Blue Economy 1-s2.0-S0308597X23004530-main
Blue Economy 1-s2.0-S0308597X23004530-main
Marine Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/marpol
A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T
Keywords: Even though Tanzania has been engaging in domestic and international sea-based economic activities for cen
Blue economy turies, there are no specific statistical data on the contribution of the blue economy to the Tanzania’s economy
Ecosystem reinforcing the importance of this work. The purpose of this paper is to present economic, social, and ecosystem
Evaluation
values that the blue economy resources generate in mainland Tanzania by using the United Nations Economic
GVA
Commission for Africa (UNECA) Blue Economy Valuation Toolkit (BEVTK). In 2020 the major blue economy
Measurement of blue economy
Tanzania industries in Tanzanian contributed USD 7.2 billion to the gross value added (GVA) and employed over 2 million
individuals. The value of ecosystem services was approximately USD 104.24 billion in the year 2020, with large
permanent freshwater lakes contributing significantly (74.87%). The Composite Social Index Value of BE was
estimated at 48.64, indicating that the blue economy contributes positively to the social development of
mainland Tanzania. Among the negative outcomes of social indicators, the BEVTK generated a youth unem
ployment (12.2%) and a gender inequality index (53.0). The BEVTK presented here can be applied to another
country context where decision-makers have similar interests in assessing the blue economy components and
their contribution to the national economy.
1. Introduction the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Global Centre for
Public Service Excellence.1
The concept of “Blue Economy” (BE) was formulated during the The blue economy is also central to the delivery of the 2030 United
“Rio+ 20” United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development held Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as well as to regional
in Rio de Janeiro in 2012 [43]. There, BE was espoused with the desired goals of the African Union (AU) such as the 2050 Africa’s Integrated
outcome of “improved human wellbeing and social equity, while Maritime Strategy (AIMS) and Agenda 2063 [1]. Blue Economy (BE)
significantly reducing environmental risks and ecosystem scarcities, activities appeal to several SDGs, namely: SDG 14: Conserve and sus
endorsing low carbon, resource efficiency and social inclusion” [44]. tainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable
The “Rio+ 20” conference advocated BE as a new economic horizon for development; and SDG 13: Take urgent action to combat climate change
coastal states and for Small Island Developing States (SIDS). The same and its impacts. While these are the directly impacted SDGs, Blue
desired outcome from the BE was echoed in the United Nations Envi Economy further serves other SDGs indirectly. For example, the forward
ronment Programme (UNEP) of Green to Blue Economy [36], and also in linkages from increased local investment in critical ecosystems are
* Corresponding author at: College of Business and Economics, University of Dodoma, Dodoma, Tanzania.
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (A. Maskaeva), [email protected] (P. Failler), [email protected] (H. Cowaloosur), philippe.d.
[email protected] (P. Lallemand), [email protected] (J. Mang’ena).
1
The UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence defines the Blue Economy as follows: “Blue Economy is a marine-based economic development that leads
to improved human wellbeing and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecosystem scarcities”.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2023.105920
Received 20 May 2023; Received in revised form 1 November 2023; Accepted 5 November 2023
Available online 21 November 2023
0308-597X/© 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A. Maskaeva et al. Marine Policy 159 (2024) 105920
expected to support SDG 12 on sustainable consumption and produc national economy that will support informed decision-making in African
tion, while improved and more stable incomes enable enterprising countries. Further description of the BEVTK is provided in the “Meth
households and communities to tackle SDG 1, poverty; SDG 2, food odology” section and is fully described in the BEVTK manual [48].
insecurity; SDG 3, health; and SDG 4, education. It is also a sector which Blue Economy-based activities are not new to the mainland and
has engagement opportunities for all, thereby supporting SDG 8 which islands of the United Republic of Tanzania (URT).2 Tourism, transport,
seeks to promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, and fisheries are critical marine, lake and coastal activities, contributing
full and productive employment and decent work for all. In addition, to the national income and food security in the country. The Blue
SDG 5, gender, is essential for a blue economy and also identifies the Economy agenda has been prioritized by both the government and
status of women in coastal and maritime tourism and fisheries by partner States [9]. For example, the Revolutionary Government of
advancing gender equality and empowering all women and girls. Zanzibar has developed a Blue Economy Policy and is in the process of
While Rio’s definition of the Blue Economy was restricted to Oceans developing a Blue Economy Strategy for the Archipelago [21]. The
and Seas, and therefore relevant only to coastal states and SIDS, in Government of the United Republic of Tanzania is committed to
keeping with the topology of Africa, AU’s AIMS document includes ensuring that the Blue Economy reaches its full potential and has indi
lakes, rivers, and other internal water bodies of Africa in its maritime cated a desire to use investments in the Blue Economy as a strategy to
scope given the expansive inland water bodies that exist on the conti accelerate its post-COVID-19 and other unexpected events recovery.
nent. “Africa’s Maritime Domain (AMD)” refers to all areas and re These efforts would benefit directly from thorough socio-economic as
sources of, on, under, relating to, adjacent to, or bordering on an African sessments of their blue resources.
sea, ocean, or African lakes, intra-coastal and inland navigable water This study evaluates the value that mainland Tanzania’s blue econ
ways, including all African maritime-related activities, infrastructure, omy resources generate in support of national growth and development,
cargo, vessels and other means of conveyance. It also includes the air using the BEVTK. The BEVTK was therefore applied to mainland econ
above the African seas, oceans, lakes, intra-coastal and inland navigable omy only, using the national and international data to capture the
waterways and to the oceans’ electromagnetic spectrum as well” [46]. contribution of the Blue Economy components (e.g., economic, social,
Globally, the blue economy has an asset base of over USD 24 trillion and ecosystem).
and generates at least USD 2.5 trillion each year from the combination of The results of this study will be of interest to researchers and poli
fishing and aquaculture, shipping, tourism, and other marine-based cymakers. (i) We analyse the contribution of marine-based activities (e.
activities [44]. In Africa, the blue economy sectors generated USD 296 g., fisheries and aquaculture, transportation, offshore renewable energy,
billion with 49 million jobs in 2020 [4]. It is predicted that by 2030, and coastal tourism) and marine-related activities (e.g., seafood pro
Africa’s Blue Economy will grow to USD 405 billion and 57 million jobs, cessing, communication, marine construction, and maritime insurance)
respectively [8]. However, these are mere estimations, given that the to the economy of mainland Tanzania; (ii) we analyse the total contri
full potential of aquatic and marine ecosystems and associated resources bution of ecosystem services of the Blue Economy to mainland Tanzania;
is still not well understood globally, and on the African continent, (iii) we analyse and compare positive and negative composite social
leaving behind ecosystem value. The lack of knowledge of blue re indices and non-index indicators; and (iv) we expand the existing
sources at stake is a major gap which hinders policy development and literature with a quantitative methodology and allow for a compre
implementation on the BE towards its sustainable harnessing. hensive valuation of the Blue Economy in mainland Tanzania. More
Since BE represents a crucial and strategic entry point for economic over, the results of this study could be considered in the central
diversification and post-Covid19 socio-economic recovery, Member Government’s efforts to develop the National Ocean Governance Policy
States - African Union needs to elevate efforts in policy development and and Strategy that will guide the implementation of the blue economy in
implementation. For informed decision-making, States need an accurate the URT.
understanding of ecosystems and associated blue resources, as well as of The rest of the article is structured as followed. "The Blue Economy
the exact value of the BE sectors and their socio-economic and ecosystem Context in the Mainland Tanzania" section presents a socio-economic
contributions. Indeed, the Blue Economy-based sectors are repeatedly overview of mainland Tanzania and its marine and coastal ecosystems.
linked in the economy to many sectors and economic agents [15,19,54]. "Methodology" section describes the BEVTK and its sub-modules. "Re
Therefore, it is important to capture the links between the BE resources sults" section analyses the results of the socio-economic and ecosystem
and the rest of the economy, especially in countries where the blue contributions of BE in mainland Tanzania. The final section concludes
economy is important for the economic development, as in Tanzania [3, with key findings and policy recommendations.
33,45,52]. To this end, think-tanks and international organisations have
been quick to devise accounting mechanisms to support work on the 2. The blue economy context in the Mainland Tanzania
economic application of natural resources such as the BE resources [17,
57]. Some of these mechanisms are: Environment Satellite Accounting Blue economy activities are not new to the Mainland Tanzania.
[49], Green Accounting [18], Natural Capital Accounting [5], Ecosys Tanzania has been engaging in domestic and international ocean-based
tems Services Accounting [42], and National Economic Accounting economic activities for centuries, and has, over the years, established a
[43]. These systems allow countries to know the economic value or stock complex legal and policy framework to manage coastal and ocean re
of their natural resources. UNECA’s blue economy valuation toolkit sources, and to facilitate access to these resources in a sustainable
(BEVTK) goes a step further and allows a socio-economic and ecosystem manner, with a view of promoting economic growth.
valuation of BE resources. This toolkit complements the multisectoral When considering the range and scope of the policy and regulatory
approach based on available data from the System of National Accounts framework of BE in mainland Tanzania, it should be noted that in
(SNA) to quantify the direct and indirect contributions of the Blue Tanzania, BE is defined in line with AIMS 2050 and includes freshwater
Economy industries to the Gross Value Added (GVA) [48]. There is resources, including the lakes, and rivers, below ground water along
increasing recognition in the SNA-based studies on the need for identi with ocean and coastal ecosystems. Mainland Tanzania is endowed with
fying specific activities within the BE and BE-related industries. SNA is diverse ocean resources which lend to a variety of activities including
applied to assess ocean-based economic activities in both developed and
developing countries [3,6,10,30,38–40]. Moreover, the toolkit follows
the recommendations for policy development as defined in the Blue 2
The United Republic of Tanzania (URT) is an independent, sovereign coastal
Economy Policy Handbook for Africa [47]. Thus, BEVTK aims to guide state that includes the mainland and semi-autonomous region of Zanzibar. The
sub-regional and national in-depth socio-economic and ecological as last one consists of the two main islands of Unguja and Pemba along with
sessments of the potential contribution of the BE activities to the smaller neighbouring islands.
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A. Maskaeva et al. Marine Policy 159 (2024) 105920
fisheries [32], mariculture and aquaculture, energy production, ports, policies in mainland Tanzania is in its early stages and has already begun
coastal tourism, coastal transport, and coastal mining. These possess with the creation of a BE strategy. The creation of the national BE policy
enormous potential for regional cooperation on BE. has been discussed, but no firm stance has been taken on the matter as of
Mainland Tanzania has a coastal line of 1424 km, a territorial sea of yet. The development of Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) is a crucial
about 64,000 square kilometres, and 200-nautical-mile of EEZ area of policy issue affecting mainland Tanzania [52].
223,000 square kilometres. In fisheries context, for example, Tanzanian
EEZ lies within the richest tuna belt of the Southwest Indian Ocean [58]. 3. Methodology
According to the World Bank estimation [16], the tuna fishery in the
Tanzanian marine waters provides around 0.9% of the South-West In 3.1. UNECA Blue Economy Valuation Toolkit
dian Ocean (SWIO) region’s tuna production. However, the exploitation
of EEZs is highly dependent on foreign fleets. The revenues from In 2020, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
licensing vessels are marginal, when compared to the value and the (UNECA) commissioned the development of a Blue Economy Valuation
growing global demand for harvested tuna and tuna-like species. Annual Toolkit (BEVTK) [48]. This toolkit allows countries to assess the eco
access license fees from foreign fishing generated USD 1.35 million in nomic, social, and ecosystem services contributions (expressed in
2015–2018 [7]. Comparatively, the total annual potential catch of tuna monetary terms) that BE resources generate. Equipped with this infor
in the Tanzania’s EEZ by Distant Water Fishing Nations (DWFNs) in mation, countries can strategize on how best to optimise these Blue
recent years has reached more than 8000 metric tonnes, with a landed Economy resources for enhanced socio-economic and ecosystem
value of USD 16 million [8]. contributions.
The total inland water of the country covers about 6.5% of the total The BEVTK is a toolkit that allows the capture of the various di
land area. Inland water resources in mainland Tanzania include Lake mensions of human interactions with blue environment, including
Victoria (35,088 square kilometres), Lake Tanganyika (13,489 square ocean, lakes, rivers, etc. It can record the various types of benefits people
kilometres), Lake Nyasa (5760 square kilometres), Lake Rukwa (3000 gained from it. The three main dimensions that the toolkit focuses on
square kilometres), Lake Eyasi (1000 square kilometres), and about are:
1000 square kilometres of other small lakes. Only the four lakes (e.g.,
Victoria, Tanganyika, Nyasa, and Rukwa) together account for about 1. economic activities associated with the blue economy,
37% of the total territorial area [31]. In mainland Tanzania, the fisheries 2. ecosystem services related to the blue economy, and
industry is a major node of economic activity. Located in the African 3. social dimension of human interaction with blue economy.
Great Lake region, the country has abundant fishery resources [20,29].
Fisheries contribute to Tanzania’s economy both in terms of income and The BEVTK is flexible and comprehensive enough to represent any
employment. The sector is responsible for over 202,053 jobs, while 4.5 country’s type whether it be coastal, insular, or landlocked. Data entered
million people indirectly depend on fishery activities [20]. The sector in the toolkit determines the snapshot of the Blue Economy that will be
contributes about 1.7% to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) produced. It therefore supports the use of the most recent disaggregated
[20]. national data, usually that at International Standard Industrial Classifi
Tourism too is a key sector contributing to mainland Tanzania’s cation (ISIC) Level 2. 5
economic growth [53]. In 2019, the tourism sector was the Indicators used in the toolkit to measure the Blue Economy’s
second-largest component of GDP, with a contribution of 17%. In terms contribution is benchmarked against classifications and nomenclatures
of employment, the sector is the third-largest source of employment, systems widely accepted among international experts and compatible
with 850,000 workers [56]. Coastal tourism accounted for 1.54% of with systems used nationally (System of National Accounts, Necessary
mainland Tanzania’s GDP in 2019 [2]. Condition Analysis, System of Environment Economic Accounting).
Oil and Gas are the following sectors that can boost the Tanzanian These are:
economy. In 2020, the mining and quarrying sectors’ contribution
(including oil and natural gas) to the GDP was 6.7% [22]. Tanzania’s 1. For measuring economic activities: ISIC Nomenclature (revision 4).
natural gas reserves were estimated at 57.54 trillion cubic feet3 of which 2. For identifying ecosystem functional groups (EFGs) and measuring
82% is off-shore and 18% is deep onshore [51]. The discovery could their corresponding ecosystem services: The International Union for
amount to about USD 199.5 billion 4 worth of natural gas. Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Habitats Classification Scheme
In 2022, URT’s Government (on one hand) and global energy and (version 3.1) to describe each relevant Ecosystem and the Common
petroleum refining companies (on the other) have already signed the International Classification of Ecosystem Services or CICES Nomen
preliminary agreement for the USD 30 billion Liquefied Natural Gas clature (version 5.1) to identify the relevant ecosystem services for
(LNG) project [41]. It is estimated that after completion of LNG project, each EFG.
the domestic production of natural gas could potentially increase 3. For measuring social dimensions: Indexes from UNDP (Human
mainland Tanzania’s GDP by USD 7 billion per annum. Development Indexes such as Gini Index, Multidimensional Poverty
The five coastal regions of Mainland Tanzania namely, Tanga, Index (MPI), and Gender Inequality Index (GII)), World Bank and
Pwani, Dar es Salaam, Lindi, and Mtwara, cover about 15% of the from other internationally recognized organizations.
country’s total land area, and are home to approximately 25% of the
country’s population. According to national statistics, the five coastal In order to facilitate the comparison and the consolidation of the
regions contributed to about one-third of the National Gross Domestic collected data in each of the three modules, the BEVTK includes a utility
Product (GDP) in 2020, with Dar es Salaam leading with 28% of the GDP facility composed of historical exchange rates for each country going
[26]. However, Lindi region is ranked nationally as being the poorest back 10 years and a table of deflators by country covering the same
[25]. period. The facility also stores basic information on each country’s
In terms of a centralized framework, the process of developing BE physical and geographic characteristics, flags, national currency, GDP,
total employment, etc. The BEVTK relies on pivot tables. As such, any
3
1 Million British thermal Unit ( 1 MMBTU) = 26.8 cubic meters ( m3)
5
natural gas; 1 m3 = 35.49 cubic feet ISIC level 1 is a broad structure which is included 21 sectors. ISIC level 2 is a
4
In 2020, the average Natural Gas Price for Power Benchmarked was USD standard intermediate-level aggregation of 38 ISIC categories for internation
3.35/MMBtu [51] ally comparable SNA data.
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A. Maskaeva et al. Marine Policy 159 (2024) 105920
errors in the summary data produced at the end of the assessment, will compensation indicates the total wages and benefits paid to employees,
be consequence of any likely input errors. for BE-related activities.
The SUTs used in this section serves two purposes. Firstly, it helps in
understanding the structure of the Tanzanian economy in the reference
3.2. Data sources used in the BEVTK analysis year 2015; secondly, it provides a database for the BEVTK model.
The SUTs base year 2015 for Mainland Tanzania comprises of 66
3.2.1. Economic data sources products, divided across 66 industries. However, Mainland Tanzania has
The benchmark data, which were used to calibrate the BEVTK eco not updated SUTs since 2015. As mentioned afore, in 2015, Mainland
nomic module, were arranged in the form of a Supply-Use-Tables, which Tanzania developed SUTs to support its national accounting system.
is a system of accounts recording all transactions between agents in the These contained ISIC Level 2 data for most of sectors. Table 2 below
economy. Supply and Use Tables (SUTs) is the internationally recom apply the National Accounts data and 2015 SUT to the example of the
mended framework consistent with the System of National Accounts transportation sector, and show how extra detail can help in estimating
(SNA) [34] used for the benchmarking of GDP by production, expen BE contribution to the economy.
diture, and income approaches. SUTs consist of two interlinked tables: Water transport is associated with the marine tourism sector [2].
Moreover, water transport is indirectly linked to the construction sector,
1. the Supply Table; which develops infrastructure and port facilities [37,46].
2. the Use Table. For the purpose of this study, the main adjustment was made to the
labour compensations of the original structure of the 2015 Mainland
The Supply Table describes how goods and services become available Tanzanian SUTs. The labour categories were split into males and females
in an economy during a certain period of time. Products are either using the Integrated Labour Force Survey (ILFS) report for 2014 [23]
produced in the domestic industry or imported. that gives the earnings by activities for both male and female workers in
The Use Table shows how goods and services are used in the econ blue economy-related sector. Employment was divided by gender (male
omy during a certain period of time. Products can be used either as in and female) in each sector. 2014’s ILFS provide data that identified
termediate consumption or as final use. proportions of male and female in different sectors. This enabled the
In an attempt to capture the most recent and most reliable data for mapping of both gender groups to value addition. In terms of dis
input into the BEVTK, this study relied extensively on data from the counting, the estimates employed were as accurate as possible, and in
national statistics and international databases (Table 1). keeping with constraints present.
To avoid inconsistency between different databases, the latest 2015 The 2015 SUTs provide the GVA figures required to measure the
version of the Supply and Use Tables (SUTs) were used as the baseline contribution of a BE related industry to the country’s GDP. It represents
for Mainland Tanzania’s BE estimates [24]. Supply and Use the value of an industry’s output, less the cost of inputs used up in
Tables include information on Gross Value Added (GVA) data and production, and can be measured as the sum of compensation of em
employment compensation for each BE-related sector. While GVA in ployees, taxes on production and imports less subsidies, and gross
dicates the overall sector’s contribution to the GDP, employment operating surplus [24]. Additional data regarding the BE contribution to
value-added and employment in the manufacturing sectors were ob
Table 1 tained from the 2016 Mainland Tanzania Annual Survey of Industrial
Data sources used for the completion of the BEVTK for Tanzania Mainland. Production [27]. Wage and employment data was fetched from the 2014
Data source Data description Statistics Data type
Integrated Labour Force Survey for the Mainland [23].
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A. Maskaeva et al. Marine Policy 159 (2024) 105920
Organization (LVFO), Aqua-Farms Organization, World Wildlife Fund services, and its valuation in mainland Tanzania were among the major
(WWF), School of Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Technology (SoAF) of problems observed. This may be due to inadequate institutional capac
the University of Dar-es-Salaam (UDSM), Sokoine University of Agri ities focusing on climate change. This is despite Tanzania’s dependence
culture (SUA) and Tanzania Fisheries Research Institute (TAFIRI). on climate-sensitive sectors such as fisheries, coastal tourism, and
However, it is important to note that there is limited data sources agriculture for economic growth. Most of the reliable data present in
available on most ecosystem services and their estimated values. Addi Tanzania is old and vague and thus cannot be used due to changes in the
tionally, comprehensive data on Tanzania’s inland water bodies is geography of the country over time. Moreover, Tanzania’s data collec
lacking. tion is not centralized, making it challenging to find and acquire the
Despite the immense wealth of natural capital available in Tanzania, data.
there is a dearth of updated and detailed records of these resources Most of BE’s ecosystem values used in this assessment are from
particularly with regard to water bodies and their components. To better foreign sources and do not bear a countrywide perspective. Hence, they
understand and utilize marine resources, the Intergovernmental vary and lack a proper standardized value that could be used in overall
Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC-UNESCO) has been estimation.
encouraging Marine Spatial Planning (MSP). To this end, the National Although it is difficult to capture data about natural capital and
Conservancy is currently doing a pre-feasibility study in Tanzania [52]. ecosystems in the BEVTK, doing so will lead to greater recognition of the
The outcome of the project will provide baseline information for con significance of ecosystem services. Natural capital assessments demon
ducting a full MSP for mainland Tanzania. strate that by enhancing aquatic resources through sustainable man
Blue economy presents a vast array of opportunities for sustainable agement, the coastal economy could thrive.
development and economic growth, but its full potential can only be
realized with the support of innovative financing mechanisms, which 3.2.3. Social data sources
can happen only if ecosystem data and information is readily available The social data for used in the BEVTK was mostly obtained from
where. Climate financing, blue financing, blended financing, and green global databases. The social metric estimates used in the social com
debt swaps are increasingly being recognized as viable alternatives for posite indicator of the BEVTK are sourced from United Nations Devel
funding blue economy initiatives, and their potential profitability opment Programme (UNDP) and World Bank. This study uses social data
cannot be overlooked. One of the most promising areas of investment is from the United Nations Human Development Report 2020 to empiri
in blue carbon ecosystems. These ecosystems, which include mangroves, cally examine inequality in BE sectors. Other social data metric used are
seagrasses, and salt marshes, are not only vital habitats for marine those from the Human Development Index, Education index, Maritime
species but also play a crucial role in mitigating climate change. Blue security, Unemployment rate, Gender Inequality Index, etc.
carbon ecosystems can sequester up to four times as much carbon as In recent years, Tanzania has been, and still is, one of the best per
terrestrial forests, making them an essential asset in the fight against forming economies in East Africa. This is reflected in the improvement of
global warming. However, the protection and restoration of these eco its Human Development Index (HDI) [13]. Between 1990 and 2019, the
systems require significant investments, and this is where financing HDI value for Tanzania increased from 0.368 to 0.529, which is above
mechanisms for blue carbon and blue bonds initiatives come in. the average of 0.513 for countries in the low human development [50].7
By assessing the potential contribution of financing and protecting However, the country faces inequalities – including gender inequalities.
blue carbon ecosystems, Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) can Based on the official statistical report [25], there is a gender gap in both
identify profitable investment opportunities while also promoting economic participation and in income in Tanzania.
environmental sustainability. This approach benefits both small-scale Tanzania, like other developing countries, has a large population,
initiatives like Marine Protected Areas as well as larger community- and over 65% of the population depends on agriculture and agriculture-
level projects. With proper financing, these initiatives can create sus related activities as the primary source of employment and food. Most
tainable livelihoods for coastal communities while also preserving women work in agriculture, but as unpaid labourers, and earning less
important habitats for marine life. than men. Only a few of them hold land rights. Women in all areas (rural
Another area where new financing concepts are making significant and urban), and at all education levels, have lower labour participation
strides is in the self-sustaining management of Marine Protected Areas rates than men. In order to capture the gender dimension in BE, it was
(MPAs). Blue Finance Organization,6 for instance, is addressing the agreed that changes in men’s and women’s employment and their
financial sustainability of MPAs by partnering with governments to earnings over time be considered. This will contribute to progress on
manage these areas with both social economic and environmental sus SDG 5.
tainability in mind. This approach enables the creation of long-term
financing solutions that ensure the financial viability of MPAs while 4. Results
also promoting sustainable fishing practices and preserving marine
biodiversity. 4.1. Estimation of Mainland Tanzania Blue Economy using the BEVTK
Furthermore, blended financing models that combine different
sources of funding, including public and private investments, can pro The data extracted from the sources listed in Table 1 was used to
vide even more opportunities for sustainable blue economy develop populate the BEVTK for Mainland Tanzania. In many instances, how
ment. This approach leverages the strengths of different financing ever, the data required elements of discounting8 to reflect each activity’s
sources to create synergies that enable the implementation of large-scale relevance to, or reliance upon, the BE. This section presents how the data
blue economy projects. was used for the BE and discusses the reliability of the data. It also in
While it is also fortunate that numerous governmental and NGOs are troduces the simulation results on the economic, social and ecosystem
engaged in monitoring and research projects pertaining to the nation’s modules. The base year is 2015, and the simulated results were
natural capital, however, often, this results in organizations carrying out
comparable tasks without using a consistent methodology or a central
ized repository for data management, making most of the information 7
For example, in Burundi, the average HDI rate in 2020 is 0.431, and in
not to be interoperable.
South Sudan, the HDI score in 2020 was at 501.
Limited data available along a ten-year frame on the ecosystem, 8
Discounting is the process of converting a value received in a future time
period to an equivalent value received in the present.
6
https://blue-finance.org/
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A. Maskaeva et al. Marine Policy 159 (2024) 105920
compared to the Business-as-Usual (BAU)9 path of each module to When the LNG project is completed, BE’s contribution to mainland
determine the shock effects. Tanzania’s GDP can double due to an increase in the domestic produc
tion of natural gas. Among the blue economy subsectors, those leading
the contribution were: retail trade with about 27.12% of blue economy
4.2. Economic module contribution, followed by coastal tourism with around 9.57% of
contribution, transportation with 2.74% and, fisheries and aquaculture
Economic data was discounted as in time value according to esti with around 3.55%. The crop sector has been included in the BE eval
mates of each industry’s reliance on the BE. The calculation of appor uation to account for the irrigation activity. It should be noted, that the
tionment of general data to find BE components for some industries was contribution of BE-related sectors was estimated based on direct (e.g.,
relatively straightforward, but for others, it was more difficult. For fisheries and aquaculture) and indirect (e.g., retail trade, construction
example, ISIC code I related to “Accommodation and food service ac sectors, and etc.) linkages [55]. Moreover, the contribution of BE-related
tivities” comprised primarily of tourism values. The 2015 SUTs for sectors depends on estimated share of activity’s GVA attributable to BE.
Mainland Tanzania data included more detailed tourism figures which While the fisheries sub-sector is the main sector in BE context, according
were used to discount the industries’ total GVA value realistically, ( i.e., to [38], it made a relatively low contribution to the GVA generated by
making sure that the value of tourism service in BE was not less than the BE. This can be largely explained by several facts such as climate change
reported tourism value, and not much higher either). For other ISIC impacts on water system [29], inadequate infrastructure and high
codes, such as “F-Construction” sector, estimates were less accurate post-harvest fish losses [22], and dominance of small-scale fisheries
because these sectors are not directly associated with BE. Table 3 il [20]. Fishing activities in Tanzania are gendered, fishermen being the
lustrates the output of an application of the economic data of Mainland main actors and women are involved only in processing and marketing
Tanzania into the BEVTK. the fish.
In 2020, the GDP of Tanzania Mainland was estimated at USD 65 Table 4 presents the sectoral composition of total wages, including
billion [14]. The Blue Economy contributed USD 7.2 billion to value total employment generated by blue economy sectors in mainland
added (GVA) in 202010 and accounted for 11.1% of the GDP (Table 3). Tanzania. The coastal tourism sub-sectors (related to ISIC categories
namely accommodation and food services, air, land, and water trans
Table 3 port, and administrative and support services) are among the significant
Gross Value Added (GVA in USD) generated by the Blue Economy in mainland contributors to the total employment generated by BE. These sectors
Tanzania 2020. provide job for about 2.7 million people related to BE via forward and
Economic Activity by ISIC GVA by sector As a % of Total backward linkages with other sectors of the economy. These results are
Section generated by BE GVA generated by in the same line with the observation of [11], which analyses the impact
(USD) BE
of COVID-19 on the tourism sector in Tanzania.
G - Wholesale and retail trade; 1955,667,836 27.12 % In terms of the gender distribution of employed persons in the sectors
repair of motor vehicles and
associated with BE, Fig. 1 shows that the wholesale and retail trade
motorcycles
F - Construction 993,821,562 13.78%
sector is the most female-intensive labour activity (53.5%). Accommo
C - Manufacturing 387,796,718 5.38% dation and food service activities follow with a share of labour allocated
I - Accommodation and food 371,990,573 5.16%
service activities
N - Administrative and support 96,438,910 1.34% Table 4
service activities Shares of total employment and total wages generated by blue economy sectors
K - Financial and insurance 199,254,371 2.76% in mainland Tanzania, 2020.
activities
Economic Activity by ISIC Section as a % of Total as a % of Total
J - Information and 159,925,716 2.22%
Employment Wages generated by
communication
generated by BE BE
H - Transportation and storage 197,775,791 2.74%
A - Agriculture, forestry and 2076,524,754 28.8% Wholesale and retail trade; repair of 7.4 40.66
fishing motor vehicles and motorcycles
O - Public administration and 216,358,238 3.0% Accommodation and food service 2.3 4,08
defence; compulsory social activities
security Transportation and storage 3.3 9.39
S - Other service activities 42,599,439 0.59% Agriculture, forestry and fishing 78.2 6.47
E - Water supply; sewerage, waste 185,867,410 2.58% Education, Human health and 2.9 6.69
management and remediation Social Services
activities Other service activities 0.5 2.03
B - Mining and quarrying 135,036,293 1.87% Manufacturing 1.4 3.52
D - Electricity, gas, steam and air 75,991,306 1.05% Administrative and support service 1.0 1.18
conditioning supply activities
R - Arts, entertainment and 23,641,185 0.33% Construction 1.1 6.19
recreation Financial and insurance activities 0.2 5.0
Total 7209,835,685 100% Public administration and defense; 0.7 6.24
compulsory social security
Source: BEVTK estimation Mining and quarrying 0.1 2.7
Electricity, gas, steam and air 0.3 2.46
conditioning supply
Arts, entertainment and recreation 0.04 0.26
Information and communication 0.2 1.63
9
Baseline scenario that examines the consequences of continuing current Water supply; sewerage, waste 0.4 1.48
trends in BE. management and remediation
10 activities
BEVTK extrapolates value data for the period 2015–2020 using the price
Total 100 100
index method to deflate nominal GDP. Moreover, the GDP and other macro
economic variables (e.g., GNI, deflators, and labour force) were pre-loaded in Source: BEVTK estimation
the toolkit for each East African country and for a 10 -year period, between Note: Table is based on formal employment statistics in Mainland Tanzania.
2010 and 2020 so that all the 2020 values were not adjusted, they are the actual Agricultural sector excludes informal employment. All people engaged in agri
data recorded by the UNDP. cultural activities considered as employed.
6
A. Maskaeva et al. Marine Policy 159 (2024) 105920
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
B C D F G H I K N O P S
Fig. 1. Shares of males and females employed in the blue economy sectors in mainland Tanzania, 2020. Notes: B - Mining and quarrying; C – Manufacturing; D -
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply; I - Accommodation and food service activities; F – Construction; G - Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor
vehicles and motorcycles; H - Transportation and storage; K - Financial and insurance activities; N - Administrative and support service activities; O - Public
administration and defense; compulsory social security; P - Education, Human health and Social Services; S - Other service activities.
Source: Estimation based on data from 2015 ILFS of Mainland Tanzania.
7
A. Maskaeva et al. Marine Policy 159 (2024) 105920
F3.1 - Large
reservoirs, 1.5%
104.24
F2.2 - Small Bn USD
permanent
freshwater lakes,
0.6% F2.1 - Large
F2.6 - Permanent permanent
salt and soda lakes, freshwater lakes,
1.7% 74.9%
Fig. 2. Blue economy contribution of each type of ecosystems in Mainland Tanzania, 2020.
Source: BEVTK estimation.
rate of 4.8 per cent per annum [28]. The 2020 PHC revealed that the Tanzania is presented in Table 6.
Tanzanian population is characterized by a young age structure with The social module comprises indicators with positive and negative
49.1 per cent of the total population below 18 years, reflecting a high outcomes. Table 6 includes four social groups with positive outcomes.
fertility rate in the recent past. The Tanzanian population is predomi The first group "Poverty, Nutrition and Education" includes Education
nantly rural, with 65.6 per cent of the population, and about 34.4 per Index. The second group "Human Development and inequality" esti
cent living in urban areas. mates by the Human development index. The third group "Business
Information for Mainland Tanzania was complemented by global environment" includes a positive indicator - Ease of doing business. The
data mentioned in Table 2. The coastal welfare11 components were last group "Maritime security" comprises estimated social indicators
obtained from Stable Seas report.12 The social module for Mainland related to the Blue economy infrastructure and Coastal welfare [34,35].
The Composite Social Index Value of BE is at 48.64. This indicates
Table 6 that the BE contributes positively to the social development of the
Relative scores of the preliminary social indicators with a positive outcome for mainland Tanzania. The value of this index is higher than the average
Mainland Tanzania combined BE, 2020. value for East African countries. This index combines all social in
Social category / dimension / Social Indicator Social Indicator (East
dicators used in the model such as Education index, HDI, Business
indicator Value Africa average) Environment Index, Maritime Security Index, and Coastal Welfare. An
average of the overall score of BE contribution to each social dimension
P - Poverty, Nutrition, Education 69.10 44.41
H - Human Development & Inequality 52.90 42.37 reveals that BE has a positive impact.
B - Business Environment 54.46 49.23 URT Human Development Index is 52.9 while the East African
M - Maritime Security 45.87 44.27 average same indicator is 42.37. HDI for mainland Tanzania and its
M1 - Blue Economy 41.00 41.07 region such as Zanzibar increased from 44.2 points in 1994–52.9 points
M102 - Adjusted Net Savings 62.74 58.08
Component
in 2020. For example, the global average in 2020 based on 185 countries
M101 - Blue Economy Score 38.22 36.94 is 72.3 points. The coastal areas cannot produce enough food to feed its
M103 - Climate Vulnerability 53.50 55.01 population and must purchase food from outlying areas of the country
Component [12]. As a result, poverty indicators in the coastal regions of Tanzania
M104 - Fisheries Component 27.75 31.78
are way above the national average levels.
M105 - Marine And Coastal Tourism 27.00 41.43
Component Another estimated social indicator is the coastal welfare. It’s score
M106 - Maritime Transportation and 53.21 48.73 (68.51) is higher than the East African average rate (60.66). Coastal
Shipping Component Welfare,13 as measured in the Maritime Security Index,14 includes se
M107 - Natural Gas Proved Reserves 0.20 0.20 curity at a nationwide level as well as for coastal regions. The indicator
M108 - Port Quantity Indicator 15.99 13.24
M109 - Port Services and Quality 90.43 84.23
accounts for components such as the number of fatal conflict events,
Indicator homicide rates, Human Development Index scores, infant mortality
M2 - Coastal Welfare 67.75 58.64 rates, and measures of artisanal fishing opportunities.
M201 - Coastal Welfare Score 68.51 60.66 The social module of BEVTK can also generate social indicators
M202 - Artisanal Fishing Goal 67.00 56.63
associated with negative outcomes (Table 7). For example, the youth
Composite Social Index value 48.64 44.50
and overall unemployment rates in Tanzania are 12.2% and 9%
Source: BEVTK estimation based on based on New Global Multidimensional respectively. In Eastern African countries, these rates are lower at 9.9%
Poverty Index 2020
13
Stable Seas 2021. Challenges and Solutions for Maritime Security in the
Indian Ocean. Policy Brief. https://www.stableseas.org/post/challenges-and-
11
Coastal welfare as social welfare is a type of government support intended solutions-for-maritime-security-in-the-indian-ocean
14
to ensure that the coastal area population can meet basic human needs such as Stable Seas. (2020). Maritime Security Index | Mapping Maritime Security.
healthcare, education, infrastructure, housing, and etc. Retrieved March 2021, from Stable Seas Maritime Security Index: https://www.
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Stable Seas Maritime Security Index: Codebook Version 3.0, 2020 Edition stableseas.org/issue-areas/overview
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