Questions

Q1.

The Venn diagram shows three events, A, B and C, and their associated probabilities.

Events B and C are mutually exclusive.

Events A and C are independent.

Showing your working, find the value of x, the value of y and the value of z.

(Total for question = 5 marks)

Q2.

A factory buys 10% of its components from supplier A, 30% from supplier B and the rest from supplier C.
It is known that 6% of the components it buys are faulty.

Of the components bought from supplier A, 9% are faulty and of the components bought from supplier B,
3% are faulty.

(a) Find the percentage of components bought from supplier C that are faulty.
(3)
A component is selected at random.

(b) Explain why the event "the component was bought from supplier B " is not statistically independent
from the event "the component is faulty".
(1)

(Total for question = 4 marks)

Q3.

The Venn diagram shows the probabilities for students at a college taking part in various sports.
A represents the event that a student takes part in Athletics.
T represents the event that a student takes part in Tennis.
C represents the event that a student takes part in Cricket.
p and q are probabilities.

The probability that a student selected at random takes part in Athletics or Tennis is 0.75

(a) Find the value of p.

(1)
(b) State, giving a reason, whether or not the events A and T are statistically independent. Show your
working clearly.
(3)
(c) Find the probability that a student selected at random does not take part in Athletics or Cricket.
(1)

(Total for question = 5 marks)

Q4.

The Venn diagram shows three events A, B and C, where p, q, r, s and t are probabilities.

P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.6 and P(C) = 0.25 and the events B and C are independent.

(a) Find the value of p and the value of q.

(2)
(b) Find the value of r.
(2)
(c) Hence write down the value of s and the value of t.
(2)
(d) State, giving a reason, whether or not the events A and B are independent.
(2)

(Total for question = 8 marks)

Q5.

The Venn diagram shows the probabilities of customer bookings at Harry's hotel.
R is the event that a customer books a room
B is the event that a customer books breakfast
D is the event that a customer books dinner
u and t are probabilities.

(a) Write down the probability that a customer books breakfast but does not book a room.
(1)
Given that the events B and D are independent

(b) find the value of t

(4)
(c) hence find the value of u
(2)

(Total for question = 7 marks)

Q6.

In a factory, three machines, J, K and L, are used to make biscuits.

Machine J makes 25% of the biscuits.

Machine K makes 45% of the biscuits.

The rest of the biscuits are made by machine L.

It is known that 2% of the biscuits made by machine J are broken, 3% of the biscuits made by machine K
are broken and 5% of the biscuits made by machine L are broken.

(a) Draw a tree diagram to illustrate all the possible outcomes and associated probabilities.
(2)
A biscuit is selected at random.

(b) Calculate the probability that the biscuit is made by machine J and is not broken.
(2)
(c) Calculate the probability that the biscuit is broken.
(2)

(Total 6 marks)
Q7.

A college has 80 students in Year 12.

20 students study Biology

28 students study Chemistry
30 students study Physics
7 students study both Biology and Chemistry
11 students study both Chemistry and Physics
5 students study both Physics and Biology
3 students study all 3 of these subjects

(a) Draw a Venn diagram to represent this information.

(5)
A Year 12 student at the college is selected at random.

(b) Find the probability that the student studies Chemistry but not Biology or Physics.
(1)
(c) Find the probability that the student studies Chemistry or Physics or both.
(2)

(Total for question = 8 marks)

Q8.

A manufacturer carried out a survey of the defects in their soft toys. It is found that the probability of a toy
having poor stitching is 0.03 and that a toy with poor stitching has a probability of 0.7 of splitting open. A
toy without poor stitching has a probability of 0.02 of splitting open.

(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information.

(3)
(b) Find the probability that a randomly chosen soft toy has exactly one of the two defects, poor stitching
or splitting open.
(3)
The manufacturer also finds that soft toys can become faded with probability 0.05 and that this defect is
independent of poor stitching or splitting open. A soft toy is chosen at random.

(c) Find the probability that the soft toy has none of these 3 defects.
(2)
(d) Find the probability that the soft toy has exactly one of these 3 defects.
(4)
(Total 12 marks)
Examiner's Report
Q1.

Only around 10% of candidates achieved full marks on this question, but there were many strong
attempts made. Most scored the first mark for identifying that x = 0. The most common error across the
question was to ignore the intersections and calculate P(A) × P(C) as 0.1 × 0.39. The majority of
candidates scored the final method mark for a correct equation in y and z, demonstrating knowledge of
probabilities summing to 1. Surprisingly, of candidates who did set up all of the equations required, many
were unable to manipulate the algebra to solve them. Those who confused independent and mutually
exclusive events tended to make no progress.

Q2.

This question was supposed to suggest to students that a tree diagram would provide a suitable method
for solving the problem and many did use such an approach; formulating an equation for p, the probability
of a faulty component coming from factory C, and solving it. Others were obviously thinking along the right
lines and wrote down a calculation such as 6 – (0.9 + 0.9) = 4.2% which was the probability of a randomly
chosen component coming from C and being faulty, though they rarely told us that. A correct answer
could easily be derived from here.

Despite the large number of students scoring zero here, about 1/3 managed to answer part (a)
successfully. Part (b) required an explanation which means both words and a simple calculation were
required. Some found P(B) × P(F) = 0.018 and others gave the probability of the component coming from
B and being faulty as 0.009 but both of these calculations and a concluding statement were needed to
secure the mark.

Q3.
No Examiner's Report available for this question

Q4.

Although over a quarter of the students scored full marks, clearly reasoned and fully correct answers to
this question were relatively rare. Most started correctly in part (a) and the correct values for p and q were
often seen. Frequently there followed in parts (b) and (c) a string of equations linking r, s and t often
accompanied by failed attempts to solve them correctly. The most common error though was to assume
that A and B were independent which quickly gave an incorrect value for s and an easy route to find
wrong answers for r and t. This also meant that any argument they used in (d) was flawed and marks
were lost here too.

In part (d) those who had a correct (or nearly correct) Venn diagram were familiar with the two
approaches to determining independence but by far the most popular was to compare P(A)×P(B) =
0.5×0.6 = 0.3 with P(A∩B) = s = 0.28 and conclude that A and B were not independent.

Q5.

Again it was disappointing to see some students working with negative probabilities but most could at
least make a start here. Some floundered over the idea of B being a subset of R whilst also intersecting D
and the final part proved quite challenging, enabling the more able students to shine.
Part (a) was usually answered correctly with 0.33 or 0.6 being the common incorrect answers. Many were
successful in part (b) too but a common error arose from poor use of brackets: students arrived at
0.6(0.42 + t) = 0.27 but then forgot to multiply the "t" by 0.6. Part (c) usually followed as most realised that
u + t = 0.25.

Q6.

The tree diagram was answered very well with only occasional errors on the branches for broken or not
broken biscuits e.g P(B | J) = 2⁄25 rather than 2⁄100.

Question (b) and question (c) were usually correct although there were a number of transcription errors
such as 0.335 instead of 0.0335 in question (c).

Q7.

Part (a) was usually answered very well but a significant number did not appreciate that those who
studied all 3 subjects were also included in the numbers studying a pair of subjects. Most could score the
mark in part (b), even if their Venn diagram was incorrect, but some muddled their denominators and
gave an answer of rather than . In part (c) most wrote down a fraction based on their Venn diagram:
this was fine if their diagram and answer were correct but otherwise a correct expression was required
before the examiners could award any marks.

Q8.

This question was answered well by most candidates. There were a number of accuracy errors with the
wrong positioning of the decimal point with 0.03×0.3 giving rise to 0.9, 0.09 or even 0.0009 and 0.047...
was sometimes copied from a calculator as 0.47...
Part (a) proved a straightforward start to the question and most candidates completed a correct tree
diagram.

Most completed part (b) correctly too but some found P(a split) and others found P(at least one of the
defects) but many correct answers were seen here.

In part (c) the majority were able to multiply together the 3 required probabilities but a small minority just
gave the answer as 0.97×0.98.

Numerous candidates found the correct products of three probabilities in part (d) but some just added
0.05 to their answer to part (b). Most candidates though found this question a very rewarding end to the
paper.
Mark Scheme
Q1.
Q2.
Q3.
Q4.
Q5.
Q6.
Q7.
Q8.