Chapter 1

Climate Change and the Pacific Islands

Lalit Kumar, Sadeeka Jayasinghe, Tharani Gopalakrishnan,

and Patrick D. Nunn

1.1 Introduction

Since the late twentieth century, climate change has undeniably been the world’s
most prominent environmental issue. When it first emerged, climate change was
discussed exclusively by scientists. However, in recent years, the general public has
become much more involved in the concept, with the subject also creating major
political repercussions in several countries. The likely consequences of global cli-
mate change have reached an alarming state in view of environmental, physical, and
socio-economic aspects and pose a critical threat on a global scale. Increased public
involvement in climate change discourse, ensuring subsequent awareness of the
potential threats and uncertainties associated with the issue, is crucial.
The term ‘climate change’ is used with different implications and perspectives.
In its broadest sense, climate change refers to any significant change in the statisti-
cal properties of the climate system that persists for an extended period, typically
30 years (IPCC 2014). In order to understand climate change, one has to have an
understanding of all of the system’s components (i.e. atmosphere, ocean, land sur-
face processes, cryosphere, and biosphere), climate variables (temperature and pre-
cipitation), and climate descriptors (such as the Earth’s surface temperature, ocean

L. Kumar (*) · T. Gopalakrishnan

School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England,
Armidale, NSW, Australia
e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]
S. Jayasinghe
Department of Export Agriculture, Faculty of Animal Science and Export Agriculture,
Uva Wellassa University, Badulla, Sri Lanka
e-mail: [email protected]
P. D. Nunn
University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, QLD, Australia
e-mail: [email protected]

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 1

L. Kumar (ed.), Climate Change and Impacts in the Pacific, Springer Climate,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-32878-8_1
2 L. Kumar et al.

temperatures, and snow cover) (IPCC 2001; Weber 2010). This global phenomenon
has been created from a combination of natural (such as changes in the sun’s radia-
tion and volcanoes) and anthropogenic (such as burning fossil fuels and inappro-
priate land use changes) activities (Fröhlich and Lean 1998).
Palaeoclimatologists have been investigating how the climate system, including
increasing atmospheric temperature trends, rising sea levels, and increasing atmo-
spheric greenhouse gases, has changed on a global scale over many decades
(Easterling et al. 2010). An overwhelming majority in the scientific community con-
clude that future human-induced climate change is inevitable and will have far-­
reaching environmental impacts that will affect the ways people live in many parts
of the world. It is widely agreed that observed global warming is rooted in climate
change. Global warming disturbs natural cycles and causes several irreversible
changes over the long term. The main cause of the warming trend is the emission of
greenhouse gases (GHGs) from human activity which enhances the ‘greenhouse
effect’. The consequences of a continued enhancement of the natural greenhouse
effect is likely to result in warming greater than what has been experienced on aver-
age over the past century. Warmer conditions will result in more evaporation and
precipitation, but different regions will experience these changes at different scales;
some will be wetter and others drier (Van Aalst 2006). Moreover, a stronger green-
house effect increases sea levels, increases ocean heat content, and promotes the
loss of ice mass in Greenland, Antarctica, and the Arctic and mountain glaciers
worldwide; it generates more intense and longer droughts in many regions, rela-
tively lower mountain glaciers and snow cover in both hemispheres, higher atmo-
spheric water vapour, ocean acidification, and changes in the historical pattern of
extreme weather events (Meinshausen et al. 2009; Nerem et al. 2018).
Since the industrial revolution, the average temperature of the Earth has increased;
average global surface temperature rose by 0.9 °C between 1880 and 2015
(Rahmstorf et al. 2017). Much of this heat has been absorbed by the oceans, with the
top 700 meters of ocean warming over 0.2 °C since 1969 (Levitus et al. 2017). This
warming has been driven mainly by increases in all the major GHGs, particularly
carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). Emissions of these
GHGs continue to increase. For example, concentrations of atmospheric CO2 rose
from approximately 290 ppm to 430 ppm between 1880 and 2014 (IPCC 2014). The
IPCC (2014) report states that CO2 concentrations are likely to rise to around
450 ppm by 2030, and if they continue to increase and reach around 750 ppm to
1300 ppm, the Earth may experience global mean temperature rises of 3.7 °C to
7.8 °C (compared to the 1986–2005 average) by 2100 (Rahmstorf et al. 2017). Net
greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic activities worldwide increased by
35% from 1990 to 2010. Burning of fossil fuels is still on the rise and is the primary
cause of observed growth in GHGs, which accounts for 80% of the overall emis-
sions. Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are in the range of 10–15% of the
total emissions, and 5–10% of emissions are created from changes in land use pat-
terns. Increased levels of GHGs cause radiative energy to rise and then increase the
temperature on Earth’s surface. Higher GHG concentrations increase the amount of
heat that the atmosphere absorbs and redirects back to the surface. It has been
1 Climate Change and the Pacific Islands 3

reported that the Earth currently retains approximately 816 terawatts of excess heat
per year, which further increases the surface temperature (Henderson et al. 2015).
Scientific evidence of global warming is unambiguous, and many research orga-
nizations have built a comprehensive basis of evidence to understand how our cli-
mate is already changing (IPCC 2014). Each of the last three decades has been
warmer than any previous decade. Changes have been observed since 1950 in many
extreme weather and climate events (Gutowski et al. 2008). Greenland and
Antarctica’s ice sheets have declined in volume and area. Data from NASA’s Gravity
Recovery and Climate Experiment (NASA 2019) show that, between 1993 and
2016, an average of 286 billion tonnes of ice per year was lost by Greenland, while
Antarctica has lost about 127 billion tonnes of ice per year over the same period.
Over the past decade, the Antarctic ice mass loss rate has tripled (NASA 2019).
Greenland lost 150 km3 to 250 km3 of ice annually between 2002 and 2006, while
Antarctica lost about 152 km3 of ice between 2002 and 2005. Glaciers have retreated
throughout the world, particularly in the Alps, the Himalayas, the Andes, the
Rockies, and Alaska. Declining Arctic sea ice has also been observed over the past
several decades (Church et al. 2013). Satellite images show that the extent of snow
cover in spring in the northern hemisphere has fallen in the last five decades and that
winter snow is now melting earlier than normal (Du Plessis 2018). Over the last
century, global sea level rose about 20.3 cm, yet the rate over the past two decades
is almost double that of the last century and is slightly accelerating each year
(Nerem et al. 2018).
The acidity of ocean waters, particularly surface ocean waters, has increased by
about 30% since the beginning of the industrial revolution. This is due to more CO2
being emitted into the atmosphere with concomitant increases in its absorption by
the oceans. The amount of CO2 absorbed by the upper ocean layer has been increas-
ing by approximately 2 billion tonnes per year (Sabine et al. 2004; Schmutter et al.
2017). The scientific community generally agrees that global warming needs to be
limited to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the twenty-first century in
order to avoid potentially dangerous impacts. This requires concentrations of atmo-
spheric CO2, estimated at around 430 ppm in 2016, to remain below 450 ppm.
Therefore, keeping the Earth within the 2 °C limit requires urgent action. Climate
change is a systemic transboundary problem with far-reaching health, security, and
prosperity implications for the world. However, despite ongoing efforts to mitigate
climate change, global emissions continue to rise. Appropriate approaches will
require systematic global efforts to implement systemic changes, and many ques-
tions remain as to what form such an effort should take (First 2018).
Many scientists are concerned that the impacts of global warming have devel-
oped much more rapidly than expected. Hence the scientific community, the gov-
ernment bodies, and the media have paid considerable attention to climate change
and related issues. Signatories to the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris
Agreement are discussing how best to tackle this problem, in particular by develop-
ing mitigation and adaptation strategies to prevent excessively negative impacts for
future generations and to reduce the world’s vulnerability to these changes (Saxena
et al. 2018; Schelling 2002).
4 L. Kumar et al.

The world is addressing climate change in two ways: mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation involves a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to alleviate the accel-
eration of climate change, whereas adaptation involves learning how to live with
existing climate change and protecting ourselves against unavoidable future climate
change effects (IPCC 2014). The growing body of scientific evidence has led to a
clear global consensus on the need for action. UNFCCC commits parties to address
climate change by ‘preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the cli-
mate system’ by stabilizing GHG levels. Yet the implementation of strategies to
mitigate or survive under turbulent climatic conditions requires a broad acceptance/
awareness of climate change. A broadened perspective on adaptation and mitigation
strategies could help all nations understand the adjustments or actions that can ulti-
mately increase resilience or reduce vulnerability to expected climate and weather
changes (IPCC 2014, 2018).

1.2 Impacts of Climate Change

1.2.1 Global Warming of 1.5 °C

In 2018, the IPCC published a special report on the impacts of exceeding 1.5 °C
global warming. The report prescribed that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C would
need rapid, far-reaching, and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society (First
2018). By limiting global warming to 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C, for example, the
negative impacts of climate change would be significantly reduced. While previous
estimates focused on estimating the damage where average temperatures were to
rise by 2 °C or more (New et al. 2011), this report shows that there will still be many
adverse effects of climate change at 1.5 °C. For example, by 2100, global sea-level
rise would be 10 cm lower with global warming of 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C. With
global warming of 1.5 °C, coral reefs would decline by 70–90%, while almost all
would be lost with a 2 °C increase (Hoegh-Guldberg 2014). Global net human-­
induced CO2 emissions would have to fall by approximately 45% from 2010 levels
by 2030, reaching ‘net zero’ by 2050, in order to limit global warming to 1.5 °C
(First 2018).

1.2.2 Global Warming and Sea-Level Rise

Given the current concentrations and ongoing greenhouse gas emissions, the global
mean temperature is likely to continue to rise above pre-industrial levels by the end
of this century. This has resulted in extensive melting of ice sheets, both in the Arctic
and Antarctic, resulting in rising sea levels regionally and globally. The Arctic Ocean
is anticipated to become essentially devoid of summer ice before the middle of the
1 Climate Change and the Pacific Islands 5

twenty-first century as a result of the warming. Rates of sea-level rise have acceler-
ated since 1870 and now average around 3.5 mm per year (Chen et al. 2017). The
average sea-level rise is projected to be 24–30 cm by 2065 and 40–63 cm by 2100
under various scenarios compared to the reference period of 1986–2005 (Allen et al.
2014; Pachauri et al. 2014).
Accelerated sea-level rise will result in higher inundation levels, rising water
tables, higher and more extreme flood frequency and levels, greater erosion,
increased salt water intrusion, and ecological changes in coastal flora and fauna.
These will lead to significant socio-economic impacts, such as loss of coastal
resources, infrastructure, and agricultural land and associated declines in economic,
ecological, and cultural values (Church et al. 2013). An important issue concerning
rising sea levels is that it could submerge parts of low-lying coastal lands which are
the habitat of an estimated 470–760 million people (Dasgupta et al. 2007). A num-
ber of islands are already submerged, including 11 in Solomon Islands and several
in Pohnpei (Federated States of Micronesia (Albert et al. 2016; Nunn et al. 2017). It
is predicted that between 665,000 and 1.7 million people in the Pacific will be
forced to migrate owing to rising sea levels by 2050, including from atoll islands in
the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Kiribati (Church et al. 2013). Very large propor-
tions of the population of Bangladesh (46%) and the Netherlands (70%) are likely
to be forced to relocate. By 2100, coastal properties worth $238 billion to $507 bil-
lion in the United States alone are likely to be below sea level, with particular risk
of inundation and flooding in major cities including Miami, Florida, and Norfolk,
Virginia (United Nations 2017).

1.2.3 Changing Weather Patterns and Extreme Events

Climate change will also lead to more frequent and/or severe extreme weather
events (Trenberth et al. 2007) and possibly even large-scale, abrupt climate change
(Alley et al. 2003). Extreme weather events occur when an individual climate vari-
able (such as temperature or rainfall) exceeds a specific threshold and forces signifi-
cant divergence from mean climate conditions. The world has already witnessed
direct and indirect impacts of climate forcing on extreme events such as storms,
hurricanes, tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, floods, and hail, and this trend is
expected to continue (Walsh et al. 2016).
Climate change is an urgent threat to the entire human population, contributing
to a range of increases in natural disasters. Global rainfall patterns are shifting with
rising temperatures. Since the late 1990s, Somalia, Kenya, and other East African
countries have experienced lower than average rainfall, contributing to a 30% drop
in crop yields and famines in 2010, 2011, and 2016 (Henderson et al. 2015).
Hurricanes and other destructive weather events have also increased in prevalence.
For instance, the worst typhoons (tropical cyclones) recorded in the Philippines
occurred in 2013, resulting in more than 6000 deaths and a displacement of almost
four million people (Acosta et al. 2016). Since the early 1980s, the intensity,
6 L. Kumar et al.

f­ requency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes and the frequency of the most
severe hurricanes have increased (Kossin et al. 2013). Hurricane-related storm
intensity and rainfall rates are projected to rise as the climate keeps warming. Storm
surges, flooding, and coastal erosion threaten coastal settlements and associated
infrastructure, transportation, water, and sanitation (IPCC 2007).

1.2.4 Pressure on Water and Food

Food production is closely related to water availability. In 2014, 16% of the Earth’s
croplands were irrigated as opposed to rain-fed farming, yet the irrigated land
accounted for 36% of global harvest (Pimentel 2012). It is estimated that by 2020,
approximately 75–250 million people could be affected by increased water stress in
Africa, while rain-fed agriculture-related yields could decrease by up to 50% in
some regions (Moriondo et al. 2006). In Pakistan and India, the warming Earth
combined with water shortages has been blamed for threatening the viability of the
region’s agriculture (Henderson et al. 2015). Without significant GHG emission
reductions, the proportion of the world’s land surface in extreme drought could rise
by 2090 to 30%, compared to the current 1–3%.
Warmer temperatures, increased CO2 levels, and extreme weather events also
affect global food production. Agriculture and fisheries depend on specific climatic
configurations. Increased CO2 or warmer weather has the potential to accelerate
crop growth or increase yields in some crops; however, crop yield starts to decrease
above an optimal temperature that varies from crop to crop (Pimentel 2012). On the
other hand, some plant species can respond favourably to increased atmospheric
CO2 and grow more vigorously and more efficiently using less water (Bowes 1993).
Higher temperatures and changing climate trends can affect the composition of
natural plant cover and change the areas where crops grow best (Rahmstorf et al.
2017). Warmer weather facilitates for the spread of pests, weeds, and parasites,
while extreme weather has the potential to harm farmlands, crops, and livestock.
Climate change could have a direct and indirect impact on livestock production
(Thornton 2010). The warmer climate, particularly heatwaves, has a negative impact
on livestock. Drought will impact pasture and feed supplies, posing a risk to live-
stock retention, while increased prevalence of pests and diseases will affect live-
stock negatively. Temperature changes could affect fisheries by changing the natural
habitat and migration ranges of many aquatic creatures (Brierley and Kingsford 2009).

1.2.5 Human Health Risks

Higher temperatures increase the possibility of injury and death related to heat. In
the 2003 European heatwave, as many as 70,000 people died, and in 2010, more
than 50,000 died in a heatwave in Russia (Parry 2011). Thousands more have been
1 Climate Change and the Pacific Islands 7

affected by severe heatwaves in India in 2015, in Europe in 2006, and in other

regions around the world (Parry 2011). Water and vector-borne diseases are also
projected to increase in a warmer world as insects and other carriers move into
higher latitudes and altitudes (Benitez 2009; Conn 2014). Mosquito-breeding
regions will also change, leading to potentially greater threats from mosquito-borne
diseases (Khormi and Kumar 2014, 2016). A warmer climate also tends to increase
lung-related health risk, while fossil fuel burning can lead to premature deaths. The
World Health Organization found that, in 2012, seven million people died from air
pollution worldwide (Lee and Dong 2012).

1.2.6 Impact on Wildlife and Ecosystems

Climate change also harms many natural habitats and increases many species’ risk
of extinction (IPCC 2014; Van Aalst 2006). The current extinction rate is 100 times
the normal rate, and some scientists predict that the Earth is heading for the sixth
mass extinction event in its history (Barnosky et al. 2011). By 2100, 30–50% of the
world’s terrestrial and marine species may be extinct. Climate change also has sig-
nificant ocean-related effects (IPCC 2014). Oceans absorb about 25% of CO2 emit-
ted from the atmosphere, leading to the acidification of seawater. Over the past
100 years, warming has raised near-surface ocean temperatures by about 0.74 °C
and has made the sea considerably more acidic, likely affecting marine animal
reproduction and survival. As a result of various factors, coral coverage is only half
of what it was in the 1960s in some places, and scientists predict that the world’s
coral reefs could become completely extinct by 2050 (Henderson et al. 2015).
Projected future increases in sea surface temperatures of around 1–3 °C are very
likely to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread coral mor-
tality if corals are unable to acclimatize or adapt (First 2018).
Ecosystems will continue to change with climate, with some species moving
further poleward or becoming more successful at adapting to changes, while some
species may be unable to adapt and could become extinct (Parmesan 2006). Changes
in temperature and rainfall and extreme events may affect the timing of reproduc-
tion in animals and plants, animal migration, length of cropping season, distribution
of species and population sizes, and availability of food species. Increased acidifica-
tion and catastrophic flooding could reduce marine biodiversity and mangrove
wealth (Hoegh-Guldberg 2014; Pearson et al. 2019; Schmutter et al. 2017).

1.3 The Pacific Ocean: Location, Size, and Distribution

The Pacific Ocean is the world’s largest ocean, with an areal extent of 165 million
km2 and average depth of 4000 m, covering more than 30% of the Earth and border-
ing 50 countries or territories’ coastlines (NOAA 2018). The equator divides the
8 L. Kumar et al.

Pacific Ocean into the North Pacific Ocean and the South Pacific Ocean. The South
Pacific Ocean is generally taken to be located between 0° and 60°S latitude and
130°E and 120°W longitude. The Pacific Ocean plays host to a wide range of habi-
tats, such as coral reefs, mangroves, seagrass, and seamounts, and accounts for
much of the world’s marine biodiversity (Cheung et al. 2010) while also playing a
key role in regulating global climate and biogeochemical cycles (Cheung and
Sumaila 2013).
The islands in this region cover nearly 528,090 km2 of land (0.39%) spread
throughout the ocean, with a combined exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of approxi-
mately 30 million km2 (Carlos et al. 2008) and a total coastline of 135,663 km.
Islands are distributed unevenly across the Pacific basin, most being located in the
western, especially in the south and western tropical regions, and the fewest in the
northeastern quadrant (Fig. 1.1) (Nunn et al. 2016b). The islands belong to a mix-
ture of independent states, semi-independent states, parts of non-Pacific Island
countries, and dependent states. The massive realm of islands of the tropical Pacific
Ocean includes approximately 30,000 islands of various sizes and topography. In
general, the size of the islands in the Pacific decreases from west to east. New
Guinea, the largest island, accounts for 83% of the total land area, while Nauru,
Tuvalu, and Tokelau have an area less than 30 km2. Most Pacific Island nations are
comparatively small with total areas less than 1000 km2.
The ocean and its resources play a significant role in the livelihoods of the people
of the Pacific Islands. Oceania’s terrestrial diversity and endemism per unit area are

150°0'0"E 180°0'0" 150°0'0"W 120°0'0"W 90°0'0"W

30°0'0"N

30°0'0"N

HAWAII (USA STATE)

NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS

GUAM REPUBLIC OF
MARSHALL ISLANDS US Administered Islands
in CENTRAL PACIFIC
FEDERATED STATES OF EASTERN PACIFIC
PALAU MICRONESIA OUTLIERS

KIRIBATI
0°0'0"

0°0'0"

NAURU (Gilbert Islands)

PAPUA NEW GUINEA KIRIBATI KIRIBATI
(Phoenix Islands) (Line Islands)
TUVALU
SOLOMON TOKELAU
ISLANDS WALLIS and FUTUNA COOK ISLANDS
SAMOA
VANUATU AMERICAN SAMOA
FRENCH POLYNESIA
NIUE
FIJI
NEW CALEDONIA TONGA PITCAIRN
ISLANDS CHILEAN ISLANDS
(South East Pacific)
30°0'0"S

30°0'0"S

0 1,000 2,000 Kilometres

150°0'0"E 180°0'0" 150°0'0"W 120°0'0"W 90°0'0"W

Fig. 1.1 The Pacific region with distribution of the main countries and territories
1 Climate Change and the Pacific Islands 9

among the highest on the planet (Keppel et al. 2012; Kier et al. 2009). The region
encompasses three global biodiversity hotspots with more than 30,000 plants and
3000 vertebrate species.
Pacific Island countries have been traditionally grouped along the lines of ethno-­
geographic and cultural lines as Melanesia, Micronesia, and Polynesia. This group-
ing excludes the adjoining continent of Australia, the Asian-linked Indonesian,
Philippine, and Japanese archipelagos as well as those comprising the Ryukyu,
Bonin, Volcano, and Kuril arcs which project seaward from Japan.
Melanesia is a subregion of Oceania located in the southwestern region of the
Pacific basin, north of Australia, and bordering Indonesia to its east. The region
includes the four independent countries of Fiji, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, and
Papua New Guinea and New Caledonia which is a French overseas territory. The
dominant feature of Melanesia is relatively large high islands; it includes 98% of the
total land area of the Pacific Islands and approximately 82% of the total population.
Papua New Guinea is the largest among Melanesian countries as well as the largest
country in the Pacific realm with total land area of 67,754 km2 followed by Solomon
Islands (29,675 km2), New Caledonia (21,613 km2), Fiji (20,857 km2), and Vanuatu
(13,526 km2).
Micronesia consists of some 2500 islands spanning more than seven million
square kilometres of the Pacific Ocean north of the equator. Micronesia comprises
only 0.3% of the total land area of the Pacific Islands and about 5% of the Pacific
population. It includes Kiribati, Guam, Nauru, Marshall Islands, Northern Mariana
Islands, Palau, and the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). Kiribati is the largest
country in Micronesia with an area of 995 km2, followed by the Federated States of
Micronesia (799 km2), Guam (588 km2), Northern Mariana Islands (537 km2), Palau
(495 km2), Marshall Islands (286 km2), and Nauru, the smallest single island coun-
try of Micronesia with 23 km2.
Polynesia is the largest region of the Pacific, made up of around 1000 islands
scattered over 8000 km2 in the Pacific Ocean. It is defined as the islands enclosed
within a huge triangle connecting Hawaii to the north, New Zealand to the south-
west, and Easter Island to the east. It encompasses more than a dozen of the main
island groups of central and southern Pacific groups with large distances between
them. Polynesia includes Tuvalu, Tokelau, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa (formerly
Western Samoa), American Samoa, Tonga, Niue, the Cook Islands, French
Polynesia, Easter Islands, and Pitcairn Islands. Polynesia comprises only about 1%
of the total Pacific land area but more than 13% of the total population, excluding
Hawaii. French Polynesia is the largest country with 3939 km2 followed by Samoa
(3046 km2), Tonga (847 km2), Cook Islands (297 km2), Niue (298 km2), American
Samoa (222 km2), Easter Island (164 km2), Tuvalu (44 km2), Pitcairn Island
(54 km2), and Tokelau with 16 km2 area.
In terms of geological origin, the islands can be divided into reef islands, volca-
nic islands, limestone islands, and islands of mixed geological type. The reef islands
are generally composed of unconsolidated sediments and commonly form linear
groups where a reef has grown above a line of submerged volcanic islands. Examples
include most islands in Kiribati, Marshall Islands and Tuvalu, and reef-island groups
10 L. Kumar et al.

in the Federated States of Micronesia, French Polynesia, and the western islands of
the Hawaii group. They are commonly characterized by their tendency to develop
on wide reef surfaces in lower latitudes of the Pacific Ocean (Nunn et al. 2016a).
Volcanic islands are formed when volcanoes erupt (Nunn 1994) and produce
islands often with high altitudes in the centre and extremely rugged inner cores. The
high island terrain of volcanic islands is characterized by often abrupt changes in
elevation (mountains, sheer cliffs, steep ridges, and valleys), with these characteris-
tics varying in altitude and size depending on the island’s age (Keener 2013). High
islands receive more rainfall than the surrounding ocean from orographic precipita-
tion. This occurs because of the height of the interior of the island, with the warm
ocean air being forced up to the higher altitudes, cooling down and falling as rain.
The high island landscape is favourable to the formation and persistence of freshwa-
ter streams and soil development capable of supporting large and diverse popula-
tions of plants and animals (Keener 2013).
The mixed geology-type islands are formed in various ways, principally as a
combination of volcanic and coral reef formation. This commonly occurs when the
volcanic island forms a high island and a coral reef forms a doughnut-shaped island
around it above the water, serving as a barrier from erosion (these are the makatea
island types described by Nunn (1994)). Table 1.1 gives some pertinent details, such
as population, land area, political status, colonial connections, and dominant lithol-
ogy of the main Pacific Island countries.
Sea-level rise will directly impact people living in coastal areas of Pacific Island
countries. Population distribution is increasingly skewed and concentrated along or
near coasts. This is a worldwide phenomenon that is much more pronounced in the
Pacific. Kumar et al. (see Chap. 12) analysed the distribution of populations for 12
countries (Cook Islands, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa,
Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu) in the Pacific and found that around
55% of the population in these countries live within 500 m of the coast, with 20%
residing within 100 m. For some of Pacific Island countries, almost the entire popu-
lation resides in very close proximity to the shoreline. For example, in Kiribati,
Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu, the percentage of people living within 500 m of the
coast are 98%, 98%, and 99%, respectively.

1.4 Emissions by Pacific Island Countries

Greenhouse gas emissions are spread very unevenly across the world, with the top
ten countries generating more than 73.01% of total GHG emissions, and three coun-
tries, China (26.83%), the United States (14.36%), and European Union (9.66%),
are by far the largest contributors (IPCC 2014). The world’s poorest countries have
made the least per capita contribution to carbon emissions in the world. These coun-
tries burn trivial amounts of fossil fuel compared to countries like China, the United
States, Russia, and Australia, and yet they have to bear the greatest impact of cli-
mate change (Padilla and Serrano 2006).
1 Climate Change and the Pacific Islands 11

Table 1.1 Some key characteristics of the main Pacific Island countries
Country or Population Land area Political Colonial Dominant
territory (2014) (km2) status connectionsa lithology
Melanesia
Fiji 903,207 20,857 Independent UK Volcanic
New Caledonia 267,840 21,613 Territory France Limestone
Papua New 6,552,730 67,754 Independent Australia Volcanic
Guinea
Solomon Islands 547,540 29,675 Independent UK Volcanic
Vanuatu 245,860 13,526 Independent UK/France Volcanic
Micronesia
Fed. States of 111,560 799 Free USA Reef
Micronesia Association
Guam 161,001 588 Territory USA Composite
Kiribati 104,488 995 Independent UK Reef
Marshall Islands 54,820 286 Free USA Reef
Association
Nauru 10,800 23 Independent UK Limestone
Northern 51,483 537 Territory USA Volcanic
Mariana Islands
Palau 20,500 495 Free USA Limestone
Association
Polynesia
American Samoa 54,517 222 Territory USA Volcanic
Cook Islands 19,800 297 Free New Zealand Reef
Association
French Polynesia 280,026 3939 Territory France Reef
Niue 1480 298 Free New Zealand Limestone
Association
Samoa 182,900 3046 Independent New Zealand Volcanic
Tokelau 1337 16 Territory New Zealand Reef
Tonga 103,350 847 Independent UK Limestone
Tuvalu 9561 44 Independent UK Reef
Wallis and 15,561 190 Territory France Reef/volcanic
Futuna
a
The current colonial government or prior to attaining independence status
Based on information from Campbell and Barnett (2010), Kumar and Taylor (2015), and Nunn
et al. (2016a)

The Pacific Island region accounts for only 0.03% of the world’s total green-
house gas emissions but is one of the regions that is facing the greatest impacts of
climate change from rising sea levels, warming oceans, drought, coral ecosystem
destruction, ocean acidification, and extreme weather (Rogers and Evans 2011). For
example, CO2 emissions from Kiribati and Tuvalu are among the lowest of all
nations, both in total and per capita terms, yet these are the two countries currently
suffering the most from rising sea levels. From Table 1.2, large differences between
12 L. Kumar et al.

Table 1.2 Total CO2 emissions per country per year and emissions per capita per year measured
in 2017 for representative countries in the Pacific, together with selected larger emitters for
comparison
Total CO2 emissions CO2 emissions per capita
Country (Mt CO2/year) (t CO2/person/year)
Cook Islands 0.07 3.70
Federated States of Micronesia 0.20 1.70
Fiji 1.37 1.55
Kiribati 0.07 0.45
Marshall Islands 0.10 2.30
Nauru 0.10 4.90
New Caledonia 5.76 20.70
Palau 0.86 12.34
Papua New Guinea 5.88 0.70
Samoa 0.17 0.95
Solomon Islands 0.17 0.30
Tonga 0.12 1.30
Tuvalu 0.01 1.10
Vanuatu 0.15 0.50
USA 5188.69 15.85
China 10358.10 7.35
Australia 407.62 16.75
New Zealand 36.39 7.75
India 2460.88 1.80
Notes: (1) Values are fossil fuel-related emissions. They do not consider land use changes or for-
estry. (2) Presented numbers are averages taken from various sources, including https://en.wikipe-
dia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions and http://www.globalcarbonatlas.
org/en/CO2-emissions

emissions by the Pacific Island countries and some of the industrialized nations are
evident. For comparison, it is more logical to look at CO2 emissions on a per capita
basis. For most of the Pacific Island countries, the per capita emissions are below
2.0 t CO2 per year, yet for countries such as Australia and the United States, these
figures are 16.75 and 15.85 t CO2 per year, respectively. Australia is one of the
world’s highest polluters on a per capita basis.

1.5 Projected Climate Change and Impacts

The IPCC report on the impact of global warming states that, if warming continues
to increase at the current rate, it is likely to reach 1.5 °C between 2030 and 2052
(high confidence) and small islands are projected to experience higher risks as a
consequence (IPCC 2018). In the Pacific, under the RCP4.5 scenario, sea level is
likely to increase 0.5 to 0.6 m by 2100 compared to 1986 to 2005 (Church et al. 2013).
1 Climate Change and the Pacific Islands 13

The frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones is likely to remain unchanged or

decrease according to the IPCC AR5. On the other hand, the intensity of tropical
cyclones is likely to increase with increasing temperatures and precipitation
(Christensen et al. 2013; CSIRO 2015). An increase of even 32 cm sea-level rise is
projected to have serious consequences for the continued sustainability of ecological
and social systems on low coral atolls (Pearce 2000). Wave actions, storm surges,
sea-level rise, and river flooding can damage the freshwater supply and in turn have
adverse effects on various sectors such as agriculture, tourism, public health, and
hydro-electricity production (Campbell and Barnett 2010).
Projected data for Suva, Fiji, show trends of temperature (Fig. 1.2) and rainfall
(Fig. 1.3) over the next 80 years to 2100, with the GCMs used in the ensemble mod-
elling shown in Table 1.3.
Figure 1.2 compares temperatures for two RCP scenarios and different time peri-
ods. Based on historical data, we can see that the temperature in the Pacific Island
region increased slowly from 1951 to 1975, followed by a steady increase until
2010. Observed temperature (1979–2010) was also consistent with this trend. The
mean historical temperature data derived from GCMs shows a warming of 0.58 °C
within the period 1950 to 2010. In the period from 1979 to 2010, the observed aver-
age surface temperature increased by 0.14 °C. Observed data confirms that the aver-
age temperature of Suva, Fiji, rose by 0.05 °C per decade since 1979. The projected
mean surface temperature change for 2050 relative to 2010 under RCP4.5 is 0.7 °C,
while it is 0.84 °C under RCP8.5. The temperature change for 2100 relative to 2010
is projected to be 1.19 °C and 2.9 °C for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively.
Temperature increase for the projected period becomes quite prominent under both

Fig. 1.2 Observed (1979–2010) and projected (until 2100) temperature for Suva, Fiji, under an
ensemble of 30 GCMs (Table 1.3). Data for the projections of temperature and rainfall was
obtained from the Climate Data Factory website (The Climate Data Factory 2019 ) <https://thecli-
matedatafactory.com/> for the period of 1951 to 2100. Different numbers of Global Climate
Models (GCMs) obtained from the official IPCC data portal (ESGF 2009) (ESGF <https://esgf.
llnl.gov/>) were used to project climate data
14 L. Kumar et al.

Fig. 1.3 Observed (1979–2010) and projected (until 2100) rainfall for Suva, Fiji, under an ensemble
of 31 GCMs (Table 1.3)

RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 towards the end of the century. The difference in terms of
temperature values between the RCPs will begin to expand after 2025 (Fig. 1.2).
Suva is already experiencing an increased temperature regime that is evident
from the observed temperature which is 0.12 °C (median value) higher than the
historical period (1951–2010) (Fig. 1.4). By the end of the twenty-first century,
under the business-as-usual scenario (no mitigation, RCP8.5), the temperature will
increase by 2.59 °C. Even if the mitigation strategies are implemented successfully
(RCP4.5), a 1.33 °C increase in temperature will take place compared to the median
value of the observed period. Not only does the temperature increase, but also the
inter-annual variance increases in the latter half of the century under both the RCPs
(see the confidence intervals on the right of Fig. 1.2). This implies that many hot
spells will dominate in the future and, in extreme cases, the annual mean tempera-
ture can go even higher than 28 °C, while it was below 24.5 °C during the observed
period. However, if mitigation policies are properly implemented as assumed by the
RCP4.5 scenario, the temperature is likely to stabilize after 2071, with a median
value of 25.6 °C.
Suva receives an annual rainfall of around 2800 mm (median = 2846 mm for
1979–2010 period), and the projections show that rainfall will generally remain
similar by 2100 under both selected RCPs (Fig. 1.3). The difference between the
radiative forcing of RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 (IPCC 2014) will cause only about 10 mm
difference in median values of rainfall during 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for Suva.
In the projected period, the average rainfall under RCP8.5 will be slightly higher
than that for RCP4.5; rainfall anomalies (inter-annual variability) will also be
­considerably higher. This may result in more pronounced wetter and drier seasons
in the future, which will have implications for flooding and drought.
Over recent decades, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics
have changed quite sharply, even in the absence of obvious external forcing
1 Climate Change and the Pacific Islands 15

Table 1.3 Models used for projection of rainfall and temperature data
Temperature Temperature
S. No. Rainfall RCP8.5 RCP8.5 Rainfall RCP4.5 RCP4.5
1 ACCESS1.0 ACCESS1.0 ACCESS1.0 ACCESS1.0
2 ACCESS1.3 ACCESS1.3 ACCESS1.3 ACCESS1.3
3 bcc.csm1.1.m bcc.csm1.1.m bcc.csm1.1.m bcc.csm1.1.m
4 BNU.ESM BNU.ESM BNU.ESM BNU.ESM
5 CanESM2 CanESM2 CESM1.BGC CCSM4
6 CCSM4 CCSM4 CESM1.CAM5 CESM1.BGC
7 CESM1.BGC CESM1.BGC CMCC.CM CESM1.CAM5
8 CESM1.CAM5 CESM1.CAM5 CNRM.CM5 CMCC.CM
9 CMCC.CESM CMCC.CESM EC.EARTH CNRM.CM5
10 CMCC.CM CMCC.CM GFDL.CM3 EC.EARTH
11 CMCC.CMS CMCC.CMS GFDL.ESM2G GFDL.CM3
12 CNRM.CM5 CNRM.CM5 GFDL.ESM2M GFDL.ESM2G
13 EC.EARTH EC.EARTH HadGEM2.CC GFDL.ESM2M
14 FGOALS.g2 GFDL.CM3 HadGEM2.ES HadGEM2.CC
15 GFDL.CM3 GFDL.ESM2G inmcm4 inmcm4
16 GFDL.ESM2G GFDL.ESM2M IPSL.CM5A.MR IPSL.CM5A.MR
17 GFDL.ESM2M HadGEM2.CC IPSL.CM5B.LR IPSL.CM5B.LR
18 HadGEM2.CC HadGEM2.ES MIROC.ESM MIROC.ESM
19 HadGEM2.ES inmcm4 MIROC.ESM. MIROC.ESM.
CHEM CHEM
20 inmcm4 IPSL.CM5A.MR MIROC5 MIROC5
21 IPSL.CM5A.MR IPSL.CM5B.LR MPI.ESM.LR MPI.ESM.LR
22 IPSL.CM5B.LR MIROC.ESM MPI.ESM.LR.1 MPI.ESM.LR.1
23 MIROC.ESM MIROC.ESM. MPI.ESM.MR MPI.ESM.MR
CHEM
24 MIROC.ESM. MIROC5 MRI.CGCM3 MRI.CGCM3
CHEM
25 MIROC5 MPI.ESM.LR
26 MPI.ESM.LR MPI.ESM.LR.1
27 MPI.ESM.LR.1 MPI.ESM.MR
28 MPI.ESM.MR MRI.CGCM3
29 MRI.CGCM3 MRI.ESM1
30 MRI.ESM1 NorESM1.M
31 NorESM1.M
The GCM data were downscaled and bias-corrected using cumulative distribution function trans-
form (CDF-t) method embedded in the CDFt() function of R (Michelangeli et al. 2009). Two pack-
ages of R, namely, tidyverse (Wickham 2018) and grid (R Core Team 2019), were used for
processing and visualization of the data

(Cobb et al. 2003). Therefore, it is also appropriate to expect similar abrupt changes
in climate variability of the tropical Pacific region in the future, with or without a trig-
ger from ongoing greenhouse forcing (Kleypas et al. 2015). However, under the
RCP8.5 scenario, the equatorial Pacific is likely to experience an increase in mean
16 L. Kumar et al.

Fig. 1.4 Observed time series of annual total number of warm days (red) and cool nights (blue)
for Suva, Fiji, indicating a general warming trend. Grey bands around the linear regression line
show one standard error of the estimate (Data: Fiji Meteorological Service)

annual precipitation by 2100 (IPCC 2018). The South Pacific is projected to experi-
ence changes in precipitation, relative to 1961–1990, ranging from −3.9% to 3.4%
by 2020, −8.23% to 6.7% by 2050, and −14% to 14.6% by 2080 (Barnett 2011).
The changing climate will have impacts across the landscape that will be vari-
able. For example, the rising sea levels and changes in currents will result in signifi-
cant wave height changes that will affect different regions differently (Fig. 1.5).
Mean significant wave height (Hs) data obtained from the South Pacific Applied
Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) was modelled using two concentration path-
ways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Phase 5 (CMIP5) model (http://wacop.gsd.spc.int/) (WACOP 2016). The GCMs
used were CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, INMCM4, and ACCESS1.0. An average
value was obtained for 2081–2100 by using the above models, and the difference
between the projected and the historical scenario (1986–2005) was derived for pro-
jected changes in Hs. From Fig. 1.5, it can be observed that there is likely to be
considerable variability in changes in Hs across the Pacific, with Hs differences of up
to 0.4 m seen by 2081–2100. The highest increase in Hs will be experienced in the
north-west Pacific around Palau and Northern Mariana Islands as well as in the
south around Tonga and Niue. Several regions in the Central Pacific are projected to
experience no changes in Hs. This projected data for Hs shows that the impacts of
climate change will be highly variable across the Pacific region, with some areas
being impacted considerably more than others.
Anthropogenic CO2 has caused a decrease of 0.06 pH units in the tropical Pacific
since the beginning of the industrial era (Howes et al. 2018). Currently, the pH of
the tropical Pacific Ocean is decreasing at a rate of 0.02 units per decade, and it is
projected to decrease by 0.15 units relative to 1986–2005 by 2050 (Hoegh-Guldberg
et al. 2014). In addition, the CMIP5 ensemble model projects a further decrease of
1 Climate Change and the Pacific Islands 17

150°0'0"E 180°0'0" 150°0'0"W 120°0'0"W

30°0'0"N

a 40 cm

0
0°0'0"

0°0'0"
0 1,000 km

150°0'0"E 180°0'0" 150°0'0"W 120°0'0"W

150°0'0"E 180°0'0" 150°0'0"W 120°0'0"W

30°0'0"N

b 40 cm

0
0°0'0"

0°0'0"

0 1,000 km

150°0'0"E 180°0'0" 150°0'0"W 120°0'0"W

Fig. 1.5 Projected differences in Hs values under RCP4.5 (a) and RCP8.5 (b) for 2081–2100
compared to historical scenario of 1986–2005 under CMIP5 and an ensemble of GCMs
(CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, INMCM4, and ACCESS1.0). Maximum Hs values were calculated
from modelled monthly data supplied by SOPAC (http://wacop.gsd.spc.int/)

0.23–0.28 pH units relative to 1986 to 2005 by 2100 (Howes et al. 2018). This
declining seawater pH level corresponds to a decrease in concentration of dissolved
carbonate ions (CO32−) which may lead to a ‘saturation state’, lowering the potential
of CaCO3 precipitation. According to IPCC AR5, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the
aragonite saturation states in the subtropical gyre region will continuously decrease
to around 800 ppm by 2100, which will intensify the calcification process with
detrimental effects for many shallow-water organisms (Hoegh-Guldberg 2014).
18 L. Kumar et al.

This phenomenon is anticipated to affect the biological and physical complexity of

corals; coral cover is projected to decline from the current maximum of 40% to 15
to 30% by 2035 and 10% to 20% by 2050, primarily due to the acidification of the
ocean and increasing sea surface temperature (Bruno and Selig 2007; Hoegh-­
Guldberg 2014). This will also negatively affect the ability of corals to compete
with microalgae for space; hence, microalgae are likely to smother a significant
proportion of corals by 2035. This pressure on coral reefs will also affect the repro-
duction of coral reef fish species, numbers of which are projected to decrease 20%
by 2050 (Bell et al. 2013).
Climate change will have detrimental impacts on human health directly and indi-
rectly in almost all the regions of the world. Pacific Island countries are particularly
vulnerable to health impacts from changing climate due to their unique geologic,
social, and economic characteristics (Hanna and McIver 2014; Woodward et al.
2000). Comparatively small size and isolation, their tropical locations, often stag-
nant economies, and limited health infrastructure are some of the reasons. The
direct impacts include damages to health infrastructure, deaths, and traumatic inju-
ries occurring during extreme hydro-meteorological events and physiological
effects from heatwaves. For example, in 2015, Cyclone Pam caused severe damages
to the health-care system of Vanuatu, destroying 21 of 24 health facilities (hospitals,
health centres, and dispensaries) across 22 affected islands in the most affected
province (Esler 2015). Indirect impacts occur from the disruption of existing eco-
systems, including increased geographic ranges of vectors and increased pathogen
loads in food and water (McIver et al. 2012). For example, with the prevailing severe
water shortage issue, the changing climate is likely to worsen the diarrheal disease
in many Pacific Island countries (Singh et al. 2001). A strong positive correlation
was identified between the extreme weather events and outbreaks of dengue fever
and diarrhoeal disease in Fiji (McIver et al. 2012). Another foodborne disease of
concern is ciguatera, a toxidrome believed to be caused by a toxic dinoflagellate-­
contaminated reef fish (WHO 2015). Increased incidents of ciguatera in the Pacific
Island countries have been reported over the past two decades (Skinner et al. 2011).
The ciguatera incidence was linked with marine surface temperatures and ENSO
cycles (Llewellyn 2010; Skinner et al. 2011). In addition, the sensitive zones of vec-
tors transmitting pathogens may expand with increases in temperature and altera-
tions in precipitation and humidity (Hanna and McIver 2014).
The biodiversity of Pacific Island regions is also facing pressure from global
climate change. Three of 35 global biodiversity hotspots are located in the Pacific
Island region, enriched with large numbers of endemic species. The limited amount
of suitable habitat and limited capacity for rapid adaptation of small islands make
the consequences of accelerating climate change likely to be severe for the region’s
biodiversity (Taylor and Kumar 2016). Sea-level rise poses a major threat to the
restricted species ranges on smaller and atoll islands. In addition, high-elevation
ecosystems such as cloud montane forests are projected to disappear by the end of
this century (Taylor and Kumar 2016). In an assessment of 23 countries in the
Pacific, Kumar and Tehrany (2017) showed that 674 of the islands hosted at least 1
1 Climate Change and the Pacific Islands 19

terrestrial vertebrate species that was either vulnerable, endangered, or critically

endangered. A total of 84 terrestrial vertebrate species are endemic to this region,
and many of them occupy one island only, increasing their chances of extinction.
Climate change is one of the major threats to the culture and traditions of indig-
enous communities of Pacific Island countries (Keener 2013). A community’s
response to every dimension of climate change including understanding the causes
and responses is mediated by culture (Adger 2006). Nowhere has culture already
been threatened by climate change than in the small island states of the Pacific
Island region, a trend likely to continue for some time (Ede 2003; Funk 2009;
Hunter 2002; Patel 2006). Indigenous people of such islands whose culture is intri-
cately connected to their ancestral lands will experience significant cultural disrup-
tion (Farbotko and McGregor 2010). For example, in Samoan culture, the place
where families and forebears lived plays an important role in their culture and per-
sonal identity; yet increasing numbers of islanders are moving inland or to other
countries in search of a more secure future, while some are determined to hold their
ground (Piggott-McKellar et al. 2019). In this context, relocations and resettlements
have been significantly affecting the state of Samoan culture in terms of loss of heri-
tage and sense of being cut off from the ancestral communities left behind. For
instance, the personal connection to the sea has subsequently been lost by those who
moved inland or offshore where fishing is no longer their primary source of food
(Wing 2017). Such impacts on culture and traditions will be more likely in the
future with the accelerating pace of climate change.

1.6 Economic Impacts in the Pacific

Island economies face significant costs due to climate change. According to a recent
study by the Asian Development Bank (2013), it is estimated that under the
‘business-­as-usual scenario’, climate change could cost 2.2 to 3.5% of the annual
GDP of Pacific Island countries by 2050 and 12.7% by 2100. The agriculture sector
was identified as one of the most vulnerable sectors, contributing 5.4% of annual
GDP loss by 2100 under the high emission scenario. Agriculture is likely to be
affected in various ways, including loss of arable land and contamination of fresh-
water. For example, in Fiji in 2003, Cyclone Ami caused damage to crops to the
value of US$ 35 million (McKenzie et al. 2005), while severe flooding occurred in
the Wainbuka and Rewa Rivers in 2004, destroying 50–70% of crops (Connell and
Lowitt 2019). The World Bank estimates that climate change may cost Tarawa atoll
in Kiribati USD 8–16 million, equivalent to 17–34% of current GDP, by 2050
(World Bank 2017).
Regardless of their size and population, the major socio-economic reality regard-
ing small island countries of the Pacific is that their cost of adapting to climate
change is significantly higher in terms of GDP than for larger countries, a phenom-
enon referred to as ‘indivisibility’ in economics. For example, for the construction
20 L. Kumar et al.

of a similar coastal protection structure, the unit cost per capita in small island
countries is substantially higher than for bigger countries with larger populations. In
addition, compared to larger or continental territories, the relative impact of a
coastal hazard or extreme event has a disproportionate impact on small island coun-
tries’ GDP compared to continental or larger territories where it only affects a small
portion of its total land mass (Pachauri et al. 2014). According to the World Bank
Climate Vulnerability Assessment Report of Fiji (World Bank 2017), the country’s
economic growth has been relatively slow in the last couple of decades because of
the impacts of climate change. Fiji is particularly vulnerable to floods and tropical
cyclones which have already made a significant impact on the economy. Tropical
Cyclone Winston in 2016, with the strongest winds ever recorded in the southern
hemisphere, caused damages costing F$2 billion (USD 0.95 billion), equivalent to
20% of Fiji’s GDP. During this event, the average losses of assets due to the tropical
cyclones and floods alone are estimated at more than F$500 million (USD 230
million).
Tourism is one of the fastest growing sectors in the world. The tourism sector is
a common industry in almost all Pacific Island countries and a major source of
employment and foreign exchange, contributing an average 20% of GDP and 15%
of total jobs (ESCAP 2010). It is also considered as crucial to poverty alleviation
and a pathway for achieving economic security coupled with broader development
goals around employment and infrastructure (Everett et al. 2018). Climate change
has a profound and negative impact on tourism by reducing the value of attractive-
ness of the tourism destinations (Becken and Hay 2012). Sea-level rise and storm
surges pose threats to coastal assets and infrastructure. Kumar and Taylor (2015)
have shown that 57% of all infrastructure in 12 Pacific Island countries are within
500 m of the coast, with 20% being within 100 m. This exposes a very large propor-
tion of national infrastructure in these island countries to coastal climate change
impacts.
Oceans are intrinsically linked with the atmosphere as they absorb more than
90% of the surplus heat produced by global warming and about two-thirds of CO2
emitted through anthropogenic activities (Rhein et al. 2013). This affects both the
ocean dynamics and ecosystems and consequently has a major impact on the
resources they provide to the community (Pörtner et al. 2014). In the Pacific Island
countries, fishing and aquaculture contribute substantially to economic develop-
ment, government revenues, food security, and livelihoods. Climate change impacts
on oceans are expected to have major effects on the distribution of fish habitats, the
food webs, the fish stocks they support, and, as a consequence, the productivity of
fisheries. For example, the combined impacts of increasing temperature, sea-level
rise, and alteration of mixing the ocean layer thickness will affect the nutrient sup-
ply, lagoon flushing, and ocean acidity and will ultimately affect plankton produc-
tivity and survival of corals (FAO 2008; Lal 2004). Stormy weather and more
intense cyclones can also make fishing trips unsafe and less productive. This will
most likely affect the fish supply, deprive fishermen of income, and potentially
threaten the economic security of some island communities (FAO 2008).
1 Climate Change and the Pacific Islands 21

1.7 Migration and Displacement Due to Climate Change

Change in the climate system will significantly affect small islands, with severe
impacts projected for local economies and livelihoods of people, resulting in human
mobility and cross-border displacement and migration (Perch-Nielsen et al. 2008).
In certain contexts, particularly in low-lying coastal areas, climate change can be a
driving factor in human mobility. Significant migrations from rural atolls to coastal
towns and cities or to larger islands have taken place over the past decades in the
Pacific Island region (Campbell and Warrick 2014). This has a negative impact on
resources in urban coastal areas, and climate change is expected to exacerbate these
pressures. In this context, one adaptive strategy for climate change is international
migration, especially for the island population who lose livelihood opportunities or
whose land disappears or who have limited land. As opportunities and resources
diminish, freedom and attraction of movement to other countries or larger islands
increase. This, in turn, encourages international migration for those with sufficient
resources to move abroad. Therefore, essentially, climate change and rural hard-
ships may encourage people to seek economic opportunities in other countries.
Many Pacific Island countries currently have large proportions of their population
living abroad; Table 1.4 shows the percentage of population abroad and the main
destinations for some Pacific Island countries. Fifty-six percent of the Pacific
Islanders who live abroad are settled in New Zealand and Australia, with almost
20,000 more Pacific migrants in the former. North America is the second most pop-
ular destination region, with 25% of Pacific immigrants, with the United States
having a much larger share than Canada. The special visa schemes for Pacific
Islanders in the United States, New Zealand, and Australia provide opportunities for

Table 1.4 Pacific Island countries and territories by share of the total population and major
destinations domiciled abroad (2015)
% total population
No. Pacific Island abroad Main destinations in order of importance
1 Guam 44.8 Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Palau
2 American Samoa 41.8 Samoa, Australia
3 Northern Mariana 39.3 Guam, Palau
Islands
4 Tokelau 39.0 New Zealand, Australia
5 Niue 34.6 New Zealand, Australia
6 Nauru 31.1 Kiribati, Australia
7 Palau 26.6 Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Federated
States of Micronesia
8 New Caledonia 24.4 French Polynesia, Australia, Wallis and Futuna
Islands
9 Wallis and Futuna 21.7 New Caledonia
Islands
10 Cook Islands 19.9 New Zealand, Australia
Adapted from DESA (2015)
22 L. Kumar et al.

temporary and sometimes permanent migration for people living in climatically

vulnerable areas (DESA 2015).
Pacific Islanders have been described as one of the world’s most mobile groups
(Ash and Campbell 2016). Global estimates of migrants relocating as a result of
rising sea levels vary. In particular, ‘disappearing’ or ‘sinking’ islands force
islanders to relocate either within their country or beyond its borders. In fear of
future climate change and natural disasters, countries such as Tuvalu, Kiribati,
Fiji, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Papua New Guinea have considered new
plans for relocations. The move is less challenging when relocation takes place
within existing customary land boundaries. However, if relocations occur outside
of land boundaries, then the relevant government bodies need to be consulted in
order to avoid any conflicts (Ash and Campbell 2016). Kiribati’s government has
purchased land in Vanua Levu, Fiji, with speculation that ultimately this land will
be used to relocate Kiribati to Fiji. However, the Government of Kiribati’s state-
ments have tended to focus on the potential of the land for agriculture (Hermann
and Kempf 2017). Forced displacement from climate change is highly disruptive
to livelihoods, culture, and society unless proper and well-planned interventions
support people to adapt to the challenges (Gharbaoui and Blocher 2016; Piggott-
McKellar et al. 2019).
Some Pacific Island countries have agreements with Australia, New Zealand, and
the United States which already host large groups of immigrants from these coun-
tries. Yet, many of those countries with the greatest migration pressures, including
Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Nauru, have the fewest available international destinations
(Doherty and Roy 2017). Relocation due to climate change has many economic,
social, cultural, and psychological costs, although economic and social reasons may
be the primary reasons for migration.

1.8  daptation, Adaptive Capacity, and Lack of Information

A
and Information Communication Infrastructure

Improving the adaptive capacity of communities in the Pacific Islands is one way to
reduce vulnerability. Adaptive capacity is conventionally assumed to be based on
the extent to which people can access, understand, and use new knowledge to inform
their decision-making processes. This is true in some sense – the pace and nature of
current/future climate change is unprecedented – yet much of this knowledge was
generated outside the Pacific Island region and is therefore perceived by many peo-
ple within the region as ‘alien’, even reflecting a foreign preoccupation that applies
to others not to ‘us’ (Nunn 2009). This is one of the reasons for the widespread and
conspicuous failure of most external interventions for climate change adaptation in
the Pacific Islands over the past 30–40 years (Piggott-McKellar et al. 2019). It is not
that the adaptive capacity of people in the Pacific Island region is low; it is rather
1 Climate Change and the Pacific Islands 23

that the adaptation pathways they are being offered are unfamiliar and underpinned
by unfamiliar reasoning.
Yet to have survived on often quite remote islands in the Pacific for three millen-
nia or more, it is clear that Pacific Island people must have evolved effective ways
of coping with climate extremes, be these short-onset events or longer-term periods
of changed climate (McNeill 1994; Nunn 2007). Evidence for the former abounds.
In several Pacific Island societies, it has been demonstrated that there were methods
for ensuring food security in the aftermath of tropical cyclones as well as ways of
identifying their precursors (Johnston 2015; Lee and Dong 2012). It is also clear
that Pacific Island people survived longer-term climate changes such as the AD
1300 event by changing livelihood strategies (Nunn 2007). In today’s globalized
world, it is easy for people, especially those outside the Pacific region, to make
assumptions about vulnerability and need in an era of rapidly changing climate and
to overlook traditional coping strategies. Recently there have been many calls for
the renewal and revitalization of such strategies, at least in combination with global
knowledge, to help Pacific people cope with the future (Mercer et al. 2007; Nunn
and Kumar 2018).
Another reason for adaptation failure that comes as a surprise to many outsiders
is that the adaptive solutions being offered to Pacific Island people are invariably
secular in nature. These are in conflict with the deeply held religious beliefs through
which many decisions, especially around environmental governance, are filtered in
Pacific Island communities (Nunn et al. 2016b). Unless adaptation pathways are
developed that acknowledge people’s spiritual beliefs, it seems unlikely that exter-
nal interventions for climate change adaptation can become either effective or sus-
tainable in most instances.
In terms of raising awareness about climate change, education is key; yet, public
media reports, which often focus on extreme scenarios, are often more persuasive in
a Pacific Island context. Many Pacific Island school students are gaining education
regarding climate change through school curricula and are experiencing anxiety and
frustration at their elders’ lack of awareness and foresight (Scott-Parker and Kumar
2018). It seems clear that the localization of climate change awareness and knowl-
edge is key to effective anticipatory adaptation in many Pacific Island contexts.
Telecommunications can help ease the isolation experienced by many of the
more remote islands and provide significant access to health care, education, and
government services. Unfortunately, due to the remoteness and isolation of the
islands in the Pacific, these regions face problems such as lack of access to trans-
port, communications, basic services, and economic opportunities (Dornan and
Newton Cain 2014). Pacific Island countries have some of the lowest ICT penetra-
tion rates in the world in terms of Internet and mobile phone connectivity. Bandwidth
is therefore limited and prices for broadband are high (Cave 2012). Significant prog-
ress has been made in recent years in improving telecommunications services in the
Pacific Islands. Mobile technology has flourished in this environment. By 2013, one
in three residents in Fiji, Tonga, and Tuvalu had access to the Internet (Firth 2018).
Mobile phone technology advances were clearly a factor in providing remote areas
24 L. Kumar et al.

with Internet access. Fiji has shown significant growth in Internet access and mobile
telephone services. The geographic location, service culture, pro-business policies,
English-speaking population, and well-connected e-society have supported this
trend. Fiji has a relatively reliable and efficient telecommunications system with
access to the Southern Cross submarine cable linking New Zealand, Australia, and
North America relative to many other South Pacific islands.
Without timely and relevant information, developing Pacific Island states will
find it difficult to monitor their progress towards sustainable development. A mature
ICT infrastructure is critical for enhancing scientific research, upgrading the tech-
nological capabilities of industrial sectors, and encouraging innovation. Research
and development expenditure as a proportion of GDP and researchers (in full-time
equivalent) per million inhabitants are the two indicators chosen by the United
Nations to measure progress (UNESCO 2015). Fiji is the only developing country
in the South Pacific with recent data on research and development gross domestic
expenditure (GERD). In 2012, the National Statistics Bureau cites a GERD/GDP
ratio of 0.15%. Research and development in the private sector are insignificant,
while government investment between 2007 and 2012 tended to favour agriculture.

1.9 Conclusions

Climate change has been identified as one of this century’s critical challenges for
the Pacific region as a whole. The unique vulnerability of the Pacific Island coun-
tries to climate change is determined by their geography and environment, frailty of
their economic structures, and demographics as well as the interactions between
these factors. The vulnerability to climate change in the Pacific Islands is multidi-
mensional and inextricably linked to broader challenges of development. Key
impacts include damage to coastal systems, settlements, and infrastructure, under-
mining recent economic developments, ameliorating existing challenges to water
and food security, increasing human health threats, and degrading regional biodiver-
sity (Barnett 2001; Keener 2013). Climate change threatens prosperity and the via-
bility of Pacific Island countries. If the world does not respond effectively to rising
greenhouse gas emissions, significant additional stress will be placed on coastal
communities, natural ecosystems, water and food security, and the health of island-
ers in the Pacific. In the face of often menacing climatic conditions, the people of
the Pacific have a long history of resilience, and the nations and communities of the
Pacific are now actively responding to the new challenges of climate change. With
Pacific Island leaders already implementing adaptation measures and looking at
relocation options for their climate refugees, islanders will have a better chance of
survival if the global warming is limited to a 1.5 °C temperature rise (McNamara
and Gibson 2009). The Paris Agreement of the United Nations has committed the
world to ‘net zero’ global greenhouse gas emissions, and it is imperative that this is
followed through for the long-term survival of many Pacific Island nations.
1 Climate Change and the Pacific Islands 25

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