What Works
What Works
for
Workers?
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0
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Stephanie Luce,
Jennifer Luff,
Joseph A. McCartin,
and Ruth Milkman,
Editors
The Russell Sage Foundation, one of the oldest of America’s general purpose foundations,
was established in 1907 by Mrs. Margaret Olivia Sage for “the improvement of social and
living conditions in the United States.” The Foundation seeks to fulfill this mandate by fos-
tering the development and dissemination of knowledge about the country’s political, social,
and economic problems. While the Foundation endeavors to assure the accuracy and objec-
tivity of each book it publishes, the conclusions and interpretations in Russell Sage Founda-
tion publications are those of the authors and not of the Foundation, its Trustees, or its staff.
Publication by Russell Sage, therefore, does not imply Foundation endorsement.
BOARD OF TRUSTEES
Robert E. Denham, Esq.
What works for workers? : public policies and innovative strategies for low-wage workers /
Stephanie Luce, Jennifer Luff, Joseph A. McCartin, Ruth Milkman, editors.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-87154-571-8 (alk. paper)
1. Unskilled labor—United States. 2. Working poor—United States. 3. Minimum wage—
United States. 4. Labor policy—United States. I. Luce, Stephanie.
HD8072.5.W465 2013
331.12’0424—dc23
2013030555
Copyright © 2014 by Russell Sage Foundation. All rights reserved. Printed in the United
States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval sys-
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Contributors xi
Introduction 1
Stephanie Luce, Jennifer Luff,
Joseph A. McCartin, and Ruth Milkman
Index 329
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xi
John Schmitt is senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy
Research in Washington, D.C.
David Weil is professor of markets, public policy and law and Everett
W. Lord Distinguished Faculty Scholar at Boston University School of
Management, as well as codirector of the Transparency Policy Project at
Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.
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The other America, the America of poverty, is hidden today in a way that it never
was before. Its millions are socially invisible to the rest of us.
—Michael Harrington, 1962
Half a century ago, in his best-selling book The Other America, Michael
Harrington awakened the nation to the persistence of grinding pov-
erty alongside its unprecedented postwar affluence. Harrington revealed
an “economic underworld” in urban tenements and remote Appalachian
towns, populated largely by the aged, the unemployed, and racial minori-
ties. Chronic unemployment, inadequate housing, racial discrimination,
a thin social safety net, and a culture of hopelessness were characteris-
tic features of this “other America.” Harrington’s book helped persuade the
federal government to launch the War on Poverty by creating new federal
programs like Medicaid, Medicare, and Head Start, institutionalizing what
was then a pilot food stamp program, and launching a massive expansion of
housing assistance and job training programs.
In Harrington’s America, poverty was strongly associated with un-
employment, apart from workers in occupations excluded from fed-
eral minimum wage laws and collective bargaining protections, such as
farmworkers and domestic workers, or in a few other industries with
dirty and dangerous poorly paid jobs, such as mining. African Ameri-
can workers were highly concentrated in these fields. But in 1962, when
The Other America appeared, unemployment accounted for a far more
significant share of poverty. Harrington (1962/1993, 37) highlighted the
plight of “old and obsolete workers who are over forty, the married and
family men at the wrong place in the economy, the ones with no skill or
the wrong skill,” who had been shut out of the labor market entirely. The
primary problem for them was not low pay or bad working conditions, -1
but not working at all. 0
+1
1
place for women workers in the past half-century have been even more dra-
matic than for African Americans. Owing in part to the growth of female
labor force participation and the reduction in job segregation by gender that
began in the 1970s, the overall gender gap in pay has been reduced over
the past fifty years, although, at 7.6 percent, a slightly greater proportion
of female than male workers were in the ranks of the working poor in 2010
(U.S. Department of Labor 2012a). Yet pay disparities between female col-
lege graduates and their less-educated counterparts have grown as well,
even as female college graduation rates have overtaken those of males. And
within many dual-earner households, the economic gains of female work-
ers over the past fifty years have been offset by the economic losses of male
workers (Autor 2010, 10–11).
The growth of the immigrant workforce complicates the story still fur-
ther. Harrington made little mention of foreign-born workers, apart from
a brief discussion of California farmworkers, because he was writing
during a period of sharp restriction of immigration to the United States.
That changed in 1965 when the passage of the Immigration and National-
ity Act (the Hart-Cellar Act) led to a massive increase in immigration to
the United States from Latin America, Asia, and Africa. Undocumented
immigration also surged, especially after the passage of the Immigration
Reform and Control Act (IRCA) in 1986. These changes in immigration
policy helped stimulate the growth of a vast new low-wage labor force, not
only in agriculture (where undocumented immigrants were initially con-
centrated after the end of the bracero program in 1964) but increasingly in
low-wage jobs throughout the economy. As U.S.-born workers abandoned
once-desirable jobs that had deteriorated as a result of deunionization and
other types of restructuring, many employers began hiring immigrants,
both those with legal status and the undocumented, who were even more
susceptible to minimum wage and other FLSA violations than other work-
ers. Although Latino immigrant workers often proved more willing than
many native-born workers to engage in labor protest and union orga-
nizing, the scale of such activity was limited (Milkman 2006). By 2010,
Latinos (including U.S.-born Latinos, immigrants with legal status and
the undocumented) were more likely than African Americans, whites, or
Asians to be among the working poor (U.S. Department of Labor 2012a).
At the same time, inequalities between Latinos with college degrees and
those with more limited education expanded, paralleling the situation of
African Americans.
For the U.S. population as a whole, income inequality has spiked dra-
matically since Harrington’s day. In 1968 the bottom 40 percent of U.S.
-1 households took home 15.3 percent of the nation’s total income; by 2010
0 their share had fallen to only 11.8 percent. In sharp contrast, over the same
+1
period the income share of the top 5 percent rose from 17.2 to 21.3 percent.3
The nation’s poverty rate has soared to a level higher than that in any other
OECD country (Mishel et al. 2012). The “other America” of the twenty-first
century is different in some respects from what Harrington described half
a century ago, and the modest progress that followed the reception of his
book has been sharply reversed in recent decades.
Although there is extensive documentation of the ways in which the
economic playing field has tilted to increasingly disadvantage low-wage
workers, their plight has received limited attention from elected offi-
cials. If their rhetoric is any indication, Democrats and Republicans alike
believe that the creation of “jobs, jobs, jobs” must be the top priority of
national economic policy, with little or no attention to job quality. Each
major political party touts its job-creating credentials while blaming the
other party for destroying jobs. Republicans assert that the only legitimate
way to create new jobs is via the market and regularly deride public policy
interventions, from the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010
to the minimum wage, as “job killers.”
Democrats all too often fail to challenge the logic of this approach or to
promote a theoretically coherent program of their own. As a result, their
policies are often haphazard in relation to job creation and job quality. For
example, during the Clinton administration, millions of jobs were gener-
ated in what was then labeled “the great American jobs machine”—in con-
trast to Europe. However, the new jobs were disproportionately low-wage
jobs, to a much greater extent than in an otherwise comparable period
of job growth in the 1960s (Wright and Dwyer 2003). In addition, both the
Clinton and Obama administrations have promoted free trade agreements
as a solution to job creation, despite research that shows the deleteri-
ous impact of free trade on jobs, and in particular on the non-college-
educated workers who are increasingly overrepresented among the working
poor. Economist Laurie Kletzer (2004) found that 21 percent of workers
displaced from manufacturing jobs in the 1990s were high school drop-
outs and that they were more likely than other displaced workers to be
from racial minority groups.
Instead of promoting a comprehensive jobs program, Democrats have
more often sought to gain short-term political advantages over their oppo-
nents on the jobs issue. They have directed their energies toward criticizing
the policy failures of Republicans, accusing them of aiding and abetting
the corporations and private equity firms that profit by laying off workers
and shipping jobs overseas, while portraying the Democratic Party as the
champion of the middle class. As a result, neither side has focused public
attention on the quality of the jobs created in the U.S. economy or fought for -1
a comprehensive set of policies addressing the needs of low-wage workers. 0
+1
vations to the table. The essays in this volume reflect the dialogue that
took place at the conference.
The conference participants—scholars and practitioners alike—were
all aligned with one of Harrington’s essential insights: public policy is
consequential, and a crucial resource in the fight against poverty. Each
chapter in this volume has a different angle, but they all start from that
perspective. Part I, “Low-Wage Work in Historical Perspective,” describes
the origins of public policy for low-wage workers and the recent trans-
formations that underlie current conditions. Alice O’Connor’s chapter,
“An Economy That Works for Workers,” opens the volume with an anal-
ysis that historicizes the assumptions and politics behind today’s social
policies. She embeds her analysis in the context of the broader political
economy, illuminating just how narrow contemporary debates about low-
wage work have become. O’Connor examines key developments in social
provision for low-income workers in relation to broader shifts in eco-
nomic policy and reform politics since the late 1960s, showing how New
Deal norms of economic citizenship were eroded by a radically altered
public policy atmosphere in which the assumptions of free-market indi-
vidualism increasingly predominated. Through this approach, she high-
lights the historical transformations in politics and political economy that
have undermined both the material living standards and the longer-range
social and political prospects of low-wage workers and the U.S. working
class. O’Connor argues that any efforts to advance the interests of low-
wage workers are inextricably tied to the pursuit of “fairness, freedom,
and political as well as economic democracy” and must therefore begin
not with menus of specific policy options but rather with a staking out of
the “moral high ground of American democracy.”
The next chapter, “What Can Labor Organizations Do for U.S. Workers
When Unions Can’t Do What Unions Used to Do?” by Richard Freeman,
explores in detail one of the primary causes of increased working poverty:
the decline of unions. Reframing a question that he and James Medoff (1984)
famously asked three decades ago in their classic study What Do Unions Do?
Freeman begins by acknowledging that most experts no longer believe that
unions can do much for low-wage workers at this historical juncture. How-
ever, he then goes on to contest this conventional wisdom, arguing that the
surprisingly energetic mobilization of public-sector unions against legislative
efforts to eliminate the right to bargain collectively and the emergence
of new opportunities for dissidents to use the Internet and social media
to galvanize citizens for change have created an opening for a possible
union resurgence. Nevertheless, he suggests, any such resurgence will
require unions to move beyond traditional collective bargaining and col- -1
laborate with other community actors, while using the new social media 0
+1
Gordon sketches the evolution of current policy since the passage of IRCA
in 1986, focusing on the failure of employer sanctions and later of efforts
to achieve comprehensive immigration reform. She documents the ways
in which immigrant workers have organized effectively nonetheless, with
the help of worker centers and community-based organizations as well as
unions. Comparing the U.S. experience to that of the United Kingdom and
the European Union, she argues that ensuring the free mobility of immi-
grants across borders, though a necessary policy goal, would be insufficient
by itself to address the problem facing low-wage immigrant workers. She
calls instead for innovative government enforcement of labor standards
as well as fuller collaboration among unions, community groups, worker
centers, and government agencies to transform low-wage immigrants’
theoretical rights into reality on the ground.
What about existing labor market policy interventions? In part III, the
volume turns to assessments of the efficacy of three key programs. In the
chapter entitled “Career Ladders in the Low-Wage Labor Market,” Paul
Osterman examines the role of job training and career ladders in improving
the quality of work in low-wage settings. Drawing on his own fieldwork as
well as previously published accounts, he assesses the effectiveness of train-
ing programs administered by unions, business associations, nonprofits,
and community groups. In addition, he examines the crucial and in some
respects untapped role of community colleges in helping workers move up
career ladders. Osterman argues that the available evidence demonstrates
the effectiveness of career ladder programs in reducing the extent of low-
wage employment, suggesting that this is one key tool to help workers climb
out of low-wage employment. What is lacking, he suggests, is an adequate
level of commitment to such training programs from employers, political
leaders, and policymakers.
In chapter 7, “Employment Subsidies to Firms and Workers,” Sarah
Hamersma compares the differential impact on labor markets of two
types of tax subsidies, one aimed at employers (the Work Opportunity
Tax Credit) and the other at workers (the Earned Income Tax Credit).
Both programs have low administrative costs and offer the promise
of increased employment and income for low-wage workers, but as
Hamersma points out, they operate in fundamentally different ways, pro-
ducing vastly different participation patterns and employment outcomes.
The WOTC firm subsidy operates at lower costs, but also furnishes far
fewer credits and has a minimal impact on employment; by contrast, the
more expensive EITC delivers a far greater impact. Hamersma’s findings
highlight the effectiveness of the EITC, in spite of its increasing costs, in
protecting low-wage workers. -1
In her chapter “Living Wages, Minimum Wages, and Low-Wage Work- 0
ers,” Stephanie Luce offers a review of the literature on minimum wage +1
policy, showing how economists have slowly improved their research tech-
niques and changed their assessment. Whereas the dominant view a few
decades ago was that raising minimum wages leads to job loss, more recent
research finds that this negative prediction does not hold in practice. Raising
the minimum wage can help large numbers of low-wage workers, although
the raises are mostly small and do not lift a worker above poverty. In that
context, Luce offers a candid assessment of one of the most prominent
forms of worker-oriented public policy activism to have emerged in recent
decades. Living wage ordinances have been enacted in over 125 cities and
counties around the country since Baltimore passed the first one in 1994. The
goals of living wage campaigns have included forging coalitions that build
political power, influencing public debate on wages and economic develop-
ment, laying the groundwork for new union organizing, and strengthening
unions’ bargaining power. The impact of living wage laws on directly rais-
ing the incomes of low-wage workers has been difficult to measure, how-
ever, because, as Luce points out, enforcement is often lax. Nonetheless, her
research dispels the myth that living wage laws primarily cover teenagers as
well as the myth that their enactment has a negative impact on workers at the
bottom of the labor market by encouraging employers to replace them with
more skilled workers. In documenting the ways in which living wage ordi-
nances have helped workers, Luce points out that, unlike minimum wage
laws, they cover only a tiny portion of the nation’s low-wage workforce.
Finally, part IV looks at “Social Insurance Programs and Low-Wage Work.”
Jeffrey B. Wenger’s chapter, “Improving Low-Income Workers’ Access to
Unemployment Insurance,” examines the U.S. unemployment insurance
(UI) system in the context of changes in work organization, the increased
presence of women in the workplace, and growing concern regarding care-
giving and the issues associated with sick leave and family leave. Over time,
he argues, the UI system has become less effective in meeting the needs of
workers. Fewer than half of the nation’s unemployed have applied for bene-
fits in recent years, and denied claims are on the rise. Wenger explores states’
efforts to raise earnings requirements and erect other barriers to UI eligibility
while simultaneously reducing benefits, linking those shifts to the decline in
the use of UI by low-wage workers. He calls on the federal government to
require that states maintain adequate UI reserves and raise the taxable base
of income that funds the program, and also to set limits on the mechanisms
that states use to disqualify workers from receiving benefits.
Chapter 10, “Can the Affordable Care Act Reverse Three Decades of
Declining Health Insurance Coverage for Low-Wage Workers?” looks
closely at the crucial and contentious area of health insurance. Using Cur-
-1 rent Population Survey (CPS) data, John Schmitt reviews trends in health-
0 insurance coverage rates for low-wage workers over time, highlighting the
+1
Notes
1. This assumes that an individual is working forty hours a week for fifty weeks
a year (with two weeks of unpaid leave).
2. In twelve occupations in the 2012 OES—including “combined food preparation”
and “cashiers”—the seventy-fifty percentile wage is less than $10.64 an hour.
Those earning this wage make up about 7 percent of all workers.
3. For census data on household income, see U.S. Census Bureau, “Table H-2: Share
of Aggregate Income Received by Each Fifth and Top 5 Percent of Households, All
Races, 1967 to 2010,” Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supple-
ments, available at: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/
household/2010/H02AR_2010.xls.
References
Autor, David. 2010. “The Polarization of Job Opportunities in the U.S. Labor Mar-
ket: Implications for Employment and Earnings.” Washington, D.C.: Center for
American Progress (April).
Bernhardt, Annette, Ruth Milkman, Nik Theodore, Douglas Heckathorn, Mirabai
Auer, James DeFilippis, Ana Luz Gonzalez, Victor Narro, Jason Perelshteyn, Di-
ana Polson, and Michael Spiller. 2009. Broken Laws, Unprotected Workers: Viola-
tions of Employment and Labor Laws in America’s Cities. Available at: http://www.
nelp.org/page/-/brokenlaws/BrokenLawsReport2009.pdf?nocdn=1 (accessed
September 2013).
Freeman, Richard B., and James L. Medoff. 1984. What Do Unions Do? New York:
Basic Books.
Harrington, Michael. 1993. The Other America. New York: Simon & Schuster. (Orig-
inally published in 1962.)
-1 Kalleberg, Arne. 2011. Good Jobs, Bad Jobs: The Rise of Polarized and Precarious
0 Employment Systems in the United States, 1970s to 2000s. New York: Russell
+1 Sage Foundation.
Kletzer, Laurie. 2004. “Trade-Related Job Loss and Wage Insurance: A Synthetic
Review.” Review of International Economics 12(5): 724–48.
Milkman, Ruth. 2006. L.A. Story: Immigrant Workers and the Future of the U.S. Labor
Movement. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Mishel, Lawrence, Josh Bivens, Elise Gould, and Heidi Shierholz. 2012. The State of
Working America, 12th ed. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.
Mishel, Lawrence, and Matthew Walters. 2003. “How Unions Help All Workers.”
Briefing paper no. 143. Washington, D.C.: Economic Policy Institute. Available
at: http://www.epi.org/publication/briefingpapers_bp143 (accessed September
2013).
Rosenfeld, Jake, and Meredith Kleykamp. 2012. “Organized Labor and Racial Wage
Inequality in the United States.” American Journal of Sociology 117 (5, March):
1460–1502.
Schmitt, John. 2012. “The Minimum Wage Is Too Damn Low.” Issue brief. Wash-
ington, D.C.: Center for Economic and Policy Research (March).
U.S. Department of Labor. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2012a. “A Profile of
the Working Poor, 2010.” Report 1035. Washington: U.S. Department of Labor
(March).
———. 2012b. “May 2012 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates.”
Washington: U.S. Department of Labor. Available at: http://www.bls.gov/oes/
(accessed July 2013).
———. 2012c. “Employment Projections: 2010–2020 Summary.” Washington: U.S.
Department of Labor. Available at: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.
nr0.htm (accessed September 13, 2013).
Wright, Erik Olin, and Rachel Dwyer. 2003. “The Patterns of Job Expansions in
the USA: A Comparison of the 1960s and 1990s.” Socio-Economic Review 1(3):
289–325.
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Alice O’Connor
For the past three decades, the problem of low-wage work has become
a central preoccupation among poverty analysts and advocates. While
it would be an exaggeration to say they have coalesced around a uni-
fied policy agenda, collectively they have produced an impressive body
of knowledge about the deteriorating prospects for low-wage workers in
our New Gilded Age economy (see, for example, Danziger and Gottschalk
1995; Ehrenreich 2001; Freeman 2007; Greenhouse 2008; Handler and
White 1999; Holzer and Nightingale 2007; Munger 2002). As subsequent
chapters in this volume show, they also point us to a variety of strategies
to empower low-wage workers or otherwise “make work pay” through
tax subsidies and other targeted policy interventions, unionization and
living wage campaigns, education and training programs, and employee
profit-sharing plans.
As most people involved in this work would acknowledge, however,
such strategies can only do so much in the face of the seemingly relent-
less long-range trends—rising income and wealth inequality, declining
unionization rates, the global outsourcing of once-better-paying jobs,
and now the vastly unequal fallout from the Great Recession—that keep
workers from getting a stable foothold in the economy, let alone getting
ahead. What workers really need is an economy that is not so steeply
stacked against them—one that certainly would look very different from
the deeply inequitable and otherwise undemocratic version of capitalism
that prevails in the United States today. A discussion about what works
for workers, then, must situate strategies to improve the conditions of
low-wage workers within a broader strategy of political economic and -1
social policy reform. 0
+1
19
policies, in order to “work” for low-wage workers, must first and fore-
most be embedded in an economy that produces adequate employment,
wages, and opportunities for advancement. In the context of slowed eco-
nomic growth and structural change, the failure to address those inequities
through expansive liberal programs would contribute as much as orga-
nized opposition from the right to the erosion of popular support not only
for New Deal and Great Society programs but for their ideas about shared
prosperity and the role of government in achieving it.
urban development, and Medicare and Medicaid. In these and other ways,
the policies and programs collectively known as the Great Society had
extended significantly beyond the parameters of New Deal social provi-
sion. Now, in the far more divided political environment of the late 1960s,
Tobin was joining with Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO) director
Sargent Shriver to urge Congress to finish the job, specifically by adopting
the agency’s “Ten-Year Anti-Poverty Budget,” which projected an end to
poverty by 1976. That the federal government would play a central role in
ensuring a decent standard of living for its citizens was not the issue; nor
was the idea, established decades earlier in the New Deal, that the federal
government would intervene in the economy to achieve domestic policy
goals. The issue, at least for Tobin and poverty warriors at the OEO, was
not whether but how much further to extend and otherwise revise New
Deal provisions to meet the needs of those left behind.
At the same time, it is important to recall that Tobin’s plan for ending
poverty also hinged on the original New Deal commitment to wage-
earning work as the cornerstone of its economic recovery and growth
policies as well as of the social contract between citizens and the state.
Fully employed workers would provide the mass purchasing power to
fuel economic growth, as well as the tax revenues to fund the social secu-
rity system. Wage-earning work would in turn be an entrée to the entitle-
ments of economic citizenship required of modern industrial democracy,
as enumerated by Franklin D. Roosevelt, in language deliberately evoca-
tive of the U.S. Constitution, in his “Economic Bill of Rights”: the rights to
jobs at decent wages; to health, homes, and education; and to a fair play-
ing field free of racial discrimination, economic privilege, and monopoly.
Together, these “self-evident” rights represented the New Deal’s commit-
ment to making what FDR had famously called “Freedom from Want” a
reality for every American (Roosevelt 1941, 1944; see also Donohue 2003).2
For postwar Keynesians like Tobin, delivering on this commitment meant
building on the edifice of the fair labor standards, minimum wage, and col-
lective bargaining rights established in New Deal labor legislation. More
than anything, however, it meant maintaining high economic growth and
generously defined levels of “full” employment—the two most effective
“weapons,” as CEA economists never tired of repeating, in the Great Soci-
ety’s War on Poverty (O’Connor 2001). Ending poverty, they argued, was
not only compatible with but integral to sustaining high growth, high
wages, and equitably distributed income. Tobin even called for raising
“our concept of full employment” from 4 percent unemployment to 3 per-
cent. Ending poverty, then, was about creating an economy in which the
-1 interests of the poor, and of all disadvantaged workers, could be tied to the
0 interests of everyone else.
+1
or “divided” structure of the New Deal welfare state, which made access
to health coverage, child care, fuller pensions, and other benefits that many
considered to be public goods dependent on privately negotiated employee
or union contracts—leaving millions of lower-wage workers out in the cold
(Hacker 2002; Klein 2003; Michel 2000).
But what would prove to be the most divisive and fiercely resisted set
of challenges to the inequities and exclusions of the New Deal order had to
do with the largely hidden subsidies it provided for the nation’s burgeon-
ing postwar middle class in housing policy, which throughout the postwar
decades had been the largely unrecognized battleground of white racial and
class privilege. Here, too, the challenge mounted by civil rights and housing
reform advocates had important implications for a substantial proportion
of the low-wage working class.
As a system officially dedicated to providing “a decent home and a
suitable living environment for every American family,” New Deal hous-
ing policy had all the problems of income support—and then some.3 It
was structurally bifurcated into deliberately ungenerous, locally controlled
public housing and a far more generous, if hidden, system of subsidies
for working- and middle-class homeowners. By the mid-1940s, that hid-
den infrastructure had come to include a sizable public-private mortgage
market anchored by the Federal National Mortgage Association (the New
Deal–era government agency, subsequently privatized, colloquially known
as Fannie Mae), federally insured mortgages, targeted benefits for veterans
through the GI Bill of Rights, and a wide variety of tax incentives and subsi-
dies for real estate developers and homeowners alike, including the federal
income tax deduction for mortgage interest costs. The system both relied
on and helped to institutionalize an also unacknowledged structure and
geography of racial, class, and gender exclusions, upheld by the rules and
underwriting practices that regulated access to mortgage credit, judicially
sanctioned zoning laws, local land use planning, and widespread (if offi-
cially unconstitutional in the wake of the Shelley v. Kraemer decision of 1948)
use of racial covenants. Segregationist policies and practices, in the mean-
time, were justified in the neutralized language of scientifically determined
credit risk and property values (Freund 2007; Morgan 2003).
Housing policy was also beholden to a wide array of well-organized pri-
vate interests—from the real estate, mortgage banking, savings and loan,
and insurance industries to the building and construction trade unions.
Despite significant differences among them, private housing industry inter-
ests were unified in their opposition to anything that hinted of “socialist”
housing, in their deepening investment in private single-family homeown-
-1 ership, and in their interest in maintaining a steady stream of subsidies for
0 the private housing market. In the late 1940s, during the extended debates
+1
For all its expansive promise, however, the 1968 Housing Act left criti-
cal structural imbalances intact. Keyed to private industry interests, the
Section 235 program had few mechanisms for guarding first-time buyers
against the hazards of deceptive lending practices, shoddy construction,
or the very real risks of declining housing values, especially in low-income
and segregated minority neighborhoods (Bratt 2007, 45–50). Nor, prom-
ises of change to the contrary, did it do much to change the segregated
structure of private housing markets (Civil Rights Commission 1971).
Despite the legislation’s emphasis on producing moderate-income rental
housing, low-wage workers remained at least partly shut out from its ben-
efits after conservatives insisted on maintaining restrictive income ceilings
on eligibility for subsidized housing of any kind (Biles 2011).
Like left-liberal proposals to establish an encompassing guaranteed
income, then, the Johnson administration’s expansive housing initiatives
underscored the ambitions and limitations of Great Society efforts to
extend and revise the terms of the New Deal social contract to include low-
wage workers. Despite important differences among them, what Great
Society liberals like James Tobin and movement activists of the liberal
left had in common was a basic recognition that informed their efforts to
achieve fuller guarantees of jobs, income, housing, and economic rights:
even at the height of postwar affluence, and despite all it had done to create
a genuinely prosperous working and middle class, the New Deal order was
failing a substantial proportion of the non-unionized working class—those
who, for reasons of race, gender, geography, or class, had been unequally
treated or excluded altogether. The struggle to redress these inequities
had been central to progressive working-class and civil rights politics for
decades, and it realized important successes.
And yet, in structuring their efforts around the needs of low-wage work-
ers as low-income or “working poor” families, liberal policymakers in par-
ticular tended to minimize the need for more direct interventions to deal
with the tangle of structural inequities embedded in labor and housing
markets. Nor would the idea of expanding the reach of social welfare policy
prove nearly as straightforward as it once might have seemed—raising, as
it did, all sorts of questions about deservingness and un-deservingness and
about work versus welfare “dependency” that were deeply ingrained in
American political culture as well as in the existing structure of the wel-
fare state. The very features that made the existing system inequitable, frag-
mented, and incomplete also “channeled” its social politics in ways that
made it difficult to sustain broad-based coalitions for even the more modest
versions of the universalizing reforms envisioned in their various plans to
end poverty, achieve at least a minimum level of economic security for all, -1
stabilize minority working-class neighborhoods, and extend housing and 0
+1
until the late 1990s, when its rapid growth into the nation’s largest antipov-
erty program drew the ire of the more and more extremist antigovernment
factions of the conservative movement), and because it is one of the few
antipoverty programs that has expanded substantially since its establish-
ment in 1975, to the point where it now reaches low-wage earning families
above as well as below the federal poverty line.6 And yet, the dynamics of
the EITC’s evolution and growth have also been shaped by the political
and economic trends that have seriously undermined the standing of the
low-wage working class, even as they have expanded its ranks.
The origins and early genesis of the EITC point to just how much the poli-
tics of social provision had changed by the early 1970s. Where Great Society
efforts had centered on increased benefits and expanded eligibility for direct
income support, the EITC was framed as a way to provide tax relief for low-
wage workers—who at the time were facing social security payroll tax hikes
that would only rise further over the course of the next two decades—and
to keep them off the welfare rolls. The tax credit was also a product
of the extended struggles over Nixon’s FAP and welfare reform more
generally—and one reason why, from the beginning, EITC benefits have tar-
geted families with children. Among the EITC’s lead sponsors in Congress
was Senator Russell Long, a conservative Democrat (Louisiana) well known
for his animosity toward welfare rights; he proposed the credit as a “work
bonus” scheme designed to supplement low-wage workers’ incomes while
providing an incentive to stay in the workforce rather than turn to welfare.
After several failed attempts, the EITC was passed as part of the Tax Reduc-
tion Act of 1975. It initially offered modest benefits and remained limited in
reach (Howard 1997).
Starting in the 1980s, the EITC would figure more and more promi-
nently in efforts not just to reform welfare and boost the incomes of low-
wage workers but to bring the era of “big government” liberalism to an
end, through a growing emphasis on wealth-favoring tax cuts, selective
spending limits, cutbacks in direct spending for the poor, and tax code
changes that made the system less progressive. The first major expan-
sion in EITC coverage and benefits came in the wake of dramatic tax and
spending cuts in the first years of the Reagan administration that severely
restricted welfare eligibility, ended provisions that had allowed recipients
to retain income from work, and raised poverty rates among low-wage
workers while lowering taxes for the affluent. EITC expansion was incorpo-
rated into the Tax Reform Act of 1986, which effectively eliminated federal
income tax (though not payroll tax) liability for families at the very bottom
of the income distribution, in part as a way of offsetting the distributional
-1 impact of the tax rate reductions at the upper end (Howard 1997, 145–49).
0 These and subsequent EITC expansions (in 1990 and 1993) also took place
+1
fixed monthly mortgage payments. All that was to change starting in the
late 1960s and early 1970s, when the combination of falling wages, rising
inflation, the fallout from an international credit “crunch” that shook up
U.S. mortgage markets, and the ongoing squeeze from the war in Viet-
nam threatened to send the homeownership industry into decline. That
looming threat, which was especially keenly felt by the mortgage banking
industry, had led to one of the lesser-noticed provisions of the 1968 Fair
Housing Act, the semiprivatization of Fannie Mae and the authorization
of mortgage securitization. This began a sequence of interventions that, in
the name of saving the “American dream” of homeownership, completely
changed the dynamics of mortgage markets.
Over the course of several years, these interventions would lay the polit-
ical and institutional groundwork for the push to “financialize” homeown-
ership and to promote it as both a form and a source of investment capital,
beginning with the extension of Fannie Mae and newly established Freddie
Mac benefits to the “conventional” mortgage market in 1970; a spate of
judicially sanctioned challenges to state usury laws throughout the 1970s
and 1980s that opened the door first to higher interest rates and eventually,
along with a much wider array of deregulatory measures, to the exploding
market for subprime mortgages; the emergence of a new array of mostly
unregulated mortgage origination and lending institutions; and legislation
that authorized Wall Street’s entry into the market for securitized mortgage
debt, along with the ever-more “innovative” financial instruments, such as
collateralized debt obligations, designed to raise more and more invest-
ment capital—and profit—from other people’s debt. In an era of unsteady
wages and employment, homeownership—and access to the credit nec-
essary to attain it—would grow in importance as a promise of stability
for working- and middle-class families, but it would take an enormous
amount of ultimately destabilizing interventions to prop it up (Hyman
2011; Immergluck 2009). As would become all too clear in the wake of the
subprime mortgage collapse, this promise was also based on the illusion
that housing values could only go up.
movement did not come more prominently into view until the early
1990s (McCulloch 2001; Sherradan 1991). By then, the wealth-building
approach had an ideologically eclectic but decidedly bipartisan base of
support, and it drew on analyses that focused on the material as well as
the (allegedly) cultural value of homeownership (Rohe and Watson 2007).
By the late 1990s, the most exuberant enthusiasts were touting homeown-
ership as the ultimate postwelfare solution to poverty. In this, they were
boosted by two federal initiatives—the first by the Clinton administra-
tion and the second by the George W. Bush administration—to expand
homeownership to unprecedented levels (which they reached in 2004 at
68 percent overall) by targeting low-income minorities for assistance. As
would become all too powerfully clear, these initiatives did little more
than paper over the deeper problems of inequality, declining wages, and
the growing insecurity of wage-earning itself, all of which made easy
access to ownership—and taking on huge amounts of debt—seem like
not so much a sure way as the only way to get ahead.
As even this partial survey suggests, recent history has produced a
number of ideas about social policies that provide much-needed relief for
low-wage workers—with decidedly mixed results. These interventions
pale in significance, however, in comparison to the underlying shift from
New Deal to neoliberal political and economic priorities that has contrib-
uted to the proliferation and declining conditions of low-wage work and
the workers it employs. This is especially pronounced in the demise of
full employment as a central commitment of economic policy and as the
centerpiece of a more encompassing antipoverty agenda, as envisioned by
James Tobin and other Great Society liberals more than four decades ago.
It is also evident in the political and ideological retreat from a commitment
to fair labor standards, economic security, and “freedom from want” as
signposts of economic health. In these and other ways, history points us to
where the conversation about contemporary policy and politics needs to
start and also shows us what it needs to include if we are not to lose sight of
the standards of fairness, decency, and economic justice established by ear-
lier generations of organizers and policy advocates for what an economy
that works for workers looks like and what wage-earning for all workers
can and should provide.
Thus, the contemporary policy discussion starts from the recognition
that the problem of low-wage work is not about declining income alone. It
is about the historically degraded condition of wage-earning as a valued
social and economic endeavor and the role of political choices over the
past three decades in bringing that condition about. It is about the striking
decline in mobility for all American workers since the late 1970s, especially -1
in comparison to their counterparts in advanced industrial democracies 0
+1
(Russell Sage Foundation and Pew Charitable Trust 2011). It is about the
millions of workers who have been left less economically secure, less well
represented in politics and in the workplace, and more subject to degrad-
ing demands from their employers (Ehrenreich 2001; Greenhouse 2008;
Shulman 2005). And it is about the by-now-familiar economic indicators
of the New Gilded Age: falling wages at the bottom; rising concentrations
of wealth at the very top; and, more recently, the decidedly top-heavy
nature of the “recovery” from the Great Recession of 2008 (O’Connor
2011; U.S. Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission 2010).
The policy agenda for low-wage workers likewise extends beyond
income and assets to encompass a broader scope, starting with economic
policies committed to achieving full employment and better jobs and
including the range of interventions considered in subsequent chapters
in this volume. Collectively, they call attention to the need for a compre-
hensive policy and political agenda that reopens channels for effective
work- and community-based organizing; establishes effective and effec-
tively enforced labor standards; creates a new version of the deliberately
shredded safety net for the poor and unemployed; and reintroduces fair
compensation and equitable distribution as baseline principles of political
economy.
History also reminds us that creating an economy that works for work-
ers does not mean simply going back to the way we (never) were. Relevant
though it remains as a framework for more just and inclusive economic
citizenship, the New Deal left many gaps and inequities that made low-
wage work an enduring problem throughout the postwar years—and that
remain unresolved today. What it does mean is using the New Deal social
contract much as movement activists did in the 1960s: as a framework
for asking how the economic rights and commitments that the New Deal
envisioned can be realized in a much-altered twenty-first-century eco-
nomic environment, and on more fully inclusive terms. This approach to
framing the issues is especially important in light of the key policy chal-
lenges ahead: the challenge of creating and sustaining high standards of
employment in an ever-more globalized economy; the challenge of mak-
ing housing affordable in a culture still entrenched in private homeown-
ership; and the challenge of creating a sense of shared need and common
fate in a political culture that has grown more skeptical of collectivized
social provision.
Finally, history offers a powerful sense of just how much is wrapped
up in the questions of work and wages—and why. While it has become
something of a cliché to tie well-paid work opportunities and shared pros-
-1 perity to the pursuit of the American dream of upward mobility, a deeper
0 look at the historical record underscores how central they have been to
+1
Notes
1. Binyamin Appelbaum and Robert Gebeloff, “Tax Burden for Most Ameri-
cans Lower Than in the 1980s,” New York Times, November 29, 2012; see also
Hungerford (2011).
2. FDR first laid out the Economic Bill of Rights in his 1944 State of the Union
Address, but it subsequently became a central campaign theme. It represents
a distillation of rights he had enumerated in his famous 1941 “Four Freedoms”
speech, delivered amid the looming threat of world war, in which he laid out
four “essential freedoms” fundamental to the preservation of democracy: free-
dom of speech, freedom of worship, freedom from want, and freedom from fear
(Roosevelt 1941, 1944). For a fuller discussion of the political and ideological
traditions FDR was drawing on, see Donohue (2003).
3. This was the language of the Housing Act of 1949, which would frequently be
reiterated in subsequent legislation through the 1960s.
4. The Family Assistance Plan would have provided $1,600 for a family of four
and was contingent on work requirements; Tobin’s plan would have set the
minimum at the poverty line, at the time roughly $3,000 for a family of four,
while welfare rights activists called for significantly higher levels.
5. See, for example, Donald L. Barlett and James B. Steele, “Speculators Make a
Killing on FHA Program,” Philadelphia Inquirer, August 22, 1971.
6. The maximum EITC for 2012 ranged between $5,200 and $5,800 for fami-
lies with two or three children and earning up to $45,000, or approximately
double the federal poverty line. Recent analysis from the Center on Budget
and Policy Priorities indicates that the EITC raised the incomes of 5.7 million
families above the federal poverty line (approximately $23,000 for a family
of four) (Sherman 2012).
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-1
0
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Richard B. Freeman
The starting point for any realistic assessment of what labor organizations
can do for American workers is recognition that the traditional union model
of organizing workers through representation elections and bargaining col-
lectively with management has reached a dead end. With private-sector
union density in single digits and falling and public-sector collective bar-
gaining under attack, the only sensible answer to this chapter’s title ques-
tion is that unions will not accomplish much unless they find ways to have
an impact on economic outcomes outside of collective bargaining.
In some ways the situation of labor in the early twenty-first century
resembles that in 1932 when George Barnett, then president of the Ameri-
can Economic Association, declared that “I see no reason to believe that
American trade unionism will . . . become in the next decade a more potent
social influence . . . trade unionism is likely to be a declining influence in
determining conditions of labor.”1 Barnett’s analysis was predicated on the
continuous fall in union density in the 1920s and Great Depression levels of
joblessness that seemed to strengthen employers’ ability to defeat any orga-
nizing efforts. Today a similar view would follow from the continuous fall in
union density from the 1960s through the early 2010s, the weak job market
during the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009, and the sluggish jobs recovery.
Barnett’s prognostication was invalidated almost immediately after his
address—millions of workers turned to unions for economic protection
during the Great Depression. But the Great Recession has seen no such
-1 response. Indeed, the recent recession has, if anything, produced the
0 opposite reaction: it has emboldened conservative attacks on public-sector
+1
50
bargaining and union security clauses and forced unions into a circle-the-
wagons defense of existing practices.
If defending the declining percentage of workers with access to collective
bargaining was the entire story of labor in the 2000s, this chapter would end
with a short rest-in-peace epitaph. But in the 2000s, declining union density
and the Great Recession notwithstanding, labor activists, social entrepre-
neurs, and some unionists have developed new ways to mobilize workers
and the public to press for improvements in labor conditions outside of col-
lective bargaining. If unions and other labor organizations find ways to bring
these successful innovations to scale, the answer to the title question will be
“quite a bit” rather than “not much.”
This chapter explores what unions and related labor organizations have
begun to do for workers outside of collective bargaining. I begin by review-
ing the problem posed for labor by the failure of the firm-based collective
bargaining model, then examine some promising non–collective bargaining
initiatives, and conclude by considering how these initiatives might expand
to make labor a more potent influence on economic outcomes than it is today.
due to a lockout at any point in time increased more than the lockout
share of stoppages.
To arrest the decline in density unions have tried to convince Congress
to enact pro-union labor law reforms whenever the Democrats control the
federal government. Their efforts came up short in the 1970s under Presi-
dent Jimmy Carter, in the 1990s under President Bill Clinton, and in the
2000s under President Barack Obama. Efforts to invigorate union organiz-
ing by elevating former organizing directors to leadership roles in unions
and the 2005 withdrawal of several major unions from the AFL-CIO to form
the Change to Win coalition also failed to arrest the drop in density.
The public sector is the only place where unions held their own. Public-
sector union density stabilized at around 37 percent in the 2000s.9 With
private-sector density falling and public-sector density rising, public-sector
union membership surpassed private-sector membership in 2010. When
recession-induced budget crises hit cities and states nationwide, however,
opponents of unions launched a massive attack on public-sector bargain-
ing on the grounds that collective bargaining had contributed substantially
to the public-sector deficit problem (Freeman and Han 2012).10 The Ameri-
can Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), an association of conservative
legislators, corporations, and foundations, promulgated bills to restrict
public-sector bargaining and limit dues checkoffs, agency fees, and union
political activities. The battle in Wisconsin over Republican governor Scott
Walker’s 2011 budget bill that ended public-sector collective bargaining
except for police and fire induced a massive union response (Schneider
2011).11 State petitions forced Governor Walker into a recall election but
the pro–collective bargaining forces were unable to unseat him in the elec-
tion. In Ohio, unions and their allies were more successful in overturning
a bill to end collective bargaining for all public-sector employees in a state-
wide referendum. But in December 2011, a lame-duck Republican legisla-
ture in Michigan enacted a right-to-work law that outlawed agency shops
for workers, with the exception of police and firefighters.12 In these states
and others, unions spent considerable resources defending the status quo
against well-financed opponents who seemed orc-like in their efforts to
accelerate the ongoing decline in collective bargaining.
What explains the continued decline of unions during the Great Reces-
sion and recovery compared to the spurt in unionism during the Great
Depression?
Opinion polls suggest that the two economic disasters altered public
attitudes toward unions differently. When unions had their Great Depres-
sion growth spurt between 1934 and 1939, the vast majority of Americans
appear to have strongly favored unions (Freeman 1998, 268, table 8.1). The -1
Gallup poll data in figure 2.1 show that in 1936 (the first time Gallup asked 0
+1
80 75
72 66 65
64
60 59 59
Percentage
52
40 42
31 30 28
20 20 21 23
14
0
1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Year
Source: Jones (2012). Copyright (2012) Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. The content is used
with permission; however, Gallup retains all rights of republication.
Would you personally like to see labor unions in the United States have more influence
than they have today, or less influence than they have today?
Same Less More
42 42 41
40
38
36 36 36
Percentage
35 35 35
32 31 31 32
30 33 32 29 30 29
28
30 30 29 29
27 28 28 27
25 25 25
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Source: Jones (2012). Copyright (2012) Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. The content is used
with permission; however, Gallup retains all rights of republication.
2012). Consistent with this, while before the Great Recession a majority of
Americans believed that unions benefit not only their members but other
workers as well, after the recession a majority believed that unions mostly
harm nonmembers.14
But the most telling aspect of the increasingly negative attitudes toward
unions is its partisan nature. Figure 2.3 shows that between 1999 and 2011
Republican approval of unions fell from 51 percent to 26 percent. By con-
trast, Democrats maintained a high approval of unions, while indepen-
dents’ approval of unions fell modestly. The Democratic-Republican gap
in approval doubled from twenty-six points in 1999 to fifty-two points in
2011. The 2011 negative Republican attitude toward unionism is a far cry
from the Republican attitude in the 1950s, when President Dwight Eisen-
hower thanked unions for their “unique contribution to the general welfare
of the Republic—the development of the American philosophy of labor”
(Eisenhower 1955).
Figure 2.4 shows another factor that may help explain union weak-
ness in the current period: the widespread belief that unions will become
weaker in the future. Although Gallup did not ask, “Will labor unions
become stronger or weaker?” in the 1930s, the burst of strikes in 1933 and -1
1934, the development of industrial unionism in the mid-1930s, and the 0
+1
% Approve
Democrats Independents Republicans
77 77 80 78
76 74 75 76 76 72 71
66
56 57 58 60
Percentage
70 69 55 52
60 63 49
44
51 50
46 43 42 43
41 38 38 34
29 26
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Source: Jones (2011). Copyright (2011) Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. The content is used
with permission; however, Gallup retains all rights of republication.
Thinking about the future, do you think labor unions in this country will become
stronger than they are today, the same as today, or weaker than they are today?
Stronger Same Weaker
53 55
52
48 46
44 45
41
Percentage
40 41
36
30 31 30
28 35 34 25 25
24 22 22
25 24 24 25
23 21 22 21
19 19 20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Source: Jones (2012). Copyright (2012) Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. The content is used
-1 with permission; however, Gallup retains all rights of republication.
0
+1
1. Groups that target broad economic and social issues and do not deal
with specific firms, occupations, or industries
2. Groups that target workers in particular occupations or industries,
seeking to improve their economic situation without gaining collec-
tive bargaining contracts
3. Groups that seek to improve the economic situation of workers in par-
ticular firms or those working for particular employers without gain-
ing collective bargaining contracts
Table 2.1 (Continued)
Institution (beginning Method of
date, numbers Problem Influencing
involved, dues) Organization Addressed Outcome
Freelancers Union Worker health Worker health Provide health
(2003, created from insurance insurance; insurance
Working Today, wage arrears benefits;
170,000 members, problems information
no dues)
Employer-Based
Alliance@IBM (1999, Commu- Changes in Internet informa-
several hundred nications employment tion/publicity;
members, 5,000 sub- Workers of practices and petitions
scribers, $10/month America benefits
dues) (CWA) local
WashTech (1998, CWA local Changes in Internet
$10–11/month dues) employment information/
practices and publicity;
benefits petitions
OUR Walmart (2010, NGO, with Pay and work Publicity;
based on earlier UFCW conditions in demonstrations
UFCW campaigns, support Walmart
“several thousand”
members, $5/month
dues)
Public-sector unions Unions Wages, Politics; lobbying;
in non–collective benefits, meet-and-
bargaining states work confer
(680,000 in 2011, conditions agreements
14.5 percent
density)
Source: Author’s compilation. On Change.org, see “Start a Petition” (http://www.change.org/)
and “About” (http://www.change.org/about) (accessed December 12, 2012); on the Freelanc-
ers Union, see “History” (http://www.freelancersunion.org/about/history.html); on Working
Today, see Hersch (2004); on subscriber numbers for Alliance@IBM and on OUR Walmart,
see Steven Greenhouse, “Wal-Mart Workers Try the Nonunion Route,” New York Times, June
15, 2011; on public-sector unions, see Freeman and Han (2013).
-1
0
+1
Sincerely,
[your name]26
into two national networks, the National Day Laborer Organizing Network
(NDLON), which had forty-three member organizations in 2012, and the
Interfaith Worker Justice (IWJ), which listed twenty-six worker centers that
reached seventeen thousand workers in 2012 (Enriquez 2011). Impressed
by the worker centers movement, the AFL-CIO entered into partnership
with NDLON in 2006 to “work together for state and local enforcement
of rights as well as the development of new protections in areas includ-
ing wage and hour laws, health and safety regulations, immigrants’ rights
and employee misclassification . . . [and] . . . for comprehensive immigra-
tion reform that supports workplace rights . . . and against punitive, anti-
immigrant, anti-worker legislation” (AFL-CIO 2006).31 The AFL-CIO also
formed a partnership with the IWJ and entered similar agreements with
two related immigrant-based organizations, the National Domestic Work-
ers Alliance (NDWA) and the National Guestworker Alliance (NGA).
Since worker centers do not bargain collectively with single employ-
ers, they operate outside of the NLRA and seek to remain outside its juris-
diction, which would limit their ability to undertake secondary boycotts
to assist workers outside of collective bargaining and would require
them to file regular reports with the agency. Whether the centers can
remain outside the NLRA is an area of controversy among labor lawyers.
David Rosenfeld (2006, 469) argues that the definition of a labor orga-
nization is sufficiently broad that, “as they grow in number and scope,
worker centers will have their development and effectiveness arrested
by the very problem they were designed to avoid: the regulation of and
restrictions on labor organizations under the National Labor Relations
Act (NLRA).” Eli Naduris-Weissman (2009) argues the contrary—that as
long as the centers limit themselves to settling individual employment
claims, they will be exempt from the law.32 Stefan Marculewicz and Jenni-
fer Thomas (2012) claim that the worker centers are worker organizations
by another name and thus subject to NLRA regulations.33 That the centers
prefer operating outside of the NLRA is a sign of how dysfunctional the
U.S. labor code has become for workers seeking to better their economic
condition.
and eleven states, the NDWA operates further outside the NRLB labor
organizational form than worker centers. The NDWA’s main legislative
success was lobbying New York State to adopt the “Domestic Workers’
Bill of Rights” to ensure basic labor protections for domestic workers. A
similar bill that it pushed through the California legislature was vetoed
by Governor Jerry Brown. It has pressed Congress to end exclusions of
domestic workers from the nation’s labor laws and to cover them under
minimum wage and hours legislation. In 2011 the AFL-CIO endorsed
the NDWA and sent a joint “open letter” with the group to trade unions
and national centers around the world about the union movement’s
work with the NDWA (AFL-CIO/NDWA 2011).35 Time magazine viewed
the NDWA as sufficiently promising to name the group’s founder,
Ai-Jen Poo, one of the one hundred most influential people in the world
in 2012—the only person on the list whose occupation was labor activist
(Steinem 2012).
Advocacy for Taxi Drivers: New York Taxi Workers Alliance The New
York Taxi Workers Alliance (NYTWA) represents taxi drivers in the city as a
trade union but without bargaining collectively with any single employer.
Founded in 1998, the NYTWA reports having more than fifteen thousand
members, who pay $100 a year in dues. It lists its successes as: gaining
the first-ever living wage standard for U.S. taxi drivers; getting $15 million
in federal disaster assistance for taxi drivers after the terrorist attacks of
September 11, 2001; organizing short strikes of drivers in May 1998 and
September 2007; recovering lost income due to unlawful license suspen-
sions; defending drivers in civil court claims; lobbying for driver-friendly
taxi industry policies and regulations. All of these successes, it claims, have
raised drivers’ incomes by 35 to 45 percent.
The NYTWA provides discounted or pro bono legal advice, financial
management, and health services to its members. In September 2011, the
AFL-CIO chartered the NYTWA as a member of the federation, making it
the first nontraditional workers’ organization chartered in over six decades.
President Obama recognized the union for its success at a Washington, D.C.,
meeting hosted by the administration’s Office of Faith-Based and Neigh-
borhood Partnerships. The organization has inspired and assisted with the
development of similar taxi driver worker alliances in twenty other areas
of the United States and in several foreign countries. For creating a stable
labor organization in an industry with high turnover, and in the absence of
collective bargaining, the founder, Bhairavi Desai, has won various awards
and been lauded for her success by President Obama and AFL-CIO head -1
Richard Trumka.36 0
+1
Employer-Based Organizations
Union Locals: Alliance@IBM and WashTech Both Alliance@IBM and
the Washington Alliance of Technology Workers (WashTech) are char-
tered locals of the Communication Workers of America (CWA). Informa-
tion technology (IT) workers at IBM and Microsoft originally formed the
groups as independent worker organizations and later affiliated with the
CWA, which represents workers in telecommunications and related fields.
IT workers at IBM formed the Alliance@IBM in 1999 to protest the changes
that IBM made to its pension system that harmed some future retirees. The
protest succeeded in getting IBM to alter some parts of its planned changes.
Recognizing that IBM management and the media would listen only if IBM
employees had an organization of thousands, the Alliance@IBM initiated a
-1 membership drive for associate members, promising employees that their
0 names would be confidential. When, at the end of 2012, IBM management
+1
changed the timing of the firm’s match contribution to workers’ 401(k) pen-
sion plans in ways that reduced the value of the plan to some employees,
the Alliance@IBM used the change.org petition site to petition “to tell IBM
to REVERSE their decision!”37
Microsoft contract employees in Redmond, Washington, formed the
Washington Alliance of Technology Workers in 1998 to organize protests
against the firm’s overtime pay for contract employees. Because contract
workers were hired by employment agencies rather than Microsoft and
workers shifted employers frequently, WashTech, finding it unfeasible to rep-
resent only Microsoft workers (Bishop 2009), widened its scope to include
high-tech industry workers in the Northwest more broadly. WashTech
signed a collective bargaining contract with a company in 2003 and has
negotiated and signed three more since with small employers. The orga-
nization tells workers, “Join WashTech today for as little as $11/month and
enjoy Union Plus benefits,” and it informs them that “you do not have to
live in Washington State to join.”
The CWA chartered both Alliance@IBM and WashTech as local unions
even though neither has any possibility of gaining majority support from
the IT giants. With minimal dues and modest membership, both organiza-
tions have remained alive and active for over a decade. Wayne Diamond
and Richard Freeman (2002, 581) note that “even if workers at IBM, Micro-
soft and most other high tech firms never win an NLRB election, these
sites make the union a part of the company in a way that was impossible
prior to the Internet.” But even with low-cost modern modes of communi-
cation, the organizations need more than a few activists to remain viable.
In March 2013, Alliance@IBM reported on its website that “we can not
continue to do our work if we don’t have dues paying members. At this
point we are on life support. Our membership has dropped and we are
not gaining new members. In order to keep the Alliance going we need
you to help out.”38
improve conditions and to “provide wages and benefits that ensure that
no Associate has to rely on government assistance” and to share profits
and treat associates as partners.40
OUR Walmart burst to national attention in the fall of 2012, when mem-
bers struck for a day at a California warehouse and then undertook a one-
day protest/strike on “Black Friday,” the post-Thanksgiving sales day.
Though the number of workers who struck on Black Friday was minus-
cule compared to Walmart’s 1.4 million U.S. employees, the strike received
national attention.41 Some analysts derided the strike as a failure, since it
neither interfered with the operation of stores nor harmed company sales.
Other analysts claimed that the strike succeeded in that it gained the atten-
tion of Walmart management. The company sought an NLRB injunction
against the strike, held anti-union meetings in many stores to convince
workers it was not in their interests to join OUR Walmart, and offered
workers an extra discount on their Walmart purchases on Black Friday.
Some workers joined the organization or went out on strike in response to
management pressures.42 Walmart was sufficiently bothered by the various
protests that in March 2013 it sued the UFCW in a Florida court to “pro-
tect our customers and associates from further disruptive tactics associated
with their continued, illegal trespassing.”43
In 2012, OUR Walmart reported that it had about 4,000 members, who
paid dues of $5 per month, and it also reported 2,229 signatures to its dec-
laration. By raising issues and protesting conditions, OUR Walmart has
proven that it can force management to respond. If it grows its member-
ship, it is possible that Walmart will improve its human resource policies
and wages and benefits to choke off further growth of the organization
as well as to seek legal redress from protests. Whether OUR Walmart can
go beyond that and become an organization that the firm feels compelled
to “meet and confer” with over employee issues depends not only on
its ability to galvanize workers but also to gain support from the store’s
customers.
Conclusion
Since the turn of the twenty-first century, a wide range of groups—from
freewheeling “occupiers,” petition sites, and worker centers to alliances
of freelancers or taxi drivers to the union-initiated, non-union worker
organization OUR Walmart—have experimented with non–collective bar-
gaining modes of representing workers’ interests inside and outside com-
panies. Some of these organizations fit the “open source union” model
that Joel Rogers and I proposed over a decade ago to engage workers out-
side of collective bargaining (Freeman and Rogers 2002, 2006). Some have
gone beyond what we envisaged as the ways in which groups can press
for change have multiplied with the expansion of the Internet and the
development of social media. Traditional unions have begun to move in
the same direction, either to support innovative non-union groups or to
learn from them how best to navigate an economic environment in which
collective bargaining is in abeyance. In 2013, for the first time, the top lead-
ership of the AFL-CIO went public in recognizing that the business model
of representing workers through collective bargaining has failed and it is
time to rebuild the labor movement around a different model. In a set of
media interviews, AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka admitted that the
basic system of workplace representation has failed “miserably to meet
the needs of America’s workers,” and he called on unions to embrace new
models of representation and to restructure their organizations to take as
members “people who want to join,” regardless of whether their employ-
ers accept collective bargaining.44 Whether or not the unions can take up
Trumka’s charge to reinvent themselves and rebuild the U.S. labor move-
ment, the “second chapter” in the story of labor organizations and activ-
ists seeking to help workers in nontraditional ways holds considerable
promise. The implosion of Wall Street, the Great Recession, and the slug- -1
gish job recovery have brought the weaknesses of the U.S. economy to the 0
+1
fore and produced widespread dissatisfaction with the U.S. brand of cap-
italism. It is difficult to imagine the country successfully addressing its
labor problems—income inequality, stagnant real wages, poverty-level
earnings for low-paid workers, continued high rates of joblessness—
without a strong labor movement of some kind. With a great social need
and a growing pool of committed activists developing innovative ways to
represent workers and fight for improvements in their living conditions,
it is also difficult to imagine the present situation continuing ad infinitum.
If the AFL-CIO or the Change to Win unions cannot do the job, I expect
that other groups will forge ahead. At the risk of tempting some future
scholar to cite my shortsightedness about where society may be head-
ing—as I have cited Barnett’s 1932 prediction—I see reason to believe that
the diverse forms of social experimentation described here will give labor
a more potent influence on society than it has today.
Notes
1. George Barnett, American Economic Association presidential address, Decem-
ber 1932. For the relevance of these remarks today, see Eduardo Porter, “Unions’
Past May Hold Key to Their Future,.” New York Times, July 18, 2012.
2. The situation facing unions is so dire that I expect that NLRB policy changes such
as the 2012 decision to speed up representation elections will have no noticeable
effect on union density. See Steven Greenhouse, “Labor Board Adopts Rules to
Speed Unionization Votes,” New York Times, December 22, 2011.
3. See “Times Topics: United Automobile Workers,” New York Times, available at:
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/u/united_
automobile_workers/index.html (accessed September 2013).
4. Bill Vlasik, “UAW Makes Concessions to Help Automakers,” New York Times,
December 3, 2008.
5. When GM earned its highest profits in history in 2011, its 47,000 blue-collar
UAW workers received about $7,000 each in bonuses. Chrysler paid about
$1,500 in bonuses to its 23,000 hourly workers. Ford paid $3,252 each to its
40,600 UAW workers based on half a year’s profits, which put it in line for
making annual bonus payments in 2011 of $6,000 to $7,000. For a discussion
of Ford sharing the wealth, see Alisa Priddle, “Ford Sharing Wealth of Recent
Gains,” Chicago Tribune, January 20, 2012; on GM’s 2011 profit-sharing, see
United Automobile Workers (2012).
6. Motor vehicles and motor vehicles manufacturing data are for census code
industry 3570, which covers many more firms than the Big Three.
7. Steven Greenhouse, “More Lockouts as Companies Battle Unions,” New York
-1 Times, January 23, 2012; Wojcik (2012).
0 8. In 2011, the NFL and NBA locked out players to force them to accept lower
+1 shares of industry receipts. In August 2011, American Crystal Sugar locked
out its Minnesota employees, whom it replaced with temporary workers. This
dispute was sixteen months long without resolution as of December 2012; see
Mike Hughlett, “Crystal Sugar Workers Reject Contract Again,” Star Tribune,
December 2, 2012. In January 2011, the financially troubled New York City
Opera locked out its orchestra and singers and won deep cuts in labor com-
pensation; see Daniel J. Wakin, “New York City Opera Ratifies Agreement,”
New York Times, January 19, 2012. In 2012, the NFL locked out referees, and
the NHL locked out its players.
9. See “The Union Membership and Coverage Database from the Current Pop-
ulation Survey: Union Membership, Coverage, Density, and Employment
Among Public-Sector Workers, 1973–2011,” constructed by Barry Hirsch and
David Macpherson, available in the Index of Tables at: www.unionstats.com
(accessed November 21, 2013).
10. In March 2009, John Kasich of Ohio, who would be elected governor in 2010,
talked about the need to “break the back of organized labor in the schools”
(ModernEsquire 2010). Many conservatives had long believed that it was ille-
gitimate for government to bargain with unions in a democracy on the grounds
that voters rather than bargaining should set the terms of work (McHugh 2011).
11. Earlier, Republican governors in Indiana, Kentucky, and Missouri had revoked
executive orders that allowed state employees to bargain (Malin 2009). To
make sure future governors did not restore the right to bargain, the Indiana
legislature required legislative approval of any future executive decision.
12. Michael A. Fletcher and Sean Sullivan, “Michigan Enacts Right-to-Work Law,
Dealing Blow to Unions,” Washington Post, December 11, 2012.
13. Adam Berinsky and his colleagues (2011) have developed weights to turn
the quota-sampling procedures used in the early public opinion surveys into
population-weighted estimates. These show huge approval for unions from
the 1930s through 1942.
14. In 2009, 51 percent believed that unions harm nonmembers, compared to 36 per-
cent in 2006; for all of the Gallup poll results, see http://www.gallup.com/poll/
12751/labor-unions.aspx (accessed September 2013).
15. The proportion who see the country as going in the wrong direction varies with
economic and political developments, but it has been high since the implo-
sion of the finance industry and the ensuing recession. See Real Clear Politics,
“Direction of Country,” based on 707 polls, available at: http://www.realclear
politics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html (updated December 5,
2012; accessed February 18, 2012).
16. The difference in the proportion of Republicans and Democrats who view
unions as having too much power was a huge forty-nine points. This con-
trasts with modest partisan differences for other entities, save for the federal
government (a forty-one-point difference); see Saad (2011). -1
17. “OWS’s main issues are social and economic inequality, greed, corruption and 0
the perceived undue influence of corporations on government” (Dilek 2013). +1
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0
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0
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Even before the Great Recession began at the end of 2007, employment out-
comes among disadvantaged and less-educated youth, and especially among
young men, had been deteriorating over time. Both their levels of earnings
and their employment and labor force participation rates had decreased for
a few decades. Among young black men, the declines in employment and
labor force activity have been particularly pronounced, while their rates of
incarceration have risen dramatically. As a result, the percentage of these
young men who are “disconnected” from school and work has risen.
Unfortunately, the Great Recession appears to have worsened these out-
comes. Since 2007, employment rates have declined the most among young,
less-educated, and/or minority men—in other words, mostly the same
groups whose employment and earnings had already been worsening ear-
lier. The recession has been not only severe but also very persistent; nearly
five years after it began, relatively little labor market recovery has been
observed. Therefore, the worsened employment outcomes we see for dis-
advantaged youth will last for many years and for many young people may
lead to “scarring”—that is, their future earnings may be permanently lower.
In this chapter, we briefly review recent trends in employment out-
comes for disadvantaged youth, focusing specifically on those who have
become “disconnected” from school and the labor market, and discuss
the reasons for these trends. We then review a range of policy prescrip-
-1
tions that might improve those outcomes, including: efforts to enhance
0
+1
81
discuss these developments in the recent past and their implications for
disconnected youth over the next several years.
Table 3.1 (Continued)
1979 2007 2010
Mean hourly wage
All $10.80 $10.50 $10.30
White male 12.30 11.30 11.20
Black male 10.90 10.30 10.20
Hispanic male 11.40 11.70 10.70
White female 9.40 9.50 9.50
Black female 9.20 9.40 9.60
Hispanic female 9.20 9.30 9.50
Source: Authors’ calculations based on Current Population Survey, Outgoing Rotation Groups
(U.S. Census Bureau, 1979–2010).
Notes: The sample is restricted to ages sixteen to twenty-four. It excludes anyone who has
earned a postsecondary educational degree. It also excludes those employed in agriculture
or the military and those who are self-employed. Individuals with real hourly wages below
$2 or above $5,000 are not included.
the downward trend for young black men would look considerably
worse.3 We also note that trends in average hourly wages roughly par-
allel those of employment: real wages for young less-educated women
have grown slightly over three decades, while real wages have fallen for
young men, many of whom may have dropped out of the labor market
as a result (Juhn 1992).
Finally, we note the apparent effects of the Great Recession, which
seems to have led to modest rises in school enrollment for this population
and very steep declines in employment, which, again, have been greatest
among less-educated men. This recession has been not only severe but very
persistent: as of early 2013, over five years after the recession began, the
recovery observed so far in the labor market has been very modest, and
virtually all economists expect that the recovery will proceed quite slowly
over the next several years. This implies that young people are likely to
be “scarred” by a loss of work experience over several years and a lack of
upward mobility through different jobs (von Wachter 2010; Kahn 2010).4
What other outcomes for young people vary by race and gender in ways
that might reflect differences in the opportunities they face? In table 3.2,
we present tabulations of a range of outcomes by race and gender for a
national sample of young people in their early twenties.5 We include mea-
sures of academic achievement (for example, grade point average and test -1
scores) and amount of schooling attained (dropping out of high school or 0
+1
+1
13502-04_CH03-2ndPgs.indd 86
Table 3.2 Educational and Behavioral Outcomes of Youth, 2004 to 2005
Males Females
White Black Hispanic White Black Hispanic
Not enrolled in school
High school dropout/GED 13.4% 27.6% 20.8% 12.0% 19.0% 20.6%
Bachelor’s degree 12.8 5.6 3.6 18.2 6.9 5.5
Enrolled in school
Four-year college 17.2 9.7 10.1 19.0 14.4 13.2
Unmarried, has children 9.9 30.8 17.9 17.3 47.5 29.6
Ever incarcerated 7.6 14.8 9.6 2.7 3.1 2.4
High school grade point average 2.5 1.9 2.1 2.7 2.2 2.3
ASVAB 57.3 28.1 39.4 58.2 32.0 38.8
Source: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97), round 8, October 2004 to July 2005.
Notes: Samples include respondents age twenty-two to twenty-four at the time of the interview. Enrollment is measured in the month of November.
The Armed Services Vocational Aptitude test (ASVAB) score is measured as a percentile of the overall distribution of scores.
12/10/13 8:33 AM
Connecting the Disconnected 87
LS
LD2 LD1
L2 L1 L
the demand for their labor (especially in cyclical industries like construc-
tion and manufacturing) more than the demand for the labor of others.
Second, we believe that some youth—especially black youth—who are
now “disconnected” from both school and the labor market have responded
to what appears to them to be a decline in long-run employment opportuni-
ties by giving up on mainstream possibilities and institutions. This is espe-
cially true not only for those who have dropped out of school and the labor
market but also for the very large numbers of those who have become incar-
cerated or noncustodial parents: one-third of all young black men become
incarcerated by age thirty-five, and up to one-half father children outside
marriage. We have described this process more fully in our earlier book
(Edelman, Holzer, and Offner 2006).
Figure 3.1 depicts these changes in employment and education out-
comes. The figure shows an adverse (or inward) shift in labor demand,
-1 of the type that has probably affected less-educated men because of the
0 economic forces just described. This demand shift leads to a withdrawal
+1
also advocate for improving the pecuniary incentives for youth to take
low-wage jobs and reducing the barriers and disincentives that tend to
discourage work among ex-offenders and noncustodial parents. But given
the major changes that have occurred in labor demand—especially during
the recent downturn—we explore a set of demand-side policies as well.
among at-risk youth who are still in school and improve their pathways
to postsecondary education and work; and (2) encourage those who have
already dropped out to reconnect to school or the labor market.
What works to achieve these goals for young people most cost-effectively?
While the overall evaluation evidence on employment and training pro-
grams has been mixed at best, we also believe that programs and curricula
that offer a combination of skill development and paid work experience
have often shown the strongest results at improving employment out-
comes for these youth (Heinrich and Holzer 2011). If the best of these
approaches could be replicated and brought to sufficient scale, in com-
bination with other policies identified later in this chapter, we think that
the impacts on disadvantaged youth in America could be positive and
sizable. For in-school youth, perhaps the strongest evidence on effective
combinations of education and work experience for youth appears in the
recent random assignment evaluation of career academies (Kemple 2008).
These programs often enroll a few hundred students within larger and
more comprehensive high schools; they take general academic courses but
also receive occupational training specific to a sector of the economy (such
as health care, information technology, or financial services) along with
work experience in the summer or during the school year.
The evaluation evidence on career academies shows that the subse-
quent earnings of at-risk young men were nearly 20 percent higher than
earnings for those in the control group as many as eight years after enter-
ing the program. Indeed, impacts for at-risk young men were significantly
larger than those for young women. More broadly, high-quality career
and technical education (CTE) offers the promise of higher graduation
rates and better labor market performance among youth (Hoffman 2011;
Symonds et al. 2011), especially if we can build a range of “pathways” to
good careers that combine strong academic preparation, applied technical
instruction, and work experience for all students in secondary and post-
secondary schools around the country.
For these programs to achieve their goals, they must not be perceived as
“tracking” low-income or minority youth away from postsecondary edu-
cation. The career academies succeeded in avoiding such tracking: those
who attended the academies later enrolled in postsecondary education at
the same rates as those in the control group. The goal is thus for high-
quality CTE to expand career possibilities, not to deter young people from
higher education. And career academies fit the model of “small schools
of choice,” which have generated much improved high school graduation
rates recently in New York City (Bloom, Thompson, and Unterman 2010).13
For youth who are out of school, the sectoral training program Year Up -1
offers similar evidence that skill development and paid work experience 0
+1
can improve youth outcomes (Roder and Elliott 2011).14 Geared for recent
high school graduates who have not yet gone on to postsecondary educa-
tion, Year Up provides several months of training for work, mostly in the
information technology and business management fields. It requires its
enrollees to have a high school diploma or General Educational Devel-
opment (GED) degree before joining the program, so those who have
dropped out would have to at least clear that hurdle.
Among programs that seek to help young dropouts attain a high school
diploma, the National Guard ChalleNGe program, a residential program
based on a strict military model, stands out. In an evaluation using random-
ized controlled trials (RCTs), about 72 percent of participants earned a high
school diploma or GED within three years of program entry, compared to
56 percent among controls (Millenky et al. 2011). The various programs
in New York’s Office of Multiple Pathways to Graduation (OMPG) offer
longer-term and quite intensive remediation for youth with more serious
skill deficiencies in a variety of nontraditional settings, while the Gateway
to College program, which is now in thirty colleges in sixteen states, offers
a quicker route to community college for those who have dropped out but
have decent basic skills. The OMPG programs and Gateway to College
remain to be evaluated, but look promising to date.
Out-of-school youth can also benefit from training and paid work
experience in a residential setting. For instance, the latest evaluation of the
Job Corps (Schochet, Burghardt, and McConnell 2008) shows some evi-
dence of fadeout of early gains, but the program remains cost-effective for
older youth (those age twenty to twenty-four).15 Among nonresidential
programs, YouthBuild provides training and construction experience for
youth who work at rehabilitating low-income housing projects; it has not
yet generated rigorous evaluation evidence (though an RCT evaluation is
under way), but it has led to substantially higher earnings for thousands
of out-of-school youth nationwide relative to the earnings of young peo-
ple from similar backgrounds and demographics who were not enrolled.
These programs are based on the view, widely held among practitioners,
that paid work motivates young people to remain in programs and also
generates opportunities for “contextual learning” that are not often avail-
able in the classroom.
For those who enter postsecondary education, our primary challenge
is to reduce the enormous rates of noncompletion that prevail today, espe-
cially among the disadvantaged (Haskins, Holzer, and Lerman 2009).
Many initiatives have been funded by the Gates Foundation and others—
such as Achieving the Dream and Breaking Through—at community col-
-1 leges around the country; these initiatives fund the provision of a range of
0 supportive services and new curricula design, as well as efforts to improve
+1
EITC over the past few decades has demonstrated the potential of “make
work pay” programs to raise employment levels while improving earnings
and income among the poor (Meyer and Rosenbaum 2001; Scholz 2007).
The EITC provides a refundable tax credit for workers with low family
incomes—in other words, even those with little or no federal tax liability
receive a tax credit anyway. It is most generous for low-income single
mothers with two or more children, providing a credit of roughly 40 per-
cent for each dollar of earned income up to a maximum of about $13,000.18
The credit is constant over the next $4,000 of income and then is gradually
phased out at a rate of about 20 percent per dollar of income over $17,000.
But while the EITC currently is very generous to custodial parents of chil-
dren, who are usually single mothers, it provides only very meager ben-
efits to childless adults and especially noncustodial parents, who are often
fathers. For this group, maximum benefits are only $475 per year.19
Accordingly, we have developed proposals to expand the EITC for
childless adults (Edelman et al. 2006; Edelman et al. 2009). Subsidy rates,
at 15 or 20 percent, would be well below the roughly 40 percent now avail-
able to low-income parents with custody of their children, but much more
generous than they are today for childless adults. Special provisions would
be needed to avoid large “marriage penalties” among pairs of workers
who are individually eligible for the EITC but whose combined incomes
would reduce or eliminate such eligibility; efforts would also need to be
made for noncustodial fathers to receive payments, even those in arrears
on their current support orders.20
More broadly, efforts to “make work pay” could have substantial positive
effects not only on parents but on poor children as well. The best evidence of
these potential positive effects can be found in the New Hope pilot program
in Milwaukee, which provided a set of wage supplements and guaranteed
benefits for those who accepted low-wage jobs, as well as public-service jobs
for those who could not find a job in the private sector. The program signifi-
cantly improved employment outcomes among adult participants during
the period of the program and even for a few years afterwards, while also
generating improved schooling and behavior outcomes among their chil-
dren (Duncan, Huston, and Weisner 2007). Efforts to scale up this program
and to test the replicability of its positive effects deserve support.
for youth in the short term, while the effects of the Great Recession remain
pronounced; and efforts to improve the quantity or quality of the jobs
available to disadvantaged youth in the longer term.
Efforts to stimulate demand in the short term could include various
kinds of subsidized private or public employment and grants for building
schools and infrastructure and preserving state and local public jobs, as
well as tax credits for private-sector employers who hire more workers.
Indeed, the American Jobs Act proposed by the Obama administration in
2011contained most of these ideas in various forms, but given the political
polarization and deadlock that have characterized the federal government
in the past few years, virtually none have been implemented as of mid-
2013, and it seems unlikely that they will be implemented anytime soon.
The recent success of the Emergency Contingency Fund under the
Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program, which created
about 250,000 jobs in the public and private sectors for the disadvantaged
within a short time frame (Lower-Basch 2011), illustrates the potential of
subsidized employment. More generally, public-service employment pro-
grams that are carefully designed and well targeted toward those in need
can not only raise employment rates in the short term but generate valued
services for communities as well (Ellwood and Welty 2000; Johnson 2010).
Ideal, but hardly practicable in the current fiscal and political climate,
would be a large-scale initiative (building on Americorps and other efforts
ranging back to the New Deal) to engage young people in transitional
employment in community and national service, with particular empha-
sis on youth who are disconnected or at risk of becoming disconnected.
They could be engaged in work on infrastructure, caregiving, conservation
projects, and numerous other possibilities. The work could be combined
with education and training so that participants would emerge far more
prepared for successful transitions to either work or additional education.
The case for building schools and infrastructure in particular is strong;
such work would contribute to a quicker recovery of employment in the
construction sector while making much-needed improvements to capital
that has been deteriorating. Although of the many trained construction
workers who are now unemployed would be the most obvious workers
to benefit, opportunities to develop apprenticeships for disadvantaged
youth would also be available. More broadly, publicly funded apprentice-
ships, work-study programs, and other forms of on-the-job training are
good ways to combine short-term work experience with longer-term skill
and credential improvements that increase the earnings capacities of the
disadvantaged over time.
-1 Tax credits to private employers who create more jobs could also ben-
0 efit youth to a large extent. The best design for such credits would be a
+1
the totality of youth policy, but education and employment outcomes are
significantly related to everything else.
The story of youth policy since President Obama took office is mixed—
in part because the new administration has offered fewer proposals than
expected, and in part because of the remarkable partisan hostility that has
been even more pronounced than anticipated.
In 2008–2009, we developed some policy proposals that included
many of the ideas described in this chapter (Edelman et al. 2009). In the
broadest sense, our hope was that there would be a new partnership for
disadvantaged youth that cut across all relevant federal agencies, but
especially the U.S. Department of Education and the U.S. Department of
Labor. The salient characteristic of this partnership, as we have argued
here, would have been bringing the worlds of education and employment
closer together for those young people who would benefit from such a
connection. The continuum would begin in high school and continue
through adolescence into young adulthood and stable attachment to the
labor market.
For the school- and community college–based portion of the contin-
uum, our idea was that the Department of Education would play the lead
role, in part because its fiscal capacity dwarfs the resources commanded
by the Department of Labor, which we envisioned as using its funds to
play a role in organizing and promoting the employer side of the partner-
ship. And we saw the Labor Department playing the larger role in serving
those young people who were both out of school and not employed, to
get them back into some kind of setting with educational content as well
as preparation for work. Overall, our proposals would have provided sig-
nificant new resources to this issue, with an emphasis on replicating and
scaling the best recent models of both programs and systems for youth
and with the full set of complementary policies described here.
The partnership and policy as we envisioned it did not develop. Bits and
pieces of the needed policies happened in the Department of Education—
through Race to the Top, the community college initiative that fell short of
full fruition, and, very modestly, through the Promise Neighborhoods pro-
gram. And some of these policies were put in place at the Department of
Labor through its innovation funds and other competitive grants, though
changes in youth policy more broadly have been caught up in the snail’s
pace of reauthorization of the Workforce Investment Act.
Finally, we note again that a range of efforts could have been under-
taken to raise job creation rates in the aftermath of the Great Recession
and to target them toward disadvantaged youth. But political polarization
-1 and paralysis at the federal level, as well as the dismal fiscal situations
0 in which states and localities have found themselves, have prevented the
+1
Notes
1. These computations are drawn from the outgoing rotation groups of the
Current Population Survey (CPS-ORG). We thank Marek Hlavac for generat-
ing this table for us.
2. Though part of this decline might represent the fact that the average skill lev-
els of those who remain non-enrolled are likely to fall as enrollment rates rise,
this does not appear to explain the overall trend (Holzer and Offner 2006).
3. Employment rates for less-educated young men calculated using the stan-
dard definitions of labor force participation and overall enrollment show
greater declines since 1979 among blacks than whites (Holzer and Offner
2006). Furthermore, the incarcerated are generally not included in measures
of the “non-institutional population” that are calculated from CPS data, and -1
low-income men tend to be undercounted more generally even when not 0
+1
11. For instance, David Autor (2010) usually defines middle-skill jobs—many of
them good-paying production and clerical jobs for high school graduates—as
those whose average occupational wages as of 1980 were in the middle of the
wage spectrum. Though jobs in these particular categories have shrunken
dramatically in number, other categories of jobs for technicians and moder-
ately skilled employees in many sectors have grown over time in ways that
are not well captured by these data. Although these middle-skill job catego-
ries shrank significantly during the Great Recession, especially in construc-
tion and manufacturing, we believe that at least a significant portion of these
jobs will return when the labor market recovers.
12. Using longitudinal micro data on both employers and workers from the Lon-
gitudinal Employer Household Dynamics (LEHD) data at the Census Bureau,
Holzer and his colleagues (2011) were able to measure both worker and firm
quality over time and how workers of different skills are matched to jobs of
different quality in various years.
13. For a review of efforts to reduce high school dropout rates or to recover drop-
outs, see Tyler and Lofstrom (2010).
14. Sheila Maguire and her colleagues (2010) report very strong evidence on the
success of sectoral training programs for working poor adults, though youth
participated in these programs to some extent as well. These researchers
found that earnings were about $4,000 higher for a randomly assigned par-
ticipant group than for controls, up to twenty-four months after the training
began. Ann Roder and Mark Elliott’s (2011) estimated impacts for Year Up,
based on randomized control trials, were similar in magnitude.
15. Unfortunately, the residential component of the program also makes it quite
expensive, with annual costs of approximately $20,000 per participant.
16. For descriptions of citywide efforts to help youth in several major cities in the
United States, see Martin and Halperin (2006).
17. Evidence on the positive labor supply elasticities of the disadvantaged is
summarized in Katz (1998).
18. Maximum dollar amounts of the credit were just over $5,200 for families with
two children and just over $5,800 for those with three or more in 2012.
19. This maximum represents a tax credit of 7.6 percent on earned income up to
$6,250 per year.
20. See Edelman et al. (2009) for discussions of both sets of issues. The marriage
penalty could be lessened by counting only half of the lower earner’s income
when calculating total income for purposes of eligibility. NCPs who are cur-
rently paying support and whose previous child support debts (or “arrears”)
are being “managed” (as discussed later in the chapter) would be eligible to
keep their EITC payments.
21. For instance, arrest rates among CEO participants in the second year fol- -1
lowing program entry were about five percentage points lower (23 versus 0
+1
28 percent) than among control group members. The fact that employment
effects faded more quickly than recidivism effects suggests that the transi-
tional jobs and other services did not transmit lasting improvements in work-
place skills that were valued by the labor market, but these jobs and services
may have influenced personal motivation or social networks in ways that
improved behavioral outcomes.
22. The state of New York was one of the first to make noncustodial fathers pay-
ing child support eligible for the EITC. But take-up rates have been very low,
owing to the fact that those in arrears will have any such additional payments
garnished. The need to combine EITC eligibility with arrears management and
default orders adjustment is clearly illustrated in the New York experience.
23. The WOTC, which replaced the earlier Targeted Jobs Tax Credit (TJTC), pro-
vides tax credits for up to a year for the hiring of workers from a range of spe-
cific disadvantaged populations, such as ex-offenders and long-term welfare
recipients. But take-up rates are generally low, as employers seem to be either
unaware or uninterested in the credits, apparently preferring to pay more for
employees whom they expect to perform well on their jobs. These credits can
also create windfalls for employers who simply hire the same workers with
or without the credits. Hamersma (2011) shows that impacts on the employ-
ment of current and former welfare recipients while the credit is in effect
are very modest and that they disappear once individual eligibility for the
credits expire.
24. For some recent evidence on the extent to which minimum wage increases
might reduce employment among the young, see Neumark and Wascher
(2009). A more sanguine view, arguing that the evidence of falling employ-
ment in response to minimum wage increases is quite thin, appears in earlier
work by Card and Krueger (1997).
25. If anything, even the modest reductions in employment that might be gener-
ated if union wage increases were not offset by productivity increases might
hurt youth the most, as they are the most marginal workers in any setting.
26. These include many sectoral training programs, such as those run by Local
1199c in health care and Project Quest in San Antonio, where intermediaries
help employers build career ladders and pathways and invest more in train-
ing frontline workers for better jobs on these pathways.
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0
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David Weil
and paid by that company. Today many workers receive a paycheck from
a labor supplier and are managed by the personnel of a large logistics com-
pany, but follow the detailed operating standards of the nationally known
retailer or consumer brand serviced by the facility. And whereas IBM in
its ascendency directly employed workers to produce its computers, from
designers and engineers to the people on the factory floor, Apple, now our
economy’s most highly valued company, directly employs only 63,000 of
the more than 750,000 workers globally responsible for designing, selling,
manufacturing, and assembling its products.
Many of the industries we associate with low wages, precarious employ-
ment, high rates of violation of basic labor standards, and dangerous work-
ing conditions are also the industries in which fissuring is most advanced.1
These include eating and drinking businesses, janitorial services, many
sectors of manufacturing, residential construction, and services. But fissur-
ing also has spread to industries in retailing, the telecommunications and
IT sectors, hospitals, and business services. In fact, employment fissuring
represents an organizational format that has spread across many sectors of
the economy and assumes many different forms.
Fissured employment has three fundamental impacts on society. First,
moving employment from lead employers to other businesses providing
services for them has repercussions for how wages are set and economic
surplus is shared. Gains once shared between lead businesses and their
workforce have shifted increasingly to investors and in some cases con-
sumers. Wage stagnation and the worsening nature of work for many can
be seen as a consequence of this change.
Second, shifting employment outward necessitates changes in how work
is coordinated. Problems arise when there are many hands in a kitchen and
inadequate oversight. So too in the workplace. As fissured employment
blurs lines of responsibility and liability (intentionally so in some cases),
oversight of important activities like health and safety may fall through
the cracks. In the worst cases, breakdowns in lines of responsibility lead
to workplace fatalities, as seen in petrochemicals, coal mining, cell towers,
and manufacturing.
Finally, fissuring’s third impact on society has been to undermine com-
pliance with labor standards. Fissuring creates “orbits” of subsidiary busi-
nesses revolving around a central lead company. Competition is intense
in each orbit—and often becomes more so the further out the orbit is from
the lead business. Since competition is often price-based, the pressure to
reduce costs becomes intense, leading these subsidiary businesses to lower
wages, allow more precarious employment conditions, and, in many cases, -1
subvert or even violate workplace laws and labor standards. 0
+1
standards that provide the blueprint for the enterprises at lower levels to
follow. But detailed standards are not enough: the lead organization must
also create contracts or develop organizational structures that allow it to
monitor the affiliated companies and impose real costs if they fail to abide
by them.
It is not coincidental, then, that the growth of fissuring has been accom-
panied by the creation of many different forms of standard setting and
monitoring, from the promulgation of bar codes, electronic standards, GPS,
and other methods of tracking products through supply chains and the
monitoring of the provision of services to customers (Baker and Hubbard
2003). At the same time, organizational forms that were once restricted to
a few industries like fast food, such as franchising, have become omni-
present, spanning sectors from janitorial and landscaping services to home
health care (see generally Blair and Lafontaine 2005).
Taken together, these elements of fissuring have created a model for
industries—and for an overall economy—that is wired differently from the
model it has gradually replaced. Large corporations, where value creation,
market power, and notably employment were concentrated, dominated
the economic system for much of the twentieth century. The fissured econ-
omy still is powerfully affected by the large corporation, with this concen-
tration of value creation and economic power. But employment now has
been split off; shifted to a range of secondary players that function in more
competitive markets, and separated from the locus of value creation.
The Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) defines an employee as “any indi-
vidual who is employed by an employer” and as someone whose “employ
includes to suffer or permit to work.” This obscure phrase offers perhaps
the broadest definition of employee of any federal statute. It goes beyond
the definition offered by the common law focus on the degree of actual
control of the employee. Instead, courts have noted that the phrase “to suf-
fer or permit” implies that even an employer’s broad knowledge of the
working being done on its behalf is sufficient to establish a relationship.
Given the wide latitude implied by this definition, courts have applied
an economic reality test to evaluate the particular economic situation sur-
rounding a worker and employer or employers. Although the language
makes possible interpretations that capture the complexities of the mod-
ern workplace, courts have historically tended to hew to relatively narrow
definitions of employment.8
At the other end of the spectrum, the National Labor Relations Act
(NLRA), the federal statute governing union organizing and collective bar-
gaining, uses a restrictive definition and a narrow economic reality test for
defining employment that adheres more closely to common law notions.
Originally, the Supreme Court, in ruling on the NLRA’s employer-employee
definitions, deferred to the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB). In NLRB
v. Hearst Publications Inc., the Court explicitly stated that the employment
definition was not confined to common law definitions but could legiti-
mately look to whether “as a matter of economic fact, to the evils the Act
was designed to eradicate.” In this particular case, the Court upheld an
NLRB ruling that “newsies” (boys who sold newspapers in the street on
commission) were in fact employees of the Hearst publishing empire,
despite Hearst’s contention that they were formally independent contrac-
tors who purchased papers from Hearst but sold them on their own as
“entrepreneurs.” The NLRB decision and Supreme Court affirmation of
it led enraged conservatives in Congress to amend the NLRA in 1947 to
specifically exempt independent contractors.9 This moved the NLRB and
the courts to apply the tests for employment created by common law in
deciding on issues of coverage under the act.10
The Occupational Safety and Health Act (OSHA) of 1970 defines an
“employer” as “a person engaged in a business affecting commerce who
has employees.” The act requires that an employer “shall furnish to each
of his employees employment and a place of employment which are free
from recognized hazards that are causing or are likely to cause death or
serious physical harm to his employees.”11 Although this definition of
employer reflects the act’s focus on ensuring that safe conditions prevail
-1 in the workplace, it creates obvious problems in that, with the many forms
0 of fissuring, the party that creates the conditions of work might not actu-
+1
ally have “employees.” For example, AT&T does not directly employ cell
tower maintenance workers (although it once did, before the demand for
iPhones exponentially expanded the need for cell tower capacity), but
uses multiple layers of subcontractors to undertake this work. As a result,
fatality rates on AT&T cell towers and those of other carriers are ten times
the level of those for construction in general.12
Other federal and state statutes offer their own definitions of employment
that are similarly rooted in common law definitions of agency, but tailored
to the particular aims of the statutes. For a large swath of employment in
the economy, subtle definitions did not matter much for many decades: it
was relatively clear who the employer was and who the employee was, and
the boundaries of the firm were equally clear. The more the workplace has
fissured, however, the more the subtleties presented by the common law
and the specific definitions embodied in statutes have come to matter. In
effect, what was at one time located at the edges of legal disputes regarding
either idiosyncratic occupations (newsies) or historically fissured industries
(construction and garments) has become a mainstream problem of employ-
ment; as a result, the subtleties of these statutes are more central to achiev-
ing the objectives of workplace laws.13
This is a company that owns all its locations, not an affiliation of inde- -1
pendents; it is one company that can deliver consistently and on time. . . . 0
+1
Nations Roof does not support separate and redundant overhead in multiple
locations and business unit presidents are highly motivated owner-partners
in the company.
as its website describes its role as ensuring the delivery of services “consis-
tently and on time”). The agreement therefore rebalances the relationship
of lead and affiliate organizations in a way that favors greater scrutiny of
activities at the construction work site so as to promote better health and
safety outcomes.22
and wages. In settling the case, the company agreed to pay all back wages
due and committed to future FLSA compliance.25
More importantly, in both cases TimeWarner Cable instructed its con-
tracted units to reclassify cable installers as FLSA-covered employees and
to comply with the act. Although TimeWarner did not bring this work
back within the walls of the company, it did exert its powerful role at the
head of this telecommunication system to alter the behavior of key players
at the secondary levels of the industry.
Notes
1. See, for example, Osterman and Shulman (2011), Kalleberg (2011), Bernhardt
et al. (2009), and Milkman (2008). More popular accounts can be found in
Bobo (2011), Greenhouse (2008), and Ehrenreich (2001).
2. This section summarizes a much larger analysis of the roots, mechanisms,
and consequences of fissuring by the author. The complete discussion is con-
tained in Weil (forthcoming).
3. For early academic discussion of core competency, see Prahalad and Hamel
(1990), who discussed the idea with respect to the changing fortune of com-
panies in the high-tech sector of the 1980s.
4. As the social scientists Sidney Webb and Beatrice Webb (1897, 281) pointed out
at the turn of the last century, “The most autocratic and unfettered employer
spontaneously adopts Standard Rates for classes of workmen, just as the large
shopkeeper fixes his prices, not according to the haggling capacity of particu-
lar customers, but by a definite percentage on cost.” Ernst Fehr and Klaus
Schmidt (2007) argue that this is fundamentally related to fairness consider-
ations in wage-setting. The impact of fairness concerns on wage determina-
tion in large firms from the 1960s to the late 1980s is documented by Fred
Foulkes (1980) and Truman Bewley (1999). Empirical evidence is also consis-
tent with findings about this impact. The well-established premium paid by
larger employers that is not explained by skills, education, or productivity dif-
ferences between workers is consistent with the impact of wage-setting done
“inside” versus “outside” firm boundaries (see Brown, Hamilton, and Medoff
1989), as well as with the diminishing size of the premium over time in recent
years (Hollister 2004). Recent studies also show that wages for particular jani-
torial and security jobs are higher when set inside firms than when set by
contractors to those firms (see Abraham and Taylor 1996; Berlinski 2008; Dube
and Kaplan 2010). I develop this argument in detail in Weil (forthcoming).
5. The tension between fair pay and conditions for workers and low prices for
consumers is certainly not a new issue. At the turn of the last century, B. L.
-1 Hutchins and Amy Harrison (1926, xii) described this tension as it played
0 out in the passage of early factory legislation in England: “Unfortunately, in
+1
the absence of regulation, the evil tends to increase and the sweated trades to
spread. In the all-pervading competition of the modern world market, each
industry is perpetually struggling against every other industry to maintain
and to improve its position . . . tempting the consumer by cheapness continu-
ally to increase his demand for its commodities, inducing the investor by swol-
len profits to divert more and more of the nation’s capital in its direction, and
attracting, by large salaries, more and more the nation’s brains to its service.”
6. This section does not attempt to provide a detailed analysis of the statutory,
judicial, or academic writing in this area, nor even to provide a basic over-
view. Instead, it simply seeks to paint an overall picture that the definitions of
employment relationships are grounded. Excellent discussions can be found
in Davidov (2006) and in other essays from the same edited volume (Davidov
and Langille 2006), as well as in the legal writing cited later in this section.
7. The multi-factor test of whether an individual is an employee or an indepen-
dent contractor examines attributes of the relationship, including the extent
of control exercised by the principal; whether the agent is in a distinct occupa-
tion or business; whether the type of work involved is generally done under
the direction of employers elsewhere; the degree of skill required for the
work; whether the agent supplies his or her own tools; the length of employ-
ment; the method of payment (by time or by job); and whether the work is
part of the regular business of the employer. As Micah Jost (2011) and others
have pointed out, the seeming precision of the multi-factor test evaporates in
practice where the different factors must be weighed against one another in
deciding on the presence of a legitimate employment relationship.
8. See Fair Labor Standards Act, 29 U.S.C. §§ 201–19 (1994). The Supreme Court in
its Rutherford Food Corp. v. McComb decision (331 U.S. 722 [1947] at 728–29)
affirmed the idea of a broad definition given that the FLSA “contains its own
definitions comprehensive enough to require its application to many persons
and working relationships which, prior to this Act, were not deemed to fall
within an employer-employee category.” This still leaves a great deal of room
for applying the economic reality test. For example, the Sixth Circuit Court
applied such a test to conclude that migrant pickle workers were excluded from
FLSA coverage because of the temporary nature of their employment relation-
ship, farmers’ “lack of control” over migrant workers given that they were paid
on a piece-rate basis, and the skill of those workers (Donovan v. Brandel, 736
F.2d 1114 [6th Cir. 1984]). In 1987, however, the Sixth Circuit Court reached an
opposite result with similar case facts in Secretary of Labor v. Lauritzen, 835
F.2d 1529 (6th Cir. 1987). See Goldstein et al. (1999) and Ruckelshaus (2008)
for detailed discussions of the employer-employee definition under the FLSA.
9. NLRB v. Hearst Publications, Inc., 322 U.S. 111 (1944). The case was the basis
of Newsies, a Disney movie, play, and, most recently, Broadway musical. -1
Undoubtedly, more high school students have been exposed to a memorable 0
+1
of 2009. The history of the political coalitions necessary to pass these laws
provides insight into how to pass legislation in the future. On the passage of
social legislation generally, see Skocpol (1992), and on workplace policies in
particular, see Fishback and Kantor (2000), Fishback (2007), Bernhardt et al.
(2008), and Weil (2008).
16. Alternatively, in an industry like residential construction, greater attention
should be paid to systemic violations among contractors working under
the umbrella of a national home-builder, which typically employs a minimal
number of construction workers directly but rather contracts and subcontracts
work. The enforcement strategy could focus investigations on contractors to
look for patterns of violations; if violations are present, investigations could
widen to include the home-builder’s division or, if more wide-scale viola-
tions are uncovered, multiple divisions of projects undertaken by the home-
builder’s national office.
17. For example, MinWoong Ji and David Weil (2012) find significantly higher
back wage violations among particular brands in the fast-food sector, even
after statistically holding constant other factors that might also explain non-
compliance. In particular, compared to typical McDonald’s outlets (which
had the best overall compliance record among the top twenty branded com-
panies studied), Subway, Domino’s Pizza, and Popeye’s Chicken were all
found to owe back wages that were substantially higher.
18. Even more, the top five home-builders accounted for much more than one-
third of single-family homes built in major metropolitan markets like Las
Vegas, Houston, and Dallas at the peak of the building boom in 2005 and
2006. See Abernathy et al. (2012) for a discussion of the emergence of national
home-builders in the years leading up to the housing bust.
19. See Secretary of Labor v. Nations Roof of New England, LLC, and Nations Roof
LLC, Occupational Safety and Health Review Commission, docket 10-1674,
region 1, inspection 311593180, December 3, 2010.
20. The following terms are taken from the settlement agreement reached between
representatives of Nations Roof of New England, LLC, and Nations Roof
LLC and the U.S. Solicitor of Labor. See Secretary of Labor v. Nations Roof of
New England, LLC, and Nations Roof LLC, docket 10-1674, region 1, inspec-
tion 311593180, Settlement Agreement, July 28, 2011. The full settlement is
available at http://op.bna.com/env.nsf/id/jstn-8lbru3/$File/NationsRoof.pdf
(accessed September 2013).
21. The agreement also stipulates that the designated safety and health director at
each affiliate spend at minimum one-third of his or her time on safety and
health activities.
22. OSHA, in conjunction with the Solicitor’s Office of the U.S. Department of
Labor, has signed a series of corporate-wide agreements since 2010. A com -1
pendium of them can be found at: http://www.osha.gov/pls/oshaweb/owasrch. 0
+1
search_form?p_doc_type=CWSA&p_toc_level=0&p_keyvalue=&p_status=
CURRENT (accessed February 16, 2013).
23. See U.S. Department of Labor, Wage and Hour Division, “News Release: Judge
Rules Ohio-Based Cascom Employees Misclassified as Independent Contractors,
Denied Overtime Pay in Suit Brought by U.S. Labor Department,” October 4,
2011, available at: www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/whd/WHD20111425.htm
(accessed November 15, 2011); and Bill Pokorny, “Cable Installers Employ-
ees, Not Independent Contractors,” Wage & Hour Insights, October 10, 2011,
available at: http://www.wagehourinsights.com/independent-contractors/court-
cable-installers-employees-not-independent-contractors/ (accessed November
15, 2011).
24. The U.S. District Court held in favor of the Department of Labor’s position that
the 250 installers were in fact employees and not independent contractors. As
a result, they were entitled to overtime pay for their work, amounting to over
$800,000 and an equal amount of liquidated damages (also paid to the affected
workers). See Solis v. Cascom Inc. et al., Civil Action No. 3:09-CV-00257, U.S.
District Court, Southern District of Ohio, Western Division at Dayton. See gen-
erally General Accountability Office (2009).
25. See U.S. Department of Labor, Wage and Hour Division, “Cable Installers
in Plano, Texas, to Receive More Than $270,000 in Overtime Back Wage Fol-
lowing U.S. Labor Department Investigation,” press release 11-484-DAL,
May 16, 2011.
26. The DOL-Timesheet app is available via Apple iTunes; see: http://itunes.
apple.com/us/app/ dol-timesheet/id433638193?mt=8.
27. For more on the Labor Department’s development contest, and on the “Eat/
Shop/Sleep” app, see: http://informaction.challenge.gov/ submissions/4585-eat-
shop-sleep (accessed February 16, 2013).
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Theory and Evidence.” Journal of Labor Economics 14(3): 394–424.
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tique of Vicarious Liability.” In Exploring Tort Law, ed. Stuart Madden. New
York: Cambridge University Press.
Baker, George, and Thomas Hubbard. 2003. “Make Versus Buy in Trucking: Asset
Ownership, Job Design, and Information.” American Economic Review (Septem-
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0 Hold?” British Journal of Industrial Relations 46(1): 59–75.
+1
Bernhardt, Annette, Heather Boushey, Laura Dresser, and Chris Tilly. 2008. The
Gloves-Off Economy: Workplace Standards at the Bottom of America’s Labor Market.
Champaign, Ill.: University of Illinois for the Labor and Employment Relations
Association.
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Harvard University Press.
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-1
0
+1
Jennifer Gordon
Manning, and Wadsworth 2006, 17–18, 27–28; Shierholz, 2010 3). With
regard to natives, a negative impact on wages appears more likely in local-
ized areas that are newly experiencing immigration and in occupations
where native workers tend to have less than a high school education and
the immigrants in question are guest workers or undocumented workers
(Gentsch and Massey 2011, 891; Shierholz 2010, 19). In these contexts, it is
urgent to understand the impact of immigration status and other immi-
gration laws on immigrant workers’ rights and their ability to access the
workplace protections available to them.
The interaction between immigration law and access to workplace rights
is complex. Both temporary legal migrants and the undocumented share
many rights with U.S. workers—on paper. Indeed, most temporary labor
migration programs require that employers pay a higher rate than the
applicable minimum wage, and they offer migrants benefits and guaran-
tees not provided to workers hired through the local labor market.4 For
their part, the undocumented are technically covered by the minimum
wage and overtime protections of the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA),5
the safe and healthy workplace provisions of the Occupational Safety and
Health Act (OSHA) (Smith et al. 2007, 12), in most federal courts by antidis-
crimination laws,6 and in most states by workers’ compensation programs
for on-the-job injury.7 Although in the 2002 Hoffman Plastics Compounds
case the Supreme Court denied undocumented immigrants back pay or
reinstatement if they are fired for supporting a union in violation of the
National Labor Relations Act (NLRA), it explicitly reiterated that undocu-
mented individuals are “employees” covered by that act and are permit-
ted to form and join unions.8
Nonetheless, both legal temporary labor migrants and undocumented
immigrants face numerous practical impediments to exercising these rights.
Southern Poverty Law Center (2007, 15–16 passim) reports numerous cases
of serious abuse in both H-2A and H-2B programs, including employers
that explicitly seek to deter workers by threatening to report to immigra-
tion authorities those who stand up for their rights. Lawsuits over the past
few years on behalf of tree planters, traveling fair workers, welders, and
others have alleged that guest workers suffered grave abuses, including
economic deprivation, serious injuries, threats of retaliation, and in some
cases trafficking, captivity, and forced labor.9 In all cases, workers faced
the loss of their visa if they were fired after coming forward to complain.
model, some employers seek to subcontract only the most recent group of
migrants, favoring them over newcomers with a few years of experience;
see MacKenzie and Forde [2009, 142].) In the United Kingdom, where the
government’s approach to the enforcement of basic workplace protections
is frequently characterized as balkanized, underfunded, and ineffective,
violations of basic laws are commonplace and frequently go undetected by
regulators (Pollert 2008, 225; Holgate et al. 2010; Trades Union Congress
Commission on Vulnerable Employment 2008, 40; Poinasamy 2011, 22).
While one antidote might be an effective complaint-based system or pri-
vate enforcement of the law, non-union workers in the United Kingdom
(a group in which immigrants, including A8s, are overrepresented) have
few sources of support in bringing workplace claims to the government’s
attention—and little hope of prevailing without that assistance (Anderson,
Clark, and Parutis 2007, 3; Markova and Black 2008, 29; Tailby et al. 2009).
Nonetheless, low-wage A8 migrants in the United Kingdom appear to
have faced obstacles to enforcing their rights even beyond those encoun-
tered by native workers. Obvious impediments include their lack of lan-
guage skills and their unfamiliarity with U.K. law, labor markets, and
institutions (Gordon 2011, 8). The negative role played by private recruit-
ment agencies, which employ up to 50 percent of A8 migrants in the
United Kingdom (Blanchflower and Lawton 2008, 5), also appears to be
an important contributing factor. Agency practices encourage—indeed, in
many cases require—applicants to work below their level of training and
education. Common agency abuses include overcharging, dubious lend-
ing practices, and inaccurate promises about placements. Agencies limit
migrant mobility by making placements in isolated areas and by foment-
ing the fear among agency workers that if they pursue their rights they
will be fired or denied future placements (Gordon 2011, 8–9).
Also notable is the fact that despite the full EU citizenship of A8 migrants
and their ostensible mobility and equal access to workplace rights, there
appear to have been fewer organizing successes to date among this popula-
tion in the United Kingdom than among guest workers and undocumented
immigrants in the United States, despite the much less favorable legal envi-
ronment that the latter face. Although unions in the United Kingdom have
sought to reach out to A8 and other migrant workers and have experi-
mented with approaches ranging from creating a migrant workers branch
to hiring organizers from Polish unions to creating a short-term internal
“migrant worker support unit,” migrants do not appear to have joined
U.K. unions in significant numbers (Fitzgerald and Hardy 2010, 139, 145;
Gumbrell-McCormick 2011). Several union staff and leaders whom I inter-
-1 viewed in 2010 attribute this to the fact that U.K. union membership rules
0 and structures do not correspond to the reality of A8 migrant life, in that
+1
have been attentive to and willing to spend political capital on the defense
of undocumented workers in the face of employers’ efforts to use their
lack of status as a pretext for firing them.25
Meanwhile, worker centers have grown in number, from five in 1992
to an estimate of over two hundred nationwide in 2011 (Fine 2011, 607,
615). Such centers have been key actors in many of the victories involving
undocumented workers over the past two decades. They deploy a range
of strategies, from education and outreach to legal and policy advocacy to
membership-based organizing, to support low-wage, largely immigrant
workers. The greatest successes of worker centers have been in the policy
arena. For example, the New York City–based Domestic Workers United
succeeded in passing the historic New York “Domestic Workers’ Bill of
Rights” in 2010, and it and fellow member organizations of the National
Domestic Workers Alliance (NDWA) played a critical role in the 2011
adoption by the International Labor Organization (ILO) of the “Conven-
tion Concerning Decent Work for Domestic Workers.” Worker centers
have also had successes in raising wages and improving working condi-
tions in specific workplaces. One illustration here is the work of the Res-
taurant Opportunities Center (ROC-NY), founded in New York and now
part of a national network of such centers. ROC-NY has targeted high-
end restaurants in Manhattan for protest and litigation regarding wage
theft, and has succeeded in winning settlement agreements that include
paid breaks, access to training and promotions, and grievance resolution
mechanisms (Fine 2006, 16–18; Fine 2011, 609, 613–14, 616; Ashar 2007,
1881; Jayaraman 2005).
In recent years, a number of worker centers have moved from a purely
local focus to a regional or national outlook. Several centers have opened
branches in new cities, and national networks have emerged. The National
Day Labor Organizing Network, the National Domestic Worker Alliance,
the Restaurant Opportunity Center-United, and the International Taxi
Workers Alliance are prominent examples. Most recently, the United Work-
ers Congress was founded by a coalition of those networks and additional
unions and organizations to put forward an affirmative agenda to demand
the right for all workers to organize (Fine 2011; Goldberg and Jackson 2011,
54–59).26 These networks, as well as a few individual centers, have also
formed alliances with the AFL-CIO, SEIU, LIUNA (Laborers International
Union of North America), and other unions.27
Beyond undocumented workers, guest workers—long thought to
be unorganizable because of their temporariness and the vulnerability
induced by the tie between their visas and particular employers—have also
been successful in organizing for better conditions, despite the restrictions -1
attached to their visas. With the support of a few unions and worker centers— 0
+1
members while they are at home, and it has also functionally taken on
some of the roles played by labor contractors under the terms of the agree-
ment (Gordon 2007, 574–76; Hill 2008).
FLOC and NGA offer two models for raising workplace standards for
the most vulnerable immigrant workers.
Notes
1. Immigration and Nationality Act § 203(b)(3) (2006).
2. The figure varies by year; the 200,000 to 300,000 annual number reflects
admissions under H-2A and H-2B visas for the past three fiscal years.
3. Foreign-born workers as a whole make up 15.9 percent of the U.S. labor force
(U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2012). In other words, the
undocumented make up about one-third of the immigrant workforce. This is in
slightly greater proportion to their representation in the immigrant population
as a whole, a number recently estimated at 28 percent (Passel and Cohn 2011, 9).
4. For example, the H-2A program requires that employers pay whatever is
higher: the adverse effect wage rate (AEWR), the applicable prevailing wage,
or the federal minimum wage; see 8 U.S.C. § 1188(a)(1)(A), (B) (2000); 20 C.F.R.
§ 655.107(b) (2002). In 2012 the AEWR ranged from $9.30 to $12.26 per hour,
depending on the state (U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training
Administration 2011). In all cases the AEWR is higher than the federal mini-
mum wage. The employer must also provide H-2A workers with meals and
housing and must pay the worker for at least three-fourths of the time prom-
ised in the contract, even if there is not enough work to keep the worker busy
during that time (U.S. Department of Labor, Wage and Hour Division 2010).
5. See Patel v. Quality Inn South, 846 F.2d 700, 706 (11th Cir. 1988).
6. See Rivera v. NIBCO, Inc., 364 F.3d 1057 (9th Cir. 2004); Iweala v. Operational
Techs. Servs., 634 F. Supp. 2d 73, 80 (D.D.C. 2009); and Escobar v. Spartan Sec.
Serv., 281 F. Supp. 2d 895, 897 (S.D. Tex. 2003); but see Egbuna v. Time-Life
Libraries, Inc., 153 F.3d 184, 187–88 (4th Cir. 1998).
7. Workers’ compensation for on-the-job injuries suffered by undocumented
immigrants is limited in a few states and under dispute in others, although
most states and the District of Columbia still guarantee coverage to the undocu-
mented. See Visoso v. Cargill Meat Solutions, 778 N.W.2d 504, 511 (Neb. Ct. App.
2009); and Asylum Co. v. Dep’t of Emp’t Servs., 10 A.3d 619, 626 (D.C. 2010);
but see Sanchez v. Eagle Alloy Inc., 658 N.W.2d 510, 519 (Mich. Ct. App. 2003).
8. Hoffman Plastics Compounds v. NLRB, 535 U.S. 137, 152 (2002).
9. Chuck Bartels, “Migrant Forest Workers Get $2.75M Wage Settlement,” Seattle
Times, February 12, 2010; see also U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Com-
mission, “EEOC Files Its Largest Farm Worker Human Trafficking Suit Against
Global Horizons, Farms” (press release), April 20, 2011, available at: http://www.
eeoc.gov/eeoc/newsroom/release/4-20-11b.cfm (accessed September 2013); and
Southern Poverty Law Center (2007).
10. INA § 274(b).
11. In June 2012, ICE for the first time stayed an enforcement action it had initiated
at a workplace with a unionization campaign and a strike under way, consistent
with the revised memorandum of understanding; see Steven Greenhouse and -1
Steven Yaccino, “Fight over Immigrant Firings,” New York Times, July 28, 2012. 0
+1
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Versus the Realities of Employers’ Use and the Experiences of Migrant Work-
ers.” Work, Employment, and Society 23(1): 142–59.
Manacorda, Marco, Alan Manning, and Jonathan Wadsworth. 2006. “The Impact
of Immigration on the Structure of Male Wages: Theory and Evidence from
Britain.” Discussion Paper 2352. Bonn, Germany: Institute for the Study of
Labor (IZA) (October). Available at: ftp://repec.iza.org/RePEc/Discussion
paper/dp2352.pdf (accessed September 2013).
Markova, Eugenia, and Richard Black. 2008. “The Experiences of ‘New’ East
European Immigrants in the U.K. Labour Market.” Journal of Poverty and Social
Justice 16(1): 19–31.
-1 McCollum, David, and Allan Findlay. 2011. “Trends in A8 Migration to the U.K.
0 During the Recession.” Population Trends 145(1, Autumn): 1–13. Available at:
+1
http://www.cpc.ac.uk/resources/downloads/2011%20poptrends145%20A8%20
migration.pdf (accessed September 2013).
Meyerson, Harold. 2001. “A Clean Sweep.” The American Prospect, December 19.
Available at: http://prospect.org/article/clean-sweep (accessed September 2013).
Migration Policy Institute. 2009. “DHS and Immigration: Taking Stock and Correct-
ing Course.” Presentation, February 11. Available at: https://secure.migration
policy.org/images/2009.2.11_Presentation-1.pdf (accessed September 2013).
Milkman, Ruth, ed. 2000. Organizing Immigrants: The Challenge for Unions in Con-
temporary California. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.
———. 2006. L.A. Story: Immigrant Workers and the Future of the U.S. Labor Movement.
New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Milkman, Ruth, Joshua Bloom, and Victor Narro, eds. 2010. Working for Justice: The
L.A. Model of Organizing and Advocacy. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.
Monger, Randall. 2012. “Nonimmigrant Admissions to the United States: 2011.”
Annual Flow Report (July). Washington: U.S. Department of Homeland Secu-
rity. Available at: http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/ni_
fr_2011.pdf (accessed September 2013).
Monger, Randall, and James Yankay. 2012. “U.S. Legal Permanent Residents: 2011.”
Annual Flow Report (April). Washington: U.S. Department of Homeland Secu-
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September 2013).
National Immigration Law Center. 2009. “Issue Brief: Immigration Enforcement
During Labor Disputes.” Available at: http://www.nilc.org/genworkenf.html
(accessed September 2013).
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delphia: Temple University Press.
———. 2011. Guest Workers and Resistance to U.S. Corporate Despotism. Urbana: Uni-
versity of Illinois Press.
Passel, Jeffrey S., and D’Vera Cohn. 2010. “U.S. Unauthorized Immigration Flows
Are Down Sharply Since Mid-Decade.” Washington, D.C.: Pew Hispanic Cen-
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pdf (accessed September 2013).
———. 2011. “Unauthorized Immigrant Population: National and State Trends,
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pewhispanic.org/files/reports/133.pdf (accessed September 2013).
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Discussion paper. Oxford: Oxfam (November). Available at: http://policy-
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in-the-uk-197010 (accessed September 2013). 0
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Cases
Asylum Co. v. Dep’t of Emp’t Servs., 10 A.3d 619 (D.C. 2010)
Chamber of Commerce v. Whiting, 131 S. Ct. 1968 (2011)
Egbuna v. Time-Life Libraries, Inc., 153 F.3d 184 (4th Cir. 1998)
Escobar v. Spartan Sec. Serv., 281 F. Supp. 2d, 895 (S.D. Tex. 2003)
Hoffman Plastics Compounds v. NLRB, 535 U.S. 137 (2002)
Iweala v. Operational Techs. Servs., 634 F. Supp. 2d 73 (D.D.C. 2009)
Patel v. Quality Inn South, 846 F.2d 700 (11th Cir. 1988)
Rivera v. NIBCO, Inc., 364 F.3d 1057 (9th Cir. 2004)
Sanchez v. Eagle Alloy Inc., 658 N.W.2d 510 (Mich. Ct. App. 2003)
Visoso v. Cargill Meat Solutions, 778 N.W.2d 504 (Neb. Ct. App. 2009)
Statutes
8 U.S.C. § 1188(a)(1)(A), (B) (2000)
Immigration and Nationality Act § 203(b)(3) (2006)
Immigration and Nationality Act § 274(b) (2006)
20 C.F.R. § 655.107(b) (2002)
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0
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0
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Paul Osterman
Far too many jobs in the United States fall below the standard that most
people would consider decent work. If we ask only about wages (hence
being conservative by ignoring health insurance, pensions, and other attri-
butes of decent work) and focus only on adults age twenty-five to sixty-
four, then in 2011, 19 percent of adult workers earned an hourly wage
below that necessary (working full-time/full-year) to raise a family of
four above the poverty line of $10.96 an hour.1 This is a very conservative
estimate because it is widely accepted that the poverty line is flawed and
underestimates what it takes to maintain a basic living standard. Indeed, a
recent study that estimated a basic needs budget for a family of four found
that 44 percent of adults fall below the standard (Wider Opportunities for
Women 2011).
One might argue that even for adults, low-wage work is transitory and
a great many will find ways to climb up the ladder into better jobs. How-
ever, the unfortunate fact is that this is not true: most low-wage workers
remain trapped.2 There is also extensive evidence that low incomes have
negative effects on families in terms of the health of the adults and the
educational achievement of the children (Wilkinson and Pickett 2009). In
a deeper sense, people who are scrambling to hold themselves and their
families together economically cannot be fully functioning citizens or par-
ticipants in society.
The extent of bad jobs touches directly on broader challenges. There
is widespread dismay at growing inequality, and while some of this can
be attributed to excesses at the very top, it is clear that any real solution
must address the labor market circumstances of millions of Americans in -1
low-paying work. In addition, middle-class Americans in good jobs are 0
+1
165
confronting the reality of losing work and being forced, if they are lucky,
to take employment in the low-wage labor market. Improving these jobs
is in their interest too.
Standard-setting Programmatic
Make bad Minimum wage Career ladders
jobs good Living wages Intermediaries
Unionization Sectoral programs
be noted that this growth does not prove the argument about comput-
ers. The demand for service occupations could be growing for numerous
reasons, such as the aging of the population and the changing demand for
services. It also seems a bit awkward to argue that people with a college
degree—who reaped huge wage gains in the 1980s and early 1990s—are
suddenly doing routine work and hence experiencing stagnant earnings.
Nonetheless, whatever one thinks of the technological version of the
polarization idea, it is simply not the case that there will be few new job
openings for middle-skill work (Holzer and Lerman 2009). According to
projections by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), only 23 percent of all
job openings projected between 2008 and 2018 will require a college degree
or more (Lacey and Wright 2009). Examples of good jobs that are attainable
with less than a four-year degree include numerous health care technician
jobs, skilled blue-collar work, computer support jobs, truck drivers, bio-
technology technicians, and so on. Other projections suggest that there will
be a substantial number of new jobs available for skilled blue-collar work
(machine maintenance, technicians, repair jobs, and the like) and that these
too require education in the “some college” or associate’s degree range.
The continued importance of middle-skill jobs is also based on projected
hiring to replace the retiring generation of baby boomers. The importance
of this is apparent in table 6.1: even in blue-collar jobs, which in net terms
will grow very slowly or actually decline, there will be considerable hiring
going forward. These projections may be delayed by deferred retirements
caused by the Great Recession, but they cannot be avoided. The bottom line
is that middle-skill openings will be accessible to career ladder initiatives.
firms are hard to find, but table 6.2 tells the basic story. Employees with
low levels of education receive far less training than do their better-
educated colleagues, and in the same vein, low-paid employees receive
much less training than do better-paid workers. These practices represent
savings for employers and to some extent may be reasonable in that work-
ers with low-skill jobs presumably need less training to do their work than
do employees with more complex tasks. However, the paucity of training
also reflects a state of mind—that some workers simply cannot learn and
that improvements in the quality of their work or in their career trajec-
tories are not feasible. Typical is the observation of an evaluation team
that interviewed firms participating in a set of activities organized by the
National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) and aimed at helping them
upgrade their production practices: “Employers knew they had problems
of absenteeism, turnover, skill deficiencies, and low productivity but
accepted them fatalistically as ‘facts of life,’ feeling that not much could be
done about them” (Whiting 2005, 19).
Program models, termed “intermediaries” or “sectoral programs,” vary
along a number of dimensions: target groups, the auspices under which
the programs are managed, and the nature of the services that are pro-
vided. What is striking, however, is that they have also coalesced around a
common set of what might be termed “best practices” elements. It is these
elements that move these innovations beyond the traditional approach
of job training programs and make these new programs distinctive and
important.
The most important of these elements is an understanding that employ-
ment and training efforts work best if they connect effectively to both sides
of the labor market—that is, to employers as well as to clients. To accom- -1
plish this, the programs work hard to become knowledgeable about the 0
+1
human resource needs of their target group of firms and, in some cases,
also seek to understand how they can contribute to the competitive suc-
cess of the firms. In short, these programs attempt to appeal to firms as a
business proposition, not as a charity, public relations, or welfare effort.
The second feature is that best practice programs make substantial
investments in their clients. They reject the quick and dirty training, short-
term investments, and simple job search assistance models that character-
ize much of the traditional employment and training system. The new
programs’ investments take a variety of forms: long training periods,
more sustained involvement with firms, and higher levels of support to
clients in terms of financial assistance and counseling.
There are, however, important differences across the programs. Many
programs rely on community colleges for training and focus their own
efforts on supporting the trainees and working with employers. Other
programs, albeit a minority, have invested in their own training capac-
ity. Program auspices vary and include community groups, unions,
community colleges, employer organizations, and state governments. The
programs also vary in the extent to which they work with incumbent
workers versus job-seekers.
Programs that work with firms to improve the quality of the jobs focus
on two main strategies. The first is redesigning jobs to create career ladders
or to enlarge the content of existing jobs. These strategies imply working
with management to restructure work and provide training and support to
employees so that they can meet the additional responsibilities and move
up in the workplace. The second, simpler approach is to encourage firms
to increase the quantity of training that they make available to lower-paid
employees in the hope that this will lead to career advancement.
Programs in Action
An anchor of the Boston economy is the presence of world-class hospitals
that, taken together, are the largest source of jobs in the region. Add to
these hospitals the numerous nursing homes and other health facilities
and the importance of this sector to the region is obvious. Researchers,
doctors, and highly skilled nurses are central to delivering quality health
care and world-class innovation, but they are not alone. Just as is true
throughout the country, a large low-paid workforce labors at the core of
this industry. These are the kitchen staff, the orderlies, the cleaners, the
certified nursing assistants (CNAs) and patient care technicians (PCTs),
the laundry workers, and many others without whom the system would
-1 break down. These people come from all parts of the world and speak
0 different languages, but they do have some things in common. They work
+1
very hard, and they are poorly paid. Some of the very best examples of
what can be done in cooperation with employers to improve the quality of
jobs can be found in health care.
In the spring of 2010, a graduation was held in the auditorium of Chil-
dren’s Hospital for employees from several hospitals who had just finished
a program supported by the employers and by several foundations and
managed by Jewish Vocational Services (JVS). Some had completed the
final step in their English for speakers of other languages (ESOL) program,
and others had completed a college bridge program aimed at getting
them ready to enter a community college. Attending were the employees,
their families, the program staff, and hospital managers. It was a happy
and proud event, and the most moving talks were given by employees,
who spoke about how hard they had worked, how they could not have
achieved what they had without the program’s support, and the kinds of
jobs or education to which they now aspired. For these people, it was clear
that bad jobs were being transformed into better ones.
Jewish Vocational Services is a large agency that operates a wide range
of education and training programs in the Boston area. It works with the
Russian Jewish immigrant community to facilitate their settling in the area.
It has a program with CVS Pharmacy to help people from the community
obtain entry-level sales jobs and, for the lucky and ambitious, move into
positions like pharmacy technicians. JVS is also beginning to work with
a local community organization with roots in the Haitian community to
establish a college preparatory program for adults. But its largest effort is
aimed at health care employers. The graduation described here was for
employees in multiple hospitals in the area, but JVS also works with nurs-
ing homes, which have an even higher proportion of low-wage workers
because of the nature of the business (largely daily care and maintenance
of elderly residents).
All of the organizations with which JVS collaborates speak highly of
the quality of the agency’s instruction, but our point goes beyond this.
In a variety of ways, JVS has enhanced what might be termed the “edu-
cation and training” culture within the employer workplaces. In part it
accomplishes this by encouraging small but significant changes in poli-
cies, such as when it worked with Children’s Hospital to enable prepay-
ment of tuition assistance, a change that opened up opportunities for
people whose family budgets could not accommodate tuition bills. JVS
also hosts monthly meetings of the human resources staff of all its client
employers in which it diffuses best practices. In some organizations, JVS
has innovated in pedagogy—for example, by shifting its ESOL teaching
away from chalk-and-talk and toward experiential activities. This innova- -1
tion has led to greater success rates, which in turn have encouraged the 0
+1
all of its components, the program served 267 union members in 2007
and 416 in 2008.
The trainings and certificates combined with guidance from a career
coach are intended to create several career tracks within union hotels.
Career pathways were developed by program managers working jointly
with the union and hotel managers to identify competencies and evalu-
ation criteria for different positions within three departments: food and
beverage, guest services, and culinary.
These career pathways are relatively new, and it is too soon to tell
whether they have made an impact on the hotels’ promotion practices. That
said, the program’s atmospherics were good. All of the human resources
managers we spoke with felt that the program has been responsive to
the needs of the hotels. One manager reported that it had “been a win all
around,” with no unforeseen costs. No one felt that it was time-consuming
to work with the program. “The relationship has been far better than any
of us could have imagined,” said one manager.
Programs for incumbent workers in manufacturing have a different feel
than those in hotels or in health care. The focus is less on upward mobility
and more on upgrading the skills of incumbent workers and providing
technical assistance to firms so that they can operate more efficiently. This
latter emphasis is driven by the difficult economic circumstances of manu-
facturing enterprises, which are much more at risk than health care pro-
viders or hotels. Another key difference is that manufacturing programs
focus much more on small and medium-size firms that lack the internal
capacity to think systematically about their human resource needs.
An example of a sustained effort to work with small manufacturers to
improve the training and advancement opportunities of low-wage employ-
ees was the Retention and Advancement Demonstration Program, which
was managed nationally between 2001 and 2004 by the National Associa-
tion of Manufacturers and locally in three states by state-level employers’
associations in Connecticut, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (Whiting 2005).
The associations that worked with the employers were consistently
struck by the poor quality and stressed-out nature of the human resources
(HR) systems they encountered and by the limited expectations that HR
staff and supervisors held out for their entry-level or low-wage workers.
An important part of the effort was an attempt to change both these expec-
tations and these conditions. With respect to the HR systems, a staff person
in one of the business associations commented, “Even though company
managers usually expressed their top priority as skills upgrading, we usu-
ally had to work our way toward the frontline workforce, fixing up various
-1 HR systems along the way. It would do little good, and probably be impos-
0 sible anyway, to mount effective training initiatives if the underlying HR
+1
it remains unclear whether limited demand for career path models across
industry sectors is due to lack of information (i.e. employers are simply unfa-
miliar with the concept and need better/more information about career path
models), lack of time and resources (i.e. employers don’t have the internal
resources to develop and implement the approach) or . . . employer percep-
tions regarding entry-level workers (i.e. employers have difficulty viewing
entry-level workers as future skilled labor). (FutureWorks 2004, 28)
-1 The experience was more positive with respect to training. Both employ-
0 ers and employees were happy to receive additional training resources and
+1
to participate in the programs. It turned out that the level of basic skills
needs was considerably larger than expected, and in the end over half of all
training resources went into ESL and other basic skills subjects (as opposed
to training more directly aimed at job-related skills). The implication was
that even if career paths were created, there was going to be a long haul
involved in moving people up through them. In addition, interviews with
employees showed that many of them were interested in the ESOL and
other basic skills training as a pathway to improving the quality of their
lives and their self-confidence rather than as a way to advance their career.
Taken as a whole, these evaluations should be seen as “existence proofs”
that well-designed programs that work with employers can be effective,
although it is also clear that not all efforts succeed. But it should be remem-
bered that there is a distribution of outcomes for training programs, as
with other policies, and too often the discussion ignores evidence that
success is possible. Rather than giving up, we should learn lessons from
best practices and aspire toward these. This is what has happened in the
charter school debate—a broad range of advocates focus on best practice
cases rather than on the outcomes in the average program—and there is
no reason why the same attitude should not prevail for training low-wage
employees.
Challenges
A core challenge facing intermediary programs is obtaining employer
buy-in. Why should firms want to participate in these programs? The
health care sector provides the clearest case for participation, and hence it
is not surprising that most programs are found in this sector. Health care
providers suffer from high turnover and labor shortages in some of the
technician positions that are often targets of these programs. So employers
should benefit from a higher level of commitment and effort on the part
of their employees, as well as from a lower turnover rate and the associ-
ated reduced costs of recruitment. At the same time, health care providers
are vulnerable to pressure to improve jobs. This is obvious in the case of
employers with union contracts but is also true more generally. Hospitals
and other providers are quasi-public in the sense that even private ones
rely very heavily on public funding and hence are sensitive to pressure.
Their reliance on numerous regulatory decisions also helps make them
responsive to these programs. In addition, the shape of the job structure
means that there are multiple levels of employment—for example, numer-
ous technician jobs—that represent reasonable targets for the upward
advancement of low-wage workers. For these reasons, more career ladder -1
programs can be found in health care than in any other industry. 0
+1
All this said, there has been resistance, arising from broad-based mana-
gerial attitudes. The twin problems are skepticism about training and the
players in the organization—senior management, the human resources
department, program operators, and line supervisors—often not being on
the same page.
An example of managerial skepticism emerged in a conversation with
the head of a nursing home that was part of a chain. This leader worked
with the Philadelphia 1199C program (even though he was non-union);
by creating some career paths, he had reduced turnover of CNAs from
60 percent to 10 percent. Yet despite this success, he was unable to con-
vince his colleagues, the leaders of other nursing homes in the organiza-
tion, to participate. He attributed this failure to inertia and to a lack of
belief in training for this population of employees.
Within the larger non-union hospitals, the sources of resistance tend to
be found in the HR departments and among some line supervisors. The
advocates are senior management, who have a strong interest in com-
munity relations, and the program staff. The HR staff, on the other hand,
are often committed to their own routines of recruitment and assessment,
and supervisors are focused on what is easiest in terms of staffing (which
is often hiring from the outside) as opposed to creating opportunities for
lower-level employees to move up. The puzzle is why senior manage-
ment does not simply insist on cooperation and execution, but the answer
lies in the multiple pressures and interests of top management. While
these leaders appear to have a genuine interest in the programs, they also
confront a myriad of other problems, and forcing their middle manag-
ers out of their routines in order to create career ladders or to expand
training opportunities is often seen as relatively low-priority and disrup-
tive, no matter how much the top management likes the idea in principle.
Hence, the programs remain relatively small-scale in the larger organiza-
tional context.
An additional challenge facing these programs stems from a hard fact
of life: it is difficult for many employees to obtain the education and skills
it takes to move up job ladders in hospitals. Virtually all of the target jobs
require at least a community college–level certificate, and many require a
two-year degree. Set against this is the unfortunate reality that many, if not
most, of the employees with aspirations to move out of low-wage jobs have
something like an eighth-grade educational attainment, and many also face
challenges with English. In addition, employees’ family circumstances can
pose significant obstacles. Put in terms of our earlier discussion, there are
clear human capital challenges as well as organizational and structural bar-
-1 riers, and it is naive to deny or ignore this. As a consequence of these barri-
0 ers, the path from, say, working as a Certified Nursing Assistant to an LPN
+1
or a technician job can take five or more years. This is a long haul, and many
do not make it.
In the study of the Massachusetts manufacturing program mentioned
earlier, a final, and somewhat discouraging, finding was that although
employers expressed satisfaction with the training, they also explicitly
stated that they were satisfied in large part because it was costless. The
firms did not continue making the training available when the subsidy
ended. The more positive side was that as long as the training was subsi-
dized, employers were willing to let public programs through their doors,
something that is not always easy to accomplish. Similar efforts in other
parts of the country have also demonstrated that involving employers in
subsidized training interventions is quite feasible (Pindus et al. 2004).
One interpretation of the foregoing is that the career ladder idea is flawed.
The basis for this view is that there is very little evidence in any of the cases
that new job paths have been created that operate at any scale. That is, firms
have not fundamentally reorganized their promotion ladders in order to
create new rungs (that is, new jobs or reconfigured tasks) that enable low-
wage workers to more easily move up. This would be a possible reading,
but it is too pessimistic: even though ladders have not been reshaped, the
programs do indeed demonstrate that employers can be encouraged, incen-
tivized, and supported to increase the amount of training they provide to
their incumbent workforce. This is clear from the work of JVS in Boston,
1199C in Philadelphia, and the several hotel projects we reviewed, and to
a lesser extent it can be seen in the manufacturing examples as well. This is
important for two reasons. First, as we have seen, one of the markers of bad
jobs is that they provide little training. We saw this in the data that dem-
onstrated that low-wage workers receive far less firm-based training than
do their more advantaged colleagues. Increasing training is also important
because it enables employees to move up existing job paths. Even if the job
paths remain the same, more training can improve the prospects of those at
the bottom, and in this sense the nature of low-level jobs changes. Instead of
being dead-end, they now lead somewhere.
The path to progress is not easy. The internal politics of organizations can
be problematic. Multiple organizational actors—top executives, HR staff,
line supervisors, and staff charged with running the actual programs—
have different priorities, and these are not always congruent. We also saw
that small employers often lack the managerial or human resources staff
capacity to take full advantage of the programs. On top of all this, these
efforts take a long time. With the difficulties faced by low-wage workers,
in terms of both skills and family issues, it is a long haul to get the training
needed and to move up the job ladder. It is naive to expect easy and rapid -1
improvements. 0
+1
All this said, there are more positive lessons. In virtually all cases, employ-
ees are eager participants. Their level of motivation and desire to improve
themselves is very strong and provides a strong basis for moving forward.
Finally, it does seem clear that well-designed programs can help change the
culture of an organization and move it toward one in which the training and
education of low-wage workers is seen as a good way of doing business. This
is an important step forward in improving the quality of these jobs.
Thus far the news has been good. However, when we ask what pro-
portion of students who enroll in community college obtain a degree or
certificate, or even accomplish a full year of attendance, the picture dark-
ens considerably. Although there is controversy about the precise failure
rates, all agree that they are much too high.8 This failure rate is without
question the greatest challenge confronting community colleges.
It is clear from this discussion that community colleges by dint of their
scale and the nature of the students who enroll are central training institu-
tions for the people who are at the core of this chapter’s interest. It is also
clear that, as shown by the gains achieved by people who obtain com-
munity college credentials, these institutions hold considerable promise.
All this said, the high rates of failure point to the need to take significant
steps to improve these institutions, and the question of how to do so is
addressed in the final section.
Conclusion
As noted at the beginning of this chapter, it is important to understand
that a serious effort to reduce the prevalence of low-wage work will
require a range of initiatives of which career ladders and training are only
one component. Nevertheless, career ladders are certainly worth pursu-
ing. But how do we make them more effective? And what more do we
need to know about them?
Improving community college performance is obviously one crucial
step. Important experiments are under way to simplify the choices fac-
ing students and restructure remedial education so that those choices are
both faster and better integrated into the credit curriculum. In addition,
despite their importance, community colleges receive far less funding
than do four-year schools, and the gap cannot be fully explained by the
broader mission of the better-funded institutions. This low level of fund-
ing for community colleges has consequences in terms of the prevalence
of part-time faculty and the absence of significant counseling and support
functions.
Resources are in fact a more general concern. To date, a great deal of
intermediary and career ladder funding as well as programmatic ini-
tiatives for career ladder programs have come from foundations. The
federal government has played a role—for example, resources in the
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 were set
aside for programs aimed at careers in green jobs—but in general federal
funding has been inadequate and declining. U.S. Department of Labor
Workforce Investment Act (WIA) funding has declined since 2004 and is -1
at major risk, owing to the current budgetary and political difficulties. It 0
+1
Notes
1. This calculation is based on the Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation
Group (CPS-ORG). The data are for people age twenty-five to sixty-four in
civilian employment. For more information on how the data are analyzed, see
Osterman and Shulman (2011).
2. One study found that among low-earners over six years, starting in the early
1990s—a period of remarkable economic strength—only 27 percent raised
their income enough to rise consistently above the poverty line for a family of
four (Holzer 2004). A more recent study looked at low-earners in the years 1995
to 2001 and found that 6 percent of those working full-time and 18 percent of
those working part-time in any year had dropped out of the labor force by the
next year. Among those who did stay in the workforce, 40 percent experienced
either a decrease or no change in their earnings (Theodos and Bednarzik 2006.)
Using yet a third data source, this time tracking mobility from 2001 to 2003,
researchers found that 44 percent of the employees at poverty wages in 2001
had no better wages in 2003; moreover, an additional 22 percent were not even
employed (Lopreste et al. 2009).
3. Among working adults in the census ORG data between 2000 and 2009, the
hourly wage of those with a college degree increased by a total of 0.3 per-
cent, while the hourly wage of those with only a high school degree grew
-1 by 1.9 percent and the hourly wage of those with a graduate degree grew
0 by 2.7 percent.
+1
4. For a discussion of the technology story, see Autor, Levy, and Murnane (2003).
For the application of this story to explain recent trends in wages, see Autor,
Katz, and Kearney (2008); see also Autor (2010).
5. The account in this session is based on fieldwork by Elizabeth Chimienti.
6. For the number of community colleges, see American Association of Community
Colleges, “Fast Facts from Our Fact Sheet,” available at: http://www.aacc.nche.
edu/AboutCC/Pages/fastfactsfactsheet.aspx (accessed April 2013). Among com-
munity colleges, 17 percent have enrollment of at least ten thousand, and 12 per-
cent have enrollment of five hundred or less. Twenty-three percent of community
colleges are in California (National Center for Education Statistics 2008, 3).
7. The estimates were for year 2000 wages for students who were in the eighth grade
in 1988 and no longer in school when the earnings data were collected. Because
the data source—the National Educational Longitudinal Survey (NELS)—is
quite rich, the authors were able to control for high school performance as well
as a wide range of parental characteristics. These controls substantially reduce
concerns regarding selection bias in driving the results.
8. The federal government collects data on graduation rates through its Inte-
grated Post-Secondary Data System (IPEDS); according to the most recent fig-
ures, only 22 percent of public community college students who entered in
2005 had obtained a degree or certificate within 150 percent of the expected
time, that is, by 2008. However, the problem with these data is that they refer
only to full-time students, whereas we saw that a strong majority attend
part-time. Another federal source, the Post-Secondary Longitudinal Students
Survey, includes both full- and part-time students. In these data, among stu-
dents who enrolled in the fall of 2003, by June 2006 5.5 percent had obtained
a certificate, 10.0 percent had earned an associate’s degree, 39.8 percent were
still enrolled, and 44.6 percent were no longer enrolled. In other words,
the three-year success rate, as measured by a credential, was an even lower
15.5 percent, presumably reflecting worse outcomes for part-time students.
These outcomes are more than a little discouraging. However, many
observers would point out that they are also somewhat unfair. Given the
substantial fraction of part-time students, focusing on a three-year completion
rate may be too stringent. The U.S. Department of Education does not collect
outcomes for a longer enrollment period; however, a recent effort, executed
by Jobs for the Future as part of the Lumina Foundation Achieving the Dream
initiative, did collect detailed outcome data from six states for a six-year period
since enrollment. These data paint a brighter picture than do the three-year
federal figures, but the assessment is still grim. Even assuming that the story
for transfer students has a uniformly happy ending, at best only four out
of ten students reach their goals within six years of enrolling, and in most
states the results are even worse; see National Center for Education Statistics -1
(2010, table 5) and National Center for Education Statistics (2003–2004). 0
+1
References
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Market: Implications for Employment and Earnings.” Washington, D.C.: Cen-
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Autor, David, Lawrence F. Katz, and Melissa S. Kearney. 2008. “Trends in U.S.
Wage Inequality: Revising the Revisionists.” Review of Economics and Statistics
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Autor, David, Frank Levy, and Richard Murnane. 2003. “The Skill Content of
Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Investigation.” Quarterly Journal of
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Year Colleges.” American Economic Review 85(3): 600–614.
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Are Low-Wage Workers?” ASPE Research Brief. Washington: U.S. Department
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-1 Mikelson, Kelley, and Demetra Nightingale. 2004. “Estimating Public and Private
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———. 2008. “Community Colleges: Special Supplement to the Condition of Educa-
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-1
0
+1
Sarah Hamersma
Labor Supply
t
B Labor Supply with
Earned Income Tax Credit
A
Wages
Labor Demand
Employment
$3,169
Parent with One Child
Nonparent
$475
federal income tax. Because of this feature of the program, there are some
individuals who would not otherwise be obligated to file who can benefit
from filing because of the EITC.
Issues of EITC compliance have been a major concern in recent years
(U.S. Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration 2011). Recent
estimates suggest that about one-fourth of EITC claims are made inap-
propriately. The primary confusion for recipients (and their tax prepar-
ers) seems to be the issue of the appropriate number of children to claim
(Hotz and Scholz 2003). The definition of a “qualifying child” under EITC
includes an age, relationship, and residency test and has not always been
the same as that used for other tax credits (Hamel 2009). The IRS has
engaged in a number of outreach strategies to claimants and tax preparers
to help improve rates of compliance (U.S. Treasury Inspector General for
Tax Administration 2011).
The overall cost of the EITC program has increased substantially over
the years due to both eligibility expansions and benefit increases. Table 7.1
provides the annual number of participants and total cost of the program.
In recent years, the annual cost has been over $55 billion. This far exceeds
the 2009 spending on cash assistance—Temporary Assistance for Needy
Families (TANF)—of about $6 billion and is on par with the 2009 cost of
the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which grew by
42 percent relative to 2008.2 The cost of EITC benefits shown in table 7.1
does not include administrative costs, although these are relatively small
for tax credits relative to transfer programs, for which close to 20 percent
of costs can be administrative (Olson 2011).
The Earned Income Tax Credit has received fairly consistent political
support since its inception, with major expansions enacted in 1986, 1990,
and 1993. V. Joseph Hotz and John Karl Scholz (2003) provide a detailed
discussion of the nature of each of the early expansions. The most recent
changes in the EITC have been a higher subsidy rate for those with three or
more children as well as an increase in the beginning of the phaseout range
for couples filing joint returns (introduced via the American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act of 2009 and extended through 2017 via the American
Taxpayer Relief Act of 2013).3 In addition, the IRS continues to develop out-
reach methods to improve compliance, since consistently poor compliance
(whether real or perceived) could make the EITC less politically palatable
than it has historically been.
$2,400
Subsidy Value to
Employer per Hour
(Assuming $8 per
Hour Wage)
40% Subsidy
Credit
$1,280
(Increase of 60%)
$800
Source: Author’s illustration using parameters from U.S. Department of Labor (n.d.).
California and Texas in 1997 and 1999 found that 3 percent of participating
firms accounted for 83 percent of WOTC certifications. This study found
that in 1997 the top 5 percent of firms in terms of size (gross receipts)
claimed two-thirds of all WOTC dollars (U.S. General Accounting Office
2001a). Another study found that temporary help services (THS) firms
make up a disproportionate share of participating firms; THS firms in
Wisconsin made up 26 percent of WOTC applications in 2002 (Hamersma
and Heinrich 2008). This brings up policy concerns about job quality for
WOTC recipients, given the limited legal obligations of THS firms to the
workers they place.6
An important difference between the EITC and WOTC is that the
WOTC is given only when a minimal hours-of-work requirement is
met: workers must remain with the employer for at least 120 hours,
and to reach the maximum subsidy rate the duration needs to exceed
400 hours. The credit is capped for most targeted groups at $2,400 per
worker. Though national data are not available, an analysis of the pop-
ulation of Wisconsin WOTC certifications over a period of two and a
half years indicated that about one-third of certified workers did not -1
0
+1
reach the 120-hour threshold, and that another one-third were between
120 and 400 hours. Elsewhere (Hamersma 2011) I have suggested that
there is evidence that the hours requirement is one explanation for low
participation in the credit.
Another important difference between the EITC and WOTC is the refund-
ability of the credits. The WOTC, like most tax credits but unlike the EITC,
is not refundable. Firms whose credit eligibility exceeds their tax liabil-
ity do have the option of carrying over the value of the subsidy to future
years, which makes the lack of refundability a bit less relevant, but it does
not overcome the exclusion of nonprofit firms from the program. Low-
income workers in, for instance, charity-funded hospitals would not qualify
the employer for a credit, even as their EITC eligibility is unaffected by the
nature of their employment.
Compliance issues in the WOTC program are very different from
those in the EITC, in large part because the WOTC system of admin-
istration is unique. The WOTC is jointly administered by the U.S.
Department of Labor (working through state-level offices) and the IRS.
Applications for the WOTC are submitted by firms at the time of hire to
the state office, and certifications are granted (or not) by that state office
based on documentation either submitted by the firm or gathered by the
office from government databases. There is a 10 percent required audit
rate of these certifications to assess the accuracy of eligibility determi-
nations (though I am unaware of any reports related to these audits).
The certification or denial, once sent to a firm, marks the completion
of the role of the Department of Labor and grants permission to the
firm to claim this worker on its IRS tax forms the following year. How-
ever, because the credit amount depends on work hours as well, it is
the responsibility of the IRS to assess whether a claim made—even on
behalf of a certified worker—is accurate. To my knowledge, there has
been no public information about IRS auditing related to this concern.
The IRS form submitted by firms, in fact, contains only the aggregate
WOTC claim of the firm, making it impossible for researchers (even if
we were armed with IRS WOTC data, which we are not) to understand
much about compliance.
The lack of compliance concerns with the WOTC seems incongruent
with the substantial attention paid to EITC compliance, but the reason may
be related to the much smaller size of the WOTC program relative to the
EITC. Table 7.2 provides the number of certifications for each year of the
program along with estimates of the tax cost of these certifications. For
most of its history, the WOTC has cost $300 million to $400 million per
-1 year; in very recent years, it has expanded dramatically to just over $1 bil-
0 lion. Much of the latest growth appears to be due to a recent expansion in
+1
13502-08_CH07-2ndPgs.indd 195
Year Certifications Certifications Certifications (Million) Target Groups Within WOTC (Dollars)
1997 123,407 — 123,407 $110 60 percent AFDC/TANF, 21 percent food
stamp youth, 19 percent other (Levine
1998)
1998 285,322 46,580 331,902 $185
1999 335,707 104,998 440,705 $305 54 percent AFDC/TANF, 20 percent food
stamp youth, less than 8 percent each for
other groups (U.S. GAO 2001a)
2000 370,835 154,608 525,443 $440
2001 383,357 97,072 480,429 $390
2002 377,310 46,652 423,962 $460
2003 403,243 33,068 436,311 $490 40 percent AFDC/TANF, 27 percent food
stamp youth, 13 percent high-risk youth,
6 percent supplemental security income,
5 percent vocational rehab, 6 percent ex-
felons (Levine 2005)
2004 244,445 15,601 260,046 $340
2005 598,101 32,817 630,918 $230
2006 325,178 13,859 339,037 $290
2007 612,052 21,771 633,964 $450 45 percent food stampa, 28 percent TANF,
8 percent high-risk youth, 7 percent
ex-felons, 6 percent supplemental security
income (Levine 2008)
(Table continues on p. 196.)
12/10/13 8:34 AM
0
-1
+1
0
-1
+1
13502-08_CH07-2ndPgs.indd 196
Table 7.2 (Continued)
Number of Number Number
Fiscal WOTC of WtW of Total Total FY Cost Distribution of Certifications Across
Year Certifications Certifications Certifications (Million) Target Groups Within WOTC (Dollars)
2008 668,214 24,207 692,421 $570 61 percent food stamp, 14 percent TANF,
11 percent designated community
residentsb, 7 percent ex-felons, 4 percent
supplemental security income, 3 percent
vocational rehab, less than 3 percent each
for other groups (Scott 2011)
2009 702,312 17,502 719,814 $870 74 percent food stamp, 10 percent TANF,
3 percent designated community residents,
6 percent ex-felons, less than 3 percent
each for other groups (Scott 2013)
2010 849,044 65,447 914,491 $1,110 59 percent food stamp, 6 percent TANF,
8 percent designated community residents,
4 percent ex-felons, 18 percent discon-
nected youthc, less than 3 percent each for
other groups (Scott 2013)
12/10/13 8:34 AM
2011 1,081,158 79,365 1,160,523 $1,110 63 percent food stamp, 5 percent TANF,
6 percent designated community residents,
3 percent ex-felons, 19 percent discon-
nected youth, less than 3 percent each for
13502-08_CH07-2ndPgs.indd 197
other groups (Scott 2013)
2012 820,907 71,407 892,314 $1,130 73 percent food stamp, 6 percent TANF, 6
percent designated community residents,
3 percent ex-felons, 5 percent disconnected
youth, 4 percent veterans, less than 3 per-
cent each for other groups (Scott 2013)
Source: Author’s compilation certification totals for 1997–2007 are from Levine (2008); for 2008–2012, from Scott (2013). Dollar values are from
the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (various years) using the most recent available estimate for each year from 1999 to 2014. The target-
group distribution is reported only in some years, with the appropriate reports cited where relevant.
a
The “food stamp youth” category was expanded to include those up to age thirty-nine hired after January 1, 2007 and thus is renamed “food
stamp” for the remainder of the table.
b
The “high-risk youth” category of eighteen- to twenty-four-year-old enterprise zone, empowerment community, or rural renewal community
residents was renamed “designated community residents” and expanded through thirty-nine-year-olds as of May 25, 2007 (http://www.gpo.
gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-110publ28/html/PLAW-110publ28.htm).
c
The “disconnected youth” category was a new temporary target group created for hires during 2009 and 2010. This group included sixteen- to
twenty-four-year-olds who were neither working nor in school in the previous six months and who lacked job skills.
12/10/13 8:34 AM
0
-1
+1
198 What Works for Workers?
eligibility that changed the “food stamp youth” target group (ages eighteen
to twenty-four) to the “food stamp” group (ages eighteen to thirty-nine),
combined with a recession that has resulted in unprecedented participa-
tion in food stamps. The program also expanded the age group for the
geographically defined “high-risk youth” (and renamed them “designated
community residents”) and added a “disconnected youth” category for
two years, resulting in a large new target group in those years.7 Even in
these recent years, however, the cost of the program is less than 2 percent
that of the EITC and might be considered of second-order importance
when it comes to auditing and compliance.
It could also be the case that less attention is dedicated to WOTC com-
pliance than EITC compliance because of potential backlash from the
large, influential firms that claim the vast majority of WOTC dollars.
The individuals whose EITC claims are challenged are often low-income
workers who are not equipped to appeal such challenges, while large
firms have resources at their disposal and a significant amount of money
at stake. Congressional testimony in favor of WOTC extension from
corporations such as Marriott suggests that concern about the mainte-
nance of WOTC benefits already has the attention of the large firms that
participate.
The political history of the WOTC actually began long before the
program itself. The first large programs for employer tax credits began
in the late 1970s. The New Jobs Tax Credit (NJTC) of 1977 and 1978
provided tax credits to firms for expanding employment by a substan-
tial amount without targeting particular workers. Upon expiration, the
NJTC was replaced by the Targeted Jobs Tax Credit (TJTC), a program
with target groups similar to those of the WOTC. Over the years, issues
of stigma (due to the program’s use of worker vouchers) and limited
evidence of a net employment effect ultimately caused Congress to
allow the credit to expire in 1994 (U.S. Department of Labor, Office of
the Inspector General 1994). Perhaps surprisingly, two years later the
WOTC, which differs only slightly from the TJTC, was introduced and
passed around the same time as welfare reform.8 Although the WOTC
has not faced major political challenges since then, the dynamics of leg-
islation have been more irregular than they have been for the more sol-
idly supported EITC. The WOTC was initially legislated as a temporary
program, and it is typically extended in one- to two-year increments,
sometimes retroactively.9 It has also developed a sort of “patchwork”
structure as Congress authorizes new, narrowly defined target groups
for specific time periods (for example, a Liberty Zone group related
-1 to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and later a Hurricane
0 Katrina group). Several provisions related to veterans were introduced
+1
and expanded on November 21, 2011, in the Vow to Hire Heroes Act,
and recently the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 extended the
WOTC through December 31, 2013.
Empirical research on both the EITC and the WOTC has been mixed in
terms of uncovering employment and earnings responses to the work
incentives created by each program.11 There is, however, a consistent find-
ing that the perverse incentives in each program have not caused serious
problems. In the case of the EITC, the research suggests that workers in
the phaseout range of the EITC do not appear to respond to the subsidy by
reducing earnings (Eissa and Hoynes 2006), and in general it appears that
the kink points in the policy are fairly unnoticed by claimants, with the
possible exception of the self-employed (Saez 2010). Even studies focus-
ing on secondary earners do not find large reductions in hours worked
(Eissa and Hoynes 2006; Heim 2007). Some new evidence from Raj Chetty
and Emmanuel Saez (2013) does indicate, however, that workers are more
likely to respond to the work incentives (including negative incentives) of
the EITC when they are given specific information about their place in the
EITC distribution by their tax preparer. Similarly, work on the WOTC has
found neither evidence of firms churning workers whose subsidies have
expired (U.S. General Accounting Office 2001a) nor any evidence that job
separations bunch near the program’s hours thresholds (Hamersma 2011).
A major difference appears in the evidence on positive effects for the
two tax credits. The evidence on the EITC is encouraging: the incentive to
join the workforce appears to have caused sizable increases in labor force
participation among single mothers (for a summary of several studies,
see Eissa and Hoynes 2006). For example, V. Joseph Hotz, Charles Mullin,
and John Karl Scholz (2006) use the growing difference in EITC benefits
to families with one child versus those with two children to identify the
employment effects of the EITC; they find that the EITC increased relative
employment of the latter group by as much as 3.4 percentage points. In
contrast, the WOTC incentive for firms to hire additional disadvantaged
workers does not appear to have taken hold, at least based on the limited
research available. Elsewhere (Hamersma 2008) I have found very little
evidence of an employment effect of the credit in Wisconsin. It appears
that most hires under the program would have been hired anyway and
merely created a financial benefit for firms that claimed the credit. Small
employment effects of the WOTC are consistent with past experience with
the TJTC (Katz 1998).
However, work on these programs has not exclusively examined employ-
ment. Economic theory predicts not just an employment effect but a wage
effect of each program. In the case of the EITC, tax incidence theory tells
us that we should expect to see a reduction in wages due to the new, lower
reservation wage of those who are now willing to enter the labor market
-1 because of the wage supplement; in other words, some of the value of
0 the subsidy passes through to the firm. Similarly, we would expect that
+1
with the level of benefits available; participation is less than 50 percent for
those qualifying for less than $200 in benefits, while it is over 85 percent
for those qualifying for $2,000 or more.19 Similarly, I have used Wiscon-
sin administrative data to estimate WOTC participation rates by firms
hiring disadvantaged workers with varying rates of potential tax credits
(Hamersma 2011). For firms qualifying for less than $30,000 in credits,
participation rates tend to hover around 15 percent; for those qualifying
for $100,000 or more, the rate rises to nearly 60 percent.20
job programs. A major concern with the WOTC is the low participation rate
and the narrow targeting of eligible individuals. During a recession, one
could argue that many unemployed workers who are not “disadvantaged”
by traditional definitions may need assistance. This line of reasoning has
brought David Neumark (2011) and John Bishop and Timothy Bartik (2009)
to argue for the introduction of a less-targeted employer tax credit program.
Such a program would be similar to the New Jobs Tax Credit of the late
1970s, providing tax credits to firms for marginal growth in the workforce,
regardless of who is hired. One might be concerned that many of these
workers would have been hired anyway, but net job creation at reasonably
low per-job cost might be possible.
Bishop and Bartik (2009) argue that a temporary, well-designed “Job
Creation Tax Credit” that refunds 10 to 15 percent of new wage costs could
create 5 million jobs over two years.21 Although this credit would be of sub-
stantial gross cost (estimated at nearly $150 billion over two years), their
analysis of the spillover effects in terms of GDP and ultimately net federal
revenue produces an estimated net cost of about $27 billion, or about $5,500
per job created.22 Neumark (2011) is much more cautious about the poten-
tial for such low costs of job creation and generally prefers the EITC as a
long-term strategy, but still argues that a temporary focus on this approach
is merited in the midst of recession. One reason for this focus, he argues,
is the potential benefits for men, who have been hit hard with unemploy-
ment but are less likely to benefit from the EITC due to its concentration
on poor and low-income families. Neumark’s second reason is his concern
that the current economy is not in equilibrium but instead has suffered
from a negative shift in labor demand in the presence of wage rigidities.
This, he argues, implies that increasing labor supply through modification
of the EITC would not influence total employment, as there are already
excess workers available to work (but no jobs for them). From this view,
labor demand must be directly influenced through a firm-side subsidy.
Thus far, there has been (to my knowledge) only a small move in the
direction of a federal job creation tax credit, through the Hiring Incentives
to Restore Employment (HIRE) Act of 2010. This legislation provided a
6.2 percent payroll tax incentive for firms (effectively exempting them
from their share of Social Security payroll taxes) for newly hired, recently
unemployed workers hired during 2010. It also provided a general tax
credit of up to $1,000 to firms for workers retained for at least a year. The
U.S. Treasury Department (2010) estimated that over 10 million work-
ers were eligible to be claimed for the payroll tax exemption during the
period February to October 2010, and the projected cost of the program
was $13 billion. This program was only enacted for 2010, so it has since -1
expired, though the retention credits continue to be claimed based on hires 0
+1
in 2010. There has not yet been a formal evaluation of this program’s
effectiveness.
Meanwhile, there has been substantial movement among states to imple-
ment state-level job creation tax credits or other programs. Robert Chirinko
and Daniel Wilson (2010) note that by August 2009 twenty-four states had
job creation tax credits in place. Their preliminary findings indicate very
little net job creation from the credits. An alternative approach that states
have used to generate jobs from the employer side utilizes government
funds to directly and fully subsidize jobs. Elizabeth Lower-Basch (2011)
describes subsidized job creation using funds made available through the
2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act’s $5 billion TANF Emer-
gency Fund. She reports that using this fund, thirty-nine states and the Dis-
trict of Columbia placed more than 260,000 individuals into jobs, mostly in
the private sector. Although there is not yet a formal program evaluation of
the employment effects of the program, Lower-Basch argues that the stron-
ger incentives created by a larger subsidy (up to 100 percent of wages), the
more intentional nature of the job matches, and the flexibility of states to
design customized programs provide some hope of effectiveness that the
WOTC has been shown to lack.
Conclusion
The important differences between worker-side and employer-side tax cred-
its have driven remarkably different participation patterns and employment
outcomes, despite many common goals and theoretical predictions. Based
on the research thus far, the employer-side WOTC might be summarized
as providing relatively few tax credits, at relatively low cost, with relatively
minimal employment effects (with the important caveat that certifications
have dramatically increased in the last few years but no new evaluations
are yet available). The majority of credits are obtained by firms in the top
5 percent by size, with a disproportionate share going to temporary help
agencies. The consequences to disadvantaged workers of taking jobs in tem-
porary agencies is widely debated, making this prominent role of the WOTC
in that sector potentially controversial as well. There may also be compliance
issues with the WOTC, especially given the incentive structure to keep work-
ers just past certain hours-of-work thresholds, but little attention has been
paid to the potential for fraud.
Conversely, the EITC provides many tax credits, at relatively high cost,
with relatively large employment effects. Researchers generally agree that
there are positive effects of the program. However, concerns about the
-1 high and increasing costs of the program, combined with compliance
0 issues, could bring new levels of scrutiny to the program despite its
+1
Notes
1. Technically, the relevant income is that of the tax-filing unit.
2. TANF data are from U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (2009),
which shows the amount spent on assistance itself, apart from administra-
tion. SNAP data are from Oliveira (2010).
3. Interested readers can obtain up-to-date policy information on the website of
the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities (www.cbpp.org).
4. The Welfare-to-Work Credit was specifically for long-term welfare recipients
and has different hours thresholds and subsidy rates (even upon being rolled
into the WOTC as of January 1, 2007). Details are available from the U.S.
Department of Labor at: http://www.doleta.gov/business/incentives/opptax/
(accessed September 2013).
5. The fraction of the total certifications represented by each group is discussed
in detail later in the chapter. The full list with detailed definitions of current
eligible groups can be found at U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and
Training Administration, “Work Opportunity Tax Credit,” available at: http://
www.doleta.gov/business/incentives/opptax/ (accessed September 2013).
6. For detailed discussion of these concerns, see Hamersma and Heinrich (2008)
and Hamersma, Heinrich, and Mueser (forthcoming).
7. The designated community residents must reside in an Empowerment Zone,
Enterprise Community, or Rural Renewal Community.
8. One key improvement relative to the TJTC was a reduction in the need for
workers to initiate the credit; although vouchers are still available, they are
seldom used. Another important change was a reduction in the paperwork
burden for firms.
9. A detailed description of the legislative history of the program is in Scott (2013). -1
Note that even with retroactive legislation, there are large dips in certifications 0
+1
in years when the WOTC was (apparently) expired, such as in fiscal year 2004,
when there was a nine-month hiatus, and in the fiscal year 2006 period, when
there was a thirteen-month hiatus.
10. Making this assessment may be straightforward in settings with easily observ-
able measureable productivity (such as sales or direct production of physical
goods), but is more difficult in settings where this is not the case (such as
service professions).
11. A variety of other outcomes—not directly related to employment levels
or earnings—have also been examined by researchers of the EITC and the
WOTC. For example, Bruce Meyer (2010) and Nada Eissa and Hilary Hoynes
(2011) lay out the distributional effects of the EITC and address efficiency
concerns. Other work has examined interactions of the EITC with the mar-
riage penalties and bonuses in the tax code (Holtzblatt and Rebelein 2001).
Work on the WOTC has examined its effects on job tenure (Hamersma 2008)
and its distinct outcomes in the market for THS employment (Hamersma
and Heinrich 2008). In the interest of brevity, I review only the findings on
employment and earnings.
12. Dean Plueger (2009) provides a careful discussion of the most recent method-
ologies developed for estimating EITC participation using a combination of
the March CPS and IRS data.
13. A typical March CPS has imputed earnings for about 20 percent of respondents.
14. The fiscal year 2009 estimates rely heavily on data from 2001 so are not fully
reflective of current conditions. The new estimates will use fiscal year 2006
data, the latest iteration of the National Research Program data (U.S. Trea-
sury Inspector General for Tax Administration 2011).
15. Nonparents were not eligible for the EITC until 1994, and even though they
are now eligible, nonparents are still qualified for only a small maximum
credit of $475; see Urban Institute and Brookings Institution, Tax Policy Cen-
ter, “Tax Facts: Earned Income Tax Credit Parameters, 1975–2013,” available at:
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayafact.cfm?Docid=36 (accessed
September 2013).
16. The SIPP is preferred because its monthly panel structure allows more
accurate assessment of past program participation, a necessary element for
assessing WOTC eligibility. Details on CPS results are provided in a footnote
in Hamersma (2003).
17. After the conclusion of the 2004 SIPP, a new panel began with interviews in
September 2008. Because we require eighteen months of past information as
well as a full fiscal year of data, the next possible year for which estimates
could have been developed was fiscal year 2011. At the time this data work
was done, sufficient SIPP data had not yet been released.
-1 18. When an individual receives the EITC throughout the year as an addition
0 to his or her paycheck, the employer would also be aware of the claim. The
+1
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-1
0
+1
Stephanie Luce
Much has already been written about the modern U.S. “living wage”
movement, which began in 1994 in Baltimore.1 The movement was hailed
as one of the most exciting, and most successful, efforts of labor and com-
munity organizations of the past several decades. Almost twenty years
later, with over 125 ordinances or policies in place around the country,
living wage activists are still fighting for higher wages in a handful of cit-
ies, on college campuses, and in other countries. The living wage concept
is perhaps as popular as ever. A recent poll found that 74 percent of New
York City voters support the idea, and a 2007 poll in California found that
the same proportion supported a living wage proposal in Los Angeles.2
But as successful as the movement has been, it is not clear how much
living wage ordinances help low-wage workers. The ordinances cover
only a small proportion of workers, and although wage levels are a sig-
nificant improvement over minimum wage, they are not necessarily high
enough to raise workers out of poverty—and in fact, on average, the raises
are less than the median wage increase that low-wage workers experience
from unionization (37 percent) (Schmitt et al. 2007). Therefore, some might
ask whether it is worth pursuing living wage campaigns at all.
Living wage organizers never promised that the ordinances would
be sufficient for solving poverty or other issues related to the working
poor; indeed, many of those organizers have also been heavily involved
in other policy campaigns—such as minimum wage or the Earned Income
Tax Credit (EITC)—as well as efforts to organize workers into community
organizations and unions. Many of them saw the living wage as a tool
that could help build coalitions and develop the political power needed -1
to pursue broader policy goals, expand outreach, influence public debate 0
+1
215
on wages and economic development, and perhaps open space for new
union organizing or strengthening bargaining power for existing unions.
In some respects, the whole existence of the living wage movement can
be seen as an indication of failure on the part of the labor movement and
social movements to raise wages more broadly through national legis-
lation and unionization. Therefore, living wage ordinances cannot be
judged solely as policy tools for directly improving conditions for low-
wage workers. A thorough evaluation must assess the indirect outcomes
on building political power and increasing union density. Still, living wage
proponents should examine ways to improve the coverage and impact of
the ordinances.
This chapter reviews the research on living wage laws, focusing on their
impact on low-wage workers. I first situate the living wage movement in
the context of minimum wage laws, reviewing the relation between the
two policies and summarizing recent academic research on the latter.
I then discuss the challenges to establishing a more effective living wage
and provide some ideas on how to expand the coverage of the ordinances.
the earlier held views. By 2006, over 650 economists, including five Nobel
Prize winners and six past presidents of the American Economic Associa-
tion, had signed a letter calling for an increase in the federal minimum
wage, stating that it could “significantly improve the lives of low-income
workers and their families, without the adverse effects that critics have
claimed” (Economic Policy Institute 2006).
This is not to say that the debate is closed. Economists such as David
Neumark continue to produce studies suggesting that minimum wage
increases can have negative impacts on employment, though now the focus
is on particular subsets of workers, particularly low-skilled workers, teen-
agers, and black workers (Neumark, Salas, and Wascher 2013). Neumark
and others find that minimum wage increases lead to statistically sig-
nificant disemployment effects of -0.1 to -0.3 for teenagers. This means
that if the minimum wage is increased by 10 percent, the employment
rate for teenagers would fall by 1 to 3 percent (Neumark and Wascher
2006). Other economists argue that the methodology behind these results
is flawed, as it fails to take into account controls for spatial heterogeneity
(Schmitt 2013). For example, Arindrajit Dube, William Lester, and Michael
Reich (2010) and Sylvia Allegretto, Dube, and Reich (2011) argue that
because teen employment patterns differ significantly by state and census
region, it is difficult to compare aggregate data for states. They argue that
researchers must include controls for census region and for state-specific
trends. In work that compares contiguous counties, Dube and his col-
leagues (2010) find no negative outcomes from minimum wage increases.
These researchers have advanced the field methodologically: previously
there had been two different methodologies for studying minimum wage
impact, a national approach and a case study approach, but their work
combines the two. Improving the methodology in the national approach
and generalizing the case study approach, they find no evidence of job
loss. Perhaps surprisingly, their results hold even for a slack labor market,
such as in the 2007 to 2009 recession. No matter whether unemployment
is relatively high or low, Dube and his colleagues find no evidence that
raising the minimum wage causes job loss (Heidi Shierholz, personal cor-
respondence with the author, May 24, 2013).
While there remains some debate about the impact of minimum wage
laws on teenagers, the vast majority of workers affected by minimum
wage increases are not teenagers. As of 2012, more than three-quarters
of workers who would be affected by a minimum wage increase were
older than twenty. The Fair Minimum Wage Act of 2013 would increase
the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 in three stages and then
-1 index it to inflation; it would also increase the tipped minimum wage.
0 Such an increase would affect 30 million workers. Over half of these
+1
Who Are the Workers? Living wage ordinances vary a lot in terms of
who is covered. The majority of ordinances cover city service contracts,
and these workers may be found in janitorial services, security, laundry,
landscaping, bus driving, and food service. The larger ordinances cover
retail and restaurant workers in airports or in sports arenas, and the city-
wide ordinances cover most all low-wage work.
There are at least three major studies of living wage ordinances that
profile the covered workers. The economist David Fairris and Los Angeles
Alliance for a New Economy researchers David Runsten, Carolina Brio-
nes, and Jessica Goodheart (2005) surveyed workers covered by the Los
Angeles ordinance. University of California–Berkeley scholars Michael
Reich, Peter Hall, and Ken Jacobs (2003, 2005) studied workers covered at
the San Francisco airport, and Mark Brenner and Stephanie Luce (2005),
economists at the Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), surveyed
workers in Boston, where those covered worked predominantly in child
care and educational services. Despite the different industries and occupa-
tions, all of these researchers came to some similar conclusions.
Contrary to the claims of some opponents, living wage recipients are
not teenagers working for extra money. Workers covered by traditional
living wage ordinances are in their thirties, support at least one family
member on their income, and have been in their job for at least a few
years. They are disproportionately people of color, and disproportion-
ately from low-income households. For example, Boston workers are on
average thirty-two years old and have 2.9 years of tenure in their current
job. Almost two-thirds are people of color. Their median annual income in
2002 was $23,324. In Los Angeles, 58 percent of covered workers were age
thirty-five or older, 86 percent worked full-time, and the covered workers
had an average of twenty years in the workforce. Half were Latino, 29 per-
cent African American, and 12 percent Asian. Over 75 percent of workers
covered by the San Francisco airport ordinance were twenty-five years or
older, and 86 percent were people of color.
The studies found some differences by location, which seem primarily
explained by the type of work covered. While the Boston workers were -1
79 percent women (employed in child care and educational services), the 0
+1
San Francisco airport workers were mostly men. Boston workers had a
higher average education level, with 52 percent holding a two- or four-
year college degree and another 11 percent having earned a master’s
degree. In contrast, 71 percent of covered workers in Los Angeles had a
high school degree or less.
The Impact on Workers What was the impact of the living wage increase
on the covered workers? The Boston survey compared workers who had
received a living wage increase to those who did not and found that, on
average, the living wage increased hourly earnings by 25 percent and
annual earnings by 60 percent. Annual earnings were higher because
workers had more hours per week, and more weeks per year, than those
not covered by the living wage. From this study, it appears that employers
began to convert part-time jobs into full-time ones once they were man-
dated to pay the higher wage and provide some benefits. Most of the Boston
workers were initially from poverty or near-poverty households. Although
the living wage resulted in higher earnings, the increase was generally not
enough to raise workers much above poverty, particularly when using
more realistic measures of poverty.
The Los Angeles study found that, on average, workers who stayed
in their jobs and received a raise due to the ordinance received an initial
average raise of $1.48 per hour and an average annual increase of $2,590.
However, 81 percent of workers surveyed said that the living wage was
not enough to enable them to meet the basic needs of their families.
The San Francisco airport ordinance resulted in raises for almost 90 per-
cent of the ground-based nonmanagement workers, with an average pay
increase of 22 percent. Reich, Hall, and Jacobs (2003) estimate that this
resulted in a total pay increase for all covered workers of $56.6 million in
annual earnings. The pay increases greatly reduced the wage differentials
between the in-house employees and the subcontracted employees.
Negative Outcomes? Living wage opponents claim that while the ordi-
nances may help some workers, they hurt other workers who are laid off
or not hired as employers cut jobs to comply with the higher wage man-
date. Much of the research in this area focuses on the impact of minimum
wage laws, and another set of studies engages in a debate about the best
methodology to use to measure the impact of living wage ordinances.
Overall, the impact studies that use employer and worker surveys find
little or no evidence of employment effects due to living wage ordinances.
-1 A set of studies authored primarily by economists David Neumark and
0 Scott Adams do find some negative employment effects. However, their
+1
officials and “people power” has a better chance to counter business lob-
bies and money. But even at the local level, more ambitious ordinances and
those that would target large retailers or hotels have encountered much
more resistance. The success rate for traditional ordinances affecting city
contracts is much higher than the success rate for more ambitious ordi-
nances covering more workers.
Depending on the state and “home rule” laws, legal restrictions also limit
the ability of living wage activists to pass local laws. Only some states per-
mit local governments to enact wage laws. In others (Louisiana, Wisconsin,
Florida, and a handful of other states), the state legislature passed new leg-
islation to repeal living wage or minimum wage laws or prevent localities
from passing them. The federal Employment Retirement Income Security
Act (ERISA) prevents local governments from passing laws mandating that
employers provide health insurance to employees.
Another challenge for living wage campaigns is the level of the wage.
Despite the term “living wage,” the majority of ordinances win only an
hourly wage that would raise a full-time worker with a family of three
or four to the federal poverty line. There is a strong consensus among
poverty scholars that the official poverty calculations are outdated and
the levels are too low (Pollin et al. 2008). Therefore, the poverty line is
not even an accurate measure of poverty, let alone a living wage. Several
methodologies are available to measure a more accurate cost of living.
These utilize government data to calculate the realistic costs of minimal
expenses. For example, the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) developed a
“basic family budget” calculator that accounts for housing, food, shelter,
transportation, health care, taxes, and child care. It also adjusts for family
size and region, which the federal poverty line does not do. The EPI bud-
get numbers are usually much higher than the poverty line.
This suggests that the living wage rates of around $10 to $11 per hour
are too low to meet even basic needs. This is not a surprise to living wage
activists. The poverty line was chosen not because it was the best number
but because it was politically feasible.10
The other alternative is for living wage activists to join in efforts to
reduce the cost of living. Policies that increase affordable housing or
reduce or make free health care, child care, and transportation would have
a large impact on the cost of living and therefore reduce the wage levels
needed to cover basic needs.
Putting aside larger campaigns to dramatically increase the federal
minimum wage or reduce the cost of living through policies like single-
payer health care or universal child care, what can living wage activists do
-1 to expand the impact of the movement? Here I focus on two main avenues
0 to expand coverage and address limited hours of work.
+1
Expanding Coverage
In order to explore options to expand coverage, we should first look at
where low-wage workers work. The 2012 poverty threshold for a family
of four was $23,497, which means that, with two thousand hours of work
per year, the living wage for a family of four was $12 per hour. According
to tables I.1 and I.2, the largest low-wage occupations can be found in food
service, health care, retail, and building services. There are unions and
organizations working to organize some of these occupations, such as the
Service Employees International Union in home health care, the National
Domestic Workers Alliance on domestic work, and the Restaurant Oppor-
tunities Center on food preparation and serving. The United Food and
Commercial Workers Union and Workers United represent some work-
ers in retail. Overall, however, organization in these occupations is very
low. Data on worker center membership are not available, but CPS data on
union membership show that union density for these ten largest low-wage
occupations ranges from 1.1 percent in retail sales to 15.2 percent among -1
janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeepers (table 8.1). Overall, 0
+1
the density for these occupations is 7.6 percent, accounting for just 1.7 mil-
lion workers. In other words, over 20 million of those employed in low-
wage occupations are not union members.
Therefore, the living wage movement might be seen as one way to
find points of leverage or political hooks that could create an opening
to raise wages and lay the groundwork for unionization. The campaigns
could assist unionization in several ways. First, they could simply be
a way for unions to do outreach among workers and create a positive
image of unions as effective avenues for raising wages. After the Com-
munication Workers of America helped pass a living wage ordinance in
Tucson, Arizona, city workers contacted the union and said they wanted
to form a union for themselves; they subsequently succeeded in doing
so (Luce 2004).
The ordinances could also include a range of provisions to make union-
ization a little easier. For example, many ordinances contain “nonretalia-
tion” language for workers who discuss their wage levels and rights on the
job. Even though the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA) makes it illegal
for employers to fire workers who organize in their workplace, employers
do so frequently without much penalty. Living wage ordinances could
provide another layer of protection for workers who talk about workers’
rights in the workplace. A few ordinances allow municipal governments
to deny economic benefits to firms with a history of labor law violations,
on the grounds that the city wants to protect its investment and needs to
ensure “labor peace.”11
Unions have already targeted some of the occupations listed here for
organizing, such as janitors and nursing home workers. It seems more
likely that living wage campaigns could be targeted at the occupations
with lower union density, where it is much harder to win an organizing
drive or achieve gains of any kind. What are the possibilities for these
kinds of campaigns? Living wage ordinances already cover a number of
these occupations, although in a limited fashion. Many of the ordinances
cover the janitorial and food service contractors who service city build-
ings, although this usually represents a small number of workers. The
Boston ordinance covers child care workers hired through county con-
tracts, and most ordinances apply to security and landscaping workers
employed through city contracts.
Living wage ordinances also cover some retail, restaurant, and fast-
food work. This is done directly through living wage ordinances that
cover concessionaires in city-owned property (airports, stadiums, ports)
or in a few designated geographic zones (such as the public Marina in
-1 Berkeley, California). Approximately fifty-six ordinances include a living
0 wage requirement for economic development projects. However, most of
+1
these have either a high threshold or easy exemptions, so few cities have
really implemented the living wage for economic development.
Would it be possible to expand the living wage policies to cover more
of these low-wage occupations?
Domestic Workers
Domestic workers include housekeepers, nannies, and elder care work-
ers who work in private homes. There are a number of domestic worker
organizations around the country, and most have come together to work
through the National Domestic Workers Alliance, formed in 2007. In New
York State, the Domestic Workers United proposed a “Domestic Workers’
Bill of Rights” that set a minimum wage of $12 per hour, to have risen to
$14 per hour by 2010, for domestic workers. The Bill of Rights eventu-
ally passed, but did not include the living wage provision. There is now a
campaign for a Domestic Workers’ Bill of Rights in California. It does not
set a minimum wage level, but would mandate that domestic workers are
entitled to annual cost-of-living increases.
If passed, these laws might be difficult to enforce, as workers tend to
be working on their own, directly for an employer. Yet this is a possible
avenue to begin to raise the floor for a large number of workers in the
large low-wage categories of “maids and nannies” and “personal care,” as
well as one of the fastest-growing occupations, child care. As with home
health care, we can take the total employment and subtract the unionized
workers to get a potential 813,887 workers who might be affected. Then, if
we take the 75 percent of workers who earn up to $11.39 per hour, we get
610,415 current workers who could be affected by a living wage law. This
occupation is expected to grow at a pace slower than the national average,
but still, 111,600 new jobs are predicted. Assuming new jobs in the field
remain at the same level of unionization and wages, the living wage could
also affect another 77,950.
Of course, activists already realize the need to raise wages for home
health care and domestic workers. But these campaigns are hard to win,
owing to the weak political power of the workers in these occupations, let
alone the weakness of the labor movement more generally. Living wage
campaigns have targeted city service contracts not because these are the
most effective target to deal with conditions for low-wage workers, but
because these campaigns have more chance of winning.
Economic Development
The campaigns to apply living wages to public economic development
funding are perhaps easier to win than statewide living wage campaigns,
both because activists can target economic development at the local level,
where they have greater relative strength, and because they have found
-1 ways to hold up development projects through the city council. The cam-
0 paigns may also generate greater support from those who desire greater
+1
model to a “developer” model for food and retail, there are more subten-
ants and more discrepancies over employment numbers.17
Formal employment in NAICS 48811 has been declining rapidly as air-
ports subcontract work and replace jobs with technology (such as elec-
tronic check-in), but airports remain a large source of employment. Large
airports can be the largest employer in the state, as with the Hartsfield-
Jackson Airport in Atlanta, where over 58,000 people work for the airlines,
ground crew, security, TSA, and concessionaires.18 The San Francisco
International Airport has 30,000 employees, and the living wage policy
affected about 10,000 of them (Reich et al. 2005).
A study by Airports Council International (2006) found that 2,042,000
people work in airports in North America. Data are not available for
the U.S. share, but if we estimate that 85 percent of these workers are
employed in U.S. airports, and that, based on the San Francisco case, one-
third of those are low-wage, then we get approximately 573,000 low-wage
workers. Unions have already organized some of these workers, who
work in everything from food service to retail concessions, janitorial, secu-
rity guards, airport parking, parking garage, rental car agencies, and other
passenger services. UNITE HERE represents 30,000 workers at sixty-eight
airports. According to an Airport Group report, unionized concession
workers at the Cleveland airport earned $9.96 per hour in 2007, while non-
union employees at the same airport earned $8.50 an hour. (All the union-
ized workers also received health and retirement benefits, compared to
fewer than half of the non-unionized workers.)19 Other unions also repre-
sent airport workers, including the United Food and Commercial Workers
Union (UFCW), the International Brotherhood of Teamsters (IBT), and the
Service Employees International Union (SEIU). We do not have good den-
sity numbers, but if we assume 12 percent density based on the density
for food preparation workers, it means that approximately 68,000 of the
573,000 low-wage workers are unionized. This leaves a potential 505,000
airport workers who are low-wage, are not represented by a union, and
could be covered by a living wage ordinance. In July 2012, the city council
of Syracuse, New York, extended its municipal living wage ordinance to
cover the city’s airport, which is expected to affect about fifty food service
workers (Abbott 2012).
Some living wage ordinances also cover sports stadiums, such as the
living wage policy that was won in 2007 covering Camden Yards in Balti-
more. The stadium is owned and run by the state (through the Maryland
Stadium Authority), and the living wage campaign was targeted at this
state authority. The majority of the ninety-two professional sports stadi-
-1 ums in the country were built with at least some public money (Good Jobs
0 First 2010).
+1
Geographic-Based Ordinances
Another option is to promote more living wage ordinances or policies that
apply to a specific geography. Of course, the most comprehensive of these
are the citywide ordinances, but the opportunity to pass these is restricted
by law in some cases, and also by aggressive employer countercampaigns.
Smaller zones within a city might be more feasible. However, a zone is
not necessarily easier to win just because it is smaller. The Santa Monica
City Council passed a living wage that would have applied to large hotels,
restaurants, and retail establishments in the Third Street Promenade area,
but employers organized a ballot initiative to repeal the law and spent
large sums of money and employed dirty tricks to defeat it (Luce 2004).
Still, living wage activists might consider attempting the strategy in
other places. Most large cities have tourist zones that have benefited
from large economic development subsidies. These might include tax-
incremental financing, business improvement districts, industrial devel-
opment agency loans, and other policies that provide subsidized land
purchases, below-market-rate loans, tax abatements, tax credits, and
subsidized job training, as well as public-sector investment in the infra-
structure necessary for promoting tourism and retail (parking garages,
landscaping, well-paved roads and sidewalks, traffic lights, and adequate
streetlamps). As the Good Jobs First study shows, some of the state subsidy -1
programs do include wage requirements, as do a few of the geographic 0
+1
or “zone” programs (Mattera et al. 2011). For example, the Pine Trees
Development Zones in Maine require employers to pay wages that are
“at least equal to the per-capita income of a county where the project is
located.” Currently, this translates into an hourly wage of $14.04 to $21.71
per hour. Businesses locating in an Iowa enterprise zone must pay 90 per-
cent of the average county or regional wage, whichever is lower, but not
below $7.50 per hour. Currently this results in hourly wages of $10.29 to
$16.44. Many other states have zone programs that do not include a wage
mandate, so this might be an obvious place to start attaching living wage
requirements.
Another geographic-based strategy is to pass ordinances that cover
land at or near ports and airports. In Los Angeles, the city living wage
ordinance initially covered the publicly owned airport directly, but in
2007 the city council passed an extension to the ordinance so that it now
covers hotels in the “airport corridor.” The council argued that the hotels
benefit from their proximity to a public facility, as well as from public
investment in the roads in the area. The extension to the ordinance cov-
ers approximately a dozen hotels. This campaign was difficult to win and
faced legal challenges, so while it could be a model to cover hotels in every
city, anyone undertaking such a campaign should expect a hard fight.
Unfortunately, it is difficult to estimate the number of workers cov-
ered by geographic zone ordinances. We can get some estimates of exist-
ing proposals or policies. For example, Robert Pollin and Mark Brenner
(2000) predicted that 2,477 workers would be directly affected by the
Santa Monica living wage ordinance. The State of Iowa (Gordon 2008)
reports that 9,000 jobs were created through the enterprise zone program
across the state through 2007, although this does not tell us what kinds of
jobs these were.21 Yet to get a comprehensive estimate of potential work-
ers covered by geographic zone ordinances, we would need to estimate
employment in all enterprise zone programs, all tourist districts, all air-
port corridors, and so on, which is beyond the scope of this chapter.
Hours Worked
A second way in which the living wage movement might expand to more
effectively bring low-wage workers out of poverty is to address the issue
of hours of work. A major challenge for low-wage workers is that in addi-
tion to earning low hourly wages, many fall even further behind finan-
cially because they are not given as many hours to work as they would
like. “Involuntary part-time” workers make up one of the largest compo-
-1 nents of “labor underutilization” today, and their numbers are on the rise
0 (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2013).
+1
Policies that mandate benefits for all employees might push employers
away from this strategy.
This might also happen with minimum hours-per-shift, or pay-per-
day policies. Haley-Lock (2011) studied restaurant chains in the United
States and Canada and found that U.S. managers tended to send workers
home early if business was slow. In the same chain in British Columbia,
Canada, managers never did this. Provincial law requires them to pay a
minimum of four hours for any shift scheduled up to four hours, and a
minimum of eight hours for shifts scheduled for up to eight hours. The
“minimum daily wage” leads to employers increasing their demand for
hours per employee.22
players in the 2006 state minimum wage ballot initiatives. Those efforts
had a direct impact on several million workers at the time of the increases,
and the effects continue in the states that now use indexing. For example,
the Economic Policy Institute estimated that just over 1 million workers
benefited from indexed wage increases in eight states on January 1, 2012
(Cooper 2012). According to Jen Kern, former director of the ACORN
National Living Wage Resource Center, the experience gained and lessons
learned from working on local campaigns helped advocates pass stronger
minimum wage laws, such as ones that include indexing for inflation (Jen
Kern, personal correspondence with the author, May 13, 2013).
Conclusion
Living wage campaigns have been one of the most successful pro-worker
policy efforts of the last fifteen years. Popular support has been consis-
tently high, and most major cities now have ordinances. However, liv-
ing wage ordinances cover only a small proportion of low-wage workers.
Wage levels have been significantly improved, but not necessarily high
enough to raise workers out of poverty. And while the wage increases are
substantial, on average they are lower than the median wage increase that
low-wage workers experience from unionization (37 percent).
Raising the federal and state minimum wages, and indexing them,
would be a more effective way to cover a large number of low-wage
workers. Senate bill S.460 (Fair Minimum Wage Act of 2013) would affect
over 30 million low-wage workers. Programs like universal health care
and universal child care, as well as expanded affordable housing, would -1
reduce expenses for low-wage workers and therefore lower the hourly 0
+1
wage needed for a living wage. Living wage activists have pursued liv-
ing wage campaigns not because they are necessarily the most effective
way to address the needs of low-income workers, but because they are
more politically feasible, and because of other potential benefits as well,
such as building new coalitions, developing or strengthening alliances,
and supporting unionization efforts. Therefore, living wage ordinances
should not necessarily be evaluated by the same criteria we might bring to
evaluating other low-wage worker policy.
Other research assesses the impact of living wage campaigns on these
other outcomes (coalition building, support for unionization). Here we
have just tried to focus on the possibility of expanding living wage cam-
paigns to cover a greater share of low-wage workers through campaigns
that might be more feasible and might have some of the side benefits. The
results suggest that certain avenues are more fruitful than others. Big-box
ordinances would address some of the largest and most powerful low-
wage employers, but if they cover only stores larger than 90,000 square
feet and apply only to new development, their impact might not be great.
And because ordinances affecting home health workers must be won pri-
marily at the state level, these relatively difficult fights might just as likely
be statewide minimum wage campaigns.
The more promising avenues for campaigns that would affect large
numbers of low-wage workers yet remain local are ordinances that cover
airports and ordinances or policies that apply to economic development
projects, like the CRA policy in Los Angeles.
In addition, living wage activists should support campaigns that extend
benefits to all workers, regardless of hours worked, and possibly “mini-
mum shift hours” policies, in order to encourage the shift away from part-
time work to more full-time jobs. In addition to a higher hourly wage,
a reduction in involuntary part-time work would greatly assist workers
living below the poverty line.
Still, our estimates suggest that living wage policies are not likely to
reach the majority of the 37 million low-wage workers. The expansion
proposed here would involve numerous difficult campaigns, each prob-
ably taking years and many resources and staff hours. The process of
building a campaign may be useful in itself, however, and for that rea-
son living wage campaigns can be valuable in ways that other policies
may not be. But to truly make a dent in addressing low-wage work in
the United States, much more dramatic efforts are necessary. The living
wage movement may not be the most effective way to increase wages for
large numbers of low-wage workers in the short run, but it may be one
-1 of the few ways to build the political power needed for greater change
0 in the long run.
+1
Notes
1. The author thanks Arin Dube, Jen Kern, and Heidi Shierholz, plus anony-
mous reviewers, for comments on this chapter.
2. See Julia Rosen, “Working Californian’s L.A. Living Wage Poll,” Calitics,
January 29, 2007; and David Seifman, “74 Percent Support Increase in Living
Wage: Poll,” New York Post, December 14, 2011.
3. These laws have exemptions. For example, the Santa Fe law exempts firms
with fewer than twenty-five employees and employees of the school district.
The San Francisco law exempts workers who are not covered by the state
minimum wage, such as workers classified as independent contractors.
4. They may bid by total hours of work instead of full-time equivalents (FTEs).
Even if they bid by number of FTEs, there is no monitoring to verify the actual
number of workers who do the job in the end.
5. For example, when my colleague and I submitted a Freedom of Information
Act (FOIA) request to see the contracts held by the city of Boston, we were ini-
tially told that we would have to pay $18,000 for photocopying and staff time.
6. In fact, the lack of transparency around contracting practices and subsidy
money is a strong motivation for living wage activism. Policymakers have been
advocating greater reliance on the private sector for many years, on the prem-
ise that this automatically leads to cost savings and more effective service pro-
vision and development. Yet research shows that these promises often do not
hold up (Chang 2008; Luce 2004; Sclar 2001). There is fraud and waste in the
contracting and subsidy process, and some contractors have extracted excess
profits by paying very low wages and providing no benefits. Living wage cam-
paigns challenge the logic of privatization and reliance on the private sector.
7. In a few cities, employers challenged the scope of the law, arguing that their
employees should not be covered since they worked on other contracts as
well as on contracts with the city. For example, the industrial laundry com-
pany Cintas argued that it should be exempt from the L.A. living wage ordi-
nance because its employees worked fewer than twenty hours a month on
laundering city uniforms (covered under the city living wage ordinance), and
because they launder city uniforms with other items, it was not possible for
them to distinguish which employees washed the city uniforms. An appellate
court ruled in favor of the workers. Cintas agreed to pay $6.5 million to settle
the suit, giving over five hundred workers over $3.3 million in back wages
and interest (McDonell 2009).
8. Three cities in Wisconsin passed citywide wage ordinances, but state law has
since repealed these.
9. Data are from State of Working America (Mishel et al. 2013), using total non-
farm employment. “Poverty level” is defined as the hourly wage needed to -1
bring a full-time worker to the federal poverty line for a family of four. 0
+1
10. See Wicks-Lim and Thompson (2010) for estimates of how high a minimum
wage could go before there might be some job loss.
11. For more on using living wage campaigns to assist unionization, see Luce (2004).
12. This was Daley’s only veto in nineteen years as mayor of Chicago.
13. There is no consistent data source for this information, but one estimate, by
Timothy Bartik (2002), is that states and local governments spend $20 billion
to $30 billion a year on economic development programs, and the federal
government $6 billion per year.
14. GGP owns over two hundred malls and probably received much more than
this in public subsidies, but the report focuses on only fifty of its malls.
15. I use data for “Regional Shopping Malls” for years 6 to 10. REMI provides
estimates for malls in different types of settings (city, suburban, and metro-
politan statistical area).
16. These might be tied to worker retention ordinances (WROs) that apply when
the airport switches contractors. The WRO mandates that the new contractor
must retain the existing employees and can fire them only for just cause. For
example, the WRO at the Los Angeles airport mandates that a new contractor
retain the workforce for ninety days. The initial campaign was launched after
one thousand unionized food service workers on an airport contract were
faced with losing their jobs when the airport awarded the contract to a non-
union firm.
17. See, for example, Airport Group, UNITE HERE, “Five Things to Know About
Developers: How BAA and Other Developers Shortchange Workers and Air-
ports,” available at: http://www.airportgroup.info/documents/Airport%20
Development%207-08.pdf (accessed September 2013).
18. Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport, “ATL Fact Sheet,” available at:
http://www.atlanta-airport.com/Airport/ATL/ATL_FactSheet.aspx (accessed
September 2013).
19. Airport Group, UNITE HERE, “Five Things to Know About Developers.”
20. The average shift for a football game is four hours, and with only ten home
games a year, a football team generates only twenty to thirty full-time-
equivalent jobs outside of the front office. However, the living wage applies to
all employees, not just FTEs.
21. However, Colin Gordon (2008) finds that almost 30 percent of the jobs created
were paying wages below the mandate, because they were probably set just
above the mandate when created and then were not subject to annual cost-
of-living increases.
22. The law requires a minimum of three hours’ pay for shifts initially sched-
uled. Some U.S. states have a similar law. For example, New York State Pro-
tection of Employees (Part-time Work) Act of 2001 requires employers to pay
-1 workers for a minimum of four hours per shift, even if the employee is sent
0 home early.
+1
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0
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0
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Jeffrey B. Wenger
Unemployment insurance (UI) was passed into law in 1935 as part of the
Social Security Act. The system was designed to serve two purposes: pro-
vide income to eligible workers during periods of involuntary job loss,
and stabilize demand in local economies with high unemployment rates.
The program provides benefits to workers who have a strong workforce
attachment and who lose their jobs through no fault of their own. While
the UI program in the United States aims to achieve these goals, it was
designed to allow the methods by which the individual states pursue
them to vary. Instead of operating as one national system, the UI program
in the United States comprises fifty-one separate systems.1
Each of the separate systems is operated by the state in partnership
with the federal government, and each state develops UI policies that
establish the conditions for eligibility, benefit amounts, and tax schedules.
However, the federal government ensures that state policies comply with
federal statutes. On occasion, the federal government utilizes financial
incentives and penalties to encourage states to adopt its preferred poli-
cies. To fund the UI program, the federal government collects tax reve-
nue, while states collect the taxes that pay for UI benefits to individuals.
Employers pay a lower tax rate if their former employees do not collect
UI benefits, so employers have an incentive to minimize the number of
unemployed workers receiving UI benefits.
Figure 9.1 illustrates the percentage of the U.S. labor force who were
unemployed and the percentage of the labor force who received UI ben-
efits during the last three decades. The insured unemployment rate is
-1
simply the percentage of the U.S. labor force receiving regular weekly
0
+1
247
20 58.4% 0.6
18 51.7%
49.3% 0.5
16
Unemployment
14
0.4
IU/TU Ratio
12 32.6%
35.9% 35.2%
10 0.3
8
0.2
6
4
0.1
2
0 0
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
80
82
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
84
Year
IU/TU Ratio (right axis)
Total Unemployment Rate
Insured Unemployment Rate
Source: Author’s compilation based on U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training
Administration (various years) and Center for Economic and Policy Research (2012).
benefits, and this rate is always less than the total unemployment rate.
Between 1980 and approximately 2008, the gap between the two rates
declined, meaning that a growing proportion of the unemployed had been
receiving UI benefits; this modest increase followed two decades (1960 to
1980) of declines in the UI recipiency rate. As can be seen in the figure,
during recessions the gap between the total unemployment (TU) rate and
the insured unemployment rate increases. Surprisingly, the current reces-
sion has generated the largest decline in the IU/TU ratio since the 1980s,
despite policies extending benefits for up to ninety-nine weeks. In 2011 the
ratio reached a minimum at 32.6, indicating that fewer than one-third of
the unemployed were receiving UI benefits.
In the 1920s and 1930s, when the UI system was designed and imple-
mented, men represented a significant majority of the labor force; they were
typically the “breadwinners” for their families and were the primary focus
-1 of the UI program. Many men worked in manufacturing and in unionized
0 shops. During this early period, the percentage of the unemployed who
+1
received UI benefits often exceeded 60 percent. This high rate was due in
part to UI’s eligibility criteria being designed to benefit full-time workers
with incomes large enough to support a family; as such, the eligibility rules
explicitly made low-income and part-time workers ineligible for benefits.2
This led to a system that often failed to cover earnings losses by women,
workers in the service sector, or those without union representation. State
eligibility rules failed to consider the social and economic issues that affect
low-income workers’ employment patterns (Lovell and Hill 2001; Um’rani
and Lovell 2000). This was particularly true in the service sector, where
workers experienced higher turnover and informal employment arrange-
ments. From its inception, the design of the UI system created inequities
between “core” workers (such as unionized manufacturing workers) seek-
ing access to benefits and those on the “periphery.”
Prior to the onset of the Great Recession in 2007, part-time workers
were still largely ineligible for UI benefits because many states had inter-
preted “seeking employment” to mean searching for full-time employ-
ment (Wenger, McHugh, and Segal 2002). This stipulation is applied to
workers who have historically worked part-time as well as individuals
whose obligations, such as child care, prohibit them from working full-
time. This criterion disproportionately hinders UI eligibility for women,
since one-fourth of all unemployed women are seeking part-time jobs
(U.S. Department of Labor 2000). To aid these part-time job-seekers, the
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 sought to
expand UI eligibility among part-time workers. However, an analysis of
national data indicates that this policy change is likely to have little effect
(Shaefer 2010).
Overall, research also shows that the UI system tends to deny benefits
to many workers while many others fail to file for benefits (Lovell and Hill
2001; National Employment Law Project 2001a, 2001b; Um’rani and Lovell
2000). The cumulative effects are evidenced in the consistently lower fil-
ing rates and take-up rates for women, part-time workers, service-sector
workers, and those without union representation.3 In general, it appears
that the kinds of factors that limit eligibility (earnings requirements, inter-
mittent employment, rules for part-time employment, and other disquali-
fications) have a sizable impact on UI take-up rates. However, there are
other state-specific effects that reduce UI take-up but are more difficult to
ascribe to UI policy attributes.
Nevertheless, UI remains an important program, owing largely to a lack
of other resources for the working poor and the generally meager bene-
fits from other poverty assistance programs. In this chapter, I discuss the
structure of UI policy, focusing on the determinants of eligibility, financ- -1
ing, and benefit generosity and the disproportionate impact of these 0
+1
Policy Issues
To be eligible for UI benefits in a given state, a worker must satisfy three
requirements: meet or exceed the minimum earnings threshold; have a
qualifying reason for job separation; and be actively and continuously
searching for employment. The earnings threshold is set by each state
and helps determine the extent of labor force attachment, while separa-
tion requirements determine who was responsible for separation from
the job in question. In cases where the worker was responsible for the
job separation because he or she quit or was terminated for misconduct,
benefit payments are denied. When the employer lays off workers due to
slack demand, the unemployed person is most likely to meet the separa-
tion requirements. The final test of eligibility is whether the worker is able
to work and continuously available for work. An unemployed person is
eligible for UI benefits when all three conditions are met.
For many low-income workers who leave their jobs, the reasons for
job separation are complex. Many low-income workers quit employment
because of work conditions, personal illness, child care necessities, or
transportation issues. In most states, leaving employment as a result of
illness or to provide care or meet other family obligations is considered
“good cause,” and the UI policies in place allow workers to be eligible for
UI benefits. In other states, the requirements for establishing good cause
for illness or family obligations fall heavily on the employee. In these
states, a physician must advise leaving work for a worker to be eligible for
UI benefits due to illness, or the worker must negotiate with the employer
for reasonable accommodations. Both of these added requirements make
it more unlikely that workers will receive UI benefits, and if they are
eligible, it is unclear whether they will satisfy the “able and available”
requirements.
The second issue related to illness and family obligations is that these
factors tend to reduce wages and cause employment to be sporadic. Even
prior to welfare reform, most women who received welfare worked
-1 while receiving benefits, and most welfare exits occurred as a result of
0 transitioning to work (Harris 1993). However, work histories were often
+1
interrupted, and job tenures were short (Edin and Lein 1997). As a conse-
quence, workers earned less and thus found it more difficult to qualify for
UI benefits. With the current weak labor market and stagnant or declining
wages, many workers find it increasingly difficult to qualify for UI. Even
in the robust labor market of the late 1990s, many workers left welfare
and failed to earn enough money to quality for UI benefits (Boushey and
Wenger 2006).
A third issue facing the unemployed is the financing of the UI system.
Many state trust funds are depleted, requiring them to borrow heavily
from the federal government. The UI system has a negative net balance,
with total borrowing by the end of the third quarter of 2011 in excess of
$38 billion while trust fund balances equaled only $12.7 billion. In the
late 1970s and early 1980s, such trust fund insolvency led to consider-
able reductions in benefit generosity and eligibility. Similarly, between
2004 and 2009, twenty-five states made significant increases in the earn-
ings requirement necessary to qualify for UI benefits. Along these lines,
Daniel Smith and Jeffrey Wenger (2013) find that trust fund balances play
an important role in altering benefit generosity: when UI trust funds are
exhausted, the amount of available benefits falls, and the effect can be large
and last for a number of years. Also, given that the fiscal situation of the UI
trust funds is not likely to improve in the near future, legislatures will be
faced with the dilemma of raising taxes, cutting benefits, or reducing the
number of eligible beneficiaries. This will clearly have a disproportionate
impact on lower-income workers should they become unemployed.
Implementation Issues
Among the lesser-studied and more poorly understood aspects of the
UI system are the differences between state UI recipiency rates. The
recipiency rate, which is simply the ratio of the number of unemployed
individuals receiving regular UI benefits to the number of unemployed
individuals, varies widely across states. Six states have recipiency rates
that exceed 40 percent of the total unemployed population, while five
other states have rates below 20 percent. Although some of this difference
is due to industrial composition that differs by region and to varying poli-
cies that determine eligibility, these two aspects cannot fully explain the
wide range of recipiency rates across the United States.
Perhaps more disconcerting is the gap between total unemployment
in the United States and the percentage of unemployed receiving ben-
efits. When the unemployment rate peaked at 10.8 percent in Novem-
ber 1982, the percentage of the labor force receiving UI benefits was -1
5.4 percent—a ratio of 0.50. In the current economic downturn, national 0
+1
When the bureaucrat and the client share an attribute (such as race),
the bureaucrat may be more willing to stretch the rules to overcome past
discriminatory factors. In the administration of UI benefits, the majority of
bureaucrats are male, and they may be less willing (or able) to sympathize
with the combination of difficulties arising from child care and family
responsibilities combined with unemployment. Jeffrey Wenger and Vicky
Wilkins (2009) have tested this claim by examining the recent introduc-
tion of telephone claims in state unemployment insurance offices. Using
state-level panel data from 1992 to 2005, they estimate the effect of filing a
claim via telephone rather than in person. They contend that if street-level
bureaucrats in this agency use their discretion to disentitle and punish
clients they deem “undeserving” of policy benefits, then the introduction
of automation could increase UI payments for clients. Indeed, they found
that automated telephone claims filing increased the number of women
receiving UI benefits while having no effect on the number of men. They
posit that this finding is due in part to the elimination of the biases that
women previously faced when they entered a UI office.
Altering the amount of discretion that bureaucrats are able to exercise
or the number of errors made by frontline workers can have tremendous
effects on the UI system and UI recipients. Besides its possible effect on
eliminating biases against women clients, the automation of the claims
process has curtailed discretion in UI systems in other ways as well. In an
increasingly automated environment, bureaucrats have little control over
the input of data by claimants and management has increased opportuni-
ties for monitoring. Also, given the possibility that clients will deal with
multiple bureaucrats, coworkers can now identify agents whose denial
rates are higher or lower than the norm. In these ways, automation of the
UI system has been not entirely detrimental to the unemployed.
The public administration literature has also begun paying attention
to bureaucratic error as a critical performance measure. Unlike most pro-
grams, the UI program has systematically collected performance data
and independently audited those data to determine error responsibil-
ity (employer, employee, or agency). In a recent analysis of these data,
Sangyub Ryu, Jeffrey Wenger, and Vicky Wilkins (2012) examine the prob-
ability that a bureaucrat will make an error and theorize about the reasons
for bureaucratic errors. They find that the previous UI office error rate
is a good predictor of current error rates, demonstrating that poor per-
formers remain poor performers. This finding is somewhat disheartening
for UI claimants, in that low performance is systematic and often leads
to their being wrongfully denied benefits. Additionally, local offices with
high error rates account for a disproportionate percentage of the errors, -1
indicating a need to examine agency management. 0
+1
0.4
0.53
Alaska
0.28
California
0.38
Oregon
Washington
0.3
0.26
Nevada
0.23 0.240.22
Utah
Arizona
0.37
Source: Author’s compilation based on U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (various years).
New Mexico
0.32 Colorado
0.31 Wyoming
Idaho
0.41
Montana
0.18
Texas
0.29
Oklahoma
0.32
Louisiana
0.38
Arkansas
0.24
Mississippi
0.24
Alabama
0.18 0.19
Tennessee
0.22
Kentucky
Florida
0.24
Georgia
0.28 0.28
South Carolina
0.29
North Carolina
Region
West Virginia
0.22
Virginia
0.19
District of Columbia
0.33
Maryland
0.34
Delaware
Figure 9.2 UI Recipiency Rates (by Region), 2011
Kansas
0.3
0.43
Nebraska
0.19
South Dakota
0.36 0.36
North Dakota
0.25
Missouri
Iowa
0.33
Minnesota
0.42
Wisconsin
0.28
Michigan
Illinois
0.3
0.25
Indiana
0.24
Ohio
0.47
Pennsylvania
0.38 0.37 0.38
New Jersey
0.35
New York
Connecticut
0.27
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
0.45
Vermont
0.34
New Hampshire
0.31
Maine
-1
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
+1
UI Reporting Rate
First Payments
= α + β1Trend + β 2Unemployment Ratei ,t + σ i + µ i ,t (9.1)
Initial Claims i ,t
factors). It is interesting to note that in no case are we able to reject the null
hypothesis that the state-level fixed effects are jointly zero. This provides
at least tangential evidence that state-specific attributes such as imple-
mentation, culture, and the financial soundness of the UI program can
determine policy outcomes in a fundamental way. In general we find that
Northeastern states have higher recipiency rates and more generous ben-
efits, while states in the South fare considerably worse on both measures.
Multiple researchers have investigated the reasons behind the long-
term decline in UI recipiency, which peaked at 49.2 percent in 1975.5
Daniel McMurrer and Amy Chasinov (1995) investigated the reasons for
the long-term decline and concluded that the characteristics of the U.S.
labor force have changed in ways that systematically reduce recipiency.
Migration from the Midwest to the Southeast and Mountain regions of the
country, where UI recipiency rates are lower than the national average,
lowered overall recipiency; this finding is similar to the findings of Rebecca
Blank and David Card (1991). A second reason for the overall decline was
employment reductions in industries with traditionally higher UI recipi-
ency rates (construction, manufacturing, mining) as well as declines in
private-sector unionization rates. McMurrer and Chasinov also deter-
mined that the shift in demographics to a younger, more mobile, and more
female workforce led to lower UI recipiency rates.
Monetary Eligibility
Did differences among states make a difference in UI uptake? When we
examined whether states with illness and caregiving “good cause” exemp-
tions are more likely to pay benefits to workers, we found that these states
paid a small proportion of first payments as a fraction of initial claims. This
result held for the whole sample (1990 to 2010) and for the 2005 to 2010 sub-
sample. The difference between take-up rates in states with hard-to-satisfy
good cause exemptions compared to states with more liberal good cause
exemptions was statistically significant at better than the 1 percent level.
Table 9.1 provides summary information about the earnings require-
ments for UI eligibility in each state for the 2010 calendar year. As discussed
earlier, UI earnings requirements differ dramatically across the states.
Although some states have week- or hours-based requirements, states typi-
cally require earnings in multiple quarters. The base year constitutes the four
quarters of earnings that determine eligibility, with one of the four quarters
in the base period marked as the “high quarter” (that is, the quarter during
which the worker earned the most money during the base period). Some
states require relatively large earnings within the high quarter in order to -1
achieve eligibility; these high-quarter requirements are often more difficult 0
+1
-1
0
+1
prior to welfare reform (1990 to 1995), only thirteen states had raised their
earnings requirements at all. Consequently, as wages increased the pro-
portion of workers eligible to receive UI benefits in the event of becom-
ing unemployed also rose. Similarly, only nine states raised their earnings
requirements immediately following welfare reform (1995 to 2000). The last
period (2005 to 2010) paints quite a different picture—twenty-one states
raised their earnings requirement during this five-year span. Given the rela-
tively weak labor market and slow wage growth from 2005 to 2010, these
increases were significant. In fact, all of the increases were larger than the
median wage growth in the respective state over the same period.6
As an example, Massachusetts raised its earnings requirements at a
faster rate than the rate of growth in the median wage during all three time
periods—from $1,200 to $2,000 between 1990 and 1995, from $2,000 to $2,700
between 1995 and 2000, and from $3,000 to $3,500 between 2005 and 2010.
The cumulative increase, when compared with the rate of growth for the
average wage of women workers, paints an even bleaker picture. While the
earnings requirement nearly tripled ($3,500/$1,200 = 2.92), the median wage
of women in Massachusetts increased by less than double (from $9.20 to
$17.50; $17.50/$9.20 = 1.90). During the same time period, the median wage of
women across the United States also increased at a rate well below that of the
earnings requirement in Massachusetts (from $7.50 to $14.50; $14.50/$7.50 =
1.93). Massachusetts is not alone, however, in raising the earnings require-
ment at a rate greater than wage growth: Utah and New Mexico have also
engaged in the practice, despite state politics that are considerably differ-
ent. The determinants of earnings requirements certainly warrant additional
research since research on these factors is virtually nonexistent.
Further increases in earnings requirements are likely to come. As a way
to directly cut costs, states can reduce the total number of weeks that indi-
viduals are eligible to receive UI, reduce benefit amounts, reduce access to
the program, or enact a combination of these approaches. Given the poor
fiscal health of the UI trusts, states are likely to reduce access to their UI
programs by continuing to raise earnings requirements for eligibility. It
is likely that it was more difficult to make changes in 2012 since it was an
election year, but steps to reduce access are likely to be taken in 2013. Addi-
tionally, raising the earnings requirements directly affects the lowest-wage
workers who are the most vulnerable, but as a “technical” issue, it captures
scant media or public attention.
However, there are still more than 50 percent of job-quitters who leave
work for job-related reasons. Recent research has focused attention on job
retention for lower-wage workers; in general, the results have not been
encouraging. From 2003 to 2006, a series of experimental studies were
conducted in seven regions of the United Kingdom. In the Employment
Retention and Advancement Program, workers were provided with advi-
sory and financial incentives to help sustain their employment and pro-
mote their job advancement. A rigorous evaluation of the experimental
evidence found short-term earnings gains for two of the single-parent
treatment groups, generally in the form of a larger proportion of the treat-
ment group working more hours. By year three there were no differences
between control and experimental groups on most measures. However,
the long-term unemployed treatment group, consisting mostly of men,
experienced significant, substantial, and sustained increases in earnings
(see Hendra et al. 2011).
Another set of studies in the United States used random assignment
design to test the effectiveness of programs designed to help “at-risk”
workers stay employed and advance in their jobs. Of the twelve sites eval-
uated by MDRC, only three had positive impacts. Although this evalua-
tion demonstrates that policy interventions aimed at employee retention
can work, it also points to the difficulty of developing, implementing, and
maintaining these programs, since 75 percent of them showed no signifi-
cant improvements. Even among the programs that were successful, dif-
ferences between experimental and control groups tended to fade over
time. Finally, rates of job loss among the at-risk population were high, and
staffing the program with qualified candidates was difficult. This second
issue was critical, since the actions of the staff were often instrumental in
influencing work outcomes for program participants.
Overall, the experimental evidence on job retention is somewhat dis-
couraging. In their review of the policy evaluation literature, Harry Holzer
and Karin Martinson (2005, 21) find that “relatively few programs improve
retention and advancement with certainty. Many promising efforts have
not yet been rigorously evaluated; others have, but their success rate is
mixed, and our ability to replicate successes and implement them on
a large scale remains uncertain.” They also describe some policies that
might be helpful in mending the safety net for low-income workers. In
general, financial incentives and supports tend to be more successful than
programs without these features. Policies that promote full-time work and
longer spells of employment are more likely to enable workers to qualify
for benefits if they should be laid off. Despite these attempts to ensure
qualification for benefits, however, “voluntary” turnover among the low- -1
paid remains high. 0
+1
Generate policies that require states to have adequate UI trust fund reserves.
In the absence of adequate reserves, states reduce access to the pro-
gram by raising earnings requirements and making programs less
generous by lowering benefit amounts or weeks of benefits available
to unemployed workers, or both.
To build adequate trust fund reserves the federal government should
raise the wage base used to assess UI taxes to equal the social security wage
base and index it to wage growth. This change will make the program
considerably more progressive and less tax-distortionary (that is, it
will broaden the base and lower the tax).
-1 Reduce employers’ tax burden by shifting the bulk of UI taxes onto workers.
0 Only the firm-specific turnover proportion of UI taxes should be
+1
assessed to the firm. The worker should pay the base tax rate associ-
ated with the industry. Changes to this type of financing will result
in an experience-rated system, but one that changes the employee’s
expectations about benefits and changes the political economy of
UI legislation and representation on UI boards. The added advan-
tage of this change is that when the UI trust funds are solvent and
legislatures provide a UI tax holiday, workers will see their wages
increase in the short term.
The U.S. Department of Labor should analyze—and independent researchers
should evaluate—states with low levels of UI recipiency. Do states with low
levels of UI recipiency have disparate benefit eligibility for low-income
workers? If so, can advocates pressure those states to raise recipiency
rates? As discussed at length here, monetary eligibility is not the most
significant barrier for most workers. Advocates should focus more
attention on getting states to adopt and enforce “good cause” leaving.
The penalties for voluntary leaving, discharge for misconduct, and
refusal of suitable work have all increased since the 1950s. Instead of
disqualifying workers for the duration of the unemployment spell, we
could work to make benefits available after a suitable waiting period.
Overall, there are simple and significant changes to UI policy that would
make benefits more readily available to low-income workers. Since ben-
efits are unlikely to replace more than 50 percent of lost wages, low-income
workers may not receive much in the way of benefits from the UI program.
However, in difficult labor markets with limited job openings and high
unemployment, a small benefit from the UI system may make a substantial
difference in the lives and livelihoods of families.
Notes
1. With programs in the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Washington, D.C.,
there are actually fifty-three “state” programs. We analyze the performance of
all the states and Washington, D.C., in this chapter.
2. In this context, I am using “low-income” to denote both workers who had insuf-
ficient earnings to qualify for unemployment benefits and those who worked in
historically low-wage industries, such as agriculture and domestic service, who
were excluded from UI coverage.
3. In general, filing has become less common among the unemployed, as discussed
by Stephen Wandner and Andrew Stettner (2000). Many of the unemployed fail
to file for unemployment benefits because they do not believe that they are -1
eligible or that they worked or earned enough to receive benefits. Additionally, 0
+1
some stated that they voluntarily left their previous employment or that they
expect to have a new job soon. However, we do not know if this effect differs by
gender, since Wandner and Stettner (2000) do not provide a separate analysis
for men and women.
4. Note that in the current recession the peak in the insured unemployment rate
(the percentage of unemployed receiving benefits) occurred in June 2009 at
4.8 percent, when the unemployment rate was 9.5 percent.
5. This was the annual average in 1975. The rates shown in figure 9.1 are based
on monthly data.
6. All comparisons use nominal median wage growth in the state and nominal
increases in UI base period earnings requirements.
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-1
0
+1
John Schmitt
About half of all U.S. residents without health insurance are workers
(Rho and Schmitt 2010a). Indeed, non-elderly workers are less likely to
have health insurance than many groups generally viewed as more eco-
nomically vulnerable. According to the most recent census data, for exam-
ple, only 2 percent of adults age sixty-five and older and about 10 percent
of children under the age of eighteen lacked health insurance coverage in
2010. By contrast, about 20 percent of workers age eighteen to sixty-four—
and 15 percent of full-time workers in that age range—had no health
insurance in the same year (U.S. Census Bureau 2011, 26–27, table 8).
Yet, we know surprisingly little about workers and their health insurance
or how their coverage has changed over the last three decades.1 In recent
years, the annual reports on health insurance coverage produced by the Cen-
sus Bureau have included a brief mention of the share of workers with health
insurance, but these same published data give no breakdowns by workers’
earnings, gender, race, or education level, and no breakdowns by the source
of coverage (their own employer, a spouse’s employer, Medicaid, Medicare,
directly purchased private insurance, or other sources).2 Moreover, consis-
tent, publicly available data for workers’ coverage start only in the late 1990s,
long after the decline in overall health insurance rates was well under way.3
The most important attempt to fill this data gap has been the regular
estimates produced by the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) for its bien- -1
nial publication The State of Working America.4 The EPI figures, however, 0
+1
273
gibility for Medicaid for low-wage workers in families below 133 percent
of the federal poverty line and federal subsidies for the purchase of private
insurance for low-wage workers in families between 100 and 400 percent of
the poverty line.8 If, however, full implementation of the ACA is blocked
by federal or state executive or legislative action before 2014, every indi-
cation is that low-wage workers will continue to lose access to health
insurance.
100
92.2
78.9
Percentage of Workers
65.6
51.8
42.9
0
1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Source: Author’s analysis of March Current Population Survey (Center for Economic and
Policy Research 2013).
Insurance Program, or CHIP). Almost all workers (and all U.S. residents)
age sixty-five and older are covered by Medicare, the universal, single-payer
health insurance program for the elderly established in 1965.
30
28.1
Percentage of Workers
19.3
17.9
15.2
11.6
Bottom Quintile
5.0 Second Quintile
Top Quintile
0
1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Source: Author’s analysis of March Current Population Survey (Center for Economic and
Policy Research 2013).
between 1979 and 2010. But coverage losses were almost as large for
workers in the second quintile (down 13.8 percentage points) and the top
quintile (down 13.3 percentage points).
A rise in families with second earners, particularly women in married-
couple families, could arguably have reduced the need for own-employer
coverage, because second earners may be able to obtain coverage through
their spouse (or, in some cases, through another family member). Figure 10.2
shows that for low-wage workers, coverage through a spouse’s (or another
family member’s) employer has not made up for the decline in own-
employer insurance. In fact, for low-wage workers, coverage through a
spouse or other family member actually fell ten percentage points between
1979 and 2010. Workers in the second quintile saw a similar, but smaller,
decline. Coverage through another family member’s employer, however,
did increase for workers in the top quintile (and, to a smaller degree, for
workers in the fourth quintile [not shown]).11
Nor have low-wage workers been able to make up for the decline in -1
employer-provided coverage through other forms of private insurance— 0
+1
10
8.1
7.6
Percentage of Workers
5.4
4.6
3.6
Bottom Quintile
1.6 Second Quintile
Top Quintile
0
1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Source: Author’s analysis of March Current Population Survey (Center for Economic and
Policy Research 2013).
20
Bottom Quintile
Second Quintile
Top Quintile
Percentage of Workers
12.8
8.8 8.5
6.3
4.4
2.6
0
1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Source: Author’s analysis of March Current Population Survey (Center for Economic and
Policy Research 2013).
15
Bottom Quintile
Second Quintile
Top Quintile
Percentage of Workers
9.6
4.7 5.1
3.3
0.9 1.3
0
1980 1990 2000 2010
-1
Year
0
+1
Source: Author’s analysis of March Current Population Survey (Center for Economic and
Policy Research 2013).
50
Bottom Quintile
Second Quintile
Percentage of Workers
22.8
16.4
8.2
0.3 4.5
0
1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Source: Author’s analysis of March Current Population Survey (Center for Economic and
Policy Research 2013).
50
White
Black
Percentage of Workers
Latino 37.9
Asian
22.3 22.3
17.1
13.3 11.8
10.5
4.5
0
1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Source: Author’s analysis of March Current Population Survey (Center for Economic and
Policy Research 2013).
Future Trends
The decline in coverage rates has its roots in two long-standing economic
processes. The first is the rising cost of health care, which has squeezed
workers’ wages and made it less economical for firms to offer health insur-
ance, especially to low-wage workers. In the absence of reforms to the
existing health care system, these costs—and implicitly the pressure on
workers’ after-health-insurance compensation—are projected to continue
rising indefinitely.12
The other force behind falling coverage rates, especially for low-wage
workers, is the decline over the last three decades in the bargaining power
of most workers. Beginning in the late 1970s, a set of structural changes -1
in the economy significantly reduced the bargaining power of workers, 0
+1
especially those at the middle and bottom of the wage distribution. These
structural changes included: a steep decline in unionization; an erosion
in the inflation-adjusted value of the minimum wage; the deregulation of
many historically high-wage industries (trucking, airlines, telecommuni-
cations, and others); the privatization of many state and local government
functions (from school cafeteria workers to public-assistance adminis-
trators); the opening up of the U.S. economy to much higher volumes of
foreign trade; a sharp rise in the share of immigrant workers, who often
lack basic legal rights and operate in an economy that provides few labor
protections regardless of citizenship; and a macroeconomic policy envi-
ronment that has typically maintained the unemployment rate well above
levels consistent with full employment. All of these changes have acted to
reduce the bargaining power of workers, especially those at the middle
and bottom of the wage distribution. As a result, low- and middle-wage
workers have seen their relative (and even absolute) wages fall and the
availability and quality of health insurance and retirement plans decline.13
Despite the Great Recession and the ensuing national debate on eco-
nomic inequality, there are few signs—at least at the time of this writing—
that any of these structural factors undermining workers’ bargaining
power are likely to change anytime soon. The passage of the Affordable
Care Act in 2010, however, holds out the prospect that low-wage work-
ers could see a significant expansion in their health insurance coverage
rates—and at least some possibility that the rate of growth of health care
costs could be reduced relative to the long-term trend.
coverage or that have employees who rely on government tax credits to ful-
fill their personal requirement to maintain coverage will pay a tax penalty.16
Smaller employers will not face tax penalties, but many will be eligible to
receive tax credits for providing coverage and will be permitted to buy
insurance through newly created, state-level health insurance exchanges.
However, expansions of coverage through the existing Medicaid program
and through new health insurance exchanges for individual and family cov-
erage are likely to provide the biggest boost in coverage to low-wage workers.
Low-wage workers who have family incomes above 100 percent of the pov-
erty line and whose employers either do not provide insurance or provide
insurance that is deemed too expensive by ACA criteria will be eligible to
receive a federal subsidy to buy private insurance through a health exchange,
as long as their family income is less than 400 percent of the poverty line.
Two kinds of uncertainty hang over any analysis of the likely impact of
the ACA on low-wage workers. The first uncertainty is the exact nature of
the final form of the law and related regulations. On the judicial front, the
ACA has survived several court challenges centered on the constitutionality
of the individual mandate.17 On the legislative front, however, Republicans
in the House and Senate have vowed to repeal all or part of the ACA. At the
state level, several Republican governors and Republican-controlled state
legislatures have announced their intention to block or slow the implemen-
tation of key aspects of the ACA, especially those related to the expansion of
Medicaid, which is particularly important for low-wage workers.18
The second element of uncertainty is related to the inherent difficulties
in predicting individual and institutional responses to large and complex
changes in existing systems, an issue compounded by the fact that many
particulars of the law—especially those involving the workings of the
separate state-level insurance exchanges and the states’ decisions about
full implementation of the ACA’s proposed Medicaid expansion—are still
evolving.19 The following analysis assumes that the ACA will be imple-
mented as passed, and it relies on the educated guesses made by health
care experts concerning the final features and behavioral responses to the
system put in place from 2014 forward.
With these caveats in mind, the Congressional Budget Office (2011, 17)
projects that under the ACA, “the share of legal non-elderly residents with
insurance coverage in 2021 will be about 95 percent, compared with a pro-
jected share of about 82 percent in the absence of that legislation (and an esti-
mated 83 percent currently).” Meanwhile, CBO continues, “about 23 million
non-elderly residents will remain uninsured; about one-third of that group
will be unauthorized immigrants, who are not eligible to participate in Med-
icaid or the insurance exchanges; another quarter will be eligible for Med- -1
icaid but are not expected to enroll; and the remaining fraction will include 0
+1
individuals who are ineligible for subsidies, are exempt from the mandate
to obtain insurance, choose to not comply with the mandate (and take the
risk of paying a penalty), or have some combination of those characteristics.”
Other researchers generally agree with the CBO that the ACA will result
in a substantial increase in coverage rates.20 Disagreements arise, however,
around the likely mix of coverage. The CBO, like most analysts, believes
that the large majority of the increase in coverage will flow from increases
in directly purchased insurance (which is particularly relevant for workers
in families between 100 and 400 percent of the poverty line) and Medicaid
(particularly relevant for workers in families with incomes below 133 per-
cent of the poverty line), with only a small net decline in employer-provided
coverage.21 The net drop in employer-based coverage, the CBO believes,
will reflect declines in employer offers of coverage. Those declines will be
made up disproportionately of “smaller employers and employers with
predominantly lower-wage workers—people who will be eligible for Med-
icaid or subsidies through the exchanges,” and will largely offset increases
in coverage through other employers responding to the “combined impact
of the insurance mandate, the penalties for employers, and the tax credits
for small employers” (Congressional Budget Office 2011, 19–20). Other ana-
lysts believe that the high costs of providing health insurance to low-wage
workers will lead many employers to reduce their provision of coverage,
pushing many workers currently covered by employer plans onto Medicaid
and the new state-level health exchanges.22
For present purposes, however, the exact mix of the coverage is less rel-
evant than the net increase in total coverage for low-wage workers, which
by almost all accounts is likely to be substantial. Unfortunately, neither the
CBO nor other sources have produced coverage projections for workers
specifically, let alone for low-wage workers. The CBO estimate of a 95 per-
cent coverage rate for the non-elderly population in 2016, however, can—
with a few assumptions about the distribution of this coverage—give some
general guidance about the likely improvement in health insurance access
for low-wage workers.
To produce a rough estimate of the share of low-wage workers who will
remain without coverage after the implementation of the ACA, let’s start with
the CBO’s projection that by 2016 the noncoverage rate for the non-elderly
population of the United States will be 5 percent. The CBO does not provide
a separate breakdown for children (ages zero to seventeen) and adults (ages
eighteen to sixty-four), but we can assume that improvements in coverage
will maintain the same (roughly) two-to-one ratio for the noncoverage rates
of adults to children. Given the relative size of the child and adult popula-
-1 tions in 2010, a 5 percent overall noncoverage rate and the two-to-one ratio
0 imply that the noncoverage rate for all adults will be about 5.8 percent after
+1
the ACA (and 2.9 percent for children). For simplicity, if we assume that all
adults—both workers and nonworkers—have the same coverage rate, then
under the CBO’s projections, workers as a group will have a 5.8 percent non-
coverage rate after the ACA.23 By comparison, in 2010 the actual noncover-
age rate for all workers was about 17.7 percent. The CBO gives no guidance
about how the coverage improvements for workers will be divided across
the wage distribution. If, at the extreme, we assume that all of the uncovered
workers are low-wage workers by our definition—that is, that all 5.8 percent
of the workers remaining without coverage are in the bottom quintile—then
the noncoverage rate for low-wage workers will be about 29.0 percent.24 This
would be a reduction of one-fourth in the share of low-wage workers without
coverage relative to the actual noncoverage rate for low-wage workers in 2010
(38.5 percent). A less extreme assumption about the distribution of noncover-
age rates by wage level after the ACA produces larger gains for low-wage
workers. For example, if instead we assume that the top 80 percent of workers
have a frictional 3 percent noncoverage rate, then an overall noncoverage rate
for workers of 5.8 percent implies a 17.0 percent noncoverage rate for low-
wage workers—well short of universal coverage, but a noncoverage rate that
is less than half of the current rate.
Massachusetts
The recent experience of Massachusetts provides an important bench-
mark for the likely impact of the ACA.25 The 2006 Massachusetts reforms
included many key elements that would be written into the ACA, including
an individual mandate, a (weak) penalty for employers that fail to provide
coverage, expanded eligibility for Medicaid, and government subsidies to
purchase private insurance for individuals in families with incomes up to
300 percent of the federal poverty line.26 Early results suggest that this com-
bination of policies has substantially increased health insurance coverage
in the state. Sharon Long, Lokendra Phadera, and Victoria Lynch (2010),
for example, find that after the implementation of the reforms, the share of
the state’s population between the ages of nineteen and sixty-four without
coverage was less than 6 percent, compared to a 15 percent rate for the rest
of the nation. Massachusetts had higher coverage rates than the rest of the
country even before the 2006 reforms. But as suggested by Sharon Long,
Alshadye Yemane, and Karen Stockley’s (2010) comparison of changes in
coverage rates in Massachusetts before and after the 2008 implementation
of the reforms with the change over the same period in coverage rates in
New York State—which also had relatively high coverage rates but was
not implementing any reforms—the reforms did substantially increase -1
coverage rates for non-elderly adults. Aakanksha Pande and her colleagues 0
+1
Conclusion
Overall, health insurance coverage for low-wage workers has been fall-
ing steadily over the last three decades. The drop in employer-provided
health insurance coverage is the single most important explanation for
this trend. A rise in the share of low-wage workers receiving Medicaid
was able to counteract only a small portion of the falloff in coverage
for low-wage workers. However, based on reasonable projections of
the impact of the ACA, as well as on the experience of Massachusetts
with state-level reforms similar in spirit to the ACA, recent reforms to
the health insurance system stand a reasonable chance of reversing this
long-standing trend.
Low-wage workers are likely to be among the biggest beneficiaries of
the ACA, particularly those provisions that seek to increase employer-
sponsored insurance, expand access to Medicaid, and subsidize the pur-
chase of private insurance. The coverage gap between low-wage workers
-1 and the rest of the workforce will almost certainly fall sharply after 2014.
0
+1
The ACA does not provide the universal coverage that many health
care reformers were seeking before the bill’s passage, but the ACA may
also act, in the words of economist Heather Boushey (2012), as a “beach-
head” for universal coverage down the line. If, however, full implementa-
tion of the ACA is blocked or delayed, every indication is that coverage
rates will continue their three-decades-long decline.
-1
0
+1
+1
APPENDIX
13502-11_CH10-3rdPgs.indd 288
Table 10A.1 Adjusted Health Insurance Coverage of Low-Wage Workers, Age Eighteen to Sixty-Four,
1979 to 2010
Private Health Insurance
Public Health Insurance
Health Employment-Based
Insurance Other Other
Year (Total) Total Total Own Private Total Medicaid Public
1979 83.6% 78.7% 71.1% 42.9% 7.6% 8.8% 4.7% 4.0%
1980 n.a. n.a. 70.4 42.3 n.a. 8.6 4.5 4.0
1981 n.a. n.a. 69.7 41.9 n.a. 8.7 4.2 4.4
1982 77.3 72.4 67.6 39.9 4.8 7.8 3.6 4.1
1983 77.1 72.5 65.9 38.2 6.6 7.4 3.2 4.1
1984 75.2 69.8 63.3 36.0 6.5 8.3 3.8 4.4
1985 75.1 69.6 63.0 35.4 6.6 8.8 4.0 4.7
1986 74.0 68.3 62.0 35.2 6.3 8.7 4.1 4.5
1987 73.1 67.0 60.6 34.3 6.5 9.0 4.4 4.6
1988 72.4 66.3 59.1 34.7 7.3 8.6 4.3 4.3
1989 72.0 64.7 58.1 33.7 6.7 10.0 4.8 5.2
1990 70.5 62.8 56.2 32.8 6.7 10.4 5.5 4.9
1991 69.3 61.2 55.1 31.9 6.2 10.8 5.8 5.0
1992 67.9 59.1 52.9 30.9 6.3 11.4 6.5 4.9
12/10/13 8:34 AM
1993 69.0 61.0 53.3 33.8 7.8 11.5 7.1 4.4
1994 68.5 60.5 52.7 33.8 7.8 11.6 7.4 4.2
1995 68.5 60.2 53.1 34.0 7.1 11.1 7.6 3.5
13502-11_CH10-3rdPgs.indd 289
1996 68.7 60.0 52.5 34.0 7.5 11.9 8.3 3.6
1997 67.7 59.7 52.7 33.9 7.0 11.1 7.7 3.4
1998 67.8 60.1 53.2 33.2 6.9 10.8 7.5 3.3
1999 67.3 59.6 52.8 32.9 6.8 10.7 7.5 3.2
2000 67.0 64.2 57.2 33.5 7.0 9.9 6.7 3.2
2001 66.6 59.3 52.1 33.0 7.2 10.1 7.1 3.0
2002 65.5 57.9 51.0 32.3 6.9 10.7 7.5 3.2
2003 63.8 55.8 48.9 31.4 6.9 10.9 7.7 3.2
2004 64.7 56.3 48.8 30.9 7.5 11.7 8.7 3.0
2005 64.0 55.0 48.1 30.8 6.9 12.3 9.1 3.2
2006 62.9 54.2 47.4 30.1 6.8 11.6 8.7 2.9
2007 64.3 55.2 48.0 30.9 7.2 12.3 9.1 3.2
2008 62.6 53.4 46.1 29.8 7.3 12.4 9.4 3.0
2009 60.1 49.7 43.0 27.5 6.7 13.4 10.5 2.9
2010 61.5 51.9 43.8 25.9 8.1 12.8 9.6 3.2
12/10/13 8:34 AM
0
-1
+1
0
-1
+1
13502-11_CH10-3rdPgs.indd 290
Table 10A.2 Adjusted Health Insurance Coverage of Second-Quintile Workers, Age Eighteen to Sixty-Four,
1979 to 2010
Private Health Insurance
Public Health Insurance
Health Employment-Based
Insurance Other Other
Year (Total) Total Total Own Private Total Medicaid Public
1979 91.8% 89.5% 84.9% 65.6% 4.6% 6.3% 3.3% 3.1%
1980 n.a. n.a. 86.7 67.0 n.a. 6.4 3.2 3.3
1981 n.a. n.a. 86.7 67.0 n.a. 7.1 3.2 4.0
1982 91.0 88.7 86.1 66.0 2.6 6.1 2.6 3.6
1983 91.1 89.0 84.9 65.6 4.1 5.6 2.3 3.4
1984 89.4 87.1 83.3 64.0 3.8 6.3 2.7 3.7
1985 88.7 86.4 82.7 63.6 3.7 5.6 2.4 3.3
1986 88.2 86.0 82.1 62.1 3.9 6.0 2.5 3.6
1987 87.5 85.1 81.0 61.2 4.0 6.3 2.6 3.7
1988 86.3 84.1 79.1 60.4 4.9 6.0 2.4 3.6
1989 85.4 81.7 77.2 58.6 4.4 7.5 2.9 4.6
1990 84.9 81.0 76.4 56.9 4.5 8.1 3.1 5.0
1991 84.7 80.4 76.2 57.2 4.1 8.5 3.5 5.0
1992 82.1 77.8 72.9 55.2 4.8 8.0 3.8 4.2
1993 82.5 78.9 73.7 58.1 5.1 8.1 3.9 4.2
12/10/13 8:34 AM
1994 82.1 78.5 73.4 57.9 5.1 8.0 3.9 4.1
1995 81.6 78.1 72.9 56.9 5.2 7.3 3.4 3.9
1996 82.3 78.6 73.7 56.8 4.9 7.7 4.1 3.6
13502-11_CH10-3rdPgs.indd 291
1997 81.2 78.0 73.7 57.3 4.3 7.0 3.2 3.8
1998 81.7 78.6 74.3 57.5 4.3 6.4 3.0 3.4
1999 81.3 78.2 74.0 57.2 4.2 6.2 2.9 3.3
2000 81.9 81.2 77.1 59.2 4.1 5.6 2.6 3.0
2001 80.7 77.5 73.2 57.5 4.3 6.2 3.1 3.1
2002 79.6 76.4 72.0 56.2 4.4 6.4 3.3 3.1
2003 78.3 74.7 70.7 54.9 4.0 6.6 3.3 3.3
2004 78.4 73.9 69.3 54.0 4.6 8.0 4.7 3.3
2005 78.0 73.8 68.7 52.5 5.1 7.3 4.1 3.2
2006 76.8 72.7 68.4 53.5 4.3 7.5 4.7 2.8
2007 77.5 72.8 68.0 53.8 4.8 7.7 4.4 3.3
2008 78.1 73.5 69.0 54.1 4.5 7.7 4.6 3.1
2009 77.0 71.8 66.8 52.8 5.0 8.7 5.3 3.4
2010 77.2 72.4 67.0 51.8 5.4 8.5 5.1 3.4
12/10/13 8:34 AM
0
-1
+1
0
-1
+1
13502-11_CH10-3rdPgs.indd 292
Table 10A.3 Adjusted Health Insurance Coverage of Middle-Quintile Workers, Age Eighteen to Sixty-Four,
1979 to 2010
Private Health Insurance
Public Health Insurance
Health Employment-Based
Insurance Other Other
Year (Total) Total Total Own Private Total Medicaid Public
1979 94.5% 93.1% 89.6% 75.9% 3.4% 5.8% 1.8% 4.1%
1980 n.a. n.a. 90.2 75.7 n.a. 5.6 1.7 4.0
1981 n.a. n.a. 89.7 75.4 n.a. 6.5 1.4 5.2
1982 93.8 92.7 90.0 75.7 2.6 5.5 1.3 4.3
1983 93.8 92.6 89.4 75.3 3.1 5.2 1.1 4.2
1984 93.4 92.2 88.8 74.7 3.3 5.3 1.2 4.2
1985 93.4 92.1 88.9 74.4 3.1 5.5 1.3 4.3
1986 93.6 92.1 89.1 74.2 2.9 5.4 1.3 4.2
1987 93.5 91.7 88.7 73.7 3.0 5.6 1.3 4.2
1988 93.2 91.2 88.0 74.0 3.2 5.7 1.4 4.2
1989 93.3 90.5 87.4 72.6 3.1 6.7 1.4 5.2
1990 93.0 90.3 87.0 72.1 3.3 6.2 1.5 4.6
1991 92.7 89.5 86.4 71.3 3.1 6.7 1.7 4.9
1992 91.8 88.9 85.8 69.8 3.1 6.3 1.6 4.6
1993 91.0 88.5 84.4 70.7 4.1 6.2 1.8 4.3
12/10/13 8:34 AM
1994 90.7 88.3 84.1 70.5 4.1 5.9 1.8 4.1
1995 90.1 87.9 83.2 69.4 4.6 5.5 1.7 3.8
1996 90.2 88.0 83.3 68.8 4.6 5.7 1.7 4.0
13502-11_CH10-3rdPgs.indd 293
1997 90.5 88.5 84.8 69.6 3.6 4.7 1.4 3.3
1998 90.2 88.3 84.7 70.7 3.6 4.6 1.3 3.3
1999 89.9 88.1 84.6 70.5 3.5 4.5 1.3 3.2
2000 89.5 89.0 86.1 71.1 2.9 4.2 1.3 2.9
2001 89.8 87.9 84.4 70.8 3.5 4.3 1.4 2.9
2002 88.9 86.8 83.3 68.7 3.5 4.7 1.6 3.1
2003 88.4 86.6 82.9 69.0 3.7 4.8 1.7 3.1
2004 88.2 86.0 82.5 69.2 3.5 5.7 2.5 3.2
2005 88.4 86.0 82.3 68.6 3.7 5.7 2.4 3.3
2006 87.7 85.4 81.8 68.0 3.6 5.4 2.4 3.0
2007 88.0 85.6 81.7 67.9 3.9 6.0 2.6 3.4
2008 87.5 84.7 81.1 67.4 3.6 6.1 2.7 3.4
2009 87.2 84.0 80.2 66.8 3.8 6.9 3.3 3.6
2010 86.8 83.6 79.6 66.0 4.0 6.4 2.9 3.5
12/10/13 8:34 AM
0
-1
+1
0
-1
+1
13502-11_CH10-3rdPgs.indd 294
Table 10A.4 Adjusted Health Insurance Coverage of Fourth-Quintile Workers, Age Eighteen to Sixty-Four,
1979 to 2010
Private Health Insurance
Public Health Insurance
Health Employment-Based
Insurance Other Other
Year (Total) Total Total Own Private Total Medicaid Public
1979 97.8% 96.6% 95.5% 87.3% 1.2% 4.8% 1.5% 3.3%
1980 n.a. n.a. 96.8 88.5 n.a. 4.7 1.3 3.4
1981 n.a. n.a. 97.1 89.2 n.a. 4.9 1.1 3.8
1982 98.3 97.1 96.6 88.2 0.6 4.9 0.9 4.0
1983 98.2 97.2 96.6 87.6 0.7 4.4 0.8 3.6
1984 97.7 96.6 95.4 86.1 1.3 4.5 0.8 3.7
1985 98.0 96.9 96.1 86.8 0.9 4.6 0.9 3.7
1986 98.3 97.3 96.3 86.5 1.1 4.6 0.8 3.8
1987 98.2 97.2 96.0 85.9 1.2 4.7 0.8 3.9
1988 97.6 96.5 95.2 84.8 1.3 5.0 0.8 4.2
1989 98.1 96.2 94.3 84.0 1.9 5.3 0.8 4.5
1990 97.5 95.8 93.9 83.3 1.9 5.5 0.8 4.7
1991 97.6 95.9 94.5 83.1 1.4 5.6 0.8 4.8
1992 97.0 95.1 93.2 81.5 1.9 5.5 0.9 4.6
1993 96.3 94.6 92.2 81.7 2.4 5.5 1.0 4.5
12/10/13 8:34 AM
1994 96.0 94.3 91.9 81.3 2.4 5.4 1.0 4.4
1995 95.4 93.6 91.2 80.1 2.4 5.1 1.2 3.9
1996 96.2 94.6 92.1 80.2 2.5 4.6 1.1 3.5
13502-11_CH10-3rdPgs.indd 295
1997 95.7 94.3 91.6 79.7 2.7 4.2 0.8 3.4
1998 95.2 93.8 91.4 79.9 2.4 4.2 0.8 3.4
1999 94.9 93.6 91.1 79.3 2.5 4.0 0.8 3.2
2000 94.1 93.3 91.0 79.0 2.3 3.5 0.7 2.8
2001 94.1 93.0 90.5 78.5 2.5 3.5 0.9 2.6
2002 93.6 92.2 89.7 77.2 2.5 4.2 0.8 3.4
2003 93.5 92.2 89.2 76.3 3.0 3.9 1.0 2.9
2004 93.5 92.0 88.9 75.8 3.1 4.8 1.3 3.5
2005 92.9 91.3 88.1 75.1 3.2 4.7 1.4 3.3
2006 92.1 90.5 87.2 74.4 3.3 4.5 1.5 3.0
2007 93.2 91.7 88.5 75.9 3.2 4.5 1.3 3.2
2008 93.1 91.3 88.3 75.4 3.0 4.6 1.3 3.3
2009 92.1 90.2 86.9 74.9 3.3 5.2 1.7 3.5
2010 92.6 90.6 87.1 74.6 3.5 5.2 1.9 3.3
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0
-1
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13502-11_CH10-3rdPgs.indd 296
Table 10A.5 Adjusted Health Insurance Coverage of Top-Quintile Workers, Age Eighteen to Sixty-Four,
1979 to 2010
Private Health Insurance
Public Health Insurance
Health Employment-Based
Insurance Other Other
Year (Total) Total Total Own Private Total Medicaid Public
1979 99.7% 98.8% 97.2% 92.2% 1.6% 2.6% 0.9% 1.7%
1980 n.a. n.a. 98.1 92.6 n.a. 2.8 0.8 2.0
1981 n.a. n.a. 98.6 93.4 n.a. 4.0 0.9 3.1
1982 100.2 99.3 98.8 93.2 0.5 3.3 0.7 2.6
1983 99.8 99.1 98.4 92.5 0.7 3.1 0.6 2.5
1984 99.4 98.6 97.6 91.5 1.0 3.3 0.7 2.6
1985 99.4 98.6 97.6 91.5 1.0 3.4 0.8 2.6
1986 99.5 98.5 98.0 91.3 0.5 3.3 0.8 2.5
1987 99.4 98.3 97.7 90.7 0.6 3.3 0.8 2.5
1988 99.0 98.0 97.4 90.0 0.6 2.8 0.8 2.0
1989 99.3 97.7 96.6 88.8 1.1 3.8 0.9 2.9
1990 98.9 97.4 96.1 87.8 1.3 3.9 0.8 3.1
1991 99.0 97.5 96.0 87.5 1.5 3.6 0.9 2.7
1992 98.8 97.2 95.4 86.2 1.8 3.6 0.8 2.8
1993 97.5 96.1 93.4 85.4 2.7 4.1 0.9 3.2
12/10/13 8:34 AM
1994 97.2 95.9 93.0 84.8 2.9 4.0 0.8 3.2
1995 97.2 96.1 93.1 84.0 3.0 3.2 0.8 2.4
1996 97.1 96.0 93.0 83.9 3.0 3.1 0.8 2.3
13502-11_CH10-3rdPgs.indd 297
1997 97.0 96.1 93.2 83.5 2.9 2.8 0.6 2.2
1998 96.7 95.9 93.1 83.1 2.8 2.8 0.4 2.4
1999 96.5 95.8 93.0 82.6 2.8 2.7 0.4 2.3
2000 96.0 95.6 93.2 82.1 2.4 2.7 0.5 2.2
2001 95.5 94.7 92.0 81.1 2.7 3.0 0.7 2.3
2002 95.6 94.7 91.4 80.7 3.3 3.0 0.5 2.5
2003 95.7 94.9 91.8 80.7 3.1 3.1 0.6 2.5
2004 95.9 94.9 91.3 79.8 3.6 3.7 0.9 2.8
2005 95.6 94.6 91.1 79.5 3.5 3.9 1.0 2.9
2006 95.6 94.6 90.8 79.1 3.8 3.6 1.0 2.6
2007 95.6 94.6 90.6 79.1 4.0 3.7 1.0 2.7
2008 95.6 94.3 90.9 79.1 3.4 4.1 1.1 3.0
2009 95.3 93.9 90.2 78.3 3.7 4.2 1.2 3.0
2010 95.5 94.1 90.5 78.9 3.6 4.4 1.3 3.1
1979 to -4.2 -4.7 -6.7 -13.3 2.0 1.8 0.5 1.4
2010
Source: Author’s analysis of Center for Economic Policy Research extract of March Current Population Survey (2013).
Notes: “Other private” includes directly purchased insurance; “other public” includes Medicare, Veterans Administration, and other public
sources. Raw CPS data are adjusted for survey changes using the procedure described in Rho and Schmitt (2010b). The adjustment procedure
yields a coverage rate above 100.0 percent in 1982.
12/10/13 8:34 AM
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298 What Works for Workers?
Notes
1. For a brief introduction to the origins and development of the employer-
provided health insurance system in the United States, see Blumenthal (2006).
2. See, for example, U.S. Census Bureau (2011, 27, table 8). The census, instead,
devotes extensive analysis to health insurance coverage by age (particularly
for the population zero to seventeen and eighteen to sixty-four) and other
demographic characteristics.
3. See U.S. Census Bureau, “Health Insurance Historical Tables—HIB Series,”
available at: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/hlthins/data/historical/HIB_
tables.html (accessed May 2013).
4. The State of Working America has been published biennially for two decades.
The most recent data are available at: http://www.stateofworkingamerica.
org/ (accessed May 2013).
5. Paul Fronstin (2000, 2009) tracks the health insurance coverage of workers and
examines workers’ coverage through all possible sources, not just employer-
provided insurance. Lisa Clemans-Cope and Bowen Garrett (2006) analyze
coverage rates for adults, workers, and children through employers and other
sources. This chapter differs from this earlier research in two key ways. First, I
divide workers into wage quintiles and focus on low-wage workers; Fronstin
and Clemans-Cope and Garrett analyze all workers as a group. Second, I pro-
duce consistent estimates from 1979 through 2010; Fronstin (2000) covers the
period 1987 through 1998, and the period 1994 through 2008 (Fronstin 2009);
and Clemans-Cope and Garrett cover 2001 through 2005.
6. See Rho and Schmitt (2010b) for a review of changes in the CPS methodology
related to health insurance coverage.
7. I use the same approach (Schmitt 2008). Using unadjusted CPS data, Hye
Jin Rho and I (Rho and Schmitt 2010b) find a 7.5-percentage-point decline
between 1979 and 2008 in overall coverage rates for workers age eighteen to
sixty-four (see our table 10A.2); after adjusting for survey changes, we esti-
mate that the decline was 10.2 percentage points—about 36 percent higher
than the unadjusted estimate.
8. U.S. House of Representatives, Office of the Legislative Counsel, “Compilation
of Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act,” as amended through May 1,
2010, 111th Cong., 2nd session, p. 113, available at: http://housedocs.house.
gov/energycommerce/ppacacon.pdf (accessed May 2013). In practice, the
ACA allows states to disregard up to 5 percent of family income, potentially
raising the effective threshold to 138 percent of the poverty line (Kaiser Family
Foundation 2012a).
9. Hourly wages are calculated in the standard way by dividing each worker’s
-1 annual earnings from work by the product of the worker’s total number of
0 weeks worked in the year and his or her usual hours per week. The upper
+1
limit for hourly wages received by workers in the bottom wage quintile in
2010 was $10.10; the upper limit for the second wage quintile in the same year
was $14.96; and workers in the top quintile made at least $30.77 per hour (all
in 2010 dollars).
10. A worker is covered if the employer offers a plan and the employee partici-
pates in that plan. Low-income workers are both less likely to be in a job that
offers health insurance and less likely to accept coverage when it is available
(Clemans-Cope et al. 2007, 1).
11. For details on coverage for workers in the fourth quintile, see table 10A.4.
Coverage through a spouse’s or other family member’s employer was basi-
cally unchanged for workers in the middle quintile (see table 10A.3).
12. On the long-standing rise in health care costs, see, for example, Congressional
Budget Office (1991), Goodell and Ginsburg (2008), and the Center for Eco-
nomic and Policy Research’s “Health Care Budget Deficit Calculator,” available
at: http://www.cepr.net/calculators/hc/hc-calculator.html (accessed May 2013).
13. For a longer discussion of these structural shifts, see, among others, Baker
(2007), Bivens (2011), Mishel, Bernstein, and Shierholz (2009), and Schmitt
(2009). For a discussion of the importance of full employment, see Bernstein
and Baker (2003).
14. The Kaiser Family Foundation (2011) provides an excellent summary of the
main provisions of the legislation.
15. As the Kaiser Family Foundation (2011, 1) notes: “Exemptions will be granted
for financial hardship, religious objections, American Indians, those without
coverage for less than three months, undocumented immigrants, incarcerated
individuals, those for whom the lowest cost plan option exceeds 8% of an indi-
vidual’s income, and those with incomes below the tax filing threshold (in 2009
the threshold for taxpayers under age 65 was $9,350 for singles and $18,700 for
couples).” See also Blue Cross/Blue Shield of Rhode Island, “Federal Healthcare
Reform,” available at: https://www.bcbsri.com/BCBSRIWeb/pdf/Individual_
Mandate_Fact_Sheet.pdf, p. 2 (accessed May 2013); and U.S. House of Repre-
sentatives, Office of the Legislative Counsel, “Compilation of Patient Protection
and Affordable Care Act.”
16. The tax penalty will apply (but differently) in both the case where the
employer does not provide coverage and the case where the employer pro-
vides coverage but the employee does not accept it.
17. See, for example, “Justices to Hear Health Care Case as Race Heats Up,” New
York Times, November 15, 2011.
18. For a summary of state-level actions to challenge the ACA, see Cauci (2013).
19. As passed, the ACA made all legal residents under the age of sixty-five eligible
for Medicaid if their family income is less than 133 percent of the federal pov-
erty line. The Supreme Court’s June 2012 ruling on the constitutionality of the -1
ACA, however, allowed states to opt out of this requirement. States may decline 0
+1
to expand Medicaid coverage, but in doing so they stand to lose some federal
support for their Medicaid program. In the discussion of future projections,
I assume that states will (eventually) agree to the proposed ACA Medicaid
expansion, on the assumption that cash-scrapped states will not long leave free
money on the table (federal funds cover up to 90 percent of states’ added costs).
This assumption is consistent with state behavior after the initial creation of
Medicaid and Medicare in 1965. For a discussion of the Supreme Court’s deci-
sion and the implications for implementation of the ACA’s proposed Medicaid
expansion, see Kaiser Family Foundation (2012a, 2012b).
20. The CBO cites studies by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services
(Foster 2010), the Urban Institute (Buettgens, Garret, and Holahan 2010), the
Lewin Group (2010), and RAND (Eibner, Hussey, and Girosi 2010).
21. The CBO estimates that by 2019 the ACA will have reduced offers of
employer-provided health insurance about 4 percent relative to what the fig-
ure would have been in the absence of the legislation.
22. See, for example, Holtz-Eakin and Smith (2010) and Pizer, Frakt, and Iezzoni
(2011). A more recent CBO analysis has also suggested that a higher number of
workers will lose employer-provided health insurance; see also Congressional
Budget Office, staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation, “CBO’s February 2013
Estimate of the Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Health Insurance Cover-
age,” available at: http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/
43900_ACAInsuranceCoverageEffects.pdf (accessed May 2013).
23. In fact, non-elderly workers in 2010 had a slightly lower noncoverage rate
(19.5 percent) than nonworking adults (21.8 percent). If we were to adjust for
this difference, the results for workers under the ACA would be somewhat bet-
ter than appears under the assumption of a uniform rate for non-elderly adults.
24. Imagine that there are exactly one hundred workers divided into five groups
by wage level, each with twenty workers. If six of the total are without insur-
ance (rounding up from 5.8 percent), and if they are all in the bottom group,
then six of twenty members of that group, or 30 percent, are without coverage.
25. In 1974 Hawaii passed a law requiring employers to provide health insurance
coverage to all full-time employees. Legal challenges delayed implementa-
tion until the mid-1980s, but the law has been in place and enforced since
then. The lack of an individual mandate in Hawaii significantly reduces the
usefulness of the Hawaiian experience for projecting the likely effects of the
ACA. For a recent and comprehensive review of the Hawaiian experience,
see Buchmueller, DiNardo, and Valetta (2011).
26. For a brief overview of the Massachusetts reforms, see Dorn, Hill, and Hogan
(2009) and Gruber (2008).
27. The Massachusetts figure is from Long, Cook, and Stockley (2009, 11); the
-1 national figure is from Rho and Schmitt (2010b, table 4).
0
+1
28. Long, Phadera, and Lynch (2010) also note that those non-elderly adults who
remain uncovered are less likely to be employed than those with coverage—
though this does not rule out that low-wage workers are even less likely than
the non-employed to have coverage.
References
Baker, Dean. 2007. The United States Since 1980. Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press.
Bernstein, Jared, and Dean Baker. 2003. The Benefits of Full Employment: When Mar-
kets Work for People. Washington, D.C.: Economic Policy Institute.
Bivens, Josh. 2011. Failure by Design: The Story Behind America’s Broken Economy.
Washington, D.C.: Economic Policy Institute.
Blumenthal, David. 2006. “Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance in the United
States—Origins and Implications.” New England Journal of Medicine 355(1):
82–88.
Boushey, Heather. 2012. Remarks at the conference “What Works for Workers?
Public Policies and Innovative Strategies for Low-Wage Workers.” Washington,
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Buchmueller, Thomas C., John DiNardo, and Robert G. Valetta. 2011. “The Effect
of an Employer Health Insurance Mandate on Health Insurance Coverage and
the Demand for Labor: Evidence from Hawaii.” American Economic Journal: Eco-
nomic Policy 3(4): 25–51.
Buettgens, Matthew, Bowen Garrett, and John Holahan. 2010. “America Under the
Affordable Care Act,” Washington, D.C.: Urban Institute (December). Available
at: http://www.urban.org/uploadedpdf/412267-america-under-aca.pdf (accessed
May 2013).
Cauci, Richard. 2013. “State Legislation and Actions Challenging Certain Health
Reforms.” Denver: National Conference of State Legislatures (July). Available at:
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ppaca.aspx (accessed May 2013).
Center for Economic and Policy Research. 2013. Extract of the March Supplement of
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uniform-data-extracts/march-cps-supplement/ (accessed May 2013).
Clemans-Cope, Lisa, and Bowen Garrett. 2006. “Changes in Employer-Sponsored
Health Insurance Sponsorship, Eligibility, and Participation: 2001 to 2005.”
Menlo Park, Calif.: Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation (December 31). Avail-
able at: http://www.kff.org/uninsured/upload/7599.pdf (accessed May 2013).
Clemans-Cope, Lisa, Genevieve M. Kenney, Matthew Pantell, and Cynthia D. Perry.
2007. “Access to Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance Among Low-Income
Families: Who Has Access and Who Doesn’t?” Washington, D.C.: Urban Insti- -1
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Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, and Cameron Smith. 2010. “Labor Markets and Health
Care Reform: New Results.” Washington, D.C.: American Action Forum
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OHC_LabMktsHCR.pdf (accessed May 2013).
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Park, Calif.: Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation (April 25). Available at: http://
www.kff.org/healthreform/upload/8061.pdf (accessed May 2013).
———. 2012a. “A Guide to the Supreme Court’s Decision on the ACA’s Medicaid
Expansion.” Menlo Park, Calif.: Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation (June 29).
Available at: http://www.kff.org/healthreform/8332.cfm (accessed May 2013).
———. 2012b. “Implementing the ACA’s Medicaid-Related Health Reform Pro-
visions After the Supreme Court’s Decision.” Menlo Park, Calif.: Henry J.
Kaiser Family Foundation (August 1). Available at: http://www.kff.org/
healthreform/8347.cfm (accessed May 2013).
Lewin Group. 2010. “Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA): Long-
Term Costs for Governments, Employers, Families, and Providers.” Staff Work-
ing Paper 11. Falls Church, Va.: Lewin Group (June). Available at: http://www.
lewin.com/publications/publication/409/ (accessed May 2013).
Long, Sharon K., Allison Cook, and Karen Stockley. 2009. “Health Insurance
Coverage in Massachusetts: Estimates from the 2008 Massachusetts Health
Insurance Survey.” Boston: Massachusetts Division of Health Care Finance and
Policy (March). Available at: http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/411815_
Massachusetts_Insurance.pdf (accessed May 2013).
Long, Sharon, Lokendra Phadera, and Victoria Lynch. 2010. “Massachusetts
Health Reform in 2008: Who Are the Remaining Uninsured Adults?” Wash-
ington, D.C.: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (August). Available at: http://
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pdf (accessed May 2013).
Long, Sharon K., Alshadye Yemane, and Karen Stockley. 2010. “Disentangling the
Effects of Health Reform in Massachusetts: How Important Are the Special Pro-
visions for Young Adults?” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings
100(2): 297–302.
Mishel, Lawrence, Jared Bernstein, and Heidi Shierholz. 2009. The State of Working
America, 2008–2009. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.
Pande, Aakanksha H., Dennis Ross-Degnan, Alan M. Zaslavsky, and Joshua A.
Salomon. 2011. “Effects of Healthcare Reforms on Coverage, Access, and Dis-
parities: Quasi-Experimental Analysis of Evidence from Massachusetts.” Amer-
ican Journal of Preventive Medicine 41(1): 1–8.
Pizer, Steven D., Austin B. Frakt, and Lisa I. Iezzoni. 2011. “The Effect of Health
Reform on Public and Private Insurance in the Long Run.” Unpublished paper. -1
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+1
As family and work patterns have shifted over recent decades, the demand
for time off from work to address family needs has grown rapidly.1 “Work-
family balance” has become an urgent but elusive priority for millions of
Americans, driven by high labor force participation rates among mothers as
well as the caregiving needs of an aging population. Women—and increas-
ingly men as well—often find themselves caught between the competing
pressures of paid work and family responsibilities, especially when they
become parents or when serious illness strikes a family member. Affluent
families can often fill the gap with paid caregiving services, but their low-
income counterparts can rarely afford to do so.
The United States is notoriously lacking in public policies that support
workers who need time off to attend to family needs. Across the indus-
trialized world, long-standing government-sponsored programs provide
mothers—and, in many countries, fathers as well—with wage replace-
ment and job security for extended periods immediately before and after
the birth of a new child. Paid sick leave and vacation policies are universal
in most industrialized nations, and some governments make provision for
elder care as well (see Gornick and Meyers 2003).
By contrast, the only major federal legislation to address these issues
in the United States was the 1993 Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA),
which guarantees up to twelve weeks of job-protected leave, with continu-
ing fringe benefits, for both men and women who need time off from work
to attend to their own medical conditions or for family care. However, -1
FMLA’s coverage is limited to only about half of the nation’s workers, and 0
+1
305
to less than one-fifth of all new mothers (Ruhm 1997; Waldfogel 2001).2 And
because the leaves that FMLA provides are unpaid, even those workers
who are covered often cannot afford to take advantage of it.
In the absence of government provision for wage replacement during
family leave, U.S. workers typically rely on a patchwork of employer-
provided benefits to make ends meet, such as paid sick leave, vacation,
disability insurance, and/or parental and family leave. However, such
employer-provided benefits are by no means universally available. Man-
agers and professionals, as well as public-sector workers and others cov-
ered by collective bargaining agreements, often have access to benefits
that provide some form of wage replacement during a family leave. But
vast sectors of the U.S. workforce have little or no access to paid sick days
or paid vacation, and paid parental or family leave is even rarer. The situ-
ation is particularly acute for low-wage workers as well as for the growing
number of “precarious workers”—independent contractors, freelancers,
and others who lack any stable connection to an employer.
Against this background, California’s passage of the nation’s first com-
prehensive paid family leave (PFL) program on September 23, 2002, was a
historic breakthrough. Only two other states (New Jersey in 2009 and Rhode
Island in 2013) have established such programs.3 Both programs were
enacted into law as a result of sustained campaigns led by broad coalitions of
paid leave advocates, including women’s organizations, advocates for chil-
dren, senior citizens’ groups, medical practitioners, and critically, organized
labor, which supplied much of the necessary lobbying expertise and political
clout. Although the business lobby opposed these programs (in both states)
and succeeded in scaling them back to some extent, the advocates of paid
leave prevailed, in part owing to the broad public support for the issue.
California’s PFL benefits became available on July 1, 2004. Unlike the
FMLA, California’s PFL program covers the entire private sector, regard-
less of employer size. Self-employed workers are not automatically covered,
but can opt into the program; unionized public-sector workers can also opt
in through the collective bargaining process. Workers need not have been
with their current employer for any specific period of time to be eligible
for PFL; they need only to have earned $300 or more in a job covered by
state disability insurance (SDI) during any quarter in the “base period,”
which is five to seventeen months before they file a PFL claim. With this
very minimal earnings requirement, most part-time workers are covered
by the program. In short, with its near-universal coverage, the California
PFL program presented a pathbreaking opportunity to address the issue of
inequality in access to paid leave.
-1 The program offers partial wage replacement for covered workers who
0 go on leave to bond with a new biological, adopted, or foster child; this
+1 benefit is available to fathers as well as mothers during the first year after
a child is born or placed with the family. The program also offers wage
replacement during leaves to care for certain seriously ill family mem-
bers (a parent, child, spouse, or registered domestic partner). For both
bonding and caring leaves, covered workers can receive up to six weeks
of wage replacement at 55 percent of their usual weekly earnings, up to a
maximum benefit of $987 per week in 2011. (The maximum is indexed in
relation to the state’s average weekly wage.) The six weeks of leave can be
continuous or intermittent.
The PFL program is funded by an employee-paid payroll tax, with ben-
efit levels indexed to inflation. It builds on California’s long-standing state
disability insurance system, which has provided income support for medi-
cal and pregnancy-related leaves for many years. PFL is available to biolog-
ical mothers for six weeks in addition to the SDI benefits they may receive
during pregnancy leave.4 Unlike SDI payments, however, PFL benefits
have been deemed taxable income by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service.
The PFL program is structured as an insurance benefit, like SDI. There
are no direct costs to employers: the wage replacement benefit is funded
entirely by an employee payroll tax. (Currently a 1.0 percent tax on the
first $95,585 in earnings finances both SDI and PFL.) All California private-
sector wage and salary workers, except for the self-employed (unless they
opt in), pay this modest tax. Workers can claim PFL benefits after a one-
week waiting period by submitting appropriate documentation, including
certification from a health care provider, to the state’s Employment Devel-
opment Department. Employers may require workers to take up to two
weeks of earned (unused) vacation before collecting PFL benefits; in such
cases, this vacation period runs concurrently with the one-week waiting
period required under the PFL program.
The PFL program does not provide job protection, although in many
cases leave-takers have such protection under the FMLA or the California
Family Rights Act (CFRA), a state law that took effect in 1992, a year before
the federal FMLA became law, but which has broadly similar provisions.
For those who are covered by these laws, the PFL leave and the FMLA/
CFRA leave must be taken concurrently.
In operation for nearly eight years now, the California program has a
track record of sufficient length to permit a serious evaluation of how well
it is working and the extent to which its potential to improve the access of
low-wage workers to paid leave has been realized. How well has the pro-
gram served the growing numbers of low-wage workers, many of them
female, who have limited access to employer-sponsored fringe benefits
providing paid time off? How widespread are awareness and usage of
the program? What has been the experience of workers who have used -1
the program, and how has it affected their families? These are among the 0
questions we address in this chapter. +1
by far the most common reason reported—by 42.7 percent—was that they
“couldn’t afford to take an unpaid leave.” For non-college-educated respon-
dents, this figure rose to 53.8 percent, compared to 36.6 percent for those
with at least some college education. Similarly, for those whose household
incomes were below $40,000, 50.6 percent reported that they did not take a
needed leave because they could not afford to do so, compared to 38.9 per-
cent of those with household incomes between $40,000 and $74,999 and
32.6 percent of those with household incomes of $75,000 or more.9
California’s PFL program, with its nearly universal scope, was designed
in part to address these unmet needs. The state’s professionals, managers,
and others whose employers already provide them with paid time off can
now draw on PFL as well as the benefits they had before. For this group,
indeed, access to wage replacement historically has been as good as or bet-
ter than what the new state program offers. By contrast, low-wage workers
who previously had limited or no access to wage replacement during
leaves stood to gain far more from the PFL program, which promised to
narrow or even close the gap in access to paid leave between the “haves”
and “have-nots.”
As we show later, those low-wage workers who take advantage of PFL do
benefit greatly from the new program, both economically and in terms of its
impact on their health and well-being, as well as that of their family mem-
bers. The program remains largely ineffective, however, in reducing inequal-
ity. One reason for this is that many Californians remain unaware of the
program’s existence. Although Californians, like most Americans, strongly
support the concept of paid family leave (see Milkman and Appelbaum
2004), public awareness in California of the PFL program remains limited
nearly eight years after it began operations. Moreover, those Californians
who need the program most—low-wage workers and other disadvantaged
groups—are the least likely to be aware of it.
Another factor limiting the effectiveness of PFL as a social leveler is that
it often operates as a subsidy to those employers that have historically pro-
vided benefits of their own for workers who go on family leaves. Most of
those employers now coordinate their benefits with the state PFL program,
which gives them an incentive to encourage their employees to access the
state program. In contrast, low-wage workers with no employer-provided
benefits receive no such encouragement. As a result, the preexisting inequal-
ity in access to wage replacement is reproduced in a new form rather than
eliminated.
these surveys was fielded in late 2003, a year after the PFL legislation
was passed (but prior to the program’s implementation). At that time, we
found that only 22.0 percent of California adult respondents were aware
of PFL (for details see Milkman and Appelbaum 2004). Awareness rose
somewhat after benefits became available: our mid-2005 follow-up survey
of California adults found that 29.5 percent of respondents were aware of
the program a year after its initial implementation, and about the same
proportion (28.1 percent) were aware of it in mid-2007, when we con-
ducted another awareness survey. In all three of these surveys, we found
that low-income respondents, those with less education, young workers,
Latinos, and immigrants had substantially lower levels of awareness of
PFL than the state’s adult population as a whole.
In 2011, this time in association with the California Field Poll, we once
again assessed Californians’ awareness of the state’s PFL program. The Field
Poll included 1,001 registered voters and was conducted September 1–12,
2011. Well under half (42.7 percent) of the Field Poll respondents had “seen,
read [about], or heard [of]” the PFL program. As in the previous surveys,
awareness varied by ethnicity, gender, and age, as figure 11.1 shows, and
once again awareness of PFL was substantially lower among economically
disadvantaged groups such as those with lower household incomes, those
with limited education, and renters.
The Field Poll methodology differed somewhat from that of our ear-
lier surveys, but a systematic comparison to the results of our initial 2003
survey shows that awareness has increased by about 50 percent over the
past eight years, as shown in table 11.1. Here the comparison is limited to
respondents who voted in the last general election (the 2008 election for
the 2011 poll, and the 2000 election for the 2003 survey), so the data do not
correspond to those shown in figure 11.1.
Although fewer than half of these voters (44.9 percent) were aware of
PFL in 2011, this is a dramatic and significant increase over 2003, when the
figure was only 29.7 percent. Awareness grew even more among female
voters, from 25.9 to 51.2 percent. For men, however, there was very little
change. Awareness nearly doubled among Latinos and Asians who voted
in the 2008 election. (It is important to note, however, that immigrant non-
citizens are not part of this group.)
Awareness of FMLA is far higher than awareness of PFL, but the pat-
terns of inequality are similar. Overall, 64.2 percent of respondents in the
2012 U.S. Department of Labor survey were aware of FMLA’s existence,
and awareness was higher among women—71.1 percent, compared to
57.5 percent for men. As with PFL, the sharpest disparities in awareness
were by education and income: 82.9 percent of college graduates were -1
aware of FMLA, compared to only 44.2 percent of those with no college 0
+1
100
All Respondents
78.0 Respondents with High-Quality Jobs
80
Respondents with Low-Quality Jobs
63.4
Percentage
60 56.6
52.6
49.3 47.7
40
31.9
29.0 27.6 26.2 26.6 26.0 24.3 25.4
22.0
20
6.8 8.5
3.2
0
Employer Family or Internet Letter from Doctor Mass
Friends State or Clinic Media
Source
40
31.5 31.2
28.9
23.9
Percentage
20 17.7
0
Afraid Would Worried Afraid Thought
Unemployer Not Have It Would of Being About
Would Be Received Hurt Fired Applying,
Unhappy Enough Opportunities but Too Much
Money for Hassle to Fill
Advancement Out Forms
disability leaves. At the time PFL was won, advocates feared that includ-
ing a job protection provision in the program legislation would provoke
insurmountable opposition from employers. Some PFL-covered workers
do have job protection under other statutes, such as the federal FMLA. But
for the rest, taking a PFL leave could mean that they would not have a job
to return to, or that they would suffer other negative consequences. Fear
of these outcomes appears to be another important reason—apart from
lack of awareness of the PFL program—for the low take-up rate.
Finally, almost one-third of the PFL-aware respondents who were
asked why they did not use the program pointed to the limited wage
replacement it provides. Indeed, the PFL program provides only 55 per-
cent of workers’ usual pay, which for many workers—especially those in
low-wage jobs—may make it unaffordable.
+1
13502-12_CH11-4thPgs.indd 318
Table 11.3 Wage Replacement During Family Leave, by Paid Family Leave Use and Job Quality,
2009 to 2010
All Workers High-Quality Jobs Low-Quality Jobs
Proportion
of Usual Pay Used Paid Did Not Use Used Paid Did Not Use Used Paid Did Not Use
Received Family Paid Family Family Paid Family Family Paid Family
During Leave All Leave Leave Leave Leave Leave Leave
No pay 21.8% 0.0% 28.4%*** 0.0% 11.0%* 0.0% 38.2%***
Less than half 11.5 8.3 12.5 0.0 12.4** 16.2 12.5
About half 20.1 40.2 14.1*** 55.3 9.6*** 25.9 16.7
More than half 20.0 43.1 13.1*** 37.8 17.0 48.2 10.9***
Full pay 26.5 8.3 31.9*** 6.9 50.0*** 9.7 21.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Authors’ 2009–2010 screening survey (N = 204).
Note: Columns may not add to 100.0 percent due to rounding.
*p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001
12/10/13 8:35 AM
Low-Wage Workers and Paid Family Leave 319
Used Paid Family Leave Did Not Use Paid Family Leave
9.7
16.2 21.6 No Pay
Less Than Half
38.2
About Half
25.9 10.9
48.2 More Than Half
Full Pay
16.7
12.5
of those who used PFL while on leave received at least half their usual
weekly pay, a much higher proportion than among those who did not use
PFL (59.1 percent) (p < 0.001).12
All workers who used the program benefited from PFL with regard to
wage replacement, whether they were in high-quality or low-quality jobs.
Among respondents with high-quality jobs, all of those (100.0 percent) who
used PFL drew at least half their usual pay while on leave, compared to
only 76.6 percent of those in high-quality jobs who did not use the program,
a statistically significant difference (p < 0.001). However, many workers in
high-quality jobs can draw on accumulated paid sick days, paid vacation,
or other paid leave benefits for wage replacement when they go on leave.
Indeed, in our sample, half (exactly 50.0 percent) of those in high-quality
jobs who did not use PFL nevertheless received full pay from such sources.
These employees, with access to generous employer-provided benefits,
may not need PFL. But for all other respondents employed in high-quality
jobs (that is, those who did not receive full pay), PFL sharply boosted the
level of wage replacement, as table 11.3 and figure 11.4 show.
Workers in low-quality jobs received even greater economic benefits
from PFL. Among respondents in this group who did not use PFL, 50.7 per-
cent received either no wage replacement at all or less than half their usual
pay. In sharp contrast, among those in low-quality jobs who used PFL,
only 16.2 percent received less than half their income, a statistically sig- -1
nificant difference (p < 0.001). All the other respondents in low-quality jobs 0
+1
who used PFL (83.8 percent) received at least half of their usual income
while on leave, compared with only 49.2 percent of those who did not use
PFL; this also is a statistically significant difference (p < 0.001). For those
low-wage workers who actually use it, then, the PFL program is a critically
important source of income support when they go on leave from work to
attend to their families’ needs.
Length of Leaves
Although PFL made a substantial difference in access to wage replace-
ment during leave, especially for those in low-quality jobs, its effects on
the length of family leaves were more complex. As table 11.4 shows, the
median length of baby bonding leaves taken by all new parents in our sam-
ple was nine and a half weeks. Mothers took significantly longer bonding
leaves than fathers, regardless of job quality, and in most subgroups these
gender differences were statistically significant. (Those in low-quality jobs
who used PFL were the only exceptions.) However, for leaves to care for
-1 an ill family member, there was no significant gender difference in median
0 leave length. Among mothers in low-quality jobs, the median length was
+1
100 96.8
82.8
79.3 79.4
80
72.7
Percentage
60
40
20
0
All Workers High-Quality High-Quality Low-Quality Low-Quality
Jobs, Used Jobs, Did Jobs, Used Jobs, Did
Paid Family Not Use Paid Family Not Use
Leave Paid Family Leave Paid Family
Leave Leave
the same whether or not they used PFL. Mothers in high-quality jobs took
longer bonding leaves, however, with a median length of eighteen weeks
for those who used PFL, compared to only twelve weeks for those who
did not take advantage of the program.
Most respondents (79.3 percent) reported being “very satisfied” or
“somewhat satisfied” with the length of their family leaves. Among
workers in high-quality jobs, many of whom had access to income from
employer benefits while on leave, satisfaction with the length of leave was
similar regardless of whether they used PFL or not; as figure 11.5 shows,
about four-fifths of these workers reported that they were very satisfied or
somewhat satisfied with the length of their leave.
For workers in low-quality jobs, however, the use of PFL made a strik-
ing difference in satisfaction with the length of leave. Among workers -1
in these jobs, nearly all (96.8 percent) of those who used PFL were very 0
+1
98.6
100
87.6 88.4 88.7
81.2
80
Percentage
60
40
20
0
All Workers High-Quality High-Quality Low-Quality Low-Quality
Jobs, Used Jobs, Did Jobs, Used Jobs, Did
Paid Family Not Use Paid Family Not Use
Leave Paid Family Leave Paid Family
Leave Leave
Those workers in low-quality jobs who used the PFL program, how-
ever, were slightly more likely to return to the same employer after a fam-
ily leave. Within this group, the retention rate was 88.7 percent for those
who used the PFL program compared with 81.2 percent for those who
did not. This difference is not statistically significant, but it suggests the
possibility that California’s PFL program provides an important benefit
for employers, especially smaller employers that hope to retain workers
who need to take a family leave but that are unable to afford high levels of
wage replacement for them.
+1
13502-12_CH11-4thPgs.indd 324
Table 11.5 Family Leave Effects on Caregiving Ability and Health of Care Recipients, by Job Quality and
Use of Paid Family Leave, 2009 to 2010
High-Quality Jobs Low-Quality Jobs
Did Not Did Not
Used Paid Use Paid Used Paid Use Paid
All Family Family Family Family
Effects of Leave Respondents Leave Leave Leave Leave
Said that leave had positive effect on ability to care 82.3% 100.0% 91.8%* 87.0% 72.2%*
for new child or ill family member (N = 164)
New mothers who initiated breastfeeding (N = 67) 91.3% 88.5% 89.7% 89.1% 94.0%
Median months of breastfeeding (N = 57) 6 11.5 4.5** 4.5 5
Said that leave had positive effect on ability to 62.5% 56.7% 67.4% 70.0% 58.3%
arrange child care (N = 92)
Said that leave had positive effect on ill family 86.5% 100.0% 100.0% 69.2% 79.9%
member’s health (N = 49)
Source: Authors’ 2009–2010 screening survey.
Note: For median months of breastfeeding, the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test was used.
*p < 0.05; **p < 0.01
12/10/13 8:35 AM
Low-Wage Workers and Paid Family Leave 325
Conclusion
In some respects, California’s PFL program provides a pathbreaking
and positive example, one that might be replicated by policymakers in
other states and nationally.14 At the same time, however, the California
case is a cautionary tale about the key obstacles such programs must
overcome. These obstacles are different from those so often highlighted
by the business organizations that routinely oppose efforts to create new
programs to address work-family needs. Indeed, as we have documented
elsewhere (Appelbaum and Milkman 2011), the alleged negative impacts
of such programs on business are largely nonexistent. But the California
PFL experience does expose other serious challenges that policymakers
must address if they wish to provide access to paid leave to workers who
have no other means of obtaining it.
On the one hand, our findings strongly suggest that public policy ini-
tiatives like PFL that support workers who need time off to care for their
families can make a real and positive difference—even programs like
California’s PFL, which by international standards offers minimal ben-
efits. As we have seen, PFL use is associated with better economic, social,
and health outcomes for both workers and their families. Wage replace-
ment levels were significantly higher for workers who used PFL than for
those who did not, especially for workers in low-quality jobs. Among that
group, the proportion receiving half or more of their usual weekly pay
rose to 83.8 percent for those who used PFL, compared to just 49.2 percent
for those who did not use the program. Moreover, workers in low-quality
jobs who used PFL were more likely than those who did not to return
to the same employer after a family leave, were more satisfied with the
length of their leave, were better able to care for newborns and ill family
members, and were better able to make child care arrangements.
As we have also shown, however, the problem of unequal access to
paid time off remains a serious challenge in this case. Not only is general
public awareness of the PFL program woefully limited, but those who
stand to benefit most from it are the least likely to be aware of it. Low-
wage workers, Latinos, blacks, and young workers—the very groups that
have limited access to other sources of wage replacement during family
leaves—have especially low levels of awareness of the program.
The main source of information about PFL—for those workers who are
aware of it—is employers. Whereas employers who provide some form of
paid leave themselves and are now coordinating the benefits they provide
with the state program stand to gain if employees use PFL, those who pro-
vide no company-paid benefits have little incentive to inform employees
of the state program. This employer behavior has combined with unequal -1
awareness to re-create a new form of the previous inequality in access to 0
wage replacement during leaves. +1
Among workers who were aware of PFL, some did not apply for the pro-
gram when they needed a family leave because the level of wage replace-
ment was too low. And many of them feared that taking PFL would lead to
negative consequences on the job, perhaps even causing them to be fired.
The lack of job protection in the PFL program is another key concern.
Thus, the promise of California’s new program to extend access to paid
leave to all the state’s workers, including those who previously lacked access
to wage replacement, has yet to be fulfilled, as awareness of the program
remains unacceptably low among the groups who need it most. Until aware-
ness of PFL spreads more widely, especially among low-wage workers and
other disadvantaged groups, and until the issues of job protection and more
extensive levels of wage replacement are addressed, the program will not
achieve its intended effect of reducing the long-standing disparity between
the workers, most of them well-paid managers and professionals, who
have access to paid leave through employer-provided benefits and the less-
privileged workers who lack such access.15 Instead, this pattern of inequality
has been reproduced in a new form. The challenge ahead is to ensure that
PFL benefits are universally accessible in practice as well as in theory.
Notes
1. The authors thank Laura Braslow and Sara Jane Glynn for assistance with the
data analysis in this chapter. The chapter also draws on material from chap-
ter 5 of Milkman and Appelbaum (2013), which offers a more comprehensive
analysis of California’s PFL program.
2. FMLA covers all public-sector workers and private-sector workers who work
for organizations with fifty or more employees on the payroll at or within
seventy-five miles of the worksite. In addition, to be eligible for FMLA leave,
one must have been with the same employer for at least twelve months and
have worked 1,250 hours or more in the year preceding the leave.
3. Washington State passed a paid family leave law in 2007, but to date no fund-
ing has been provided to implement it.
4. SDI benefits for pregnancy typically cover up to four weeks before delivery
and an additional six to eight weeks afterward, at the doctor’s discretion. For
biological mothers, the PFL benefit supplements the pregnancy disability
benefits previously available under SDI. Although it does not increase the
amount of job-protected leave available to women who have given birth, it
provides six additional weeks of partial wage replacement.
5. Fifty of the five hundred respondents lived in households whose only tele-
phone was a cellular one; on average, they were younger and had lower
-1 incomes than the rest of the sample. All results are weighted to adjust for the
0 number of telephones per household, which affects the probability of selec-
+1 tion in random digit dialing.
6. See, for example, Neil Fligstein and Ofer Sharone’s (2002, 91–92) analysis
of the California workforce in 2001–2002, which found two worlds of work:
one at the top, “with lots of pressures but many rewards . . . in income . . .
job satisfaction, paid benefits and more security on the job,” that comprised
34 percent of the workforce; and another where 66 percent of respondents
worked at jobs that were “more onerous . . . with fewer paid benefits and . . .
more insecurity.” By the time we conducted our 2009–2010 survey, almost
a decade later than Fligstein and Sharone’s and immediately following the
Great Recession, the proportion of desirable jobs was presumably lower.
7. These data are for paid family leave as such—in contrast to the Census Bureau
report (Laughlin 2011)—and do not include paid sick leave and vacation ben-
efits, which are often used as wage replacement during family leaves. The
National Compensation Survey found sharp disparities in access to paid sick
leave and paid vacation benefits between high earners and low earners as well.
8. All significance levels reported later in the chapter are based on Z-tests unless
otherwise noted.
9. These differences by education and household income are statistically signifi-
cant (p < 0.05). For this question in the 2012 survey, N = 410.
10. All these differences were statistically significant (p < 0.001). N = 2,824.
11. Eligible respondents are those employed in the private or nonprofit sectors
(since most public-sector workers are not eligible for the state PFL program).
Take-up rates did not vary much by race and ethnicity or between U.S.-born
and immigrant workers.
12. The figure is 91.7 percent rather than 100 percent because some respondents
took leaves longer than the six weeks for which they could receive wage
replacement through the state PFL program.
13. The other differences in satisfaction levels (shown in figure 11.2) are not sta-
tistically significant.
14. This is much easier in the few states (Hawaii, New York, Rhode Island, and
Puerto Rico) that already have temporary disability programs (as the New
Jersey and Rhode Island cases exemplify) than elsewhere, because the neces-
sary administrative machinery is already in place.
15. Specific recommendations for expanded outreach include requiring hospi-
tals, clinics, and pediatricians’ offices to inform new parents about PFL (see
Milkman and Appelbaum 2013, 113).
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-1
0
+1
EITC (Earned Income Tax Credit). See (EITC); Work Opportunity Tax
Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) Credit (WOTC)
elder care workers. See domestic enforcement of law, 117–24, 136–42,
workers 150
Elliott, Mark, 101n14 English for speakers of other lan-
Emergency Contingency Fund, 96 guages (ESOL), 171–72, 177
employees: definition of, 113–14; reten- enterprise zones, 234
tion of, 199, 266–67, 309, 322–23 EPI (Economic Policy Institute), 224,
employer-based labor organizations, 237, 273–74
60, 66–69 ERISA (Employment Retirement
employer-employee relationship, 108, Income Security Act), 224
113–15 ESOL (English for speakers of other
employer-provided benefits: health languages), 171–72, 177
insurance, 273–74, 276–77, 284, 288–97; European Union (EU): migrant worker
inequality of access to, 308–10 policy, 142–43; union density, 51
employers: definition of, 113–15; evaluations: job retention programs,
sanctions for hiring undocumented 267; of sectoral training programs,
workers, 138–42, 151 175–77
employment: boundaries, 115–17; E-Verify, 142, 152
definition of, 113–15; employer- executive agencies, transparency of, 123
employee relationship, 108, 113–15; ex-offenders, 94–95, 203
job quality, 97, 167–68, 170; job
retention, 199, 266–67, 309, 322–23; FAA (Federal Aviation Administra-
prospects for disadvantaged youth, tion), 231
90; work hours, 234–36. See also Facebook, 67–68
employment rates fair housing, 31–32, 37
employment and training programs, Fair Housing Act (1968), 32–33, 38
91–92 Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA):
employment discrimination, 95, 138–39 cable installers covered by, 121–22;
employment rates: disadvantaged employee definition, 114; hot cargo
youth, 83–85, 87–89; EITC effects, provision, 116; immigrant workers
200; minimum wage impact, 218; covered by, 6, 137; War on Poverty
WOTC effects, 200 expansion, 5; workers excluded
Employment Retirement Income Secu- from, 28
rity Act (ERISA), 224 Fair Minimum Wage Act (2013), 218,
employment subsidies, 186–214; future 237
prospects, 206–8; for job creation, Fairris, David, 221
207–8; labor market effects, 186, family, as safety net for low-wage
187; overview of current programs, workers, 250–52
188–99; program participation, Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA)
-1 201–6; work incentives, 199–201. (1993), 128n15, 305–6, 311–13
0 See also Earned Income Tax Credit Family Assistance Plan (FAP), 34, 35
+1
family budget calculator, 224 FLSA (Fair Labor Standards Act). See
family leave, 305–6. See also California Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA)
paid family leave (PFL) program FMLA (Family and Medical Leave Act)
family reunification, 136 (1993), 128n15, 305–6, 311–13
Fannie Mae (Federal National Mort- food preparation workers, 3, 4, 225
gage Association), 30, 38 food stamp program, 190, 203, 205
FAP (Family Assistance Plan), 34, 35 Ford Motor Company, 70n5, 111
Farm Labor Organizing Committee Foulkes, Fred, 126n4
(FLOC), 148–49 franchising, 112, 116, 117–18, 123–24.
farmworkers, 6, 136, 137–38, 148 See also fissured workplace
fast food industry, 129n17, 217 Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan
FCC (Federal Communications Com- Mortgage Corporation), 38
mission), 62 Freelancers Union, 57, 60, 66
Federal Aviation Administration freelance workers. See independent
(FAA), 231 contractors
Federal Communications Commission Freeman, Richard B., 50, 67
(FCC), 62 free trade, 7
Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corpo- Fresh Direct, 140
ration (Freddie Mac), 38 Fronstin, Paul, 298n5
Federal Housing Administration full employment, 26–27, 29, 41
(FHA), 32, 34
Federal National Mortgage Association Galbraith, John Kenneth, 27
(Fannie Mae), 30, 38 Gallup poll, 53–57
Fehr, Ernst, 126n4 Gangmasters and Licensing Authority,
FHA (Federal Housing Administra- 145
tion), 32, 34 GAO (Government Accountability
Field Poll, 311 Office), 137, 202
financialization, 21, 22, 38, 40–41 Garrett, Bowen, 298n5
Fine, Janice, 149 GED (General Educational Develop-
fissured workplace, 108–33; elements ment) degree, 92, 172
of, 110–12; employment relationship gender differences: California paid
in, 108; enforcement strategies using family leave awareness, 311, 312,
existing legislation, 117–24; growth 313; education outcomes, 85–87;
of, 108–9; new legislation, 112–17; employment outcomes for disadvan-
social consequences, 109, 125–26 taged youth, 84, 87–88; family leave,
Fligstein, Neil, 327n6 309; pay gap, 6; school enrollment
FLOC (Farm Labor Organizing Com- rates for disadvantaged youth, 84
mittee), 148–49 General Educational Development
Florida: unemployment insurance (GED) degree, 92, 172
earnings requirement, 260, 263; General Growth Properties (GGP),
unemployment insurance recipiency 231 -1
rate, 256–58, 257 General Motors, 70n5 0
+1
Los Angeles, Calif.: living wage ordi- Massachusetts: health care reform,
nance, 221, 223, 230, 235; workers’ 274–75, 285–86; unemployment
rights campaigns, 150 insurance earnings requirement, 260,
Louisiana: unemployment insurance 263, 264; unemployment insurance
earnings requirement, 260; unem- recipiency rate, 257
ployment insurance recipiency rate, mass incarceration. See incarceration
257 maternity leave, 309
Lower-Basch, Elizabeth, 208 Maynard-Moody, Steven, 254
Low-Income Housing Tax Credit McCartin, Joseph A., 1
(LIHTC), 37 McMurrer, Daniel, 259
low-wage work and workers: defi- MDRC, 267
nition of, 275; growth of, 2–6; by Medicaid, 227, 278–80, 283–84, 288–97
occupation, 2–3. See also specific index medical leave, 309–10
headings meet-and-confer agreements, 69
Luce, Stephanie, 1, 215, 221 men, unemployment insurance
Luff, Jennifer, 1 benefits, 248–49. See also gender
Lynch, Victoria, 285, 301n28 differences
Mexican Americans. See Hispanics
Madland, David, 57 Meyer, Bruce, 206, 210n11
Maguire, Sheila, 101n14 Meyerson, Harold, 63
Maine: Pine Trees Development Zones, Michigan: Retention and Advancement
234; unemployment insurance Demonstration Program, 174–75;
earnings requirement, 260, 263, 264; right-to-work law, 53; unemploy-
unemployment insurance recipiency ment insurance earnings require-
rate, 257 ment, 260, 263; unemployment
management, career ladder resistance, insurance recipiency rate, 257
178 Microsoft, 67
manufacturing: career ladder pro- middle class, 5, 31, 165–66
grams, 174–75, 176, 179; offshoring middle-skill level jobs, 90, 168
of, 2, 7 midterm elections (1994), 23
March Current Population Survey, migrant workers, in U.K., 142–45, 151–52
201, 203, 275–81 migration, in U.S., 259
Marculewicz, Stefan, 64, 73n33 Milkman, Ruth, 1, 305
marriage status, and California paid minimum wage, 5, 37, 97, 216–19,
family leave awareness, 312 236–38. See also living wage
Marriott, 198 Minnesota: unemployment insurance
Martinson, Karin, 267 earnings requirement, 260; unem-
Maryland: unemployment insurance ployment insurance recipiency rate,
earnings requirement, 260; unem- 257
ployment insurance recipiency rate, Mishel, Larry, 57
-1 257 Mississippi: public sector collec-
0 Marzulli, John, 154n17 tive bargaining limitations, 68;
+1
-1
0
+1