8

Statistical Intervals
for a Single Sample
CHAPTER OUTLINE
8-1 Introduction 8-3.1 t Distribution
8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean 8-3.2 t Confidence Interval on μ
of a Normal, σ2 Known 8-4 Confidence Interval on σ2 & σ of a
8-2.1 Development of the Confidence Normal Distribution
Interval & Its Properties 8-5 Large-Sample Confidence Interval
8-2.2 Choice of Sample Size for a Population Proportion
8-2.3 1-Sided Confidence Bounds 8-6 Guidelines for Constructing
8-2.4 General Method to Derive a Confidence Intervals
Confidence Interval
8-7 Tolerance & Prediction Intervals
8-2.5 Large-Sample Confidence Interval
8-7.1 Prediction Interval for a Future
for μ
Observation
8-3 Confidence Interval on the Mean of 8-7.2 Tolerance Interval for a Normal
a Normal, σ2 Unknown Distribution
Chapter 8 Title and Outline
1
 Learning Objectives for Chapter 8
After careful study of this chapter, you should be able to do the
following:
1. Construct confidence intervals on the mean of a normal distribution,
using either the normal distribution or the t distribution method.
2. Construct confidence intervals on the variance and standard deviation of
a normal distribution.
3. Construct confidence intervals on a population proportion.
4. Use a general method for constructing an approximate confidence
interval on a parameter.
5. Construct prediction intervals for a future observation.
6. Construct a tolerance interval for a normal population.
7. Explain the three types of interval estimates: Confidence intervals,
prediction intervals, and tolerance intervals.

Chapter 8 Learning Objectives 2

© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 8-1 Introduction
• In the previous chapter we illustrated how a parameter can be
estimated from sample data. We know that X-bar is not exactly
to mu.
• it is important to understand how good is the estimate obtained.
(How close X-bar to Mu?). Therefore, reporting with interval is
more appealing.
• Bounds that represent an interval of plausible values for a
parameter are an example of an interval estimate.
• Three types of intervals will be presented:
• Confidence intervals
• Prediction intervals
• Tolerance intervals 3
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance Known

8-2.1 Development of the Confidence Interval

and its Basic Properties (Eq. 8-1)

4
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance Known

8-2.1 Development of the Confidence Interval

and its Basic Properties (Eq. 8-2 & 3)

5
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a
Normal Distribution, Variance Known

8-2.1 Development of the Confidence Interval and its Basic

Properties (Eq. 8-4)
• The endpoints or bounds l and u are called lower- and upper-confidence limits,
respectively.
• Since Z follows a standard normal distribution, we can write:

6
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 Remember Z distribution?

Sec 2- 7
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance Known

8-2.1 Development of the Confidence Interval and its Basic

Properties (Eq. 8-5)

Definition

8
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance Known
Example 8-1

9
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 Minitab
• Stat>basic statistics>1- sample Z

Sec 2- 10
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance Known

Interpreting a Confidence Interval

• The confidence interval is a random interval
• The appropriate interpretation of a confidence
interval (for example on ) is: The observed interval [l, u]
brackets the true value of , with confidence 100(1-).
• Examine Figure 8-1 on the next slide.

11
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance Known

Figure 8-1 Repeated construction of a confidence interval for . 12

© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance Known

Confidence Level and Precision of Error

The length of a confidence interval is a measure of the
precision of estimation.

Figure 8-2 Error in estimating  with x.

13
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance Known

8-2.2 Choice of Sample Size (Eq. 8-6)

Definition

14
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance Known

Example 8-2

15
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 Minitab
• Stat>Power and Sample Size> Sample Size for
estimation

Sec 2- 16
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance Known

8-2.3 One-Sided Confidence Bounds (Eq. 8-7 & 8)

Definition

See further EXAMPLE 8-3

17
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance unknown

8-2.5 A Large-Sample Confidence Interval for  (Eq. 8-11)

Definition

Note: Equation 8-11 holds regardless of the shape of the population distribution if n>=
21 40
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance unknown

Example 8-4

22
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance unknown

Example 8-4 (continued)

23
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance unknown
Example 8-4 (continued)

Figure 8-3 Mercury concentration in largemouth bass (a) Histogram. (b)

Normal probability plot 24
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance unknown
Example 8-4 (continued)

25
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-3 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance Unknown (small sample size)

8-3.1 The t distribution (Eq. 8-13)

27
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-3 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance Unknown

8-3.1 The t distribution

Figure 8-4 Probability density functions of several t distributions.

28
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-3 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance Unknown

8-3.1 The t distribution

Figure 8-5 Percentage points of the t distribution.

29
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
Sec 2- 30
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-3 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance Unknown (small sample size)

8-3.2 The t Confidence Interval on  (Eq. 8-16)

One-sided confidence bounds on the mean are found by replacing t/2,n-1 in Equation 8-16
with t ,n-1.

31
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-3 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal Distribution,
Variance Unknown
Example 8-5

32
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-3 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance Unknown

Figure 8-6 Box and Whisker plot for the load at failure data in Example
8-5. 33
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-3 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance Unknown

Figure 8-7 Normal probability plot of the load at failure data in Example
34
8-5. © John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 Minitab
• Stat>Basic Statistics>Graphical Summary

Sec 2- 35
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 Summary Report for EX 8-5
Anderson-Darling Normality Test
A-Squared 0.21
P-Value 0.838
Mean 13.714
StDev 3.554
Variance 12.628
Skewness -0.015132
Kurtosis -0.751370
N 22
Minimum 7.500
1st Quartile 11.400
Median 13.850
3rd Quartile 16.025
Maximum 19.800
95% Confidence Interval for Mean
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 12.138 15.289
95% Confidence Interval for Median
11.400 15.411
95% Confidence Interval for StDev
2.734 5.078

95% Confidence Intervals

Mean

Median

Sec11
2- 12 13 14 15 16 36
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-4 Confidence Interval on the Variance and
Standard Deviation of a Normal Distribution

Definition (Eq. 8-17)

37
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-4 Confidence Interval on the Variance and
Standard Deviation of a Normal Distribution

Figure 8-8 Probability density

functions of several 2
distributions.

38
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 k=19 , alpha is 0.95
chi-square is 10.12

Sec 2- 39
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-4 Confidence Interval on the Variance and
Standard Deviation of a Normal Distribution
Definition (Eq. 8-19)

40
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-4 Confidence Interval on the Variance and
Standard Deviation of a Normal Distribution

One-Sided Confidence Bounds (Eq. 8-20)

41
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-4 Confidence Interval on the Variance and
Standard Deviation of a Normal Distribution
Example 8-6

42
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 Minitab
• Stat>Basic Statistics>1 Variance

Sec 2- 43
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
Sec 2- 44
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-5 A Large-Sample Confidence Interval For a
Population Proportion
Normal Approximation for Binomial Proportion

The quantity p(1 − p) / n is called the standard error of the point estimator P̂ .

45
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-5 A Large-Sample Confidence Interval For a
Population Proportion (Eq. 8-23)

46
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-5 A Large-Sample Confidence Interval For a
Population Proportion
Example 8-7

47
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
• Stat>Basic Statistics> 1 proportion

Sec 2- 48
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
Sec 2- 49
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 8-5 A Large-Sample Confidence Interval For a
Population Proportion

Choice of Sample Size (Eq. 8-24 & 25)

The sample size for a specified value E is given by

An upper bound on n is given by

50
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-5 A Large-Sample Confidence Interval For a
Population Proportion
Example 8-8

51
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-5 A Large-Sample Confidence Interval For a
Population Proportion
One-Sided Confidence Bounds (Eq. 8-26)

52
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
8-6 Guidelines for Constructing Confidence
Intervals

53
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 Road Map

Sec 2- 54
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 8-7 Tolerance and Prediction Intervals

8-7.1 Prediction Interval for Future Observation (Eq. 8-27)

The prediction interval for Xn+1 will always be longer than the confidence interval for .

55
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 8-7 Tolerance and Prediction Intervals

Example 8-9

56
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.
 Important Terms & Concepts of Chapter 8

Chi-squared distribution Large sample confidence

Confidence coefficient interval
Confidence interval 1-sided confidence bounds
Confidence interval for a: Precision of parameter
– Population proportion estimation
– Mean of a normal Prediction interval
distribution Tolerance interval
– Variance of a normal
distribution
2-sided confidence interval
Confidence level t distribution
Error in estimation
Chapter 8 Summary 60
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, by Montgomery and Runger.