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0580 Probability Lesson4 Conditionalprobability v1

1) The document discusses conditional probability and how it allows us to recalculate probabilities based on additional information provided in a question. 2) It provides an example of calculating the probability of rolling an even number on a six-sided die depending on if the number rolled is prime or not. 3) Conditional probability is useful for games like guessing if the next card drawn will be higher or lower, as it can incorporate information about previous draws.

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theturfkitchen
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8 views

0580 Probability Lesson4 Conditionalprobability v1

1) The document discusses conditional probability and how it allows us to recalculate probabilities based on additional information provided in a question. 2) It provides an example of calculating the probability of rolling an even number on a six-sided die depending on if the number rolled is prime or not. 3) Conditional probability is useful for games like guessing if the next card drawn will be higher or lower, as it can incorporate information about previous draws.

Uploaded by

theturfkitchen
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Try this!

Alessia and Alessio are a married couple living in Italy.


1
The probability that they have a child of either gender is fixed at .
2
They have two children, one of the children is a boy.
What is the probability that the other child is also a boy?

1
The Answer is not !
2
Well it would be a half if we were not told in the question that

“one of the children is a boy”


Conditional probability

Conditional probability is all about recalculating the odds based on


some extra information that you have been given in the question.

It is easy to miss what you do truly know.


Conditional probability

Consider these two questions separately and think about the


differences between them.
One is a conditional probability question and one is not.

Question 1 Question 2
I roll a fair six sided die, what is I roll a fair six sided die, what is the
the probability that I roll an probability that I roll an even number
even number? if the number I get is prime?

3 1 1
= 3
6 2
The extra information lets us cut down the number
of items in the possibility space to three, so we
calculate the probability based on three items
Try this!

In a class of 25, 12 students have blonde hair and 8 students have


glasses. 2 students with glasses also have blonde hair.
E a) Draw a Venn diagram for this
7 information.
If I select a student at random, what is
the probability that:
10
2 6 b) They have blonde hair but do not
wear glasses? 10
25
c) Have neither blonde hair or glasses?
Blonde Glasses
7
25
Try this!

E
7 If I select a student with glasses what
is the probability that they have
blonde hair?
10 The student has to be one of these 8, 2
2 6 of which have blond hair. So
2 1
=
8 4
Blonde Glasses
The higher or lower game

In the game you have 6 cards.


1. Each card has a different integer on it from 1 to 6.
2. The first card is revealed – you need to turn over all six cards by correctly
‘guessing’ if the next card will be higher or lower than the current card.
3. If you manage to turn over all 6 cards correctly you win the game.

6 3 2 1 5 4
How do we use conditional probability to assist us in playing this game?
Try this!

In a class of 30 students, 10 study biology, 17 study history and 5 study


both history and biology.
E
8 a) Draw a Venn diagram for this
information.
5 5 12 b) If I select a history student at
random, what is the probability that
they also study biology?
5
Biology History 17
Try this!

30 students are asked whether they do each of three activities: Archery


(A), Badminton (B), Chess (C). The results are shown in the Venn
diagram. a) How many did only badminton? 8
E b) What is the probability that a student
6 chosen at random does chess? 12 2
=
30 5
A 8 7 5 c) What is the probability that a randomly
chosen student does both chess and
badminton? 7
4 30
B C d) I pick a chess playing student, what is the
probability that they also play badminton?
7
12

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