DECISION SUPPORT

SYSTEMS
2023/2024

Gonçalo Figueira
João Alves
Beatriz Carrapatoso
Lecture Plan

What is simulation?

What are its goals and what are

its main use cases?

Why is simulation becoming so

important?
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Introduction: system
❖ Group of objects that are joined together in interaction
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or interdependence toward the accomplishment of
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some purpose (Banks et al., 2010)
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❖ Each system is surrounded by its environment. System ❑

boundaries separate the system and its environment ❑

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Introduction: queuing system

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Introduction: queuing system M/M/1

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Introduction: modeling
Modeling involves:
Systems can be modeled differently:
❖ Observing a system
❖ Physical model
❖ Understanding the key existing components and
❖ Analytical models
relationships (generally few variables determine the
global behavior of the system) ❖ Simulation models
❖ Developing a representation of the system (a model)
that will allow further studies


= 1
 W=
 −

 n = P( N = n ) L = W =
 −
=  (1 −  )
1 
Wq = W − =
  ( −  )
2
Lq = Wq =
 ( −  )
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Introduction: types of models

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Introduction: modeling
At the end of the day… why is this so important?

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Introduction: simulation

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Introduction: pros

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Introduction: cons

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Introduction: wrong choices

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Introduction: types of simulation

❖ Static vs. Dynamic

❖ Is time relevant in the model and does simulation evolve
over time?

❖ Continuous vs. Discrete

❖ Does the system variables vary continuously or in discrete time
intervals?

❖ Deterministic vs. Stochastic

❖ Are there uncertainties and random variables in the system
behavior?

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Introduction: abstraction levels

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Introduction: simulation techniques

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Introduction: simulation techniques

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Introduction: simulation techniques
What is Multimethod Modelling? Multimethod Modeling

If there are many independent objects, use an

agent-based approach.

If there is only information about the global

dependencies, use system dynamic

If a system is easily described as a process, use Having access to all methods simultaneously
gives the flexibility needed to successfully
a discrete-event approach. solve the any problem

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Now let’s get back to reality…

Where can we use simulation?

What are its most common use cases?

How can we use it efficiently?

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Pretty much…
everywhere19
I’m going to show you two case-studies!

1st End-to-end holistic simulation

2nd Operational logistics simulation

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Supply Chain Simulation (example)
Project in the biggest retailer in Portugal
Highly complex supply chain
Difficult to find and filter improvement opportunities

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Supply Chain Simulation (example)
❖ Thescope of the simulator covers warehouse operations, transportation
and store logistics

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Supply Chain Simulation (example)
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Supply Chain Simulation (example)

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Supply Chain Simulation (example)
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Supply Chain Simulation (example)

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Layout Simulation (example)
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Layout Simulation (example)

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Layout Simulation (example)
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Layout Simulation (example)

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Layout Simulation (example)
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Layout Simulation (example)

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Or other type of realities in
which simulation is widely used…

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Manufacturing
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Performance: Manufacturing context

Manufacturing Example:
❖ Total production of parts over the run (P )
❖ Average waiting time of parts in queue:
❖ Maximum waiting time of parts in queue:
❖ Average number of parts in queue
❖ Maximum number of parts in queue
❖ Average and maximum total time in system of parts (flow time)
❖ Utilization of the machine (proportion of time busy)

❖ Many others possible (information overload? The list goes on…)

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Logistics and Transport Systems
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Healthcare

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Now that we’ve learnt about the
use of simulation in real cases…

Let’s get to know its main concepts!

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Simulation modeling concepts
❖ Agent: an object of interest in the system (an actual agent
perceives, decides and acts within its environment)
❖ Parameter: a property of an entity

❖ Resource: what agents will compete for

❖ Process: an activity that lasts for a specified period

❖ State: a snapshot of the system at a given time

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Concepts: example
❖ Goal:make improvements on a bank branch whose customers
are complaining over long waiting times.
❖ There are two tellers:
❖ Teller#1: Experienced Teller#2: Young, fresh graduate
❖2 Types of customers:
❖ complicated transactions that take a long time (L)
❖ standard transactions that take a short time (S)
T1
T2

❖ Customers join the shortest queue (if equal, decide randomly)

❖ Performance indicator:
❖ Average waiting time of customers in queue
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Concepts: example
Can we state components of the system in the
Bank example?

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How to perform a simulation study?

❖ Formulate the problem (set ❖ Verify the model

objectives, constraints and ❖ Validate the model
decisions – scope)
❖ Design experiments
❖ Conceptualize the model
❖ Create runs, analyze results
❖ Collect relevant data
and get insights
❖ Translate into modeling
❖ Document the work done!
software

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How to perform a simulation study?
3. Model 8. Experimental
conceptualization design

No
Yes Yes 9. Production
1. Problem 2. Definition of 5. Model
6. Verified? 7. Validated? and analysis
formulation the approach translation
No No

Yes Yes
4. Data collection 10. More runs?

No

11. Documentation
12. Implementation and reporting

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THANK YOU!
QUESTIONS?