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Probability and Statistics Engineering Data Analysis

BS Civil Engineering (BSCE) (Araullo University)

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COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING

Preface
Probability and Statistics / Engineering Data Analysis is an important topic, because
it is based on so much of what we take for granted. Without probability theory the insurance
and gaming industries will not be feasible. Most of modern finance is focused on statistics
and probability. So much modern research, both physical and social, without the methods of
statistical analysis would be grinding to a halt.

It is sad, despite its value, that so many students consider statistics a challenging
course because they are trying to get through the course with sheer memorization. Statistics
is a problem-solving topic and when problem-solving skills are needed a memorization
technique does not work well.

Statistics is a subject that seeks to get students to think in different ways, to see the
world around them from viewpoints they haven't used. When you understand the facts, you
can see the world in a way that you don't even know exists.

We apologize in advance for the module's typos and errors. Hope you'll enjoy
learning more about Engineering Data Analyis.
UNIT I. OBTAINING DATA
Overview
The main aim of this Module 1 is to address data collection methods, sample size
determination, using the Sloven’s formula and Gary's appropriate sample size depending on
the type of study, and to distinguish Probability Sampling to Non-Probability Sampling.

Learning Objectives

At the end of this module, I am capable to:

1. Differentiate direct and indirect method in collecting data;

2. Determine the most appropriate way of selecting a sample and obtaining data in a
particular study;
3. Identify the different Sampling Techniques for Non-Probability and Probability
Sampling; and
4. Apply statistics in research and in any systematic investigation.

Topics

1.1 Methods of Obtaining Data

1.2 Sample Size
1.3 Sampling Plans
1.4 Sampling Techniques
1.4.1 Probability Sampling
1.4.2 Non-Probability Sampling

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1
Setting up

Name: Date: Course/Year/Section:

Directions: Write the word/phrase that is described in the following statement.

1. Is a method to convert information about the results.

2. Refers to facts concerning things such as status in life of people,

defectiveness of objects or effect of an event to the society.

3. A sort of survey encompassing the entire population. It is conducted by

PSA(NSO) once every decade to update information about the Philippines. 4.

A general term for the sampling technique that gives element for the

population equal chance to be selected as a sample.

5. The margin of error in computing the size of the reservation.

6. The parameter N stands for;

7. Any observable characteristics of a sample of a population usually

represented by letter;

8. Is a person to person interaction

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9. Written responses are obtained by distributing questionnaire to

respondent

10. The Sloven’s Formula.

2
Lesson Proper

OBTAINING DATA

Data point to statistical facts, principles, opinion and varied items of different

sources. Statistics is a tool for converting data into information.

Methods of Data Collection

There are two main methods of collecting data these are direct and indirect method.

1. Direct Methods are interviews, observation and documentation (documentary

analysis),

a. Interview

Classified as formal and informal.

In a formal interview the interviewer uses an interview guide or a set of questions

during the interview process and set the schedule of the respondent or the interviewer.

In an informal interview the researcher is free to ask questions without using a guide
so that there is no limit to the information obtained during an interview.

b. Observation

In qualitative research it is usually consists of detailed notation on behavior, events

and the context surrounding the events and behavior.

In quantitative analysis, data on the number of events is typically collected over a given

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period of time.

c. Documentary Analysis

When the researcher obtains the information directly from the source.

2. Indirect Methods

a. Survey

A Survey solicits information from people.

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Example:
Pre-election polls, marketing surveys etc. Survey may be administered in a variety of
ways.
a. Telephone interview and
b. Self-Administered Questionnaire
Questionnaire design

Key design principles

1. Keep the questionnaire as short as possible.
2. Ask short, simple and clearly worded questions.
3. Starts with demographic questions to help respondents get started comfortably.
4. Use dichotomous (yes/no) and multiple-choice questions.
5. Use open ended questions cautiously.
6. Avoid using leading questions.
7. Protest a questionnaire on a small number of people.
8. Think about the way you intend to use the collected data when preparing the
questionnaire.

A questionnaire is one of the common sources or method of gathering data. It can be

classified as open-ended and close-ended.

Examples of questionnaire

1. Open- Ended questionnaire

____ Age

____ Sex

____ Civil Status

____ Average Monthly Income

2. Close- Ended questionnaire

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Age Civil Status

____ 20 - 30 yrs. Old ____ Single

____ 31 - 40 yrs. Old ____ Married

____ 41 – 50 yrs. Old ____ Widow/er

____ 51 and above ____ Single parent

Sex

____ Male

____ Female

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3. Experiments

It is used when the objective is to determine the cause and effect of a certain
phenomenon under some controlled conditions.

Sampling

Strategies which enable a researcher to pick a sub group as a basis for making
judgments about a larger group.

Steps in sampling

1. Identify the population

2. Determine the number of observation or size.
3. Select the sample

Number of observation, n

1. Slovin’s Formula

�� =��
1 + ����2

Where

N = population size
n = sample size
e = margin of error
2. Gary’s recommended number of observation on the following type of research.

1. Descriptive research – 10% of the population, for smaller population it

should at least be 20%.
2. Correlation research = 30% subjects
3. Causal comparative research – 15% subjects/ group
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4. Experimental research = 15 subjects per group or 30 subjects per group.

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Sampling plans

A sampling plan is simply a system or process for deciding how a population should
take the sample.

Sampling Techniques

Probability Sampling

It is a sampling of probability in which each item of the total number of observations

has equal chances of being selected.

a. Simple Random Sampling

A sampling technique using the concept of lottery or fish bowl method. For example,
if you computed 50 samples out of 200, you may write down the names or numbers on
sheets of papers up to 200 and place in a box mixed thoroughly. Then start drawing the
paper until you obtain the 50 samples.

b. Systematic Sampling

A sampling technique which selects sample units by every kth members of a

population after arranging perhaps alphabetically or other sort. Let say for instance every
fifth member, meaning to say the 5th, 10th, 15th, etc.

�� =����
If N = 100

n = 20
100
then �� =
20

k=5

So, every 5th member is quantified as a sample.

c. Stratified Random Sampling

A sampling technique where the population is first divided into subsets based on
homogeneity called strata.
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For example, in a College of Engineering student’s population, the stratifications are

according to sex (male and female).

d. Cluster Sampling

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A sampling technique which occurs when one selects the members of a sample in
cluster rather than in using separate individuals. It is a sampling where groups, not
individuals, are randomly selected.

NON-PROBABILITY SAMPLING

This type of sampling does not require a random process.

TYPES OF NON-PROBABILITY SAMPLING

1. Purposive Sampling

The sample respondents are selected based on certain criteria laid down by the
researcher. For example, a researcher might want to find whether the residential house in a
subdivision ABC comply with building fire requirements. Instead of interviewing the owners
of all residential houses in subdivision ABC, he can purposely choose to interview the
owners of 20 residential houses in subdivision ABC.

2. Quota Sampling

The samples are selected using quota system. For instance, in a survey about the
opinion of all college students in Di Mapigilan City about the position regarding the teleserye
of ABS-CBN “Love My Woman”. The researcher can assign quota system, let’s say 150 college
students are the respondents.

3. Convenience Sampling

The researcher picks the sample respondents from the population that he finds
convenient to interview due to their availability or accessibility. For example, a researcher
might want to find out the popularity of a certain candidate in Ms. Earth 2020. He might
choose his respondents within his barangay since this is more convenient for him.

References

Triola, M.F,1992 - Elementary Statistics 6th edition Addison-Wesley Publishing Company,

Inc.

Walpole, R.E, Myers, R.H., Myers, S.L, and K.ye,2002 -Probability and Statistics for Scientist
and Engineers, 7th ed. Pearson Education, Inc.

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7
Assessing Learning

Activity 1

Name: ________________________________________ Score: ______________

Course/Year/Section: _______________________ Date: _______________ Direction/s:
Match Column A with Column B

AB

1. This known as area of Sampling. A. Systematic Random Sampling 2. The total

number of observations is B. Purposive Sampling divided into subset based on

homogeneity.

3. Commonly known as lottery or fish C. Stratified Sampling bowl

technique.

4. Every nth member of the will be D. Cluster Sampling selected as

sample. E. Quota Sampling

5. The number of respondents is about F. Simple Random Sampling 150

persons.

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Activity 2
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Name: ________________________________________ Score: ______________

Course/Year/Section: _______________________ Date: _______________

Direction/s: Classify each sample as simple random, systematic stratified, cluster, quota,
convenience and purposive sampling.

1. Every 15th customer entering a shopping mall is asked to select his or her

favorite store.

2. Mrs. Cruz writes the name of each student in a card, shuffles the cards and

then draws names.

3. A construction foreman selects 10 laborers from each floor of the building.

4. Supervisors are selected using random numbers in order to determine

annual salaries.

5. In a university, all teachers from three campuses are interviewed to

determine whether they believe the students have higher grades now

than in previous years.

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Activity 3

Name: ________________________________________ Score: ______________

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Course/Year/Section: _______________________ Date: _______________

1. Explain why there is a need to plan for the method of collecting data in any
investigation/ research.

2. Discuss the best method of collecting data in the research entitled Cultural
Practices of Aetas in Zambales.

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3. Determine the sample size or number of observations of the following given
population size with the corresponding margin of errors?
a. N=500 ; e=5%
b. N=3600; e= 7%
c. N =20,000 ; e = 10%

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4. There are 8000 students with an error of 5%, what is the number of students
to be considered as the respondent of the study?

11
UNIT II. Probability

Overview

Module II begins with the definitions of counting principles, presentations and

combination. The knowledge in this topic is important in determining the number of ways of

arranging or selecting objects. Also discuss the Experiment, Sample Space, Events and the

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probability of simple event and rules.

Learning Objectives

At the end of the unit, I am able to:

5. Define Permutation and Combination;

6. Explain the concepts of experiment, sample space and event;

7. Compute the probability; and

8. Apply the rules of probability in simple or successive events.

Topics

2.1 Counting Techniques

2.2 Permutation and Combination

2.3 Probability

2.4 Rules on Probability

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Setting up

Name: Date: Course/Year/Section:

Directions: Multiple Choice. Choose the correct letter on the space provided.

1. Arrangement of distinct object with regard to order.

a. Combination c. Counting Technique b. Permutation d. Sample Point 2.

The total number of outcomes of an experiment.

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a. Sample Point c. Sample Space S b. Event d. Subset

3. An activity of doing something is:

a. Experiment c. Sample space S b. Event d. Sample Point 4. The

probability of impossible event is:

a. Infinite c. 1

b. 0 d. -2

5. The probability of events occurs every time:

a. Cannot be determined c. 0

b. 1 d. Infinite

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Lesson Proper

1. Fundamental Principle of Counting.

The fundamental principle of counting states that if one choice can be done in n,
ways and another choice can be done in n2 ways, together the choice can be done in n, n2
ways.
Example:
1. Students are classified according to gender (male or female), regular or irregular
students and field of specialization (mathematics, physics, or computer literate).
Solution:
η1 = 2 ������ ������������
η2 = 2 ������ �������������� ���� ������������������
η3 = 3 ���������� ���� ����������������������������
��, �� ��2 �� ��3 = 2 �� 2 �� 3 = 12 ��������.
2. A contractor has 4 style of homes, each with 3 style of comports,4 style of decks, and 5
style of roofing How many possible classification are there?

Solution:
�� 1 = 4
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�� 2 = 3
�� 3 = 4
�� 4 = 5
��, �� ��2 �� ��3 �� ��4 = (4) (3) (4) (5)
= 240 ��������
3. How many three digit number can be formed from the digits 1,2,3,4 and 5 if:
a. Repetition of digits are allowed?
b. Repetition of digits are not allowed?
c. The number must be odd?
Solution:
a. Since there are three choices to fill each of the three spaces.
555= 125 ways
b. 54 3 = 60 ways
c. If the number must be odd, then the last digit must be 1,3 or 5 only
433 = 36 ways

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PERMUTATION

A permutation is an arrangement of objects with regards to order.

Example: The set of the letters r j c if we use all of them, can be arrange in the following
orders �� �� �� , �� �� �� , �� �� �� , �� �� �� ,�� �� �� ,�� �� ��.

We set that there are six permutations.

Factorials; �� !
�� ! = �� (�� − 1)(�� − 2) … … … 1
Define:
0! = 1 and 1! = 1
Say �� = 5
5! = 5 (5 − 1) (5 − 2) (5 − 3) (5 − 4)
= 5(4)(3)(2)(1)
= 120

Permutations:

1. The number of arrangements of distinct objects taken all at a time is,

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������ = ��!

Example: How many arrangements can 5 girls be seated in a row of 5 chairs?

5��5 = 5!

= 120 ��������.
2. The number of arrangements of distinct objects taken r objects at a time is.

������ =��!

(�� − ��)!

Example: How many different ways can a chair person and an assistant chairperson be
selected for a research project if there are 6 statisticians

Solution:
�� = 6
�� = 2

6��2 =6!
(6 − 2)!=6.5.4.3.2.1
4321
= 30 ��������.

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3. The number of permutation of n object are alike.

�� =��!
��, ! ��2! … ����!
Example: How many arrangement can be done from the word,
a. STATISTICS
b. PROBABILITY

Solution:

a. �� = 10
��1 = 3 ��’��
��2 = 3 ��’��
��3 = 2 ��’��

�� =10!
3! 3! 2!

=10.9.8.7.6.5.4.3.2.1
3.2.1 3.2.1 2.1
= 50,400
b. �� = 11

��, = 2 ��’��

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��2 = 2 ��’��

�� =11!
2! 2!
= 9,979,200

Circular Permutation

If n objects are arranged in a circle, the number of permutation is (n-1)

Example: In how many arrangements can 7 heads be put together to form a bracelet?
Solution:
�� = 7
�� = (�� − 1)!
= (7 − 1)!
= 6!
= 6.5.4.3.2.1
= 720 ��������

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Combination

Combination is an arrangement of objects without regard to order.

������ , ������, ������, ������, ������,������

Example 1: In order to survey the opinions of costumer at Jillian’s department store, a

research decides to select 4 department stores from a certain area with a total of 8
department store. How many selections can be made?
Solution:

8C4 =8!
(8 − 4)! 4!

=8!
4! 4!
= 70 ������������������ ��������.

Probability

We define an experiment to be any process that yields data. The data obtained
maybe numerical or non-numerical. The set S whose elements are all potential outcomes
from an experiment in what is called the sample space. The element of sample space is
called sample points.
Example:

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1. Toss a die. There are six possible outcomes depending on the numbers that appears
on the upturned face of a die.
�� = ⦋1,2,3,4,5,6⦌
2. Toss two coins
�� = ⦋����, ����, ����, ����⦌

Event is a subgroup of sample space.

From example 1:
������
�� = ⦋2,4,6⦌
��ℎ����
�� ���� ��ℎ�� ���������� ��ℎ���� ���� �������� ������������ ����������
������ℎ���� ���� �������� �� ������.

17
Probability of an Event

The probability of an event is the chance a certain event would be take place.

��(��) =��(��)

����

Properties of Probability:

1. The probability of an event A is O ≤P(E)≤1.

2. The probability of an impossible event is P(ø)=0.
3. The probability of sure event is P(S)=1.

Example:
1. In tossing 2 coins. Find the probability of getting:
a. All heads
b. At least one tail appear

Solution:
S = {����, ����, ����, ����}
a. Let
C = {����}
P(C) =14

b. �� = {����, ����, ����}

P(��) =34
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2. A class contain 12 humanities,15 English, and 18 zoology students. A student is

chosen at random to represent the class. Find the following probability. a. A humanities
student

12
��(��) = 45 ⁄
b. A English student
15
��(��) = 45 ⁄
c. A zoology student
18
��(��) = 45 ⁄

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Rules on Probability 70
P (A U B) =
50
1. If A and B are any two events then. 120+
��(������) = ��(��) + ��(��) − 20
120+
��(�� ∩ ��). 120
If A and B are mutually exclusive
100
events then =
��(�� ∪ ��) = ��(��) + ��(��) 120
2. If A’ is the complement of an event then ��
��(��′) = 1 − ��(��) = ��or 0.8333
Example 1:
P (A U B) = 20/120

A box contains 5 red, 2 white, and 3 green balls. If a ball is drawn at random, what is
the probability that it is.
a. Red.
b. Green.
c. Red or white.
d. Not green.
Solution:

a. ��(������) =510
b. ��(����������) =310
c. ��(��������) =510+210=710
d. ��(������ ����������) = 1 − ��(����������)
3
= 1 − 10
7
= 10
Example 2:
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Of 120 students, 70 are studying Calculus, 50 are studying Filipino and 20 are
studying Calculus and Filipino. Find the probability that the students
a. Is studying either Calculus or Filipino
b. Is studying neither Calculus nor Filipino

Solution:
Write the events
Let A = A student is studying Calculus
B = A student is studying Filipino
A ∩ B = Student are studying both Calculus and
Filipino
a. P (A U B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩ B)
P (A) = 70/120
P (B) = 50/120

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b. P (A U B)’ = 1 – P (A U B)
= 1 - 56
= ����

Using Venn Diagram:

AB

50 20 30

Calculus Filipino 20

Example 3:
The probability that a student will receive an A, B, C or incomplete in a course are
respectively 0.05, 0.15, 0.20, 0.25. Find the probability that the student will a.
Receive A or Incomplete
b. Get a B or a C
Solution:
a. P ( A or Inc.) = P (A) + P (Inc.)
= 0.05 + 0.2
= 0.30
b. P ( B or C ) = P (B) + P (C)
= 0.15 + 0.20
= 0.35

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References

Triola, M.F,1992 - Elementary Statistics 6th edition Addison-Wesley Publishing Company,

Inc.

Walpole, R.E, Myers, R.H., Myers, S.L, and K.ye,2002 -Probability and Statistics for Scientist
and Engineers, 7th ed. Pearson Education, Inc.

20
Assessing Learning

Activity 1

Name: Date: Course/Year/Section:

Directions: Answer the following questions.

1. A coin is tossed thrice. Find:

a. The sample space

b. The total number of sample point

c. The chance of getting exactly 3 heads

d. The chance of getting at least 1 tail

2. The sample space of tossing a fair die is:

S= {1,2,3,4,5,6}. Find the event of getting:

a. An odd number

b. A number less than 4

c. A number greater than or equal to 5

3. A card is drawn from a standard deck of cards.

What is the probability of getting?

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a. A queen of heart

b. A red card

c. An ace?

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Activity 2

Name: Date: Course/Year/Section:

Directions: Solve the following problems and show your complete solution.

1. License plate consist of three letters followed by three numbers. How many
different license plates are possible in the absence of repeat and the
a. Three-digit number must be even?
b. Three digit numbers must be greater than 600?
c. First digit in the three digit number cannot be 0?

2. How many arrangement can 6 people sit on a round table?

a. If there are no restriction
b. If two particular persons want to sit next to each other.

3. A bowl has 4 blue, 5 red and 3 white balls. If a ball is picked randomly, find the
probability that:
a. it is a red ball
b. it is not a blue ball
c. it is a white or red ball
d. it is not red nor blue ball.

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Activity 3

Name: Date: Course/Year/Section:

Directions: Solve the following problems and show your complete solution.

1. In Mathematics Club, The probability that a member is picked at random is an

engineer is 0.65, The probability that the member is female is 0.74, and the
probability that the member is a female engineer is 0.55 find the probability that a.
The member is an engineer or a female.
b. The member is neither an engineer nor a female.

2. Paulo wants to buy a special ink for his printer. The probability that university
bookstore carries it is 0.4 and the probability that MIG store carries it 0.3. Assuming
the two stores stock the item independently find the probability
a. That both store carries the item.
b. That neither store carries the item.

3. The Probability that a student study is 0.68. Given that she studies, the probability
that she will pass a course are 0.75. Given that she does not study, the probability
that she will pass the course is 0.43. What is the probability that,
a. She will study and pass the course.

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b. She will not study and will pass the course

c. She will pass the course.

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UNIT III. Random Variables and Their Probability Distribution

Overview

Module III deals with random variables, the probability distribution discrete and
continuous random variable. The Binomial Distribution, Poisson Distribution, and the
Normal Distribution.

Learning Objectives

At the end of the unit, I am able to:

1. Explain the concept of random variable;
2. Find the possible values of a random variable; and
3. Differentiate discrete variable and continuous variable.
4. Understand the concept and properties of discrete and;
5. Apply the binomial distribution and Poisson distribution model to a given
problem;
6. Differentiate Binomial distribution to Poisson Distribution;
7. Illustrate the concept of continuous random variable;
8. Describe the concept and properties of Normal distribution;
9. Find the areas under the normal curves;
10. Converting raw scores into Z-scores; and
11. Solve problems related to normal distribution.
Topics

a. Random Variables
3.1.1 Probability Mass Function
3.1.2 Expected Values of Random Variable
3.1.3 Types of Random Variables
b. Probability Distribution
3.2.1 Discrete Probability Distribution
3.2.1.1 The Binomial Distribution
3.2.1.2 The Poisson Distribution
3.2.2 Continuous Probability Distribution
3.2.2.1 Normal Distribution

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LESSON 1. Random Variables
Setting up

Name: Date: Course/Year/Section:

Directions: Answer the following questions.

Consider the experiment in which two coins are tossed.

1. What is the sample space of this experiment?

2. How many chances are there in the sample space?

3. Map each sequence to a real number if x represent the number of head in the
sequence.
a. HH
b. HT
c. TH
d. TT

4. Solve probabilities related to a probability of a random variable.

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5. Compute the mean, variance, and standard deviation of a discrete probability

distribution

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Lesson Proper

Random Variables and Probability Distributions

Definition:
A random variable is a variable (typically defined by x) that has a single numerical
value (determined by chance) for each out comes of an experiment.
Illustration
1. Tossing three coins.
Suppose three coins are tossed. Let x be the random variable representing the number of
heads that occur. Find the values of the random variable x.
Steps:
1. Determine the sample space. Let H represent head and T represent tail. 2. Count the
number of heads in each outcome in the sample space and assign this number to this
outcome
Solution:
S = { HHH , HHT , HTH , THH ,TTH , HTT , THT , TTT }

In table
Possible outcomes X (value of the random variable)
HHH 3
HHT 2
THH 2
HTH 2
TTH 1
HTT 1
THT 1
TTT 0
therefore
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X=0,1,2,3.

2. Two balls are drawn in succession without replacement from an urn containing 5 red
balls and 6 blue balls. Let y be the random variable representing the number if blue balls.
Find the values of the random variable Y. show in the table.

26
Solution:
S= { RR , RB , BR , BB , }

Possible outcomes Y (number of blue balls)

RB 0
RB 1
BR 1
BB 2
So, the possible values of the random variable
Y={0,1,2,}

Discrete and Continuous Variables

Discrete Random Variables has either a finite number of values or a countable

number of values.

Example:

1. Number of second year engineering students

2. Number of household in your barangay.

A Continuous random variable has infinitely many values, and those values can be
associated with measurements on a continuous scale.

Example:
1. The measure of voltage for a smoke detector battery.
2. The distance of certain type of car will travel using 10 litre of gasoline over a

prescribed test course! In addition to identifying values of a random variable, we can

often identify a probability for each value of the random variable.

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27
Probability Distribution
A Probability Distribution gives the probability for each value of the random
variable. Example:

1. Suppose three coins are tossed. Let x be the random variable representing the
number of heads that occur. Find the probability of each of the values of the random
variable x.

Solution:
S = { HHH , HHT , THH , HTH , TTH , HTT , THT , TTT }
X = the number of heads occur.
X = { 0 , 1 , 2 , 3. }
Number of x 0 1 2 3

Probability 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8

p (x)

2. Refer to example 2 on random variable find the probability distribution for the
number of blue balls.

Solution:
S = { RR , RB , BR , BB }
X=0,1,2

��( 0 ) =14
2 1
�� ( 0 ) = 4= 2
1
�� ( 2 ) = 4
The probability distribution
Number of blue balls ( y ) 0 1 2

Probability p ( y ) 1 1 1
4⁄ 2⁄ 4⁄

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Properties of Probability Distribution

1. The probability of each value of the random variable must be between or equal to 0
and 1.

�� ≤ �� (�� ) ≤ ��
2. The sum of the probabilities must be equal to 1

∑�� (�� ) = ��

Example does p (x ) is = x /10 ; where x can be 0,1,2,3 or 4

Determine a probability distribution, construct a histogram and show that

∑�� (�� ) = ��.

The Probability Mass Function

Another way of thinking about the probability distribution is to consider it as a

function,
��( �� )���� �� ���������������� ���� �� ���� �� ( �� ),��ℎ����
We can have the function with ordered Pan ( �� , �� (��))
In this case the discrete probability distribution becomes probability mass function
Example:

1. Tossing a coin thrice

x 0 1 2 3

f(x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8

P ( x ) = f ( x ) ; it follows that ∑ �� ( �� ) = 1.

The probability mass function can be graph by using histogram

29
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3/8

3/8
2/8

2/8

1/8

1/8

00123
00123

Expected Values of Random Variables

Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation of Discrete Probability Distribution

The probability histogram can give us insight into the nature of shape of the
distribution. Also we can often find the mean, variance and standard deviation of data w/c
provide insight into other characteristics.

Mean for Probability Distribution

�� = ∑��. �� (��)

�� = ��, ��(��) +x2 p (x2) + x3 p(x3)…..+ xn p(xn)

Variance

Ó2 = ∑ [( x-µ)2 – p(9x)]

Ó2 = ∑ x2. P (x) - µ2
Standard Deviation

Ó=√[∑��2. ��(��)] − µ²

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30
Example:

A recent survey by an insurance company showed the following probabilities for the
number of dependents each policy holder has. Find the mean and variance.
x 0 1 2 3 4

P(x) 2/10 2/10 3/10 2/10 2/10

a. µ = ∑ x . p(x)

= (0) 2/10 + (1) 2/10 + 2 (3/20) 3 (2/10) + 4 (2/10)

= 0 + 2/10 + 6 /10 + 6/10 + 8/10

= 22/10

= 2.2

b. Ó2 = ∑[�� . �� (��)] − µ²
= 02 (2/10) + 12 (2/10) + 22 (3/10) +32 (2/10) + 42 (2/10)
= 0 + 2/10 + 12/10 + 18/10 + 32/10
= 64/10 – (22/10)2
= 6.4 – (2.2)2
Example 2
For the given probability distribution below, find the variance and standard
deviation.
x 0 1 2 3

P(x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8

Solution:
µ = Σ x.p(x)
= 0 (1/8) + 1 (3/8) + 2 3/8 + (3/18)

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= 0 + 3/8 + 6/8 + 3/8

= 12/8
= 1.5

31
a. Variance

Ó² = [ x2.p(x)]-µ²

= 0 (1/8) + 12(3/8) + 22(3/8) + 32(1/8)] – (1.5)2

= 0 + 3/8 + 12/8 + 9/8 – (1.5)2

= 3 – (1.5)2
= 0.75

b. Standard deviation

Ó = J[Σx² . p(x)] - µ²

Ó = √0.75
= 0.87

References

Triola, M.F,1992 - Elementary Statistics 6th edition Addison-Wesley Publishing Company,

Inc.

Walpole, R.E, Myers, R.H., Myers, S.L, and K.ye,2002 -Probability and Statistics for Scientist
and Engineers, 7th ed. Pearson Education, Inc.

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32
Assessing Learning

Activity 1

Name: Date: Course/Year/Section:

Directions: Identify whether each variable as discrete or

continuous. 1. A person’s age

2. The number of red marbles in an urn

3. Weights of the professors in a college

4. Daily tonnage produced by a mining company.

5. The number of tails tossing a coin 5 times.

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Activity 2

Name: Date: Course/Year/Section:

Directions: Answer the following questions:

Consider an experiment wherein a coin is tossed ten (10) times.

1. How many elements are in the sample space?

2. Map each sequence to a real number if the random variable × represented in the

number of head in the sequencing of:

a. HTHTHTHTHT

b. HHTTHHTTHH

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c. TTTTTHHTTT

d. HHHHHHHHHH

e. HHTTTTTHTT

34
Activity 3

Name: Date: Course/Year/Section:

Directions: Answer the following questions.

1. Toss five (5) coins simultaneously and record the number of tails that will occur.

a. Tabulate the probability distribution for the number of tails.

b. Draw a histogram for the probability function.

2. Find the mean, and standard deviation of the random variable R representing the

number of male students per section in First Yea Civil Engineering.

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R 3 4 5 6 7

P(R) 38% 31% 14% 10% 7%

35
LESSON 2: Discrete Probability Distribution

Setting up

Name: Date: Course/Year/Section:

Directions: Encircle the correct answer.

1. Which of the following is/are TRUE about the binomial Probability

distribution? I. The experiment consists of repeated trials.

II. There are many possible outcomes.

III. The repeated trials are dependent.
IV. The probability of success is constant
a. I only
b. II and III
c. IV only
d. II and IV

2. Which of the following is/are FALSE about the Poisson Distribution.

I. The average of success is known over a time or space

II. The average of success is unknown over a time or space.

III. Past occurrences do not influence the likelihood of future occurrences.
IV. Simultaneous occurrences are nearly possible

a. I only
b. II and IV
c. I and III
d. IV only

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36
Lesson Proper

Binomial Distribution

A binomial trial can result in a success with probability p and a failure with
probability of binomial random variable X , in
�� �� ��−��
�� ( �� ∶ �� ∶ �� ) = ( ��) �� ��

Where:
�� = 0 , 1, 2 . . . ��

The Mean and Variance of the Binomial Distribution

Mean: �� = ����

Variance: ��2 = ������

Standard deviation: �� = √������

Example:
A shooter’s probability of hitting the bulls eye is 95%. In 8 trials, find the probability
of having.

a. Exactly 5 d. the average number of shots that hit the target.

b. 6 or more e. The Variance
c. At least 2 successes f. The Standard deviation

Solution:

Given:
p= 95%
= 0.95
q= 1-0.95
= 0.5

a. ��( �� = 5 ) = (85)(.95)5(. 5)3

= 0.005
b. �� (�� ≥ 6 ) = ��(�� = 6) + ��(�� = 7) + ��(�� = 8)
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8
= (86)(. 95)6(. 5)2 + (87) (. 95)7(. 5)1 + ( 8)(.95)8. 50

37
= .051 + 0.279 + .66
= 0.99
c. At least 2
�� ( �� > 2) = 1 − �� (�� = 0, 1, )
8 0 8 8 1 7
= 1 − [( 0) (.95) (.5) + ( 1) (.95) (. 5)
= 1 − [0.0039 + .0074]
= 1 − 0.0113
= ��. ��������
d. The average number of shots that hit the target

�� = ����

= 8 (. 95)

= 7.6

e. ��2 = ������
= 8(0.95)(0.05)
= 0.38

f. ��2 = √0.38
= 0.616

Poisson Distribution

This is useful in describing the number od events that will occur in a specific period
of time or a specific area or volume. This distribution is often referred to as the “ rare event”
distribution such as
1. The number of accidents in a given highway intersection per week.
2. The number of errors per page done by an encoder.
3. The parts per million of some substance found in air or water emission from a certain
manufacturing plant.

�� (��) =���� ����

��!;
�� = 0 , 1, 2 … . ��

38
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Where:
λ= the average value of x
e= 2.71828
The mean:
�� = �� = ����
Example:
The number of people arriving at a particular bank teller is approximately
distributed as a Poisson random variable. Suppose that on the average one person arrives to
be served by that teller per minute. What is the probability that in a given minute?
a. Exactly 3
b. At most 4 people will arrived to be served?

Solution:
λ=1

a. X = 3
b. At most 4 people will arrive to be served? �� (�� < 4 ) = ��(�� = 0) +

��(�� = 1) + ��(�� = 2)

��( �� = 3) =��−�� ���� ��! 2!+1

3

−1 3 4
=2.71828 (1) 3! 3!+1
= 0.061 4!]
+ ��(�� = 3)
= .368[1 + 1 + .5 + 0.17 + 0.0416] =
= ∑��−1[10 .368 (2.7116)
1
0!+1 = .997
2
1!+1

39
Assessing Learning
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Name: Date: Course/Year/Section:

Activity 1
Directions: Encircle the correct answer.

For numbers 1-3. If x is binomially distributed with 5 trials and the probability of success is
equal to 10%
1. The probability of failure is
a. 100%
b. 90%
c. 80%
d. infinite
2. The number of repeated trials “n”
a. 10
b. 9
c. 5
d. 0
3. The probability of getting exactly 4 success
a. 2%
b. 3%
c. 1%
d. 5%
4. The mean of a binomial distribution is
a. �� = ����
b. �� = ������
c. �� = 0
d. �� = √��

5. The standard deviation is

a. ��2 = ������
b. ��2 = √������
c. �� = √������
d. �� = √����

40
Name: Date: Course/Year/Section:

Activity 2
Directions: Solve the following question.
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The table below shows the average number of births per day is RJC Hospital.

DAY NUMBER OF BIRTHS

Monday 15

Tuesday 23

Wednesday 25

Thursday 30

Friday 13

Saturday 10

Sunday 14

Based on the data, find the probability that a randomly selected baby will be
a. born on Monday

b. born on a weekend

c. Born on either, Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday

41
Name: Date: Course/Year/Section:

Activity 3
Directions: Solve the following question.

1.A production line manufactures 6- gal paint cans. The probability of any one can being out
of tolerance is 0.03 if six cans are selected at random what is the probability

a. That they are all out of tolerance?

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b. Exactly two are being out of tolerance?

c. At least one is out of being tolerance?

2.A traffic control engineer reports that 78% of the vehicle passing through a checkpoint are
from within the state. What is the probability that

a. fewer that 4 of the next nine vehicle are from out of state.

b. Exactly 4 of the next nine vehicle are from out of the state.

42
LESSON 3: Normal Distribution

Setting up

Name: Date: Course/Year/Section:

Directions: Circle the letter of the correct answer.

1. Which of the following best describe a normal distribution.

a. The scores are skewed to the right.
b. The mean, median and mode are equal.
c. The scores are skewed to the left.
d. The scores are concentrated more at one end or the other end. 2.
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Which of the following is/are not true about normal distribution. a. the mean,
median and mode are equal.
b. the mean is zero and the standard deviation is one.
c. It is symmetrical about the mean value.
d. The standard deviation does not affect the height of the normal curve. 3.
The standard deviation of a standard normal distribution is.
a. 0
b. 1
c. 2
d. 3
4. The mean value of the standard normal distribution is
a. 0
b. 1
c. 2
d. 3
5. About how many percent of the distribution lies between 2 units standard deviation from
the mean?
a. 65%
b. 95%
c. 99.7%
d. cannot be determined.

43
Lesson Proper

Normal Distribution

In the field of statistics, usually in most cases, variables are normally distributed. A
child’s IQ, a person’s height or weight, an individual blood pressure, a family’s income, the
breaking strength of ropes, and life expectancy of electric bulbs are typical example. When
large samples are obtained the variables take appearances w/c are characteristically similar
when graph in a histogram they normally form a normal curve that is bell shaped, w/c is a
widely known as normal distribution.
The normal curve has a very important role in inferential statistics. It provides a
graphical representation of statistical values that are needed in describing the
characteristics of populations as well as in making decisions.

Properties of normal distribution

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a. The distribution curve is bell shaped.

b. The curve is median and mode symmetric about its centre.
c. The mean median and mode co inside at the centre.
d. The curve is asymptotic w/ respect to the horizontal axis.
e. The area under the normal curve is 1.
f. The probability P(b ≤ z ≤ a).
g. The width of the curve is determined by the standard deviation of distribution.

Areas under the normal curve:

-3 -2 -1 0 z 1 2 3
O
Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.09
0.0
0.2 Area under the normal curve
1.0
2.0
3.0

44
Example:
1. If the z – score is 1.26, the corresponding area under the normal curve is the value 1.2
on the first column and 0.06 on the first row intersect the inter section is 0.3962. the
value 0.3962 or 39.62%represent the area under the normal curve when z is equal to
1.26. this interrupted to mean that the probability that z lies between the mean and z
= 1.26 is 0.3962 or 39.62%
2. Z = 1.48
3. Z = - 1.48

Standard Normal Curve

A standard normal curve is a normal probability distribution that has a mean =0 and
a standard deviation =1
Example: Find the area under the normal curves
a. To the right of Z = 1.79
b. To the left of Z = 1.79
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c. To the left of Z = -1.3

d. Between Z = 0.55 and Z = 1.25
e. Between Z = -1.25 and Z = 2.21

How to find the Z- score when areas are given.

This time the areas under the normal curve are given and we are to determine the
corresponding Z- score

Example: Determine the Z- score

a. When the area from Z = 0 to the right is 0.4394

Z = 1.55

′�� �� = ��. ������

b. When the area to the right of Z is 0.066

0.5000 – 0.0668 = 14332 = area of score, then Z = 1.5

45
�� �� = ��. ��

c. When the area to the right of Z is 0.897.

0.8907 – 0.05000 = .3907 area of Z score to the left of Z = 0 ;

then Z = -1.23��. ��������
.5000
�� ��

d. Which are equidistant from Z = 0 covering an area of 0.6 or 60%

.3000 .30000 Z O Z

From the table

0.3000 area of z score
Between –z & z = ± 0.84
The Z- score

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When a random variable x is not in standard normal, we convert the x values into Z
score by using formula.

�� =��−µ
ÓZ- score for population data

�� =�� − ��̅
���� − ���������� ������ ������������ ��������
Where:
Z - standard score
µ - population mean
Ó - population standard deviation
S – sample standard deviation
x – sample mean
X – raw score/given measurement
Example:
1. The following are the final exam result of Paulo’s performance in his three subjects.
On what subject did he perform well?

46
Subject Grade X (mean) SD (standard deviation) English 1 84 81 4.5

Math 1 83 75 6

P.E 1 90 92 6.4

Solution:

�� =�� − ��
��
English1 : Z = 84−81
4.5= 0.67
83−75
Math1 : Z =
6= 1.33
90−92
P.E1 : Z =
6.4= −0.31

Interpretation:
The Z – scores indicate that Paulo performed best in math 1. He did not performed
well in P.E

2. Given the mean µ = 50 and the standard deviation �� = 4 of population of reading

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̅
scores. Find the Z – value that corresponding to a score�� = 58. a. between 48 and
55.

Solution:
Given:
µ = 50
Ó=4
̅
�� = 58
a. Z = 58−50
8
4= 4= 2
b. Z1 = 48−50
−2
4= 4= −0.5
c. Z2 =56−50
5
4= 4= 1.5

Probability Notations under the Normal Curve

➢ P (a < z <b) denotes the probability that the z – score is between a and b
➢ P (z>a) denotes the probability that the z – score is greater than a.
➢ P (z<a) denotes the probability that the z – score is less than a.
Example:
1. Find the probability of the ff.
a. P (z<1.0)

47
Solution:
a. P (z<1.0)

Steps:
1. Draw a normal curve
2. Locate the z – value
3. Draw the line through the z – value
4. Shade the required region. Consult the z – table and find the area that
corresponds to z = 1.0
5. Use probability notation to form an equation showing the appropriate operation
to get the required area
6. Make a statement indicating the required area

P (z<1.0) = 0.5000 + .3413

= 0.8413
Normal Curve
= 84.13% 0123

Locating Percentiles under the

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A percentile is a measure of relative standing of location it is a descriptive measure of

the relationship if measurement to the rest of the data.

For example in a test in statistics probability, you got a score of 82 and you want to
know how fared in comparison with your classmates. If your teacher tells you that you
scored at the 90th percentile; it means that 90% of the grades were lower than yours and
10% where higher.

Example:
What is the corresponding z-score of 95th percentile under the normal curve?
Solution:

Steps:
1. Express the given percentage as probability 95% = 0.9500
2. Split 0.9500 into 5000 and 0.4500
3. Refer to z – table (locate the area 0.4500)
4. Find the z – score that correspond to 0.4500 on the left most column and get the
z – value
5. Describe the shade region
a. 95% = 0.9500
b. 0.5000 and 0.4500

48
Z – value
�� = 4.545 × 10−3 + 1.64
0.4500
�� = 1.645
0.4506 = 1.65
a. The shade region is 95% of
0.4495 = 1.64 the distribution
By interpolation
1.65 0.04506
Z 0.4500
1.64 0.4495

1.65 − 1.64 =. 4500 − .4495

�� − 1.64
0.4506 − 0.4495
�� − 1.64

0.01 =5 × 10⁻4
1.1 × 10⁻3 = .4545
�� 1.64 = 0.4545(0.01)

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5%

Z
b. Find the upper 10% of the
normal curve
10%

1. 10% = 0.1000
2. .5000 – 0.1000 = 0.4000
3. Locate 0.4000 = 0.3997

And 0.3997 has corresponding

z – value = 1.28 The upper 10%
is above z = 1.28/P(z>1.28)
OZ

c. The result of a nationwide aptitude test in mathematics are normally

distributed w/ mean = 80 and S = 15 what is the percentile rank of a score of
84.
Analysis
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Since we are interested in the percentile rank of 84, this means finding the percentage of
score below 84. And we transform 84 to z – score.

49
Solution:
�� =× − ×

��=84 − 80
15 = 0.27

P (Z<0.27)

P (Z<0.27) = 0.5000 + 0.1064

= 0.6064

= 60.64% = 7 percentile rank of the score 84 in a test.

Applying the Normal Curve Concept in Problem Solving

Example:
1. For a certain type of I pad, the length of time between charging of the battery is normally
distributed with a mean of 24 hours and a standard deviation of 4 hours. Migelle owns one
of these iPad and wants to know the probability that the length of time will be
a. Less than 15 hours.
b. More than 26 hours.
c. Exactly 18 hours.
Solution:
Given:
X = 24 hrs
S=4
a. X < 16 hrs
�� = �� − ��

��=16 − 24
⁻8
4= 4= ⁻2 c. X = 18 hrs
Z<-2.0 �� = 18 − 24
⁻6
The P (z<-2.0) = 0.5000 - .4722 = 4= 4= ⁻1.5
0.0228
b. X > 26 hrs 20

�� =26 − 24
2
4= 4= 0.5
P (Z> 0.5) = 0.5000 – 0.1915 = 0.3085
0.5

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P (Z = ⁻1.5) = .4332
-1.5 0

50
2. Engr. Cruz decides to exempt from taking the final exam the upper 5% of the class.
Exam marks and roughly normally distributed w/x = 72 and s = 6, what mark must a
student make in order to be exempted?
Solution:
Given: X=ZS+x

X = 72 45%5%
S=6
Required: X The area =0.5000- 0.05
=0.4500
From Z = ��−̅�� ��

The area = 0.5000 – 0.05 from the table of normal curve the corresponding Z value = 1.65
X =1.64 (6) +72

= 81.84
=82 the mark of a student to make in order to be exempted to take the final exam
3. Two hundred college freshman have their grades in the normal distribution with a
mean of 2.2 and a standard deviation of 0.6. How many of these freshmen have their
grades between 2.0 and 2.5?
Solution:
Given:
̅
�� = 2.2
S = 06
2.0 < x < 2.5
2.1

Z1 = 2−2.2 P (⁻0.33 < z <

−
0.6= 33 0.5) = P (0< z<0.133) +P (0<z<0.5) =
Z22.5−2.2 0.1293 + 0.1915
0.6= 0.5
= 0.3208
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= 0.3208 (200)
The number of students having the
= 64.16 = 64 students
grades between 2.0 and 2.5 =
(probability) (total number of -.33 0.5

students)

51
Normal Approximation to the Binomial Distribution
If x is a binomial random variable with means μ=np and variance σ^2= npq, then the
limiting form of the distribution of

�� =�� − ����
√������

Example:
Let x be the number of times that a fair coin flipped 30 times, lands tails. Find the
probability that x = 20. Use the normal approximation and then compare it to the exact
solution.
Solution:
Let x – denotes the number of tails land
Then p = 1/2

Using the normal approximation

1
�� = ���� = 10( 2⁄ ) = 15

1 ⁄ ) (1 ⁄ ) = 7.5
��2 = ������ = 30 ( 2 2

P= ( x=20 ) = P( 19.5 < x < 20.5 ) the desired probability

Then the two Z – values are

Z1 = 19.5−15
√7.5= 1.64

Z2 = 19.5−15
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√7.5=2.0 1 10
)20( 2⁄ ) = 0.0279

1.64

P ( Z < 1.64) = .5 + .4495 = .9495

P ( 19.5 < x < 20.5 ) = P (

= P ( Z < 2.0) – P ( Z <1.64 )

= .9772 – 0.9495

= 0.0277

1.64
2.0
The exact result is P ( Z < 2.0) = .5 + .4772 = .9772

1 30 1
b ( 20:30: ⁄ ) = ( 20) �� ( 2⁄

52
Assessing Learning

Name: Date: Course/Year/Section:

Activity 1
Direction: Solve the following problems.
1. Find the are under the standard normal distribution curve a.
To the right of -0.44

b. To the left of 0.78

c. Between -0.62 and -1.63

2. Find the z – value that correspond to the given area. a.

With area 0.9357 to its left.

b. With area 0.8962 to its right.

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3. Find the probabilities for each using the standard normal distribution. a. P
(z < - 1.8)

b. P (z > - 0.92)
c. P (-2.3 < z < 0.79

53
Assessing Learning

Name: Date: Course/Year/Section:

Activity 2
Direction: Solve the following problems.
1. The average time a person spends in a zoo is 62 min. The standard deviation is 12
minutes. If a visitor is selected at random. Find the probability that a person spends
a. At least 80 minutes.
b. More than 90 minutes.

2. Five hundred children participated in a field demonstration of 6cm. a. What is the

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probability that the height of a child, picked at random, is less than 104 cm? b. How many
children belongs to the upper 15% of the group?

54
Assessing Learning

Name: Date: Course/Year/Section:

Activity 3
1. An Engineering student commutes daily from home to his midtown office. The
average time for an office trip is 26 minutes, with a standard deviation of 3.6 minutes.
Assuming that the distribution of trip times to be normally distributed.

a. What is the probability that a trip will take at least ½ hour?

b. If the office opens at 8:30 AM and leaves his house 8:10 AM daily, what percentage of
time is he late for work?

c. Find the length of time above which we find the slowest 15% of the trips?

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55
2. The probability that a patient recovers from a delicate heart operation is 0.85 of the next
110 patients having this operation. What is the probability that?

a. Between 84 and 95 inclusive survive?

b. Fewer than 88 survive?

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56
UNIT IV. Sampling Distribution

Overview

Module IV is about Sampling Distribution, Standard error of the mean, Sampling

error, Mean and Standard deviation of the sample mean, Central limit Theorem, Estimation
and so on.

Learning Objectives

At the end of the unit, I am able to:

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1. Discuss the concepts relative to sampling distribution of the sample means

estimation and point estimation;
2. Find the probability of the sample mean;
3. Use Central Limit Theorem in solving the Sampling Distribution of the sample; and
4. Determine the value of level of confidence and level of significance.

Topics

4.1 Sampling Distribution of Sample mean

4.2 Standard error of the mean

4.3 Sampling error

4.4 Mean and standard deviation of the sample mean

4.5 Central limit theorem

4.6 Estimation and Point Estimate

4.7 Margin of error and level of confidence

4.8 Population Estimate for the population proportion P.

57
Setting up

Name: Date: Course/Year/Section:

Directions: Solve the following problems.

1. Lorry wants to know, with 95% confidence, the proportion of households who like to
use detergent x. a previous survey showed that 42% like to use detergent x. lorry
likes to be accurate within 2% of the true proportion. What sample size does lorry
need?

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2. Joshua want to replicate a study where the lowest observed value is 12.4 while the
highest is 12.8 He wants to estimate the population mean to within an error of 0.025 of
its true value. Using 99% confidence level, find the sample size that he needs.

58
Lesson Proper

Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean

The set of all possible values of the sample mean along with the probabilities of
occurrence of the possible values is called sampling distribution of the sampling mean.
Example:
Given:
City X
A 42
B 39
C 36

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D 33
E 30

Consider samples of size 3 from this population

a. Compute the population mean µ.
b. List all possible samples and their corresponding mean.
c. Construct the sampling distribution of the sample mean
Solution:
X 30 33 36 39 42

P(x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

a. µ = Σ x p x
= 30(.2) + 33(.2) + 36(.2) + 39(.2) + 42(.2)
= 36
b. The numbers of samples of size 3 from this population is equal the
number of combinations possible when selecting 3 cities from five.

5��3 =5!
(5 − 3)! 3!

=5!
2! 3!

=5! 4
2.1
= 10

59
Samples X sample mean (̅�� )

A, B, C 42, 39, 36 39
A, B, D 42, 39, 33 38
A, B, E 42, 39, 30 37
A, C, D 42, 36, 33 37
A, C, E 42, 36, 30 36
A, D, E 42, 33, 30 35
B, C, D 39, 36, 33 36
B, C, E 39, 36, 30 35
C, D, E 36, 33, 30 33
B, D, E 39, 33, 3034
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c. For sampling, each of the samples equally likely to be selected. The probability of selecting
a sample w/ mean 39 is 0.1 since only one of 10 samples has a mean of 39.
��̅ 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

P(��̅ 1/10 1/10 2/10 2/10 2/10 1/10 1/1

) 0

or
.1 .1 .2 .2 .2 .1 .1

The sampling distribution of the mean is shown

��̅ 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

P(� .1 .1 .2 .2 .2 .1 .1
�̅)

Compute:
a. Mean of the sample mean
b. Standard error of the mean.

Solution:
a. µ ��̅= Σ ��̅. P (��̅)
= 33(.1) + 4(.1) +3 5(.2) + 36(.2) + 37(.2) + 38(..1) + 39(.1)
=36

b. Ó2��= �� ��̅² P(x) − µ2��

= [(33)2(. 1) + (34)2. 1) + (35)2. 2) + (36)2. 2) + (37)2(. 2)
+ 38(. 1) + 39(.1)]

60
The Standard Error of the mean

Ó ��̅= √3
= 1.73
The relationship between the mean of the sample mean and population mean is expressed
by µ��̅ = µ

The relationship between the variance of the sample mean and the population variance is
expressed by

Ó²��̅ =Ó²��×��−��
��−��

The standard error of the mean is

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Ó��̅ =Ó√��× √��−��

��−��

Sampling Error

When the sample mean is used to estimate the population mean an error is usually
made. This error is called the absolute difference between the sample mean and the
population mean.

|��̅− µ |
Example: in example 1, give the sampling errors and probabilities associated with all the
different sample means.
��̅ Sampling error Probability
33 3 .1
34 2 .1
35 1 .2
36 0 .2
37 1 .2
38 2 .1
39 3 .1
It is seen that the probability of no sampling error in this scenario is 0.20. There is a
60% chance that the sampling error is 1 or less.

61
Mean and Standard Deviation of the Sample Mean

Science the sample mean has a distribution, it is a random variable and has a mean
and standard deviation. µ��̅ is the mean of sample mean and the standard deviation of the
sample mean is referred to as the standard error of the mean.

The term √��−��

��−��is called the finite population connection factor. If the sample size
n is less than 5%of the population size; ��.e n 0.5N, the finite population correction factor
is very near one and is omitted in the formula.
If n < 0.05 N, the standard error of the mean is.

Ó��̅ =Ó√��

Shape of the sampling distribution of the sample and the central limit theorem

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If samples are selected from a population w/c is normally distributed with mean µ
and standard deviation Ó, then the distribution of sample means is normally distributed and
the mean of the distribution is µ��̅ = µ, and the standard duration of this distribution is
Ó��̅= Ó
√��the shape of

The distribution of the sample means is normal or bell shaped regardless of the
simple size

The Central Limit Theorem

States that when sampling from a large population of any distribution shape, the
sample means have a normal distribution whenever the sample size is 30 or more. The mean
of the distribution of sample mean is µx̅ = µ and the standard deviation of this distribution is
Ó��̅= Ó√��

Z=��̅−µ
Ó
√��

62
Example:
1. The average time it takes a group of college students to complete a certain examination is
50 minutes. The standard deviation is 9 minutes. Assume that the variable is normally
distributed. If 50 randomly selected college take the examination. What is the probability
that the mean time it takes the group to complete the test will be less than 44 minutes?
Solution:
µ = 50
Ó=9
x̅ = 44
n = 50
x < 44 min
�� (2 < −1.57 ) = 0.5000 − .4418
-1.57

Z=
��̅−µ
Ó =44−50 9 =−6√50 = 0.0582
√50 = 5.82%
9=1.57
√��

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Estimation

Is the process of estimating the value of a parameter from information obtained in

sample An important aspect of estimation in the size of the sample Confidence intervals for
the mean when Ó is known or n ≥ 30
Point Estimate
Is a single value point used to approximate of population parameter?
The sample mean x is the best point estimate of the population mean
µ. Interval Estimate or Confidence Interval

Is a large (or an interval) of values that is likely to contain the true value of the
population parameter. A degree of confidence can be assigned before an interval estimate is
made. The confidence level is the probability that the interval estimate will contain the
parameter.

63
Margin of error E

When sample data are used to estimate a population mean µ, the margin of error E, is
the maximum likely (w/probability 1-8) difference between the observed sample mean x
and the true value of the population mean µ
Ó
�� = ��∝/2. √��

Confidence Interval (or Interval Estimate) for the Population Mean µ

��̅ − �� ∝
⃑ ⃑
⁄���� �� – �� < µ < �� + ��
�� ∝
�� ( √��) ≤ ����̅ + �� √��
⁄

For a 90 % confidence interval z ∝/2= ±1.65

For a 95% of confidence interval z ∝/2= ±1.96
A 99% confidence interval, z ∝/2= ±2.98
The choice of 95% is most common because it provides a good balance between
precision (as respected in the width of the confidence interval) and reliability, (as expressed
by the degree of confidence)
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The mean m can be computed as

��
�� = ��̅− 2 ( √��)
Example:
A sample of a various prices for an Ipad has been conducted in the 30 stores which
were selected at random in nearby city. Assuming that the price of the product follows a
normal distribution of variance of 25 and a mean of 100. Determine the confidence interval
of 90% for the population mean.
Given:
N = 30

��̅= 100
��2 = 25
The Confidence Coefficient
1− ∝ = 0.95
∝ = .10
∝
2⁄ = 0.5
∝
�� 2⁄ = 1.65

64
Computing for the confidence interval
∝ ��
�� = ��̅± �� 2⁄ [ √��]
5
= 100 ± 1.65[
√����] We are 90% confident that the true population
mean of all the prices is found between 98.49
= ≤ �� ≤
and 101.51.
= 98.46 ≤ �� ≤ 101.51

The confidence coefficient is 1- ∝ , the figure below; illustrate the idea.

∝ ��
��̅± �� 2⁄ ( √��)

∝ �� ∝ ��
��̅± �� 2⁄ ( √��) ��̅��̅+ �� 2⁄ ( √��)
Example:

A random sample of 40 students entering statistics major has the following GPAs.

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4.0 3.5 3.0 3.3 3.8 3.1 3.6 4.0 3.9 3.5

3.2 3.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.2 4.0 3.0 3.4 3.0

3.0 2.8 3.6 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.2 2.8 3.3 3.1

3.2 2.9 3.0 2.8 4.0 3.7 3.0 3.3 3.2 2.8

a. Find the point estimate and

b. The 95% confidence interval for µ.

Solution:

a. The point estimate for the population mean

��̅ = 4.0+3.2+3.0+3.2+3.5+3.0+...+2.8
40

65
b. 95% confidence interval

With ��̅ = 3.29 and E = 0.11

��̅ –E < µ <��̅+ E

3.29-0.11 < µ < 3.29 + 0.11

3.18 µ < 3.40

We can say with 95% confidence that the interval between 3.18 and 3.40 contains the true
mean GPA of population based on the sample GPA of 40 students entering math major

Confidence interval for the mean when Ó is unknown and n <30

��̅+ E < µ <��̅ – E

Where E

E (margin of error for the estimate of µ)

��
�� = ����/2 √��
Therefore
< ��̅ +
��̅ − ���� 2 �� ��√�
∝/2
��
. √�� < µ �
S = standard deviation

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N = no. of samples.

��̅ = ������������ ��������

Example:

Given: the following

98.6 98.6 98 98 99 98.4 98.4 98.4 98.4 98.6 For these scores
n = 10; ��̅ = 98.44 and S = 0.3

Construct a 99% confidence interval for these data.

66
Solution:

Degrees of freedom = n – 1

= 10 – 1

=9

��∝/2 =3.250 ��/�� ���� ���������� ���� �� − ����������

��
�� = ��∝/2 √��= 3.2500.3
√��= 3.08
The confidence interval is
��̅ − �� < µ < ��̅ + ��

98.44 - 3.08 < µ < 98.44 + 3.08

95.36 < µ < 101.52

Based on the 10 sample, we are 99% confident that the limits of 95.36 and 101.52 co
contain the true mean score.

Estimating for the population proportion

Point estimate for the population proportion p.

��
�� = ��

Where

P - sample proportion.

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n - number of observation.

X - particular value.

Margin of error of the estimate p

�� = ��∝/��√������ ; q= 1-p

67
Confidence interval for a population proportion p

�� − ��∝/��√������< p < p +��∝/��√������

Determining sample size

a. When an estimate p is known

�� =(��∝/��)² �� ��
����
b. When no estimate p known

�� =(��∝/2)²Ó²
��
��²; Ó = 4; �� ���� ��ℎ�� ����������

Example:

2. When 500 college students are randomly selected and surveyed, it is found that 135
of them own personal computers.

a. Find the point estimate of the true proportion of all college students who own
personal computers.
b. Find as 95% confidence interval for the true proportion of all college students
who own personal computers.

Solution:

a.��=����=135
500= 0.270

�� = 1 − 0.270 = 0,730

b. 95% confidence interval

∝= ��. ���� ������ ��∝/�� = ��. ����

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����
�� = √ ����∝/��

�� = ��. ����√(��. ������)(��. ������

������

= 0.039

68
Therefore

P–E<P<P+E

0.270 - 0.039 < P < 0.270 + 0.039

0.231 < P < 0.309

Or

231.1% < P 30.9%

Thus w/95% confidence, we can state that the interval from 23.1% to 30.9% contains the
true percentage off all student who own personal computer.

References

Triola, M.F,1992 - Elementary Statistics 6th edition Addison-Wesley Publishing Company,

Inc.

Walpole, R.E, Myers, R.H., Myers, S.L, and K.ye,2002 -Probability and Statistics for Scientist
and Engineers, 7th ed. Pearson Education, Inc.

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69
Assessing Learning

Activity 1

Name: ________________________________________ Score: ______________

Course/Year/Section: _______________________ Date: _______________ 1. Find the
interval estimates of the population mean.

a. n = 10 ��̅ = 28, S = 4, 90% confidence

b. n = 120 ��̅ =72, Ó = 3, 95% confidence

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2. The dean of ABC University wishes to estimate the average age of students presently
enrolled. From past studies, the standard deviation is known to be 2 years. A sample
Students is selected and the mean is found to be 19.2 years. Find the 99%
confidence.

70
3. An instructor wants to estimate the difference in grade point average between two
groups of college students accurate to w/in 0.2 grade point, w/ probability equal to
0.95 If the standard deviation of the grade point measurement is equal to 0.6 how
many students must he include in each group? 95% confidence.

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4. It has been reported that the average daily intake of calories for young woman is
1667. To see if this is true for nurses, a researcher sampled 15 nurses and found
their average daily intake of calories was 1593, w/standard deviation of 36 calories.
Find the 90% confidence interval of mean.

71
UNIT V. TESTING OF HYPOTHESIS
Overview
Module V deals with testing hypothesis for parametric test; the z-test and t-test. Z test is for
two sample for mean test, t-test for independent samples and for correlated Samples. It is
used to test non significance of difference between a single pair of samples.

Learning Objectives

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At the end of the unit, I am able to:

12. Develop null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis;

13. Discuss the procedures in hypothesis testing;
14. Determine the critical region and the appropriate statistical tool to use in solving
the problems; and
15. Make statistical inferences using the testing hypothesis process.

Topics

5.1 Z-test
5.1.1 Z-test for a two sample mean test
5.2 T-test
5.2.1 T-test for independent samples
5.2.2 T-test for correlated samples

72
Setting up

Name: Date: Course/Year/Section:

Directions: Circle the letter of the correct answer.

1. What is the main purpose of developing the null hypothesis?

a. To reject the null hypothesis
b. To accept the null hypothesis
c. Neither to reject nor to accept the null hypothesis
d. Cannot determined.

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2. Which type of errors is/are committed by the researcher if he rejected a null

hypothesis that is true?
I. Type I error
II. Type II error
a. I only
b. II only
c. Both I and II
d. Neither I nor II

3. The other term to type 1 error is

a. Alpha error
b. Beta error
c. Gamma error
d. Delta error

4. Which of the following test statistic/s will be utilized when ��0 is non directional?
a. One tailed test
b. Two tailed test
c. Both a and b
d. Neither a nor b

5. It is also known as the hypothesis of no difference.

a. Alternative hypothesis
b. Null hypothesis
c. Research hypothesis
d. Non directional

73
Lesson Proper

TESTING OF HYPOTHESIS

Hypothesis is simply a statement that something is true. It is tentative explanation, a

claim, or assertion about people, objects or events.
1. There is no significant difference between the mathematics attitude and
competency levels of second year accountancy students.
2. The percentage of shoppers who buy their favorite toothpaste regardless of
price is not 25%.
3. The mean monthly allowance of all students of the University of the East is at
least P5,000.00.
4. 95% of the government employees file their income tax return on time. Such
statement is subjected to statistical testing in order to determine whether it
is true or false. If the statement is true, then it is accepted. On the contrary, if
the statement is false, it is rejected.
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Hypothesis testing is a procedure in making a decision based on the sample evidence

use to determine whether the hypothesis is accepted or rejected.

Two types of hypothesis:

1. Null Hypothesis is denoted by ����. The capital �� stands for hypothesis

and the subscript zero implies “no difference” or known as no difference
relationship hypothesis. It implies neutrally and objectively which must be
present in any research undertaking.

2. Alternative Hypothesis is the opposite of null hypothesis. It specifies in

existence of a difference. The alternative hypothesis will be accepted if the
sample data provided us with evidence that the null hypothesis is false. In
short, the rejection of null hypothesis implies that the alternative hypothesis
is asserted.

Rejection of Hypothesis – is to conclude that the hypothesis is false.

Acceptance of Hypothesis – merely implies that there is no sufficient statistical evidence to

believe otherwise.

Critical Values – the values of the test statistical evidence that separate the rejection regions.

74
One Tailed / Two Tailed Tests

A one tailed test is a hypothesis test for which the rejection lies at only one tail of the
distribution. It is classified as left or right tailed test. If the population mean is less than the
specified value of ����, then it is a left tailed test for which the alternative hypothesis can
be expressed as �� < ����. It is right tailed test if the population mean (��) is greater
than specified value of ���� for which the alternative hypothesis can be expressed as >
����

A two tailed test is used when the alternative hypothesis is non-directional which
means that the values of two measures of the same kind are not equal. The rejection regions
lie on both end tails of the distribution.

Level of Significance

The level that corresponds to the area in the critical region. For hypothesis testing, it
is customary to use an �� error of 5% or 1% as the case may be. It also implies that we are
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willing to commit an �� error of 5% or 1% as the case may be. It also implies that we are
95% or 99% confident in making decisions.

Type I and Type II Errors

Decision ���� is true. ���� is false.

Reject ���� Type I (��) error Correct Decision
Accept ���� Correct Decision Type II (��) error

Type I error – is when we reject the null hypothesis when it is true.

Type II error – is when we accept or fail to reject the null hypothesis when the alternative
hypothesis is true.

Critical values of z at varying significance levels

Test Type Significance Levels

0.10 0.05 0.025 0.01

One tailed test ±1.28 ±1.645 ±1.96 ±2.33

±1.645 ±1.96 ±2.33 ±2.58
Two tailed test

Note: Reject the null hypothesis when the computed value of z lies within the area of rejection.

75

One tailed test (right tailed).

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One tailed test (left tailed).

Two tailed test

76
Steps in Hypothesis Testing

1. Formulate the null hypothesis (in words or in symbols)

���� ∶ �� = ����
2. Choose an appropriate alternative hypothesis ����.
����: �� < ����(������ ������������ �������� − ��������)
�� > ���� (������ ������������ �������� − ������ℎ��)
�� ≠ ���� (������ ������������ ��������)
3. Specify the level of significance to be used.
4. Select an appropriate test statistic and determine the critical value of the test
statistic.
5. Compute the value of the test statistic using the sample data.

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6. Make a decision or conclusion.

Test of hypothesis concerning one population mean

−���� Reject ���� if √��
���� > ���� Reject
���� Decision rule

if |����| < ������

Test statistic to use Reject ���� if ���� <

−����(��−��) Reject
���� if ���� >
����(��−��) Reject
Alternative
���� if
Hypothesis

����:�� < ����

�� > ����
�� ≠ ����
Case 1
Large sample test n is
larger or�� is known z
test
��
Case 2
Small sample test n is
small or �� is
unknown

�� =�� − �� t test
�� <
|����|
√��
����
��(��−��)

Decision Rule

�� =�� − ��
Reject ���� if ���� < ��

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Examples:

A. The treasurer of a certain university claims that the mean salary of their college professors
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is P21, 750.00 with a standard deviation of P6,000.00. A researcher takes a random

sample of 75 college professor were found to have a mean salary of P19,315.00. Do the
college professors have lower salaries than the rest? Test the claim at �� = 0.05 level of
significance.

Solution:

1. ���� ∶ �� = 21,750
���� ∶ �� < 21,750

2. Test Statistic

�� = 0.05

�� = 75

�� = 19,375

�� = 6,000

�� =�� − ��
��
√��

���� = −��. ������

3. Decision rule : Reject ���� if ���� < −����

4. Computation

���� =�� − ��
��
√��

=19,375 − 21,750
6,000
√75
���� = −��. ����
5. Decision:

Reject ���� : since ���� < −���� and conclude that 75 professors have lower
salaries than the rest.

78

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