Man In India, 97 (4) : 589-607 © Serials Publications

Global Warming and Climatic Sensitivity: A Case

Study of Uttarakhand State of Indian Himalaya
Prashant Kumar*

Abstract: Average arctic temperatures have been increasing at almost twice the rate of the rest of
the world in the past 100 years; however arctic temperatures are also highly variable. Although
more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere, this does not
contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough
to mix between hemispheres. IPCC projected an increase in global mean surface air temperature
(SAT) which will continue over the 21st century if the anthropogenic greenhouse gases keep on
emitting with the current rate. Geographical patterns of projected surface air temperature warming
show greatest temperature increases over land (roughly twice the global average temperature
increase) and at high northern latitudes, and less warming over the southern oceans and North
Atlantic, consistent with observations during the latter part of the 20th century. Scope of the
present is to analysis the climate sensitivity in the hill regions of Uttarakhand.
Keywords: Climate Sensitivity, Global Worming, Green House effect.

Introduction
The remarkable economic growth achieved by the developed world since the
industrial revolution fuelled by large scale consumption of fossil energy is mostly
responsible for global warming and climate change. Accumulation of greenhouse
gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydro-fluorocarbons
and other halocarbons, per- fluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride from fossil fuel
combustion, cement manufacture, deforestation and other anthropogenic activities
responsible for global warming and the resulting climate change (IPCC, 2013).
Climate change could be seen as rising temperatures, unpredictable monsoons,
occurrence of extreme weather events such as prolonged hot periods, floods,
droughts etc. Climate change has begun to seriously impact agriculture in every
part of the planet (Rosenzweig, and Hillel, 1995; Rosenzweig, and Liverman, 1992;
Richard et. al., 1998) especially in tropical countries where rain-fed agriculture is
widely prevalent.
Climate change became a major international issue towards the end of the 20th
century. This is perhaps the most universally discussed developmental issue of the
21st century. Climate change is a product of human development, but this is now
becoming a serious threat to development itself. Its impact will directly affect all
sectors of life in every country and nobody can escape from the consequences of
climate change (HDR, 2007/2008).
*
Department of Economics, HNB Garhwal Central University, SRT Campus, Badsahithaul, Tehri
Garhwal, Uttarakhand. Email: [email protected]
590 Man In India

Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) and Greenhouse Effect

The gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect by absorbing infrared radiation
and cause warming of the earth’s atmosphere are known as greenhouse gases.
Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), perfluorocarbons
(PFCs), Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) are the main
greenhouse gases. Water vapour is also considered as a greenhouse gas, but it
stays in the atmosphere for only a short time. However, in humid tropics, a high
concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere can have a more powerful warming effect
due to the prevailing high atmospheric humidity. Some species of the GHGs (CO2,
CH4, N2O and water vapour) have been naturally occurring; while the others (PFCs,
HFCs and SF6) are produced purely as a result of industrial activities.
Life on earth depends on the energy which is received from the sun, the
ultimate source of energy. About 30 percent of the sunlight that beams toward earth
is reflected by the earth surface, clouds and aerosols and scattered back in to the
space. The rest of the light reaches the earth surface and again reflected as a type
of long wave radiation. Greenhouse gases present in the atmosphere absorb the
infrared radiation leaving the planet and reflect it again back to the earth’s surface
and this causes the atmosphere to warm. This phenomenon is known as “greenhouse
effect” and it plays a significant role in shaping the earth’s climate. It produces the
relatively warm and hospitable environment near the earth’s surface where humans
and other life-forms have been able to develop and prosper. With no GHGs present
in the atmosphere, the mean temperature of earth would be around –18°C (Le Treut
et. al., 2007), much below the current mean temperature of about 14 to 14.5°C and
unsuitable for human inhabitation. Greenhouse effect is one of a large number of
physical, chemical and biological processes that determine the earth’s climate

Increase in Atmospheric GHG Concentration

David Keeling’s continuous and accurate measurements of atmospheric CO2
concentration since 1958 on Mauna Loa in Hawaii provide the best data on global
carbon cycle. Observations on the atmospheric abundances of 13 CO2 isotope
(Francey and Farquhar, 1982) and molecular oxygen (O2) (Keeling and Shertz,
1992; Keeling et. al., 1993) indicated that as fossil fuel consumption increased,
atmospheric concentration of CO2 also went up. The ice core data also provided
that the CO2 concentration in the ice age periods was significantly lower than the
industrial period. Thousands of years before industrial revolution, CO2 concentration
in the atmosphere stayed within the range 280±20 ppm (Indermuhle et. al., 1999).
During the industrial era, CO2 concentration increased exponentially to 367 ppm in
1999 (Neftel et. al., 1985; Etheridge et. al., 1996) and to 379 ppm in 2005 (IPCC,
 Global Warming and Climatic Sensitivity:... 591

2007) and 395 ppm in 2013 (IPCC, 2013). Measurements of the atmospheric
concentration of the two other major greenhouse gases, methane (CH4) and nitrous
oxide (NO2) since 1970 have also showed an increasing trend (Graedel and McRae,
1980). CH4 concentration was relatively constant abundance of 700 ppb until the
19th century when a steady increase brought CH4 abundances to 1,745 ppb in 1998
and 1,774 ppb in 2005. For NO2 the increase over the period from 1998 to 2005
was only 5 ppb (314 ppb in 1998 and 319 ppb in 2005), but the changes from the
glacial-interglacial cycles (180-260 ppb) was much higher (IPCC, 2007).

Temperature Rise: Global Context

Global land surface temperature (LST) and sea surface temperature (SST) have
been increasing at an increasing rate in recent decades and according to IPPC, this
is unequivocal and anthropogenically induced (IPCC, 2007 & IPCC, 2013). The
present global average surface temperature is much higher than that of the pre-
industrial period. The current warming trend is very likely due to accumulation of
human-induced greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and proceeding at a rate that
is unprecedented in the past 1,300 years (IPCC, 2007).
Rate of global warming during 1910s-1940s was 0.35°C per decade and
from 1970s to the first decade of this millennium was 0.55°C per decade (IPCC,
2007). Eleven of the 12 warmest years on record have occurred in the most recent
12 years. According to an assessment by NOAA, the year 2012 was one of the
10 warmest years since global average temperatures have been recorded and the
planet has transformed by rising temperatures (Blunden and Arndt, 2013). Global
average surface temperatures have increased by about 0.74°C over the past 100
years since 1906.
Generally the temperature has been increasing in an increasing rate in the last
one and half century (AR4 & AR5). The rate of increase for last 150 years was 0.045
0
C per decade while the rate for the last 25 years was 0.177°C per decade. Even as
there was consistency between the land and ocean temperature changes, the latter
increased more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat
capacity of the oceans and the ocean loses more heat by evaporation (Sutton et. al.,
2007). Since the beginning of industrialization, the inter-hemispheric temperature
difference has increased due to melting of sea ice and snow in the North (Fuelner,
et. al., 2013).
Average arctic temperatures have been increasing at almost twice the rate of
the rest of the world in the past 100 years, however arctic temperatures are also
highly variable (IPCC, 2007). Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the
Northern than Southern Hemisphere, this does not contribute to the difference in
592 Man In India

warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between
hemispheres (TAR, 2001). IPCC projected an increase in global mean surface air
temperature (SAT) which will continue over the 21st century if the anthropogenic
greenhouse gases keep on emitting with the current rate. Geographical patterns of
projected surface air temperature warming show greatest temperature increases over
land (roughly twice the global average temperature increase) and at high northern
latitudes, and less warming over the southern oceans and North Atlantic, consistent
with observations during the latter part of the 20th century. The equilibrium global
mean surface temperature warming for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide is
likely to lay in the range 2°C to 4.5°C, with a most likely value of about 3°C. It is
very likely that heat waves will be more intense, more frequent and longer lasting
in a future warmer climate. Cold episodes are projected to decrease significantly
in a future warmer climate. Almost everywhere, daily minimum temperatures are
projected to increase faster than daily maximum temperatures, leading to a decrease
in diurnal temperature range (see Figure 1(a), 1(b), 1(c), & 1(d)). Decreases in frost
days are projected to occur almost everywhere in the middle and high latitudes,
with a comparable increase in growing season length (AR 4, 2007 & AR 5, 2013,
The Physical Science basis).
Anthropogenic influence (GHG responsible for global warming while aerosol
for global cooling) on climate has been robustly detected on the global scale, but
for many applications an estimate of the anthropogenic contribution to recent
temperature trends over a particular region is more useful. However, detection
and attribution of climate change at continental and smaller scales is more difficult
than on the global scale for several reasons. In the last five to six decades global
temperature as well as Asian continent temperature is increasing at its critical limit,
moreover anthropogenic forces are the major contributor (see Figure 1).

Evidences from Indian Subcontinent

Indian subcontinent is also not an exception for the changes in surface temperature
due to climate change. Temperature variability across the country was studied
by Kumar and Hingane (1988); Pant and Hingane (1988); Kumar and Parikh
(1998); showed a significant warming trend of 0.57°C per 100 years in India for
1881–1997, seasonally and annually. The magnitude of warming was higher in
the post-monsoon and winter seasons. The monsoon temperature did not show a
significant trend in any major parts of the country, except for a significant negative
trend over northwest India. Mean annual temperature was found to be increasing in
all India level, in the west coast, interior peninsula, north central and north-eastern
regions during the period 1901-1982 (Hingane et. al., 1985).
 Figure 1: (a) Estimated trend of observed global mean surface temperature
Global Warming and Climatic Sensitivity:...
593

Figure 1: (b) Estimated trend of contribution of volcanoes in global mean surface temperature
 594

Figure 1: (c) Estimated trend of contribution of solar in global mean surface temperature
Man In India

Figure 1: (d) Estimated contributions of anthropogenic in global mean surface temperature

Source: AR 5, Climate change 2013, The Physical Science basis
Note: Trends have been estimated on specific data/studies/methods as Hadley Centre/ Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data set version
3 (black line) and the best multivariate fits using the method of Lean and Rtnd (2009) (red line), Lockwood (2008) (violet line), Folland et. al., (2013)
(green line) and Kaufmann et. al., (2011) (blue line).
 Global Warming and Climatic Sensitivity:... 595

Trend analyses of maximum and minimum temperature data at 121 stations in

India for 1901-1987 by Rupa Kumar et. al., (1994) showed increasing maximum
temperature, minimum temperature did not show any pattern, resulting in rise in
mean and diurnal range of temperature. For the last 100 years, there was an increase
of 0.42°C in the annual mean temperature, 0.92°C in the mean maximum temperature
and 0.09°C in the mean minimum temperature. There was a rise of 1.1°C in mean
winter temperature, 0.94°C in mean post-monsoon temperature, and a decline of
0.40°C in mean pre-monsoon temperature for the last century in India (Arora et. al.,
2005). Frequency of occurrence of hot days and hot nights showed an increasing
trend, whereas cold days and cold nights showed a decreasing trend during the
period 1970–2005 in India as a whole and seven homogeneous regions. For the
last 100 years in India, the annual mean, maximum and minimum temperatures
showed significant warming trends of 0.51°C, 0.72°C and 0.27°C, respectively.
Indian mean annual and seasonal temperatures also showed a significant warming
trend in all seasons (Kothawale et. al., 2010).

Temperature Trend in Uttarakhand

The climate of Uttarakhand is temperate, marked by seasonal variations in
temperature but also affected by tropical monsoons. January is the coldest month,
with daily high temperatures averaging below freezing in the north and near 70°F
(21°C) in the southeast. In the north, July is the hottest month, with temperatures
typically rising from the mid -40s F (about 7°C) to about 70°F daily. In the southeast,
May is the warmest month, with daily temperatures normally reaching the low 100s
F (about 38°C) from a low around 80°F (27°C). Most of the states roughly 60 inches
(1,500 mm) of annual precipitation are brought by the southwest monsoon, which
blows from July through September. Floods and landslides are problems during
the rainy season in the lower stretches of the valleys. In the northern parts of the
state, 10 to 15 feet (3 to 5 meters) of snowfall is common between December and
March (Sati & Kumar, 2013).
Analysis of temperature data of Mountainous regions of Uttarakhand showed
that the surface maximum temperature over the region has significantly increased
annually and seasonally during the last five to six decades. If see the pattern of
temperature of last three to four decades in the region it is found that annual mean
maximum temperature of Mukhim (TM_Mmax_Annual) and Mukteshwar (TR_Mmax_
Annual) weather station, and highest annual maximum temperature of Mukhim
(TM_Hmax_Annual) and Mukteshwar (TR_Hmax_Annual) is increasing. Annual mean
minimum temperature and lowest minimum temperature of both weather stations
are having opposite trend; annul mean minimum temperature (TM_Mmin_Annual) and
 596
Man In India

Figure 2: Trends of following indicators of climate

 Global Warming and Climatic Sensitivity:...

Figure 3: Trends of following indicators of climate;

597
598 Man In India

annual lowest minimum temperature (TM_Lmin_Annual) of Mukhim weather station

is getting decreased on the contrary annual mean minimum temperature (TR_Mmin_
Annual) and annual lowest minimum temperature (TR_Lmin_Annual) of Mukteshwar
weather station is getting increased (see Figure 2 and 3).
Annual trend of mean maximum temperature of Mukhim weather station
(TM_Mmax_Annual), Annual trend of highest maximum temperature of Mukhim station
(TM_Hmax_Annual), Annual trend of mean minimum temperature of Mukhim weather
station (TM_Mmin_Annual), and Annual trend of lowest minimum temperature of
Mukhim weather station (TM_Lmin_Annual)
Annual trend of mean maximum temperature of Mukteshwar weather station
(TR_Mmax_Annual), Annual trend of highest maximum temperature of Mukteshwar
weather station (TR_Hmax_Annual), Mean minimum temperature trend of Mukteshwar
weather station (TR_Mmin_Annual), and Lowest minimum temperature trend of
Mukteshwar weather station (TR_Lmin_Annual).
Data collected from Mukhim weather station is showing incline of 0.19°C
year-1, 0.15°C year-1, -0.24°C year-1, and -0.14°C year-1 in annual mean maximum
temperature (TM_Mmax_Annual), annual highest maximum temperature (TM_Hmax_Annual),
annual mean minimum temperature (TM_Mmin_Annual), and annual lowest minimum
temperature (TM_Lmin_Annual), respectively, on the contrary data collected from
Mukteshwar weather station is showing incline of 0.04°C year-1, 0.02°C year-1,
0.07°C year-1, and 0.06°C year-1 for annual mean maximum temperature (TR_
Mmax_Annual), annual highest maximum temperature (TR_Hmax_Annual), annual mean
minimum temperature (TR_Mmin_Annual), and annual lowest minimum temperature
(TR_Lmin_Annual) respectively. Result of Mann-Kendall trend test regarding agricultural
land use pattern is facilitated in the Table 1.
Table 1: Sen’s estimator of slope for various heads of
temperature in Uttarakhand

Kendall’s Sen’s Confidence

Particulars S r-value
tau estimator interval
TM_Mmax_Annual +0.725 217 < 0.0001 +0.18* 0.175 to 0.194
TM_Mmin_Annual –0.513 –154 0 –0.23* –0.254 to –0.211
TR_Mmax_Annual +0.364 109 0.012 +0.03* 0.023 to 0.027
TR_Mmin_Annual +0.297 82 0.044 +0.07* 0.067 to 0.079
(*) Values are significant at 95percent confidence level.

As the computed r-value is lower than the significance level α = 0.05, Therefore,
Null Hypothesis (H0: there is no trend in the series) is rejected, i.e., Alternative
Hypothesis (HA: there is a trend in the series) is selected.
 Global Warming and Climatic Sensitivity:... 599

Seasonal Trend: Winter Cropping Season

Winter is longest season of Uttarakhand. In most parts of the hilly region, winter sets
in during the end of November and continues until in the end of March with increase
in the day temperature. Temperature goes lowest during winter in hills, especially
in upper tracts of Uttarakhand. A thick blanket of snow covers the ground for three
to four months during this season in higher reaches. Snowfall occurs usually over
the elevation of 2,200 m. Frost is experienced in the valleys and terai and bhabhar
tracts. Avalanches and snowstorms are common above the snow line in the winter
season (Tripathi, S.K. & Chintamanie, B., 2010).
If see the winter season pattern of temperature of last three to four decades
in the region it is found that mean maximum temperature during winter season of
Mukhim (TM_Mmax_winter) and Mukteshwar (TR_Mmax_winter) weather station, and
highest maximum temperature during winter season of Mukhim (TM_Hmax_winter)
and Mukteshwar (TR_Hmax_winter) is increasing. Mean minimum temperature and
lowest minimum temperature of winter season of both weather stations are having
opposite trend; mean minimum temperature (TM_Mmin_winter) and lowest minimum
temperature (TM_Lmin_winter) during winter season of Mukhim weather station is
getting decreased on the contrary mean minimum temperature (TR_Mmin_winter) and
lowest minimum temperature (TR_Lmin_winter) during winter season of Mukteshwar
weather station is getting increased (see Figure 4 and 5).
Mean maximum temperature of Mukhim weather station during winter season
(TM_MMax_Winter), highest maximum temperature of Mukhim weather station during
winter season (TM_HMax_Winter), Mean minimum temperature of Mukhim weather
station during winter season (TM_MMin_Winter), and Lowest mean temperature of
Mukhim weather station during winter season (TM_LMin_Winter).
Mean maximum temperature of Mukteshwar weather station during winter
season (TR_MMax_Winter), highest maximum temperature of Mukteshwar weather
station during winter season (T R_HMax_Winter), Mean minimum temperature
of Mukteshwar weather station during winter season (TR_MMin_Winter), and
Lowest mean temperature of Mukteshwar weather station during winter season
(TR_LMin_Winter).
Data collected from Mukhim weather station is showing incline of 0.22°C year-1,
0.15°C year-1, -0.14°C year-1, and -0.03°C year-1 in mean maximum temperature
(TM_Mmax_winter), highest maximum temperature (TM_Hmax_winter), mean minimum
temperature (TM_Mmin_winter), and lowest minimum temperature (TM_Lmin_winter) of
winter season, respectively, on the contrary data collected from Mukteshwar weather
station is showing incline of 0.03°C year-1, 0.04°C year-1, 0.06°C year-1, and
 600
Man In India

Figure 4: Trends of following indicators of climate

 Global Warming and Climatic Sensitivity:...

Figure 5: Trends of following indicators of climate

601
602 Man In India

0.07°C year-1 for mean maximum temperature (TR_Mmax_winter), highest maximum

temperature (TR_Hmax_winter), mean minimum temperature (TR_Mmin_winter), and lowest
minimum temperature (TR_Lmin_winter) of winter season, respectively.

Seasonal trend: Summer Cropping Season

If see the summer season pattern of temperature of last three to four decades in
the region it is found that mean maximum temperature during summer season of
Mukhim (TM_Mmax_summer) and Mukteshwar (TR_Mmax_summer) weather station, and
highest maximum temperature during summer season of Mukhim (TM_Hmax_summer)
and Mukteshwar (TR_Hmax_summer) is increasing. Mean minimum temperature and
lowest minimum temperature of summer season of both weather stations are having
opposite trend; mean minimum temperature (TM_Mmin_summer) and lowest minimum
temperature (TM_Lmin_summer) during summer season of Mukhim weather station is
getting decreased on the contrary mean minimum temperature (TR_Mmin_summer) and
lowest minimum temperature (TR_Lmin_summer) during summer season of Mukteshwar
weather station is getting increased (see image 2.6 and 2.7).
Data collected from Mukhim weather station is showing incline of 0.13°C
year-1, 0.12°C year-1, -0.29°C year-1, and -0.23°C year-1 in mean maximum
temperature (TM_Mmax_summer), highest maximum temperature (TM_Hmax_summer),
mean minimum temperature (TM_Mmin_summer), and lowest minimum temperature
(TM_Lmin_summer) of winter season, respectively, on the contrary data collected from
Mukteshwar weather station is showing incline of 0.01°C year-1, 0.01°C year-1,
0.07°C year-1, and 0.06°C year-1 for mean maximum temperature (TR_Mmax_summer),
highest maximum temperature (TR_Hmax_summer), mean minimum temperature
(TR_Mmin_summer), and lowest minimum temperature (TR_Lmin_summer) of winter
season, respectively.
Mean maximum temperature of Mukhim weather station during summer season
(TM_MMax_Summer), highest maximum temperature of Mukhim weather station during
summer season (TM_HMax_Summer), Mean minimum temperature of Mukhim weather
station during summer season (TM_MMin_Summer), and Lowest mean temperature of
Mukhim weather station during summer season (TM_LMin_Summer).
Mean maximum temperature of Mukteshwar weather station during summer
season (TR_MMax_Summer) highest maximum temperature of Mukteshwar weather
station during summer season (TR_HMax_Summer), Mean minimum temperature
of Mukteshwar weather station during summer season (TR_MMin_Summer), and
Lowest mean temperature of Mukteshwar weather station during summer season
(TR_LMin_Summer).
 Global Warming and Climatic Sensitivity:...

Figure 6: Trends of following indicators of climate

603
 604
Man In India

Figure 7: Trends of following indicators of climate

 Global Warming and Climatic Sensitivity:... 605

Conclusion
Accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere since the beginning of
industrial revolution is largely responsible for the current warming and changes to
global climate that are witnessing today. Global as well as regional evidences are
showing that global climate has got changed and the mean temperature of the planet
has gone up and it continues to go up at an increasing rate. Mountainous evidences
of rapid climate change have now throwing drastic impact over the entire globe. This
can have unprecedented effects on agriculture, food supply, biodiversity and human
health of outreach population of Mountains. It can be seen that global warming is the
by product of human development which has been and still largely driven by fossil
energy. But, the economic costs of environmental damage are being paid by the
cultivators of high altitude agriculture zones. Unprecedented change in the climatic
phenomenon as, rising temperature, erratic precipitation, and increasing hazardous
events are responsible factors which causing decreasing rain-fed agriculture in the
high altitude agriculture zone in the region.

Reference
Arora, M., Goel, N.K. and Singh, P. (2005). Evaluation of temperature trends over India.
Hydrological Sciences Journal. 50 (1): 81-93.
Blunden, J. and Arndt, D.S. (Eds). (2013). State of the Climate in 2012. Bulletin of American.
Meteorological Society. 94 (8): S1-S238.
Etheridge, D.M., Steele, L.P., Langenfelds, R.L., Francey, R.J., Barnola, J.M. and Morgan, V.I.
(1996). Natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years
from air in Antarctic ice and firn. Journal of Geophysical Research. 101(D2): 4115-4128.
Folland, C.K., et. al., (2013). High predictive skill of global surface temperature a year ahead.
Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 761-767.
Feulner G., Rahmstorf S., Levermann A., Volkwardt S. (2013). On the origin of the surface air
temperature difference between the hemispheres in earth’s present-day climate, Journal of
Climate, 26(18): 7136-7150. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00636.1
Francey, R.J. and Farquhar, G.D. (1982). An explanation of 13C/12C variations in tree rings.
Nature. 297: 28-31.
Graedel, T.E. and McRae, J.E. (1980). On the possible increase of the atmospheric methane and
carbon monoxide concentrations during the last decade. Geophysical Research Letters.
7(11): 977-979.
HDR (Human Development Report). (2007/2008). Fighting climate change: Human solidarity
in a divided world. Published for United Nations Development Programme by Palgrave
Macmillan, New York.
Hingane, L.S., Kumar, K.R. and Murthy, B.V.R. (1985). Long term trends of surface air
temperature in India. Journal of Climatology. 5: 521-528.
Indermühle, A., Stocker, T.F., Joos, F., Fischer, H., Smith, H.J., Wahlen, M., Deck, B.,
Mastroianni, D., Tschumi, J., Blunier, T., Meyer, R. and Stauffer, B. (1999). Holocene
carbon-cycle dynamics based on CO2 trapped in ice at Taylor Dome, Antarctica. Nature.
398: 121-126.
606 Man In India

IPCC, (2013). Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and
New York, NY, USA.
IPCC, (2007). Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Climate Change 2007: Impacts Adaptation
and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof,
P.J. vander Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Kaufmann, R.K., Kauppi, H., Mann, M.L. and Stock, J.H. (2011). Reconciling anthropogenic
climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 108,
11790-11793.
Keeling, R.F. and Shertz, S.R. (1992). Seasonal and interannual variations in atmospheric oxygen
and implications for the global carbon cycle. Nature. 358:723-727.
Keeling, R.F., Najjar, R.P., Bender, M.L. and Tans, P.P. (1993). What atmospheric oxygen
measurements can tell us about the global carbon cycle, Global Biogeochemical Cycles.
7(1): 37-67.
Kumar, K.S.K. and Parikh, J. (1998). Climate change impacts on India agriculture. The Ricardian
approach. In: Measuring the impacts of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture, Technical
paper No.402.World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Kumar, K.R. and Hingane, L.S .(1988). Long term variations of surface air temperature at major
industrial cities of India. Climatic change. 13: 287-307.
Kothawale, D.R., Munot, A.A. and Kumar, K.K. (2010). Surface air temperature variability over
India during 1901-2007, and its association with ENSO. Climate Research. 42: 89-104.
Le Treut, H., Somerville, R., Cubasch, U., Ding, Y., Mauritzen, C., Mokssit, A., Peterson, T. and
Prather, M. (2007). Historical Overview of Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2007: The
Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z.
Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Lean, J.L., and Rind, D.H. (2009). How will Earth’s surface temperature change in future decades?
Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15708.
Lockwood, M., and Frohlich, C. (2008). Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings
and the global mean surface air temperature: II. Different reconstructions of the total solar
irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale. Proc. R. Soc. London A, 464,
1367-1385.
Neftel, A., Moor, E., Oeschger, H. and Stauffer, B. (1985). Evidence from polar ice cores for the
increase in atmospheric CO2 in the past two centuries. Nature. 315:45-47.
Pant, G.B. and Kumar, K.R. (1997). Climates of South Asia, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., West
Sussex, UK. 320 pp.
Richard, M.A., Brian, H.H., Stephanie, L. and Neil, L. (1998). Effects of global climate change
on agriculture: an interpretative review. Climate Research. 11: 19-30.
Rosenzweig, C. and Hillel, D. (1995). Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and
World Food Supply. Consequences (Summer):24-32.
 Global Warming and Climatic Sensitivity:... 607

Rosenzweig, C. and Liverman, D. (1992). Predicted effects of climate change on agriculture:

A comparison of temperate and tropical regions. In Global climate change: Implications,
challenges, and mitigation measures, ed. S.K. Majumdar, 342-61. PA: The Pennsylvania
Academy of Sciences.
Sati M.C. and Kumar, Prashant (2013). Climate Change and Hill Agriculture: A case study of
Uttarakhand state of Indian Himalaya. In J. Sundaresan et. al., (Ed.), Climate Change and
Himalaya. Scientific Publisher, India.
Sutton, R.T., Dong, B. and Gregory, J.M. (2007). Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate
change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations. Geophysical Research
Letters. 34(2): L02701, doi:10.1029/2006GL028164.
Tripathi, S.K. & Chintamanie, B. (2010). Climate Change and Agriculture over Uttarakhand.
In GSLHVPrasad Rao, GGSN Rao and VUM Rao (Ed.). Climate Change and Agriculture
Over India (pp. 259-268), Eastern Economy Edition, PHI Learning Private Limited, New
Delhi.