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Analysis of Potential Extreme Drought using Integrated Statistical Model

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4th National Conference on Wind & Earthquake Engineering IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 682 (2021) 012043 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/682/1/012043

Analysis of Potential Extreme Drought using Integrated

Statistical Model

N N A Tukimat1, A S Othman1 and S N Rahmat2

1
Faculty of Civil Engineering Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, 26300 Gambang,
Pahang, Malaysia
2
Faculty of Civil Engineering and Environment, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia, 86400
Batu Pahat, Johor, Malaysia

Abstract. Frequent extreme drought especially in urban area is majorly connected

with the changes of the global climate and drastic releases of greenhouse emissions in
the earth system. It becomes significant in identifying how frequent the potential
drought event in the long term and how big its impact to the existence water sources.
Due to this concern, the integrated statistical model has been used to estimate the
potential extreme drought in Pahang state, Malaysia. The Representative
Concentration Pathways in three radiation levels known as RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5 provided by IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) were implemented to
produce the plausible future weather scenarios in the different radiation levels. The
results revealed the climate changes could alter the seasonal trend and intensity with
small rises in average 7%/year (rainfall) and 0.2 oC/decade (temperature). Although
the rainfall was expecting to increase however almost 42% of Pahang state is expected
to receive lower rainfall intensity than the historical annual rainfall. Estimated the
drought events potentially to occur in 20 % from upcoming 80 years with every station
has high probability to drought at least twice times. For the RCPs performances, the
RCP4.5 potentially to produce more frequent drought compared to other RCPs.

1. Introduction
Drought classifies as one of a disaster because it also gives a huge impact to the earth life as big as
flood. Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD) have been reported plenty of calamities events
since year 1900s. At least 12 times of extreme drought have been recorded since year 1951 especially
during South-West monsoon (SW). Even the dry season not something new for Malaysian people,
however the occurrence of this disaster become more frequent compared to 100 years ago. Meanwhile,
the strongest drought were occurred in year 1982 – 1983 and 1997 – 1998 which caused the economic
losses, destroyed of paddy field and fisheries, restriction of recreation activities, air pollutant, water
rationing, and tourism activities. In the year of 2015, the weather pattern in Malaysia during northeast
monsoon (NE) was identically different. Most of the east coast states received low rainfall intensity
and achieving below normal level. Meanwhile the temperature rises time by time up to 35°C as an
early sign of the El-Nino formation in Malaysia. The high temperature encourages the
evapotranspiration (ET) activities and affecting to the water utilization efficiency [1]. It is also
affecting the electricity demand which one of the sources of electricity production were generated by
the hydropower plant [2]. According to Energy Commission Report [3] the demand of electricity is
estimated to increase 3.1% in every year. Thus, the drought event not even effects to the electricity
supply but also gives an impact on the consumer. In fact, the drought in Malaysia is not categorised as

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4th National Conference on Wind & Earthquake Engineering IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 682 (2021) 012043 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/682/1/012043

a major issue because rarely happened in the critical condition (such as El-Nino) and also not involve
with high cost after impact likes flood disaster. However, the dry season nowadays is inconsistently
happened and in longer period. Reported by National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration [4], the
anomaly global surface temperature was fluctuated increases year by year since 1980s, after 200years
of Industrial Revolution which related to the beginning of the climate changes impact. The climate
changes produce many abrupt changes on the water resources affected by the monsoon impact [5].
One of the biggest contributions of greenhouse gases comes from the human activities which
contribute to the changes in the climate’s variability, pattern and extreme event formation [6]. Hence,
the integrated statistical model which combining of Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and
Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) has been applied to investigate the potential extreme drought events
in the long term. The SDSM is one of the climate models that been used to predict the changes of
climate variability in responding to the expected dispersion of greenhouse gases and radiation into the
atmospheric system. This model has potential to generate the reliable results while having limited
sources [7-10]. It uses the Model Output Statistic known as MOS and perfect prog approach to predict
the numerical weather in the short range [11]. The multiple regression equation between large-scale
(predictor) and local climate (predictand) has been built to produce the time series of synthetic daily
weather. There were numerous studies had been conducted to test and prove the reliability of the
models especially in Malaysia [12-15]. Meanwhile the drought indices were determined using SPI
measurement. It uses a statistical relationship in monitoring the deficit of rainfall in a different time
scale. The rainfall distribution must be converted into normal distribution as a control for each location
and period time scale. The rainfall deficit was based on the SPI value. The positive value shows the
higher intensity than median (wet) while negative value shows the lower intensity than the median
(dry). According to [16] and [17], an extreme drought was more presentable in spatial standardization
and SPI method which showed better drought index than other methods. Therefore the integrated of
SDSM-SPI had been applied in estimating the potential trend of drought severity in the long term.

2. Study Area
The focused area of this study was at Pahang State, Malaysia (Figure 1) because the weather trend in
Pahang was influenced by the wind direction and the monsoons. Pahang is the largest state in
Peninsular Malaysia. It was located at Eastern of Malaysia and nearest to the equator. Meanwhile
Temerloh (one of the districts in Pahang state) has been recognised as a centre of Peninsular Malaysia.
Tropical monsoon at Pahang state brings with the series of uniform temperature between 21 °C to 32
°C throughout the year. The dry season occurred during months of January to April meanwhile months
of May to December would be the wettest. The area experienced wet and dry seasons throughout the
year due to its geographical position which located in equator lines. The climatic cycle in the region
are influenced by four seasonal changes, known as North-East (NE) monsoon, SW monsoon, and 2
inter-transition monsoons which influence the monthly rainfall intensity. The average annual rainfall
at Pahang state is 2,540 mm with humidity of 84%.

Figure 1. Rainfall and temperature stations in Pahang state

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4th National Conference on Wind & Earthquake Engineering IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 682 (2021) 012043 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/682/1/012043

3. Methodology
The framework of this study consists of three significant steps as shown in Figure 2. There were
validated the predictand-predictor equations, generated the long-term changes of local climates using
GCMs variables and analysed the probability of extreme drought events in the long term using SDSM-
SPI analysis. The SDSM utilized a linear regression method in built the predictor-predictand
relationship. It consists of two steps: 1) develop the predictor-predictand equation for validation
process and 2) generating the daily weather with considered the level of GHGs and radiation forcing.
The large-scale predictors were provided by two climate groups at the grid box of 28X x 33Y there
were NCEP reanalysis (for validation process) and GCMs (for the long-term generation).

Figure 2. Framework of the study

The GCMs depends on three RCPs which provided by GCM-CanESM2 (AR5) to produce potential
future time series of weather scenarios. The RCPs was based on the level of radiation forcing start
from low (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emissions. The predictor-predictand
equations were developed using multi-linear regression approach for generation the long term climates
at the region. The rainfall (y) on day t can be determined by listed below:

𝑦𝑡 = 𝐹−1[∅𝑍𝑡 ] (1)
𝑍𝑡 = 𝛽0 + Σ𝛽𝑗𝑢̂𝑡 + 𝛽𝑡−1 + 𝜀 (2)

Where 𝐹 is the empirical function of 𝑦𝑡, ∅ is the normal cumulative distribution function, 𝑍𝑡 is the z-
score on day t, 𝛽 is the regression parameter, 𝑢̂𝑡 is normalized predictor and 𝜀 is the variable
parameter. For the rainfall analysis, the equation was transformed to the fourth root to take account for
the skewed nature of the rainfall distribution. Even the statistical downscaling has several limitations
[18], however the SDSM model does not require high computational demand to view the simulation
results but has ability to produce high quality of projection results. These advantages, as a whole, had
made SDSM a reliable tool for climate downscaling and was selected as a downscaling tool to
generate the future climate trend at the study site.

3.1. Drought Assessment using SDSM-SPI Analysis

The drought assessment was analysed based on the daily climate results produced by the SDSM. The
classification of the drought index as shown in Table 1. The drought severity depends on the duration

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4th National Conference on Wind & Earthquake Engineering IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 682 (2021) 012043 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/682/1/012043

of events occurred and its impact size to the society. The drought severity is measured with the
summation of all SPI index during drought period as shown in Equation 1 below:
S = ∑𝑑𝑖=1 SPI𝑖 (3)
Where; S = Drought severity, d = Drought duration, i = Starts with the first month of a drought and
continues until the end of the drought duration. The severe magnitude of the longer drought period
suggests i=1. Next, the Gumbel Extreme Value I was used to determine the probability distribution of
extreme rainfall dataset by:
(4)
where KT = Frequency factor, and T= Return period

The K value is then used in the following equation to produce the magnitude because severity in unit
mm the value need to multiply with time as shown in Equation 3.
XT = μ+Kσ (5)
where; μ = Mean, σ = Standard deviation, and K = Frequency factor
Table 1. SPI classification
Classification Drought Category
>0 Normal
0 to -1 Moderate
-1 to -1.5 Severe
> -1.5 Extreme

3.2. Reliability of the Results using Statistical Analyses

There were 3 significant statistical analyses; mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (R),
and Nash Sutchliffe Efficiency (NSE) have been used to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of the
predictor-predictand equations as shown in Table 2 where Xobs refers to the ith month observed data,
Xest is the ith month estimated data and n is the number of data. The function of MAE is to measure
the accuracy of continuous variables through the average of errors between the two sets of data
representing the whole disparity of two data sets. Meanwhile R and NSE were to evaluate the strength
and efficiency of the predictand-predictor relationship between simulated and observed data.
Table 2. List of statistical analyses
Name Equation

1  X Est  X obs  (6)

%MAE
MAE   ( )  100 
n X obs 

(7)
R

(8)
NSE

4. Results and Discussions

4.1. Climates Simulation and Projection

The performances of the downscaled simulated of monthly rainfall and temperature by SDSM as
shown in Figure 3. The simulated rainfall results were based on the relationship between combination
of these five selected predictors; p_u (zonal velocity), p_v (meridional velocity), p5_u (zonal velocity

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4th National Conference on Wind & Earthquake Engineering IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 682 (2021) 012043 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/682/1/012043

at 500hPa), r850 (specific humidity), and shum (specific humidity) with the local weather series. Each
predictor was selected based on the highest monthly correlation value between predictand-predictor
associations. Based on the correlation performance, the p_u became as a domain predictor variable for
all local stations. Even r850 and shum were not produced higher correlation (in average 0.3) however
the combination of these five selected predictors was successfully able to model relationship with the
local stations. This finding confirms the works of [19] stated the characteristics of specific humidity,
airflow indices, and zonal velocity that are commonly used as the precipitation predictors in the
climate studies. Meanwhile [20] used wind speed, global radiation, and humidity as important
parameters in measuring the weather trend changes. The difference in average between the simulated
results with the historical data over region were in range 0.10 % to 23.7 % with high R and NSE
values more than 0.83 as shown in Figure 4. The simulated result during calibration process have very
good agreement with the historical data but poor performance in the validation process at certain
stations especially at Kechau and Jandabaik stations. Meanwhile the selected predictors for the
temperature were different from the rainfall variables there were p_z (vorticity), p500 (geopotential
height at 500hPa), r500 (relative humidity at 500hPa), shum_850 (specific humidity at 850hPa) and
temp (mean temperature). The temperature was classified as unconditional process which not so
difficult to analyse compared to the rainfall. For the temperature, predictor of p500 became as a main
predictor variable that gives huge impact to the formation of local temperature with the correlation
value of 0.8. Figure 5 and 6 show the calibrated and validated performances for these two temperature
stations. The biases between simulated and historical data were less than 1.9% with R and NSE values
closed to 1.0.

Figure 3. Comparison between simulated result with historical for calibrated (1979 to 1993) and
validated (1994 to 2008) process in 12 rainfall stations (unit in mm/month)

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4th National Conference on Wind & Earthquake Engineering IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 682 (2021) 012043 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/682/1/012043

Calibrated Validated Calibrated Validated

Nash Sutchliffe Efficiency

1.5
Correlation Coefficient

1.5

1.0 1.0

(NSE)
(R)

0.5 0.5

0.0 0.0

KGTEMAIHILIR

KUALAREMAN

PALAS
KERETAPIKRAMBIT

KGJAWI

KGMANCHIS

KGSALONG
JANDABAIK
BHGSELATAN

KECHAU

KUALABERA
KG SERAMBI
KUALAREMAN

PALAS
KERETAPIKRAMBIT

KGTEMAIHILIR
KGJAWI

KGSALONG
KGMANCHIS
JANDABAIK
BHGSELATAN

KECHAU

KUALABERA
KG SERAMBI

Figure 4. Calibrated and validated performances of 12 rainfall stations using statistical analyses

Simulated Historical
Figure 5. Comparison between simulated result with historical for calibrated (1984 to 1998) and
validated (1999 to 2013) process in maximum, mean and minimum temperature (unit in Celsius)

Figure 6. Calibrated and validated performances of temperature using statistical analyses

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4th National Conference on Wind & Earthquake Engineering IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 682 (2021) 012043 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/682/1/012043

4.2. Long Term Climate Generation

Figure 7 shows the average annual spatial distribution throughout Pahang state by three different
RCPs. In general, the pattern of projected rainfalls by these RCPs were consistent throughout Pahang
state with very small variance. The rainfall was expected to increase to 5.5 %, 6.1 %, and 6.7 %
annually by RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively from year 2020 to 2099 (80 years). The
wettest areas were concentrated at eastern Pahang with annual rainfall of 2700 mm/year. It is
consistent with the location of these regions which located nearest to the South China Sea and
monsoon pathways. The temperature can be influenced by the land and sea breezes on the general
wind flow pattern potentially to bring heavier rainfall quantity. Besides, the land topographic
encourages the formation of orographic rain at these regions. All the RCPs projected agreed that the
least areas to receive rainfall amount were focused on the middle part of Pahang state especially at
Bentong, Bera and Pekan with minimum rainfall of 1665 mm/year, 30% lesser than the average
historical annual rainfall. Although the annual rainfall intensity was predicted to rise annually however
almost 42 % of Pahang state was expected to receive rainfall intensity below the historical annual
rainfall which forming in two radiuses; 1) at Northern Pahang including Lipis, southern part of
Cameron Highland, and northern of Raub 2) at middle of Pahang state including Bera, Maran, and
small western part in Pekan. The rainfall intensity at these regions was less than 2000 mm/year only.
Meanwhile the temperature was al expected to rise to 0.2 °C per decade and it is consistent to the
Malaysia Meteorological Department [12] stated the projected temperature in Peninsular Malaysia is
in range of 1.1 °C to 3.0 °C at the end of century with Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) as the warmest season.
RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP8.5

Figure 7. Prediction of average annual rainfall distribution for upcoming 90years by RCP2.6,
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (unit in mm)

4.3. Probability of the Long Term Drought Event

The potential occurrence of the drought in the future year at each region was estimated using
integrated SDSM-SPI model as described by Figure 8. The SPI was analysed based on the cumulative
precipitation of 12 months and were classified based on Table 1. The potential drought event was
evaluated when the SPI reading lower than -1. According to the results, all RCPs claim that more than
80 % of upcoming 80 years are considered as a normal. Meanwhile another 20 % of the predicted
years were drought. Although the percentage occurrence was not too extreme however most of the
stations were highly potential to have drought in the future year at least twice times. As shown in
Figure 8, each RCPs produced diverse percentage of probability drought events at different region.
Each region has inconsistent probability to have the drought chances. Bhg Selatan station at Cameron
Highland as the lowest percentage of drought chances compared to another regions. Cameron
Highland known as a cool area because located at mountainous with the normal annual temperature is
below than 25 °C. For the meantime Kuala Bera station was predicted to receive drought event more
frequent with high probability of 2.2 %, 5.1 %, 9.3 % in extreme, severe, and moderate, respectively.
About >3 % of extreme drought event was potentially to occur at several pointed stations such as

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4th National Conference on Wind & Earthquake Engineering IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 682 (2021) 012043 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/682/1/012043

Palas, Kuantan, Kg Temai Hilir, Kg Salong, and Kg Jawi. Considering the SPI analysis, the RCP4.5
was predicted to produce the highest probability of drought event compared to others RCPs. For
example, in Janda Baik station, extreme drought events were expected more frequent (35 occurrences
in lasting more than 12 months) by RCP4.5 however 12 and 27 occurrences of drought events were
predicted by RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. The critical years that have to be caution were
predicted on year 2026, 2047, 2057, 2073, 2076, 2080 and 2089 which the SPI value drop to -2.
Similar case with Kg Manchis station where the extreme drought predicted by RCP4.5 was slightly
higher (47 occurrences) than estimated by the RCP2.6 (28 occurrences) and RCP8.5 (11 occurrences).
It proven a fact that the higher radiation does not mean to contribute greater changes to the climates.

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4th National Conference on Wind & Earthquake Engineering IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 682 (2021) 012043 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/682/1/012043

Figure 8. Potential annual dry length based on the SDSM-SPI analysis for year 2019 to 2099

5. Conclusion
The identification of the potential drought events in the long-term becomes significant especially for
the water resources management and planning with monitor how frequents the events at each different
region. The application of the integrated SDSM-SPI models was carried out the probability of extreme
events with concerned the climate changes impact. The reliability of the climate projected results
using SDSM model was controlled by less MAE with high R2 and NSE values during calibration and
validation processes. The temperature was well analyzed with less 1.9 % of MAE, R and NSE was
closed to 1.0 due to unconditional process. Unlike to the rainfall analysis which categorized under
conditional process. The calibrated results were successfully to produce good agreement but poor in

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4th National Conference on Wind & Earthquake Engineering IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 682 (2021) 012043 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/682/1/012043

the validation performance. However, the statistical analyses still produced lower percentage of MAE
(<23.7 %) with >0.83 of R2 and NSE values. These were as a proved the selected predictors for each
station has good correlations with the local climates. In the long-term climate analysis, there were 3
RCPs used which represented level of radiation in the atmosphere known as RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5. For the rainfall projection, all of them agreed the local rainfall was predicted to rise less than
7 % at the end of the century. The rainfall was expected to concentrate at eastern Pahang with 2700
mm/year. The hottest area was focused on the middle part of Pahang state with 1665 mm/year, 30 %
dropped from the historical record. Due to non-uniform rainfall pattern, almost 42 % of Pahang state
was expected to receive lower rainfall intensity. Estimated the drought events potentially to occur in
20 % from upcoming 80 years with every station has high probability to drought at least twice times.
For the meantime, the RCP4.5 produced the more frequent drought events compared to other RCPs.
The predicting of the long-term drought at the region can be as significant data input in optimizing the
water management and minimizing the risk and cost in the future year.

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Acknowledgments
This research is supported by Universiti Malaysia Pahang (grant vot RDU1803156), Ministry of
Higher Education (MHE) (FRGS/KPT/2019 grant vot RDU1901141), Malaysian Meteorological
Department (MMD), and Drainage and Irrigation Department (DID).

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