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Cause and Effect

This document defines and distinguishes between cause and effect, correlation, and causation. It provides examples of different types of relationships between variables, including cause-and-effect relationships, common-cause factors, reverse cause and effect relationships, accidental relationships, and presumed relationships. It also discusses extraneous variables and techniques to help determine whether a correlation reflects a true cause-and-effect relationship, such as controlling for extraneous variables, replicating studies, and accounting for common-cause factors.

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49 views

Cause and Effect

This document defines and distinguishes between cause and effect, correlation, and causation. It provides examples of different types of relationships between variables, including cause-and-effect relationships, common-cause factors, reverse cause and effect relationships, accidental relationships, and presumed relationships. It also discusses extraneous variables and techniques to help determine whether a correlation reflects a true cause-and-effect relationship, such as controlling for extraneous variables, replicating studies, and accounting for common-cause factors.

Uploaded by

ledmabaya23
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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MDM4U CAUSE AND EFFECT Date: _____________

A cause is something that makes something else happen. Out of two events, it is the event that happens
first. To determine the cause, ask the question "Why Did it Happen?"

An effect is what happens as a result of the cause. Of two related events, it’s the one that happens second
or last. To determine the effect, ask the question "What Happened?"

Causal Nets
Causal nets are used in representing causal connections and in calculating probabilistic relations between
events. Here is a simple example of a causal net showing how some events are related to each other. The
arrows indicate the direction of causation.

Correlation
Correlation means that two variables (sets of data) type of association with each other, such
that as one variable increases, the other also increases (a positive correlation), decreases (a negative
correlation).
A strong correlation does not prove that changes in one variable cause changes in the other.

Cause and Effect


It is tempting to assume that when two variables are positively correlated, then one causes the other (i.e.,
the variables have a "cause and effect" relationship) but this is not always the case.

Correlation and Causation


Data analysts often jump to unjustified conclusions by mistaking an observed correlation for a cause-
effect relationship. A high sample correlation coefficient does not necessarily signify a causal relation
between two variables. A classic example concerns an observed high positive correlation between the
number of storks sighted and the number of births in a European city. Hopefully, no one would use this
evidence to conclude that storks bring babies, or, worse yet, that killing storks would control population
growth.

Another “classic” example: ice cream sales peak during the summer months; cases of heat stroke increase
during the summer. Does this imply that eating ice cream causes heat stroke?
There are various types and degrees of casual relationships between variables.

1. Cause-and-Effect Relationship: A change in X produces a change in Y.

2. Common-cause Factor: A common-cause factor is one that influences two or more variables under
study in the same way. When hidden, this can be considered to be a lurking variable. It is always a
good idea to always ask "could there be a third factor that is actually causing both A and B?" Over the
course of several weeks the needles from the pine trees along the Wombat River fell into the water.
Shortly thereafter, many dead fish washed up on the river banks. When the EPA investigated, the
owners of the Wombat River Chemical Company claimed that is it was obvious that the pine needles
had killed the fish. Many local environmentalists claimed that the chemical plant's toxic wastes caused
both the trees and the fish to die and that the pine needles had no real effect on the fish.

3. Reverse Cause and Effect Relationship: This is a relationship in which the presumed dependent and
independent variables are reversed in the process of establishing causality.

4. Accidental Relationship
This is a correlation between two variables that happens by random chance.

5. Presumed Relationship: This is a correlation that does not seem to be accidental even though no
cause-and-effect relationship or common-cause factor is apparent.

Extraneous Variables

Extraneous Variables are undesirable variables that influence the relationship between the variables that
an experimenter is examining. While these variables influence what is being studied, they are not the
variables of interest. In order to reduce the effect of extraneous variables, results from an experimental
group are compared to the results from a control group. These two groups should be as similar as
possible, so that extraneous variables will have about the same effect on both groups, and any difference
in the dependent variables for the two groups can then be attributed to the changes in the independent
variable.

When designing a study or interpreting a correlation, background knowledge and insight are useful in
recognizing the presence of a causal relationship.

Is the Correlation a result of a Cause-and-Effect Relationship?

Techniques that can help determine whether a correlation is the result of a cause-and-effect relationship:

 Use sampling methods that hold the extraneous variables constant


 Conduct similar investigations with different samples and check for consistency in the results
 Remove, or account for, possible common-cause factors

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