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Chapter 6 The Normal Distribution

This document contains solutions to problems involving calculations of probabilities for standard normal distributions. Problem 5-6.1 finds probabilities for values of a standard normal variable Z in different intervals. Problem 5-6.2 finds similar probabilities. Problem 5-6.3 deals with a normal distribution for exam scores. Problems 5-6.4 and 5-6.5 calculate probabilities related to numbers of late tax bills and airline passengers using approximations to the normal distribution.

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25 views

Chapter 6 The Normal Distribution

This document contains solutions to problems involving calculations of probabilities for standard normal distributions. Problem 5-6.1 finds probabilities for values of a standard normal variable Z in different intervals. Problem 5-6.2 finds similar probabilities. Problem 5-6.3 deals with a normal distribution for exam scores. Problems 5-6.4 and 5-6.5 calculate probabilities related to numbers of late tax bills and airline passengers using approximations to the normal distribution.

Uploaded by

ndm070904
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Lecture 5

Problem 5-6. 1. 8.4


For a standard normal random variable Z, find:
(a) P [Z < 1.31]
(b) P [Z > 2.205]
(c) P [.67 < Z < 1.98]
(d) P [−1.32 < Z < 1.055]
Solution
a. P [Z < 1.31] = 90%
b. P [Z > 2.205] = 1%
c. P [.67 < Z < 1.98] = 28%
d. P [−1.32 < Z < 1.055] = 75%

Problem 5-6. 2. 8.7


If Z is a standard normal random variable, what is the probability that
(a) Z exceeds -.72?
(b) Z lies in the interval (−1.50, 1.50)?
(c) |Z| exceeds 2.0?
(d) |Z|is less than 1.0?

Solution
a. P [Z > . − 72] = 1 − P [Z < −.72] = 1 − .24 = .76
b. P [−1.5 < Z < 1.5] = P [Z < 1.5] − P [Z < −1.5] = .93 − .07 = .86
c. P [|Z| > 2.0] = P [Z < −2.0] + P [Z > 2.0] = P [Z < −2.0] + 1 − P [Z <
2.0] = .02 + 1 − .98 = 0.4
d. P [|Z| < 1] = P [−1 < Z < 1] = P [Z < 1] − P [Z < −1] = .84 − .16 = .68

Problem 5-6. 3. 8.11


Suppose that a student’s verbal score X from next year’s Graduate Record
Exam can be considered an observation from a normal population having
mean 497 and standard deviation 120. Find
(a) P [X > 600]
(b) 90th percentile of the distribution
(c) Probability that the student scores below 400

Solution

1
a. First we standardized value X
z = X−497
120
= 600−497
120
= .86
and then look up the value of
P [z < .86] = 80%
So, P [z < .86] = 1 − 80% = 20%
b. we have
90th percentile is z =1.28
z = X−497
120
⇒ X = 120z + 497 = 651
c. First we standardized value X
z = X−497
120
= −.81
then look up the value
P [z < −.81] = 20%

Problem 5-6. 4. 8.19


It is known from past experience that 9% of the tax bills are paid late. If
20,000 tax bills are sent out, find the probability that
(a) Less than 1750 are paid late.
(b) 2000 or more are paid late.

Solution
a. Let X be the number of paid lated bill. The probability of less than 1750
paid lated bill is
1749  
X 20000
P (X < 1750) = (.09)i (1 − .09)20000−i
i
i=0
That function is approximately by the normal distribution with
µ =p np = 20, 000 ∗ .09 = 1800
δ = np(1 − p) = 40
So, we convert X into the normal standard distribution
Z = 1750−1800
40
= −1.25
P [Z < −1.25] = 10%
So, the probability of less than 1750 paid lated bill is 10%.
b. Similar to (a)
Z = 2000−1800
40
=5
P [Z > 5] = 1 − P [Z < 5] = 0
So, the probability of less than 1750 paid lated bill is close to 0%.

Problem 5-6. 5. 8.22

2
Because 10% of the reservation holders are ”no-shows”, a U.S. airline sells
400 tickets for a flight that can accommodate 370 passengers.
(a) Find the probability that one or more reservation holders will not be
accommodated on the flight.
(b) Find the probability of fewer than 350 passengers on the flight.

Solution
Denote X thenumber  of no-showed holders.
400
P (X = x) = .1x (1 − .1)400−x
x
and P [X = x] is approximately by the standard normal distribution with
µ =p np = 400 ∗ .1 =p40
δ = np(1 − p) = 400 ∗ .1 ∗ (1 − .1) = 6
a. If the number of no-show is less than 30, one or more reservation holder
will miss the flight. It means that X < 30.
Z = 30−40
6
= −1.67
P [Z < −1.67] = 1 − P [Z < −1.67] = 1 − 0.0475 = 0.9525 = 95.25%
Thus, the probability of one or more uncommodated holders is 95.25%
b. Fewer than 350 passagers, it means that X > 50.
We convert X into the standard normal distribution
Z = 50−40
6
= 1.67
P [Z > 1.67] = 1 − P [Z < 1.67] = 5%
Thus, the probability of fewer than 350 passengers is 5%.

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