24th Gaes Report
24th Gaes Report
Executive Survey
Main findings 04
The global outlook 06
Powertrains 09
Digital consumers 15
Supply chains 19
Technology 23
What to do now 30
Respondent profile 32
KPMG contacts 35
Interact with the data questions will help determine how companies succeed
in the coming years. We believe that a dazzling future
Readers can go to our website to interact with the for the automotive business—with amazing products,
data and view graphical results by country, company more delighted consumers, and a positive impact
type and job title. Explore now on the planet—is still in view. But getting there will
require overcoming near-term challenges.
1
KPMG International, “Place your billion-dollar bets wisely: Powertrain strategies for the post-ICE automotive industry” (December 2022)
2
KPMG International, “23rd Annual Global Automotive Executive Survey” (July 2021)
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 3
Main findings
The global outlook
Powertrains
3
KPMG International, “Place your billion-dollar bets wisely: Powertrain strategies for the post-ICE automotive industry” (July 2021)
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 4
Digital consumers
Supply chains
Technology
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 5
The global outlook
Executives worldwide are less confident than before that 32 percent to 10 percent. Confidence also fell (but less
the industry will achieve more profitable growth over the sharply) in the US and Western Europe.
next five years. Overall, just 34 percent of executives
Suppliers were the most downbeat group. The share
said they are extremely confident that they can achieve
of respondents from supplier firms who said they are
profitable growth in the next five years versus 41 percent in
extremely confident about achieving profitable growth
the previous year. Among Japanese executives, the share
tumbled from 55 percent to 23 percent.
who were “extremely confident” fell 22 points, from
Industry confidence in profitable growth: Breakdown for respondents rating extremely confident
10% 24%
US China
Extremely confident Extremely confident
48% 28%
43% 36%
2022 2023
This change in sentiment is remarkable. Just a year market, demand has weakened and some players may
ago, executives were excited about the prospects for come under extreme pressure as competition intensifies.
transforming the industry with new kinds of cars. Now,
This year, executives seem less concerned about the
they remain optimistic, but they are more sober about how
economy than last year. The share of US respondents who
difficult it will be to manage the transition and preserve or
said that they are extremely concerned about the impact
increase profits.
of high interest rates, energy prices, and inflation fell from
The reasons for concern are clear. Companies have made 35 percent in 2022 to 27 percent in 2023. Among German
huge bets on electric propulsion and are increasingly executives the share of extremely concerned respondents
concerned about near-term headwinds that could postpone fell from 30 percent to 16 percent.
the payoff. While a flood of new EV models is coming to
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 6
Achieving profitability in a highly competitive
and rapidly evolving market will require
car makers to remain agile and innovative.
Besides shaping brand recognition,
manufacturers need to invest in cost
optimization strategies, including supply chain
efficiency, AI-infused manufacturing, and
the reduction of battery production costs, to
ensure healthy revenue streams. Ultimately,
the companies that can deliver high-quality
BEVs at an affordable price, while maintaining
a healthy brand value, can emerge as the
margin winners in the market.
The picture is different in China. The share of auto about the impact of high interest rates, energy costs,
executives who are extremely concerned about the and inflation, the share of Chinese executives who are
economy rose from 10 percent to 14 percent. extremely confident that profits will grow over the next
Yet, while Chinese executives are more concerned five years has risen.
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 7
Despite economic uncertainty, many executives still these expectations are realistic. With rising competition
expect car prices to continue to rise. Two-thirds of and declining inflationary pressure, their ability to charge
automakers anticipate price increases of 5 to 10 percent in more for their cars in 2024 may be limited.
2024. But automakers should consider carefully whether
13%
Up 5%–10%
64%
Similar to today
18%
Down 5%–10%
4%
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 8
Powertrains
Two years ago, when we asked what percentage of new According to our survey, China is expected to have the
car sales would be EVs in 2030, we got a huge range of highest penetration of EVs in 2030—36 percent of new car
responses, from as low as 20 percent to as much as 80 sales. Respondents expect penetration in the US, Japan, and
percent. This year, the range of estimates has narrowed Western Europe to reach 30 to 33 percent. Penetration is
considerably, indicating that executives have developed expected to be slower in India and Brazil, with sales limited
a more mature—and realistic—view of how quickly EV by poor electricity infrastructure and lower incomes. The
penetration will occur. EV market share gains are also a estimate of EV penetration by executives in our survey are far
function of slower growth in overall auto sales—EV sales below those of clean energy advocates. The Rocky Mountain
are growing rapidly, but total sales are plateauing.5 Institute in late 2023 predicted that EVs would account for
more than two-thirds of global auto sales by 2030.6
The EV penetration outlook is maturing—with less variation in estimates market share for 2030
By 2030, what percentage of new vehicles sales do you believe will be battery-powered (excluding hybrids) within each market?
Estimated EV market share in 2030
Mean estimate of EV penetration by market Distribution by market: Mean, median, and range
China
36% 100
USA
33% 80
% of responses
Japan
60
32%
Western Europe 40
30%
20
India
20%
0
Brazil Brazil China India Japan USA Western
Europe
19% Mean value Median value Range value
When asked which companies they expect to dominate the the company’s assembly plant opened in Berlin in March
market for battery-electric vehicles in 2030, Tesla came out 2022. In 2023, Tesla’s Model Y was set to be the biggest
on top, stretching its lead considerably as the perceived selling model in Europe—of all powertrain types. In Japan,
number one. BMW is a distant second, and Audi is third. Toyota is making rapid headway, while China’s BYD is now a
Mercedes-Benz is fifth, followed by BYD. Toyota has moved force to be reckoned with outside its domestic market.
up to seventh place.
There still seems to be a good deal of fear and uncertainty
The shift in perception is particularly marked in Western about who can make it into the top ten—and who can
Europe, where 148 executives now expect Tesla to rank secure a profitable share of market. Apple, which has
first or second in 2030, compared with only 66 and 57 not even confirmed that it will enter the market, is now
respectively for BMW and Audi. European companies used expected to be in fourth place by 2030 (up from eighth
to be skeptical of Tesla’s market power, but that changed after in the previous year’s survey).
5
KPMG International, “Automotive: In the midst of global transformation” ( August 2023)
6
Green Car Reports, Stephen Edelstein (September 22, 2023)
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 9
Tesla still reinforcing dominance in electric vehicles in Western Europe
Looking out to 2030, which of the following companies do you think will be the market leaders in battery electric vehicles?
OEM executives and suppliers are generally much less EV manufacturers and 87 percent of Chinese executives in
optimistic this year than last about when BEVs, without our survey expect cost parity at or before 2030. The Rocky
subsidies, will reach cost parity with internal combustion Mountain Institute predicts that large EVs sold in the US
engine (ICE) vehicles. The number of OEMs that say this will achieve price parity in 2026 and smaller vehicles in
point will be reached by 2030 has gained ten percentage 2029; it predicts parity in China by 2025.7
points. Chinese companies are already the most efficient
Estimated date of cost parity between EVs and ICE vehicles is moving further out
When do you believe battery electric vehicles will reach cost/affordability parity with ICE without any subsidies?
17%
They already have
3%
By 2025 19%
13%
36%
By 2030 46%
23%
By 2035 20%
5%
After 2035 13%
Never 4%
Don’t know
2%
2022 2023
7
Green Car Reports, Stephen Edelstein (September 22, 2023)
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 10
This year we saw stronger support for subsidies and Support for subsidies is stronger,
incentives among executives. The share of respondents especially in Europe
favoring direct subsidies grew from 75 percent in the Some governments are providing direct consumer subsidies
previous year’s survey to 84 percent in the current edition. for electric vehicles. Do you agree with this policy?
The increase is most marked in Western Europe, where Support for EV subsidies in the automotive industry
automakers feel the heat of competition from China and Yes
industry leaders are calling for subsidies to match the ones in 75%
the US. The share of European executives favoring subsidies 84%
rose from 65 percent in the prior survey to 84 percent in the
No
latest edition.
21%
12%
Don’t know
4%
4%
2022 2023
31%
27%
Don’t know
2%
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 11
Another perennial concern about EV uptake is the state positioned to own and operate EV charging stations,
of the charging infrastructure. The who, how, and when the answers were nearly evenly spit between dedicated
of infrastructure buildout still seem to be unresolved charging-network players, electric utilities, followed by
questions. For example, when we asked who is best Tesla and oil companies.
The charging market is up for grabs, but Tesla has a strong position
Who is best positioned to own and operate electric vehicle charging stations?
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 12
In today’s market, Tesla is the charging leader, with its own charging stations are fast, convenient and tend to be in
network of superchargers in prime locations. The network safe areas.
is so effective that other EV makers have made deals to
Pressure to build an effective charging network will only
use Tesla’s charging stations.
grow, because car owners are becoming increasingly
This is another example of the changes that automakers demanding about charge times in secure locations. For
continue to wrestle with. It’s not enough to build example, 83 percent of US survey respondents say that
profitable cars—EV competitors must also make sure their consumers want an 80 percent charge in no more than 30
customers have access to charging infrastructure. Tesla’s minutes, up from 65 percent in the previous year.
10 minutes 6%
10%
17%
20 minutes
30%
43%
30 minutes
42%
26%
45 minutes
11%
8%
60 minutes
6%
2022 2023
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 13
As to where charging stations will be located, this will However, in densely populated areas—where car owners
largely depend on where car owners live. If they have a don’t have access to personal chargers—home charging
house and a garage, they will charge their EVs at home. may not be an option.
23%
% of responses
60
Apartment garage or parking lot
18% 40
At work
17% 20
On the street
0
14%
Apartment At work Don’t know On the Public or Single
Don’t know garage or street private family
parking lot charging home/
5% stations garage
As noted, while companies focus on battery-powered EVs, investment in hydrogen fuel cells as well as advanced ICE
they are also continuing to look at other powertrain options. technology and alternative fuels. However, more than a
When it comes to the expectations for future capital third of executives say they are going to invest less than
expenditure, the two most-favored areas for investment are before in gas- and diesel-powered engines.
BEVs and hybrids. But they are maintaining or increasing
Gasoline/diesel ICE
35% 21% 41% 4%
(including turbocharging)
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 14
Digital consumers
Consumers are perceived to be changing their priorities
when it comes to buying a car. Driving performance
remains the most important feature (cited as very or For consumers, best experiences become
extremely important by 80 percent of global respondents). their expectations, so translating their mobile
But a seamless and hassle-free customer experience has communications and entertainment choices into
moved up to second place. The increase was particularly the car environment needs to feel intuitive and of
marked in the US, where the share of respondents saying high quality in order for car makers to capitalize
a seamless experience is extremely important jumped on these new revenue streams.
from 24 percent to 39 percent.
Richard Peberdy
Among dealers globally, the rise was even sharper. They Partner, Head of Automotive, KPMG in the UK
can see that consumers are looking for a simple digital
experience, starting with research and evaluation through
purchase and ownership.
Automotive executive insights: The top consumer priorities in car purchasing over the next five years
2022 2023
Data privacy and security 4% 20% 38% 36% 7% 16% 36% 39%
Not at all important Slightly important Moderately important Very important Extremely important
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 15
While customer experience is recognized as increasingly 69 percent of new cars will be sold directly to consumers
important, the importance of brand image is falling. Brand through online retail platforms or by automakers. Even
image was seen as the sixth most important factor for traditional dealers believe this to be the case.
consumers, down from third place in our previous year’s
survey. The decline is particularly marked among OEM In 2030, the industry expects more than
executives, falling from 80 percent saying it is very or two-thirds of sales to be non-dealer
extremely important to 65 percent. In 2030, what percent of new cars will be sold directly to
consumers by automakers or nontraditional channels in your
This is a sign that the market for BEVs is becoming home market?
less novel. An increasing number of manufacturers are Projected distribution channels for new car sales in 2030
producing electric vehicles, and Tesla, the leader, is Dealerships (traditional channel)
now regarded as a mainstream car maker. As a result,
consumers have more car makes to choose from and are 31%
becoming more discerning in their attitude to the new cars
on offer. Direct to consumer sales from automakers (Tesla model)
Many automakers are contemplating selling additional concerned about delivering subscription services. But
features and services on monthly subscription plans, but captive finance companies are more confident they can
they are less confident than before that consumers will be bundle subscriptions into innovative finance plans that
willing to pay extra for this. OEM executives are especially consumers will agree to.
23%
Very confident
41%
Moderately confident
23%
Slightly confident
9%
4%
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 16
The industry—both incumbents and newcomers—is But large tech companies, especially Apple (CarPlay) and
still counting on new revenue streams. Automakers are Google (Android) are already embedded in cars’ software.
expected to be best positioned to capture new revenue The automakers and the tech firms will have to fight for
streams from opportunities such as self-driving technology, their share of revenue, as other new companies enter the
infotainment, cybersecurity, and even gaming. market to sell their in-car services.
Automotive executive insights: Potential leaders in software defined vehicle revenue streams
462
274
234
195 191 183
158 157
129
99
rs le s / rs gy on on ce ng
ke pp y) aler on
nti on) p lie olo rs ati e) ati T, r an es mi nt
ma le / A la De e up h n e v i g z n i c & s u ni
a
G me
to og CarP rev cti S ec op Na (Wa mu s (AT zon) In mpa
Au o / ft p prote y t vel s m r tai
n
G to e
(Th er art de firm Co arrie Veri co fo
dA
u dp c ile, in
o rity cyb Th
ir b
dri cu o
(An Se T-M
Ranking: 1 2
Consumers are increasingly savvy and demanding about the technology in cars. Manufacturers should
stay ahead of their competitors in offering the latest equipment in autonomous vehicles, advanced
connectivity features, and enhanced safety technologies.
Vinodkumar Ramachandran
Partner, Head of Business Consulting, KPMG in India
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 17
One potentially lucrative area may be insurance. Based on These data-driven revenue streams will not materialize if
the massive amounts of data collected from connected consumers are not confident that automakers will protect
autos, auto executives are becoming more confident that their privacy and data. Following one massive data breach
they can compete directly with insurance companies. The in 2023, the share of survey respondents who believe
share of executives who expect automakers to succeed in consumers will trust automakers with their data has
insurance has gone up from 7 percent to 28 percent. The plunged from 80 percent to 40 percent. The proportion
success of Tesla encourages them to believe that they can who thought consumers would trust tech companies most
make more on selling insurance than just selling data to more than doubled to 27 percent.
insurers.
Insurance is seen as another likely Automakers are not as trusted as tech
source of revenue companies for guarding data
Do you think automakers will successfully participate Whom do you think a consumer would trust most to safeguard
in the insurance market? If so, how? the data generated by the vehicle?
Predictions on automaker participation in insurance market Who consumers trust in safeguarding vehicle data
Yes, by partnering with existing insurance companies players 8% 9%
43% Supplier Government
12%
Yes, by competing directly with existing insurance companies Retailer/car
28% dealer
27%
Yes, by selling driver and vehicle data to insurance companies Information,
Communication,
24% and Technology
21% companies
OEM/vehicle
No manufacturer
6% 9%
13% Mobility solutions
No one except providers
herself/himself
Despite the well-publicized data breach, 68 percent of percent the year before. Automakers are realizing it is their
respondents say automakers have adequate cybersecurity brand image that is at stake. Data security must therefore
and customer data protection. But this is a decline from 80 be a critical risk to focus on.
Continuity of supply concerns for key commodities/components over the next five years
China Only 28% very and All excluding China 49% very and
extremely concerned extremely concerned
Lithium, cobalt, nickel, and 22% 33% 17% 11% 17% 5% 16% 30% 32% 17%
other battery components
Oil and Gas and 33% 17% 22% 28% 8% 21% 30% 29% 13%
other fossil fuels
Rare earth elements 28% 17% 28% 17% 11% 5% 17% 33% 26% 18%
Specialty light
weight materials 22% 33% 17% 11% 17% 20% 39% 23% 14%
Specialty metals 17% 28% 28% 17% 11% 24% 33% 29% 10%
Steel, aluminum,
copper, etc. 44% 6% 22% 17% 11% 5% 32% 29% 26% 8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Not at all concerned Slightly concerned Moderately concerned Very concerned Extremely concerned
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 19
Since the disruptions of the pandemic and ongoing As was reflected in the previous year’s survey results,
geopolitical tensions, companies have spent heavily on companies are trying to move to a “just in case” approach
locking up raw material supplies, with direct investments, to supply chains to become more resilient to disruptions.
joint ventures with component manufacturers, and stakes Executives are talking about using more hedging to manage
in mining. Slower growth in BEV sales may give car makers commodity prices and bringing more production in-house.
breathing space to strengthen their supply chains further. Overall, however, executives are becoming less worried
about their supply chains, as the shock of the supply
Around the world, companies are employing a range of
interruptions that occurred in 2020 and 2021 wears off.
methods to strengthen and diversify their supply chains.
Holding more
2% 9% 26% 39% 24%
inventory/safety stock
Not at all important Slightly important Moderately important Very important Extremely important
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 20
For similar reasons, executives are somewhat less worried Forty-seven percent of executives are very or extremely
about the volatility of commodity prices than they were concerned, compared with 58 percent in the year before.
in the year prior, although the anxiety level is still high.
16%
Very concerned
31%
Moderately concerned
33%
Slightly concerned
14%
Sourcing new channels for materials is only one of the tools for introducing redundancy into the supply chain.
Offsetting volatile prices with financial hedging instruments such as futures, options, and swaps, organizations
can offset price risk and help create a more predictable supply chain.
Seung-Hoon Wi Partner, Industrial Manufacturing, KPMG in South Korea
There are wide geographical differences, however. In the Labor shortages remain a concern
US, 57 percent of vehicle manufacturers and suppliers How concerned are you that labor shortages or wage increases
are very or extremely concerned about volatile prices, will adversely impact your business in the next 12 months?
compared with 75 percent the year before. By contrast, Outlook on labor shortages and wage increases in 2024
the number in China who are very concerned jumped from Extremely concerned
4 percent to 26 percent, due to trade worries, geopolitics,
15%
and the decline of China’s Renminbi against the dollar.
When asked how concerned they are about labor Very concerned
shortages and wage increases in the next 12 months, the 32%
overall level of anxiety has remained around 50 percent.
Moderately concerned
Among CEOs, though, the number that are very or
extremely concerned has dropped to 41 percent from 60 29%
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 21
In the face of competitors investing in mining to secure vital commodity supplies,
automakers must take a future-oriented view and explore alternative options that
reduce their exposure to supply chain risks. Long-term supplier agreements with
multiple producers could prove to be a more cost-effective means of safeguarding
future supply than traditional vertical integration.
Goran Mazar Partner, EMA & German Head of ESG and Automotive,
KPMG in Germany
Only 16 percent think the cost and complexity of tariffs, Has the trend to more regulation peaked?
trade rules, and regulations will increase significantly in the Do you believe the cost and complexity of tariffs, trade rules, and
next five years, slightly below the level of concern cited regulations will increase or decrease in the next five years?
in the previous survey. The decline is likely to be due to a
Expectations for changes in trade rules and regulations
perception that growth of regulation may have peaked—after
Significantly increase
the introduction of new measures that affect the automotive
sector such as the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the 16%
EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), a carbon Somewhat increase
tax on imported goods.8
50%
Only 9 percent of US OEMs believe there will be a significant
Remain about the same
increase in regulations, against 44 percent the year before.
26%
Somewhat decrease
The IRA provides massive incentives for EVs 7%
sold and produced in the US, but the rules are Significantly decrease
complex and there is still confusion about how
<1%
they apply. Getting this right is critical. There are
billions at stake.
George Zaharatos
Principal, Tax, KPMG in the US
8
KPMG International, “Impact of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism” (July 2022)
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 22
Technology
There is a growing sentiment that automakers are less
prepared for advanced technologies, such as artificial
intelligence, digital twins, and advanced robotics, than in
previous years. Those saying they are very or extremely
well prepared dropped by 23 percentage points. Companies
are realizing that it is extremely difficult to excel in many
fields and to take advantage of a range of technological
breakthroughs requires immense capabilities.
R&D across a range of technologies is regarded as jumps from fifth to first place year on year, as cars evolve
critically important, a finding little different from the year into “supercomputers on wheels.” China and Germany,
prior. But marked differences occur when considering by contrast, place more emphasis on new powertrain
individual countries. In the US, advanced computing technologies.
20%
40
Connected vehicle technologies
17% 20%
20
Vehicle light weighting
16%
0
Other areas
<1% Advanced Connected New Other Other Vehicle
ADAS vehicle powertrain advanced areas light
technology technologies computing weighting
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 24
Regarding investment in powertrain R&D, there is, again, to hedging EV bets in wealthy economies, executives
a narrow dispersion among the seven categories, and for know they cannot afford to miss out on opportunities in
the same reason. Car makers are hedging their big EV bets huge markets such as India, Indonesia, and Africa, where
among a plethora of options and hybrid technologies have BEVs are going to take a long time to arrive in large
jumped from fourth to second place overall and, in the US, numbers. In China and Europe, though, consumers are
are tied for first place with advanced batteries. In addition demanding more and more electric vehicles.
eFuels 12%
Internal combustion
12%
technologies
Car executives continue to view large tech companies as potential disruptors in the OEM market. However,
it is equally important for executives to plan for the potential disruption of smaller-scale suppliers. Proactively
identifying and cultivating partnerships with up-and-coming suppliers can help address critical strategic areas,
from safety and security to advanced sensor technology and autonomous capabilities.
Investing in, or partnering with, new technology companies Tech partnerships are critical
should be part of every player’s toolkit. Changes in car Are you considering making investments/acquisitions/partnerships
technology are occurring too fast to ignore, and pursuing in new technology companies in the next several years?
these opportunities frequently requires established Automotive executives’ plans for tech partnerships and acquisitions
companies to partner with emerging entrepreneurs. 17%
Eighty-four percent of executives recognize this, little No, most of
our technology
changed from the previous year. investments will be
internally focused
There are geographical differences, though. Germany is
emphasizing more in-house development than external 52%
32% Yes, but
acquisition, similar to Japan. US executives see external only on an
Yes, this is a critical
investments as more important and in China, the appetite part of our strategy, opportunistic
and we will be basis
for external acquisitions and partnerships is even stronger. making significant
investments
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 25
The survey shows that investment in auto startups Startups continue to play a key role
remains strong. This is particularly true in China, where In the next 10 years, what do you think the impact of startup
the proportion who thinks that startups will have a major companies will be?
market impact has risen 15 points. In Japan, the number
Auto executive outlook on the impact of startups
soared by 22 points.
Major impact one or more will take significant market
share causing a reordering of the industry
32%
Startups are the global engines for innovation
acceleration and the EV ecosystem has some Moderate impact A few will find some success, but will be eventually
bought out by established automakers or will remain niche players
tremendous potential to catalyze significant
63%
disruption. EV technologies continue to attract strong
interest from investors and are a key area to watch
No impact most, if not all, will fail
within the broader cleantech and energy markets.
5%
Conor Moore
Global Head of KPMG Private Enterprise,
KPMG International
More than half of executives are very or extremely likely Auto execs say will likely divest
to divest non-strategic parts of their businesses in the non-strategic assets
next several years, little changed from the year before. How likely are you to divest non-strategic parts of your
As noted in our recent papers “Finding value as ICE businesses in the next several years?
melts: Difficult choices for auto parts suppliers” and Mode
“Automotive in the midst of global transformation,” the EV Likelihood of divesting non-strategic assets in the near future
transition and the beginning of a decline in sales of ICE Extremely likely S
vehicles will involve corporate restructuring.9, 10 We expect 16%
companies to divest assets that are overly dependent
Very likely
on ICE markets and continue to invest in electrification.
37%
Some players may try to consolidate ICE businesses as
the market declines. Moderately likely
30%
Slightly likely
12%
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 26
One manifestation of new technology is autonomous ride The proportion of executives who expect this to occur in
hailing and delivery, and, in this respect, there is a growing the US, Japan, China, and Germany by 2030 rose by 4 to
expectation of a faster introduction in major cities than 9 percentage points. The expectation of this happening in
in previous surveys. Seeing is believing: more and more India by then is considerably lower.
cities are allowing autonomous taxis to operate.
Automotive executive timeline predictions got autonomous ride hailing/delivery in major cities
0%
0 2020% 4040% 6060% 80%
80 100%
100
Value: Before 2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 After 2035 Never Don’t know/no opinion
When it comes to autonomous vehicles, there is no doubt Tesla is the clear leader in autonomy,
which car company is seen as the leader. Fifty-five percent followed by local players across geographies
say Tesla, virtually unchanged from the previous year, likely Who do you think will be the leader in your country in
reflecting the company’s success in winning approval for autonomous vehicles?
its autonomous driving technology in many countries. Anticipated leaders in autonomous vehicle technology
The jostling among the runners-up occurs in individual
countries, with Huawei (China), Cruise (US), and Woven by Tesla 55%
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 27
Most executives believe more tech companies will enter it is now followed very closely by Google. Major global
the industry with their own branded vehicles. Apple tech brands such as Samsung are also seen as likely
remains the number one choice, with 67 percent, but competitors in automotive markets.
Apple is expected to enter the auto market—and other tech giants, too
Do you think the following major technology companies will enter the auto market with their own branded vehicles?
A large majority believe new automakers can succeed with Interest in asset-light manufacturing
an “asset light” strategy, even though OEMs are finding remains strong
that working with contract manufacturers is extremely Many new automakers are pursuing “asset-light” strategies
challenging. Nevertheless, new entrants have opted for using third parties to manufacture their vehicles. Do you believe
automakers can succeed using contract manufacturing?
contract manufacturing with companies such as Foxconn
of Taiwan, which also makes iPhones for Apple. Perspectives on the success of asset-light strategies
10%
Don't know
European car manufacturers are increasingly
concerned about Chinese competitors dominating
16%
the lower-priced segments. To stay competitive, No
they should take a forward-looking approach in
streamlining their manufacturing processes and
reimagining their supply chains.
73%
Angelika Huber-Straßer Yes
Managing Partner, KPMG in Germany
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 28
Regarding flying cars, known as electric vertical takeoff and with their responses last year. But in China, there is a
landing aircraft (eVTOLs), executives are tending to push higher proportion than elsewhere who believe eVTOLs will
the prospect of eVTOLs further into the future, compared operate in their cities before 2030.
100 100%
97%
92%
80
73%
60
51%
40
20 38%
14% 22% 19%
14% 3%
0 5%
Before 2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 After 2040 Never Don’t know/no opinion
Percent of responses Cumulative percent of responses
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 29
What to do now
There is more excitement in the automotive industry today than at any time since the early years of the
industry. New powertrains, new ways of building cars, and new customer expectations are driving a far-reaching
transformation. Consumers have a growing array of buying options, while manufacturers press ahead with
diverse R&D efforts, not just in EVs, but also in hybrid technologies, hydrogen fuel cells, and alternative fuels. At
the same time, convergence with the technology industry will only accelerate. It is a time of rapid innovation, big
bets, and big risks. There will be winners and there will be losers as the automotive business transforms.
Faced with so many challenges and opportunities, executives should recalibrate strategies—and act.
These are four priorities for top leaders to better position them in the altered automotive business.
Hedge your bets—and commit to a future Find the collaborators you need
vision Car manufacturers have tended to go it alone when it
There are so many variables in the car market right now comes to developing automotive technologies, often
that CEOs could be forgiven for throwing up their hands in with unspectacular results. Given the array of business
exasperation. But they have to act. Manufacturers should opportunities and the limited pool of skills, auto
hedge their bets about the trajectory of both the internal companies have little choice but to look outside for the
combustion engine and all the alternatives. However, ideas and know-how they need to supercharge their
if they spread themselves too thin they risk losing to R&D operation. Nobody can do it all on their own.
competitors that more successfully predict the future and How effective is your ability to work the ecosystem
focus more narrowly. The answer, then, is to entertain and find alliances and business partnerships?
heretical theories, employ a diverse array of talent with
different perspectives, and make your best bets.
All these trends make life exceedingly complicated for auto executives.
They must navigate a maze of choices to come out on the winning side.
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 30
How KPMG can help
KPMG firms provide audit, tax, and advisory services to
automotive companies around the world. KPMG firms Automotive/mobility clients
are leaders in delineating critical trends in the automotive Our audit, tax, and advisory teams serve:
sector—mobility, autonomy, electrification, and turning
• Major OEMs
them into actionable strategies. Our global automotive
• Tier 1 suppliers
practice helps top companies in the industry plan and
execute strategies to make the most of these trends. • Aftermarket players
• Mobility providers
Our data-driven approach allows us to quantify the impact
• EV/AV start-ups
of trends such as mobility for automakers, dealers and
other players so they can identify and prioritize emerging • Institutional investors
opportunities. KPMG professionals then assist clients
in defining technology investment and development Examples of recent projects
roadmaps to pursue these opportunities. • Market sizing and entry options development
In addition, KPMG firms support clients with operating- for EV and mobility as a service (MaaS)
model and business transformations to prepare their • Tax strategies re-imagined for the new
organizations for building new types of products and doing mobility market
business in new ways. For example, KPMG is a recognized
• Scenario development for regulatory changes
leader in supply chain strategy.
based on AV/EV adoption
• Analysis of industry supply chain shifts and
future options
• Development of vehicle subscription operating
models based on ROI simulation
• Retail innovation and customer experience
transformation
Source: KPMG International, KPMG recognized as a Supply Chain Pacesetter” (March 2023)
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 31
Respondent profile
KPMG conducted a survey of 1,041 executives across the automotive and adjacent industries
in October 2023. Almost a quarter were CEOs and another quarter were C-level executives. The
remainder were heads of department and business units or functional managers. Ten percent worked
in OEMs, 7 percent in suppliers and 9 percent in dealerships. The rest worked in car-related financial
services, in automotive technologies, and in the provision of charging infrastructure.
In terms of corporate size, 323 worked at companies with at least US$1 billion in annual sales, 238
were in companies with US$500 million to US$1 billion in revenue, and 459 were at firms with under
US$500 million. A total of 30 countries and territories were represented from Africa, Asia, Europe,
Latin America, Middle East, and North America. The two largest pools of respondents were in the US
(277) and in China (154).
12%
Business Unit
Head/Functional Head
24%
C-level Executive
24%
CEO/President/Chairman
5%
New
4%
10% Mobility 4%
technologies
OEM/vehicle start-up Transport
components
25% manufacturer company
supplier
Information and communication
technology company
3%
4% OEM captive 4%
7% Tier 1 supplier financial Truck
Energy supplier/charging services Manufacturer
infrastructure provider company
3%
Non-captive financial
Not applicable
Independently owned 3%
automotive dealer 2%
OEM owned dealer Mobility start-up
company
Note: Percentages do not total to 100 due to rounding
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 32
Which of the following best describes your company’s annual global revenue in 2022?
Number of responses
Over US$10 billion
88
US$1 billion to US$10 billion
235
US$500 million to US$1 billion
238
US$100 million to US$500 million
271
Less than US$100 million
188
Not Applicable
21
9 Turkey
80 Germany
277 United States
7 Czech Republic
63 UK
32 Canada South America
43 France
31 Mexico 33 Brazil
43 Italy
China 9 Argentina
40 Spain
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 33
About the
author
Gary Silberg
Global Head of Automotive
KPMG International
Acknowledgments
This survey would not be possible without the
collaboration from colleagues around the world who
generously contributed their support, knowledge and
insights into the planning, analysis, writing and production
of this report.
Thank you to: Adam Ashenfelter, Alex Clayborn,
Ashley Peck, Bala Lakshman, Brian O’Neill, Dave Royce,
Gary Chung, Geoff Lewis, Gia Gustovich, Lara Volpe,
Lily Ainapure, Michael Miller, Pranya Yamin, Tara Nelson,
Tony Magrogan, and Yoshi Suganuma
Global
Gary Silberg Ashley Peck Bernd Oppold Scott Stelk
Global Head of Automotive Global Automotive Partner, Advisory Partner, Audit
KPMG International Sector Executive KPMG International KPMG International
+1 312 665 1916 KPMG International +49 174 3368139 +1 917318 6933
[email protected] +1 770 710 7262 [email protected] [email protected]
[email protected]
Peter Schalk
Partner, Tax
KPMG International
+49 174 3138574
[email protected]
Americas
Per Edin Lenny LaRocca Ricardo Roa James Walker
Partner, Advisory Partner, Advisory Partner, Automotive Leader Principal, Advisory
KPMG in the US KPMG in the US KPMG in Brazil KPMG in the US
+1 650 605 5653 +1 810 962 9122 +551139406596 +1 248 766 7390
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Asia Pacific
Megumu Komikado Norbert Meyring Vinod Ramachandran Seung-Hoon Wi
Partner, Automotive Partner, Head of Partner, Head of Partner, Industrial
KPMG in Japan Industrial Manufacturing Business Consulting Manufacturing
+81335485111 KPMG China KPMG in India KPMG in South Korea
megumu.komikado +862122122707 +912230901930 +82221120620
@jp.kpmg.com [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Laurent Des Places Marc Duchevet Begoña Cristeto Blasco Fabrizio Ricci
Partner, Head of Automotive Partner, Advisory Partner, Automotive Partner, Advisory
KPMG in France KPMG in France KPMG in Spain KPMG in Italy
+33155686877 +33155687152 +34914513223 +3902676431
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Some or all of the services described herein may not be permissible for KPMG audit clients and their affiliates or related entities.
kpmg.com
The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to
provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in
the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.
© 2024 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved.
KPMG International Limited is a private English company limited by guarantee. KPMG International Limited and its related entities do not provide services to clients.
For more detail about our structure, please visit kpmg.com/governance.
The KPMG name and logo are trademarks used under license by the independent member firms of the KPMG global organization.
Designed by DAS Design Center. DASD-2023-14137
Publication name: 24th Annual Global Automotive Executive Survey: Getting real about the EV transition
Publication date: January 2024