1.

3 Conditional Probability 習題第 1 頁共 4 頁

1.3-4 Three cards are drawn successively and without replacement from an ordinary deck of playing cards.
Compute the probability of drawing
(a) Three spades.
(b) A spade on the first draw, a heart on the second draw, and a diamond on the third draw.
(c) A spade on the first draw, a heart on the second draw, and an ace on the third draw.
13 12 11 11
解：(a) ∙ ∙ = 850
52 51 50
13 13 13 169
(b) ∙ ∙ = 10200
52 51 50
12 12 4 12 1 3 1 12 3 1 1 2 1
(c) ∙ ∙ + 52 ∙ 51 ∙ 50 + 52 ∙ 51 ∙ 50 + 52 ∙ 51 ∙ 50 = 204
52 51 50

1.3-6 A researcher finds that, of 982 men who died in 2002, 221died from some heart disease. Also, of the
982 men, 334 had at least one parent who had some heart disease. Of the latter 334 men, 111 died from
some heart disease. A man is selected from the group of 982. Given that neither of his parents had some
heart disease, find the conditional probability that this man died of some heart disease.
解：𝐻 = {died from some heart disease}

𝑃 = {at least one parent had some heart disease}

𝑃 𝑃′ Total
𝐻 111 110 221
𝐻′ 223 538 761
Total 334 648 982
𝑃(𝐻∩𝑃′ ) 110/982 110 55
𝑃 ( 𝐻 |𝑃 ′ ) = = 648/982 = 648 = 324
𝑃(𝑃′ )

1.3-8 An urn contains 17 balls marked LOSE and 3 balls marked WIN. You and an opponent take turns
selecting a single ball at random from the urn without replacement. The person who selects the third WIN
ball wins the game. It does not matter who selected the first two WIN balls.
(a) If you draw first, find the probability that you win the game on your second draw.
(b) If you draw first, find the probability that your opponent wins the game on his second draw.
(c) If you draw first, what is the probability that you win? Hint: You could win on your second, third,
fourth, …, or tenth draw, but not on your first.
(d) Would you prefer to draw first or second? Why?
3 2 1 1
解：(a) ∙ ∙ = 1140
20 19 18
3 17
( )( ) 1 1
2 1
(b) 20 ∙ =
( ) 17 380
3
3 17 3 17 3 17 3 17
( )( ) 1 ( )( ) 1 ( )( ) 1 ( )( ) 1 35
2 0 2 2 2 4 2 16
(c) 20 ∙ 18 + 20 ∙ 16 + 20 ∙ 14 + ⋯+ 20 ∙2 = 76
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2 4 6 18
 1.3 Conditional Probability 習題第 2 頁共 4 頁
35 41
(d) Draw second. 因為贏的機率為 1 − 76 = 76 較高。

1.3-9 An urn contains four balls numbered 1 through 4. The balls are selected one at a time without
replacement. A match occurs if the ball numbered 𝑚 is the mth ball selected. Let the event 𝐴𝑖 denote a
match on the ith draw, 𝑖 = 1, 2, 3, 4.
3!
(a) Show that 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ) = 4! for each 𝑖.
2!
(b) Show that 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ∩ 𝐴𝑗 ) = 4! , 𝑖 ≠ 𝑗.
1!
(c) Show that 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ∩ 𝐴𝑗 ∩ 𝐴𝑘 ) = 4! , 𝑖 ≠ 𝑗, 𝑖 ≠ 𝑘, 𝑗 ≠ 𝑘.
1 1 1
(d) Show that the probability of at least one match is 𝑃(𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ 𝐴3 ∪ 𝐴4 ) = 1 − 2! + 3! − 4!.

(e) Extened this exercise so that 𝑛 balls in the urn. Show that the probability of at least one match is
1! 1! 1! (−1)𝑛+1
𝑃(𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ ⋯ ∪ 𝐴𝑛 ) = 1 − + − + ⋯+ .
2! 3! 4! 𝑛!
1 1 1 1 (−1)𝑛
= 1 − (1 − 1! + 2! − 3! + 4! + ⋯ + 𝑛!
).
𝑥𝑛
(f) What is the limit of this probability as 𝑛 increases without bound? Hint: 𝑒 𝑥 = ∑∞
𝑛=0 𝑛! .

解：(a) 如下表格，以第 2 次恰巧抽中 2 號球(match)為例，其他 3 個位置排列法有3!種。

X 2 X X
3!
因此得證 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ) = 4! for each 𝑖.

(b) 如下表格，以第 2 次及第 3 次 match 為例，其他 2 個位置排列法有2!種。

X 2 3 X
2!
因此得證 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ∩ 𝐴𝑗 ) = 4! , 𝑖 ≠ 𝑗.

(c) 如下表格，以第 2 次、第 3 次及第 4 次 match 為例，其他 1 個位置排列法有1!種。

X 2 3 4
1!
因此得證 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ∩ 𝐴𝑗 ∩ 𝐴𝑘 ) = 4! , 𝑖 ≠ 𝑗, 𝑖 ≠ 𝑘, 𝑗 ≠ 𝑘.
3! 4 2! 4 1! 4 1 4 1 1 1
(d) 𝑃 (𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ 𝐴3 ∪ 𝐴4 ) = 4! ( ) − 4! ( ) + 4! ( ) − 4! ( ) = 1 − 2! + 3! − 4!.
1 2 3 4
(e) 𝑃(𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ ⋯ ∪ 𝐴𝑛 )
(𝑛 − 1)! 𝑛 (𝑛 − 2)! 𝑛 (𝑛 − 3)! 𝑛 (𝑛 − 4)! 𝑛 (𝑛 − 𝑛)! 𝑛
= ( )− ( )+ ( )− ( )+⋯+ ( ) (−1)𝑛+1
𝑛! 1 𝑛! 2 𝑛! 3 𝑛! 4 𝑛! 𝑛
1! 1! 1! (−1)𝑛+1
= 1 − + − + ⋯+
2! 3! 4! 𝑛!
1 1 1 1 (−1)𝑛
= 1 − (1 − 1! + 2! − 3! + 4! + ⋯ + ).
𝑛!
1 1 1 1 (−1)𝑛 (−1)𝑛
(f) 1 − (1 − 1! + 2! − 3! + 4! + ⋯ + + ⋯ ) = 1 − ∑∞
𝑛=0 = 1 − 𝑒 −1 .
𝑛! 𝑛!
 1.3 Conditional Probability 習題第 3 頁共 4 頁
1.3-10 A single card is drawn at random from each of six well-shuffled decks of playing cards. Let 𝐴 be the
event that all six cards drawn are different.
(a) Find 𝑃(𝐴).
(b) Find the probability that at least two of the drawn cards match.
52 51 50 49 48 47 8808975
解：(a) 𝑃(𝐴) = ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ = ≈ 0.74141
52 52 52 52 52 52 11881376

(b) 𝑃 (𝐴′) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − 0.74141 = 0.25859

1.3-11 Consider the birthdays of the students in a class of size 𝑟. Assume that the year consists of 365 days.
(a) How many different ordered samples of birthdays are possible (𝑟 in sample) allowing repetitions (with
replacement)?
(b) The same as part(a) , except requiring that all the students have differents birthdays (without
replacement)?
(c) If we can assume that each ordered outcome in part(a) has the same probability, what is the probability
that at least two students have the same birthday?
(d) For what value of 𝑟 is the probability in part(c) about equal to 1/2? Is this number surprisingly small?
Hint: Use a calculator or computer to find 𝑟.
解：(a) 365𝑟
(b) 365(364)(363) ⋯ (365 − 𝑟 + 1)
365(364)(363)⋯(365−𝑟+1)
(c) 1 − 365𝑟

365(364)(363)⋯(365−𝑟+1) 1
(d) 1 − ≈2
365𝑟

365(364)(363) ⋯ (365 − 𝑟 + 1) 1
≈
365𝑟 2
代入𝑟值，利用計算機求算出𝑟 = 23。

1.3-15 An urn contains eight red and seven blue balls. A second urn contains an unknown number of red balls
and nine blue balls. A ball is drawn from each urn at random, and the probability of getting two balls of the
same color is 151/300. How many red balls are in the second urn?
8 𝑥 7 9 151
解：15 ∙ 𝑥+9 + 15 ∙ 𝑥+9 = 300
8𝑥+63
=
151 8R xR
𝑥+9 20
7B 9B
160𝑥 + 1260 = 151𝑥 + 1359
9𝑥 = 99 ⇒ 𝑥 = 11
 1.3 Conditional Probability 習題第 4 頁共 4 頁
1.3-16 College degrees are held by 60% of the employees of a company, and 10% of the degree holders work
in sales. Among the employees who do not have college degrees, 80% work in sales. What is the
probability that an employee selected at random is a member of a sales team?
解：𝑃(𝐶 ) = 0.60, 𝑃 (𝑆|𝐶 ) = 0.10

𝑃(𝐶 ′) = 0.40, 𝑃 (𝑆|𝐶 ′) = 0.80

𝑃(𝑆) = (0.60)(0.10) + (0.40)(0.80) = 0.38