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Lista 4 - Fin 2

- The document appears to be an analysis of the financial projections of a proposed $2,680,000 investment called XC-750. It includes projections for additional sales, costs, expenses, taxes, and cash flows over a 10 year period. - Scenario analyses are presented, including worst case, base case, and best case projections, with NPV calculations under different assumptions. The goal appears to be determining the minimum annual sales needed to make the investment financially viable based on an NPV of at least 0.

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Moshe Picciotto
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27 views

Lista 4 - Fin 2

- The document appears to be an analysis of the financial projections of a proposed $2,680,000 investment called XC-750. It includes projections for additional sales, costs, expenses, taxes, and cash flows over a 10 year period. - Scenario analyses are presented, including worst case, base case, and best case projections, with NPV calculations under different assumptions. The goal appears to be determining the minimum annual sales needed to make the investment financially viable based on an NPV of at least 0.

Uploaded by

Moshe Picciotto
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 24

XC-750 Investment 2,680,000

Previous Study (doesnt count) 45,000


Additional Sales (year 1-10) 10,150,000
Decrease sales Year 0 - 5,010,000
COGS 1
Additional inventory (-year0 and +year 10) 1,120,000
Additional SG&A (1-10) 1,970,000
Receivables of new sales (over sales) 0
payables of new sales (over COGS) 0
Marginal corporate tax rate 0
Depreciation straigth line method 0

Sales - 5,010,000
COGS -
Gross Profit - 5,010,000
SGNA
R&D -
Depreciation
EBIT - 5,010,000
Income Tax (35%) 1,753,500
Unlevered net Income - 3,256,500

Sales - 5,010,000
COGS
Gross Profit - 5,010,000
SGNA
R&D
Depreciation
EBIT - 5,010,000
Income Tax (35%) 1,753,500
Unlevered net Income - 3,256,500
FCF
Depreciation
Capital Expenditures - 2,680,000
Increases in NWC - 1,120,000
FCF: - 7,056,500

NWC
Inventory 1,120,000
Recievables
Payables
NWC 1,120,000

WACC 0
NPV - 2,324,531

Worst Case
-

Sales - 5,010,000
COGS -
Gross Profit - 5,010,000
SGNA
R&D
Depreciation
EBIT - 5,010,000
Income Tax (35%) 1,753,500
Unlevered net Income - 3,256,500
FCF
Depreciation
Capital Expenditures - 2,680,000
Increases in NWC - 1,120,000
FCF: - 7,056,500

NWC
Inventory 1,120,000
Recievables
Payables
NWC 1,120,000

WACC 0
NPV - 4,315,511

Best Case
-

Sales - 5,010,000
COGS -
Gross Profit - 5,010,000
SGNA
R&D
Depreciation
EBIT - 5,010,000
Income Tax (35%) 1,753,500
Unlevered net Income - 3,256,500
FCF
Depreciation
Capital Expenditures - 2,680,000
Increases in NWC - 1,120,000
FCF: - 7,056,500

NWC
Inventory 1,120,000
Recievables
Payables
NWC 1,120,000

WACC 0
NPV - 333,551

Sales - 5,010,000
COGS
Gross Profit - 5,010,000
SGNA
R&D
Depreciation
EBIT - 5,010,000
Income Tax (35%) 1,753,500
Unlevered net Income - 3,256,500
FCF
Depreciation
Capital Expenditures - 3,930,000
Increases in NWC - 1,120,000
FCF: - 8,306,500

NWC
Inventory 1,120,000
Recievables
Payables
NWC 1,120,000

WACC 0
NPV - 2,342,580

Deveria ter ao menos um faturamento anual de R$11.677.577 anualmente, conforme osolução do Solver, considerando uma
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

10,150,000 10,150,000 10,150,000 10,150,000 10,150,000 10,150,000 10,150,000


7,206,500 7,206,500 7,206,500 7,206,500 7,206,500 7,206,500 7,206,500
2,943,500 2,943,500 2,943,500 2,943,500 2,943,500 2,943,500 2,943,500
- 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000

- 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000


705,500 705,500 705,500 705,500 705,500 705,500 705,500
- 246,925 - 246,925 - 246,925 - 246,925 - 246,925 - 246,925 - 246,925
458,575 458,575 458,575 458,575 458,575 458,575 458,575

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

10,150,000 10,150,000 10,150,000 10,150,000 10,150,000 10,150,000 10,150,000


7,206,500 7,206,500 7,206,500 7,206,500 7,206,500 7,206,500 7,206,500
2,943,500 2,943,500 2,943,500 2,943,500 2,943,500 2,943,500 2,943,500
- 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000

- 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000


705,500 705,500 705,500 705,500 705,500 705,500 705,500
- 246,925 - 246,925 - 246,925 - 246,925 - 246,925 - 246,925 - 246,925
458,575 458,575 458,575 458,575 458,575 458,575 458,575

268,000 268,000 268,000 268,000 268,000 268,000 268,000

- 801,850
- 75,275 726,575 726,575 726,575 726,575 726,575 726,575

1,522,500 1,522,500 1,522,500 1,522,500 1,522,500 1,522,500 1,522,500


- 720,650 - 720,650 - 720,650 - 720,650 - 720,650 - 720,650 - 720,650
801,850

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

8,200,000 8,200,000 8,200,000 8,200,000 8,200,000 8,200,000 8,200,000


5,822,000 5,822,000 5,822,000 5,822,000 5,822,000 5,822,000 5,822,000
2,378,000 2,378,000 2,378,000 2,378,000 2,378,000 2,378,000 2,378,000
- 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000

- 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000


140,000 140,000 140,000 140,000 140,000 140,000 140,000
- 49,000 - 49,000 - 49,000 - 49,000 - 49,000 - 49,000 - 49,000
91,000 91,000 91,000 91,000 91,000 91,000 91,000

268,000 268,000 268,000 268,000 268,000 268,000 268,000

- 647,800
- 288,800 359,000 359,000 359,000 359,000 359,000 359,000

1,230,000 1,230,000 1,230,000 1,230,000 1,230,000 1,230,000 1,230,000


- 582,200 - 582,200 - 582,200 - 582,200 - 582,200 - 582,200 - 582,200
647,800

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

12,100,000 12,100,000 12,100,000 12,100,000 12,100,000 12,100,000 12,100,000


8,591,000 8,591,000 8,591,000 8,591,000 8,591,000 8,591,000 8,591,000
3,509,000 3,509,000 3,509,000 3,509,000 3,509,000 3,509,000 3,509,000
- 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000

- 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000


1,271,000 1,271,000 1,271,000 1,271,000 1,271,000 1,271,000 1,271,000
- 444,850 - 444,850 - 444,850 - 444,850 - 444,850 - 444,850 - 444,850
826,150 826,150 826,150 826,150 826,150 826,150 826,150

268,000 268,000 268,000 268,000 268,000 268,000 268,000

- 955,900
138,250 1,094,150 1,094,150 1,094,150 1,094,150 1,094,150 1,094,150

1,815,000 1,815,000 1,815,000 1,815,000 1,815,000 1,815,000 1,815,000


- 859,100 - 859,100 - 859,100 - 859,100 - 859,100 - 859,100 - 859,100
955,900

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

10,150,000 10,150,000 11,677,577 11,677,577 11,677,577 11,677,577 11,425,783


7,206,500 7,206,500 8,291,080 8,291,080 8,291,080 8,291,080 8,112,306
2,943,500 2,943,500 3,386,497 3,386,497 3,386,497 3,386,497 3,313,477
- 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000

- 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000


705,500 705,500 1,148,497 1,148,497 1,148,497 1,148,497 1,075,477
- 246,925 - 246,925 - 401,974 - 401,974 - 401,974 - 401,974 - 376,417
458,575 458,575 746,523 746,523 746,523 746,523 699,060

268,000 268,000 268,000 268,000 268,000 268,000 268,000

- 801,850
- 75,275 726,575 1,014,523 1,014,523 1,014,523 1,014,523 967,060

1,522,500 1,522,500 1,751,637 1,751,637 1,751,637 1,751,637 1,713,867


- 720,650 - 720,650 - 829,108 - 829,108 - 829,108 - 829,108 - 811,231
801,850

o do Solver, considerando uma receita de vendas estável entre o ano 3 e 10.


8 9 10

10,150,000 10,150,000 10,150,000


7,206,500 7,206,500 7,206,500
2,943,500 2,943,500 2,943,500
- 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000

- 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000


705,500 705,500 705,500
- 246,925 - 246,925 - 246,925
458,575 458,575 458,575

8 9 10

10,150,000 10,150,000 10,150,000


7,206,500 7,206,500 7,206,500
2,943,500 2,943,500 2,943,500
- 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000

- 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000


705,500 705,500 705,500
- 246,925 - 246,925 - 246,925
458,575 458,575 458,575 a) Os ganhos incrementais estão destacados na linha Unlevered Inc

268,000 268,000 268,000

1,921,850
726,575 726,575 2,648,425 b) O FCF está definido na linha 43.

- 1,120,000
1,522,500 1,522,500 1,522,500
- 720,650 - 720,650 - 720,650
- 1,921,850

8 9 10

8,200,000 8,200,000 8,200,000


5,822,000 5,822,000 5,822,000
2,378,000 2,378,000 2,378,000
- 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000

- 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000


140,000 140,000 140,000
- 49,000 - 49,000 - 49,000
91,000 91,000 91,000

268,000 268,000 268,000

1,767,800
359,000 359,000 2,126,800

- 1,120,000
1,230,000 1,230,000 1,230,000
- 582,200 - 582,200 - 582,200
- 1,767,800

8 9 10

12,100,000 12,100,000 12,100,000


8,591,000 8,591,000 8,591,000
3,509,000 3,509,000 3,509,000
- 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000

- 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000


1,271,000 1,271,000 1,271,000
- 444,850 - 444,850 - 444,850
826,150 826,150 826,150

268,000 268,000 268,000

2,075,900
1,094,150 1,094,150 3,170,050

- 1,120,000
1,815,000 1,815,000 1,815,000
- 859,100 - 859,100 - 859,100
- 2,075,900

8 9 10

11,425,783 11,425,783 11,425,783


8,112,306 8,112,306 8,112,306
3,313,477 3,313,477 3,313,477
- 1,970,000 - 1,970,000 - 1,970,000

- 268,000 - 268,000 - 268,000


1,075,477 1,075,477 1,075,477
- 376,417 - 376,417 - 376,417
699,060 699,060 699,060

268,000 268,000 268,000

2,022,637
967,060 967,060 2,989,697

- 1,120,000
1,713,867 1,713,867 1,713,867
- 811,231 - 811,231 - 811,231
- 2,022,637
destacados na linha Unlevered Income
Informations and variables
Capital Expenditure Year 0 10% of PPE (Property, Plant, Equipament)
Capital Expenditure Year 1 10% of year 0
Capital expediture Year 2 0.105
Capital expenditure Year 3 0.10605
Capital expenditure Year 4 0.1071105
Capital expenditure Year 5 0.108181605

Product life (Years) 5


Revenue Year 1 3%
Revenue Year 2 3.450% 15%
Revenue Year 3 3.795% 10%
Revenue Year 4 3.985% 5%
Revenue Year 5 4.184% 5%

Operating costs and NWC requirements similar to the company


Depreciation Straightline

IBM's Tax Rate 21%

2022
Sales 30206
PPE 18695
Income from continuing operatio 1156
Depreciation 2407
EBITDA 3563
Profitabillity 11.80%
Depreciation 20.00%

Capital Expenditure Year 0 1,869.50


Capital Expenditure Year 1 187
Capital expediture Year 2 196
Capital expenditure Year 3 198
Capital expenditure Year 4 200
Capital expenditure Year 5 202
Total Asset Value 2,853

NWC
Inventory 71 0.00235052638548633
Payables 213 0.00705157915645898
Receivables 539 0.0178441369264385

Solution
0 1 2
Sales 906 1,042
EBITDA 107 123
Depreciation - 571 - 571
EBIT - 464 - 448
Tax Income - 97 - 94
Unlevered Net Income - 366 - 354
Depreciation 571 571
Capital Expenditure - 1,870 - 187 - 196
NWC - 397 - -
FCF - 2,267 17 21

WACC 12%
NPV -R$ 1,740.00
IRR -27%

Sensitivity analysis
Average NPV Best case
Sales 3% -R$ 1,740 R$ 0
WACC 12% -R$ 1,740 R$ 0
Constant revenue Growth 15%,10%,5%,1%,1% -R$ 1,740 R$ 0

2% revenue
0 1 2
Sales 604 695
EBITDA 71 82
Depreciation -571 -571
EBIT -499 -489
Tax Income -105 -103
Unlevered Net Income -395 -386
Depreciation 571 571
Capital Expenditure -1869.5 -187 -196
NWC -397 0 0
FCF - 2,266.50 -11 -12

WACC 12%
NPV -R$ 1,849.21
IRR -30%

10% WACC

0 1 2
Sales 906 1,042
EBITDA 107 123
Depreciation - 571 - 571
EBIT - 464 - 448
Tax Income - 97 - 94
Unlevered Net Income - 366 - 354
Depreciation 571 571
Capital Expenditure - 1,870 - 187 - 196
NWC - 397 - -
FCF - 2,267 17 21

WACC 10%
NPV -R$ 1,747.41
IRR -27%

0% Revenue growth
- 1 2
Sales 906 906
EBITDA 107 107
Depreciation - 571 - 571
EBIT - 464 - 464
Tax Income - 97 - 97
Unlevered Net Income - 366 - 366
Depreciation 571 571
Capital Expenditure - 1,870 - 187 - 196
NWC - 397 - -
FCF - 2,267 17 8

WACC 12%
NPV -R$ 1,795.85
IRR -29%
3 4 5
1,146 1,204 1,264 Inventory
135 142 149 Payables
- 571 - 571 - 571 Receivables
- 435 - 429 - 422 NWC:
- 91 - 90 - 89
- 344 - 339 - 333
571 571 571
- 198 - 200 - 202
- - 397
28 32 432

Best Case NPV Worst case Worst Case NPV


-R$ 1,631 R$ 0 -R$ 1,849
-R$ 1,725 R$ 0 -R$ 1,747
-R$ 1,743 R$ 0 -R$ 1,796

4% revenue
3 4 5 0 1
764 802 843 Sales 1208
90 95 99 EBITDA 143
-571 -571 -571 Depreciation -571
-481 -476 -471 EBIT -428
-101 -100 -99 Tax Income -90
-380 -376 -372 Unlevered Net Income -338
571 571 571 Depreciation 571
-198 -200 -202 Capital Ex -1869.5 -187
0 0 397 NWC -397 0
-7 -6 393 FCF -2266.5 45

WACC 12%
NPV ###
IRR -23%

15% WACC

3 4 5 0
1,146 1,204 1,264 Sales
135 142 149 EBITDA
- 571 - 571 - 571 Depreciation
- 435 - 429 - 422 EBIT
- 91 - 90 - 89 Tax Income
- 344 - 339 - 333 Unlevered Net Income
571 571 571 Depreciation
- 198 - 200 - 202 Capital Expe- 1,870
- - 397 NWC - 397
28 32 432 FCF - 2,267

WACC 15%
NPV -R$ 1,725.21
IRR -27%

10% Revenue growth


3 4 5 - 1
906 906 906 Sales 906
107 107 107 EBITDA - 107
- 571 - 571 - 571 Depreciation - 571
- 464 - 464 - 464 EBIT - 464
- 97 - 97 - 97 Tax Income - 97
- 366 - 366 - 366 Unlevered Net Income- 366
571 571 571 Depreciation 571
- 198 - 200 - 202 Capital Ex - 1,870 - 187
- - 397 NWC - 397 -
6 4 399 FCF - 2,267 17

WACC 12%
NPV ###
IRR -26%
0 1 2 3 4 5
71
-213
539
397 -397

2 3 4 5
1389 1528 1605 1685
164 180 189 199
-571 -571 -571 -571
-407 -390 -381 -372
-85 -82 -80 -78
-321 -308 -301 -294
571 571 571 571
-196 -198 -200 -202
0 0 0 397
53 64 69 472

1 2 3 4 5
906 1,042 1,146 1,204 1,264
107 123 135 142 149
- 571 - 571 - 571 - 571 - 571
- 464 - 448 - 435 - 429 - 422
- 97 - 94 - 91 - 90 - 89
- 366 - 354 - 344 - 339 - 333
571 571 571 571 571
- 187 - 196 - 198 - 200 - 202
- - - - 397
17 21 28 32 432

2 3 4 5
997 1,096 1,206 1,327
118 129 142 156
- 571 - 571 - 571 - 571
- 453 - 441 - 428 - 414
- 95 - 93 - 90 - 87
- 358 - 349 - 338 - 327
571 571 571 571
- 196 - 198 - 200 - 202
- - - 397
16 24 32 438
EX 1
0 1 2 3 4 5
Cost Saving 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00
DEP - 100,000.00 - 100,000.00 - 100,000.00 - 100,000.00 - 100,000.00
NOPAT 60,000.00 60,000.00 60,000.00 60,000.00 60,000.00
+ DEP 160,000.00 160,000.00 160,000.00 160,000.00 160,000.00
Capex - 500,000.00
Machine Sold 75,000.00
Tax - 30,000.00

FFCF - 500,000.00 160,000.00 160,000.00 160,000.00 160,000.00 205,000.00


Discount Rate 8%
NPV 169,459.85
IRR 19.70%
0- 500,000.00 - 500,000.00
1 160,000.00 - 340,000.00
2 160,000.00 - 180,000.00
3 160,000.00 - 20,000.00
4 160,000.00 140,000.00
PAYBACK 3.125

EX 2
1.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
FFCF -300000 8000 8000 8000 8000 8000 8000
WAAC 7%
NPV - 236,458.51

2.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
COST SAVING 163000 163000 163000 163000 163000 163000
DEP -40000 -40000 -40000 -40000 -40000 -40000
NOPAT 73800 73800 73800 73800 73800 73800
+ DEP 113800 113800 113800 113800 113800 113800
CAPEX -480000
MACHINE SELL 100000
TAX -40000
FFCF -420000 113800 113800 113800 113800 113800 113800
DISCOUNT RATE 7%
NPV 483,877.70
7 8 9 10 11 12
8000 8000 8000 8000 8000 8000

7 8 9 10 11 12
163000 163000 163000 163000 163000 163000
-40000 -40000 -40000 -40000 -40000 -40000
73800 73800 73800 73800 73800 73800
113800 113800 113800 113800 113800 113800

113800 113800 113800 113800 113800 113800

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