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Traffic flow model at fixed control signals with discrete service time
distribution

Article in Croatian Operational Research Review · April 2016

DOI: 10.17535/crorr.2016.0002

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Croatian Operational Research Review 19
CRORR 7(2016), 19–32

Traffic flow model at fixed control signals with discrete

service time distribution

Lucky I. Igbinosun1,* and Sunday E.Omosigho2

1
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Uyo,
Nwaniba Road, Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria.
〈[email protected]〉
2
Department of Mathematics, University of Benin,
Uselu, Benin City, Nigeria.
〈[email protected]〉

Abstract. Most of the models of road traffic flow at fixed-cycle controlled intersection
assume stationary distributions and provide steady state results. The assumption that a
constant number of vehicles can leave the system during the green phase is unrealistic in
real life situations. A discrete time queuing model was developed to describe the
operation of traffic flow at a road intersection with fixed-cycle signalized control and to
account for the randomness in the number of vehicles that can leave the system. The
results show the expected queue size in the system when the traffic is light and for a
busy period, respectively. For the light period, when the traffic intensity is less than one,
it takes a shorter green cycle time for vehicles to clear up than during high traffic
intensity (the road junction is saturated). Increasing the number of cars that can leave
the junction at the turn of the green phase reduces the number of cycle times before the
queue is cleared.

Key words: vehicle queue size, fixed cycle, road traffic intersection

Received: January 25, 2015; accepted: March 4, 2016; available online: March 31, 2016

DOI: 10.17535/crorr.2016.0002

1. Introduction

Road traffic queues are waiting lines which occur whenever vehicles must wait
to access a facility. An intersection may be controlled or signalized for a number
of reasons, most of which relate to the safety and effective movement of
conflicting vehicular and pedestrian flows through the intersection. The facility
may be busy and therefore unavailable to render the required service, thus
resulting in congestion. Road traffic congestion is a problem in many countries.
It causes considerable costs due to unproductive time losses, accidents, air

*
Corresponding author.

http://www.hdoi.hr/crorr-journal ©2016 Croatian Operational Research Society

20 Lucky I. Igbinosun and Sunday E. Omosigho

pollution, fuel wastage, etc. The problem of road traffic congestion is worsened
in many cities by the lack of real time information on traffic flows, lack of
adequate data gathering facilities and a systematic methodology for optimizing
road traffic flow through available road facilities. Given the cost of road traffic
congestion to society, a comprehensive study of urban road network is
necessary. A good understanding of vehicular traffic flow is a knowledge gap in
modern societies.
Some initiatives such as staggered work hours, flextime, ramp metering,
road widening, etc. have been proposed to alleviate problems associated with
road traffic congestion, but the level and period of congestion in most major
urban areas is increasing.
Viti and Van Zuylen [23] argue that “queue estimation at a controlled
intersection is a problem in transportation engineering and operations research.”
Queue dynamics have been modeled as deterministic phenomena, and under
rather limiting assumptions of a steady state scenario. In urban networks, these
assumptions are far from being deterministic or certain. Deterministic models
based on fluid theory have also been studied and demonstrated as appropriate
for highly oversaturated scenarios [14]. But Viti and Van Zuylen [23] state that
“these models are incapable of estimating the temporal effects that occur when
signals operate near the signal capacity. Modeling these effects and their
probability of occurrence becomes particularly important.” The vast set of
models presented in [23] indicate that there is still no clear insight into the way
queues are experienced at signalized intersections.
The paper is arranged as follows: We present the problem statement in
Section Two and provide a cursory review of literature relevant to the subject of
study in Section Three. In Section Four, we present the discrete model for
traffic flow at a road intersection with a fixed-cycle light. The results are
presented in Section Five and the conclusion of the work is given in Section Six.

2. Problem statement

Viti and Van Zuylen [23] list, among others aspects, the shortcomings of the
previous time-dependent models which include: (1) The assumption that arrivals
and departures follow a specific distribution and have stationary rates. (2) The
initial queue is assumed to be zero at the beginning of the evaluation period. In
the analysis of queues at fixed-controlled intersections, Viti and Van Zuylen [23]
however, provide a methodology that enables the capturing of dynamic and
stochastic effects on queue length that originate from the variability of arrivals.
Omosigho [13] however, shows that if the number of cars at the beginning of the
green phase, i, is less or equal to the number of cars departing during the green
phase, s, i.e. i ≤ s, the expression,
 Traffic flow model at fixed control signals with discrete service time distribution 21

i s

n0
p n (n  i  s) , i  s  a max (1)

given by Viti and Van Zuylen [23] fails to properly capture a situation, which in
turn could lead to a zero state. Omosigho [13] enumerates the events that may
lead to state zero for all i ≤ s and gave a corrected version as,
s s k
PQG (0)   P 2( k )( A2(i )) , (2)
k 0 i 0

where PQG(0) is the probability of having no cars in the queue at the end of
the green phase, P2(k) the probability of k cars in the queue at the beginning of
the green phase, and A2(i) the probability of i arrivals during the green phase.
However, Viti and Van Zuylen [23] and Omosigho [13] assume that the number
of vehicles that can leave the system during the green phase is constant. In
practice, this assumption is unrealistic. In view of the limitations, we develop a
discrete time-dependent model to describe the operation of traffic flow at a road
intersection with fixed-cycle signalized control and to account for the
randomness in the number of vehicles that can leave the system.

3. Literature review

We will discuss some existing works on road traffic queues at signalized

intersections using queuing theory presented in this paper.
Darroch [8] presents a formal solution for the stationary distribution of
queue length at a fixed-cycle traffic light for a fairly general distribution of
arrivals and for a single stream of vehicle. Expressions for the expected queue
length and the expected delay per vehicle were presented.
Rouphail et al. [14] analyse road traffic flow at signalized intersections and
emphasizes the theory of descriptive models of traffic flow. Several models
including the fluid theory approach and the steady-state queuing approach
along with their various advantages and limitations are discussed. In studying or
modeling traffic flow at controlled intersections, the average delay per vehicle,
number of stopped vehicle, number of queued vehicles, expected delays and the
average queue length are among the important performance measures that can
be derived. Due to the minimal effect of the stochastic queuing approach in
extremely congested conditions, the fluid theory approach is considered more
appropriate to use for highly over-saturated conditions. In concluding, Rouphail
et al. [14] agree that there are areas requiring further attention and research,
and the assumption of uncorrelated arrivals found in most models is inadequate
for describing flow. Secondly, an estimation of the initial overflow queue at a
signal is inadequately understood and documented. Queuing models constrained
by physical space available for queuing should also be developed.
22 Lucky I. Igbinosun and Sunday E. Omosigho

Van Leeuwaarden [17] considers the fixed-cycle traffic light (FCTL) queue,
where vehicles arrive at an intersection controlled by a traffic light and form a
queue. He presents the queue length and delay distributions by considering two
arrival Poison and geometric distributions. A method for inverting the
generating functions was also presented with the conclusion that the mean delay
is sensitive to the stochastic properties of the arrival distribution.
Dion et al. [9] present a summary of delay models for signalized
intersections and include deterministic queuing models, a shock wave delay
model, steady-state stochastic delay models, and time-dependent stochastic
delay models for both under-saturated and over-saturated conditions,
microscopic simulation delay models. The ITEGRATIONTM simulation package
was used as a benchmark for other models with the conclusion that all
compared delay models produce similar results for signalized intersections when
traffic intensity is low. But under heavy traffic, noticeable differences occur.
Kakooza et al. [11] use a simple mathematical model (steady state m/m/s
queuing model) to analyze different types of road intersections in terms of their
performance and in relation to managing traffic congestion and establishing
congestion for stabilizing road intersections after sufficiently longer periods of
time (steady-state). The authors analyzed un-signalized and signalized
intersections, and roundabouts. They obtained expressions for the steady state
expected number and waiting time of vehicles stopping at a road intersection
interrupted by delays. For a single lane system (m/m/1), Kakooza et al. [11]
give an expression for the expected number of vehicles in the system as:

E X (3)

Where, λ is the average number of vehicles arriving at an intersection per

unit time; r is the rate of disappearance or clearance of the delays; f is the rate
of occurrence of delays; and µ0 denotes the service rate with no delays. For
stability (avoiding an ever-increasing back-log of vehicles), they assert that the
traffic intensity (ρ λ μ , for a single lane) must be less than the proportion of
delay time (τ ). The waiting time was given as:

W X (4)

They conclude that “since congestion is as a result of heavy traffic, the best
option in managing traffic congestion at an intersection would be to replace un-
signalized and roundabout intersections with signalized intersections in case
such intersections have heavy approaching traffic’’.
Their method and results are similar to those of Baykal-Gursoy et al. [5]
using probability generating functions. Excess demand for road space, irregular
 Traffic flow model at fixed control signals with discrete service time distribution 23

occurrences such as traffic accidents, vehicle disablements, spilled loads and

hazardous materials were identified by Baykal-Gursoy et al. [5] as some causes
of road flow reduction.
Baykal-Gursoy and Xiao [4] consider a steady-state m/m/∞ queuing
system subjected to random interruptions of exponentially distributed durations.
Total system breakdown and partial failure were investigated, and in both cases
present the expected number of vehicles in the system. Under the impact of the
interruption, all servers work at lower efficiency until the interruption is cleared.
Varying the parameters with respect to the expected number of vehicles in the
system (as given in [5]), the impact of each parameter of E(X) was presented.
The steady-state performance measure (expected number of vehicles in the
system) was presented for m/m/2 and m/m/3 in [3] where they stated that
“The analysis of the M/MSP/C queue with n server states clearly indicates that
explicit solutions for the general case would be difficult to obtain’’.
Van Zuylen and Viti [18] propose a method of solving the calculation of
queues and delays at a signalized intersection using a Markov chain model to
derive the probability distribution of queue length within a cycle time and using
any initial queue length distribution. Based on the dynamics of the expectation
value for queue length, the authors derive a formula for the delay in fixed time
traffic control; provide an exact probabilistic formulation of the queuing process
within a cycle, which enables justification of the dynamic and stochastic
character of overflow queues, especially at signals that operate near capacity.
The challenge, however, is in the assumption of a constant, deterministic
departure rate, while no specific distribution is assumed for arrivals.
Viti and Van Zuylen [22] propose a probabilistic model for queues at a
fixed and actuated controlled signalized intersection. They showed that a
probabilistic modeling approach can help to explain different traffic conditions,
different signal types, etc. by simply assuming a probability distribution for the
number of arrivals and departures within a cycle. However, these models do not
provide insight into the way queues are experienced by drivers at signalized
intersections (see also [22]). Road traffic conditions are not static; this has been
observed by many authors including Cherrett et al. [6]. It is therefore desirable
to develop models that incorporate realistic assumptions.
Lartey [12] presents a mathematical modeling and prediction of road
congestion on an urban road in Ghanaian using queuing theory based on a
stochastic process and initial value problem framework. The approach describes
performance measure parameters, thus predicting the increase in queue level at
a signalized intersection and subsequently providing an insight into road
vehicular congestion and how the occurrence of such congestion can be
managed. The author links time evolution phenomena to vehicle queues at a
signalized intersection to constitute an observed stochastic processes. The work
presents an analysis of vehicular traffic congestion at a signalized intersection
24 Lucky I. Igbinosun and Sunday E. Omosigho

with the hope of gaining insight into certain performance measures. Lartey [12]
asserts that the distribution of the busy period is the length (or duration) of
time during which the server remains busy. The busy period is the interval from
the moment of the arrival of a unit vehicle at an empty system to the moment
that the channel becomes free for the first time. This, therefore, constitutes a
random variable.
In [1], a discrete event simulation model was developed, verified and
validated. The model was tested for different scenarios. The objective by
Aljaafreh et al [1] was to determine the optimized timing parameters for traffic
signal based through simulation. The author argues that “designing a real-time
proactive adaptive control model for traffic will enhance the performance of
traffic lights”. In this paper, however, we seek to show the behavior of a
signalized road traffic intersection using a simple discrete model. The model will
be tested for both cases of road traffic intensities ( 1 and 1).
Vasic [20] makes certain considerations in her Discrete Simulation Model
for Heterogeneous Traffic Including Bicycles on Urban Road Networks. The
heterogeneity of vehicle type was provided by allowing different cell sizes in the
model, based on cells of different sizes and specific vehicle type parameters, such
as maximal velocity.
Tiriolo et al. [15] present a traffic flow model, based on the cell
transmission concept, with the aim of recording urban traffic dynamics taking
into account complex flow interactions among lane groups at upstream of
signalized intersections. The model is designed to simulate, at macroscopic level,
more realistically the dynamic interaction of queues among neighboring lanes
and intersections for large scale urban networks. The traditional intersection
traffic model is extended to take into account some real aspects of traffic
conditions, such as the proportion of turning and lane width with respect to
different movements.
Asenime and Mobereola [2] evaluated traffic behavior at different peak
periods at the Maryland Interchange in Metropolitan Lagos. The authors
categorized predictable behavior into three periods namely: morning, inter-peak
and evening peak periods. Asenime and Mobereola [2] reported that the signal
level of traffic service controlled traffic flow effectively at the intersections,
however, they agreed that land use factors had a negative impact on traffic flow.
 Traffic flow model at fixed control signals with discrete service time distribution 25

4. Model development

4.1. Notation

We will list the parameters used in this paper as follows:

Let Pij (t ) be the probability of transition from state i to state j during a time
interval of length t.
AG (k ) , the probability of k arrivals during the green phase,
PG (i ) , the probability of i cars in a queue at the beginning of the green phase.
s k , k  1(1)m , the number of cars that can depart during the green phase.
Pk , the probability that sk cars leave the queue during the green phase.
Qmax , the maximum number of cars that can queue at a signalized intersection.
, the probability that there are cars in the queue at the end of the green
phase.
, the arrival rate for the Poisson arrival process.
PR (i ) , the probability of i cars in the queue at the beginning of the red phase.
AR(k ) , the probability of k arrivals during the red phase.
PQR ( j ) , the probability of j cars in the queue at the end of the red phase.
 , traffic intensity (road utilization factor)

4.2. Model assumptions

The arrival manner is considered Markovian and independently distributed with

respect to the Poisson arrival rate ( ). Where there are multiple lanes regulated
by the same traffic light, we assume that all the lanes are treated as one, hence
we have a single server case and no overtaking is allowed. We also assume that
during the green phase, s k (k  1,2,3,...m) cars can be served, but no queue is
allowed ahead of the phase. The initial queue size may or may not be zero at
the beginning of the green phase. A maximum number of cars ( Q max ) is allowed
at any given green phase without blocking other junctions. We further assume
that the light cycle is between red and green, the amber phase is considered to
be either part of the red or green phase. The cars leaving the green phase is not
constant, but that the green phase (green light duration) is constant and that
the traffic light is 100% effective.
26 Lucky I. Igbinosun and Sunday E. Omosigho

4.3. The model

Given that the number of cars leaving the queue during the green phase is no
longer a fixed value, it is a discrete random variable. It is given the value sk
with a probability of Pk ( k  1,2,3,...m) . The goal is to determine the
probability of j cars in the queue at the end of the green phase. To do so, the
following conditions apply.
At the beginning of the green phase, we assume i number of cars waiting for
service; i=0, 1, 2, 3,…. When i=0, no car is queuing at the beginning of the
green phase. We can have j  1 cars in the queue at the end of the green phase
if:
 sk cars depart during the green phase.
 i cars in the queue at the beginning of the green phase.
 a cars arrive during the green phase.
For j cars at the end of the green phase, we must have:

j  i  a  sk , (6)
 a  j  sk  i , (7)
Hence the probability of having j cars at the end of the green phase can be
modeled as:

m j  sk
PG( j )    PG (i ) AG ( j  s k  i) Pk , j  1,2,3,..., Qmax (8)
k 1 i  0

If k=1, equation (1) reduces to:

j  s1
PG ( j )  P
i 0
G (i ) AG ( j  s1  i ) P1
js
  PG (i ) AG ( j  s  i ) . (9)
i 0

Where s1  s (s is const.), P1  1 . This equation is consistent with that

given in [13].
Meanwhile during the red phase, the probability of having j cars in the
queue at the end of the phase is given by:
 j
PQR( j )  
 PR(i ) AR( j  i ), j  i, i  1,...Qmax
(10)
i 0
0
 otherwise
Where PQR ( j ) is the probability of j cars at the end of the red phase (see
[13]).
 Traffic flow model at fixed control signals with discrete service time distribution 27

The model proposed in this paper generates time dependent probabilities of

having a j number of vehicles in the queue at the end of the discrete time
periods (also known as regeneration points. See [7, 13]). Vehicles form a queue
at the beginning of the red phase while waiting for service, and as the light
turns green, cars leave the queue. Even though the cycle period is fixed, the rate
of cars leaving the queue at different periods is not constant.

5. Solution

We used MATLAB 7.5 software to generate time dependent probabilities of

having a numbers of cars in the queue at the end of the discrete time periods.
For example, if the number of cars allowed to leave the system when the light
turns green assumes some set of numbers, the initial number of cars in the
queue is 10. Figure 1 shows that the queue gradually disappears.

12

10

8
Expected queue size

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
time step

Figure 1: The expected queue length when the number of cars allowed to go during the
green light is not constant.   1 , 50

Observe that when the traffic intensity is low (less than one), the queue
formed during the red phase is cleared during the green phase as shown in the
saw-tooth-like graph in Figure 1. This result agrees with Omosigho [13] in terms
of the shape, but there are differences in the expected number of vehicles in the
queue. Our focus is on the time dependent behavior of the system for a short
28 Lucky I. Igbinosun and Sunday E. Omosigho

period of the day. For example, two to three hours is considered a short period
during the day. We examine a period of free flow (when the road traffic
intensity is less than one, i.e.   1 ), and a rush-hour or busy period (   1 ).
At both periods, we show that there is a relationship between the traffic
intensity  and .
When   1 , we observe that increasing the value of did not affect the
result. This is so because for both phases of the traffic light, the number of cars
is always served (see Figures 1 and 2). Figure 2 shows the various graphs
indicating the expected number of cars in the queue for various values of .
Notice that the queues always reach zero.

12
lamda=0.9
lamda=0.5
10 lamda=0.1

8
Expected queue size

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
green phase

Figure 2: Expected number of vehicles in the queue for various values of .

10, 50, 100, 1000
 Traffic flow model at fixed control signals with discrete service time distribution 29

Queue size ( 0.1) Queue size ( 0.5) Queue size ( 0.9)

10.00 10.00 10.00
10.10 10.50 10.90
3.47 4.06 4.77
2.87 3.73 4.70
0.38 0.75 1.34
0.28 0.68 1.40
0.00 0.78 0.28
Table 1: Expected queue size at the turn of green phase

Table 1 shows the expected number of vehicles in the queue at the end of
the green phase when the traffic intensity is less than one. Observe that the
queue gradually vanishes.
When   1 , the values of and the number of vehicles in motion during
the green phase becomes important. This is true because the expected number
of cars in the queue will continue to grow in time if the number of vehicles
permitted to head off at the onset of the green phase is small. Figure 3
demonstrates the fact that congestion results at the traffic junction. In practice,
this is a problem. One way of solving this is to adjust the green phase duration
to accommodate the passage of more vehicles.

28

26

24

22

20
E(Q)

18

16

14

12

10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
time

Figure 3: Expected queue size when the traffic intensity is greater than one,
30 Lucky I. Igbinosun and Sunday E. Omosigho

1,2 2, 100.

15

s=(1,2)
s=(5,6)

10
E(Q)

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
time

Figure 4: Expected queue size when the traffic intensity is greater than one,
2, 100, but with increased number of cars permitted to go during the
green phase.

Figure 4 shows that increasing the number of cars permitted to go during

the green phase reduces congestion (increase of the queue size). It takes longer
green circle periods for the queue to clear when a very limited number of cars
are permitted to go during the green phase.

6. Conclusion

A discrete time model of traffic flow at signalized intersections has been

presented in this paper, where the proposed model considers the case when the
number of cars departing the queue at the turn of the green light is not constant
and therefore assumes a probability distribution. Constant departure rates have
been presented in the literature (see [23, 13]). The results presented show that
transient measures of performance (expected queue length) at different cycle
times can be achieved. They also show that for very small value(s) of traffic
intensity, there exists a direct relationship between the departure size and the
utility function of the traffic junction. Allowing a very small number(s) of cars
 Traffic flow model at fixed control signals with discrete service time distribution 31

to depart at the turn of the green cycle phase reveals that traffic build up occurs
over longer cycle times in order to clear when compared to a greater number(s)
of departing cars. When the light turns green, and cars depart from the queue,
the study has shown that the number of cars leaving the service point may not
necessarily be constant. Observation shows, however, that the nature and type
of vehicles (for example, it takes a longer time for a truck vehicle to leave the
queue compared to a car) are a factor in determining the number of vehicles
that can leave the queue at the turn of the green phase. Motor bikes also
struggle to receive service at the start of green phase, [13]. Incorporating these
into the model assumption can be an interesting formulation in future research.
Results from the model in this paper will help road traffic engineers in building
of road traffic lights to function at various green phase times in order to indicate
the location and density of cars on a particular road.

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