Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Evaluation of temperature trends over India /

Evaluation de tendances de température en Inde

Manohar Arora, N. K. Goel & Pratap Singh

To cite this article: Manohar Arora, N. K. Goel & Pratap Singh (2005) Evaluation of temperature
trends over India / Evaluation de tendances de température en Inde, Hydrological Sciences
Journal, 50:1, -93, DOI: 10.1623/hysj.50.1.81.56330

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 Hydrological Sciences–Journal–des Sciences Hydrologiques, 50(1) February 2005 81

Evaluation of temperature trends over India

MANOHAR ARORA1, N. K. GOEL2 & PRATAP SINGH1

1 National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee 247667 (UA), India
[email protected]
2 Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee 247667 (UA), India

Abstract The impact of climate change is projected to have different effects within
and between countries. Information about such change is required at global, regional
and basin scales for a variety of purposes. An investigation was carried out to identify
trends in temperature time series of 125 stations distributed over the whole of India.
The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to detect monotonic trends in
annual average and seasonal temperatures. Three variables related to temperature, viz.
mean, mean maximum and mean minimum, were considered for analysis on both an
annual and a seasonal basis. Each year was divided into four principal seasons, viz.
winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon. The percentages of significant
trends obtained for each parameter in the different seasons are presented. Temperature
anomalies are plotted, and it is observed that annual mean temperature, mean
maximum temperature and mean minimum temperature have increased at the rate of
0.42, 0.92 and 0.09°C (100 year)-1, respectively. On a regional basis, stations of
southern and western India show a rising trend of 1.06 and 0.36°C (100 year)-1,
respectively, while stations of the north Indian plains show a falling trend of –0.38°C
(100 year)-1. The seasonal mean temperature has increased by 0.94°C (100 year)-1 for
the post-monsoon season and by 1.1°C (100 year)-1 for the winter season.
Key words annual trend; India; Mann-Kendall test; percentage of significant trend; seasonal
trend; temperature anomalies
Evaluation de tendances de température en Inde
Résumé L’impact du changement climatique devrait avoir des effets variables dans et
entre les pays. Une information au sujet de ce changement est nécessaire aux échelles
globale, régionale et de bassin, par rapport à une multiplicité d’enjeux. Nous avons
cherché à identifier les tendances dans les séries de température de 125 stations
réparties en Inde, dans son ensemble. Le test non-paramétrique de Mann-Kendall a été
appliqué pour détecter les tendances monotones dans les séries de températures
moyennes annuelles et saisonnières. Trois variables associées à la température, c’est-
à-dire la moyenne, le maximum moyen et le minimum moyen, ont été considérées et
analysées en annuel et en saisonnier. Chaque année a été divisée en quatre saisons
principales: l’hiver, la pré-mousson, la mousson et la post-mousson. Les pourcentages
de significativité de tendance obtenus pour chaque grandeur et chaque saison sont
présentés. Les anomalies sont identifiées, et il apparaît que la température moyenne
annuelle, la température maximale moyenne et la température minimale moyenne ont
augmenté respectivement de 0.42, 0.92 et 0.09°C (100 ans)-1. Du point de vue
régional, les stations du sud et de l’ouest de l’Inde montrent des tendances croissantes
à hauteur de 1.06 et 0.36°C (100 ans)-1, respectivement, tandis que les stations des
plaines du nord de l’Inde présentent une tendance décroissante de –0.38°C (100 ans)-1.
La température moyenne saisonnière a augmenté de 0.94°C (100 ans)-1 pour la saison
de post-mousson et de 1.1°C (100 ans)-1 pour l’hiver.
Mots clefs tendance annuelle; Inde; test de Mann-Kendall; pourcentage de significativité de
tendance; tendance saisonnière; anomalies de température

INTRODUCTION

Human activities have increased the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases

changing the Earth’s climate on both global and regional scales. There is evidence that
the recent climate is the result of both natural and anthropogenic forcing. In recent years
the potential impacts of climatic change and variability have received a lot of attention

Open for discussion until 1 August 2005 Copyright  2005 IAHS Press
82 Manohar Arora et al.

from researchers. A comprehensive review of the potential impacts of climatic change is

provided in IPCC (1998, 2001). According to IPCC (2001), increases in greenhouse gas
concentrations increased the annual mean global temperature by 0.6 ± 0.2°C since the
late 19th century. Available records show that the 1990s have been the warmest decade
of the millennium in the Northern Hemisphere and 1998 was the warmest year. Some of
the largest changes have occurred in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere land areas,
where winter temperatures increased at rates greater than 0.8°C decade-1 across large
parts of high-latitude North America, Europe and Asia since 1976 (IPCC, 2001). It is
also reported that the concentration of greenhouse gases was the maximum in the history
of the 19th century (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). Estimates based on global circulation
models, following increase in greenhouse gases at the current rate, suggest that the
global mean surface temperature is expected to increase between 1.4 and 5.8°C by 2100
with respect to 1990 (IPCC, 2001). However, while globally averaged precipitation is
projected to increase, both increases and decreases are expected at the regional scale.
Other indications of the changing climate include retreating glaciers, rising sea level,
reduction in sea-ice thickness and in snow cover. Studies related to snow and glaciers
indicate that, under the warmer climate, glaciers are projected to continue their
widespread retreat during the 21st century. The global mean sea level is likely to
increase by 0.09–0.88 m between 1990 and 2100.
Temperature drives the hydrological cycle, influencing hydrological processes in a
direct or indirect way. A warmer climate leads to intensification of the hydrological
cycle, resulting in higher rates of evaporation and increase of liquid precipitation. These
processes, in association with a shifting pattern of precipitation, will affect the spatial
and temporal distribution of runoff, soil moisture, groundwater reserves and increase the
frequency of droughts and floods. The future climatic change, though, will have its
impact globally and will be felt severely in developing countries with agrarian
economies, such as India. Surging population and associated demands for freshwater,
food and energy would be areas of concern in the changing climate. Changes in extreme
climatic events are of great consequence owing to the high vulnerability of the region to
these changes. Parry et al. (2001) have shown that there is a steep rise in the water
shortage curve when plotted against rise in temperature. They reported that this is due to
large urban populations in China and India being newly exposed to risk.

REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE IN AN INDIAN CONTEXT

The surface temperatures over the region show a variety of trends in seasonal and annual
patterns, and are greatly modified by altitude, location in relation to the sea coast and
other such geographical features. In India some studies have been carried out to
determine the changes in temperature and their association with climate change. Secular
trends in the annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures over India were studied
by Pramanik & Jagannathan (1954). They concluded that there is no general tendency
for an increase or decrease in these temperatures. Jagannathan & Parathasarathy (1973)
analysed the time series of mean annual temperatures over a set of eight Indian stations.
They reported an increasing trend in the mean annual temperatures of Kolkata, Mumbai,
Bangalore and Allahabad, and a decreasing trend at Cochin. Sarker & Thapliyal (1988)
reviewed climate change over the previous 80 years and indicated a slight warming trend

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 Evaluation of temperature trends over India 83

in dry-bulb temperature; while rainfall showed no trend. The study by Srivastava et al.
(1992) on decadal trends in climate over India gave the first indications that the diurnal
asymmetry of temperature trends over India is quite different from that observed over
many other parts of the globe. They found that maximum temperatures show much
larger increasing trends than the minimum temperatures, over a major part of the
country. A decreasing trend in temperature over most of the northern parts of the country
(north of 23°N), coupled with an increasing trend over southern parts (south of 23°N),
and an overall slightly increasing trend of the order of 0.35°C was observed during the
last 100 years. Rupa Kumar et al. (1994) have shown that the countrywide mean
maximum temperature has risen by 0.6°C, and the mean minimum temperature has
decreased by 0.1°C. However, as the result from mean minimum temperatures is not
statistically significant, they concluded that most of the increases in mean surface air
temperature over India are due to the increase in daytime temperature. Pant & Kumar
(1997) analysed the data for 1881–1997 and showed that there is a significant warming
trend of 0.57°C per hundred years. The magnitude of warming is higher in the post-
monsoon and winter seasons. The monsoon temperature does not show a significant
trend in any major part of the country except for a significant negative trend over
northwest India. No significant trends were obtained in the rainfall on either an annual or
a seasonal basis. Sinha Ray & De (2003) have summarized existing information on
climate change and on trends in the occurrence of extreme events over India. It is
reported that rainfall and surface pressure averaged over the country as a whole show no
significant trend. An increasing trend of the order of 0.35°C over the last 100 years has
been observed in temperature records. Extreme maximum and minimum temperatures
show an increasing trend in the south and a decreasing trend in the north.
Future warming scenarios have been generated for the Indian sub-continent using
general circulation models (GCMs). The output from equilibrium GCM experiments
shows that the temperature rise in northern India would be higher than that in southern
India. The output from different GCM scenarios varies substantially, and the average
change across India is predicted to be in the range of 2.3–4.8°C. On the other hand,
taking the possible cooling effect of sulphate aerosols into account, Lal et al. (1995)
suggested that the increase in the annual mean maximum and minimum surface air tem-
peratures would be of the order of 0.7–1.0°C in the 2040s, in comparison to the 1980s.
Water resources play a vital role in the Indian economy. The water and agricultural
sectors are likely to be worst affected by warmer climate. The major rivers of India,
namely, the Indus, the Ganga and the Brahmaputra, originate from the Himalayas and
receive a substantial amount of meltwater from snow and glaciers. Water yield for the
Himalayan snow-fed rivers is roughly twice that of the peninsular rivers of south India.
Singh et al. (1994, 1997) and Singh & Jain (2002) carried out some studies to estimate
the contribution of snow and glaciers in the annual flows of a few Himalayan rivers. The
results of these studies show that, on average, the Ganga at Deoprayag receives about
30% of its annual discharge from snow and glacier melt, the Chenab receives 49% and
the Satluj receives 60%. Many studies have reported the recession of Himalayan glaciers
(e.g. Gergan, 2002; Dobhal et al., 2004). Increased temperatures are expected to reduce
average flow of snow-fed rivers, coupled with an increase in peak flows and sediment
yield. This would have major impacts on hydropower generation and urban water
supply. Agricultural productivity is likely to suffer severely due to higher temperatures.
Under warmer climate, the arid and semiarid regions could experience severe water

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84 Manohar Arora et al.

stress due to the decline in soil moisture. The amount of water evaporated from the land
surface is an important criterion for the sustenance and development of vegetative life.
The peninsular region of India includes large coastal areas. Under a warmer climate, the
rise in sea level would cause submergence of vast areas of coastline. Aquaculture pro-
ductivity is also likely to undergo changes as a result of temperature rise. The spatial
distribution and magnitude of temperature trends in the region would help in obtaining
climate change scenarios for such studies.
With the growing concern about climate change impacts, researchers have employed
the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test (Mann, 1945; Kendall, 1975) to identify whether
monotonic trends exist in hydrometeorological data such as temperature, precipitation
and streamflow (Taylor & Loftis, 1989; McLeod et al., 1991; Yu et al., 1993; Burn,
1994; Douglas et al., 2000; Yue et al., 2003; Burn et al., 2004 and others). Kundzewicz
& Robson (2004) have outlined and presented a brief overview of some of the tests.
Application of trend tests may sometimes produce misleading results in the presence of
serial correlation in the series. Burn et al. (2004) investigated trends in the streamflow
series of the Liard River in northern Canada. Trends were investigated using the Mann-
Kendall test, with a serial correlation approach. Kothyari & Singh (1996) carried out an
investigation to identify rainfall and temperature trends in the Ganga basin in India and
also in India as a whole. Their results showed that rainfall has a decreasing trend and
temperature has an increasing trend. Mirza et al. (1998) analysed trends and persistence
in precipitation in Ganga, Brahmaputra and Meghna river basins. Sharma et al. (2000)
studied land-use, climatic and hydrological trends over the Kosi basin (54 000 km2) in
the central Himalayan region. The analysis of meteorological and hydrological time series
from 1947 to 1993 showed some increasing tendency of temperature and precipitation.
The significant increase in the mean annual global surface air temperature during the
past century is probably the most widely quoted aspect of climatic change. Identification
of this warming and its comparison with that projected by the various GCMs, has
prompted a large number of studies of temperature trends. Most of the temperature
studies on India are confined to the analysis of annual and seasonal series of temperature
for some individual stations or groups of stations. In such studies on the identification of
trends over a region, the monthly mean temperature series of each station are usually
converted into temperature anomaly series (i.e. deviations from the mean). These
anomalies are then used to obtain the seasonal and spatial averages for long-term
temperature change. In the present study, a nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK)
statistical test was applied to annual average temperature, annual average maximum
temperature, annual average minimum temperature and average seasonal temperatures of
125 stations distributed throughout India. Annual and seasonal temperature anomalies
were analysed on a country scale as well as a regional scale.

STUDY AREA AND DATA USED

Covering an area of 3.29 × 106 km2, India is the world’s largest peninsula, situated in
south Asia. The Indian subcontinent is an excellent example of a monsoon-type climatic
region. In a year, there are two types of monsoon current. and four principal seasons:
winter (December–February); pre-monsoon (March–May); monsoon (June–August);
and post-monsoon (September–November).

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 Evaluation of temperature trends over India 85

The temperature data of 125 stations distributed throughout India were collected
from the India Meteorological Department and annual mean temperature, annual mean
maximum temperature and annual mean minimum temperature series were prepared.
Seasonal average temperature series, seasonal maximum temperature series and
seasonal minimum temperature series were prepared for each principal season.
In regional analysis, problems occur in selecting stations with the same time
frame. Comparison of results for the different time period leads to several observations
(Burn et al., 2004). It was found that 54 stations had a common data period of 1941–
1999. In many other cases the starting year was the same but the ending year was
earlier by a few years. While applying the test, varying lengths of data for different
stations were considered, as bringing the data to a common period could have sub-
stantially reduced the length of a data set. An autocorrelation test (Yevjevich, 1971)
was applied to test the randomness of the data sets and they were found to be random.

METHODOLOGY
Trends in data can be identified by using either parametric or non-parametric methods.
In the recent past, both methods have been widely used for the detection of trends (e.g.
WMO, 1988; Mitosek, 1992; Chiew & McMahon, 1993; Burn & Elnur 2002). The
nonparametric tests are more suitable for non-normally distributed, censored data,
including missing values, which are frequently encountered in hydrological time series
(Hirsch & Slack, 1984).

Mann-Kendall (MK) test

The MK test used in the present study is based on the test statistic, S, defined as follows:
n −1 n
S =å å sgn( x j − xk ) (1)
k =1 j = k +1

where sgn(θ) = 1 if θ > 0; sgn(θ) = 0 if θ = 0; and sgn(θ) = –1 if θ < 0. Mann and

Kendall have documented that when n ≥ 10, the statistic S is approximately normally
distributed with the mean and the variance as follows:
E[S] = 0 (2)
var[S] = (n(n – 1)(2n + 5) –ått(t – 1)(2t + 5))/18 (3)
where t is the extent of any given tie (number of xs involved in a given tie), and åt
denotes the sum of the terms t(t – 1)(2t + 5), which are evaluated and summed for each
tie of the t number in the data. The standard normal variable Z is computed by:
ìï S − 1 üï
Z =í 1 ý
if S > 0
ïî[var(S )] 2 ïþ
Z =0 if S = 0 (4)
ìï S + 1 üï
Z =í 1 ý
if S < 0
ïî[var(S )] 2 ïþ

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 86 Manohar Arora et al.

The values of test statistics are computed and it may be seen that, if the value lies
within the limits –1.96 and 1.96, the null hypothesis of having no trend in the series
cannot be rejected at the 5% level of significance using a two-tailed test.

Determination of anomalies
For better understanding of the observed trends, the temperature anomalies were
computed. These temperature anomalies were plotted against time and the linear trends
observed were represented graphically. The anomalies for maximum, minimum and
mean temperatures for different regions and seasons with respect to their mean of
59 years (1941–1999) are shown in Figs 1–3. The linear trend value, represented by
the slope of a simple least-square regression line with time as the independent variable
gives the magnitude of rise or fall in temperature. Although a maximum possible
number of stations was used, it is necessary to confirm the results with a more
homogeneous and updated data set.

0.8 Maximum Temperature 1.2 1.5

Minimum Temperature Average Temperature

0.8 1
0.4

0.4 0.5
0
0 0

-0.4
-0.4 -0.5

-0.8 -0.8 -1

1940 1960 1980 2000 1940 1960 1980 2000 1940 1960 1980 2000

Fig. 1 Anomalies in annual temperature.

Table 1 Summary of results (number of stations = 125).

Variable related to temperature Number of Number of Significant trends
stations with stations with (%)
falling trends rising trends
Annual average 17 53 56
Annual average maximum 8 63 56
Annual average minimum 31 33 51
Winter average 19 39 46
Winter average maximum 17 48 52
Winter average minimum 15 32 37
Pre-monsoon average 35 23 46
Pre-monsoon average maximum 18 42 48
Pre-monsoon average minimum 42 15 45
Monsoon average 18 27 36
Monsoon average maximum 3 47 40
Monsoon average minimum 41 22 50
Post-monsoon average 6 59 52
Post-monsoon average maximum 4 73 61
Post-monsoon average minimum 10 38 38

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 Evaluation of temperature trends over India 87

1 1.5 South
North

0.5 1

0 0.5

-0.5 0

-1 -0.5

-1.5 -1

1940 1960 1980 2000 1940 1960 1980 2000

1 1
East West

0.5

0
0

-0.5
-1

-1

-1.5 -2

1940 1960 1980 2000 1940 1960 1980 2000

Fig. 2 Anomalies in annual mean temperature of different regions.

1.5 Winter
2 Pre-monsoon

1
1
0.5

0
0

-0.5 -1

-1
-2
1940 1960 1980 2000
1940 1960 1980 2000
1.2 Monsoon 1.2 Post-monsoon

0.8
0.8

0.4
0.4
0
0
-0.4

-0.8 -0.4

-1.2 -0.8

1940 1960 1980 2000 1940 1960 1980 2000

Fig. 3 Anomalies in seasonal mean temperature.

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88 Manohar Arora et al.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The Mann-Kendall test was applied on three different parameters of annual and
seasonal temperatures. A brief summary of results obtained is given in Table 1.

Annual trends

It is observed that the percentage of significant trends obtained for the three annual
temperature parameters, viz. annual mean, annual mean maximum and annual mean
minimum, are 56, 56 and 51, respectively. The mean maximum temperature series
shows a rising trend at 63 stations and a falling trend at eight stations. The mean
minimum temperature shows a rising trend at 33 stations and a falling trend at 31
stations. In the annual mean temperature series, a rising trend is observed at 53 stations
and a falling trend at 17 stations. The distribution of observed trend is shown in Fig. 4.
From Fig. 4, it may be seen that most of the stations located in the south, central and
western parts of India show a rising trend and some stations located in the north and
northeastern India show a falling trend in annual mean temperature. This falling trend
in annual mean temperature may be due to the falling trend in the annual mean
minimum temperatures of these stations—most of which are located in the foothills of
the Himalayas. The temperature anomalies for the three variables are shown in Fig. 1.
The annual mean temperature has increased by 0.42°C during the last 100 years. A rise
of 0.92°C (100 year)-1 in the annual mean maximum temperature and a rise of 0.09°C
(100 year)-1 in mean minimum temperature are observed. The temperature anomalies
for annual mean temperatures of different regions of India are presented in Fig. 2;
Fig. 3 depicts the anomalies in seasonal mean temperatures; and the trends in annual
mean temperatures in different regions are shown in Fig. 4. The stations located in
southern and western regions show a rising trend of 1.06 and 0.36°C (100 year)-1,
respectively, while the stations of the northern plains show a falling trend of
–0.38°C (100 year)-1.

× no trend; o rising trend; • falling trend

Fig. 4 Observed trends in annual mean temperatures.

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 Evaluation of temperature trends over India 89

Seasonal trends

The percentage of significant trends for the three variables in the winter season was
found to be 46, 52 and 37, respectively. The number of stations showing a rising trend
in the mean maximum winter temperature is 48 and that with falling trend is 17. The
mean minimum winter temperature series shows 32 stations with a rising trend and 15
stations with a falling trend. In the mean winter temperature series, a rising trend is
observed at 39 stations and a falling trend at 19 stations. The distribution of stations
having winter temperature trends is shown in Fig. 5. From this figure, it may be
observed that most of the stations in the coastal and southern areas show an increasing
trend, while a falling trend is exhibited by some stations in north, central and eastern
India. There is a rise in temperature of 1.1°C (100 year)-1 during the winter and
0.94°C (100 year)-1 during the post-monsoon season.
For the pre-monsoon season, the percentage of significant trends observed is
approximately in the same range for all the three variables: viz. 46, 48 and 45
respectively. But for the mean maximum temperature series, 42 stations show a rising
trend and 18 stations a falling trend, whereas for mean minimum temperature, 15
stations show a rising trend and 42 stations a falling trend. The combined effect of both
of these variables is observed in mean pre-monsoon temperature trends, with a rising
trend at 35 stations and a falling trend at 23 stations. The distribution of these stations
and observed trends are shown in Fig. 6. It is apparent that most of the stations in the
eastern region and in the foothills of the Himalayas show a falling trend. Some stations
in western and southern regions also show a falling trend.
The percentage of significant trends observed for three variables in the monsoon
season is 36, 40 and 50, respectively, which is lower as compared to other seasons. In a
similar pattern to that observed for the pre-monsoon season, 47 stations show a rising
trend and three a falling trend in the monsoon season mean maximum temperature
series. In the mean minimum temperature series, a rising trend exists for 22 stations
and a falling trend for 41 stations. For the mean monsoon temperature series, 27

× no trend; o rising trend; • falling trend

Fig. 5 Observed trends during the winter season.

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90 Manohar Arora et al.

× no trend; o rising trend; • falling trend

Fig. 6 Observed trends during the pre-monsoon season.

× no trend; o rising trend; • falling trend

Fig. 7 Observed trends during the monsoon season.

stations show a rising trend and 18 stations a falling trend. The observed trends at
different stations during the monsoon season are shown in Fig. 7.
The percentage of significant trends for the three variables in the post-monsoon
season is 51, 61 and 38, respectively. In the mean maximum temperature series, 73
stations show a rising trend and four a falling trend, while in the mean minimum
temperature series, 38 stations have a rising trend and 10 a falling trend. In the mean
post-monsoon temperature series, 59 stations show a rising trend and six a falling
trend. The distribution of observed trends during the post-monsoon season is shown in
Fig. 8. It may be seen that a rising temperature trend dominates all over India during
this season.

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 Evaluation of temperature trends over India 91

× no trend; o rising trend; • falling trend

Fig. 8 Observed trends during the post-monsoon season.

CONCLUSION

The global average surface temperature has increased by 0.6 ± 0.2°C over the last
century (IPCC, 2001) and it is expected that, by 2100, the increase in temperature
could be 1.4–5.8°C. Temperature changes have not been uniform globally, but have
varied over regions and different parts of the lower atmosphere. In the Indian context,
a number of researchers have reported a rise in temperature. However, these studies are
based on individual sites or on a small number of sites. In the present study, an
analysis was carried out to identify the trends in average, maximum and minimum
temperatures on annual and seasonal data of 125 stations distributed over the whole of
India.
For the identification of trend, the non-parametric Mann Kendall test was applied.
The trend patterns were identified for every individual station. Three variables of
temperature i.e. mean, mean maximum and mean minimum were considered in the
analysis for different seasons as well as for the year as a whole. It was found that the
percentage of significant trends obtained is high enough. The trends observed for the
three variables on both an annual and a seasonal basis has been shown. It was found
that there is a rising trend in most cases, except for mean pre-monsoon temperature,
mean monsoon temperature, pre-monsoon mean minimum temperature and monsoon
mean minimum temperature. From the anomalies plotted, it may be seen that there is
an increase of 0.42°C (100 year)-1 in the annual mean temperature, 0.92°C (100 year)-1
in the mean maximum temperature and 0.09°C (100 year)-1 in the mean minimum
temperature. The south Indian stations show a rise of 1.06°C (100 year)-1 in mean
regional temperature; west Indian stations show a rise in temperature of the order of
0.36°C (100 year)-1; north Indian stations show a fall in temperature of the order of
–0.38°C (100 year)-1. Averaged for all seasons, there is a rise of 1.1°C (100 year)-1 in
the mean winter temperature, 0.94°C (100 year)-1 in mean post-monsoon temperature,
and a fall of –0.40°C (100 year)-1 in mean pre-monsoon temperature.

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92 Manohar Arora et al.

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Received 4 March 2004; accepted 21 October 2004

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