The political future of Afghanistan
Creating a stable Afghan state is not going to be easy
Syed Mohammad Ali October 15, 2020
The recent US airstrikes against the Taliban
have raised doubts about the possibility of a
complete American withdrawal from
Afghanistan by the end of the current year.
Ongoing violence in Afghanistan is straining
the US agreement with the Taliban and is
complicating the desperately sought US exit
from the region. Yet, it is highly unlikely that
The writer holds a PhD from the University of
the US will enhance its military presence in
Melbourne and is the author of Development, Poverty the region having seen the futility of such
and Power in Pakistan, available from Routledge
efforts in the past. Instead, we will probably
continue seeing a redoubling of efforts to
ensure a negotiated settlement to the Afghan imbroglio.
Pakistan is currently in an elated mood for its role in not only convincing the US to sign a
peace deal with the Taliban, but for facilitating the peace negotiation process, and further
engaging in the even more difficult task of enabling intra-Afghan talks. However, the
eventual outcome of the sputtering intra-Afghan talks remains a million-dollar question.
Creating a stable Afghan state is not going to be easy but there are some very interesting
ongoing debates concerning what the political future of Afghanistan may look like.
The Bonn Agreement which tried to re-create the state of Afghanistan following the post-
9/11 US intervention has now become redundant. The US and its Nato allies have spent
billions of dollars over the past 19 years to create a sustainable Afghan state. Yet, despite a
series of elections, incumbent governments lacked legitimacy, and were prone to
fragmentation, infighting, and corruption. As a result, there are now varied actors with
competing interests operating across the country.
The contours of the future political system remain uncertain but given prevailing ground
realities it is likely that a new hybrid regime will see the Taliban assume a dominant
position, while their opponents’ authority is diminished. Ashraf Ghani will certainly need
to relinquish significant amounts of power. Ghani does not have a good record sharing
power with Abdullah Abdullah, and it is unlikely that the Taliban will agree to a
centralised government headed by him.
Yet, the Taliban also know that they cannot go back to their old ways and that they too
need to compromise. It would not serve the interests of the Taliban to be completely
isolated by the West. According to some experts, the Taliban are weary of becoming
another North Korea. Instead, they apparently aspire to be treated like Saudi Arabia, with
whom Europe and the US maintain close relations without challenging the Saudi
monarchy’s ultraconservative ideological positions.
While Afghanistan is no Saudi Arabia, the Taliban today are also not the same group
which had swept into power during the 1990s. The so-called ‘neo-Taliban’ are now less
reliant on Pakistan, and have developed strong ties with other regional actors like Qatar.
The Chinese are also making deals with the Taliban to protect their economic interests in
the country. The Taliban also seem to have reached some understanding with Iran,
whereby they would not target the Shias as they did after their takeover in the 1990s.
Even if a bloody civil war can be averted, the current Afghan Constitution will probably
not survive, and a renegotiated governance structure will need to be put into place. The
Taliban may desire altering the current Afghan state into a theocracy, many others want to
preserve as much of the current democratic setup as possible.
According to Kamran Bokhari at the Center for Global Policy in Washington DC, the
likely compromise could be a Sunni Afghan version of the Islamic Republic of Iran. There
could be a republican component to the future state, but that component may be
circumscribed by a thick theocratic layer.
Hopefully, whatever the new constitutional setup in Afghanistan turns out to be, it can be
flexible enough to allow for equitable resolution of differences between various competing
groups by enabling adequate devolution of power.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 16th, 2020.
