ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

CHAPTER 2
SURVIVAL MODELS II

2.1) Moments of T

Recall from Section 1 that T is a non-negative random variable representing the waiting
time until the occurrence of an event of interest (such as death, disability, sickness,
retirement, unemployment, recovery after diagnosis of a disease, survival following
treatment or surgery, time-until-default of credit payment in a bond, time-until-bankruptcy
of a company etc).

The mean or expected value of T is defined by

 
E (T ) =  t f (t ) dt =  S (t ) dt
0 0

In other words, the mean is simply the integral of the survival function S (t ) .
(See Example 1a for the proving.)

Example 1a

 
Use integration by parts to show that 0
t f (t ) dt =  S (t ) dt provided lim t S (t ) = 0 .
0 t →

Solution

The second moment of T is given by


E (T 2 ) =  t 2 f (t ) dt
0

The variance of T can be found by using the formula

Var (T ) = E (T 2 ) − [ E (T )] 2

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For the age-to-failure random variable X, the mean or expected value of X is called the
complete expectation of life at birth

o  
e0 = E ( X ) =  x f 0 ( x )dx =
0 0
S 0 ( x ) dx

The second moment of X is given by


E ( X 2 ) =  x 2 f 0 ( x ) dx
0

The variance of X can be found by using the formula

Var ( X ) = E ( X 2 ) − [ E ( X )] 2

For the time-to-failure random variable T x , the mean or expected value of T x is called the
complete future lifetime at age x (also called the complete expectation of life at age x)

o    
ex = E (Tx ) =  t f x (t )dt =
0 0
t t p x  x +t dt =  0
S x (t ) dt = 
0
t p x dt

o
e 20 = 71.94 means that averagely a person aged 20 is going to live for another 71.94 years.

The second moment of T x is given by

 
E (Tx ) =  t 2 f x (t )dt = 2  t t p x dt
2
0 0

(See Example 1b for the proving.)

Example 1b

 
Use integration by parts to show that 0
t 2 f x (t )dt = 2  t t p x dt provided lim t 2 S x (t ) = 0 .
0 t →

Solution

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ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

The variance of T x can be found by using the formula

Var (Tx ) = E (Tx ) − [ E (Tx )] 2

2

The n-year temporary complete future lifetime at age x, the average future lifetime of
(x) within the next n years, is defined as

o n n
e x: n =  t t p x  x +t dt + n n p x =  t p x dt
0 0

o
e 20:10 = 9.68 means that averagely a person aged 20 is going to live for another 9.68 years
within the next 10 years.

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ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

Example 2a (Constant Force of Mortality)

Given that
x = 

(a) Show that

(i) t p x = e − t
o
1
(ii) ex =

o
2
(b) Find an expression for e x:n , E (Tx ) and Var (T x ) .

Solution

(a) (i) t p x = e − 0  x + d = e − 0  d = e − t
t t

o  
1 1
(ii) e x =  t p x dt =  e − t dt = − [e − t ]0 =
0 0
 

o n n
1 1
(b) e x:n =  p x dt =  e −  t dt = − [e − t ]0n = [1 − e − n ]
 
t
0 0

E (Tx ) = 2  t t p x dt
2

0


= 2  te − t dt
0

 1 − t  1 
= 2  t ( − e ) ]0 −  − e − t .1 dt 
  0
 
  1 − t 
= 2  e dt 
0  

2 1  2
=  − e − t  = 2
  0 

Var (Tx ) = E (Tx ) − [ E (Tx )] 2

2

2 1 1
= − ( )2 = 2
 2
 

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ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

Example 2b (Uniform Distribution)

Given that

1
x = 0 x 
−x

(a) Show that

t
(i) px = 1 −
−x
t

o
−x
(ii) ex =
2
o
2
(b) Find an expression for e x:n , E (Tx ) and Var (T x ) .

Solution

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ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

Example 2c (Beta Distribution)

Given that


x = 0 x  ,   0
−x

(a) Show that

t
(i) p x = (1 − )
−x
t

o
−x
(ii) ex =
 +1
o
2
(b) Find an expression for e x:n , E (Tx ) and Var (T x ) .

Solution

2( − x ) 2 ( − x) 2   
Answer: E (Tx 2 ) = , Var(Tx ) =  
( + 1)( + 2)  +1  ( + 2)( + 1) 

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ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

Example 3a (Piecewise force of mortality)

The force of mortality for a life is

 0.01 t  5
 x +t = 
 0.02 t  5
o o
Calculate e x and e x:n .

First, we find t p x
For t  5 , t p x = e − 0  x + d = e − 0 0.01d = e −0.01t
t t

For t  5 , t p x = e − 0  x + d
t

− [ 0  x + d + 5  x + d ]
5 t
=e
−[ 5
0.01d + t
0.02 d ]
= e 0 5

= e −[ 0.01( 5−0 ) +0.02( t −5)]

= e0.05−0.02t
o o
We are now ready to get e x and e x:n|

o  5 

e x =  t p x dt =  t p x dt +  t p x dt
0 0 5
5 

= e − 0.01t
dt +  e 0.05−0.02t dt
0 5
1 1
=− [ e − 0.01t ]50 + e 0.05 . − [ e − 0.02 t ]5
0.01 0.02
−0.05
= 100 [1 − e ] + e .50 [ e −0.10 ]
0.05

= 100 − 50e −0.05 or 52.4385

o n n

For t  5 , e x: n =  t p x dt =  e −0.01t dt = 100 (1 − e −0.01n )

0 0

o n

For t  5 , e x: n =  t p x dt
0
5 n

=  e −0.01t dt +  e 0.05−0.02t dt
0 5

= 100 (1 − e −0.05 ) + e 0.05 .50 ( e −0.01 − e −0.02 n )

= 100 − 50e −0.05 − 50e 0.05−0.02n

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ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

Example 3b (Piecewise force of mortality)

The force of mortality for a life is

 0.04 0  x  40
x = 
 0.05 x  40

o o
Calculate e 25 and e 25:25 .

Solution

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ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

2.2) Curtate future lifetime random variable

The curtate future lifetime of (x) , denoted K x , refers to the number of future years
completed by (x) prior to death. K x is the greatest integer of T x .

The probability function of K x is given by

P ( K x = k ) = P ( k  Tx  k + 1)
= P (Tx  k ) − P (Tx  k + 1)
= S x ( k ) − S x ( k + 1)
= k p x − k +1 p x
= k +1 qx −k qx
= k| q x
= probabilit y that ( x ) will die between ages x + k and x + k + 1

The distribution function of K x is given by

k k
P( K x  k ) =  h| q x =  ( h +1 q x − h q x ) = k +1 q x (See Tutorial 2)
h=0 h=0

The mean or expected value of K x is called the curtate future lifetime of life at age x

  
ex = E ( K x ) =  k P( K x = k ) =  k k |q x =  k p x (See Tutorial 2)
k =0 k =0 k =1

The second moment of K x is given by

 
E ( K x ) =  k 2 k | q x =  ( 2 k − 1) k p x
2

k =0 k =1

The variance of K x can be found by using the formula

Var ( K x ) = E ( K x ) − [ E ( K x )] 2
2

The n-year temporary curtate future lifetime at age x, the average future lifetime of (x)
within the next n years, is defined as

n −1 n
ex:n =  k k |q x + n n p x =  k p x
k =0 k =1

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Example 4a (Constant Force of Mortality)

Given that
x = 

(a) Show that

(i) k| q x = e − k (1 − e −  )
1
(ii) ex = 
e −1

(b) Find an expression for ex:n .

Solution

First note that t p x = e − 0  x + d = e − 0  d = e − t

t t

Then, k | q x = k p x − k +1 p x = e − k − e −  ( k +1) = e − k (1 − e −  )

 n
ex =  k p x ex:n =  k px
k =1 k =1
 n
=  e − k =  e− k
k =1 k =1
− −2  −3
=e +e +e + ... = e −  + e −2  + e −3  + ... + e − n
e− e −  (1 − e − n )
= =
1 − e− 1 − e− 
= 
1 1 − e − n
= 
e −1 e −1

Note: Summation of Geometric progression

a (1 − r n )
Sn =
1− r
a
S =
1− r

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Example 4b (Uniform Distribution)

Given that
1
x = 0 x 
−x

(a) Show that

1
(i) qx =
−x
k|

 − x −1
(ii) ex =
2

(b) Find an expression for ex:n .

Solution

Note: Summation of Arithmetic progression

n
Sn = (a + l )
2

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2.3) Percentiles & Recursion

A 100  percentile of survival time is the time t such that there is a 100  % probability
that survival time is less than t. In other words, it is t such that t q x =  or t p x = 1 −  . The
median or the 50th percentile of future lifetime at age x is the value of t such that
t p x = t q x = 0 .50 . In other words, the median time-to-failure m is the solution to

S x ( m ) = Fx ( m ) = 12 . If the future survival time is uniformly distributed with limiting age 

−x
, the median future lifetime at age x is the midrange, half way from x to  , that is .
2
Under constant force of mortality, the median is the value of t such that t p x = e − t = 0.50
ln 2
or t = .


Example 5 (Median future lifetime)

Determine the median future lifetime of a life age x, under each the following forces of
mortality assumptions

(a)  x = Bc x (Gompertz Law)

(b)  x = kx n
(Weibull’s Distribution)
(c)  x =  (Constant Force)*
1
(d)  x = (Uniform Distribution)*
−x

(e)  x = (Beta Distribution)
−x

Solution

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ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

Example 6 (Median future lifetime)

Determine the median future lifetime of a life age x, for each the following survival
functions:

x 1
(a) S 0 ( x ) = (1 − )2

(b) S 0 ( x ) = 1 − kx
1
(c) S 0 ( x ) =
1+ x

Solution

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ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

Example 7 (Percentiles)

1
Future lifetime of a life age x is subjected to the force of mortality  x + t = . Determine
t + 50
the 75th percentile of future lifetime.

Solution

Example 8 (Percentiles)(Gompertz’s Law)

Future lifetime of a life age 45 is subjected to the force of mortality  x = 0.0003 (1.065) x .
Determine the 60th percentile of future lifetime.

Solution

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ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

Recall that for both complete and curtate future lifetime, we have formulas expressing them
as the sums or integrals of probabilities of survival. We can actually obtain nice recursive
o o
formula to ease our calculation of e x , e x:n , e x and e x:n . Some of the useful recursive
formulas are given below

(For complete future lifetime)

o o o
e x = e x:n + n p x e x + n
o o o
e x: n
= e x:m + m px e x + m:n −m

(For curtate future lifetime)

e x = e x:n + n p x e x + n

e x: n
= e x:m + m px e x + m:n −m

e x = p x (1 + e x +1 )

e x: n
= px (1 + e x +1:n −1 )

Example 9 (Recursions)

You are given the following information:

• q x = 0 .010 , q x +1 = 0 .015 , q x + 2 = 0.020 , q x + 3 = 0.030 and q x + 4 = 0.035

• e x = 24

Calculate e x + 3 .

Solution

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ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

Example 10 (Recursions)

Show that if e x +1  e x , then e x +1  px

1− p x .

Solution

Example 11 (Recursions) (Gompertz’s Law)

Given the force of mortality  x = 0.001 (1.05) x , and e 40 = 34.97 . Determine e 41 .

Solution

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ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

2.4) Fractional Ages Assumptions

When adopting a life table which may contain only integer ages, some assumptions are
needed about the distribution between integers

• Uniform Distribution of Deaths (UDD) Assumption

• Constant Force of Mortality Assumption

2.4.1) Uniform Distribution of Deaths (UDD) Assumption

Under the UDD assumption, l x + t is a linear function for 0  t  1 . Applying linear

interpolation we get

l x + t = (1 − t ) l x + t l x +1 or

l x+t = l x − t d x

Under this UDD assumption, we also have

t qx = t qx
qx
 x +t =
1 − t qx
t p x  x +t = q x
t qx
qx+s = 0  s +t 1
1 − s qx
t

o
e x = ex + 0.5
o
e x:n| = e x:n| + 0.5n q x
o
e x:n| = n n p x + n2 n q x
o
e x:1| = p x + 0.5q x

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ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

Example 12

Prove that under UDD assumption for fractional ages,

(a) t q x = t q x
(b) t p x = 1 − t q x
qx
(c)  x + t =
1 − t qx
(d) t p x  x + t = q x
t qx
(e) qx+s = 0  s +t 1 (Hint: q x = s p x t q x + s = s p x − s +t p x )
1 − s qx
t s|t

Solution

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ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

2.4.2) Constant Force of Mortality Assumption

Under the Constant Force of Mortality assumption, l x + t is an exponential function for

0  t  1 . Applying exponential interpolation we get

l x + t = (l x )1−t ( l x +1 ) t or

ln l x + t = (1 − t ) ln l x + t ln l x +1

Under this Constant Force of Mortality assumption, we also have

q x = 1 − (1 − q x ) t
t

 x + t =  = − ln p x
t p x  x + t =  e − t
t q x + s = 1 − e − t 0  s +t 1

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ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

Example 13

Prove that under Constant Force of Mortality assumption for fractional ages,

(a) t qx = 1 − (1 − qx )t
(b) t p x = ( p x ) t = e − t
(c)  x + t = − ln p x
(d) t p x  x + t =  e − t
(e) t q x + s = 1 − e − t 0  s +t 1 (Hint: s|t q x = s p x t q x + s = s p x − s +t p x )

Solution

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ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

Example 14 (Fractional Ages Assumption)

You are given q x = 0.10 and q x +1 = 0 .15 . Calculate 1 q x + 3 by using:

2 4

(a) Uniform Distribution of Deaths (UDD) Assumption

(b) Constant Force of Mortality Assumption

Compare your answers.

Solution

1 q x + 3 = 1 q x + 3 + 1 p x + 3  1 q x +1
(a) 2 4 4 4 4 4 4

1
qx  1
4 qx
 1
= + −   4 qx +1 
4
1
1 − 34 qx  1 − 34 qx 
=

(b) 1 q x + 3 = 1 q x + 3 + 1 p x + 3  1 q x +1
2 4 4 4 4 4 4

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ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

Example 15 (Fractional Ages Assumption)

You are given

• q x = 0.10 , q x +1 = 0.15
• The force of mortality is constant between integral ages
o o
Calculate q
0.3|0.5 x + 0.4 , e x:0.4| , and e x + 0.4:0.6|

Solution

0.3|0.5 q x + 0.4 = 0.3 p x + 0.4 − 0.8 p x + 0.4

= 0.8 q x + 0.4 − 0.3 q x + 0.4
= ( 0.6 q x + 0.4 + 0.6 p x + 0.4 0.2 q x +1 ) − 0.3 q x + 0.4
=

o 0.4
e x:0.4|
= t px dt
0
0.4
=  1 − t qx dt
0
0.4
=  1 − [1 − (1 − q x )t ] dt
0
0.4
=  (1 − q x )t dt
0
=

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Example 16 (Fractional Ages Assumption) (Recursive formula)

You are given

• q x = 0.10 , q x +1 = 0.20
• Deaths are uniformly distributed between integral ages

o o o o o
Calculate e x + 0.5:1 and e x:1.5 (Hint: e x: n
= e x:m + m px e x + m:n −m )

Solution

o 1
e x + 0.5:1
=  t px + 0.5 dt
0

0 .5 1
= t p x +0.5 dt +  t p x+0.5 dt
0 0 .5
0.5 0.5
=  1 − t q x + 0.5 dt +  0.5 p x + 0.5 ( t p x +1 ) dt
0 0

=
=

= 89
95

o o o
e x:1.5
= e x:0.5 + 0.5 px e x + 0.5:1 (how and why?)

= 1.3775

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ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

2.5) Select and Ultimate Tables

An individual applying for insurance coverage usually has different mortality than the
general population. This is because the insurer will screen the application to determine the
level of mortality risk for that individual. Some tests (such as a medical examination) may
be required before insurance is offered. If the insurer make the restrictions that individual
of poorer health are not accepted, then it is reasonable to say that the population selected
for life insurance coverage will have lower mortality probability than the original
population of all individuals. Those offered the coverage is said to have met the selection
criteria of the insurer. A life table constructed based on which the above characteristics are
taken into consideration is called a select and ultimate table.

Denote

p[ x ] = probability that a person who is underwritten and selected for insurance at age x
will survive for another year

q[ x ] = probability that a person who is underwritten and selected for insurance at age x
will die within the next year

The first step in developing a select and ultimate table is to determine the select period r.
In this case the impact of selection diminishes after the select period r.

q[ x ]+ k  q x + k but q[ x ]+ j = q x + j for k  r and j  r

For a select period of 3 years, (i.e. r = 3)

q[ x ]  q x , q[ x ]+1  q x +1 , q[ x ]+ 2  q x + 2 , and q[ x ]+ 3 = qx + 3

An example of a 3-year select and ultimate table is shown below

[x ] [ x] + 1 [ x] + 2 x + 3
   
30 q[ 30] q[ 30 ]+1 q[ 30]+ 2 q 33
31 q[ 31] q[ 31]+1 q[ 31]+ 2 q 34
32 q[ 32] q[ 32 ]+1 q[ 32]+ 2 q 35
   

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lx+n lx − lx+n lx+n − lx+n+m

In Chapter 1, we have n p x = , n qx = , and n| m qx =
lx lx lx

For a select table, we have

l[ x ]+ n l[ x ] − l[ x ]+ n l[ x ]+ n − l[ x ]+ n + m
n p[ x ] = , n q[ x ] = , and n|m q[ x ] =
l[ x ] l[ x ] l[ x ]

From this we can construct a select and ultimate table with entries in terms of l

[x ] [ x] + 1 [ x] + 2 x+3
   
30 l[ 30 ] l[ 30]+1 l[ 30]+ 2 l 33
31 l[ 31] l[ 31]+1 l[ 31]+ 2 l 34
32 l[ 32 ] l[ 32]+1 l[ 32]+ 2 l 35
   

Example 17 (Select and Ultimate Tables)

Consider a select and ultimate table with a 2-year select period. Express the following in
terms of l function.

(a) 2 p[ 40 ] (b) 1| q[ 41] (c) 1| q[ 40]+1 (d) 2 q[ 41]+ 2

Solution

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Example 18 (Select and Ultimate Tables)

Consider a select and ultimate table with a 3-year select period. Express the following in
terms of l function.

(a) 2 p[ 40 ] (b) 1| q[ 41] (c) 1| q[ 40]+1 (d) 2 q[ 41]+ 2

Solution

l[ 40]+ 2
(a) 2 p[ 40] =
l[ 40]

l[ 41]+1 − l[ 41]+ 2
(b) 1| q[ 41] =
l[ 41]

l[ 40 ]+ 2 − l[ 40 ]+ 3 l[ 40]+ 2 − l 43
(c) 1| q[ 40]+1 = =
l[ 40 ]+1 l[ 40]+1

l[ 41]+ 2 − l 45
(d) 2 q[ 41]+ 2 =
l[ 41]+ 2

School of Mathematical Sciences (SMS) page 53 August 2020 Semester

ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

Example 19 (Select and Ultimate Tables)

Consider a select and ultimate table with a 2-year select period shown below.

x l[ x ] l[ x ]+1 lx+2 x+2

   
30 1000 998 995 32
31 996 994 988 33
32 994 990 982 34
33 987 983 970 35
   

Obtain the values of

(a) 2 p[ 31] (b) 2 p[ 30]+1 (c) 1| q[ 31] (d) 1| q[30]+1 (e) 2 q[ 33] (f) 2 q[ 31]+ 2

Solution

l[ 31]+ 2 l33 988

(a) 2 p[ 31] = = =
l[ 31] l[ 31] 996

l[ 30 ]+ 3 l33 988
(b) 2 p[ 30]+1 = = =
l[ 30 ]+1 l[ 30 ]+1 998

l[ 31]+1 − l[ 31]+ 2 l[ 31]+1 − l33 994 − 988

(c) 1| q[ 31] = = =
l[ 31] l[ 31] 996

l[ 30 ]+ 2 − l[ 30 ]+ 3 l32 − l33 995 − 988

(d) 1| q[ 30]+1 = = =
l[ 30 ]+1 l[ 30]+1 998

l[ 33] − l[ 33]+ 2 l[ 33] − l35 987 − 970

(e) 2 q[ 33] = = =
l[ 33] l[ 33] 987

l[ 31]+ 2 − l35 l33 − l35 988 − 970

(f) 2 q[ 31]+ 2 = = =
l[ 31]+ 2 l33 988

School of Mathematical Sciences (SMS) page 54 August 2020 Semester

ASC2014 Life Contingencies I BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Studies

Example 20 (Select and Ultimate Tables)

Mortality is select and ultimate and is shown below

x q[ x ] q[ x ]+1 q[ x ]+ 2 q x+3 x+3

    
40 0.002 0.005 0.008 0.012 43
41 0.003 0.006 0.009 0.015 44
42 0.004 0.007 0.010 0.018 45
    

Calculate q
2|3 [ 41] .

Solution

Example 21 (Select and Ultimate Tables)

In a 1-year select and ultimate table, you are given

• e[ 60] = 25
• q60 = 0.01 , q61 = 0.02
• q[ x ] = 0.6qx

Calculate e [ 61] . (Hint: e x = p x (1 + e x +1 ) )

Solution

School of Mathematical Sciences (SMS) page 55 August 2020 Semester