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IGCSE Maths CIE 

8. Probability

CONTENTS
8.1 Probability
8.1.1 Basic Probability
8.1.2 Probability - Venn Diagrams
8.1.3 Probability - Two Way Tables
8.1.4 Combined Probability - Basics
8.1.5 Combined Probability - Harder
8.1.6 Conditional Probability

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8.1 Probability YOUR NOTES

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8.1.1 Basic Probability
What do we mean by basic probability?
There are both simple concepts and very hard topics in probability
Probability is used in many areas and industries, eg. insurance costs and the rate
of interest on loans
What do I need to know?
Be aware of how we write and use probability notation:
1. Event
When we have a trial or experiment there may be several outcomes
We use capital letters to denote an event – this is something that might happen in
our trial
For example, A could be the event of getting an even number when rolling a dice
Note that it is more common to see reference to “outcomes” rather than “events”
but they broadly mean the same thing.
2. “A-dash”

If A is an event, then A’ (spoken: “A-dash”) is the event “not A”

Notice we’re not necessarily interested in what has happened, just that A hasn’t
3. Probability of ...
P(A) means the probability that event A happens (eg. rolling a six on a dice)
P(A’) means the probability that event A does not happen (eg. getting any other
number when rolling a dice)
The letter n is often used to talk about the number of times A happens (or might
happen) if the trial is repeated several times
4. Total probability
All the different events for a trial have a total probability of 1 (certainty)
This should make sense in that something will happen from a trial (eg. when
rolling a (normal) dice it is certain you will get a number between 1 and 6)
5. Experimental probability

Also known as theoretical probability

This is where the probability of an event can be determined by considering all the
possible outcomes (eg. on a dice we would say the probability of getting each
individual number is 1/6) without performing any trials
However sometimes we don’t know this (maybe because we know we have a
biased dice but don’t know how it is biased) so we can only talk about
probabilities once we have done some trials:

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The more trials that are done, the more the experimental probability will reflect
the true probability of the event
6. Number of outcomes

If we want to estimate the number of times an event will happen out of a total of n
trails we calculate:
No. of times A happens=n ×P(A)
You will sometimes see/hear this being called the “expected number of times A
happens”
7. Mutually e xclusive (OR means +)
Mutually exclusive events cannot happen at the same time, rolling a 2 on a dice
and rolling a 4 on a dice
This leads to the result that

8. Independent events (AND means )

This is the first situation where we might combine different events from different
trials
For example:
A is the event “Rolling a 3” and B is the event “Flipping heads”
These events are independent because one does not affect (the probability of) the
other
So to find the probability of both events happening we multiply their individual
probabilities together:

Note that this is NOT the opposite of mutually exclusive – because both often crop
up together it is easy to think they must be linked

 Exam Tip
It is unusual in probability questions that you will be asked to simplify
fractions – so don’t, in case you mess it up! You could use your calculator to
do it automatically but this topic can appear on all papers.In probability
questions, it is usually easiest to use whatever number format the question
does. Probabilities can be fractions, decimals or percentages (nothing else!).
If no format is indicated in the question then fractions are normally best.

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Worked Example YOUR NOTES

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 Worked Example

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Worked Example YOUR NOTES

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 Worked Example

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8.1.2 Probability - Venn Diagrams YOUR NOTES

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What is a venn diagram?
Venn diagrams allow us to show two (or more) characteristics of a situation where
there is overlap between the characteristics
For example, students in a VI Form can study Biology or Chemistry but there may
be students who study both
What do I need to know?
You can be asked to draw a Venn diagram and/or interpret a Venn diagram
Strictly speaking the rectangle (box) is always essential on a Venn diagram as it
represents everything that can happen in the situation
You may see the letters ε or ζ written inside or just outside the box – this means
“the set of all possible outcomes” – basically it just means “everything”!
The words AND and OR become very important in both drawing and interpreting
Venn diagrams
You will need to be familiar with the symbols ∩ and ∪ – intersection and union,
loosely speaking these mean AND and OR (respectively)
1. Drawing a Venn Diagram

You’ll need a “box” and overlapping “bubbles” depending on how many

characteristics you are dealing with
You will not normally be given all the values for every section in your diagram
You will be expected to work out missing information in order to complete your
Venn diagram
Remember to consider AND and OR
2. Interpretation

This is where “not A” (A’) and similar probability that event A does not happen can
get confusing
The symbols ∩ and ∪ are often used here too

 Exam Tip
Lightly highlighting the part of the Venn diagram you need can help but
make sure you can still read the whole diagram for later parts of the
question if you do this.

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Worked Example YOUR NOTES

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 Worked
(a)
Example

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Worked Example YOUR NOTES

 (b)
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Worked Example YOUR NOTES

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Worked Example YOUR NOTES

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8.1.3 Probability - Two Way Tables YOUR NOTES

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What are two-way tables?
While Venn diagrams are great at showing overlap they can only show one feature
(characteristic) of a situation at one time
In the notes on Venn diagrams we had an example talking about students studying
either Spanish or German, or both
However we may also be interested in how many boys and girls were studying
Spanish and/or German as well
This is where we need a two-way table – one of the characteristics will be the
columns and the other will be presented in rows
Once we have our table we can use the numbers within to determine probabilities
What do I need to know?
You’ll need to be able to construct a two-way table from information given in
words and then use a table to calculate probabilities
So you’ll need to be familiar with the basics and notation around probability
1. Total row/column

It may not be obvious from the wording but a total row and column can be really
helpful in two-way table questions
If they’re not mentioned, or included when given a table, add them in
2. Completing a table

It may not be possible to add numbers to the table from every sentence, one at a
time
You will usually have to combine one piece of information with another in order to
fully complete a table
3. Conditional probability

Two-way tables in particular give rise to using conditional probability

This can get complicated but with two-way tables, it is usually straightforward to
see which parts of the table the question is referring to

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Worked Example YOUR NOTES

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8.1.4 Combined Probability - Basics YOUR NOTES

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What do we mean by combined probabilities?
This can mean lots of things as you’ll see over these notes and the next set
In general it means we have more than one ‘thing’ (trial/event) to bear in mind and
these things may be independent, mutually exclusive or may involve an event that
follows on from a previous event drawing a second counter from a bag
1. Tree diagrams

Especially useful when we have more than one trial but are only concerned with
two outcomes from each
Even more useful when probabilities change for the second experiment
2. Replacement

Are items being selected at random replaced or not?

If not then numbers will decrease as the situation progresses and so probabilities
change – this is often called conditional probability
3. AND’s and OR’s
AND means for independent events
OR means for mutually exclusive events

4. Sum of all probabilities is 1

This is a very basic fact that gets lost along the way in more complicated
probability questions – but it is one of the best ‘tricks’ you can use!
A good example of its use is when you want the probability of something being
“non zero”:
P(x ≥ 1) = 1 - P(x = 0)

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Worked Example YOUR NOTES

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 Worked Example

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Worked Example YOUR NOTES

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 Worked Example

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8.1.5 Combined Probability - Harder YOUR NOTES

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What do I need to know?
Be aware of the basics, ie. tree diagrams, replacement, AND and OR, the sum of all
probabilities is 1 (see Combined Probability – Basics)
Note that there may be some problem-solving and algebra involved (see question
2 of the Worked Example)

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 Worked Example

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 Worked Example

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 Worked Example

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8.1.6 Conditional Probability YOUR NOTES

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What is conditional probability?
Conditional probability refers to situations where the probability of an event
changes or is dependent on other events having already happened
For example, names drawn from a hat, without replacement, containing 10
different names
The first name drawn out of the hat has a 1/10 of being a particular name
The second name drawn would have a 1/9 chance of being a particular name
(or probability zero if the particular name was first out)
The probability has changed depending on what has happened already
Make sure you understand the basics of probability before continuing

There are formal ways of writing condition probability but this is not necessary for
IGCSE
Conditional probability questions can occur from Venn diagrams, tree diagrams
and tables
Some questions may be given in words only, but it is usually easier to understand
what is happening by drawing one of these three diagrams

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Conditional probability questions are often called “given that” questions

eg Find the probability of it raining today given that it rained yesterday
The phrase “given that” is not always used in questions
You will need to look out for alternative phrases and interpret them
Venn diagrams and conditional probability
Ensure you are familiar with Venn Diagrams

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Shading can help with Venn diagrams

Draw a “mini-version” of the Venn diagram rather than use the original as you
may need that later

Tree diagrams and conditional probability

Ensure you are familiar with Tree Diagrams

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With tree diagrams the “conditional” probabilities are on the diagram

Look at the second set of branches
These are “conditional” on what happened in the first branch
Tables and conditional probability
Ensure you are familiar with Two-way Tables

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 Exam Tip
Take time and care with diagrams for probability as many of the calculations
involved rely on these being correct.In general use whatever the question
does for probabilities – decimals, fractions or percentages. The only
exception to this is that it can often be easier to change percentages to
decimals – especially if multiplication is required.

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