer in a salary
negotiation. Watch out for other things that can anchor your reasoning:
casually expressed ideas from others, your own first reflections, and data
that may not be reliable or even relevant.

Avoid anchoring others

If you are seeking advice and guidance from others, do not give them your
thoughts first, let them come up with their own estimates. Similarly, in a
group discussion, get people to write their initial thoughts down before
sharing.

Defuse the anchor

When you are presented with an anchoring estimate that you do not find
reasonable, make sure to defuse the anchor by clearly stating your
impressions of it or further investigating its basis. Then try to approach the
situation anew and provide an independent estimate.

Related BI principles
• Focusing illusion
• Availability bias

References
1. Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982). On the study of statistical intuitions. Cognition, 11,
123-141.
2. The answer is 51.9%, reported here https://www.lgnz.co.nz/local-government-in-
nz/vote2019/voters/final-voter-turnout-2019/
3. Gunia, B. C., Swaab, R. I., Sivanathan, N., et al. (2013). The remarkable robustness of the
first-offer effect: Across culture, power and issues. Personality and Social Psychology
Bulletin, 39, 1547-1558.

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Loss
Aversion
Description
What would affect your mood more: finding $1,000 or losing $1,000?

Even though the value of the two options is the same, you would probably
be more upset about losing your own money than you would be happy
about finding someone else's.

Loss aversion1 is people’s tendency to place more importance on losses

than on the equivalent gains. It applies widely: to money, possessions,
power and status. Research suggests that we feel losses about twice as
strongly as equivalent gains.

One explanation for loss aversion is that we are evolutionarily wired to

pay more attention to losses and negative information. Research shows
that bad everyday events have stronger effects than good events on a
wide variety of wellbeing measures.

Examples
Risky shift in government decision-making
How a problem is framed can have a strong impact on the type of
decisions politicians and civil servants end up making. Both groups are
more likely to choose a risky policy option when it is presented in terms of
the loss it might prevent, rather than the benefits it might accrue (e.g.
framing a policy in terms of how many deaths it might prevent vs how
many lives it might save, even when the numerical loss of life is the
same).2

Framing decisions to motivate action

In one study, researchers looked at how framing affected women’s
intentions to perform breast self-exams to test for early signs of cancer.3
Women received an information brochure that stressed either (i) the
benefits of performing the self-exam, or (ii) the losses that may result from
inaction. Can you guess which brochure was more persuasive?
Page 35
What can you do about it?
Relax
Try to relax next time you are concentrating too much on one piece of
negative feedback amid a stream of positive ones.

Scale things down

People’s tendency to give more weight to losses than the equivalent gains
gets stronger as the size of the losses and gains increases.4 One way to
mitigate the potential effect of loss aversion on decision making is to scale
the discussion down to a smaller number, for example by converting
losses and gains to percentages (thus scaling to 100).

Contextualise
The perceived magnitude of losses and gains is influenced by the context.
One way to avoid potential losses having a disproportionate effect on
decisions is to discuss those losses in the broader context.4 This broader
context often gives decisionmakers perspective.

Use losses to motivate action

Consider framing information in terms of potential losses rather than
gains as a way to motivate action.

Related BI principles
• Sunk costs
• Anchoring

References
1. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1992). Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative
representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5, 297-323.
2. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of
choice. Science, 211(4481), 453-458
3. Meyerowitz, B.E. & Chaiken, S. (1987). The effect of message framing on breast self-
examination attitudes, intentions, and behaviour. Journal of Personality and Social
Psychology, 52(3), 500-510.
4. Mukherjee, S., Sahay, A., Pammi, V.S.C., Srinivasan, N. (2017). Is loss-aversion
magnitude-dependent? Measuring prospective affective judgments regarding gains and
losses. Judgement and Decision Making, 12(1), 81-89.

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Groupthink

Description
Generally speaking, people like to get along with others. To achieve this,
most of us habitually monitor our behaviour to ensure it is aligned with
social rules and expectations. This usually works well, and it helps create
environments that are productive and emotionally safe for both work and
play.

The trouble begins, however, when a person’s desire to get along

overshadows their ability to reason rationally and challenge the thinking of
others in their group.

Groupthink is a form of dysfunctional group decision-making

characterised by self-censorship and pressure to conform. It often results
in sub-optimal or irrational decisions.

Examples
Many an organisational decision-making process has been derailed due
to the inability or unwillingness of group members to openly disagree with
each other and with their leadership.

There are plenty of historic examples of teams within governments being

reluctant to voice concerns and – against better judgment – supporting
their leaders’ questionable policies.1 One such instance was in 1938 when
the British Prime Minister kept yielding to Hitler’s demands in an effort to
appease him. Though this policy was heavily criticized by the public, the
PM’s cabinet did not openly question the course of action.

Groupthink is most prevalent in situations where a decision-making group

is highly homogeneous and cohesive, when it faces an external threat and
when members are prone to overestimating the group’s power and
morality.

Page 37
What can you do about it?
Assemble a diverse group
Groupthink is most pronounced among homogeneous groups. Getting
together a group that is diverse in perspectives and demographics and is
comfortable sharing honest opinions can add substantial value to the
robustness of the discussion.

Be a quiet leader (or Be quiet, leader!)

Group leaders should recognise that once they state their opinion, it can
be psychologically difficult for group members to offer opposing
viewpoints. Leaders may be wise to withhold their views until after others
have had a chance to express theirs.

Set group norms

Groupthink can be counteracted by setting the meeting rules for members
to voice all relevant considerations, no matter how inconvenient.

Make sharing anonymous

For particularly difficult decisions or contentious topics, it may be wise to
solicit opinions in an anonymous way. This can easily be done online, and
could take place before, during and even after the sessions.

Use collaborative ‘red teaming’2

Important projects may benefit from assembling a ‘red team’ – a group
whose sole purpose is to find weakness in the project, so they can be
addressed proactively.

Related BI principles
• Confirmation bias
• Captainitis

References
1. Janis, I. L. (1982). Groupthink: psychological studies of policy decisions and fiascoes.
Boston: Houghton Mifflin.
2. Hallsworth, M., Egan, M., Rutter, J., & McCrae J. (2018). Behavioural government: Using
behavioural science to improve how governments make decisions. The Behavioural Insights
Team. London, UK.

Date created: 29 June 2020

 IKEA
Effect
Description
IKEA is the largest furniture retailer in the
world. Its success is stunning given that the
company off-loads a lot of labour to its
customers, who need to assemble the
products themselves. The resulting low prices
are of course an important part of IKEA’s
success story, but there is also a deeper
psychological reason for the company’s
success.
Dubbed the IKEA effect, the reason is that we like things more when
we have made them ourselves.1

Examples
When labour leads to love
Non-profit organisations often have admirable goals and a passionate,
dedicated workforce. But when people devote a lot of effort and time to
any project, they can fall victim to the IKEA effect (“I have worked so hard
on this project, it must be great!”) and their assessment of the value of
their work can become clouded. The only way to be objective in this case
is to use data to monitor and evaluate the work.

IKEA creations
Participants were asked to either make an IKEA box or inspect one that
was pre-built.2 When given a chance to bid on these items later, those
who assembled the box themselves bid more on it (and liked the box
more) than those who just inspected the box. In a similar experiment with
origami, participants who made origami themselves (compared to those
who just looked at the pre-made origami) thought other people would pay
more for their relatively-unskilled creations.

Page 39
What can you do about it?
Involve your stakeholders
If your project requires buy-in from stakeholders who do not have to
participate in design or planning, find a way to involve them anyway. This
is not just good practice: if stakeholders contribute to shaping the final
product, they are more likely to like and support it.

Guard against the sunk cost fallacy

It is common knowledge that we need to assess the value of projects on
their potential future performance rather than on the time or money we
have already invested. However, this ‘sunk cost fallacy’ is sometimes
difficult to avoid, and now you know why that it is – if we spend time and
effort creating something, we tend to overvalue it. When evaluating
potential projects, it may be good practice to disregard the investment you
have already made and cannot recover.

Related BI principles
• Confirmation bias
• Sunk costs

References
1. Norton, M. & Mochon, D., Ariely, D. (2011). The IKEA effect: When labor leads to love.
Journal of Consumer Psychology, 22, 453-460.
2. Ibid.

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Focusing
Illusion
Description
Who do you think is happier – Americans living in the cold Midwest or in
sunny California? If your intuition tells you that Californians must be
happier, you wouldn’t be alone. That is, you wouldn’t be alone in being
wrong.

In one study, Midwesterners and Californians both thought that

Californians would be happier, when in fact both groups reported the
same levels of life satisfaction.1 People focused too much on the obvious
differences in climate in making decisions about others’ happiness.

The focusing illusion is our tendency to focus on the one or two obvious
differences between choices, and to ignore, or underestimate, the less
visible but potentially more important factors.

Examples
The focusing illusion leads to driving over taking the bus
The choice to commute by car is influenced primarily by a prediction of
how it feels to drive a car, compared to other modes. This comparison is
overly influenced by the most obvious features of the car and bus itself
(looks, seats etc.), rather than the nature of the journey. This leads people
to predict they will enjoy car commuting more than bus commuting, but
when people are surveyed during their commute in their car at the lights,
or on the bus, those riding the bus were more positive than car drivers.2
Harvard happiness
Harvard University has a range of dormitories and
students often hope to get into one of ‘the best’
dorms, predicting that they will be happier if they
do. In reality, research shows that students in the
most desirable dormitories are no happier than
students in other dormitories.3

Page 41
What can you do about it?
Focus on objectives
The focusing illusion is usually a problem when people think of decisions
in terms of alternative courses of action: i.e. we can either choose A or B.
As a result, prominent differences between the options come to the
foreground and dominate thinking.

Instead, try focusing on your objectives – what do you want to achieve?

The trick here is not only to specify what you want (e.g. happiness), but
also to break it down into what that means in your particular decision
context (e.g. quality of personal relationships, access to recreation, etc.).

If students in the Harvard study had thought more about what kinds of
things actually contributed to their happiness, they may have foreseen
that the architectural sophistication of their dorm was far from the most
important factor.

Related BI principles
• Anchoring bias
• Availability bias

References
1. Schkade, D. A., & Kahneman, D. (1998). Does living in California make people happy? A
focusing illusion in judgments of life satisfaction. Psychological Science, 9(5), 340-346.
2. Comerford, D. A. (2011). Attenuating focalism in affective forecast of the commuting
experience: implication for economic decisions and policy making. Journal of Economic
Psychology, 32(5), 691-699.
3. Dunn, E.W., Wilson, T.D., & Gilbert, D. T. (2003). Location, location, location: The
misprediction of satisfaction in housing lotteries. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin,
29(11), 1421-1432.

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Sunk
Costs
Description
Imagine that you have bought an expensive ticket to attend a
talk by an author you like. Early on in the show, however, you
realise that the guy is not a great speaker and you are
getting very bored. Luckily, you are sitting right next to an exit
and can sneak out without anyone noticing. Would you do it?

If you felt obliged to endure the rest of the talk because you
had already paid for the ticket, you would be falling for the
sunk cost fallacy. Rationally, the costs that we have already
incurred (and cannot recover) should not affect our decisions
about the future.
So because you can’t get your money back either way, your only real
choices are: to suffer boredom as you try listen to the rest of the talk or to
leave and spend a more pleasant evening elsewhere.

Examples
Canadian payroll programme
In 2018, the Canadian government paid an enormous amount of money1
to a software developer to fix a payroll program that the developer had
created. The government opted to do this instead of paying less money
to buy a entirely new system from a different provider.

Concorde
The sunk cost fallacy is sometimes referred to as the
Concorde fallacy. This is because the British and French
governments, who jointly developed the supersonic aircraft
in the 1960s-70s, continued to invest in the project and absorb additional
costs even after it became apparent that the idea was not viable
economically. Concorde stopped operating in 2003.

Page 43
What can you do about it?
Recognise the dilemma
Before sunk cost becomes a fallacy, it is a sunk cost dilemma. When we
incur costs for something we become personally invested in it, and it is not
psychologically easy to discount the investment. Recognising that you are
faced with a sunk cost dilemma will help you think more rationally about
the problem at hand.

Cut your losses

Quite simply, sometimes the best option is to terminate an unprofitable
project, even though a lot had been invested in it. Cut your losses by
making decisions based on future benefits and costs only.

Think through other relevant objectives

Some recent research highlights the fact that the sunk cost ‘fallacy’ is not
always a fallacy.2 In some contexts there may be other pertinent
considerations: non-monetary considerations (e.g. reputational costs),
practical constraints (e.g. time constraints in which you need to deliver a
viable if somewhat less-than-perfect product), or political imperatives.
Being honest and explicit about what you want to achieve will help you
make a rational choice.

Related BI principles
• IKEA effect

References
1. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/phoenix-cost-more-than-one-billion-dollars-
1.4594115
2. McAfee, R. P., Mialon, H. M. and Mialon, S. H. (2010). Do sunk costs matter? Economic
Inquiry, 48, 323-336.

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Availability
Bias
Description
People are often bad at predicting the future. In particular, we are bad at
estimating how likely various events may be. This is because we often
base our estimates on how easy it is to remember examples of such
events occurring.

For example, people tend to judge natural disasters are more likely after
one has recently featured on the news, because an example is now
easier to bring to mind.

The availability bias (often called the availability heuristic)1 is our tendency
to give too much weight to the things that come to our minds easily – we
tend to conclude that these things are more important and/or more
widespread than they are in reality.

Examples
Social reality judgements
Media coverage plays an important role in giving us vivid examples of
unlikely events and skewing our estimates. We tend to overestimate the
prevalence of low-frequency memorable events (e.g. child kidnapping) if
media frequently covers it in vivid detail. Research shows, for example,
that people think their worlds are more dangerous when they watch a lot of
crime television.2

The logic of lotteries

Playing the lottery is a not a rational choice – the chances of winning big
are so small that the average player is guaranteed to lose money. Yet,
some people are happy to pay the price, in part because lottery organisers
spend a lot of time promoting jackpot winners. These easy-to-recall
examples of winners contribute to players overestimating their chances of
winning.

Page 45
What can you do about it?
Verify your intuitions with evidence
Unfortunately, availability bias is not something that we can switch off. We
can’t help but rely on our memory. The best we can do is recognise that
our intuitions may be wrong and verify them by gathering further
evidence.

Rethink your problem

The availability bias affects our decision-making by locking us into
thinking narrowly about the problem. Obvious options occur to us easily,
and can dominate our thinking, often at the expense of other uncovered
creative options. Spend some time thinking about the context of your
problem and try to generate more ideas about what you can do before
trying to make a decision about which option to pursue.

Related BI principles
• Anchoring bias
• Focusing illusion

References
1. Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1973). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and
probability. Cognitive Psychology, 5(2), 207-232.
2. Riddle, K. (2010) Always on my mind: Exploring how frequent, recent, and vivid television
portrayals are used in the formation of social reality judgments. Media Psychology, 13(2),
155-179.

Date created: 29 June 2020

 Captainitis

Description
Leaders are often people who are both smart and experienced. This is
usually an advantage to the team; however, research shows that this
advantage can turn deadly if not managed properly.

Captainitis is people’s tendency to defer to the authority of a leader,

and leaders’ tendency to fail to notice the impact of their status on
those around them.

It gets its name from the sometimes-deadly passivity exhibited by

aircraft crew members when the flight captain makes a clearly incorrect
decision. Accident investigators have repeatedly identified the role of
uncorrected captain errors in serious plane crashes.

Examples
Deadly medication doses
An experiment with hospital staff showed that 95
per cent of nurses (21 out of 22) complied with
an unfamiliar doctor’s orders to administer an
unusually large dose of an unauthorised drug to
a real patient.1

The danger in being too smart

James Watson, who with his colleague Francis Crick, won a Nobel Prize
for discovering the double-helix structure of the DNA, once gave an
interview about what made them succeed where others had failed. One of
the more unusual reasons he offered was that they were not the most
intelligent among those trying to crack the DNA code. Rosalind Franklin
was the most brilliant scientist working on the problem; the problem was
that she was so intelligent that she rarely sought anyone else’s advice. ‘If
you are the brightest person in the room, you are in trouble’, Watson said.

Page 47
What can you do about it?
Engage in collaborative deliberation
Before making important decisions, leaders need to encourage
collaborative deliberations with their team. This will mean the decision
benefits from diverse inputs and multiple perspectives.

Invite dissent
As a leader, recognise that it is difficult for your followers to challenge your
stated opinion. Even if they hold and alternative opinion, most will offer
objections only a handful of times, and do so softly, before yielding to your
view. If the decision is important, openly invite dissent and be sure to
listen.

Speak last
Another way to encourage your team to deliberate openly is to withhold
your opinion until much later in the process, so that you can hear the
honest opinions of others.

Related BI principles
• Groupthink
• Confirmation bias

References
1. Hofling, C. K., Brotzman, E., Dalrymple, S., Graves, N. & Bierce, C. (1966). An experimental
study of nurse-physician relations. Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease, 143, 171-180.

Date created: 29 June 2020