Addis Ababa University

Addis Ababa Institute of Technology

School of Graduate Studies

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation

(PMP) Using In-Situ and Reanalysis Global
Precipitation Products
( A CASE STUDY ON UAPPER BLUE NILE BASIN (UBNB))

A thesis submitted and presented to the school of graduate studies of Addis

Ababa University in partial fulfillment of the degree of Masters of Science in
Civil and Environmental Engineering (Major Hydraulic Engineering)

BY
Abenezer Endale

Advisor: Dr. Semu Ayalew

Co-Advisor: Dr.Ing. Dereje Hailu

Addis Ababa University

Ethiopia
June, 2016
 Addis Ababa University
Addis Ababa Institute of Technology
School of Graduate Studies

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)

Using In-Situ and Reanalysis Global Precipitation
Products
(A CASE STUDY ON UAPPER BLUE NILE BASIN (UBNB))

A thesis submitted and presented to the school of graduate studies of Addis Ababa
University in partial fulfillment of the degree of Masters of Science in Civil and
Environmental Engineering (Major Hydraulic Engineering)

BY
Abenezer Endale

Approval by Board of Examiners

---------------------------------------------------- ------------------
Advisor Signature

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Internal Examiner Signature

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External Examiner Signature

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Chairman (Department of Graduate Committee) Signature
 CERTIFICATION

The undersigned certify that he has read the Thesis entitled Estimation Probable
Maximum Precipitation (PMP) Using In-Situ and Reanalysis Global Precipitation
Products (A Case Study On Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB)) and hereby
recommend for acceptance by the Addis Ababa University in partial fulfillment of the
requirements for the degree of Master of Science.

..………………………………………...

Dr.Ing. Dereje Hailu

(Supervisor)

……………………………………………………………….
Date

ii
 DECLARATION AND COPY RIGHT

I, Abenezer Endale Baheru , declare that this is my own original work and that it has not
been presented and will not be presented to any other University for similar or any degree
award.

Signature_____________________________

Date______________________________

This dissertation is a copyright material protected under the Berne Convention, the Copy
Right Act, 1999 and other international and national enactments in the behalf, on the
intellectual property. It may not be produced by any means in full or in part, except for
short extracts in fair dealing, for research or private study, Critical scholarly review or
disclosure with an acknowledgement, without written permission of the School of
Graduate Studies, on the behalf of both the author and the Addis Ababa University.

Abenezer Endale
[email protected]
Pho.No.+251913638791
June, 2016

iii
 ACKNOWELEDGEMENT

Beyond all, I would like to give a glory to the almighty God for his giving abundant life and
grace through Christ Jesus in the enlightenment of Holy Spirit to did my thesis properly.
I would like to express my genuine gratitude and appreciation to Dr Semu Ayalew, and
Dr.Ing. Dereje Hailu for their encouragement, guidance and support from the initial to the
final level of this thesis.
I would like to say a special thank for EartH2Observe project for their technical and
financial support.
I would like to deliver a special thank for Mr. Dejene Sahlu, for his providing the reanalysis
data who is currently a PhD candidate in Ethiopian Institute of Water Resources (EIWR).
I also acknowledge, National Meteorological Service Agency, who supplied me in-situ
rainfall data free of charge.
I would like to say thanks my big sis and class met Kidist Demessie for her mapping
contours of the result using GIS software.
I am very grateful to Addis Ababa Institute of Technology, Department of Civil &
Environmental Engineering for allowing me to take part in the Master Program.
Finally, I would like to express my warm feeling of appreciation and tank to my friends
who helped me in all stages especially to Miretu Abirham, Birhan Tekiwam, Selamawit
Hafitu and all class met of Hydraulic Engineering who were spiritually with me, and gave
me the strength to finalize my duties successfully. Thanks for your encouragement and
true friendship! Your friendship meant a great deal to me.

Abenezer Endale
[email protected]
Pho.No.+251913638791
June, 2016

iv
 DEDICATION

Dedicated to Mission for Nation International Church and my beloved family.

v
 ABSTRACT

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is defined as theoretically the greatest depth of precipitation for
a given duration that is physically possible over a given size storm area at a particular geographical
location at a particular time of year. The PMP for rainfall stations in Ethiopia have been estimated by
Hershfield statistical method with frequency factor (K) determined by the Hershfield’s chart. But the chart
was originally developed by using over 2,700 metrological stations ninety percent of which were taken
from USA which might not give reliable estimates for a country like Ethiopia having different climatic
conditions with that of USA. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the frequency factor
obtained from the Hershfield’s chart and to provide fresh and reliable estimates of PMP using in-situ and
ECMWF, ECMWF bias corrected & GLADS reanalysis global precipitation products for UBNB and then
evaluate PMP value of reanalysis global precipitation products with the in situ PMP value. The study
shows both in-situ and reanalysis products for 1 day, 2 & 3 days the Km and PMP (mm) value are not
more than 11 and 875 respectively and GLADS precipitation product is adequately capture PMP with
respective to the in situ PMP result, and both ECMWF & ECMWF bias corrected reanalysis precipitation
products are inadequate to capture PMP value under this study area. Therefore, for ECMWF and
ECMWF bias corrected reanalysis precipitation product required data down scaling or other major data
improvement technique to capture PMP value adequately. Whereas, the computed PMP value as a sub
basin of UBNB are shown, three of them of the reanalysis products are not adequately captured the PMP
value with respective to the in-situ PMP value, so, the reanalysis products as sub basin of UBNB are not
practicable it needs minor and major data improvement techniques. In UBNB also comparison of the
PMP value using the new Km and the chart values for both in situ and reanalysis products exhibited
difference 38 up to 96.4%, this result confirmed the Hershfield’s chart overestimated PMP value which
leads to uneconomical designs. The average ratio of the PMP to the 10,000 years return period quantiles
for in situ, ECMWF, ECMWF bias Corrected and GLADS precipitation product for study area was found
to be about 1.7,1.6,1.8 and 1.3 respectively. this shows ECMWF, ECMWF bias corrected and GLADS
products are adequately captured the result of average ratio value of the in situ data.

KEY WORDS: PROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION, UPPER BLUE NILE BASIN,

HERSHFIELD STATISTICAL METHOD, and REANALYSIS GLOBAL PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTS.

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Table of Contents Page
CERTIFICATION ..............................................................................................................ii
DECLARATION AND COPY RIGHT ................................................................................ iii
ACKNOWELEDGEMENT ................................................................................................iv
DEDICATION .................................................................................................................. v
ABSTRACT .....................................................................................................................vi
LIST OF TABLE ............................................................................................................... x
LIST OF FIGURE .............................................................................................................xi
LIST OF TABLES and FIGURE IN THE APPENDIX ......................................................... xii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYM ................................................................ xiii
1.0 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND .................................................................... 1
1.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Description of the Study Area............................................................................................... 2
1.3 Climate and Rainfall Pattern of the Study Area.................................................................... 3
1.4 Problem Description ............................................................................................................. 4
1.5 Objectives of the Study ......................................................................................................... 5
1.5.1 General Objective .......................................................................................................... 5
1.5.2 Specific Objective of the Study ................................................................................ 5
1.6 Research Question ................................................................................................................ 6
1.7 Significance of the study....................................................................................................... 6
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................. 7
2.1 Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) .............................................................................. 7
2.1.1 Application of PMP in Spillway Design ........................................................................ 7
2.1.2 Maximum Observed Point Rainfalls.............................................................................. 8
2.1.3 International research for Estimating Extreme Precipitation ......................................... 9
2.1.4 Previous Studies and Application Trend in the Country ............................................. 12
2.1.5 World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Guidelines ............................................ 13
2.2 Reanalysis Global Precipitation Product ............................................................................ 14
2.2.1 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) .......................... 15
2.2.2 Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) ...................................................... 17
3.0 METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................... 20
3.1 A Criteria for Selecting Statistical Method ......................................................................... 20

vii
 3.1.1 Statistical Approach ..................................................................................................... 20
3.1.2 Physical Approach ....................................................................................................... 20
3.1.3 Empirical Approach ..................................................................................................... 21
3.2 Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) by Statistical Methods ....................................... 22
3.2.1 Procedure of New Km Development ........................................................................... 24
3.2.2 Adjustment of Mean and Standard deviation for Maximum Observed Events ........... 25
3.2.3 Adjustment of Mean and Standard Deviation for Sample Size ................................... 27
3.2.4 Adjustment of Data for Fixed Observational Time Intervals ...................................... 28
3.2.5 Transformation of Point PMP to Areal PMP ............................................................... 29
3.3 Frequency Distribution and Analysis.................................................................................. 30
3.3.1 Hydrologic Frequency Analysis .................................................................................. 30
3.3.2 Moments of Distributions ............................................................................................ 32
3.3.3 Method of Parameter Estimation ................................................................................. 34
3.3.4 Selection of Parameters and Quantile Estimation ............................................................ 36
4.0 DATA AVAILABLITY AND ANALYSIS .................................................................... 37
4.1 Rainfall Data Source ........................................................................................................... 37
4.2 Data Availability ................................................................................................................. 37
4.2.1 Gauge Stations for the Respective Sub Basin of UBNB ............................................. 39
4.3 Data Quality Control ........................................................................................................... 40
4.3.1 Checking of Reanalysis Precipitation Product with the In-Situ Data .......................... 40
4.3.2 Testing for Outliers ...................................................................................................... 42
4.3.3 Test for Independence .................................................................................................. 43
4.3.4 Homogeneity Test for the Data Series ......................................................................... 44
5.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ................................................................................ 47
5.1 The Rainfall Frequency Analysis........................................................................................ 47
5.1.1 Selection and Evaluation of Parent Distributions for the Rainfall Data ...................... 47
5.1.2 Parameters Selection and Quantile Estimation ............................................................ 50
5.2 Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)............................................................................ 53
5.2.1 Determination of Frequency Factor (K) Values Using Hershfield’s Frequency
Equation for UBNB .............................................................................................................. 53
5.2.2 Evaluating the Frequency factor (K) Values of the reanalysis products for a sub basin
of UBNB ............................................................................................................................... 56
5.2.3 Computed Maximum Frequency Factor (Km) Values Using Hershfield’s Frequency
Equation for a Sub Basin of UBNB. ..................................................................................... 58
5.2.4 Determination of Frequency Factor (K) Values Using Hershfield’s Chart. ................ 59

viii
 5.2.5 Comparison of the frequency factor (K) Values using Hershfield’s frequency equation
and Hershfield’s Chart. ......................................................................................................... 59
5.2.6 Estimation of PMP Using Hershfield’s Frequency Equation for the Upper Blue Nile
Basin ..................................................................................................................................... 61
5.2.7 Estimation of PMP Using Hershfield’s Chart and Compering the Result with the
computed PMP of Hershfield’s Frequency Equation. .......................................................... 64
5.2.8 Comparing the PMP Values with the 10,000 years Return Period Quantiles in the
Study Area ............................................................................................................................ 68
5.2.9 Comparing the PMP values of Some of Previous Dam Design Trend in UBNB with
this Study Results .................................................................................................................. 69
5.3 Construction of k and PMP Contour Maps for UBNB ....................................................... 70
6.0 SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................. 75
6.1 Summary and Conclusion ................................................................................................... 75
6.2 Recommendations ............................................................................................................... 77
7.0 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................... 78
APPENDIXES .............................................................................................................................. 81
APPENDIX A: Available Meteorological Stations Used for Upper Blue Nail Basin ................. 81
APPENDIX B: Available in Situ and Reanalysis Data for 1 day, 2 and 3 days’ durations ......... 84
APPENDIX C: Data Test Results for One Day Durations of in Situ Data................................. 175
APPENDIX D: Mathematical Expressions for Statistical Distributions of Annual Maximum
Series ........................................................................................................................................... 177
APPENDIX E: Estimated Rainfall Depths for in situ and Reanalysis Data for Different Return
Periods......................................................................................................................................... 179
APPENDIX F: Frequency Factor K Values for in situ and Reanalysis Data ............................. 203
APPENDIX G: Probable Maximum Precipitations (PMP) of Different Stations in the UBNB and
the Ratios of PMP to 10,000 Years Return Period Quantiles for in situ and Reanalysis data. . 207
APPENDIX H: K and PMP contour Maps of UBNB ................................................................ 217

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 LIST OF TABLE
Table 2-1 World’s greatest observed point rainfall ........................................................................ 9
Table 2-3 The ratios of the PMPs to the 10,000 Years events for the stations used..................... 12
Table 2-4 Basic characteristics of the GLDAS data ..................................................................... 19
Table 4.1 Summary of meteorological networks in Upper Blue Nile Basin ................................ 40
Table 4-2 Outliers Test for Wegel Tena Station ........................................................................... 43
Table 4-3 Homogeneity test result of Wegel Tena station for 1-day in-situ data ......................... 45
Table 5 -1 Candidate distributions for Finoteselam station .......................................................... 49
Table 5-2 Standard Error of different parameter estimation Methods for the best fitted
distributions................................................................................................................................... 50
Table 5-3 Best Fitted distributions and method of parameter estimation ..................................... 51
Table 5-4 Estimated Quantiles of different durations for finoteselam station .............................. 52
Table 5-5 shows the k value for in-situ 1-day duration at finoteselam station. ............................ 53
Table 5-6 The frequency factor K values for in-situ 1-day duration of the meteorological stations
in the Upper Blue Nile Basin ........................................................................................................ 54
Table 5-7 Number of stations for the given k value range for a 1-day duration of UBNB .......... 55
Table 5-8 Number of stations for the given k value range for a sub basin of UBNB................... 56
Table 5-9 Frequency factor (Km) Values for a sub basin of UBNB using Hershfield’s Frequency
Equation. ....................................................................................................................................... 58
Table 5-10: Frequency Factors for some of the stations in the basin having statistical values
fitting Pearson (III) distribution. ................................................................................................... 61
Table 5-11 Procedure for PMP estimation at Finoteselam station for in-situ 1-day durations..... 62
Table 5-12 Km and PMP Result for In-Situ and Reanalysis Data ................................................ 63
Table 5-13 PMP Values for a sub basin of UBNB using Hershfield’s Frequency Equation. ...... 64
Table 5-14 Comparison of the resulted PMP with the PMPs from the graphical method............ 65
Table 5-15 Comparison of the resulted PMP with the PMPs from the graphical method for 1-day
in situ and reanalysis data. ............................................................................................................ 68
Table 5-16 The ratio of PMP to the 10,000 years return period event ......................................... 69
Table 5-17 Compering PMP value of the previous dam design trend with this study result. ...... 70

x
 LIST OF FIGURE
Figure 1-1 Upper Blue Nile Basin ................................................................................................. 3
Figure 3-1 The Hershfield’s chart for determination of frequency factor Km ............................. 23
Figure 3-2 Adjustment of mean of annual series for maximum observed rainfall (Hershfield,
1961b) ........................................................................................................................................... 26
Figure 3-3 Adjustment of standard deviation of annual series for maximum observed Rainfall
(Hershfield, 1961b) ....................................................................................................................... 27
Figure 3-4 Adjustment of mean and standard deviation of annual series for length of record
(Hershfield, 1961b) ....................................................................................................................... 28
Figure 3-5 Depth area reduction curve ......................................................................................... 30
Figure 4 -1 Distribution of Rainfall stations over Upper Blue Nile Basins……………………...38
Figure 4 -2 station distribution on 0.25-degree grid box of GLADS …………………………....39
Figure 4-3 the scatter graph In-situ with ECMWF Product. ......................................................... 41
Figure 4-4 the scatter graph In-situ with ECMWF bias Corrected Product. ................................ 41
Figure 4-5 the scatter graph In-situ with GLADS Product. .......................................................... 42
Figure 5-1: MRD for 1-day in-situ rainfall depth at Finoteselam station ..................................... 48
Figure 5-2: L-MRD for 1-day in-situ rainfall depth at Finoteselam station ................................. 49
Figure 5-3 Frequency factor (K) Contour Maps of UBNB for in-situ 1-Day Durations using
Hershfield’s frequency equation ................................................................................................... 71
Figure 5-4 PMP (mm) Contour Maps of UBNB for in-situ 1-Day Durations using Hershfield’s
frequency equation ........................................................................................................................ 72
Figure 5-5 Frequency factor (K) Contour Maps of UBNB for in-situ 1-Day Durations using
Hershfield’s Chart. ........................................................................................................................ 73
Figure 5-6 PMP (mm) Contour Maps of UBNB for in-situ 1-Day Durations using Hershfield’s
Chart.............................................................................................................................................. 74

xi
 LIST of TABLES and FIGURE in the APPENDIX
Table B.1 Annual Maximum Rainfall of in-situ data for Different Stations in UBNB (mm) ... 84
Table B.2 Approximate longitude & latitude for the available stations in UBNB from the grid
longitude & latitude of the reanalysis data ................................................................................. 128
Table B.3 Annual Maximum Rainfall of ECMWF for 0.5 by 0.5 grid Size (mm)................... 131
Table B.4 Annual Maximum Rainfall of ECWMF-With Bias Corrected for 0.5 by 0.5 grid Size
(mm)…………………………………………………………………………………………….144
Table B.5 Annual Maximum Rainfall of GLADS for 0.25 by 0.25 grid Size (mm) ................ 156
Table G.1 Probable Maximum Precipitations (PMP) of different stations in the UBNB and the
ratios of PMP to 10,000 years return period quantiles for 1-day. ............................................... 207
Table G.2 Probable Maximum Precipitations (PMP) of different stations in the UBNB and the
ratios of PMP to 10,000 years return period quantiles for 2-day ................................................ 210
Table G.3 Probable Maximum Precipitations (PMP) of different stations in the UBNB and the
ratios of PMP to 10,000 years return period quantiles for 3-day ................................................ 214
Figure H1. Frequency factor (K) Contour Maps of UBNB for both in-situ and reanalysis
products using Hershfield’s frequency equation......................................................................... 217
Figure H2. PMP (mm) Contour Maps of UBNB for both in-situ and reanalysis products using
Hershfield’s frequency equation ................................................................................................. 219
Figure H3. Frequency factor (K) Contour Maps of UBNB both in-situ and reanalysis products
using Hershfield’s Chart. ............................................................................................................ 222
Figure H4. PMP (mm) Contour Maps of UBNB reanalysis products using Hershfield’s Chart. 224

xii
 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYM

AM Annual Maximum
BNRB Blue Nile River Basin
Cs Coefficient of skewness
Cv Coefficient of Variation
ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
EV1 Extreme Value 1
EXP Exponential
G.Patrio General Patrio
GEV Generalized Extreme Value
GLDAS Global Land Data Assimilation System
HDISC Hydrology Data and Information Services Center
IDW Inverse Distance Weighting
K Frequency factor
Km maximum Frequency factor
LLG Log Logistic
LMRD L-Moment Ratio Diagram
LN3 Log Normal 3
Masl Mean above sea level
ML Maximum Likelihood
MOM Method of Moment
MoWR Ministry of Water Resource
MRD Moment Ratio Diagram
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NMSA National Meteorological Service Agency
NOR Normal
NRC National Research Council
NWP Numerical weather prediction
P III Pearson 3
PMF Probable Maximum Flood

xiii
PMP Probable Maximum Precipitation
PWM Probability Weighted Moment
T Return Period
UBNB. Upper Blue Nile basin
WMO World Meteorological Organization

xiv
Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

1.0 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

1.1 Introduction

The Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) is one of the ranges of conceptual flood
events used in the design of hydrological structures to protect the structures from
overtopping and against damage. It is computed from the Maximum Probable
Precipitation (PMP) that is possible in the catchments. According to the world
meteorological organization definition (WMO, 2009), the Probable Maximum
Precipitation (PMP) is defined as theoretically the greatest depth of precipitation
for a given duration that is physically possible over a given size storm area at a
particular geographical location at a particular time of year. This PMP magnitude
together with its spatial and temporal distributions of occurrence can be used to
estimate the PMF at the dam site.
The practice of design of dam spillways in Ethiopia is widely employed using the
value of probable maximum flood (PMF) obtained from PMP. Apart from being
extremely large flood magnitude, the procedure adapted in the country is based
on graphical Herschfield’s estimation procedure (WMO, 1986, No.332) which is
not developed or adapted to the country. As a result, the cost of dam construction
in the country is high due to extremely high cost of spillway. This shows
discourages the planning and construction of dam facilities in the country for
alleviating poverty and food security. Therefore, the purpose of this study focuses
on evaluation of the frequency factor (Km) embedded in Hershfield’s frequency
equation of PMP using historical daily rainfall (in situ data) and reanalysis global
precipitation products and refine Km values that would adequately represent the
Upper Blue Nile basin (UBNB).
The procedure given by Hershfield,1961 will be used to develop the new Km and
the results compare with existing working elsewhere.

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

A re-analysis of global precipitation product where new retrieval techniques and

sensors would be evaluated for use in global precipitation estimates along with
higher space and time resolution data. due to such reasons it is useful to estimate
Km and PMP for UBNB using the reanalysis global precipitation products. For
this study select the two popular precipitation products, these are European
Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Land Data
Assimilation System (GLDAS).

1.2 Description of the Study Area

The Upper Blue Nile originates in the highlands of Ethiopia and Eretria, as do

the other major tributaries of the Nile, the Atbara and the Sobat. About 85% of
the Nile's waters originate in Ethiopia and Eretria, while the majority of the river's
water is used in the Sudan and Egypt.
The Abbay River basin lies in the west of Ethiopia between 7 ° 45` and 12 ° 45`
N, and 34 ° 05` and 39 ° 45` E. It drains towards Sudan on its western border and
shares common boundaries with the Tekeze basin to the north, the Awash basin
to the east and southeast, the Omo-Ghibe basin to the south, and Baro-Akobo
basin to the west. The total area of the basin is 199,812 km 2 including Lake Tana
which has an area of about 4,070 km2. About 46, 31 and 23% of the total basin
area falls in Amhara, Oromiya and Benishangul-Gumuz respectively. The
population of the basin is about 14.23 million out of which about 64%, 33% and
3% are in Amhara, Oromiya and Benshangul-Gumuz respectively. The
population percentage of urban areas is about 9.3%.
Physiographical the basin is dominated by part of the western highland plateau
of Ethiopia tilting gently westwards from the rift valley that splits it from the eastern
plateau. Generally, about two-third of the basin area falls in the highlands above
1,500 masl altitude rising to over 4,000 masl. (MoWR).

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Figure 1-1 Upper Blue Nile Basin

1.3 Climate and Rainfall Pattern of the Study Area

The climate of Upper Blue Nile basin/UBNB/ is dominated by two factors; its
near-equatorial location and altitude. The influence of these factors determines
the rich variety of local climates ranging from hot and desert-like along the Sudan
border to temperate on the high plateau and cold on the mountain peaks. Annual
rainfall varies between 800 to 2,200 mm with a mean value of about 1,420 mm.
The mean temperature of the basin is 18.5 ° C with a minimum and maximum
average daily temperature of 11.4 and 25.5 ° C respectively. Accordingly, the
basin exhibits two main agro-ecology zones namely highland with altitudes
above 1500 masl and lowlands below 1500 masl.
There are three recognized seasons, the main Rainy season (kiremt) lasts
generally from June to September during which south west winds bring rains
from Atlantic Ocean, about 70-90% of total Rainfall occurs during this season. A
dry season (Bega) lasts from October to January during which clear skies are
associated with maximum sun shine and low relative humidity. Finally, the minor
rainy season (Belg) lasts from February to May during which south-East winds

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

bring the small rains from the Indian ocean and temperatures are at their highest
level. The timing and duration of these seasons varies considerably by location.
Spatial characteristics combine with these seasonal characteristics to define the
pattern of the climate in different areas.
Four readily-identified areas can be described according to their climatic
conditions, two with relatively high rainfall and two with relatively low rainfall.
These are: -
 A southern area covering much of east and west Wellega, Jimma and
Illubabor Zone (Region 4)
 A central area covering most of west Gojam and Agew Awe (Region 3) as
well as part of the neighboring zones of region 3 & 6.
 An area covering most of eastern part of the basin, including North and
south Wello, eastern part of Eastern. Gojam and south Gondar (all in
region 3) and much of North and NW. Shewa (Region 4), but excluding
small areas in the mountains, and
 A west and north west area covering north Gondar in Region3 and much
of (Region 6)

1.4 Problem Description

Due to lack of properly established probable maximum flood (PMF) procedure,

professionals and practitioners alike tend to use the Hershfield’s graphical
procedure to estimating the PMP and convert it into PMF. This method apparently
is not well tested in the country and created heightened concern and debate.
According to some research outputs in China, Romania (M.N. Desa et al. (2003)
and P.R. Rakhecha) and other countries, the graphical procedure was found to
overestimate the actual values. Therefore, the purpose of this study focuses on
evaluation of the frequency factor (Km) embedded in Hershfield’s frequency
equation of PMP using historical daily rainfall (in situ data) and reanalysis global
precipitation products and refine Km values that would adequately represent the

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Upper Blue Nile basin (UBNB) and on estimation of reliable PMP values of the
stations in the basin for 1 day, 2 and 3 days’ durations.
The procedure given by Hershfield, D. M., 1965 will be used to develop the new
Km and the results are compared with the existing works made elsewhere.

1.5 Objectives of the Study

1.5.1 General Objective

The overall objective of this study is to develop Regionalized probable maximum

precipitation (PMP) for Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) development and
application in design flood hydrograph.

1.5.2 Specific Objective of the Study

 To evaluate the frequency factor (Km) embedded in Hershfield’s frequency

equation for UBNB using in-situ and ECMWF, ECMWF bias corrected &
GLADS reanalysis global precipitation products.
 To compare the frequency factor (Km) result in Hershfield’s frequency
equation with the values obtained from the Hershfield’s chart.
 To provide fresh and reliable estimates of PMP in UBNB using upper
mentioned frequency factor for both the in-situ and reanalysis precipitation
product.
 To Compute the maximum rainfall depths (Quantiles) for different return
periods.
 To Compute the ratio of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) values
with the 10,000 years return period Quantiles for different durations.
 To evaluate the Km, PMP and the upper mentioned ratio values of
ECMWF, ECMWF bias corrected & GLADS products from the respective
in situ results.

 To produce K and PMP maps of the UBNB for both Hershfield’s frequency
equation and Hershfield’s chart using GIS.

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 To compare the PMP values of some of previous dam design trend in

UBNB with this study results.

1.6 Research Question

 Does the reanalysis global precipitation product capture the PMP values
adequately?
 Can we develop a better regionalized PMP maps assimilated from re-
analysis and in-situ product?

1.7 Significance of the study

This paper will assist engineers and hydrologists in developing extreme flood
estimates for major water resources engineering works and projects and to
promote a relatively uniform approach to developing estimates of the Probable
Maximum Flood (PMF) of very low probability for purposes of project design or
evaluation, and to improve the consistency of estimates .Because deficiencies in
PMP estimates result in similar deficiencies in PMF determination, a risk-based
approach to hydraulic design criteria Engineers must often consider storm run-
off when building a new structure. One of the steps in many hydrologic design
projects is the determination of the rainfall events or events to be used.
The estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) for the basin is an
important task for various engineering works such as spillway design for dams of
the highest hazard category. It is therefore, anticipated that institutions and
individuals involved in these sector will utilize the result of this study.

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2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Probable maximum precipitation (PMP)
The PMP and PMF concepts were developed in the USA in the mid-twentieth
century as a result of dissatisfaction with empirically or statistically based design
flood estimates for major structures, and partly as a response to catastrophic
failures. The concepts have since been adopted in many countries for high-
hazard dams. Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is defined by the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO,2009 No 1045) as theoretically the greatest
depth of precipitation for a given duration that is physically possible over a given
size storm area at a particular geographical location at a certain time of year. The
idea is that at a given location with a given climate, an upper bound to
precipitation can be estimated by analyzing the meteorology of historic storms
and maximizing the key causative factors.
Although the PMP has a theoretical exceedance probability of zero, meaning that
it is so large that it will never be exceeded, this is not the case in reality.
Consequently, a few studies have sought to assign a risk statement to PMP
estimates. (NRC, 1994). Estimates of extreme floods have long been used to
design the flood-handling facilities of major dams whose failure might cause loss
of life or extensive property damage.

2.1.1 Application of PMP in Spillway Design

The hydrologic problem typically addressed in dam safety analysis is the
determination of the capacity of the spillway needed to prevent catastrophic
failure of the dam due to overtopping. The PMF is generally accepted as the
design inflow for evaluating the spillway when there is potential loss of life due to
dam failure in high hazard situations.
As per the first edition of Dam Safety Guidelines by the Canadian Dam
Association (CDA 1999) dams are classified into four categories according to the
perceived incremental consequences of failure these are very high, high, low and

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very low dams. The criteria for the design flood as stated in CDA, 1999 are as
follows.
 For very high dams: the PMF developed as a result of PMP is mandatory.
 For high dams: the design flood may be selected between the PMF and
the 1000-years flood.
 For low dams: the design flood may be selected between the 1000-year
and the 100-year floods.
 For very low dams the design flood selected is less than100-year floods.

The PMF represents an estimated upper bound on the maximum runoff potential
for a particular watershed. In some sense, the inherent assumption is that a dam
with a spillway designed to pass this flood has zero risk of overtopping.

2.1.2 Maximum Observed Point Rainfalls

Some of the largest point rainfalls for selected durations that have been observed
are given in the following table. These values, which approach probable
maximum precipitation magnitude, are enveloped by the approximate equation:

P = 422 T0.475 (konrad ,1995 )

Where: P is rainfall in millimeters, and T is duration in hours

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Table 2-1 World’s greatest observed point rainfall

Duration Depth Location Date

(mm)
1 min 38 Barot, Guadeloupe 26 November 1970
1h00 min 401 Shangdi, Nei Monggol, China 3 July 1975
6h 840 Muduocaidang,Nei 1 August 1977
Monggol, China
24h 1825 Foc Foc, La Réunion 7-8 January 1966
2 days 2467 Aurere, La Réunion 7-9 April 1958
3 days 3130 Aurere, La Réunion 6-9 April 1958
7 days 5003 Commerson, La Réunion 21-27 January 1980
31 days 9300 Cherrapunji, India 1-31 July 1861
1 year 26461 August 1860-July
Cherrapunji, India 1861

2 years 40768 Cherrapunji, India 1860-1861

Revised: 29 November 1991, U.S.A. NWS; U.S.A. Bureau of Reclamation;

Australian Bureau of Meteorology

2.1.3 International research for Estimating Extreme Precipitation

Svensson & Jones (2010a) carried out a review of rainfall frequency estimation
methods, looking at methodologies currently applied in nine different countries

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Table 2-2 Methodology for estimating extreme precipitation for nine countries.
Country Description of methods
Sweden The Swedish energy industry has developed procedures for dam design and safety (CMconsulting.no), including estimation of large return
periods and PMP through the NERC method and areal reduction, as in Norway. At the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
(SMHI) estimation of extreme precipitation in points is performed by fitting observations of annual maxima to one of three distributions:
Gumbel, GEV or GEV with constant theta (Wern & German, 2009). For areal precipitation a gridded data set is used and all grid points
within a square of the respective area is analyzed (Asp, personal communication).
Denmark Lundholm & Cappelen (2010) and Lundholm (2011) performed an analysis of extreme precipitation in Denmark for the periods 1961-2010
and 1874-2010, respectively. They use a peak-over-threshold (POT) method to estimate return periods at selected locations. Thresholds
are chosen according to recommendations in Coles (2001) in order to find the smallest possible value that assures a Generalized Pareto
Distribution (GPD). Thus all parameters of the extreme value distribution should be close to constant.
Finland At the Finnish Meteorological institute (FMI) an analysis of 1, 5, and 14-day point and areal precipitation for areas of different sizes was
performed, using observations of annual maxima from 1959-1998 and the Gumbel distribution (Solantie & Uusitalo, 2000; Veijalainen, 2011;
Rissanen, 2011). Areal design precipitation totals were defined by two criteria; 1) the return period for the entire country should be more or
equal to 50 years, and 2) the return period in the target region should be higher or equal to 10 000 years. The 10 000 year return
values are used in dam safety in Finland.
Iceland For estimation of extreme precipitation with defined return periods Elíasson (1999) apply the NERC M5 index parameter and an intensity-
duration distribution function. A large scale M5 map was compiled for the entire country, while M5 maps in town planning scales were made
available for populated areas using all precipitation information available in the area of interest. A generalized intensity-duration-frequency
(IDF) relationship is suggested in Elíasson (1997): I = M5fTg(tr), where I is the intensity, fT is a function of the return period, and g(tr) is a
function of the duration. The NERC method was earlier used in PMP estimation (Elíasson, 1991), however, due to lack of precipitation data,
Elíasson (1997) suggested a different model for estimating PMP using a Gumbel distribution function on 24-hour precipitation annual
maxima. The Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) recently produced a gridded dataset of daily precipitation with 1 km resolution using an
orographic precipitation model (Crochet et al., 2007), which in the future will be applied in deriving statistics on extreme areal precipitation.

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United The NERC method is used for return periods of 1000 years or longer. The FORGEX method (Reed et al., 1999) fitted to a depth-duration-
Kingdom frequency (DDF) model is applied for shorter return periods (Faulkner, 1999).
Ireland Methodology for estimating point rainfall frequencies is described in Fitzgerald (2007). A Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) model is
developed, consisting of an index rainfall value and a growth curve providing a multiplier of the index rainfall. The index rainfall is the median
and the growth curve is the log-logistic distribution. Series of annual maxima are converted to sliding durations, and the DDF model is fitted
to the series. Median rainfall and DDF parameters (with enforced consistency) are interpolated to a 2km grid using a kriging method, and
return levels are estimated on the same grid

United An index flood approach, (e.g. Stedinger et al., 1993), is used with the mean annual maxima precipitation as index. Homogeneous regions
States are defined, and the most suitable probability distribution is selected for each region. L-moment statistics is applied to estimate growth curves,
which are multiplied with the site index to obtain extreme precipitation estimates (Perica et al., n.d.).
Canada Precipitation frequency analysis is performed using mean and standard deviation of annual maximum rainfall series, estimated from the
method of moments, and a frequency-factor formulation of the Gumbel distribution. Gumbel parameters are presented in maps and updated
IDF values for 549 points exist (Hogg et al., 1989; Hogg & Carr, 1985). PMP is estimated according to Hershfield (1977)
Australia The 50-year precipitation is computed from a fitted Log-Pearson Type 3 distribution and used as index in the index-food method CRC-
FORGE (Weinmann et al., 1999) which estimates return levels up to 2000 years. PMP is estimated from the 2000-year rainfall and is assigned
a return period of 10 000 and 10 000 000 years, depending on area size. The growth curve is estimated from a version of the station-year
approach to create a single long regional series

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2.1.4 Previous Studies and Application Trend in the Country

The practice of design of dam spillways in Ethiopia is widely employed using the
value of probable maximum flood (PMF) obtained from PMP. Apart from being
extremely large flood magnitude, the procedure adapted in the country is based
on graphical Herschfield’s estimation procedure (WMO, 1986, No.332).
The final feasibility report taken from the ministry of water resources of the
country entitled Lake Tana Sub-Basin Four Dams Project support the above idea
they used the upper mentioned procedure for the design of Ribb and Megech
dams. The PMPs of both dams were estimated using the Hershfield’s graphical
method for the durations of 24, 48 and 72 hours. The frequency analyses were
also carried out in the report to obtain the 10,000 years return period rainfall
events having the above mentioned durations. As per the results obtained in the
report the ratios of the PMP values to the 10,000 years’ rainfall events reach up
to 3 times.
The following table shows the results of the studies for different stations around
the dam sites.

Table 2-3 The ratios of the PMPs to the 10,000 Years events for the stations used

PMP The 10,000 The ratios of

years return PMP to
Station used for design of Duration PMP depth
period events 10,000 years
the dams (hours) (mm) (mm) events
24 322 133 2.4
Debre Tabor (for the Ribb
48 347 166.8 2.1
dam design)
72 449 192.4 2.3
24 339 151 2.2
Gondar(for the Megech
48 476 181 2.6
Dam design)
72 588 197 3.0

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The above table shows that the established methodologies for PMP estimation
in the country over estimate the PMP values. As a result, the cost of dam
construction in the country is high due to high cost of spillway. Similar procedures
have been taking place for other studies in the country.

2.1.5 World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Guidelines

According to “Manual on Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)”

(WMO, 2009), six methods of PMP estimation currently exist:
 Local method: The observed maximum storm is used to estimate PMP
 Transposition method: An extraordinary large storm close by is transposed
to the watershed area.
 Combination method: Two or more storms in the area are combined to
produce a sequence of artificial storms with long duration. This method
can be applied in large watersheds and requires meteorological expertise
 Inferential method: A simplified physical equation describing the 3-D
spatial structure of a storm is created. This method can be applied in
medium to large watersheds and requires upper meteorological
measurements in the area.
 Generalized method: Observed rainfall is separated into convergence
and orographic rainfall in a large meteorologically homogeneous region.
The method is time consuming and expensive and requires a large dataset
of long-term rainfall measurements in the area. However, the results are
likely to be of high accuracy.
 Statistical method (proposed by Hershfield, USA): The hydrological
frequency analysis method is applied on data from several rain gauges, in
combination with the regional generalized method. The area should be
smaller than 1000km2 and meteorologically homogeneous.

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For very large watersheds the following two methods are also applied:
 The major temporal and spatial combination method Hydro-meteorological
methods are applied on the part of PMP that has the larger temporal and
spatial influence on PMF, while the common correlation method and flood
distribution method are applied on the part of PMP with smaller influence.
The method combines temporal and spatial conditions.
 The storm simulation method based on historical floods Hydrological
watershed models are applied in producing a storm with the potential to
create an observed historical flood, and PMP is estimated by maximizing
moisture.
In addition, a number of techniques for adjusting PMP estimates to orographic
regions exist. In some cases, it is recommended to estimate areal precipitation
using more than one method in order to obtain thorough hydrological estimates,
especially in ungauged catchments like the mountain areas.

2.2 Reanalysis Global Precipitation Product

The reanalysis dataset is technology based which are used for data generation
instead of observed data, when there is sparse of observed data. There are
different types of dataset based on their area of application such as: Snow Cover
(SC) used to generate the snow cover data, Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC)
for River mean daily Discharge Data, ECMWF Forcing for meteorological data,
European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and Global
Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and etc. Each of the dataset including
the datasets which are not explained are used as input and output data instead
of observed data, when full and enough record length of observed data are not
available.
Reanalysis makes use of data assimilation systems designed for weather
forecasting. It uses a single model and analysis method for a consistent re-
analysis of past observations.

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2.2.1 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, is an

independent intergovernmental organization supported by most of the nations of
Europe and is based at Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom. It operates one
of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive
of numerical weather prediction data.
 Background: ECMWF was established in 1975, in recognition of the need
to pool the scientific and technical resources of Europe's meteorological
services and institutions for the production of weather forecasts for
medium-range timescales (up to approximately two weeks) and of the
economic and social benefits expected from it. members as of 2015 co-
operation agreement It comprises 21 European countries:
 the eighteen founding states of 1975: Austria, Belgium, Denmark,
Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Republic of Ireland, Italy,
Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom.
 three states that joined since 2010: Iceland (April 2011), Slovenia
(December 2012)[ and Serbia (January 2015). It also has co-
operation agreements with other states: Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech
Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Israel, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia,
Montenegro, Morocco, Romania and Slovakia. The Centre
employs about 280 staff, mostly appointed from across the member
states and co-operating states.
 Objectives: ECMWF aims to provide accurate medium-range global
weather forecasts out to 15 days and seasonal forecasts out to 12 months.
Its products are provided to the national weather services of its member
states and co-operating states as a complement to their national short-
range and climatological activities, and those national states use

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ECMWF's products for their own national duties, in particular to give early
warning of potentially damaging severe weather.
ECMWF's core mission is to:
 produce numerical weather forecasts and monitor the Earth-system;
 carry out scientific and technical research to improve forecast skill;
 maintain an archive of meteorological data.
To deliver this core mission, the Centre provides:
 twice-daily global numerical weather forecasts;
 air quality analysis;
 atmospheric composition monitoring;
 climate monitoring;
 ocean circulation analysis;
 hydrological prediction.
The Centre develops and operates global atmospheric models and data
assimilation systems for the dynamics, thermodynamics and
composition of the Earth's atmosphere and for interacting parts of the
Earth-system. It uses numerical weather prediction methods to prepare
forecasts and their initial conditions, and it contributes to monitoring the
relevant parts of the Earth system.
 Reanalysis: ECMWF makes significant contributions to support research
on climate variability, pioneering an approach known as reanalysis. This
involves feeding weather observations collected over decades into a
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) system to recreate past atmospheric,
sea- and land-surface conditions over specific time periods to obtain a
clearer picture of how the climate has changed. Reanalysis provides a
four-dimensional picture of the atmosphere and effectively allows
monitoring of the variability and change of global climate, thereby
contributing also to the understanding and attribution of climate change.
To date, and with support from Europe's National Meteorological Services

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and the European Commission, ECMWF has conducted two major

reanalysis of the global atmosphere: the first ECMWF re-analysis (ERA-
15) project generated reanalysis from December 1978 to February 1994;
the ERA-40 project generated reanalysis from September 1957 to August
2002.Over the past three decades ECMWF's wide-ranging programme of
research has played a major role in developing such assimilation and
modelling systems.[http://www.ecmwf.int/]

2.2.2 Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)

Global hydrological data such as soil moisture and evaporation are crucial for
understanding the land surface process and the atmospheric general circulation
modeling for climate simulation and weather forecasting. The Hydrologic
Sciences Branch (HSB) at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has
collected a series of surface hydrological data sets in order to enable a better
understanding of the global hydrospheric cycle. These data sets include field
measurements, parameters simulated from land surface models, and products
derived from many satellite instruments.
NASA is mandated by Congress to make its data and products available to the
broader user community. The Hydrology Data and Information Services Center
(HDISC) was developed as part of the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and
Information Services Center (GES DISC) to archive and support data products
generated by the GSFC HSB.
HDISC is a portal to a hydrology-specific, on-line, easy-access archive and
distribution system, employing data analysis and visualization, data sub setting,
and other user-requested techniques for better science data usage. HDISC
provides convenient access to hydrology data and information from various land
surface models. The first products hosted are outputs from the Global Land Data
Assimilation System (GLDAS) (Rodell et al., 2004). The HDISC has the capability
to support more hydrology data products and more advanced analysis tools. The

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goal is to develop HDISC as a data and services portal that supports weather and
climate forecast, and water and energy cycle research.
 Objectives: The goal of the Global Land Data Assimilation System
(GLDAS) is to ingest satellite- and ground-based observational data
products, using advanced land surface modeling and data assimilation
techniques, in order to generate optimal fields of land surface states and
fluxes (Rodell et al., 2004a).
 Background: GLDAS drives multiple offline (not coupled to the
atmosphere) land surface models, integrates a huge quantity of
observation based data, and executes globally at 2.5° to 1 km resolutions,
enabled by the Land Information System (LIS) (Kumar et al., 2006).
Currently, GLDAS drives four land surface models: Mosaic, Noah, the
Community Land Model (CLM), and the Variable Infiltration Capacity
(VIC). GLDAS products include land surface state (e.g., soil moisture and
surface temperature) and flux (e.g., evaporation and sensible heat flux)
parameters. For example, the total evapotranspiration for April 1979 is the
average 3-hour mean rate of evapotranspiration over all the 3-hour
intervals in April 1979. Table 2-4 lists some basic characteristics of the
GLDAS data.

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Table 2-4 Basic characteristics of the GLDAS data

Water and energy budget components, forcing
Contents data
Latitude extent -60° to 90°N
Longitude extent -180° to 180°E
Spatial resolution 0.25°, 1.0°
Temporal resolution 3-hourly or monthly
January 1, 1979 to present for the 1.0° data
Temporal coverage February 24, 2000 to present for the 0.25° data
360 (longitude) x 150 (latitude) for the 1.0° data
1440 (longitude) x 600 (longitude) for the 0.25°
Dimension data
(179.5W, 59.5S) for the 1.0° data (179.875W,
Origin (1st grid center) 59.875S) for the 0.25° data
Land surface models CLM 2.0 (1.0°)
MOSAIC (1.0°)
NOAH 2.7.1 (1.0°)
VIC water balance (1.0°)
NOAH 2.7.1 (0.25°)

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3.0 METHODOLOGY
3.1 A Criteria for Selecting Statistical Method
The various methods which can be used for estimating probable maximum
precipitation amounts are classified into three major groups.
These are:
1. Statistical Approach,
2. Physical Approach, and
3. Empirical Approach

3.1.1 Statistical Approach

In the statistical approach the estimates of PMP are derived from frequency
analysis of the annual maximum rainfall series for different durations . Statistical
method for estimating PMP has been developed by Hershfield (1961, 1965)
based on a general frequency equation given by Chow (1951). The use of
statistical method in different countries has shown that the computed PMP
estimates are closely comparable to those obtained by the meteorological
method. WMO (1969, 1970, 1986, 2009) has suggested this method for
estimating PMP for stations having long period of daily rainfall data. Considering
this, many countries have employed the statistical method extensively for
estimating PMP for stations having a long period of rainfall records (Myers 1967;
Bruce and Clark, 1966; Rakhecha et al., 1992, 1994). The statistical method is
useful when there is insufficient meteorological data to apply other methods.

3.1.2 Physical Approach

The physical approach is primarily concerned with the estimation of probable

maximum precipitation (PMP) which can be defined as the theoretical highest
precipitation amount which is physically possible over a locality for a given
duration. Values of PMP are therefore dependent on the humidity content of the
air and maximum efficiency of release. Values of PMP are usually estimated by

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the physical method of storm transposition and maximization described by Bruce

and Clark (1966, p. 230-233) or by the use of storm models such as the hurricane
model used by the US Weather Bureau to make generalized estimates of PMP
for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (US Weather Bureau, 1961).
The storm model approach uses physical parameters, such as surface dew point,
height of storm cell, and inflow and outflow, to represent the precipitation process
(Collier and Hardaker 1996). Storm transposition involves translating observed
storm characteristics from one or more gauged locations to the location where
the PMP estimation is required (typically an ungauged location). Storm
maximization consists of adjusting observed precipitation amounts upward to
account for maximum atmospheric moisture convergence. Generalized PMP
methods are often developed by maximizing and translating classes of storms
over a broad region; storm classification in turn is based on the storm type, and
storm efficiency defined as the ratio of maximum observed rainfall to the amount
of perceptible water in the storm column (Collier and Hardaker 1996).
Physical methods of estimating the PMP are rather complex and require
meteorological data which are often not available. They also make several
assumptions which may not always be valid (Bruce and Clark, 1966, p. 231).

3.1.3 Empirical Approach

The empirical approach to the estimation of extreme rainfalls utilizes the available
data just like the statistical approach. The US Weather Bureau has carried out
some studies utilizing data on heavy rainfall occurrences extracted from
autographic records. From these, an enveloping curve can be drawn to show the
maximum rainfall likely to be obtained in any given time. The reliability of such
estimates obviously depends on the duration and quality of rainfall records as
well as the number of gauges involved especially if a catchment is being
considered.

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The statistical approach is often found to be quick and reliable and is therefore
often preferred to the physical or empirical approach to the estimation of extreme
rainfall. But the statistical method demands that the assumptions underlying the
particular distribution function used be satisfied and the sample size used to be
large.

3.2 Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) by Statistical

Methods
Hershfield (1961, 1965) based on a general frequency equation given by Chow
(1951) suggested that PMP for a station can be estimated from the following
equation:
PMP = X n + Km σn………………………………………………………......[3.1]

Where : X n and σn are the mean and standard deviation for a series of n
annual maximum rainfall values of a given duration respectively. Km is the
frequency factor and is the largest of all the calculated K values for all stations in
a given area. The value of K is calculated using the following equation:

K  ( X 1  X n  1) ……...…...…………………………..[3.2]
 n 1
Where X1, X n-1 and σn-1 are the highest, mean and standard deviation
respectively excluding the X1 value from the series. In a survey of more than 2700
stations world over, Km values as calculated from equation 3.2 vary from less
than 3 to a highest value of 14.5. Hershfield adopted the highest value rounded
to 15 for estimating PMP,
i.e. PMP = X n + 15 σn …………………………….………………[3.3]
Later Hershfield found that use of Km=15 was not appropriate. He noted that K
varies inversely with mean annual maximum rainfall at any station and presented
a chart for determining Km for 5-min, 1-h, 6-h, and 24-h durations of mean annual
maximum rainfall as shown below.

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Figure 3-1 The Hershfield’s chart for determination of frequency factor Km

The curves of Figure 3-1 are based on observed data from 2700 stations 90
percent of which were in the United States, where observations were at least
daily for a period of at least 10 years. As a matter of fact, there are several
measurements of rainfall in the United States made at locations other than where
there are official gauges that exceed the PMP values calculated from this
statistical procedure (Riedel, 1977). Computation of Km for Canada (McKay,
1965) indicated a maximum value of 30 associated with a mean annual maximum
24-hours rainfall amount of 15mm.
Similar research project within the Austrian Academy of Sciences (Nobilis et al.,
1990) using a series of the annual daily maximum precipitation at 504 observation
stations are investigated by using the method of Hershfield (WMO, 1986) for
PMP-estimation The results show that according to the Hershfield method for
some stations PMP amounts are evaluated which are far below the observed
values. The method is found to be inadequate for series with "outliers" because

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the factor of Hershfields chart for used for determination of K values is a function
of the average values.
The research outputs of countries like China and Romania also showed that that
their frequency factor (Km) value varies between 6 and 8.5 for their respective
countries and rejected the Hershfields chart as it over estimates the PMP. (Desa
et al. (2001) and M.N. Desa et al. (2003) and NIHWM, Bucharest, ROMANIA)
Desa et al. (2001) and M.N. Desa et al. (2003) employed the Hershfield method
to find out the appropriate frequency factor that can give reliable PMP values for
stations in Malaysia for practical application.
They analyzed the series of the annual daily maximum rainfall amounts for
stations in Selangor and Kelantan states and obtained the appropriate frequency
factors of 8.7 and 7.4 respectively. These values are applied to calculate the PMP
values in these two study areas.
In view of the above mentioned problems and resent research outputs, the
Hershfield’s chart might not give reliable frequency factor estimates world over.
It was therefore felt that an appropriate Km value based on historical data of
particular study area might give better estimates of PMP than Hershfield’s chart.

3.2.1 Procedure of New Km Development

The Hershfield method is used to find out the appropriate frequency factor that
can give reliable PMP values for stations in the study area for practical
application. But here the annual maximum rainfall amounts series of the stations
found in the study area is used for the analysis.
This involves standardizing the residual (maximum rainfall minus mean of annual
maxima) by dividing it by the standard deviation to obtain the frequency factor as
indicated in equation 3.2 above. The frequency factor is analogous to the normal
deviate or reduced variate when normally distributed or extreme-value data are
analyzed, respectively.

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After determining the appropriate Km values for the study area different
adjustments have to be carried out for the maximum observed events before
using them for subsequent calculations

3.2.2 Adjustment of Mean and Standard deviation for Maximum Observed

Events

Extreme rainfall amounts of rare magnitude or occurrence, such as with return

periods of 500 or more years, are often found to have occurred at some time
during a much shorter period of record, e.g, 30 years. Such a rare event, called
an outlier, may have an appreciable effect on the mean and standard deviation
of the annual series. The magnitude of the effect is less for long records than for
short, and it varies with the rarity of the event, or outlier. This has been studied
by Hershfield (1961) using the hypothetical series of varying length, and the
following figures were made to show the adjustments to be made to mean and
standard deviations to compensate for outliers.

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Figure 3-2 Adjustment of mean of annual series for maximum observed rainfall
(Hershfield, 1961b)

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Figure 3-3 Adjustment of standard deviation of annual series for maximum

observed Rainfall (Hershfield, 1961b)

In the figures Xn-m and Sn-m refer, respectively, to the mean and standard deviation
of the annual series computed after excluding the maximum item in the series. It
should be noted that these relationships consider only the effect of maximum
observed event. No consideration was given to other anomalous appearing
observations.

3.2.3 Adjustment of Mean and Standard Deviation for Sample Size

The mean and standard deviation of the annual series tend to increase with
length of record, because the frequency distribution of rainfall extremes is skewed
to the right so that there is a greater chance of getting a large than a small
extreme as length of record increases. Figure 3-4 shows the adjustments to be
made to the mean and standard deviation for length of record. There were

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relatively few rainfall records longer than 50 years available for evaluating the
effect of sample size, but the few longer records available indicated adjustment
only slightly different from that for the 50 year records.

Figure 3-4 Adjustment of mean and standard deviation of annual series for length
of record (Hershfield, 1961b)

3.2.4 Adjustment of Data for Fixed Observational Time Intervals

Rainfall data are usually published for fixed time intervals, e.g., 08:00-08:00
(daily), 06:00-12:00 (six-hourly), 03:00-04:00 (hourly). Such data rarely yield the
true maximum amounts for the indicated durations. For example, the annual
maximum observational-day amount is very likely to be appreciably less than the
annual maximum amount determined from intervals of 1440 consecutive minutes
unrestricted by any particular time. Similarly, maxima from fixed six-hourly and
hourly intervals tend to be less than maxima obtained from 360 and 60

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consecutive one-minute intervals, respectively, unrestricted by fixed beginning or

ending times.
Studies of thousands of station-years of rainfall data indicate that multiplying
annual maximum hourly or daily rainfall amounts for a single fixed observational
interval of one to 24 hours by 1.13 will yield values closely approximating those
to be obtained from an analysis of true maxima (Hershfield, 1961a). Lesser
adjustments are required when maximum observed amounts are determined
from two or more fixed observational intervals (Weiss, 1964; Miller, 1964). Thus,
for example, maximum six and 24-hour amounts determined from six and 24
consecutive fixed one-hour increments require adjustment by factors of only 1.02
and 1.01, respectively.

3.2.5 Transformation of Point PMP to Areal PMP

Design rainfall values like PMP are generally expressed in the form of point
rainfall intensity values which is the rainfall depth at a location. In order to obtain
areal average values for an area, hydrologists and engineers require techniques
whereby point rainfall amounts can be transformed to average rainfall amounts
over a specified area. This problem of point-to-area rainfall conversion can be
addressed using depth–area curves such as that of figure 3-5 which require the
use of areal reduction factors. The two types of areal reduction factors commonly
in use are Geographically Fixed and Storm Centered relationships (U.S. Weather
Bureau, 1957, 1958a, 1958b; Miller et al., 1973; Srikanthan, 1995).

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Figure 3-5 Depth area reduction curve

When the probable maximum precipitation is to be applied to an area larger than

about 25 km2, it should be reduced. No modification is considered necessary for
smaller areas.

3.3 Frequency Distribution and Analysis

3.3.1 Hydrologic Frequency Analysis

The primary objective of frequency analysis is to relate the magnitude of extreme

events to their frequency of occurrence through the use of probability distributions
(Chow et al., 1988). Data observed over an extended period of time in a river
system are analyzed in frequency analysis. The data are assumed to be
independent and identically distributed. The flood data are considered to be
stochastic and may even be assumed to be space and time independent. Further,
it is assumed that the floods have not been affected by natural or manmade
changes in the hydrological regime in the system. In practice, the true probability

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distribution of the data at a site or a region is unknown. The assumption that data
in a given system arise from a single-parent distribution may be questionable
when data from large watersheds are analyzed. In such cases, more than one
type of rainfall or flow may contribute to extreme events in a region. However,
for the analysis to be of practical use, simpler distributions are often used to
characterize the relation between flood magnitudes and their frequencies. The
performance of distributions is evaluated by using different statistical tests. Quite
often, many assumptions made in flood frequency analysis may be invalid. At any
rate these assumptions have been questioned and discussed extensively
(Kleme, l987a; Kleme , l987b; Yevjevich, 1968).
The distribution models which are recommended by WMO for annual maximum
data series (Cunnane, 1989) are listed below.
1. Normal distribution(NOR)
2. Two parameter Log-Normal distribution(LN2) (Hazen, 1914)
3. Three parameter Log Normal distribution(LN3)
4. Exponential distribution(EX)
5. Two parameter Gamma distribution(G2) (Moran, 1957)
6. Pearson three distribution (PIII) (Foster, 1924)
7. Log Pearson three distribution (LP3) (USWRC, 1967)
8. Generalized extreme value distribution(GEV) (Jenkinson, 1955)
9. Extreme value type one distribution (EVI)
10. Weibul distribution(W) (Wu & Goodridge, 1959)
11. The five parameter Wakeby distribution(WAK5) (Houghton, 1977)
12. The four parameter Wakeby distribution(WAK4) (Houghton, 1977)
13. The generalized Pareto distribution(GP)
14. Logistic Logistic distribution(LLg) (Ahmed et al, 1988)
15. Generalized Logistic distribution(GLg)
The mathematical forms of these distributions are presented in Appendix D

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3.3.2 Moments of Distributions

Moments about the origin or about the mean are used to characterize probability
distributions. Moments about the origin are the expected values of powers of a
random variable. In frequency analysis the two popular moments these are
conventional moments and L-moments.

3.3.2.1 Conventional Moments

For a given distribution, conventional moments can be expressed as functions
of the parameters of distributions. It follows that the higher order moments can
be expressed as functions of lower order moments. The method of moments has
been one of the simplest and conventional parameter estimation techniques used
in statistical hydrology. In this method, while fitting a probability distribution to a
sample, the parameters are estimated by equating the sample moments to those
of the theoretical moments of the distribution. Even though this method is
conceptually simple, and the computations are straight-forward, it is found that
the numerical values of the sample moments can be very different from those of
the population from which the sample has been drawn, especially when the
sample size is small and/or the skewness of the sample is considerable.

3.3.2.2 L-Moments
Recently, Hosking (1990) has defined L-moments, which are analogous to
conventional moments, and can be expressed in terms of linear combinations of
order statistics. Basically, L-moments are linear functions of probability weighted
moments (PWMs).
The following are advantage of L-moments Cunnane, (1989):
 Compared to method of moments, L-moments can characterize a wide
range of distributions
 Sample estimates of L-moments are so robust that they are not affected
by the presence of outlier in the dataset and are less subjected to bias in

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estimation L-moments yield more accurate estimates of the parameters of

a fitted distribution.
The following L-Moments are defined in (Cunnane, 1989):
λ1= L1 =M100
λ2= L2 =2M110 - M100
λ3= L3 =6M120 - 6M110 + M100
λ4= L4 =20M130 - 30M120 + 12M110 - M100
The 4 L-Moments (λ1, λ2, λ3, λ4) are all derived using the 4 PWMs. Other useful
ratios are L-CV (τ2), L-Skewness (τ3) and L-Kurtosis (τ4).
L-CV is similar to the normal coefficient of variation (CV). The standard equation
for CV = standard deviation/mean, and shows how the data set varies. The larger
the CV value, the larger the variation of the data set from the mean. For example,
in arid regions that receive few storm events, the variation will be large, as one
storm will deviate greatly from the low mean.
τ2 = L2/L1 (L-CV)
L-Skewness is a measure of the lack of symmetry in a distribution. If the value is
negative, the left tail is long compared with the right tail, and if the value is
positive, the right tail is longer.
For GEV frequency analysis, a positive L-Skewness value is desired, as we are
interested in the extreme events that occur in the right side tail of the distribution.
τ3 = L3/L2 (L-Skewness)
L-Kurtosis is difficult to interpret, however is often described as the measure of
“Peaked ness” of the distribution (Hosking, 1997). L-kurtosis is much less biased
than ordinary kurtosis.
τ4 = L4/L2 (L-Kurtosis)
Where, L1 = measure of location
τ2 = measure of scale and dispersion (LCv)
τ3 = measure of skewness (LCs)
τ4 = measure of kurtosis (LCk)

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3.3.3 Method of Parameter Estimation

Numerous parameter estimation procedures have been proposed and studied in
order to investigate their performance for various distributions (GUO, 1990). In
the past only the ordinary methods of moments (MOM) was mentioned for
parameter estimation. It should be noted that MOM, PWM and MLM are the most
efficient method of parameter estimation available which are discussed as follow:

3.3.3.1 Method of Moments (MOM)

It is one of the most commonly used methods of estimating parameters of a
probability distribution. The estimates of the parameters of a probability
distribution function are obtained by equating the moments of the sample with the
moments of the probability distribution function. It provides simple calculations,
but higher order moment estimates are biased (Wallis, et. al. 1974). Parameter
estimation by MOM is known to be biased and inefficient especially with three
parameter distributions. Method of moments (MOM) is a relatively easy
parameter estimation method. Unfortunately, MOM estimates are usually inferior
in quality and generally not as efficient as the ML estimates especially in the case
where the distributions have a large number of parameters. This is due to the fact
that higher order moments are more likely to be highly biased in relatively small
samples.

3.3.3.2 Method of Maximum Likelihood (MML)

The maximum likelihood method (MLM) is often regarded as the most efficient
method. This is because it provides the smallest sampling variance of the
estimated parameters which leads to the smallest sampling variance of the
estimated quantiles compared to other methods. MLM has disadvantages in
some particular cases, such as the Pearson type III distribution where the
optimality of the MLM is only asymptotic and small sample estimates may lead to
estimates of inferior quality (Bobée et al., 1993). Another disadvantage is that
MLM often gives biased estimates. However, these biased estimates can be

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corrected. Furthermore, MLM might be hard to compute especially if the number

of parameters is large. This will in turn make it hard and might also be impossible
to obtain ML estimates of small samples.
Estimation by the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method involves the choice of
parameter estimates that produce a maximum probability of occurrence of the
observations. The parameter estimates that maximize the likelihood function are
computed by partial differentiation with respect to each parameters and setting
these partial derivatives equal to zero and finally solve the resulting set of
equations simultaneously. The equations are usually complex that can only be
solved by numerical techniques. As a result of this difficulty, the solution set may
not properly found. (Rao & Hamed, 2000).

3.3.3.3 Method of Probability Weighted Moments (PWM)

The probability weighted moments (PWM) method (Greenwood et al., 1979;
Hosking, 1986) gives parameter estimates comparable to the ML estimates. In
fact, in some cases the estimation procedures are much less complex and thus
less complicated since the computations are simpler than that of ML estimates.
Landwehr et al., (1978) stated that the parameter estimates from small samples
using PWM are sometimes more accurate than the ML estimates.
Parameter estimates are obtained in this method, as in the case of MOM, by
equating moments of the distributions with the corresponding sample moments
of observed data. For a distribution with k parameters, the first k sample moments
are set equal to the corresponding population moments.
The resulting equations are then solved simultaneously for the unknown
parameters. Parameter estimation by PWM, which is relatively new, is as easy to
apply as ordinary moments (MOM), is usually unbiased and is almost as efficient
as ML. Indeed, in small samples PWM may be as efficient as ML. With a suitable
choice of distribution PWM estimation also contributes to robustness and is
attractive from that point of view. Another attraction of the PWM method is that it
can be easily used in regional estimation schemes. (Roa & Hamed, 2000).

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3.3.4 Selection of Parameters and Quantile Estimation

Parameters of the best fitted distributions are estimated based on the most
commonly used methods. These are:
 Method of moments (MoM)
 Method of maximum likelihood (ML)
 Method of probability weighted moments (PWM)
After which, quantile estimates (XT) corresponding to different return periods may
be computed. The relation between return period and the probability of non-
expedience (F) is given by
1
F  1 ……………………………………………………… [3.4]
T
Where; F=F(XT) is the probability of having a flood of magnitude XT or smaller.
The problem thus reduces to evaluating XT for a given value of F.Chow (1964)
proposed a general for calculating XT as follows.

X T  u1  KT  2 …………………………………….……….. [3.5]

Where; KT is the frequency factor which is a function of the return period and of
the parameters of the distribution u1 and  2 are the moments of the distribution

It is clear that a point estimate of a certain quantile corresponding to a return

period may be of no real significance unless there is an indication of the accuracy
of the estimate. A measure of the variability of the estimated value is the standard
error of estimate ST which is defined as (Cunnane, 1989)

ST    
E Xˆ T  E Xˆ T
2
………………………...………….…… [3.6]

The standard error of estimate accounts for the error due to small samples, but
not the error due to the choice of inappropriate distribution. The standard error of
estimate depends in general on the method of parameter estimation. The most
efficient method is that which gives the smallest standard error of estimate (Rao,
2000).

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4.0 DATA AVAILABLITY AND ANALYSIS

4.1 Rainfall Data Source

The in situ daily rainfall data was collected from national meteorological agency
(NMA) and from Reports of previous projects, which took their data mainly from
NMA. And the annual maximum of reanalysis data for 1 day, 2 day and 3 days
duration are taken from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
(ECMWF) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) from the
following link http://www.ecmwf.int/ and http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/service/grads-
gds/glads respectively. Additionally, the study used ECMWF with bias corrected
reanalysis data.

4.2 Data Availability

There are more than 173 stations in the UBNB which satisfies international
standards. Even though the number of stations reaches to the above mentioned
number, the distributions along the sub basins like Meteorological data are cluster
to some of the basin. Here in this paper 104 rainfall stations for 1-day duration
and for 2 & 3 days 93 stations are collected and analyzed. The basic information
for available stations are listed on Appendix A. and the annual maximum for 1
day, 2 & 3 days of the in-situ data prepared from the daily rainfall data and shown
in Appendix B (Table B1) Figure 4 -1 shows Distribution of rainfall stations over
Upper Blue Nail Basins.

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Figure 4 -1 Distribution of Rainfall stations over Upper Blue Nile Basins

The reanalysis data of ECMWF and GLADS prepared in center of grid box that
contains the available stations by the grid size of 0.5 by 0.5 degree of longitude
and latitude for ECMWF and 0.25 by 0.25 degree of longitude and latitude for
GLADS. The station distribution on the reanalysis grid box map for GLADS shown
on Figure 4 -2.

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Figure 4 -2 station distribution on 0.25-degree grid box of GLADS

The annual maximum of reanalysis data for 1 day, 2 & 3 days’ duration for the
available stations collected from nearest grid box by approximate the available
stations longitude and latitude with the grid box longitude and latitude. For all the
approximated longitude and latitude stations and the annual maximum reanalysis
data for both ECMWF and GLADS are shown in Appendix B (Table B2 and B3).

4.2.1 Gauge Stations for the Respective Sub Basin of UBNB

Table 4.1 shows the summary of Hydro-meteorological networks in the Upper Blue
Nile Basin. From table 4.1 one can understand that for sub basins Dinder do not
have any rainfall gauges. Sub Basins Rahad, Wonbera and Welaka have only one
station which have not a capacity to represent the sub basin. The data gathered

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from the available Rain gauged stations have also problem in recording, missing
data and operational case.

Table 4.1 Summary of meteorological networks in Upper Blue Nile Basin

Number of Rain
No. Sub-Basin
Gauges Stations
1 Anger 5
2 Belles 2
3 Beshilo 7
4 Dabus 5
5 Dinder 0
6 Didessa 28
7 Fincha 2
8 Guder 3
9 Jemma 8
10 Muger 3
11 North Gojjam 11
12 Rahad 1
13 South Gojjam 8
14 Tana 19
15 Welaka 1
16 Wonbera 1
Total 104

4.3 Data Quality Control

In order to get good results, the qualities of the data should be investigated
though different methods of checking. Under flood frequency analysis the
following tests, are commonly used, such are test for Outliers, homogeneity, and
independence of data which are discussed by Bobee and Ashkar (1991).

4.3.1 Checking of Reanalysis Precipitation Product with the In-Situ Data

4.3.1.1 Using t mean test

One side t mean hypothesis test is used to compered the reanalysis products
(ECMWF, ECMWF bias corrected and GLADS) with the in-situ data. the
computed t value at standard significance (α) 0.05 for 1-day duration shows the

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reanalysis products for ECMWF fitted 61 number of stations, ECMWF bias

corrected fitted 7 number of stations and GLADS fitted 15 number of stations.

4.3.1.2 Using the scatter graph and R2 Value

The scatter graph developed by considering all the stations data’s as a single
data for both in situ and reanalysis product. the scatter graph for 1-day duration
are:

In situ Vs ECMWF of 1-Day Annual Maximum rainfall Data

250.0
Annual Maximum Rainfall

In situ
200.0
ECMWF

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Number of Series

Figure 4-3 the scatter graph In-situ with ECMWF Product.

in Situ Vs ECMWF bias Corrected for 1-day annual maximum
Raifall Data
250.0 In Situ

ECMWF bias
Annual Maximum Rainfall

200.0
Corrected

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Number of Series

Figure 4-4 the scatter graph In-situ with ECMWF bias Corrected Product.

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in situ Vs GLADS for 1-day Annual Maximum Rainfall Data

400.0
350.0 in situ
Annual Maximum Rainfall

300.0 GLADS
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Number of Series

Figure 4-5 the scatter graph In-situ with GLADS Product.

As a basin figure 4-3,4-4 & 4-5 shows for a 1-day duration ECMWF product
averagely represent the in-situ data rather than ECMWF bias corrected & GLADS
products, and with respect to in-situ data the ECMWF bias corrected product is
too much low and GLADS product is high. Using the linear scatter relation of in-
situ with reanalysis product the R2 value for ECMWF, ECMWF bias corrected and
GLADS products are 0.0124, 0.0011 & 0.0002 respectively. This value shows the
daily annual maximum of reanalysis products are not representing the in-situ daily
annual maximum data.

4.3.2 Testing for Outliers

An outlier is an observation that deviates significantly from the bulk of the data,
which may be due to errors in data collection, or recording, or due to natural
causes. The presence of outliers in the data causes difficulties when fitting a
distribution to the data. Low and high outliers are both possible and have different
effects on the analysis.
The Grubbs and Beck (1972) test (G-B) may be used to detect outliers. In this
test the quantities XH and XL are analyzed using the following equations.

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X H  exp( X  K NS ).........................................................[4.1]
X L  exp( X  K NS )

Where : X and S are the mean and standard deviations of the logarithm of the
annual rainfall peaks, respectively, and Kn , is detected and Kn , is the G-B
statistic tabulated for various sample sizes and significant levels by Grubbs and
Beck(1972). At 10% significant level, the following approximation proposed by
Pilon et al.(1985) is used.

K N   3.62201 6.28446N 1/ 4  2.49835N 1/ 2  0.49146N 3 / 4  0.037911N ........................[4.2]

Where N is the sample size

The result of the outliers’ test for ECMWF with bias Corrected 3-day duration of
rainfall depths for Wegel Tena Station indicated in Table 4-2

Table 4-2 Outliers Test for Wegel Tena Station

Outlier test of Wegel Tena Station for 3-days of ECMWF with bias
Corrected data

Mean STDEV Limiting Value Data Range

Upper (XH) Lower (XL) Max Min
2.568 0.313 150.178 30.172 247.100 45.787

The extreme rainfall events not necessarily bounded by these limits but these
test will help to sort out the exaturated values from the series that might be due
to reading error or other errors.

4.3.3 Test for Independence

It is usually assumed that all the peak magnitudes in the AM series are mutually
Independent in the statistical sense. This assumption is usually justified. A

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hydrologic time series is stationery if it is free of trends, shifts or periodicity

(cyclicity) which implies that the statistical parameters of the series, such as the
mean, variance, and autocorrelation structure do not change over time
(Maidment, 1993).
The statistical analysis for dependence is carried out for all the 1-day durations
of in-situ rainfall record with in each station. A FORTRAN program is used for the
analysis based on Wald –Wolfowitz (W –W) test. Out of the analyzed data for
annual maximum rainfall series of one-day duration of in-situ data, 9 stations
were found to be dependent using W-W test. The summarized results and criteria
for dependency are shown in Appendix C.

4.3.4 Homogeneity Test for the Data Series

The use of a longer series in the estimation of PMP is appropriate only if they
show no significant increasing or decreasing trends.
The presence or absence of trends in the annual maximum rainfall series for the
104 rainfall stations used were investigated using the Mann-Kendall rank
statistics test (WMO, 1966).
In this test two samples of size p and q with p ≤ q are compared. The combined
data set of size N = p + q is ranked in increasing order. The Mann-Whitney (1947)
(M-W) test considers the quantities V and W in Equation. 4.3 and 4.4.
(𝑝(𝑝+1))
𝑉=𝑅− ……………..……………………...... [4.3]
2
W = pq - V ……………….……...………….…………….… [4.4]
R is the sum of the ranks of the elements of the first sample (size p) in the
combined series (size N), and V and W are calculated from R, p, and q. V
represents the number of times an item in sample 1 follows an item in sample 2
in the ranking. Similarly, W can be computed for sample 2 following sample 1.
The M-W Statistic U is defined by the smaller of V and W. When N > 20 and p, q
> 3, and under the null hypothesis that the two samples came from the same

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𝑝+𝑞
population, U is approximately normally distributed with mean Umean = and
2

variance var (U),

𝑝𝑞 𝑁3 − 𝑁
Var (U) = [𝑁(𝑁−1)] [ 12 − ∑ 𝑇]…………………………..…..[4.5]

where T= J3 - J /12 and J is the number of observations tied at a given rank. T is

summed over all groups of tied observations in both samples of size p and q. The
statistic u=(𝑈 − 𝑈𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 )⁄[𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑈)]1⁄2 is used to test the hypothesis of
homogeneity at significance level α by comparing it with the standard normal
variate for that significance level.
For no trend in the data series, this value should lie within the limits of ± 1.96 at
the 5% level of significance. The test by Mann-Kendall showed that no significant
trend in the annual maximum rainfall values exists at all of stations. Hence, the
annual maximum rainfall series for all the stations are treated as homogeneous
for subsequent calculation.
Table 4-3: Homogeneity test result of Wegel Tena station for 1-day in-situ data

Mann-kendall’s rank statistics test result (WMO 1966) Remarks

Station name Wegel Tena

Sample Size 31
Sample1 (p) 15
Sample 2 (q) 16
Number of Observation tied (J) 4
Sum of the tied 5
Var (U) 638.710 using equation(3.5)
Standard test result for 5% significant
0.594 <1.96
level (u)

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As shown in the table 4-3 the standard test for Wegel Tena station for 5%
significant level was found to be less than 1.96 therefore no significant trend in
the annual maximum rainfall values exist. Hence, the annual maximum rainfall
series for the station is treated as homogeneous for subsequent calculation.
For all the rest of stations shown in Appendix C.

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5.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

5.1 The Rainfall Frequency Analysis

Previously a criterion used for the dam crest level and the emergency spillway
dimension designs were the 10,000 years return period floods. In order to
compare some of the present study results a 1day, 2 and 3 days PMPs with the
10,000 years return period rainfall events this procedure is required.

Rainfall frequency analysis is a methodology which comprises data preparation,

selection of frequency distribution, method of parameter estimation and
computing rainfall quantiles for different durations.

5.1.1 Selection and Evaluation of Parent Distributions for the Rainfall Data

Frequency distributions can be described by their moments. The two most

commonly used moment ratio diagrams: The Conventional Moment Ratio
Diagram (MRD) and the L-moment Ratio diagram (LMRD) which are used to
select the parent distribution of a particular station which helps for the estimation
of the rainfall events of different recurrence intervals using different parameter
estimation methods.
Figure 5-1 and Figure 5-2 indicates the graph of MRD and L-MRD and the
candidate distributions for in-situ 1-day duration annual maximum rainfall at
Finoteselam station. The same analysis could be applied to fit the best
distribution to each station data.

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Cs-Ck MRD for in- situ 1-Day duration at finoteselam Station

40 GEV

35 Log Normal
(Ck) Kurtosis Coefficent

30 Pearson III

25 EV1

20 Normal
15
Station
10
Weibull
5
Exponentia
0 l
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
(Cs) Skewness Coefficent

Figure 5-1: MRD for 1-day in-situ rainfall depth at Finoteselam station

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L-Cs-L-Ck L- MRD for in-situ 1-day duration at Finoteselam Station

1.2
GEV

1 LN

P3
0.8
EV 1
L-CK

0.6
NOR

0.4 Sation

Exponential
0.2
G.Logistic
0
G.Pareto
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
-0.2
L-Cs

Figure 5-2: L-MRD for 1-day in-situ rainfall depth at Finoteselam station

As Figure 5-1 and 5-2 shown the candidate distribution for in-situ 1-day duration
at Finoteselam station. The summarized distributions are shown in Table 4-1
below.

Table 5 -1: Candidate distributions for Finoteselam station

Candidate distributions for 1-day in-situ data of Finoteselam Stations

Candidate Candidate
Conventional Moments Average L-Moments
distributions distributions
Xmean Cv Cs Ck t t3 t4

50.336 0.191 0.095 3.809 NOR/GEV/LN(3) 0.124 0.022 0.259 NOR/ PIII/ GL

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As table 5-1 shown the normal distribution selected as best candidate

distributions for finoteselam station.

5.1.2 Parameters Selection and Quantile Estimation

Using standard error of estimate (SEE) were selected the fitted Parameter
estimation method and then computed the quantile estimates (XT) corresponding
to different return periods. The standard error of estimate (SEE) for annual
maximum rainfall of In-situ 1-day duration in the different return periods for
Finoteselam station are shown in tables 5-2.

Table 5-2 Standard Error of different parameter estimation Methods for the best
fitted distributions

Method of Standard Errors of Estimates for the indicated return periods in years
Parameter
2 10 20 50 100 200 500 1000 10000
estimation
NOR/MOM 1.3881089 1.87338879 2.129452 2.447896 2.672593 2.884628 3.147948 3.335988 3.905484
NOR/MLM 1.3881089 1.87338879 2.129452 2.447896 2.672593 2.884628 3.147948 3.335988 3.905484
NOR/PWM 1.596481 2.16555945 2.464972 2.836856 3.099042 3.34633 3.653301 3.872444 4.535873

Quantiles of different return periods were estimated using the parameters with
smallest standard error of estimate for the best fitted distributions. The best fitted
candidate distributions of in-situ 1-day rainfall durations and the method of
parameters and quantiles estimator for all stations in the basin are shown in table
5-3.

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Table 5-3 Best Fitted distributions and method of parameter estimation

Best Fitted distributions and method of parameter estimation for the in situ 1-Day durations
Fitted Fitted Fitted
Station Name Station Name Station Name
distributions distributions distributions
Abasina Joger P III/PWM Debre Markos P III/MOM Lemi P III/PWM
Abay Sheleko EV I/PWM Debre Tabor GEV/PWM Limu Genet P III/PWM
Abdela P III/MOM Debre Work GEV/PWM Maligawa GEV/PWM
Adet P III/PWM Dedessa P III/PWM Mehal Meda (RS) P III/MOM
Agaro NOR/PWM Dedessa river P III/MOM Mekne selam GEV/MOM
Alem Ketema GEV/PWM Dejen GEV/PWM Mendi P III/MOM
Alibo LN/MOM Deke Istifanos P III/MOM Merawi P III/PWM
Amba mariam GEV/MOM Dembecha P III/PWM Merto Lemariam P III/PWM
Ambagiorgis Sch P III/MOM Dengoro P III/MOM Meshenti EV I/PWM
Ambo Agriculture LN/MOM Derba P III/MOM Metema GEV/PWM
Ambo Met P III/PWM Dimtu GEV/PWM Motta EV I/PWM
Angerguten P III/MOM Enango EV I/PWM Mukelemi LN/MOM
Arbgebeya EV I/PWM Enjabara P III/PWM Muletadiga P III/MOM
Arjo GEV/PWM Felege Berhan P III/PWM Nefas mewucha GEV/MOM
Assosa GEV/PWM Feres Bet GEV/PWM Nekemte P III/MOM
Atnago P III/PWM Fiche GEV/PWM Neshi NOR/PWM
Ayehu GEV/PWM Filiklik GEV/PWM Nolekaba EV I/PWM
Aykel EV I/PWM Finoteselam NOR/MOM Pawe P III/MOM
Baco EV I/PWM Gatira LN/MOM Serbo GEV/PWM
Bahir Dar (Airport) P III/PWM Gebre guracha P III/MOM Shambu LN/PWM
Bahir Dar New NOR/PWM Gembe P III/MOM Shola Gebeya P III/MOM
Bambase P III/MOM Gidayana NOR/PWM Sibusire LN/MOM
Baro (Yaya-Hurum) P III/PWM Gimijabet Mariam GEV/PWM Sirinka GEV/PWM
Bedele GEV/PWM Gohatsion GEV/PWM Tillili EV I/PWM
Bullen GEV/PWM Gondar P III/PWM Tis_Abay EV I/PWM
Chagni P III/MOM Gondar A.P. P III/MOM Wegel Tena GEV/PWM
Chewahit P III/MOM Gorgora EV I/PWM Werejiru GEV/MOM
Chira EV I/PWM Gundo Woin LN/MOM Wereta (Add) GEV/PWM
Chora P III/PWM haike GEV/PWM Wetet Abay P III/MOM
Combolcha NOR/MOM Hamusit GEV/PWM Yanfa P III/MOM
Dangila GEV/PWM Jeldu P III/MOM Yejubie P III/MOM
Debark P III/MOM Jimma P III/PWM Yetemen P III/PWM
Debena P III/PWM Kachis e(Rs) P III/MOM Yetnora P III/PWM
Debre Berhan GEV/PWM Kelem Meda EV I/PWM Zege P III/PWM
Debre Elias GEV/MOM Kone GEV/PWM

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As the Table 5-3 shown for the in-situ 1-day duration the candidate distribution of
the majority stations in the study area were General Extreme Value (GEV) and
Pearson(III).

Among various frequency distributions, the generalized extreme value (GEV)

theory has been recently applied in hydrological studies by many researchers, to
determine extreme rainfall values associated with large return periods
(Koutsoyiannis,1999, 2004; Lee and Maeng,2003; Haktanir,2004; Michele and
Salvadori, 2005). Based on this recommendation and the fitted distribution as
shown on Table 5-3 the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is used for
both 2 & 3 days’ in-situ and 1 day, 2 & 3 days’ reanalysis precipitation product to
estimating quantiles of different durations.

Table 5-4 Estimated Quantiles of different durations for finoteselam station

Estimated Quantiles for the indicated

Return
durations of in-situ rainfall, mm at
Period
Finoteselam station
(years)
1-day 2-days 3-days
2 50.336 73.634 87.980
10 62.662 85.278 108.626
20 66.158 88.617 116.474
50 70.091 92.235 126.598
100 72.713 94.507 134.160
200 75.112 96.454 141.674
500 78.019 98.613 151.555
1000 80.058 99.984 158.998
10000 86.103 103.306 183.564

Estimated Quantiles of different durations for in-situ, ECMWF, bias Corrected

ECMWF, GLADS of 1 day, 2 & 3 days’ duration are shown in Appendix E.

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5.2 Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)

In view of the mentioned problems in the methodology part and recent research
outputs, the Hershfield’s chart might not give reliable frequency factor estimates
world over. It was therefore felt that an appropriate Km value based on in-situ and
reanalysis product of particular study area would give better estimates of PMP
than Hershfield’s chart.

5.2.1 Determination of Frequency Factor (K) Values Using Hershfield’s

Frequency Equation for UBNB

Following the same procedure explained in section three and using the statistical
values of the stations in the basin the frequency factor K for each rainfall station
was computed by using equation 3.2.

Table 5-5 shows the k value for in-situ 1-day duration at finoteselam station.

Rainfall depths(Xn) Rainfall depths (Xn-1)

Year of 1-day duration in in mm Excluding the
mm 70 mm Rainfall depth

1993 54 54
1994 43.8 43.8
1995 53 53
1996 40 40
1997 34.7 34.7
2006 49.7 49.7
2007 36 36
2008 59.7 59.7
2009 70
2010 58.5 58.5
2011 53.4 53.4
2012 50.6 50.6
2014 54.6 54.6
2015 46.7 46.7

Max (X1) 70
mean of Xn-1 (mm) 48.823
St Dev of Xn-1 (mm) 8.093
Frequency factor (K) 2.617

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The distribution of K values for the 104 rainfall stations of in-situ 1-day duration
are given below.

Table 5-6 The frequency factor K values for in-situ 1-day duration of the
meteorological stations in the Upper Blue Nile Basin

Station Name K Station Name K Station Name K

Abasina Joger 1.757 Debre Markos 10.555 Lemi 2.715
Abay Sheleko 2.429 Debre Tabor 4.533 Limu Genet 2.586
Abdela 4.987 Debre Work 3.502 Maligawa 2.705
Adet 2.357 Dedessa 2.747 Mehal Meda (RS) 2.708
Agaro 8.314 Dedessa river 2.489 Mekne selam 2.799
Alem Ketema 3.348 Dejen 3.211 Mendi 4.005
Alibo 3.424 Deke Istifanos 6.174 Merawi 2.028
Amba mariam 2.011 Dembecha 3.128 Merto Lemariam 2.403
Ambagiorgis Sch 4.301 Dengoro 3.362 Meshenti 2.487
Ambo Agriculture 4.336 Derba 2.977 Metema 4.609
Ambo Met 2.632 Dimtu 2.716 Motta 2.531
Angerguten 7.755 Enango 3.431 Mukelemi 4.115
Arbgebeya 2.253 Enjabara 2.634 Muletadiga 3.952
Arjo 4.042 Felege Berhan 3.429 Nefas mewucha 4.811
Assosa 2.464 Feres Bet 2.092 Nekemte 3.036
Atnago 3.093 Fiche 3.037 Neshi 2.170
Ayehu 3.480 Filiklik 3.364 Nolekaba 2.438
Aykel 4.010 Finoteselam 2.617 Pawe 3.938
Baco 3.210 Gatira 3.307 Serbo 3.357
Bahir Dar (Airport) 1.646 Gebre guracha 1.160 Shambu 3.357
Bahir Dar New 1.786 Gembe 6.230 Shola Gebeya 1.763
Bambase 4.682 Gidayana 1.913 Sibusire 2.661
Baro (Yaya-Hurum) 2.168 Gimijabet Mariam 4.750 Sirinka 2.708
Bedele 4.796 Gohatsion 2.744 Tillili 4.087
Bullen 4.352 Gondar 2.696 Tis_Abay 2.344
Chagni 9.851 Gondar A.P. 3.115 Wegel Tena 5.956
Chewahit 3.590 Gorgora 2.826 Werejiru 3.350
Chira 2.153 Gundo Woin 4.908 Wereta (Add) 2.213
Chora 2.168 haike 3.616 Wetet Abay 6.435
Combolcha 2.546 Hamusit 3.921 Yanfa 2.700
Dangila 2.827 Jeldu 2.727 Yejubie 5.457
Debark 2.834 Jimma 2.376 Yetemen 3.946
Debena 4.865 Kachis e(Rs) 7.248 Yetnora 2.395
Debre Berhan 4.184 Kelem Meda 2.293 Zege 4.172
Debre Elias 3.532 Kone 2.763

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As shown in Table 5-6. most of the K values for 1-day duration were less than
5.0. Only Ten values were in the range between 5 and 11 with the latter being
the highest one. Thus, the highest value of (Km) for the in-situ 1-day duration was
found to be 10.555 or approximately 11 in the study area which is the required
frequency factor of the study area for the in-situ 1-day annual maxima series.
For durations of 2 and 3 days of the in situ data the frequency factors Km values
are found to be 8.326 and 9.002 respectively. The K values of ECMWF, bias
Corrected ECMWF, GLADS of 1 day, 2 & 3 days’ duration and in-situ data 2 & 3
days’ durations are shown in Appendix F. The table 5-7 shows the number of
stations which occurred in the given k value range for 1-day duration of both in-
situ and reanalysis products

Table 5-7 Number of stations for the given k value range for a 1-day duration of
UBNB

Number of Stations for the computed K

value
Data Source k <3 3-5 5-9 k >9 k<5
In situ 49 45 8 2 94
ECMWF 40 41 23 0 81
ECMWF bias corrected 25 53 24 2 78
GLADS 48 43 13 0 91

As shown in table 5-7 the frequency factor (k) value of most of stations of 1-day
duration for both in-situ and reanalysis product are less than 5. This shows the
frequency factor (k) value of reanalysis products under UBNB are adequately
captured the in-situ frequency factor (k) value. Particularly, the k value for the
number stations which are less than 5 for GLADS product and in-situ data are
nearly the same.

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5.2.2 Evaluating the Frequency factor (K) Values of the reanalysis

products for a sub basin of UBNB

The table 5-8 shows the number of stations which occurred in the given k value
range for 1-day duration of both in-situ and reanalysis products for a sub basin
of UBNB.
Table 5-8 Number of stations for the given k value range for a sub basin of
UBNB
No. of Stations for the following K value Captured
Range Reanalysis
Sub Product
Data Source <3 (3 - 5) (5-9) >9 <5
Basin. for k<5
in situ 1 3 1 0 4
ECMWF 0 5 0 0 5
Anger All
ECMWF Corr. 2 3 0 0 5
GLADS 3 2 0 0 5
in situ 0 1 0 0 1
ECMWF 1 0 1 0 1
Belles ECMWF
ECMWF Corr. 0 0 2 0 0
GLADS 2 0 0 0 2
in situ 4 3 0 0 7
ECMWF 2 0 5 0 2
Beshilo GLADS
ECMWF Corr. 2 0 5 0 2
GLADS 3 4 0 0 7
in situ 1 4 0 0 5
ECMWF 3 2 0 0 5 ECMWF &
Dabus
ECMWF Corr. 0 0 3 2 0 GLADS
GLADS 0 5 0 0 5
in situ 15 11 2 0 26
ECMWF 3 25 0 0 28
Didessa All
ECMWF Corr. 3 25 0 0 28
GLADS 19 9 0 0 28
in situ 1 1 0 0 2
ECMWF 1 1 0 0 2
Fincha All
ECMWF Corr. 1 1 0 0 2
GLADS 2 0 0 0 2
in situ 1 1 1 0 2
ECMWF 0 2 1 0 2
Guder ECMWF
ECMWF Corr. 2 1 0 0 3
GLADS 0 3 0 0 3

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No. of Stations for the following K value Range Captured

Sub Reanalysis
Data Source <3 (3 - 5) (5-9) >9 <5 Product
Basin.
in situ 4 4 0 0 8
ECMWF 6 1 1 0 7
Jemma GLADS
ECMWF Corr. 4 3 1 0 7
GLADS 5 3 0 0 8
in situ 3 0 0 0 3
GLADS &
ECMWF 1 0 2 0 1
Muger ECMWF
ECMWF Corr. 1 2 0 0 3
Corr.
GLADS 2 1 0 0 3
in situ 6 5 0 0 11
ECMWF &
North ECMWF 11 0 0 0 11
ECMWF
Gojjam ECMWF Corr. 3 8 0 0 11
Corr.
GLADS 1 3 7 0 4
in situ 0 1 0 0 1
ECMWF 1 0 0 0 1 GLADS &
Rahad
ECMWF Corr. 0 0 1 0 0 ECMWF
GLADS 0 1 0 0 1
in situ 2 3 1 2 5
South ECMWF 3 3 2 0 6 ECMWF
GoJjam ECMWF Corr. 3 2 3 0 5 Corr.
GLADS 5 2 1 0 7
in situ 10 7 2 0 17
ECMWF 8 2 9 0 10
Tana GLADS
ECMWF Corr. 4 8 7 0 12
GLADS 5 9 5 0 14
in situ 1 0 0 0 1
ECMWF 0 0 1 0 0
Welaka GLADS
ECMWF Corr. 0 0 1 0 0
GLADS 0 1 0 0 1
in situ 0 1 0 0 1
ECMWF 0 0 1 0 0
Wonbera GLADS
ECMWF Corr. 0 0 1 0 0
GLADS 1 0 0 0 1
As table 5-8 shown the of number of stations k values in a sub basin are less
than 5 and compered the k value of a sub basin of reanalysis product result with
the in-situ result. for ECMWF, ECMWF bias corrected and GLADS products are
captured by 10, 7 & 6 number of sub basin respectively. This shows as a sub
basin of UBNB GLADS product is adequately captured the k value range with
respect to in-situ result.

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5.2.3 Computed Maximum Frequency Factor (Km) Values Using Hershfield’s Frequency Equation for a
Sub Basin of UBNB.

Table 5-9 Frequency factor (Km) Values for a sub basin of UBNB using Hershfield’s Frequency Equation.

km-Value Using Hershfield's Frequency Equation for a Sub Basin of UBNB

1-day 2-day 3-day
ECMWF bias ECMWF bias In- ECMWF bias
Sub Basin In-situ ECMWF GLADS In-situ ECMWF GLADS ECMWF GLADS
Corrected Corrected situ Corrected
Anger 7.755 4.186 4.071 3.370 4.399 4.572 4.451 3.329 3.003 3.750 5.634 3.973
Belles 4.352 5.075 7.627 2.361 7.574 4.353 6.449 2.745 6.127 2.918 6.953 3.300
Beshilo 5.956 6.067 7.926 4.251 2.626 5.378 9.577 4.070 2.438 6.205 10.762 3.229
Dabus 4.682 3.052 9.187 4.956 4.852 2.750 8.859 3.073 4.554 3.286 7.201 4.565
Didessa 8.314 4.324 4.141 3.845 6.480 4.721 3.683 4.295 5.357 5.064 3.344 5.113
Fincha 3.357 3.466 3.085 2.309 4.103 3.362 2.341 2.963 2.825 2.391 2.733 2.173
Guder 7.248 5.046 3.186 3.210 6.187 4.117 3.535 3.092 9.002 3.884 4.073 2.392
Jemma 4.184 7.998 6.670 3.715 3.959 6.138 7.550 4.261 4.875 5.857 5.540 3.833
Muger 2.977 5.834 3.935 3.003 2.696 4.713 3.415 3.981 2.796 4.102 4.073 3.232
North Gojjam 4.908 2.953 3.301 6.558 6.706 3.429 3.672 5.771 8.187 3.753 4.080 6.008
Rahad 4.609 2.861 6.622 3.267 4.287 2.826 4.263 4.813 2.851 2.670 2.816 3.214
South Gojam 10.555 5.059 5.700 5.273 8.326 2.866 4.405 3.246 7.979 3.624 3.958 3.760
Tana 6.435 8.008 6.187 5.850 7.397 8.523 7.160 5.771 6.876 8.432 6.379 6.008
Welaka 2.799 5.691 7.926 4.410 6.141 2.389 2.993 3.003 6.533 3.624 3.958 2.958
Wonbera 4.087 5.059 5.700 2.870
According to table 5-8 result, the Km of value for a sub basin of the reanalysis product are not adequately
captured Km value of the respective sub basin of the in situ data.

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5.2.4 Determination of Frequency Factor (K) Values Using Hershfield’s

Chart.

A sample station was taken and the Hershfield’s chart was used to determine the
frequency factor. Since the mean of the annual maximum rainfall series at
finoteselam station for in-situ 1-day duration is 50.3 mm, the frequency factor
corresponding to the mean from Figure 3-1 (Hershfield’s chart) is 17.28.
Using Hershfield’s Chart the maximum frequency factors (Km) of 1-day duration
for in-situ, ECMWF, ECMWF bias corrected and GLADS are 18.20,17.88,18.393
& 16.910 respectively.

5.2.5 Comparison of the frequency factor (K) Values using Hershfield’s

frequency equation and Hershfield’s Chart.

Generally, the means for the majority of stations in the study area for the indicated
duration is found to be less than 100 mm; therefore, there corresponding
frequency factors from the chart ranges from 15 to18 which is more than twice of
the estimated Km in the above mentioned procedure.
As mentioned in section 5.2.1 the frequency factor embedded in equation 3-2
obtained from the analysis result is 11 for in-situ day duration but using
Hershfield’s chart this value extends up to 18 so before using this result for further
analysis is used for tray to find the inherent causes for under estimation.
One reason of underestimation could be the parent probability distribution of the
extreme rainfall series for Ethiopia may be far from the frequency equation given
by Hershfield. The frequency equation is standardized in the form of Normal
probability type of quantile estimator with mean ( X n) and Standard deviation (σn)
the difference which takes care of the distribution difference is the frequency
factor Km. But any distribution can be converted to the frequency equation using
the frequency factor Km.
Based on the moment and L-moment ratio diagrams described in previous
section the candidate distribution for the majority of the stations in the study area

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were General Extreme Value (GEV) and Pearson(III). Therefore, frequency factor
estimated for some of the above distributions to check whether it is closer to the
chart’s value or the analysis result.
The relationship between the frequency factor, K and return period, T for different
distributions are described by chow (chow, 1953). Taking Pearson (III)
distribution as example because, it is found to be a candidate distribution for
majority of stations in the study area.
The frequency factor for Pearson (III) distribution expressed as follows in terms
of u (standard variate) and Cs (coefficient of skewness).
3
 2   Cs    Cs   
Kmp    *   * U      1  1
 Cs   6    6  
Where U is a standard variate which is a function of return period T
C o  C1W  C 2W 2
u W    ( p)
1  d1W  d 2W 2  d 3W 3
Where:

W   2 ln( p ) for p  0.5

p  1 F
p  1  p for p  0.5
Co, C1, C2, d1, d2, d3 are constants and  ( p) is the error term
The following table shows the frequency factor for the stations in the basin fitting
Pearson (III) distribution for 107 years’ recurrence interval.

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Table 5-10: Frequency Factors for some of the stations in the basin having
statistical values fitting Pearson (III) distribution.
Coefficient Stati Coefficient
Frequency Frequency
Station of of
Station Name factor on Station Name factor
No. skewness
(kmp).
skewness
(kmp)
(Cs) No. (Cs)
1 Abasina Joger -0.134 4.637 60 Gondar 0.281 6.497
4 Adet 0.739 8.913 61 Gondar A.P. 0.977 10.293
11 Ambo Met 0.844 9.513 66 Jeldu 0.322 6.697
16 Atnago 0.56 7.926 67 Jimma 0.225 6.226
20 Bahir Dar (Airport) 0.255 6.368 71 Lemi 0.53 7.763
23 Baro (Yaya-Hurum) 0.2 6.107 72 Limu Genet 0.612 8.205
29 Chora 0.2 6.107 74 Mehal Meda (RS) 0.288 6.528
39 Dedessa 0.473 7.468 77 Merawi 0.48 7.504
40 Dedessa river 0.374 6.956 78 Merto Lemariam 0.38 6.989
48 Enjabara 0.445 7.322 85 Nekemte 0.931 10.024
49 Felege Berhan 0.929 10.01 100 Yanfa 0.758 9.019
55 Gebre guracha -1.514 1.391 103 Yetnora 0.507 7.642

The highest value of (Km) for the in-situ 1-day duration obtained in the previous
section was 11 which also correspond to about 10 7 years of return period as
shown in the above tables. But, the estimates of PMP calculated for stations by
practitioners in Ethiopia so far using Hershfield’s chart (i.e. Km around15) which
corresponds to 1011 years return period are very much impractical and beyond
the NRC range (100,000-109years). It was therefore considered that the use of
Km =11 for this study area would give a reasonable estimates of the 1-day PMP
rather than using the chart.

5.2.6 Estimation of PMP Using Hershfield’s Frequency Equation for the

Upper Blue Nile Basin

The point probable maximum precipitation for different stations in the study area
were estimated based on the Hershfield’s frequency equation using the
frequency factor Km values mentioned in the previous section. The PMP value
at Finoteselam station for in situ 1-day duration shown in table 5-11 is taken as a
sample to show the procedures of PMP estimation. The estimated PMP values

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of all the in situ and reanalysis data for 1 day, 2 & 3 days’ durations are shown in
Appendix F

Table 5-11 Procedure for PMP estimation at Finoteselam station for in-situ 1-day
durations

No Descriptions Symbol Values Remarks

10.717N,37.05E
1 Station Name Finoteselam
and 1840 m Alt.
2 Sample Size N 14
3 Mean(mm) Xn 50.3357
4 Standard Deviation(mm) σn 9.6171
Mean after Excluding the
5 maximum rainfall depth from the Xn-1 48.8231
series(mm)
Standard deviation after Excluding
6 the maximum rainfall depth from σn-1 8.09281
the series(mm)
7 The ratio of 5 and 3 Xn-1/Xn 0.96995
8 The ratio of 6 and 4 σn-1/σn 0.8415
Adjustment of mean for the
9 maximum observed series (see From fig(2.2), 1.0304
section 2)
Adjustment of mean for length of
10 From fig (2.4) 1.036
record (see section 2) After
Adjustment of standard deviation Hershfield,1961,b
11 for the maximum observed series From fig(2.3) 0.98667
(see section 2)
Adjustment of standard deviation
12 From fig(2.4) 1.147
for length of record
13 Adjusted mean(mm) adj. mean 53.7331
14 Adjusted stdev(mm) adj.stdev 10.8837
15 Frequency factor km 11 See section 5.2
1-day probable maximum
16 1-day PMP 173.454
precipitation(mm)
24 hrs probable maximum 1.13*daily After
17 196.003
precipitation(mm) PMP Hershfield,1961,b

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As shown in the table 5-11 the in-situ 1-day PMP at Finoteselam station is 196
mm. Different adjustments like adjustment for record length were made for
different stations in the basin for different durations. The figures in Section Three
were used for the analysis (After Hershfield, 1961, b)

The Table 5-12 show below the computed Km and PMP value using Hershfield,
equation for both in-situ and reanalysis data for different duration in the study
area.

Table 5-12 Km and PMP Result for In-Situ and Reanalysis Data
Duration
1-Day 2-Day 3-Day
Data Source Km PMP (mm) Km PMP (mm) Km PMP (mm)
In situ 10.555 521.00 8.326 659.984 9.002 874.468
ECMWF 8.008 339.413 8.523 423.087 8.432 408.025
ECMWF with bias corrected 9.187 268.427 9.577 292.095 10.762 319.257
GLADS 6.558 586.421 5.771 661.883 6.008 713.064
Maximum of K & PMP 10.555 586.421 9.577 661.883 10.762 874.468

As shown Table 5-12 for both in-situ and reanalysis data for 1 day, 2 & 3 days
the Km and PMP (mm) value not more than 11 and 875 respectively for UBNB.
the table also shows GLADS precipitation product adequately capture PMP with
respective to the in situ PMP result, and both ECMWF & ECMWF bias corrected
reanalysis products are inadequate to capture PMP for this study area so, it
needs major data improvement technique. However, the maximum frequency
factor (Km) value computed from ECMWF & ECMWF bias corrected products are
adequately captured the in situ maximum frequency factor (Km) within the
percent of variation range between 2 & 15.
The estimated PMP value for a sub basin of UBNB shown in the table 5-13

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Table 5-13 PMP Values for a sub basin of UBNB using Hershfield’s Frequency
Equation.

PMP (mm) Value Using Hershfield's Frequency Equation

Present of Deviation
for A Sub Basin of UBNB for 1-Day Duration
ECMWF bias ECMWF bias
Sub Basin In-situ ECMWF GLADS ECMWF GLADS
Corrected Corrected
Anger 288.010 159.879 94.760 221.822 -44.488 -67.098 -22.981
Belles 198.015 155.286 106.898 220.048 -21.579 -46.015 11.127
Beshilo 178.259 216.494 238.081 427.133 21.449 33.559 139.613
Dabus 254.806 181.607 158.974 324.085 -28.727 -37.610 27.189
Didessa 380.807 208.516 98.682 264.697 -45.244 -74.086 -30.490
Fincha 127.267 132.683 78.108 205.000 4.256 -38.626 61.079
Guder 211.761 119.269 68.785 174.011 -43.677 -67.517 -17.827
Jemma 157.529 191.033 154.201 372.243 21.268 -2.113 136.301
Muger 122.944 138.187 76.015 250.984 12.398 -38.171 104.145
N.gojjam 205.367 117.827 74.230 448.785 -42.626 -63.855 118.528
Rahad 151.477 116.790 95.493 194.621 -22.899 -36.959 28.482
S.gojam 318.053 156.787 89.861 331.805 -50.704 -71.746 4.324
Tana 335.584 234.901 123.190 401.722 -30.002 -63.291 19.708
Welaka 54.407 169.464 175.756 414.192 211.476 223.040 661.287
Wonbera 121.517 127.166 72.364 220.065 4.649 -40.449 81.098

As the result shown in table 5-13, As a sub basin three of them reanalysis
products are not adequately captured the PMP values with respective the sub
basin of the in-situ PMP value. However, within 25% of deviation ECMWF,
ECNWF bias corrected & GLADS Captured by 7, 1 & 5 number of sub basins
respectively.

5.2.7 Estimation of PMP Using Hershfield’s Chart and Compering the

Result with the computed PMP of Hershfield’s Frequency Equation.
So far practitioners in Ethiopia have been using the Hershfield’s chart for
estimation of PMP. Here in this the study estimates of PMP were made
alternatively using the chart’s Km values to elaborate the discrepancy of the
results from the results obtained in the above procedures see the following table
for in situ 1-day data.

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Table 5-14 Comparison of the resulted PMP with the PMPs from the graphical
method

in Situ 1-Day Duration

Adj. PMP By
Station Adj. Stdev(σn) Percent of
Station Name Xm mean(Xn) PMP graphical
No. (mm) deviation
(mm) method (mm)
1 Abasina Joger 70.458 72.601 19.091 319.336 419.645 31.412
2 Abay Sheleko 48.194 48.987 16.263 257.503 344.622 33.832
3 Abdela 63.025 62.436 19.428 312.044 415.606 33.188
4 Adet 50.303 51.212 16.092 257.889 343.739 33.289
5 Agaro 48.139 47.184 11.75 199.377 260.78 30.798
6 Alem Ketema 54.16 54.322 20.336 314.155 423.998 34.965
7 Alibo 49.293 49.797 13.888 228.901 302.259 32.048
8 Amba mariam 42.131 44.807 13.614 219.857 292.288 32.944
9 Ambagiorgis Sch 45.048 46.74 17.587 271.421 366.444 35.009
10 Ambo Agriculture 44.858 46.331 9.798 174.142 224.443 28.885
11 Ambo Met 36.543 36.997 12.742 200.194 268.626 34.183
12 Angerguten 56.156 54.246 16.204 262.712 348.809 32.772
13 Arbgebeya 50.424 51.845 15.977 257.18 342.281 33.09
14 Arjo 56.492 57.445 12.968 226.106 293.182 29.666
15 Assosa 64.309 65.966 19.807 320.737 426.026 32.827
16 Atnago 61.527 62.565 17.714 290.884 384.577 32.21
17 Ayehu 54.972 55.466 18.481 292.398 391.421 33.866
18 Aykel 58.7 59.064 13.686 236.855 307.854 29.976
19 Baco 52.583 54.025 14.104 236.357 310.413 31.332
20 Bahir Dar (Airport) 77.222 80.658 17.885 313.455 405.779 29.454
21 Bahir Dar New 69.6 74.759 22.787 367.721 488.99 32.979
22 Bambase 64.214 64.655 25.912 395.145 535.694 35.569
23 Baro (Yaya-Hurum) 53.058 54.672 12.311 214.802 278.466 29.639
24 Bedele 55.909 56.099 11.418 205.315 263.66 28.417
25 Bullen 71.924 74.01 13.059 245.957 311.402 26.608
26 Chagni 72.092 69.036 20.126 290.421 434.893 49.746
27 Chewahit 50.953 54.068 17.867 283.186 378.861 33.785
28 Chira 50.614 52.274 11.063 196.582 253.382 28.894
29 Chora 53.058 54.672 12.311 214.802 278.466 29.639
30 Combolcha 56.322 57.553 12.037 214.653 276.366 28.75
31 Dangila 51.741 52.549 10.715 192.572 247.331 28.435
32 Debark 65.831 65.671 35.945 521.002 719.094 38.021
33 Debena 44.948 44.636 13.941 223.72 298.061 33.23
34 Debre Berhan 47.17 47.548 10.698 186.702 242.021 29.629
35 Debre Elias 44 45.67 8.993 163.393 209.148 28.003
36 Debre Markos 49.273 47.873 12.686 211.781 278.484 31.496
37 Debre Tabor 57.84 57.771 13.904 238.105 310.523 30.415

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in Situ 1-Day Duration

Adj. Adj. PMP By
Station Percent of
Station Name Xm mean(Xn) Stdev(σn) PMP graphical
No. deviation
(mm) (mm) method (mm)
38 Debre Work 48.482 48.948 11.659 200.232 260.89 30.294
39 Dedessa 69.329 70.191 20.964 339.901 451.283 32.769
40 Dedessa river (Dildy) 59.596 61.602 14.738 252.804 329.515 30.344
41 Dejen 59.846 60.626 16.401 272.378 358.77 31.718
42 Deke Istifanos 79.434 77.16 29.285 451.206 609.514 35.086
43 Dembecha 52.54 54.469 14.217 238.265 312.911 31.329
44 Dengoro 84.75 85.682 30.227 472.544 635.16 34.413
45 Derba 49.744 49.864 19.795 302.398 409.705 35.485
46 Dimtu 48.583 51.222 7.137 146.59 180.961 23.447
47 Enango 58.045 58.976 16.058 266.241 350.885 31.792
48 Enjabara 63.224 63.856 14.886 257.191 334.46 30.043
49 Felege Berhan 59.267 59.837 17.425 284.206 376.596 32.508
50 Feres Bet 63.153 64.154 23.958 370.291 499.672 34.94
51 Fiche 52.224 52.714 14.113 234.994 309.266 31.606
52 Filiklik 40.094 39.393 11.577 188.42 249.844 32.6
53 Finoteselam 50.336 53.733 10.884 196.003 251.587 28.359
54 Gatira 53.153 54.114 10.015 185.635 236.171 27.223
55 Gebre guracha 36.879 40.178 4.631 102.966 124.362 20.78
56 Gembe 52.604 53.341 10.298 188.275 240.542 27.761
57 Gidayana 70.341 72.812 16.999 293.58 381.827 30.059
58 Gimijabet Mariam 57.861 58.015 16.936 276.072 365.884 32.532
59 Gohatsion 54.233 55.146 12.833 221.825 288.429 30.026
60 Gondar 52.175 52.634 12.138 210.354 273.283 29.916
61 Gondar A.P. 54.262 56.694 16.793 272.807 361.964 32.681
62 Gorgora 48.43 49.305 12.298 208.575 272.863 30.822
63 Gundo Woin 59.497 59.604 17.34 282.893 374.817 32.494
64 haike 51.634 54.898 7.402 154.047 189.455 22.985
65 Hamusit 79.197 82.213 22.937 378.003 499.171 32.055
66 Jeldu 41.521 42.784 9.841 170.675 221.678 29.883
67 Jimma 52.86 54.347 10.996 198.094 254.237 28.341
68 Kachis e(Rs) 68.29 67.463 16.547 281.912 368.261 30.63
69 Kelem Meda 61.181 63.577 15.554 265.178 346.324 30.601
70 Kone 66.215 67.853 14.658 229.089 334.308 45.93
71 Lemi 60.468 61.829 16.129 270.349 355.028 31.322
72 Limu Genet 63.296 64.722 14.311 251.02 324.873 29.421
73 Maligawa 52.871 55.482 13.729 233.343 305.053 30.732
74 Mehal Meda (RS) 46.421 47.467 9.901 176.71 227.451 28.714
75 Mekne selam 30.36 33.281 5.312 103.633 129.845 25.293
76 Mendi 77.95 77.555 31.598 480.405 651.956 35.71

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in Situ 1-Day Duration

Adj. PMP By
Station Adj. Stdev(σn) Percent of
Station Name Xm mean(Xn) PMP graphical
No. (mm) deviation
(mm) method (mm)
77 Merawi 67.85 69.913 17.793 300.166 393.361 31.048
78 Merto Lemariam 38.88 40.134 12.621 202.236 269.564 33.292
79 Meshenti 59.405 62.278 12.739 228.723 293.853 28.475
80 Metema 62.353 62.853 15.447 263.035 343.655 30.65
81 Motta 50.323 51.233 12.934 218.665 286.352 30.955
82 Mukelemi 65.285 66.726 14.967 261.441 338.802 29.59
83 Muletadiga 57.817 57.775 19.373 306.098 409.945 33.926
84 Nefas mewucha 46.969 48.185 3.17 93.855 105.811 12.738
85 Nekemte 75.004 75.26 23.161 372.931 496.29 33.078
86 Neshi 63.052 67.037 13.582 244.574 313.936 28.36
87 Nolekaba 64.116 66.549 16.564 281.096 367.656 30.794
88 Pawe 80.943 81.949 21.435 359.034 471.603 31.353
89 Serbo 54.444 55.664 21.189 326.281 440.846 35.112
90 Shambu 51.585 52.081 13.676 228.845 300.689 31.394
91 Shola Gebeya 37.86 41.502 9.515 165.163 214.469 29.853
92 Sibusire 52.821 55.605 12.911 223.317 290.306 29.997
93 Sirinka 54.594 56.397 17.016 275.24 365.721 32.873
94 Tillili 58.804 59.867 11.664 212.628 271.9 27.876
95 Tis_Abay 56.963 57.866 20.884 324.972 437.504 34.628
96 Wegel Tena 44.565 44.487 9.22 164.88 212.092 28.634
97 Werejiru 67.788 69.849 10.084 204.277 253.16 23.93
98 Wereta (Add) 74.177 75.517 24.089 384.757 513.416 33.439
99 Wetet Abay 66.074 65.694 18.512 304.334 402.213 32.162
100 Yanfa 65.804 67.353 18.296 303.524 399.945 31.767
101 Yejubie 44.887 45.672 12.242 203.779 268.212 31.619
102 Yetemen 51.949 51.588 22.08 332.746 452.967 36.13
103 Yetnora 47.825 48.902 10.689 188.122 243.211 29.284
104 Zege 55.253 54.908 19.067 299.043 401.516 34.267

The PMP obtained using the new K value and the chart K values for the stations
in the basin shown above table confirms that the PMPs obtained using the K from
the chart is greater than range between 13 and 50 % of the PMP obtained using
the new K value. Additionally, the Table 5-15 show below the computed Km and

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PMP value with respective percent of deviation using Hershfield chart for 1-day
both in-situ and reanalysis data in the study area.

Table 5-15 Comparison of the resulted PMP with the PMPs from the graphical
method for 1-day in situ and reanalysis data.

frequency
PMP By
Adj. Adj. factor (Km) Percent
graphical
Data Source Duration Station mean(Xn) St.dev(σn) PMP for of
method
(mm) (mm graphical deviation
(mm)
method
in Situ 1-Day 32 65.671 35.945 521.002 18.178 719.094 38.021
ECMWF 1-Day 22 58.867 29.809 336.275 17.881 591.897 76.015
ECMWF Bis Corrected 1-Day 69 41.932 21.292 268.427 18.393 433.555 61.517
GLADS 1-Day 84 118.331 61.088 586.421 16.916 1151.727 96.399

As the table 5-15 shown for both 1-day in-situ and reanalysis products the PMP
value from Hershfield chart increased by the range between 38 and 96.4 % from
that estimated PMP form of Hershfield’s Frequency equation. This exaggerated
difference of PMP as a result of difference in new Km and the Chart’s Km has far
reaching consequence in the total cost of dam projects when dam design is
considered based on PMF. Therefore, high attention should be provided for the
estimation of Km values because, Km constant is sensitive in the estimating
PMP.

5.2.8 Comparing the PMP Values with the 10,000 years Return Period
Quantiles in the Study Area

According to Hershfield (1962), the magnitude of point PMP at an individual

station should normally not exceed three times the Highest Observation Rainfall
from a long period of rainfall data. Dhar et al. (1981).
Although the PMP has a theoretical exceedance probability of zero, meaning that
it is so large that it will never be exceeded, this is not the case in reality.
Consequently, a few studies have sought to assign a risk statement to PMP

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estimates. The National Research Council (NRC) estimates the return period of
the PMP in the United States as between 105 and 109 years (NRC 1994). Taking
these in to consideration the PMP obtained for different stations in the study area
compared with their corresponding rainfall Quantiles for T=10,000 years.
The ratio of the PMP values to the T=10,000 years’ rainfall Quantiles varies from
0.7 to 3.4 for both in-situ and reanalysis data of different durations. The ratios for
the whole stations in the basin are attached in the Appendix G.
On average the ratio of PMP values for upper Blue Nile Basin to their
corresponding 10,000 years’ quantiles are tabulated as follows.

Table 5-16 The ratio of PMP to the 10,000 years return period event
The ratio of PMP to the 10,000 years quantiles
ECMWF with bias
Duration In situ ECMWF corrected GLADS
1-day 1.586 1.607 1.780 1.351
2-day 1.726 1.629 1.668 1.244
3-day 1.828 1.603 1.841 1.261

As per the upper mentioned table the ratio of PMP to the 10,000 years return
period quantiles for in-situ, ECMWF, bias Corrected ECMWF and GLADS data
in the study area are 1.7,1.6,1.8 and 1.3 respectively. This shows ECMWF,
ECMWF bias corrected and GLADS reanalysis precipitation product captured the
result of average ratio of PMP to the 10,000 years return period quantiles of the
in situ data.

5.2.9 Comparing the PMP values of Some of Previous Dam Design Trend
in UBNB with this Study Results
As Water works design and supervision Enterprise or WWDSE (2010) the PMP
value estimated by Hershfield D.M (1973) for Ribb and Megech dam design and
for Gumara irrigation project the design report of WWDSE (2008) shows the
frequency factor (K) value taken as a constant of 15. The compared result of

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the previous dam design trend in UBNB with the computed PMP value from
Hershfield frequency equation are shown in Table 5-17

Table 5-17 Compering PMP value of the previous dam design trend with this
study result.

For 1-Day Duration

Using Using
Percent
From final detail design report, WWDSE Hershfield’s Hershfield’s
of
(2010) & WWDSE (2008) graphical frequency
deviation
procedure equation
Station used for design of Size of the PMP depth PMP depth
(%)
the dams data (year) (mm) (mm)
Debre Tabor (for the Ribb
1951-2004 295 203 45
dam design)
Gondar (for the Megech
1965-2002 303 214 42
Dam design)
Debre Tabor & Bahir Dar
413 319 29
(for Gumara Dam design)

The Table 5-17 result shows the previous dam design of Ribb, Megech & Gumara
are overestimated the PMP value by 45, 42 and 29 Percent's respectively this
leads to uneconomical dam designs. Therefore, the embedded Km value i.e. 11
is a better to design the reliable PMP value in UBNB.

5.3 Construction of k and PMP Contour Maps for UBNB

Continuous phenomena like precipitation can be graphically represented as
contour maps, which are maps in which a set of isolines are interpolated between
points of known value. Interpolation is necessary to obtain a spatial pattern
because precipitation data typically come in the form of points. However, there
are problems of interpolating data between irregularly spaced points of known
value. The inverse distance weighting (IDW) is one of the methods to address
the upper mentioned problem. IDW lays a grid on top of the input or control points
and estimates values at each grid point as a function of distance to each control

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point. Then the technique interpolates between the grid points. The control points
are weighted as an inverse function of their distance from the grid points.
As shown in figures below the K and PMP contour maps for the in-situ 1-day
durations using Hershfield’s equation and chart in the study area were
constructed using Arc-GIS environment. The inverse distance weighting (IDW)
method is used to construct the isolines between two station PMP values.

Figure 5-3 Frequency factor (K) Contour Maps of UBNB for in-situ 1-Day
Durations using Hershfield’s frequency equation

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Figure 5-4 PMP (mm) Contour Maps of UBNB for in-situ 1-Day Durations using
Hershfield’s frequency equation

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Figure 5-5 Frequency factor (K) Contour Maps of UBNB for in-situ 1-Day Durations using
Hershfield’s Chart.

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Figure 5-6 PMP (mm) Contour Maps of UBNB for in-situ 1-Day Durations using
Hershfield’s Chart.

The upper mentioned K and PMP contour map shows the spatial distributions of PMPs
over Upper Blue Nile basin. Data from these maps used to characterize the PMP over the
Upper Blue Nile Basin. The K and PMP contour maps for the reanalysis products using
Hershfield’s equation and Hershfield’s chart of different durations are sited in the
Appendix H.

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6.0 SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1 Summary and Conclusion

One of the most important problems in Hydrometeorology is the estimation of reliable

probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for different durations that are expected to occur
over a point or an area. These estimates are of considerable importance to hydrologists
for calculating the probable maximum flood (PMF) for planning, design and risk
assessment of hydrological structures such as flood control dams upstream of populated
areas, and spillways on large dams.
The purpose of this study was to evaluate the frequency factor (Km) embedded in
Hershfield’s frequency equation of PMP using in-situ & reanalysis precipitation products
and refine Km values that would adequately represent the upper Blue Nile Basin and also
to evaluate the reanalysis products of K and PMP values of the UBNB for 1 day, 2 & 3
days’ durations.
In this study, 104 stations for 1 day and 93 stations for 2 and 3 days’ durations were used
to estimate new PMP on the basis of statistical procedure.
The methodology chosen for the study area was the statistical method developed by
Hershfield (1961, 1965) to estimate PMP based on a general frequency equation given
by Chow (1951) for estimating PMP but the statistical value results of the basin were used
instead of the Hershfield’s chart to determine the values of frequency factor embedded
with the equation.
The comparison of the Km value obtained from Hershfield’s statistical procedure and the
chart is far from each other. While most of the Km values obtained from the chart is
between 15 and 18 the maximum Km value obtained using statistical method for both in
situ and reanalysis data of 1-day,2 and 3 days’ durations are limited to 11.
Similar procedure applied on stations in China (Desa et al. (2001) and M.N. Desa et al.
(2003)) and Romania (NIHWM, Bucharest, ROMANIA) to validate the Km value obtained
from the chart proved similar trend of lower value.
Using Hershfield equation the estimated Km and PMP (mm) value are not more than 11
and 875 respectively for both in-situ and reanalysis products for all 1 day, 2 & 3 days’
durations in UBNB.

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For UBNB GLADS precipitation product adequately capture PMP with respective to the
in situ PMP result, and both ECMWF & ECMWF bias corrected reanalysis products are
inadequate to capture PMP for this study area so, it needs data down scaling or other
major data improvement techniques to capture PMP value adequately. However, the
maximum frequency factor (Km) value computed from ECMWF & ECMWF bias corrected
products are adequately captured the in situ maximum frequency factor (Km) within the
percent of variation range between 2 & 15.
When comparing the PMP value as a sub basin, three of them of the reanalysis products
are not adequately captured the PMP values with respective the sub basin of the in-situ
PMP value this shows the reanalysis products as sub basin of UBNB are not practicable
it needs minor and major data improvement techniques. However, within 25% of deviation
ECMWF, ECNWF bias corrected & GLADS captured by 7, 1 & 5 number of sub basins
respectively.
The estimated PMPs are also corresponds to return periods of up to 10 7 years return
period, which is usually acceptable range (NRC,1994) justifying the acceptability of the
new Km. Therefore, the new value can be adapted in UBNB also. Comparison of the PMP
value using the new Km (Km=11) and the chart values (15-18), exhibited pronounced
difference.
The PMP obtained using the new Km value and the chart Km value for the previous dam
design of Ribb, Megech and Gumara then the result shows the PMP obtained using the
Km from the chart are greater than by 45, 49, and 29 % of the application of new Km
value. This difference of PMP as a result of difference in new Km and the Chart Km has
far reaching consequence in the total cost of dam projects when dam design is considered
based on PMF. Therefore, high attention should be provided for the estimation of Km
values.
Furthermore, the average ratio of PMP to the 10,000 years return period quantiles for in-
situ, ECMWF, bias Corrected ECMWF and GLADS data in the study area are
1.7,1.6,1.8,1.3 respectively. This shows both ECMWF and GLADS reanalysis
precipitation product captured the result of average ratio of PMP to the 10,000 years
return period quantiles of the in situ data.

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Inaccuracy in PMP estimates result in similar inaccuracy in PMF determination, a risk-

based approach to hydraulic design criteria, over estimation of which also results in
unwanted economic loss. So far in Ethiopia the frequency factor used for the PMP
estimate were made using the Hershfield’s chart, but the result of this study shows that
these PMP estimates were considerably high and were not therefore, economical. Fresh
and reliable estimates are made through this study for the Upper Blue Nile basin.

6.2 Recommendations
According to the results obtained in this research, the following points are recommended:
 Like other country, further researches should be conducted on the rest of basins
of Ethiopia for fixing the country’s reliable maximum frequency factor (km).
 The PMP developed for a station can be used for areas up to 25 sq. km (according
to the WMO guide line). But when the PMP developed at a station is to be applied
to an area larger than about 25 sq. km, either the developed PMP contours are
used or the point PMP values should be reduced with the help of depth area
reduction curves.
 Different country in the world a physically based models are developed to estimate
the PMP objectively on the basis of maximization of the physical factors that control
the precipitation evolution (Austin et al. 1995, Collier) further researches should be
conducted on the application of these models in our country.
 Since the development of the probable maximum flood (PMF) is a powerful tool for
practical purposes of water resource developments like in design of spillways to
avoid the overtopping of dams as a result of river flooding, it is advisable to develop
the PMF for the study area and for the country as well.

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7.0 REFERENCES
1. B.D.Kulkarni (2007) Generalized Physical Approach of Estimating Areal Probable
Maximum Precipitation (PMP) For Plain Region of the Godavari River Basin
(India). Journal Spatial Hydrology Vol.2 No.2
2. B. Ghahraman**(2008). The Estimation of One Day Duration Probable Maximum
Precipitation Over Atrak Watershed in Iran Iranian, Journal of Science &
Technology, Transaction B, Engineering, Vol. 32, No. B2, pp 175-179
3. Bajpai, A.C., Calus, I.M. and Fairley, J.A. (1978). Statistical Methods for Engineers
and Scientists. JWSN, London.
4. Bruce, J.P., Clark, R.H., (1996). Introduction to Hydro-Meteorology.New York,
Pergamon. p319.
5. Chow, V.T. (ed.) (1964). Handbook of Applied Hydrology. McGraw-Hill Book
Company, USA
6. Chow, V.T. (1951). A general formula for hydrologic frequency analysis. Trans.
Am. Geophys. Union 32, 231–237.
7. Chow, V.T., Maidment, D.R. and Mays,L.W. (1988). Applied Hydrology.
McGRAW, Singapore.
8. Cunnane, C. (1989) Statistical Distributions for Flood Frequency Analysis. World
Meteorological Organization Operational Hydrology Report, No.33.
9. D.Alemayehu (2007), A case study on Blue Nile Basin, Msc Thesis in Arba minch
University, Arbaminch, Ethiopia
10. Desa M., M.N., Noriah, A.B., Rakhecha, P.R., (2001). Probable maximum
precipitation for 24-hr duration over Southeast Asian monsoon region, Selangor,
Malaysia. Atmos. Res. 58, 41–54.
11. Desa M., M.N., Sharifuddin, S., Rakhecha, P.R., (2003). To estimate 24-hour
probable maximum precipitation for the Malaysian state of Kelantan. Int.Water
Power Dam Constr. 35–39 (November issue).
12. Dhar O.N, A.K. Kulkami and P.R. Rakhecha, 1981. Probable maximum point
rainfall estimation for the southern half Indian peninsuala, Proc.indian, Academy
of science, Banglore 90(1).

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13. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Available [on
line] http://www.ecmwf.int/
14. F. Nobilis , T. Haiden 2, and M. Kerschbaum ,(1990) ,Statistical Considerations
Concerning Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) in the Alpine Country of
Austria
15. Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) Available [online]
http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/service/grads-gds/glads
16. Hansen, E. M., Schwarz, F. K. and Riedel, J. T., (1977): Probable maximum
precipitation estimates: Colorado river and Great Basin drainages.
Hydrometeorological Report, No. 49. U.S. National Weather Service.
17. Hershfield, D. M. (1961a) Estimating the probable maximum precipitation. J.
Hydraul. Div. ASCE 87 (HY5), 99-116.
18. Hershfield, D. M. (1961b) Rainfall frequency atlas of the United States for
durations from 30 minutes to 24 hours and return periods, 1 to 100 years. US
Weather Bureau Tech. Pap. no. 40, Washington DC.
19. Hershfield, D. M. (1965) Method for estimating probable maximum rainfall. J. Am.
Wat. Wks Ass. 57, 965-972.
20. K. Fernando and S. Wickramasuriya (2010) The hydro-meteorological estimation
of probable maximum precipitation under varying scenarios in Sri Lanka.
International Journal of Climatology,31, (668–676).
21. M.C.Casas, R.Rodrıguez Marc P. Antonio G´azquez and A. Redano (2010)
Estimation of the probable maximum precipitation in Barcelona (Spain).
International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.2149.
22. M.N. Desa M., P.R. Rakhecha Probable maximum precipitation for 24-h duration
over an equatorial region: Part 2-Johor, Malaysia
23. Ministry of water Resources, Lake Tana Sub-basin four dams project Ribb
(August,2007), Gumara (February,2008) and Megech (January, 2008) dam
design Feasibility Reports, Volume III.
24. Ministry of water Resources, Lake Tana Sub-basin four dams project Ribb
(February,2010) and Megech (February,2010) Final Detail Design Reports,
Volume V.

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25. National Research Council, (1988, 1994)., Estimating Probabilities of Extreme

Floods, Methods and Recommended Research”, ISBN 0-309-03791-3, National
Academy Press, Washington, D.C. p 141.
26. Rao, K.H, & Hamed, A.R. (2000). Flood Frequency Analysis. CRC press LLC,
Florida
27. Simona Matreata, National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management
(NIHWM), Bucharest Dynamic-Statistical Model for the determination of PMF,
ROMANIA
28. Sine, A. (2004). Regional Flood Frequency Analysis for Blue Nile River Basin,
Ethiopia, Msc Thesis. Arbaminch University, Arbaminch, Ethiopia.
29. US. Weather Bureau, (1970). Probable maximum precipitation, Mekong river
basin., Hydromet. Report No. 46, Silver spring, Md.
30. U.S. National Weather Service’s Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center,
website http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc.
31. US Weather Bureau (1961) Generalised estimates of PMP and rainfall frequency
data for Puerto-Rico and Virgin Islands. Tech. Paper no. 42.
32. Vincenzo Levizzani (2008) Assessment of Global Precipitation Products
http://www.researchgate.net/publication/257029400
33. World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2009. Manual for estimation of
probable maximum Precipitation, W.M.O. No. 1045.
34. World Meteorological Organization, 1986: Manual for Estimation of Probable
Maximum Precipitation. Operational Hydrology Report No. 1, WMO–No. 332,
Geneva.

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

APPENDIXES
APPENDIX A: Available Meteorological Stations Used for Upper Blue
Nail Basin

Longtude Latitude
No. Name of Stations Zone Elevation
1 Abasina Joger Mirab Wellega 1800 36.000 9.033
2 Abay Sheleko Misrak Gojjam 1823 38.157 10.113
3 Abdela Illubabor 1942 36.233 8.367
4 Adet Mirab Gojjam 2179 37.493 11.275
5 Agaro Jimma 1666 36.600 7.850
6 Alem Ketema Semen Shoa 2280 39.033 10.033
7 Alibo Misrak Wellega 2513 37.074 9.886
8 Amba mariam 38.467 11.750
9 Ambagiorgis Sch Semen Gondar 2900 37.600 12.767
10 Ambo Agriculture Mirab Shoa 2068 37.840 8.985
11 Ambo Met 37.850 8.983
12 Angerguten 36.333 9.267
13 Arbgebeya Misrak Wellega 1860 36.750 9.050
14 Arjo Misrak Wellega 2565 36.500 8.750
15 Assosa 34.520 10.070
16 Atnago Jimma 1847 36.983 8.300
17 Ayehu Awi 1771 36.793 10.661
18 Aykel Semen Gondar 2254 37.059 12.540
19 Baco Mirab Shoa 1650 37.083 9.117
20 Bahir Dar (Airport) Mirab Gojjam 1827 37.322 11.603
21 Bahir Dar New Mirab Gojjam 1800 37.385 11.595
22 Bambase Assossa 1460 34.733 9.750
23 Baro (Yaya-Hurum) Illubabor 1700 36.900 7.967
24 Bedele Illubabor 2011 36.333 8.450
25 Bullen Metekel 1659 36.082 10.596
26 Chagni Awi 1614 36.499 10.974
27 Chewahit Semen Gondar 1925 37.228 12.335
28 Chira Illubabor 2095 36.233 7.733
29 Chora Illubabor 2090 36.117 8.350
30 Combolcha Debub Wollo 1857 39.718 11.084
31 Dangila Awi 2116 36.846 11.434
32 Debark Semen Gondar 2836 37.898 13.142
33 Debena Illubabor 1930 36.283 8.400
34 Debre Berhan Semen Shoa 2750 39.500 9.633
35 Debre Elias Gojam 2140 10.300 37.470
36 Debre Markos Misrak Gojjam 2446 37.739 10.326

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……….Cont'd Available Meteorological stations used for UBNB

37 Debre Tabor Semen Gondar 2612 37.995 11.867
38 Debre Work Misrak Gojjam 2508 38.162 10.651
39 Dedessa Misrak Wellega 1310 36.100 9.383
40 Dedessa river (Dildy) Illubabor 1295 36.400 8.683
41 Dejen Misrak Gojjam 2448 38.151 10.171
42 Deke Istifanos Mirab Gojjam 1815 37.226 11.873
43 Dembecha Mirab Gojjam 2117 37.486 10.566
44 Dengoro Mirab Wellega 1900 35.733 9.200
45 Derba Semen Shoa 2385 38.651 9.426
46 Dimtu Jimma 1780 37.233 7.850
47 Enango Mirab Wellega 1800 35.683 9.167
48 Enjabara Awi 2568 36.919 10.995
49 Felege Berhan Misrak Gojjam 2710 38.067 10.743
50 Feres Bet Mirab Gojjam 3000 37.609 10.850
51 Fiche Semen Shoa 2784 38.733 9.767
52 Filiklik Semen Shoa 1853 38.243 10.053
53 Finoteselam Mirab Gojjam 1840 37.050 10.717
54 Gatira Illubabor 2358 36.200 7.983
55 Gebre guracha 38.400 9.800
56 Gembe Jimma 1596 36.667 7.833
57 Gidayana Misrak Wellega 1850 36.617 9.867
58 Gimijabet Mariam 35.833 9.167
59 Gohatsion Semen Shoa 2507 38.240 10.004
60 Gondar Gonder 1967 12.550 37.420
61 Gondar A.P. Semen Gondar 1973 37.432 12.521
62 Gorgora Semen Gondar 1830 37.300 12.250
63 Gundo Woin Misrak Gojjam 2052 38.089 10.929
64 haike 39.667 11.300
65 Hamusit 1900 37.380 11.770
66 Jeldu Mirab Shoa 2952 38.083 9.250
67 Jimma Jimma 1718 36.817 7.667
68 Kachis e(Rs) Mirab Shoa 2520 37.860 9.583
69 Kelem Meda Debub Wollo 2500 39.517 11.183
70 Kone 2000 36.783 8.683
71 Lemi Semen Shoa 2500 38.900 9.817
72 Limu Genet Jimma 1766 36.950 8.067
73 Maligawa 1800 36.917 8.100
74 Mehal Meda (RS) Semen Shoa 3084 39.660 10.315
75 Mekne selam 38.750 10.750
76 Mendi Mirab Wellega 1650 35.100 9.783

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…Cont'd Available Meteorological stations used for UBNB

77 Merawi Mirab Gojjam 2000 37.164 11.411
78 Merto Lemariam Misrak Gojjam 2676 38.280 10.880
79 Meshenti 37.284 11.473
80 Metema Semen Gondar 790 36.414 12.775
81 Motta Misrak Gojjam 2417 37.890 11.074
82 Mukelemi Mirab Wellega 35.533 9.333
83 Muletadiga Mirab Wellega 2130 36.483 8.950
84 Nefas mewucha 38.467 11.734
85 Nekemte Misrak Wellega 2080 36.463 9.083
86 Neshi Misrak wellega 2060 37.268 9.723
87 Nolekaba Mirab Wellega 1800 35.833 8.950
88 Pawe Metekel 1119 36.410 11.312
89 Serbo Jimma 1792 36.967 7.700
90 Shambu Misrak Wellega 2460 37.121 9.571
91 Shola Gebeya Mirab Shoa 2500 39.550 9.218
92 Sibusire Misrak Wellega 1826 36.872 9.040
93 Sirinka 39.600 11.750
94 Tillili 37.021 10.251
95 Tis_Abay Mirab Gojjam 2642 37.579 11.488
96 Wegel Tena Semen Wollo 2952 39.221 11.590
97 Werejiru Mirab Wellega 1800 35.367 9.617
98 Wereta (Add) Debub Gondar 1819 37.696 11.922
99 Wetet Abay Mirab Gojjam 1920 37.042 11.370
100 Yanfa Illubabor 2080 36.600 8.233
101 Yejubie 37.750 10.150
102 Yetemen Misrak Gojjam 2418 38.147 10.329
103 Yetnora Misrak Gojjam 2420 38.108 10.245
104 Zege Mirab Gojjam 1801 37.312 11.689

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APPENDIX B: Available in Situ and Reanalysis Data for 1 day, 2 and 3

days’ durations

Table B.1 Annual Maximum Rainfall of in-situ data for Different Stations in UBNB (mm)
Abay Sheleko Abdela
Rainfall depth having a duration of Rainfall depth having a duration of
Year Year
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1984 38.3 61.7 78 1986 58.4 104 117.2
1985 40.3 59.7 66 1987 67 77 130
1986 57 98 112.5 1988 96.4 124.3 158.7
1987 44 54.1 65.3 1989 69.5 82.1 115.1
1988 58 67.5 90.6 1990 50 76 113.3
1989 52.6 61.4 72.4 1991 60.2 81.4 101.5
1990 41.1 42.3 58.3 1992 62.1 90.7 105.2
1993 30.4 50.7 60.9 1993 60.5 91.5 91.5
1994 36.2 61.5 85.5 1994 49.3 67 82
1995 40 49.4 73.2 1995 42.5
1996 43.2 81.1 115.8 1996 57.8 70.2 78.9
1997 69.8 79.2 115.1 1997 63.6 79.2 93.8
1998 49.2 64 88.5 1998 39.6 70.3 91.9
1999 50.6 70.8 71.9 1999 46 97.8 123.1
2000 54.5 66.3 79.1 2000 94.7 73 93.3
2001 54.4 68.1 80.5 2001 48.4
2002 52.4 85.2 104.5 2002 40.5 51.6 73.2
2003 51.1 66.4 85.2 2003 38.3 58.5 67
2004 58.4 82.1 116.4 2004 60.6 107.9 125.5
2005 53.8 71.1 94.6 2005 67.4 86.5 92.8
2006 42.3 63.4 103.6 2006 57.6 78.8 88.8
2007 81.2 101.2 103.5 2007 142.3 143.3 143.5
2008 45 76.7 95.1 2008 42.4 68.3 74.7
2009 50.9 80.8 93.2 2009 60.7 99.4 112
2010 43.7 53.7 70.9 2012 46.6 104.8 150.7
2011 78.9 101.2 115.5 2013 97.3
2012 72 100.6 112.8 2014 72.6 87.6 87.6
2013 30.5 60.5 84.5 2015 72.4
2014 32.5 39.4 53.7
2015 35.5 60.8 60.8

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Adet Agaro
Rainfall depth having a Rainfall depth having a
Year duration of Year duration of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1986 31.2 90.1 125.7 1995 48.4 91.2 121.3
1987 42.6 55.1 73.7 1996 46.2 80.1 94.9
1988 76.1 80.3 86 1997 45.3 73 97.3
1989 79.5 103.5 114 1998 46.2 73 95.9
1990 37.8 57.2 71.7 1999 25.4 46.2 58.8
1991 53.9 76.5 93.7 2000 35.8 56.2 75.7
1992 64.7 80.2 98.7 2001 42.5 44.8 53.2
1993 41.5 62.3 75.6 2002 48.9 61.5 85.2
1994 43.6 67 76.7 2003 34.3 68.1 97.3
1995 64.5 103.9 122.9 2004 63.6 67.5 69.6
1996 56.3 61.1 75.2 2005 40 49.5 73.7
1997 56.6 70.2 80.6 2006 44 62.5 72.5
1998 81.9 113.1 118.4 2007 49.2 66.2 72.4
1999 40.3 59.3 75.2 2009 33.5 53.4 61.6
2000 35.8 45.5 51.3 2013 58.6 81 121.3
2001 46.7 65.5 77.6 2014 44.6 68.6 91
2002 46 54 59.5 2015 40.3 70.4 91.3
2003 43.6 60.4 72.1
2004 35.6 62.8 65.6
2005 53.8 60.6 71.6
2006 70.2 93.5 97.5
2007 34.2 56.6 79
2008 65.9 90.6 112
2009 38 59.5 75.5
2010 35.4 64.5 76.5
2011 69.5 81.5 83.3
2012 37.1
2013 38.8 69.1 73.3
2014 49.5 50.9 61.7
2015 38.5 46.7 49.9

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Alem Ketema Alibo

Rainfall depth having a Rainfall depth having a
Year duration of Year duration of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1980 110.8 135.3 157.8 1986 52.4 75.1 87.6
1981 80.9 126.1 128.5 1987 52.4 84.1 103
1982 76 80.2 95.7 1988 41.5 82.1 97
1983 63.5 63.5 80.3 1989 51.4 52.4 63.3
1984 31.4 52.7 63.5 1990 48.6 88.2 92.9
1985 66.3 76.1 85.6 1991 54.1 70.5 85.1
1986 51.2 90.1 125.7 1992 41.6 63.3 87.9
1987 42.8 57.4 68.6 1993 38.8 57.4 73.8
1988 65.9 112.1 146.7 1994 38.3 47.2 65
1989 74.5 109.5 155.1 1995 51.8 66.3 76.2
1990 14.4 17.6 24.2 1996 49.5 63.3 72.3
1991 42.5 67.2 89.4 1997 33.6 58.1 75.8
1992 103.4 103.4 104.4 1998 58.9 85.4 85.4
1993 43.9 56.1 81.5 1999 41.8 51 64.1
1994 54.8 59.9 75.1 2000 36.6 57.1 68.2
1995 32.6 44.7 61.7 2001 48.8 64.2 67.6
1996 82.7 100.9 118.9 2002 68.4 74.9 86.5
1997 54.0 89.9 116.2 2003 88.7 97.4 128.2
1998 47.3 60.1 70 2004 58.8 80.4 86
1999 44.1 65.5 90.3 2005 25.7 91.8 119.2
2000 50.2 80.7 97.1 2006 39.6 72.1 81
2001 47.2 71.5 86.8 2007 47.6 56.9 81
2002 55.8 78.1 86.3 2008 78.3 91.8 119.2
2003 51.3 74.4 87.1 2009 58.7 82 82
2004 38.3 47.3 66.7 2010 63.2 63.5 74.4
2005 47.5 61.8 82.9 2011 43.9 58.7 85.7
2006 45.6 59.3 73.3 2012 29.7 57.1 67
2007 65.3 71.9 91.3 2013 53.8 58.3 72.1
2008 35.5 62.8 69.1 2015 33 40.6 50.1
2009 48.9 60.8 75.6
2010 42.7 50.2 88.5
2011 39.7 54.1 64.9
2012 63.3 74.7 76.7
2013 35.0 60.4 66.9
2014 46.3 78.6 120.5

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Ambagiorgis Sch Ambo Agriculture

Rainfall depth having a Rainfall depth having a
Year duration of Year duration of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1984 43.2 46.4 46.4 1986 45 46.1 52.4
1986 36 49.5 58.3 1987 43.5 66.8 87
1987 46 66.5 73.9 1988 81 81 103
1988 100.6 109.2 116.9 1989 40 49.8 53.8
1989 28.4 40.4 45.7 1990 66.8 74 74.6
1990 26 32.4 47.9 1993 38.6 33.9 34.7
1992 83.7 90 90 1997 37 37.5 54.6
1993 46 50.8 53.5 1998 44.5 44.5 44.5
1994 30.7 51.7 61.1 1999 28.9 40.5 48
1995 36.4 63 81.6 2000 49 49 57.4
1996 33.6 49.1 62.6 2001 48.9 70.3 74.2
1997 43.1 69.4 79.9 2002 31.2 37.3 48.7
1998 50.3 65.2 91.8 2003 57.1 79.2 81.5
1999 39.5 55.6 63.7 2004 28.1 39 49
2000 58.5 68.5 72.9 2005 37.3 63.5 65.5
2001 36.2 60.8 73.6 2006 49 54.3 73
2002 44.2 82.1 88.7 2007 44.6 73 86.2
2003 45.6 64.9 100.2 2008 47.2 53.6 68.7
2004 30.9 43.4 53.3 2009 36 48 61.2
2005 41.8 48.1 59.1 2010 39 44.7 65.5
2006 43 74.3 89.6 2011 45.5 76.5 113
2007 80.4 92.1 103.6 2012 48.6 55.5 62.4
2008 48.7 67.1 76.9 2013 45.5 58 63.6
2009 35.7 52.9 63.9 2014 44.3 56.2 59.2
2010 30.2 51.3 70.7
2011 50.2 94.7 137.5
2013 32.3 59.5 74
2014 42.6 65.6 83.1
2015 42.6 54.3 70.1

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Arbgebeya Arjo
Rainfall depth having a Rainfall depth having a
Year duration of Year duration of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1988 58 65.2 79.1 1989 51 66 89
1989 38 48 61.2 1990 57.9 62.1 83.8
1990 48.6 89.4 109.4 1991 52.8 69.6 89.6
1991 41.9 72 107.5 1992 70.3 73.1 109.7
1992 48.1 88 124.6 1993 53 63 78.5
1993 39.7 73.6 90.7 1994 48.4 87 123.4
1994 31.5 45.6 52.2 1995 41.3 51 69.1
1995 72.1 101.9 105.4 1996 81.6 109.5 129.3
1996 51.6 57.2 76.8 1997 59.4 93 95.2
1997 61.1 69.9 83.2 1998 42.6 74.7 77.5
1998 42.7 66.2 70.9 1999 44.4 58.6 72.3
1999 62.6 68.6 69.2 2000 99 105.6 143.3
2000 66.8 75.1 83.2 2001 50.5 56.1 70.8
2001 43.7 61.1 81.1 2002 55 58.2 89.8
2002 38.8 52.1 67.4 2003 40 56.6 64.6
2003 69 84.2 107.2 2004 46.6 66.8 87.1
2004 79.2 88.3 90 2005 36.2 61.4 71
2005 77.8 90.3 90.3 2006 58.4 92.6 110.1
2006 38.5 59.8 79.2 2007 63.2 91.5 112.1
2007 28.7 40.8 44.1 2008 56.3 85.3 106.1
2008 44.5 71.9 106.4 2009 73.2 135.7 141.2
2009 48.6 91.1 93.6 2010 64.6 76.2 103.9
2011 44.1 57.2 61 2011 66.4 86.7 109.5
2014 52.1 66.6 74.3 2012 49.9
2015 32.9 53.8 64.3 2014 58.2 89 106.8
2015 48.6 83.2 100

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Debre Markos
Rainfall depth having a duration Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of Year of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1954 41.8 60.9 74.9 1985 78 87.9 97.5

1955 44.2 47.9 75.8 1986 46.6 69.4 76.1

1956 55 72 97.2 1987 42.6 64.4 84.4

1957 35.8 63.9 92 1988 62 70.7 82.7
1958 40.9 62.9 92.5 1989 50 60.5 90.5
1959 49.7 69.8 80.8 1990 56.1 65.3 75.4
1960 57 78 93.2 1991 49.2 68.7 75.5
1961 46.4 64.7 74.9 1992 41.1 48 61.8
1962 52.5 79.2 107.2 1993 61.3 73.4 85.8
1963 44.5 71.1 84.4 1994 58.4 89.1 92.5
1964 57.1 63.3 78.8 1995 34.6 48.5 77.7
1965 35.1 64.9 69.4 1996 44.8 81.6 84.1
1966 37.5 60.1 75.2 1997 86.9 99.7 114.2
1967 50.3 55.9 74.7 1998 34.5 40.2 59.1
1968 41.4 70.3 83.3 1999 35.9 61.4 78
1969 43 64.2 86.7 2000 57.3 88.6 98.6
1970 170 176.5 185.5 2001 85.7 106.8 121.4
1971 51.8 74 95.4 2002 50.7 75.4 88.8
1972 43.4 63.6 74.8 2003 57.1 67.5 101.9
1973 38.3 50.7 68.9 2004 58.3 72.8 87
1974 42 51.7 67.7 2005 38.7 42.7 62.3
1975 48.5 81.3 83.7 2006 38 64.4 88.8
1976 43.6 54.6 61.8 2007 33.1 58 83.5
1977 35.1 60.1 63.6 2008 41.9 61 89.5
1978 37.6 45 53.6 2009 52.6 72.3 81.8
1979 41.3 56 75.2 2010 55 74.5 79.5
1980 37.4 62.1 83.2 2011 63.5 73.5 80.6
1981 39.4 64 81 2012 47 78 82.3
1982 43.4 68.4 71.4 2013 36.7 55.9 83.4
1983 42.5 62.4 71.1 2014 41 51.1 75.5
1984 34.5 47.6 67.2 2015 35.3 44.6 58.5

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Assosa Atnago
Rainfall depth having a Rainfall depth having a
Year duration of Year duration of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1978 78.3 1986 40.6 44.8 66.8
1979 44 1987 66.4 98.5 124.5
1980 60.3 80.3 85.6 1988 105.6 86.3 96.3
1981 46.8 61.2 81 1989 57 147.6 190.8
1983 74.5 74.5 76.2 1990 41.3 100.6 122.6
1984 45.9 63 70.6 1991 39.3 72.6 98.6
1985 41.8 60.6 64.1 1992 86.5
1986 57.6 61.2 71.4 1993 67 90.4 134.3
1987 57.8 66.8 77.4 1994 66.1 90.4 103.4
1988 56 85.8 93.8 1995 54 89.9 125.4
1989 69.2 69.7 70.1 1996 74.1 106.9 134.6
1994 56.8 81.5 84.8 1997 67.1 101.2 160.5
1995 65.9 87.8 89.7 1998 79.2 81.5 103.5
1996 41.2 42.8 51.5 1999 62 85.2 103
2000 93 113 130 2000 51.7 86 129
2001 99 2001 52.5 109.1 134.9
2002 54.3 2002 60 93.3 120.7
2003 51.3 2003 33.5 87.6 105.8
2004 63 2004 46.8 91.7 132.6
2005 74 2005 40.6 81.7 112.3
2006 81.6 2006 48.2 85.7 108.7
2007 102.5 2007 89.3 88.5 99.9
2009 65.5 155.2 178.4
2010 68.8 109.5 116.5
2014 68.8 110.2 121.8
2015 67.8 89.2 120.3

AAiT - 90 - BY:ABENEZER E.
Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Aykel
Rainfall depth having a duration of Rainfall depth having a duration of
Year Year
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1968 76 88 100.5 1995 45.6 69.4 90.3
1969 65 65 78 1996 62.8 76.3 79.9
1971 42.7 61.5 80.5 1997 66.1 70.5 88.1
1972 36.5 50.1 66.4 1998 65 99 103.4
1973 57.7 78.2 94.6 1999 47.2 56.1 76.3
1974 67.7 121.8 147 2000 48.8 58.8 74.3
1975 64.2 100.3 144.4 2001 44.2 75.5 79
1977 69.8 119.9 179.4 2002 39.2 53.1 73.1
1978 65.7 117.2 169.8 2003 43.8 65.4 71.5
1979 107.1 192.2 251.8 2004 52.1 63.1 72
1980 81.2 96.6 130.1 2005 51.7 61.7 64.4
1981 42.8 76.6 100.2 2006 62 91.6 108.3
1982 65.4 72.1 91.1 2007 56.8 62.2 93.3
1985 82.7 82.7 89 2008 45.6 56.9 72.6
1986 56 77.3 108.5 2009 84 138 154.5
1987 62.5 71.4 84.7 2010 59.8 75.5 84
1988 51.4 60.8 78.2 2011 58.5 89 92.2
1989 42.6 77 84.1 2012 56 91 95.2
1990 55 76.7 89.9 2013 49.6 70.9 79.5
1991 59.7 62.1 71.7 2014 54 80.2 80.2
1993 66.5 78.6 78.6 2015 36.7 47.1 79
1994 76.4 76.6 91.2
Bahir Dar New
Angerguten Year Rainfall depth having a duration of
Rainfall depth having a duration of 1-day 2-days 3-days
Year
1-day 2-days 3-days 2003 39 85.7 101.2
1986 125.0 131.7 134 2004 77.5 137.1 163.1
1987 60.0 2005 87.1 117.8 136.3
1988 50.5 80.5 107.5 2006 85.7 82 94.5
1989 50.0 79.1 122.7 2007 74.1 88.8 98.7
1990 41.6 73.3 99.9 2008 68.3 90.2 102.4
2006 27.9 53 57.1 2009 64.5 82 97.4
2009 56.0 96 124 2010 58.1 79.4 91.5
2010 51.4 73.8 73.9 2011 72.8 128.7 161.3
2011 43.0 73 97 2012 96.7
2013 86.4 98.6 110.4
2014 48.2 87 99.4
2015 46.4 83.6 99.6

AAiT - 91 - BY:ABENEZER E.
Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Ayehu Baco
Rainfall depth having a duration of Rainfall depth having a duration of
Year Year
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1990 47 74 79.1 1974 40 48.6 55.4
1992 40.8 69.5 73.3 1975 52.7 69.3 84.8
1993 35.3 52.5 66.9 1976 62.3 84.6 88.5
1994 39.6 56.7 63 1977 39.5 49.6 70.5
1995 44 51.6 66.1 1978 60.6 66.4 71.8
1996 81.1 90.8 125.8 1979 70.8 82.6 94.2
1997 58.4 102.2 138.8 1980 49.4 58.5 58.5
1998 58.3 66.7 83.9 1981 41.7 70.1 76.9
1999 47 56.3 68.8 1982 21.6 23 23
2000 81.2 1983 50 62 62.6
2001 106.4 111.7 111.7 1984 44.5 52 63
2002 33.6 45.4 56.8 1985 65.4 66 66.4
2003 39.5 68.1 68.6 1986 57.5 65.5 104.6
2004 45 50 56.4 1987 50 51.6 88.9
2005 71.9 84.6 92.1 1988 44 50.4 65.8
2006 42.1 51.5 61.6 1989 45.4 55.5 82.5
2007 75 84.5 86.2 1990 50.5 60 74.8
2008 44.6 48.6 56.3 1991 63.4 71.4 92
2009 64.2 69.6 76.5 1992 52.4
2010 39.8 41.3 45.9 1993 66.8 72.4 79.9
2011 50.5 52 59.3 1994 54.1 98.4 111.5
2012 69 89.9 101.7 1995 50.2 70.6 80.4
2013 57.8 65.8 71.5 1996 40.7 49.9 56
2014 31.5 53.3 65.4 1997 69 76.3 90.3
2015 70.7 89.9 101.7 1998 79.3 93.1 96.5
1999 80.4 82.4 87.8
Finoteselam 2000 48.2 76.9 81.1
Rainfall depth having a duration of 2001 66.1 85 121
Year
1-day 2-days 3-days 2002 93 109.2 110.4
1993 54 71.5 88.1 2003 60.5 84.8 115
1994 43.8 65.3 65.3 2004 40.2 75.2 107.5
1995 53 69.7 74.3 2005 40.5 80.9 109.2
1996 40 71.5 86.3 2006 34.5 60.8 76.9
1997 34.7 53.5 70.5 2007 54.9 70.1 81.1
2006 49.7 64.8 69.5 2008 55.5 70.7 83.9
2007 36 52.4 75.6 2009 36.7 48.5 58.3
2008 59.7 69.8 78.1 2010 54.6 62.4 64.3
2009 70 82.3 102.1 2011 42.2 57.9 71
2010 58.5 76.5 89 2013 66.6 82.8 97.1
2011 53.4 85.4 114.4 2014 46 62.5 93.2
2012 50.6 58 80
2014 54.6 64.4 78.3
2015 46.7 55.7 63.6

AAiT - 92 - BY:ABENEZER E.
Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Bambase Baro (Yaya-Hurum)

Rainfall depth having a Rainfall depth having a duration
Year duration of Year of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1972 45.8 1988 52.4 95.1 109.3
1973 58.2 1989 47.4 64.4 73.7
1974 53.4 1990 74.3 88.5 100.8
1975 70.8 1991 56 68.9 76.9
1976 47.3 1992 56.8 62.5 85.6
1977 41.3 1993 61.8 104.3 105.2
1978 62.9 1994 70.4 77.8 84.9
1979 54.5 1995 42 54.5 62
1980 79.3 1996 67.1 67.3 70.7
1981 57.8 1997 40.2 55.1 67.1
1982 61 1998 35.3 65.5 98
1983 93.1 1999 45.3 63 92.6
1984 37 2000 38.1 52.6 74.6
1985 150 2001 48.6 70.7 81.4
1986 49.8 67.8 73.2 2002 66 79.4 79.4
1987 60.2 77.8 102 2003 51.4 71.2 75.5
1988 46.8 88.8 128.4 2004 54.6 76.2 94.5
1989 60.5 79 114 2006 68.1 89 105.4
1994 171.1 171.1 177 2007 45 79.1 91.2
1995 60.8 60.8 63.2 2008 36.4 66.1 79.7
1996 50.5 77.4 94.2 2009 56.7 79.2 94
1997 60.5 88.3 119.1 2012 48.9 79 93
2005 55 55 68.8 2014 55.1 69.7 93
2006 110.4 64.5 74.6 2015 55.5 79 107
2007 49.7 64.9 74.6
2008 54.5 70.9 96.4
2010 50.6 63.2 88.8
2014 53.4 53.4 78.2

AAiT - 93 - BY:ABENEZER E.
Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Bedele
Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of ….Con Bedele
1-day 2-days 3-days 2007 83.5 97.5 97.5
1967 56.1 2008 63 100 100.5
1968 53 2009 58.5 86 97.5
1969 47.1 2010 75.3 123.3 127.3
1970 47 2012 60 79.8 98
1971 64 2013 77.5 78.8 107
1972 57 2014 51 70.3 80
1973 70 2015 48.3 66 80.5
1975 35.9
1976 53.3 Bullen
Rainfall depth having a duration
1977 46 Year of
1978 36.4 1-day 2-days 3-days
1979 47.1 1988 76.6 87 108.5
1980 47.8 87 87 1992 80.2 81.2 85.3
1981 45 74 74 1997 54 73.8 97.2
1983 45.6 72.9 105.3 1998 85.2 101.4 107.9
1984 50.9 68 102.5 1999 68.2 72.4 135
1985 50 79.4 106 2000 72.1 79.3 89
1986 51.7 67.7 73.1 2001 54.8 90.7 94.4
1987 62.2 96.7 111.7 2002 68.8 75.4 77.2
1988 64.6 88.9 106.2 2003 115.7 116.5 132.6
1989 58.4 76.5 98.2 2004 78.8 105.7 113
1990 53.2 79.9 86.5 2005 50.8 71.9 86.9
1991 46.8 78.4 91 2006 70.9 79.9 115.1
1992 49.5 62 78.5 2007 75.1 94.4 114
1993 56 71 102 2008 79 100.7 110.8
1994 39 57.9 76.4 2009 68.5 71.2 71.7
1995 50.1 66 92.5 2010 60.8 79.3 95.7
1996 40 68.1 94.1 2011 67.1 74.3 110.5
1997 61 80.3 101.6 2012 76.5 97.4 106.4
1998 60.1 68.9 70.7 2013 66.4 111.3 113.6
1999 104.5 154.7 172.7 2014 86.9 86.9 112.9
2000 63.5 66.2 84.3 2015 54 79.5 91.1
2001 63 99.5 119
2002 47.9 58.9 74.3
2003 69 91.8 111.8
2004 57 82 106
2005 55 82.8 110
2006 50 85.5 93.8

AAiT - 94 - BY:ABENEZER E.
Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Chagni Chewahit
Rainfall depth having a duration Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of Year of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1986 42.6 55.8 72.7 1987 36.3 50.9 51.3
1987 48.2 1988 46 59.6 82.5
1988 64 80.4 102.2 1989 57 64.1 67.7
1989 75.2 101.4 113.5 1990 47.4 62.9 67
1990 69.8 82.3 112.6 1991 63.5 72.3 81.1
1992 99.4 118.8 123.4 1992 72.9 73.2 85.3
1998 72.6 91.3 110.9 1993 50.7 77.8 77.8
1999 56.1 78.2 90.9 1994 54.8 60.1 64.5
2000 56.8 66.4 84.4 1995 48 50.6 65
2001 59.4 98.8 106 1996 56.5 63 70.7
2002 40.4 63.5 71 1997 48 58.6 78.4
2003 53 66.2 102.8 1998 43.8 52.4 58.5
2004 89.6 118.6 126 1999 40.9 54.4 54.4
2005 61.2 107.3 140.3 2000 60.4 72.9 82.5
2006 74.4 87 94.1 2001 42.7 70.4 88.1
2007 82.6 97.5 120.3 2002 43.1 51.7 64
2008 224.2 228.7 233 2003 34.3 50.4 53.5
2009 47.8 58 76.9 2004 38.8 62.4 72.6
2010 57 66 82.7 2005 48.4 71.8 86.2
2011 59.4 83.4 89.6 2006 69.4 97 101.4
2012 56.4 69.3 91.1 2007 45.3 62.3 65.8
2013 62.3 93.8 126.2 2008 36.5 57.2 67.9
2014 87.6 2009 39 54.1 61
2015 90.2 2010 70 70.5 86.9
2011 40.1 54.2 58.1
2012 99.1 128.8 152.3
2013 92.5 123 143.7
2014 34.9 52.1 61
2015 44 52.3 52.4

AAiT - 95 - BY:ABENEZER E.
Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Chira Chora
Rainfall depth having a duration Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of Year of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1986 52 75.9 81.1 1988 52.4 65 83
1987 46.7 63.9 89.2 1989 47.4 99.9 122
1988 62.5 69.5 85.5 1990 74.3 77.4 103.1
1989 40 72.2 84.6 1991 56 68.1 72.6
1990 70 100 101.5 1992 56.8 85 98.4
1991 70.3 89.6 120.1 1993 61.8 98.7 113.2
1992 36.1 60.8 66.8 1994 70.4 58.3 67.6
1993 44.5 76.3 86.3 1995 42 59 79.2
1994 54.3 76.7 88.9 1996 67.1 66.5 81.9
1995 40.1 61.5 63.3 1997 40.2 89 108.1
1996 70 78.9 97.1 1998 35.3 58.9 76.9
1997 70.5 83.1 83.1 1999 45.3 70.4 78.2
1998 55 59 84.1 2000 38.1
1999 50.8 58.7 61.3 2001 48.6
2000 44.5 66.9 74.9 2002 66
2001 54.5 73 87.5 2003 51.4
2002 40 49.3 65 2004 54.6
2003 47 65.7 92.8 2006 68.1
2004 50.3 84.7 89.8 2007 45
2005 38 52.2 63.4 2008 36.4
2006 45.6 72.5 107.4 2009 56.7
2007 40 61.3 66.9 2012 48.9
2009 50.2 78.5 88.7 2014 55.1
2010 48.6 50.4 66.2 2015 55.5
2012 57.6 75.4 83
2013 48 53.3 65.9
2014 44.7 63.4 75.2
2015 45.4 59.1 61.6

AAiT - 96 - BY:ABENEZER E.
Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Combolcha Dangila
Rainfall depth having a duration of Rainfall depth having a duration of
Year Year
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1978 48.9 1955 41 49 68
1979 56.4 1956 34 50 57
1980 38 1957 51 87 115
1981 62.3 1959 55 75 98
1982 58 1960 57 91 100
1983 82.8 1961 39 51 66
1984 49.6 1962 43 61 84
1985 62.4 1963 58 81.5 117.4
1986 42.8 59.7 80.5 1964 62 91 119
1987 50.5 73.8 99.2 1965 48.5 76.9 96.9
1988 67.9 99.2 109.1 1966 58.2 75.2 82.9
1989 74.8 116.2 129.2 1967 34 68 75.2
1990 59 60.7 75.2 1968 53.5 53.5 68.5
1991 42.2 45.9 50.4 1974 65.1 73.3 87.5
1992 52.4 61.7 71.9 1975 50.3 84.5 112
1993 50.7 65.7 79.8 1976 51.4 95.3 110.9
1994 58.5 78.1 104.1 1987 48 70 81.4
1995 38.7 53.8 64.2 1988 46 60.5 80.6
1996 42.7 79.8 80.3 1989 78.5 95.5 112.6
1997 54.3 64.8 75.6 1990 76.4 107.2 136.8
1998 68.4 86 123.5 1992 40 59 71.5
1999 61.2 98.2 110.2 1993 43.2 60.5 84.3
2000 50.6 65.2 92.5 1994 58.8 71.9 98.3
2001 71.6 93.1 99.8 1995 38.2 57.2 66.4
2002 64.4 112.6 112.7 1996 47.2 67.2 87.5
2003 60.9 64 71.9 1997 48.5 58.3 70.1
2004 46.8 76.6 93.7 1998 46.7 63.9 80.4
2005 70.4 73.5 90.9 1999 68 85.8 100.5
2006 64.8 65 84.3 2000 67 81 108.5
2007 54.3 70.5 80.5 2001 42.5 51.5 79.5
2008 30.5 50.7 64.5 2002 39.5 49.5 65.8
2009 73.2 79.8 92.8 2003 45 78.7 117.7
2010 64.5 96.8 107.4 2004 59 98.8 102.8
2011 49.8 68.4 87.6 2005 59.8 95.3 102
2012 49.6 71.5 82.6 2006 61 88.6 96.1
2013 60.4 74 88 2007 37 63.5 77
2014 49.6 91.5 100.1 2008 58.5 89.5 120
2009 57.7 74.5 93.8
2010 53.8 67.3 83.6
2011 53.5 73.4 88
2012 53 96.1 109.1
2013 44.3 78.3 116
2014 57.5 86 109.3
2015 47 56.3 64.3

AAiT - 97 - BY:ABENEZER E.
Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Debark Debena
Rainfall depth having a duration Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of Year of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1955 53 1986 35.7 49.5 59.7
1956 60 1987 56.6 78.2 99.3
1957 50.5 1988 56.7 85.9 133.2
1963 41 1989 102 145.6 162
1984 33.4 1990 64.4 98.8 110.2
1987 48.6 1991 51.6 75 90.3
1988 72 1992 64.4 81.9 99.3
1989 123 221.8 235.3 1993 46.6 64 89.5
1992 63.1 1994 50.9 59.5 67.3
1993 24.2 35.7 38.1 1995 71.8 79.1 89.9
1994 36.8 52.5 70.5 1996 45.1 70 98.1
1995 27.3 44.1 58.7 1997 47.8 75.6 85.8
1996 124.8 131.5 146 1998 49.8 67.9 69.3
1997 38.9 55.3 63.3 1999 30.5 58.5 66.5
1998 94.6 98.4 98.6 2000 38.6 56.7 67.9
1999 47.9 58.5 61.8 2001 34.5 55.8 66.3
2000 57.2 70.3 117.5 2002 30.4 46.1 66.7
2001 53.8 79.9 90.7 2003 34.5 54.9 70.9
2002 60.7 80.5 96.5 2004 35.4 60.5 89
2003 44 58.5 87.5 2005 35 58.6 86
2004 52.5 56.2 58.3 2006 31.5 58.9 83.4
2005 122.1 142.1 232.3 2007 35 57 86
2006 151 233.2 285.7 2008 34 59.5 90.4
2007 87.3 147.6 166.6 2009 33 65.5 96.5
2008 84.5 105 112 2012 35
2009 43.7 64.7 90.2 2013 32.8 60.8 85.3
2010 37 66.5 75 2014 30 57.4 77.5
2011 105 115.2 191
2012 48 65 77.7
2013 135.5 191 228
2014 42.5 48 56
2015 42.7 56.7 57.7

AAiT - 98 - BY:ABENEZER E.
Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Debre Berhan Debre Elias

Rainfall depth having a duration Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of Year of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1986 46.5 48.8 69.4 1981 68 77.9 112.2
1987 34.1 41.3 61.9 1982 40.2 71.1 78.6
1988 46.6 67.1 78.3 1983 36 58.8 84.5
1989 30 49 67 1984 51.5 82.6 86.8
1990 53.3 56.3 66.2 1985 47.5 80.1 84.7
1991 45.6 66.9 87.5 1986 37.7 55.9 69.5
1992 58 87.3 97 1987 35.4 55.8 77.4
1993 41.2 69.3 105.7 1988 49.2 78.2 87.4
1994 60.2 75.2 93.8 1989 45 61 72.8
1995 40 60.3 63.4 1990 51 66.1 69.9
1996 41.5 57.2 74.7 1991 45.8 65 81.7
1997 31.6 50.3 63.5 1992 49.2 64.3 82.2
1998 40 53.2 77.7 1993 47.2 65 93.1
1999 45.7 57.6 71 1994 48.4 71.8 77.6
2000 43.8 74.8 104.9 1995 29.5 57.9 78.7
2001 38.2 62.3 70.3 2003 49 91.6 109.7
2002 40.6 54.4 69.8 2004 38.4 64.7 78.6
2003 47.8 63.1 82.8 2005 30.2 48.3 54.2
2004 45.6 64.5 67.9 2006 36.8 65.2 82.2
2005 46.2 61.8 63.3
2006 43.5 70.7 96.3
2007 57.2 69.2 78
2008 57 69.7 83.6
2009 59.5 84.9 92.7
2010 60 87.3 93.8
2011 84.3 109.9 145.2
2012 41 58 85
2013 34.5 43.5 53.3
2014 38.4 60.6 69.2
2015 63.2 66.6 74.6

AAiT - 99 - BY:ABENEZER E.
Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Debre Tabor
Rainfall depth having a duration of ….Con. Debre Tabor
Year
1-day 2-days 3-days 2006 60 60 81.2
1951 53.4 77.1 97.3 2007 55.5 55.5 65.9
1952 53.6 71.4 84.4 2008 59.5 59.5 77.5
1953 51.2 78 103.6 2009 49.4 49.4 51.1
1954 44 75 105 2010 42 42 73
1956 44.5 80 116 2013 115 115 116
1957 75 87 109 2014 66.2 66.2 84.9
1958 58 76 101 2015 37 39.4 48.5
1959 47 73 89 2011 60.2 60.2 80.8
1960 52 85 112 2012 44.2 44.2 74.7
1961 67 92 113.5
1968 58 85 101 Dedessa
1969 62 75 86 Rainfall depth having a duration of
Year
1974 54.5 72.9 109.5 1-day 2-days 3-days
1975 70.9 90.4 91.3 1986 71.3
1976 63.8 72.7 93.3 1987 97.5
1977 71.2 82.3 99.2 1988 66.5 65.2 79.1
1978 42.5 75.8 108.4 1989 68 48 61.2
1979 54 82.3 94.9 1990 75.5 89.4 109.4
1980 45 65.9 93.1 1991 53.7
1981 45.8 74.1 96.1 1992 80
1982 55 74.5 100.8 1993 40
1983 61 98.8 128.3 1994 57 45.6 52.2
1984 62.1 79 84 1995 56 101.9 105.4
1985 66 93 99 1996 64.5 57.2 76.8
1986 58 83.3 92.3 1997 42.4 69.9 83.2
1987 42.3 59.5 92.1 1998 78 66.2 70.9
1988 50.6 1999 64.1 68.6 69.2
1989 47 47 73.7 2000 116.6 75.1 83.2
1992 35.5 35.5 55.5 2001 55.1 61.1 81.1
1993 45.1 45.1 61 2002 60.6 52.1 67.4
1994 69.9 69.9 96.3 2003 103 84.2 107.2
1995 57.4 57.4 76 2004 85.9 88.3 90
1996 44.6 44.6 75.8 2005 46.5 90.3 90.3
1997 104.3 104.3 113.6 2006 79.3 59.8 79.2
1998 67.7 67.7 84.2 2007 43 40.8 44.1
1999 55.5 55.5 71.9 2008 99 71.9 106.4
2000 47.3 47.3 69.2 2009 74 91.1 93.6
2001 62.7 62.7 64.7 2010 80 57.2 61
2002 81.3 81.3 86.8 2011 60.2
2003 80.6 80.6 102 2014 83 66.6 74.3
2004 42 42 58.8 2015 40.5 53.8 64.3
2005 69.4 69.4 74

AAiT - 100 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Debre Work Dedessa river (Dildy)

Rainfall depth having a duration Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of Year of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1970 49 82.7 93 1986 54.4 78.9 95.9
1975 53.1 67.4 80.6 1987 80 98.5 98.5
1976 46.7 70.9 93.5 1988 57.5 90.7 101.3
1977 45.8 56.9 78.9 1989 88.6 100.5 124.6
1978 66 111.6 154.2 1990 60.4 87.2 111.5
1979 59.1 78.2 99.7 1994 60.4 91.4 135.9
1980 42.4 49.4 69.9 1995 65.3 81.7 92.2
1981 39.6 64 83.5 1996 73.4 83.4 109.9
1983 47.7 59.8 90.5 1997 56.5 75 80.4
1984 42.3 71.2 71.2 1998 75.3 109.5 134.3
1985 46.3 71 95.8 1999 67.4 69.3 80.4
1986 38 58.9 59.6 2000 56.8 65.2 109.8
1987 39.5 44.2 59.5 2001 48.5 66.2 72.3
1988 78.5 89.4 131.8 2002 42.3 59.8 66.1
1989 42.4 50.2 55.6 2003 51.1 52.6 55.8
1990 36.4 47.4 48.5 2004 67.4 80 91.6
1992 47.1 49.9 64.9 2005 51.7 61.7 75.9
1993 58.1 60.9 79.2 2006 54.3 59 71.1
1994 53.4 61.3 68.5 2007 48.6 91.1 94.5
1995 82.2 84.3 100 2008 40.1 62.8 85.1
1996 51.1 71 71 2010 80 91.2 104.2
1997 41 54.2 62.7 2012 35.6 90.7 97.4
1998 52.4 54.4 69.6 2015 55.1 71.1 88.2
1999 29.1 45 56
2000 65.1 93.8 109.2
2001 45 76.4 104.9
2002 45 75 100.8
2003 46.2 73.5 75.3
2004 61.6 84.6 99.1
2005 34 54 64.4
2007 57 57 74.4
2008 36 42.8 56
2009 45 60 82.5
2010 48.5 72 86.3
2011 44 66.5 70.5
2012 37.7 50.7 60.4
2013 53.5 63.5 96.8
2014 46 52 55
2015 39 43 43.2

AAiT - 101 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Dejen Deke Istifanos

Rainfall depth having a duration Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of Year of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1980 55.8 62.7 80.7 1978 62.4
1981 52 82 106.7 1979 141
1983 63.4 81.7 99 1981 41.5
1984 54.5 67.9 81.4 1982 50.3
1985 50.3 55.4 60.2 1983 50.8
1986 61.7 81.9 100.8 1984 95
1987 55.3 68.8 69.1 1985 60.5
1988 63.6 81 96.5 1986 80.4 101 141.8
1989 44.3 72.1 101 1987 80 91.3 121.5
1990 48.5 70.7 94.5 1988 70.8 111.2 141.4
1991 41.1 64.6 84.5 1989 70.9 101.5 141.4
1992 57.5 64.2 64.2 1990 60.8 100.7 131.5
1993 44.8 65.2 71.4 1991 80.2 120.3 151.2
1994 65 87.6 103.4 1992 70.9 121.1 141.2
1995 103.4 112.7 125.7 1993 80.7 111.1 152
1996 104.6 114.9 129 1994 70.5 100.8 111.9
1997 78.5 87.9 104.1 1995 70 90.5 100.7
1998 76.1 115.8 126 1996 50.8 71.3 100.7
1999 89.8 124.6 177.1 1997 68 123 123
2000 64.5 93.3 109.1 1998 134 159.7 174.4
2001 72.1 105.2 130.1 1999 66 90.9 119.4
2002 64.5 97.9 126.6 2000 56.5 77.6 118.3
2003 56.7 64.8 67.4 2001 52.5 93.3 125
2004 37.2 57.5 65.9 2002 86 110.5 131.5
2005 44.5 66.5 90.9 2003 80 82.6 98.4
2006 58.1 82.3 110.4 2004 64.5 78.1 112.3
2007 43.7 60.5 83.3 2005 91 138 165.3
2008 69.3 90.1 128.6 2006 67 106 124
2009 40.9 66.9 79 2007 112.2 122.2 122.2
2010 51.1 66 72.1 2008 235.2 260.2 271.4
2011 71.8 82.9 110.3 2009 51.2 72.2 97.4
2012 49.5 50.1 60.2 2010 45.8 66.9 97
2013 49.2 62.8 70.4 2012 71.4 96.5 111.9
2014 49.4 79.1 79.1 2013 60.5 97.7 100.2
2015 61.9 50.8 67.4 2014 150.9

AAiT - 102 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Dembecha
Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of ….Con Dembecha
1-day 2-days 3-days 2010 59.7 75.6 102.6
1960 49 70 72 2011 43.1 79.2 114.6
1961 62 87 124 2012 41.5 49.4 55.9
1962 42 69 74 2014 52 67 81
1963 44 72 81 2015 44.5 53 63.7
1964 50 76 93
1965 48 60 75 Dengoro
Rainfall depth having a duration
56 77
1966 33 Year of
1967 45 55 69 1-day 2-days 3-days
1968 45 60 80 1986 161.7 187.7 210.8
1969 91 106 106 1987 114.3 144.3 204
1970 61 121 132 1988 93.3 122.4 148.2
1971 43 62 92 1989 90 98.4 122.6
1974 45.1 59 92.7 1990 70 92.5 117.1
1975 44.8 74.3 90.5 1991 88.9 94.6 125.5
1976 45 74 74 1992 73.6 102.2 141.9
1977 57 60 60 1993 60.5 90.9 93.9
1978 42 77 105 1994 165 231.5 267
1986 93.8 119.9 130.7 1995 54 86.5 115.9
1987 70 78.2 106.6 1996 92 116.2 131.8
1988 58.7 110.1 156.3 1997 66.3 84.6 115.8
1990 57.6 27.7 37.2 1998 66 82 82
1991 46.7 77 79.1 1999 90 94 108.4
1992 50 66.1 83.5 2000 119.7 139.9 150.2
1993 90.2 65 67.2 2001 48.9 67 83.2
1994 66.8 92.7 92.7 2002 71 84 108.6
1995 48.7 75.2 82.1 2003 68 88 105
1996 71.7 63 81 2004 71.2 121.2 131.2
1997 40 99.7 115.4 2005 88.5 147.8 166.3
1998 60 59.3 74.6 2006 74.5 148.5 148.9
1999 55.5 81.2 95.2 2007 55.4 73.8 92.2
2000 40 71 80.5 2008 81.2 115.1 130.1
2001 55.5 75 100 2014 70 117 132
2002 68.2 66.6 108.8
2003 48 79.2 87.9
2004 48 65.7 86.2
2005 83.5 67 77.5
2006 48.5 69.5 86.9
2007 43 51.2 76.1
2008 52.8 69.5 87
2009 54 66.7 79.1

AAiT - 103 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Derba Dimtu
Rainfall depth having a duration Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of Year of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1974 58.7 1986 47.7 76.6 81
1975 32.1 1987 49.5 84.7 107.4
1976 38 1988 52.5 66.9 76.8
1977 48 1989 59.9 65.5 80.3
1978 41.1 2000 54.4 96.5 120.6
1979 41.5 2001 51 100 132.7
1980 36 2002 46.6 90 101.6
1981 46.6 2003 44 82 91
1982 60.2 2004 40.8 69.9 98.9
1983 40.6 2005 40.8 78.9 83.4
1984 40 2006 40.5 68.8 61.3
1985 48.5 2007 50.6 80.6 91.5
1986 46 155.2 212.3 2009 48.6 85.6 92.5
1987 100 98.5 124.5 2010 38.8 55.6 65.9
1988 100 86.3 96.3 2012 44.8 44.8 47
1989 96.4 147.6 190.8 2013 63 66 79
1990 46.5 100.6 122.6 2014 50.4 75 102.7
1991 75.4 45.1 60.8 2015 50.6 80.6 90.1
1992 45.3 72.6 98.6
1993 49.2
1994 27.5 90.4 103.4
1995 31.7 89.9 125.4
1996 71.4 106.9 134.6
1997 52.6 101.2 160.5
1998 27 81.5 103.5
1999 26 85.2 103
2000 42 86 129
2001 41.3 109.1 134.9
2002 44 93.3 120.7
2003 36.4 87.6 105.8
2006 77.5 85.7 108.7
2007 45.8 88.5 99.9
2008 40.8 110.4 117.5
2010 50 109.5 116.5
2013 49.8 143.9 212.3
2014 36.9 110.2 121.8

AAiT - 104 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Enjabara
Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of ….Con Enjabara
1-day 2-days 3-days 2005 58.4 81.7 112.3
1954 63.2 116.2 123.9 2006 70.3 85.7 108.7
1956 45 65 79 2007 60 88.5 99.9
1957 49 91 112 2008 79.4 110.4 117.5
1958 88.7 119.2 146.2 2009 98.4 155.2 178.4
1959 50 93 105 2010 59.5 109.5 116.5
1960 61 67 94 2011 89.9 108.6 132.3
1961 50 87 99 2012 62.8
1963 60 69 113 2013 75.4 143.9 212.3
1964 50 86 116 2014 75.9 110.2 121.8
1965 44.2 82.4 105.6 2015 68.8 89.2 120.3
1966 61.4 97.8 124.1
1967 76.4 102.6 113 Enango
Rainfall depth having a duration
79.6 96
1968 66.4 Year of
1969 53.4 86.6 120 1-day 2-days 3-days
1970 80 100 110.3 1986 58.4 97.2 112.5
1974 43.4 81.7 97.9 1987 59 82.6 103.6
1982 48 67.2 96.6 1988 40.9 69.6 92.6
1983 79 101.7 129.8 1989 49.5 69.9 81.8
1984 40 66.5 92.1 1990 65.4 93.5 122.9
1985 58 88.7 113.7 1994 49.3 67.7 85.1
1986 44.8 66.8 86.9 1995 81.1 94.3 137
1987 68.6 98.5 124.5 1996 52.8 60.4 83.8
1988 46 86.3 96.3 1997 39.8 70.9 74.2
1989 79.2 147.6 190.8 1998 83.2 109.3 113.5
1990 53.9 100.6 122.6 1999 41.3 76.7 95.6
1991 40.6 45.1 60.8 2000 45.7 63 92.3
1992 64 72.6 98.6 2001 45.3 61.6 76
1993 72.2 90.4 134.3 2002 68.6 77.7 125.5
1994 55.9 79.2 103.4 2003 100.8 113.6 123.4
1995 62.7 89.9 125.4 2004 52.8 66.3 95.3
1996 65.5 106.9 134.6 2006 69.7 93.8 100
1997 87 101.2 160.5 2007 50.4 63.1 81.7
1998 53.6 81.5 103.5 2008 63.6 75.7 96.7
1999 68.7 85.2 103 2009 41 73.3 102
2000 53.1 86 129 2010 48.7 80.5 109.2
2001 90.4 109.1 134.9 2014 69.7 93.5 99.7
2002 64.1 93.3 120.7
2003 51.4 87.6 105.8
2004 73.6 91.7 132.6

AAiT - 105 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Fiche
Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of ….Con Fiche
1-day 2-days 3-days 2000 51.7 72.8 102.8
1954 43 78.5 120.5 2001 44.5 75.9 92.1
1955 58 111 150 2002 90.9 91.3 99.2
1956 50 96 123 2003 44.4 68 75.6
1957 50 92 108 2004 53.8 60.9 68.4
1958 42 84 91 2005 42.8 58.3 73.1
1959 34 66.5 78 2006 48.7 73.7 94.5
1968 65 87.2 118.2 2007 37.6 57.5 70.8
1969 53.8 82.5 109.4 2008 51.1 70.1 93.3
1970 46.3 68.5 93.5 2009 56.4 80 92.6
1972 34.3 65.4 86.7 2010 55.3 83.9 109.1
1973 73.2 88.8 102.5 2011 61.3 78.5 94.4
1974 78.9 111.9 137.8 2012 44.3 61.7 86.1
1975 39 69.2 86.5 2013 45.6 66.7 89.3
1976 54.9 68 82.6 2014 56.7 93.4 117.7
1977 89 115.6 132.2 2015 38.1 67.2 67.7
1979 47 77 99.5
1980 69.4 120.9 143.4 Maligawa
Rainfall depth having a duration
71.8 92.6
1981 64.4 Year of
1982 60.8 76.8 93.3 1-day 2-days 3-days
1984 45.2 45.2 68.2 1987 80.2 98.8 110.8
1985 42.2 49.6 68 1988 70.9 86.1 101.7
1986 36 55.6 62.2 1989 56.3 82 100
1987 75 76.2 84.9 1990 55.4 55.4 82.4
1988 47.7 61.1 66.6 1991 53.4 60.4 77.2
1989 35.6 60.4 73.3 1992 59.1 78.9 106.1
1990 51.9 72.3 86.6 1993 73.8 87 111.3
1991 41.3 42.7 48.5 1994 50.2 76.3 94.6
1992 39.8 60.7 86 1995 37.3 45.6 53.1
1993 37.6 52.5 73 1996 50.4 81 124.4
1994 58.1 63.4 95.1 2001 35.2 62.5 80.5
1995 60 73.3 93.6 2004 39.1 71.2 80.9
1996 82.5 2005 50.7 68.2 79.2
1997 40.9 61.9 74.3 2006 49.6 69.1 69.1
1998 37 19.4 30.3 2007 49.2 71.2 80.9
1999 56.4 102.8 115.7 2010 41.7 67.9 67.9
2013 46.3 63.7 89.7

AAiT - 106 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Felege Berhan Filiklik

Rainfall depth having a duration Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of Year of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1956 66 79 125.5 1978 50.6
1957 41 80 95 1979 40
1958 53 75 75 1980 37.4
1959 37 1982 45.9
1980 40.8 59 77.1 1983 29.3
1981 54.2 60.6 71.4 1984 72.4
1983 80.3 139.6 148.5 1985 31.5
1984 61.6 121.6 126 1986 59.5 68 78.9
1985 75.9 124.3 139.3 1987 35 47.3 49.3
1986 81.3 135.1 184.1 1988 33.5 51.6 80.1
1987 43.5 49.8 58 1989 37.5 59.7 77.8
1988 43.3 67.6 86.2 1990 34 44.9 59.3
1989 68.8 86.2 115.7 1991 39 48.3 65.5
1990 65.5 93.6 128.9 1992 53.2 63.4 76.8
1991 66.6 67.3 90.6 1993 52.9 88.6 101.4
1992 110.7 110.7 111.5 1994 42.3 81.2 116.8
1993 45 82 101.6 1995 29.9 49.2 75
1994 65.5 75.3 111.5 1996 42.7 77.3 104.8
1995 98.4 108 112.6 1997 61.2 82.4 101.9
1996 51 75 83 1998 35.6 60.5 71.3
1997 83 92 98.1 1999 42.3
1998 50 86.6 104 2000 45.2 70.8 86.8
1999 47.2 59.3 83 2001 36.5 56.7 75.5
2000 39.8 59.8 76.3 2002 29 43.2 49.9
2001 50.8 65.7 83.4 2003 42.3 62.5 78.3
2002 40.8 63.2 72.6 2004 28.8 40.2 54
2003 59.7 79.2 90.2 2005 41 73.6 89.4
2004 71.4 77.7 108.1 2006 41.3 59.2 82.8
2005 44 51 72 2007 26 43.7 64.8
2006 42 58.4 70.7 2008 42 54 72
2007 42 78.4 114.4 2010 23.5 41.9 58.9
2008 48 73.4 86.8 2011 46.4 66.7 82.4
2009 41 58.6 76.4 2012 20.6 31 40.3
2010 75.8 96.7 107 2013 22.4 38.9 53.9
2011 63.5 91.8 102.3 2014 48.2 63.8 74.1
2012 73 82.6 116.6 2015 44.5 55.5 72
2013 60.6 80.6 107
2014 76 79.3 95.5
2015 53.4 66.4 74.8

AAiT - 107 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Gatira Gembe
Rainfall depth having a duration Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of Year of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1986 55.8 100.8 116.3 1987 54.4 60.2 79.1
1987 50.8 69.8 80.3 1988 46.8 63.2 70.1
1988 80.5 139.5 165 1989 52.4 95.7 106.4
1989 58.6 96.5 127.9 1990 66.6 71.4 80.6
1990 70 88.3 104.3 1991 48.6 89.3 97.7
1991 58 92.7 107.4 1992 48.8 87.2 113.6
1992 35.5 55 65.3 1993 48.3 88 113.6
1993 44.8 54.9 79.4 1994 48.2 72.6 80.7
1994 54 78.4 89.9 1995 61.4 66.6 70.4
1995 59.6 79.6 86.6 1996 69.4 89 101.8
1996 47.8 79.7 105 1997 57.4 89.9 103.4
1997 48.7 67.7 72 1998 38.8 59.4 69.7
1998 57.8 92.8 124.1 1999 41.7 58.2 70.7
1999 55.3 89.3 89.3 2000 59.4 78.2 89.4
2000 49.3 55.5 81.2 2003 45.2 50.5 75.5
2001 56.8 70.1 96.4 2004 49.0 56.6 79.3
2002 66.6 78.6 110 2005 40.2 62 72.2
2003 55.5 65 75.7 2006 42.4 69 95.8
2004 45 61.1 80 2007 43.3 57.9 69
2005 68 76.7 104.4 2009 43.1 78.8 83.1
2006 45.2 74.5 90.5 2010 102.3 105.9 127.3
2007 46 68 71.8 2012 54.7 55.9 67.9
2008 39.3 64.6 71 2013 47.5 77.1 93.9
2009 59.6 62.8 82.3
2010 47.8 54 63.5
2012 48.2 56 64.5
2013 59.3 93.9 98.5
2014 46.5 71.9 95.2
2014 42 76.3 95.2
2015 42.3 74.7 97.1

AAiT - 108 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Gondar
Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of ….Con Gondar
1-day 2-days 3-days 1995 30.9 51.9 72.7
1952 50 63.9 70.7 1996 45.5 55.2 69.4
1953 62.3 78.8 106.3 1997 72.3 92.5 100.9
1954 58.6 64.2 81.1 1998 40.7 51.9 69
1955 47.8 76.7 89.9 1999 48 78.2 81
1956 31 48.5 61.7 2000 58.3 60.3 65.1
1957 47 55.7 70.5 2001 41 66.7 76.5
1958 46.5 61.9 79.3 2002 60.2 91.7 112.5
1959 75.8 94.8 105.2 2003 69.4 91.3 100.6
1961 59 86 97 2004 51.1 63.3 80.3
1964 59.2 94.6 114.6 2005 45.3 66.4 90.1
1965 48.2 64.3 74.7 2006 70.5 90.6 112.1
1966 42.1 44.4 61.3
1967 82 86.8 89 Jeldu
Rainfall depth having a duration
59.5 68.7
1968 45 Year of
1969 51.9 63.6 87.7 1-day 2-days 3-days
1970 57.1 62.8 82.3 1987 46.6 58.1 68
1971 36 41.3 49.6 1988 55 61.3 80
1972 59.3 80.3 97 1989 38.7 53.8 60.1
1973 53.1 97.5 111 1990 62.8 75.3 83.9
1974 69.5 93.3 111.5 1991 46.3 70.7 99.3
1975 65 87.3 110.1 1992 32.2 58.4 77.7
1976 65.4 73.2 82.2 1995 42.9 53.4 96.1
1977 63.5 80.5 107.8 1996 49.4 60.8 79.4
1978 50.3 55.5 57.2 1997 45 46.5 59.8
1979 44 60.6 68.4 1998 42.9 52.7 65.1
1980 54.3 83.5 83.5 1999 34.6 51 70.6
1981 30 47.9 55.9 2000 33.6 44.9 56.4
1982 34.3 47.6 58.9 2001 46.3 65.3 80.8
1983 65.4 78.2 91.7 2002 42.6 45.1 60.6
1984 43.9 56.4 73.9 2003 35.4 55.6 87.6
1985 47.8 49.8 73.5 2004 27.2 49.5 71.9
1986 47.1 57.1 71.6 2006 52.8 62.2 85.2
1987 41.3 50.7 59.9 2007 39 57.5 60.7
1988 51.3 57.6 63.3 2010 28 52.5 58
1989 47.9 69.6 75.9 2011 29.5 44.1 50.1
1990 63 78.5 88.1 2012 51.4 57.1 70.8
1991 52.8 63.8 69.9 2013 37.5 50.3 63.4
1992 36.8 51.4 62.3 2014 45.6 58.7 58.8
1993 54.3 57.3 61.6 2015 31.2 32.2 50.4
1994 40.1 53.5 73.3

AAiT - 109 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Gohatsion Gundo Woin

Rainfall depth having a duration Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of Year of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1972 81.9 1979 59.1 79.1 79.7
1973 40.6 1980 67.8 97.7 111.3
1974 52 1981 53.7 68.7 89.9
1977 57.6 1982 32.3 46.8 52.3
1978 45.9 1983 51.8 81 92.3
1979 53.2 1984 32.2 51.7 67.1
1980 44 1985 83.5 93.5 120
1981 57 1986 57.2 71.4 88.6
1982 48.5 1987 53.7 60.5 70.5
1983 56.3 1988 51 74.3 94.6
1984 50 1989 57.5 94 101.3
1985 56.2 1990 84.4 90.6 98.9
1986 60.3 76.4 82.4 1991 79.3 87.2 144.7
1987 45 66.2 76.3 1992 51.7 67.7 81.1
1988 82.3 87.3 94.3 1993 68.2 96.8 121.1
1989 59 86.4 90.6 1994 66.5 77.3 99.9
1990 43.3 52 61.4 1995 91.6 111.4 122.6
1991 42.3 63.4 83.2 1996 63.3 105.6 140.1
1992 37.3 63.3 72.5 1997 47.3 79.2 85.4
1993 84.3 99.5 134.7 1998 62.6 95.9 129.5
1994 47.3 54.5 67.7 1999 57.4 65.3 77.2
1995 42.3 66.6 76.7 2000 58.3 63.5 98.1
1996 47.4 77.2 80.3 2001 37.2 73.4 89.4
1997 60.2 72.5 87.8 2002 38.9 64.6 81.4
1998 85.2 93.5 97.8 2003 72.8 91.2 129.8
1999 57.2 110.5 130.5 2004 62.5 85.7 120.7
2000 51.5 55.7 73.4 2005 46.4 76.1 109.8
2001 45 54 76.7 2006 73.6 107.9 160.4
2002 45 45.3 59.6 2007 133
2003 53 72 88.4 2008 48
2004 48.4 61.4 68.7 2009 74.3
2005 67.5 80 81.2 2010 70.5
2006 54.2 69.5 80.5 2011 41.2
2007 48 73.3 80.8 2012 33.6
2008 72.5 83.2 132.7 2013 51.9
2009 29.5 45.5 57 2014 52.9
2010 49.5 48.7 61 2015 34.2
2011 62 85.2 119.1
2012 49.2 66.5 83
2013 55.3 106.9 121.2
2014 53.5 72.4 81.3
2015 57.1 71.7 81.2

AAiT - 110 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Gidayana
Rainfall depth having a duration of ….Con Gorgora
Year
1-day 2-days 3-days 1998 56.2 76.8 96.1
1986 96.9 117.5 144 1999 40.9 56.1 69.6
1987 86.5 102.6 114.4 2000 65.8 82.4 87.6
1988 87.9 92.4 94 2001 38.6 61.7 83
1989 48.7 55.5 72.8 2002 50.1 54.8 57.8
1990 76.4 98.6 132.2 2003 53.8 76.1 85.1
1991 37.8 40.6 48.7 2004 54.9 72.2 76.8
1992 40.8 56.8 71.4 2005 44.5 71 75.3
1993 71.6 77.2 87.3 2006 54.2 71.2 76.8
1994 72.9 100 128.6 2007 55.4 70.6 88.9
1995 64.5 90.1 103.3 2008 40.1 47.2 57.4
1996 58.7 70.8 78.6 2009 44.5 61.7 79.7
1997 69 113.5 120.2 2010 46.5 62.9 89.4
1998 96.5 127.7 139.7 2011 39 55.9 76
1999 66.3 88.8 112.3 2012 50 73.5 81.5
2000 83.5 88.2 90.7 2013 49.3 68.6 68.6
2001 72.4 84.6 100.4 2014 36.4 52.5 61
2002 64.1 70.2 96.2 2015 76.2 95.9 101.1
2003 74 85.3 95.8 GimijabetMariam
2004 65.6 93.8 106.3 Rainfall depth having a duration of
Year
2005 91 92.2 105.4 1-day 2-days 3-days
2006 70 82 88.7 1959 37 39 47
2007 88.8 94.4 124.3 1988 75.4 96.9 111
2008 67.8 74.3 98.5 1989 44.3 79.3 99.6
2009 64.8 92.3 92.3 1990 66.7 105.1 126.7
2010 63.5 76.5 117.5 1991 66.6 130.5 178.7
2011 59 108.3 130.6 1992 68.3 104.1 109.5
2014 60.2 88.2 109 1993 55.5 81.49 112.39
1994 64.2 69.7 93.1
Gorgora 1995 41.2 67.8 93
Rainfall depth having a duration of 1996 49.8 90.8 124.5
Year
1-day 2-days 3-days 1997 40.6 68.1 79.8
1985 31 1998 70.7 109.1 113.4
1986 28.6 1999 37.6 56.8 72.8
1987 44.4 46.5 51.9 2000 47.2 53.4 74.2
1988 55.5 105.7 113.5 2001 34.6 62.1 81.9
1989 37.5 54.5 63 2002 42.8 53.4 67.4
1990 35.4 2003 64.6 96.8 111.1
1992 41.3 53.3 77.2 2004 55.8 83.2 107.6
1993 60.5 79 82.5 2005 42.6 63.5 75.4
1994 50.5 45.3 54.9 2006 63.7 84.9 105.2
1995 65.7 65.7 71.8 2012 60.6 81.3 110.5
1996 65.6 89.4 111.8 2014 80.5 120 152
1997 40.5 64.2 87.7 2015 120.5 162.8 199.6

AAiT - 111 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Hamusit Jimma
Rainfall depth having a duration Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of Year of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1970 50 70 110 1986 45.3 56.3 58.6
1972 48 85 107 1987 52.9 70.1 72.8
1973 70 100 150.7 1988 59.3 94 101.3
1974 60 60 80 1989 41.6 59.3 83.2
1976 60.9 71.3 101.3 1990 36.3 60.4 67.8
1977 70 140 160 1991 57 77.2 85
1981 84 116 152 1992 55.4 65.7 83.2
1982 75.2 112.4 137.9 1993 46.2 52.8 76.8
1988 90.6 133.1 170.6 1994 60.7 86 97
1989 69.2 113.3 131.9 1995 47.8 58 72.2
1992 106.9 154.4 168.1 1996 48.8 66.8 78.6
1993 81.8 148.6 185.8 1997 69 96.3 104.3
1995 106.7 181.6 227.2 1998 62.5 69.5 76.7
1996 54.4 91.5 114.9 1999 49.9 51.4 58.9
1997 99.5 101.2 114.6 2000 50.5 56.3 96.7
1998 124.1 124.1 139.3 2001 56.2 88.5 103.5
1999 49 80 89.7 2002 42.5 58.8 67.7
2000 92 106.5 145 2003 42.6 51.8 76.3
2001 74.9 92.2 113 2004 46.2 59.3 68.8
2002 83.4 124 129.9 2005 60.9 103.1 122.2
2003 68.7 101.6 111.2 2006 44.5 53.2 67
2004 71.1 73.2 91 2007 44.6 55.8 75.8
2006 80.6 91.2 110.7 2008 62.3 69.3 82.6
2007 88.8 94.6 123.9 2009 69.7 86.1 126.9
2008 62.8 85.8 112 2010 74.6 81.2 122.4
2009 95 109.7 117 2011 65.7 97.1 115.3
2013 101.1 158.6 175.1 2012 54.9 59.4 78.1
2014 155 193 203 2013 33.4 41.2 54.9
2014 59.1 68.7 100.1
2015 45.4 68.7 81

AAiT - 112 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Kachise (Rs) Kone

Rainfall depth having a duration Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of Year of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1986 70.6 85.3 104.6 1986 76.7 124.5 156.2
1987 83.8 89.8 96.6 1987 58.4 73.9 86.9
1988 52 103.3 116.9 1988 60 98.8 142.3
1989 47.4 65 72.6 1989 81 89.4 96.5
1990 57.4 85.2 101.8 1990 99.1 99.1 99.1
1991 58.2 76.5 90.3 1991 45.4 89 102.4
1992 50.1 73.4 84.8 1992 63.2 63.2 102.2
1993 50 87.9 98.8 1993 70 96.5 108.6
1994 41.6 62.8 101 1994 77.2 101.2 113.6
1995 49.9 58.1 79.4 1995 48 71.2 88.2
1996 54.9 75.5 94.3 1996 60 73.1 73.3
1997 55.8 97.7 108.6 1997 60 62 75.6
1998 61.7 84 92.2 1998 95.2 149.4 149.4
1999 68.4 91.1 103.7 1999 66.4 121.4 155
2000 77.7 103.2 113 2000 65.5 78.5 89.3
2001 68.8 90.4 103.6 2001 59.7 72.8 81.8
2002 77.6 103.6 114.3 2002 46.7 73.8 74.5
2003 62.9 78.7 93.6 2003 57 72.5 87.4
2004 65.1 103.3 109 2004 60.5 96.6 111
2005 100 108.6 117.3 2005 51.5 61.9 97.4
2006 60.2 80.1 92.8 2006 68.2
2007 63 73.5 84.9 2007 66.9 80.5 95.4
2008 166.5 186.7 266.3 2008 52.3 76.9 109.1
2009 86.3 86.3 86.9 2009 58.4 88.2 104.5
2010 46.1 49.8 51.3 2012 78.8 134.2 182.1
2011 62 73 86.4 2013 81.9 129 150.4
2012 72.2 104.8 116.8 2015 79.8
2013 80 118.7 146.7
2014 77.2 87 99.6
2015 81.3 100.7 135.8

AAiT - 113 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Kelem Meda
Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of ….Cont Mukelemi
1-day 2-days 3-days 1999 53.5 75.5 85.9
1984 40 60 74.2 2000 71 85.7 92.7
1985 60 66 94 2001 64.8 72.5 92.6
1986 60 78.4 97 2002 74.2 79.5 79.6
1987 88.8 124.3 132.8 2003 65.7 87.9 108.1
1988 69 127 149 2004 55.4 86.8 123.9
1989 67.4 120.4 150.4 2005 60 80.3 89.8
1990 60.9 60.9 70 2006 80.3 88.4 95
1992 42.2 79.8 92.3 2007 60 81.8 92.8
1993 67.7 85.2 97.5 2008 37.2 47.3 56.4
1994 53.9 83.9 108
1995 68 78 110.2 Meshenti
Rainfall depth having a duration
1996 52.5 67 83.3 Year of
1997 34.2 58.5 81.8 1-day 2-days 3-days
1998 71 95 136 1988 49.8 71 78.5
1999 60 76.2 104 1989 83.2 88.7 92.7
2000 53.6 103.6 117.4 1990 63.4 69.4 81.5
2003 62.3 74 80.7 1991 60.3 79 101.9
2006 78.2 103.7 144 1992 73.5 88.5 88.5
2009 81.9 103.4 108.2 1993 59.3 67.4 88.4
2010 44.3 73.2 91.8 1994 50.1 63.1 70.7
2011 68.9 118.9 140.4 1995 45.9 52.4 71.2
1996 60.1 105.8 114.8
Mukelemi 1997 74 93.2 110.9
Rainfall depth having a duration
70.8 95.3
Year of 1998 57.9
1-day 2-days 3-days 1999 79 93.8 99.1
1987 60.9 70.5 102.4 2000 49.4 76.4 85.4
1988 69.5 95.9 112.4 2001 44.8 66.6 92.8
1989 62.5 80.2 109.6 2002 47.6 70.4 74.3
1990 48.1 74.4 95 2003 62.9 78.5 90.5
1993 48.8 87.5 116.6 2004 56.7 96.8 107.4
1994 62.1 79.4 126.7 2005 48.9 58.7 77.7
1995 115.3 132.4 147.5 2006 61.9 95.3 124.7
1996 65.2 83.2 94.2
1997 55.3 70.6 88
1998 95.9 128.2 129.5

AAiT - 114 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Lemi Limu Genet

Rainfall depth having a Rainfall depth having a
Year duration of Year duration of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1986 80.3 83.5 98.6 1986 66.3 97.2 127.7
1987 54 93.1 133.6 1987 60.5 79.3 87.8
1988 85 95.5 115.9 1988 45.8 78.7 93.2
1989 40.4 74.2 110.9 1989 55.6 74.3 79
1990 80 117.2 117.2 1990 54.7 83.5 85
1992 51.8 53.6 58.9 1991 53 70.1 87.5
1993 42.4 65.1 72.9 1992 51.8 98.5 105
1994 70 57.7 72.5 1993 52.7 76 91.6
1995 75.4 87.2 111.2 1994 57.4 72.3 78.3
1996 96.5 95.8 105 1995 44.5 44.5 53.7
1997 45.8 120.6 150.5 1996 87.4 91.7 101.5
1998 50.1 80.2 120.4 1997 70.7 76.8 98.1
1999 59.2 106.4 143.7 1998 64.5 79.3 109.9
2000 78.4 95.9 121.7 1999 56.7 74 98.2
2001 62 90.7 111.1 2000 73 87.9 104.4
2002 60.7 81.6 91.8 2001 53.2 63.7 87.5
2003 46.5 73.6 95.9 2002 50.0 70.5 76.2
2004 53.3 73.5 88.5 2003 84.5 108.8 122.1
2005 57.8 79.3 82.9 2004 47.7 60.4 74.5
2006 50 75.2 105.4 2005 53.7 88.4 107.4
2007 74 77.4 104 2006 93.7 109.2 150.9
2008 55 94.2 129.2 2007 53.5 83.3 98.7
2009 41 76 104.4 2009 75.2 100.7 123.7
2010 50.4 98.2 143.7 2010 64.0 107 109.4
2012 61.4 98.4 102.4 2012 74.5 79 82.5
2013 74.1 100.1 112.6 2013 79.0 135.7 152.2
2014 60.5 106.4 137.3 2014 72.0 93 109.7
2015 37.1 61.7 73.2 2015 76.7 103.7 119.4
1994 51.5 61.7 78.9
1995 72.5 89 111.1

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Mehal Meda (RS)

Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of ….Cont Merto Lemariam
1-day 2-days 3-days 1995 32 45.9 67.5
1986 42 46.5 76.4 1996 32.9 35.7 46.4
1987 53.2 60 96.4 1997 25.3 46.9 60.9
1988 48.1 51 60.7 1998 31.5 46.2 66.3
1989 42.6 46.9 55.3 1999 28.8 38.3 55.7
1992 51.2 54.6 71.7 2000 23.6 38.9 49.4
1993 32 47.1 61.2 2001 25.7 39.9 53.1
1994 50.1 72.1 89.7 2002 25.3 42.2 60
1995 46.4 57.5 73.2 2003 37.6 51.9 62.9
1996 42.5 71.6 81.1 2004 46 53.4 63
1997 43 52.8 95.8 2005 56.3 57.8 60.8
1998 54.8 73.3 95.3 2006 47.1 74.5 83.1
1999 62.3 80.1 98.7 2014 41.4 51.1 65
2000 47 74.2 91 2015 50.2 63 70.5
2001 68.5 75.3 108.7
2002 53.2 95.7 100 Wetet Abay
Rainfall depth having a duration
2003 57 61.5 77 Year of
2004 35 54.2 63 1-day 2-days 3-days
2005 31.6 58 60.4 1987 57.2 85.6 116.6
2006 51 63 84 1988 70.3 65.2 79.1
2007 34.8 66 70.6 1989 55.2 48 61.2
2008 35.6 48 61.5 1990 78.1 89.4 109.4
2009 34.5 51.2 62 1999 154.5 68.6 69.2
2010 45.3 73.5 89.5 2000 73.7 75.1 83.2
2011 41 80.2 87.6 2001 58.4 61.1 81.1
2012 47.5 74.2 87.6 2002 37.1 52.1 67.4
2013 38.2 43.6 76.3 2003 54.2 84.2 107.2
2014 54.2 62.8 99.5 2004 33.1 88.3 90
2015 57.2 89.2 120.3 2005 55 90.3 90.3
2006 74.5 59.8 79.2
Merto Lemariam 2007 57 40.8 44.1
Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of 2008 69 71.9 106.4
1-day 2-days 3-days 2009 62.5 91.1 93.6
1987 30.9 50.6 62.9 2010 70.5
1989 40.3 51.3 64.8 2013 55.9
1990 51.7 63.3 63.3 2014 92.2
1992 62 122 152 2015 47
1993 42.5 62.5 91
1994 46.5 63.5 76.6

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Metema Motta
Rainfall depth having a duration Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of Year of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1971 72.1 72.2 74.3 1985 46.2
1972 80.3 103.6 103.6 1986 46.9
1973 56.1 56.1 80 1988 38 89.3 107.2
1974 70 78.4 94.4 1989 32.3 70.5 85.2
1975 62.5 90.2 96.9 1990 56.8 67.4 74.9
1976 46.5 64 79.2 1991 42.9 55.5 66.8
1986 121.4 151.9 151.9 1992 53 59.8 68.8
1987 67 77 97.6 1993 44.7 64.5 76.7
1988 63 68.2 78.2 1994 47.1 60.6 100
1989 52.7 74.9 74.9 1995 46.4 65.1 82
1994 35.4 47.5 63.7 1996 67.9 110.9 133.6
1995 40.5 59.5 81.8 1997 34.3 51 69.1
1997 80.2 120.7 151.5 1998 48 57.9 68.1
1998 49 57.3 67.6 1999 36.5 53.2 59.5
1999 60.1 61.8 80.7 2000 47.1 65.3 65.3
2000 71.2 89.1 112.5 2001 68.4 95.1 124.4
2001 56.7 70.6 74.8 2002 43.7 55.7 66.9
2002 51.1 57.5 60.7 2003 62.8 98.2 116.2
2003 60.9 93.4 104.9 2004 51.3 62.3 92.2
2004 51.3 51.3 60.2 2005 46.7 55.7 64.7
2005 50 57 74.6 2006 40.4 54.8 76.3
2006 65.4 71.2 98.2 2007 57.4 63.2 63.5
2007 59.4 79.2 95.1 2008 40.5 67.1 82.7
2008 69.1 76.8 88.4 2009 33.5 53.4 68.3
2009 50.9 55.9 60 2010 77.5 96.1 140.7
2010 65.8 76.2 121.8 2011 72.1 116.5 125.8
2011 38 73 74.3 2012 62 67.6 87.7
2012 96 119 132 2013 69.1 77.7 100
2013 64 71.7 76.2 2014 48.2 68 93.6
2014 64 72 111.1 2015 48 70.4 80.2

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Nekemte
Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of ….Cont Nekemte
1-day 2-days 3-days 2006 56.9 80.6 121.1
1953 40 2007 89 122 132.5
1954 33 2008 71.6 89.7 106.3
1971 66 2009 58.3 80.3 98.7
1972 75 2010 137.5 160.7 182.9
1973 67.9 2011 74 100.1 114.3
1974 91.6 2012 105.5 149.4 158
1975 58 2013 59.2 85.1 96.5
1976 117 2014 110.6 116.2 199
1977 70
1978 56.2 Muletadiga
Rainfall depth having a duration
1979 51.5 Year of
1980 75 89.3 138.8 1-day 2-days 3-days
1981 123.5 133.1 165.2 1989 64.9 91.2 101.2
1982 62.1 70.4 113 1990 60 72.7 78.9
1983 54.2 83.2 92.4 1991 52.2 75 87.9
1984 66.6 77.2 77.2 1992 40 62.8 86.7
1985 94.5 110.7 130.1 1993 48.2 66.3 76.7
1986 63.9 100.9 108.5 1994 52.1 67.7 105.5
1987 81 89.7 106 1995 46.3 62.1 83.8
1988 50.3 76 93 1996 61.1 70.1 79.6
1989 57 92.4 96.8 1997 38.9 61.8 83.5
1990 60 97 101.2 1998 116.7 129.4 144.3
1991 55.9 108.1 115.8 1999 73.3 84.2 96.8
1992 63.9 102.7 130.6 2000 60.1 95.9 113
1993 80 110.8 141.3 2001 47.6 72.5 72.5
1994 78.4 93.4 119.1 2002 38.3 50.6 67.3
1995 67.3 102.6 144 2003 51.1 83.1 86.6
1996 105.4 165.4 178.9 2004 50.1 64.2 81.1
1997 72.3 105.2 138.8 2005 53.8 92.7 127.9
1998 126.5 139.5 155.4 2006 48.6 71.2 92.4
1999 71.2 81.7 103.2 2007 52.7 71.7 76.7
2000 84.2 101.5 125.3 2008 118.6 153.1 165.9
2001 70 96.7 117.9 2009 41.2 67.2 70.2
2002 67.7 87 108.5 2010 53.5 79.6 101.1
2003 53.3 84 115.8 2011 53.3 80 89.5
2004 91.8 129.5 132.4 2014 65 87 107
2005 85.4 134.7 153.9

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Neshi
Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of ….Cont Nolekaba
1-day 2-days 3-days 2001 65.2 85.8 97.8
1986 40.2 50.4 65.4 2002 94.6 121.4 134
1987 74.4 50.4 65.4 2003 40.2 68.3 92.1
1988 85 82 82 2004 85.2 85.2 155.2
1989 53.1 77.6 80.4 2005 79.1 89.3 97.7
1990 63 77 102 2006 57 71.9 87.5
1991 56.2 80.1 90.3 2007 73 96.5 119.7
1992 60 92 121.4 2008 76 83.7 101.9
1993 70.4 135 153.7 2010 59 64 89
1994 58 85.6 97.6 2014 72.5 112 119
1995 68.8 99 131
1996 65.0 103.6 103.6 Pawe
Rainfall depth having a duration
1997 62 104.2 126.6 Year of
1998 72 114 146 1-day 2-days 3-days
1999 78.2 132.2 188.6 1987 79.8 89.8 95.6
2000 63.6 114.2 157.9 1988 105.8 120.2 179
2001 65.2 87.2 100.6 1989 115.8 135.2 156.8
2002 60.8 80.6 95.5 1990 65.2 76 91.2
2003 70 135.2 175.2 1992 86.7 113 114.8
2004 67 120 135 1993 58.2 81.1 116.5
2005 60.6 69.5 78.5 1994 94.4 96.1 132.5
2006 67.1 120 165 1995 108.2 119 134.2
2007 69 125 147.2 1996 90.8 106.7 144.9
2008 49 79 95 1997 150.1 198.2 201.9
2009 40 65.5 97.5 1998 87.7 104.8 174.1
2010 60.5 102.8 133.1 1999 53.8 71.8 87.6
2011 39 74.3 84.3 2000 72.4 72.7 98
2013 60.4 113.1 143.6 2001 72.2 109.7 140.8
2014 77 94 105.4 2002 62.6 70.1 107.7
2015 73 99.4 147.2 2003 88.7 100.7 104.5
Nolekaba 2004 71.8 74 128.6
Rainfall depth having a duration 2005 70 86.5 88
Year
1-day 2-days 3-days 2006 66.2 98.8 129.7
1992 54.6 64 85.5 2007 56.6 94.8 123.6
1993 55 67 103.5 2008 81.2 120.1 126.1
1994 86 122 132 2009 88.4 98.8 107
1995 49.6 78 98.5 2010 85 111.4 133.4
1996 52 77 109.4 2011 48.6 60.9 73.9
1997 56 92 112.6 2012 69 129.4 151.2
1998 58 74 86.2 2013 111 137 173.8
1999 56.1 80.7 99.9 2014 61.5 319 319
2000 49.1 73.6 106.6 2015 64.7 126.9 128.2

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Shambu Sibusire
Rainfall depth having a duration Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of Year of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1957 23.2 1986 58.3
1958 44 1987 53.8
1959 39.1 1988 58.4 65.2 79.1
1961 31 1989 60.3 48 61.2
1980 40 85.8 137 1990 46.2 89.4 109.4
1981 33.4 76.3 111.7 1992 62.3 88 124.6
1982 39.2 53.9 67.2 1993 52.6 73.6 90.7
1984 45.6 76.1 92.5 1994 49.3 45.6 52.2
1985 55.5 118 118 1995 76.3 101.9 105.4
1986 50.2 54.2 77.2 1996 43.3 57.2 76.8
1987 54.5 79.3 84.7 1997 47.7 69.9 83.2
1988 58.1 74.4 87.6 1998 61.9 66.2 70.9
1989 51.3 73.6 107.7 1999 55.7 68.6 69.2
1990 91.3 134.7 145.3 2000 37.6 75.1 83.2
1991 50.2 64.2 86.6 2001 38.9 61.1 81.1
1992 85.1 92.2 96.1 2002 40.2 52.1 67.4
1993 51.6 91.8 101.1 2003 55 84.2 107.2
1994 57.8 80.6 85.4 2004 34.2 88.3 90
1995 45.7 63.7 70.9 2005 48.2 90.3 90.3
1996 66.2 94.8 133.6 2006 60.1 59.8 79.2
1997 58.7 90.9 101.4 2007 58.4 40.8 44.1
1998 70 74 87.4 2008 50.9 71.9 106.4
1999 55.1 80.7 95.5 2009 64.3 91.1 93.6
2000 45 57.5 67.4 2010 49.7 61.1 76
2001 38.7 56.5 78.8 2011 47.1 57.2 61
2002 70.3 103.2 140.2 2012 42.3
2003 53.2 68.4 87.6 2013 78.1
2004 51.4 75.3 78.5 2014 38.7 66.6 74.3
2005 49 61.5 73.1 2015 62 53.8 64.3
2006 48.7 64 70.8
2007 38.5 54.5 69.2
2008 48.8 75.2 95.1
2009 73.6 78.8 94.8
2010 45 81 90.8
2011 57.6 78.3 79.7
2012 54.2 77.8 90.4
2013 44.3 68.8 79.4
2014 56 64 68.7
2015 40.7 63.8 82.9

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Tillili Tis_Abay
Rainfall depth having a duration Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of Year of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1974 56.4 109.7 109.7 1982 74.5 84.5 91
1976 51 79.9 87 1983 68 84.8 110.5
1980 58.1 69.4 93.8 1984 40 60 70.1
1981 62 90.1 113 1985 40.3 56.6 72.5
1982 76.6 94.2 101.3 1986 68.8 95.9 108.2
1983 62.9 86.1 99.9 1987 52.3 63.3 87.3
1984 51.7 78 96 1988 60.2 85.5 102
1985 69.4 89.3 118.4 1989 60.4 111.3 144.3
1986 64 80 100.2 1990 63.5 113.9 123.9
1987 46.6 62.9 95.3 1991 98 116 150.8
1988 53.1 69.4 104.9 1992 50.7 66 96
1989 66.4 95.9 133.1 1995 34.5 57.9 72.5
1990 97.2 159.5 187.2 1996 37.4 62.2 86.8
1991 49.3 97.9 129.2 1997 79.5 95.8
1996 36.3 59.1 81.5 1998 56
1997 63.5 99.7 121.1 1999 46 85.7 97.7
1998 53.3 82.4 105.8 2000 83 105.1 107.5
1999 47.5 80 102.4 2001 64.3 77.6 87.6
2000 66.5 90.1 112.2 2002 63.2 71.2 83.4
2001 50 88.5 102 2003 40.6 68.1 88.1
2002 45.7 70.6 95.1 2004 66.6 90.8 103
2003 46.8 77.5 95.3 2005 73.3 100.4 149.4
2004 68 94.4 116.1 2006 93.8
2005 69.3 90.8 106.8 2007 40.5 57.8 74.1
2006 58.5 75.9 93.1 2008 56.9 70.5 80.4
2009 55.5 57.2 86.2
2010 61.5 72.8 84.8
2011 65.8
2012 47.1 74.2 90.6
2013 49.2 66.5 68.8
2014 78.4 86.5 86.5
2015 32.5 58.5 71.1

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
Wegel Tena
Rainfall depth having a duration of ….Cont Yanfa
Year
1-day 2-days 3-days 1995 81.5 101.9 105.4
1980 37.2 54.8 70 1996 90.8 57.2 76.8
1981 37.2 55 64.2 1997 94.3 69.9 83.2
1982 44.2 55.5 70.7 1998 49.7 66.2 70.9
1983 32.6 59.2 69.7 1999 58.1 68.6 69.2
1984 28.3 30.8 31.3 2001 104.5 61.1 81.1
1985 33.2 42.1 58.9 2002 50.9 52.1 67.4
1986 50.2 74.8 95.3 2003 46.4 84.2 107.2
1987 48.5 63.1 66.2 2004 54.9 88.3 90
1988 61.8 85.6 113.1 2005 63.7 90.3 90.3
1989 20.2 36 46.2 2006 61.5 55 72.3
1992 52 71.4 89 2007 52.2 40.8 44.1
1993 46.6 63.1 89.4 2008 43.9 71.9 106.4
1994 32 50 57.3 2009 48.3 91.1 93.6
1995 97.2 102.4 107.1 2012 51
1996 49.5 66.5 80.9
1997 34.5 58.2 68.8 Werejiru
1998 53.2 89.2 107 Rainfall depth having a duration of
Year
1999 43.7 78.9 81.3 1-day 2-days 3-days
2000 36.6 61.6 69.1 1987 76.8 87.8 133.5
2001 44.2 57.4 80.4 1988 71.2 84.5 112.7
2002 49.8 96.8 106.6 1989 71.2 100.4 121
2003 54 60 88.4 1990 62 90.5 115.7
2004 44.6 80.2 97.5 1993 58.9 99.3 104.9
2005 48.2 62.3 92.6 1994 53.2 69.1 85.3
2007 40.8 58.8 75.1 1995 62.4 70.2 94
2008 35 57.2 70.7 1996 72.6 99.3 100
2009 40.6 40.7 47.8 1997 76 90.2 117.4
2010 44 83.3 91.7 1998 68.6 98.5 98.5
2011 56.6 74.6 78.8 1999 61.5 71 79.2
2013 38 58 74.7 2000 70.9 97.1 97.1
2014 47 79 87.4 2001 79 101.9 106.4
Yanfa 2002 53 88.8 102.1
Year Rainfall depth having a duration of 2003 73 85 99.7
1-day 2-days 3-days 2004 70.5 96.3 109
1987 70.5 2005 73.8 77.1 93.6
1988 75.8 65.2 79.1 2006 57.3 84.1 84.1
1989 65 48 61.2 2007 73.2 90.1 96.2
1990 88.4 89.4 109.4 2008 94.5 96.6 142
1991 53.4 72 107.5 2010 61.7 36.2 36.2
1992 67.2 88 124.6 2011 61.5 93.6 115.9
1993 73.2 73.6 90.7 2012 73.4 67.1 67.1
1994 68.3 45.6 52.2 2014 50.7 75.7 101.8

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Yetemen Wereta (Add)

Rainfall depth having a duration Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of Year of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1975 47.5 57.5 65 1986 46.4
1976 43.6 55.6 72.7 1987 50
1977 53.6 66.1 94.1 1988 108.2
1980 38.8 62.3 91.1 1989 114.8
1981 54.5 60.7 69.9 1990 70.2
1982 36.1 42 58.8 1991 64.6
1983 37.5 55.2 81.5 1992 65.8
1984 70.8 88.2 121.1 1993 62.4
1986 40 49.1 84.6 1994 68
1987 67.6 67.6 87.8 1995 48
1988 48 88 94.7 1996 72.4
1989 80.5 136 196.5 1997 35.9
1990 41.2 70.3 81.1 1998 55
1991 47 57 64.5 1999 64.5
1992 58 80.7 98.3 2000 51
1993 89.2 95.4 105.9 2001 73.5
1994 90.6 151 153 2002 100.6
1995 30.9 47.2 72.6 2003 108
1996 60.1 60.1 71.6 2004 100.2 85.7 101.2
1997 47.2 60.6 69.2 2005 79 137.1 163.1
1998 39 68.5 80.9 2006 73.7 117.8 136.3
1999 44 59.9 78.3 2007 63.5 82 94.5
2000 59.4 59.4 69.2 2008 97 88.8 98.7
2001 34 56 65.5 2009 118.6 90.2 102.4
2002 39.2 74.9 103.2 2010 70 82 97.4
2003 30.2 55.7 74.3 2011 66 79.4 91.5
2004 54.3 64.6 77.3 2012 57.5 128.7 161.3
2005 32.3 54.8 64.3 2013 80 98.6 110.4
2006 38.5 70.5 103.6 2014 60 87 99.4
2007 33.5 55.5 75.7 2015 100.5 83.6 99.6
2008 86.3 116.7 137.2
2009 25.5 45.5 64.5
2010 126.5 147.1 171.6
2011 99.5 123 150.5
2012 30.5 54 76.5
2013 35.2 65.2 93.5
2014 31.5 59.4 71.9

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Yetnora Zege
Rainfall depth having a duration Rainfall depth having a duration
Year of Year of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1988 60.8 80.5 109.3 1975 70.5 81.7 92.6
1989 48.7 72.6 87.8 1976 69.6 88.4 109.1
1990 64.3 90.4 110.8 1977 63.8 81.1 135.5
1991 42.2 45.1 63.8 1978 48.2 76.4 88.1
1992 43 47.4 63.3 1979 61.8 86.6 96.6
1993 52.3 52.3 74.3 1980 63.1 92 107.3
1994 54.1 82 113.4 1981 71.5 104.5 134.4
1995 51 62 69.5 1983 46.6 86.2 112.7
1996 42.7 67.2 84.7 1984 61.1 88.8 124.5
1997 47.3 59.5 70.1 1985 51.3 100.8 119.5
1998 60.7 76.7 80.7 1986 37 60.6 89.5
1999 68.7 77.5 90.4 1987 40.7 59.2 79.3
2000 52.1 74.3 74.3 1988 37.1 61.6 79.7
2001 44.9 79.4 100.6 1989 37.2 65.6 89.8
2002 64.4 128.5 139.2 1990 34.1 57.5 64.3
2003 35.7 56.1 58.3 1995 49.6 123.9 137.1
2004 46.8 73.9 100.4 1996 71.8 72 90.4
2005 37.3 56.9 61 1997 76.2 82.2 108.8
2006 46 70 91.2 1998 65.5 89.9 100.9
2007 35.3 49.7 60.8 1999 38.3 71.4 100.8
2008 38.1 51.1 61.4 2000 58.7 77.2 105
2009 37.1 58.3 63.4 2001 37.5 57.4 73.7
2010 49.2 55.8 64.1 2002 41.5 74 110.3
2011 57 64.2 70.2 2003 39.8 67.4 94.7
2012 34.2 59 70.5 2004 37.5 63 87.2
2013 39.7 52.2 74.5 2005 42.7
2014 37.1 37.8 56 2006 97.3 77.9 112.2
2015 48.4 54.2 89.5 2007 97.5 105.7 134.2
2008 54.9 102.5 128.9
2009 49.5 88.5 126
2010 52.6 81 111.7
2011 123 123.9 137.1
2012 37.4
2013 47.8 84.1 112.5
2014 37.4
2015 39

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Merawi Shola Gebeya

Rainfall depth having a duration Rainfall depth having a duration
Year
Year of of
1-day 2-days 3-days 1-day 2-days 3-days
1982 51.2 66.8 83.3 2006 28.1 52.1 76.9
1983 71 94.6 112.6 2007 39.9 52.4 77.3
1984 98 122.9 208.8 2008 35.9 63.7 80
1985 56.6 71.6 94.3 2009 47.5 52 78.9
1986 65.7 94.3 117.3 2010 30.3 42.6 51.4
1987 49 67.4 92.4 2011 32.5 58.1 82.4
1988 53.5 94.3 98.1 2012 45.6 48.3 77.2
1989 50.3 64.5 77.9 2013 45.2 55.7 70.2
1990 83.6 158.1 171.5 2014 36.4 45.5 71.2
1991 93.1 128.9 128.9 2015 37.2 58.5 60
1992 73 87.3 97.5
1994 51.5 61.7 78.9
1995 72.5 89 111.1
2005 72.8
2006 80.8
2007 50.7
2008 64.9
2009 94.1
2010 68.9
2011 77.1
2012 95.4
2013 52.1
2014 54.4
2015 48.2

AAiT - 125 - BY:ABENEZER E.

 Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Rainfall depth having a duration of 1- day

Abasina
Feres Bet Nefas Mewcha Gondar A.P. Haike Ambo Met Joger
Year 1-day Year 1-day Year 1-day Year 1-day Year 1-day Year 1-day
1980 64.6 1964 45.0 1986 37 1966 49.7 1966 31 1986 92.7
1981 80 1971 47.7 1987 41.3 1967 59.8 1967 32 1987 58.2
1982 48 1972 47.3 1988 51.3 1968 49.4 1968 42.7 1988 60.7
1983 52.8 1973 43.6 1989 47.9 1969 53.6 1969 58 1989 70.2
1986 45.2 1974 45.9 1990 63 1970 50.4 1970 29 1990 66.8
1987 88.4 1975 46.3 1991 52.8 1971 50.6 1971 37 1991 60.6
1988 36.5 1976 45.3 1992 36.8 1972 55.0 1972 35 1992 73.2
1989 32.6 1978 45.8 1994 40.1 1973 46.7 1973 45 1993 95.0
1990 32.2 1979 46.3 1995 30.9 1974 48.6 1974 29 1994 40.0
1991 25.7 1980 45.8 1996 45.5 1975 49.5 1975 26 1995 97.1
1992 24.8 1981 44.8 1997 72.3 1976 53.1 1976 26 1996 73.5
1994 49.5 1982 49.8 1998 64.6 1977 54.1 1977 18 1997 74.3
1996 75.6 1983 46.1 1999 58.1 1978 50.6 1978 37.1 1998 69.4
1997 105.2 1984 49.0 2000 92.6 1979 53.2 1979 28.5 1999 89.7
1998 71.5 1985 47.3 2001 65.1 1980 42.5 1980 38.5 2000 61
1999 55.2 1986 47.6 2002 60.2 1981 48.6 1981 26.7 2001 78.8
2000 87.5 1987 54.3 2003 69.4 1982 48.9 1982 22.3 2002 77.8
2001 77.5 1988 49.2 2004 51.1 1983 52.2 1983 25 2003 92.1
2002 57 1989 37.5 2005 45.3 1984 53.8 1989 37.8 2004 57.7
2003 44.1 1990 45.8 2006 70.5 1985 71.3 1990 52.8 2005 86.9
2004 52.7 1991 49.8 2007 48.1 1986 32.0 1991 30.1 2006 66.8
2005 64.5 1992 44.2 2008 51.2 1988 59.6 1992 44.3 2007 45
2006 84.9 1993 44.9 2009 46 1989 47.5 1993 38.8 2010 40
2007 52.2 1994 46.6 2010 52 1990 63.5 1994 50.3 2014 63.5
2008 58.2 1996 46.8 2011 88.1 2003 48.8 1995 27.2
2009 51.2 1997 46.1 2012 52.8 2004 49.0 1996 64
2010 69.3 1998 48.5 2013 41.3 2005 51.9 1997 30.5
2011 79.4 1999 47.7 2014 44.3 2006 51.4 1998 60.6
2012 73.8 2000 43.9 2015 54 2007 52.1
2013 83.1 2001 59.7
2014 96.5 2005 45.7
2015 101.2 2006 48.7

AAiT - 126 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Rainfall depth having a duration of 1- day

Mekane
Mendi Sirinka Yejubie Amba mariam Gebre Guracha Selam
Year 1-day Year 1-day Year 1-day Year 1-day Year 1-day Year 1-day
1986 67.8 1987 57.7 1988 91.6 1989 26.0 1980 37.4 1988 33.0
1987 57.4 1988 78.3 1989 38.3 1994 43.0 1981 37.1 1989 30.2
1988 72.3 1989 48.1 1990 39.6 1995 54.1 1986 36.9 1999 24.6
1989 94.5 1991 36.9 1991 31.1 1996 27.4 1987 37.4 2000 32.2
1990 58.5 1992 50.9 1996 36 1999 50.4 1988 40.6 2001 39.1
1991 40 1993 74.1 1997 43 2000 41.0 1989 39.4 2002 24.8
1992 41.5 1994 48.5 1998 58 2001 60.5 1990 39.4 2003 32.6
1993 80.8 1995 62.5 1999 30.2 2002 38.3 1991 39.3 2004 28.3
1994 71.5 1996 88.9 2000 34 2003 44.0 1992 40.1 2005 32.5
1997 78 1997 57.2 2001 53.5 2004 27.6 1993 37.3 2007 26.3
1998 162.5 1998 73.3 2002 35.1 2005 49.6 1994 29.0
1999 95.8 1999 46.6 2003 33.6 2006 34.9 1995 35.4
2000 94.8 2000 46.2 2004 48.2 2007 50.9 1996 37.2
2001 72.5 2001 32.1 2005 46.9 1999 29.8
2002 75.9 2002 41.6 2006 54.2
2003 70.5 2003 36.0
2004 77.6 2004 51.4
2006 176.5 2007 52.4
2007 63
2008 56.1
2010 51.6
2014 55.8

AAiT - 127 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Table B.2 Approximate longitude & latitude for the available stations in UBNB from the
grid longitude & latitude of the reanalysis data

Station For ECMWS 0.5 by 0.5 Degree Grid For GLADS 0.25 by 0.25 Degree Grid
Size Size
Approxim Approxim Approxim Approxim
Indicated Indicated
ated ated Grid No. ated ated Grid No.
No. longitude latitude longitude latitude longitude latitude
1 36.000 9.033 36.0 9.0 9 36.125 9.125 14
2 38.157 10.113 38.0 10.0 39 38.125 9.375 71
3 36.233 8.367 36.0 8.5 10 36.125 8.375 15
4 37.493 11.275 37.5 11.5 31 37.375 11.375 53
5 36.600 7.850 36.5 8.0 18 36.625 7.875 31
6 39.033 10.033 39.0 10.0 50 38.875 10.625 83
7 37.074 9.886 37.0 10.0 24 37.125 9.875 45
8 38.467 11.750 38.5 11.5 42 38.375 11.625 74
9 37.600 12.767 37.5 12.5 29 37.625 12.875 58
10 37.840 8.985 38.0 9.0 41 37.875 9.625 65
11 37.850 8.983 38.0 9.0 41 37.875 9.625 65
12 36.333 9.267 36.5 9.5 15 36.375 9.375 21
13 36.750 9.050 37.0 9.0 26 36.625 9.125 27
14 36.500 8.750 36.5 9.0 16 36.375 8.625 24
15 34.520 10.070 34.5 10.0 1 34.625 10.125 1
16 36.983 8.300 37.0 8.5 27 37.125 7.875 48
17 36.793 10.661 37.0 10.5 23 36.875 10.625 34
18 37.059 12.540 37.0 12.5 19 37.125 12.625 41
19 37.083 9.117 37.0 9.0 26 37.125 9.125 47
20 37.322 11.603 37.5 11.5 31 37.375 11.625 52
21 37.385 11.595 37.5 11.5 31 37.375 11.625 52
22 34.733 9.750 34.5 10.0 1 34.625 9.875 2
23 36.900 7.967 37.0 8.0 28 36.875 7.875 39
24 36.333 8.450 36.5 8.5 17 36.375 8.375 25
25 36.082 10.596 36.0 10.5 7 36.125 10.625 12
26 36.499 10.974 36.5 11.0 13 36.375 10.875 20
27 37.228 12.335 37.0 12.5 19 37.125 12.375 42
28 36.233 7.733 36.0 8.0 11 36.125 7.875 16
29 36.117 8.350 36.0 8.5 10 36.125 8.375 15
30 39.718 11.084 39.5 11.0 52 39.625 11.125 92
31 36.846 11.434 37.0 11.5 21 36.875 11.375 32
32 37.898 13.142 38.0 12.0 36 37.875 11.875 63
33 36.283 8.400 36.5 8.5 17 36.375 8.375 25
34 39.500 9.633 39.5 9.5 54 39.375 9.625 88
35 37.470 10.300 37.5 10.5 33 37.375 10.375 55

AAiT - 128 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

…...Cont.
36 37.739 10.326 37.5 10.5 33 37.625 10.375 62
37 37.995 11.867 38.0 12.0 36 38.375 11.875 73
38 38.162 10.651 38.0 10.5 38 38.125 10.625 68
39 36.100 9.383 36.0 9.5 8 36.125 9.375 13
40 36.400 8.683 36.5 8.5 17 36.375 8.625 24
41 38.151 10.171 38.0 10.0 39 38.125 10.125 70
42 37.226 11.873 37.0 12.0 20 37.125 11.375 43
43 37.486 10.566 37.5 10.5 33 37.375 10.625 54
44 35.733 9.200 35.5 9.0 5 35.625 9.125 8
45 38.651 9.426 38.5 9.5 46 38.625 9.375 81
46 37.233 7.850 37.0 8.0 28 37.125 7.875 48
47 35.683 9.167 35.5 9.0 5 35.625 9.125 8
48 36.919 10.995 37.0 11.0 22 36.875 10.875 33
49 38.067 10.743 38.0 10.5 38 38.125 10.625 68
50 37.609 10.850 37.5 11.0 32 37.625 10.875 61
51 38.733 9.767 38.5 10.0 45 38.625 9.875 80
52 38.243 10.053 38.0 10.0 39 38.125 9.375 71
53 37.050 10.717 37.0 10.5 23 37.125 10.625 44
54 36.200 7.983 36.0 8.0 11 36.125 7.875 16
55 38.400 9.800 38.5 10.0 45 38.375 9.875 76
56 36.667 7.833 36.5 8.0 18 36.625 7.875 31
57 36.617 9.867 36.5 10.0 14 36.625 9.875 26
58 35.833 9.167 36.0 9.0 9 35.875 9.125 10
59 38.240 10.004 38.0 10.0 39 38.125 9.375 71
60 37.420 12.550 37.5 12.5 29 37.375 12.625 50
61 37.432 12.521 37.5 12.5 29 37.375 12.625 50
62 37.300 12.250 37.5 12.5 29 37.375 12.375 51
63 38.089 10.929 38.0 11.0 37 38.125 10.875 67
64 39.667 11.300 39.5 11.5 51 39.625 11.375 91
65 37.380 11.770 37.5 12.0 30 37.375 11.625 52
66 38.083 9.250 38.0 9.5 40 38.125 9.125 72
67 36.817 7.667 37.0 8.0 28 36.875 7.625 40
68 37.860 9.583 38.0 9.5 40 37.875 9.625 65
69 39.517 11.183 39.5 11.0 52 39.625 11.125 92
70 36.783 8.683 37.0 8.5 27 36.625 8.625 29
71 38.900 9.817 39.0 10.0 50 38.875 9.875 84
72 36.950 8.067 37.0 8.0 28 36.875 8.125 38
73 36.917 8.100 37.0 8.0 28 36.875 8.125 38
74 39.660 10.315 39.5 10.5 53 39.625 10.375 93
75 38.750 10.750 39.0 11.5 49 38.625 10.625 79

AAiT - 129 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

…...Cont.

76 35.100 9.783 35.0 10.0 3 35.125 9.875 4

77 37.164 11.411 37.0 11.5 21 37.125 11.375 43
78 38.280 10.880 38.5 11.0 43 38.375 10.875 75
79 37.284 11.473 37.5 11.5 31 37.375 11.375 53
80 36.414 12.775 36.5 11.5 12 36.375 12.875 18
81 37.890 11.074 38.0 11.0 37 37.875 11.125 64
82 35.533 9.333 35.5 9.5 4 35.625 9.375 7
83 36.483 8.950 36.5 9.0 16 36.375 8.875 23
84 38.467 11.734 38.5 11.5 42 38.375 11.625 74
85 36.463 9.083 36.5 9.0 16 36.375 9.125 22
86 37.268 9.723 37.5 9.5 34 37.375 9.625 56
87 35.833 8.950 36.0 9.0 9 35.875 8.875 11
88 36.410 11.312 36.5 11.5 12 36.375 11.375 19
89 36.967 7.700 37.0 8.0 28 37.125 7.625 49
90 37.121 9.571 37.0 9.5 25 37.125 9.625 46
91 39.550 9.218 39.5 9.0 55 39.625 9.125 95
92 36.872 9.040 37.0 9.0 26 36.875 9.125 35
93 39.600 11.750 39.5 11.5 51 39.625 11.625 90
94 37.021 10.251 37.0 10.5 23 37.125 10.625 44
95 37.579 11.488 37.5 11.5 31 37.625 11.375 60
96 39.221 11.590 39.0 11.5 49 39.125 11.625 86
97 35.367 9.617 35.5 9.5 4 35.375 9.625 5
98 37.696 11.922 37.5 12.0 30 37.625 11.875 59
99 37.042 11.370 37.0 11.5 21 37.125 11.375 43
100 36.600 8.233 36.5 8.0 18 36.625 8.125 30
101 37.750 10.150 38.0 10.5 38 37.875 9.625 65
102 38.147 10.329 38.0 10.5 38 38.125 10.375 69
103 38.108 10.245 38.0 10.0 39 38.125 10.375 69
104 37.312 11.689 37.5 11.5 31 37.375 11.625 52

AAiT - 130 - BY:ABENEZER E.

 Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Table B.3 Annual Maximum Rainfall of ECMWF for 0.5 by 0.5 grid Size (mm)

ECMWF- 1 day for 0.5 by 0.5 grid Size, year 1983-2012

Grid No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Longitude 34.5 34.5 35.0 35.5 35.5 35.5 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0
Latitude 10.0 9.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.0 10.5 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0
1983 116.856 66.555 86.172 80.055 54.750 33.477 61.870 64.704 53.021 53.214 43.336
1984 44.798 33.613 39.662 49.178 29.388 41.634 43.191 58.972 50.932 33.919 34.723
1985 29.337 28.547 33.050 37.812 42.032 37.121 45.049 39.136 46.007 41.843 36.160
1986 42.510 52.753 45.694 90.050 82.523 46.944 45.687 87.136 85.986 58.925 34.776
1987 58.929 64.675 63.773 89.688 89.594 91.643 54.302 88.941 95.636 93.766 82.843
1988 43.076 48.104 47.046 52.588 41.698 38.750 42.175 47.779 46.943 46.808 43.039
1989 57.884 57.238 86.923 66.395 46.182 122.809 75.904 54.685 46.806 64.350 97.329
1990 68.557 73.903 90.930 124.552 98.792 55.493 64.445 129.611 119.224 83.133 56.942
1991 49.183 56.630 48.320 64.220 61.413 46.481 61.288 51.410 55.983 48.506 38.951
1992 31.987 38.203 43.513 59.891 38.383 31.571 58.674 78.753 63.653 35.832 25.130
1993 41.598 38.926 43.315 53.851 36.728 21.453 66.217 58.382 48.624 30.293 31.305
1994 21.576 28.477 29.925 50.656 32.875 42.547 45.855 59.360 47.698 35.687 38.391
1995 32.679 31.756 40.876 56.754 38.768 35.577 47.409 65.699 52.311 38.322 33.415
1996 79.715 64.903 90.634 75.606 62.987 96.243 64.666 75.653 63.900 80.066 94.853
1997 37.841 33.425 41.768 52.516 48.151 42.635 53.639 47.891 44.521 39.567 32.771
1998 118.564 59.679 102.062 54.920 52.863 33.622 86.951 49.624 46.272 39.379 29.364
1999 49.608 67.587 49.134 49.446 38.110 35.971 46.495 48.651 46.964 32.630 25.476
2000 45.581 47.545 57.273 87.943 77.732 64.153 76.457 109.700 105.712 92.561 62.565
2001 114.381 115.736 111.904 118.700 124.108 100.911 64.596 97.401 118.500 125.935 107.158
2002 28.782 26.864 46.141 46.191 36.829 52.432 58.634 57.448 62.989 53.953 49.612
2003 72.087 65.778 74.824 111.489 90.244 56.049 44.327 86.833 79.010 48.147 50.119
2004 36.534 31.707 51.862 82.873 38.069 26.420 63.316 51.125 46.509 31.158 24.645
2005 73.388 65.065 67.051 63.713 48.917 74.645 65.552 56.232 50.278 58.235 54.351
2006 70.555 76.636 91.831 72.439 47.514 71.250 52.806 61.499 61.977 68.617 64.515
2007 44.698 51.936 56.472 96.173 77.305 55.718 62.228 80.256 76.988 52.648 35.021
2008 58.412 63.525 56.316 48.068 59.697 56.119 80.835 53.496 63.052 57.424 43.928
2009 68.658 36.790 63.569 70.548 79.674 50.575 58.999 80.994 96.181 64.856 33.956
2010 60.507 61.837 54.168 56.489 48.884 66.075 84.057 68.025 47.730 43.032 52.681
2011 119.459 122.977 108.051 145.023 90.208 89.227 123.990 127.324 87.500 67.248 76.828
2012 48.339 49.483 42.724 116.084 141.376 73.779 68.439 96.382 147.447 107.498 75.565

AAiT - 131 - BY:ABENEZER E.

 Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

….Con't
Grid No. 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Longitude 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0
Latitude 11.5 11.0 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.0
1983 50.074 55.837 56.656 53.651 48.922 61.569 47.787 39.427 41.830 63.379 66.976
1984 58.732 48.454 50.099 58.194 61.352 48.756 36.446 87.627 74.785 70.721 60.530
1985 54.072 49.802 38.517 36.633 37.828 37.673 39.293 76.731 55.097 67.339 66.128
1986 62.612 48.301 53.920 73.686 61.253 49.602 36.184 38.041 44.199 48.654 51.264
1987 38.526 42.377 61.987 79.353 81.622 83.644 70.485 34.750 32.223 50.960 55.853
1988 66.257 47.806 49.484 50.528 45.114 46.833 44.556 56.976 61.576 65.482 54.400
1989 69.408 60.036 57.032 53.057 41.547 52.951 54.530 60.238 57.249 56.764 66.328
1990 47.901 58.997 93.146 122.099 101.310 69.361 50.771 29.721 38.772 54.857 64.534
1991 66.208 57.532 57.868 56.939 54.405 46.710 33.639 38.370 41.211 45.403 63.949
1992 47.748 57.651 72.974 83.163 64.584 41.182 29.618 56.082 50.424 46.272 63.202
1993 95.133 71.891 57.678 63.357 47.207 41.623 31.265 43.536 67.194 92.474 74.246
1994 54.511 46.396 54.745 60.835 39.091 34.949 30.973 36.696 51.488 62.694 56.611
1995 43.172 34.934 50.738 55.055 54.030 40.546 35.659 59.514 57.702 56.602 42.271
1996 45.724 51.414 52.263 68.820 56.519 64.951 80.774 32.403 33.596 33.167 42.785
1997 54.928 51.230 57.856 54.343 37.554 45.142 47.963 40.783 47.635 48.578 58.783
1998 70.329 83.798 63.717 57.300 48.987 42.560 31.648 167.665 137.705 81.977 58.634
1999 67.075 50.998 49.783 53.603 35.652 27.515 27.988 75.024 79.784 77.365 55.013
2000 64.736 68.459 78.806 114.294 113.237 103.170 71.783 49.084 51.830 49.891 73.161
2001 57.299 57.638 69.594 73.153 103.130 119.400 102.823 33.191 47.589 65.832 73.523
2002 41.045 32.484 50.536 53.126 59.486 58.706 36.525 51.729 43.316 38.827 48.063
2003 62.171 48.914 51.715 55.769 38.212 49.989 45.053 76.742 68.925 77.411 68.282
2004 39.869 47.179 55.822 57.084 43.240 33.482 36.094 54.787 56.586 53.606 37.926
2005 71.174 65.461 78.981 79.295 54.039 49.154 49.702 67.899 63.205 75.957 78.804
2006 62.784 68.186 45.893 66.633 59.576 57.228 55.239 47.793 49.225 51.495 68.924
2007 84.251 64.558 54.447 48.912 52.534 55.202 49.457 68.525 80.668 82.522 71.008
2008 78.420 69.251 69.014 50.301 50.330 46.424 43.967 74.963 80.651 78.884 51.414
2009 52.085 60.009 50.748 77.510 76.947 56.805 31.810 31.723 35.867 43.977 53.249
2010 46.458 69.110 72.564 72.443 44.165 38.366 40.278 55.940 51.351 44.973 59.602
2011 76.219 73.795 72.457 73.077 56.312 63.673 69.825 64.029 66.221 75.817 64.416
2012 78.631 73.497 48.624 71.335 66.141 77.923 72.922 48.348 50.906 65.100 73.097

AAiT - 132 - BY:ABENEZER E.

 Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Con’t
Grid No. 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
Longitude 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5
Latitude 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.5
1983 54.931 54.935 47.889 56.676 61.561 42.102 48.358 55.596 62.416 58.445 47.484
1984 43.000 36.223 69.274 101.318 64.863 49.003 56.413 51.877 49.402 61.820 45.985
1985 64.544 55.991 54.562 50.695 38.040 48.995 65.896 60.585 61.181 65.729 68.992
1986 47.966 51.156 51.631 46.985 44.501 46.169 32.558 34.453 37.646 43.037 38.265
1987 57.939 62.005 60.703 73.617 75.397 58.614 27.422 28.960 39.285 56.604 47.078
1988 51.082 50.894 71.196 59.723 53.811 47.598 48.320 49.066 55.544 49.476 55.881
1989 63.281 52.006 50.011 41.135 45.209 48.605 44.147 44.342 44.988 60.891 59.876
1990 59.696 76.665 107.144 90.106 55.878 47.980 29.137 40.350 67.314 67.094 57.800
1991 64.836 59.702 63.723 64.412 52.587 34.747 43.564 49.294 53.203 66.531 70.519
1992 61.689 57.743 70.053 56.123 32.513 34.782 39.487 42.300 37.135 52.571 45.054
1993 77.409 49.578 59.038 48.858 40.777 33.854 51.681 50.066 67.424 48.901 69.615
1994 59.705 78.569 64.814 50.222 40.705 32.521 29.854 44.481 45.580 44.097 67.244
1995 54.660 59.512 53.529 54.893 39.434 34.413 59.617 58.863 43.371 44.369 55.939
1996 50.095 56.534 67.044 63.856 66.470 64.156 37.148 38.386 35.074 32.034 37.147
1997 67.181 68.351 58.385 43.196 50.695 55.401 63.904 36.233 30.154 47.956 65.571
1998 63.337 58.612 65.566 51.426 40.813 42.178 164.246 130.115 74.635 47.260 44.483
1999 49.740 54.279 58.762 37.657 33.219 34.223 40.476 59.623 56.586 45.148 49.703
2000 102.612 95.133 98.936 123.193 109.231 87.012 50.709 45.270 47.059 57.729 92.199
2001 64.957 68.071 67.304 92.588 96.563 84.439 40.471 47.745 76.531 74.524 68.037
2002 41.417 37.753 40.266 56.650 47.829 36.656 62.258 52.869 35.435 40.754 42.762
2003 50.830 50.701 53.625 51.445 40.214 44.884 67.270 58.892 77.417 72.920 49.967
2004 49.105 51.447 56.026 47.817 43.017 44.133 43.618 49.887 56.041 35.466 32.733
2005 74.383 86.897 97.826 59.838 42.469 52.238 83.078 80.572 69.046 66.705 61.885
2006 66.219 45.139 65.821 60.662 46.338 46.850 60.987 62.959 68.681 71.585 60.230
2007 69.077 69.207 70.460 61.604 59.241 57.971 68.168 79.830 79.960 68.372 65.822
2008 60.084 57.719 66.678 49.461 42.235 48.080 58.382 65.238 68.390 51.204 48.091
2009 53.727 59.123 68.895 68.963 43.448 35.486 47.055 45.289 35.770 47.010 49.665
2010 59.344 47.509 49.777 39.979 35.690 41.973 76.726 74.875 65.201 56.898 39.588
2011 54.852 42.825 61.575 61.138 49.500 57.798 54.593 60.691 45.179 50.082 53.641
2012 63.751 46.615 72.376 71.671 57.430 45.717 50.131 48.046 61.921 64.717 57.807

AAiT - 133 - BY:ABENEZER E.

 Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

….Con't
Grid No. 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
Longitude 37.5 37.5 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.5 38.5 38.5
Latitude 9.5 8.0 12.0 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 11.5 11.0 10.5
1983 39.607 40.356 80.779 61.999 68.775 60.308 38.573 44.559 99.457 58.120 70.679
1984 56.496 40.705 47.296 63.974 62.077 58.628 50.502 43.856 41.387 64.002 57.289
1985 71.295 44.784 60.031 54.391 65.032 68.077 56.241 43.070 36.977 45.224 53.635
1986 43.058 47.642 37.070 44.664 49.039 41.451 45.801 46.713 64.299 59.491 50.568
1987 43.965 46.992 31.989 31.130 42.153 37.627 33.968 47.936 31.231 30.834 32.462
1988 60.539 40.249 52.493 55.957 77.013 72.674 58.500 58.342 93.651 60.630 77.483
1989 42.857 45.280 44.610 46.741 56.404 54.254 50.622 48.102 51.209 43.997 48.100
1990 84.561 34.311 48.406 69.277 62.148 50.017 60.916 49.723 66.009 61.317 57.010
1991 55.851 43.040 61.645 57.709 71.728 59.564 58.420 62.683 107.709 53.063 57.701
1992 61.245 36.052 41.902 47.563 50.168 46.908 58.356 48.467 64.891 57.263 70.799
1993 57.884 34.152 38.358 40.423 61.888 55.784 55.527 34.530 72.598 63.370 90.795
1994 87.147 26.359 39.684 34.900 44.524 89.714 63.480 58.437 39.520 42.562 47.725
1995 51.325 28.179 70.451 42.583 60.393 65.432 44.497 42.667 61.285 52.585 65.049
1996 70.847 49.796 40.615 42.784 44.238 65.915 69.192 52.135 45.243 48.871 52.867
1997 62.948 36.733 55.528 43.956 66.720 74.457 57.034 45.690 77.909 56.533 55.592
1998 49.476 50.848 125.290 45.219 43.752 39.602 41.113 50.495 71.003 54.124 51.721
1999 56.529 22.762 38.661 41.919 48.537 54.054 50.627 35.873 50.185 49.831 52.103
2000 78.700 77.763 45.894 52.427 49.398 44.051 57.916 71.665 50.393 46.548 47.229
2001 60.230 57.672 43.718 77.101 62.909 43.340 45.572 47.612 56.906 60.763 62.241
2002 41.117 29.266 84.130 42.676 52.096 46.781 35.891 33.758 77.057 51.833 61.174
2003 41.489 40.540 46.718 49.627 45.809 34.635 36.626 37.572 47.858 45.796 60.778
2004 48.706 41.812 46.583 43.754 48.329 56.237 52.078 44.407 55.718 45.198 54.703
2005 71.311 59.499 79.389 62.475 55.058 42.576 44.228 44.922 81.182 65.077 53.880
2006 48.911 47.515 70.055 81.187 76.848 58.078 51.622 39.008 76.583 74.657 78.831
2007 91.162 51.422 63.353 58.746 63.834 83.860 95.844 73.809 64.370 46.132 55.743
2008 66.043 44.066 51.310 41.816 43.674 46.856 41.958 43.551 50.308 35.806 46.298
2009 56.515 52.929 54.830 46.585 50.215 46.432 43.709 36.870 40.323 46.080 44.550
2010 43.646 38.530 94.460 61.477 55.007 57.960 46.626 32.597 95.449 65.436 58.752
2011 53.593 45.854 54.204 59.351 72.628 58.360 42.261 46.165 47.218 64.945 71.789
2012 44.686 49.069 45.860 54.493 45.303 37.464 35.287 36.022 66.125 51.986 44.360

AAiT - 134 - BY:ABENEZER E.

 Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

….Con't
Grid No. 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57
Longitude 38.5 38.5 38.5 39 39 39 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 40 40
Latitude 10 9.5 9 12 11.5 10 11.5 11 10.5 9.5 9 11 9
1983 63.735 41.440 61.615 68.588 50.289 36.917 45.313 37.166 45.799 31.637 36.337 27.929 35.560
1984 44.839 54.779 54.820 30.601 33.298 32.995 33.281 47.130 47.113 32.365 30.291 33.919 26.824
1985 52.588 55.563 50.903 32.945 33.169 37.229 33.557 51.270 45.687 44.458 41.113 43.653 33.282
1986 51.449 45.328 57.098 55.062 60.695 38.446 65.698 60.751 63.349 43.886 42.153 38.031 27.688
1987 33.625 31.653 39.765 22.718 32.828 27.104 25.790 30.649 28.364 34.982 40.300 22.118 39.031
1988 77.264 57.334 55.287 69.744 69.543 55.730 81.401 66.480 50.760 43.379 39.351 53.862 24.975
1989 57.477 52.397 51.127 29.824 37.382 37.631 38.119 45.505 49.683 48.671 54.835 31.822 40.772
1990 46.974 58.457 46.145 36.561 51.385 38.323 37.455 53.259 60.802 28.514 28.707 72.512 33.591
1991 48.174 62.415 62.623 36.197 49.055 27.738 38.155 43.298 66.729 39.910 32.473 33.290 28.780
1992 59.418 60.711 51.541 42.519 55.990 37.447 40.392 58.769 61.800 51.035 51.558 36.968 48.427
1993 76.008 51.248 36.251 77.623 90.724 56.812 109.280 119.950 121.160 41.341 39.282 121.800 61.212
1994 56.537 61.128 60.058 43.574 45.927 43.662 53.605 64.226 59.609 33.785 61.548 51.927 54.091
1995 56.994 52.100 54.914 64.267 53.925 36.386 55.781 49.645 40.454 31.903 32.721 48.113 41.441
1996 65.260 61.909 54.057 37.861 46.988 50.476 45.743 40.104 45.276 35.693 38.495 31.840 48.097
1997 63.708 56.137 47.072 35.533 42.047 41.017 40.505 53.175 47.909 39.053 41.885 37.961 27.437
1998 49.479 40.559 45.879 70.386 60.339 49.017 66.081 61.124 51.339 38.356 42.494 50.723 30.935
1999 52.598 47.858 41.405 42.861 48.396 39.162 50.739 53.410 54.560 28.083 27.186 43.208 20.272
2000 46.904 47.312 52.703 78.783 53.155 39.574 64.529 40.664 52.267 36.359 44.343 58.816 58.344
2001 44.273 43.842 55.526 46.911 55.943 33.138 73.550 67.405 54.974 29.897 39.917 56.586 40.632
2002 51.864 42.809 51.191 107.330 137.040 37.735 161.960 149.620 65.998 28.177 22.949 176.080 20.616
2003 49.590 44.489 55.463 39.316 45.950 35.839 56.348 51.963 47.183 31.527 30.185 48.396 21.233
2004 49.480 56.469 45.141 42.184 41.639 33.844 43.592 46.975 42.923 40.240 51.772 38.317 35.185
2005 44.354 49.663 45.322 53.339 77.333 39.365 61.587 60.436 47.042 38.203 29.819 47.559 23.519
2006 66.588 54.260 51.513 58.524 84.742 50.951 84.177 67.633 48.301 37.286 38.522 51.096 27.339
2007 73.463 98.466 79.872 52.252 51.166 55.850 48.908 45.611 50.973 60.411 55.957 45.597 36.332
2008 53.819 62.564 66.396 44.283 52.174 43.047 53.331 47.682 52.738 29.336 24.901 44.909 20.844
2009 57.042 50.733 45.881 50.287 36.085 44.231 37.788 58.324 53.128 31.742 32.884 56.401 39.984
2010 60.373 43.037 28.543 62.462 73.430 34.730 53.287 49.778 34.921 26.752 35.270 32.862 23.795
2011 60.086 48.251 51.543 42.653 41.540 38.170 39.816 45.187 39.833 31.566 37.779 40.319 24.843
2012 37.970 35.666 43.526 39.204 55.686 29.557 42.248 43.853 43.177 40.474 44.981 33.630 47.482

AAiT - 135 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

ECMWF- 2 day for 0.5 by 0.5 grid Size, year 1983-2012

Grid No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Longitude 34.5 34.5 35.0 35.5 35.5 35.5 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.5 36.5 36.5
Latitude 10.0 9.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.0 10.5 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 11.5 11.0 10.0
1983 136.2 90.5 130.545 139.736 74.593 41.913 71.773 89.029 65.610 71.582 62.573 60.889 55.837 71.484
1984 46.8 36.7 42.143 54.559 45.456 41.634 52.665 63.114 55.959 45.333 38.911 68.292 49.910 52.356
1985 35.0 28.5 37.900 38.198 42.962 46.762 59.908 47.822 47.526 44.591 47.810 54.072 49.802 62.875
1986 80.5 85.2 73.817 95.734 86.293 55.650 57.985 88.988 85.986 64.821 54.243 74.290 56.711 64.820
1987 74.1 76.1 81.279 99.935 98.974 108.761 58.484 98.355 105.443 106.452 102.424 47.675 51.726 69.895
1988 47.5 69.2 58.305 68.629 55.866 57.532 66.578 63.480 53.907 54.449 71.790 71.266 61.034 67.266
1989 68.1 70.7 96.506 83.011 68.590 145.330 90.328 69.681 73.386 91.724 116.695 87.313 73.143 81.696
1990 75.8 84.1 99.942 139.883 119.609 78.268 75.644 144.242 139.877 110.495 69.517 61.662 75.757 106.055
1991 55.1 65.4 59.962 87.913 89.752 78.233 69.520 75.446 87.403 83.066 71.575 76.554 67.072 63.390
1992 43.1 52.9 51.590 78.208 56.249 43.289 67.965 102.662 89.203 60.711 40.534 58.662 60.183 93.370
1993 65.5 55.9 54.496 59.827 43.447 42.302 72.855 74.704 65.691 44.687 44.327 111.524 87.142 74.846
1994 37.4 30.6 49.002 58.552 41.094 68.295 58.289 59.360 48.665 53.914 63.783 67.913 60.201 57.038
1995 47.8 48.1 47.776 62.275 64.977 55.056 61.606 67.385 79.581 69.319 56.003 61.324 53.728 50.738
1996 90.1 84.1 106.178 96.864 81.173 100.259 89.136 90.689 84.005 80.066 97.155 59.192 69.458 75.086
1997 47.9 40.7 67.322 58.575 50.959 52.022 73.530 58.004 53.799 60.093 52.156 60.491 72.839 59.698
1998 118.6 59.7 107.990 89.540 92.486 49.445 99.788 84.693 80.977 70.751 54.731 82.793 94.277 70.690
1999 55.6 92.6 56.247 60.494 53.625 55.157 50.421 61.175 60.911 48.140 40.674 71.517 55.886 62.541
2000 77.3 79.4 72.224 103.863 98.040 81.117 86.678 120.858 121.899 111.942 87.582 84.401 82.709 85.390
2001 131.6 118.7 117.320 123.411 124.108 100.911 65.034 101.806 118.500 125.935 107.158 58.501 58.154 71.482
2002 43.6 46.4 54.914 47.849 40.491 55.286 64.270 61.051 62.989 53.953 49.612 56.321 57.294 63.622
2003 78.2 65.8 74.824 112.350 92.307 56.049 64.056 86.852 80.961 48.661 59.356 87.554 58.718 56.820
2004 36.5 31.7 51.862 96.477 66.008 26.420 63.316 57.857 55.164 39.676 35.162 51.192 54.740 67.899
2005 73.4 72.8 79.983 94.888 74.656 103.912 85.653 109.910 95.170 81.972 96.240 86.627 77.295 118.505
2006 74.7 76.6 98.503 78.068 56.775 79.397 65.621 78.254 78.817 78.218 70.168 72.252 74.351 60.204
2007 44.7 51.9 61.555 118.269 105.710 62.552 68.214 94.652 101.160 77.162 49.882 84.251 74.168 60.815
2008 58.4 67.3 57.920 65.613 76.667 70.114 82.072 62.555 75.316 68.210 55.258 102.567 70.403 71.494
2009 73.2 43.8 79.032 70.548 79.674 77.612 79.062 80.994 96.181 64.856 57.360 68.121 74.144 55.915
2010 63.3 78.4 63.852 67.909 63.511 113.529 86.790 69.270 55.212 64.538 84.536 50.095 71.688 72.564
2011 126.0 129.2 116.210 145.023 92.993 103.243 126.007 127.324 88.665 76.474 94.158 78.890 78.828 80.529
2012 48.3 62.0 55.660 145.795 179.621 129.574 85.987 121.055 188.924 167.904 148.689 99.157 94.813 79.315

AAiT - 136 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

….Con't
Grid No. 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Longitude 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
Latitude 9.5 9 8.5 8 12.5 12 11.5 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 8.5 8
1983 66.843 62.08 77.821 63.166 47.59 57.971 70.032 66.976 68.74 74.361 64.719 69.946 74.366 51.496
1984 65.196 77.196 58.224 46.886 87.627 74.785 71.296 62.309 48.378 45.92 83.084 118.14 74.082 56.577
1985 54.459 37.828 39.963 49.317 76.731 55.097 69.247 69.792 71.751 64.52 61.937 54.582 43.499 57.822
1986 77.417 63.944 60.888 58.6 38.041 58.306 64.52 54.92 52.989 66.515 71.542 73.673 60.998 55.527
1987 87.027 88.494 94.565 89.482 49.89 43.854 63.19 64.992 74.9 79.869 71.446 78.007 83.486 71.339
1988 62.806 49.57 50.683 64.134 63.212 67.236 69.842 72.06 75.14 68.906 82.727 67.299 56.542 55.185
1989 63.296 48.008 55.642 61.986 60.238 57.249 80.864 86.587 90.211 73.795 54.266 57.766 52.718 62.19
1990 135.91 115.97 86.341 68.264 36.632 43.449 62.97 85.231 72.684 88.873 120.58 103.48 75.513 65.105
1991 69.828 65.824 77.007 64.53 73.658 61.32 66.764 65.177 64.836 59.702 80.394 80.159 63.16 63.731
1992 110.98 92.664 68.925 46.309 68.838 60.429 51.622 67.024 72.888 74.084 99.018 85.635 58.014 51.667
1993 81.307 63.409 51.844 44.513 58.961 88.321 114.92 99.851 93.657 64.894 81.06 73.383 51.006 48.45
1994 60.835 43.471 50.257 51.907 44.524 63.068 87.124 76.346 66.591 88.646 76.497 51.409 43.302 41.291
1995 67.969 74.155 69.869 57.694 77.376 65.159 58.652 53.966 63.159 59.512 61.946 73.021 66.167 56.699
1996 79.053 82.601 83.209 82.722 45.322 50.656 46.141 68.55 80.964 79.007 102.6 121.5 108.15 88.044
1997 63.305 55.211 63.006 60.806 44.881 60.767 57.043 81.25 92.398 68.411 65.036 58.471 66.155 67.231
1998 93.429 86.567 76.472 55.761 184.22 153.68 94.236 80.837 76.91 66.861 92.445 87.89 73.364 62.24
1999 65.789 45.499 48.67 46.233 93.416 84.627 79.883 58.77 65.938 70.409 74.531 57.16 53.852 55.461
2000 122.66 124.7 118.99 94.052 61.52 72.112 83.311 90.398 102.61 95.133 103.24 136.91 126.55 108.29
2001 81.087 103.13 119.4 102.82 46.614 56.987 69.033 73.523 64.957 69.111 89.779 92.588 96.563 84.439
2002 54.394 59.486 58.706 45.071 62.118 54.994 48.342 78.233 73.807 58.684 45.249 56.65 47.829 50.81
2003 55.769 46.879 52.829 57.316 83.829 78.398 91.758 79.726 65.995 58.935 64.899 65.816 44.026 50.116
2004 67.052 52.367 42.449 42.115 61.443 64.498 64.737 52.032 66.376 69.011 73.178 56.846 49.971 50.571
2005 121.35 87.179 74.013 91.059 80.784 75.04 90.289 81.443 99.686 118.92 132.12 88.495 68.584 77.135
2006 85.605 77.693 71.636 62.033 54.061 49.225 54.291 76.851 70.301 54.648 85.972 80.89 65.795 57.974
2007 58.922 67.212 74.482 49.457 79.79 91.139 92.933 81.381 75.983 76.213 80.369 66.838 59.241 57.971
2008 56.65 57.249 53.97 54.248 92.497 92.226 82.001 69.597 64.133 60.879 77.864 57.937 51.273 56.13
2009 83.123 76.947 56.805 47.065 57.484 64.233 64.491 63.341 68.825 69.546 78.733 68.963 49.316 46.489
2010 72.443 53.481 58.467 59.804 55.94 51.351 45.188 62.334 63.546 57.608 54.798 50.748 51.634 57.198
2011 73.077 56.312 64.87 73.168 64.029 69.26 78.535 66.217 81.801 63.454 70.036 71.957 60.201 61.018
2012 76.499 90.158 123.34 121.56 69.358 81.307 99.932 104.04 97.627 79.093 81.31 80.861 63.567 51.705

AAiT - 137 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

….Con't
Grid No. 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
Longitude 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.5
Latitude 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 9.5 8.0 12.0 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 11.5
1983 57.3 70.4 83.2 67.3 52.8 53.4 49.4 93.7 70.0 68.8 64.9 42.5 55.3 115.5
1984 62.8 58.6 61.5 76.6 59.0 89.3 46.9 58.9 82.4 74.2 75.2 68.9 57.1 71.2
1985 65.9 63.6 66.9 76.0 81.5 84.9 56.5 60.0 67.4 82.5 87.2 70.2 52.0 57.9
1986 41.7 49.9 54.3 55.4 59.2 74.8 50.1 54.9 60.1 65.9 70.6 64.9 56.8 90.8
1987 46.2 40.5 50.6 69.1 63.5 55.7 58.1 50.8 47.7 54.8 42.9 39.2 53.2 55.6
1988 64.1 66.3 68.2 77.9 80.0 76.8 45.8 72.8 87.5 87.8 79.2 77.9 75.0 97.9
1989 53.0 55.1 73.6 89.7 84.2 56.8 75.6 59.6 80.1 87.6 74.9 56.8 55.3 68.3
1990 39.9 46.1 75.6 78.7 74.8 88.5 45.9 53.4 88.1 88.8 59.0 64.3 51.8 73.9
1991 66.1 63.2 92.1 81.6 77.0 64.5 47.9 105.9 110.3 81.9 69.3 76.3 76.9 170.5
1992 60.5 63.3 66.6 67.7 64.2 73.5 52.2 79.3 69.6 59.8 61.2 71.6 60.9 94.2
1993 67.5 70.4 94.1 77.9 87.6 78.6 45.0 53.0 64.0 103.9 96.2 80.5 55.1 88.6
1994 34.7 59.0 72.5 71.4 78.2 102.1 38.0 49.6 67.4 61.8 107.8 78.5 60.0 67.9
1995 72.3 73.3 53.4 56.5 66.3 51.3 42.0 83.0 62.0 73.3 65.4 53.5 54.0 84.5
1996 48.2 51.4 50.0 45.5 62.9 96.8 79.2 50.6 55.6 63.8 83.0 77.3 96.8 68.2
1997 68.5 48.8 36.3 72.1 87.0 65.1 48.6 71.1 54.0 70.6 78.4 62.0 51.7 81.9
1998 182.8 146.6 88.6 61.2 61.2 70.1 62.8 146.8 66.2 65.7 49.6 57.3 60.7 93.6
1999 62.5 65.2 59.7 61.1 65.8 79.2 37.4 70.0 58.8 63.5 74.4 76.3 62.9 64.0
2000 59.7 78.5 79.6 78.1 96.6 79.8 100.8 74.7 69.2 57.5 50.2 57.9 80.6 73.8
2001 70.6 60.1 82.1 78.1 68.2 81.3 57.7 75.5 86.6 64.4 55.3 63.8 65.7 71.9
2002 70.9 65.1 56.9 57.8 59.9 44.4 49.4 102.6 61.4 56.0 48.6 40.4 39.8 118.8
2003 82.9 68.3 93.6 89.2 64.0 57.8 42.0 61.4 66.1 56.8 50.9 55.8 46.7 69.3
2004 52.5 59.8 73.8 57.4 50.5 69.6 49.7 63.9 62.5 78.8 76.7 69.0 61.1 76.9
2005 100.2 96.5 81.1 80.0 86.0 103.9 73.8 100.3 75.1 71.6 70.2 70.5 74.2 88.7
2006 68.0 63.0 87.5 83.4 67.2 71.1 48.4 70.1 97.8 87.8 58.5 60.6 51.2 99.9
2007 79.7 92.1 91.1 79.8 81.3 103.1 51.4 93.8 72.5 103.3 101.2 109.6 88.1 96.6
2008 72.2 77.2 74.9 66.9 54.4 84.4 50.2 68.8 73.2 73.8 68.2 60.9 64.3 76.9
2009 56.3 61.1 56.3 65.5 63.2 76.9 78.3 63.0 64.6 75.0 60.9 65.9 49.8 58.1
2010 84.5 82.9 73.4 56.9 55.0 54.4 53.3 112.2 72.5 56.1 66.7 54.1 34.4 121.5
2011 61.3 69.2 55.7 81.9 97.1 63.6 66.9 69.1 79.5 105.7 70.8 50.9 67.5 65.0
2012 64.3 85.6 102.2 98.1 91.0 55.0 63.5 78.0 84.6 65.7 60.1 57.6 56.1 76.4

AAiT - 138 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
….Con't
Grid No. 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57
Longitude 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 40.0 40.0
Latitude 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 12.0 11.5 10.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 9.5 9.0 11.0 9.0
1983 75.6 73.6 64.5 47.9 68.1 85.8 59.9 46.0 51.2 43.1 53.1 42.7 45.7 33.0 42.0
1984 78.5 65.8 59.0 72.5 56.7 51.2 49.5 39.9 45.1 66.9 63.7 41.9 47.8 38.7 44.5
1985 67.1 71.9 62.6 64.2 61.9 37.6 52.9 46.5 52.7 63.6 61.9 49.5 49.3 59.5 39.0
1986 82.9 60.9 58.8 56.1 59.4 82.8 103.3 56.5 104.0 107.1 102.9 65.9 62.9 60.1 41.1
1987 52.2 49.9 38.8 45.4 48.5 40.0 48.2 38.7 45.2 52.3 51.2 55.2 64.6 35.9 65.3
1988 96.6 99.4 87.4 73.7 66.2 83.9 88.9 75.0 109.0 96.8 83.7 59.9 50.7 82.9 33.7
1989 60.6 57.9 64.7 57.3 57.5 40.2 40.6 42.4 50.3 50.1 54.9 58.0 62.4 50.0 52.4
1990 86.9 74.7 49.5 61.5 60.2 43.5 60.1 38.3 47.8 86.8 103.8 39.2 37.9 115.0 44.2
1991 83.1 66.8 66.8 66.0 79.6 59.6 62.4 53.2 57.7 66.8 83.6 60.9 58.7 40.7 53.1
1992 75.0 76.8 59.4 71.9 67.6 64.3 78.7 50.0 58.6 70.0 73.8 65.8 63.8 45.9 54.4
1993 101.4 156.8 136.8 98.3 55.0 90.6 101.7 100.0 120.5 130.2 155.7 69.4 53.7 133.9 100.2
1994 64.7 77.0 65.4 78.0 75.5 53.3 60.2 52.8 70.0 80.4 87.4 61.8 94.8 84.0 92.0
1995 75.6 75.6 57.3 60.9 66.6 73.5 74.2 38.7 71.2 73.2 66.9 47.2 46.8 70.0 57.2
1996 69.2 66.7 80.8 72.4 74.5 57.5 66.7 66.2 75.3 60.9 72.2 53.1 66.6 48.9 82.3
1997 67.3 68.9 69.1 65.1 56.8 47.7 63.6 49.4 45.6 58.8 54.3 54.7 52.9 55.0 42.9
1998 81.3 61.4 53.0 54.0 56.2 87.3 89.2 55.5 93.2 100.5 80.6 57.2 51.6 83.2 37.3
1999 60.6 69.0 70.9 76.0 76.6 71.8 65.9 61.4 60.9 74.0 78.3 48.6 45.1 60.9 30.2
2000 58.6 58.1 49.5 48.8 58.5 133.8 62.2 44.5 80.1 56.6 74.5 67.3 56.4 74.7 66.0
2001 74.6 62.2 58.7 59.9 63.6 65.7 80.5 49.1 103.0 100.0 87.6 47.6 53.0 81.8 40.6
2002 57.5 61.2 55.2 44.9 51.2 155.7 174.0 42.9 214.9 185.2 77.2 31.9 41.3 219.8 40.1
2003 70.5 70.7 58.5 56.7 57.7 50.7 75.1 52.2 76.9 86.4 82.7 48.7 42.8 65.2 30.3
2004 60.9 67.5 66.5 63.0 53.4 47.8 55.7 43.7 49.0 51.9 64.1 42.9 53.7 53.3 39.5
2005 76.5 69.4 54.0 74.6 72.1 64.6 91.9 58.2 94.2 101.2 87.8 67.0 54.2 91.6 35.0
2006 74.9 78.8 68.4 55.4 54.7 78.3 112.6 60.3 113.7 100.0 77.1 41.8 43.4 76.4 35.4
2007 70.8 86.3 103.4 117.1 100.2 97.4 81.2 76.8 56.4 70.1 75.9 88.3 80.2 60.1 45.8
2008 61.4 65.4 66.4 62.6 69.2 81.8 86.3 51.3 98.3 80.1 77.0 48.3 42.0 83.9 36.0
2009 65.5 58.7 63.9 59.2 65.3 59.5 56.0 51.8 64.7 90.4 81.3 52.5 50.2 98.3 40.0
2010 83.5 67.9 66.6 48.0 42.6 88.4 105.9 41.0 84.6 80.1 56.9 30.0 45.1 50.4 34.3
2011 64.9 81.5 64.9 58.6 67.0 59.9 57.2 42.4 53.8 56.5 60.6 53.4 61.8 79.5 42.6
2012 67.0 65.5 62.7 61.4 52.7 54.3 64.2 46.9 61.5 63.8 73.0 56.4 64.9 51.4 59.8

AAiT - 139 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

ECMWF- 3 day for 0.5 by 0.5 grid Size, year 1983-2012

Grid No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Longitude 34.5 34.5 35 35.5 35.5 35.5 36 36 36 36 36 36.5 36.5 36.5
Latitude 10 9.5 10 9.5 9 8 10.5 9.5 9 8.5 8 11.5 11 10
1983 136.2 90.8 132.1 146.2 79.1 44.0 82.2 111.6 85.2 73.0 60.7 65.9 73.4 85.3
1984 46.8 36.7 42.8 60.0 52.5 50.1 63.6 66.8 61.2 50.0 46.6 83.2 65.4 61.7
1985 35.0 28.5 41.1 38.2 43.0 47.9 63.0 47.8 47.8 44.6 51.5 76.4 70.4 62.9
1986 98.1 90.6 99.6 96.9 86.3 58.7 69.4 89.0 86.0 64.8 54.2 80.5 64.5 55.4
1987 88.8 103.1 86.8 97.8 94.7 91.6 62.6 88.9 95.6 93.8 82.8 56.2 52.5 67.1
1988 60.2 69.2 62.8 70.2 63.8 68.7 71.4 67.3 76.7 68.6 76.4 71.3 66.7 74.1
1989 69.8 76.5 96.5 84.8 70.0 149.1 104.5 88.5 78.6 92.4 118.9 91.0 94.9 82.7
1990 78.7 86.5 93.9 128.4 106.6 62.7 111.6 134.9 126.9 92.0 77.3 86.3 102.2 106.5
1991 55.1 65.4 60.0 95.1 89.8 78.2 83.8 92.0 98.6 87.6 71.6 128.0 88.8 81.6
1992 43.1 54.6 52.2 68.0 76.3 65.6 92.0 82.8 79.9 81.7 58.0 87.8 96.1 81.8
1993 61.8 66.9 49.0 67.0 47.4 49.7 75.6 78.1 67.3 50.8 59.5 111.5 87.7 75.5
1994 48.3 39.5 57.3 68.8 53.1 84.1 63.2 77.4 71.1 65.1 71.7 77.6 63.1 67.4
1995 50.6 53.3 58.9 68.2 70.4 62.2 61.6 71.6 85.1 74.2 61.1 61.3 53.7 56.9
1996 79.7 82.5 96.8 88.1 85.0 109.8 80.1 82.5 75.9 84.6 102.6 64.6 80.9 86.3
1997 53.4 58.3 75.9 88.2 81.1 58.4 68.3 77.4 82.5 65.6 53.7 54.9 68.4 71.8
1998 138.7 79.7 132.0 104.6 92.9 67.8 116.7 88.9 87.4 76.6 69.8 93.6 96.6 75.0
1999 63.6 70.6 60.4 59.6 56.9 61.0 79.2 61.3 62.9 51.0 45.9 76.8 57.3 62.5
2000 86.9 94.7 90.8 105.2 100.0 88.0 117.5 123.2 125.4 113.4 91.7 107.8 113.4 103.8
2001 131.6 118.7 117.3 123.4 124.1 100.9 76.9 101.8 118.5 125.9 107.2 88.0 86.4 80.4
2002 40.2 41.4 54.9 47.8 47.6 65.2 64.3 67.3 70.6 60.8 63.1 70.1 57.3 63.6
2003 78.2 66.1 75.1 114.5 94.3 72.2 72.1 88.2 82.8 66.6 75.9 107.4 70.3 59.4
2004 40.6 36.4 58.6 86.5 54.0 38.0 86.4 57.9 58.7 44.0 44.3 52.5 67.8 67.9
2005 73.4 78.1 86.6 78.3 79.9 112.9 95.8 70.9 70.2 90.8 107.9 92.6 97.1 94.5
2006 74.5 76.7 104.9 87.2 71.4 86.5 81.4 97.3 101.2 97.7 83.4 74.8 83.1 75.8
2007 62.2 60.2 71.3 119.9 109.3 78.3 75.7 101.0 108.2 80.8 49.9 100.8 94.6 70.1
2008 86.3 81.0 91.4 89.6 76.7 70.3 111.1 72.0 75.3 68.2 52.8 108.2 100.4 79.8
2009 74.0 77.8 75.2 81.4 88.9 85.1 71.3 91.4 106.0 75.0 68.3 82.1 89.4 62.7
2010 86.3 109.8 77.8 87.8 98.9 132.1 122.4 92.7 82.0 88.3 103.8 91.3 98.5 89.6
2011 120.4 124.3 127.3 179.0 99.6 126.1 137.5 174.0 129.1 106.1 119.6 88.9 94.1 97.1
2012 58.6 64.2 61.9 152.7 182.6 133.6 93.4 126.6 192.5 169.9 152.2 105.2 104.4 82.1

AAiT - 140 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
….Con't
Grid No. 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Longitude 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
Latitude 9.5 9 8.5 8 12.5 12 11.5 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 8.5 8
1983 89.9 84.8 79.2 62.8 56.2 58.3 78.8 81.2 84.0 94.2 87.7 86.6 81.4 57.8
1984 65.8 69.5 58.7 49.4 109.3 95.6 97.0 78.3 63.4 51.9 70.4 112.0 75.7 66.0
1985 54.5 49.9 53.4 49.3 84.1 65.9 98.6 94.9 85.2 67.2 60.0 65.5 54.4 57.8
1986 77.4 63.9 62.1 61.4 62.4 70.9 73.9 69.1 63.1 55.4 73.2 73.6 64.1 67.3
1987 79.4 81.6 83.6 73.1 39.2 47.1 64.2 69.5 77.1 80.9 71.4 73.6 75.4 59.8
1988 81.0 72.0 68.1 65.6 63.2 67.2 69.8 81.1 85.4 81.4 107.5 94.9 68.8 65.4
1989 86.2 72.1 71.8 64.6 74.7 75.4 88.0 101.2 96.4 73.8 72.1 70.4 63.6 72.1
1990 129.9 107.1 76.4 77.2 41.8 66.3 87.0 105.7 95.5 96.3 120.5 99.9 81.8 70.9
1991 79.0 79.7 84.1 65.9 74.7 78.3 84.0 93.7 88.4 79.2 80.3 78.9 70.3 63.8
1992 91.5 75.9 66.2 66.0 72.2 61.7 92.0 100.2 91.6 75.5 94.1 79.5 71.1 72.8
1993 81.3 63.4 54.8 55.9 61.4 88.3 116.7 101.6 97.9 67.6 84.7 73.4 55.8 61.5
1994 78.0 67.4 62.1 57.2 59.5 75.3 85.1 75.4 78.5 100.0 90.0 70.5 59.5 62.8
1995 71.1 76.4 71.8 60.3 73.8 75.1 80.9 66.7 63.2 60.0 64.1 75.3 67.8 58.5
1996 82.8 89.8 90.7 84.4 45.3 59.4 74.6 82.6 94.9 95.9 111.8 126.2 110.9 91.1
1997 76.1 60.7 71.3 58.1 60.0 53.8 55.3 88.0 96.2 82.2 82.8 68.1 69.0 64.9
1998 95.6 86.9 80.1 79.6 201.4 168.2 103.3 89.9 86.2 69.8 94.1 87.9 86.5 100.4
1999 65.8 46.5 50.4 48.1 99.9 84.6 81.9 78.6 66.2 70.4 74.5 57.1 49.6 49.3
2000 134.0 128.7 119.0 96.6 71.6 76.9 92.4 106.9 134.7 124.0 125.8 146.5 129.5 109.5
2001 89.9 103.1 119.4 102.8 64.8 78.1 95.6 101.9 92.8 79.5 99.0 97.3 96.6 84.4
2002 61.6 67.1 64.7 61.7 92.4 81.1 68.4 86.3 77.1 59.3 62.0 67.7 56.2 67.4
2003 60.3 57.4 61.3 63.3 117.5 112.5 103.7 94.4 83.3 66.2 76.2 77.8 53.5 54.9
2004 67.1 52.4 49.5 47.1 67.3 68.4 68.6 54.8 66.4 69.0 73.2 67.1 59.5 54.7
2005 95.0 68.7 77.8 98.7 86.9 79.1 95.9 127.5 113.6 105.4 119.7 75.4 70.4 79.9
2006 108.1 108.5 107.4 98.7 69.4 74.8 91.9 83.5 74.7 66.9 113.0 122.8 109.2 104.8
2007 74.0 78.0 81.2 60.3 70.7 83.4 98.8 102.9 86.2 81.9 87.1 81.4 71.6 69.6
2008 66.5 57.2 60.6 51.8 96.3 105.1 105.2 87.4 73.3 68.8 75.3 58.8 59.0 56.2
2009 91.7 90.2 64.7 49.1 70.6 74.2 84.5 103.1 84.7 76.0 99.0 98.9 64.1 54.9
2010 87.5 83.9 73.2 74.3 81.0 66.0 67.0 87.8 88.2 73.9 76.8 82.7 73.3 74.0
2011 120.3 97.2 76.3 96.7 79.6 89.3 85.0 92.3 107.7 82.0 77.5 81.3 73.0 68.5
2012 79.9 92.1 123.9 123.9 68.3 84.9 111.9 120.9 109.3 83.7 82.8 79.4 65.4 61.8
AAiT - 141 - BY:ABENEZER E.
Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
….Con't
Grid No. 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 41
Longitude 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 38 38 38 38 38 38 38
Latitude 12.5 12 11.5 11 10.5 9.5 8 12 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 9
1983 57.3 70.4 83.2 82.6 69.8 75.3 59.5 93.7 77.5 74.5 71.8 70.6 77.2 77.2
1984 75.9 75.5 94.0 76.6 59.6 89.3 66.4 80.5 84.3 75.1 75.2 69.8 65.3 65.3
1985 82.8 79.2 100.7 104.3 98.2 79.0 56.5 78.5 99.8 115.5 101.8 73.7 68.2 68.2
1986 64.4 64.3 68.4 70.2 55.9 96.8 60.7 68.4 91.9 68.8 70.1 92.5 79.1 79.1
1987 45.4 46.3 51.7 73.9 68.6 60.7 60.3 64.9 55.2 64.6 48.8 48.7 60.3 60.3
1988 74.2 69.6 74.8 87.1 90.7 101.1 51.2 80.3 96.5 97.3 97.3 90.2 84.0 84.0
1989 73.2 74.0 85.5 82.7 74.4 68.7 86.7 76.6 74.8 77.2 75.3 72.3 84.3 84.3
1990 49.5 75.7 105.1 104.5 89.1 103.5 53.8 83.0 105.3 94.1 75.7 77.3 64.0 64.0
1991 63.8 74.9 111.6 102.3 99.5 81.3 57.8 111.3 115.4 98.1 86.2 91.3 82.0 82.0
1992 63.6 66.4 83.6 88.3 80.6 75.8 60.9 85.5 82.3 73.6 68.5 76.6 66.6 66.6
1993 67.5 70.4 94.1 85.8 90.4 82.3 62.2 57.8 101.7 129.7 111.1 88.3 78.9 78.9
1994 49.6 63.9 61.0 60.4 94.4 112.9 56.4 55.0 58.0 77.5 120.5 84.8 81.0 81.0
1995 60.8 65.4 70.4 82.0 76.2 60.9 51.9 85.3 80.1 86.8 75.9 63.9 71.1 71.1
1996 65.1 70.8 73.1 72.5 78.9 102.5 80.8 62.6 89.1 86.6 92.1 86.4 96.9 96.9
1997 86.0 63.9 48.8 69.0 82.5 89.9 55.8 84.7 57.7 92.8 103.4 89.8 74.1 74.1
1998 198.2 158.6 94.8 72.5 71.8 70.3 101.6 156.3 81.5 64.4 53.2 61.8 78.7 78.7
1999 92.7 82.0 76.7 82.0 72.6 79.2 39.5 89.9 73.0 73.9 75.5 77.6 66.5 66.5
2000 81.8 86.5 91.7 97.3 122.8 105.8 104.4 89.1 84.7 82.3 74.2 79.8 93.2 93.2
2001 91.4 90.6 101.3 95.9 89.3 88.7 72.5 103.8 100.0 86.2 73.6 68.8 80.2 80.2
2002 94.6 86.2 79.4 69.8 67.2 53.3 65.6 111.5 79.7 72.2 54.2 49.3 42.4 42.4
2003 103.3 97.7 102.1 106.9 89.7 63.5 54.2 82.3 83.5 87.4 64.5 60.0 54.2 54.2
2004 61.9 67.0 78.6 63.3 51.0 64.7 57.3 74.9 88.6 83.3 77.1 66.0 73.5 73.5
2005 88.0 87.3 86.2 111.6 109.0 96.3 82.7 87.1 83.6 99.7 78.0 67.2 58.2 58.2
2006 77.3 78.8 108.2 121.3 87.8 97.4 95.9 87.0 137.9 102.0 79.6 79.4 87.8 87.8
2007 80.6 85.8 89.1 91.7 94.8 114.1 65.4 100.8 85.7 115.0 128.4 122.9 105.0 105.0
2008 83.4 92.8 102.9 90.0 76.6 78.6 52.7 72.8 83.7 89.7 84.2 75.0 66.8 66.8
2009 82.5 78.8 69.7 80.2 82.1 85.3 92.4 94.0 80.1 88.5 75.7 74.9 65.3 65.3
2010 91.6 85.8 73.4 64.2 60.1 54.9 76.9 118.0 74.1 59.4 66.3 50.9 48.5 48.5
2011 74.3 88.7 82.4 107.3 122.5 68.6 78.0 86.5 99.0 125.7 90.0 57.0 67.5 67.5
2012 64.3 90.6 123.7 121.0 107.5 72.9 66.6 95.0 110.2 80.5 63.1 53.9 56.9 56.9
AAiT - 142 - BY:ABENEZER E.
Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
….Con't
Grid No. 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57
Longitude 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 39 39 39 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 40 40
Latitude 11.5 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 12 11.5 10 11.5 11 10.5 9.5 9 11 9
1983 115.5 96.1 93.2 77.5 74.0 93.9 87.5 67.6 64.1 58.5 64.3 75.7 64.7 59.1 37.3 49.5
1984 84.6 81.6 70.4 64.5 79.3 68.3 68.9 61.9 46.7 52.8 73.6 74.2 49.6 60.8 42.7 53.9
1985 78.3 99.6 113.2 95.9 75.8 70.8 51.8 77.7 65.9 80.4 91.5 87.1 56.7 61.8 90.9 55.6
1986 155.1 142.4 106.4 86.0 78.1 69.6 121.1 151.8 75.3 140.3 160.5 138.8 96.6 85.9 69.2 63.7
1987 83.4 62.8 57.8 47.6 60.5 61.8 45.4 45.8 44.7 59.3 70.1 73.7 57.5 73.6 53.7 74.2
1988 104.8 104.5 107.8 97.9 83.2 77.1 112.9 125.4 83.5 163.5 148.1 103.5 79.2 69.6 123.2 43.8
1989 71.8 74.4 77.7 87.6 80.1 83.8 40.0 51.7 64.3 58.3 70.9 86.9 77.3 73.0 66.0 69.6
1990 117.4 94.4 86.3 86.0 92.7 68.0 75.2 76.7 71.4 64.3 95.7 119.5 53.0 64.0 129.7 62.8
1991 170.5 83.1 82.3 79.5 74.7 72.9 59.6 82.6 66.5 57.4 69.8 101.3 72.8 72.9 40.8 68.4
1992 104.5 89.0 87.6 74.8 82.3 77.1 74.6 93.3 62.3 75.8 90.6 86.6 70.0 70.5 65.4 70.9
1993 122.8 130.2 189.6 161.5 117.3 86.7 90.6 122.1 118.6 122.6 154.5 189.1 91.5 70.5 173.4 137.9
1994 68.5 76.1 90.6 74.7 89.7 90.9 63.3 76.7 63.8 77.6 88.7 87.8 74.4 114.7 71.1 121.1
1995 105.0 106.3 91.8 67.6 77.3 86.6 87.7 94.4 55.8 81.4 106.5 106.4 60.7 59.8 76.0 62.6
1996 71.3 94.4 86.9 89.8 80.1 80.0 60.7 68.1 78.8 77.5 75.5 92.7 61.8 75.6 66.3 97.2
1997 81.9 74.2 84.5 99.4 96.9 83.0 72.8 88.2 89.9 66.0 76.7 80.8 93.7 94.1 66.8 70.4
1998 116.4 99.1 70.0 60.8 64.0 90.7 91.0 110.2 71.2 110.7 121.7 101.8 81.8 75.8 100.7 63.6
1999 87.4 87.7 75.6 73.4 80.6 82.7 71.8 81.6 68.1 73.6 88.8 95.3 69.4 56.4 66.4 44.2
2000 97.6 93.2 84.4 65.6 66.9 72.7 145.0 109.5 51.0 128.2 81.2 87.2 52.5 61.2 93.0 71.1
2001 80.1 84.8 84.5 67.7 62.4 75.1 66.7 71.5 56.5 86.1 78.0 67.8 52.0 52.2 64.9 40.9
2002 157.2 73.0 75.4 64.0 49.4 57.3 193.5 247.1 51.7 286.4 243.3 106.1 39.1 48.9 260.7 47.8
2003 85.7 83.1 85.2 69.2 61.7 60.3 67.7 95.2 56.7 92.4 109.3 100.2 57.8 65.4 65.2 42.5
2004 96.1 97.8 96.3 78.0 89.0 80.2 54.0 76.2 64.2 61.2 70.2 76.2 65.3 75.1 53.9 57.5
2005 100.7 87.7 89.4 75.9 66.4 68.5 79.0 106.8 61.8 87.6 80.2 73.3 54.7 62.7 68.6 58.5
2006 154.9 117.6 103.8 88.4 73.4 79.8 98.2 146.6 74.8 140.2 124.6 96.6 57.4 52.0 86.4 44.7
2007 104.9 84.2 112.2 134.6 133.5 122.7 102.0 81.7 88.6 64.9 99.8 111.0 102.4 93.5 88.2 53.7
2008 82.8 74.5 95.4 87.4 78.6 74.4 86.0 91.4 68.7 102.7 107.4 100.5 72.8 57.9 98.0 53.7
2009 76.8 82.4 94.0 84.3 73.1 78.8 81.9 74.9 61.8 67.7 95.3 90.8 66.6 65.5 103.9 47.2
2010 128.5 87.9 67.1 64.6 48.2 55.5 92.7 111.4 42.4 90.7 86.8 73.2 38.0 50.4 64.1 41.6
2011 74.4 87.4 94.1 75.2 63.9 92.2 59.9 72.1 54.8 70.6 82.7 69.7 62.2 56.5 87.6 53.2
2012 106.6 96.8 84.0 70.6 66.9 67.7 73.7 98.0 63.9 83.4 86.2 69.5 66.8 79.7 67.6 69.0

AAiT - 143 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
Table B.4 Annual Maximum Rainfall of ECWMF-With Bias Corrected for 0.5 by 0.5 grid Size (mm)
ECMWF- with bias corrected 1-day for 0.5 by 0.5 grid Size, year 1983-2012
Grid No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Longitude 34.5 34.5 35 35.5 35.5 35.5 36 36 36 36 36 36.5 36.5 36.5
Latitude 10 9.5 10 9.5 9 8 10.5 9.5 9 8.5 8 11.5 11 10
1983 47.172 31.649 37.812 40.081 31.067 23.029 30.141 38.908 33.584 32.530 28.116 31.021 32.133 34.077
1984 44.798 33.613 39.662 49.178 26.439 27.353 27.235 58.972 50.932 23.837 27.006 32.341 28.953 50.099
1985 21.663 21.278 31.232 27.131 27.531 25.312 45.049 26.227 29.309 27.446 24.872 31.437 29.746 29.572
1986 26.813 30.916 28.103 45.780 42.729 28.422 27.971 44.595 44.128 33.350 23.574 34.803 30.333 32.847
1987 32.403 35.617 35.261 45.632 45.594 46.430 31.528 45.328 48.065 47.298 42.858 30.807 26.740 44.990
1988 27.006 28.831 28.458 30.357 26.481 26.435 27.595 30.100 28.605 28.551 27.028 38.450 30.112 30.862
1989 32.940 32.686 44.508 36.296 28.150 48.963 53.052 31.679 25.124 30.941 41.245 39.907 45.656 32.604
1990 39.512 42.005 50.160 67.136 54.032 55.493 36.162 69.778 64.377 46.385 56.942 28.988 33.379 51.245
1991 30.727 34.065 30.342 37.514 36.232 29.521 36.175 31.722 33.774 30.425 26.143 38.427 34.472 32.364
1992 22.336 25.082 28.195 35.540 25.886 22.166 34.989 44.294 41.676 24.721 19.444 28.927 32.848 41.569
1993 26.441 25.379 27.141 30.773 24.463 17.306 34.661 32.230 29.012 21.590 22.047 52.222 41.063 32.007
1994 17.698 20.756 24.560 30.085 29.781 28.509 31.063 33.521 39.892 33.815 25.111 33.112 29.483 31.703
1995 22.658 22.249 30.309 28.470 25.268 24.604 35.256 31.375 30.741 25.082 23.602 28.042 23.642 35.638
1996 38.769 34.259 47.975 38.916 36.950 52.770 34.186 42.827 37.367 44.919 52.084 27.435 29.965 32.104
1997 37.841 23.005 41.768 34.952 28.847 26.864 30.704 28.882 27.545 25.602 22.699 31.775 28.252 34.618
1998 47.687 29.429 42.690 35.125 27.179 23.072 41.849 43.922 38.199 28.020 21.457 37.854 37.076 35.239
1999 35.825 35.080 38.020 29.875 25.762 24.785 33.801 30.490 29.736 23.234 19.745 36.565 30.220 30.995
2000 29.119 29.996 34.355 48.706 43.810 35.411 43.207 59.506 57.492 50.958 36.757 37.751 39.467 44.320
2001 55.864 56.435 54.822 57.687 59.984 50.240 35.586 48.791 57.603 60.763 52.836 34.367 34.520 37.563
2002 23.324 26.864 28.283 28.303 24.506 30.305 33.236 30.544 30.503 27.543 29.353 26.213 23.166 30.037
2003 33.408 31.400 34.272 45.552 39.070 31.486 28.559 38.016 35.585 30.265 29.527 35.373 28.728 30.505
2004 32.441 26.524 27.324 36.789 25.027 19.532 31.771 31.595 29.533 22.527 18.922 26.558 29.019 33.702
2005 39.070 35.771 36.556 35.237 29.393 39.571 35.963 32.289 35.561 37.361 36.308 40.728 35.927 41.305
2006 35.983 37.831 42.512 37.103 42.917 36.195 39.362 36.271 43.342 35.394 34.139 30.436 37.005 29.258
2007 28.725 31.185 31.154 48.286 40.633 55.718 36.603 41.816 40.506 30.874 27.031 37.217 37.669 33.083
2008 44.227 57.275 42.577 35.348 33.654 31.509 42.049 32.656 33.689 31.926 27.390 41.361 37.426 37.332
2009 32.320 25.160 32.912 40.437 44.732 31.349 32.425 45.361 52.740 37.806 23.246 31.358 32.742 30.121
2010 47.568 45.554 51.887 39.897 34.190 48.136 84.057 45.218 37.738 39.820 34.085 46.458 69.110 59.751
2011 119.459 122.977 108.051 105.794 74.754 38.756 49.317 63.173 48.404 36.633 37.065 76.219 54.759 33.525
2012 26.002 34.342 23.700 46.940 54.507 43.340 39.458 40.955 56.308 44.343 34.505 44.236 41.814 30.478

AAiT - 144 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
….Con't
Grid No. 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Longitude 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
Latitude 9.5 9 8.5 8 12.5 12 11.5 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 8.5 8
1983 32.726 30.611 36.303 30.104 25.582 26.530 35.105 36.526 31.776 33.302 31.019 34.086 36.300 28.279
1984 58.194 36.609 29.329 30.603 41.201 37.268 36.034 32.905 26.977 36.223 43.383 42.463 31.571 29.428
1985 25.089 25.634 25.563 26.735 40.404 31.842 36.669 36.191 35.565 32.194 31.630 30.100 24.963 32.260
1986 39.188 34.268 29.666 24.178 25.731 27.499 33.361 36.747 30.184 31.609 31.821 29.746 28.637 29.382
1987 56.341 42.366 43.181 37.916 24.223 26.218 50.960 55.853 37.628 39.530 55.183 43.668 52.033 46.503
1988 31.328 27.869 28.561 27.644 34.222 36.306 38.093 33.062 31.575 31.492 33.126 30.925 31.334 28.867
1989 30.512 23.610 27.209 37.952 35.698 34.345 34.126 38.482 35.224 30.620 29.490 26.832 27.797 29.006
1990 65.862 55.286 39.885 29.748 21.330 26.062 33.267 37.658 33.654 43.305 58.214 49.758 33.727 28.788
1991 34.205 33.064 29.623 23.706 25.102 27.163 29.040 35.330 35.680 31.675 37.286 37.602 32.249 24.221
1992 51.597 42.052 27.149 21.283 32.230 29.993 28.335 37.048 36.358 33.026 50.903 46.805 23.179 23.577
1993 33.783 28.710 26.450 22.029 27.179 38.882 50.916 42.166 35.083 33.363 34.778 29.094 26.102 33.854
1994 34.103 32.288 33.283 25.413 24.498 31.757 36.816 34.057 31.560 35.447 31.091 31.461 26.935 26.613
1995 31.825 31.420 26.007 23.954 35.369 34.549 34.053 27.639 31.669 33.582 31.222 31.761 25.546 23.417
1996 39.634 34.015 37.849 45.256 23.127 23.687 25.537 26.896 30.740 34.022 38.812 37.347 38.548 37.485
1997 32.488 27.409 37.817 29.013 40.783 28.882 29.258 32.304 38.876 39.417 34.858 36.601 38.723 35.330
1998 45.736 38.828 30.855 22.644 78.966 65.821 42.509 31.305 35.089 33.227 34.649 43.368 33.381 29.818
1999 32.705 26.425 25.888 27.988 39.722 41.627 40.657 31.808 30.976 33.008 35.028 35.954 33.219 34.223
2000 61.846 61.305 56.216 41.012 29.460 30.550 30.395 36.016 42.858 40.572 54.104 66.430 59.269 48.255
2001 38.976 51.159 57.984 51.032 23.497 30.015 38.254 41.826 36.878 36.959 38.933 46.816 48.446 43.503
2002 27.267 29.366 29.111 24.537 31.865 28.107 25.293 30.227 26.432 25.600 26.737 28.436 27.737 25.099
2003 30.670 25.036 31.087 28.698 40.408 37.297 38.067 35.292 28.311 30.103 31.260 26.704 25.504 27.776
2004 34.270 28.072 24.450 28.171 33.236 34.046 32.706 25.678 30.692 31.739 33.793 32.349 32.925 31.519
2005 41.431 31.424 25.928 29.706 38.423 36.446 42.971 41.234 39.466 44.498 48.966 33.710 27.727 32.093
2006 38.623 35.397 32.201 31.225 28.945 29.516 31.656 37.297 36.227 27.879 38.249 35.890 29.457 29.686
2007 30.606 31.648 33.423 32.147 37.139 41.982 42.729 40.651 39.753 39.813 40.396 36.319 35.245 34.670
2008 29.767 29.598 30.838 28.768 42.502 45.198 44.357 31.724 33.807 32.875 40.491 39.387 29.792 29.059
2009 43.705 43.439 34.144 22.252 22.211 24.043 28.403 32.546 31.301 33.428 39.669 39.700 28.166 24.562
2010 41.552 27.486 27.885 26.178 33.754 31.696 28.848 59.602 59.344 47.269 41.850 39.979 29.106 26.594
2011 44.243 42.170 35.222 37.654 51.104 62.286 75.817 64.416 44.530 28.159 61.575 61.138 38.393 32.971
2012 38.253 36.196 35.245 33.672 29.166 31.293 37.918 41.627 37.299 29.581 38.667 38.387 32.761 26.190

AAiT - 145 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
….Con't
Grid No. 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
Longitude 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 38 38 38 38 38 38 38.5
Latitude 12.5 12 11.5 11 10.5 9.5 8 12 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 11.5
1983 29.170 32.038 34.726 36.713 33.469 30.365 40.356 42.027 34.562 37.238 33.895 25.187 44.559 49.639
1984 30.731 29.982 29.967 30.125 25.314 28.385 26.140 29.885 30.820 30.208 29.085 30.522 27.703 26.880
1985 38.284 35.855 34.239 36.033 37.324 38.237 31.840 35.604 31.563 35.758 36.961 32.292 27.041 36.100
1986 23.201 27.600 37.646 43.037 25.832 26.999 30.039 37.070 29.645 30.663 32.157 32.254 29.625 34.073
1987 21.131 28.960 39.285 56.604 39.017 33.552 45.049 31.989 31.130 42.153 30.600 30.026 39.164 31.231
1988 29.155 30.675 33.576 32.800 33.728 34.356 25.900 30.979 33.762 40.516 38.785 34.910 34.838 40.118
1989 28.064 28.566 28.854 35.995 35.533 27.901 28.973 27.666 29.036 33.963 32.996 31.370 30.244 33.097
1990 21.566 26.775 38.937 38.836 34.594 43.561 23.373 30.380 39.846 36.567 31.100 34.135 29.714 38.336
1991 33.341 30.776 32.525 36.350 37.929 39.471 27.983 56.553 34.552 42.529 49.641 47.192 36.811 46.329
1992 26.386 27.652 25.318 30.844 27.845 34.264 24.822 27.473 31.612 40.644 31.770 33.126 29.214 44.527
1993 30.054 31.121 38.988 30.601 32.625 57.884 34.152 25.146 26.808 30.147 51.435 55.527 34.026 72.598
1994 21.913 28.628 29.119 28.456 31.869 38.114 20.192 22.613 24.292 24.521 38.906 31.881 34.881 38.067
1995 33.623 33.326 27.313 28.578 32.173 32.266 20.617 37.902 27.778 33.929 35.916 27.620 26.877 34.158
1996 24.962 25.157 23.746 30.717 25.323 38.059 31.001 26.056 26.925 27.515 36.106 37.403 32.047 45.243
1997 63.904 36.233 22.058 29.996 38.134 36.932 27.828 55.528 27.847 38.663 42.265 34.248 29.168 77.909
1998 77.448 62.552 39.567 28.732 33.263 29.616 30.161 60.488 28.957 34.263 29.079 26.240 30.021 38.121
1999 25.978 33.625 32.429 28.369 30.959 34.020 20.022 25.224 27.481 30.439 32.907 31.372 24.740 29.898
2000 30.106 27.820 29.779 34.561 39.671 44.269 43.825 28.184 32.177 33.345 28.436 34.646 40.957 41.122
2001 40.471 30.085 43.242 42.296 39.272 35.694 32.857 28.287 50.486 36.914 28.118 29.115 30.026 45.666
2002 62.258 32.376 23.858 26.428 26.916 27.120 21.191 84.130 39.916 30.656 28.540 24.749 23.132 77.057
2003 36.642 33.337 38.068 36.702 28.070 27.288 26.004 29.627 29.359 38.101 31.136 25.197 32.413 33.570
2004 28.242 31.042 33.800 25.880 25.421 48.706 26.665 35.834 35.434 48.329 56.237 52.078 44.407 55.718
2005 42.953 41.944 39.739 38.656 34.534 38.244 35.362 41.468 36.716 52.732 41.217 28.647 27.792 42.189
2006 34.163 34.940 37.201 37.485 33.864 41.748 29.982 43.598 41.544 40.450 33.017 30.468 26.169 57.414
2007 36.997 41.646 41.697 36.028 38.250 50.274 31.728 35.095 32.125 34.436 46.734 52.573 41.961 35.496
2008 34.856 37.981 39.435 31.630 26.874 31.485 28.442 27.194 27.434 26.658 25.141 26.729 25.935 33.188
2009 28.649 27.940 24.693 27.151 27.003 32.401 30.985 31.736 28.461 28.725 28.400 28.283 25.197 35.237
2010 43.334 42.461 37.964 56.898 30.500 34.578 25.169 51.891 46.642 55.007 32.721 25.237 32.597 52.378
2011 31.643 42.043 44.321 49.758 32.825 53.593 27.418 31.489 46.999 36.019 33.128 34.739 29.380 47.218
2012 37.936 37.668 36.463 37.742 34.597 27.696 28.612 36.315 33.104 37.501 37.464 24.471 25.872 62.549

AAiT - 146 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
….Con't
Grid No. 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57
Longitude 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 39 39 39 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 40 40
Latitude 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 12 11.5 10 11.5 11 10.5 9.5 9 11 9
1983 32.398 37.993 35.246 26.379 61.615 39.144 29.939 24.490 27.950 37.166 45.799 28.418 36.337 19.814 23.912
1984 30.829 28.646 24.442 33.232 30.904 22.272 23.547 22.798 22.923 25.459 33.105 23.446 27.808 33.919 26.824
1985 28.960 32.719 32.250 31.143 29.992 32.945 33.169 25.516 26.829 51.270 45.556 27.604 31.415 27.497 25.640
1986 32.580 29.743 29.977 36.169 34.277 33.359 32.957 25.182 34.502 32.974 33.780 27.310 34.907 30.686 22.660
1987 22.556 26.635 27.580 31.653 32.468 22.718 26.021 27.104 25.225 28.242 28.222 23.663 40.300 22.118 36.832
1988 35.876 40.704 40.617 34.383 33.461 40.063 39.969 33.660 45.556 38.553 31.431 28.135 26.324 32.821 24.975
1989 25.054 32.354 34.447 34.431 41.160 21.640 21.772 29.509 24.530 35.732 49.683 34.297 54.835 25.869 28.140
1990 36.188 34.237 28.967 33.166 28.880 25.056 31.711 25.082 25.464 27.311 29.794 20.773 28.707 33.543 33.591
1991 32.462 41.199 39.290 34.725 36.784 30.925 49.055 27.738 31.142 38.350 66.729 32.028 31.296 22.927 28.447
1992 47.911 70.799 48.787 39.153 37.895 31.323 42.319 31.781 39.892 58.769 61.800 30.235 30.443 30.834 35.436
1993 44.612 63.523 38.338 51.248 36.251 77.623 90.724 28.497 109.280 119.947 121.159 23.208 39.282 121.805 61.212
1994 26.834 31.166 32.841 36.102 35.616 28.222 45.927 27.584 53.605 64.226 59.609 33.724 36.293 34.917 32.923
1995 32.248 35.764 46.601 41.565 54.914 35.456 32.945 24.976 33.683 34.276 32.918 25.320 30.528 30.250 30.269
1996 29.375 41.071 35.848 34.526 34.640 37.861 46.988 30.013 45.743 40.104 41.586 23.969 30.252 31.840 30.358
1997 56.533 48.817 37.280 33.843 29.785 35.533 42.047 27.075 40.505 53.175 47.909 26.189 27.465 24.930 20.731
1998 32.938 33.000 29.617 31.065 37.268 45.528 33.907 29.433 36.172 36.100 31.690 26.863 29.826 31.415 26.444
1999 29.166 32.032 32.254 30.136 31.926 27.903 29.069 26.239 31.422 32.618 27.745 21.050 21.058 28.058 16.684
2000 33.918 39.307 29.710 29.892 35.860 35.513 31.074 28.295 32.955 26.236 52.267 24.292 44.343 29.147 58.344
2001 57.579 62.241 28.535 28.320 32.010 25.160 32.995 23.472 61.490 31.921 54.640 21.934 25.959 37.201 26.042
2002 51.833 61.174 41.233 34.140 30.297 107.333 137.037 32.382 161.961 149.615 65.998 28.177 22.949 176.076 19.078
2003 28.077 45.645 43.395 39.592 55.463 25.497 33.934 28.773 35.750 44.785 41.398 30.923 29.574 37.207 20.083
2004 36.213 43.840 44.591 37.337 35.631 38.011 41.564 24.565 43.592 46.975 42.923 24.183 29.467 38.317 23.795
2005 35.776 51.046 44.354 36.371 37.318 31.438 40.644 34.534 51.789 42.788 45.648 25.426 29.264 35.096 17.879
2006 39.575 41.245 36.372 32.999 30.425 40.503 45.753 30.202 37.194 40.142 32.012 24.646 25.166 31.582 23.960
2007 29.365 30.774 41.798 53.870 44.826 32.099 31.613 33.714 30.604 29.133 26.544 35.776 33.762 24.706 21.810
2008 26.456 32.312 30.846 30.365 31.598 31.592 30.686 27.032 31.144 28.900 31.778 24.962 22.669 31.215 17.404
2009 28.258 27.930 32.608 30.115 32.951 29.938 24.838 27.513 24.858 33.114 42.812 22.243 22.749 32.356 25.806
2010 38.072 32.904 29.655 30.677 27.213 36.710 41.783 20.782 32.563 30.993 28.648 26.752 35.270 20.939 18.878
2011 35.723 40.892 33.808 30.311 30.098 27.810 31.770 25.018 26.534 27.899 33.203 23.153 26.661 25.913 23.482
2012 34.649 43.840 35.826 24.019 43.526 26.041 32.074 27.437 29.171 29.508 43.177 34.775 44.981 23.702 47.482

AAiT - 147 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
ECMWF- with bias corrected 2-day for 0.5 by 0.5 grid Size, year 1983-2012
Grid No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Longitude 34.5 34.5 35 35.5 35.5 35.5 36 36 36 36 36 36.5 36.5 36.5
Latitude 10 9.5 10 9.5 9 8 10.5 9.5 9 8.5 8 11.5 11 10
1983 61.562 48.099 62.092 65.34 45.649 34.237 42.709 47.656 44.851 48.439 44.52 43.3 39.128 47.886
1984 46.756 36.718 42.143 54.559 34.466 30.814 37.41 63.114 55.959 35.27 38.111 47.523 35.773 51.818
1985 29.446 23.623 37.9 31.43 32.249 35.791 59.908 37.692 34.363 33.285 36.675 35.825 37.85 45.146
1986 51.757 53.485 48.694 53.591 49.252 36.747 38.766 49.859 48.02 41.304 39.827 46.525 39.418 44.16
1987 45.128 48.531 49.401 56.45 55.853 61.386 39.435 55.61 58.6 59.644 59.172 39.381 35.506 49.553
1988 35.685 46.58 43.142 43.67 39.724 39.977 46.992 42.68 39.003 37.669 42.414 45.78 44.43 46.433
1989 43.726 45.505 54.899 50.967 43.885 64.776 55.804 45.412 42.68 49.078 55.621 55.549 48.343 51.536
1990 48.386 52.887 60.219 81.252 71.316 55.493 47.284 83.466 81.57 67.079 56.942 41.987 48.132 63.857
1991 38.693 43.987 42.14 56.339 57.408 52.341 45.706 50.726 56.437 54.559 49.375 49.376 44.885 43.762
1992 32.714 37.523 37.419 51.42 41.506 34.368 45.234 63.232 57.037 44.161 33.948 38.662 38.551 58.621
1993 44.59 39.287 39.918 40.296 33.072 33.072 44.375 45.728 42.996 34.17 35.345 65.766 53.854 46.056
1994 32.137 28.18 38.469 43.266 34.577 46.289 43.134 40.453 48.665 39.541 44.399 50.755 41.537 37.25
1995 36.481 36.754 37.843 43.013 44.952 40.526 43.522 44.746 50.931 46.991 40.895 43.479 39.529 43.594
1996 48.281 50.691 55.123 54.118 52.58 59.427 52.649 53.463 52.766 49.172 57.619 43.57 44.576 48.402
1997 47.922 40.735 67.322 58.575 42.853 37.128 42.615 35.76 40.915 43.978 40.1 39.504 42.037 39.867
1998 49.626 38.164 49.784 48.605 49.77 38.656 52.305 55.314 53.629 48.977 41.376 50.063 46.895 48.722
1999 37.103 53.818 41.579 42.1 39.99 41.161 39.687 42.855 43.001 36.231 33.78 43.54 37.495 43.51
2000 51.937 52.855 49.098 63.178 60.813 53.505 54.073 70.989 72.124 67.443 56.267 54.396 52.919 52.727
2001 70.898 62.451 62.453 64.844 62.5 54.384 44.132 55.741 61.01 61.812 53.864 39.236 39.023 48.45
2002 33.251 35.448 38.147 33.444 31.903 38.871 41.014 38.27 37.109 29.808 33.595 42.028 42.613 45.189
2003 40.647 34.331 45.476 49.124 43.547 36.984 45.24 40.877 39.98 35.413 38.794 52.936 41.909 37.926
2004 32.955 27.507 34.093 48.31 40.234 24.868 40.976 40.103 39.351 32.267 28.413 38.215 39.327 45.78
2005 42.061 44.949 49.052 57.226 48.85 60.692 53.703 63.57 57.714 52.235 58.106 54.918 48.832 66.888
2006 50.838 49.449 53.061 43.121 47.942 44.137 44.87 51.241 51.509 47.179 41.33 39.678 45.138 42.749
2007 32.294 33.622 41.234 65.924 61.356 62.552 47.335 55.195 59.194 49.732 38.002 52.384 50.402 43.949
2008 45.102 58.321 44.176 43.11 46.629 43.459 46.929 39.717 44.461 41.683 38.893 57.032 43.748 43.001
2009 41.344 33.893 50.096 41.803 44.792 51.881 50.302 46.854 53.429 39.639 42.602 44.99 44.786 39.906
2010 48.724 49.139 54.135 49.755 42.896 64.979 86.79 53.999 45.163 51.287 53.18 49.293 71.688 65.546
2011 126.03 129.21 116.21 113.82 83.359 50.494 59.759 70.499 56.761 43.675 48.306 78.89 57.612 42.704
2012 36.536 38.291 40.281 65.772 76.596 62.097 54.893 57.705 79.565 74.008 68.241 61.36 59.371 52.793

AAiT - 148 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
….Con't
Grid No. 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Longitude 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
Latitude 9.5 9 8.5 8 12.5 12 11.5 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 8.5 8
1983 45.516 43.384 50.974 44.249 36.551 41.636 47.126 38.814 47.205 49.813 45.77 46.926 48.844 37.878
1984 61.4 42.644 39.646 38.994 42.405 44.251 48.212 37.005 38.025 37.886 47.1 55.618 41.837 38.502
1985 41.138 29.676 31.09 37.033 44.957 38.565 41.969 42.644 44.545 43.335 40.572 37.801 33.781 40.577
1986 45.93 41.23 41.142 41.981 32.346 40.706 43.962 47.223 39.288 45.742 49.386 50.103 43.453 40.323
1987 60.976 50.973 54.427 53.914 38.222 36.537 63.19 64.992 46.005 47.861 61.565 49.074 54.461 54.895
1988 43.536 36.76 35.138 39.501 42.39 44.081 45.742 49.472 50.59 47.196 46.145 41.549 40.485 37.95
1989 39.86 36.276 33.21 46.334 38.614 40.829 53.163 55.458 55.095 48.1 37.519 40.402 38.915 45.01
1990 79.042 68.992 54.987 44.076 31.325 33.322 43.603 53.646 48.329 55.469 71.158 62.662 47.356 42.809
1991 46.803 46.3 51.817 46.117 48.897 44.055 45.192 45.539 44.088 40.97 52.206 51.97 45.385 45.729
1992 67.318 58.73 48.032 36.503 44.619 40.655 38.96 45.137 45.971 49.726 61.688 56.524 42.937 39.583
1993 48.334 42.381 37.251 34.718 42.604 55.403 68.219 61.257 50.218 43.971 51.717 47.588 36.908 45.065
1994 44.159 43.471 40.091 38.932 32.175 43.515 56.024 50.741 42.55 45.038 45.524 51.408 38.769 33.703
1995 44.31 48.026 47.154 41.561 50.987 44.444 40.485 39.576 41.354 36.838 40.853 47.281 45.481 41.153
1996 50.417 54.404 54.521 50.859 35.745 38.836 36.175 46.074 51.32 52.202 63.406 71.872 65.923 56.622
1997 38.03 41.305 56.402 45.684 44.172 41.5 38.92 44.925 48.92 43.724 41.252 58.471 66.155 52.145
1998 59.248 56.16 51.602 41.865 93.6 80.124 54.592 44.759 50.101 47.174 58.796 56.741 50.181 44.921
1999 44.853 42.837 42.812 46.233 55.388 48.872 46.351 40.469 45.614 47.605 49.41 57.16 53.852 55.461
2000 71.469 72.99 70.625 59.083 42.782 48.138 52.87 52.185 49.762 44.917 60.955 79.549 74.572 65.792
2001 52.719 54.099 60.119 54.101 36.433 40.333 44.369 45.598 40.946 47.203 57.114 54.195 51.285 47.194
2002 40.021 36.646 31.745 33.784 42.842 39.928 37.473 52.292 50.425 43.226 35.054 35.658 32.565 37.208
2003 37.01 36.302 36.966 38.512 49.159 48.726 53.049 45.501 38.825 39.613 43.892 45.378 35.188 34.571
2004 44.968 38.208 33.792 32.177 41.692 43.36 44.171 39.907 45.966 47.183 48.997 46.626 36.633 35.79
2005 68.057 54.285 49.051 55.595 52.083 49.214 56.474 52.352 59.326 66.865 72.333 54.55 46.624 50.2
2006 54.877 51.162 48.559 44.286 37.353 35.362 37.658 46.605 42.959 40.417 55.165 52.849 45.872 42.74
2007 42.422 44.375 48.186 37.697 48.602 52.942 53.65 51.618 48.381 48.51 51.054 43.803 39.289 37.752
2008 38.444 36.711 38.169 38.245 57.93 56.952 50.458 45.984 40.517 38.992 42.729 40.891 38.398 38.449
2009 51.448 44.98 37.596 37.297 41.387 44.791 44.909 43.326 45.094 44.358 50.28 42.559 36.678 36.151
2010 50.155 42.031 46.238 42.801 38.726 35.927 33.609 62.334 63.546 52.659 48.545 50.553 41.719 41.566
2011 48.558 48.474 40.077 43.892 53.488 64.41 78.535 66.217 45.759 38.696 70.036 71.957 49.121 42.13
2012 45.714 48.109 59.887 59.423 49.423 57.838 63.526 64.063 61.116 52.744 48.636 48.522 40.877 38.064

AAiT - 149 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
….Con't
Grid No. 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
Longitude 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 38 38 38 38 38 38 38.5
Latitude 12.5 12 11.5 11 10.5 9.5 8 12 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 11.5
1983 39.156 45.631 51.666 44.081 40.278 40.59 49.387 54.503 43.921 42.456 40.996 32.649 55.298 63.965
1984 45.219 43.281 42.038 42.246 38.054 48.447 35.491 43.373 44.76 40.955 49.133 46.162 41.43 42.697
1985 41.415 41.867 42.094 46.881 49.547 51.127 42.238 39.876 45.539 50.924 53.029 45.414 37.19 46.631
1986 33.899 37.441 49.111 53.888 43.234 50.892 35.673 54.909 43.988 46.714 48.883 46.16 40.434 55.565
1987 37.251 40.493 50.608 69.117 46.64 39.736 55.256 50.842 42.253 54.813 35.817 39.202 47.366 55.59
1988 43.324 46.552 47.805 53.773 52.79 50.945 34.554 49.934 56.471 56.413 52.087 51.405 49.772 61.23
1989 37.41 38.968 50.176 57.4 54.694 41.645 51.129 41.376 53.245 56.511 53.454 39.478 41.471 41.275
1990 32.788 35.626 48.527 50.902 46.296 54.414 36.707 37.672 47.917 47.888 41.142 40.424 35.147 47.666
1991 45.637 44.027 49.672 53.231 47.852 64.499 37.915 59.779 56.396 78.503 69.349 76.279 70.708 74.856
1992 43.776 45.06 47.033 47.491 44.177 46.34 39.46 52.907 47.695 50.783 42.637 45.822 41.379 61.439
1993 45.859 47.157 58.632 51.459 46.329 65.878 44.99 39.763 42.546 53.605 62.842 66.524 41.374 84.273
1994 30.151 42.226 49.61 49.12 44.23 50.347 31.925 37.001 47.465 44.749 52.681 44.239 41.175 47.61
1995 45.975 46.755 38.438 40.673 43.048 40.864 33.672 50.536 43.248 46.44 39.722 37.655 38.375 52.282
1996 34.562 38.527 37.365 45.431 44.017 60.756 52.699 37.601 39.521 44.595 51.064 51.95 60.758 68.153
1997 68.479 42.691 30.299 42.021 47.432 42.385 41.022 71.054 38.118 44.704 48.887 41.539 37.2 83.139
1998 93.228 77.12 52.701 49.066 57.798 48.637 45.119 77.825 46.322 65.701 49.572 42.548 44.179 57.897
1999 43.978 41.348 39.09 42.155 45.531 52.328 35.759 47.279 45.568 50.476 49.917 51.221 45.262 44.958
2000 43.339 50.93 51.353 50.035 48.204 49.066 62.316 49.085 47.169 54.933 40.106 39.176 50.991 56.382
2001 70.628 42.254 50.97 48.649 43.617 53.105 41.421 49.621 53.878 41.955 40.653 44.931 45.979 48.097
2002 64.852 44.536 42.343 42.235 43.851 33.291 36.943 102.61 42.242 37.267 33.788 31.762 31.634 118.76
2003 50.765 44.45 51.506 50.16 37.961 42.904 30.992 43.361 42.937 46.315 39.281 41.902 37.137 59.809
2004 38.229 41.681 49.347 44.862 49.196 69.623 35.788 58.21 62.513 78.849 76.696 69.043 61.084 70.889
2005 57.932 56.247 51.777 51.489 53.841 60.869 48.827 58.502 49.146 64.632 51.577 47.203 48.927 51.258
2006 42.864 37.738 48.493 51.018 47.377 55.807 38.092 43.598 52.304 50.097 44.496 42.272 38.525 66.584
2007 52.877 55.856 53.061 52.19 47.696 62.259 37.133 59.412 49.085 53.299 58.869 65.708 55.459 57.954
2008 48.068 50.383 48.851 44.885 38.742 45.373 36.136 48.058 42.974 43.017 40.427 37.967 39.568 51.842
2009 38.807 43.666 42.124 41.546 43.285 49.148 50.262 42.638 39.62 43.191 42.255 45.099 37.19 47.25
2010 52.579 51.823 47.441 56.898 40.747 35.37 47.384 67.456 47.675 55.007 39.018 33.11 32.597 72.401
2011 40.117 45.626 45.984 52.216 51.386 63.637 47.234 45.148 46.999 53.748 41.316 42.198 46.969 64.973
2012 47.155 61.275 63.212 61.309 58.108 41.375 44.937 52.254 55.154 46.34 44.435 42.624 41.938 62.549

AAiT - 150 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
….Con't
Grid No. 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57
Longitude 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 39 39 39 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 40 40
Latitude 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 12 11.5 10 11.5 11 10.5 9.5 9 11 9
1983 46.4 44.001 39.849 41.596 68.117 59.311 47.694 34.314 41.386 40.105 50.333 42.73 38.87 29.633 34.617
1984 42.827 37.299 43.411 48.793 39.683 38.838 37.914 33.316 34.726 39.815 45.075 41.867 47.847 38.568 44.502
1985 46.933 48.857 42.991 44.055 40.935 37.568 41.531 35.621 40.162 63.575 54.582 34.139 39.816 42.655 38.95
1986 52.746 44.387 42.028 53.511 53.123 54.231 59.794 40.171 59.632 61.191 59.396 44.384 51.518 45.311 32.288
1987 41.684 49.457 38.794 45.45 41.632 40.017 48.186 35.166 45.222 52.296 51.218 41.5 64.553 35.897 61.269
1988 60.669 61.882 55.992 49.092 45.422 53.455 56.81 50.093 66.38 60.702 55.496 43.91 39.368 54.357 31.631
1989 42.765 49.585 43.272 40.242 49.654 33.173 32.323 35.214 33.682 41.564 54.898 39.621 62.365 34.775 38.695
1990 47.59 43.032 36.064 38.98 38.01 34.399 40.457 30.837 36.903 47.651 53.589 32.907 37.941 57.171 44.168
1991 46.493 62.384 66.789 53.822 51.892 38.272 59.425 53.19 45.567 66.777 83.602 60.885 58.724 28.989 53.107
1992 58.413 76.758 51.147 55.168 54.084 45.564 49.76 37.308 52.329 69.951 66.236 43.823 42.53 38.234 42.337
1993 52.64 75.71 64.449 68.178 49.865 90.624 101.69 52.364 120.51 130.17 141.7 41.379 53.67 133.89 100.22
1994 46.157 50.027 45.104 51.126 49.814 36.615 45.927 38.997 53.605 64.226 59.609 45.357 59.807 52.957 58.596
1995 49.567 46.793 42.988 41.565 54.914 48.819 48.888 32.524 47.869 48.172 50.849 36.226 35.873 48.089 40.565
1996 46.091 53.908 49.909 45.49 50.726 57.454 66.697 44.194 75.306 60.916 66.71 39.121 47.001 42.858 55.42
1997 57.568 56.957 47.339 49.575 43.139 47.745 57.115 37.726 45.591 58.805 54.163 41.142 40.008 39.85 35.109
1998 53.515 57.359 45.301 41.002 45.275 73.088 57.349 40.443 59.142 62.457 53.298 42.769 47.68 54.563 37.178
1999 43.65 47.092 48.153 51.201 51.697 48.119 44.005 44.299 43.189 43.452 44.093 38.285 36.441 43.227 27.542
2000 44.387 58.132 41.501 37.553 43.511 63.398 42.714 38.523 47.042 41.181 68.967 40.723 56.42 49.102 66.008
2001 57.579 62.241 42.097 40.19 45.21 44.705 47.073 35.623 61.49 54.53 54.64 37.486 40.36 49.177 30.374
2002 51.833 61.174 41.233 38.317 35.672 155.74 174.03 32.382 214.91 185.17 77.215 30.37 33.729 219.83 33.108
2003 46.609 63.899 48.845 40.384 57.696 44.039 58.82 52.237 69.004 86.384 82.726 41.953 35.794 58.083 27.647
2004 42.414 66.654 66.528 53.109 53.387 46.034 55.695 43.064 48.398 51.947 64.113 39.366 47.872 42.892 30.543
2005 49.042 52.874 46.527 48.758 47.895 45.687 54.111 41.859 59.524 62.749 56.751 45.938 40.179 58.411 26.983
2006 50.889 52.495 47.803 40.642 37.968 49.617 55.47 43.822 59.423 61.619 51.753 33.714 33.802 51.264 35.412
2007 47.272 54.006 60.988 69.957 61.823 61.043 53.627 51.049 41.225 41.555 43.407 56.715 52.872 36.699 36.481
2008 43.535 40.403 40.338 37.266 41.266 54.065 53.959 38.717 58.975 54.922 59.041 45.819 39.025 54.991 31.539
2009 44.481 42.938 41.207 41.602 48.751 42.761 40.676 36.608 44.858 55.509 52.743 39.199 38.163 58.933 30.653
2010 53.817 44.84 36.954 32.989 39.173 56.693 64.921 29.804 55.164 53.142 42.126 29.98 45.107 39.149 29.917
2011 43.916 52.269 41.041 41.236 45.366 43.056 41.621 37.872 43.611 49.428 45.896 38.965 48.857 51.333 42.592
2012 46.671 47.414 43.932 43.154 43.526 39.951 42.061 37.307 44.244 45.521 73.038 56.381 64.87 39.26 59.76

AAiT - 151 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
ECMWF- with bias corrected 3-day for 0.5 by 0.5 grid Size, year 1983-2012
Grid No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Longitude 34.5 34.5 35 35.5 35.5 35.5 36 36 36 36 36 36.5 36.5 36.5
Latitude 10 9.5 10 9.5 9 8 10.5 9.5 9 8.5 8 11.5 11 10
1983 63.840 51.181 66.157 72.771 53.293 40.762 52.257 63.474 61.268 55.466 47.816 52.449 49.389 56.186
1984 46.756 36.718 45.285 58.074 41.647 43.155 52.665 66.820 61.191 42.358 46.601 61.406 45.737 54.705
1985 32.034 26.743 41.061 36.689 36.258 41.809 63.006 41.550 39.053 38.800 43.145 54.155 51.287 48.739
1986 66.989 61.060 68.185 58.438 52.214 42.960 49.033 52.190 48.696 43.861 43.425 54.721 49.558 42.503
1987 55.179 60.792 54.343 61.355 53.544 51.272 48.528 52.443 51.344 50.408 50.693 43.376 40.628 59.034
1988 43.575 50.593 50.156 51.061 49.039 48.421 54.189 51.146 50.037 50.904 49.577 51.403 52.214 54.985
1989 48.897 53.424 59.064 56.205 51.989 70.436 65.832 56.024 49.496 52.520 60.227 65.871 67.810 56.261
1990 54.114 57.487 60.272 77.637 67.191 58.499 71.356 80.514 77.510 60.278 61.497 60.914 67.941 68.212
1991 38.693 43.987 43.725 65.184 61.624 54.047 60.353 65.601 67.920 61.572 52.902 81.282 62.270 59.572
1992 39.652 45.128 43.023 60.581 56.648 51.648 60.696 68.735 68.985 59.890 49.320 58.618 62.595 53.582
1993 44.976 49.262 40.292 47.587 42.396 43.569 49.494 50.617 47.277 45.172 49.189 69.535 58.384 49.586
1994 43.417 37.831 48.025 53.678 42.396 56.581 50.383 55.249 50.849 49.677 53.514 60.651 47.378 48.134
1995 45.712 44.221 58.881 50.966 52.609 49.337 50.810 51.549 58.604 54.237 48.309 45.402 42.122 56.914
1996 46.253 59.942 62.345 50.955 59.297 69.818 53.225 56.081 55.840 56.152 65.248 48.414 54.800 62.322
1997 52.267 45.387 75.870 75.935 55.393 45.677 49.300 54.883 56.825 49.324 45.145 38.658 43.836 51.954
1998 64.353 45.623 66.251 60.859 53.001 53.273 65.487 62.073 61.172 56.862 54.760 62.276 62.854 54.519
1999 43.669 39.730 47.890 46.968 46.146 49.033 50.733 46.804 48.363 42.483 41.689 47.633 43.700 45.947
2000 62.345 66.944 64.054 68.903 66.118 62.084 76.446 76.577 78.408 72.474 63.004 73.079 75.229 68.682
2001 71.708 62.451 62.714 64.948 82.349 59.991 54.069 62.664 67.171 64.513 61.598 60.995 60.142 58.037
2002 38.254 39.285 40.967 40.261 42.075 44.338 46.028 43.773 45.135 42.924 41.199 54.477 46.761 48.196
2003 43.042 37.103 50.399 53.672 47.946 51.295 52.337 47.373 49.227 50.416 52.288 61.587 50.671 47.114
2004 35.400 29.353 38.308 45.345 39.994 33.787 47.586 42.445 43.488 39.247 37.176 43.002 43.231 46.273
2005 50.456 51.018 57.413 55.142 58.182 70.680 62.872 55.063 54.747 62.121 69.832 62.918 63.504 60.565
2006 45.603 48.401 56.247 54.722 56.393 53.287 54.707 67.519 69.663 68.322 61.575 54.384 55.016 57.040
2007 46.948 42.076 51.272 71.033 67.726 78.344 55.638 63.440 67.898 56.178 46.276 62.247 64.936 54.658
2008 55.566 67.236 60.854 62.681 50.909 46.843 67.895 53.016 55.112 49.741 39.459 62.898 63.563 54.256
2009 52.162 57.768 58.050 53.346 55.622 60.889 54.356 58.134 65.086 51.191 53.970 59.921 63.502 50.081
2010 60.841 71.228 64.700 69.467 66.735 80.726 111.530 73.135 61.887 62.863 69.331 66.609 91.664 89.649
2011 120.363 124.325 110.395 111.613 77.341 66.461 64.166 76.208 61.510 60.700 65.403 85.363 67.769 55.503
2012 46.225 46.203 50.567 73.481 81.750 67.977 63.847 64.532 85.085 78.459 73.729 69.413 69.793 58.618

AAiT - 152 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
….Con't
Grid No. 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Longitude 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
Latitude 9.5 9 8.5 8 12.5 12 11.5 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 8.5 8
1983 64.010 61.363 58.389 48.158 46.852 45.366 51.732 50.399 58.246 61.946 61.009 58.800 57.551 45.666
1984 65.839 47.666 44.073 45.299 58.215 56.440 68.057 52.010 45.727 42.096 52.910 53.985 48.679 44.982
1985 44.139 43.395 45.611 42.592 53.354 49.109 64.543 62.624 57.308 47.668 45.667 53.333 47.176 44.678
1986 46.412 47.626 50.223 50.028 46.663 52.987 53.783 52.220 48.735 43.573 54.085 54.121 49.573 51.537
1987 64.196 47.055 46.988 45.556 33.954 38.340 64.204 69.468 68.679 64.268 69.444 55.348 60.017 59.807
1988 51.904 48.050 48.455 49.601 46.380 47.711 53.573 59.542 61.472 57.226 60.681 55.959 49.234 48.723
1989 54.468 47.004 43.244 46.958 53.353 54.429 64.670 67.836 63.263 51.972 46.265 45.924 52.048 55.665
1990 79.281 67.340 52.574 52.462 37.974 52.305 62.349 70.434 66.351 64.450 75.163 64.326 54.044 52.102
1991 60.381 59.878 60.570 51.083 57.934 59.946 61.907 61.024 62.568 58.341 57.695 56.350 54.177 50.041
1992 73.427 66.817 53.674 53.707 50.896 45.545 61.840 66.618 61.819 54.705 75.018 79.479 55.092 57.222
1993 52.629 47.448 47.360 48.040 46.971 58.497 73.439 66.470 57.172 52.687 60.926 52.262 47.409 50.402
1994 52.568 50.326 49.115 46.358 46.820 53.744 57.955 51.352 51.301 55.366 53.071 52.984 46.425 49.745
1995 50.395 53.547 52.455 47.311 52.896 54.238 58.258 51.942 50.149 54.368 57.722 52.816 50.603 46.410
1996 60.297 63.201 63.522 59.217 42.929 46.625 55.316 58.072 63.260 67.244 73.577 78.956 71.765 62.653
1997 48.816 48.367 57.913 47.775 60.047 53.753 41.183 53.038 57.529 56.699 51.875 62.057 69.002 61.795
1998 64.698 60.589 58.591 59.715 108.611 93.599 64.673 61.833 58.119 52.634 63.956 60.771 63.755 69.920
1999 48.407 38.952 37.380 40.397 63.715 52.853 53.493 55.779 50.603 50.495 53.518 48.636 44.469 44.072
2000 83.090 79.647 74.605 64.746 52.728 55.360 65.118 72.353 71.710 65.597 79.169 90.001 80.545 70.658
2001 62.667 62.638 64.218 76.167 52.266 57.794 64.675 66.816 60.606 54.818 67.300 67.373 62.735 57.915
2002 46.669 44.933 40.901 47.474 64.984 60.009 53.093 61.690 56.602 47.796 48.100 46.753 44.935 50.891
2003 45.001 47.315 46.693 48.963 73.228 71.254 68.230 57.783 57.057 49.241 56.403 57.279 45.492 41.740
2004 46.105 42.250 42.596 41.888 49.581 49.944 50.743 45.770 46.160 47.183 50.165 51.037 47.063 45.352
2005 57.499 47.063 55.573 65.462 59.987 55.925 64.208 77.828 71.996 62.449 70.700 51.953 51.865 56.075
2006 73.069 73.555 73.230 69.404 50.659 55.110 62.755 54.510 49.904 52.615 75.685 80.326 74.097 72.425
2007 56.401 55.517 56.712 44.411 53.714 58.385 67.650 68.671 59.838 56.411 59.549 57.471 51.546 48.318
2008 49.590 44.012 48.123 45.209 64.798 69.529 69.916 62.976 55.514 48.305 51.351 49.242 47.346 47.355
2009 60.076 59.212 46.309 42.900 52.736 53.974 62.221 70.665 61.509 52.714 65.707 65.631 48.358 46.076
2010 68.850 59.337 53.294 55.789 59.296 52.201 51.088 87.831 88.164 73.880 57.470 59.997 54.638 54.542
2011 60.801 54.663 52.094 58.111 56.111 67.289 82.480 71.269 62.836 52.667 77.461 74.760 56.448 54.347
2012 59.312 52.520 63.226 64.075 66.281 69.317 74.157 79.115 72.911 59.792 62.242 54.699 47.331 48.590

AAiT - 153 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
….Con't
Grid No. 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
Longitude 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 38 38 38 38 38 38 38.5
Latitude 12.5 12 11.5 11 10.5 9.5 8 12 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 11.5
1983 45.389 47.353 55.159 58.580 52.662 55.901 48.591 56.385 56.566 48.741 49.600 50.921 66.259 67.241
1984 50.221 53.567 66.147 56.391 49.006 50.021 44.879 59.601 55.506 53.694 54.503 52.270 49.599 62.578
1985 56.443 56.107 67.134 68.429 64.510 57.206 44.697 55.822 69.279 76.013 69.018 56.178 54.131 59.547
1986 50.465 56.756 68.401 70.188 45.598 63.718 46.795 64.307 65.142 53.222 50.176 60.741 55.532 89.638
1987 45.419 46.274 51.651 73.947 68.535 52.287 60.273 64.878 51.311 58.648 41.556 48.709 60.290 83.432
1988 54.122 52.729 56.218 62.283 63.923 62.892 43.749 59.015 66.532 66.789 62.814 63.612 59.805 69.864
1989 54.148 54.982 63.396 61.880 58.073 53.421 62.551 55.891 57.261 65.011 75.191 54.950 60.567 47.173
1990 43.766 57.395 70.555 69.844 63.288 63.941 45.985 60.025 69.605 63.955 56.221 55.816 48.680 66.122
1991 49.810 55.870 64.094 62.786 62.213 81.290 45.847 62.793 63.748 91.936 86.217 91.325 82.009 74.856
1992 49.808 51.092 60.448 63.365 58.700 55.024 50.733 66.363 60.469 70.181 57.254 53.156 49.987 70.477
1993 47.113 49.415 61.580 60.761 51.358 78.200 50.163 49.091 61.324 70.821 76.889 79.663 58.283 84.273
1994 42.821 47.971 45.834 45.239 54.788 60.343 45.993 46.696 47.407 53.072 63.720 56.152 55.698 53.186
1995 46.848 49.409 54.411 60.447 57.433 60.935 44.500 59.504 60.802 56.576 50.673 48.283 53.421 69.056
1996 48.428 51.879 54.007 54.754 57.288 68.552 57.793 45.871 62.167 61.436 60.595 57.640 65.083 71.275
1997 86.013 63.947 38.858 47.660 57.523 62.841 55.825 84.695 45.895 64.010 69.204 63.681 56.080 83.139
1998 107.198 89.100 60.815 55.570 53.474 52.965 70.384 88.185 60.422 49.775 48.076 48.319 55.154 77.818
1999 65.556 60.284 56.896 59.205 54.332 56.590 37.559 63.764 54.890 55.719 54.771 56.162 51.677 63.477
2000 61.828 62.895 64.170 65.380 63.607 69.082 68.668 60.569 58.508 57.951 53.524 56.527 63.364 66.502
2001 71.668 63.946 67.336 64.221 61.057 62.085 55.624 70.294 70.618 59.773 50.888 52.247 59.554 80.041
2002 65.736 61.997 60.552 54.253 52.695 43.594 50.317 111.511 55.735 51.583 44.677 41.732 36.873 157.202
2003 67.520 65.563 60.467 64.387 60.976 50.688 41.921 59.404 59.552 61.394 50.032 48.719 44.380 60.352
2004 48.524 50.511 56.538 53.274 48.587 60.786 46.404 56.273 70.301 83.312 77.121 61.761 57.409 66.114
2005 60.696 54.499 59.215 73.012 71.185 61.975 58.850 57.956 61.151 83.445 63.554 51.347 45.874 63.178
2006 52.859 55.007 61.608 66.718 56.444 68.850 68.075 56.753 72.122 64.238 55.205 60.520 64.452 78.434
2007 59.419 60.873 62.045 64.053 64.631 73.614 46.756 68.088 61.503 74.659 80.380 78.575 70.496 67.536
2008 59.575 64.306 69.830 64.006 57.366 55.038 50.867 54.767 58.299 55.692 54.786 56.936 52.449 59.215
2009 58.475 56.777 55.418 60.290 59.592 58.784 63.477 63.099 57.857 61.323 55.895 55.129 51.406 70.048
2010 61.310 57.741 54.065 64.211 53.821 47.407 56.981 75.331 54.273 59.370 44.543 40.345 47.230 81.103
2011 52.670 60.003 58.783 62.973 68.476 68.633 58.656 60.270 59.489 68.376 55.644 46.148 50.732 73.354
2012 47.155 64.537 80.855 79.718 72.910 57.290 50.708 67.332 74.934 60.125 49.866 46.690 47.195 73.514

AAiT - 154 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
….Con't
Grid No. 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57
Longitude 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 39 39 39 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 40 40
Latitude 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 12 11.5 10 11.5 11 10.5 9.5 9 11 9
1983 62.551 60.327 53.476 58.610 93.905 69.552 55.581 48.947 44.783 50.092 56.557 54.807 46.964 36.317 43.648
1984 48.858 54.170 50.153 57.287 51.445 54.973 50.536 41.862 43.908 47.388 53.315 49.586 60.837 42.749 53.855
1985 69.387 75.153 66.507 52.455 52.462 45.767 59.546 51.959 61.038 65.988 63.246 44.754 50.652 64.735 48.013
1986 85.326 70.345 57.306 53.703 50.514 77.498 88.754 55.572 83.920 91.806 84.333 66.107 60.740 52.971 49.676
1987 62.778 57.823 44.329 60.509 61.767 45.412 45.787 44.680 59.343 70.071 73.688 54.311 73.579 53.686 74.166
1988 69.947 71.552 65.586 59.534 56.096 74.961 81.477 59.774 99.466 92.368 71.610 60.353 55.570 81.081 40.432
1989 49.814 70.903 65.050 57.791 60.038 37.597 46.890 58.171 48.563 60.312 86.870 56.295 67.496 52.971 57.726
1990 63.279 60.246 60.897 63.006 51.459 49.256 55.846 53.928 51.898 56.524 66.186 46.053 63.984 69.262 62.787
1991 57.378 62.384 79.545 74.678 55.596 43.457 82.557 66.522 47.521 69.804 101.258 72.758 72.892 35.978 68.374
1992 63.201 87.636 61.737 65.841 69.543 56.458 61.553 49.672 57.551 58.769 61.800 54.717 57.242 52.071 70.851
1993 71.117 90.740 81.184 84.520 66.899 90.624 101.685 66.365 122.574 131.161 141.698 56.982 70.484 133.888 137.893
1994 56.171 62.934 55.568 62.963 63.937 49.560 57.595 50.779 57.512 64.226 63.045 57.228 76.624 55.091 80.137
1995 71.321 64.893 47.904 54.384 60.059 62.080 65.561 45.271 58.050 71.112 71.226 49.267 49.196 56.122 48.251
1996 64.328 61.308 59.352 54.348 56.264 60.731 68.106 56.818 77.548 62.557 67.829 56.223 62.162 52.850 68.078
1997 57.568 61.636 68.133 67.693 61.106 72.794 88.186 63.821 65.976 76.679 65.711 67.331 67.473 51.622 55.840
1998 69.132 54.026 48.775 63.200 72.702 75.368 74.736 52.774 74.575 79.906 70.836 58.981 55.793 69.988 50.025
1999 61.189 55.382 53.800 58.300 59.766 54.742 59.394 52.798 56.161 62.183 58.657 55.465 48.015 52.637 41.021
2000 63.748 60.774 49.887 51.297 56.810 78.438 72.151 42.474 79.996 59.083 87.198 52.458 61.180 64.839 71.109
2001 59.971 62.241 50.926 45.528 56.949 52.110 50.091 47.236 61.490 51.264 54.640 44.656 45.342 49.177 40.875
2002 66.894 61.174 50.207 44.795 44.259 193.464 247.100 43.085 286.364 243.319 106.144 39.081 42.791 260.674 42.282
2003 58.980 60.607 53.179 48.485 60.270 51.754 64.922 46.713 64.431 71.522 67.628 57.753 65.368 60.469 35.899
2004 66.520 71.982 64.808 60.323 60.312 46.834 57.361 50.897 49.199 53.868 56.939 47.329 57.128 46.161 44.808
2005 58.732 89.425 75.931 58.146 61.129 57.079 69.301 61.830 72.213 71.974 73.316 47.533 49.897 48.763 43.234
2006 65.417 64.917 59.844 57.578 60.568 58.226 75.970 56.008 73.475 73.299 63.617 47.944 45.885 62.103 41.439
2007 60.077 73.530 82.983 84.694 80.060 68.072 57.546 62.977 51.051 60.400 64.340 70.076 65.701 54.872 46.035
2008 55.236 58.348 54.989 59.000 52.150 60.809 62.676 55.128 68.756 71.411 70.715 57.823 54.695 67.875 46.877
2009 59.455 64.307 57.934 54.651 57.231 57.128 56.872 47.267 52.801 62.763 61.981 52.412 56.859 66.692 39.955
2010 60.705 46.087 47.170 44.514 48.691 63.522 72.636 38.205 63.286 61.587 55.887 36.779 50.373 51.360 38.815
2011 55.688 60.868 51.858 48.819 64.579 46.686 54.541 45.605 50.109 54.591 55.959 59.553 56.547 60.775 53.210
2012 63.866 57.943 53.634 49.901 48.723 54.998 64.928 51.342 62.073 62.364 69.239 66.768 79.733 53.920 68.980

AAiT - 155 - BY:ABENEZER E.

 Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Table B.5 Annual Maximum Rainfall of GLADS for 0.25 by 0.25 grid Size (mm)

GLADS 1-day for 0.5 by 0.5 grid Size, year 1983-2012

Grid No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Longitude 34.6 34.6 34.6 35.1 35.4 35.4 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.9 35.9 36.1 36.1 36.1 36.1 36.1
Latitude 10.1 9.9 9.6 9.9 9.6 8.1 9.4 9.1 8.1 9.1 8.9 10.6 9.4 9.1 8.4 7.9
1983 143.221 131.401 119.588 115.875 91.984 123.146 93.938 76.178 125.532 68.482 87.765 69.558 65.985 60.787 78.934 53.538
1984 62.994 55.320 77.442 47.597 78.966 63.569 91.964 87.582 66.161 80.081 84.270 58.709 73.755 72.586 81.743 53.052
1985 41.772 37.759 42.366 43.681 42.170 39.901 48.151 47.304 39.201 49.762 48.239 58.184 64.342 67.770 94.000 57.419
1986 79.137 50.620 44.916 62.679 52.707 57.432 56.376 55.278 53.028 45.412 52.422 93.256 54.793 53.131 71.214 53.600
1987 67.430 68.455 95.833 61.030 104.315 74.145 139.391 134.778 81.010 146.830 143.001 76.293 161.942 158.890 138.987 89.893
1988 91.318 85.504 96.072 77.190 81.402 89.799 74.553 74.979 86.061 77.083 71.508 57.664 115.685 107.367 78.448 46.915
1989 69.372 66.433 93.007 77.073 115.357 61.739 104.192 74.423 66.922 63.934 69.164 103.773 75.630 76.163 69.569 51.618
1990 69.213 89.036 122.228 92.526 128.597 94.323 118.578 124.669 94.918 104.354 111.171 87.013 77.696 84.046 91.948 67.917
1991 67.641 59.736 71.047 80.073 132.626 66.730 128.051 98.366 64.905 70.263 49.060 72.776 64.681 56.764 87.664 59.579
1992 82.368 80.350 101.155 91.989 114.091 109.739 122.329 125.006 106.972 118.416 120.722 61.556 109.888 111.825 105.618 94.508
1993 96.660 79.177 98.614 85.805 93.182 63.912 82.322 80.572 66.164 76.350 74.926 59.875 87.488 84.956 76.787 52.707
1994 60.464 83.773 117.288 64.891 127.189 66.478 145.580 129.900 77.332 106.164 109.274 85.186 95.861 98.344 110.652 54.918
1995 60.672 67.612 94.653 41.218 67.236 79.289 67.236 63.455 72.528 49.304 51.947 56.434 83.382 80.479 64.066 42.217
1996 82.437 86.359 90.282 55.029 78.426 72.226 73.054 71.333 64.907 71.290 73.874 47.929 69.135 71.248 71.397 63.102
1997 127.844 133.462 139.087 132.723 129.451 69.511 132.976 118.053 74.572 108.812 106.784 97.481 115.642 106.421 77.131 73.673
1998 60.760 84.388 115.708 83.849 114.632 100.214 121.980 127.319 92.096 123.055 126.878 62.225 116.491 118.791 112.791 75.798
1999 49.896 44.221 53.823 64.326 81.077 53.983 87.233 79.262 50.427 80.230 71.332 86.573 91.029 81.198 55.930 61.798
2000 55.378 40.541 55.093 42.363 75.155 56.927 84.026 75.727 60.342 62.216 57.317 63.413 54.460 50.781 67.465 65.325
2001 105.267 100.291 140.409 146.623 237.706 104.069 230.422 183.423 97.589 131.013 97.446 117.046 98.749 78.609 103.512 70.888
2002 65.368 65.975 69.727 54.755 74.205 42.794 70.515 68.468 40.033 51.859 50.039 101.638 50.709 38.061 43.965 37.123
2003 65.863 60.667 73.542 68.396 108.157 80.177 127.591 124.021 78.837 112.720 108.009 87.737 107.263 101.412 77.817 42.962
2004 68.881 47.265 66.174 53.599 55.787 41.608 60.125 47.843 44.794 53.732 50.916 57.484 67.217 61.929 56.770 48.490
2005 65.742 51.143 69.561 100.016 162.637 80.352 172.260 160.474 82.283 121.811 113.336 117.796 96.280 83.148 61.527 59.586
2006 53.061 57.051 61.036 68.426 79.596 53.502 74.798 57.694 52.703 62.448 61.106 87.607 92.340 97.096 97.466 51.451
2007 54.665 66.555 78.451 45.347 60.002 53.091 67.366 72.109 54.419 70.081 73.392 40.344 66.161 68.046 66.906 43.481
2008 50.449 47.966 45.484 36.718 51.703 55.400 51.231 45.090 55.547 42.868 39.052 37.060 48.756 40.648 47.221 52.961
2009 46.437 56.331 78.862 44.602 87.415 48.892 102.266 85.764 48.304 79.024 62.912 33.752 88.010 72.285 53.952 44.271
2010 30.855 30.245 40.754 48.081 89.212 34.173 87.785 62.700 40.449 44.783 42.831 68.191 60.192 50.639 47.991 51.608

AAiT - 156 - BY:ABENEZER E.

 Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

….Con't
Grid No. 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
Longitude 36.1 36.4 36.4 36.4 36.4 36.4 36.4 36.4 36.4 36.6 36.6 36.6 36.6 36.6 36.6 36.9
Latitude 7.6 12.9 11.4 10.9 9.4 9.1 8.9 8.6 8.4 9.9 9.1 8.9 8.6 8.1 7.9 11.4
1983 63.780 68.166 76.931 72.697 80.449 57.465 78.408 108.562 109.692 84.226 73.995 79.412 109.660 81.912 73.652 96.286
1984 66.005 73.968 81.460 68.040 66.506 66.916 77.131 89.168 87.059 57.325 81.635 80.435 96.280 71.493 57.458 71.900
1985 58.048 40.965 111.074 69.569 84.599 90.541 96.487 126.354 130.693 67.643 96.643 106.378 143.023 113.946 82.350 117.074
1986 65.815 114.657 149.537 85.963 71.178 60.848 69.258 96.965 98.126 62.689 59.477 85.685 111.901 80.801 74.003 151.681
1987 76.894 47.213 65.817 79.516 173.217 170.942 168.674 166.400 153.896 126.728 166.050 163.920 161.797 130.005 109.517 52.051
1988 50.855 67.133 74.518 56.676 148.713 137.651 126.586 115.524 103.810 107.620 148.851 133.296 117.736 82.040 59.682 49.971
1989 53.071 51.315 110.646 123.993 92.562 88.397 84.230 80.065 75.471 85.628 97.796 91.187 84.583 56.066 63.979 112.746
1990 58.609 98.737 96.271 87.013 108.777 83.773 79.055 95.832 93.564 145.392 95.495 73.640 89.143 61.052 54.118 79.437
1991 60.078 76.074 176.678 91.332 85.409 76.641 98.238 121.117 117.595 75.434 89.886 113.653 137.419 93.318 58.724 128.487
1992 105.421 81.204 71.898 70.373 103.667 105.242 106.810 108.384 96.695 94.835 89.204 90.415 91.627 75.764 104.930 64.975
1993 56.564 79.402 125.845 92.463 122.484 118.937 115.383 111.830 101.590 93.496 134.880 130.771 126.656 95.997 76.929 110.393
1994 53.644 58.520 77.847 85.186 85.226 96.816 108.409 119.999 114.294 118.830 88.141 99.066 114.751 81.460 63.122 63.575
1995 59.104 75.051 111.475 66.200 116.395 111.650 106.905 102.162 87.315 78.846 115.502 109.866 104.232 63.385 48.594 122.615
1996 71.487 44.403 77.082 66.966 96.785 71.205 76.899 82.593 74.760 89.261 79.471 75.178 77.365 78.084 91.297 64.588
1997 101.021 97.236 100.108 89.200 117.145 109.745 102.352 94.951 79.847 93.320 100.044 93.343 86.644 67.303 70.686 70.470
1998 82.906 154.997 131.653 79.123 113.743 114.528 115.305 116.089 107.263 61.443 100.336 101.691 103.038 86.067 99.079 134.579
1999 66.874 104.477 174.526 122.848 92.924 82.164 71.398 60.638 56.813 92.404 82.701 70.376 58.053 68.213 83.694 152.410
2000 91.459 113.992 125.232 100.926 59.756 63.490 76.666 89.842 87.331 50.938 67.536 82.846 98.159 77.946 88.527 192.093
2001 89.909 55.458 76.788 117.046 123.852 101.152 94.097 130.594 136.376 132.039 111.495 104.257 128.323 108.888 88.153 76.094
2002 50.745 76.676 135.262 101.638 70.994 53.284 53.678 62.862 59.518 112.882 56.575 52.968 62.202 51.062 59.130 107.877
2003 57.659 139.281 75.433 83.131 97.096 90.111 83.119 79.224 70.924 84.117 94.170 89.824 85.480 52.302 72.384 66.369
2004 59.481 78.395 134.071 90.033 77.838 71.177 72.883 74.592 74.541 80.728 79.689 76.391 74.377 53.130 65.071 130.954
2005 68.164 80.078 147.517 106.216 120.159 95.450 70.742 68.746 65.336 84.318 99.323 75.604 71.559 69.990 77.566 156.298
2006 64.282 94.440 100.229 79.067 129.282 135.931 142.586 149.234 136.456 97.093 156.848 163.400 169.951 118.761 82.450 62.234
2007 48.540 47.526 54.853 42.751 65.565 66.018 66.478 66.938 63.303 50.226 59.956 59.868 59.778 52.080 46.976 46.063
2008 60.491 61.768 43.754 37.038 52.195 40.637 46.097 54.323 54.496 44.193 41.944 43.143 53.678 46.826 45.453 37.232
2009 47.021 60.794 60.974 39.126 80.881 65.547 53.866 74.866 74.894 46.423 54.604 54.566 76.391 54.566 48.477 55.156
2010 53.418 54.858 73.632 81.958 70.587 60.056 59.712 63.621 58.436 90.020 56.669 57.380 63.342 51.927 58.780 74.987

AAiT - 157 - BY:ABENEZER E.

 Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

….Con't
Grid No. 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Longitude 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.9 37.1 37.1 37.1 37.1 37.1 37.1 37.1 37.1
Latitude 10.9 10.6 9.1 8.6 8.4 8.1 7.9 7.6 12.6 12.4 11.4 10.6 9.9 9.6 9.1 7.9
1983 82.344 112.152 90.629 81.130 81.334 67.878 66.738 75.403 96.207 94.303 101.859 112.716 86.460 87.013 107.270 68.664
1984 60.320 55.080 97.525 91.854 92.564 67.739 52.780 73.891 94.433 94.433 78.209 57.678 81.427 108.341 113.414 53.078
1985 69.690 97.565 86.080 140.262 138.564 107.732 76.905 56.532 87.061 85.052 110.497 100.552 72.807 83.132 101.096 71.466
1986 97.012 114.495 83.453 114.067 107.649 79.509 68.747 92.502 92.229 112.024 138.869 128.738 68.070 88.206 107.422 70.158
1987 55.879 63.775 144.202 138.974 128.773 110.987 93.201 75.412 96.367 92.108 79.645 75.891 91.859 115.291 122.353 76.883
1988 48.070 56.386 140.972 97.367 85.695 67.431 52.021 72.835 92.161 83.577 83.284 63.439 109.480 153.271 133.096 52.741
1989 108.742 129.292 104.354 90.785 76.470 54.953 61.123 67.297 83.191 83.854 110.782 108.865 98.546 120.585 110.918 58.270
1990 90.474 126.665 94.998 63.675 60.674 43.609 40.699 48.778 90.908 95.254 78.608 118.299 141.776 144.407 94.495 36.042
1991 68.658 71.410 97.425 135.420 126.807 90.573 54.346 66.424 84.217 78.084 83.474 61.495 59.296 73.577 104.966 53.537
1992 86.751 107.486 63.718 65.448 57.646 61.910 81.516 109.456 82.464 85.591 71.034 113.481 96.215 85.568 61.670 60.096
1993 85.951 77.626 132.790 124.357 113.034 94.605 76.176 73.943 121.487 122.835 88.115 65.512 97.032 121.783 130.702 75.416
1994 104.833 146.772 82.798 89.327 85.938 70.645 75.557 80.916 68.850 70.015 61.988 153.751 139.320 124.759 94.265 87.992
1995 89.560 73.036 92.037 80.884 68.334 48.807 38.287 51.026 77.630 66.543 119.420 88.543 53.240 68.972 68.564 38.932
1996 58.884 65.375 80.384 60.282 59.415 68.487 77.559 86.631 54.123 57.147 48.918 85.783 91.535 117.229 81.298 63.822
1997 65.449 75.494 77.307 80.009 76.298 63.420 59.171 82.297 89.123 81.656 50.391 79.539 59.192 73.425 68.967 48.981
1998 83.283 60.076 76.231 84.240 79.749 79.177 89.614 118.681 144.017 152.401 131.795 64.939 69.495 88.422 90.583 83.430
1999 149.967 148.748 82.807 53.765 52.136 65.429 78.728 92.027 137.295 157.815 157.892 155.578 89.003 101.661 84.705 73.762
2000 105.294 89.243 62.911 94.854 93.956 76.183 81.112 92.638 120.337 123.320 229.703 81.097 58.710 65.864 58.291 75.984
2001 105.046 147.061 105.961 95.139 96.584 80.244 78.335 107.433 92.891 96.607 90.595 120.256 79.548 97.051 100.427 68.525
2002 121.636 170.288 49.449 48.263 50.803 49.721 58.989 77.787 61.246 61.914 76.739 175.550 121.623 90.020 50.749 58.849
2003 60.502 63.465 95.450 75.622 76.958 58.026 79.672 104.168 178.511 166.603 85.466 82.020 99.844 113.530 96.733 86.955
2004 90.603 70.425 78.888 71.647 61.104 51.147 62.888 84.240 127.617 133.397 116.109 65.558 80.579 88.614 89.430 60.707
2005 72.913 78.421 87.670 72.968 67.172 72.142 79.931 87.720 92.996 111.284 148.100 80.028 68.040 80.726 84.055 82.886
2006 54.728 67.418 159.849 168.752 153.324 118.017 82.710 85.257 89.098 81.752 81.205 73.833 105.250 141.296 162.842 82.968
2007 40.026 46.094 49.858 50.354 48.551 44.693 42.973 48.241 42.494 43.482 63.221 50.217 43.993 48.626 41.323 39.679
2008 31.650 41.312 42.767 45.190 46.820 46.834 50.641 54.443 58.950 53.996 35.526 43.715 40.265 45.516 43.590 55.831
2009 38.224 39.532 41.499 60.637 63.361 57.555 51.749 55.105 65.812 70.999 46.142 36.483 47.313 54.345 43.408 55.028
2010 78.530 88.188 52.566 51.218 47.271 45.005 57.186 80.060 95.651 84.629 68.869 74.832 74.073 79.652 57.037 56.856

AAiT - 158 - BY:ABENEZER E.

 Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

….Con't
Grid No. 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64
Longitude 37.1 37.4 37.4 37.4 37.4 37.4 37.4 37.4 37.4 37.6 37.6 37.6 37.6 37.6 37.9 37.9
Latitude 7.6 12.6 12.4 11.6 11.4 10.6 10.4 9.6 7.9 12.9 11.9 11.4 10.9 10.4 11.9 11.1
1983 81.654 99.726 98.755 109.444 107.432 113.288 120.911 82.776 96.126 64.435 74.229 96.442 70.984 106.388 53.018 55.922
1984 67.340 132.205 132.205 81.692 84.527 68.686 64.869 125.147 58.899 94.433 59.114 78.062 59.185 65.814 47.831 46.876
1985 57.485 106.708 105.044 111.105 127.195 128.517 112.642 90.390 66.025 75.817 84.933 136.650 139.676 124.224 75.317 124.669
1986 87.467 71.578 73.731 133.917 135.432 142.988 144.884 123.489 71.934 82.950 95.256 122.064 93.817 132.981 73.509 74.157
1987 69.616 110.178 104.430 94.316 107.233 103.888 90.417 112.940 64.339 88.834 71.504 114.903 118.390 105.877 62.578 109.972
1988 73.840 97.496 89.056 116.439 116.598 88.808 88.808 154.574 53.460 79.345 86.061 116.598 63.439 89.787 68.079 78.393
1989 62.703 86.274 86.680 111.890 108.825 94.073 93.606 142.514 55.417 62.551 79.747 96.400 79.512 94.161 69.803 90.911
1990 41.809 79.600 83.609 93.284 100.859 109.927 128.498 145.703 40.404 52.518 67.988 103.531 92.074 108.929 56.996 81.713
1991 67.489 77.652 71.701 80.285 85.785 71.455 63.971 86.243 67.489 60.893 66.614 95.969 80.193 61.414 75.894 88.413
1992 77.663 87.237 97.434 89.442 77.099 119.477 121.636 84.545 68.377 69.502 85.994 70.114 93.461 108.235 64.738 66.664
1993 70.118 121.796 122.485 60.104 65.843 61.147 72.168 120.074 74.663 84.776 64.450 52.209 53.880 70.196 72.999 77.563
1994 98.632 72.717 72.777 82.204 84.661 160.730 176.865 135.905 100.434 66.299 73.002 83.994 103.306 160.330 67.494 60.789
1995 40.649 82.095 74.422 103.473 116.225 104.043 89.262 65.843 40.348 79.849 62.947 100.297 98.645 89.705 68.441 72.705
1996 68.863 51.214 53.907 50.777 57.389 106.195 105.935 118.586 68.464 55.813 43.397 57.154 73.263 105.470 40.779 51.170
1997 67.677 114.734 104.530 63.685 69.169 93.966 87.694 81.998 40.501 115.195 53.973 72.243 79.361 87.735 46.857 53.484
1998 111.963 155.742 159.814 142.407 129.005 77.826 77.648 119.497 78.202 133.105 137.652 135.597 122.846 99.121 143.046 203.351
1999 84.871 165.663 187.741 178.199 163.380 162.402 142.077 110.614 68.794 112.402 168.027 145.359 145.178 126.911 121.369 103.764
2000 83.249 111.792 111.931 263.266 267.313 98.554 98.554 70.883 70.850 98.361 181.637 250.348 135.678 98.832 131.746 137.868
2001 92.197 97.213 101.175 108.181 107.250 93.450 94.639 90.137 58.774 65.647 75.632 101.133 75.541 71.176 89.392 104.869
2002 75.664 65.646 62.546 87.849 87.849 180.811 190.512 93.740 58.707 62.502 65.229 90.209 116.075 171.337 52.262 55.145
2003 112.112 184.764 174.252 91.210 104.561 106.476 98.872 122.705 94.242 150.588 91.686 102.860 107.109 101.429 69.066 83.672
2004 80.333 128.492 133.507 96.597 101.263 64.702 74.857 98.023 58.524 80.585 77.041 97.897 61.353 65.902 73.425 52.071
2005 90.396 116.791 133.315 156.092 139.903 82.335 76.717 111.093 85.847 92.804 133.555 118.830 79.011 72.861 99.576 121.383
2006 81.849 123.801 114.450 110.268 111.786 80.242 79.996 146.756 83.226 108.929 88.221 111.196 56.002 73.183 84.640 58.243
2007 45.024 44.361 45.094 83.447 84.851 54.335 54.495 53.584 37.719 45.391 71.177 90.406 55.548 54.983 73.426 61.412
2008 58.765 77.022 69.412 42.631 44.001 49.657 48.799 45.336 61.020 86.942 48.942 48.203 39.133 47.283 42.133 46.738
2009 50.946 66.085 71.448 56.050 47.904 40.541 36.973 74.448 58.301 70.878 56.112 45.720 38.546 35.779 43.597 30.203
2010 79.594 108.637 95.885 59.435 62.759 66.200 71.798 75.881 56.525 99.196 44.550 56.583 71.235 72.667 44.291 72.794

AAiT - 159 - BY:ABENEZER E.

 Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

….Con't
Grid No. 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80
Longitude 37.9 37.9 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.4 38.4 38.4 38.4 38.4 38.6 38.6 38.6
Latitude 9.6 8.9 10.9 10.6 10.4 10.1 9.4 9.1 11.9 11.6 10.9 9.9 8.9 10.9 10.6 9.9
1983 70.643 124.239 61.625 59.253 53.248 43.620 75.946 87.057 110.552 119.601 86.275 57.392 72.101 103.259 100.699 56.361
1984 85.158 100.272 46.752 45.626 44.220 49.205 66.226 72.714 39.379 54.302 56.414 73.722 62.805 53.924 57.134 70.969
1985 66.835 80.622 115.201 119.232 106.166 76.005 70.541 65.318 56.084 78.518 102.961 60.115 64.867 86.618 93.131 67.880
1986 90.046 82.147 80.717 80.158 74.622 57.160 77.008 71.804 117.967 161.860 111.109 70.568 92.030 116.653 92.094 79.860
1987 72.122 60.738 116.193 129.095 118.597 84.713 60.975 64.076 59.551 82.013 115.098 53.557 73.617 100.517 118.932 48.056
1988 101.742 52.413 104.885 113.804 106.969 84.386 59.510 45.478 87.266 122.174 135.784 81.801 50.304 143.429 160.798 92.340
1989 113.406 98.619 90.555 87.237 75.185 54.393 93.720 91.200 162.875 194.990 96.071 50.553 78.738 87.438 88.292 40.799
1990 91.472 59.603 71.105 71.797 63.738 50.147 73.094 70.969 45.967 60.314 65.407 55.602 78.071 57.232 63.746 57.050
1991 68.825 87.588 79.322 64.904 55.155 49.866 58.663 65.708 94.452 112.720 83.877 44.032 97.543 80.488 66.356 51.646
1992 55.842 70.002 79.447 82.753 75.706 58.294 84.039 82.632 56.522 77.226 93.322 67.951 94.649 96.539 106.393 64.869
1993 80.592 79.702 91.625 70.358 54.852 53.015 72.433 68.526 141.464 173.057 121.132 64.883 73.120 135.704 108.449 66.865
1994 123.803 84.212 100.222 136.680 137.222 101.840 112.687 107.014 62.992 84.992 136.680 104.644 132.607 152.436 213.412 99.040
1995 61.471 58.059 95.167 109.344 102.687 76.827 89.193 72.498 109.158 149.482 133.231 102.876 87.116 152.703 180.336 109.398
1996 74.602 76.243 56.336 65.898 67.263 77.272 101.590 72.568 64.346 71.458 64.435 109.972 96.211 63.064 80.921 103.872
1997 59.363 45.776 61.733 74.251 72.009 59.156 65.770 48.509 71.150 99.617 79.965 66.666 51.829 86.259 100.704 75.031
1998 84.398 79.168 268.672 259.861 223.522 159.656 81.408 63.062 241.179 324.836 341.583 122.449 65.168 336.072 323.242 118.811
1999 139.106 94.783 101.920 100.792 94.551 103.745 151.185 124.805 94.778 124.985 136.159 145.081 102.066 139.303 138.538 151.807
2000 53.403 59.274 90.828 117.925 118.215 91.686 43.119 43.060 150.291 209.382 127.157 91.219 38.697 144.655 189.362 111.689
2001 59.715 57.056 140.289 139.135 121.267 86.687 63.195 58.884 139.540 169.455 189.800 88.890 91.526 209.597 216.945 97.524
2002 78.297 39.432 70.798 87.356 83.681 77.760 57.272 43.786 79.717 108.961 90.832 58.080 50.685 92.315 117.888 64.110
2003 81.583 67.409 74.598 71.319 66.476 55.119 75.099 63.360 110.388 152.849 101.184 72.179 87.096 107.808 85.186 80.514
2004 77.283 74.990 58.227 63.479 57.840 59.953 128.543 119.392 66.180 53.638 79.180 118.623 149.405 78.447 85.536 133.332
2005 89.625 86.579 150.854 135.426 111.896 80.266 72.615 69.867 181.745 225.763 186.773 60.860 88.396 192.339 161.404 64.389
2006 94.654 104.088 54.746 58.062 55.359 45.995 113.051 121.022 96.034 126.976 69.736 93.846 179.243 80.775 81.927 93.351
2007 51.326 40.195 48.709 49.621 50.142 46.345 44.913 38.984 77.924 69.999 47.418 42.255 43.073 44.902 44.902 41.415
2008 36.434 55.783 51.637 53.474 47.592 33.994 43.204 51.182 60.159 40.886 57.893 33.931 62.541 53.477 59.290 32.146
2009 52.812 61.566 30.858 38.599 43.222 44.731 44.887 51.777 59.178 53.933 36.786 49.306 59.950 38.245 51.950 49.038
2010 69.044 55.622 86.336 90.994 81.654 58.326 65.988 55.371 68.066 74.892 93.891 50.026 82.628 85.458 87.778 43.597

AAiT - 160 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

….Con't
Grid No. 81.0 82.0 83.0 84.0 85.0 86.0 87.0 88.0 89.0 90.0 91.0 92.0 93.0 94.0 95.0 96.0 97.0
Longitude 38.6 38.9 38.9 38.9 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.4 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.9 40.1
Latitude 9.4 10.9 10.6 9.9 12.1 11.6 10.1 9.6 11.9 11.6 11.4 11.1 10.4 9.6 9.1 8.9 11.1
1983 85.7 112.6 112.5 52.3 118.9 143.2 82.1 55.0 117.8 129.6 118.5 114.0 111.0 54.0 54.0 50.4 51.0
1984 93.2 39.3 40.8 58.4 38.9 61.1 37.4 62.2 48.1 55.7 54.6 48.9 56.7 50.4 53.7 55.3 22.4
1985 67.5 66.8 93.6 66.2 36.3 64.3 78.0 52.8 60.6 84.8 90.0 76.2 86.6 48.5 42.6 33.2 62.4
1986 123.2 97.4 83.9 80.3 64.1 100.9 63.1 113.9 105.7 130.3 126.4 93.9 74.1 100.7 102.3 69.9 41.4
1987 68.2 72.4 85.2 34.6 50.7 65.8 65.9 50.4 52.6 70.8 72.0 62.9 114.4 54.8 47.8 50.5 26.9
1988 54.5 127.8 148.8 93.4 120.4 92.9 116.3 98.0 104.3 87.7 94.4 85.4 110.3 99.2 71.9 36.2 47.8
1989 65.6 79.7 76.2 37.9 144.2 183.7 49.8 93.6 132.4 140.3 126.3 90.2 83.7 94.0 86.5 60.4 38.6
1990 81.3 59.0 62.3 57.2 51.7 58.5 52.9 63.7 46.4 60.0 66.1 61.2 44.0 56.6 40.7 39.3 65.0
1991 78.4 69.1 49.8 54.3 80.3 108.0 55.0 84.6 79.8 90.1 83.3 71.9 107.9 82.4 79.7 50.6 62.2
1992 100.8 89.1 98.9 62.1 54.6 78.7 68.3 166.6 55.2 77.3 77.3 69.6 109.1 164.4 143.1 81.6 51.4
1993 98.4 135.3 113.6 68.0 122.3 164.9 86.7 89.8 117.8 129.3 131.6 124.6 106.9 84.5 69.4 43.4 53.4
1994 153.9 147.5 206.5 99.4 49.5 63.5 152.5 82.0 66.9 84.5 87.9 89.5 169.9 84.9 98.7 108.9 104.5
1995 139.4 153.6 191.1 104.7 165.3 188.3 164.2 114.5 206.4 233.0 224.5 181.2 201.0 98.6 97.0 69.5 77.6
1996 142.8 62.4 75.3 83.7 60.4 82.8 85.1 114.8 62.9 74.5 72.0 55.4 113.0 114.8 82.0 47.3 28.5
1997 105.5 76.2 88.0 74.7 59.5 87.4 94.5 108.4 81.9 98.7 94.2 86.3 123.7 115.1 92.2 80.4 60.2
1998 104.8 252.1 234.9 84.9 137.9 205.4 145.5 110.8 126.5 175.2 215.0 245.9 282.8 118.3 128.9 116.3 143.3
1999 159.3 111.3 117.2 148.2 128.3 92.8 141.3 138.1 93.0 91.9 104.0 101.8 131.8 116.6 72.8 51.8 80.8
2000 51.9 143.3 190.7 126.6 86.3 164.0 171.7 130.9 166.0 230.3 229.6 164.0 183.5 123.2 97.1 61.8 84.5
2001 81.2 199.7 224.9 102.2 128.8 171.1 159.0 129.6 132.8 182.3 181.8 149.2 215.0 129.9 96.5 79.5 84.0
2002 51.1 91.8 97.7 63.9 77.4 122.2 77.0 59.8 105.9 129.5 128.5 102.9 102.4 53.9 47.8 31.7 51.0
2003 107.3 94.5 82.5 86.1 63.1 92.5 73.8 123.4 76.7 107.4 110.6 86.2 85.4 113.6 97.0 65.3 37.0
2004 193.3 56.0 61.1 133.4 59.4 101.6 90.9 174.0 104.3 143.1 142.4 102.1 55.3 152.7 105.6 45.2 46.0
2005 82.8 167.6 132.5 82.5 143.0 221.1 126.3 100.0 147.8 176.9 172.1 133.2 166.5 97.4 112.6 87.3 73.6
2006 155.3 82.9 89.1 97.9 117.0 118.4 98.2 156.4 88.8 124.4 129.6 104.6 93.9 162.2 151.0 119.6 67.6
2007 42.6 44.6 42.0 40.4 88.9 66.1 38.2 41.0 67.0 57.7 55.5 47.6 40.7 40.0 50.4 46.7 36.8
2008 44.0 38.4 42.6 26.6 76.2 54.2 36.2 50.0 59.2 54.7 48.2 39.5 51.2 50.8 44.6 38.8 31.4
2009 41.7 36.6 46.5 47.9 99.4 51.3 47.0 55.5 63.6 75.3 79.9 67.5 42.5 51.4 34.8 28.9 40.4
2010 62.0 69.2 78.8 45.3 87.0 116.0 73.5 62.4 123.9 165.1 167.6 131.5 100.8 69.9 63.4 57.3 64.5

AAiT - 161 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

GLADS- 2 day for 0.25 by 0.25 grid Size, year 1983-2010

Grid No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Longitude 34.63 34.63 34.63 35.13 35.38 35.38 35.63 35.63 35.63 35.88 35.88 36.13 36.13 36.13 36.13 36.13
Latitude 10.13 9.88 9.63 9.88 9.63 8.13 9.38 9.13 8.13 9.13 8.88 10.63 9.38 9.13 8.38 7.88
1983 143.22 131.40 119.59 115.88 92.81 127.10 98.44 85.40 129.92 81.74 92.95 96.76 80.40 78.08 80.41 58.43
1984 65.55 73.76 103.26 56.34 94.07 76.41 104.13 101.49 73.81 100.04 108.32 63.71 88.50 98.59 108.83 59.26
1985 41.77 37.89 50.66 43.68 47.91 48.18 64.02 62.94 47.27 65.97 64.09 68.07 79.44 70.56 136.54 84.98
1986 131.74 82.60 70.93 101.90 71.75 62.51 65.68 58.71 66.31 56.52 59.71 120.52 77.52 69.83 97.12 77.68
1987 95.92 96.49 127.78 88.64 111.31 74.28 146.38 139.77 86.67 150.40 145.14 133.00 164.94 161.03 138.99 106.63
1988 103.47 85.50 96.07 91.29 103.15 93.21 98.75 94.26 89.43 106.95 102.29 87.22 156.97 151.34 122.86 71.05
1989 101.77 90.90 124.78 103.76 153.92 81.22 138.92 99.23 88.11 70.88 78.38 133.65 75.63 76.16 83.88 64.23
1990 101.69 133.86 166.02 132.36 173.15 138.55 161.43 172.31 138.82 143.48 154.54 88.10 103.44 114.67 131.57 87.99
1991 72.24 93.77 130.85 135.09 215.05 89.10 203.54 154.59 86.58 110.42 75.46 76.73 87.23 75.50 113.71 77.09
1992 109.67 101.74 101.15 116.72 127.42 109.74 122.33 125.01 106.97 118.42 120.72 82.27 109.89 111.83 105.62 97.53
1993 116.75 107.08 135.05 116.26 134.84 85.22 117.21 109.58 88.13 96.84 94.92 72.18 96.57 95.55 102.23 69.55
1994 67.02 111.70 156.38 86.52 169.59 88.64 194.02 172.93 103.11 140.73 138.63 113.58 127.36 124.05 147.54 83.29
1995 69.59 67.61 94.65 59.24 89.65 107.81 89.65 88.84 101.92 63.45 74.04 75.25 99.70 92.14 74.00 47.70
1996 93.97 98.43 102.89 76.49 84.28 98.81 92.91 94.52 95.07 93.27 97.43 69.24 118.30 97.74 95.20 80.59
1997 127.84 133.46 139.09 132.72 129.66 69.51 132.98 118.05 76.50 108.81 106.78 116.25 115.64 106.42 77.13 100.82
1998 71.40 113.60 155.81 116.00 160.99 133.85 161.25 153.41 122.47 123.06 126.88 77.06 116.49 118.79 112.79 92.66
1999 69.12 72.75 80.33 81.38 104.15 74.96 112.97 101.66 78.21 103.68 91.28 115.43 119.22 105.71 75.95 75.15
2000 70.65 49.93 62.53 43.95 80.17 78.09 91.90 87.44 83.01 74.76 76.36 84.55 91.99 74.07 87.03 87.10
2001 148.26 118.88 140.41 146.62 237.71 177.39 230.42 183.42 166.10 131.01 97.45 159.56 111.37 103.40 136.37 138.30
2002 78.59 78.41 82.30 72.26 98.69 60.92 90.76 74.66 58.97 61.72 65.48 141.11 69.54 60.27 65.43 59.42
2003 88.45 80.44 97.90 83.17 143.17 115.96 170.12 165.36 108.19 150.29 144.01 113.84 143.02 135.22 107.62 75.19
2004 68.88 61.04 76.26 59.35 72.26 54.54 76.40 75.98 53.50 59.33 60.11 57.48 69.12 66.06 80.93 64.35
2005 98.37 85.73 111.08 115.45 169.84 84.92 173.29 161.25 86.73 124.14 114.91 158.28 133.82 117.75 70.51 80.01
2006 96.80 90.31 83.99 91.33 95.47 71.27 87.21 74.53 70.61 81.53 78.74 119.18 92.68 97.10 97.47 61.21
2007 66.70 82.15 97.61 61.85 73.61 76.35 70.37 72.11 74.88 70.08 73.39 61.19 66.16 68.05 66.91 68.36
2008 58.42 57.91 59.75 49.58 68.78 56.42 68.31 63.69 63.67 62.54 60.93 46.81 65.21 62.63 63.83 64.51
2009 58.05 75.11 105.15 51.25 87.42 54.12 102.27 85.76 50.60 79.02 62.91 41.21 88.01 72.29 62.54 59.03
2010 48.11 48.76 49.39 80.10 125.80 41.56 122.16 87.25 47.42 70.67 53.03 125.48 76.43 64.57 56.75 56.99

AAiT - 162 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Con't
Grid No. 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
Longitude 36.13 36.38 36.38 36.38 36.38 36.38 36.38 36.38 36.38 36.63 36.63 36.63 36.63 36.63 36.63 36.88
Latitude 7.63 12.88 11.38 10.88 9.38 9.13 8.88 8.63 8.38 9.88 9.13 8.88 8.63 8.13 7.88 11.38
1983 65.41 68.17 102.57 97.44 107.65 77.79 84.46 110.58 109.69 111.58 98.66 86.84 112.46 82.22 77.80 128.38
1984 69.77 94.83 81.46 75.01 95.72 97.15 109.06 120.96 111.73 78.63 114.77 112.93 111.55 77.94 76.61 93.73
1985 62.18 50.39 111.07 80.63 106.21 91.61 122.82 171.94 179.14 91.93 97.19 141.79 190.68 157.00 118.25 117.07
1986 93.92 114.66 150.85 114.15 101.71 83.14 94.20 131.89 133.77 90.19 81.40 116.18 151.90 110.55 97.05 158.89
1987 112.28 59.82 98.58 112.41 174.21 171.66 169.10 166.54 153.90 137.10 170.42 167.68 164.94 131.77 113.49 77.60
1988 67.08 107.18 95.72 78.02 202.35 195.73 189.10 182.48 160.17 143.69 210.66 197.84 185.01 122.80 90.92 66.90
1989 72.51 68.42 112.31 147.95 92.56 88.40 84.23 81.78 78.01 98.92 97.80 91.19 84.58 67.91 81.20 112.75
1990 77.08 124.75 127.20 88.76 116.90 100.38 103.97 125.90 122.86 152.00 103.28 98.07 118.82 81.24 69.12 104.63
1991 62.84 108.72 179.99 93.69 112.82 102.13 123.93 155.98 152.58 102.23 110.40 143.97 177.55 121.46 72.88 128.49
1992 106.43 107.56 79.99 92.74 128.96 115.82 106.81 108.38 96.69 148.29 122.55 106.28 91.63 75.76 107.01 64.97
1993 83.80 87.56 167.79 123.28 122.63 119.38 116.11 112.85 106.07 113.45 136.00 132.48 128.96 99.31 84.43 147.19
1994 88.49 61.42 104.52 113.58 110.33 126.73 143.13 159.53 155.55 158.44 117.52 132.09 152.77 111.30 125.17 76.14
1995 63.02 99.74 111.96 75.25 138.08 127.14 116.20 105.26 87.31 97.09 134.15 124.03 113.90 68.02 58.62 124.98
1996 85.81 68.13 102.36 87.21 148.42 116.96 100.03 109.29 99.68 126.19 127.04 100.48 111.04 88.75 95.87 83.15
1997 129.33 105.10 133.80 115.02 117.15 109.75 102.35 96.44 93.94 103.66 100.04 100.64 109.04 89.65 97.22 93.96
1998 124.95 226.84 173.54 104.09 113.74 114.53 115.31 116.09 107.26 79.46 100.34 101.69 109.10 104.44 125.11 170.83
1999 77.69 139.30 174.53 163.80 122.34 107.73 93.10 78.49 73.09 122.57 109.14 92.64 76.14 77.73 88.70 203.98
2000 121.94 159.25 166.98 134.57 106.41 84.25 100.68 118.02 113.90 88.01 88.39 108.81 129.24 98.20 118.94 256.12
2001 139.26 68.41 101.12 163.03 145.94 136.04 126.13 137.40 159.74 147.40 148.66 139.01 129.97 162.52 171.86 100.45
2002 68.96 112.63 227.78 141.11 95.95 71.11 75.68 93.21 89.29 158.62 78.25 84.21 101.85 69.17 73.90 183.95
2003 76.62 139.28 104.28 108.00 129.46 120.15 110.83 101.51 92.36 116.62 122.41 114.52 106.63 71.99 94.91 84.50
2004 79.07 78.40 149.78 96.76 96.78 92.48 89.16 113.92 110.72 80.73 105.30 100.27 112.98 78.51 83.95 146.28
2005 91.23 90.26 200.70 142.84 167.84 150.15 132.47 114.78 95.11 111.49 154.84 139.14 123.44 96.48 106.72 213.72
2006 85.71 103.43 163.37 118.16 129.28 135.93 142.59 149.23 136.46 97.09 156.85 163.40 169.95 118.76 82.45 119.64
2007 76.28 78.20 89.24 69.68 65.56 66.02 66.48 66.94 63.30 55.68 59.96 59.87 59.78 52.08 57.37 75.72
2008 64.85 62.93 61.58 53.57 66.27 62.72 62.11 66.77 67.53 61.37 58.96 63.49 68.01 64.60 60.83 59.85
2009 57.28 69.33 61.19 47.73 80.88 65.55 55.40 75.38 74.89 60.80 58.60 57.06 76.39 71.19 64.64 55.16
….....

AAiT - 163 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Con't
Grid No. 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Longitude 36.88 36.88 36.88 36.88 36.88 36.88 36.88 36.88 37.13 37.13 37.13 37.13 37.13 37.13 37.13 37.13
Latitude 10.88 10.63 9.13 8.63 8.38 8.13 7.88 7.63 12.63 12.38 11.38 10.63 9.88 9.63 9.13 7.88
1983 108.98 148.51 120.84 108.17 94.21 72.63 69.70 76.76 96.21 95.52 135.81 149.06 112.81 116.02 143.03 85.07
1984 75.75 66.75 134.99 126.32 111.87 87.28 70.37 98.52 94.43 94.43 101.29 61.75 108.71 146.54 155.21 68.96
1985 92.73 124.33 113.64 186.97 186.38 148.52 110.67 72.82 120.06 117.54 133.50 145.15 91.26 85.52 134.39 103.10
1986 129.35 152.66 112.19 154.25 145.88 108.13 89.30 115.70 92.23 112.02 169.73 171.65 92.73 118.45 143.92 82.02
1987 71.85 72.03 157.33 148.40 136.21 116.29 111.38 113.95 96.37 93.18 113.75 106.05 111.46 139.51 144.24 109.28
1988 63.24 74.90 196.15 147.67 123.78 102.07 80.37 76.23 112.40 102.70 111.50 84.59 146.95 205.73 181.64 69.81
1989 122.57 144.35 104.35 90.78 76.66 65.63 76.92 88.20 110.60 112.60 110.78 119.37 107.27 131.24 110.92 72.64
1990 93.50 130.24 101.55 84.87 80.86 58.03 50.64 51.76 119.07 126.51 102.30 126.49 148.24 151.32 100.02 45.33
1991 69.51 95.21 121.23 176.12 166.11 118.65 71.19 68.11 112.11 104.11 114.44 84.49 104.03 131.43 132.06 69.50
1992 116.25 143.51 107.22 70.89 62.04 61.91 84.88 110.57 96.43 104.41 77.31 151.42 137.65 127.19 91.89 65.07
1993 114.60 98.31 136.14 131.28 120.28 100.70 81.11 113.27 134.85 138.05 117.49 86.87 129.38 149.07 136.28 81.51
1994 139.78 195.70 109.73 119.10 114.58 111.17 130.04 148.90 96.61 97.31 96.88 205.00 185.76 166.35 125.29 134.90
1995 101.40 90.43 113.17 102.93 87.82 62.73 48.71 61.05 103.51 89.63 123.00 113.59 64.49 83.89 92.18 48.43
1996 75.88 77.49 127.99 96.06 87.53 84.07 89.64 98.27 92.56 86.50 64.95 88.89 126.33 163.15 128.94 90.62
1997 84.83 97.68 92.10 106.68 101.65 84.31 79.13 105.49 120.81 108.34 70.18 101.87 69.92 97.90 91.96 61.03
1998 107.35 80.10 87.45 91.30 95.72 102.65 118.39 158.64 238.70 238.89 168.73 82.36 79.88 100.71 107.96 111.67
1999 203.81 203.73 109.96 71.60 65.21 71.60 83.46 98.65 175.72 203.61 211.81 216.43 118.40 135.17 110.77 78.21
2000 140.39 118.99 80.96 124.40 122.41 96.70 94.32 122.89 171.97 175.35 306.27 122.04 74.79 91.73 76.68 85.33
2001 151.75 205.75 141.28 126.85 116.73 129.49 142.24 155.01 123.85 128.42 90.59 172.73 108.21 130.12 133.90 112.63
2002 169.02 236.62 72.22 94.11 88.07 62.91 69.26 92.16 112.19 113.63 133.04 244.01 170.44 127.07 72.64 66.79
2003 100.13 111.48 123.67 92.06 86.96 69.72 103.93 138.12 178.51 166.60 99.08 140.22 155.46 158.82 124.92 112.93
2004 97.42 72.99 104.51 93.95 80.18 57.93 80.23 112.32 127.62 133.40 129.68 74.45 103.04 118.74 118.93 76.51
2005 115.94 104.56 131.80 111.57 96.95 97.06 107.10 117.13 121.29 145.22 203.29 106.70 97.90 116.35 121.54 111.28
2006 92.22 88.88 159.85 168.75 153.32 118.02 82.71 85.52 118.50 109.00 103.54 95.50 105.25 141.30 162.84 82.97
2007 68.40 80.02 49.86 50.35 48.55 44.69 53.10 62.42 81.52 76.69 93.95 78.99 63.85 71.22 55.98 48.83
2008 50.49 52.35 56.48 65.01 66.38 64.71 63.05 63.82 75.49 68.02 61.99 54.16 65.79 69.38 56.53 65.27
2009 47.73 51.63 48.26 80.05 84.48 76.74 69.00 72.33 65.81 71.41 48.28 50.99 64.80 76.18 54.45 73.37
2010 127.45 142.16 66.12 73.42 73.96 63.42 57.19 80.06 127.54 112.84 90.64 118.95 78.64 82.56 76.05 56.86

AAiT - 164 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Con't
Grid No. 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64
Longitude 37.13 37.38 37.38 37.38 37.38 37.38 37.38 37.38 37.38 37.63 37.63 37.63 37.63 37.63 37.88 37.88
Latitude 7.63 12.63 12.38 11.63 11.38 10.63 10.38 9.63 7.88 12.88 11.88 11.38 10.88 10.38 11.88 11.13
1983 81.65 99.73 99.16 145.25 143.24 149.62 159.24 110.37 119.10 64.43 97.19 128.69 98.08 140.14 74.73 80.87
1984 89.79 132.20 132.20 105.80 108.85 73.96 75.32 167.53 75.21 94.43 72.90 101.21 69.14 72.61 59.90 60.67
1985 76.82 143.31 141.44 154.30 178.48 191.35 171.77 119.73 95.52 99.93 118.21 190.02 200.45 184.71 106.42 174.09
1986 106.53 114.23 93.67 174.19 180.58 190.65 193.11 164.65 87.69 137.15 127.01 162.75 125.09 177.28 98.01 98.88
1987 111.68 110.18 104.87 135.86 149.89 143.13 124.26 128.23 107.18 89.90 108.67 158.97 162.39 144.38 92.78 150.31
1988 75.88 124.64 115.83 155.25 156.10 118.41 118.41 208.02 59.91 106.97 114.75 156.10 93.36 119.72 90.77 137.77
1989 81.92 114.58 116.69 111.89 108.83 125.37 125.65 157.43 68.36 90.08 79.75 100.65 91.85 127.84 86.56 98.75
1990 51.78 104.19 110.78 123.70 133.58 151.63 141.85 151.92 52.96 68.66 90.65 137.96 130.81 138.90 75.78 108.78
1991 70.84 102.17 95.60 117.86 115.22 96.92 87.55 132.35 70.84 81.17 79.00 110.78 90.72 82.55 75.89 88.41
1992 81.10 95.73 103.71 90.34 92.87 159.34 162.80 117.09 88.61 73.83 85.99 88.08 124.61 144.56 64.74 88.84
1993 108.33 135.29 137.63 100.13 108.30 81.60 96.22 157.90 81.91 94.49 78.84 94.13 73.41 93.56 97.06 105.91
1994 156.11 106.87 106.13 101.77 117.62 214.31 235.82 181.21 139.77 77.85 78.02 111.99 137.52 213.69 67.49 81.05
1995 54.20 111.71 100.89 103.47 121.01 137.55 126.37 87.79 48.16 107.43 72.96 105.01 122.23 128.73 92.72 121.30
1996 98.40 101.41 95.00 72.62 76.48 110.55 110.29 163.07 105.42 92.98 60.46 78.38 76.79 110.42 53.67 74.89
1997 81.62 153.64 138.82 63.69 73.01 108.75 103.74 109.33 54.82 153.59 69.47 72.39 91.44 95.40 64.66 90.63
1998 149.60 223.21 224.54 186.23 166.62 101.05 106.89 123.59 104.95 176.96 180.36 166.33 143.88 113.90 177.37 226.15
1999 91.10 218.44 248.05 238.47 219.64 229.13 201.99 137.68 72.96 149.87 224.00 201.95 202.56 181.80 161.71 142.21
2000 110.01 148.54 154.67 350.17 356.42 140.74 139.61 82.71 76.34 102.68 239.84 333.80 180.90 135.89 173.32 183.82
2001 128.81 129.62 134.77 109.75 107.25 139.71 138.69 120.42 83.01 82.81 90.22 126.00 89.99 106.71 109.71 122.07
2002 86.78 113.77 109.96 117.13 117.79 251.39 265.11 131.98 64.31 100.57 86.14 119.80 160.85 238.19 73.75 72.49
2003 148.48 184.76 174.25 98.62 120.74 168.96 176.57 174.03 121.94 151.31 92.62 119.73 153.67 176.42 73.21 112.44
2004 107.11 128.49 133.51 115.34 113.08 78.94 83.92 134.36 72.78 80.59 87.16 102.45 66.04 76.99 75.75 56.33
2005 120.79 154.82 176.70 207.97 192.86 121.78 123.57 130.77 115.47 122.12 177.46 164.19 105.35 117.75 130.94 161.84
2006 82.01 164.97 152.60 139.40 142.43 102.11 99.86 146.76 83.23 146.24 111.96 143.04 90.63 91.20 108.29 88.50
2007 57.84 78.24 73.63 120.99 122.18 90.41 90.38 83.65 48.47 61.69 103.92 126.61 80.23 85.31 97.54 87.55
2008 67.34 98.39 86.89 61.17 64.13 59.49 64.00 70.42 67.49 115.92 56.32 60.10 47.44 59.22 53.39 48.61
2009 67.24 66.09 71.85 58.90 51.87 56.32 53.62 100.50 77.73 70.88 58.54 49.22 52.30 51.70 46.84 41.38
2010 79.59 144.85 127.85 71.02 83.25 95.76 89.75 91.98 63.12 132.26 61.48 77.15 77.68 72.67 56.00 72.79

AAiT - 165 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Con't
Grid No. 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80
Longitude 37.88 37.88 38.13 38.13 38.13 38.13 38.13 38.13 38.38 38.38 38.38 38.38 38.38 38.63 38.63 38.63
Latitude 9.63 8.88 10.88 10.63 10.38 10.13 9.38 9.13 11.88 11.63 10.88 9.88 8.88 10.88 10.63 9.88
1983 95.56 169.13 80.29 74.30 64.41 56.06 104.24 120.47 158.50 172.58 100.75 60.83 104.25 111.87 100.70 57.58
1984 126.74 141.76 54.58 56.59 51.31 54.03 107.77 113.69 56.53 70.75 67.37 76.69 97.47 65.89 72.05 73.06
1985 94.62 112.48 159.70 166.44 151.82 115.85 97.99 90.66 82.86 107.98 139.31 95.25 90.58 115.49 123.41 102.33
1986 120.00 109.88 110.25 86.81 81.46 64.70 105.66 99.70 157.18 215.67 149.02 94.33 124.35 155.54 119.99 106.48
1987 81.87 96.09 156.87 173.81 159.72 114.63 91.89 97.37 80.37 110.13 154.11 73.25 109.59 135.96 161.20 67.50
1988 137.83 76.09 185.44 193.15 176.97 136.89 81.27 73.75 127.55 173.88 231.49 125.61 80.28 243.95 260.97 139.43
1989 129.39 98.62 100.74 99.31 87.17 64.30 106.51 92.74 166.22 198.34 106.10 55.35 78.74 96.89 98.87 52.93
1990 95.14 91.01 94.64 95.50 85.33 66.50 105.93 102.32 61.25 80.40 87.15 81.35 106.40 73.73 84.65 76.07
1991 86.68 114.26 79.32 64.90 56.02 51.67 74.68 79.09 94.45 112.72 83.88 58.71 98.77 80.49 66.36 68.86
1992 76.06 79.03 108.70 114.68 105.81 82.09 105.80 102.75 75.14 98.63 128.77 87.71 120.53 136.98 152.83 87.31
1993 106.65 96.57 124.66 97.31 75.34 70.25 75.25 68.53 187.98 230.53 162.34 67.65 73.12 180.94 144.60 67.34
1994 164.62 112.34 138.56 183.89 185.86 144.47 147.09 128.73 83.99 113.32 183.89 136.90 138.83 203.25 284.55 152.29
1995 90.34 71.12 169.24 186.93 173.72 129.61 124.06 101.90 132.25 152.43 211.19 138.57 105.86 242.30 274.73 145.70
1996 105.44 82.02 82.85 86.01 77.39 81.45 104.97 89.24 81.21 95.07 88.94 114.05 127.82 82.43 86.40 111.29
1997 79.15 65.05 123.36 124.01 110.35 82.39 99.67 79.61 106.54 132.82 156.80 92.36 70.32 152.26 154.77 101.74
1998 88.18 96.55 286.98 276.75 238.86 173.29 102.44 89.00 259.82 341.84 358.53 130.93 89.62 351.94 340.31 125.43
1999 139.11 99.00 127.75 125.33 115.45 103.74 152.23 127.93 120.21 160.59 172.32 145.08 108.27 175.47 172.89 151.81
2000 62.38 85.30 136.30 145.81 135.71 105.98 59.58 63.68 208.42 281.85 190.81 102.56 55.56 209.57 228.82 121.71
2001 72.23 76.08 155.85 147.78 126.74 92.72 79.01 77.90 152.13 210.32 211.58 88.89 107.49 234.79 233.53 97.52
2002 114.98 51.49 75.45 102.96 114.62 110.41 89.30 68.06 136.93 178.46 91.35 79.06 67.36 106.39 117.89 84.84
2003 117.71 90.50 103.99 119.81 120.20 105.16 86.56 79.27 121.35 159.76 104.44 95.69 115.79 107.81 126.08 107.35
2004 103.62 121.06 83.35 89.33 81.75 81.56 173.82 168.07 66.65 75.79 108.11 159.17 203.56 105.57 115.25 178.36
2005 89.85 96.29 201.14 180.57 149.14 106.87 87.89 93.58 242.33 301.02 249.03 81.35 119.85 256.45 215.21 85.14
2006 94.65 104.09 84.14 85.97 78.65 62.20 113.05 121.02 128.04 169.30 87.92 99.60 179.24 101.20 99.00 107.44
2007 71.27 61.80 69.35 56.46 55.79 53.03 63.84 65.04 105.38 94.65 65.31 52.66 70.72 58.10 51.39 49.36
2008 61.59 60.44 53.23 54.90 48.77 39.17 54.69 57.30 73.70 45.40 59.37 53.19 69.91 54.75 60.40 52.40
2009 70.42 79.43 42.26 51.84 57.63 59.64 59.85 66.37 74.06 71.60 51.18 65.74 79.40 55.04 68.29 64.96
2010 81.45 65.55 86.34 90.99 81.65 65.60 69.93 59.68 73.39 74.89 93.89 60.76 83.39 85.46 92.53 57.38

AAiT - 166 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Con't
Grid No. 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Longitude 38.63 38.88 38.88 38.88 39.13 39.13 39.13 39.38 39.63 39.63 39.63 39.63 39.63 39.63 39.63 39.88 40.13
Latitude 9.38 10.88 10.63 9.88 12.13 11.63 10.13 9.63 11.88 11.63 11.38 11.13 10.38 9.63 9.13 8.88 11.13
1983 91.47 112.58 112.49 52.41 169.28 206.33 82.08 66.78 168.85 186.61 175.62 135.87 111.03 71.98 72.03 67.26 58.23
1984 93.23 52.63 55.76 63.02 51.23 81.41 50.52 62.24 60.53 73.08 72.75 59.55 75.89 56.11 53.69 55.29 29.82
1985 108.61 88.23 96.17 93.62 44.15 72.19 92.69 76.25 69.42 89.85 93.60 80.68 103.73 61.90 61.68 53.10 62.38
1986 164.26 129.81 111.91 107.13 98.23 133.58 70.40 151.81 135.45 171.89 168.32 124.73 87.90 134.27 136.46 93.16 55.03
1987 100.13 102.41 121.44 53.78 71.93 82.67 91.20 64.47 79.29 94.46 95.98 82.26 151.97 69.42 68.56 79.03 38.66
1988 70.57 222.82 240.25 138.31 120.39 144.52 173.69 107.30 104.30 121.29 122.69 135.05 162.09 104.42 80.57 49.45 72.79
1989 65.57 79.72 76.17 46.77 144.23 183.66 59.75 95.46 135.08 142.05 127.34 90.95 84.73 94.04 86.48 60.41 42.51
1990 100.70 66.87 69.77 76.24 68.69 71.40 70.55 84.90 59.40 74.44 82.82 78.32 69.10 75.44 52.50 56.89 79.36
1991 104.47 69.15 72.50 72.38 80.34 108.00 76.51 113.61 79.81 90.08 83.31 87.33 143.86 110.60 106.89 68.19 62.18
1992 131.28 133.31 150.39 79.51 68.60 98.82 108.96 166.61 71.72 81.50 81.44 91.05 121.21 164.74 145.62 84.63 54.79
1993 98.38 180.44 151.44 76.53 162.63 219.81 110.41 113.81 157.08 172.44 175.46 166.13 132.70 111.22 90.93 63.64 71.20
1994 155.34 196.65 275.30 149.24 67.09 85.53 209.35 95.07 89.20 112.62 117.20 97.38 226.53 104.01 131.66 145.18 139.35
1995 185.59 262.56 289.36 146.61 178.72 219.66 227.09 152.69 206.41 232.96 251.80 262.93 267.94 131.18 129.06 92.20 112.69
1996 152.34 73.88 78.63 88.05 65.57 94.72 85.70 114.84 64.69 77.09 76.79 69.61 112.97 114.84 98.72 72.92 35.36
1997 139.49 109.75 115.23 103.12 77.34 116.55 100.56 141.43 109.54 132.18 128.44 98.34 123.74 124.92 102.83 80.37 60.33
1998 117.79 267.21 251.26 91.23 145.95 215.74 192.43 160.44 168.63 233.60 286.71 327.93 377.13 171.65 169.73 154.11 191.02
1999 160.75 137.18 137.19 148.17 172.67 123.76 141.28 138.11 124.05 122.56 138.61 135.69 131.83 116.62 78.73 64.59 81.19
2000 70.69 192.56 219.86 133.73 121.14 218.66 178.87 131.41 221.39 307.03 306.12 218.66 183.47 123.20 97.15 61.78 112.61
2001 112.97 225.46 247.01 102.16 137.93 177.84 176.67 171.39 192.36 248.77 242.35 173.11 249.52 169.12 127.38 104.45 97.41
2002 74.01 124.98 98.64 82.42 97.25 168.51 86.93 78.74 105.86 129.49 143.05 146.54 136.56 70.75 63.38 41.16 62.80
2003 124.24 94.48 102.00 114.83 84.16 96.20 97.38 164.52 76.72 107.40 110.57 86.24 93.23 151.50 123.41 85.76 48.87
2004 255.08 75.76 82.44 177.21 79.13 135.42 120.46 228.81 139.03 190.80 190.23 137.36 73.10 200.80 139.48 62.00 67.71
2005 89.12 223.41 176.69 113.73 190.47 294.79 171.74 139.56 197.70 236.88 230.28 177.91 221.49 135.93 152.42 122.95 84.72
2006 155.25 103.50 90.03 126.79 130.54 157.83 128.54 188.35 118.46 165.85 173.57 141.62 108.74 175.65 152.72 126.39 91.12
2007 63.29 57.20 47.81 42.80 115.80 92.39 48.86 54.77 89.41 86.35 77.90 64.73 52.53 54.85 68.86 66.56 51.29
2008 71.92 43.71 52.74 42.73 102.39 74.22 47.60 50.01 85.36 81.95 73.41 59.74 72.59 50.84 45.68 47.87 55.65
2009 54.28 53.82 65.61 62.67 128.36 68.41 59.71 73.03 82.46 100.45 105.48 86.84 53.42 66.41 45.11 36.43 58.88
2010 61.95 92.29 96.68 57.24 114.24 157.55 94.32 83.24 165.23 220.10 223.48 175.37 141.77 93.27 84.52 76.46 100.43

AAiT - 167 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

GLADS-3 day for 0.25 by 0.25 grid Size, year 1983-2010

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Lon 34.625 34.625 34.625 35.125 35.375 35.375 35.625 35.625 35.625 35.875 35.875 36.125 36.125 36.125
Lat 10.125 9.875 9.625 9.875 9.625 8.125 9.375 9.125 8.125 9.125 8.875 10.625 9.375 9.125
1983 147.1 136.3 125.5 123.1 122.8 168.1 137.5 126.3 172.8 123.2 126.1 93.6 132.6 120.1
1984 93.6 102.8 111.9 61.3 113.9 93.5 135.3 126.6 95.3 112.9 109.7 72.5 103.8 100.7
1985 52.1 44.6 57.3 44.4 51.9 59.8 58.0 57.1 52.6 65.3 69.1 82.7 88.8 93.6
1986 100.2 64.9 65.6 78.9 82.3 74.5 75.2 75.0 72.8 59.1 64.6 93.3 78.9 71.3
1987 96.4 97.3 127.8 92.8 140.6 113.9 185.9 179.7 119.4 195.8 190.7 133.2 215.9 211.9
1988 104.3 90.8 100.8 96.1 111.9 124.2 114.8 118.3 120.3 109.2 110.1 87.2 115.7 107.4
1989 113.0 95.1 126.2 105.6 154.1 98.7 139.2 100.5 108.7 100.0 114.3 142.3 113.2 115.7
1990 103.9 105.4 138.0 106.7 144.1 94.3 135.2 131.3 96.7 108.5 115.7 125.6 112.0 90.6
1991 85.6 107.9 146.2 141.2 217.2 89.3 203.8 155.5 86.6 111.1 81.9 93.4 108.3 85.8
1992 82.4 80.3 101.2 92.0 114.1 128.7 122.3 125.0 136.3 118.4 120.7 97.9 109.9 111.8
1993 116.7 107.1 98.8 116.3 134.8 85.6 117.6 109.9 89.1 96.8 94.9 79.8 120.6 116.1
1994 66.9 101.1 141.5 122.4 186.3 86.9 194.0 172.9 83.4 140.7 120.8 115.6 127.4 116.8
1995 81.0 67.6 94.7 61.9 102.9 107.9 113.1 116.8 102.3 83.4 86.0 86.1 119.2 112.9
1996 122.7 128.0 133.2 86.7 111.7 99.4 127.4 129.8 109.9 121.6 137.7 69.2 110.1 113.5
1997 192.2 192.7 193.3 183.3 172.6 107.7 178.3 138.4 107.8 137.5 122.7 131.7 154.2 141.9
1998 87.0 114.7 157.3 117.9 164.2 133.8 149.7 153.4 122.5 123.1 126.9 118.2 116.5 118.8
1999 93.9 84.2 80.5 82.2 100.8 76.5 107.0 109.1 90.1 108.4 109.1 126.0 108.5 107.7
2000 110.5 75.6 88.1 82.2 81.9 91.2 93.7 97.0 89.0 85.3 91.6 85.2 94.7 87.5
2001 149.2 133.7 187.2 195.5 316.9 177.4 307.7 246.1 166.7 179.3 137.6 167.9 138.5 112.5
2002 97.7 96.7 96.5 83.4 101.9 75.7 90.8 74.7 74.6 61.7 65.5 141.3 69.9 60.3
2003 88.4 80.4 97.9 92.9 144.2 122.6 170.1 165.4 115.8 150.3 144.0 113.8 143.0 135.2
2004 93.8 71.0 71.0 100.0 91.2 63.0 87.3 84.4 67.0 72.4 69.1 94.2 90.0 83.9
2005 98.7 102.8 134.1 160.5 229.8 116.4 229.8 214.1 114.0 162.8 151.5 169.5 134.3 119.3
2006 139.0 126.9 114.8 110.4 110.7 75.5 109.5 101.9 79.2 105.6 105.8 90.9 137.4 143.9
2007 76.5 88.6 100.8 66.2 73.7 110.6 89.8 96.1 106.2 93.4 97.9 62.5 88.2 90.7
2008 80.9 73.5 71.3 63.6 91.8 80.5 96.4 87.5 88.3 88.8 89.9 66.0 92.4 92.3
2009 63.4 75.1 105.1 59.5 116.6 60.4 136.2 114.0 56.0 104.2 82.0 38.6 116.7 94.5
2010 42.8 51.3 59.8 61.2 97.1 62.7 90.7 65.8 62.6 66.5 55.0 87.5 80.3 67.3

AAiT - 168 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

GLADS- 3 day for 0.25 by 0.25 grid Size, year 1983-2010

Grid No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Longitude 34.625 34.625 34.625 35.125 35.375 35.375 35.625 35.625 35.625 35.875 35.875 36.125 36.125 36.125 36.125 36.125
Latitude 10.125 9.875 9.625 9.875 9.625 8.125 9.375 9.125 8.125 9.125 8.875 10.625 9.375 9.125 8.375 7.875
1983 147.1 136.3 125.5 123.1 122.8 168.1 137.5 126.3 172.8 123.2 126.1 93.6 132.6 120.1 112.5 88.3
1984 93.6 102.8 111.9 61.3 113.9 93.5 135.3 126.6 95.3 112.9 109.7 72.5 103.8 100.7 111.6 72.6
1985 52.1 44.6 57.3 44.4 51.9 59.8 58.0 57.1 52.6 65.3 69.1 82.7 88.8 93.6 143.3 101.2
1986 100.2 64.9 65.6 78.9 82.3 74.5 75.2 75.0 72.8 59.1 64.6 93.3 78.9 71.3 98.7 77.7
1987 96.4 97.3 127.8 92.8 140.6 113.9 185.9 179.7 119.4 195.8 190.7 133.2 215.9 211.9 184.9 121.4
1988 104.3 90.8 100.8 96.1 111.9 124.2 114.8 118.3 120.3 109.2 110.1 87.2 115.7 107.4 106.6 99.5
1989 113.0 95.1 126.2 105.6 154.1 98.7 139.2 100.5 108.7 100.0 114.3 142.3 113.2 115.7 125.9 102.1
1990 103.9 105.4 138.0 106.7 144.1 94.3 135.2 131.3 96.7 108.5 115.7 125.6 112.0 90.6 100.6 78.4
1991 85.6 107.9 146.2 141.2 217.2 89.3 203.8 155.5 86.6 111.1 81.9 93.4 108.3 85.8 113.7 77.1
1992 82.4 80.3 101.2 92.0 114.1 128.7 122.3 125.0 136.3 118.4 120.7 97.9 109.9 111.8 105.6 133.5
1993 116.7 107.1 98.8 116.3 134.8 85.6 117.6 109.9 89.1 96.8 94.9 79.8 120.6 116.1 103.3 93.6
1994 66.9 101.1 141.5 122.4 186.3 86.9 194.0 172.9 83.4 140.7 120.8 115.6 127.4 116.8 111.6 72.8
1995 81.0 67.6 94.7 61.9 102.9 107.9 113.1 116.8 102.3 83.4 86.0 86.1 119.2 112.9 85.0 53.2
1996 122.7 128.0 133.2 86.7 111.7 99.4 127.4 129.8 109.9 121.6 137.7 69.2 110.1 113.5 134.3 89.6
1997 192.2 192.7 193.3 183.3 172.6 107.7 178.3 138.4 107.8 137.5 122.7 131.7 154.2 141.9 97.9 132.9
1998 87.0 114.7 157.3 117.9 164.2 133.8 149.7 153.4 122.5 123.1 126.9 118.2 116.5 118.8 112.8 122.6
1999 93.9 84.2 80.5 82.2 100.8 76.5 107.0 109.1 90.1 108.4 109.1 126.0 108.5 107.7 109.1 122.7
2000 110.5 75.6 88.1 82.2 81.9 91.2 93.7 97.0 89.0 85.3 91.6 85.2 94.7 87.5 107.9 87.1
2001 149.2 133.7 187.2 195.5 316.9 177.4 307.7 246.1 166.7 179.3 137.6 167.9 138.5 112.5 134.4 96.6
2002 97.7 96.7 96.5 83.4 101.9 75.7 90.8 74.7 74.6 61.7 65.5 141.3 69.9 60.3 72.8 73.1
2003 88.4 80.4 97.9 92.9 144.2 122.6 170.1 165.4 115.8 150.3 144.0 113.8 143.0 135.2 108.8 81.3
2004 93.8 71.0 71.0 100.0 91.2 63.0 87.3 84.4 67.0 72.4 69.1 94.2 90.0 83.9 85.2 65.4
2005 98.7 102.8 134.1 160.5 229.8 116.4 229.8 214.1 114.0 162.8 151.5 169.5 134.3 119.3 83.5 97.6
2006 139.0 126.9 114.8 110.4 110.7 75.5 109.5 101.9 79.2 105.6 105.8 90.9 137.4 143.9 147.4 96.9
2007 76.5 88.6 100.8 66.2 73.7 110.6 89.8 96.1 106.2 93.4 97.9 62.5 88.2 90.7 89.2 83.2
2008 80.9 73.5 71.3 63.6 91.8 80.5 96.4 87.5 88.3 88.8 89.9 66.0 92.4 92.3 90.1 81.8
2009 63.4 75.1 105.1 59.5 116.6 60.4 136.2 114.0 56.0 104.2 82.0 38.6 116.7 94.5 79.2 59.0
2010 42.8 51.3 59.8 61.2 97.1 62.7 90.7 65.8 62.6 66.5 55.0 87.5 80.3 67.3 68.3 79.6

AAiT - 169 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Con't
Grid No. 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
Longitude 36.125 36.375 36.375 36.375 36.375 36.375 36.375 36.375 36.375 36.625 36.625 36.625 36.625 36.625 36.625 36.875
Latitude 7.625 12.875 11.375 10.875 9.375 9.125 8.875 8.625 8.375 9.875 9.125 8.875 8.625 8.125 7.875 11.375
1983 91.2 68.2 105.3 93.4 130.2 117.0 104.1 129.5 126.3 142.6 117.1 108.4 132.0 94.9 104.1 130.3
1984 75.2 94.8 85.3 82.6 88.0 100.1 112.3 124.5 116.0 88.1 92.3 106.2 137.8 99.4 90.0 96.6
1985 81.5 72.5 148.1 92.8 113.8 121.9 134.8 180.1 188.0 83.5 129.4 155.4 200.0 172.1 138.6 160.7
1986 93.9 114.7 150.8 114.2 103.1 84.3 95.6 133.9 135.8 90.2 82.4 117.8 154.2 112.2 97.0 158.9
1987 126.1 74.2 98.9 112.6 231.0 227.9 224.9 221.9 204.6 174.7 220.9 218.1 215.4 171.5 143.1 76.7
1988 104.4 107.8 88.6 78.0 148.7 137.7 126.6 115.5 108.9 107.6 148.9 133.3 117.7 104.4 114.7 111.9
1989 90.2 91.0 148.1 153.0 132.9 131.4 130.0 128.6 124.1 105.9 144.0 138.1 132.2 118.7 111.7 152.2
1990 77.4 135.2 131.0 118.4 148.7 116.9 96.1 114.2 112.0 194.8 128.1 97.9 109.8 79.6 78.9 106.8
1991 65.1 108.7 187.8 113.5 143.5 116.4 138.7 160.9 152.6 121.6 136.6 160.4 184.1 122.5 99.8 128.5
1992 148.0 82.4 97.6 96.4 132.4 118.4 106.8 108.4 96.7 152.0 122.6 106.3 92.3 103.6 146.6 72.4
1993 108.7 111.6 139.2 101.7 164.6 159.6 154.5 149.4 135.6 122.9 180.1 174.8 169.5 128.4 102.8 115.9
1994 69.8 73.9 104.8 114.1 123.5 121.5 123.4 139.5 137.2 158.4 117.2 124.3 148.6 114.5 83.6 113.5
1995 63.0 131.1 112.0 94.0 164.4 155.4 146.4 137.4 116.3 114.3 162.5 152.5 142.4 85.9 58.6 125.0
1996 95.1 80.3 86.1 88.1 106.1 110.5 118.9 132.3 125.3 102.2 111.5 122.2 132.9 113.3 121.7 86.8
1997 177.6 128.7 139.5 145.4 156.2 146.3 136.5 126.6 107.3 123.0 132.5 123.9 115.4 82.2 121.7 99.4
1998 132.3 205.2 136.6 110.6 113.7 114.5 115.3 118.7 121.1 93.7 100.3 105.8 119.3 138.1 154.3 154.5
1999 129.5 146.3 234.0 160.2 109.2 107.0 104.8 102.6 110.6 110.0 105.9 102.3 101.0 131.1 153.8 204.4
2000 121.9 177.3 167.7 135.0 107.3 95.6 109.1 122.6 125.0 89.2 99.0 113.9 128.8 124.2 121.6 256.1
2001 122.5 101.5 119.6 171.4 193.9 146.6 123.8 173.4 179.3 193.2 153.4 122.2 171.1 141.6 105.7 129.6
2002 95.7 97.0 175.8 141.2 96.3 71.3 65.2 76.1 74.8 159.2 78.8 73.0 80.2 80.6 80.1 153.0
2003 76.6 185.7 112.7 108.0 132.8 122.8 112.9 102.9 94.1 134.4 138.7 124.3 109.9 77.8 96.6 98.2
2004 73.2 104.5 191.7 125.6 104.4 104.8 115.8 126.8 116.0 107.9 117.2 128.8 140.4 91.4 87.8 184.0
2005 115.9 95.0 147.5 154.0 168.6 152.3 136.1 119.8 100.2 111.5 157.0 142.8 128.5 99.7 116.8 156.3
2006 85.7 126.1 116.3 90.3 177.2 186.1 195.0 203.9 192.0 145.7 209.1 217.9 226.6 175.1 137.9 116.6
2007 91.5 86.6 94.8 70.8 87.4 88.0 88.6 89.3 84.4 72.6 78.9 78.8 78.6 68.4 68.8 87.7
2008 80.7 63.4 100.6 86.1 97.2 95.9 94.6 96.3 91.8 77.8 93.3 92.5 92.1 84.3 79.6 88.0
2009 60.1 84.4 61.5 45.9 107.0 84.7 86.0 111.9 109.8 82.1 82.3 87.8 114.7 80.8 69.6 76.1
2010 85.3 73.3 98.2 92.0 92.8 75.9 77.4 85.7 78.9 123.2 75.2 80.5 85.9 83.8 96.7 100.0

AAiT - 170 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Con't
Grid No. 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Longitude 36.875 36.875 36.875 36.875 36.875 36.875 36.875 36.875 37.125 37.125 37.125 37.125 37.125 37.125 37.125 37.125
Latitude 10.875 10.625 9.125 8.625 8.375 8.125 7.875 7.625 12.625 12.375 11.375 10.625 9.875 9.625 9.125 7.875
1983 103.1 138.8 120.2 108.4 100.3 77.2 83.0 101.8 96.2 95.9 137.0 138.2 138.4 131.2 123.4 127.0
1984 84.9 79.1 101.1 145.5 141.3 102.9 83.1 77.7 95.4 95.4 104.7 81.2 98.7 114.5 116.5 76.3
1985 112.5 154.6 131.3 196.2 195.8 162.5 129.1 95.8 133.4 122.0 155.1 174.8 113.2 112.4 151.7 119.7
1986 129.3 153.9 113.2 156.5 148.1 109.8 89.3 115.7 92.2 112.0 169.7 173.8 92.7 121.9 144.9 91.8
1987 73.4 72.4 190.8 184.3 170.5 146.2 131.7 133.3 121.2 116.2 83.4 102.0 127.3 153.4 160.7 129.6
1988 73.4 75.1 141.0 97.4 90.2 98.4 107.6 116.9 103.7 107.9 138.7 100.3 109.5 153.3 133.1 100.5
1989 122.6 144.3 153.4 139.6 130.8 120.3 109.7 99.1 123.9 124.4 150.5 119.4 133.9 165.7 162.9 107.7
1990 120.6 168.9 127.5 83.8 81.1 61.4 69.3 86.0 129.5 134.6 92.3 157.7 189.9 193.7 126.8 59.6
1991 113.6 110.5 143.6 184.7 170.6 121.8 92.5 93.1 112.1 104.1 119.2 106.7 112.9 143.9 150.7 85.2
1992 120.6 149.7 107.3 86.0 86.7 90.4 120.1 149.9 96.4 104.4 77.8 155.1 139.2 127.7 92.0 101.9
1993 94.7 104.6 177.9 167.5 152.3 127.3 102.3 113.3 164.9 171.3 109.9 89.2 130.0 162.1 175.6 101.7
1994 139.8 195.7 120.1 128.7 124.2 100.4 76.6 82.2 90.9 92.1 123.5 205.0 185.8 166.3 131.9 88.0
1995 101.4 106.6 134.4 115.4 96.8 69.1 46.9 61.0 114.1 97.7 123.0 131.6 84.5 108.0 106.3 47.7
1996 87.8 98.6 96.1 111.8 107.7 106.5 105.3 115.5 109.6 105.5 83.0 124.2 100.4 121.5 97.3 106.3
1997 104.4 119.7 100.5 83.6 78.5 70.0 94.3 118.7 122.9 113.0 78.9 136.7 72.5 99.9 75.6 85.2
1998 96.0 96.0 107.3 112.2 118.6 128.9 139.2 158.6 193.0 202.0 161.2 84.0 120.3 136.0 137.7 128.0
1999 157.6 148.7 104.4 96.0 102.2 122.5 142.9 163.3 175.7 204.1 210.9 155.6 91.7 105.5 102.9 132.0
2000 140.4 135.8 97.7 126.6 129.5 120.8 118.8 130.9 198.5 194.5 306.3 146.3 104.1 93.0 96.4 115.9
2001 172.0 232.4 125.1 122.2 129.3 108.7 94.6 122.4 157.5 163.6 171.3 208.3 126.3 156.8 113.7 91.0
2002 169.0 236.6 74.0 78.5 81.3 79.6 78.0 94.2 80.9 79.5 125.6 244.0 171.7 128.9 75.5 77.7
2003 115.8 124.7 135.3 94.4 87.0 78.1 109.0 139.8 242.0 224.1 126.0 161.1 169.9 171.1 131.9 121.3
2004 125.5 96.2 116.7 134.1 121.1 86.5 85.2 101.5 188.5 192.9 160.6 89.9 108.9 116.9 116.2 82.7
2005 105.2 115.8 133.3 115.2 101.3 99.3 110.8 122.3 93.0 111.3 148.1 121.9 119.3 129.6 128.0 114.2
2006 107.4 110.4 213.1 225.0 208.4 169.4 130.3 91.3 118.5 112.0 132.0 119.3 155.8 193.6 217.1 122.8
2007 90.0 93.9 63.5 64.0 61.6 56.4 67.6 79.9 86.5 82.7 114.8 105.5 75.0 71.9 56.0 66.4
2008 75.7 69.5 84.4 87.2 86.8 84.7 82.5 80.4 83.3 73.8 71.7 59.9 75.0 87.3 75.6 85.5
2009 55.4 46.3 76.1 88.8 87.1 76.7 69.0 75.1 79.3 89.2 82.2 50.5 64.8 80.1 69.9 73.4
2010 106.1 116.3 76.9 68.3 67.4 78.0 88.7 99.4 127.7 112.8 91.8 116.7 107.1 111.9 80.2 80.7

AAiT - 171 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Con't
Grid No. 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64
Longitude 37.125 37.375 37.375 37.375 37.375 37.375 37.375 37.375 37.375 37.625 37.625 37.625 37.625 37.625 37.875 37.875
Latitude 7.625 12.625 12.375 11.625 11.375 10.625 10.375 9.625 7.875 12.875 11.875 11.375 10.875 10.375 11.875 11.125
1983 125.3 99.7 99.3 146.7 143.6 137.7 152.1 128.27 177.78 64.504 100.5 128.69 101.3 134.87 75.088 85.08
1984 67.3 133.6 133.4 108.2 112.9 87.4 81.206 128.79 69.398 96.033 75.624 105.01 84.086 79.115 63.582 83.699
1985 86.5 154.5 142.9 154.3 149.4 195.1 202.04 139.77 110.21 126.59 117.43 136.96 141.21 187.05 94.025 127.43
1986 117.0 114.2 95.6 174.2 180.6 193.6 193.11 167.15 100.92 145.33 127.01 162.92 133.97 177.28 98.012 100.41
1987 130.1 144.5 137.1 94.5 112.5 140.4 126.96 151.02 127.51 119.4 71.504 120.12 144.49 142.79 62.615 121.16
1988 108.7 104.6 108.9 164.0 165.5 125.6 125.57 154.57 93.432 112.29 114.75 156.48 86.369 122.28 90.772 101.29
1989 93.6 123.3 124.7 149.7 148.8 94.4 98.988 197.36 105.71 90.078 106.41 132.58 116.43 96.128 130.01 128.63
1990 78.6 114.4 118.3 97.0 106.4 151.6 171.5 195.43 60.408 80.906 85.735 104.92 134.48 145.54 77.7 99.307
1991 90.6 102.2 95.6 122.2 119.8 102.8 95.889 137.45 92.48 81.166 82.776 110.78 87.583 86.166 75.894 92.487
1992 126.6 95.7 103.7 90.3 93.0 160.6 164.03 117.27 125.9 73.831 87.467 96.43 124.61 144.63 80.907 96.945
1993 108.3 165.4 170.9 100.1 108.4 93.6 97.426 159.91 101.11 113.19 102.62 94.127 85.51 100.97 97.06 119.15
1994 98.6 96.2 96.3 140.3 133.4 214.3 235.82 181.21 100.43 88.084 109.81 121.07 139.42 214.15 81.106 81.052
1995 57.5 116.3 106.8 108.6 121.0 156.5 152.42 90.112 48.549 111.21 93.983 122.33 122.23 154.39 114.97 139.79
1996 113.0 117.5 113.0 77.5 79.8 149.9 149.77 123.69 112.67 102.72 74.409 81.376 102.62 147.74 63.521 81.951
1997 104.7 146.4 133.2 84.9 105.1 153.6 142.93 110.99 76.038 144.9 76.316 107.85 132.88 134.02 79.15 97.569
1998 149.6 222.1 227.7 188.2 168.0 106.5 111.92 172.93 116.75 189.87 193.25 203.99 169.87 128.99 211.44 257.14
1999 149.9 218.4 248.2 239.7 217.4 162.4 142.1 117.62 121.07 149.87 224 201.95 148.94 128.65 161.71 137.24
2000 126.4 213.1 208.4 350.4 356.4 166.3 164.61 98.173 113.02 164.7 240.87 333.8 180.9 155.28 174.52 183.82
2001 111.8 164.7 172.6 207.9 213.0 184.1 187.71 154.21 87.343 123.77 165.85 227.13 133.33 153.28 164.4 173.67
2002 88.0 87.3 83.5 147.6 149.2 251.4 265.44 134.3 77.305 84.937 110.23 156.09 163.09 240.73 89.777 114.62
2003 151.3 251.9 234.9 128.2 153.8 197.5 201.36 180.76 133.67 209.56 116.58 152.73 184.45 201.9 129.14 138.34
2004 97.4 197.0 199.0 130.8 137.2 86.6 100.23 138.03 80.16 138.7 101.21 119.05 84.211 88.565 83.465 79.742
2005 124.9 116.8 133.3 156.1 139.9 137.9 133.89 146.38 117.66 94.22 133.74 118.83 127.68 130.59 124.58 171.41
2006 82.0 165.0 156.8 178.9 181.0 130.2 133.28 200.71 115.19 151.12 139.62 179.79 113.91 126.84 126.83 93.242
2007 80.6 82.3 78.7 149.4 149.8 117.0 114.75 84.143 65.238 77.276 126.28 155.51 100.34 106.78 120.27 105.14
2008 85.8 101.0 88.8 72.2 79.7 72.8 64.558 92.238 88.358 115.92 58.013 81.097 77.141 66.865 53.387 67.325
2009 69.2 87.3 95.4 93.9 88.3 56.1 48.535 100.5 77.734 94.504 88.293 84.588 65.054 45.308 69.902 63.426
2010 89.1 144.9 127.8 101.0 105.3 117.1 105.62 109.03 72.717 132.26 83.385 105.54 103.31 98.301 78.408 87.292

AAiT - 172 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Con't
Grid No. 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80
Longitude 37.875 37.875 38.125 38.125 38.125 38.125 38.125 38.125 38.375 38.375 38.375 38.375 38.375 38.625 38.625 38.625
Latitude 9.625 8.875 10.875 10.625 10.375 10.125 9.375 9.125 11.875 11.625 10.875 9.875 8.875 10.875 10.625 9.875
1983 92.931 139.12 86.4 82.852 72.968 68.27 88.561 104.48 159.35 173.76 107.96 82.119 106.82 112.54 110.85 80.85
1984 88.25 104.39 93.23 96.151 88.005 69.877 86.898 81.069 76.114 78.972 101.39 89.551 86.76 95.459 98.292 90.245
1985 102.07 121.15 122.86 129.95 118.54 88.622 104.46 96.915 65.923 83.523 113.68 76.278 91.674 101.1 124.17 77.53
1986 122.06 111.48 123 101.76 84.954 80.3 105.66 99.701 157.18 215.67 166.87 94.333 124.35 173.73 145.46 106.48
1987 96.163 116.05 127.38 144.76 136.12 101.47 107.95 115.7 80.515 110.33 118.83 75.26 130.86 100.52 118.93 74.097
1988 116.89 89.742 112.9 117.04 116.53 111.4 92.446 87.376 116.35 162.9 147 105.85 84.987 156.64 165.98 104.45
1989 163.45 142.46 130.51 128.25 115.9 93.438 137.72 129.84 224.55 267.86 137.53 104.23 109.09 125.12 127.66 93.732
1990 122.74 95.528 94.329 106.39 100.31 76.1 108.83 105.13 61.629 80.533 74.25 85.198 107.31 72.465 72.307 76.65
1991 94.2 122.53 83.395 70.606 57.577 53.712 79.434 87.269 94.452 112.72 85.236 58.316 130.23 80.488 66.356 63.964
1992 109.14 148.9 111.97 116.34 107.48 85.343 149.35 153.11 106.58 130.07 129.86 114.68 164.85 136.98 152.83 109.93
1993 107.57 119.55 137.9 115.83 94.086 78.535 96.578 91.368 187.98 230.53 166.75 84.456 97.494 180.94 144.6 93.755
1994 164.82 112.34 141.4 184.83 185.86 144.47 164.1 151.16 83.989 113.32 184.83 142.97 177.32 203.25 284.55 152.29
1995 114.95 87.443 185.93 202.45 187.1 139.86 148.22 133.01 156.96 154.14 229.89 159.5 148.16 263.95 295.89 164.85
1996 98.404 98.729 94.512 97.568 88.56 107.06 139.04 102.28 88.509 97.587 105.27 149.7 105.08 103.07 106.97 144.58
1997 80.078 68.079 137.59 143.93 130.27 96.619 79.946 60.155 94.867 132.82 173.69 76.073 71.789 168.2 177.1 82.372
1998 157.5 137.85 310.38 293.39 250.46 181.58 142.25 129.57 288.41 378.14 380.62 135.15 95.882 375.61 358 132.02
1999 143.19 109.69 133.33 133.68 120.41 104.8 157.5 138.14 120.21 160.59 172.32 145.66 127.86 175.47 172.89 153.05
2000 80.633 90.662 172.77 172.66 157.64 127.72 88.207 84.499 208.42 281.85 241.88 120.12 94.257 261.71 267.02 135.8
2001 104.49 67.13 183.38 181 157.36 112.47 96.524 98.379 165.17 224.05 248.1 91.871 140.33 274.2 283.94 108.3
2002 118.78 59.102 115.58 123.46 125.87 119.46 93.068 72.345 79.717 108.96 129.88 97.535 70.383 127.33 157.93 105.71
2003 120.68 103.31 123.35 138.6 136.39 116.73 100.04 99.068 154.25 180.49 114.22 86.026 133.81 107.81 105.85 90.816
2004 106.44 133.25 96.265 98.889 90.053 83.724 179.17 175.85 68.189 87.227 114.73 162.73 211.81 110.41 118.98 181.75
2005 103.07 96.292 210.71 193.96 163.71 119.93 102.6 93.583 242.33 301.02 252.22 87.958 119.85 256.45 215.21 111.11
2006 130.5 138.78 105.66 87.954 79.426 80.495 131.16 130.33 151.51 180.29 139.22 118.63 179.24 159.72 139.72 133.69
2007 72.818 58.2 79.17 77.685 71.148 70.461 70.266 62.869 122.25 104.8 73.793 73.239 61.676 69.121 71.526 70.689
2008 64.2 78.369 70.185 72.405 64.324 46.044 64.805 73.693 73.702 60.588 78.349 53.19 90.621 72.243 79.694 53.216
2009 70.416 79.425 46.576 51.839 57.629 59.642 61.11 66.372 81.955 80.685 51.182 65.742 79.401 55.037 68.291 64.959
2010 92.059 74.318 86.336 90.994 81.654 68.378 89.244 74.076 100.71 102.44 93.891 66.701 84.948 85.458 92.534 63.921

AAiT - 173 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Con't
Grid No. 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Longitude 38.625 38.875 38.875 38.875 39.125 39.125 39.125 39.375 39.625 39.625 39.625 39.625 39.625 39.625 39.625 39.875 40.125
Latitude 9.375 10.875 10.625 9.875 12.125 11.625 10.125 9.625 11.875 11.625 11.375 11.125 10.375 9.625 9.125 8.875 11.125
1983 121.98 112.58 112.49 61.61 170.34 208.82 87.423 64.343 170.83 189.38 178.39 137.85 114.89 60.569 60.002 54.266 59.084
1984 120.46 75.433 73.483 81.6 65.397 84.245 49.928 84.092 61.015 73.237 72.749 65.233 75.928 76.477 60.79 55.981 28.327
1985 94.739 89.122 124.78 78.859 70.564 101.04 105.43 71.578 80.767 113.07 120.01 101.57 115.41 68.301 61.676 53.101 83.169
1986 164.26 143.6 131.21 107.13 111.11 140.18 92.356 151.81 150.48 176.9 168.32 124.73 110.74 134.27 136.46 93.156 55.026
1987 119.34 87.584 85.166 62.389 80.38 82.668 95.895 66.712 87.345 94.461 95.98 82.261 153.17 70.109 69.933 80.931 61.042
1988 109.37 145.13 153.98 102.07 174.81 129.4 119.6 130.73 139.06 121.56 123.25 115.67 131.5 131.89 99.414 64.033 72.793
1989 93.04 106.3 96.618 77.912 192.3 244.87 80.82 125.71 179.02 188.76 169.62 121.61 122.63 125.42 115.3 80.542 58.368
1990 100.7 75.86 72.771 76.677 70.547 77.923 71.76 85.237 57.102 79.937 88.119 81.631 71.235 76.464 76.272 62.435 86.616
1991 87.972 69.148 72.505 63.082 80.339 108 76.51 113.79 79.814 90.078 83.307 87.33 143.86 110.6 107.1 68.446 82.901
1992 159.56 133.31 150.39 89.785 92.53 95.616 110.68 226.75 89.123 87.106 93.735 104.41 148.93 224.66 203.34 125.78 64.117
1993 131.17 180.44 151.44 93.911 162.63 219.81 114.78 119.98 157.08 172.44 175.46 166.13 165.67 111.22 93.421 67.365 71.202
1994 208.12 196.65 275.3 149.24 75.6 105.39 209.35 168.38 94.543 106.93 102.54 94.573 226.53 186.57 174.61 156.57 104.51
1995 212.6 288.07 307.82 165.76 233.33 281.3 246.24 181.4 275.22 310.62 323.62 314.23 274.77 179.01 133.55 98.127 134.67
1996 199.11 113.06 128.44 113.21 78.117 104.57 119.4 139.18 78.135 91.423 94.661 117.85 203.64 129.36 120.32 83.44 56.041
1997 108.49 121.13 127.88 86.858 77.336 116.55 107.74 119.75 109.54 132.18 128.44 98.342 123.74 116.63 95.274 81.825 65.075
1998 144.97 295.34 276.35 122.02 163.47 245.5 192.43 187.41 169.4 233.86 286.71 327.93 377.13 188.11 189.57 162.61 191.02
1999 167.14 137.18 137.19 151.89 131.11 98.404 145 150.29 93.04 93.055 107.17 108.86 133.87 130.9 107.03 78.16 108.11
2000 95.997 232.23 248.54 144.83 191.43 277.49 189.8 135.74 320.42 389.73 386.79 311.6 186.26 126.58 99.354 75.149 182.89
2001 140.68 261.69 294.97 116.85 140.24 180.14 209.01 208.02 192.63 248.87 242.35 173.11 283.19 205.6 144.1 117.96 84.039
2002 78.265 126.37 134.41 103.61 98.815 157.3 114.02 88.267 141.14 172.65 169.71 132.31 104.89 81.284 54.044 39.317 70.215
2003 125.07 94.759 114.72 86.126 79.446 115.15 99.656 123.39 102.29 143.2 147.43 114.98 113.83 116.26 149.47 122.33 72.342
2004 260.88 83.336 90.098 179.63 64.621 135.42 121.44 229.45 139.03 190.8 190.43 137.93 85.866 200.8 150.22 74.774 70.569
2005 117.81 223.41 221.3 137.24 190.63 294.79 202.95 151.15 197.7 236.88 230.29 186.04 246.49 147.68 153.22 126.95 96.224
2006 161.66 167.15 155.99 145.55 130.54 161.68 135.3 210.6 118.46 165.85 173.59 156.34 158 218.03 202.91 165.6 91.444
2007 67.283 72.141 60.359 64.204 135.91 119.41 63.977 74.428 113.96 114.9 106.78 89.603 62.049 74.331 84.923 76.516 69.996
2008 71.925 53.694 60.439 52.134 107.49 94.961 54.613 66.649 98.177 99.889 92.192 75.084 72.802 67.5 59.653 54.313 60.091
2009 56.283 53.82 65.613 62.675 132.52 62.629 59.721 73.035 88.666 75.336 80.274 68.623 63.266 66.414 45.105 36.431 45.957
2010 82.017 76.663 96.684 66.419 162.57 119.46 99.706 83.238 142.95 174.04 172.47 135.25 143.36 93.336 84.516 76.455 100.43

AAiT - 174 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

APPENDIX C: Data Test Results for One Day Durations of in Situ Data.
Testing of independency

Station Statistic Remark Station Statistic Remark Station Statistic Remark

Critical Test Critical Test Critical Test
Statistics Statistics Statistics
1 0.77 1.96 Independent 36 0.34 1.96 Independent 71 0.90 1.96 Independent
2 1.20 1.96 Independent 37 0.47 1.96 Independent 72 0.07 1.96 Independent
3 1.24 1.96 Independent 38 0.78 1.96 Independent 73 2.02 1.96 dependent
4 0.04 1.96 Independent 39 1.26 1.96 Independent 74 1.02 1.96 Independent
5 1.08 1.96 Independent 40 0.14 1.96 Independent 75 1.26 1.96 Independent
6 0.00 1.96 Independent 41 3.49 1.96 dependent 76 0.27 1.96 Independent
7 1.55 1.96 Independent 42 0.26 1.96 Independent 77 0.93 1.96 Independent
8 1.80 1.96 Independent 43 0.48 1.96 Independent 78 2.99 1.96 dependent
9 0.64 1.96 Independent 44 0.50 1.96 Independent 79 0.27 1.96 Independent
10 1.16 1.96 Independent 45 2.64 1.96 dependent 80 0.68 1.96 Independent
11 0.38 1.96 Independent 46 2.04 1.96 dependent 81 0.55 1.96 Independent
12 0.73 1.96 Independent 47 0.59 1.96 Independent 82 0.08 1.96 Independent
13 1.08 1.96 Independent 48 0.82 1.96 Independent 83 0.12 1.96 Independent
14 0.22 1.96 Independent 49 0.77 1.96 Independent 84 0.74 1.96 Independent
15 1.33 1.96 Independent 50 3.00 1.96 dependent 85 0.78 1.96 Independent
16 0.94 1.96 Independent 51 0.19 1.96 Independent 86 0.46 1.96 Independent
17 0.06 1.96 Independent 52 1.05 1.96 Independent 87 1.00 1.96 Independent
18 1.81 1.96 Independent 53 1.40 1.96 Independent 88 1.20 1.96 Independent
19 1.89 1.96 Independent 54 0.70 1.96 Independent 89 0.66 1.96 Independent
20 0.30 1.96 Independent 55 1.29 1.96 Independent 90 1.35 1.96 Independent
21 2.00 1.96 dependent 56 0.47 1.96 Independent 91 0.16 1.96 Independent
22 1.04 1.96 Independent 57 0.75 1.96 Independent 92 0.93 1.96 Independent
23 0.29 1.96 Independent 58 0.20 1.96 Independent 93 1.32 1.96 Independent
24 1.72 1.96 Independent 59 0.96 1.96 Independent 94 0.58 1.96 Independent
25 0.63 1.96 Independent 60 0.19 1.96 Independent 95 0.29 1.96 Independent
26 0.39 1.96 Independent 61 1.77 1.96 Independent 96 0.65 1.96 Independent
27 1.17 1.96 Independent 62 0.65 1.96 Independent 97 0.43 1.96 Independent
28 0.43 1.96 Independent 63 0.83 1.96 Independent 98 1.84 1.96 Independent
29 0.29 1.96 Independent 64 2.80 1.96 dependent 99 1.32 1.96 Independent
30 0.06 1.96 Independent 65 0.25 1.96 Independent 100 1.14 1.96 Independent
31 0.82 1.96 Independent 66 0.07 1.96 Independent 101 0.73 1.96 Independent
32 0.62 1.96 Independent 67 1.54 1.96 Independent 102 0.30 1.96 Independent
33 3.50 1.96 dependent 68 1.80 1.96 Independent 103 1.10 1.96 Independent
34 1.19 1.96 Independent 69 0.18 1.96 Independent 104 1.51 1.96 Independent
35 0.39 1.96 Independent 70 0.78 1.96 Independent

AAiT - 175 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Testing of Homogeneity
Critical Critical Critical
Station Statistic Remark Station Statistic Remark Station Statistic Remark
Test Test Test
Statistics Statistics Statistics
1 0.1451573 1.96 Homogeneous 36 1.2421428 1.96 Homogeneous 71 0.7600782 1.96 Homogeneous
2 1.2471165 1.96 Homogeneous 37 0.1560756 1.96 Homogeneous 72 1.5892544 1.96 Homogeneous
3 0.1612287 1.96 Homogeneous 38 0.2817754 1.96 Homogeneous 73 1.6329932 1.96 Homogeneous
4 1.5798566 1.96 Homogeneous 39 0.94447 1.96 Homogeneous 74 0.529824 1.96 Homogeneous
5 0.0962841 1.96 Homogeneous 40 1.75242 1.96 Homogeneous 75 0.7311262 1.96 Homogeneous
6 1.6503615 1.96 Homogeneous 41 0.0990842 1.96 Homogeneous 76 1.0550088 1.96 Homogeneous
7 0.5674364 1.96 Homogeneous 42 0.2646889 1.96 Homogeneous 77 0.0869048 1.96 Homogeneous
8 0.5714286 1.96 Homogeneous 43 0.7146714 1.96 Homogeneous 78 0.3024853 1.96 Homogeneous
9 0.2184871 1.96 Homogeneous 44 1.6547929 1.96 Homogeneous 79 0.6531973 1.96 Homogeneous
10 0.4354718 1.96 Homogeneous 45 0.8714073 1.96 Homogeneous 80 0.2910262 1.96 Homogeneous
11 0.7611204 1.96 Homogeneous 46 1.4290302 1.96 Homogeneous 81 1.529291 1.96 Homogeneous
12 1.4696938 1.96 Homogeneous 47 0.4938839 1.96 Homogeneous 82 0.4940149 1.96 Homogeneous
13 0.1632099 1.96 Homogeneous 48 1.5772391 1.96 Homogeneous 83 0.202822 1.96 Homogeneous
14 0.1028689 1.96 Homogeneous 49 1.0133091 1.96 Homogeneous 84 1.0600677 1.96 Homogeneous
15 1.6484512 1.96 Homogeneous 50 1.8692559 1.96 Homogeneous 85 1.7992391 1.96 Homogeneous
16 0.3606582 1.96 Homogeneous 51 0.3582862 1.96 Homogeneous 86 0.5243691 1.96 Homogeneous
17 0.0544033 1.96 Homogeneous 52 0.7765446 1.96 Homogeneous 87 1.5688734 1.96 Homogeneous
18 1.7500071 1.96 Homogeneous 53 1.6970452 1.96 Homogeneous 88 1.8656464 1.96 Homogeneous
19 0.9615259 1.96 Homogeneous 54 1.2068892 1.96 Homogeneous 89 1.5462544 1.96 Homogeneous
20 1.7852677 1.96 Homogeneous 55 0.6527097 1.96 Homogeneous 90 1.0682486 1.96 Homogeneous
21 0.5794434 1.96 Homogeneous 56 1.7364863 1.96 Homogeneous 91 0.7311262 1.96 Homogeneous
22 0.4382208 1.96 Homogeneous 57 0.1455785 1.96 Homogeneous 92 0.7856812 1.96 Homogeneous
23 0.7838492 1.96 Homogeneous 58 0.1230915 1.96 Homogeneous 93 0.9773756 1.96 Homogeneous
24 1.9592234 1.96 Homogeneous 59 0.1512285 1.96 Homogeneous 94 0.7616461 1.96 Homogeneous
25 1.0566113 1.96 Homogeneous 60 1.4937678 1.96 Homogeneous 95 0.811899 1.96 Homogeneous
26 1.1879575 1.96 Homogeneous 61 0.9613434 1.96 Homogeneous 96 0.5935257 1.96 Homogeneous
27 1.2658197 1.96 Homogeneous 62 0.6236276 1.96 Homogeneous 97 0.3774089 1.96 Homogeneous
28 1.4088539 1.96 Homogeneous 63 1.0028257 1.96 Homogeneous 98 1.864478 1.96 Homogeneous
29 0.7821434 1.96 Homogeneous 64 0.4806717 1.96 Homogeneous 99 0.4100507 1.96 Homogeneous
30 0.8214194 1.96 Homogeneous 65 1.174827 1.96 Homogeneous 100 1.6177444 1.96 Homogeneous
31 0.2470224 1.96 Homogeneous 66 1.6547929 1.96 Homogeneous 101 0.5786376 1.96 Homogeneous
32 1.0762382 1.96 Homogeneous 67 0.0832337 1.96 Homogeneous 102 1.5497297 1.96 Homogeneous
33 1.3229343 1.96 Homogeneous 68 1.6414267 1.96 Homogeneous 103 1.8583493 1.96 Homogeneous
34 1.1652723 1.96 Homogeneous 69 0.4230571 1.96 Homogeneous 104 0.0792699 1.96 Homogeneous
35 0.326742 1.96 Homogeneous 70 0.4867497 1.96 Homogeneous

AAiT - 176 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

APPENDIX D: Mathematical Expressions for Statistical Distributions

of Annual Maximum Series
Distribution Distribution function Variate and parameter
name F(x) ranges
Normal distribution 1 
1
( x )2
F(x) = e   x  
2
2
(N)
 2
 and  are parameters
Two parameter
Lognormal 1  1  log x  b 2  0< x
F(x) = exp   
distribution (LN2) 2 ax  2  a  
Three parameter
Lognormal 1  1  log( x  m)  b 2  m<x
F(x) = exp   
distribution (LN3) 2 a( x  m)  2  a  
Exponential m<x
distribution (EXP) 1  x m
F(x) = exp    (i.e. P-III with b = 1)
a  a 
Two parameter 0  x if a > 0
Gamma ( x ) b 1 x  0 if a < 0
a x
F(x) = exp(  ) (i.e. P-III with m = 0)
distribution(Gam2) / a / (b) a
Pearson-III  x m
b 1
m  x if a > 0
  x  m if a < 0
a   x  m
distribution (P-III) F(x) =  exp  
/ a / (b)  a 

Log Pearson-III  z c

b 1
cz
  ec  x   a>0
distribution (LP-III)  a   z  c
F(x) = exp     z  c
x / a / (b)  a 
If x P-III and z = log x 0  x  ec a<0
Generalized  >0
  1

Extreme Value x  u  u +  x   if k < 0
k
F(x) = exp  1  k  


   k
distribution (GEV)  
 

 < x ≤ u+  if k >0
k
Extreme value   x  
Type I 

 x u 
  
  >0
  
F(x) = exp  e 
distribution (EV1) 
 


AAiT - 177 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Cont’d
Distribution Distribution function Variate and parameter
name F(x) ranges
Five parameters x = m+  [1-(1-F)b]-c[1-(1-F)-d Note
It is analytically defined
Wake by distribution
where F = F(x) only in inverse form
(WAK 5)
Four parameters
Wake by x=


  
1  (1  F )   1  (1  F ) 


distribution(WAK 4)

  1  (1  F ) k 
Generalized Pareto x =
distribution (GPar) k
1
k
F = F(x) = 1  1  ( x   )
k

  
Log-Logistic   x  a   1c 
1 x > a, c >0, b >0
 
distribution (LLg) F(x) = 1    
  b  

Generalized logistic   1

1

  x       <0,  + ≤ x <
distribution (GLg) F(x) = 1  1      ,   0 
     
  
 >0,- < x< +
1

  x   
= 1  exp   ,   0 - < x <
    

AAiT - 178 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

APPENDIX E: Estimated Rainfall Depths for in situ and Reanalysis

Data for Different Return Periods
Station No. Estimated Rainfall Depths of in situ 1-day duration for the indicated frequency (Years)
2 10 20 50 100 200 500 1000 10000
1 69.251 93.076 100.604 109.500 115.687 121.530 128.850 134.142 150.617
2 45.947 66.033 73.708 83.643 91.088 98.505 108.291 115.687 140.243
3 56.635 91.980 107.110 127.315 142.796 158.464 179.476 195.600 250.572
4 46.806 71.548 81.149 93.503 102.703 111.834 123.849 132.921 163.117
5 48.139 61.267 64.990 69.179 71.971 74.526 77.623 79.794 86.233
6 62.992 94.759 107.969 126.018 140.282 155.157 175.846 192.328 252.733
7 47.413 67.686 74.892 83.929 90.554 97.077 105.619 112.057 133.560
8 49.561 60.516 63.278 66.050 67.661 68.955 70.285 71.067 72.731
9 40.075 66.780 78.375 93.940 105.913 118.064 134.399 146.961 189.926
10 42.597 59.663 66.495 75.583 82.600 89.789 99.609 107.305 134.756
11 33.499 53.320 61.243 71.555 79.302 87.039 97.280 105.053 131.123
12 47.065 90.240 110.254 137.763 159.296 181.407 211.469 234.805 315.722
13 47.892 70.531 79.182 90.379 98.770 107.130 118.159 126.495 154.172
14 62.964 85.753 95.136 107.875 117.880 128.257 142.601 153.957 195.092
15 73.502 103.586 115.545 131.419 143.613 156.023 172.803 185.800 230.976
16 59.902 84.468 92.497 102.126 108.904 115.365 123.532 129.486 148.264
17 62.984 94.493 108.138 127.277 142.796 159.342 182.951 202.243 276.461
18 56.279 77.923 86.193 96.898 104.919 112.912 123.456 131.426 157.885
19 51.122 72.761 81.030 91.732 99.752 107.743 118.285 126.253 152.707
20 75.486 99.057 106.890 116.349 123.047 129.458 137.598 143.555 162.455
21 69.600 95.217 102.481 110.655 116.103 121.089 127.130 131.368 143.931
22 55.385 103.607 126.484 158.184 183.146 208.881 244.000 271.347 366.603
23 52.253 68.963 74.215 80.407 84.705 88.758 93.828 97.488 108.859
24 61.445 80.608 88.434 99.003 107.261 115.788 127.516 136.753 169.892
25 78.811 102.093 111.494 124.099 133.878 143.914 157.619 168.338 206.286
26 57.425 108.971 138.996 183.556 220.384 259.574 314.649 358.579 516.964
27 48.040 73.217 83.248 96.286 106.073 115.839 128.758 138.558 171.399
28 48.965 63.714 69.349 76.644 82.110 87.557 94.742 100.173 118.204
29 52.253 68.963 74.215 80.407 84.705 88.758 93.828 97.488 108.859
30 56.3216 70.9951 75.1564 79.8384 82.9592 85.8149 89.2754 91.7026 98.8990
31 57.882 72.016 76.682 82.195 85.968 89.448 93.646 96.547 104.724
32 59.665 111.524 130.611 154.660 172.278 189.563 212.051 228.866 284.010
33 39.650 65.595 77.414 93.557 106.136 119.012 136.468 149.986 196.692
34 52.216 70.710 78.468 89.127 97.597 106.472 118.883 128.824 165.636
35 49.135 61.159 65.168 69.933 73.213 76.254 79.944 82.509 89.817
36 41.295 65.237 81.884 107.982 130.355 154.721 189.688 218.049 322.732
37 63.958 87.568 97.706 111.849 123.257 135.363 152.545 166.512 219.703
38 52.049 71.893 81.767 96.940 110.391 125.873 150.027 171.582 270.018
39 67.608 96.490 105.794 116.883 124.649 132.023 141.309 148.055 169.214
40 58.759 77.313 83.106 89.915 94.629 99.067 104.607 108.600 120.970
41 67.039 93.231 104.185 119.206 131.120 143.583 160.979 174.886 226.202
42 66.111 124.080 152.471 192.249 223.824 256.549 301.433 336.529 459.511
43 49.264 72.560 83.397 98.310 109.994 121.999 138.330 151.014 195.024
44 77.316 123.849 142.736 167.460 186.120 204.810 229.626 248.509 312.084
45 45.297 75.067 86.847 102.117 113.556 124.955 140.014 151.424 189.592
46 52.146 61.887 65.421 69.848 73.060 76.173 80.151 83.063 92.175
47 55.394 79.099 88.157 99.882 108.667 117.421 128.970 137.698 166.678
48 61.177 83.289 90.952 100.373 107.141 113.687 122.087 128.291 148.262
49 55.508 83.328 93.965 107.571 117.658 127.637 140.728 150.586 183.264

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
Con'td
50 77.533 103.839 111.430 119.689 124.895 129.372 134.357 137.532 145.284
51 58.252 81.551 91.562 105.532 116.805 128.771 145.763 159.579 212.235
52 46.653 60.723 65.186 70.329 73.763 76.865 80.518 82.981 89.629
53 50.336 62.662 66.158 70.091 72.713 75.112 78.019 80.058 86.103
54 52.050 66.182 71.006 76.939 81.214 85.368 90.730 94.720 107.758
55 36.053 41.481 43.642 46.451 48.559 50.663 53.445 55.556 62.628
56 47.962 69.202 79.272 93.221 104.204 115.526 130.974 143.002 184.894
57 70.341 90.817 96.624 103.157 107.512 111.497 116.326 119.713 129.755
58 66.673 96.896 109.185 125.735 138.630 151.915 170.134 184.446 235.526
59 58.927 80.277 90.113 104.478 116.596 129.961 149.799 166.655 236.578
60 51.454 68.216 73.426 79.539 83.763 87.736 92.688 96.253 107.279
61 51.959 73.659 81.414 91.068 98.075 104.903 113.727 120.286 141.609
62 46.417 64.413 71.290 80.191 86.860 93.506 102.274 108.900 130.900
63 55.657 84.825 96.468 111.938 123.866 136.077 152.738 165.786 212.251
64 54.815 64.471 68.169 72.962 76.558 80.146 84.886 88.474 100.415
65 92.841 130.513 145.408 165.112 180.198 195.508 216.140 232.067 287.085
66 41.031 53.531 57.385 61.889 64.993 67.905 71.526 74.128 82.146
67 51.804 67.358 72.461 78.591 82.912 87.034 92.251 96.058 108.079
68 59.733 95.307 113.292 138.767 159.147 180.378 209.638 232.608 313.560
69 58.861 79.603 87.529 97.788 105.475 113.135 123.240 130.877 156.235
70 72.034 95.157 105.216 119.367 130.875 143.173 160.774 175.197 230.988
71 58.254 82.391 90.740 100.996 108.359 115.478 124.608 131.349 153.035
72 60.832 82.950 90.951 100.961 108.255 115.381 124.618 131.501 153.957
73 59.653 80.329 88.264 98.564 106.303 114.032 124.256 132.004 157.860
74 45.974 58.662 62.540 67.057 70.159 73.062 76.664 79.246 87.174
75 33.046 38.645 40.392 42.385 43.702 44.882 46.257 47.175 49.609
76 68.074 120.801 143.759 174.607 198.354 222.466 254.898 279.850 365.240
77 64.975 92.015 101.683 113.723 122.461 130.978 141.986 150.170 176.776
78 36.865 55.238 61.858 70.127 76.144 82.019 89.624 95.288 113.743
79 57.251 76.514 83.874 93.401 100.541 107.654 117.038 124.131 147.680
80 70.649 95.490 104.937 117.129 126.239 135.292 147.202 156.177 185.816
81 48.234 66.914 74.052 83.291 90.214 97.112 106.213 113.091 135.927
82 61.959 87.442 97.576 111.017 121.364 131.943 146.359 157.633 197.704
83 51.169 83.196 97.921 118.099 133.861 150.022 171.964 188.978 247.874
84 48.664 53.925 55.962 58.621 60.631 62.647 65.328 67.372 74.260
85 71.544 105.495 117.513 132.418 143.201 153.685 167.204 177.234 209.742
86 63.052 78.138 82.416 87.230 90.438 93.374 96.932 99.428 106.826
87 61.374 85.888 95.254 107.379 116.464 125.516 137.459 146.485 176.453
88 74.216 122.226 140.802 164.675 182.438 200.056 223.225 240.710 298.860
89 61.761 82.687 90.459 100.342 107.618 114.758 124.015 130.890 152.989
90 50.956 66.559 71.401 77.087 81.023 84.730 89.360 92.702 103.083
91 34.713 57.169 65.858 77.024 85.333 93.574 104.411 112.589 139.788
92 52.071 67.035 71.790 77.438 81.386 85.134 89.853 93.285 104.078
93 62.771 88.487 98.511 111.652 121.624 131.666 145.079 155.343 190.217
94 56.600 76.304 83.833 93.579 100.882 108.158 117.758 125.013 149.102
95 54.828 73.915 81.208 90.648 97.723 104.771 114.070 121.098 144.432
96 52.099 69.372 75.062 81.775 86.364 90.590 95.683 99.198 109.080
97 73.753 86.088 89.918 94.274 97.145 99.709 102.691 104.676 109.910
98 86.056 119.887 132.426 148.346 160.051 171.525 186.381 197.399 232.726
99 57.493 97.769 116.570 142.474 162.787 183.671 212.096 234.183 310.872
100 63.704 88.313 96.706 106.954 114.276 121.331 130.347 136.984 158.231
101 40.151 64.850 75.731 90.413 101.751 113.288 128.838 140.822 181.939
102 44.837 82.976 99.546 121.794 138.910 156.282 179.640 197.604 259.053
103 46.018 62.133 67.972 75.282 80.611 85.820 92.574 97.609 114.043
104 49.038 82.438 96.933 116.387 131.350 146.534 166.945 182.641 236.317

AAiT - 180 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Station
No. Estimated Rainfall Depths of in situ 2-day duration for the indicated frequency (Years)
2 10 20 50 100 200 500 1000 10000
1 108.567 138.709 147.076 155.966 161.440 166.054 171.074 174.199 181.524
2 79.144 100.201 106.867 114.541 119.660 124.277 129.710 133.369 143.223
3 96.977 126.453 137.202 150.711 160.543 170.098 182.346 191.340 219.649
4 85.250 115.756 126.563 139.900 149.435 158.559 170.050 178.339 203.594
5 73.791 87.616 91.380 95.332 97.738 99.745 101.904 103.233 106.286
6 86.375 118.664 129.614 142.765 151.916 160.473 170.967 178.337 199.728
7 78.014 95.275 100.283 105.750 109.207 112.189 115.518 117.647 122.871
9 71.996 96.703 105.542 116.517 124.410 132.003 141.621 148.602 170.104
10 64.342 81.884 87.202 93.163 97.035 100.450 104.365 106.935 113.539
12 95.024 126.884 138.029 151.675 161.353 170.553 182.050 190.279 214.999
13 80.675 98.287 103.105 108.179 111.276 113.866 116.661 118.385 122.367
14 88.146 117.093 127.888 141.646 151.801 161.787 174.765 184.427 215.623
15 82.525 105.953 113.953 123.601 130.342 136.670 144.461 149.956 166.027
16 106.350 137.261 148.634 163.010 173.531 183.806 197.048 206.826 237.921
17 78.500 104.557 113.423 124.094 131.535 138.505 147.071 153.099 170.662
18 97.362 126.858 135.088 143.862 149.281 153.861 158.860 161.982 169.339
19 78.941 95.967 100.450 105.066 107.819 110.078 112.461 113.898 117.092
20 113.234 148.683 161.924 178.818 191.299 203.585 219.566 231.477 270.003
21 107.315 134.908 144.673 156.717 165.322 173.552 183.911 191.378 214.104
22 87.982 136.095 153.085 174.010 188.939 203.201 221.126 234.031 273.207
23 80.626 97.085 102.427 108.671 112.899 116.764 121.379 124.535 133.266
24 93.157 115.761 122.417 129.746 134.423 138.486 143.064 146.016 153.374
25 94.757 113.438 119.836 127.567 132.978 138.065 144.339 148.773 161.780
26 117.818 143.740 148.669 152.868 154.934 156.375 157.640 158.270 159.295
27 79.033 101.199 107.492 114.271 118.502 122.110 126.088 128.598 134.620
28 76.288 91.793 96.684 102.302 106.041 109.409 113.361 116.018 123.146
29 85.322 107.786 115.261 124.132 130.233 135.882 142.729 147.482 160.993
30 85.584 108.894 116.721 126.063 132.523 138.533 145.858 150.972 165.652
31 83.975 101.295 106.086 111.166 114.288 116.914 119.766 121.538 125.676
32 124.922 202.658 230.066 263.791 287.827 310.772 339.582 360.304 423.102
33 82.488 99.962 103.914 107.636 109.664 111.206 112.697 113.519 115.092
34 71.788 92.826 100.793 111.048 118.690 126.268 136.211 143.685 168.245
35 73.785 87.623 92.053 97.189 100.637 103.767 107.473 109.987 116.838
36 81.738 91.390 92.807 93.851 94.294 94.567 94.775 94.864 94.980
37 81.436 100.342 105.417 110.703 113.893 116.537 119.357 121.078 124.977
38 72.816 94.434 102.114 111.608 118.407 124.923 133.143 139.082 157.234
39 78.616 98.739 104.803 111.576 115.959 119.813 124.215 127.093 134.445
40 89.692 106.095 110.436 114.920 117.603 119.810 122.146 123.559 126.716
41 88.561 115.176 124.534 136.030 144.210 152.007 161.781 168.799 190.005
42 134.513 159.334 163.850 167.604 169.405 170.635 171.688 172.200 173.000
43 81.885 106.877 115.779 126.803 134.709 142.298 151.886 158.825 180.097
44 134.753 186.567 204.354 225.878 240.967 255.169 272.713 285.127 321.646
45 113.183 145.492 156.252 169.032 177.825 185.970 195.850 202.712 222.239

AAiT - 181 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Con'td
46 85.773 97.444 100.004 102.373 103.640 104.589 105.491 105.979 106.887
47 88.269 109.351 116.592 125.359 131.508 137.297 144.452 149.516 164.426
48 103.774 133.006 143.501 156.562 165.977 175.051 186.573 194.952 220.869
49 92.351 124.593 136.709 152.225 163.731 175.093 189.929 201.025 237.167
51 85.799 108.221 114.766 121.937 126.489 130.427 134.840 137.672 144.666
52 67.033 84.406 89.575 95.303 98.982 102.195 105.837 108.201 114.157
53 73.634 85.278 88.617 92.235 94.507 96.454 98.613 99.984 103.306
54 85.869 110.004 118.339 128.462 135.585 142.311 150.650 156.572 174.109
56 82.202 101.166 107.101 113.885 118.379 122.409 127.117 130.267 138.644
57 96.235 115.286 120.177 125.138 128.052 130.413 132.868 134.326 137.485
58 100.098 140.155 154.570 172.537 185.506 198.022 213.936 225.526 261.470
59 82.038 103.666 110.552 118.505 123.828 128.644 134.329 138.172 148.581
60 77.711 96.859 102.660 109.160 113.380 117.101 121.364 124.161 131.345
62 75.435 95.775 102.766 111.233 117.173 122.767 129.684 134.582 149.011
63 91.753 108.806 113.219 117.716 120.370 122.529 124.784 126.130 129.068
65 129.119 175.497 191.825 211.899 226.194 239.830 256.936 269.229 306.424
66 61.046 70.342 72.718 75.122 76.531 77.669 78.850 79.550 81.059
67 77.807 99.146 106.283 114.781 120.644 126.086 132.704 137.313 150.488
68 104.730 133.220 141.543 150.665 156.458 161.471 167.093 170.701 179.620
69 98.201 127.349 135.818 145.068 150.924 155.976 161.624 165.236 174.115
70 103.605 137.819 150.239 165.804 177.100 188.051 202.050 212.300 244.400
71 97.206 115.339 120.233 125.346 128.441 131.013 133.765 135.450 139.286
72 96.102 119.354 126.733 135.237 140.917 146.047 152.091 156.167 167.171
73 80.649 94.459 98.143 101.965 104.263 106.161 108.179 109.405 112.166
74 71.825 89.280 94.829 101.231 105.512 109.382 113.946 117.028 125.362
77 106.694 148.924 164.884 185.400 200.667 215.790 235.607 250.482 299.251
78 68.082 85.201 89.183 92.994 95.104 96.731 98.329 99.225 100.986
79 86.160 103.507 108.704 114.488 118.219 121.489 125.212 127.637 133.796
80 89.299 119.968 130.360 142.834 151.509 159.619 169.558 176.535 196.767
81 80.026 104.953 113.766 124.629 132.385 139.800 149.125 155.844 176.270
82 94.306 120.195 129.364 140.679 148.767 156.506 166.251 173.279 194.688
83 93.412 119.928 127.830 136.597 142.233 147.161 152.752 156.384 165.554
85 116.469 151.417 164.368 180.811 192.899 204.748 220.087 231.463 267.934
86 111.020 135.626 142.065 148.670 152.595 155.806 159.181 161.209 165.686
87 93.422 119.081 128.667 140.898 149.936 158.832 170.406 179.032 206.940
88 148.008 174.863 179.056 182.255 183.660 184.551 185.254 185.566 185.994
89 80.824 104.495 111.135 118.236 122.636 126.364 130.447 133.003 139.063
90 86.172 110.430 118.974 129.481 136.965 144.105 153.065 159.505 179.002
91 57.123 63.847 65.624 67.459 68.556 69.458 70.411 70.988 72.275
92 79.234 98.175 103.706 109.768 113.616 116.946 120.679 123.074 128.994
94 99.203 121.216 127.470 134.208 138.415 142.004 145.962 148.460 154.458
95 88.821 113.033 121.172 130.894 137.622 143.885 151.524 156.861 172.201
96 75.356 95.095 100.843 107.131 111.117 114.560 118.415 120.883 126.967
97 96.305 101.389 101.955 102.314 102.444 102.515 102.562 102.579 102.596
98 107.315 134.908 144.673 156.717 165.322 173.552 183.911 191.378 214.104
99 83.260 97.327 100.406 103.249 104.768 105.904 106.981 107.564 108.645
100 81.851 100.012 104.834 109.824 112.816 115.281 117.895 119.480 123.030
102 88.230 125.211 137.555 152.236 162.352 171.734 183.128 191.054 213.662
103 75.403 99.556 107.805 117.754 124.707 131.233 139.270 144.938 161.518
104 92.129 115.994 124.079 133.782 140.529 146.836 154.564 159.988 175.713

AAiT - 182 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Station
No. Estimated Rainfall Depths of in situ 3-day duration for the indicated frequency (Years)
2 10 20 50 100 200 500 1000 10000
1 128.01313 171.32652 185.88419 203.27068 215.30127 226.4996 240.15681 249.69653 277.11283
2 99.610636 120.78396 126.56066 132.636 136.33792 139.43098 142.76262 144.81499 149.54229
3 118.74175 151.38585 162.19962 174.99919 183.77707 191.88577 201.68853 208.47566 227.67339
4 97.540807 132.43811 145.70791 162.83148 175.62425 188.33726 205.05928 217.65947 259.26137
5 96.209123 120.58775 128.11048 136.63444 142.23129 147.21361 152.98552 156.81362 166.84232
6 106.60495 144.62751 157.43279 172.74558 183.35448 193.23998 205.31087 213.75293 238.0687
7 91.816049 117.03331 126.22608 137.77672 146.18176 154.34856 164.81476 172.49848 196.67595
9 86.361495 116.86193 128.10276 142.32427 152.74349 162.92638 176.0643 185.77457 216.70961
10 75.610383 101.55485 110.85544 122.41911 130.74634 138.7658 148.93796 156.32923 179.15046
12 121.11379 139.89737 143.50419 146.59451 148.12392 149.19626 150.14186 150.61615 151.39433
13 96.250845 123.93293 132.99383 143.63954 150.88672 157.53955 165.52435 171.01267 186.33496
14 110.42409 138.47631 147.37496 157.63006 164.47828 170.66276 177.94674 182.85902 196.11492
15 90.527207 116.31803 125.36311 136.45584 144.33603 151.83742 161.22576 167.95638 188.23352
16 133.98317 170.901 182.93958 197.05097 206.63527 215.41624 225.93137 233.14241 253.19187
17 90.706325 124.28295 136.8271 152.83443 164.66203 176.30552 191.4545 202.74553 239.27867
18 123.14511 157.59474 165.9108 174.04376 178.64915 182.26581 185.89461 187.97381 192.20984
19 96.056451 113.63715 117.60961 121.34723 123.3823 124.92848 126.42235 127.24577 128.819
20 140.23434 175.39346 186.88673 200.37938 209.5573 217.97676 228.07394 235.0087 254.34166
21 126.82719 162.28754 174.7114 189.93828 200.74865 211.03392 223.89856 233.11575 260.85311
22 111.72257 156.84667 169.72137 183.63117 192.33922 199.7837 208.01605 213.22471 225.78883
23 96.285233 109.93412 113.44515 117.01033 119.10725 120.80764 122.57747 123.6303 125.91495
24 108.798 134.97692 143.82858 154.43971 161.80928 168.6907 177.11366 183.01875 200.10185
25 114.20823 131.26923 135.73022 140.30417 143.02087 145.24216 147.57617 148.9781 152.07069
26 131.85947 164.62047 172.53466 180.27793 184.66456 188.11068 191.56982 193.55267 197.59528
27 90.53235 118.69121 127.07623 136.37303 142.34613 147.56617 153.48647 157.32958 167.02396
28 94.33888 113.67611 119.76415 126.74782 131.38994 135.56571 140.46169 143.74849 152.54629
29 102.53748 126.21856 133.79342 142.56776 148.45713 153.79884 160.12176 164.40748 176.07702
30 101.35764 121.81764 127.58735 133.77711 137.62479 140.89448 144.48538 146.74152 152.11807
31 104.70431 126.14101 132.12255 138.49883 142.43718 145.76584 149.39882 151.66704 157.0136
32 153.57724 250.51012 284.82771 327.16328 357.41466 386.35595 422.78675 449.05596 529.0361
33 100.51791 129.77637 139.49377 151.01413 158.92737 166.24728 175.11037 181.25659 198.69095
34 90.420262 115.00437 123.35284 133.38769 140.37567 146.91563 154.9417 160.58341 176.98267
35 89.649018 107.0001 112.76855 119.61149 124.31474 128.66762 133.94135 137.60071 147.99219
36 96.612151 108.31378 110.35336 112.00791 112.78206 113.29991 113.73283 113.93826 114.24726
37 101.25222 118.45209 122.56014 126.55272 128.7993 130.55415 132.30419 133.30066 135.30973
38 91.152258 124.2775 136.7725 152.8143 164.73873 176.53794 191.98091 203.55957 241.43737
39 91.332507 110.63944 115.83778 121.26179 124.54062 127.26177 130.17026 131.94792 135.98759
40 107.40736 132.05311 139.40309 147.55975 152.80514 157.39279 162.60053 165.98414 174.53302
41 115.13021 153.1071 166.44469 182.81604 194.45626 205.54518 219.43538 229.40203 259.47543
42 155.59507 184.72326 191.01499 196.78201 199.83969 202.11138 204.25093 205.39967 207.50215
43 100.38851 130.09837 140.41182 152.97947 161.85102 170.25059 180.69763 188.14046 210.30894
44 158.31509 216.39879 236.29879 260.35067 277.19161 293.02651 312.56448 326.37267 366.90511
45 145.72598 196.69845 214.75835 237.04851 252.98382 268.23523 287.44247 301.29881 343.52267

AAiT - 183 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
Con'td
46 102.469 125.099 131.324 137.904 141.933 145.314 148.973 151.239 156.501
47 110.333 131.736 138.465 146.176 151.297 155.901 161.293 164.910 174.576
48 132.083 168.545 181.329 197.003 208.136 218.732 231.990 241.494 270.114
49 111.967 148.990 163.007 181.043 194.481 207.804 225.281 238.415 281.558
51 106.677 134.040 142.040 150.811 156.384 161.208 166.620 170.095 178.692
52 85.845 107.398 113.859 121.054 125.695 129.766 134.401 137.423 145.100
53 87.980 108.626 116.474 126.598 134.160 141.674 151.555 158.998 183.564
54 104.647 135.042 145.802 159.073 168.556 177.626 189.044 197.275 222.333
56 96.925 120.307 128.331 138.039 144.843 151.246 159.154 164.749 181.200
57 119.403 139.473 144.106 148.520 150.954 152.822 154.650 155.670 157.660
58 123.783 174.330 193.247 217.415 235.292 252.907 275.851 292.971 348.475
59 96.586 127.885 139.750 155.032 166.426 177.732 192.574 203.737 240.463
60 91.962 113.876 120.661 128.366 133.435 137.956 143.204 146.692 155.863
62 88.408 107.847 113.784 120.469 124.831 128.694 133.141 136.072 143.668
63 115.432 147.334 157.498 169.242 177.105 184.223 192.628 198.311 213.719
65 153.623 203.045 220.565 242.197 257.666 272.476 291.132 304.596 345.648
66 78.723 96.045 101.525 107.831 112.035 115.826 120.285 123.286 131.364
67 96.187 122.349 131.149 141.666 148.946 155.726 164.000 169.782 186.415
68 131.179 144.012 145.512 146.491 146.856 147.058 147.194 147.246 147.302
69 123.136 154.379 163.982 174.837 181.946 188.262 195.562 200.391 212.990
70 124.315 166.672 182.287 202.047 216.527 230.681 248.945 262.447 305.476
71 123.514 146.348 152.026 157.678 160.935 163.532 166.182 167.728 170.970
72 113.425 142.038 151.296 162.097 169.397 176.059 183.999 189.418 204.359
73 100.300 120.195 125.723 131.602 135.225 138.280 141.606 143.678 148.541
74 92.492 111.981 117.641 123.821 127.732 131.106 134.876 137.286 143.209
77 134.653 185.441 202.514 222.907 237.019 250.157 266.180 277.375 309.552
78 85.178 97.585 99.560 101.083 101.759 102.192 102.536 102.692 102.907
79 100.731 120.148 126.399 133.670 138.570 143.029 148.328 151.934 161.822
80 102.972 138.841 152.317 169.573 182.369 195.003 211.497 223.833 264.004
81 99.086 132.143 144.221 159.419 170.495 181.269 195.097 205.263 237.335
82 114.912 138.355 145.069 152.340 156.902 160.810 165.141 167.888 174.539
83 107.979 139.975 150.879 164.013 173.179 181.772 192.341 199.786 221.510
85 141.282 179.905 193.373 209.829 221.477 232.531 246.317 256.165 285.642
86 138.537 178.914 190.999 204.439 213.101 220.691 229.326 234.948 249.206
87 117.752 144.824 154.409 166.236 174.687 182.773 192.952 200.292 222.644
88 165.728 216.078 229.485 243.380 251.723 258.609 265.920 270.359 280.333
89 90.755 121.723 132.214 144.804 153.559 161.742 171.770 178.808 199.211
90 103.650 133.011 143.407 156.233 165.399 174.169 185.208 193.169 217.411
91 79.747 83.732 84.236 84.579 84.712 84.789 84.843 84.865 84.889
92 93.592 116.264 122.949 130.317 135.023 139.115 143.729 146.706 154.140
94 122.308 141.529 146.094 150.516 152.996 154.927 156.847 157.937 160.122
95 107.556 138.906 150.003 163.692 173.473 182.830 194.607 203.099 228.949
96 91.666 108.857 112.821 116.595 118.674 120.270 121.830 122.700 124.394
97 116.422 128.992 131.062 132.689 133.426 133.906 134.295 134.473 134.729
98 126.827 162.288 174.711 189.938 200.749 211.034 223.899 233.116 260.853
99 99.145 117.098 121.240 125.185 127.360 129.030 130.662 131.573 133.349
100 98.815 119.799 125.163 130.590 133.770 136.340 139.006 140.586 143.993
102 110.122 152.316 166.200 182.567 193.745 204.035 216.424 224.968 248.958
103 90.554 120.512 131.867 146.489 157.391 168.205 182.402 193.077 228.193
104 119.400 139.505 144.650 149.858 152.912 155.381 157.944 159.464 162.745

AAiT - 184 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
Station Estimated Rainfall Depths of ECMWF 1-day duration for the indicated frequency (Years)
No. 2 10 20 50 100 200 500 1000 10000
1 83.089 120.587 133.804 150.064 161.651 172.710 186.594 196.578 226.825
2 62.472 81.070 87.502 95.322 100.830 106.034 112.492 117.083 130.701
3 70.315 103.605 115.400 129.957 140.364 150.325 162.868 171.917 199.491
4 64.624 80.187 84.327 88.616 91.189 93.312 95.564 96.931 100.000
5 57.419 82.192 90.914 101.638 109.275 116.560 125.699 132.267 152.142
6 44.428 55.058 58.685 63.056 66.109 68.973 72.497 74.981 82.239
7 64.811 84.036 91.145 100.158 106.775 113.253 121.628 127.831 147.667
8 74.054 99.724 108.158 118.092 124.870 131.105 138.605 143.772 158.259
9 73.276 87.050 89.226 90.896 91.635 92.106 92.479 92.647 92.878
10 51.693 66.549 72.184 79.446 84.863 90.239 97.301 102.615 120.111
11 51.693 66.549 72.184 79.446 84.863 90.239 97.301 102.615 120.111
12 75.785 100.207 108.544 118.597 125.620 132.211 140.325 146.047 162.774
13 71.871 97.398 106.010 116.320 123.471 130.140 138.293 144.001 160.473
14 68.553 95.706 105.151 116.674 124.819 132.539 142.152 149.009 169.479
15 72.341 112.710 128.069 147.896 162.713 177.442 196.822 211.430 259.693
16 61.995 83.797 90.644 98.487 103.693 108.369 113.845 117.515 127.313
17 66.498 82.454 87.938 94.582 99.243 103.633 109.061 112.906 124.232
18 75.534 96.509 100.885 104.815 106.857 108.348 109.725 110.450 111.733
19 71.871 97.398 106.010 116.320 123.471 130.140 138.293 144.001 160.473
20 64.624 80.187 84.327 88.616 91.189 93.312 95.564 96.931 100.000
21 64.624 80.187 84.327 88.616 91.189 93.312 95.564 96.931 100.000
22 72.341 112.710 128.069 147.896 162.713 177.442 196.822 211.430 259.693
23 55.188 73.264 79.512 87.106 92.452 97.502 103.766 108.217 121.412
24 66.073 92.807 101.801 112.549 119.990 126.921 135.378 141.289 158.294
25 71.907 94.369 101.839 110.702 116.795 122.435 129.269 134.012 147.485
26 65.060 77.979 81.469 85.118 87.328 89.165 91.133 92.338 95.086
27 75.534 96.509 100.885 104.815 106.857 108.348 109.725 110.450 111.733
28 61.576 94.930 107.551 123.786 135.878 147.862 163.578 175.383 214.142
29 70.315 103.605 115.400 129.957 140.364 150.325 162.868 171.917 199.491
30 74.225 89.476 92.199 94.439 95.502 96.221 96.830 97.124 97.574
31 70.320 87.472 92.408 97.769 101.142 104.039 107.258 109.306 114.289
32 67.901 94.712 103.677 114.352 121.715 128.550 136.861 142.648 159.188
33 66.073 92.807 101.801 112.549 119.990 126.921 135.378 141.289 158.294
34 40.704 51.956 56.248 61.798 65.952 70.087 75.536 79.651 93.282
35 62.108 79.190 84.954 91.856 96.644 101.111 106.571 110.395 121.434
36 62.108 79.190 84.954 91.856 96.644 101.111 106.571 110.395 121.434
37 67.901 94.712 103.677 114.352 121.715 128.550 136.861 142.648 159.188
38 62.876 76.105 80.230 84.933 88.040 90.822 94.063 96.227 101.958
39 82.777 116.812 129.581 145.919 158.022 169.964 185.541 197.181 235.026
40 66.073 92.807 101.801 112.549 119.990 126.921 135.378 141.289 158.294
41 62.472 81.070 87.502 95.322 100.830 106.034 112.492 117.083 130.701
42 70.429 93.178 99.527 106.295 110.477 114.011 117.869 120.278 125.957
43 62.108 79.190 84.954 91.856 96.644 101.111 106.571 110.395 121.434
44 76.676 115.416 129.141 146.080 158.190 169.778 184.373 194.901 226.979
45 59.234 74.425 79.296 84.948 88.748 92.199 96.290 99.068 106.651
46 55.188 73.264 79.512 87.106 92.452 97.502 103.766 108.217 121.412
47 76.676 115.416 129.141 146.080 158.190 169.778 184.373 194.901 226.979
48 68.073 76.656 78.518 80.229 81.139 81.817 82.457 82.801 83.434
49 62.876 76.105 80.230 84.933 88.040 90.822 94.063 96.227 101.958
50 62.627 74.332 77.360 80.444 82.264 83.745 85.290 86.212 88.225
51 61.444 74.040 77.847 82.105 84.865 87.296 90.077 91.898 96.564
52 62.472 81.070 87.502 95.322 100.830 106.034 112.492 117.083 130.701

AAiT - 185 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Con'td
53 66.498 82.454 87.938 94.582 99.243 103.633 109.061 112.906 124.232
54 61.576 94.930 107.551 123.786 135.878 147.862 163.578 175.383 214.142
55 61.444 74.040 77.847 82.105 84.865 87.296 90.077 91.898 96.564
56 57.419 82.192 90.914 101.638 109.275 116.560 125.699 132.267 152.142
57 65.293 82.386 88.702 96.705 102.578 108.326 115.754 121.253 138.822
58 83.089 120.587 133.804 150.064 161.651 172.710 186.594 196.578 226.825
59 62.472 81.070 87.502 95.322 100.830 106.034 112.492 117.083 130.701
60 73.276 87.050 89.226 90.896 91.635 92.106 92.479 92.647 92.878
61 73.276 87.050 89.226 90.896 91.635 92.106 92.479 92.647 92.878
62 73.276 87.050 89.226 90.896 91.635 92.106 92.479 92.647 92.878
63 58.438 74.316 79.718 86.217 90.748 94.993 100.208 103.877 114.564
64 74.600 99.643 105.610 111.400 114.653 117.191 119.718 121.155 124.044
65 67.419 87.308 92.565 97.991 101.234 103.901 106.720 108.425 112.227
66 57.651 74.479 80.225 87.156 91.999 96.545 102.142 106.091 117.638
67 55.188 73.264 79.512 87.106 92.452 97.502 103.766 108.217 121.412
68 57.651 74.479 80.225 87.156 91.999 96.545 102.142 106.091 117.638
69 74.225 89.476 92.199 94.439 95.502 96.221 96.830 97.124 97.574
70 61.995 83.797 90.644 98.487 103.693 108.369 113.845 117.515 127.313
71 44.428 55.058 58.685 63.056 66.109 68.973 72.497 74.981 82.239
72 55.188 73.264 79.512 87.106 92.452 97.502 103.766 108.217 121.412
73 55.188 73.264 79.512 87.106 92.452 97.502 103.766 108.217 121.412
74 64.012 73.417 74.997 76.252 76.827 77.205 77.514 77.658 77.868
75 69.281 92.803 99.338 106.285 110.564 114.172 118.100 120.546 126.285
76 74.864 106.828 117.922 131.439 140.980 150.012 161.244 169.246 193.072
77 70.320 87.472 92.408 97.769 101.142 104.039 107.258 109.306 114.289
78 60.042 69.543 71.893 74.225 75.564 76.629 77.713 78.342 79.656
79 64.624 80.187 84.327 88.616 91.189 93.312 95.564 96.931 100.000
80 68.581 86.280 91.864 98.277 102.546 106.389 110.901 113.934 122.069
81 58.438 74.316 79.718 86.217 90.748 94.993 100.208 103.877 114.564
82 87.892 126.887 141.302 159.574 172.986 186.116 203.087 215.654 255.830
83 68.553 95.706 105.151 116.674 124.819 132.539 142.152 149.009 169.479
84 74.054 99.724 108.158 118.092 124.870 131.105 138.605 143.772 158.259
85 68.553 95.706 105.151 116.674 124.819 132.539 142.152 149.009 169.479
86 65.799 85.551 92.456 100.908 106.900 112.595 119.709 124.799 140.081
87 83.089 120.587 133.804 150.064 161.651 172.710 186.594 196.578 226.825
88 68.581 86.280 91.864 98.277 102.546 106.389 110.901 113.934 122.069
89 55.188 73.264 79.512 87.106 92.452 97.502 103.766 108.217 121.412
90 72.691 93.169 100.376 109.234 115.541 121.556 129.099 134.519 150.913
91 44.423 56.595 60.558 65.198 68.347 71.229 74.677 77.039 83.595
92 71.871 97.398 106.010 116.320 123.471 130.140 138.293 144.001 160.473
93 74.600 99.643 105.610 111.400 114.653 117.191 119.718 121.155 124.044
94 66.498 82.454 87.938 94.582 99.243 103.633 109.061 112.906 124.232
95 64.624 80.187 84.327 88.616 91.189 93.312 95.564 96.931 100.000
96 69.281 92.803 99.338 106.285 110.564 114.172 118.100 120.546 126.285
97 87.892 126.887 141.302 159.574 172.986 186.116 203.087 215.654 255.830
98 67.419 87.308 92.565 97.991 101.234 103.901 106.720 108.425 112.227
99 70.320 87.472 92.408 97.769 101.142 104.039 107.258 109.306 114.289
100 57.419 82.192 90.914 101.638 109.275 116.560 125.699 132.267 152.142
101 62.876 76.105 80.230 84.933 88.040 90.822 94.063 96.227 101.958
102 62.876 76.105 80.230 84.933 88.040 90.822 94.063 96.227 101.958
103 64.624 80.187 84.327 88.616 91.189 93.312 95.564 96.931 100.000
104 62.472 81.070 87.502 95.322 100.830 106.034 112.492 117.083 130.701

AAiT - 186 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Station Estimated Rainfall Depths of ECMWF 2-day duration for the indicated frequency (Years)
No. 2 10 20 50 100 200 500 1000 10000
1 100.203 140.651 154.271 170.556 181.838 192.349 205.184 214.159 240.005
2 77.941 98.629 105.590 113.909 119.670 125.035 131.583 136.159 149.329
3 89.409 127.486 140.563 156.392 167.492 177.942 190.854 199.993 226.891
4 82.789 98.648 102.601 106.542 108.817 110.632 112.488 113.571 115.851
5 74.135 100.913 110.323 121.876 130.094 137.924 147.735 154.777 176.037
6 60.299 77.257 82.637 88.836 92.975 96.713 101.116 104.085 112.096
7 78.437 97.733 104.468 112.702 118.535 124.073 130.984 135.924 150.727
9 86.252 97.586 99.101 100.163 100.589 100.841 101.023 101.098 101.187
10 67.666 86.262 92.830 100.920 106.693 112.209 119.141 124.133 139.291
12 88.503 117.575 127.752 140.218 149.064 157.476 167.993 175.524 198.166
13 87.604 117.276 127.776 140.727 149.979 158.829 169.966 177.994 202.428
14 81.906 111.630 121.983 134.627 143.570 152.053 162.626 170.174 192.741
15 83.470 122.621 136.487 153.597 165.826 177.528 192.262 202.888 235.257
16 75.318 100.767 109.332 119.571 126.663 133.269 141.332 146.969 163.196
17 81.846 99.075 104.721 111.361 115.885 120.040 125.031 128.465 138.064
18 87.220 105.735 109.159 112.030 113.421 114.378 115.204 115.610 116.253
19 87.604 117.276 127.776 140.727 149.979 158.829 169.966 177.994 202.428
20 82.789 98.648 102.601 106.542 108.817 110.632 112.488 113.571 115.851
21 82.789 98.648 102.601 106.542 108.817 110.632 112.488 113.571 115.851
22 83.470 122.621 136.487 153.597 165.826 177.528 192.262 202.888 235.257
23 68.703 86.383 92.072 98.687 103.143 107.197 112.013 115.289 124.268
24 80.980 111.141 121.826 135.013 144.440 153.461 164.822 173.017 197.986
25 81.779 103.735 111.477 121.003 127.794 134.276 142.416 148.270 166.016
26 74.744 91.037 96.305 102.450 106.602 110.389 114.902 117.981 126.465
27 87.220 105.735 109.159 112.030 113.421 114.378 115.204 115.610 116.253
28 82.371 121.662 136.654 156.043 170.560 185.013 204.065 218.451 266.141
29 89.409 127.486 140.563 156.392 167.492 177.942 190.854 199.993 226.891
30 96.868 132.888 144.333 157.537 166.364 174.342 183.749 190.099 207.266
31 82.551 103.897 110.605 118.291 123.395 127.981 133.353 136.955 146.577
32 86.804 117.341 128.040 141.154 150.465 159.324 170.406 178.345 202.241
33 80.980 111.141 121.826 135.013 144.440 153.461 164.822 173.017 197.986
34 60.697 76.068 80.959 86.608 90.388 93.807 97.843 100.569 107.953
35 79.450 95.863 100.889 106.558 110.263 113.548 117.336 119.837 126.335
36 79.450 95.863 100.889 106.558 110.263 113.548 117.336 119.837 126.335
37 86.804 117.341 128.040 141.154 150.465 159.324 170.406 178.345 202.241
38 81.464 101.593 108.633 117.254 123.367 129.179 136.441 141.639 157.251
39 96.606 129.503 141.003 155.077 165.054 174.536 186.379 194.852 220.286
40 80.980 111.141 121.826 135.013 144.440 153.461 164.822 173.017 197.986
41 77.941 98.629 105.590 113.909 119.670 125.035 131.583 136.159 149.329
42 82.630 102.434 107.206 111.868 114.505 116.574 118.647 119.834 122.248
43 79.450 95.863 100.889 106.558 110.263 113.548 117.336 119.837 126.335
44 93.412 134.991 149.579 167.474 180.190 192.298 207.455 218.324 251.084
45 72.996 92.919 99.517 107.325 112.679 117.624 123.602 127.740 139.440

AAiT - 187 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
Con'td
46 68.703 86.383 92.072 98.687 103.143 107.197 112.013 115.289 124.268
47 93.412 134.991 149.579 167.474 180.190 192.298 207.455 218.324 251.084
48 80.433 96.819 102.150 108.391 112.624 116.497 121.129 124.301 133.099
49 81.464 101.593 108.633 117.254 123.367 129.179 136.441 141.639 157.251
51 78.459 95.149 99.128 102.991 105.162 106.856 108.544 109.505 111.437
52 77.941 98.629 105.590 113.909 119.670 125.035 131.583 136.159 149.329
53 81.846 99.075 104.721 111.361 115.885 120.040 125.031 128.465 138.064
54 82.371 121.662 136.654 156.043 170.560 185.013 204.065 218.451 266.141
56 74.135 100.913 110.323 121.876 130.094 137.924 147.735 154.777 176.037
57 79.134 99.688 106.811 115.481 121.595 127.378 134.564 139.678 154.880
58 100.203 140.651 154.271 170.556 181.838 192.349 205.184 214.159 240.005
59 77.941 98.629 105.590 113.909 119.670 125.035 131.583 136.159 149.329
60 86.252 97.586 99.101 100.163 100.589 100.841 101.023 101.098 101.187
62 86.252 97.586 99.101 100.163 100.589 100.841 101.023 101.098 101.187
63 79.033 97.939 104.685 113.048 119.053 124.822 132.119 137.406 153.644
65 81.281 102.293 107.932 113.806 117.349 120.285 123.418 125.329 129.658
66 72.036 91.408 98.206 106.547 112.475 118.120 125.188 130.257 145.540
67 68.703 86.383 92.072 98.687 103.143 107.197 112.013 115.289 124.268
68 72.036 91.408 98.206 106.547 112.475 118.120 125.188 130.257 145.540
69 96.868 132.888 144.333 157.537 166.364 174.342 183.749 190.099 207.266
70 75.318 100.767 109.332 119.571 126.663 133.269 141.332 146.969 163.196
71 100.010 136.319 145.873 155.706 161.568 166.377 171.449 174.507 181.296
72 68.703 86.383 92.072 98.687 103.143 107.197 112.013 115.289 124.268
73 68.703 86.383 92.072 98.687 103.143 107.197 112.013 115.289 124.268
74 89.367 112.966 119.883 127.479 132.312 136.502 141.209 144.236 151.746
77 82.551 103.897 110.605 118.291 123.395 127.981 133.353 136.955 146.577
78 78.524 93.837 99.027 105.258 109.592 113.644 118.611 122.098 132.213
79 82.789 98.648 102.601 106.542 108.817 110.632 112.488 113.571 115.851
80 80.889 102.417 109.661 118.320 124.315 129.900 136.716 141.480 155.190
81 79.033 97.939 104.685 113.048 119.053 124.822 132.119 137.406 153.644
82 105.692 144.320 156.725 171.130 180.822 189.631 200.083 207.185 226.605
83 81.906 111.630 121.983 134.627 143.570 152.053 162.626 170.174 192.741
85 81.906 111.630 121.983 134.627 143.570 152.053 162.626 170.174 192.741
86 83.791 102.652 108.124 114.095 117.870 121.126 124.761 127.084 132.786
87 100.203 140.651 154.271 170.556 181.838 192.349 205.184 214.159 240.005
88 80.889 102.417 109.661 118.320 124.315 129.900 136.716 141.480 155.190
89 68.703 86.383 92.072 98.687 103.143 107.197 112.013 115.289 124.268
90 89.187 115.731 125.310 137.268 145.915 154.271 164.914 172.678 196.830
91 61.350 77.956 83.750 90.832 95.848 100.609 106.549 110.793 123.508
92 87.604 117.276 127.776 140.727 149.979 158.829 169.966 177.994 202.428
94 81.846 99.075 104.721 111.361 115.885 120.040 125.031 128.465 138.064
95 82.789 98.648 102.601 106.542 108.817 110.632 112.488 113.571 115.851
96 91.304 124.270 134.606 146.432 154.273 161.311 169.542 175.054 189.741
97 105.692 144.320 156.725 171.130 180.822 189.631 200.083 207.185 226.605
98 81.281 102.293 107.932 113.806 117.349 120.285 123.418 125.329 129.658
99 82.551 103.897 110.605 118.291 123.395 127.981 133.353 136.955 146.577
100 74.135 100.913 110.323 121.876 130.094 137.924 147.735 154.777 176.037
102 81.464 101.593 108.633 117.254 123.367 129.179 136.441 141.639 157.251
103 77.941 98.629 105.590 113.909 119.670 125.035 131.583 136.159 149.329
104 82.789 98.648 102.601 106.542 108.817 110.632 112.488 113.571 115.851

AAiT - 188 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Station Estimated Rainfall Depths of ECMWF 3 -day duration for the indicated frequency (Years)
No. 2 10 20 50 100 200 500 1000 10000
1 105.930 142.918 155.039 169.289 178.997 187.914 198.623 205.989 226.579
2 90.326 116.399 125.651 137.081 145.259 153.093 162.969 170.099 191.865
3 94.248 130.248 142.833 158.237 169.158 179.537 192.501 201.777 229.623
4 97.294 115.000 119.525 124.102 126.783 128.950 131.196 132.528 135.398
5 79.879 108.182 118.776 132.311 142.323 152.190 165.042 174.633 205.731
6 74.492 95.765 103.254 112.461 119.016 125.269 133.113 138.749 155.801
7 85.986 108.175 116.262 126.424 133.817 141.000 150.205 156.963 178.222
9 98.061 111.300 113.220 114.627 115.219 115.582 115.857 115.974 116.125
10 81.678 97.137 101.403 105.921 108.694 111.024 113.551 115.118 118.771
12 93.454 121.451 132.064 145.732 155.923 166.033 179.306 189.289 222.128
13 95.408 123.757 133.691 145.867 154.513 162.739 173.029 180.403 202.596
14 88.448 113.756 122.239 132.355 139.344 145.840 153.750 159.266 175.074
15 88.548 128.866 143.617 162.194 175.743 188.933 205.875 218.340 257.727
16 82.912 107.714 116.247 126.587 133.847 140.687 149.149 155.145 172.827
17 95.575 117.883 125.687 135.243 142.022 148.466 156.519 162.284 179.604
18 98.423 122.063 127.010 131.461 133.777 135.471 137.039 137.865 139.332
19 95.408 123.757 133.691 145.867 154.513 162.739 173.029 180.403 202.596
20 97.294 115.000 119.525 124.102 126.783 128.950 131.196 132.528 135.398
21 97.294 115.000 119.525 124.102 126.783 128.950 131.196 132.528 135.398
22 88.548 128.866 143.617 162.194 175.743 188.933 205.875 218.340 257.727
23 77.524 98.461 105.839 114.912 121.377 127.545 135.288 140.854 157.712
24 85.988 113.508 123.258 135.290 143.892 152.124 162.491 169.969 192.755
25 95.917 125.324 135.985 149.335 159.015 168.394 180.373 189.138 216.545
26 92.947 110.162 114.512 118.883 121.427 123.471 125.577 126.816 129.459
27 98.423 122.063 127.010 131.461 133.777 135.471 137.039 137.865 139.332
28 89.193 127.671 142.155 160.726 174.512 188.139 205.951 219.289 262.817
29 94.248 130.248 142.833 158.237 169.158 179.537 192.501 201.777 229.623
30 124.705 162.199 171.767 181.436 187.095 191.666 196.401 199.204 205.239
31 96.633 111.714 115.581 119.500 121.800 123.663 125.597 126.746 129.230
32 97.946 125.608 135.341 147.302 155.817 163.936 174.117 181.431 203.546
33 85.988 113.508 123.258 135.290 143.892 152.124 162.491 169.969 192.755
34 75.850 96.036 102.504 110.003 115.042 119.616 125.035 128.712 138.743
35 94.665 116.615 123.333 130.907 135.855 140.241 145.297 148.634 157.300
36 94.665 116.615 123.333 130.907 135.855 140.241 145.297 148.634 157.300
37 97.946 125.608 135.341 147.302 155.817 163.936 174.117 181.431 203.546
38 96.805 120.951 129.422 139.812 147.195 154.224 163.023 169.332 188.347
39 102.839 138.269 150.695 165.936 176.763 187.071 199.971 209.221 237.088
40 85.988 113.508 123.258 135.290 143.892 152.124 162.491 169.969 192.755
41 90.326 116.399 125.651 137.081 145.259 153.093 162.969 170.099 191.865
42 93.887 115.235 120.487 125.682 128.657 131.016 133.409 134.796 137.674
43 94.665 116.615 123.333 130.907 135.855 140.241 145.297 148.634 157.300
44 97.685 135.910 149.189 165.377 176.809 187.636 201.109 210.711 239.333
45 86.680 110.997 119.591 130.181 137.740 144.964 154.048 160.592 180.473

AAiT - 189 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
Con'td
46 77.524 98.461 105.839 114.912 121.377 127.545 135.288 140.854 157.712
47 97.685 135.910 149.189 165.377 176.809 187.636 201.109 210.711 239.333
48 100.408 117.984 122.885 128.108 131.332 134.057 137.029 138.885 143.255
49 96.805 120.951 129.422 139.812 147.195 154.224 163.023 169.332 188.347
51 95.341 121.097 128.666 136.993 142.300 146.907 152.091 155.430 163.737
52 90.326 116.399 125.651 137.081 145.259 153.093 162.969 170.099 191.865
53 95.575 117.883 125.687 135.243 142.022 148.466 156.519 162.284 179.604
54 89.193 127.671 142.155 160.726 174.512 188.139 205.951 219.289 262.817
56 79.879 108.182 118.776 132.311 142.323 152.190 165.042 174.633 205.731
57 83.857 101.356 107.046 113.706 118.222 122.353 127.293 130.675 140.050
58 105.930 142.918 155.039 169.289 178.997 187.914 198.623 205.989 226.579
59 90.326 116.399 125.651 137.081 145.259 153.093 162.969 170.099 191.865
60 98.061 111.300 113.220 114.627 115.219 115.582 115.857 115.974 116.125
62 98.061 111.300 113.220 114.627 115.219 115.582 115.857 115.974 116.125
63 96.894 119.862 127.552 136.714 143.038 148.913 156.060 161.041 175.294
65 92.678 109.475 113.344 117.024 119.052 120.607 122.125 122.972 124.620
66 82.639 104.196 111.658 120.736 127.132 133.180 140.689 146.029 161.886
67 77.524 98.461 105.839 114.912 121.377 127.545 135.288 140.854 157.712
68 82.639 104.196 111.658 120.736 127.132 133.180 140.689 146.029 161.886
69 124.705 162.199 171.767 181.436 187.095 191.666 196.401 199.204 205.239
70 82.912 107.714 116.247 126.587 133.847 140.687 149.149 155.145 172.827
71 74.492 95.765 103.254 112.461 119.016 125.269 133.113 138.749 155.801
72 77.524 98.461 105.839 114.912 121.377 127.545 135.288 140.854 157.712
73 77.524 98.461 105.839 114.912 121.377 127.545 135.288 140.854 157.712
74 109.952 136.679 144.017 151.764 156.502 160.474 164.768 167.423 173.578
77 96.633 111.714 115.581 119.500 121.800 123.663 125.597 126.746 129.230
78 100.483 123.829 132.094 142.290 149.575 156.545 165.319 171.645 190.905
79 97.294 115.000 119.525 124.102 126.783 128.950 131.196 132.528 135.398
80 96.215 117.614 123.805 130.552 134.811 138.479 142.569 145.178 151.566
81 96.894 119.862 127.552 136.714 143.038 148.913 156.060 161.041 175.294
82 109.258 153.077 168.742 188.186 202.163 215.604 232.624 244.971 282.973
83 88.448 113.756 122.239 132.355 139.344 145.840 153.750 159.266 175.074
85 88.448 113.756 122.239 132.355 139.344 145.840 153.750 159.266 175.074
86 93.413 112.515 117.868 123.590 127.133 130.135 133.419 135.475 140.343
87 105.930 142.918 155.039 169.289 178.997 187.914 198.623 205.989 226.579
88 96.215 117.614 123.805 130.552 134.811 138.479 142.569 145.178 151.566
89 77.524 98.461 105.839 114.912 121.377 127.545 135.288 140.854 157.712
90 96.966 121.281 129.527 139.431 146.322 152.766 160.669 166.219 182.329
91 76.387 96.582 103.724 112.528 118.816 124.828 132.390 137.840 154.413
92 95.408 123.757 133.691 145.867 154.513 162.739 173.029 180.403 202.596
94 95.575 117.883 125.687 135.243 142.022 148.466 156.519 162.284 179.604
95 97.294 115.000 119.525 124.102 126.783 128.950 131.196 132.528 135.398
96 120.925 159.159 168.869 178.654 184.365 188.966 193.719 196.526 202.537
97 109.258 153.077 168.742 188.186 202.163 215.604 232.624 244.971 282.973
98 92.678 109.475 113.344 117.024 119.052 120.607 122.125 122.972 124.620
99 96.633 111.714 115.581 119.500 121.800 123.663 125.597 126.746 129.230
100 96.633 111.714 115.581 119.500 121.800 123.663 125.597 126.746 129.230
102 96.805 120.951 129.422 139.812 147.195 154.224 163.023 169.332 188.347
103 90.326 116.399 125.651 137.081 145.259 153.093 162.969 170.099 191.865
104 97.294 115.000 119.525 124.102 126.783 128.950 131.196 132.528 135.398

AAiT - 190 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Station Rainfall Depths of ECMWF bias Correction 1-Day duration for the indicated frequency (Years)
No. 2 10 20 50 100 200 500 1000 10000
1 45.498 59.844 64.778 70.754 74.948 78.899 83.785 87.247 97.448
2 39.462 49.903 53.599 58.158 61.416 64.532 68.455 71.283 79.894
3 38.498 52.144 57.253 63.781 68.611 73.371 79.571 84.199 99.208
4 38.760 44.496 45.754 46.917 47.539 48.005 48.447 48.687 49.132
5 33.823 43.681 47.167 51.465 54.534 57.468 61.159 63.819 71.907
6 29.900 34.720 36.260 38.043 39.238 40.322 41.603 42.471 44.831
7 37.109 45.546 48.849 53.191 56.494 59.829 64.296 67.723 79.425
8 51.751 70.698 77.410 85.693 91.614 97.281 104.416 109.564 125.246
9 42.574 58.690 63.741 69.519 73.349 76.787 80.806 83.497 90.666
10 34.610 42.892 45.882 49.614 52.314 54.923 58.246 60.671 68.216
11 34.610 42.892 45.882 49.614 52.314 54.923 58.246 60.671 68.216
12 44.755 59.227 64.353 70.677 75.198 79.523 84.969 88.897 100.861
13 43.110 55.862 60.311 65.750 69.601 73.257 77.819 81.079 90.844
14 39.626 52.159 56.563 61.970 65.816 69.480 74.071 77.366 87.315
15 49.618 55.195 55.777 56.135 56.260 56.326 56.368 56.383 56.398
16 37.632 48.293 51.796 55.922 58.738 61.328 64.443 66.590 72.609
17 39.021 46.644 48.956 51.547 53.231 54.717 56.420 57.538 60.413
18 41.335 53.395 56.626 59.989 62.016 63.694 65.482 66.572 69.038
19 43.110 55.862 60.311 65.750 69.601 73.257 77.819 81.079 90.844
20 38.367 43.766 44.970 46.094 46.701 47.159 47.598 47.839 48.292
21 49.618 55.195 55.777 56.135 56.260 56.326 56.368 56.383 56.398
22 49.618 55.195 55.777 56.135 56.260 56.326 56.368 56.383 56.398
23 34.449 43.118 46.174 49.933 52.611 55.167 58.377 60.684 67.674
24 37.722 47.892 51.103 54.794 57.252 59.467 62.068 63.817 68.516
25 45.408 51.407 52.359 53.091 53.416 53.624 53.788 53.863 53.965
26 40.659 51.332 54.419 57.783 59.907 61.736 63.774 65.075 68.258
27 41.335 53.395 56.626 59.989 62.016 63.694 65.482 66.572 69.038
28 36.212 50.265 55.245 61.390 65.783 69.988 75.283 79.103 90.744
29 38.498 52.144 57.253 63.781 68.611 73.371 79.571 84.199 99.208
30 63.720 78.173 80.412 82.114 82.858 83.328 83.697 83.861 84.083
31 43.474 54.297 57.272 60.416 62.340 63.954 65.700 66.781 69.289
32 44.885 61.422 66.566 72.425 76.291 79.747 83.770 86.451 93.538
33 37.722 47.892 51.103 54.794 57.252 59.467 62.068 63.817 68.516
34 29.053 36.078 38.794 42.336 45.011 47.692 51.256 53.970 63.102
35 35.576 40.168 41.317 42.465 43.129 43.660 44.204 44.522 45.194
36 35.576 40.168 41.317 42.465 43.129 43.660 44.204 44.522 45.194
37 44.885 61.422 66.566 72.425 76.291 79.747 83.770 86.451 93.538
38 40.005 50.049 53.671 58.189 61.454 64.608 68.623 71.550 80.646
39 45.739 61.821 67.937 75.830 81.728 87.589 95.300 101.110 120.298
40 37.722 47.892 51.103 54.794 57.252 59.467 62.068 63.817 68.516
41 39.462 49.903 53.599 58.158 61.416 64.532 68.455 71.283 79.894
42 40.292 52.107 55.698 59.728 62.349 64.664 67.321 69.067 73.566
43 35.877 41.181 42.555 43.955 44.782 45.454 46.157 46.576 47.493
44 42.923 59.864 65.803 73.087 78.260 83.183 89.344 93.761 107.062
45 37.820 46.251 49.127 52.593 55.014 57.285 60.079 62.049 67.803
46 34.449 43.118 46.174 49.933 52.611 55.167 58.377 60.684 67.674
47 42.923 59.864 65.803 73.087 78.260 83.183 89.344 93.761 107.062
48 42.458 54.162 58.069 62.716 65.918 68.889 72.496 75.005 82.164
49 40.005 50.049 53.671 58.189 61.454 64.608 68.623 71.550 80.646
50 39.736 50.740 54.609 59.362 62.743 65.966 70.005 72.906 81.668
51 39.309 47.014 49.403 52.116 53.902 55.496 57.347 58.578 61.818
52 39.462 49.903 53.599 58.158 61.416 64.532 68.455 71.283 79.894

AAiT - 191 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
Con'td
53 39.021 46.644 48.956 51.547 53.231 54.717 56.420 57.538 60.413
54 36.212 50.265 55.245 61.390 65.783 69.988 75.283 79.103 90.744
55 39.364 48.733 51.951 55.846 58.578 61.149 64.327 66.576 73.196
56 33.823 43.681 47.167 51.465 54.534 57.468 61.159 63.819 71.907
57 40.313 50.098 53.353 57.216 59.872 62.332 65.312 67.381 73.260
58 45.498 59.844 64.778 70.754 74.948 78.899 83.785 87.247 97.448
59 39.462 49.903 53.599 58.158 61.416 64.532 68.455 71.283 79.894
60 42.574 58.690 63.741 69.519 73.349 76.787 80.806 83.497 90.666
61 42.574 58.690 63.741 69.519 73.349 76.787 80.806 83.497 90.666
62 42.574 58.690 63.741 69.519 73.349 76.787 80.806 83.497 90.666
63 36.710 45.800 49.021 52.997 55.839 58.559 61.984 64.456 71.986
64 62.091 71.846 72.955 73.667 73.928 74.071 74.166 74.202 74.239
65 38.505 46.394 48.522 50.745 52.090 53.207 54.403 55.135 56.801
66 37.669 48.944 52.802 57.462 60.723 63.788 67.566 70.235 78.058
67 34.449 43.118 46.174 49.933 52.611 55.167 58.377 60.684 67.674
68 37.669 48.944 52.802 57.462 60.723 63.788 67.566 70.235 78.058
69 63.720 78.173 80.412 82.114 82.858 83.328 83.697 83.861 84.083
70 37.632 48.293 51.796 55.922 58.738 61.328 64.443 66.590 72.609
71 29.743 33.733 34.924 36.247 37.098 37.843 38.688 39.238 40.628
72 34.449 43.118 46.174 49.933 52.611 55.167 58.377 60.684 67.674
73 34.449 43.118 46.174 49.933 52.611 55.167 58.377 60.684 67.674
74 57.457 73.836 77.535 81.014 82.908 84.347 85.736 86.502 87.964
75 56.025 62.701 63.389 63.809 63.955 64.032 64.080 64.097 64.114
76 49.898 56.330 57.155 57.719 57.941 58.069 58.160 58.196 58.238
77 43.474 54.297 57.272 60.416 62.340 63.954 65.700 66.781 69.289
78 39.736 51.904 56.208 61.514 65.304 68.927 73.485 76.770 86.760
79 38.760 44.496 45.754 46.917 47.539 48.005 48.447 48.687 49.132
80 43.214 51.573 53.430 55.161 56.095 56.798 57.471 57.839 58.530
81 36.710 45.800 49.021 52.997 55.839 58.559 61.984 64.456 71.986
82 52.763 62.576 64.320 65.751 66.429 66.886 67.272 67.458 67.742
83 39.626 52.159 56.563 61.970 65.816 69.480 74.071 77.366 87.315
84 51.751 70.698 77.410 85.693 91.614 97.281 104.416 109.564 125.246
85 39.626 52.159 56.563 61.970 65.816 69.480 74.071 77.366 87.315
86 40.645 52.318 56.658 62.179 66.245 70.238 75.417 79.265 91.647
87 45.498 59.844 64.778 70.754 74.948 78.899 83.785 87.247 97.448
88 43.214 51.573 53.430 55.161 56.095 56.798 57.471 57.839 58.530
89 34.449 43.118 46.174 49.933 52.611 55.167 58.377 60.684 67.674
90 43.722 56.861 61.804 68.139 72.840 77.486 83.555 88.099 102.917
91 35.644 46.050 49.735 54.283 57.533 60.643 64.560 67.385 75.989
92 43.110 55.862 60.311 65.750 69.601 73.257 77.819 81.079 90.844
93 62.091 71.846 72.955 73.667 73.928 74.071 74.166 74.202 74.239
94 39.021 46.644 48.956 51.547 53.231 54.717 56.420 57.538 60.413
95 38.760 44.496 45.754 46.917 47.539 48.005 48.447 48.687 49.132
96 56.025 62.701 63.389 63.809 63.955 64.032 64.080 64.097 64.114
97 52.763 62.576 64.320 65.751 66.429 66.886 67.272 67.458 67.742
98 38.505 46.394 48.522 50.745 52.090 53.207 54.403 55.135 56.801
99 43.474 54.297 57.272 60.416 62.340 63.954 65.700 66.781 69.289
100 33.823 43.681 47.167 51.465 54.534 57.468 61.159 63.819 71.907
101 40.005 50.049 53.671 58.189 61.454 64.608 68.623 71.550 80.646
102 40.005 50.049 53.671 58.189 61.454 64.608 68.623 71.550 80.646
103 39.462 49.903 53.599 58.158 61.416 64.532 68.455 71.283 79.894
104 38.760 44.496 45.754 46.917 47.539 48.005 48.447 48.687 49.132

AAiT - 192 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Station Rainfall Depths of ECMWF bias Correction 2-Day duration for the indicated frequency (Years)
No. 2 10 20 50 100 200 500 1000 10000
1 57.509 74.142 80.285 88.066 93.773 99.357 106.571 111.909 128.952
2 52.962 66.435 71.206 77.092 81.298 85.323 90.390 94.044 105.170
3 52.584 67.806 73.082 79.506 84.037 88.324 93.651 97.443 108.720
4 52.590 58.189 59.385 60.475 61.049 61.472 61.869 62.081 62.464
5 47.481 57.393 60.820 64.985 67.917 70.688 74.125 76.568 83.810
6 43.454 52.439 55.527 59.268 61.892 64.363 67.419 69.583 75.957
7 49.517 58.016 61.027 64.743 67.400 69.943 73.145 75.456 82.496
9 54.678 71.643 77.121 83.504 87.813 91.741 96.417 99.604 108.373
10 49.345 61.868 66.302 71.774 75.683 79.424 84.134 87.530 97.872
12 55.434 71.110 77.087 84.813 90.595 96.349 103.930 109.652 128.603
13 56.783 71.312 76.693 83.523 88.542 93.460 99.826 104.545 119.664
14 51.244 65.079 70.214 76.738 81.538 86.247 92.348 96.877 111.417
15 58.792 64.538 65.161 65.551 65.691 65.765 65.814 65.832 65.850
16 50.744 64.424 69.240 75.161 79.377 83.399 88.444 92.069 103.038
17 50.665 59.532 62.736 66.738 69.634 72.434 76.003 78.609 86.723
18 53.163 62.356 64.277 66.006 66.905 67.563 68.171 68.491 69.059
19 56.783 71.312 76.693 83.523 88.542 93.460 99.826 104.545 119.664
20 52.590 58.189 59.385 60.475 61.049 61.472 61.869 62.081 62.464
21 52.590 58.189 59.385 60.475 61.049 61.472 61.869 62.081 62.464
22 58.792 64.538 65.161 65.551 65.691 65.765 65.814 65.832 65.850
23 47.335 57.786 61.485 66.048 69.308 72.426 76.350 79.180 87.792
24 51.443 63.764 67.677 72.190 75.205 77.930 81.141 83.308 89.163
25 54.766 63.867 66.084 68.262 69.502 70.481 71.467 72.035 73.202
26 49.515 60.273 63.976 68.465 71.617 74.589 78.266 80.872 88.563
27 53.163 62.356 64.277 66.006 66.905 67.563 68.171 68.491 69.059
28 50.590 63.179 67.281 72.086 75.349 78.337 81.913 84.364 91.175
29 52.584 67.806 73.082 79.506 84.037 88.324 93.651 97.443 108.720
30 83.108 95.066 96.596 97.643 98.054 98.291 98.459 98.526 98.604
31 53.832 68.572 74.090 81.140 86.355 91.495 98.190 103.187 119.390
32 60.493 77.579 82.875 88.892 92.854 96.389 100.495 103.226 110.414
33 51.443 63.764 67.677 72.190 75.205 77.930 81.141 83.308 89.163
34 45.104 55.213 58.960 63.718 67.216 70.645 75.086 78.379 88.940
35 49.948 57.986 60.674 63.874 66.082 68.131 70.622 72.357 77.315
36 49.948 57.986 60.674 63.874 66.082 68.131 70.622 72.357 77.315
37 60.493 77.579 82.875 88.892 92.854 96.389 100.495 103.226 110.414
38 56.827 70.463 75.237 81.084 85.234 89.180 94.113 97.646 108.267
39 57.268 73.349 79.199 86.541 91.877 97.057 103.686 108.547 123.810
40 51.443 63.764 67.677 72.190 75.205 77.930 81.141 83.308 89.163
41 52.962 66.435 71.206 77.092 81.298 85.323 90.390 94.044 105.170
42 51.455 63.992 68.062 72.820 76.043 78.988 82.507 84.913 91.571
43 49.948 57.986 60.674 63.874 66.082 68.131 70.622 72.357 77.315
44 55.052 73.694 80.701 89.679 96.338 102.915 111.506 117.933 138.878
45 50.646 62.428 66.598 71.743 75.419 78.935 83.361 86.552 96.266

AAiT - 193 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Con'td
46 47.335 57.786 61.485 66.048 69.308 72.426 76.350 79.180 87.792
47 55.052 73.694 80.701 89.679 96.338 102.915 111.506 117.933 138.878
48 53.612 64.604 68.394 72.991 76.223 79.271 83.046 85.724 93.639
49 56.827 70.463 75.237 81.084 85.234 89.180 94.113 97.646 108.267
51 51.215 62.815 66.912 71.958 75.558 78.999 83.322 86.436 95.888
52 52.962 66.435 71.206 77.092 81.298 85.323 90.390 94.044 105.170
53 50.665 59.532 62.736 66.738 69.634 72.434 76.003 78.609 86.723
54 50.590 63.179 67.281 72.086 75.349 78.337 81.913 84.364 91.175
56 47.481 57.393 60.820 64.985 67.917 70.688 74.125 76.568 83.810
57 51.942 62.442 66.163 70.755 74.038 77.179 81.136 83.991 92.689
58 57.509 74.142 80.285 88.066 93.773 99.357 106.571 111.909 128.952
59 52.962 66.435 71.206 77.092 81.298 85.323 90.390 94.044 105.170
60 54.678 71.643 77.121 83.504 87.813 91.741 96.417 99.604 108.373
62 54.678 71.643 77.121 83.504 87.813 91.741 96.417 99.604 108.373
63 50.278 58.147 60.911 64.306 66.720 69.020 71.902 73.970 80.215
65 51.226 60.935 63.777 66.896 68.879 70.597 72.526 73.765 76.836
66 51.794 66.505 71.662 77.984 82.474 86.746 92.092 95.924 107.459
67 47.335 57.786 61.485 66.048 69.308 72.426 76.350 79.180 87.792
68 51.794 66.505 71.662 77.984 82.474 86.746 92.092 95.924 107.459
69 83.108 95.066 96.596 97.643 98.054 98.291 98.459 98.526 98.604
70 50.744 64.424 69.240 75.161 79.377 83.399 88.444 92.069 103.038
71 43.454 52.439 55.527 59.268 61.892 64.363 67.419 69.583 75.957
72 47.335 57.786 61.485 66.048 69.308 72.426 76.350 79.180 87.792
73 47.335 57.786 61.485 66.048 69.308 72.426 76.350 79.180 87.792
74 74.480 85.596 87.438 88.891 89.552 89.983 90.334 90.496 90.729
77 53.832 68.572 74.090 81.140 86.355 91.495 98.190 103.187 119.390
78 51.444 58.674 61.199 64.287 66.476 68.554 71.148 73.004 78.567
79 52.590 58.189 59.385 60.475 61.049 61.472 61.869 62.081 62.464
80 53.224 66.118 70.639 76.184 80.123 83.872 88.564 91.928 102.060
81 50.278 58.147 60.911 64.306 66.720 69.020 71.902 73.970 80.215
82 63.480 82.156 87.727 93.910 97.887 101.366 105.315 107.881 114.366
83 51.244 65.079 70.214 76.738 81.538 86.247 92.348 96.877 111.417
85 51.244 65.079 70.214 76.738 81.538 86.247 92.348 96.877 111.417
86 56.218 67.330 70.618 74.249 76.573 78.597 80.884 82.363 86.069
87 57.509 74.142 80.285 88.066 93.773 99.357 106.571 111.909 128.952
88 53.224 66.118 70.639 76.184 80.123 83.872 88.564 91.928 102.060
89 47.335 57.786 61.485 66.048 69.308 72.426 76.350 79.180 87.792
90 57.259 70.066 74.266 79.209 82.577 85.673 89.394 91.955 99.120
91 51.386 63.970 68.176 73.183 76.636 79.841 83.737 86.449 94.197
92 56.783 71.312 76.693 83.523 88.542 93.460 99.826 104.545 119.664
94 50.665 59.532 62.736 66.738 69.634 72.434 76.003 78.609 86.723
95 52.590 58.189 59.385 60.475 61.049 61.472 61.869 62.081 62.464
96 73.051 77.766 78.115 78.295 78.347 78.371 78.383 78.387 78.390
97 63.480 82.156 87.727 93.910 97.887 101.366 105.315 107.881 114.366
98 51.226 60.935 63.777 66.896 68.879 70.597 72.526 73.765 76.836
99 53.832 68.572 74.090 81.140 86.355 91.495 98.190 103.187 119.390
100 47.481 57.393 60.820 64.985 67.917 70.688 74.125 76.568 83.810
102 56.827 70.463 75.237 81.084 85.234 89.180 94.113 97.646 108.267
103 52.962 66.435 71.206 77.092 81.298 85.323 90.390 94.044 105.170
104 52.590 58.189 59.385 60.475 61.049 61.472 61.869 62.081 62.464

AAiT - 194 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Station Rainfall Depths of ECMWF bias Correction 3-Day duration for the indicated frequency (Years)
No. 2 10 20 50 100 200 500 1000 10000
1 65.104 79.181 83.681 88.891 92.387 95.557 99.307 101.848 108.762
2 64.853 80.802 86.452 93.425 98.410 103.180 109.187 113.520 126.722
3 60.012 72.307 76.216 80.727 83.744 86.472 89.688 91.861 97.738
4 65.627 73.314 75.207 77.079 78.152 79.003 79.866 80.366 81.406
5 56.368 69.371 74.279 80.582 85.270 89.911 95.987 100.544 115.465
6 56.973 65.787 68.372 71.212 73.020 74.588 76.350 77.483 80.298
7 59.561 68.907 71.913 75.405 77.757 79.897 82.437 84.164 88.895
9 65.608 80.906 85.254 89.940 92.867 95.365 98.120 99.860 104.039
10 60.664 72.576 76.643 81.548 84.974 88.191 92.151 94.943 103.109
12 64.151 77.863 82.467 87.962 91.762 95.297 99.605 102.612 111.245
13 65.615 80.932 86.357 93.051 97.836 102.414 108.178 112.336 124.999
14 59.300 72.882 77.662 83.539 87.723 91.713 96.719 100.315 111.194
15 63.687 75.665 78.029 80.087 81.122 81.857 82.516 82.851 83.416
16 59.443 72.401 76.972 82.597 86.608 90.438 95.247 98.708 109.201
17 64.529 77.375 82.075 87.993 92.309 96.510 101.906 105.877 118.419
18 64.058 78.306 82.176 86.236 88.703 90.760 92.970 94.328 97.441
19 65.615 80.932 86.357 93.051 97.836 102.414 108.178 112.336 124.999
20 65.627 73.314 75.207 77.079 78.152 79.003 79.866 80.366 81.406
21 65.627 73.314 75.207 77.079 78.152 79.003 79.866 80.366 81.406
22 63.687 75.665 78.029 80.087 81.122 81.857 82.516 82.851 83.416
23 57.110 68.825 73.164 78.670 82.717 86.681 91.812 95.616 107.800
24 57.890 69.984 74.106 79.071 82.536 85.784 89.780 92.594 100.807
25 67.748 77.545 79.544 81.319 82.229 82.886 83.486 83.798 84.339
26 63.579 79.532 85.085 91.863 96.656 101.200 106.861 110.901 122.970
27 64.058 78.306 82.176 86.236 88.703 90.760 92.970 94.328 97.441
28 59.183 71.299 75.039 79.277 82.060 84.537 87.408 89.312 94.301
29 60.012 72.307 76.216 80.727 83.744 86.472 89.688 91.861 97.738
30 95.512 99.534 99.750 99.844 99.867 99.876 99.880 99.881 99.882
31 67.173 76.037 78.377 80.789 82.230 83.414 84.665 85.421 87.104
32 71.511 86.961 91.559 96.655 99.929 102.788 106.030 108.134 113.438
33 57.890 69.984 74.106 79.071 82.536 85.784 89.780 92.594 100.807
34 60.340 69.802 72.395 75.130 76.800 78.199 79.710 80.643 82.802
35 63.055 70.785 73.008 75.420 76.937 78.238 79.684 80.604 82.838
36 63.055 70.785 73.008 75.420 76.937 78.238 79.684 80.604 82.838
37 71.511 86.961 91.559 96.655 99.929 102.788 106.030 108.134 113.438
38 68.583 83.669 89.302 96.489 101.798 107.022 113.818 118.881 135.255
39 64.996 77.503 81.280 85.503 88.240 90.649 93.404 95.207 99.823
40 57.890 69.984 74.106 79.071 82.536 85.784 89.780 92.594 100.807
41 64.853 80.802 86.452 93.425 98.410 103.180 109.187 113.520 126.722
42 62.182 75.656 80.131 85.436 89.079 92.450 96.530 99.360 107.386
43 63.055 70.785 73.008 75.420 76.937 78.238 79.684 80.604 82.838
44 62.152 78.096 83.524 90.060 94.619 98.891 104.142 107.840 118.618
45 63.802 77.520 82.379 88.373 92.658 96.758 101.919 105.642 116.980

AAiT - 195 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Con'td
46 57.110 68.825 73.164 78.670 82.717 86.681 91.812 95.616 107.800
47 62.152 78.096 83.524 90.060 94.619 98.891 104.142 107.840 118.618
48 68.706 80.984 84.859 89.310 92.273 94.942 98.075 100.182 105.835
49 68.583 83.669 89.302 96.489 101.798 107.022 113.818 118.881 135.255
51 64.456 79.216 84.587 91.328 96.227 100.983 107.072 111.537 125.557
52 64.853 80.802 86.452 93.425 98.410 103.180 109.187 113.520 126.722
53 64.529 77.375 82.075 87.993 92.309 96.510 101.906 105.877 118.419
54 59.183 71.299 75.039 79.277 82.060 84.537 87.408 89.312 94.301
56 56.368 69.371 74.279 80.582 85.270 89.911 95.987 100.544 115.465
57 61.096 71.986 75.329 79.105 81.577 83.771 86.305 87.981 92.347
58 65.104 79.181 83.681 88.891 92.387 95.557 99.307 101.848 108.762
59 64.853 80.802 86.452 93.425 98.410 103.180 109.187 113.520 126.722
60 65.608 80.906 85.254 89.940 92.867 95.365 98.120 99.860 104.039
62 65.608 80.906 85.254 89.940 92.867 95.365 98.120 99.860 104.039
63 65.339 72.781 74.776 76.852 78.104 79.140 80.245 80.919 82.443
65 62.310 72.634 75.880 79.602 82.074 84.297 86.901 88.649 93.320
66 62.464 77.299 82.402 88.586 92.927 97.017 102.076 105.660 116.229
67 57.110 68.825 73.164 78.670 82.717 86.681 91.812 95.616 107.800
68 62.464 77.299 82.402 88.586 92.927 97.017 102.076 105.660 116.229
69 95.512 99.534 99.750 99.844 99.867 99.876 99.880 99.881 99.882
70 59.443 72.401 76.972 82.597 86.608 90.438 95.247 98.708 109.201
71 56.973 65.787 68.372 71.212 73.020 74.588 76.350 77.483 80.298
72 57.110 68.825 73.164 78.670 82.717 86.681 91.812 95.616 107.800
73 57.110 68.825 73.164 78.670 82.717 86.681 91.812 95.616 107.800
74 83.727 103.359 108.590 114.014 117.272 119.961 122.818 124.553 128.455
77 67.173 76.037 78.377 80.789 82.230 83.414 84.665 85.421 87.104
78 66.410 76.276 79.763 84.061 87.129 90.061 93.749 96.406 104.481
79 65.627 73.314 75.207 77.079 78.152 79.003 79.866 80.366 81.406
80 65.642 78.667 82.629 87.081 89.979 92.540 95.482 97.417 102.410
81 65.339 72.781 74.776 76.852 78.104 79.140 80.245 80.919 82.443
82 68.075 87.430 94.115 102.236 107.951 113.348 120.039 124.792 138.870
83 59.300 72.882 77.662 83.539 87.723 91.713 96.719 100.315 111.194
85 59.300 72.882 77.662 83.539 87.723 91.713 96.719 100.315 111.194
86 65.598 76.606 80.098 84.122 86.809 89.236 92.093 94.020 99.220
87 65.104 79.181 83.681 88.891 92.387 95.557 99.307 101.848 108.762
88 65.642 78.667 82.629 87.081 89.979 92.540 95.482 97.417 102.410
89 57.110 68.825 73.164 78.670 82.717 86.681 91.812 95.616 107.800
90 67.195 79.027 82.577 86.530 89.082 91.320 93.870 95.533 99.760
91 65.124 76.956 80.499 84.440 86.981 89.208 91.742 93.393 97.581
92 65.615 80.932 86.357 93.051 97.836 102.414 108.178 112.336 124.999
94 64.529 77.375 82.075 87.993 92.309 96.510 101.906 105.877 118.419
95 65.627 73.314 75.207 77.079 78.152 79.003 79.866 80.366 81.406
96 90.831 92.916 92.990 93.017 93.022 93.023 93.024 93.024 93.024
97 68.075 87.430 94.115 102.236 107.951 113.348 120.039 124.792 138.870
98 63.055 70.785 73.008 75.420 76.937 78.238 79.684 80.604 82.838
99 67.173 76.037 78.377 80.789 82.230 83.414 84.665 85.421 87.104
100 56.368 69.371 74.279 80.582 85.270 89.911 95.987 100.544 115.465
102 68.583 83.669 89.302 96.489 101.798 107.022 113.818 118.881 135.255
103 64.853 80.802 86.452 93.425 98.410 103.180 109.187 113.520 126.722
104 65.627 73.314 75.207 77.079 78.152 79.003 79.866 80.366 81.406

AAiT - 196 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Station Estimated Rainfall Depths of GLADS 1-day duration for the indicated frequency (Years)
No. 2 10 20 50 100 200 500 1000 10000
1 93.483 130.829 144.349 161.261 173.514 185.375 200.511 211.575 246.113
2 90.439 126.504 139.277 155.038 166.303 177.083 190.656 200.445 230.262
3 90.696 121.272 131.751 144.418 153.289 161.631 171.926 179.204 200.571
4 129.881 181.517 197.015 214.282 225.428 235.210 246.356 253.625 272.117
5 82.105 104.156 111.062 118.960 124.193 128.888 134.375 138.048 147.824
6 134.156 215.859 246.416 285.435 314.285 342.702 379.699 407.293 496.681
7 98.337 131.765 142.465 154.867 163.194 170.751 179.699 185.768 202.305
8 155.162 244.733 276.351 315.284 343.053 369.578 402.907 426.896 499.693
9 96.231 130.987 143.635 159.509 171.047 182.247 196.586 207.101 240.122
10 90.183 121.777 132.914 146.615 156.378 165.698 177.397 185.811 211.302
11 90.183 121.777 132.914 146.615 156.378 165.698 177.397 185.811 211.302
12 111.987 150.632 164.082 180.498 192.105 203.109 216.816 226.598 255.815
13 108.741 151.581 166.634 185.115 198.260 210.785 226.479 237.743 271.748
14 112.828 149.159 161.069 175.075 184.619 193.387 203.921 211.167 231.433
15 83.720 117.729 129.693 144.394 154.858 164.834 177.344 186.329 213.492
16 74.148 88.400 91.927 95.428 97.440 99.039 100.668 101.614 103.591
17 108.366 157.218 174.038 194.430 208.751 222.252 238.960 250.803 285.759
18 108.315 149.891 165.171 184.469 198.583 212.356 230.095 243.184 284.750
19 108.201 143.131 153.313 164.456 171.524 177.632 184.473 188.858 199.672
20 128.460 184.629 202.362 222.737 236.304 248.526 262.878 272.530 298.440
21 128.460 184.629 202.362 222.737 236.304 248.526 262.878 272.530 298.440
22 81.288 117.500 131.071 148.425 161.273 173.942 190.459 202.793 242.849
23 77.319 91.573 94.967 98.260 100.110 101.552 102.988 103.805 105.445
24 107.173 142.306 153.857 167.465 176.754 185.302 195.587 202.676 222.563
25 87.260 114.090 121.997 130.708 136.270 141.104 146.553 150.068 158.839
26 96.800 119.024 124.609 130.201 133.444 136.043 138.712 140.278 143.596
27 110.966 153.968 169.099 187.693 200.928 213.550 229.377 240.747 275.125
28 64.589 84.574 92.150 101.907 109.182 116.400 125.875 133.001 156.445
29 90.696 121.272 131.751 144.418 153.289 161.631 171.926 179.204 200.571
30 124.039 186.390 208.161 234.788 253.652 271.567 293.929 309.917 357.849
31 117.307 170.691 188.529 209.755 224.389 237.969 254.471 265.958 298.755
32 85.721 121.721 134.432 150.087 161.255 171.924 185.333 194.986 224.288
33 107.173 142.306 153.857 167.465 176.754 185.302 195.587 202.676 222.563
34 118.534 165.198 179.626 195.994 206.755 216.344 227.466 234.851 254.240
35 115.298 166.350 184.920 208.222 225.156 241.590 262.624 278.046 326.453
36 110.952 152.717 166.573 182.988 194.256 204.673 217.277 226.012 250.759
37 121.649 186.207 208.903 236.779 256.612 275.515 299.208 316.220 367.607
38 119.775 171.138 186.065 202.372 212.695 221.604 231.564 237.935 253.601
39 97.023 133.934 147.611 164.974 177.737 190.247 206.440 218.449 256.941
40 112.828 149.159 161.069 175.075 184.619 193.387 203.921 211.167 231.433
41 83.196 117.419 128.828 142.386 151.720 160.372 170.872 178.170 198.958
42 116.237 172.308 191.863 215.760 232.677 248.734 268.761 283.069 325.905
43 116.642 163.418 179.303 198.398 211.695 224.140 239.413 250.149 281.358
44 109.966 160.258 178.279 200.679 216.805 232.331 252.020 266.322 310.460
45 116.372 171.431 190.365 213.304 229.402 244.569 263.325 276.611 315.774
46 74.148 88.400 91.927 95.428 97.440 99.039 100.668 101.614 103.591
47 109.966 160.258 178.279 200.679 216.805 232.331 252.020 266.322 310.460
48 94.734 128.776 139.530 151.891 160.124 167.543 176.260 182.123 197.874
49 119.775 171.138 186.065 202.372 212.695 221.604 231.564 237.935 253.601
50 103.329 140.043 151.529 164.654 173.345 181.136 190.237 196.324 212.505
51 94.100 134.498 148.192 164.633 176.070 186.763 199.871 209.074 235.774
52 90.439 126.504 139.277 155.038 166.303 177.083 190.656 200.445 230.262

AAiT - 197 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
Con'td
53 108.429 156.673 173.748 194.807 209.852 224.243 242.354 255.411 295.148
54 64.589 84.574 92.150 101.907 109.182 116.400 125.875 133.001 156.445
55 89.306 127.760 141.424 158.320 170.421 182.021 196.655 207.231 239.565
56 82.105 104.156 111.062 118.960 124.193 128.888 134.375 138.048 147.824
57 101.839 133.641 143.348 154.273 161.399 167.707 174.966 179.749 192.134
58 98.009 137.150 150.141 165.536 176.106 185.880 197.710 205.911 229.155
59 90.439 126.504 139.277 155.038 166.303 177.083 190.656 200.445 230.262
60 120.047 164.234 179.034 196.673 208.852 220.169 233.942 243.542 271.029
61 120.047 164.234 179.034 196.673 208.852 220.169 233.942 243.542 271.029
62 119.748 168.037 185.065 206.020 220.957 235.217 253.123 266.003 305.046
63 119.872 161.370 171.129 180.527 185.767 189.828 193.842 196.106 200.604
64 144.550 215.939 241.246 272.491 294.835 316.227 343.175 362.622 421.918
65 128.460 184.629 202.362 222.737 236.304 248.526 262.878 272.530 298.440
66 83.004 116.819 129.332 145.204 156.862 168.280 183.048 193.990 229.013
67 90.571 111.715 117.691 124.112 128.109 131.510 135.250 137.603 143.224
68 90.183 121.777 132.914 146.615 156.378 165.698 177.397 185.811 211.302
69 124.039 186.390 208.161 234.788 253.652 271.567 293.929 309.917 357.849
70 115.966 157.019 170.723 187.022 198.252 208.668 221.320 230.120 255.224
71 92.796 132.843 146.095 161.772 172.516 182.436 194.420 202.713 226.144
72 80.016 108.602 118.876 131.671 140.900 149.800 161.107 169.336 194.819
73 80.016 108.602 118.876 131.671 140.900 149.800 161.107 169.336 194.819
74 143.464 223.100 251.314 286.134 311.027 334.850 364.851 386.493 452.438
75 151.684 235.763 264.334 298.691 322.625 345.033 372.544 391.890 448.165
76 85.792 124.581 138.318 155.266 167.380 178.970 193.562 204.086 236.137
77 116.237 172.308 191.863 215.760 232.677 248.734 268.761 283.069 325.905
78 149.041 205.721 219.546 233.149 240.900 247.018 253.194 256.754 264.081
79 129.881 181.517 197.015 214.282 225.428 235.210 246.356 253.625 272.117
80 92.532 133.323 148.579 168.060 182.463 196.651 215.121 228.898 273.526
81 100.828 148.478 164.549 183.783 197.121 209.559 224.760 235.400 266.096
82 122.258 178.551 198.422 222.889 240.341 257.010 277.955 293.030 338.776
83 103.710 143.484 158.007 176.273 189.577 202.516 219.113 231.310 269.759
84 155.162 244.733 276.351 315.284 343.053 369.578 402.907 426.896 499.693
85 104.446 145.791 160.520 178.762 191.848 204.409 220.280 231.769 266.993
86 122.587 152.428 160.107 167.907 172.495 176.216 180.090 182.395 187.398
87 95.531 133.022 145.249 159.584 169.322 178.244 188.930 196.259 216.640
88 122.157 168.129 183.011 200.375 212.115 222.830 235.604 244.326 268.380
89 86.153 106.319 111.881 117.769 121.380 124.414 127.703 129.742 134.491
90 112.577 145.658 155.382 166.078 172.896 178.815 185.476 189.767 200.442
91 99.304 138.977 151.585 166.130 175.854 184.644 195.007 202.004 220.922
92 104.413 144.372 157.836 173.941 185.101 195.503 208.208 217.097 242.710
93 143.145 213.169 238.019 268.722 290.693 311.740 338.272 357.432 415.923
94 108.429 156.673 173.748 194.807 209.852 224.243 242.354 255.411 295.148
95 123.317 173.778 189.740 208.102 220.342 231.380 244.357 253.094 276.597
96 138.551 206.778 230.458 259.311 279.677 298.957 322.935 340.016 390.882
97 119.436 172.655 190.512 211.817 226.545 240.241 256.929 268.574 301.979
98 101.636 146.813 161.926 179.922 192.338 203.866 217.885 227.650 255.566
99 116.237 172.308 191.863 215.760 232.677 248.734 268.761 283.069 325.905
100 87.711 118.651 129.609 143.130 152.794 162.042 173.685 182.083 207.662
101 90.183 121.777 132.914 146.615 156.378 165.698 177.397 185.811 211.302
102 106.990 155.526 170.933 188.697 200.565 211.286 223.920 232.443 255.462
103 106.990 155.526 170.933 188.697 200.565 211.286 223.920 232.443 255.462
104 128.460 184.629 202.362 222.737 236.304 248.526 262.878 272.530 298.440

AAiT - 198 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Station Estimated Rainfall Depths of GLADS 2-day duration for the indicated frequency (Years)
No. 2 10 20 50 100 200 500 1000 10000
1 110.373 147.275 159.903 175.156 185.828 195.857 208.223 216.956 242.559
2 112.047 151.509 165.674 183.300 196.003 208.246 223.787 235.089 270.037
3 112.490 144.815 154.690 165.810 173.067 179.494 186.894 191.773 204.417
4 169.850 238.913 259.119 281.284 295.374 307.576 321.271 330.068 351.851
5 105.086 140.709 153.323 168.887 180.010 190.653 204.051 213.714 243.141
6 168.567 272.315 310.475 358.693 393.977 428.423 472.812 505.579 609.736
7 126.966 170.152 184.318 200.984 212.344 222.784 235.331 243.966 268.130
9 121.718 163.364 177.517 194.535 206.391 217.492 231.120 240.704 268.583
10 112.331 146.919 158.871 173.394 183.618 193.274 205.251 213.761 238.978
12 133.862 176.876 191.936 210.385 223.477 235.928 251.495 262.644 296.167
13 131.237 179.286 195.907 216.115 230.349 243.801 260.495 272.363 307.572
14 135.301 174.486 186.634 200.438 209.527 217.639 227.061 233.328 249.828
15 104.245 140.587 152.396 166.208 175.569 184.129 194.358 201.358 220.746
16 94.166 123.469 132.991 144.128 151.676 158.579 166.827 172.472 188.105
17 141.926 210.879 235.775 266.869 289.361 311.104 338.806 359.023 421.954
18 138.575 186.778 203.060 222.567 236.107 248.743 264.201 275.032 306.330
19 136.691 168.458 176.149 183.684 187.959 191.320 194.699 196.639 200.601
20 166.572 242.123 265.452 291.897 309.268 324.737 342.664 354.559 385.744
21 166.572 242.123 265.452 291.897 309.268 324.737 342.664 354.559 385.744
22 104.379 132.309 140.001 148.136 153.121 157.305 161.838 164.645 171.174
23 97.628 129.106 139.775 152.584 161.492 169.821 180.031 187.199 207.990
24 129.465 170.687 183.988 199.478 209.931 219.455 230.788 238.510 259.736
25 116.739 155.565 167.045 179.717 187.825 194.884 202.856 208.009 220.911
26 126.242 160.285 169.715 179.724 185.880 191.063 196.696 200.198 208.391
27 139.942 192.612 210.780 232.831 248.336 262.967 281.095 293.959 332.007
28 86.868 113.140 122.415 133.836 141.983 149.765 159.544 166.583 187.947
29 112.490 144.815 154.690 165.810 173.067 179.494 186.894 191.773 204.417
30 162.898 249.588 279.590 316.080 341.791 366.094 396.266 417.722 481.413
31 144.813 217.710 244.906 279.580 305.179 330.360 363.094 387.471 466.221
32 109.130 157.252 174.278 195.274 210.270 224.612 242.658 255.665 295.237
33 129.465 170.687 183.988 199.478 209.931 219.455 230.788 238.510 259.736
34 143.773 201.634 219.977 241.108 255.213 267.947 282.940 293.047 320.303
35 157.045 228.827 254.949 287.735 311.566 334.701 364.318 386.038 454.247
36 150.615 212.767 233.619 258.497 275.692 291.683 311.165 324.759 363.750
37 149.017 227.289 256.528 293.836 321.401 348.534 383.834 410.142 495.253
38 145.961 223.479 252.355 289.136 316.263 342.927 377.557 403.321 486.407
39 115.747 152.766 165.538 181.040 191.941 202.229 214.976 224.022 250.783
40 135.301 174.486 186.634 200.438 209.527 217.639 227.061 233.328 249.828
41 106.212 150.972 166.476 185.345 198.646 211.225 226.851 237.968 271.002
42 151.700 220.116 242.237 268.032 285.460 301.357 320.296 333.217 368.813
43 159.475 227.098 250.163 277.963 297.374 315.583 337.988 353.780 399.905
44 131.092 181.698 198.552 218.566 232.338 245.095 260.567 271.314 301.892
45 137.627 201.191 223.709 251.498 271.362 290.373 314.311 331.579 384.188

AAiT - 199 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Con'td
46 94.166 123.469 132.991 144.128 151.676 158.579 166.827 172.472 188.105
47 131.092 181.698 198.552 218.566 232.338 245.095 260.567 271.314 301.892
48 124.249 173.222 190.186 210.829 225.382 239.145 256.240 268.403 304.543
49 145.961 223.479 252.355 289.136 316.263 342.927 377.557 403.321 486.407
51 116.128 162.271 177.560 195.660 208.075 219.545 233.413 243.016 270.188
52 112.047 151.509 165.674 183.300 196.003 208.246 223.787 235.089 270.037
53 145.087 213.846 238.708 269.787 292.288 314.057 341.815 362.092 425.311
54 86.868 113.140 122.415 133.836 141.983 149.765 159.544 166.583 187.947
56 105.086 140.709 153.323 168.887 180.010 190.653 204.051 213.714 243.141
57 127.317 160.897 170.326 180.414 186.669 191.972 197.781 201.421 210.058
58 114.464 151.585 163.077 176.124 184.707 192.361 201.244 207.147 222.666
59 112.047 151.509 165.674 183.300 196.003 208.246 223.787 235.089 270.037
60 147.266 200.560 220.404 245.671 264.302 282.609 306.379 324.058 381.040
62 149.176 205.799 225.702 250.146 267.535 284.109 304.880 319.791 364.830
63 145.138 218.363 244.227 276.087 298.821 320.543 347.848 367.509 427.213
65 166.572 242.123 265.452 291.897 309.268 324.737 342.664 354.559 385.744
66 104.927 141.636 155.249 172.541 185.259 197.730 213.882 225.866 264.318
67 115.807 152.678 164.337 177.747 186.685 194.743 204.216 210.592 227.739
68 112.331 146.919 158.871 173.394 183.618 193.274 205.251 213.761 238.978
69 162.898 249.588 279.590 316.080 341.791 366.094 396.266 417.722 481.413
70 140.936 185.242 199.102 214.938 225.423 234.823 245.802 253.144 272.660
71 116.409 162.962 177.598 194.373 205.514 215.529 227.261 235.131 256.163
72 102.187 135.119 145.655 157.861 166.055 173.488 182.287 188.252 204.498
73 102.187 135.119 145.655 157.861 166.055 173.488 182.287 188.252 204.498
74 178.786 279.115 313.610 355.394 384.715 412.336 446.490 470.680 541.966
77 151.700 220.116 242.237 268.032 285.460 301.357 320.296 333.217 368.813
78 176.236 273.066 307.322 349.563 379.733 408.585 444.888 471.054 550.653
79 169.850 238.913 259.119 281.284 295.374 307.576 321.271 330.068 351.851
80 118.369 168.109 184.806 204.732 218.510 231.326 246.946 257.848 289.137
81 128.616 190.738 213.509 242.221 263.185 283.615 309.886 329.238 390.512
82 144.925 206.627 228.322 254.970 273.931 292.005 314.661 330.928 380.076
83 124.451 165.503 179.490 196.335 208.089 219.108 232.658 242.202 270.042
85 124.106 169.168 185.255 205.204 219.533 233.303 250.724 263.350 302.155
86 152.966 190.498 201.071 212.409 219.452 225.434 232.000 236.124 245.940
87 110.277 148.761 161.457 176.448 186.704 196.157 207.558 215.432 237.607
88 150.537 206.436 224.856 246.590 261.446 275.133 291.626 303.010 335.025
89 109.030 147.354 160.600 176.698 188.030 198.735 212.015 221.450 249.418
90 143.156 181.800 193.137 205.594 213.526 220.404 228.137 233.112 245.466
91 121.566 164.335 176.877 190.654 199.423 207.026 215.571 221.068 234.710
92 131.758 170.244 181.137 192.849 200.146 206.358 213.195 217.500 227.798
94 145.087 213.846 238.708 269.787 292.288 314.057 341.815 362.092 425.311
95 136.238 192.992 211.968 234.559 250.141 264.606 282.192 294.438 329.430
96 171.665 253.536 282.022 316.784 341.357 364.652 393.665 414.365 476.176
97 142.319 207.228 230.711 260.077 281.345 301.926 328.180 347.364 407.212
98 130.624 192.730 213.269 237.554 254.192 269.548 288.093 300.920 337.135
99 151.700 220.116 242.237 268.032 285.460 301.357 320.296 333.217 368.813
100 107.733 147.374 161.874 180.131 193.444 206.403 223.045 235.288 273.959
102 134.089 201.656 225.895 256.046 277.767 298.694 325.251 344.555 404.209
103 134.089 201.656 225.895 256.046 277.767 298.694 325.251 344.555 404.209
104 166.572 242.123 265.452 291.897 309.268 324.737 342.664 354.559 385.744

AAiT - 200 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Station Estimated Rainfall Depths of GLADS 3-day duration for the indicated frequency (Years)
No. 2 10 20 50 100 200 500 1000 10000
1 123.930 163.380 176.949 193.390 204.929 215.802 229.250 238.777 266.865
2 127.577 168.981 182.602 198.657 209.621 219.713 231.863 240.240 263.759
3 120.324 156.633 170.334 187.928 201.009 213.954 230.902 243.611 285.203
4 179.428 239.890 256.476 273.977 284.677 293.642 303.329 309.316 323.185
5 123.302 154.169 163.104 172.843 178.993 184.290 190.198 193.968 203.200
6 181.030 289.120 329.475 380.949 418.966 456.378 505.032 541.281 658.476
7 137.963 181.469 195.610 212.152 223.365 233.620 245.877 254.266 277.508
9 135.914 185.268 202.750 224.323 239.743 254.500 273.081 286.484 327.313
10 123.613 158.177 169.557 182.978 192.147 200.591 210.762 217.778 237.493
12 148.958 199.299 217.937 241.585 258.959 275.981 298.003 314.326 366.597
13 145.541 198.152 216.855 239.986 256.557 272.444 292.493 306.985 351.313
14 146.325 195.337 213.846 237.627 255.316 272.830 295.769 312.981 369.358
15 115.175 159.467 175.704 196.177 211.126 225.694 244.429 258.230 301.931
16 112.816 134.436 139.653 144.755 147.644 149.912 152.188 153.491 156.146
17 148.776 212.560 235.383 263.727 284.115 303.729 328.582 346.619 402.196
18 148.338 206.487 227.085 252.505 270.675 288.063 309.959 325.753 373.869
19 141.141 187.619 202.433 219.556 231.024 241.406 253.669 261.964 284.462
20 175.520 249.176 272.594 299.618 317.689 334.028 353.298 366.311 401.513
21 175.520 249.176 272.594 299.618 317.689 334.028 353.298 366.311 401.513
22 111.054 154.888 171.495 192.874 208.809 224.614 245.355 260.948 312.213
23 114.142 140.184 147.271 154.714 159.243 163.022 167.086 169.586 175.331
24 140.578 188.622 206.447 229.094 245.754 262.095 283.264 298.975 349.408
25 121.225 160.379 172.561 186.434 195.590 203.774 213.303 219.654 236.440
26 128.819 163.501 173.663 184.822 191.921 198.074 204.986 209.429 220.451
27 147.599 209.290 232.410 261.974 283.861 305.444 333.581 354.593 422.828
28 102.959 130.050 138.807 149.015 155.911 162.200 169.691 174.801 188.873
29 120.324 156.633 170.334 187.928 201.009 213.954 230.902 243.611 285.203
30 178.117 269.489 298.995 333.373 356.583 377.739 402.924 420.094 467.327
31 148.908 207.665 228.479 254.165 272.526 290.096 312.221 328.181 376.801
32 123.179 177.046 196.131 219.686 236.526 252.643 272.940 287.582 332.201
33 140.578 188.622 206.447 229.094 245.754 262.095 283.264 298.975 349.408
34 159.924 225.384 246.257 270.388 286.553 301.191 318.485 330.185 361.932
35 170.973 234.910 255.348 279.012 294.889 309.284 326.317 337.857 369.258
36 160.427 215.247 232.130 251.238 263.768 274.912 287.806 296.347 318.677
37 158.457 244.491 276.792 318.141 348.788 379.037 418.514 448.028 544.065
38 154.343 224.771 249.507 279.871 301.461 322.029 347.794 366.281 422.070
39 130.668 169.937 183.552 200.131 211.825 222.889 236.641 246.431 275.551
40 146.325 195.337 213.846 237.627 255.316 272.830 295.769 312.981 369.358
41 112.278 154.221 168.938 186.990 199.818 212.032 227.323 238.287 271.336
42 158.543 221.665 242.178 266.172 282.435 297.308 315.081 327.244 360.937
43 168.936 224.283 240.976 259.628 271.706 282.330 294.472 302.414 322.722
44 146.097 208.598 231.692 260.955 282.428 303.443 330.598 350.700 414.925
45 154.122 223.511 248.613 280.003 302.735 324.734 352.793 373.297 437.256

AAiT - 201 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Con'td
46 112.816 134.436 139.653 144.755 147.644 149.912 152.188 153.491 156.146
47 146.097 208.598 231.692 260.955 282.428 303.443 330.598 350.700 414.925
48 127.523 162.657 173.610 186.098 194.350 201.734 210.341 216.085 231.297
49 154.343 224.771 249.507 279.871 301.461 322.029 347.794 366.281 422.070
51 123.690 168.511 183.354 200.920 212.964 224.088 237.534 246.842 273.161
52 127.577 168.981 182.602 198.657 209.621 219.713 231.863 240.240 263.759
53 156.541 214.945 234.023 256.411 271.632 285.590 302.322 313.809 345.808
54 102.959 130.050 138.807 149.015 155.911 162.200 169.691 174.801 188.873
56 123.302 154.169 163.104 172.843 178.993 184.290 190.198 193.968 203.200
57 139.446 185.088 200.687 219.513 232.675 245.034 260.262 271.008 302.468
58 129.080 175.158 190.877 209.824 223.055 235.467 250.742 261.509 292.963
59 127.577 168.981 182.602 198.657 209.621 219.713 231.863 240.240 263.759
60 162.430 228.413 252.506 282.808 304.881 326.346 353.882 374.118 437.907
62 161.259 230.799 256.636 289.493 313.687 337.435 368.228 391.101 464.646
63 155.742 222.348 243.842 268.876 285.769 301.163 319.481 331.964 366.281
65 175.520 249.176 272.594 299.618 317.689 334.028 353.298 366.311 401.513
66 120.084 159.607 172.905 188.797 199.801 210.050 222.557 231.299 256.453
67 123.282 156.050 166.374 178.222 186.101 193.190 201.507 207.092 222.053
68 123.613 158.177 169.557 182.978 192.147 200.591 210.762 217.778 237.493
69 178.117 269.489 298.995 333.373 356.583 377.739 402.924 420.094 467.327
70 155.330 208.815 227.502 250.363 266.566 281.958 301.177 314.923 356.159
71 122.048 169.292 184.902 203.351 215.983 227.637 241.705 251.430 278.861
72 118.304 156.570 169.315 184.449 194.863 204.509 216.209 224.336 247.459
73 118.304 156.570 169.315 184.449 194.863 204.509 216.209 224.336 247.459
74 190.507 294.263 330.853 375.884 407.983 438.630 477.115 504.800 588.724
77 158.543 221.665 242.178 266.172 282.435 297.308 315.081 327.244 360.937
78 186.313 283.773 317.610 358.846 387.957 415.522 449.809 474.238 547.012
79 179.428 239.890 256.476 273.977 284.677 293.642 303.329 309.316 323.185
80 127.192 177.624 195.492 217.545 233.310 248.398 267.399 281.107 322.875
81 138.854 194.288 212.823 234.889 250.110 264.239 281.416 293.378 327.559
82 164.340 237.891 263.640 295.184 317.568 338.855 365.470 384.529 441.836
83 138.224 183.968 200.062 219.839 233.915 247.338 264.169 276.259 312.811
85 140.040 187.683 204.562 225.395 240.288 254.542 272.492 285.441 324.899
86 161.147 199.910 211.020 223.055 230.611 237.084 244.263 248.817 259.853
87 124.672 164.051 176.740 191.505 201.461 210.525 221.302 228.639 248.778
88 148.509 202.491 221.616 245.219 262.093 278.242 298.579 313.250 357.953
89 119.805 149.534 158.264 167.863 173.978 179.285 185.253 189.096 198.648
90 150.816 187.990 198.763 210.513 217.939 224.338 231.481 236.042 247.226
91 138.663 197.938 217.066 239.342 254.375 268.073 284.372 295.479 326.011
92 138.819 187.235 204.347 225.436 240.490 254.880 272.975 286.009 325.622
94 156.541 214.945 234.023 256.411 271.632 285.590 302.322 313.809 345.808
95 171.936 237.718 257.857 280.565 295.403 308.558 323.725 333.736 359.741
96 183.678 280.848 316.383 361.121 393.740 425.488 466.253 496.239 590.930
97 162.440 235.822 260.468 289.891 310.240 329.175 352.257 368.373 414.653
98 138.888 199.129 219.848 244.951 262.569 279.170 299.700 314.244 357.120
99 158.543 221.665 242.178 266.172 282.435 297.308 315.081 327.244 360.937
100 125.782 167.305 182.064 200.317 213.391 225.926 241.743 253.175 288.138
102 137.744 203.669 228.740 261.094 285.267 309.291 340.894 364.708 443.346
103 137.744 203.669 228.740 261.094 285.267 309.291 340.894 364.708 443.346
104 175.520 249.176 272.594 299.618 317.689 334.028 353.298 366.311 401.513

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

APPENDIX F: Frequency Factor K Values for in situ and Reanalysis

Data
Frequency factor (K) for 1-day duration Frequency factor (K) for 2-day duration
ECMWF In- ECMWF
Station In-situ ECMWF Corr. GLADS Station situ ECMWF Corr. GLADS
No. K K K K No. K K K K
1 1.757 3.550 2.650 3.770 1 2.352 4.721 3.010 2.784
2 2.429 2.953 3.301 3.545 2 2.090 2.866 3.672 3.282
3 4.987 3.452 3.461 3.226 3 3.465 4.397 2.840 2.127
4 2.357 1.832 1.778 5.850 4 2.750 2.055 2.736 5.771
5 8.314 3.841 3.630 2.418 5 2.439 3.677 2.447 4.057
6 3.348 2.361 2.265 2.602 6 2.947 4.890 2.224 2.449
7 3.424 3.309 2.942 2.547 7 2.121 4.572 4.451 2.698
8 2.011 2.580 2.816 4.105 9 3.115 8.523 4.764 2.682
9 4.301 8.008 4.308 3.302 10 1.943 3.207 3.535 3.092
10 4.336 3.139 2.482 3.210 12 4.399 3.334 3.185 3.298
11 2.632 3.139 2.482 3.210 13 2.257 3.428 3.287 3.416
12 7.755 3.918 2.977 3.268 14 3.663 2.913 3.302 2.338
13 2.253 4.186 3.806 2.749 15 3.333 2.750 8.859 2.410
14 4.042 3.356 3.576 2.918 16 3.464 4.185 3.610 2.738
15 2.464 2.456 9.187 3.696 17 2.650 2.389 2.993 2.859
16 3.093 4.324 4.141 1.754 18 5.708 7.548 7.160 4.500
17 3.480 5.059 5.700 2.585 19 2.815 3.428 3.287 2.262
18 4.010 7.093 6.187 3.635 20 2.554 2.055 2.736 5.189
19 3.210 4.186 3.806 2.850 21 2.757 2.055 2.736 5.189
20 1.646 1.832 1.778 5.232 22 4.852 2.750 8.859 1.972
21 1.786 1.832 1.778 5.232 23 2.916 4.644 3.683 2.859
22 4.682 2.456 9.187 3.056 24 5.369 2.865 2.981 2.391
23 2.168 3.611 3.261 1.877 25 2.496 4.353 6.449 2.120
24 4.796 4.132 3.902 2.642 26 7.571 2.419 4.405 2.045
25 4.352 5.075 7.627 2.170 27 4.110 7.548 7.160 3.989
26 9.851 2.486 5.315 2.079 28 2.952 3.636 2.735 4.295
27 3.590 7.093 6.187 2.662 29 2.123 4.397 2.840 2.127
28 2.153 2.863 3.013 3.203 30 2.626 5.264 7.271 4.070
29 2.168 3.452 3.461 3.226 31 2.282 2.884 3.572 3.253
30 2.546 6.067 6.007 4.251 32 2.959 4.186 5.147 2.927
31 2.827 2.354 5.975 2.804 33 6.480 2.865 2.981 2.391
32 2.834 4.526 4.873 3.315 34 3.959 3.471 3.275 2.846
33 4.865 4.132 3.902 2.642 35 2.721 2.098 2.439 3.164
34 4.184 3.805 2.394 2.311 36 8.326 2.098 2.439 2.826
35 3.532 3.554 1.663 3.089 37 2.777 4.186 5.147 2.994
36 10.555 3.554 1.663 2.882 38 3.544 2.462 3.299 3.659
37 4.533 4.526 4.873 3.970 39 2.301 2.935 3.405 2.707
38 3.502 2.109 3.079 5.810 40 2.260 2.865 2.981 2.338

AAiT - 203 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
Frequency factor (K) for 1-day duration Frequency factor (K) for 2-day duration
Station ECMWF Station ECMWF
In-situ ECMWF GLADS In-situ ECMWF GLADS
No. Corr. No. Corr.
K K K K K K K K
39 2.747 2.875 3.156 3.845 41 2.694 2.866 3.672 3.067
40 2.489 4.132 3.902 2.918 42 7.397 6.555 4.838 4.882
41 3.211 2.953 3.301 4.964 43 3.018 2.098 2.439 2.752
42 6.174 6.019 4.164 4.459 44 4.178 4.515 3.196 2.128
43 3.128 3.554 1.663 2.771 45 2.696 4.713 3.376 3.981
44 3.362 3.45 3.951 3.038 46 1.99 4.644 3.683 2.738
45 2.977 5.834 3.935 2.842 47 2.555 4.515 3.196 2.128
46 2.716 3.611 3.261 1.754 48 3.369 2.805 2.339 3.352
47 3.431 3.45 3.951 3.038 49 2.958 2.462 3.299 3.659
48 2.634 1.895 3.8 3.142 51 2.656 6.095 2.735 2.689
49 3.429 2.109 3.079 5.81 52 2.344 2.866 3.672 3.282
50 2.092 1.843 3.183 2.243 53 2.169 2.389 2.993 3.003
51 3.037 2.369 2.361 2.882 54 4.777 3.636 2.735 4.295
52 3.364 2.953 3.301 3.545 56 2.503 3.677 2.447 4.057
53 2.617 5.059 5.7 2.87 57 2.362 4.015 2.904 1.823
54 3.307 2.863 3.013 3.203 58 3.467 4.721 3.01 1.959
55 1.16 2.369 2.361 3.003 59 2.544 2.866 3.672 3.282
56 6.23 3.841 3.63 2.418 60 1.953 8.523 4.764 3.012
57 1.913 3.433 4.071 2.597 62 3.053 8.523 4.764 3.685
58 4.75 3.55 2.65 2.501 63 2.027 3.429 3.172 4.235
59 2.744 2.953 3.301 3.545 65 2.834 6.152 5.412 5.189
60 2.696 8.008 4.308 2.936 66 2.586 4.117 3.415 3.739
61 3.115 8.008 4.308 2.936 67 2.377 4.644 3.683 2.292
62 2.826 8.008 4.308 2.901 68 6.187 4.117 3.415 3.092
63 4.908 2.862 3.1 6.558 69 2.006 5.264 7.271 4.07
64 3.616 6.055 7.426 2.469 70 2.851 4.185 3.61 2.215
65 3.921 6.146 5.991 5.232 71 2.273 6.138 2.224 2.533
66 2.727 5.046 3.186 2.598 72 3.322 4.644 3.683 2.744
67 2.376 3.611 3.261 2.405 73 2.498 4.644 3.683 2.744
68 7.248 5.046 3.186 3.21 74 2.661 5.945 7.55 4.261
69 2.293 6.067 6.007 4.251 77 3.215 2.884 3.572 4.882
70 2.763 4.324 4.141 2.636 78 6.706 2.98 2.592 4.078
71 2.715 2.361 2.265 2.753 79 2.173 2.055 2.736 5.771
72 2.586 3.611 3.261 2.76 80 4.287 2.826 4.263 4.813
73 2.705 3.611 3.261 2.76 81 3.024 3.429 3.172 3.33
74 2.708 7.998 6.67 3.715 82 3.329 2.089 5.667 2.849
75 2.799 5.691 7.926 4.41 83 4.754 2.913 3.302 3.204
76 4.005 2.367 8.494 3.264 85 2.844 2.913 3.302 3.329
77 2.028 2.354 5.975 4.459 86 1.818 2.032 2.263 2.615
78 2.403 2.44 2.991 6.367 87 2.521 4.721 3.01 2.32
79 2.487 1.832 1.778 5.85 88 7.574 2.826 4.263 2.745
80 4.609 2.861 6.622 3.267 89 5.357 4.644 3.683 2.514
81 2.531 2.862 3.1 4.736 90 4.103 3.362 2.341 2.963
82 4.115 3.052 7.2 4.185 91 2.208 4.311 2.18 2.146
83 3.952 3.356 3.576 3.479 92 2.281 3.428 3.287 2.973

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Frequency factor (K) for 1-day duration Frequency factor (K) for 2-day duration
Station ECMWF Station ECMWF
In-situ ECMWF GLADS In-situ ECMWF GLADS
No. Corr. No. Corr.
K K K K K K K K
83 3.952 3.356 3.576 3.479 92 2.281 3.428 3.287 2.973
84 4.811 2.58 2.816 4.105 94 6.141 2.389 2.993 3.003
85 3.036 3.356 3.576 3.37 95 2.281 2.055 2.736 2.367
86 2.17 2.609 3.085 1.917 96 2.485 5.378 9.577 3.086
87 2.438 3.55 2.65 2.513 97 1.147 2.089 5.667 3.073
88 3.938 2.861 6.622 2.361 98 2.757 6.152 5.412 3.557
89 3.357 3.611 3.261 2.303 99 1.291 2.884 3.572 4.882
90 3.357 3.466 2.841 2.309 100 2.064 3.677 2.447 2.894
91 1.763 2.742 3.887 2.542 102 3.245 2.462 3.299 3.246
92 2.661 4.186 3.806 2.79 103 4.962 2.866 3.672 3.246
93 2.708 6.055 7.426 2.65 104 2.683 2.055 2.736 5.189
94 4.087 5.059 5.7 2.87
95 2.344 1.832 1.778 5.708
96 5.956 5.691 7.926 2.483
97 3.35 3.052 7.2 4.956
98 2.213 6.146 5.991 3.618
99 6.435 2.354 5.975 4.459
100 2.7 3.841 3.63 2.82
101 5.457 2.109 3.079 3.21
102 3.946 2.109 3.079 5.273
103 2.395 1.832 3.301 5.273
104 4.172 2.953 1.778 5.232

Frequency factor (K) for 3-day duration Frequency factor (K) for 3-day duration
ECMWF ECMWF
Station In-situ ECMWF GLADS Station In-situ ECMWF GLADS
Corr. Corr.
No. No.
K K K K K K K K
1 2.828 5.064 2.735 5.113 51 2.684 5.118 2.595 2.587
2 1.61 2.985 2.733 2.488 52 2.682 2.985 2.733 2.488
3 2.515 4.592 2.876 3.943 53 3.334 3.624 3.958 2.958
4 2.388 2.439 3.049 6.008 54 4.28 3.483 2.308 2.256
5 2.203 3.273 3.211 1.95 56 2.737 3.273 3.211 1.95
6 2.625 4.528 2.067 2.478 57 1.97 2.54 5.634 2.472
7 3.003 3.61 2.958 2.379 58 3.359 5.064 2.735 2.932
9 3.575 8.432 5.348 3.091 59 2.555 2.985 2.733 2.488
10 3.1 2.615 3.656 2.392 60 1.971 8.432 5.348 2.836
12 1.486 3.048 2.741 3.494 62 2.476 8.432 5.348 2.632
13 2.386 3.75 3.269 2.965 63 2.618 3.59 2.244 5.089
14 2.348 3.161 3.051 3.306 65 3.084 7.158 5.726 5.187
15 4.554 2.577 7.201 3.763 66 2.388 3.884 4.073 2.835
16 3.22 3.899 3.344 1.635 67 2.363 3.115 2.717 2.387

AAiT - 205 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Frequency factor (K) for 3-day duration Frequency factor (K) for 3-day duration
Station ECMWF Station ECMWF
In-situ ECMWF GLADS In-situ ECMWF GLADS
No. Corr. No. Corr.
17 3.19 3.624 3.958 2.856 68 9.002 3.884 4.073 2.392
18 5.719 7.023 6.379 3.365 69 1.862 5.79 10.762 3.229
19 2.086 3.75 3.269 3.188 70 2.929 3.899 3.344 2.731
20 2.446 2.439 3.049 5.187 71 2.012 4.528 2.067 2.444
21 2.571 2.439 3.049 5.187 72 2.665 3.115 2.717 2.671
22 2.979 2.577 7.201 4.211 73 2.288 3.115 2.717 2.671
23 1.794 3.115 2.717 2.026 74 2.607 5.857 5.54 3.833
24 5.357 2.81 2.765 2.805 77 3.963 2.232 2.853 5.201
25 2.209 2.918 6.953 2.391 78 8.187 3.753 4.08 4.348
26 6.666 2.027 3.628 2.302 79 2.616 2.439 3.049 6.008
27 4.205 7.023 6.379 2.618 80 2.851 2.67 2.816 3.214
28 2.933 3.483 2.308 2.256 81 2.633 3.59 2.244 4.637
29 1.919 4.592 2.876 3.943 82 2.683 3.286 5.033 4.243
30 2.438 5.79 10.762 3.229 83 3.974 3.161 3.051 4.096
31 2.508 2.165 2.853 3.917 85 2.951 3.161 3.051 3.973
32 2.898 4.646 5.276 3.432 86 2.34 2.013 2.733 1.965
33 4.656 2.81 2.765 2.805 87 3.47 5.064 2.735 3.302
34 4.875 2.549 2.31 2.136 88 6.127 2.67 2.816 3.3
35 2.814 2.426 2.327 2.877 89 3.08 3.115 2.717 2.046
36 7.979 2.423 2.327 2.783 90 2.825 2.391 1.985 2.173
37 2.302 4.646 5.276 3.222 91 1.123 4.032 2.323 2.196
38 3.921 2.766 3.255 4.33 92 2.582 3.75 3.269 3.183
39 1.831 4.313 2.344 4.938 94 6.533 3.624 3.958 2.958
40 2.27 2.81 2.765 3.306 95 2.828 2.439 3.049 5.237
41 3.774 2.985 2.733 3.445 96 1.968 6.205 3.172 2.404
42 6.876 6.462 5.113 5.201 97 2.162 3.286 5.033 4.565
43 3.59 2.426 2.327 2.788 98 2.571 7.158 2.327 3.499
44 4.183 4.965 2.545 3.417 99 1.808 2.232 2.853 5.201
45 2.796 4.102 3.115 3.232 100 2.189 3.273 3.211 2.467
46 2.564 3.115 2.717 1.635 102 3.948 2.766 3.255 3.76
47 2.523 4.965 2.545 3.417 103 3.521 2.985 2.733 3.76
48 4.234 2.687 2.97 2.45 104 1.662 2.439 3.049 5.187
49 4.066 2.766 3.255 4.33

AAiT - 206 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

APPENDIX G: Probable Maximum Precipitations (PMP) of Different Stations in the UBNB and the Ratios of
PMP to 10,000 Years Return Period Quantiles for in situ and Reanalysis data.
Table G.1 Probable Maximum Precipitations (PMP) of different stations in the UBNB and the ratios of PMP to 10,000 years return period
quantiles for 1-day.

In situ Data ECMWF ECMWF With bias Correction GLADS

PMP/ PMP/ PMP/ PMP/
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles
Station PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles
(mm) for (mm) for (mm) for (mm) for
for for for for
No. T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000
T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000
1 319.336 150.617 2.120 320.100 226.825 1.411 161.649 97.448 1.659 279.950 246.113 1.137
2 257.503 140.243 1.836 191.203 130.701 1.463 119.882 79.894 1.501 277.251 230.262 1.204
3 312.044 250.572 1.245 282.477 199.491 1.416 136.725 99.208 1.378 261.034 200.571 1.301
4 257.889 163.117 1.581 211.369 100.000 2.114 112.657 49.132 2.293 372.176 272.117 1.368
5 199.377 86.233 2.312 211.081 152.142 1.387 106.687 71.907 1.484 224.200 147.824 1.517
6 314.155 252.733 1.243 123.581 82.239 1.503 69.987 44.831 1.561 566.296 496.681 1.140
7 228.901 133.560 1.714 189.677 147.667 1.284 94.413 79.425 1.189 302.488 202.305 1.495
8 219.857 72.731 3.023 262.644 158.259 1.660 198.525 125.246 1.585 586.421 499.693 1.174
9 271.421 189.926 1.429 210.447 92.878 2.266 162.474 90.666 1.792 279.785 240.122 1.165
10 174.142 134.756 1.292 148.032 120.111 1.232 101.953 68.216 1.495 262.476 211.302 1.242
11 200.194 131.123 1.527 148.032 120.111 1.232 101.953 68.216 1.495 262.476 211.302 1.242
12 262.712 315.722 0.832 231.781 162.774 1.424 157.160 100.861 1.558 322.499 255.815 1.261
13 257.180 154.172 1.668 229.509 160.473 1.430 135.663 90.844 1.493 348.233 271.748 1.281
14 226.106 195.092 1.159 245.759 169.479 1.450 132.835 87.315 1.521 327.173 231.433 1.414
15 320.737 230.976 1.389 334.556 259.693 1.288 151.845 56.398 2.692 258.723 213.492 1.212
16 290.884 148.264 1.962 203.181 127.313 1.596 117.452 72.609 1.618 198.212 103.591 1.913
17 292.398 276.461 1.058 161.035 124.232 1.296 91.876 60.413 1.521 386.258 285.759 1.352
18 236.855 157.885 1.500 234.901 111.733 2.102 129.379 69.038 1.874 318.366 284.750 1.118
19 236.357 152.707 1.548 231.311 160.473 1.441 136.784 90.844 1.506 334.881 199.672 1.677
20 313.455 162.455 1.929 211.369 100.000 2.114 112.657 48.292 2.333 394.979 298.440 1.323
21 367.721 143.931 2.555 211.369 100.000 2.114 112.657 56.398 1.998 394.979 298.440 1.323
22 395.145 366.603 1.078 336.275 259.693 1.295 152.868 56.398 2.711 270.603 242.849 1.114
23 214.802 108.859 1.973 173.387 121.412 1.428 101.673 67.674 1.502 205.449 105.445 1.948
24 205.315 169.892 1.209 233.120 158.294 1.473 117.748 68.516 1.719 317.996 222.563 1.429
25 245.957 206.286 1.192 204.036 147.485 1.383 120.109 53.965 2.226 267.569 158.839 1.685
26 328.176 516.964 0.635 182.035 95.086 1.914 120.476 68.258 1.765 279.819 143.596 1.949
27 283.186 171.399 1.652 234.901 111.733 2.102 129.379 69.038 1.874 354.291 275.125 1.288

AAiT - 207 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

In situ Data ECMWF ECMWF With bias Correction GLADS

PMP/ PMP/ PMP/ PMP/
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles
PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles
Station (mm) for (mm) for (mm) for (mm) for
for for for for
T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000
No. T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000
28 196.582 118.204 1.663 273.248 214.142 1.276 143.897 90.744 1.586 170.877 156.445 1.092
29 214.802 108.859 1.973 282.477 199.491 1.416 136.725 99.208 1.378 261.034 200.571 1.301
30 214.653 98.899 2.170 230.852 97.574 2.366 268.427 84.083 3.192 424.041 357.849 1.185
31 192.572 104.724 1.839 215.705 114.289 1.887 123.077 69.289 1.776 422.705 298.755 1.415
32 521.002 284.010 1.834 229.939 159.188 1.444 162.691 93.538 1.739 276.649 224.288 1.233
33 223.720 196.692 1.137 233.120 158.294 1.473 117.748 68.516 1.719 317.996 222.563 1.429
34 186.702 165.636 1.127 109.888 93.282 1.178 78.037 63.102 1.237 415.403 254.240 1.634
35 163.393 89.817 1.819 177.704 121.434 1.463 92.020 45.194 2.036 385.933 326.453 1.182
36 211.781 322.732 0.656 177.704 121.434 1.463 92.020 45.194 2.036 352.520 250.759 1.406
37 238.105 219.703 1.084 229.939 159.188 1.444 162.691 93.538 1.739 437.401 367.607 1.190
38 200.232 270.018 0.742 172.076 101.958 1.688 117.551 80.646 1.458 365.441 253.601 1.441
39 339.901 169.214 2.009 303.049 235.026 1.289 162.906 120.298 1.354 280.304 256.941 1.091
40 252.804 120.970 2.090 233.120 158.294 1.473 117.748 68.516 1.719 327.173 231.433 1.414
41 272.378 226.202 1.204 191.203 130.701 1.463 119.882 79.894 1.501 244.405 198.958 1.228
42 451.206 459.511 0.982 210.361 125.957 1.670 133.521 73.566 1.815 380.575 325.905 1.168
43 238.265 195.024 1.222 177.704 121.434 1.463 92.020 47.493 1.938 383.913 281.358 1.365
44 472.544 312.084 1.514 322.914 226.979 1.423 163.180 107.062 1.524 378.546 310.460 1.219
45 302.398 189.592 1.595 134.012 106.651 1.257 101.681 67.803 1.500 421.657 315.774 1.335
46 146.590 92.175 1.590 173.387 121.412 1.428 101.673 67.674 1.502 198.212 103.591 1.913
47 266.241 166.678 1.597 322.914 226.979 1.423 163.180 107.062 1.524 378.546 310.460 1.219
48 257.191 148.262 1.735 174.201 83.434 2.088 132.015 82.164 1.607 295.138 197.874 1.492
49 284.206 183.264 1.551 172.076 101.958 1.688 117.551 80.646 1.458 365.441 253.601 1.441
50 370.291 145.284 2.549 178.848 88.225 2.027 125.461 81.668 1.536 334.622 212.505 1.575
51 234.994 212.235 1.107 165.838 96.564 1.717 111.092 61.818 1.797 321.552 235.774 1.364
52 188.420 89.629 2.102 191.203 130.701 1.463 119.882 79.894 1.501 277.251 230.262 1.204
53 196.003 86.103 2.276 161.035 124.232 1.296 91.876 60.413 1.521 371.713 295.148 1.259
54 185.635 107.758 1.723 273.248 214.142 1.276 143.897 90.744 1.586 170.877 156.445 1.092
55 102.966 62.628 1.644 165.838 96.564 1.717 111.092 73.196 1.518 297.163 239.565 1.240
56 188.275 184.894 1.018 211.081 152.142 1.387 106.687 71.907 1.484 224.200 147.824 1.517
57 293.580 129.755 2.263 176.392 138.822 1.271 114.112 73.260 1.558 304.865 192.134 1.587
58 276.072 235.526 1.172 320.100 226.825 1.411 161.649 97.448 1.659 331.187 229.155 1.445
59 221.825 236.578 0.938 191.203 130.701 1.463 119.882 79.894 1.501 277.251 230.262 1.204
60 210.354 107.279 1.961 210.447 92.878 2.266 162.474 90.666 1.792 374.234 271.029 1.381

AAiT - 208 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

In situ Data ECMWF ECMWF With bias Correction GLADS

PMP/ PMP/ PMP/ PMP/
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles
PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles
(mm) for (mm) for (mm) for (mm) for
Station for for for for
T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000
T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000
No.
61 272.807 141.609 1.926 210.447 92.878 2.266 162.474 90.666 1.792 374.234 271.029 1.381
62 208.575 130.900 1.593 210.447 92.878 2.266 162.474 90.666 1.792 386.371 305.046 1.267
63 282.893 212.251 1.333 171.260 114.564 1.495 107.747 71.986 1.497 345.545 200.604 1.723
64 154.047 100.415 1.534 253.475 124.044 2.043 249.573 74.239 3.362 544.945 421.918 1.292
65 378.003 287.085 1.317 194.849 112.227 1.736 98.777 56.801 1.739 394.979 298.440 1.323
66 170.675 82.146 2.078 155.337 117.638 1.320 126.681 78.058 1.623 267.980 229.013 1.170
67 198.094 108.079 1.833 173.387 121.412 1.428 101.673 67.674 1.502 240.999 143.224 1.683
68 281.912 313.560 0.899 155.337 117.638 1.320 126.681 78.058 1.623 262.476 211.302 1.242
69 265.178 156.235 1.697 230.852 97.574 2.366 268.427 84.083 3.192 424.041 357.849 1.185
70 258.870 230.988 1.121 203.181 127.313 1.596 117.452 72.609 1.618 358.257 255.224 1.404
71 270.349 153.035 1.767 123.581 82.239 1.503 69.987 40.628 1.723 324.176 226.144 1.433
72 251.020 153.957 1.630 173.387 121.412 1.428 101.673 67.674 1.502 238.633 194.819 1.225
73 233.343 157.860 1.478 173.387 121.412 1.428 101.673 67.674 1.502 238.633 194.819 1.225
74 176.710 87.174 2.027 153.169 77.868 1.967 145.092 87.964 1.649 541.358 452.438 1.197
75 103.633 49.609 2.089 213.199 126.285 1.688 196.805 64.114 3.070 553.495 448.165 1.235
76 480.405 365.240 1.315 299.199 193.072 1.550 146.355 58.238 2.513 290.247 236.137 1.229
77 300.166 176.776 1.698 215.705 114.289 1.887 123.077 69.289 1.776 380.575 325.905 1.168
78 202.236 113.743 1.778 157.189 79.656 1.973 134.652 86.760 1.552 448.785 264.081 1.699
79 228.723 147.680 1.549 211.369 100.000 2.114 112.657 49.132 2.293 372.176 272.117 1.368
80 263.035 185.816 1.416 202.211 122.069 1.657 116.570 58.530 1.992 301.006 273.526 1.100
81 218.665 135.927 1.609 171.260 114.564 1.495 107.747 71.986 1.497 323.748 266.096 1.217
82 261.441 197.704 1.322 339.413 255.830 1.327 158.974 67.742 2.347 392.433 338.776 1.158
83 306.098 247.874 1.235 245.759 169.479 1.450 132.835 87.315 1.521 309.739 269.759 1.148
84 93.855 74.260 1.264 262.644 158.259 1.660 198.525 125.246 1.585 586.421 499.693 1.174
85 372.931 209.742 1.778 245.759 169.479 1.450 132.835 87.315 1.521 321.295 266.993 1.203
86 244.574 106.826 2.289 205.884 140.081 1.470 128.248 91.647 1.399 363.268 187.398 1.938
87 281.096 176.453 1.593 320.100 226.825 1.411 161.649 97.448 1.659 322.058 216.640 1.487
88 359.034 298.860 1.201 202.211 122.069 1.657 116.570 58.530 1.992 404.859 268.380 1.509
89 326.281 152.989 2.133 173.387 121.412 1.428 101.673 67.674 1.502 234.135 134.491 1.741
90 228.845 103.083 2.220 208.933 150.913 1.384 143.303 102.917 1.392 337.589 200.442 1.684
91 165.163 139.788 1.182 134.740 83.595 1.612 111.384 75.989 1.466 343.650 220.922 1.556
92 223.317 104.078 2.146 231.311 160.473 1.441 136.784 90.844 1.506 334.696 242.710 1.379

AAiT - 209 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

In situ Data ECMWF ECMWF With bias Correction GLADS

PMP/ PMP/ PMP/ PMP/
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles
Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles
PMP(mm) (mm) for PMP(mm) (mm) for PMP(mm) (mm) for PMP(mm) (mm) for
Station T=10,0000
for
T=10,0000
for
T=10,0000
for
T=10,0000
for
No. T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000
93 275.240 190.217 1.447 253.475 124.044 2.043 249.573 74.239 3.362 530.680 415.923 1.276
94 212.628 149.102 1.426 161.035 124.232 1.296 91.876 60.413 1.521 371.713 295.148 1.259
95 324.972 144.432 2.250 211.369 100.000 2.114 112.657 49.132 2.293 317.745 276.597 1.149
96 164.880 109.080 1.512 213.199 126.285 1.688 196.805 64.114 3.070 526.684 390.882 1.347
97 204.277 109.910 1.859 339.413 255.830 1.327 158.974 67.742 2.347 367.796 301.979 1.218
98 384.757 232.726 1.653 194.849 112.227 1.736 98.777 56.801 1.739 343.280 255.566 1.343
99 304.334 310.872 0.979 215.705 114.289 1.887 123.077 69.289 1.776 380.575 325.905 1.168
100 303.524 158.231 1.918 211.081 152.142 1.387 106.687 71.907 1.484 261.118 207.662 1.257
101 203.779 181.939 1.120 172.076 101.958 1.688 117.551 80.646 1.458 262.476 211.302 1.242
102 332.746 259.053 1.284 172.076 101.958 1.688 117.551 80.646 1.458 335.857 255.462 1.315
103 188.122 114.043 1.650 211.369 100.000 2.114 119.882 79.894 1.501 335.857 255.462 1.315
104 299.043 236.317 1.265 191.203 130.701 1.463 112.657 49.132 2.293 394.979 298.440 1.323

Table G.2 Probable Maximum Precipitations (PMP) of different stations in the UBNB and the ratios of PMP to 10,000 years return period
quantiles for 2-day

In situ Data ECMWF ECMWF With bias Correction GLADS

PMP/ PMP/ PMP/ PMP/
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles
Station Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles
PMP(mm) (mm) for PMP(mm) (mm) for PMP(mm) (mm) for PMP(mm) (mm) for
for for for for
No. T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000
T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000
1 385.775 181.52394 2.1252005 356.744 240.00505 1.4864001 189.552 128.95238 1.4699344 297.112 242.55917 1.2249039
2 253.308 143.22304 1.7686244 235.792 149.32928 1.5790059 157.652 105.1703 1.4990206 297.215 270.03709 1.1006438
3 295.640 219.64932 1.3459624 332.490 226.89116 1.4654163 179.455 108.71999 1.6506164 298.819 204.41655 1.4618126
4 281.335 203.59398 1.3818451 255.136 115.85058 2.2022854 129.453 62.464246 2.0724292 458.264 351.8512 1.3024369
5 213.400 106.28595 2.0077916 255.292 176.03679 1.4502218 135.514 83.810494 1.6169096 262.680 243.14123 1.080358
6 318.298 199.72773 1.5936593 172.716 112.09627 1.5407784 124.379 75.95747 1.6374877 661.883 609.73577 1.0855249
7 257.073 122.87101 2.0922186 204.316 150.72711 1.3555378 113.287 82.495651 1.3732542 351.694 268.12951 1.3116575
9 265.451 170.10422 1.5605226 234.204 101.18726 2.3145613 172.784 108.37294 1.5943496 335.574 268.58279 1.249423
10 220.631 113.53946 1.9432115 200.527 139.29059 1.4396308 147.784 97.871927 1.5099763 285.107 238.97803 1.1930278
12 285.784 214.99933 1.3292316 293.948 198.16558 1.4833441 176.386 128.60311 1.3715553 340.448 296.16703 1.149513
13 249.693 122.36715 2.040524 293.257 202.42778 1.4487009 170.402 119.6639 1.4240018 358.136 307.57236 1.1643954

AAiT - 210 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

In situ Data ECMWF ECMWF With bias Correction GLADS

PMP/ PMP/ PMP/ PMP/
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles
PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles
Station (mm) for (mm) for (mm) for (mm) for
for for for for
T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000
No. T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000
14 275.893 215.62295 1.2795182 297.971 192.74065 1.5459699 158.893 111.41734 1.4261094 359.795 249.8277 1.440173
15 256.048 166.02654 1.5422091 362.824 235.25713 1.5422461 168.571 65.849676 2.5599315 299.088 220.7459 1.354899
16 312.705 237.92142 1.3143203 245.434 163.19595 1.5039228 158.208 103.03784 1.5354338 249.780 188.10539 1.3278709
17 273.485 170.66158 1.6025005 221.546 138.06374 1.6046651 124.139 86.723352 1.4314418 466.235 421.95392 1.1049422
18 295.853 169.33883 1.7471077 255.847 116.25338 2.2007743 139.918 69.059276 2.0260579 348.082 306.32979 1.1362975
19 235.975 117.09176 2.0153011 293.257 202.42778 1.4487009 170.402 119.6639 1.4240018 369.151 200.60145 1.8402189
20 375.009 270.00324 1.3889067 255.136 115.85058 2.2022854 129.453 62.464246 2.0724292 484.397 385.74393 1.2557487
21 332.841 214.1041 1.5545768 255.136 115.85058 2.2022854 129.453 62.464246 2.0724292 484.397 385.74393 1.2557487
22 349.488 273.20696 1.2792054 364.841 235.25713 1.5508164 169.884 65.849676 2.5798771 287.020 171.17397 1.6767713
23 210.985 133.26577 1.5831914 188.581 124.26767 1.517542 129.506 87.792027 1.4751457 257.097 207.98951 1.2361051
24 246.137 153.3742 1.6048142 297.426 197.9865 1.502255 161.674 89.163274 1.8132318 356.559 259.73605 1.3727761
25 246.277 161.78002 1.5222971 224.857 166.01577 1.3544287 133.550 73.202417 1.8243974 343.761 220.91063 1.5561075
26 327.562 159.29549 2.0563188 209.886 126.46526 1.659637 130.826 88.562702 1.477209 347.498 208.39123 1.6675262
27 272.079 134.61993 2.0210874 255.847 116.25338 2.2007743 139.918 69.059276 2.0260579 375.571 332.00712 1.131214
28 200.999 123.14615 1.6322027 331.023 266.14141 1.2437854 162.824 91.174619 1.7858452 202.732 187.94717 1.0786661
29 284.977 160.99299 1.770121 332.490 226.89116 1.4654163 179.455 108.71999 1.6506164 298.819 204.41655 1.4618126
30 286.511 165.65217 1.7295964 323.193 207.26645 1.5593101 292.095 98.603635 2.9623116 533.812 481.41291 1.1088445
31 241.149 125.67586 1.9188181 254.532 146.57738 1.7365034 165.207 119.38991 1.3837587 469.587 466.22054 1.0072202
32 659.984 423.10249 1.5598675 284.799 202.24102 1.4082155 188.507 110.41447 1.7072687 339.661 295.23739 1.150466
33 215.933 115.0915 1.8761817 297.426 197.9865 1.502255 161.674 89.163274 1.8132318 356.559 259.73605 1.3727761
34 204.437 168.24461 1.2151171 178.638 107.95338 1.6547685 124.962 88.9402 1.4050165 445.056 320.30304 1.389483
35 191.382 116.83799 1.6380139 225.794 126.33521 1.78726 116.048 77.314543 1.5009804 486.737 454.24707 1.071525
36 220.020 94.980121 2.3164832 225.794 126.33521 1.78726 116.048 77.314543 1.5009804 464.285 363.75024 1.2763848
37 248.753 124.97676 1.9903941 284.799 202.24102 1.4082155 188.507 110.41447 1.7072687 504.100 495.25318 1.017864
38 225.236 157.23373 1.4324896 236.778 157.25095 1.5057306 167.846 108.26737 1.5502933 476.870 486.40681 0.9803929
39 256.928 134.44533 1.9110196 335.021 220.2865 1.5208439 182.261 123.80951 1.4721067 303.969 250.78277 1.2120812
40 253.510 126.71565 2.0006203 297.426 197.9865 1.502255 161.674 89.163274 1.8132318 359.795 249.8277 1.440173
41 280.563 190.00516 1.4766088 235.792 149.32928 1.5790059 157.652 105.1703 1.4990206 321.529 271.00164 1.1864485
42 359.463 173.00009 2.077821 231.173 122.24768 1.8910186 139.906 91.571011 1.5278445 436.884 368.81255 1.1845681
43 253.406 180.09655 1.4070571 225.794 126.33521 1.78726 116.048 77.314543 1.5009804 496.279 399.90514 1.2409914
44 463.049 321.64644 1.4396204 349.740 251.08421 1.3929205 198.366 138.87835 1.4283426 396.340 301.89205 1.3128524
45 363.596 222.239 1.6360574 204.588 139.44007 1.4672088 145.147 96.266375 1.5077591 411.413 384.1881 1.0708626
46 243.645 106.88669 2.279474 188.581 124.26767 1.517542 129.506 87.792027 1.4751457 249.780 188.10539 1.3278709

AAiT - 211 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

In situ Data ECMWF ECMWF With bias Correction GLADS

PMP/ PMP/ PMP/ PMP/
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles
PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles
Station (mm) for (mm) for (mm) for (mm) for
for for for for
T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000
No. T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000
47 252.431 164.42631 1.535224 349.740 251.08421 1.3929205 198.366 138.87835 1.4283426 396.340 301.89205 1.3128524
48 300.336 220.86877 1.3597934 212.282 133.09919 1.5949174 151.588 93.639082 1.6188516 355.975 304.54322 1.1688811
49 307.113 237.16651 1.2949239 236.778 157.25095 1.5057306 167.846 108.26737 1.5502933 476.870 486.40681 0.9803929
51 268.166 144.66649 1.8536857 208.860 111.43681 1.8742492 150.011 95.88848 1.5644307 351.700 270.18794 1.3016848
52 217.067 114.15688 1.9014805 235.792 149.32928 1.5790059 157.652 105.1703 1.4990206 297.215 270.03709 1.1006438
53 196.210 103.30623 1.8993054 223.776 138.06374 1.6208152 125.563 86.723352 1.4478513 464.713 425.31063 1.0926429
54 228.459 174.10883 1.3121637 331.023 266.14141 1.2437854 162.824 91.174619 1.7858452 202.732 187.94717 1.0786661
56 241.289 138.64437 1.7403463 255.292 176.03679 1.4502218 135.514 83.810494 1.6169096 262.680 243.14123 1.080358
57 298.936 137.48485 2.1743177 220.393 154.88034 1.4229898 141.076 92.688827 1.5220362 345.020 210.05752 1.6425001
58 365.687 261.47016 1.3985816 356.744 240.00505 1.4864001 189.552 128.95238 1.4699344 330.440 222.66569 1.4840193
59 254.428 148.58121 1.71238 235.792 149.32928 1.5790059 157.652 105.1703 1.4990206 297.215 270.03709 1.1006438
60 233.570 131.34497 1.7782972 234.204 101.18726 2.3145613 172.784 108.37294 1.5943496 396.852 381.04013 1.0414964
62 222.955 149.01123 1.4962284 234.204 101.18726 2.3145613 172.784 108.37294 1.5943496 406.299 364.82985 1.1136677
63 268.935 129.06795 2.0836712 213.413 153.64437 1.3890043 117.991 80.214817 1.4709379 451.129 427.21279 1.055981
65 486.772 306.42412 1.5885563 224.954 129.65768 1.7349876 128.658 76.836049 1.6744421 484.397 385.74393 1.2557487
66 157.346 81.058573 1.9411399 201.718 145.5404 1.3859958 168.835 107.45945 1.5711535 268.552 264.31763 1.0160186
67 242.548 150.48752 1.6117498 188.581 124.26767 1.517542 129.506 87.792027 1.4751457 322.054 227.73862 1.4141381
68 356.635 179.62028 1.9854933 201.718 145.5404 1.3859958 168.835 107.45945 1.5711535 285.107 238.97803 1.1930278
69 327.196 174.11532 1.8791942 323.193 207.26645 1.5593101 292.095 98.603635 2.9623116 533.812 481.41291 1.1088445
70 344.256 244.39974 1.4085758 245.434 163.19595 1.5039228 158.208 103.03784 1.5354338 389.552 272.66015 1.4287101
71 273.858 139.28642 1.9661493 345.702 181.29605 1.9068387 124.379 75.95747 1.6374877 369.892 256.1632 1.4439691
72 274.773 167.17054 1.6436713 188.581 124.26767 1.517542 129.506 87.792027 1.4751457 277.518 204.49845 1.357067
73 224.142 112.16649 1.9982992 188.581 124.26767 1.517542 129.506 87.792027 1.4751457 277.518 204.49845 1.357067
74 212.836 125.36241 1.6977667 240.460 151.74588 1.5846255 209.225 90.728618 2.3060527 601.386 541.96629 1.1096364
77 366.201 299.25144 1.223724 254.532 146.57738 1.7365034 165.207 119.38991 1.3837587 436.884 368.81255 1.1845681
78 184.982 100.98566 1.8317625 197.803 132.21267 1.4960968 117.404 78.566767 1.4943262 584.088 550.6528 1.0607187
79 252.340 133.79633 1.8860022 255.136 115.85058 2.2022854 129.453 62.464246 2.0724292 458.264 351.8512 1.3024369
80 288.359 196.76694 1.4654875 245.109 155.1904 1.5794083 150.034 102.06022 1.4700568 324.937 289.13672 1.1238163
81 256.334 176.27 1.4542115 213.413 153.64437 1.3890043 117.991 80.214817 1.4709379 408.784 390.51225 1.0467884
82 278.197 194.68811 1.4289361 423.087 226.60482 1.8670681 194.221 114.36565 1.6982455 443.500 380.07607 1.1668723
83 276.337 165.55414 1.6691657 297.971 192.74065 1.5459699 158.893 111.41734 1.4261094 326.703 270.04174 1.2098248
85 357.452 267.93359 1.3341053 297.971 192.74065 1.5459699 158.893 111.41734 1.4261094 335.676 302.15495 1.1109412
86 394.180 165.68605 2.3790767 258.764 132.78573 1.9487334 169.307 86.06892 1.9671145 384.500 245.93991 1.5633905

AAiT - 212 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

In situ Data ECMWF ECMWF With bias Correction GLADS

PMP/ PMP/ PMP/ PMP/
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Station Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles
Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles
No. PMP(mm) (mm) for PMP(mm) (mm) for PMP(mm) (mm) for PMP(mm) (mm) for
for for for for
T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000
T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000

87 284.734 206.93959 1.3759264 356.744 240.00505 1.4864001 189.552 128.95238 1.4699344 317.244 237.60723 1.3351617
88 436.233 185.9943 2.3454099 245.109 155.1904 1.5794083 150.034 102.06022 1.4700568 438.468 335.0253 1.308761
89 236.566 139.06281 1.701142 188.581 124.26767 1.517542 129.506 87.792027 1.4751457 306.779 249.41837 1.2299777
90 245.164 179.00208 1.3696181 273.282 196.83001 1.3884162 174.731 99.120115 1.7628215 365.234 245.46574 1.4879208
91 145.829 72.274781 2.0177049 169.607 123.50823 1.373247 165.469 94.19714 1.7566289 371.186 234.71 1.5814672
92 249.997 128.99359 1.9380565 293.257 202.42778 1.4487009 170.402 119.6639 1.4240018 355.550 227.79809 1.5608135
94 240.288 154.45786 1.5556852 223.776 138.06374 1.6208152 125.563 86.723352 1.4478513 464.713 425.31063 1.0926429
95 302.108 172.20091 1.7543936 255.136 115.85058 2.2022854 129.453 62.464246 2.0724292 433.216 329.4298 1.3150472
96 245.577 126.96687 1.9341796 299.432 189.74137 1.5781079 224.832 78.389886 2.8681301 561.320 476.17581 1.1788088
97 270.227 102.59645 2.6338779 423.087 226.60482 1.8670681 194.221 114.36565 1.6982455 444.673 407.21242 1.0919931
98 332.841 214.1041 1.5545768 224.954 129.65768 1.7349876 128.658 76.836049 1.6744421 421.227 337.13478 1.2494309
99 288.265 108.64464 2.6532849 254.532 146.57738 1.7365034 165.207 119.38991 1.3837587 436.884 368.81255 1.1845681
100 268.215 123.03001 2.1800781 255.292 176.03679 1.4502218 135.514 83.810494 1.6169096 297.183 273.95916 1.0847711
102 346.821 213.66217 1.6232236 236.778 157.25095 1.5057306 167.846 108.26737 1.5502933 441.888 404.20868 1.0932174
103 221.532 161.5181 1.3715617 235.792 149.32928 1.5790059 157.652 105.1703 1.4990206 441.888 404.20868 1.0932174
104 269.320 175.71298 1.5327275 255.136 115.85058 2.2022854 129.453 62.464246 2.0724292 484.397 385.74393 1.2557487

AAiT - 213 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Table G.3 Probable Maximum Precipitations (PMP) of different stations in the UBNB and the ratios of PMP to 10,000 years
return period quantiles for 3-day
In situ Data ECMWF ECMWF With bias Correction GLADS
PMP/ PMP/ PMP/ PMP/
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Station Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles
PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles
No. (mm) for (mm) for (mm) for (mm) for
for for for for
T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000
T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000
1 476.430 277.11283 1.7192643 335.055 226.57881 1.4787558 209.455 108.76164 1.9258133 292.920 266.86516 1.0976315
2 320.043 149.54229 2.1401479 277.466 191.86465 1.4461557 215.098 126.72192 1.6973981 359.216 263.75862 1.361912
3 420.475 227.67339 1.8468344 314.852 229.6234 1.3711674 185.643 97.73782 1.8993969 285.256 285.20262 1.0001879
4 348.290 259.26137 1.3433923 278.287 135.39767 2.05533 169.772 81.405953 2.0854977 456.543 323.18467 1.412637
5 329.803 166.84232 1.9767367 268.814 205.73051 1.3066312 169.935 115.46507 1.4717434 325.611 203.20046 1.6024105
6 411.822 238.0687 1.7298442 208.511 155.80103 1.3383178 161.846 80.297941 2.0155658 713.064 658.47647 1.0828995
7 309.347 196.67595 1.5728743 237.028 178.2218 1.3299613 156.182 88.894923 1.7569312 386.373 277.50773 1.392296
9 328.071 216.70961 1.5138731 253.569 116.12499 2.1835838 203.086 104.03886 1.9520196 383.426 327.31331 1.1714342
10 271.243 179.15046 1.5140523 226.628 118.7711 1.9081073 169.194 103.10928 1.6409174 321.290 237.49265 1.352842
12 521.070 151.39433 3.4418036 286.178 222.12823 1.2883481 200.278 111.24478 1.8003317 388.411 366.59655 1.0595055
13 318.942 186.33496 1.7116603 285.986 202.59576 1.4116081 204.595 124.99928 1.6367731 408.909 351.31339 1.1639438
14 361.625 196.11492 1.843942 275.218 175.07433 1.5720088 185.939 111.19414 1.6722002 380.249 369.3583 1.029486
15 262.011 188.23352 1.3919477 370.992 257.72657 1.439479 196.969 83.415519 2.3612978 320.300 301.93139 1.0608382
16 413.013 253.19187 1.6312252 249.665 172.82729 1.4445945 176.749 109.2006 1.6185762 289.723 156.14645 1.8554554
17 333.466 239.27867 1.3936311 248.396 179.60409 1.3830221 172.215 118.41858 1.4542891 466.693 402.19629 1.1603612
18 414.159 192.20984 2.1547233 289.781 139.33162 2.079795 184.865 97.441236 1.8971994 432.254 373.86933 1.156164
19 313.817 128.819 2.4361093 285.986 202.59576 1.4116081 204.595 124.99928 1.6367731 391.232 284.46162 1.3753419
20 449.397 254.34166 1.7669025 278.287 135.39767 2.05533 169.772 81.405953 2.0854977 494.634 401.51284 1.2319264
21 434.548 260.85311 1.6658715 278.287 135.39767 2.05533 169.772 81.405953 2.0854977 494.634 401.51284 1.2319264
22 529.819 225.78883 2.3465235 373.172 257.72657 1.4479357 198.468 83.415519 2.379275 298.969 312.21306 0.9575801
23 260.113 125.91495 2.0657837 227.458 157.71166 1.4422387 166.432 107.80011 1.5438965 296.067 175.33055 1.6886218
24 281.859 200.10185 1.4085774 283.876 192.75471 1.4727321 176.867 100.80739 1.7545048 382.622 349.40792 1.0950568
25 310.909 152.07069 2.0445029 303.259 216.54546 1.4004419 178.428 84.33901 2.1156076 351.932 236.43983 1.488464
26 370.163 197.59528 1.8733401 275.989 129.4592 2.1318609 204.340 122.97015 1.6617074 346.924 220.45091 1.5737023
27 342.098 167.02396 2.0481983 289.781 139.33162 2.079795 184.865 97.441236 1.8971994 453.808 422.82765 1.0732698
28 257.936 152.54629 1.690869 336.526 262.81715 1.2804566 192.131 94.301333 2.0374168 260.932 188.87274 1.3815254
29 345.155 176.07702 1.9602515 314.852 229.6234 1.3711674 185.643 97.73782 1.8993969 285.256 285.20262 1.0001879
30 329.637 152.11807 2.1669794 355.943 205.23866 1.7342902 319.257 99.881789 3.1963476 647.299 467.32723 1.3851088
31 311.412 157.0136 1.9833445 258.177 129.23004 1.9978065 178.801 87.103514 2.0527423 417.252 376.80135 1.1073536
32 874.468 529.0361 1.6529464 270.842 203.54562 1.330622 207.091 113.43778 1.82559 379.705 332.20071 1.142998
33 303.219 198.69095 1.5260824 283.876 192.75471 1.4727321 176.867 100.80739 1.7545048 382.622 349.40792 1.0950568

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016
In situ Data ECMWF ECMWF With bias Correction GLADS
PMP/ PMP/ PMP/ PMP/
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Station Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles
PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles PMP(mm) Quantiles
No. (mm) for (mm) for (mm) for (mm) for
for for for for
T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000
T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000

34 254.416 176.98267 1.4375209 237.857 138.74259 1.714373 178.302 82.802466 2.1533464 527.827 361.93249 1.4583573
35 241.990 147.99219 1.6351556 280.985 157.29963 1.7863051 156.621 82.837992 1.8906935 518.776 369.25768 1.404915
36 236.357 114.24726 2.0688182 280.985 157.29963 1.7863051 156.621 82.837992 1.8906935 472.239 318.67732 1.4818722
37 295.332 135.30973 2.1826405 270.842 203.54562 1.330622 207.091 113.43778 1.82559 557.181 544.06539 1.0241075
38 314.880 241.43737 1.3041911 276.847 188.34659 1.4698811 201.637 135.25548 1.490785 459.872 422.07041 1.0895625
39 305.919 135.98759 2.2496071 326.670 237.08779 1.3778423 204.160 99.823361 2.0452141 302.167 275.55083 1.0965934
40 345.646 174.53302 1.9804026 283.876 192.75471 1.4727321 176.867 100.80739 1.7545048 380.249 369.3583 1.029486
41 368.372 259.47543 1.4196783 277.466 191.86465 1.4461557 215.098 126.72192 1.6973981 316.373 271.33644 1.1659823
42 407.801 207.50215 1.9652837 249.464 137.67427 1.8119862 172.299 107.38556 1.6044864 428.553 360.93707 1.1873334
43 317.730 210.30894 1.510777 280.985 157.29963 1.7863051 156.621 82.837992 1.8906935 490.209 322.72183 1.5189846
44 560.041 366.90511 1.5263911 326.286 239.33289 1.3633137 218.115 118.61836 1.838796 436.929 414.92459 1.053033
45 544.504 343.52267 1.585059 245.593 180.47327 1.3608255 190.286 116.97987 1.6266536 487.674 437.25554 1.1153075
46 336.244 156.50063 2.1485143 227.458 157.71166 1.4422387 166.432 107.80011 1.5438965 289.723 156.14645 1.8554554
47 307.903 174.57583 1.7637231 326.286 239.33289 1.3633137 218.115 118.61836 1.838796 436.929 414.92459 1.053033
48 384.573 270.11375 1.4237455 263.780 143.25468 1.8413335 195.984 105.83494 1.8517849 335.253 231.29683 1.4494475
49 358.089 281.55844 1.2718103 276.847 188.34659 1.4698811 201.637 135.25548 1.490785 459.872 422.07041 1.0895625
51 347.420 178.69201 1.9442377 273.445 163.73743 1.6700186 204.142 125.55727 1.6258849 366.679 273.1609 1.3423568
52 281.844 145.09986 1.9424155 277.466 191.86465 1.4461557 215.098 126.72192 1.6973981 359.216 263.75862 1.361912
53 230.952 183.56439 1.258155 250.978 179.60409 1.3973985 173.996 118.41858 1.4693297 469.155 345.80765 1.3566921
54 314.002 222.33277 1.412305 336.526 262.81715 1.2804566 192.131 94.301333 2.0374168 260.932 188.87274 1.3815254
56 289.643 181.20026 1.5984696 268.814 205.73051 1.3066312 169.935 115.46507 1.4717434 325.611 203.20046 1.6024105
57 376.404 157.6595 2.3874502 226.251 140.04982 1.6155068 149.111 92.346971 1.6146774 387.947 302.46778 1.2826077
58 481.601 348.47517 1.3820233 335.055 226.57881 1.4787558 209.455 108.76164 1.9258133 369.064 292.96251 1.259766
59 332.623 240.46328 1.383259 277.466 191.86465 1.4461557 215.098 126.72192 1.6973981 359.216 263.75862 1.361912
60 281.689 155.86302 1.8072882 253.569 116.12499 2.1835838 203.086 104.03886 1.9520196 488.626 437.90732 1.1158205
62 267.327 143.66764 1.8607292 253.569 116.12499 2.1835838 203.086 104.03886 1.9520196 507.309 464.64636 1.0918176
63 394.551 213.71895 1.8461225 263.426 175.29409 1.5027633 162.986 82.442726 1.976961 444.509 366.2805 1.2135764
65 528.346 345.64835 1.528564 218.131 124.61969 1.7503771 144.830 93.319971 1.5519702 494.634 401.51284 1.2319264
66 237.055 131.36405 1.8045646 230.993 161.88626 1.4268835 190.265 116.22884 1.6369852 329.226 256.45276 1.2837693
67 313.601 186.41472 1.6822736 227.458 157.71166 1.4422387 166.432 107.80011 1.5438965 317.858 222.05321 1.431451
68 337.969 147.30197 2.2943974 230.993 161.88626 1.4268835 190.265 116.22884 1.6369852 321.290 237.49265 1.352842

AAiT - 215 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

In situ Data ECMWF ECMWF With bias Correction GLADS

PMP/ PMP/ PMP/ PMP/
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Station Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles
Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles Quantiles
No. PMP(mm) (mm) for PMP(mm) (mm) for PMP(mm) (mm) for PMP(mm) (mm) for
for for for for
T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000
T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000 T=10,0000

69 429.805 212.99007 2.0179601 355.943 205.23866 1.7342902 319.257 99.881789 3.1963476 647.299 467.32723 1.3851088
70 442.666 305.47643 1.4491008 249.665 172.82729 1.4445945 176.749 109.2006 1.6185762 432.702 356.15915 1.2149131
71 390.363 170.96991 2.2832284 208.511 155.80103 1.3383178 161.846 80.297941 2.0155658 380.725 278.86135 1.3652847
72 357.653 204.3591 1.7501204 227.458 157.71166 1.4422387 166.432 107.80011 1.5438965 327.911 247.4588 1.3251115
73 320.110 148.54072 2.1550292 227.458 157.71166 1.4422387 166.432 107.80011 1.5438965 327.911 247.4588 1.3251115
74 277.137 143.20882 1.9351944 268.100 173.57815 1.54455 268.546 128.45456 2.0905901 658.561 588.72442 1.1186239
77 471.021 309.55187 1.5216225 254.807 129.23004 1.9717327 178.801 87.103514 2.0527423 428.553 360.93707 1.1873334
78 215.410 102.90741 2.0932382 260.463 190.90548 1.364356 154.295 104.48098 1.4767766 607.311 547.01165 1.1102345
79 278.953 161.82203 1.7238232 278.287 135.39767 2.05533 169.772 81.405953 2.0854977 456.543 323.18467 1.412637
80 367.153 264.00424 1.3907098 283.516 151.56553 1.8705816 204.028 102.40962 1.9922786 375.795 322.87516 1.1639023
81 353.414 237.33475 1.4890963 263.426 175.29409 1.5027633 162.986 82.442726 1.976961 382.701 327.55861 1.1683425
82 345.610 174.53939 1.980125 408.025 282.97281 1.441924 218.028 138.87002 1.5700162 488.881 441.83553 1.1064768
83 338.982 221.50982 1.5303248 275.218 175.07433 1.5720088 185.939 111.19414 1.6722002 350.202 312.81147 1.1195305
85 442.164 285.64164 1.547966 275.218 175.07433 1.5720088 185.939 111.19414 1.6722002 361.361 324.89894 1.1122269
86 557.824 249.20614 2.2384027 275.712 140.34266 1.9645634 182.092 99.220046 1.8352368 418.382 259.85293 1.6100711
87 315.777 222.64421 1.418302 335.055 226.57881 1.4787558 209.455 108.76164 1.9258133 333.363 248.77786 1.3400014
88 522.533 280.33325 1.86397 283.516 151.56553 1.8705816 204.028 102.40962 1.9922786 413.608 357.95288 1.1554817
89 339.338 199.21143 1.7034039 227.458 157.71166 1.4422387 166.432 107.80011 1.5438965 312.427 198.64794 1.5727673
90 329.489 217.41072 1.5155157 286.387 182.3287 1.5707173 203.750 99.760042 2.0424057 387.308 247.22628 1.5666134
91 245.364 84.889144 2.8904031 209.685 154.41321 1.3579485 198.321 97.581259 2.0323668 467.860 326.01052 1.4351064
92 305.099 154.14005 1.9793592 285.986 202.59576 1.4116081 204.595 124.99928 1.6367731 380.240 325.62193 1.1677357
94 285.444 160.12206 1.7826634 250.978 179.60409 1.3973985 173.996 118.41858 1.4693297 469.155 345.80765 1.3566921
95 384.020 228.94889 1.677319 278.287 135.39767 2.05533 169.772 81.405953 2.0854977 467.335 359.74106 1.2990867
96 306.408 124.39435 2.4632009 389.045 202.53746 1.9208553 265.723 93.02425 2.8564907 670.470 590.93025 1.1346015
97 362.000 134.72911 2.6868713 408.025 282.97281 1.441924 218.028 138.87002 1.5700162 487.482 414.65319 1.1756375
98 440.114 260.85311 1.6872097 218.131 124.61969 1.7503771 156.621 82.837992 1.8906935 431.476 357.11984 1.2082095
99 349.855 133.34941 2.6235973 254.807 129.23004 1.9717327 178.801 87.103514 2.0527423 428.553 360.93707 1.1873334
100 338.855 143.99273 2.3532755 268.814 129.23004 2.0801194 169.935 115.46507 1.4717434 346.117 288.13757 1.2012217
102 419.432 248.95771 1.6847513 276.847 188.34659 1.4698811 201.637 135.25548 1.490785 431.324 443.34553 0.9728856
103 298.781 228.1933 1.3093338 277.466 191.86465 1.4461557 215.098 126.72192 1.6973981 431.324 443.34553 0.9728856
104 347.817 162.74533 2.1371856 278.287 135.39767 2.05533 169.772 81.405953 2.0854977 494.634 401.51284 1.2319264

AAiT - 216 - BY:ABENEZER E.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

APPENDIX H: K and PMP contour Maps of UBNB

Figure H1. Frequency factor (K) Contour Maps of UBNB for both in-situ and reanalysis
products using Hershfield’s frequency equation

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Figure H2. PMP (mm) Contour Maps of UBNB for both in-situ and reanalysis products
using Hershfield’s frequency equation

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Figure H3. Frequency factor (K) Contour Maps of UBNB both in-situ and reanalysis
products using Hershfield’s Chart.

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

Figure H4. PMP (mm) Contour Maps of UBNB reanalysis products using Hershfield’s
Chart.

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation |June, 2016

AAiT - 225 - BY:ABENEZER E.