Technical Research | October 24, 2011

Daily Technical Report

Sensex (16786) / NIFTY (5050)
Markets opened marginally higher on Friday session and traded in a narrow range during the first half of the session. However, selling pressure intensified during the second half which dragged indices lower to test daily 20 EMA which is placed around 16714 / 5025 level. On the sector front, Realty, Capital Goods and Metal counters were among the losers whereas Consumer Durable sector ended with a marginal gain. The advance decline ratio was strongly in favor of declining counters (A=1112 D=1682). (Source
www.bseindia.com)

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Formation
We are observing a positive crossover in Weekly RSI Smoothened momentum oscillator. On the Weekly chart, there is a Horizontal Line
Source: Falcon

resistance at 17256 / 5198 level. The 20 EMA on the Weekly chart is now placed at

17215 / 5172 level. On the Daily chart, the 20 EMA is placed at 16714 /

Actionable points:
View Resistance Levels Support Levels Neutral 5177 5198 5011 4944

5025 level. (Note: All technical evidences mentioned last week are almost unchanged; therefore, we continue to mention them along with a single addition of Daily 20 EMA)

Trading strategy:
Yet another week ended with a failure of crossing the strong resistance zone of 17260 / 5198. We reiterate that the bulls are facing a major hurdle of this Weekly Horizontal Line and 20 EMA near 17256 / 5198 levels. Therefore, we are of the opinion that unless we get some strong positive trigger on the global or domestic front, our markets may not cross this stiff resistance zone. On an optimistic note, a positive crossover in Weekly RSI smoothened oscillator is still intact, which may come into action if indices manage to cross and sustain above 17256 / 5198 level. In this case, indices may rally towards the gap area of 17358 17665 / 5230 5323 created on August 5, 2011. Therefore, we advise traders to stay light on positions and trade with strict stop losses. On the other hand, indices have a decent support of Daily 20 EMA, which is now placed around 16714 16669 / 5025 5011 levels. Indices are likely to test 16460 16300 / 4944 4890 levels if indices manage to sustain below 16669 / 5011 level. Broadly speaking, indices have a trading range of 17256 to 16669 / 5198 to 5011. A violation of this range on either side would lead to a clear direction of the trend. Moreover, traders should take a note that the markets may react to various global and domestic events in the coming week. The decision of the European Union on the EFSF and monetary policy coupled with derivative expiry on Tuesday would lead to increased volatility in the markets.

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Technical Research | October 24, 2011

Bank Nifty Outlook - (9695)

Bank nifty opened with a minor upside gap on Fridays session and traded in a narrow range throughout the day to close in the negative territory. On the Weekly chart, we are observing a positive crossover in RSI smoothened, which suggests possibility of an upside momentum in coming weeks, if Bank nifty sustains above yesterdays high of 9811. In this scenario, it is likely to rally towards the resistance zone of 9970 -10030 levels. On the downside, 9580 level may act as s support for the day.

Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Actionable points: View Resistance Levels Support Level

Neutral 9970 10030 9580
Source: Falcon

Stock Recommendations:
Stock Reliance Infra. (Oct.Fut.) Action Sell Last close - ` 399.25 Selling Range - ` 400 - ` 404 Stop Loss - ` 410.65 Target - ` 384

Exhibit 3: Reliance Infra.(Oct Fut) Daily chart

Justification On the daily chart, we are witnessing that the stock has faced a resistance near ` 430 which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall from ` 485 to ` 366. Further, on the hourly chart, the stock has given a bearish Cup & Handle pattern break down at ` 401.50. The placement of moving averages and momentum oscillators on the daily chart suggests further weakness in the stock. Hence, sell this stock in a range of ` 400 ` 404 for a target of ` 384 in coming 3 4 trading sessions.

Source: Falcon

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Technical Research | October 24, 2011

Positive Bias: Stock Name Jindal Poly Escorts 5 Day EMA 203.9 69.15 20 Day EMA 203.8 76 Expected Target 228 84.5 Remarks View will change below 196 View will change below 77

Negative Bias:

Stock Name Tata Motors Federal Bank

5 Day EMA 181.1 386

20 Day EMA 171.1 376.21

Expected Target 167 365

Remarks View will change above 188.2 View will change above 402

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Technical Research | October 24, 2011

Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA DLF DRREDDY GAIL HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INFY ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT M&M MARUTI NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RCOM RELCAPITAL RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SAIL SBIN SESAGOA SIEMENS STER SUNPHARMA SUZLON TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS WIPRO S2 16,577 4,987 9,595 1,104 146 1,112 1,596 367 313 628 280 284 218 1,489 411 406 618 479 1,980 118 321 857 119 2,684 201 515 67 458 1,267 787 1,071 167 261 963 97 490 73 326 821 389 82 104 1,919 200 806 112 476 35 172 95 422 1,034 346 S1 16,681 5,018 9,645 1,111 148 1,120 1,619 372 317 636 284 286 222 1,510 415 409 626 483 2,016 120 323 864 120 2,703 203 523 68 462 1,301 795 1,083 168 263 973 98 494 74 330 828 394 84 105 1,934 203 814 114 482 36 175 96 428 1,042 350 PIVOT 16,857 5,070 9,728 1,119 152 1,130 1,637 382 321 644 287 288 226 1,532 419 414 638 487 2,041 123 328 873 122 2,726 205 533 70 468 1,359 803 1,100 170 266 985 99 499 75 336 839 402 85 106 1,951 208 820 116 489 36 180 98 436 1,051 354 R1 16,961 5,101 9,778 1,126 154 1,138 1,659 388 325 652 291 289 229 1,553 423 418 645 491 2,077 124 331 880 123 2,745 206 540 71 472 1,394 810 1,112 171 268 995 100 503 76 340 846 407 86 107 1,965 211 828 117 495 37 183 99 442 1,059 358 R2 17,137 5,152 9,861 1,135 157 1,148 1,677 398 329 659 294 291 233 1,575 427 422 657 496 2,102 127 335 890 125 2,768 208 551 73 478 1,452 818 1,130 173 270 1,007 101 509 77 346 857 415 87 108 1,982 215 834 119 502 38 189 100 450 1,068 362

Technical Research Team

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Technical ResearchTechnical24, 2011 | October Report

RESEARCH TEAM
Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Mehul Kothari Ankur Lakhotia Head - Technicals Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst

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