GLOBAL ISSUES

The future of Arctic shipping

Malte Humpert, founder and executive director and Andreas Raspotnik, analyst, both at The Arctic Institute, Washington, DC, USA

Arctic sea ice is melting rapidly, and within the next decade the sea ice will melt completely. The latest findings suggest that Arctic
effects of global warming may transform the Polar region from an sea ice may have entered into a new state of low ice cover The
inaccessible frozen desert into a seasonally navigable ocean. The article: A recent article by Valerie N. Livina and Timothy M. Lenton
summer of 2011 saw a record 33 ships, carrying 850,000 tons of on the bifurcation of Arctic sea-ice cover describes it as "distinct
cargo navigate the Northern Sea Route (NSR) off Russia’s from the normal state of seasonal sea ice variation." Arctic sea-ice
northern coast. This year’s shipping season may see up to 1.5 million may have crossed a tipping point which could soon make ice-free
tons of cargo, as Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute predicts the summers an annual feature across most of the Arctic Ocean.
NSR to be ice-free and passable for ships by early summer.
The North West Passage (NWP), first ice-free in 2007, and the Longer ice-free periods
Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) may also open up to shipping traffic A new study by the National Aeronautics and Space
over the coming decades. An in-depth assessment of the viability Administration (NASA) suggests that multi-year ice, which is the
of shipping along the TSR will be published in the upcoming oldest and thickest Arctic sea ice and the principal obstacle to
Arctic Yearbook 2012, which will be available from the Northern shipping in the Arctic Ocean, is disappearing at a faster rate than
Research Forum’s website from October 2012. The development the younger and thinner ice. The ice-free period along the Arctic’s
of Arctic offshore hydrocarbon resources and related economic main shipping routes is expected to increase from around 30 days
activities will also improve the integration of the Arctic economy in 2010 to more than 120 days by the middle of the century.
in global trade patterns. Multi-year ice and the limited seasonal Furthermore, the distribution of the remaining summer ice will
window for trans-Arctic voyages however, will for the foreseeable not be uniform across the Arctic Ocean. Studies suggest that sea
future remain formidable obstacles to the development of Arctic ice will collect and persist longest along the northern flanks of
shipping and its economic viability. Trans-Arctic shipping routes the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland while the central and
will thus not serve as a substitute for existing shipping lanes, but eastern part of the Arctic will see the most significant decline
will instead provide new and additional capacity for a growing of ice, further extending the shipping season along the NSR. In
transportation volume. 2011 the navigational season along the NSR lasted for 141 days,
from early July until mid-November (see figure 1).

Significant obstacles remain

Nonetheless, significant obstacles to shipping remain such as icing
from sea spray, wind chill, remoteness as well as their implications for
rescue and emergency operations, and the lack of reliable weather
forecasts. During the winter and spring months ice conditions along
Arctic shipping routes will remain heavy, and the amount of floating
sea ice and number of icebergs - a hazard to the safety of marine
transport, may increase during the early melt season as more ice floes
break apart and drift across the Arctic Ocean.

Shorter sailing distances

Routing shipping traffic through the Arctic allows for shorter
sailing distances resulting in shorter trips. Shipping operators can
achieve cost savings through a reduction of number of days at sea,
energy efficiency improvements due to slower sailing speeds, or a
combination of both.
Distance savings along Arctic shipping routes can be as high
as 40 percent compared to the traditional shipping lanes via the
Suez Canal. Shorter sailing distances allow for considerable fuel
cost savings. The reduced number of days at sea allows a ship
to make more return trips resulting in increased revenue and
Figure 1: Sea ice extent observations (1970 to 2007) and forecast (2030 to 2100) potentially greater profits.
reproduced using data from the NOAA GFDL model. Yearly extent represents an Instead of realizing time savings, operators can also adopt
average 80 percent sea ice concentration (courtesy of wunderground.com). super-slow sailing. A vessel traveling from China to Murmansk
can reduce its speed by 40 percent and still arrive in Japan at
the same time as a ship sailing at full speed traveling through the
A navigable Arctic Ocean? Suez Canal. Super-slow sailing can also double a vessel’s energy
Summer ice extent has declined by 40 percent since satellite efficiency performance, resulting in a significant reduction of
observation began in 1979, and over the same period sea ice has greenhouse-gas emissions. If a future emissions control framework
thinned considerably, experiencing a decline in volume of 70 was to include global maritime traffic, this reduction of emissions
percent. Studies differ widely in their predictions of when summer could thus also result in significant cost savings.

10 P O RT T E C H N O L O G Y I N T E R N AT I O N A L www.por tte c hno l ogy. org

 GLOBAL ISSUES

Information Office, 16 ports, most of them ice-covered for part

of the year, are located along the NSR. The port of Murmansk
and the port of Petropavlovsk on Russia’s far-east Kamchatka
peninsula are considered essential for the development of the
NSR. Both ports are expected to serve as terminals and hubs
of the NSR. In November 2011 Vladimir Putin announced a
major overhaul of the entire Russian transport system with
special attention to maritime traffic in the Arctic. Russia plans
to build up to 10 emergency centers focused on meteorological
and rescue services as well as border patrol along the NSR. The
capacity of Russia’s seaports is scheduled to increase 50 percent by
2015 and the country plans to invest 134 rubles (€3.4 billion) into
developing maritime traffic over the next 10 years.
The port of Kirkenes, Norway and the port of Vopnafjörður,
Iceland may serve as major future Arctic hubs. Iceland’s
strategic location at the entrance and exit to the Arctic Ocean
and Vopnafjörður’s suitability as a deep-water port with depth
up to 70m, may allow development into a transshipment
Figure 2: Arctic shipping routes (courtesy of the Arctic Portal).
hub. Future development and investment will however,
depend significantly on the country’s financial and economic
Economic feasibility of Arctic shipping situation and foreign investments. Over the past decade
Global shipping operations are dependent on three key factors: China has continuously increased its economic cooperation
predictability, punctuality, and economy-of-scale, all of which with the small island nation and China’s premier Wen Jiabao
are currently limited in Arctic shipping. Consequently, the lack recently visited Iceland to further strengthen the economic
of schedule reliability and highly variable transit times along ties between the two countries. A Chinese delegation also
the Arctic shipping routes represent major obstacles to the visited the Faroe Islands, a small group of islands under the
development of Arctic shipping. sovereignty of the Kingdom of Denmark, where domestic
The majority of cargo ships that travel the world’s oceans policy makers have also identified the island’s role in future
operate on regular schedules, known as liner service. In total Arctic shipping as a priority.
more than 6,000 ships, most of them container ships, follow
a set route calling at a number of ports to load and unload Conclusion
cargo, which consequently supplies the concerned country’s Over the past decades the Arctic has witnessed a much faster
hinterland. Profitability can only be achieved with large- than anticipated decline of sea ice and the continuation of
scale shipping based on stable and predictable (year-round) this trend will transform the Arctic Ocean into a navigable
operations. The ability to schedule journeys a long time in seaway over the coming decades. Yet due to the region’s unique
advance and to guarantee uninterrupted service is considered navigational and economic challenges Arctic shipping will,
key for container ship operators. Bulk dry and wet carriers, on for the foreseeable future, only be cost effective for a limited
the other hand, follow less predictable schedules and their routes number of operators.
depend more on changing supply and demand of less time-
sensitive items. Of the four kinds of Arctic voyages undertaken
in the Arctic Ocean - destination transport, intra-Arctic ABOUT THE AUTHORS
transport, trans-Arctic transport and cabotage - trans-Arctic Malte Humpert is the founder and executive director of The Arctic Institute. He
shipping may face the most significant hurdle to becoming part has been working on Arctic issues since 2007, focusing primarily on shipping
of the global trade patterns. along the Northern Sea Route, oil and gas developments in the Bering and
Chukchi Seas, and the impact of climate change on Arctic sea ice.
Draft and beam restrictions
Arctic shipping routes, especially the NSR, are subject to Andreas Raspotnik is an analyst at The Arctic Institute and currently a research
significant draft and beam restrictions. Ships along the NSR fellow at the University of Cologne (Marie Curie ITN EXACT). He is primarily
must pass through a number of narrow and shallow straits dealing with the European Union’s regional engagement, Arctic shipping and
in the Kara and Laptev Sea. The Yugorskiy Shar Strait at the related environmental protection, and the interaction between policymaking and
southernmost entrance from the Barents to the Kara Sea public international law.
follows a channel 21 nautical miles long and 12-30 meters
deep. Along the easter n section of the NSR, ships must ABOUT THE COMPANY
navigate either the Dmitry Laptev Strait or the Sannikov Strait The Arctic Institute
to pass through the New Siberian Islands and travel from the The Arctic Institute is an interdisciplinary and independent research platform for
Laptev to the East Siberian Seas. The eastern approach of the information and in-depth analysis about the developments in the Arctic based in
Laptev Strait has a depth of less than 10 meters, restricting Washington, DC, USA.
the draft of ships to less than 6.7 meters. In addition,
Russia’s government only permits ships with the highest ice ENQUIRIES
classification – 1A Finnish Swedish, to sail the route. Currently, The Arctic Institute
only three vessels out of more than 2,000 Panamax ships have Center for Circumpolar Security Studies
that classification. P.O. Box 32175
Washington, DC 20007,USA
Arctic shipping infrastructure Email: [email protected]
A key characteristic of Arctic shipping routes is the limited Web: www.thearcticinstitute.org
number of ports of call. According to the Arctic Logistics

P O RT T E C H N O L O G Y I N T E R N AT I O N A L 11