Population dynamics

HSCI 130: Foundations in Health Sciences

By Robert Hogg
 Land Acknowledgement
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speaking peoples. Specifically, the sháshíshálh-speaking
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speaking people of Sḵwx̱wú7mesh Nation, and the
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Lecture overview
1. Population growth
2. Change over time
3. Demographic transition
4. Thomas Malthus
5. Limiting factors
6. Consequences of growth
7. Millennium declaration
Reading
• Cohen JE. Should Population
Projections Consider "Limiting
Factors"-- and If So, How? Population
and Development Review 1998 (24):
118-138.
Tutorial
• Objective: To review the impact of population dynamics on human health.
• Submit three PowerPoint slides (see Rubric)
• Review the following research article and discuss how population growth strains our earth’s
finite natural resources makes it difficult for people around the world to meet their basic
needs. What are the major issues and what are the solutions?.

Article:
• Cohen JE. Should Population Projections Consider "Limiting Factors"-- and If So, How?
Population and Development Review 1998 (24): 118-138.
Source: Our World in Data
About the author:
Esteban Ortiz-Ospina is an economist at the University of Oxford.
He is a Senior Researcher at the Oxford Martin Programme on Global Development.

About Our World in Data:

Our World in Data is an online publication that shows how living conditions are changing. The
aim is to give a global overview and to show changes over the very long run, so that we can
see where we are coming from, where we are today, and what is possible for the future.

www.ourworldindata.org/about | @eortizospina
Population growth
Population Growth
• Population (t+n) =
Population (t) + (Births - Deaths) + (In - out migrants)
(Natural increase) (Net migration)
Population Growth
• Population (t+n) =
Population (t) + (Births - Deaths) + (In - out migrants)
(Natural increase) (Net migration)

• Natural Increase – peaked at 2.1% (1965) and now 1.1% (population doubles every 54 years)
Population Growth
• Population (t+n) =
Population (t) + (Births - Deaths) + (In - out migrants)
(Natural increase) (Net migration)

World population = 7.2 billion +

(~75 million/ yr) +
Population Growth
• Population (t+n) =
Population (t) + (Births - Deaths) + (In - out migrants)
(Natural increase) (Net migration)

World population = 7.2 billion +

(~75 million/ yr) + (0 ± aliens)
 Population Growth Model
Immigration

+
Births
+ Popula'on
- Deaths

-
Emigration
Population Growth
• Function of natural increase and net migration
• Migration does not play a role at a global level
• Took until 1800 to reach our first billion people
• Now over 7.2 billion expect to reach 9 billion by mid-
century.
Slowing of Growth
Change over time
Human population over time
Human population over time

Increased continually since

the plague in the 1400s
î
Human population over time
Peak at 9 billion?
î

Increased continually since

the plague in the 1400s
î
What’s Behind Population Growth
Three Factors Industrial Revolution
• Fertility • Growth of Cities and
• Infant Mortality Infrastructure
• Longevity • Water
• Energy
Animal Domestication and • Transportation
Agriculture • Increased Productivity
• Provided for a few to feed • Nutrition
many • Sanitation
• Medicine
Types of growth
Exponential Growth Logistic Growth
—Occurs when there is —Occurs when there are
unlimited resources limited resources
—Causes a population to —Causes a population to
increase in size rapidly grow and then stabilize at a
—J-shaped curve specific carrying capacity
—Biotic potential the ideal —S-shaped curve
conditions (no limiting —Limiting factors control
factors) population size
Population Growth Curves
Exponential Growth - J Logistic Growth - S
CARTOGRAM OF GLOBAL POPULATION

The size of each territory shows the relative proportion of the world’s population living there.
 1 AD

This map shows the distribution of the world population in 1AD.

 1500 AD

This map shows the distribution of the world's population in year 1500.
 1900 AD

This map shows the distribution of the world's population in year 1900.
 1960 AD

This map shows the distribution of the world's population in year 1960.
 2050 AD

This map shows the predicted distribution for the estimated world population in 2050.
World by Lights
Our World in Data
In 1820 there were about one billion humans
living on earth. In 2016 there were 7.33 billion.
Today we are close to 7.5 billion.

According to recent estimates, today's

population is about to 6.9% of the total number
of people ever born.

This chart shows the evolution of global

population by regions. With the option
'Relative' you can see the changing shares of
population across regions.

(Note: We plot a longer series, showing world

population all the way back to prehistory here.
And we plot country-by-country population
trends from 1700 up until today here.)
Demographic transition
Transition Stages

1 2 3 4
Stage 1: Preindustrial Stage 2: Early Industrial Stage 3: Late Industrial Stage 4: Post Industrial
Society – high and Society - high birth Society – low death Society – low birth and
unstable birth & death rates, falling death rate, rate, falling birth rate, death rates, low
rates, population high population growth high population growth population growth
growth rate slow,
importance of children,
low life expectancy
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY
Our World in Data
This chart shows the demographic
transition in action for five very
different countries in Europe, Latin
America, Africa, and Asia.

The pattern is clear: first a decline of

mortality that starts the population
boom and then a decline of fertility
which brings the population boom to
an end.

This is one of the most important

lessons from demography: the
population boom is a temporary event.
Our World in Data
It would be wrong to assume that people in
poor countries, where families are larger,
need external help to control their fertility.

As this chart shows, fertility rates in poor

countries are declining faster than they did
in rich countries in the past.

But of course: policies can help speed

things up even more. As we have shown
here, policies that promote education,
health and better economic and social
opportunities for women, are effective
population policies.

(Note: You can explore country-by-country

changes in fertility in this interactive
chart. And you can read more about the
global decline of fertility in our entry here)
Thomas Malthus
Thomas Robert Malthus
13 February 1766 – 23 December 1834

• British demographer and

political economist
• Best-known for his
influential views on
population growth.
• His most famous
prediction was that the
global population would
steeply rise after the
industrial revolution.
Malthus’predictions

He predicted that:

1) human populations would

continue to grow
geometrically
2) Food production would
grow arithmetically, due to
diminishing marginal
returns (or less than
arithmetically)
 Malthus’predictions & reality

Failed to predict:

1) Impact of Industrial
revolution on food
production
2) The “opening” of new
lands (like North and
South America)
3) Declines in fertility rates
Neo-Malthusians
• Those who are concerned that population growth will
increase environmental degradation to a degree that is not
sustainable with the potential of ecological collapse.
• Club of Rome’s 1972 report on Limits of population growth
– act as catalyst for global change
• Huxley's novel Brave New World (1932) integrates
Malthusianism as a central theme.
Neo-Malthusians: The Club of Rome and
The Limits to Growth
Neo-Malthusians: The Club of Rome and
The Limits to Growth
What is missing?
Limiting factors
 Carrying capacity and limiting factors

Carrying capacity Limiting factors

• The number of individuals • Control population growth.
of a species that an • Populations would continue
ecosystem can support. to increase if they had all of
• In other words all the resources they require
populations have a finite in unlimited amounts, but
capacity for growth. there are always factors that
limit their increase.
Types of limiting factors in population
ecology
Biotic Abiotic
• Living component of an • Non-living chemical and
ecosystem; for example physical factors in the
organisms, such as plants environment which affect
and animals ecosystems.
• All living things. • Water, light, wind, soil,
humidity, minerals, gases.
Population Density Factors

Density independent Density dependent

• Impacts population size • When population growth
regardless of the rates are regulated by the
population’s density. density of a population.
• For example, natural • For example, overcrowding
disasters can reduce can cause diseases,
population size, regardless pathogens, and parasites to
of whether population spread quickly.
density is increasing.
 I=PAT

I = Environmental impact (I)

Population P= Population (P)

equation
A= Affluence (economic product
or consumption per person)
T= Technology
Developed by Paul R. Ehrlich to look at carrying capacity.
 IPAT equation describes the multiplicative
contribution of population (P), affluence (A) and
technology (T) to environmental impact (I).
I refers to resource depletion or waste
accumulation

Population P refers to the size of the human population

equation A refers to the level of consumption by that

population

T refers to the processes used to obtain

resources and transform them into useful goods
and wastes.
Developed by Paul R. Ehrlich to look at carrying capacity.
 IPAT example: Gasoline used in cars
• What are the factors that influence the amount of gasoline
we burn in automobiles?

• Gasoline = # of cars driven x Miles driven x Gasoline

car mile

Impact (I) Population (P) Affluence (A) Technology (T)

(Service provide/ car)

Source: The IPAT equation

 Limitations of IPAT
• To date, IPAT applications have been limited to evaluation of a
single variable measure of environmental impact, such as air
pollution.
• For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
has applied IPAT to studies of CO2 levels.
• The equation is helpful, to a limited extent, in assessing the
contribution of different PAT factors to greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions.
• The report suggests that levels of GHG emissions for affluent
countries increase with increases in affluence, while both
population and level of affluence can be significant factors in
GHG emission trends in poorer countries.
Source : Lutz, Wolfgang, 2009
Problem:

Future population growth in developing

nations could accentuate climate change. A
reduction in growth rates would, therefore,
help mitigate climate change while speeding
up poverty reduction and development.”
(Guzman 2009)
(1) Fresh water as Limiting Factor – Upper Limits
on World Population

Upper Limit on World

Population, assumes 20%
use of available water and
10% loss of food between
growth and consumption

*Joel E. Cohen. Population and Development Review, Vol. 24, Supplemental: Frontiers of Population Forecasting (1998), pp. 118 - 138
Limits – Water

• In 1950 people used

half of accessible water
• Are now dependent on
dams
• Pollution loses 33% of
potential water
• Getting close to limits
(2) Climate Change as Limiting Factor –
Carbon Dioxide Scenarios

Global energy-related and industrial CO2 emissions – historical development and future
scenarios, shown as an index (1990 = 1).

Source: In Cambridge University Press. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2000. Special Report on
Emissions Scenarios. London:
Population and Green House
Gas Emissions
“Population growth or decline will continue to be a key determinant of future emissions
increases” (Schneider, et.al 2010)

Source: Khatib (2011)

Views from Joel Cohen’s
1995 book
“How Many People Can
the Earth Support?”

• Make a bigger pie: Increase human

productive capacities through
technology and innovation
• Put fewer forks on the table: Reduce
numbers and expectations of people
through such means as family
planning and vegetarian diets.
• Teach better manners: Change the
terms of people’s interactions
through improved planning and
government to enhance social justice.
Consequences of growth
Haida Proverb
“We Do Not Inherit The Earth From Our
Ancestors; We Borrow It From Our Children”
Our World in Data
In order to study how the world population changes over
time, it is useful to consider the rate of change rather than
focusing only on the total population level.

This chart shows annual population growth rates,

superimposed over total world population for the period
1750-2010, plus UN projections up to 2100.

In 1962 annual population growth rates peaked, and since

then, they have been going down.

According to these UN projections, growth rates are likely

going to continue decreasing through the century.

This means that while the world population quadrupled in

the 20th century, it will not double in the 21st century.

Human population is not currently growing exponentially.

 Future trends
Population projections (high, medium
and low to 2300). The United Nations
high, medium, and low population
projections are based on assumptions
about current and future fertility,
mortality, and migration.
Data from United Nations Population
Division (2004)
World Population to 2300.
Source: Leahy and Engelman, 2008
Measures of human impact on natural
systems

Samuel S Myers Planetary health: protecting human health on a rapidly changing planet. The Lancet 2017 390, 2860-2868DOI: (10.1016/S0140-
6736(17)32846-5)
Measures of consumption over time

Samuel Myers Planetary health: protecting human health on a rapidly changing planet. The Lancet 2017 390, 2860-2868DOI: (10.1016/S0140-
6736(17)32846-5)
Low and declining oxygen levels in the open ocean and
coastal waters affect processes ranging from
biogeochemistry to food security

Denise Breitburg et al. Science 2018;359:eaam7240

Published by AAAS
Percentage of local population extinction in 177
species of mammals, as an indication of the
severity of the mass extinction crises
• The maps were generated by
comparing historic and current
geographic ranges
• Large regions in all continents
have lost 50% or more of the
populations of the evaluated
mammals.

Gerardo Ceballos et al. PNAS 2017;114:30:E6089-E6096

2017 by National Academy of Sciences
©
Insect Extinction
• Over 40% of insect species are
threatened with extinction.
• Habitat loss by conversion to
intensive agriculture is the main
driver of the declines.
• Agro-chemical pollutants,
invasive species and climate
change are additional causes.

FranciscoSánchez-Bayo and Kris Wyckhuys Biological Conservation 2019

 Humanity has spawned a
species extinction to rival the
5 great extinctions of 65 - 440
million years ago

Biodiversity Recovery times from the great

extinctions took 10’s of
is in Danger millions of years

Biodiversity is essential to life

on Earth and holds untold
treasures for the future
Impacts of anthropogenic
change on human health

Samuel Myers Planetary health: protecting human health on a rapidly changing planet. The Lancet 2017 390, 2860-2868DOI: (10.1016/S0140-
6736(17)32846-5)
Millennium declaration
Miniature
Earth
• Miniature earth project: Reducing
the world’s population to a
community of only 100 people.

• View:
http://www.miniature-earth.com
Millennium Declaration
• Adopted by 189 heads of states at the United Nations
Millennium Summit in 2000
• Eight millennium goals to be achieved by 2015
• Time-bound, measurable and mutually-reinforcing
development goals as a framework for the improvement of
the human condition.
UN Millennium Development Goals
Agreed by 189 countries in 2000
to be achieved by 2015!

www.betterbytheyear.org
 Commitments
• “These eight commitments…are simple but powerful
objectives that every man and woman…can easily
understand and support. They are also different from other
bold pledges that became broken promises over the past 50
years: first, because they have unprecedented political
support; second, because they are measurable and time-
bound, with most of this agenda meant to be attained by
the year 2015; and third -- and most important – because
they are achievable.”

-Kofi Annan, Secretary-General

Several MDGs in reach
• Proportion living in extreme • City slum dwellers declining
poverty (47% in 1990 to 22% in (200 million dwellers benefitted
2010 living on less than from improved water, sanitation
$1.25US/day) and housing)
• Gains in the fight against • Hunger reduction target within
Malaria and TB (estimated 1.1 reach (Hunger reduced from
million deaths averted from 23.2% 1990/92 to 14.9% in
Malaria and deaths from TB 2010/12)
halved globally)
• Access to clean water (2.1 billion
gained access to improved
drinking water sources)
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
• Developed to replace the Millennium Development Goals, which
ended in 2015.
• SDGs are a collection of 17 global goals set by the United Nations.
• The broad goals are interrelated though each has its own targets to
achieve.
• The SDG goals apply to all countries and does not distinguish
between "developed" and "developing" nations, like in the MDGs.

Wikipedia
Education: Our
World in Data
The choice of having a child requires parents, but
especially mothers, to consider the opportunity
costs that come with children – e.g. risking health,
lower earnings, etc.

Education drastically affects opportunity costs,

and because of this more educated women tend to
have fewer children.

This chart shows that there is a correlation

between women's education and family size,
across countries and time. Looking at variation
within countries shows the same: more educated
women in a country tend to have fewer children.

These correlations capture the direct effect of

education on fertility, as well as other aspects,
such as the fact that education often goes together
with changes in social norms.

(Note: You can read our review of the evidence

supporting a causal link here.)
Mortality: Our
World in Data
Parents choose to have smaller families
when they can be confident that their
children will survive and thrive.

This chart shows that the average number

of children per woman tends to be higher in
countries where child mortality is higher.

Using the slider at the bottom of the chart

you can trace changes over time. You can
check that as child mortality goes down,
fertility rates also go down.

(Note: This chart only shows correlations.

You can read our review of the evidence
supporting a causal link between child
mortality and family size here.)
Stephen Hawking
"Although the chance of a disaster to planet Earth in a given
year may be quite low, it adds up over time, and becomes a
near certainty in the next thousand or ten thousand years.”
"By that time we should have spread out into space, and to
other stars, so a disaster on Earth would not mean the end of
the human race.”

Source: BBC's yearly Reith

Lectures, 2016
 Joel Cohen: solutions to
population growth
• Comprehensive education at primary, secondary, and tertiary levels
• Preventing unintended pregnancies;
• Opening markets to small farmers and extending credit to women
• Eliminating subsidies in rich countries that hurt poor people
• Using farmland for farms and not cities
• Promoting health and nutrition for all
• Limiting the use of chemicals to those that are the least harmful to the
environment
• Funding more agricultural research to use crops as food, not fuel.

Source: http://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2012/11/joel-cohen-students-demography-2/
Pale Blue Dot
• On September 15, 2006, Cassini spacecraft took
this picture while it was nearly 1.5 billion
kilometers (930 million miles) from Earth.

• View:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_FubSsksvM
• (adapted from Carl Sagan)
Next week: The origin of HIV