SSRN Id1661528
SSRN Id1661528
Oguzhan Dincer
Illinois State University
[email protected]
Russell B. Gregory-Allen*
Massey University
[email protected]
Hany A. Shawky
University at Albany, SUNY, Albany
[email protected]
July 2010
*
Corresponding author
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Are You Smarter than a CFA'er?
Abstract
Several studies have examined whether a portfolio manager having an MBA degree or
being a CFA charter holder leads to superior portfolio performance, with generally mixed results.
Possible reasons for the mixed findings are that most studies have considered the impact of a
manager having either an MBA or a CFA separately, have not controlled for managers’ style
targets, and have used different performance metrics. We examine separately and jointly the
impact of portfolio managers having an MBA, a CFA and investment experience on portfolio
performance, while controlling for market conditions and style targets, using five different
portfolio performance measurements, and two different risk measurements. For individual
models or methods, we find various weak evidence consistent with most previous literature.
Once we take all the models and methods jointly into consideration, we find no significant
difference in returns attributable to MBA, CFA or Experience, but more significantly, we find
that on average, CFAs reduce and MBAs increase portfolio risk.
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Are You Smarter than a CFA'er?: Manager Qualifications and
Portfolio Performance
Introduction
Researchers have long been interested in the agency aspects of the management of
investment portfolios. This has led to a large number of studies that attempt to relate manager
characteristics to portfolio performance. Human capital theory implies that managers with
greater ability should, at least in the long run, have portfolios with better performance than
"average". A natural extension of this is that managers with better education ought to exhibit
better performance. Common forms of education for portfolio managers are generally a formal
MBA degree, a CFA certification, or accumulated experience from the School of Hard Knocks.
Previous research in this area has found mixed and conflicting results, but has used a
variety of different methods. We consider multiple methods to reconcile all the results.
Collectively, we find that after adjusting for risk and portfolio style targets, there is no significant
difference in the return performance of these portfolios that is attributable to manager
educational qualifications. More importantly however, we find that managers with CFA
designations have portfolios with substantially lower risk, while managers with MBA degrees
have portfolios with higher levels of risk.
Related Literature
Previous research has focused primarily on two issues: First, does the CFA designation
add value in terms of providing better portfolio performance? Second, does an MBA degree add
value? The stream of studies on the value of an MBA has also had some interest in relating the
“quality” of the MBA granting school to the portfolio performance of the manager. A few
studies have included both the MBA and the CFA in their analysis and some have also included
other manager characteristics, such as gender and age.
A review of the literature reveals that it is difficult to discern a pattern with respect to the
relative value of a given educational degree. As noted recently in Wright (2010), one of the
problems in finding consistency is the variation in methodologies and performance measures
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used. Studies use different measures of return, different comparison factors, and different
samples. Some studies look only at the value of a CFA designation, others examine only the
value of an MBA, and some look at both. With respect to methodology, some studies use returns
in excess of a benchmark, some use CAPM, and others use 3- or 4-factor models.
Shukla and Singh (1994) were the first to examine the value of a CFA designation. They
found that portfolios with at least one CFA manager on the team performed better than portfolios
without such a person. Soon after, Golec (1996) took a similar approach, examining the
performance of MBAs, but also considering age and job tenure, and adding style controls to the
estimation model. He found evidence of better performance from younger managers with longer
tenure, and from managers with MBAs.
In a similar vein, Chevalier and Ellison (1999) and Gottesman and Morey (2006)
examine MBAs, but focus on the quality of the education, using average SAT or GMAT scores
as the quality proxy. They find that higher quality schools produce managers who yield better
performance, and that age reduces return, while experience decreases beta.
Gottesman and Morey (GM 2006), Boyson (2002), Friis and Smit (FS 2004), Switzer and
Huang (SH 2007), and Li, Zhao and Zhang (LZZ 2008) consider MBA and CFA, most including
tenure. For MBAs, all except Boyson find no impact, while Boyson finds MBAs underperform.
For CFAs, GM find they underperform, SH and FS find CFAs outperform, and Boyson finds
mixed evidence. For tenure, SH and LZZ find no impact; GM and Boyson find a negative
impact.
These widely varying results are somewhat disconcerting. The studies vary in approach
using different models, with and without risk-controls, and over different time periods - some
over strongly bullish periods, some strongly bearish. Further, they have used different
CFA/MBA definitions, some have not controlled for survivor bias, and none have controlled for
overlap between CFAs and MBAs.
What is missing from the current literature is a study that directly compares CFA, MBA
and Experience, while controlling for CFA/MBA overlap, risk and style factors, survivor bias,
and unusual market periods. This study does just that.
We use the PSN Database, a unique dataset which contains quantitative and qualitative
information on over 11,000 independent equity and fixed income portfolios privately managed
by over 2000 companies. The manager of each of the portfolios fills out a lengthy questionnaire,
and PSN compiles this information into a flexible and searchable database. This data is marketed
to investment professionals, primarily Pension Plan Sponsors, Endowments, Foundations and
corporate and institutional money managers who use it as a tool to identify and select investment
managers. Managers have a strong economic incentive to be complete and accurate in their
reporting, since PSN is the only database widely used by institutions to identify funds for their
clients.
Our sample is limited to those portfolios where we have CFA and MBA data, that are
AIMR compliant, and which have at least 12 months of returns data over the study period, 2005-
2007.1 We eliminate funds where the fund family has less than $100 million in assets under
management (AUM), and individual portfolios with less than $1 million. In our final sample of
890 funds, over 500 list more than one manager. For each fund, there is a Primary manager,
which PSN designates as the Key Portfolio Manager (KPM), and as many as nine other
managers, although the maximum number of managers observed in our sample for any one fund
is six.
1
As observed in Gottesman and Morey (2006), a very strong bull market (or even a strongly bearish market)
could have an impact on comparing managers with different risk aversion. So, we use a relatively calm market
period just before the recent financial crisis. We identified managers as of end of 2006. As Fabozzi, et al (2008)
note, average manager tenure is 3 years, so we start one year before, and go one year after. This allows us to be
reasonably confident that the majority of these funds were managed by these managers during that period.
For the 890 portfolios in our sample, the average Active return (portfolio return in excess
of the benchmark) is 2.9 basis points, the average excess return over the SP500 is 6.1 bps, and
performance measured by the Carhart alpha is -8.2 bps. In addition, the average Tracking Error
(TE) is 1.34, and the average Information Ratio (IR) is 0.6 bps. If we sort the sample into size
quartiles, we do not see much difference in these averages, except in the case of the Information
Ratio where the smallest funds have an IR value of -0.5 bps, while the largest group have an IR
value of 1.6 bps.
In terms of style, we have data on what specific strategy the fund managers identify as
important. For example, if the manager says that growth is important to their fund i, then our
dummy variable is set equal to one (Groi= 1). About 38% of funds are Growth, 31% are Value,
and 20% are Core (include both Growth and Value), and about 12% are some other characteristic
(PSN has about 25 total possible style characteristics). Once again, fund size does not appear to
reveal any consistent differences among these strategies.
One of the issues in portfolio analysis that is well-known to practitioners but often
overlooked by academics, is that managers use different benchmarks and that managers often
change their benchmarks. We provide in Appendix 1 the frequency distribution of the
2
In the few cases when graduate degree listed PHD, it rarely indicated a major. For this reason, we do not
consider PHD.
Empirical Methodology
In this section, we examine a variety of risk adjustment models in which we control for
fund size and management styles. In order to examine the marginal performance of individual
fund managers that is due to the type of education, we use a two stage regression procedure.
First, we estimate portfolio performance using five different but widely used performance
measures: benchmark adjusted return (Active return), Market Out-performance4, the original
Jensen (1968) alpha, the Fama and French (1993) three factor model and alpha from the Carhart
(1997) 4-factor model:
(1) (
ActiveRet i = mean Ri ,t − RBi ,t
t
)
MktOutperformancei = mean ( Ri ,t − RSP 500,t )
(2)
Ri = α Jensen ,i + β1 RSP 500 + ε i
(3)
Ri = α FF ,i + β 1 RSP 500 + β 2 SMB + β 3 HML + η i
(4)
Ri = α Carhart ,i + β1 RSP 500 + β 2 SMB + β3 HML + β 4 MOM + ε i
(5)
where:
Ri = return for fund i, in excess of fees and the 90 day US Tbill rate,
RSP 500 = return on the S&P500, in excess of the 90 day US Tbill rate,
3
For each fund and each year, we determine what benchmark the fund reports using. About 8% of the funds
changed their benchmark during our sample period. See Appendix 1 for details.
4
Of course, for any fund that uses SP500 as their benchmark, Market Out-Performance and Active return will
be identical, but only 22% of our sample have this issue (see Table A.1).
It should be noted however, that a regression based on these classifications and one of the
performance measures does not take into consideration the fact that different types of managers
have different objectives and styles. Moreover, Berk and Green (2004) and others have
suggested a strong link between portfolio size and performance. Thus, we add as control
variables: log of fund size, and 3 more dummy variables to control for the style target of the fund
(Growth, Value or Core).
Our first model simply considers education type and experience for the Key Portfolio
Manager:
Where α i represents one of the five the performance metrics, and the other variables are
defined as described above.
where JenB is the beta from Jensen’s alpha model, estimated using equation (2). As with
the return equations, we estimate the risk models both with the general CFA/MBA
classifications, the CFAonly and MBAonly, and the AnyCFA and AnyMBA classifications.
Another common metric in the industry used to assess portfolio risk is through estimating
the portfolios’ tracking error. Although there are some competing definitions, the most widely
used measure of TE is the standard deviation of the difference between the returns of the
portfolio and the portfolio’s benchmark:
di ,t = Ri ,t − RBi ,t ,t
TEi = std ( d i ,t )
(9)
Empirical Findings
Impact of Manager Qualifications on Portfolio Returns
We begin with the simplest model, estimating cross-sectional regressions with each of
our performance metrics, in order to distinguish between the performance of portfolios whose
managers have an MBA or a CFA. In Panel A of Table 2, we see that neither an MBA nor a
CFA add value, regardless of the measure used, with or without control variables. Experience,
on the other hand, shows a slight tendency (at 10% level) to underperform, when evaluated with
Market Out-Performance5.
The result pertaining to the apparent superior portfolio performance for managers with
MBAs is similar to the findings in some previous studies. However, once we add a more
5
Complete regression results are shown in the Appendix.
10
Since most portfolios are managed by teams of managers, it is possible that any manager
on the team having a particular education might help the portfolio. Similar to Shukla and Singh
(1994), we show in Panel C of Table 2 the results of any one manager on the team having an
MBA or a CFA, by estimating the relationship between the portfolio return measures on the
variables AnyMBA and AnyCFA. As before, when measuring performance with active return,
having an MBA on the team has a slightly significant benefit (only at the 10% level); but for any
other return model, there is no significant impact of educational qualification on portfolio
performance.
Summarizing the return estimations, what we have so far is that the type of education or
experience a manager has does not have much impact on return. Furthermore, what little impact
is found seems to be completely a function of exactly how we measure performance and how we
categorize managers. This may shed some light on why many previous studies have had
conflicting results.
While portfolio returns get more attention as a performance yardstick, controlling risk is
just as important as generating large positive returns. In this subsection, we examine in detail
whether manager qualification has a significant impact on the management of risk. We use both
the portfolio’s market beta and its tracking error to measure portfolio risk. We model each of
these risk measures in a manner similar to the return equations described above.
Once again, we begin with the simplest model, regressing market beta and tracking error
on MBA, CFA and Experience. We find (Table 3, panel A) that neither MBAs nor CFAs have
6
Moreover, as seen in the Appendix Table A.3, the R-squares from the regressions showing this apparent
positive performance are essentially 0.
11
Summarizing the risk estimations, we find that MBAs tend to increase risk and CFAs
tend to reduce risk. This finding is relatively insensitive to how we classify managers or how we
measure risk.
12
Considering all methods, we find that there is little statistically significant difference in
the return performance of equity portfolios that are managed by individuals with MBAs, CFAs,
or extensive industry Experience from those that are managed by individuals without any of
these qualifications. Once we look at all the evidence in aggregate, the lack of a discernable
return differential is clear.
With respect to portfolio risk, the results are even more interesting. First, Experience
tends to reduce portfolio Beta risk. Second, whether risk is measured by Beta or Tracking Error,
we find an important distinction between managers with MBAs and those with CFAs: we
consistently find that CFAs manage portfolios that have lower risk than portfolios managed by
MBAs, even though their respective portfolio returns are statistically indistinguishable.
The impact of education method on the portfolio’s risk is potentially a very interesting
result. One possible explanation is that our MBAs and CFAs are drawn from different
populations. Perhaps graduate programs in Business Schools somehow attract risk-lovers. Or
perhaps CFA’s are drawn to more risk-averse compensation schemes. What seems certain is that
others will have comments on our result.
13
Boyson (2002). “How are Hedge Fund Manager Characteristics Related to Performance,
Volatility, and Survival?” (SSRN).
Carhart, M. (1997). “On persistence in mutual fund performance”, Journal of Finance 52, 57-82.
Chevalier and Ellison (1999). "Are some Mutual Fund Managers better than others? Cross-
sectional patterns of behavior and performance", Journal of Finance, June 1999.
Fabozzi, J.,Frank., Sergio M. Focardi, and Caroline Jonas. (2008) Research Foundation of CFA
Institute Publications, Challenges in Quantitative Equity Management: 1-110.
Fama, E. and K. French (1993). "Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds,"
Journal of Financial Economics, 33 (1) 3-56.
Friis, L. B. and Smit, E. vd M., "Are some fund managers better than others? Manager
Characteristics and Fund Performance," South African Journal of Business Management
(September 2004); Vol. 35, No. 3; pp. 31-40.
Golec (1996) “The Effects of Mutual Fund Managers' Characteristics on their Portfolio
Performance, Risk and Fees”. Financial Services Review, 5(2), pp. 133-148.).
Gottesman and Morey (2006) "Manager education and mutual fund performance" Journal of
Empirical Finance, 13, pp. 145-182.
Jensen, M. C. (1968). “The performance of mutual funds in the period 1945-1964”, Journal of
Finance 23, 389-416.
Li, Haitao, Zhao, Rui and Zhang, Xiaoyan, Investing in Talents: Manager Characteristics and
Hedge Fund Performances (March 2008). Available at SSRN:
http://ssrn.com/abstract=1107050
Shukla and Singh (1994) "Are CFA charterholders better equity fund managers?" Financial
Analysts Journal, 6, pp.68-74.
Switzer and Huang (2007) "Management characteristics and the performance of small & mid-cap
mutual funds" (SSRN).
Wright, C. (2010) “Clearing the Bar: Are CFA charterholders superior performers?” CFA
Magazine, Jan/Feb 2010, pp. 22-25.
14
Panel A: Portfolio size and Key Portfolio Manager or any team member having CFA or
MBA Designations
Size MBA &
Size ($mill) MBAs CFAs MBAonly CFAonly CFA AnyCFA AnyMBA
Tertile Mean
1 61.6 26.7% 39.9% 7.4% 20.6% 19.3% 45.3% 31.8%
2 385.9 28.7% 40.2% 12.2% 23.7% 16.6% 47.5% 35.6%
3 2978.8 30.1% 39.9% 12.2% 22.0% 17.9% 44.9% 37.2%
ALL 1143 28.4% 40.0% 10.6% 22.2% 17.9% 45.8% 34.7%
15
RETURN MEASURES
Raw Return Risk-Adjusted Return
Fama-
Active Market Out- Jensen Carhart
French
Return performance alpha alpha
alpha
Panel A
CFA
MBA
KPMtenure -
with CFA
controls MBA
KPMtenure -
Panel B
CFAonly +
MBAonly +
MBA&CFA
KPMtenure --
with CFAonly
controls MBAonly +
MBA&CFA
KPMtenure -- -
Panel C
AnyCFA
AnyMBA +
with AnyCFA
controls AnyMBA
“+” indicates positive impact: “+ + +” significant at 1% level, “+ +” at 5%, “+” at 10%
“-” indicates negative impact: “- - -” significant at 1% level, “- -” at 5%, “-” at 10%
16
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Table 3
RISK MEASURES
Market Beta Tracking Error
Panel A
CFA ---
MBA ++
KPMtenure --
with CFA ---
controls MBA +++ +++
KPMtenure --
Panel B
CFAonly ---
MBAonly ++
MBA&CFA
KPMtenure
KPMtenure --
Panel C
AnyCFA ---
AnyMBA + +++
with AnyCFA ---
controls AnyMBA +++ +++
“+” indicates positive impact: “+ + +” significant at 1% level, “+ +” at 5%, “+” at 10%
“-” indicates negative impact: “- - -” significant at 1% level, “- -” at 5%, “-” at 10%
17
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Appendix
Table A.1
Descriptive statistics about Benchmarks used
Benchmark* No. of Fund Years' % of Total
(out of total 2656)
90 Day U.S. TBill 22 0.8
DJ/Wilshire REIT 12 0.5
Domini 400 3 0.1
ML All US CNVRT 12 0.5
MSCI US REIT 6 0.2
MSCI USA 5 0.2
MSCI World 3 0.1
NAREIT 15 0.6
NASDAQ 8 0.3
RUS 1000 42 1.6
RUS 1000 Growth 385 14.5
RUS 1000 Value 302 11.4
RUS 2000 195 7.3
RUS 2000 Growth 247 9.3
RUS 2000 Value 149 5.6
RUS 2500 22 0.8
RUS 2500 Growth 43 1.6
RUS 2500 Value 37 1.4
RUS 3000 62 2.3
RUS 3000 Growth 56 2.1
RUS 3000 Value 39 1.5
RUS Mid Cap 49 1.8
RUS Mid Growth 170 6.4
RUS Mid Value 113 4.3
RUS Top 200 GR 5 0.2
S&P 400 Mid Cap 50 1.9
S&P 500 573 21.6
S&P 500 Growth 2 0.1
S&P 500 Value 6 0.2
S&P 600 Small Cap 17 0.6
S&P 600 Small Value 1 0
WILSHIRE 5000 5 0.2
*8.1% of Funds changed Benchmarks during 2005-2007.
18
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Table A.2
Impact of control variables on performance models7
Excess Active Market Out-
return Return performance Jensen FamaFrench Carhart
7
We should note that while these R-squares may seem low, one must remember that these are cross-
sectional regressions where the left-hand side variables are regression intercepts generated after the underlying
risk model has been already estimated in a time series regression. The average R-squares from the time series
regressions which estimated the alphas are much higher; 99% were above 0.30, with the average R-squares for
the Jensen, Fama-French, and Carhart models being 0.71, 0.73 and 0.74 respectively.
19
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Table A.3
Return metrics: All CFAs, MBAs
Active Market Jensen FF Carhart Active Market Jensen FF Carhart
Return Out- α α α Return Out- α α α
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perform perform
CFA 0.007 .029 0.031 0.031 0.028 -.003 .016 .025 .033 .031
(0.3) (1.22) (1.38) (1.34) (1.22) (-0.12) (0.68) (1.12) (1.37) (1.37)
MBA 0.027 .02 0.008 0.009 0.018 .034 .030 .012 .003 .009
(1.07) (0.76) (0.29) (0.35) (0.69) (1.4) (1.13) (0.48) (0.12) (0.33)
KPMten -0.002 -.003** -.002 -.002 -.002 -.002 -.003** -.002 -.003* -.002
(-1.26) (-2.15) (-1.43) (-1.23) (-1.12) (-1.2) (-2.21) (-1.6) (-1.75) (-1.46)
CFAonly 0.032 0.048 0.039 0.034 0.029 0.017 0.028 0.030 0.035 0.034
(1.23) (1.76)* (1.48) (1.21) (1.12) (0.66) (1.03) (1.11) (1.21) (1.28)
MBAonly 0.071 0.054 0.021 0.013 0.021 0.071 0.051 0.020 0.006 0.014
(1.83)* (1.36) (0.58) (0.32) (0.57) (1.90)* (1.37) (0.56) (0.14) (0.37)
CFA&MBA 0.022 0.039 0.035 0.040 0.044 0.024 0.039 0.036 0.036 0.039
(0.70) (1.21) (1.11) (1.24) (1.42) (0.74) (1.22) (1.13) (1.10) (1.24)
KPM Tenure -0.002 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.003 -0.002 -0.003 -0.002
(-1.31) (-2.19)** (-1.44) (-1.23) (-1.12) (-1.22) (-2.22)** (-1.60) (-1.75)* (-1.46)
Any CFA -0.016 -.005 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006 -0.025 -.016 -0.009 -0.000 0.001
(-0.73) (-0.20) (-0.26) (-0.24) (-0.29) (-1.13) (-.72) (-0.41) (-0.04) (-0.03)
Any MBA 0.034 -.005 0.015 0.011 0.015 0.040 .039 0.018 0.004 0.006
(1.39) (1.25) (0.63) (0.42) (0.62) (1.65) (1.54) (0.72) (0.15) (0.26)
TE Jensen β TE Jensen β
23
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Table A.7
Risk metrics: CFAonly, MBAonly, Both, and Experience
TE Jensen β TE Jensen β
24
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