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1. Introduction
Land use change is driven by interaction in space and time between humans and
the environment that can be captured by computer simulation models (Veldkamp
and Verburg, 2004). In the last few decades, land use change models have played
an important role in understanding the causes, mechanisms and consequences of
land use dynamics. The models have provided an opportunity to explore and
evaluate land use policies, and have helped to visualize alternative futures. The
success of these land use models is directly related to the availability of high-
resolution satellite images, with better precision and accuracy, and to the
availability of increased computational power. Among the types of model that have
been used to study land use change, the impact of cellular automata (CA) models
has arguably been the greatest (Batty, 1997; Batty et al., 1997; Couclelis, 1997).
These ‘flexible’ CAs divide the landscape into cells, and their behavior is
determined by transition rules that capture the uncertainties of the real world
system and simulate the pattern and process of urban growth (Batty, 2005). These
mechanistic models have become successful largely because of their simplicity
(Torrens and Sullivan, 2001). SLEUTH is one such CA model that has been
successfully applied worldwide over the last 15 years to simulate land use change.
The objective of this paper is to review the current status of the SLEUTH land
use change model. Clarke et al. (2007) and Clarke (2008a) provided detailed
reviews of the model and its application from its initial days until about 2005. This
paper brings the debates, modifications and applications of the model up to date,
and provides a brief discussion of past SLEUTH applications. We next highlight
the technical modifications published after 2005 and provide a detailed review of
applications published until 2012. Structurally, first this paper presents a brief
history and description of the SLEUTH model, and then reviews the recent
successful technical modifications and applications.
of growth cycles make up the whole simulation process. Figure 1 shows the general
structure of the model.
(Dietzel and Clarke, 2008). However, it proved difficult to narrow down the
parameter set which will yield the optimum result. To identify that set, studies used
three different datasets (to represent the major spatial processes and patterns of
urban growth) that were calibrated exhaustively (i.e. with unit increments in the
parameters) and used visual interpretation of self-organizing maps to identify the
metrics necessary to derive the optimum result (Dietzel and Clarke 2007; Dietzel
and Clarke, 2008). Based on these results a single goodness of fit metric, known as
the OSM (Optimal SLEUTH Metric, the product of the ‘compare’, ‘population’,
‘edges’, ‘clusters’, ‘slope’, ‘X-mean’, and ‘Y-mean’ metrics) was derived that
provides the most robust results for SLEUTH calibration (Dietzel and Clarke,
2008). The source code for OSM calculation can be found on the project website
at: http://www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/projects/gig/Dnload/download.htm.
3.2. pSLEUTH
pSLEUTH is a parallel version of SLEUTH developed in 2010 (Guan and
Clarke, 2010). In this version of the model, the authors used an open source
general-purpose parallel raster processing programming library (pRPL) to
improve its computational performance, especially during the calibration process.
The advanced features of pRPL enhanced the capabilities of SLEUTH to work
efficiently with massive raster data in a shorter period of time. Further, it helped to
replace simplified assumptions during the calibration stage with a more exhaustive
calibration process, which can result in the production of different ‘best-fit’
parameter combinations than the simplified calibration process and thus produces
different simulation results (Guan and Clarke, 2010). In parallelizing the model,
both data parallelism and data–task hybrid parallelism (grouping the processors)
were used with both static and dynamic tasking as the load-balancing strategy. To
test the performance of pSLEUTH, it was applied to simulate urbanization of the
continental US for 1980 and 1990 at 1km resolution and with an image size of
4948 x 3108 pixels. The results showed a great reduction of computation time for
the calibration process with multiple processors; in effect it achieved a speedup of
24 using 32 processors (Guan and Clarke, 2010). The parallel version of SLEUTH
and details about pRPL can be found in:
http://www.geog.ucsb.edu/~guan/pRPL/index.htm.
3.3. SLEUTH-3r
Jantz et al., (2004; 2005) identified several limitations of SLEUTH, which
affected the simulation of the urban areas and the performance. The problem they
identified were: first, SLEUTH’s bias towards edge growth, which restricts the
suitable level of dispersed growth in fine resolution data; secondly, inappropriate
fit statistics; thirdly, the model’s inefficient memory use; and fourthly, the model’s
inability to identify areas where growth is more likely to occur (Jantz et al., 2010).
To address these issues Jantz et al. came up with a new version called SLEUTH-3r.
Chaudhuri & Clarke / The International Journal of Environmental Resources Research 1, 1 (2013) 93
The first three limitations were addressed by modification of the source code of the
original version and allowing interactivity in setting the model coefficients, and the
fourth limitation was addressed by dividing the region of interest according to
groups of minimum variability of the urban growth pattern by using cluster
analysis and simulating each of them independently (Jantz et al., 2010). SLEUTH-
3r was successfully tested for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed under multiple
scenarios. The modified model has been reported to be 5 times more
computationally efficient, reduces memory usage by 65%, and enhances the
model’s ability to use economic, cultural and policy information (Jantz et al.,
2010). The technical details and the SLEUTH-3r version of the model can be found
in http://egscbeowulf.er.usgs.gov/geninfo/downloads/
3.4. SLEUTH-GA
Genetic algorithms (GA) are heuristic methods that can simulate natural
evolution to generate an optimal result. Use of GA in SLEUTH has been tested
multiple times for better model calibration (Goldstein, 2004; Shan et al., 2008;
Clarke-Lauer and Clarke, 2011). Goldstein (2004) applied SLEUTH with a GA
algorithm to Sioux Falls, South Dakota. The 2011 study used elitism and
tournament selection, combining gene competition strategies, both uniform and
self-crossover and mutation. The simulation tested over 200 generations, with 18
chromosomes in each run, one Monte Carlo iteration, and calibration was repeated
10 times. The results showed that 70% of the chromosomes performed better than
brute force calibration technique with only one fifth of the CPU time resulting in a
better goodness of fit measure (Clarke-Lauer and Clarke, 2011). In another study
conducted by Shan et al. (2008), GA was used to enhance the efficiency of
transition rule calibration in SLEUTH. Their modification was tested in
Indianapolis, Indiana for 20 generations with 30 strings and used binary encoding,
elitism and rank selection, and single crossover and mutation (Clarke-Lauer and
Clarke, 2011). Their results showed that the model with GA calibration of
transition rules take 6.5 hours of computation time compared to 27 hours of
exhaustive search (Shan et al., 2008). Recently, Clarke-Lauer and Clarke (2011)
improved on Goldstein’s method (2004) to reach global optima and thus better
optimization results. They redesigned the calibration of the model and added
choices on encoding, fitness evaluation and survival selection. These approaches
were tested on the supplied demonstration ‘Demo_city’data (Clarke-Lauer and
Clarke, 2011). The results showed that using a GA for calibration may make only
minor improvements in the goodness of fit of the model but it greatly decreases the
computation time of calibration (by a factor of 5). The SLEUTH-GA source code
used by Clarke-Lauer and Clarke (2011) (Clarke-Lauer and Clarke, 2011) can be
found at https://sourceforge.net/projects/sleuth-ga/.
4. SLEUTH applications
The key aspects that made SLEUTH a popular land use change model were its
open access, availability of source code, and ease of use (Clarke, 2005). This part
94 Chaudhuri & Clarke / The International Journal of Environmental Resources Research 1, 1 (2013)
of the paper provides an overview of, first, the general applications of the model in
the United States and the rest of the world, followed by an overview of studies
where the model was coupled with other types of social and physical models. The
paper concludes with a review of applications of the model under different
scenarios. Figure 2 shows the published applications of SLEUTH until 2012.
Figure 2. Worldwide Application of SLEUTH Land Use Change Model (Please see
Appendix below for details)
Chaudhuri & Clarke / The International Journal of Environmental Resources Research 1, 1 (2013) 95
Gholamalifard, 2007), and for Pune (Kanta Kumar et al., 2011) and Hyderabad
(Gandhi and Suresh, 2012) in India. SLEUTH has been also used for simulating
urban sprawl in Pordenone, Italy and for testing theories of entropy (Martellozzo
and Clarke, 2011); for comparative study of urban sprawl among Padova-Mestre,
Palermo (Italy), Helsinki (Finland), and Bilbao (Spain) (Caglioni et al., 2006); for
comparison of urban growth at multiple resolutions between Chiang-Mai
(Thailand) and Taipei (Taiwan) (Sangawongse et al., 2005); for comparison
between urban growth patterns of the border towns of Nogales (Arizona, USA) and
Nogales (Sonora, Mexico) (Norman et al, 2009); and for modeling informal
settlements in Younde, Cameroon (Sietchiping, 2004).
5. Conclusion
Over the last 15 years, since its first publication, SLEUTH has continuously
been explored, modified and applied worldwide by the land use change modeling
and planning communities. Over these years, one of the biggest criticisms and yet a
strength of SLEUTH is its simplicity, which has led to an increasing number of
applications. Clarke et al. (2007) and Clarke (2008a) identified multiple limitations
of SLEUTH, some of which have been addressed since then, and these have been
reviewed in this paper, but some are yet to be explored. With increasingly efficient
computational infrastructure, new generations of geospatial data and, more
interdisciplinary applications, we are optimistic that these limitations can be
addressed successfully in the near future.
Acknowledgement
Details about the applications and modification of the model can be found in the
SLEUTH website’s Publication
(http://www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/projects/gig/Pub/pubs.htm) and Repository pages
(http://www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/projects/gig/Repository/SLEUTHapplications.html).
The authors would like to thank everybody who has made their work available to
98 Chaudhuri & Clarke / The International Journal of Environmental Resources Research 1, 1 (2013)
us. Work on SLEUTH over the years has been funded by the National Science
Foundation, the United States Geological Survey, the Environmental Protection
Agency and many others.
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