BASICS OF

PROBABILITY
RAHUL BHATTACHARYA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS
UNIVERSITY OF CALCUTTA
 GENESIS
• BLAISE PASCAL (1623-1662) : FATHER OF MODERN PROBABILITY

• IN CORRESPONDENCE WITH FERMAT THROUGH 5 LETTERS HE LAID THE FOUNDATION FOR

THE THEORY OF PROBABILITY.

• THEY CONSIDERED THE DICE PROBLEM, ALREADY STUDIED BY CARDAN, WHICH ASKS HOW
MANY TIMES ONE MUST THROW A PAIR OF DICE BEFORE ONE EXPECTS A DOUBLE SIX.

• THEY ALSO CONSIDERED AND THE PROBLEM OF POINTS( CARDAN, PACIOLI AND
TARTAGLIA),
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WHICH ASKS HOW TO DIVIDE THE STAKES IF A GAME OF DICE IS INCOMPLETE.
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 TERMINOLOGIES

❑ An experiment is an act which can be repeated under

identical conditions. Results of an experiment are
outcomes
❑A random experiment is an experiment process that
leads to one of the possible outcomes but the exact
outcome is not predictable prior to the experiment .
❑ A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes
of a random experiment. The symbol ( S ) is used for
the sample space .
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 SOME SAMPLE
SPACES

Experiment Sample Space

Toss a coin S={Head , Tail}
Roll a die S={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Answer a true/false question S={True, False}

Toss two coins S={HH, HT, TH, TT}

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Example : TOSSING A COIN TWICE

Find the sample space when two coins are tossed

simultaneously. Use H for head and T for tail.

Solution :

2n=22 = 4 possible outcomes

S={HH,HT,TH,TT}

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Example : GENDER OF CHILDREN

Find the sample space for the gender of the children

if a family has three children. Use B for boy and G
for girl.
Solution :

2n=23 = 8
S={BBB , BBG , BGB , BGG , GBB , GBG , GGB
,GGG}

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 TOSSING A COIN TWICE

• USE A TREE DIAGRAM TO FIND THE SAMPLE

SPACE WHEN TWO COINS ARE TOSSED AT THE
SAME TIME

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 GENDER OF THREE CHILDREN IN A
FAMILY

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 TOSSING A COIN THRICE

• ???????

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CAN U SUGGEST AN EVENT?
CAN U SUGGEST ANOTHER EVENT?
 SAMPLE SPACE MAY NOT BE FINITE:
EMISSION FROM A RADIOACTIVE
SOURCE
• IN AN EXPERIMENT, EMISSION COUNT FROM A RADIOACTIVE SOURCE
IN ONE MINUTE IS RECORDED.

• S={0,1,2,3,…}

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 SAMPLE SPACE MAY NOT BE FINITE:
TOSSING A COIN UNTIL A HEAD
APPEARS

• A COIN IS TOSSED UNTIL A HEAD APPEARS

• S={H,TH,TTH,TTTH…..}
• S IS COUNTABLE BUT NOT FINITE

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 SAMPLE SPACE MAY NOT BE FINITE: A
POINT IS CHOSEN FROM A UNIT SQUARE
• A POINT IS CHOSEN FROM A SQUARE WITH SIDES UNITY

• S= {( x, y) : 0  x  1,0  y  1}
• S IS NEITHER COUNTABLE NOR FINITE
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 SIMPLE & COMPOUND EVENTS

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❑ Paradigms of probability

➢ Classical approach (Laplace)

➢Relative Frequency interpretation (R. vonMises)

➢ Subjective approach

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 Classical paradigm
❑ Classical probability uses sample spaces to determine the
numerical probability that an event will happen and assumes
that all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to
occur.

❑ Equally Likely outcomes are outcomes that are as likely to occur

as any other

n(E) # of desired outcomes

P(E) = =
n ( S ) Total # of possible outcomes
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 PROBABILITY OF SIMPLE EVENTS

EXAMPLE 1: ROLL A DICE.

WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF ROLLING A 4?

# FAVORABLE OUTCOMES
P(event) =
# POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

P(rolling a 4) =1/6

THE PROBABILITY OF ROLLING A 4 IS 1 OUT OF 6

 PROBABILITY OF SIMPLE EVENTS

EXAMPLE 2: ROLL A DICE.

WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF ROLLING AN
EVEN NUMBER?

P(event) = # FAVORABLE OUTCOMES

# POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

3
P(even #) = 6

THE PROBABILITY OF ROLLING AN EVEN NUMBER IS 3 OUT

OF 6 OR .5 OR 50%
 PROBABILITY OF SIMPLE EVENTS

EXAMPLE 3: SPINNERS.
WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF SPINNING
GREEN?

# FAVORABLE OUTCOMES
P(event) = # POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

P(green) =1/4

THE PROBABILITY OF SPINNING GREEN IS 1 OUT OF 4 OR .25

OR 25%
 PROBABILITY OF SIMPLE EVENTS

EXAMPLE 5: DECK OF CARDS.

WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF PICKING A HEART?

# FAVORABLE OUTCOMES 13
P(heart) = =
# POSSIBLE OUTCOMES 52
THE PROBABILITY OF PICKING A HEART IS
1 OUT OF 4 OR .25 OR 25%

WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF PICKING A NON HEART?

# FAVORABLE OUTCOMES 39 3
P(nonheart) = =
# POSSIBLE OUTCOMES 52 4
THE PROBABILITY OF PICKING A HEART IS
3 OUT OF 4 OR .75 OR 75%
CALCULATE THE PROBABILITY OF
EACH EVENT

1) P(BLACK) = 4/8
2) P(1) = 1/
8

3) P(ODD) = 1/2
4) P(EVEN) = 1/2
CALCULATE THE PROBABILITY OF
EACH EVENT

1) P(RED) =
2) P(2) =
3) P(NOT RED) =
4) P(EVEN) =
 REAL WORLD EXAMPLE

A COMPUTER COMPANY MANUFACTURES

2,500 COMPUTERS EACH DAY. AN
AVERAGE OF 100 OF THESE COMPUTERS
ARE RETURNED WITH DEFECTS. WHAT
IS THE PROBABILITY THAT THE
COMPUTER YOU PURCHASED IS NOT
DEFECTIVE?
Example : GENDER OF CHILDREN

If a family has three children, find the probability that exactly two of
the three children are girls.

Solution :
Step 1 : Sample Space:
S ={BBB ,BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB ,GBG ,GGB ,GGG}
Step 2 : Event:
E= exactly two of the three children are girls
Step 3 : A={BGG, GBG, GGB}

P(E)=n(E)/n(S) = 3/8

The probability of having exactly two of three children being girls

is 3/8.
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 Probability Rules
Consider S is finite. Then

➢ For any event E, 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1

➢ If an event E cannot occur , then P(E)= 0.

➢ If an event E is certain to occur, then P(S) =1.

➢The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the

sample space is unity, i.e. ∑ p = 1
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Example : ROLLING A DIE
When a single die is rolled , find the probability of getting a 9 .
Solution :
S= {1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 } , A={ø}
P(9) = = 0/6 = 0
Second Rule
Example :
When a single die is rolled ,what is the probability of getting a
number less than 7 ?.
Solution :

S={1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6} , A ={1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6}
P(A)= = 6/6 = 1
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Fourth Rule
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The complement of an event E , denoted by is the set of
outcomes in the sample space that are not included in the
outcomes of event E.
Example 4:
Find the complements of each event.
Event ( E ) Complement of Event ( E )
Rolling a die and getting a 4 Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6

Selecting a month and getting a Getting February, March, April, May,

month that begins with a J August, September, October, November,
or December

Selecting a day of the week and Getting Saturday or Sunday

getting a weekday
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 S
E

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 Probability of Complementary Events

Example :
If the probability that a person lives in an industrialized
country of the world is , Find the probability that a person
does not live in an industrialized country.
P (Not living in industrialized country )
= 1 − P ( living in industrialized country )
1 4
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= 1− = 9/24/2020
5 5
 LIMITATIONS OF CLASSICAL PARADIGM

• APPLICABLE ONLY WHEN SAMPLE SPACE IS FINITE

• APPLICABLE FOR EQUALLY LIKELY OUTCOMES :

CIRCULARITY IN THE DEFINITION

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 GEOMETRIC PROBABILITY

• THIS IS A MODIFICATION TO ALLOW INFINITE SAMPLE SPACES

P(A)=MEASURE(A)/MEASURE(S),

• MEASURE (FINITE) INDICATES LENGTH, AREA, VOLUME OR …

ASSOCIATED WITH A AND S

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 AN EXAMPLE: POINTS IN INTERVAL

• A POINT IS CHOSEN AT RANDOM FROM UNIT INTERVAL (0,1)

• WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT IT LIES BETWEEN .25 AND .75?

• 0 1 :S
• 0.25 0.75 :E

• P(E)=LENGTH OF E/LENGTH OF S=.5/1=.5

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 ANOTHER EXAMPLE: BULL’S EYE

• CONSIDER A CIRCULAR TARGET OF RADIUS 2 UNIT. THE BULL’S EYE IS A

CONCENTRIC CIRCULAR REGION WITHIN THIS HAVING RADIUS 0.1 UNITS.
• WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT A SHOT HITS THE BULL’S EYE?
•
• PROBABILITY= AREA(SMALL CIRCLE)
• AREA(BIG CIRCLE)
• =.1*.1/(2*2)=1/400

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 Relative Frequency interpretation
It relies on actual experience to determine the likelihood of
outcomes.
Associated with a random experiment the probability of an event
A is interpreted as the long run relative frequency.

If a random experiment is repeated n times under identical

conditions and f(A) is the frequency of occurrence of event A,

REMARK
P(A)=lim f(A)/n
:
❑ or indicate the Union ( + ).
❑ and indicate intersection ( × ).
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 HOW LARGE IS LARGE?

• IF A COIN IS TOSSED LARGE NUMBER OF TIMES, THE PROPORTION OF HEADS IS

EXPECTED TO SETTLE DOWN TO A CONSTANT VALUE, REGARDED AS PROBABILITY.
• COUNT BUFFON (1707-1788) TOSSED A COIN 4040 TIMES AND GOT 2048
HEADS (I.E. OBTAINED PROBABILITY .5069)
• KARL PEARSON(1857-1936) TOSSED A COIN 24000 TIMES AND GOT 12012
HEADS (I.E. OBTAINED PROBABILITY .5005)

• IN PRACTICE, DETERMINATION OF PROBABILITY USING THIS APPROACH IS NOT

FEASIBLE AND ONLY PROVIDING AN IDEA IS POSSIBLE.

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Example:
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A
blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB blood. Set up a
frequency distribution and estimate the following
probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.
Type Frequency f
P (O) =
A 22 n
21
B 5 =
50
AB 2
O 21
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Total 50
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
Type Frequency
A 22
22 5
B 5 P ( A or B ) = +
50 50
AB 2 27
=
O 21 50
Total 50
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
Type Frequency
A 22 P ( neither A nor O )
B 5 5 2
= +
AB 2 50 50
7
O 21 =
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Total 50
d. A person does not have type AB blood.

Type Frequency
A 22 P ( not AB )
B 5 = 1 − P ( AB )
AB 2
2 48 24
O 21 = 1− = =
50 50 25
Total 50

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 Subjective probability
Subjective probability uses a probability value based on an
educated guess, employing opinions and inexact information.

Examples: weather forecasting, predicting outcomes of

sporting events

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 Event classification
❑ Two events are Mutually Exclusive Events if
they cannot occur at the same time (i.e., they have
no outcomes in common)

P(A or B)=P(A) + P(B) Mutually Exclusive

P (S)
❑ This means that P(A∩B)= 0
i.e. the two event cannot occur B A
at the same time .
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❑ Two events are Not Mutually Exclusive Events,
then the probability of event A or B occurs denoted
by P(AUB), is given by

P(AUB)= P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B) Not mutually exclusive

P(A∩B)
❑ Where P(A∩B) is P (S)

the probability both A A

B
and B occur.
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Example : ROLLING A DIE

Determine which events are mutually exclusive and which

are not, when a single die is rolled.

a. Getting an odd number and getting an even number

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5
Getting an even number: 2, 4, or 6
Mutually Exclusive

b. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number

Getting a 3: 3
Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5
Not Mutually Exclusive
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 EXAMPLE

• A FAMILY WITH 2 CHILDREN.

• SUPPOSE BOYS (B) & GIRLS (G) ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.

• WHAT IS THE SAMPLE SPACE S?

• S = {BB, GG, BG, GB}

We have 2 possibilities for the 1st child, B & G.

• B G
 We can pair each of these with 2 possibilities.

• B G

• B G B G
 That gives 4 possibilities : BB

• B G

• B G B G
 BG

• B G

• B G B G
 GB

• B G

• B G B G
 And GG

• B G

• B G B G
 EXAMPLE CONTINUED
•IF E IS THE EVENT THAT BOTH CHILDREN ARE THE SAME SEX, WHAT DOES
E LOOK LIKE & WHAT IS ITS PROBABILITY?
•E = {BB, GG}
•SINCE BOYS & GIRLS ARE EQUALLY LIKELY,
EACH OF THE FOUR OUTCOMES IN THE SAMPLE SPACE S = {BB, GG, BG,
GB} IS EQUALLY LIKELY & HAS A PROBABILITY OF 1/4.
•SO P(E) = 2/4 = 1/2 = 0.5
 EXAMPLE CONT’D: RECALL THAT
E = {BB, GG} & PR(E)=0.5

•WHAT IS THE COMPLEMENT OF E AND WHAT IS ITS PROBABILITY?

•EC = {BG, GB}

•P (EC) = 1- P(E) = 1 - 0.5 = 0.5

 EXAMPLE CONTINUED

•IF F IS THE EVENT THAT AT LEAST ONE OF THE CHILDREN IS A GIRL,

•WHAT DOES F LOOK LIKE & WHAT IS ITS PROBABILITY?

F = {BG, GB, GG}

P(F) = 3/4 = 0.75

 RECALL: E = {BB, GG} & PR(E)=0.5
F = {BG, GB, GG} & PR(F) = 0.75

• WHAT IS E∩F?
• {GG}

• WHAT IS ITS PROBABILITY?

• 1/4 = 0.25
 RECALL: E = {BB, GG} & PR(E)=0.5
F = {BG, GB, GG} & PR(F) = 0.75
•WHAT IS THE EUF?
• {BB, GG, BG, GB} = S
•WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF EUF?
•1
•IF YOU ADD THE SEPARATE PROBABILITIES OF E & F TOGETHER, DO YOU GET
P(EUF)? LET’S TRY IT.

•P(E) + P(F) = 0.5 + 0.75 = 1.25 ≠ 1 = P (EUF)

•WHY DOESN’T IT WORK?
•WE COUNTED GG (THE INTERSECTION OF E & F)
TWICE.
 A FORMULA FOR P(EUF)

•P(EUF) = P(E) + P(F) - P(E∩F)

•IF E & F DO NOT OVERLAP, THEN THE INTERSECTION IS THE EMPTY SET,
& THE PROBABILITY OF THE INTERSECTION IS ZERO.

•WHEN THERE IS NO OVERLAP,

P(EUF) = P(E) + P(F) .
Example : SELECTING A DOUGHNUT
A box contains 3 glazed doughnuts , 4 jelly doughnuts , and 5
chocolate doughnuts. If a person selects a doughnut at random
,find the probability that it is either a glazed doughnut or a
chocolate doughnut.
Solution : The events
P(glazed) + P(chocolate) = are mutually
exclusive
Example :

Solution :

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Example :
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians ;7 nurses
and 3 physicians are females. If a staff person is selected ,find
the probability that the subject is a nurse or a male.
Staff Females Males Total
Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13

Solution :

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 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

• SOME INFORMATION ABOUT THE EVENTS UNDER CONSIDERATION IS

GIVEN AND WE WANT TO UPDATE THE CHANCE OF OCCURRING AN
EVENT USING THE INFORMATION.
• A DIE IS ROLLED ONCE. S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
• THEN P(GETTING 2)=1/6
• SUPPOSE WE KNOW THAT THE OUTCOME WAS AN EVEN NUMBER AND
NOW WE WANT TO UPDATE.
• THEN SAMPLE SPACE REDUCES TO 𝑆 ∗ = {2,4,6}
• P(GETTING 2 WHEN THE OUTCOME IS KNOWN TO BE EVEN)=1/3 ???????

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 REDUCED SPACE OF A WHEN B
OCCURRED
•
• INITIALLY

A
• B

• UPDATED
AB
• CBCC-2020
B 9/24/2020
 DEFINING CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
• N(AB)=NUMBER OF ELEMENTARY EVENTS FAVORABLE TO BOTH A AND B
• N(B)=NUMBER OF ELEMENTARY EVENTS FAVORABLE TO B
• THEN N(AB)/N(B) IS THE PROPORTION OF ELEMENTARY EVENTS FAVORABLE TO A
AMONG THOSE WHICH ARE FAVORABLE TO B
• N(AB)/N(B) REPRESENTS THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A GIVEN THAT B HAS
OCCURRED.

• SYMBOLICALLY, P(A|B)= N(AB)/N(B) =P(AB)/P(B) WHEN P(B)>0

SIMILARLY P(B|A)=P(BA)/P(A)=P(AB)/P(A) WHEN P(A)>0
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 THEN
❑ Conditional probability is the probability that
the event B occurs given that the event A has
already occurred.

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 EXAMPLE : SURVEY ON WOMEN IN THE MILITARY
A recent Gallup survey asked 100 people if they thought women in the
armed forces should be permitted to participate in combat. The results
of the survey are shown.

a. Find the probability that the respondent answered yes (Y),

given that the respondent was a female (F).

8
P ( F and Y )
( YF =)
P CBCC-2020
P ( F)
= 50 =
100 8
=
4
9/24/2020
50 25
100
b. Find the probability that the respondent was a male
(M), given that the respondent answered no (N).

18
P ( N and M )
( )
18 3
P MN = = 100 = =
P ( N) 60 60 10
100
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Problem :
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians ;7 nurses
and 3 physicians are females. A staff person is selected ,find
the probability that.
Staff Females Males Total
Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13

(i) the subject is a male nurse

(ii) the subject is a female physician)

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PROBLEM :

•Find the probability that the employee is a doctor or a female.

•Find the probability that the employee is a physiotherapy.
•Find the probability that the employee is a nurse and a male.

•Find the probability that the employee is a doctor given that he

a male .

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 Independent events

❑ Events A and B are independent events if the fact

that A occurs does not affect the probability of B
occurring.

If A and B are Independent Events

P(A|B)=P(A)
or equivalently
P(AB)=P(A) . P(B)
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 SELECTING A COLORED
Example: BALL
An urn contains 3 red balls , 2blue balls and 5 white balls .A ball is
selected and its color noted .Then it is replaced .A second ball is selected
and its color noted . Find the probability of each of these.

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 Independent events using Tree Diagrams
Tree diagrams can be used to help solve problems involving both
dependent and independent events.

The following situation can be represented by a tree diagram.

Peter has ten coloured cubes in a bag. Three of the cubes are red and 7 are
blue. He removes a cube at random from the bag and notes the colour
before replacing it. He then chooses a second cube at random. Record the
information in a tree diagram.

First Choice Second Choice

3 3 3 9
10 red P(red and red) = x =
10 10 100
3 red
10 7 3 7 21
10 blue P(red and blue) = x =
10 10 100

3 7 3 21
7 10 red P(blue and red) = x =
10 10 100
10 blue
INDEPENDENT 7
10 blue P(blue and blue) =
7
x
7
=
10 10 100
49
 Characteristics of a tree diagram
First Choice Second Choice
3 3 3 9
10 red P(red and red) = x =
10 10 100
3 red
10 7 3 7 21
10 blue P(red and blue) = x =
10 10 100

3 7 3 21
7 10 red P(blue and red) = x =
10 10 100
10 blue
7 7 7 49
The blue P(blue and blue) = x =
10 10 10 100
probabilities
for each event
are shown along Ends of first and
the arm of Probabilities are
second level multiplied along
each branch branches show
and they sum each arm.
the different
to 1. outcomes.
 Question 1 Rebecca has nine coloured beads in a bag. Four of the beads are
black and the rest are green. She removes a bead at random from the bag
and notes the colour before replacing it. She then chooses a second bead.
(a) Draw a tree diagram showing all possible outcomes. (b) Calculate the
probability that Rebecca chooses: (i) 2 green beads (ii) A black followed
by a green bead.

Second Choice
First Choice 4 4 4 16
9 black P(black and black) = x =
9 9 81
4 black
9 5 4 5 20
9 green P(black and green) = x =
9 9 81

4
5 4 20
5 9 black P(green and black) = x =
9 9 81
9 green
5 5 5 25
9 green P(green and green) = x =
9 9 81
Question 2 Peter tosses two coins. (a) Draw a tree diagram to show all
possible outcomes. (b) Use your tree diagram to find the probability of
getting (i) 2 Heads (ii) A head or a tail in any order.

First Coin Second Coin

1
2 head P(head and head) = 1 x 1 = 1
2 2 4
1 head
2 1 1 1 1
2 tail P(head and tail) = x =
2 2 4

1
1 1 1
1 2 head P(tail and head) = x =
2 2 4
2 tail
1 1 1 1
2 tail P(tail and tail) = x =
2 2 4
P(2 heads) = ¼ P(head and a tail or a tail and a head) = ½
Question 3 Peter and Becky run a race and play a tennis match. The
probability that Peter wins the race is 0.4. The probability that Becky wins
the tennis is 0.7. (a) Complete the tree diagram below. (b) Use your tree
diagram to calculate (i) the probability that Peter wins both events. (ii) The
probability that Becky loses the race but wins at tennis.

Race Tennis
0.3 Peter 0.4 x 0.3 = 0.12
Peter Win
0.4 Win Becky
0.7 0.4 x 0.7 = 0.28
Win

0.3 Peter 0.6 x 0.3 = 0.18

Win
0.6 Becky
Win 0.7 Becky 0.6 x 0.7 = 0.42
Win
P(Win and Win) for Peter = 0.12 P(Lose and Win) for Becky = 0.28
 Dependent events using Tree Diagrams

The following situation can be represented by a tree diagram.

Peter has ten coloured cubes in a bag. Three of the cubes are red and seven
are blue. He removes a cube at random from the bag and notes the colour
but does not replace it. He then chooses a second cube at random. Record
the information in a tree diagram.

First Choice Second Choice

2 3 2 6
9 red P(red and red) = x =
10 9 90
3 red
10 7 3 7 21
9 blue P(red and blue) = x =
10 9 90

3 7 3 21
7 9 red P(blue and red) = x =
10 9 90
10 blue
DEPENDENT 6
blue P(blue and blue) =
7 6 42
x =
9 10 9 90
 Question 4 Rebecca has nine coloured beads in a bag. Four of the beads are
black and the rest are green. She removes a bead at random from the bag
and does not replace it. She then chooses a second bead. (a) Draw a tree
diagram showing all possible outcome (b) Calculate the probability that
Rebecca chooses: (i) 2 green beads (ii) A black followed by a green bead.

First Choice Second Choice

3
8 black P(black and black) = 4 x 3 = 12
9 8 72
4 black
5
9
8 green P(black and green) = 4 x 5 = 20
9 8 72
4
5 8 black P(green and black) = 5 x 4 = 20
9 8 72
9 green
4 5 4 20
8 green P(green and green) = x =
9 8 72
 Question 5 Lucy has a box of 30 chocolates. 18 are milk chocolate and the
rest are dark chocolate. She takes a chocolate at random from the box and
eats it. She then chooses a second. (a) Draw a tree diagram to show all the
possible outcomes. (b) Calculate the probability that Lucy chooses:
(i) 2 milk chocolates. (ii) A dark chocolate followed by a milk chocolate.

First Pick Second Pick

17 18 17 306
29 Milk P(milk and milk) = x =
30 29 870
18 Milk
12
30
29 Dark P(milk and dark) = 18 x 12 = 216
30 29 870
18
12 18 216
12 29 Milk P(dark and milk) = x =
30 29 870
30 Dark
11 12 11 132
29 Dark P(dark and dark) = x =
30 29 870
 Some problems on Probability
EXAMPLE : DEFECTIVE TRANSISTORS
A box contains 24 transistors ,4 of which are defective. If 4
are sold at random ,find the following probabilities.
Solution :
a. Exactly 2 are defective. Def Non
24
4 def
20
2
2 4

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b. None is defective

Def Non
24
4 def
20
0
4 4

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 Def Non
c. All are defective. 24
4 def
20
4
0 4

d. At least 1 is defective.

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 EXAMPLE : COMMITTEE SELECTION
A store has 6 TV Graphic magazines and 8 News time
magazines on the counter. If two customers purchased a
magazine, find the probability that one of each magazine
was purchased.

Solution : News
TV . G 14
time
6
1 8
1 2
C1 8 C1 6  8 48
6
= =
CBCC-2020
14 C2 91 91 9/24/2020
 EXAMPLE: COMBINATION LOCKS
A combination lock consists of the 26 letters of the alphabet.
If a 3-letter combination is needed, find the probability that
the combination will consist of the letters ABC in that order.
The same letter can be used more than once. (Note: A
combination lock is really a permutation lock.)

Solution :
1/26 1/26 1/26

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•A store contains 10 toys, 6 of which are defective. If a child bought 3
toys at random, what is the probability of getting 2 defective toys?

• A person owns a collection of 25 movies, five of which are

English. If four movies are selected at random, find the probability
that three of them are English.

• Given nine flowers, four of which are white and five of

them are red, if two flowers are selected at random, without
replacement, what is the probability that both flowers are
red?

•The probability of randomly selecting 3 science books and 4 math

books from 8 science books and 9 math books is
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