Discrete probability distribution

Binomial Probability distribution:

Many experiments consist of repeated independent trials having two possible
outcome. Examples are Head and Tail, Success/failure, right/wrong, alive/dead,
good/defective, infected/not-infected. If the probability of each outcome remains
the same throughout the trials then such trials are called the Bernoulli trails and the
experiment having Bernoulli trials is called as binomial experiment.

Properties of Binomial experiment:

i. The outcome of each trial may be classified in one of the two categories,
success/failure.
ii. The probability of success denoted by P, remains constant for all trials.
iii. The successive trials are called independent.
iv. The experiment is repeated a fixed number of time, say n.
Formula:

()
P ( X=x ) = n p q
x
x n−x

Where,
n = number of trials
P = probability of success
q = 1 – P = probability of failure

Parameters of Binomial Distribution:

n, p

Mean and Variance:

Mean = np
Variance = npq

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Q.8.5 (b) If 60% of the voters in a large district prefer candidate A, what is the
probability that in a sample of 12 voters exactly 7 will prefer A.
Solution:
n = 12
p = 0.60

()
P ( X=x ) = n p q
x
x n−x

( )
P ( X=7 )= 12 (0.60) (0.40)
7
7 12−7

( )
P ( X=7 )= 12 (0.60) (0.40) =0.227
7
7 5

Q. 8.5 (c) The probability that a patient recovers from a delicate heart operation is
0.9, what is the probability that exactly 5 of the next 7 patients having this
operation survive.
Solution:
P = 0.9
q = 1 – 0.9 = 0.1
n=7

()
P ( X=x ) = n p q
x
x n−x

()
P ( X=5 )= 7 (0.9) (0.1)
5
5 7 −5

()
P ( X=5 )= 7 (0.9) (0.1) =0.124
5
5 2

Q. 8.5 (a) If the probability of getting caught copying someone else’s exam is 0.2,
find the probability of not getting caught in 3 attempts.
Solution:
P = 0.2 q = 0.8 n=3 x=0

()
P ( X=x ) = n p q
x
x n−x

()
P ( X=x ) = 3 (0.2) (0.8)
0
0 3−0

()
P ( X=x ) = 3 (0.2) (0.8) =0.512
0
0 3

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Q. 8.6 (a). The incidence of an occupational disease in an industry is such that the
workmen have 20% chance of suffering from it. What is the probability out of
6workmen?
i. Not more than 2
ii. 4 or more (will catch the disease)
Solution:
i. Not more than 2:

P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)

()
0 1
1
()
¿ 6 (0.20) (0.80) + 6 (0.20) (0.80) + 6 (0.2) (0.80)
0 6−0 5

2
2 4
()
2816
= 3125

ii. 4 or more will catch the disease:

P(X = 4) + P(X = 5) + P(X = 6)

()
4
6−4

5
5
()
¿ 6 (0.20) (0.80) + 6 (0.20) (0.80) + 6 (0.20) (0.80)
4 6 −5

6
6 0
()
53
= 3125

Q. 8.6 (b) If on the average rainfalls on 12 days every 30, find the probability that.
i. First 3 days of given week will be fine and remaining wet.
ii. The rain will fall on just 3 days of given week.
Solution:
12
P (rain) = 30
12 18
P (not rain) = 1− 30 = 30
i. ii.
( 18 ) ( 12 ) ()
3 4
n x n−x
= 30 30 Applying P ( X=x ) = x p q

¿ 7 ( )( )
3 4
= 0.0055
( 3) 1230 1830
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 ¿ 0.2903

Q.8.7 An insurance salesman sells policies to 5 men, all of identical age and good
health. According to actuarial tables, the probability that a man of this particular
2
age will be alive 30 years hence 3 . Find the probability that in 30 years.
i. All men.
ii. At least 3 men.
iii. Only 2 men.
iv. At most one man.
(Will be alive)
Solution:
i. All mean:
2
P = P (Alive) = 3
1
q = P (Death) = 3
n=5

()
P ( X=x ) = n p q
x
x n−x

P ( X=5 )= 5 ( ) ( )
5 5−5

( 5) 23 31
( 32 )
= ( 1 ) 243
32
= 243

ii. At least 3 men:

P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5)
3 5−3 4 5 −4 5 5−5

() 2 1
¿ 5( )( )
3 3 3 () 2 1
+ 5( )( )
4 3 3 () 2 1
+ 5( )( )
5 3 3
192
= 243

iii. Only 2 men:

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 ( )( ) ( )
2 5−2
2 1
P ( X=2 )= 5
2 3 3
4 1
P ( X=2 )=10 × ×
9 27
40
¿
243

iv. At most one man will be alive:

P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)
0 5−0 1 5−1

() 2 1
¿ 5 ( )( )
0 3 3 (1 ) 3
2 1
+ 5( )( )
3
1 5 ×2 ×1
¿ 1 ×1 × +
243 3 ×81
11
¿
243

Q.8.8.A multiple choice quiz has 15 questions, each with 4 possible answers of
which only one is the correct. What is the probability that sheer guess work yields
from 5 to 10 correct answers?

Solution:
n = 15
1
p= 4
3
q= 4

¿ P ( X=5 )+ P ( X=6 )+ P ( X =7 ) + P ( X =8 ) + P ( X=9 ) + P ( X=10 )

Solve:

Q.8.13. (a) In a binomial distribution, the mean and standard deviation were found
to be 36 and 4.8 respectively. Find p and n.
Solution:
Mean = np = 36----------------- (i)
S.D = √ npq = 4.8
= npq = 23.04------------------ (ii)

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Divide (ii) by (i)
np q 23.04
=
np 36
q=0.64
P=1−0.64=0.36
Putting value of P in (i)
np=36
n(0.36) 36
=
(0.36) 0.36
=n=100 TRY Question 8.13 (b) (c)

Poisson distribution
Poisson distribution is developed by French Mathematicians “Denis Poisson” in 1837.

It is the limiting approximation of the Binomial distribution when “P” the probability of success
is very small and “ n” the number of trials is very large. It is used when events occure randomly
over a specific interval of time, space or length.

Examples: Number of diabetic patients per year in Lahore City. Number of typing errors per
page, etc

The Formula is

F(x) =(e– λ λx)/x!

some times λ is not directly given, in that case we have to find its value by using the equation
λ=np
It has only one Parameter that is “average value” or λ
Applications/ Questions
Q1: Two hundred passengers have made reservations for a flight. If the probability that a
passenger will not show up is0.01, what is the probability that exactly 3 will not show up?

Here

n=200, p=0.01

λ=np

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 =200x0.01

=2

applying

F(x) =(e– λ λx)/x!

=(2.7178– 2 23)/3! =0.1804

Q2: The probability that a man aged 50 years will die within a year is 0.01125. What is the
probability that of 12 such men at least 11 will reach their 51th birthday?

Here

n=12, p=0.01125

λ=np
=12x0.01125

=0.135

Applying

F(x) =(e– λ λx)/x!

Now the probability that no person will die, means “X=0”

=(2.7178– 0.135 0.1350)/0! =0.8737

And 1 person will die

=(2.7178– 0.135 0.1351)/1! =0.1179

= P(X=0)+ P(X=1)

= 0.8737+0.1179

=0.9916

Q3: For a machine making parts, there ia a small probability of 0.002 for a part to be defective.
The parts are supplied in bundle of 10 . Calculate the number of bundles’ containing no
defective, one defective or two defectives in consignments of 10000 bundles.

Here

n=10, p=0.002

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λ=np
=10x0.002

=0.02

Applying

F(x) =(e– λ λx)/x!

Now the probability for no defective, means “X=0”

=(2.7178– 0.02 0.020)/0! =0.9802 and from consignments of 10000 bundles

=0.9802x 10000 = 9802

For 1 defective, X=1

= (2.7178– 0.02 0.021)/1! =0.0196 and from consignments of 10000 bundles

=0.0196x 10000 = 196

For 2 defective, X=2

= (2.7178– 0.02 0.022)/2! =0.0002 and from consignments of 10000 bundles

=0.0002x 10000 = 2

Q4: Assume that the probability of being killed in an accident in a coal mine during a year is
1/1400. Calculate the probability that in a mine employing 350 miners, there will be atleast one
fatal accident in a year.

Here

n=350, p=1/1400

λ=np
=350x1/1400

=0.25

Applying

F(x) = (e– λ λx)/x!

At least one accident = P(X≥1) = P(X<1), Means X=0

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 =(2.7178– 0.25 0.250)/0! =0.221
Q5: A secretary makes 2 errors per page on the average. What is the probability that on the next
page she will no error?

Here λ=Average=2,

F(x) = (e– λ λx)/x! For X=0

=(2.7178– 2 20)/0! =0.1353

Hypergeometric Distribution

Properties of Hypergeometric experiment:

i. The outcome of each trial may be classified in to one of two categories
success/failure.
ii. The probability of success changes on each trial.
iii. The successive trials are dependent.
iv. The experiment is repeated a fixed number of times.

Formula:

P ( X=x ) =
( x )( n−x )
k N −k

( Nn )
Where,
N = Number of units in population.
n = Number of units in sample.
K = Number of successes in population, <n

Parameters:
N, n, K

Q.8.26 (a) Determine the probability distribution for the number of white beads
among 5 beats drawn at random from a bowl containing 4 white and 7 black beads.

Solution:

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White = 4, Black = 7 5 are drawn.

X P (X)
0
( 40)(75) =¿
( 115)
1
( 41)(74) =¿
(115)
2
( 42)(73) =¿
( 115)
3
( 43)(72) =¿
( 115)
4
( 44)(71) =¿
( 115)

Q.8.27 (a). A committee of size 3 is to be selected from 4 men and 2 women. Find
the probability distribution for the number of men on the committee.

Solution:
Men = 4 Women = 2 Total = 6 (3 are to be selected)

X P (X)
0
( 40)(23)/( 63)=IMPOSSIBLE
( 41)(22)/(63)= 20
1 4

( 42)(21)/(63)= 20
2 12

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 3
( )( ) ( )
4 2 / 6=4
3 0 3 20

Q (b) A homeowner plants 6 bulbs selected at random from a box containing 4

tulip bulbs and 4 daffodils bulbs. What is the probability that he planted 2 daffodils
and 4 tulip bulbs?
Solution:
Tulips = 4
Daffodils = 4
Total = 8 (6 are to be selected)

P (2 daffodils and 4 Tulips are selected)

P ( X=x ) =
( 2 )( 4 ) 3
4 4
=
(6) 14
8

Q. Ten vegetables cans, all the same size, have lost their labels. It is known that 5
contain tomatoes and 5 contain corn. If 5 are selected at random, what is the
probability that all contain tomatoes? What is the probability that 3 or more contain
tomatoes?
Solution:

Tomatoes = 5
Corn = 5
Total = 10 (5 are selected)

i. All contains tomatoes:

( )( ) ( )
¿ 5 5 / 10 =0.004
5 0 5

ii. 3 or more contain tomatoes:

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 (53)(52)/( 105)+¿ (54 )(51)/(105)+¿( 55)( 50)/(105)=0.50 ¿ ¿

Q. 8.29 (a). Determine the probability that the income tax authorities will catch 3
income tax returns with illegitimate deductions. If it randomly selects 6 returns
among 20 income tax returns of which 8 contain illegitimate deductions.

Solution:
Illegitimate = 8
Legitimate = 12 Total = 20

N = 20
K=8
x=3
n=6

P ( X=x ) =
( x )( n−x )
k N −k

( Nn )
(¿ 83)(123) = 56 × 220 =0.3178
( 206) 38760
Q.8.29 (b). To avoid detection at customs, a traveler has placed 6 narcotics tablets
in a bottle containing 9 vitamin pills that are of similar appearance. If the customs
official selects 3 of the tablets, what is the probability that a traveler will be
arrested for illegal possession of tablets?

Solution:

Narcotics = 6
Vitamins = 9
Total = 15

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n=3

P ( X=1 )+ P ( X =2 ) + P(X =3)

(61)( 92) + (62)( 91) + (63)( 90) =0.82

(153) (153) (153)

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