Modeling Infectious Disease Spread Using

Differential Equations: A Case Study on the

SIR Model
Presented by J050 Harvik Sanghavi
LADE PPT(DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION)
 Introduction
The SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model is a
mathematical framework widely used to understand
and simulate the spread of infectious diseases in a
population.
The model helps researchers and policymakers predict
the dynamics of disease transmission, assess the
impact of interventions, and make informed decisions
for public health. In this case study, we'll explore the
SIR model's application, considering hypothetical
parameters to simulate and analyze the progression of
an infectious disease within a population.
 SIR MODEL
In this proposed study, we have considered an
epidemic model which was developed by Kermack
and McKendrick in 1927 . This epidemic model is also
known as SIR (Susceptible, Infective and
Recover/Removed) epidemic model. This model have
already used successfully in several outbreak
diseases like Avian influenza, Cholera,Ebola, Plague,
Yellow fever, Meningitis, COVID 19, Influenza, Zika
The SIR model is very useful for future prediction,
end and peak of epidemic disease and other related
activity of outbreak diseases
 Applications of SIR model in real life
1. Influenza Outbreaks:
- SIR model predicts influenza spread and guides vaccination strategies.
2. COVID-19 Pandemic:
- SIR model assesses COVID-19 dynamics, informs lockdowns, and evaluates vaccine
3. Measles and Vaccination:
SIR model studies measles outbreaks, guides vaccination coverage for herd immunity.
4. Vector-Borne Diseases (e.g., Malaria):
- SIR model aids in understanding and controlling vector-borne diseases.
5. HIV/AIDS Transmission:
- SIR model assesses HIV/AIDS dynamics, informs preventive measures and treatment.
6. Tuberculosis Control:
- SIR model evaluates TB transmission, guides early detection and treatment.
7. Antibiotic Resistance:
- SIR model studies antibiotic resistance dynamics in bacterial infections.
8. Zika Virus Outbreak:
- SIR model analyzes Zika virus spread, estimates risk factors.
 Case Study on COVID-19 using SIR model (differential eq)
The case study aims to provide insights into the potential outcomes of the COVID-19 outbreak
in India by utilizing the SIR model.
The focus is on understanding the impact of parameters like infection and recovery rates on the
spread and containment of the virus.

In this proposed study, we have total COVID-2020 tested population is divided into
three parts:

1. S(t)=The number of susceptible population at time t

2. I(t)=The number of infectives population at time t
3. R(t)= The number of recovered population at time t
 Methodology of SIR Model
SIR model equations
Following three differential equations are used for experimental discussion for COVID-2019 of India
s is the fraction of the population that is susceptible to the disease.
S’(t)=-rSl.... [1]
l is the fraction of the population that is infectious.
I’(t)=rSl-al.... [2]
r is the fraction of the population that has recovered.
R’(t)=al.... [3]

ds/dt=-rSl Can be written in this form

dl/dt=rSl-al These three differential equations of SIR model is known as Kermack-
dr/dt=al McKendrick

Population Dynamics
Total population (N) is given by N=s+l+r.
Initial values ((s(0),l(0),r(0)) are set for susceptible, infectious, and recovered
Reproductive Number (R0)
Threshold number B=r/a​is introduced.
Reproductive number R0​=r/a​is defined.
Case-1: If R0​<1, the outbreak is expected to die out.
Case-2: If R0​>1, the outbreak persists in epidemic form.

Conditions for Solutions:

Conditions are mentioned for the solution of the SIR model

equations. If certain conditions are met:
If ds/dt is less than zero for all t
If dr/dt is greater than zero as long as the initial
population is greater than a specific ratio

Key Assumptions

Dynamics of COVID-19 depend on the threshold and reproductive numbers.

The behavior of the outbreak is influenced by the initial susceptible population.
 Steps of applying SIR model to a specific disease
1. Define Model:
- Formulate SIR model equations.
2. Specify Parameters:
- Identify (r), \(a), and initial conditions.
3. Understand Disease:
- Gather disease characteristics.
4. Total Population Constraint:
- Acknowledge (N = s + l + r).
5. Formulate Differential Equations:
- Write ODEs for (s), (l), and (r).
6. Numerical Solution:
- Choose and implement a numerical method.
7.Initial Conditions:
- Set initial values.
8. Run Simulations:
- Simulate disease dynamics.
9. Analyze Results:
- Examine peak, duration, and intervention impact.
10. Validation with Data:
- Compare model predictions with real data. Adjust as needed.
 Limitations
1. Everyone's the Same:
- Assumes everyone in the population is similar, ignoring age or location differences.
2. Stuck with Constants:
- Pretends that the rate at which a disease spreads and people recover stays the same,
even when things change.
3. Always Mixing at the Same Rate:
- Thinks people mix and interact at a steady rate, not considering changes in behavior or
restrictions.
4. Simple but Not Perfect:
- Breaks the population into just three groups and might miss some important details about
how infections happen.
5. No Room for Local Differences:
- Doesn't care about how a disease might spread differently in different places, treating
everywhere the same.
 Future aspects
1. Adding More Details:
- Future models could be more like real life by considering things like how old people are and where
they live.
2. Changing as Things Change:
- Models should be flexible, understanding that how a disease spreads might shift over time.
3. Thinking About Networks:
- Consider that people have different connections; it's not always the same group interacting with each
other.
4. Seeing Individuals, Not Just Groups:
- Make models more personal, thinking about how each person behaves and interacts with others.
 Conclusion

In summary, the SIR model, powered by differential equations,

has been instrumental in simplifying the complex dynamics of
infectious diseases. It helps predict and understand how diseases
spread, guides intervention strategies, and contributes significantly
to the field of epidemiology. The model's simplicity and
effectiveness make it a valuable tool for public health planning and
response.
 Refrences
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95494-6

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.15.20103077v1.full

https://maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-
differential-equation-model

https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/114390/1/MPRA_paper_114390.pdf

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211379722000328
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