20th December 2023

Wednesday

DAILY
GLOBAL MARKET
OVERVIEW REPORT

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 DOLLAR INDEX

VIX

DXY: The dollar index holds around 102.2, following a 0.4% decline in the previous session. The US Dollar started
consolidating in the Asian session on Wednesday, after a marginal decline on Tuesday after weak US Building Permits Data
was released. The index on Wednesday is trending directionless in a choppy manner. On the other hand, sticky inflation in
the Euro Zone raises the probability of further rate hikes, which has negatively impacted dollar prices. Francois Villeroy de
Galhau of France suggested a rate cut in the coming year to achieve 2% inflation by 2025 at the latest. In contrast, Greece's
Yannis Stournaras advocated keeping inflation below 3% by mid-next year before reducing borrowing costs. Investors now
look ahead to the Fed-preferred core PCE price index due later this week for further guidance.

VIX: VIX is trading at 12.92 while writing the report. The VIX is up 0.95% as compared to the close of the previous trading
session, which was at 12.80. On Wednesday, important economic data including CB Consumer Confidence and Existing
Home Sales data is expected to have a considerable impact on the volatility index. Also, investors are eagerly anticipating
Friday’s PCE report to gauge the inflation level in USA.

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 MAJOR DATA AND EVENT

FOR WEDNESDAY, 20/12/2023

Time Currency Data/Event Forecast Previous

19:00 USD Current Account (Q3) -197.0B -212.1B

19:30 EUR ECB's Lane Speaks

20:30 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Dec) 103.8 102.0

20:30 USD Existing Home Sales (Nov) 3.78M 3.79M

21:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories -4.259M

23:30 USD 20-Year Bond Auction 4.780%

 MARKET
HEADLINES
01
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT

Gold and Stock market surges with weak US dollar

upon dovish fed outlook

SUMMARY: The Fed gives a dovish rate outlook in a recent

Fed meet and signals rate cuts earlier in 2024. As a result,
the US stock market as identified by S&P 500 closed higher
on Tuesday and now has a record high. Also, gold seems to
be gaining ground driven by weak dollar.

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: US Housing Starts surged

14.8% in November, and Building Permits declined 2.5% as
per the monthly data published by the US Census Bureau
revealed on Tuesday.

EXPERT OPINION: "The proverbial genie is out of the bottle

now, and the Fed either has to accept that and risk easing
policy prematurely or push back very hard and cause a bit of
volatility in the markets," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial
market analyst at Capital.com.

MAJOR EVENTS: Israel keeps pounding Gaza, Houthis vow

more Red Sea attacks

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 FOREX
OUTLOOK
02
FOREX
Soft UK inflation weighs on Pound Sterling, focus shifts
to US data

SUMMARY: The US Dollar extended its decline against other

currencies on Tuesday as global bond yields retreated after the
Bank of Japan's decision to keep its policy unchanged. Later in the
day, the US economic docket will feature the Conference Board's
Consumer Confidence Index for December and Existing Home Sales
data for November.

NEWS IMPACT: USD/CAD experienced a sharp decline, reaching its

lowest level since early August below 1.3350 on Tuesday. Statistics
Canada's data revealed that the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI)
rose to 3.1% in November, surpassing market expectations of 2.9%
and matching the October reading. On Wednesday, the pair remains
in a consolidation phase, trading within a narrow channel around
1.3350.

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT: Hawkish remarks from European

Central Bank (ECB) officials supported the Euro, leading to gains for
EUR/USD on Tuesday. The pair approached the 1.1000 level before
retracing slightly to around 1.0950 in early trading on Wednesday.

EXPERT OPINIONS: In the later part of the day, the US economic

calendar will include Conference Board's Consumer Confidence
Index for December and Existing Home Sales data for November,”
said Eren Sengezer of FXStreet

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 EURUSD

Technical Summary: EUR/USD is retracing towards 1.0950 in early European trading on Wednesday. The US
Dollar is making a modest rebound as investors exercise caution following a series of less dovish statements from
Federal Reserve officials. The Euro is finding support from recent hawkish commentary from the European Central
Bank (ECB). According to technical chart, it is trading in the positive territory and can continue follow the same
bullish trend in the upcoming session. The resistance for the counter is 1.1000 and on the other hand, 1.0850 and
1.0800 are key support levels for the pair.
Descriptive Analysis: EUR/USD pair is in bullish mode after made a low of 1.0750 in the previous correction. It
may continue up to the level of 1.1000 in the near term as the bullish crossover appear on its 4H chart. The Euro
faces a relevant resistance area around 1.0970, and a breakout above that level would open the doors potentially
towards 1.1000.

Data-related Projection: There is GfK German Consumer Climate (Jan) data today that is going to significantly
impact on this pair. If data is greater than expectation is positive for EURUSD pair.
Indicator Interpretation: The prices are currently trending near 1.0950 and hovering above the short- and long-
term moving average, signaling positive movement in the pair.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Trigger Points: There is GfK German Consumer Climate (Jan) data today that is going to significantly impact on this
pair, if data is less than expectation is bearish for EURUSD pair.
Technical Confirmation: If EURUSD successfully crosses below 1.0800 and short-term MA cross the long-term MA
from above to below, then the above-given triggers will confirm down till 1.0700 in the currency pair.

Facts & Figures: The euro is, by far, the largest component of the dollar index, making up 57.6% of the basket.

Daily Pivot: 1.1000 (CMP is 1.0950 which is trading below the pivot levels while writing this report.)

Bullish Setup: Bearish Setup:

A buy position can be taken after the R1 level A short position can be taken on the S1 breakdown
breakout.

R1 R2 S1 S2
1.1000 1.1050 1.0900 1.0850
 USDCAD
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Technical Summary: The USD/CAD pair experienced a modest rebound from its lowest level since August 4, reaching
around the 1.3330 area during the Asian session on Wednesday. This recovery comes after the pair faced losses
influenced by Canadian CPI data on the previous day. It may continue to follow the same bearish trend in the upcoming
session if it falls below $1.3350. A key resistance level to watch is 1.3400, considered significant in the near term. A
decisive break below 1.3350 could open the door to further down, potentially reaching 1.3300.
Descriptive Analysis: The USD/CAD pair is losing in the Asian trading session; the pair is currently trading at 1.3350
with a small gain for the day. According to the 4H chart, there is potential for a downward move if it breaches below
1.3350. The resistance for the counter is expected to be around 1.3400 in the future.

Data-related Projection: There are US Existing Home Sales (Nov) and CB Consumer Confidence (Dec) data today that is
going to significantly impact the pair today. If data comes less than expectation, then it will be a negative sign for the pair.
Indicator Interpretation: The prices are currently trending near 1.3370 and hovering near the negative moving average
crossover, signaling downward momentum in the pair.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Trigger Points: There are US Existing Home Sales (Nov) and CB Consumer Confidence (Dec) data today that are going to
significantly impact the pair today. If data comes greater than expectation, then it will support USDCAD Pair.
Technical Confirmation: On the flip side, the USD/CAD pair could meet the resistance near the major level at 1.3600, A
firm break above the level could open the doors for the pair to positive the region around the psychological level at
1.3700.

Facts & figures: Pound sterling is one of the oldest currencies still in use today. The Pound is also the 4th most traded
currency in the FX markets. Average trading volumes sit at about USD 330 billion.

Daily Pivot: 1.3400 (CMP is 1.3350 which is trading below the pivot while writing this report.)

Bullish Setup: Bearish Setup:

Long position can be taken above R1 Short position can be taken below S1
 COMEX
OUTLOOK
 03
GOLD
Gold Holds Steady Near Two-Week Highs Amidst
Mixed Fed Signals

SUMMARY: Gold maintained its position around $2,040 per

ounce on Wednesday, remaining close to its highest levels in
over two weeks. Gold price is pausing around $2,040 early
Wednesday after reaching multi-day highs at $2,048 on
Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) is showing weakness
alongside US Treasury bond yields, providing support to
gold buyers.

NEWS IMPACT: The ongoing global risk-on sentiment,

driven by expectations of lower interest rates in the US,
additional stimulus from China, and a dovish stance from the
Bank of Japan, is suppressing the safe-haven appeal of gold.

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT: Gold prices are being

supported by the increasing acknowledgment that the
Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to shift away from its
hawkish stance early next year, providing a positive factor
for the precious metal.

EXPERT OPINIONS: “Traders are awaiting the US Consumer

Confidence Index for direction on Wednesday, with a keen
focus on the release of the US PCE Price Index on Friday,“
said Haresh Menghani of Investing.com

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 GOLD

Technical Summary: Gold price (XAU/USD) is currently in a bullish consolidation phase, trading in a narrow range just
below the weekly high established the previous day. This comes amid efforts by several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to
temper market expectations for early interest rate cuts in 2024. Apart from this an Inverse H&S Pattern formed on its 4H
chart. It may continue follow the same bullish trend, if it crosses $2040 in the upcoming session. A breakthrough at $2040
may indicate a potential upside toward $2050. Support is expected in the range of $2020 to $2000 on the downside.
Descriptive Analysis: Gold price hovered near $2040 during the early European session on Wednesday. our analysis
suggests a bullish trend on its 4H chart as it formed H&S pattern. According to this analysis, a potential upward movement
is anticipated as long as gold crosses 2040 level. We have identified support $2020, with a further support level at $2000.

Data Related Projection: There is US Existing Home Sales (Nov) and CB Consumer Confidence (Dec) data today that is
going to significantly impact gold prices today. If data is greater than expectation support USD and negative for the gold
price.
Indicator Interpretation: Gold prices are trading above their short-term and medium-term moving average crossover
indicating that there is bullish trend in the gold price.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Trigger Points: There is US Existing Home Sales (Nov) and CB Consumer Confidence (Dec) data today that is going to
significantly impact gold prices today. If data is less than expectation support gold price.
Technical Confirmation: If XAUUSD consolidates below $2000 level and the short-term moving average (8DMA) crosses
the long-term moving average (40DMA) from above to below then a bearish move is possible for gold in the near future.

Facts & figures: The US Federal Reserve holds 6,700 tonnes of gold, in 530,000 gold bars. At its peak in 1973, the Fed
stored more than 12,000 tonnes of monetary gold.

Daily Pivot: 2040 (CMP is $2038, which is trading below the pivot while writing this report.)

Bullish Setup: Bearish Setup:

Buy position can be taken after the R1 breach with TP Sell entry can be taken after the breach S1 levels. TP could
below R2 and SL below S1. be taken around S2 and SL above the Pivot point.

R1 R2 S1 S2

2040 2050 2020 2000

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04
CRUDE Oil
Tightrope of Stability: Oil Holds Steady Amid Red
Sea Tensions and U.S. Supply Focus

SUMMARY: Oil prices held steady on Wednesday amidst

concerns over Red Sea tensions following recent Houthi attacks.
Investors remain watchful, assessing potential impacts on global
oil supply routes and acknowledging the heightened geopolitical
risks in the energy market.

LATEST NEWS IMPACT: Brent crude futures saw a marginal

0.1% decline, dropping by 8 cents to $79.15 per barrel as of
0507 GMT. Concurrently, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude
remained unchanged, holding steady at $73.94 per barrel.

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: On Tuesday, Washington

established a task force to protect Red Sea commerce amid
Yemeni militant attacks. Major shipping companies rerouted
their vessels, sparking concerns of potential sustained
disruptions to global trade.

OPINIONS: About 12% of global shipping uses the Red Sea and
Suez Canal, but the impact on oil supply is minimal. Analysts
highlight that the majority of Middle East crude relies on the
Strait of Hormuz for export.

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 CRUDE OIL

Technical Summary: WTI faces a slight dip with the US Dollar clawing back recent losses. The US establishes a task
force to safeguard Red Sea shipping. Anticipated surge in US oil production may outpace global demand in 2024. On
the 4-hour chart, buyers could take control, eyeing a breakthrough past the $74.50 resistance level.
Descriptive Analysis: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) retreats after a two-day rally, hovering around $74.00 per
barrel in the Asian session. Geopolitical tensions, fueled by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, provide support. On the 4-
hour chart, buyers aim to breach the $74.50 resistance, backed by solid support at $70.70. Positive indicators like
BB and EMA signal a bullish trend, emphasizing the market's sensitivity to both geopolitical disruptions and
technical dynamics.

Data Related Projection: Crude oil inventories data set to release today. A higher 'Actual' compared to 'Forecast'
is unfavorable for the currency, indicating a potential surge in crude oil prices.
Indicator Interpretation: Oil prices near middle Bollinger Band and 8-day EMA signal short-buying pressure,
implying a minor bullish trend.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
Trigger Points: Crude oil inventories set for release today. A lower 'Actual' compared to 'Forecast' is favorable for
the currency, signaling a potential decline in crude oil prices.
Technical Confirmations: If oil prices trading below middle band of BB and also traded below EMA then we can
expect some downside movement in prices.

Facts & Figures: Oil tankers can reach a colossal 650,000 tons, akin to super tankers. Typically, 330 meters long,
the largest ever built stretches to 458 meters.

Daily Pivot: $74.50 (CMP is 74.08, and prices are trading below the pivot levels while writing this report.)

Bullish Setup: Bearish Setup:

Buy position can be taken after the R1 level with Sell Stop below the S1 or taking a sell once the
TP below R2 and SL below pivot level. prices face rejection from the R1 level.

Bullish Setup: Bearish Setup:

R1 R2 S1 S2
74.50 76.00 70.75 69.00

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 CRYPTOS
OUTLOOK

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05
Crypto
Bitcoin's Rock-Solid Stand: Above $42,500 as Super-
Majority of Tokens Ride the Profit Wave

SUMMARY: Crypto market saw widespread declines, with

Polygon leading the way, dropping 3.28% to 77 cents.
Cardano fell 3.09% to 58 cents, Solana shed 2.48% to
$73.11, Polkadot declined 2.48% to $6.72, and Ethereum
dropped 1.31%.

LATEST NEWS IMPACT: Luna Classic rises 17.5% to

$0.000178, then corrects. Montenegro's Appellate Court
rules in favor of Terra founder Do Kwon, rejecting
extradition due to unclear reasons and lack of decisive
facts.

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. court approves hefty

fines in money laundering case against Binance and ex-
CEO Changpeng Zhao. $150 million for Zhao and $2.7
billion for Binance, per the U.S. Commodity Futures
Trading Commission.

OPINIONS: Renowned crypto analyst warns as Bitcoin

slips below $41,200-$42,400 supply zone. 1.87 million
addresses, holding 730,000 BTC, raise concerns.

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BTC/USDT

Technical Summary: Bitcoin maintains upward momentum, consistently above $42,000 for three days. Aim is set on
revisiting the $44,700 mark, last seen on December 8. A successful breach could propel BTC towards $48,000, as depicted in
the chart. EMA and BBA indicators align with the bullish outlook, reinforcing Bitcoin's upward trajectory.
Descriptive Analysis: Bitcoin's upward momentum continues, sustaining above $42,000 for the third consecutive day, with
an eye on revisiting $44,700, last observed on December 8. A successful breach of the resistance zone between $44,700 and
$45,300 may propel BTC towards the $48,000 level, supported by its position above the 10, 50, and 200-day Exponential
Moving Averages (EMAs). However, a daily close below $42,000 could challenge the bullish outlook for Bitcoin.

Data Related Projection: CB Consumer Confidence set for release today. If 'Actual' falls short of 'Forecast,' it's unfavorable
for the currency, potentially leading to a rise in Bitcoin prices.
Indicator Interpretation: Bitcoin is currently trading around its exponential moving average (EMA). Sustaining above this
level may signal potential short-term bullish movement.

Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: CB Consumer Confidence release today. If 'Actual' surpasses 'Forecast,' it's positive for the currency,
possibly resulting in a decline in Bitcoin prices.
Technical Confirmations: If prices trend around the middle band of the Bollinger Band indicator, traded below 8 days EMA
indicates the selling zone, then BTCUSD prices will fall.

Facts & figures: Bitcoin: $42,317.70 (BTC/USD), Market Cap: $828.37B USD, 24-hr Volume: $22.15B USD. -1.22% in the last
24 hours, Circulating Supply: 19.58M.

Daily Pivot: 43500 (CMP is 429813, & prices are trading below the pivot level while writing the report)

Bullish Setup: Bearish Setup:

Buy position can be taken after the R1 level with TP below Sell position can be taken after the S1 level with TP above
R2 and SL below S1. S2 and SL above R1.

R1 R2 S1 S2
43500 45000 41800 40000

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GLOBAL INDICIES
OUTLOOK

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06 INDICES
Market Mixture: Dow Jones Gains 0.15% as US
Stocks Close with Varied Performances

SUMMARY: The S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday,

inching towards a record high as the stock rally expanded
beyond tech. The surge is attributed to ongoing rate-cut
optimism, contributing to a broader market uptrend.

LATEST NEWS IMPACT: At 16:00 ET, S&P 500 trades

0.6% shy of its record high. Dow Jones sets fifth-straight
record, up 0.7%, and NASDAQ climbs 0.7%.

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: In a significant tech

development, Google (Alphabet) agrees to a $700 million
settlement in the anticompetitive practice’s lawsuit
regarding its Play app store on Android devices. Alphabet
stock responds with a 1% rise. FedEx (FDX) shares plunge
7% post-hours on Tuesday due to Q2 earnings miss and
lowered full-year revenue guidance.

OPINIONS: Cleveland Fed President Mester dismisses

expectations of near-term rate cuts, emphasizing markets'
premature projections. Indicates a cautious approach to
normalization in line with other Fed officials' sentiments
post last week's meeting.
 S&P 500

Technical Summary: S&P 500 Poised for Further Upside, Yet Limited by Recent Highs. Profit-taking and lingering
uncertainty after the recent rally. While no confirmed negative signals have emerged, a potential downward correction loom.
Despite the long position's ongoing profitability since February 27, a shift to a more short-term strategy is on the horizon.
Descriptive Analysis: S&P 500 Eyes Continued Upside Momentum, Constrained by Recent Highs. Post-rally profit-taking and
uncertainty persist. While no confirmed negative signals, a potential correction loom. Despite ongoing profitability since
February 27, a shift towards a more short-term strategy is being considered. On the hourly chart, S&P 500 futures trade just
above 4,800, with critical support at 4,760-4,780 and other key levels. On the downside, a recognized support level at 4630
provides nuance to the overall bullish trend.

Data Related Projection: CB Consumer Confidence is set for release today. If 'Actual' falls short of 'Forecast,' it's unfavorable
for the currency, potentially leading to some correction in S&P500 prices.
Indicator interpretation: Prices are ranging between the middle band of the BB indicator, also traded around 8 days EMA
indicating bearishness in the index.

Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: CB Consumer Confidence release today. If 'Actual' surpasses 'Forecast,' it's positive for the currency, possibly
resulting in a rise in prices of S&P 500 indices.
Technical Confirmations: If levels sustain above the middle band of the BB Indicator and EMA also continue to show figures
in negative territory, then the above-given triggers will confirm short-term buying in indices.

Facts & figures: The S&P 500's top three sectors—Information Technology, Health Care, and Communication Services—
. comprise approximately 50% of the index.

Daily Pivot: 4800 (CMP is 4768, & the prices are trading below the pivot level while writing the report)

Bullish Setup: Bearish Setup:

Buy if prices break the R1 then it triggers a bullish shot Sell position can be taken after the S1 level with TP above
up in prices which we can catch for the TP of R2 and SL S2 and SL above R1.
below S2.

R1 R2 S1 S2
4800 4880 4700 4630

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