BOT315

(BIOSTATISTICS)
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

PREPARED BY: OKUNGBOWA, G. E.

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

• Binomial (Binary outcome)

• Poisson (Count Outcome)
• Normal/Gaussian Distribution (continuous outcome)
 THE BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

• A binomial experiment is one that possesses the following properties:

• The experiment consists of n repeated trials;
• Each trial results in an outcome that may be classified as a success or a failure
(hence the name, binomial); (Bi=Two)
• The probability of a success, denoted by p, remains constant from trial to trial
and repeated trials are independent.
• The number of successes X in n trials of a binomial experiment is called a
binomial random variable.
• The probability distribution of the random variable X is called a binomial distribution,
and is given by the formula:
• 𝑃(𝑋) = 𝑛𝑥𝐶𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥
• where
• n = the number of trials; x = 0, 1, 2, ... n;
• p = the probability of success in a single trial; q = the probability of failure in a single
trial; (i.e. q = 1 − p)
 • This is a binomial distribution because there are only 2 possible outcomes (we get
1 5
either a 5 or we don’t). 𝑝 = ; 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 =
6 6

• Now, n=3 for each part. Let X= number of fives appearing.

• (a) Here, X = 0

𝑛𝐶𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥 3 0 3−0 3 1 0 5 3 125

• 𝑃 𝑋=0 = 𝑥 = 0𝐶𝑝 𝑞 = 0𝐶 6 = = 0.5787
6 216

• (b) Here, x = 1.
• Examples
𝑛𝐶𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥 3 1 3−1 3 1 1 5 2 75
• A die is tossed 3 times. What • 𝑃 𝑋 = 1 = 𝑥 = 1𝐶𝑝 𝑞 = 1𝐶 6 6
=
216
= 0.347
is the probability of:
• (b) Here, x = 3.
• (a) No fives turning up?
• (b) 1 five?
• (c) 3 fives?
 • This is a binomial distribution because there are only 2 outcomes (the patient dies, or
does not).
• Let X = number who recover.
• Here, n=6 and x=4. Let p=0.25 (success, that is, they live), q=0.75 (failure, i.e. they die).
• The probability that 4 will recover:
• Example 2
• 𝑃 𝑋 = 4 = 𝑛𝑥𝐶𝑝 𝑥 𝑞𝑛−𝑥 = 64𝐶𝑝4 𝑞6−4 = 64𝐶 0.24 4
0.75 2
= 0.03295
• Hospital records show
that of patients suffering • Exercise:
from a certain • 𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝑃 𝑋 = 0 ; 𝑃 𝑋 = 2 ; 𝑃 𝑋 = 3
disease, 75% die of it.
What is the probability
that of 6 randomly
selected patients, 4 will
recover?
 THE POISSON PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
• Applications (For Count Data over a period of • The probability distribution of a Poisson
time) e.g.: random variable X representing the number of
successes occurring in a given time interval or a
• the number of deaths by COVID-19
specified region of space is given by the formula:
• Number of women attending Antenatal
𝑒 − 𝑥
• Number of car accidents • 𝑃 𝑋 =
𝑥!

• Number of time students attended BOT315 virtual class • where

• x=0,1,2,3…; e=2.71828; μ= mean number of
successes in the given time interval or region of space
 EXAMPLE

• A maternity hospital had 3000 deliveries each year, so if these happened

randomly around the clock, 1000 deliveries would be expected between
the hours of midnight and 8.00 a.m. This is the time when many staff are
off duty and it is important to ensure that there will be enough people to
cope with the workload on any particular night.
• The average number of deliveries per night is 1000/365, which is 2.74.
From this average rate the probability of delivering 0,1,2, etc babies each
night can be calculated using the Poisson distribution. Some probabilities
are:
• P(X=0) =2.740 e-2.74 / 0! = 0.065
• P(X=1) = 2.741 e-2.74 / 1! = 0.177
• P(X=2) = 2.742 e-2.74 / 2! = 0.242
• P(X=3) = 2.743 e-2.74 / 3! = 0.221
NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

• The Normal Probability Distribution is very common in the field of statistics.

• It is useful for Continuous variables
• Whenever you measure things like people's height, weight, Lipid Profile,
Haematological parameters, the graph of the results is very often a normal curve.
PROPERTIES OF A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

1.The normal curve is symmetrical about the mean μ;

2.The mean is at the middle and divides the area into halves;
3.The total area under the curve is equal to 1;
4.It is completely determined by its mean and standard deviation σ (or variance σ2)
THE STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

• It makes life a lot easier for us if we standardize our normal curve, with a mean of zero and a
standard deviation of 1 unit.
• If we have the standardized situation of μ = 0 and σ = 1, then we have:
𝑥2
1
• 𝑓 𝑋 = 𝑒− 2
2

• We can transform all the observations of any normal random variable X with mean μ and
variance σ to a new set of observations of another normal random variable Z with mean 1 using
the following transformation:
𝑋−
• 𝑍=

EXAMPLE

• It was found that the mean length of 100 parts produced by a lathe was
20.05 mm with a standard deviation of 0.02 mm. Find the probability that a part
selected at random would have a length
• (a) between 20.03 mm and 20.08 mm
• (b) between 20.06 mm and 20.07 mm
• (c) less than 20.01 mm
• (d) greater than 20.09 mm
• X = length of part; mean = 20.05mm
20.03−20.05
• (a) 20.03 is 0.02
= −1, that means 1 standard deviation below the mean;
20.08−20.05
• 20.08 is = 1.5 standard deviations above the mean.
0.02
• P(20.03<X<20.08)
• P(−1<Z<1.5)
• 0.3413+0.4332
• 0.7745
• So the probability is 0.7745.