Rs

Monthly
ECONOMIC UPDATE & OUTLOOK
March 2023

Government of Pakistan
Finance Division
Economic Adviser’s Wing

Contents
Executive Summary 1

International Performance and Outlook 1

Monthly Performance of Pakistan’s Economy 3

Economic Outlook 8

Economic Indicators 11
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grew by 18.2 percent to Rs 4,493.3 billion

during Jul-Feb FY2023 against Rs
Execu ve 3,802.1 billion in the comparable period
of last year. The fiscal consolidation
Summary e orts have been reflected in attaining
surplus in primary balance and

A
containing fiscal deficit despite
lthough the world stands on the exponential increase in borrowing cost.
st rd
edge of slow growth along with Further, during 1 July – 03 March,
high inflation but energy and FY23 money supply (M2) showed meager
food prices are substantially lower than growth of 1.9 percent.
what they were at their peaks. Data
The current account deficit shrank to
released by the Food and Agriculture
USD 74 million in February 2023 as
Organization of the United Nations
against USD 230 million in the previous
revealed eleven straight monthly price
month. The Current Account posted a
decline which pushed food prices down
deficit of USD 3.9 billion for Jul-Jan
by 19 percent from a peak last March.
FY2023 as against a deficit of USD 12.1
However, new export restrictions from
billion last year decline by 68 percent
some countries could soar prices again.
which significantly reduced the external
Furthermore, oil prices are fluctuating
financing requirement.
somehow after Brent oil prices dipped
below 72 dollar per barrel amid ongoing
quivers in financial markets.
Interna onal
For Rabi season 2022-23, the harvest of
wheat crop has been started in Sindh Performance and
while it is going to be harvested in Punjab
by the end of March. Government has
Outlook
increased the wheat support price from
Rs 2,200 to Rs 3,900 per 40 kg for Rabi Global growth prospects at the end of
2022-23 to incentivize the farmers. LSM first quarter of 2023 have improved
performance remained under pressure since December, 2022. This improvement
and witnessed a contraction of 4.4 is due to China's reopening, a material
percent during Jul-Jan FY2023 owing to easing of the European natural gas crisis
increasingly synchronized policy stance and resilience in US consumer demand.
to correct the imbalances, supply chain Since start of the Russia-Ukraine
disruptions and recessionary global conflict, this is the first upward world
pressure. CPI inflation during Jul-Feb FY growth forecast. Fitch forecast world
2022-23 recorded at 26.2 percent growth at 2.0% in 2023, revised up from
compared to 10.5 percent during the 1.4% in the December 2022. This was
same period last year. mainly due to China's 2023 growth
The fiscal deficit during first seven forecast to 5.2% from 4.1%, eurozone
month of current fiscal year has been growth to 0.8% from 0.2% and US growth
contained to 2.3 percent of GDP against to 1.0% from 0.2%. However, lowered
2.8 percent of GDP last year. The primary global growth in 2024 would reflect the
balance has posted a surplus of Rs. 945 lagged impact of rapid Fed and ECB
billion during Jul-Jan FY2023 against the interest rate hikes. The European gas
deficit of Rs 210 billion last year. Total crisis has eased sharply in recent
expenditures grew by 10 percent, largely months with gas supply holding up,
driven by expenditures on markup inventories improving relative to
payments which grew 73 percent due to seasonal norms and wholesale prices
higher servicing on domestic and foreign are falling significantly. This is helping
debts. The net provisional tax collection Eurozone growth prospects and easing

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headline inflation pressures. Fig-1: Growth in WEI

Chinese authorities this month

announced a growth target of around
5%. China's retail sales growth for the
first two months reported of the year
matched expectations, while real estate
investment fell further. Industrial
production for the January-February
period rose by 2.4%, less than the 2.6% 4.61
forecasts. Exports, a major driver of
China's economy, have slowed sharply.
Demand from major trading partners
such as the U.S. has fallen as those 0.76
economies face surging inflation and
slower growth.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New-York
US Department of Commerce reported
the estimate for 2022's fourth quarter months in February, 2023. The upturn in
real GDP annual growth rate as 2.7 output was led by the services sector
percent, which is somewhat weaker than reinforced by the first expansion of
the third quarter's 3.2 percent. The manufacturing production since last
economic activity hit hard by high July. The major growth was registered in
interest rates and weak housing activity. Asia as China and Japan both returned
Some comfort observed in inflation to expansions for the second successive
pressure. The fourth quarter GDP price month. The reviving performance of the
index increased at an annual rate of 3.2 global economy also breathed life into
percent compared the third quarter's 4.8 the trends in business confidence and
percent and the second quarter's 7.3 job creation. Positive sentiment rose to
percent. Surprisingly, given the Fed's its highest level in a year, improving at
interest rate run-up, 517,000 workers both manufacturers and service
were added to US payrolls in January; providers.
the average for 2022 was 401,000.
The February PMIs provide a convincing
The US economy proved resilient to start
signal that the global expansion is
the new year, marked by steady
gathering steam early in the year. The
consumer spending and stabilizing
global composite output PMI rose by 2.4
manufacturing activity. However, the
points to an eight-month high of 52.1 in
outlook going forward is less optimistic,
February, consistent with global GDP
amid heightened uncertainty, surveys did
growing at its potential pace. With
not expect economic conditions to
reduced recession risks, improving
improve much in the months ahead, Fed
supply chains, and the reopening of the
Beige Book reports anecdotal
Chinese economy is likely to boost
information collected by the Fed's 12
demand in the immediate future, further
regional banks during February. US
gains in output are expected in the
economic situation is observing low
coming months.
optimism which is also reflected through
continuous declining trend in WEI during The composite leading indicator (CLI) is
February (Fig-1). designed to provide early signals of
turning points in business cycles
The J.P.Morgan Global Composite Output
showing fluctuation of the economic
Index increased to 52.1 in
activity around its long-term potential
February2023, from 49.7 in January
level.
2023, on account of increase in global
1
output and new orders after seven The CLI s continued slowing growth in
1: OECD has discontinued data for euro area (EA), and revised to individual countries. Germany, France & Italy data has been
incorporated instead of EA, to analyze the cyclical behavior of Pakistan's main trading partners.

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Fig-2: Composite Leading Indicator (a) international prices of vegetable oils,

dairy, cereals and meat, o setting a
steep rise in the sugar price index.
Global commodity prices declined in
February 2023. Energy prices fell by 7.3
percent, led by coal (34.8 percent) and
natural gas in US (27.2 percent). Food
and Beverages prices increased by 1.0
and 5.2 percent, respectively. Raw
Material eased by 0.9 percent, Fertilizer
price prices fell by 5.6 percent, Metals
and minerals dropped by 1.7 percent
while precious metals fell 3.1 percent.

Source: OECD Monthly Perfor-

Fig-3: Composite Leading Indicator (b) mance of Pakistan's
Economy
2.1 Real Sector
2.1-a Agriculture
For Rabi season 2022-23, the harvest of
wheat crop has been started in Sindh
while it is going to be harvested in Punjab
by the end of March. The kisan package
is expected to bode up the crop
productivity in the aftermath of flood
damages. However, the climatic changes
will play a critical role in achieving the
Source: OECD
target. More importantly, government
has increased the wheat support price
February 2023 in OECD and major from Rs 2,200 to Rs 3,900 per 40 kg to
economies, dragged down by high incentivize the farmers.
inflation, rising interest rates and failing During Jul-Feb FY2023, the agriculture
share prices, remain below trend and credit disbursement increased by 28.5
continue to anticipate growth losing percent to Rs 1073.5 billion from Rs
momentum in the US, the UK and Canada, 835.3 billion during same period last
as well as in the Euro area as a whole, year. During Rabi 2022-23 (February
including Germany, France and Italy. The 2023), urea and DAP o -take stood at
CLI for China (industrial sector) shows 503 thousand tonnes (4.6 percent lesser
stabilization driven by production of than February 2022) and 98 thousand
motor vehicles and share prices. tonnes (76.3 percent higher than
The FAO food prices index (FFPI) February 2022).
averaged 129.8 points in February 2023, 2.1-b Manufacturing
marginally down 0.6 points from
January, marking the eleventh LSM performance remained under
consecutive monthly declines. The pressure and witnessed a contraction of
decrease in the index in February was 4.4 percent during Jul-Jan FY2023 owing
mainly due to sharp decline in to increasingly synchronized policy

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Fig-4: Performance of LSM percent in the previous month. On month

on month basis, it has increased to 4.3
percent in February as compared to an
increase of 2.9 percent in the previous
month.
In February, the major increase
witnessed in the Transport 50.5 percent,
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 49.2
percent, Recreation and culture 48.1
percent, Perishable food items 47.6
percent, Non-perishable food items 44.7
percent, Restaurants and hotels 34.5
percent, Furnishing and household
equipment maintenance 34.0 percent,
Miscellaneous goods and services 33.3
percent, Health 18.8 percent, Clothing
and footwear 17.0 percent, Housing and
stance to correct the imbalances, supply
utilities 13.6 percent, Education 10.8
chain disruptions and recessionary
percent and Communication 3.7 percent.
global pressure. On a YoY basis, LSM
declined by 7.9 percent in January 2023, The average CPI in the first eight months
while it grew by 1.5 percent over the of the current fiscal year remained 26.2
previous month. During the period, 4 percent compared to 10.5 percent
sectors witnessed positive growth which during the same period of last year.
includes, Wearing apparel, Leather
The SPI for the week ended on 22nd
Products, Furniture, and others.
March 2023, recorded an increase of
The performance of auto-industry also 1.80 percent as compared to previous
remains subdued due to massive week. Prices of 12 items declined, 13
increases in inputs prices, tightening items remained stable and 26 items
auto finance, and import restrictions. increased.
During Jul-Feb FY2023, car production
and sale decreased by 43.14 percent and
47.5 percent, respectively, Trucks & RAMZAN PACKAGE
Buses production and sale decreased by
31.2 percent and 29.9 percent.
Total cement dispatches declined by 16.7 Government is cognizant of the
percent during Jul-Feb FY2023 to 29.81 current inflationary spiral in the
mn tons (35.76 mn tons last year). In country and taking every possible
February 2023, cement dispatches measure to provide relief to the
decreased by 7.1 percent to 4.04 mn tons common masses.
(4.35 mn tons in Feb 2022).
amounting Rs. 5.0 billion has recently
The sale of petroleum products declined
been announced for Utility Store
by 19 percent in Jul-Feb FY2023 to 11.7
Corporations (USCs) where the
mn tons from 14.5 mn tons in the same
essential items shall be provided on
period last year. YoY, oil sales decreased
subsidised rates. The Ramzan Relief
by 21 percent in Feb 2023 to 1.2 mn tons
Packages is being launched by USC
(1.5 mn tons in Feb 2022).
every year since 1991. Under this
2.2 Inflation package, USC also reduces the
prices of essential food and non-food
CPI inflation in February, 2023 recorded
items of di erent brands from 5% to
at 31.5 percent (YoY) compared to 27.6

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billion (-0.3 percent of GDP) last year.

10% by obtaining special discount
from the vendors/suppliers and The improvement in fiscal indicators
cutting down USC's own profit have been realized on account of
margin so as to provide relief to significant rise in net federal revenues
consumers. Following 19 items are that outpaced the growth in total
being provided under this Package: expenditure. During Jul-Jan FY2023, net
federal revenues increased by 30
Atta, Sugar, Ghee, Dal Chana, percent to reach Rs 2798 billion against
Dar Masoor, White Gram, Rice Rs 2152 billion in the same period of last
Basmati, Rice Sella, Broken Rice, year. On the other hand, total
Cooking Oil, Dal Moong, Dal Mash, expenditures grew by only 10 percent to
Baisen, Khajoor, Beverages, Rs 5058 billion during Jul-Jan FY2023 as
Squashes, Black Tea, Milk, Spices compared to Rs 4592 billion last year.
Expenditures on markup payments grew
by 73 percent due to higher servicing on
The Ramzan Relief Package is based domestic and foreign debt as a result of
on Hybrid Subsidy Model (Targeted higher interest rates. On the other hand,
Rs.1,153 million + General Rs.3,844 non-markup expenditures reduced by 26
million). Under this package USC will percent owing to significant decline in
provide 10 additional items beyond subsidies and grants.
Prime Minister Relief package. FBR Tax Collection
PM has announced a Ramzan
The net provisional tax collection grew
package providing
by 18.2 percent to Rs 4493.3 billion
to the inflation-hit people. The
during Jul-Feb FY2023 against Rs 3802.1
package is first of its kind aimed at
billion in the comparable period of last
facilitating the poor population.
year. FBR collected Rs 527.2 billion in
Government of Punjab has allocated
February 2023, up from Rs 451.3 billion
Rs. 64 billion whereby 15.8 million
in February previous year, representing
household falling in the poverty
a 16.8 percent increase.
would be provided 3 free flour bags
of 10 kg each. Govt of KP has Fig-5: FBR Tax Collection (Rs. bn) (Jul-Feb)
announced Rs. 19.7 billion to provide
3 wheat flour bags of 10 kg amongst
its 5.8 million households registered
with BISP and govt of Balochistan will
distribute 0.5 million flour bags of 20
kg. However, govt of Sindh has
announced Rs. 15.6 billion to provide
Rs. 2000 to purchase wheat flour by
its 7.8 million families registered
with BISP.

2.3 Fiscal
The fiscal deficit during first seven
month of current fiscal year has been
Source: FBR
contained to 2.3 percent of GDP (Rs.1974
billion) against 2.8 percent of GDP (Rs
1898 billion) last year. While the primary During Jul-Feb FY2023, domestic tax
balance has posted a surplus of Rs 945 collection grew by 22 percent while
billion (1.1 percent of GDP) during Jul- customs duty increased by 0.8 percent.
Jan FY2023 against the deficit of Rs 210 This performance reflects governments'

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e orts to lessen their reliance on import Exports in Services during Jul-Feb

duties and taxes. FY2023 increased by 6.5 percent to $4.7
billion as against $ 4.4 billion. The
Direct tax collection has witnessed a
imports in services decreased by 33.0
substantial increase with growth of 48
percent to $ 5.1 billion as compared to $
percent while the indirect tax collection
7.6 billion same period last year. The
grew by 2.1 percent during Jul-Feb
Trade deficit in services contained by
FY2023.The government's strategy of
89.2 percent to $0.3 billion as against $
making taxation progressive and
3.1 billion same period last year.
equitable by shifting the tax burden to
society's wealthiest and a uent groups As per PBS, during Jul-Feb FY 2023,
has resulted in a robust pace of exports stood at $ 18.7 billion ($ 20.6
development in direct tax collection. billion last year), declined by 9.2 percent.
The major export commodities which
2.4 Monetary
have shown tremendous performance
Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) during the review period include Raw
increased the policy rate by 300 basis Cotton (268.3 percent in quantity & 86.8
points to 20 percent in last Monetary percent in value), Fish & Fish Preparation
Policy decision held on 02nd March, (26.1 percent in quantity & 12.1 percent
2023. The decision is based on higher in Value), Foot Balls (37.7 percent in
inflation outcome due to external and quantity & 35.7 percent in value), Foot
fiscal adjustments. wear (37.8 percent in quantity & 20.0
percent in Value), Surgical goods &
During 1st July – 03rd March, FY2023 Medical Instruments (8.2 percent in
money supply (M2) shows growth of 1.9 Value) and pharmaceutical products
percent (Rs. 530.1 billion) compared to (109.1 percent in quantity & 30.4 percent
growth of 1.2 percent (Rs. 293.6 billion) in value).
in last year. Within M2, NFA decreased by
Rs 2083.2 billion as compared to The total imports in Jul-Feb FY2023
decrease of Rs 370.7 billion in last year decreased to $ 40.1 billion ($ 52.4 billion
while NDA of the banking sector last year), thus declined by 23.5 percent.
increased by Rs. 2613.2 billion as Main commodities imported were
compared to an increase of Rs. 664.3 Petroleum products ($5352.5 million),
billion last year. Medicinal products ($ 944.3 million),
Petroleum crude ($ 3483.6 million),
2.5 External Sector Liquefied Natural gas ($ 2550.8 billion),
The Current Account posted a deficit of $ Palm Oil ($ 2681.1 million), Plastic
3.9 billion for Jul-Feb FY2023 as against materials ($ 1620.7 million) and Iron &
a deficit of $ 12.1 billion last year, mainly Steel ($ 1373.5 million).
due to contraction in imports. However, 2.5.1 Foreign Investment
the current account deficit shrank to $
74 million in February 2023 as against $ FDI reached $ 784.4 million during Jul-
230 million in January, largely reflecting Feb FY2023 ($ 1315.5 million last year)
an improvement in trade balance. decreased by 40.4 percent. FDI received
Exports (FOB) declined by 9.7 percent from China $ 222.8 million (25.5 percent),
during Jul-Feb FY2023 and reached $ Japan $ 133.9 million (17.1 percent),
18.6 billion ($ 20.6 billion last year). Switzerland $ 123.0 million (13.6 percent
Imports (FOB) declined by 21.0 percent of total FDI), and U.A.E $ 88.7 million (10.6
during Jul-Feb FY2023 and reached $ percent). Power sector attracted highest
37.4 billion ($ 47.3 billion last year). FDI of $ 346.7 million (40.2 percent of
Resultantly the trade deficit (Jul-Feb total FDI), Financial Business $ 251.7
FY2023) reached to $ 18.7 billion as million (28.6 percent), and Oil & Gas
against $ 26.7 billion last year. Explorations $ 106.0 million (12.5
percent).

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Foreign Private Portfolio Investment has Fig-6: Major World Indices

registered a net outflow of $ 8.4 million
during Jul-Feb FY2023. Foreign Public
Portfolio Investment recorded a net
outflow of $ 1010.9 million, on account of
Sukuk repayment in December 2022. The
total foreign portfolio investment
recorded an outflow of $ 1019.3 million
during Jul-Feb FY2023 as against inflow
of 590.3 million last year. Total foreign
investment during Jul-Feb FY2023
recorded an outflow of $234.9 million as
against an inflow of $ 1905.8 million last
year.
2.5.2 Worker's Remittances
Source: PSX, Investing.com
In Jul-Feb FY2023, workers' remittances
recorded at $ 18.0 billion ($ 20.2 billion program while the annual budget for
last year), decreased by 10.8 percent. the Kafalat program is Rs 252 billion.
MoM basis, remittances increased by 4.9
percent in February 2023 ($ 1.98 billion) § BISP registers over 0.4 million
households in the recently launched
as compared to January 2023 ($ 1.89
dynamic National Socio-Economic
billion). Share of remittances (Jul-Feb
Registry (NSER) survey through its
FY2023) from Saudi Arabia remained
registration centers at Tehsil level
25.5 percent ($4346.6 million), U.A.E 18.7
from flood a ected districts.
percent ($ 3197.6 million), U.K 13.8
percent ($ 2631.2 million), USA 9.5 § The dynamic NSER survey will
percent ($ 1972.6 million), other GCC enhance the country's capacity to
countries 11.5 percent ($2119.5 million), cope with disasters, pandemics and
EU 11.0 percent ($ 2035.9 million), economic instability by adopting a
Malaysia 0.4 percent ($ 74.8 million), and more e ective data collection
Other Countries 8.9 percent ($1616.1 mechanism for the poor households
million). which shall be validated through
NADRA.
2.5.3 Foreign Exchange Reserves
Pakistan's total liquid foreign exchange § PPAF through its 24 Partner
Organizations has disbursed 39,035
reserves increased to $ 9.671 billion on
interest free loans amounting to Rs
March 29, 2023, with the SBP's reserves
1.61 billion during the month of
now stood at $ 4.076 billion. Commercial
February, 2023. Since inception of
banks' reserves remained at $ 5.595
interest free loan component, a total
billion.
of 2,264,011 interest free loans
2.6 Performance of KSE Index amounting to Rs 83.55 billion have
been disbursed to the borrowers.
The KSE-100 index closed at 40,510
points as on 28th Feb 2023, while market § Bureau of Emigration & Overseas
capitalization settled at Rs 6,273 billion. Employment has registered 67219
The performance of major world indices emigrants during February, 2023 for
is depicted in Fig-6: overseas employment in di erent
countries.
2.7 Social Sector
§ According to the NIH data, the death
§ The government has allocated an toll in the country remained the same
amount of PKR 78 billion for the next
at 30,645 whereas the number of total
installment of the Benazir Kafalat

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infections now shot up to 1,578,155 3.2 Agriculture

after adding the fresh 109 cases on
March 19, 2023. Wheat production largely depends on the
prevailing climatic conditions. As
witnessed last year, delay in rains and
Economic early heat waves are expected to
adversely impact the wheat production.
Outlook According to Pakistan Met O ce the
country might witness di erent spells of
heatwaves within upcoming months of
3.1 Inflation April and May, 2023.
Inflation is expected to stay at elevated 3.3 Industrial Activities
level owing to market frictions caused by
relative demand and supply gap of LSM's cyclical pattern is well positively
essential items, exchange rate correlated with the cyclical position of
depreciation and recent upward Pakistan's main trading partners. In
adjustment of administered prices of January, LSM activity came in marginally
petrol and Diesel. Due to the lagged below expectations. Although the CLI in
e ect of floods, the production losses Pakistan's main export areas remains
especially of major agriculture crops has below its neutral level, some stabilization
not yet been fully recovered. in its current cyclical condition seems to
Consequently, the shortage of essential appear in recent months. This may bode
items has emerged and persisted. well for domestic industrial production.
Inflation may further jack up as a result But current monetary restriction and
of second round e ect. fiscal consolidation, both required to
bring external and internal balance may
Another potential reason of rising price cause further short run pain to the
level is the political and economic domestic economy, which also translates
uncertainty. The economic distress into domestic industrial production
resulting from delay of stabilization below its neutral capacity level. YoY
program has exacerbated the economic growth of LSM is expected to remain
uncertainty due to which inflationary negative in February while MoM LSM is
expectations have remained strong. expected to remain positive.
Despite SBP's contractionary monetary
policy the inflationary expectations are Fig-7: Relationship between CLI and LSM cycle
not settling down. Moreover, the bulk
buying during the month of Ramadan
may cause demand supply gap and result
into prices of essential items to escalate.
However, the government is well
cognizant of this and have already taken
on board all provincial governments to
ensure smooth supply of essential items.
Inflation in March may remain in upper
bound as observed in the month of
February. Recent monetary policy
restrictions and e orts towards fiscal
consolidation along with the
Jan-23

administrative, policy and relief

measures are expected to ease out the
inflationary pressure by the end of the Source: PBS, OECD and EAW Calcula ons
current fiscal year. Overall economic activity
The Monthly Economic Indicator (MEI) is

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developed as a tool to distribute the past contain and decreased by 24.2 percent
annual GDP numbers, as reported by the on YoY basis.
PBS, on a monthly/quarterly basis and to
Remittances increased by 5.0 percent on
nowcast on that same frequency GDP
MoM basis to $2.0 billion in February
growth for the FY in which the National
2023 as compared $1.9 billion in January
Accounts are not yet available. Fig-8
2023, due to improved situation after
presents the MEI on monthly basis since
narrowing down di erences between the
January 2019. It should be noted that
inter-bank and open markets,
some of the data underlying the
subsequent allowing adjustments of the
February MEI are still provisional and
exchange rate. Other factor which
may be revised next month.
contributes mainly in current account
The average MEI during the first 8 improvement for the month of February,
months of the current FY is indicating a is balance on primary income which
further slowdown in domestic economic contained by $200 million. Accordingly,
activities. This seems to be driven by current account deficit contained to $74
lack of industrial dynamism, accelerating million as compared $ 230 million in
inflation, which erodes purchasing January 2023.
power of consumers and investors and is
For the month of March, it is expected
also illustrated by negative growth in
that exports and imports will remain at
exports and imports.
current level due to slow growth in the
major trading partners and contained
Fig-8: Monthly Economic Indicator (MEI) domestic economic activities. However,
remittances will probably further
improve due to positive seasonal and
17.25 Ramzan factor. Taking these factors into
account, as well as other components,
the current account deficit likely to
remain on lower side.
3.6 Fiscal
Presently, the government is pursuing
fiscal consolidation in order to reduce
the overall fiscal deficit through a
-9.03
combination of expenditure management
and revenue increase. These measures
are paying o in the form of improved
Source: EA Wing’s Calculation fiscal accounts. The fiscal deficit has
been reduced to 2.3 percent of GDP
during Jul-Jan FY2023, down from 2.8
3.5 External
percent of GDP in the same period
According to BOP data, the trade deficit previous year, while the primary balance
in goods and services declined is in surplus due to significant decline in
significantly by 30.8 percent on YoY non-markup expenditures. On revenue
basis; from $2.6 bn in Feb 2022 to $1.8 bn side, FBR tax collection currently
in Feb 2023. However, on MoM basis, it growing at 18 percent despite
increased marginally to $1.8 bn unprecedented challenges due to
compared $1.7 bn in Jan. Exports of slowdown in economic activity and
goods and services decreased import compression. However, the
marginally on MoM basis to $2.77 bn as current performance indicates the
compared $ 2.8 bn in Jan. on YoY basis, it resolve of the government to optimize
declined by 19.2 percent. Imports of the revenue collection and to achieve the
goods and services has continued to full year target.

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The fiscal consolidation is at the top of liquidity. Through demand management

government's stabilization agenda in policies, government is trying to limit the
order to tackle sizeable fiscal deficit. current account deficit, which will not
With prudent expenditure management transfer further pressure on dwindling
and e ective resource mobilization reserves. Moreover, the Government is
strategy, it is expected that FY2023 will firmly inclined to successfully complete
observe a substantial reduction in the IMF's EFF program, which includes
overall fiscal deficit as a percent of GDP. necessary policy measures and will
bring additional relief to the financial
3.7 Final Remarks
account of the balance of payments. The
Despite challenges and uncertainties, policy measures are intended to bring
economy is showing continuous signs of expenditures more in line with the
resilience as depicted through contained income generated within the country. At
fiscal and current account deficit during fiscal front, Government is pursuing
the current FY. fiscal consolidation in order to reduce
the overall fiscal deficit through
Furthermore, Pakistan is currently expenditure management, austerity
confronted with a shortage in external measures, and revenue mobilization.

MARCH 2023 10
 ECONOMIC INDICATORS
31 March, 2023
Remi ances ($ bn)

Exports FOB ($ bn)

Imports FOB ($ bn)

Current Account Deficit ($ bn)

Source: SBP

FDI ($ mn)

Total Foreign Investment ($ mn)

Source: FBR & Budget Wing

FBR Revenue (Rs.bn)

Non-Tax Revenue (Rs.bn)

Source: SBP PSDP (Rs.bn)

Agriculture Credit (Provisional) Jul-Feb

(Jul-Feb)
(Jul-Feb)

PSX Index

29-Mar-2023
1-Jul-2022

Market Capitaliza on (Rs. bn)

29-Mar-2023
1-Jul-2022

Market Capitaliza on ($ bn)

29-Mar-2023
1-Jul-2022

* : Formerly Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) Source: PBS, PSX & SECP

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