PROBABILITY

Probability: Measure of uncertainty

Experiment: Experiment is any procedure that can be infinitely repeated and has a well-
defined set of possible outcomes.
Deterministic experiments is an experiment with always same outcome. 𝐻2 𝑂 Water, Boil
Water100𝑜
Random experiments is an experiment with at least two possible outcomes probability deals
with random experiment.
Basic Outcomes: The possible outcomes at a random experiment are called basic outcomes.
Sample Space: The set of all basic outcomes is called the sample space.

Event: An event is a set of basic outcomes from the sample space and is said to occur if the
random experiment gives rise to one of its constituent basic outcomes.

Random experiment Basic outcomes Event

Roll a dice  1,2,3,4,5,6  Even numbers

Flip a coin  Head,tail  Tail
Select a card from a desk  52 card  Finding a heart space

𝑛𝐴 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

P(A)= =𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
𝑛

Factorial  This is the product of all numbers from n down to 1 or from 1 up to n.

𝑛! = 𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2). … . 2.1

Permutation  Is a selection of all or part of a set of objects, with regard to the order in
which objects are selected.

𝑛!
𝑃𝑛𝑘 =
(𝑛 − 𝑘)!
Combination  Is a selection of all or part of a set of objects, without regard to the order in
which objects are selected.
𝑛!
𝐶𝑛𝑘 =
(𝑛 − 𝑘)!. 𝑘!

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Example 1: Find the number of possible different ways of how 3 people can sit to three
chairs!

𝑛! = 𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2) … .2.1.

3! = 3 . 2 . 1 = 6

Example 2: Assume that there are 4 different letters to be used.

a) Find the number of possible orders of 4 letters!

4! = 4 . 3 . 2 . 1 = 24

b) Find the number of possible orders of 2 of 4 letters and with regard to the order!

𝑛! 4! 4.3.2.1
𝑃𝑛𝑘 = = = = 12
(𝑛 − 𝑘)! (4 − 2)! 2.1

c) Find the number of possible orders of 2 of 4 letters and without regard to the order!

𝑛! 4! 4.3.2.1
𝐶𝑛𝑘 = = = =6
(𝑛 − 𝑘)!. 𝑘! (4 − 2)! .2! 2.1.2.1

Example 3: Assume that there are 2, 3, 5, 7, 8 to be used.

a) Find the number of possible numbers with 3 digits!

5 4 3 = 60  without replacement
5 5 5 = 125  with replacement

b) Find the number of possible even numbers with 3 digits!

Without replacement  4 . 3 . 2 = 24
With replacement  5 . 5 . 2 = 50

c) Find the number of possible number less than 500 with 3 digits

Without replacement  2 . 4 . 3 = 24
With replacement  2 . 5 . 5 = 50

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Example 4: Three are 20 balls numbered from 1 to 20 in a bag. 4 balls will be selected with
and without replacement. Find the number of possible outcomes!

With replacement  20 . 20 . 20 . 20 =204

Without replacement 20 . 19 . 18 . 17 =116.280

𝑛! 20! 20.19.18.17.16!
𝑃𝑛𝑘 = = = = 116280
(𝑛 − 𝑘)! (20 − 4)! 16!

Probability and Its postulates

1. If A is any event in the sample space S

0≤ 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 1

2. Let A be an event in S, let 0𝑖 denote the possible outcomes. Then

P(A)=∑ 𝑃(0𝑖 )

3. P(S)=1

Note: Random Experiment Possible Outcomes A random event

CALCULATION OF PROBABILITY OF ONE RANDOM EVENT

Example 1: Find the probability of having an odd number if one dice is thrown.
Solution:
Experiment: Throwing a dice
Basic Outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Random Event: Having an odd number (1, 3, 5)

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 3 1

𝑃(𝐴) = = =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 6 2

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Example 2: There are 6 blue, 5 black and 4 red balls in a bag. Find the probability of having a
black ball in one selection!
Solution:
Experiment: Selecting one ball
Basic Outcomes: 15 balls
Random Event: Having a black ball (5 balls)

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 5 1

𝑃(𝐴) = = =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 15 3

Example 3: Find the probability of having the same faces if 2 dice are thrown!
Solution:
Experiment: Throwing two dice
Basic Outcomes: 36 different outcomes
Random Event: Having the same faces { (1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4) , (5,5), (6,6) }

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 6 1

𝑃(𝐴) = = =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 36 6

Example 4: There are 9 blue, 7 black and 4 yellow balls in a bag. Find the probability of not
having a black ball in one selection!
Solution:
Experiment: Selecting a ball
Basic Outcomes: 20 balls
Random Event: Not having a black ball (13 balls)

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 13 7 13

𝑃(𝐴) = = 𝑜𝑟 1 − =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 20 20 20

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Example 5: Assume that one student will be selected from the class having the following
properties.

Man Woman
Passed 150 100
Failed 30 20
180 120 300

a) Find the probability of selecting a man student?

180
𝑃(𝑀) =
300

b) Find the probability of selecting a man and passed student?

150
𝑃(𝐴) =
300

c) Find the probability of selecting a woman and failed student!

20
𝑃(𝐵) =
300